User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 8726
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 10, 2019 6:55 am

The question is if the Torry party still cares? Businesses seem to have lost influence with them (aka "f*** the industry") and even the bankers in London do no longer have the power to change the course. If the motivation is purely power using nationalism - no trade deal will not matter to them - they will sell it as a victory.
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 10035
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 10, 2019 7:36 am

You can't fight the unicorns, the consequences can only be felt. A shame of a lot of good willing people in the Britsh iles (and on mainland Europe for that matter and numerous of companies around the world who can trade with the UK because of all the trade deals).

If people (or whole countries in this case) are dead set on injuring themselves, nobody is able to stop them, then so be it.

Like we have said all along, in the end it is the decision of the UK to leave and what kind of Brexit it wants, the consequences are known, so no unicorns, no exemptions, no terry picking, no fairytales, just the cold hard reality remains.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 11839
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:45 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/09/brexit-crisis-global-capitalism-britain-place-world

This 5 minute read discusses the dis-association of capitalism with the Conservative Party. It is also germane to what is happening in the US. Gist is that banking services, manufacturing, and others (IIRC, LHR and RRs are owned by foreigners) hence the interests of these entities are not ultimately tied to the UK. The Tory party is no longer influenced and somewhat controlled by them. A leading Tory even said 'f**k industry.


However there is ample evidence that Brexit is pushed by people making bets on the stock and forex markets. People that would also like to avoid financial scrutiny.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9049
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:59 am

Dutchy wrote:
Highly unlikely that the EU says, non, nein, nee or whatever. So if you want to speculate, what to do if Johnson doesn't write his letter, the EU will offer an extention to June on the condition that there will be something changed in the equation like new elections everyone seems to want or whatever.

Except the largest faction who could not pass the TM deal do not want an election, do not want a Labour caretaker PM and if an election is held, the chances of a Tory PM and a parliament that resembles the current one is the most likely outcome. Yes the EU potential offer is for an extension for something like an election, but I think they way things have been going, an election is not going to assist, unless Labour has a new leader, and the odds of that are....
 
LJ
Posts: 4852
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 10, 2019 4:09 pm

Maybe an agreement after all????

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49995133
 
LJ
Posts: 4852
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 10, 2019 7:53 pm

Nissan fears its European market will become unprofitable due to Brexit. Needless to say, this will be dismissed as "Project Fear" by some, but heck, they know better than the Chairman of Nissan Europe....don't they? The Juke may be safe for Sunderland, the Qashqai maybe not.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50000530
 
kaitak
Posts: 9707
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 1999 5:49 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 6:15 am

This is from today's Irish Times:

"One option the EU could accept is a scaled-down version of the customs partnership proposed by Theresa May for the whole of the UK and the whole of the EU. The reduced version would apply only to Northern Ireland, which would leave the EU customs union and remain part of the UK customs territory.

Under the customs partnership, the UK would agree to enforce EU customs rules and tariffs on goods moving from Britain to Northern Ireland. But if the EU tariff was higher than the UK tariff, businesses in the North would receive a rebate.

So Northern Ireland would leave the EU customs union and would enjoy all the benefits of an independent UK trade policy. But the customs border for administrative purposes would run alongside the regulatory border in the Irish Sea."

Now, the caveat is that this is speculation; the Taoiseach (Irish PM) has only said that there is a pathway; Boris said nothing. However, this seems to be a possible route. The devil, as they say, will be in the detail. We'll see what other parties say. A thumbs up from the DUP would help a lot, particularly with BoJo's numbers in parliament.

The key word is "pathway"; there will be a lot of negotiating still to be done and the EU might not be 100% receptive, but it certainly is a move in the right direction.

Here's the full IT article: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/u ... rqJpoOdXKY
 
LJ
Posts: 4852
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 6:23 am

kaitak wrote:
Now, the caveat is that this is speculation; the Taoiseach (Irish PM) has only said that there is a pathway; Boris said nothing. However, this seems to be a possible route. The devil, as they say, will be in the detail. We'll see what other parties say. A thumbs up from the DUP would help a lot, particularly with BoJo's numbers in parliament.


This will be a big "surrender" (to put it in terminology Boris and his followers understand) of the UK to the EU. Thus if the UK sees this as an alternative, it must spin it so that it doesn't look like a "surrender". Will be interesting to see how they would do that as they've clearly stated that a border in the Irish Sea wasn't an option.
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 8726
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 6:34 am

So in the end it is the first EU´s proposal. (border in the Irish sea)
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 11839
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 7:43 am

The DUP and the ERG can't accept that. Some see it as a way to get a no deal Brexit on the 31st.

