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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Oct 20, 2019 5:46 pm

ltbewr wrote:
I expect the next elections to be a real mess and many either voting out of spite or even more not voting at all out of frustration of the mess Brexit has created.


Not voting has never solved anything and may have the exact opposite of the desired effect.
 
94717
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:41 pm

Many people not voting was the start of this mess. It is always easier to vote against then for. If people accepting the positive with the negative -> had voted last time UK had probably stayed in EU. They did not go and vote in 2016 and now we are were we are.
 
94717
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Oct 20, 2019 6:43 pm

By the way thanks to Brexit I do believe that EU general public has never been so educated about EU. What we gain and what pay for the advantages.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:31 pm

scbriml wrote:
A101 wrote:
Boris is sending the Parliamentary letter unsigned, along with a second letter its going to be interesting to see how the courts interpret it.


Yes, acting like a spoiled child just like his hero Trump.

IIRC, there was plenty of legal opinion when it was first suggested, that such an action could be interpreted as contempt of court because it is against the spirit of the Benn law. We shall see.

That letter has no real legal substance anyway, though, because it is only the actual offer and then the acceptance of the extension which have binding legal effect, not this request.

The EU27 could offer an extension even without it, and the UK could accept that offer even completely without this letter, so just knowing conclusively that this letter has been sent and that the UK Parliament is behind it still gives it sufficient weight for the EU27 to consider making an extension offer, completely regardless whether Boris had signed it or not – that just goes into his personal good faith deficit account...
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:34 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
Had the EU not already previously stated if Boris failed to comply with the UK's law, the application for extension would be assumed on their part by default based on the UK law mandating that it must be made?

As tedious as the process is, the EU aren't daft enough to allow Boris and his ilk to pin the blame on them.

Quite frankly they'll (EU) be rubbing their hands with glee if Parliament pass this turd of a deal. It leaves the UK even weaker than it already is....and then Boris or whomever is in charge actually has to start the real negoiations, on the global stage.
What a mess.
"Easiest deal ever!", Utter cockwombles.

Indeed. The harsher Brexit as in this newer deal with only NI in a permanent backstop-like state but Britain cut off from the EU is less problematic for us in the end and puts Westminster even more on the defensive in new negotiations.
 
wingman
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Oct 20, 2019 9:11 pm

Can someone educate me as to why the Tories, then most everyone in the House of Commons, got up and left the room when the SNP leader started to speak the other day? She's left there with about 20 colleagues muttering about how disgraceful it all is and the master of ceremonies guy is busy giggling away while semi-chastising the people walking out. The whole thing is equally mesmerizing and incomprehensible. I land in Edinburgh next week and thought briefly about asking in the pub on my first night but keep thinking about that poor Yank in Trainspotting. And one more thing..if the Commons votes down Boris then can the EU just say off off and kick out the UK on 10-31? I'm guessing there'll be another 3 month extension but it's impossible to follow even sober.
 
Bostrom
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:04 pm

wingman wrote:
And one more thing..if the Commons votes down Boris then can the EU just say off off and kick out the UK on 10-31?


Yes, the UK can request a third extension, but it is up the council to decide. And every EU27-country has a veto on a new extension. The UK can however revoke Article 50 unilaterally.

wingman wrote:
I'm guessing there'll be another 3 month extension but it's impossible to follow even sober.


I've stopped guessing, the one thing I've learnt about the Brexit saga is to take nothing for granted because everything can happen.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Oct 20, 2019 11:25 pm

Bostrom wrote:

I've stopped guessing, the one thing I've learnt about the Brexit saga is to take nothing for granted because everything can happen.


You have got that right, I doubt even a Hollywood scriptwriter could come up with it and I liked
Wag the Dog

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rexit-deal
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:18 am

ltbewr wrote:
Now the UK is at the whims of the EU

The UK was always at the whim of the EU, even the EU told them that as a small nation negotiating with a larger body they would be at a huge disadvantage, I can't believe that the delusional folks in the UK thought that only applied to the USA and India.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:32 am

olle wrote:
Many people not voting was the start of this mess. It is always easier to vote against then for. If people accepting the positive with the negative -> had voted last time UK had probably stayed in EU. They did not go and vote in 2016 and now we are were we are.

I thought the turnout for the referendum which started the whole process was larger than the previous and prior elections.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:32 am

par13del wrote:
olle wrote:
Many people not voting was the start of this mess. It is always easier to vote against then for. If people accepting the positive with the negative -> had voted last time UK had probably stayed in EU. They did not go and vote in 2016 and now we are were we are.

I thought the turnout for the referendum which started the whole process was larger than the previous and prior elections.


Yes I believe it was the biggest since sound 92 or something, what he is referring to is that it’s not a compulsory vote whereas compulsory voting in say Australia voter turnout is generally higher than 90+%. That 25 or so % that did not vote would have made it a more pronounced margin either way if they had voted. I believe it’s high time that the UK should go to compulsory voting it never going to be 100% it’s better than what we are currently getting. I also believe in a referendum it should have been a double majority for the government to use say a majority of constituent countries in the referendum even though I technically would have lost as I voted leave.



