LJ wrote:

Chances on a deal are increasing as Rees-Mogg starts to make a turn in its tone. Basically they're trying to move in such a way that they can sell a deal to their followers.

Indeed,
the Tories seem to have decided that there's no way they can have their 'no deal' departure, so they have to have a deal now anyway given the exit date is nearing.
Since they can't suddenly accept the deal TM brought to Parliament 3 times and which was vehemently objected by a large fraction of theirs, yet there aren't 20 different ways to solve the NI conondrum either, their plan is basically to revert back to the original idea from the EU (and to which they initially agreed albeit reluctantly): give away NI in all but name!

Remember this was the EU's starting offer and it was initially accepted by TM until her then all important supply and confidence partner the DUP objected to it, after which she embarked on a painstaking journey to find an alternative which was disliked by her own party to the point they voted against it 3 times… and forced her out.

Now that BoJo has no majority anyway and thus the DUP has become largely irrelevant to him, his thinking seems to be leading him to something 'no British PM could ever do' (dixit TM): accept a custom border INSIDE the UK!

Meanwhile, further leaks are slowly starting to show just how quickly the UK is giving in in Brussels:
- in the original proposal from BoJo to the EU from last week, the common custom territory for NI would have to be renewed every 4 years by the NI assembly (and the DUP would thus have a veto over it), it is now said this provision has been dropped completely: no more DUP veto!
- the deal would have to be enshrined into a seperate piece of international law first, meaning the UK can not unilaterally renegate on it, later...
- in parallel, British negotiators are said to be more preoccupied with talking about changing the modalities (as in: 'extending') of the transitional phase which would be secured as a consequence of agreeing to a deal, than to the deal itself now: have they been given the timid instructions to basically accept it all?
- Finally, since everything has to be enshrined into legal texts, law and even international treaties, an extension is very likely: the British government has sent out J.Hunt to softly prepare yet another U-turn on that front too in radio interviews and the press…
- no exit on Oct 31st, but a 'technical extension' suddenly seems to be acceptable to BoJo and he'll claim the UK will have left 'in spirit'.
- BoJo has been calling up the French President as well as other government leaders today to beg them to speed up the ratification process at home in order to keep the extension 'as short as possible'...but obviously the French and others will take their time, if only to make sure Brexiteers are once again publically humiliated by having to ask for yet another extension first in the most humble way.

Somebody has started to eat a lot of humble pie over the weekend: does he want his own surrender bill passed?

And it is now said to be secured: BoJo kneels for the EU and 'in principle' accepts a legal customs border down the Irish Sea!

Basically a total surrender to the EU's initial demands then!

Unbelievable U-turn.

Anyway, the EU sees this deal no longer as a backstop, but as the end state, so it will have to be turned into a treaty text... expect a significant extension of UK's EU membership.

Oh, and it seems the Level Playing Field clause from the political declaration will also move to this treaty text, just so as to tie the Tories hands, forever...

Yes, that's what happens when you try to mess too much with the EU and demonstrate your unreliability!

ROTFL

sabenapilot wrote:

- no exit on Oct 31st, but a 'technical extension' suddenly seems to be acceptable to BoJo and he'll claim the UK will have left 'in spirit'.

You make is sound too negative. The correct spin shoud be "We [UK] have left the EU as promised and we have to overcome some technicallities which ensure we can be a sovereign country outside the EU". Sounds much more positive than "no exit on Oct 31st".

1 this thread seems to have been giving better advice about the outcome then most other sources of information the last 3 years including uk government, daily express, erg etc.

After TM disaster the only thing needed was a true believer in no10!

So.... NI (Belfast) is about to become the new financial hub power for the UK and linking the EU?


Tugg

In 6 hours we will know. A border in the irish sea or no deal

If I understand it correctly NI's customs and single market status may not apply directly to services. Yet beings ROI is in the EU there could be workarounds. Clarification welcomed.

Dutchy wrote:

olle wrote:

In 6 hours we will know. A border in the irish sea or no deal

No. We will not know if a no-deal will go through if this is rejected by the Johnson government.

The Tories seem to think that a 'no deal' departure won't have happened by October 31st.

Their draft election leaflet leaked out: one line reads "Farage can't deliver Brexit, but he can deliver even more delay".

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... pened.html

There you have it, cancel the Brexit parties for the end of this month.