Put that "deal" to a vote, have the DUP and ERG vote for it with lots of winks, enough Labour MPs and Tory rebels will also vote for it, so it will pass.

Now, no need to send the letter to ask for an extension.

Then do nothing else. A deal needs lots of other laws to be passed to be actually enacted. If this isn't done, then really no deal has been accepted, et voila !
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 10035
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 8:09 am

Aesma wrote:
The DUP and the ERG can't accept that. Some see it as a way to get a no deal Brexit on the 31st.

Put that "deal" to a vote, have the DUP and ERG vote for it with lots of winks, enough Labour MPs and Tory rebels will also vote for it, so it will pass.

Now, no need to send the letter to ask for an extension.

Then do nothing else. A deal needs lots of other laws to be passed to be actually enacted. If this isn't done, then really no deal has been accepted, et voila !


Exactly, so a very dangerous path to take. The wording of this is at the utmost importance. Accepting such a deal on the condition that all necessary laws will be passed before the actual Brexit date.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
LJ
Posts: 4852
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 8:40 am

Aesma wrote:
The DUP and the ERG can't accept that. Some see it as a way to get a no deal Brexit on the 31st.


The DUP, I agree, will not vote for it, but I think it's unclear if the ERG will vote against it. Their main goal is Brexit, whatever it takes.

Dutchy wrote:
Exactly, so a very dangerous path to take. The wording of this is at the utmost importance. Accepting such a deal on the condition that all necessary laws will be passed before the actual Brexit date.


Or it would contain an automatic extension(call it "Transition Period" or something similar) till the laws have been passed.
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 3062
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 11:42 am

seahawk wrote:
So in the end it is the first EU´s proposal. (border in the Irish sea)


Seems like it indeed: under this proposal and although NI leaves the SM and CU together with the rest of the UK, it's leaving on paper only because in practice and thanks to a new treaty with the EU, there will be a full border down the Irish Sea so as to guarantee a single custom territory in Ireland, something no British PM could ever accept according to TM!

And you can be sure there will be no unilataral exit from that arrangement either! ;)

And then BoJo dared to call the Benn act a surrender bill?

ROTFL
 
ChrisKen
Posts: 838
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2008 11:15 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:09 pm

The second Boris puts a border in the Irish Sea, a whole host of legal challenges will ensue. It's a breach of many acts and as it's effectively "one country, two systems", it's fundamentally unconstitutional.
It won't happen and should not happen.

We either leave with no deal (stupidity) or revoke & remain (the sane choice from day 1).
 
Olddog
Topic Author
Posts: 1236
Joined: Sat Jun 25, 2016 4:41 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:32 pm

What about a vote in NI only ?
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
kaitak
Posts: 9707
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 1999 5:49 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 1:24 pm

Olddog wrote:
What about a vote in NI only ?


Well, they had that and NI voted to remain. People in the UK say "respect the vote", but of course, that doesn't apply to NI or Scotland*. There was a heavy vote in NI in favour of remaining, but naturally, the DUP thinks that remaining in the UK and protecting the union - regardless of the economic cost - outweighs that.

To be honest, in the end, I think this is going to end up as a "fudge"; there'll be a border along the Irish Sea in name only and the odd check now and again, just to tick a box, but ultimately, I think common sense will rule and these customs borders will exist in name only. There will be no border in Ireland and most exports from NI will go through Dublin; the "border" within the UK will really be for trade with the UK only (after all, who is going to export goods through the UK with all the paperwork and tariffs that will result in, when they can export through the RoI with none). They will have the odd check - probably just paperwork to be submitted electronically). The DUP can maintain the pretence of regulatory alignment with the UK and business can export through Dublin - and everyone will live happily ever after. ( In a sense, it's a bit like Taiwan and China; as long as it doesn't talk about independence or use any "red line" phrases, then everyone gets on with their lives).

(*To be honest, I've always thought that the NI and Scottish governments should have insisted, before the vote was allowed, that there be "weighting"; surely, they must have known that there was a possibility of a "no" vote in England and Wales and that the volume of this would have outweighed their own votes.)
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9049
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 2:14 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
The second Boris puts a border in the Irish Sea, a whole host of legal challenges will ensue. It's a breach of many acts and as it's effectively "one country, two systems", it's fundamentally unconstitutional.
It won't happen and should not happen.

We either leave with no deal (stupidity) or revoke & remain (the sane choice from day 1).

Well the UK has some expertise in this area based on what was put in place in Hong Kong......my question would be what is so bad about it?
Nothing would fundamentally change in NI and Ireland, and if a great part of the Project Fear mindset is the Troubles, nothing changes, the EU remains as the one who ensures they do not return.
Just as the UK passed laws related to EU integration, laws would have to be passed to facilitate such a deal if accepted by both sides.