When you compare the margin of the result (1,269,501) with the numbers that didn’t vote 12,931,817 it’s more than enough for one side to have a decisive victory, but as I have always said if you don’t vote you forfeit the right to moan about the result.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 3:05 am

A101 wrote:
.....what he is referring to is that it’s not a compulsory vote

That train left the station a long time ago, it was the first thing that the remain side latched onto after the result was in.

The Prime Minister at the time said that the government would implement the result of the vote, there is nothing in law that says the government cannot abide by its commitment nor anything in law stating that the government must / should ignore the result. Unfortunately, the house and the speaker never chose to implement such a law, they still may based on what has been taking place.

However, it still does not explain the fact that both parties stated that they would respect the vote that was not binding in the general election of 2017, for some reason, both parties seemed to think that if they chose that as an election promise it would mean defeat at the polls.
Even today, the push for a second referendum is about accepting or rejecting the deal negotiated with the EU, they may well attempt to put in a statement that if the deal is rejected remain would be the default position, in effect forcing a rejection of the results of the first referendum vote. Such wording would make it to the question as the majority of the house who made up the initial question and the current house are mostly remain supporters.

Question none of them seem to want to answer is how long the UK would have to be in the wilderness before they can apply for entry into the EU and how long it would take them to qualify for entry. Simple fact is the sooner they leave the quicker they can re-apply, after all, other than their carve outs, they are a fully compliant member of the EU.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 5:32 am

Returning to the EU would be the biggest mistake in history. The people of the UK have clearly spoken and they want out.
 
Bostrom
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:02 am

A101 wrote:
Bostrom wrote:

I've stopped guessing, the one thing I've learnt about the Brexit saga is to take nothing for granted because everything can happen.


You have got that right, I doubt even a Hollywood scriptwriter could come up with it and I liked
Wag the Dog

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... rexit-deal


If they did, the producer would probably have thrown it away for being too unrealistic.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:34 am

LJ wrote:
You forget that the EU members are getting fed up with the porcess in the UK. I can imagine that they'll not grant any extension till these is a vote on the deal. No vote on the deal = no extension. This is not good PR for UK Parliament. I fear that the UK Parliament doesn't seem to realise that it takes two to tango.


No different to people here in the UK on both sides of the argument getting fed up about it all then.

I suspect the EU might wait a few days to see how things pan out in Parliament before formally responding. I believe Starmer was claiming yesterday that Labour would support an amendment that led to the Johnson deal being put to a second referendum with the option to remain alongside. We've been told it will take approximately 22 weeks to organise a referendum.

olle wrote:
If EU declines to extend the UK membership it will probably be based on the fact that the req uest is not legally signed.

As I understand it there is no legal request for extension from UK applied so how shall EU accept it? I would never consider a document not signed as a legal binding request and if EU accepts it UK can probably interprete it as they like in the future.

I do believe that UK brexiteers will get what they whished for - a no deal.

Then on november 1 they will be back to start FTA negotiations from a very weak positions.

Brexiteers should now recognize that Germany exports more to Poland then to UK.


As much as I found it utterly childish that Boris didn't sign the letter drafted under the Benn Act, I highly doubt the EU will deem the request null and void because there's no signature given that a) Boris was required by UK law to send it, b) Sir Tim Barrow sent a signed letter at the same time confirming it was sent by law, and c) Parliament voted for Saturday's request to be a legal requirement, so the letter has the backing of UK Parliament and wouldn't change even if Boris was to suddenly quit right now and a new PM swiftly installed.

ltbewr wrote:
Now the UK is at the whims of the EU who can tell the UK to shove it, your out, no extensions but some limited arrangements to prevent short term economic disaster to remaining EU members.


Unless there's been a change in position, I suspect Ireland will be the last country out of the EU27 to decline an extension request. If the rest of the EU are genuinely standing in solidarity with Ireland, I can't see them declining a request unless Ireland has indicated it will be able to cope with no-deal.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:46 am

And it is the easy part. Wait for the very hard trade negotiation with the UK being a third country.......
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:30 pm

Klaus wrote:
That letter has no real legal substance anyway, though, because it is only the actual offer and then the acceptance of the extension which have binding legal effect, not this request.


AFAIK, the Benn Act contains a provision whereby any offer from the EU which is before and including January 31st should be accepted by the UK. Any extension offer after January 31st 2020 has to be approved by the UK Parliament. As such the letter does have some sort of legal status as by sending the letter the UK accepts any EU offer for an extension between October 31st and midnight January 31st 2020.

ltbewr wrote:
Now the UK is at the whims of the EU who can tell the UK to shove it, your out, no extensions but some limited arrangements to prevent short term economic disaster to remaining EU members.


Unless the EU proposes an extension beyond January 31st, in which case it's up to the UK Parliament.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:41 pm

Olddog wrote:
And it is the easy part. Wait for the very hard trade negotiation with the UK being a third country.......

