There would be civil war in Ireland if you tried to unite the two. It really isn’t as easy as you make out.
Probably – If we
A border poll can only be initiated from Westminster, so its always a political gambit by the UK. I imagine it would have to have overwhelming support for the UK Government to consider a Border Poll as a close poll could reopen old wounds.
Not so likely, though, when the northern irish population take that decision themselves.
That would only be so if 100% voted and 100% voted to unify and the chances of that happening well...…..
After all: Republicans fought against a foreign occupation regime, and Unionists fought the Republicans.
But if Ireland unites after a border poll,
Since the referenda their has been a few petitions to Westminster for a border poll and the total of 4990 signatures overall out of 1,293,971 registered voters, that's less than 1% of the NI electorate. There doesn't seem to be a big groundswell to call for a Border Poll at the moment, opinion polling and petitioning for the Border Poll are very different things.
But opinion polling in Northern Ireland suggests that it would be very close, The poll, published by Lord Ashcroft, shows that 45% of those surveyed said they would vote to stay in the UK, while 46% said they would choose to leave and join the Republic of Ireland, This breaks down to 51% to 49% for unification when don’t knows and those who say they would not vote are excluded. https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/09/m ... nife-edge/https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241028https://petition.parliament.uk/archived ... ons/134815https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/220198https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/254218https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/262825https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/266257
what pretext could Unionists have to take up arms
Gee history hasn't taught you much has it?
Demanding that an actually thoroughly disinterested english government re-occupy Northern Ireland?
Actually Unionist don't have to demand anything if you look at the Belfast Agreement, depending on how far the violence spreads before a border poll its up to Westminster to evaluate the level of security needed to quell the violence, that could mean anything from additional police thru to military intervention
From the Belfast Agreement;
2. The British Government will make progress towards the objective of as early a return as possible to normal security arrangements in Northern Ireland, consistent with the level of threat and with a published overall strategy, dealing with:
Republicans could simply wait until the laughing and shrugging of shoulders was done.
Republicans may simply laugh but then it becomes an all ROI/EU problem if a border poll is conducted under the Belfast Agreement under the ROI Constitution declares that the State has becomes obliged to accept the Border poll results no matter if its 50% +1 and no matter if the ROI is prepared economically or physically if sectarian violence increases, since the Belfast Agreement has taken effect the underlying problems actually haven't been resolved the violence has moved more inward but actually hasn't gone away, statics show that there have been 158 security-related deaths since signing the Belfast Agreement. in theory the UK can walk away from the problems once the negotiations are completed, it then reverts to whatever agreement has been reached between the UK/EU in regards to trade.
My advice be careful what you wish for...……..