At the end of the day, if the will exist they will find a way, just look at the current situation. The will does not exist for Brexit so they have spent a number of years ensuring that no way exist.
 
Klaus
Posts: 21291
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 2:15 pm

kaitak wrote:
To be honest, in the end, I think this is going to end up as a "fudge"; there'll be a border along the Irish Sea in name only and the odd check now and again, just to tick a box, but ultimately, I think common sense will rule and these customs borders will exist in name only.

Nope. That would leave a smuggling path wide open into the Single Market and the European Union cannot accept that.
 
Klaus
Posts: 21291
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 2:19 pm

par13del wrote:
At the end of the day, if the will exist they will find a way, just look at the current situation. The will does not exist for Brexit so they have spent a number of years ensuring that no way exist.

The problem is that the leavers don't have the will to accept the actual, real consequences of their fantasies but insist that all the fallout must be endured by everybody else while they only pick and choose whatever they fancy.

And understandably, those others just don't see a good reason to play along with that.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9049
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 2:21 pm

kaitak wrote:
(*To be honest, I've always thought that the NI and Scottish governments should have insisted, before the vote was allowed, that there be "weighting"; surely, they must have known that there was a possibility of a "no" vote in England and Wales and that the volume of this would have outweighed their own votes.)

If they had bought such to the floor there would never have been a referendum.
NI is weighted due to the GFA regardless of how they voted, that they voted Remain just makes it more palatable for them to have a border in the Irish Sea.
Scotland on the other hand, is more interesting and complicated, they voted remain twice, once for the EU and once for the union.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9049
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 2:23 pm

Klaus wrote:
kaitak wrote:
To be honest, in the end, I think this is going to end up as a "fudge"; there'll be a border along the Irish Sea in name only and the odd check now and again, just to tick a box, but ultimately, I think common sense will rule and these customs borders will exist in name only.

Nope. That would leave a smuggling path wide open into the Single Market and the European Union cannot accept that.

Well the fact that we are talking about water physically separating the leavers from the remainers would make it a wee bit more difficult for the nefarious persons.
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 3062
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 3:29 pm

Despite negotiations now happeing 'in a tunnel' (meaning no more leaks till they end either successfully and come out holding eachothers hands... come out of the tunnel alone), there are still the briefings from Mr. Barnier to the EU27ambassadors from this morning which give a clear hint as to what is the thinking.

In a nutshell:

the UK -once again- gives in and agrees to leave NI behind in full regulatory allignment with the SM, meaning an extension of the offer from BoJo to have Ni in regulatory alligment on food and agricultural products only, but also with NI remaining in a sort of a custom union with the EU through the creation of a single custom territory with the ROI, meaning ALL checks and border formalities will have to be concluded in the Irish Sea, rather than somewhere on the Irish Island.


The devil is probably in the details, but this is basically a complete return to the EU's original proposal for the Irish problem, one that has always been preferred by Brussels over the UK-wide solution from the deal with TM to start with.

In return for the UK's U-turn, the EU would agree to an extendable transitional phase… so likely 2022 or even 2024...

Oh, and BoJo is going to pay the full bill (and possibly even more so, if indeed the extension call is made by the UK before the end of the original period)

Great victory… :roll:
This was on offer from the start... at a lower price basically….
I do wonder how they are going to spin this into some victory?
And how the DUP is going to swallow this, remains a mistery, especially as there's not going to be any real exit mechanism either for NI other than the poll on reunification.
 
Klaus
Posts: 21291
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 3:57 pm

par13del wrote:
Klaus wrote:
kaitak wrote:
To be honest, in the end, I think this is going to end up as a "fudge"; there'll be a border along the Irish Sea in name only and the odd check now and again, just to tick a box, but ultimately, I think common sense will rule and these customs borders will exist in name only.

Nope. That would leave a smuggling path wide open into the Single Market and the European Union cannot accept that.

Well the fact that we are talking about water physically separating the leavers from the remainers would make it a wee bit more difficult for the nefarious persons.

How so? NI has a substantial Remain majority but the DUP pushing hard for Brexit nevertheless, while Scotland has an even larger Remain majority on the other side of the water, but even there there are Leavers among them.

Even England is completely split and this would not change that.

And smugglers don't care about politicial positions anyway – they'd just use the open door.

So that wouldn't solve anything.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9049
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 6:04 pm

Klaus wrote:
par13del wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Nope. That would leave a smuggling path wide open into the Single Market and the European Union cannot accept that.

Well the fact that we are talking about water physically separating the leavers from the remainers would make it a wee bit more difficult for the nefarious persons.