Hopefully if it ever gets to that - I doubt it since this parliament does not appear to have a desire to run their own country - such negotiations will force them to decide the way forward for the UK economy, for the first time in 40 something years, they will have to come up with national plans that not only spend money but creates the infrastructure means for the generation of wealth.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:05 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
As much as I found it utterly childish that Boris didn't sign the letter drafted under the Benn Act, I highly doubt the EU will deem the request null and void because there's no signature given that a) Boris was required by UK law to send it, b) Sir Tim Barrow sent a signed letter at the same time confirming it was sent by law, and c) Parliament voted for Saturday's request to be a legal requirement, so the letter has the backing of UK Parliament and wouldn't change even if Boris was to suddenly quit right now and a new PM swiftly installed.

Above it all, as I said, that letter has no binding legal effect anyway – only the EU actually making an offer and then the UK officially accepting it will actually have any legal binding force.

The letter as such could be a note hand-scribbled on a soiled pub napkin and if the EU was reasonably convinced that that was indeed Boris' note it would still be good enough to think about a formal extension offer to the UK.

Of course that wouldn't engender any more trust in Boris' seriousness and reliability but at this point it would barely make any difference any more.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:12 pm

LJ wrote:
Klaus wrote:
That letter has no real legal substance anyway, though, because it is only the actual offer and then the acceptance of the extension which have binding legal effect, not this request.


AFAIK, the Benn Act contains a provision whereby any offer from the EU which is before and including January 31st should be accepted by the UK. Any extension offer after January 31st 2020 has to be approved by the UK Parliament. As such the letter does have some sort of legal status as by sending the letter the UK accepts any EU offer for an extension between October 31st and midnight January 31st 2020.

But then the EU could have made such an offer regardless of a request from Westminster at all, so the letter would still have no legal effect on its own.
 
Bostrom
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:27 pm

Maybe it's time for a new referendum to get a clear message on what the british public thinks: https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status ... 4075446272
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:58 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
As much as I found it utterly childish that Boris didn't sign the letter drafted under the Benn Act, I highly doubt the EU will deem the request null and void because there's no signature given that a) Boris was required by UK law to send it, b) Sir Tim Barrow sent a signed letter at the same time confirming it was sent by law, and c) Parliament voted for Saturday's request to be a legal requirement, so the letter has the backing of UK Parliament and wouldn't change even if Boris was to suddenly quit right now and a new PM swiftly installed.


Indeed, it's a silly and very childish trick to be able to say on the campaign trail he didn't sign the letter.... even though he did send it, and he did request it...

In the commons he was already playing semantics the evening before, saying he would never 'negotiate' an extension with the EU...
Sure sounds very brave, but reality is there's no need to negotiate at all: the UK can only beg the EU for an extension.
Boris is all mouth, but very little meaningful words really.

BTW- something the British press hasn't been reporting about as they were too obsessed with his 3 lettres game and how smart/silly it was depending the side the journalist was on, but the EU has meanwhile confirmed 'good reception' to the PM of his lettre containing the formal extension request through the usual diplomatic channels, meaning the unsigned lettre is an OFFICIAL one for them and it is being considered. No need to sign it since it's on the official briefpaper, with his name under it, sent through the official channels, so it's a real demand to extend.

Olddog wrote:
And it is the easy part. Wait for the very hard trade negotiation with the UK being a third country.......

Indeed, this was supposed to be the easy part!
But the rest would be so smooth too, because the UK would start from a position of full allignment, remember? ;)

I think Brexiteers are going to be in for an even bigger reality check in the next phase: the next issue on their table soon is going to be the need to extend the transition period currently offered, probably in incremental steps, but unltimately beyond the maximum extension period foreseen in the current draft deal. It's going to be more of the same, but even more annoying!

Meanwhile the EU has appointed Mr Barnier as coordinator of the newly created "UK task force", set up to steer and streamline the EU27's dealings with the UK during the transition phase as well as that of the EC's trade negotiating team...
Although no duration is given, the task force is created for a duration of 5 years, so that should give us a realistic idea of the initial length of the transition phase: we can forget about the 18 months (plus possibly another year) currently talked about in the exit deal and hoped for by Brexiteers: it's not going to happen, just as nothing which they said would, has happened.
The EU's predictions and opening bids seem to be fairly accurate, however. ;)
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:41 pm

Bostrom wrote:
Maybe it's time for a new referendum to get a clear message on what the british public thinks: https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status ... 4075446272


You can not keep voting until you like the result. The people voted to leave the EU - so Hard Brexit it should be.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 3:07 pm

The people of the UK has spoken loudly and clearly: That they are horribly divided on this issue, and no compromise position seems to exist. It is believed highly possible that a hard Brexit will destroy whatever unity exists in the UK. It is not even clear that London wants to remain in a Brexited UK, in fact it is rural UK old angry white men of either sex who are clearly opposed and carried the vote.
 