No one with half a brain had any planned anyway.

19 minutes to go.

soo... looks like nothing, so far.

Why was PM Varadkar not given a prime spot in the negotiations from the start? Seems he has/had some good input in the final stretch.

Dieuwer wrote:

Why was PM Varadkar not given a prime spot in the negotiations from the start? Seems he has/had some good input in the final stretch.

He always had a prime spot providing input to Michel Barnier in the negotiations based on Ireland's special vulnerability, but the UK ignored him and Ireland's legitimate interests for the most part.

Klaus wrote:

soo... looks like nothing, so far.

They're still talking.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50063022

The game is obvious, put down the border in the Irish sea and deal with the way to silence the minority that the DUP is.

Dutchy wrote:

From the article:

On Tuesday evening, meetings were held at Downing Street with backbench MPs and leaders of the DUP.

After a 90-minute meeting with the prime minister, the DUP said "it would be fair to indicate gaps remain and further work is required".

Why is BJ so hang up on the DUP? He has lost his majority anyway, so he is not dependent on them anymore. If he wants to get a deal through, he needs MP's from other parties, so why not widen the scope?

You can also read in it that Boris is trying to find a way to sell his deal to the DUP. If he cannot, he'll has to choose and it will be interesting what his choice will be (my bet is that he'll go for the deal as this would be more beneficial for him and he doesn't care about others anyway).

It's obvious this deal is pretty much the same as the first one TM brought home, the only difference is Brexiteers can't blame a remainer for underachieving, plus they know a 'no deal' departure just won't be allowed to happen by Parliament, so they will take it after all and drop the hyperbolic retohoric about vaselage and breaking up the Union: the ERG suddenly talks about a 'tolerable deal' whereas before 'no Conservative and Unionist could ever accept this'.

Problem is, the DUP still sees this for what it is (a break up of the UK's domestic market) , and still opposes it, so it's difficult for the Tories to explain their sudden U-turn to their voters, as they've always led them to believe the Union was high on their priorities, whereasthe same day it was really just their excuse to push the country towards an ever harder form of Brexit ever since the referendum happened.
Leave
I think BoJo is looking back over his shoulders to see if:
- His own voters forgive him the U-turn
- what the polls would be in case of the Tories signing up to this deal and ditching the DUP.
Because remember once this is sealed there's going to be an election and despite their lead at the polls, the Tories are -according to several projections- still short of a working majority, so they'd need the DUP once more since there's no alternative for them: SNP has already rules it out, and the LibDems want another referendum...

Imagine the scenario where Bojo ditches the DUP and concludes the deal with the EU, after which a technical extension follows during which elections are held. The Tories come out as first, but have no majority and the DUP doesn't want to rule with them anymore... then it's hello to a Labour/SNP or Labour/LibDem government, both of which will organise a referendum on the deal (the EU will extend further to accomodate such a referendum), and possible no Brexit at all even... and an SNP backed government would probably have a second referendum on Scottish independence too, possible on the same day even.
Where would that leave BoJo and the Tories?


.

I assume nobody has seen the actual proposal. At least I haven't.

I don't quite understand how this deal could be seen to be about the same as the TM deal when there are fundamental differences. In this BoJo deal there is a regulatory and customs border at the Irish Sea when in TM deal there was no regulatory or customs border anywhere. In TM deal there was frictionless trade across all borders including Dover and in BoJo deal with the regulatory and customs differences there is going to be a lot of friction in trade across Dover because now Britain is not aligned with EU in regulations or customs. The BoJo deal includes at least half of the horrors of what no-deal means to businesses and the same people who oppose no-deal are going to oppose this too. I cannot see this passing the parliament as DUP is also not happy with this. It is only the radical no-deal-tories who are going to love this BoJo "deal" because for them this is almost as good as no-deal. There are just not enough of them. The one improvement now is that this does not violate GFA but I cannot see that this is a point which is going to bring a lot of votes in parliament by itself.

Or maybe I have seriously misunderstood something.

TM's first deal was pretty much what the EU27 had proposed, namely pretty much the current one.

Only because the DUP forced TM to renege on her already given consent that was then reluctantly changed by the EU27 to encompass the entire UK in the compliant zone, but that was then still rejected by the hardcore leavers.