737307
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 3:09 pm

The EU should ask the UK WHY they want an extension. Not just simply having an extension for the sake of having an extension.
If the UK cannot give a satisfactorily answer to the 'why', then the EU should end the charade once and for all.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 3:43 pm

The EU has been very relaxed about everything. They leave it up to the UK to sort out their politics. The EU has taken its protective measures for the most part so I believe they care less and less either way.
 
94717
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 3:55 pm

Brexiteers version of Haloween; Trick or treat; Mr Barnier if there is no sweets.....
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 4:14 pm

olle wrote:
Brexiteers version of Haloween; Trick or treat; Mr Barnier if there is no sweets.....


Just à-propos : Michel Barnier set to lead ‘UK Task Force’ in Brexit phase II on politico today :)
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:29 pm

seahawk wrote:
You can not keep voting until you like the result.

I know you're just trolling but that's exactly what Boris tried in the house today. Trying to re-run a debate and vote which had already given him what he wants, brexit approval (subject to legislation being in place).
Pretty much sums brexit up, a bunch of dimwited, arrogant plonkers fighting to gain something they already possess.
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:35 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
The EU should ask the UK WHY they want an extension. Not just simply having an extension for the sake of having an extension.
If the UK cannot give a satisfactorily answer to the 'why', then the EU should end the charade once and for all.

Once the nation is safeguarded (ie extension granted) from the disasterous 'no-deal by default' that the current minority government are so keen to inflict by circumventing Parliamentary process. I'm sure steps will be made to attempt to resolve the stalemate in the democractically elected part of Parliament, beit via general election or confirmatory referendum.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:45 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
The EU should ask the UK WHY they want an extension. Not just simply having an extension for the sake of having an extension.
If the UK cannot give a satisfactorily answer to the 'why', then the EU should end the charade once and for all.

Once the nation is safeguarded (ie extension granted) from the disasterous 'no-deal by default' that the current minority government are so keen to inflict by circumventing Parliamentary process. I'm sure steps will be made to attempt to resolve the stalemate in the democractically elected part of Parliament, beit via general election or confirmatory referendum.


So what are they going to do if the EU doesn't grant the extension, scramble to approve it then?
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:56 pm

A101 wrote:
ChrisKen wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
The EU should ask the UK WHY they want an extension. Not just simply having an extension for the sake of having an extension.
If the UK cannot give a satisfactorily answer to the 'why', then the EU should end the charade once and for all.

Once the nation is safeguarded (ie extension granted) from the disasterous 'no-deal by default' that the current minority government are so keen to inflict by circumventing Parliamentary process. I'm sure steps will be made to attempt to resolve the stalemate in the democractically elected part of Parliament, beit via general election or confirmatory referendum.


So what are they going to do if the EU doesn't grant the extension, scramble to approve it then?

I'd imagine Parliament would have to bring the government down at the 11th hour and revoke article 50 (or seek an extension based on the plans of the caretaker government) in that highly unlikely event.

The ball is in the government's court.
They've had their GREEN LIGHT FOR BREXIT but bumbling Boris just wasted another day, trying everything in his power not to get his fantastic deal through by not introducing the bills needed to pass the legislation required.
The EU aren't stupid enough to not grant an extension, it's not in their interest to decline, nor are they daft enough to allow Boris to pin it on them (or our democractically elected part of parliamemt) as he's clearly still trying to do.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:43 am

ChrisKen wrote:
A101 wrote:
ChrisKen wrote:
Once the nation is safeguarded (ie extension granted) from the disasterous 'no-deal by default' that the current minority government are so keen to inflict by circumventing Parliamentary process. I'm sure steps will be made to attempt to resolve the stalemate in the democractically elected part of Parliament, beit via general election or confirmatory referendum.


So what are they going to do if the EU doesn't grant the extension, scramble to approve it then?

I'd imagine Parliament would have to bring the government down at the 11th hour and revoke article 50 (or seek an extension based on the plans of the caretaker government) in that highly unlikely event.

The ball is in the government's court.
They've had their GREEN LIGHT FOR BREXIT but bumbling Boris just wasted another day, trying everything in his power not to get his fantastic deal through by not introducing the bills needed to pass the legislation required.
The EU aren't stupid enough to not grant an extension, it's not in their interest to decline, nor are they daft enough to allow Boris to pin it on them (or our democractically elected part of parliamemt) as he's clearly still trying to do.



Risky strategy by the EU in my humble opinion, more likely Parliament will not endorse the new agreement go to an election, no guarantees who's going to win and perhaps leaving the EU to work on another deal, I don't think they want that and nor does the UK population. Its certainly not a straight forward decision for the EU.

I think the EU should apply pressure on Parliament either approve the new deal, no deal or revoke. If Parliament force revoke on the government then call a no confidence vote I don't think Boris would put up another bill for leaving the EU in a hurry.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:29 am

The improbability level has now reached xkcd levels:
Image
"If you'd just agree to hold your meetings in here, you'd have PLENTY of time to figure things out before the deadline."

https://xkcd.com/2218/
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:27 am

A101 wrote:
ChrisKen wrote:
A101 wrote:

So what are they going to do if the EU doesn't grant the extension, scramble to approve it then?

I'd imagine Parliament would have to bring the government down at the 11th hour and revoke article 50 (or seek an extension based on the plans of the caretaker government) in that highly unlikely event.

The ball is in the government's court.
They've had their GREEN LIGHT FOR BREXIT but bumbling Boris just wasted another day, trying everything in his power not to get his fantastic deal through by not introducing the bills needed to pass the legislation required.
The EU aren't stupid enough to not grant an extension, it's not in their interest to decline, nor are they daft enough to allow Boris to pin it on them (or our democractically elected part of parliamemt) as he's clearly still trying to do.



Risky strategy by the EU in my humble opinion, more likely Parliament will not endorse the new agreement go to an election, no guarantees who's going to win and perhaps leaving the EU to work on another deal, I don't think they want that and nor does the UK population. Its certainly not a straight forward decision for the EU.

I think the EU should apply pressure on Parliament either approve the new deal, no deal or revoke. If Parliament force revoke on the government then call a no confidence vote I don't think Boris would put up another bill for leaving the EU in a hurry.

The EU won't publically apply pressure, as said they aren't as stupid as our incumbents. The EU, while frustrated by the process (as we all are) will continue to allow the UK's democratic process to run its course (as it has always done). Boris & Co won't win the blame game, as much as they continue to try to do so instead of cracking on and delivering.

I didn't say it was a strategy by the EU. It was a description of what may well happen in the end game, specifically the likely worse case scenario.
Given a last gasp choice between, no-deal crash out by default or revocation that would come with Boris failing to deliver the legislation his deal requires and the unlikely event the EU refuse an extension to both the current Government AND any following caretaker government. Parliament, or rather what's left of it, is only going to vote one way (and is duty bound to do so).


The government have their green light for brexit. The government are the ones delaying it by pissing around trying obtain something they already have. Pass the required bills, brexit happens.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:42 am

Meanwhile, ex-Tory MPs needed to help pass all the required Brexit bill are demanding that it includes the AUTOMATIC extension of the transition period foreseen in it, until and unless Parliament decides otherwise.

In light of the EU's own assessment that any FTA between the EU and the UK will take several (3 to 8!) years to complete and ratify, this move is deemed highly needed to avoid going over the cliff edge at some later stage, after the formal Brexit: indeed, the UK still risks a 'no deal' Brexit at the end of the transition period in 2020 when BoJo (or any other Tory PM) could be unwilling to extend the transition period further or use the refusal to extend it as some sort of leverage to pressure the EU with or to still obtain a 'no deal' outcome.

Needless to say this legal guarantee is a very difficult thing to swallow for the British government since it gives the EU an indirect method for keeping the UK in a permanent state of transition (Farage called it 'a colony) by simply not agreeing to any FTA with it, but this uncomfortable clause is entirely of BoJo's own making due to the complete lack of trust in him amongst MPs of his own party even as he's given -and broken- his promise a but too often already.

Meanwhile, the EU Parliament has also set its price to ratify the exit treaty:
1- an independant UK IMA, so Prity Patel and consortes have no influence over any of its decisions by them setting some artificial quota for deportation etc.
2- More assistance from the UK Home Department to help all EU citizens in the UK to complete the required documents for staying
3- immediate settled status for all those EU citizens currently in the pre-settled status
4- no deportation for those who missed deadlines
In other words: Prity Patel needs to eat her hat and shut up in future: all EU citizens can stay, and none will be deported. :D

Seems to me like the UK is already made to feel how it will be treated by the EU once it's a thrird country in the dying moments of it's EU membership.
Better get used to it, I'd say.
Last edited by sabenapilot on Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:43 am

A101 wrote:
Risky strategy by the EU in my humble opinion, more likely Parliament will not endorse the new agreement go to an election, no guarantees who's going to win and perhaps leaving the EU to work on another deal, I don't think they want that and nor does the UK population. Its certainly not a straight forward decision for the EU.


Risky what ? Of course EU will consent to extend, it cannot be seen as the one pulling the plug, the decision to revoke, ratify a WA or go out No Deal, must come from UK. UK only.
If for once you listen/read to something else than UK press you will find there is absolutely no doubt about that on the continent.

The only strategic dimension on EU side is to determine the length of the extension, which is not big deal yet (will become more complicated next spring when MFF budget discussion will be around). I can't figure out what's the risk here.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:47 am

ChrisKen wrote:
A101 wrote:
ChrisKen wrote:
I'd imagine Parliament would have to bring the government down at the 11th hour and revoke article 50 (or seek an extension based on the plans of the caretaker government) in that highly unlikely event.

The ball is in the government's court.
They've had their GREEN LIGHT FOR BREXIT but bumbling Boris just wasted another day, trying everything in his power not to get his fantastic deal through by not introducing the bills needed to pass the legislation required.
The EU aren't stupid enough to not grant an extension, it's not in their interest to decline, nor are they daft enough to allow Boris to pin it on them (or our democractically elected part of parliamemt) as he's clearly still trying to do.