So they are now back at where the EU27 had originally started, effectively.

Now EU says it is to o late for any deal to be considered during the weekend. So 2 options: Extension again or no deal.

olle wrote:

Now EU says it is to o late for any deal to be considered during the weekend. So 2 options: Extension again or no deal.

Problem is with the political inmates (like BJ) running the asylum, a 'no deal' is becoming more likely. I hope any MP or other UK politician who goes along with a 'no deal' Brexit loses their next election and replaced with someone with competence.

sabenapilot wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

olle wrote:

In 6 hours we will know. A border in the irish sea or no deal

No. We will not know if a no-deal will go through if this is rejected by the Johnson government.

The Tories seem to think that a 'no deal' departure won't have happened by October 31st.

Their draft election leaflet leaked out: one line reads "Farage can't deliver Brexit, but he can deliver even more delay".

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... pened.html

There you have it, cancel the Brexit parties for the end of this month.

That's a funny one, and smart. What Farage would say (already said), you say it about him instead. Like Trump accusing others of doing all the things he himself does.

ltbewr wrote:

olle wrote:

Now EU says it is to o late for any deal to be considered during the weekend. So 2 options: Extension again or no deal.

Problem is with the political inmates (like BJ) running the asylum, a 'no deal' is becoming more likely. I hope any MP or other UK politician who goes along with a 'no deal' Brexit loses their next election and replaced with someone with competence.

I think BoJo has opened himself up an opportunity, but also a liability, with this "almost deal". Clearly this is the best Brexit possible, and despite being "isolated" Northern Ireland will not suffer that much, at least less than with the other options. So the opportunity is to pass this, sell it to the people, which he's able to do, and then win an election on having delivered Brexit;

The liability is twofold, either the deal can't pass parliament, then the Brexit party will hurt the Tories. Or the deal is passed, but then shenanigans happen, and a no deal Brexit ensues. Not only the disaster of no deal will be on BoJo, but with a deal so close, it would be very embarrassing politically.

Ertro wrote:

I assume nobody has seen the actual proposal. At least I haven't.

The content of the latest proposal is leaked, heavily discussed and well understood: it's basically back to the original proposal of the EU, in which NI was carved out of the UK and brought in full regulatory and custom alligment with the RoI and thus the EU...

TM accepted that, but changed course after the DUP went ballistic over the idea, only to loose herself in endless discussions on just how the UK could still have an independent trade policy if the entire UK had to be kept in regulatory and custom allignment with the EU as a substitute to the NI backstop.

Ertro wrote:

In this BoJo deal there is a regulatory and customs border at the Irish Sea when in TM deal there was no regulatory or customs border anywhere. In TM deal there was frictionless trade across all borders including Dover and in BoJo deal with the regulatory and customs differences there is going to be a lot of friction in trade across Dover because now Britain is not aligned with EU in regulations or customs. The BoJo deal includes at least half of the horrors of what no-deal means to businesses.

Indeed, this deal is quite a bad deal for the UK and definitely worse than TM's final 'best possible deal', but that's none of the EU's business, is it? They just look at their own interests!

The EU wins A LOT:
diplomatically (the UK was going to play the diffferent memberstates against each other… well that turned out quite differently, didn't it?),
financially (40BN)
pollitically (the demonstration of solidarity and unity throughout is something which has been noticed throughout Europe)
economically (the transition phase will freeze everything for years to come… expect future extensions on that too, as this was supposed to be the easy part, remember?)

The UK... well, it all but gives up NI and secures a transition period in which it turns itself into a EU vassal state, officially for just 2 years, but you can expect further extensions to that as well, accompanied by the same political infighting as we've seen so far.

How will bojo get anything thru parliament without majority? How come he is still pm?

And the Scottish are going to court again

Lawyers to try to stop Boris Johnson putting Brexit deal before MPs
Legal action to be lodged in Scotland on basis withdrawal agreement contravenes law

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... before-mps

olle wrote:

How will bojo get anything thru parliament without majority? How come he is still pm?

Couldn't un amendement to agree the terms of the deal, freeze it, then put it down to a people vote to confirm ratification make it pass ?

Dutchy wrote:

To deal or not to deal, that's the question.

Revoke or no deal is the question. Any deal (BRINO) is pointless, leave means leave. BRINO hands over the keys, the opppsite of what the brexiteer dummies campaigned for. (The fact we already have what they're campaigning for is another matter).

A101 wrote:

And the Scottish are going to court again

Rightly so, forming internal international borders within the UK is unconstitutional and contrary to a wide variety of acts.
It's an utterly disgusting move from Johnson.

And we have deal

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50079385

Well a deal has supposedly been reached, but dosnt look like it will pass, wondercwhen they will release it in full

Brexit: Boris Johnson says he has secured deal with EU but DUP says position remains same – live news

[twoid][/twoid]

A101 wrote:

Well a deal has supposedly been reached, but dosnt look like it will pass, wondercwhen they will release it in full

Brexit: Boris Johnson says he has secured deal with EU but DUP says position remains same – live news

You can bet that the EU will make it a "take it or leave it" offer, which will signal to Labour that it can't get anything better (though it's indeed a worse agreement for the UK). This means, reject the deal, and it's no-deal Brexit. Boris will congratulate himself of getting a deal done (though it's probably worse than what May negotiated) and how well he is as a PM. He doesn't have much too loose. If Parliament rejects, he gets his hard - Brexit (as he doesn't need to send the letter to the EU as there is a deal). If Parliament approves he sees himself as the savior of the UK. Thus in both situations he's the King dealmaker (at least in his view).

Note that the EU takes a risk with this deal as it has a big chance of not getting it through Parliament (and thus resulting in a no deal Brexit). The EU couldn't say no. One may argue that the EU has fallen into a trap designed to get a no deal Brexit by Boris agreeing to a deal of which he knows may not succeed in Parliament. However, I doubt that the EU would not enter this agreement without exploring this option. Moreover, we've come to a point that decisions in Brexit have to be taken. It's now up to the UK Parliament to decide what's the worst, this deal or a no deal Brexit.

BTW well played by the UK government (and the EU).

Maybe BoJo will finally call the DUP bluff....

What Labour wants is close alignment with the EU. Since the UK will be in close alignment for some years even if that deal is signed, Labour will have the opportunity, if it takes power, to negotiate with the EU to stay that way (probably paying for access to the single market, like Norway).

With that said, there is a lot of politicking going on. Aside from a few MPs, I can't see Labour backing any Tory deal, even one full of unicorns.

Aesma wrote:

What Labour wants is close alignment with the EU. Since the UK will be in close alignment for some years even if that deal is signed, Labour will have the opportunity, if it takes power, to negotiate with the EU to stay that way (probably paying for access to the single market, like Norway).

With that said, there is a lot of politicking going on. Aside from a few MPs, I can't see Labour backing any Tory deal, even one full of unicorns.

Labour have not long said they will vote against the new deal on Saturday.

I can’t help but think Corbyn is saying he will reject it because it isn’t his deal and is hoping a rejection will lead to the letter being sent and an election to follow. In other words, just using the situation to further his own agenda in an attempt to get in to power - like he has been doing all along.

Saturday will tell us how many MP’s besides those who will reject it out of hand are now on board with the new deal, particularly those who’ve said before they would now vote for a deal having rejected it in the past.

Very interested to see if Parliament will accept, since it is TM's first deal with some lipstick on: last time it was said to be totally unacceptable to:
- have a customs border inside the UK: there will be
- have EU keep control over domestic rules, tarifs and VAT regimes in (part of) Britain: there will be
- have no meaningful exit mechanism for (part of) Britain 'trapped' in: there won't be

The DUP has very clearly pointed out the factual reality of the alleged 'massive change' BoJo obtained vs simply signing up to the original backstop in their official statement on the news of a new deal today.

"All goods entering NI will be subject to the full EU customs regime and thus border checks -even those coming from the rest of the UK- unless otherwise agreed by a Joint Commitee with the EU which will decide unanimously which alternative arrangements can be accepted for any goods remaining within the internal borders of the UK."

In other words: all trade to/from NI with the rest of the UK automatically happens entirely on EU terms, unless and untill the EU approves so otherwise, for as much and as long as it wants to allow this.

"NI will have no say on whether it should enter these arrangements and once in force, these arrangements will be subject to a rolling review by simple majority in NI, thus departing from the principle of consent of both unionists and nationalists."

In other words: NI is locked into this arrangement forever basically, with no realistic way to ever exit from it.