Risky strategy by the EU in my humble opinion, more likely Parliament will not endorse the new agreement go to an election, no guarantees who's going to win and perhaps leaving the EU to work on another deal, I don't think they want that and nor does the UK population. Its certainly not a straight forward decision for the EU.

I think the EU should apply pressure on Parliament either approve the new deal, no deal or revoke. If Parliament force revoke on the government then call a no confidence vote I don't think Boris would put up another bill for leaving the EU in a hurry.

The EU won't publically apply pressure, as said they aren't as stupid as our incumbents. The EU, while frustrated by the process (as we all are) will continue to allow the UK's democratic process to run its course (as it has always done). Boris & Co won't win the blame game, as much as they continue to try to do so instead of cracking on and delivering.

I didn't say it was a strategy by the EU. It was a description of what may well happen in the end game, specifically the likely worse case scenario.
Given a last gasp choice between, no-deal crash out by default or revocation that would come with Boris failing to deliver the legislation his deal requires and the unlikely event the EU refuse an extension to both the current Government AND any following caretaker government. Parliament, or rather what's left of it, is only going to vote one way (and is duty bound to do so).


The government have their green light for brexit. The government are the ones delaying it by pissing around trying obtain something they already have. Pass the required bills, brexit happens.


Well no he dosnt have green light for anything as far as I know as of this moment the UK is still set to leave on the 31st with no actual deal approved by advisory or legislation. If and when the EU grant the extension I’m not expecting the deal to go thru as parliament will hijack it again and push for either a GE or another referenda, the EU needs to be careful for what it wish’s for here, at least there is a high probability if the EU will not grant the extension Bercow and Co will gain control and force the government to revoke, I’d even put a £1000 down on it easy money for me if that were to happen.
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:26 am

A101 wrote:
ChrisKen wrote:
A101 wrote:


Risky strategy by the EU in my humble opinion, more likely Parliament will not endorse the new agreement go to an election, no guarantees who's going to win and perhaps leaving the EU to work on another deal, I don't think they want that and nor does the UK population. Its certainly not a straight forward decision for the EU.

I think the EU should apply pressure on Parliament either approve the new deal, no deal or revoke. If Parliament force revoke on the government then call a no confidence vote I don't think Boris would put up another bill for leaving the EU in a hurry.

The EU won't publically apply pressure, as said they aren't as stupid as our incumbents. The EU, while frustrated by the process (as we all are) will continue to allow the UK's democratic process to run its course (as it has always done). Boris & Co won't win the blame game, as much as they continue to try to do so instead of cracking on and delivering.

I didn't say it was a strategy by the EU. It was a description of what may well happen in the end game, specifically the likely worse case scenario.
Given a last gasp choice between, no-deal crash out by default or revocation that would come with Boris failing to deliver the legislation his deal requires and the unlikely event the EU refuse an extension to both the current Government AND any following caretaker government. Parliament, or rather what's left of it, is only going to vote one way (and is duty bound to do so).


The government have their green light for brexit. The government are the ones delaying it by pissing around trying obtain something they already have. Pass the required bills, brexit happens.


Well no he dosnt have green light for anything as far as I know as of this moment the UK is still set to leave on the 31st with no actual deal approved by advisory or legislation. If and when the EU grant the extension I’m not expecting the deal to go thru as parliament will hijack it again and push for either a GE or another referenda, the EU needs to be careful for what it wish’s for here, at least there is a high probability if the EU will not grant the extension Bercow and Co will gain control and force the government to revoke, I’d even put a £1000 down on it easy money for me if that were to happen.


His bill to leave with the deal passed through Parliament by default along with the Letwin ammendment.
The government now need to pass the leglislation required for the deal, once that is in place, the house are bound by law to exit with his deal. That's his green light.
If he does not pass the relevant leglislation, he won't get his brexit and steps will be taken, by law, to stop a no deal crash out.
Which bit do you not understand?

Nice to see he's up to the usual tricks again this morning, once again trying to break with normal parliamentry procedure and trying to handcuff the house with an unprecedented time limit.

Pass the legislation, and the brexit deal happens. Don't pass it and it won't. The ball is in the governments court but once again they're pissing around trying pin blame on others instead of delivering something they clearly don't want themselves.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 22, 2019 10:41 am

ChrisKen wrote:
His bill to leave with the deal passed through Parliament by default along with the Letwin ammendment.
The government now need to pass the leglislation required for the deal, once that is in place, the house are bound by law to exit with his deal. That's his green light.