It's the full backstop in all but name really: a lot of window dressing has been done to accommodate BoJo saying otherwise, but it very much comes down to the same thing.

A101 wrote:

Note that the EU takes a risk with this deal as it has a big chance of not getting it through Parliament (and thus resulting in a no deal Brexit). The EU couldn't say no. One may argue that the EU has fallen into a trap designed to get a no deal Brexit by Boris agreeing to a deal of which he knows may not succeed in Parliament. However, I doubt that the EU would not enter this agreement without exploring this option.

From the EU27's perspective no deal has always been an unpleasant, but still perfectly survivable option and the insane demands from Westminster would have been much worse than no deal, which is why Westminster never had any leverage that way.

No deal would be absolutely devastating to the UK itself, contrary to the distorted misrepresentation perpetrated by the Tories (and of course by the Brexit Party), but for the EU27 it is actually just one of the expected outcomes for which there is extensive preparation (much more robust than the UK's).

thus departing from the principle of consent of both unionists and nationalists.

And it is this which became the 'original sin' of party politics. And it is this which makes democracies ungovernable. And it is this (in part) which has resulted in the NI parliament (?) from forming for several years. And it is the which results in death and destruction.

frmrCapCadet wrote:

thus departing from the principle of consent of both unionists and nationalists.

And it is this which became the 'original sin' of party politics. And it is this which makes democracies ungovernable. And it is this (in part) which has resulted in the NI parliament (?) from forming for several years. And it is the which results in death and destruction.

Er... actually, majority decisions are the core of democracy, really!

Asking the republicans MP to pledge loyalty to a queen can also be seen as a way to make sure it never happens......

Klaus wrote:

frmrCapCadet wrote:

thus departing from the principle of consent of both unionists and nationalists.

And it is this which became the 'original sin' of party politics. And it is this which makes democracies ungovernable. And it is this (in part) which has resulted in the NI parliament (?) from forming for several years. And it is the which results in death and destruction.

Er... actually, majority decisions are the core of democracy, really!

Majority yes. But require the parliament to vote. We have the situation in the UK where a majority of members oppose a no-deal Brexit, but two minority blocs (on in each party) desire a Brexit. So which 'majority' are you talking about. Actually I suspect I know. You may be a foe of true democracy, loyal only the small majority of the party you prefer.

frmrCapCadet wrote:

Klaus wrote:

frmrCapCadet wrote:

And it is this which became the 'original sin' of party politics. And it is this which makes democracies ungovernable. And it is this (in part) which has resulted in the NI parliament (?) from forming for several years. And it is the which results in death and destruction.

Er... actually, majority decisions are the core of democracy, really!

Majority yes. But require the parliament to vote. We have the situation in the UK where a majority of members oppose a no-deal Brexit, but two minority blocs (on in each party) desire a Brexit. So which 'majority' are you talking about.

A majority in Stormont across unionists and republicans, as discussed above!

Actually I suspect I know. You may be a foe of true democracy, loyal only the small majority of the party you prefer.

Your own reading incomprehension is the issue here, but that based on that you're going off on a wild imaginary tangent with zero connection to reality is telling in itself.

A majority of the people of NI are opposed to Brexit. A majority of the UK parliament are opposed to a Brexit without a deal. A majority of the UK is opposed to a hard Brexit. Cynical leaders of political parties have manipulated majorities of particular parties. Boris has managed to come up with an OK deal, but the Labor buffoon is against it because it may lessen his chances to become PM (which I estimate is close to zero already).

An 'OK Deal'...

Hum...

People have voted and something has to be done, but since no flavour of Brexit was voted on, it could have been anything from Norway plus to this, or even no deal...

TM's last deal would knock off 2,1% of the UK's national income over the next 15 years
Her initial deal (with the NI backstop iso a single custom territory with the EU for the whole of the UK) would knock off 3,9% over the same period
This deal from BoJo which basically borrows from that will knock off a whopping 6,7% of GDP even, because it is much more complicated than the simple backstop znd because the FTA that should follow will be less ambitious.
Only a 'no deal' departure would have shaved off even more: 9,3%.

All figures are straight from HM's DExEU, btw.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -estimates

If you call that OK....I call that devastating.
People will feel this in their wallets, for sure as we're talking thousands of pounds a year, individually!!!