Not sure I agree with your interpretation, based on all the laws / rules / regulations bought up, the deal cannot be passed by the house by default, I think the words they used was the parliament must have a substantive vote, remind me again when that happened?
The government pulled the vote on Saturday because it was meaningless, the wrecking amendment meant that they could vote fully for it or fully against it with no consequence whatsoever.
Do we really believe that Sir Oilver changed his mind later in the day on the Bojo deal, he now 100% supports the deal because it is dead and has no chance of passing in the house.
The issue now is who will be PM and whether they will try to get a new PM without a general election, the issue of Brexit for the foreseable future is done.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:16 am

par13del wrote:
ChrisKen wrote:
His bill to leave with the deal passed through Parliament by default along with the Letwin ammendment.
The government now need to pass the leglislation required for the deal, once that is in place, the house are bound by law to exit with his deal. That's his green light.

Not sure I agree with your interpretation, based on all the laws / rules / regulations bought up, the deal cannot be passed by the house by default, I think the words they used was the parliament must have a substantive vote, remind me again when that happened?
The government pulled the vote on Saturday because it was meaningless, the wrecking amendment meant that they could vote fully for it or fully against it with no consequence whatsoever.
Do we really believe that Sir Oilver changed his mind later in the day on the Bojo deal, he now 100% supports the deal because it is dead and has no chance of passing in the house.
The issue now is who will be PM and whether they will try to get a new PM without a general election, the issue of Brexit for the foreseable future is done.



Yep agree 100% hence the EU has a chance to end it either way by not granting an extension, I actully think the UK population will thank them for it.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:28 am

A101 wrote:
the EU has a chance to end it either way by not granting an extension, I actully think the UK population will thank them for it.


The EU doesn't care about the UK population's opion about it any longer.

The EU is eager not to be seen to pull the plug: a (conditional) extension is going to be granted so that history books will always tell it's the UK which volontarily left the EU, not the EU which refused the UK its third extension. Given the 'success' Brexit is likely going to be, this is very important as the blame for this will have to be atttibuted to someone in a decade or so.

Also, the way in which the EU27 unity has remained intact and how the big countries (DE, FR, ES, etc) have stood by the smallerst and weakest one of their group (EI) rather than break ranks for their own immediate benefit when dealing with a soon-to-be third country like the UK, is the best political advertisement the EU has ever had: it has been noticed by all politicians accross the EU, notably in the smaller memberstates... It's now very difficult to argue against EU membership as nationalistc politician in EU countries in the Baltic, in Finland or Sweden, in Cyprus, etc when you have a bully neighbour just next door, especially with a US President like D. Trump: you could argue that EU membership is currently providing more backing and is a stronger line of defence than NATO membership even!
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:52 am

par13del wrote:
ChrisKen wrote:
His bill to leave with the deal passed through Parliament by default along with the Letwin ammendment.
The government now need to pass the leglislation required for the deal, once that is in place, the house are bound by law to exit with his deal. That's his green light.

Not sure I agree with your interpretation, based on all the laws / rules / regulations bought up, the deal cannot be passed by the house by default, I think the words they used was the parliament must have a substantive vote, remind me again when that happened?
The government pulled the vote on Saturday because it was meaningless, the wrecking amendment meant that they could vote fully for it or fully against it with no consequence whatsoever.
Do we really believe that Sir Oilver changed his mind later in the day on the Bojo deal, he now 100% supports the deal because it is dead and has no chance of passing in the house.
The issue now is who will be PM and whether they will try to get a new PM without a general election, the issue of Brexit for the foreseable future is done.


The Letwin ammendment says the brexit deal must be approved by the house if the government get all the required legislation in place. Ie get the the job done and it happens. . The Withdrawal Agreement bill passed with the Letwin ammendment, therefore the WA bill passed and Boris's deal is approved subject to fulfilling legislative requiements. Which is the government's problem to sort out, but they're too busy blaming the blame game to get on with it.

The EU will not intervene and force a sovereign parliament into a decision which must be made by it's democractic process. Particularly when that Parliament and the governing part of it is so keen to blame all (including the traditional EU bogeyman) but themselves. So the EU will extend while that process takes place, however long it drags on for. The EU will merrily keep on going about it's business, as our MEPs will continue to do so.

Parliament have ruled out a no deal crash out. Period, it's not happening. The government know the deal is shit (as it was always going to be). It's all posturing ahead of the ineviable the blame game when the final decision (the uncomfortable but correct decision for the UK's interests) must be made. They all know what it is, as they did from the start. They are all trying to pin it on each other, the EU and eventually they will try to pin it in the electorate.

Boris painted himself into a corner, he was duped, he's frantically trying to salvage even the faintest whiff of roses from his stinking political corpse.
Ditto for the House Of Commons for allowing this charade to continue as long as it has, because collectively they don't have the balls to do what's right for the nation regardless of their own political hides
Last edited by ChrisKen on Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 22, 2019 11:52 am

sabenapilot wrote:
A101 wrote:
the EU has a chance to end it either way by not granting an extension, I actully think the UK population will thank them for it.


The EU doesn't care about the UK population's opion about it any longer.

The EU is eager not to be seen to pull the plug: a (conditional) extension is going to be granted so that history books will always tell it's the UK which volontarily left the EU, not the EU which refused the UK its third extension. Given the 'success' Brexit is likely going to be, this is very important as the blame for this will have to be atttibuted to someone in a decade or so.

Also, the way in which the EU27 unity has remained intact and how the big countries (DE, FR, ES, etc) have stood by the smallerst and weakest one of their group (EI) rather than break ranks for their own immediate benefit when dealing with a soon-to-be third country like the UK, is the best political advertisement the EU has ever had: it has been noticed by all politicians accross the EU, notably in the smaller memberstates... It's now very difficult to argue against EU membership as nationalistc politician in EU countries in the Baltic, in Finland or Sweden, in Cyprus, etc when you have a bully neighbour just next door, especially with a US President like D. Trump: you could argue that EU membership is currently providing more backing and is a stronger line of defence than NATO membership even!



The EU are playing just as dumb as the morons in parliament about the whole thing as well, parliament won’t leave without a deal, so what do you think Bercow & CO will will do, talk about protecting your own interests, do you really think anyone is going to care about the history of it
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:07 pm

If you really think BoJo backs his own deal, you're the moron.
Bercow just applies the rules of the house. Don't break them, and he won't have to step in.

The EU don't have to do much except allow the UK's process to continue, as it has done for the last 40odd years. There's no gain for them forcing the issue.
Parliament is our democractic process, Parliament have to reach consenus. That's how it works, as it has done for centuries and that's what they still have to reach with this issue, however long it takes.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:16 pm

Nothing has changed in relation to the EU, in fact it has gotten better.
What the EU needs to do now is to move on, in their next meeting - emergency or not - they simply have to automate the UK extension period by six months, at the end of the period unless the UK parliament has voted for the current deal (whatever it is if there is one), the status quo remains. This is the important part for the EU, the status quo remains, that should be the penalty that the UK pays for being a bunch of t***s. Such will allow the UK parliament and Government to continue on their merry Brexit way with the understanding that No Deal is not an option and will not happen.
In the interim, the EU get's a full dues paying member who no longer get's to "muck up" the works with trivial non-integration issues, the new budget process get's a boost as its funding is secured as one of the main antagonist cannot weigh in on the issue, the UK as a trading partner has to continue to adhere to all EU rules and regulations, the people, business and human rights are protected, the relocation of EU assets and functions from the UK to the mainland can continue perhaps moving some to Ireland would be preferred however, France and Germany were already making plans.
At the end of the day, by the time that the UK makes a decisions whatever it is, the little economic influence that the UK had on the EU would have been greatly diminished to ensure that they never create an itch on the EU ever again, and that includes if they decide to revoke article 50, anyone who thinks that the UK relationship with the EU has not changed forever is delusional.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:17 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
If you really think BoJo backs his own deal, you're the moron.
Bercow just applies the rules of the house. Don't break them, and he won't have to step in.

How do you explain his allowing a vote on the TM deal multiple times?
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:17 pm

A101 wrote:
Yep agree 100% hence the EU has a chance to end it either way by not granting an extension, I actully think the Brextremists among the UK population will thank them for it.


Fixed that for you. :wave:
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 3782
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:17 pm

A101 wrote:
The EU are playing just as dumb as the morons in parliament about the whole thing as well, parliament won’t leave without a deal, so what do you think Bercow & CO will will do, talk about protecting your own interests, do you really think anyone is going to care about the history of it


The EU is waiting for the UK to make up its mind! What is it supposed to do: dictate the outcome? That's only happening in Brexit fantasy land...
It would conveniently match the concept of the UK being told by Brussels what to do, whereas reality now shows itself for what it truly is: the UK is sovereign to do what it wants when it wants to, but can't make up it's mind.. the hole shitshow of the past 3 years is entirely of its own making, just as the toxic cocktail of domestic issues leading to it is: incredibly low wage growth, unlimited labour immigration from the 10 Eastern EU countries, housing crisis, massively painful austerity etc... all direct consequences of Labour/Tory party policies over the past decades, not EU policies.
None of those are of EU making since none of those exist in any other EU countries, so none of those will disappear after Brexit either, unless policy chances are made at home, policies which ironically would lead to the UK being much more in line with those on the continent and exist there at present already.
It's going to be a sobering experience for politicians in charge at Westminster to have no more scapegoat for any of their own shortcomings as well as for those millions of people voting to take back control when they find out that their politicians are going to take the country even further away from the European way of life and enforce an American way of life onto the people as their method to take full benefit of Brexit.
Because let's make no mistake about it: THAT is what Brexit is all about for the fatcats who suppered it and who's vision about where brexit should lead to is the only one that counts to BoJo: it's about being able to strip the people of whatever labour, social, environmental and consumer protections they still enjoy today, in all those fields where the EU is now calling the shots and there's no British opt-out.
Last edited by sabenapilot on Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:23 pm

scbriml wrote:
A101 wrote:
Yep agree 100% hence the EU has a chance to end it either way by not granting an extension, I actully think the Brextremists among the UK population will thank them for it.


Fixed that for you. :wave:


Didn't need fixing in the 1st place :rotfl:

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