How so? NI has a substantial Remain majority but the DUP pushing hard for Brexit nevertheless, while Scotland has an even larger Remain majority on the other side of the water, but even there there are Leavers among them.

Even England is completely split and this would not change that.

And smugglers don't care about politicial positions anyway – they'd just use the open door.

So that wouldn't solve anything.

Ah, you misunderstood my point, NI is unique in that it has the GFA, so leaving them behind in the UK is what I meant, it means that the sea will now separate the leavers (NI) from the Remainers (the rest of the UK) much easier to control the borders, in whichever form they may take.
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 3062
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 6:51 pm

The contours of the new thinking in the UK are slowly emerging…

On paper, Northern Ireland would leave the EU's Customs Union together with the rest of the UK, but the UK would commit to enforce all of the bloc’s current and future customs rules and tariffs on all goods moving within Britain to Northern Ireland as some sort of an internal British levy, with a subsequent domestic rebate system to compensate those businesses not exporting these goods further to the RoI…In short: NI would be in the EU's CU for everything and everybody in the world but the British and then alone for British goods staying within Britain.

Anyway, EU sources suggested there would not be sufficient time to work out the full legal details of any such EU-NI custom territory for the UK to leave orderly on 31 October, so we're still looking at another extension.
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 10035
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 7:23 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Anyway, EU sources suggested there would not be sufficient time to work out the full legal details of any such EU-NI custom territory for the UK to leave orderly on 31 October, so we're still looking at another extension.


Given it is Johnson and his backers of Brexitremist, it would be best to have everything settle before the Brexit becomes official.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 11839
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 8:45 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Despite negotiations now happeing 'in a tunnel' (meaning no more leaks till they end either successfully and come out holding eachothers hands... come out of the tunnel alone), there are still the briefings from Mr. Barnier to the EU27ambassadors from this morning which give a clear hint as to what is the thinking.

In a nutshell:

the UK -once again- gives in and agrees to leave NI behind in full regulatory allignment with the SM, meaning an extension of the offer from BoJo to have Ni in regulatory alligment on food and agricultural products only, but also with NI remaining in a sort of a custom union with the EU through the creation of a single custom territory with the ROI, meaning ALL checks and border formalities will have to be concluded in the Irish Sea, rather than somewhere on the Irish Island.


The devil is probably in the details, but this is basically a complete return to the EU's original proposal for the Irish problem, one that has always been preferred by Brussels over the UK-wide solution from the deal with TM to start with.

In return for the UK's U-turn, the EU would agree to an extendable transitional phase… so likely 2022 or even 2024...

Oh, and BoJo is going to pay the full bill (and possibly even more so, if indeed the extension call is made by the UK before the end of the original period)

Great victory… :roll:
This was on offer from the start... at a lower price basically….
I do wonder how they are going to spin this into some victory?
And how the DUP is going to swallow this, remains a mistery, especially as there's not going to be any real exit mechanism either for NI other than the poll on reunification.


If someone believes the UK government is actually OK with that, and not planning some treachery, I have a bridge to sell that person !
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 17477
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Fri Oct 11, 2019 9:41 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Exactly, so a very dangerous path to take. The wording of this is at the utmost importance. Accepting such a deal on the condition that all necessary laws will be passed before the actual Brexit date.


If such a deal is agreed, subject to verification on both sides, it would only be sensible to extend the Brexit deadline to allow such verification.

LJ wrote:
I think it's unclear if the ERG will vote against it. Their main goal is Brexit, whatever it takes.


Their voting record in Parliament suggests otherwise. All they've ever wanted is the hardest of hard Brexits. They are the very definition of Brextremists.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
LJ
Posts: 4852
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Oct 12, 2019 6:11 pm

scbriml wrote:
LJ wrote:
I think it's unclear if the ERG will vote against it. Their main goal is Brexit, whatever it takes.


Their voting record in Parliament suggests otherwise. All they've ever wanted is the hardest of hard Brexits. They are the very definition of Brextremists.


However, if the alternative is a lesser degree of Brexit, than they would probably vote in favour. Moreover, if enough MPS can be gathered for sucha deal, than it will pass, regardless what ERG and DUP think. That leaves the Brexit Party, but when Boris can claim to have exited the EU (and voter believe it), many of them will probably not vote for the Brexit Party anymore.
 
kaitak
Posts: 9707
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 1999 5:49 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Oct 12, 2019 8:10 pm

The DUP is now making noises and (oddly enough) not helpful ones. They are demanding that NI stay inside the UK Customs union and that there be regulatory alignment between it and the UK. They are about to find that they've lost their ability to play puppet master ...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -deal.html

They will just have to swallow the bitter pill of seeing a bill pass which will actually be in the economic interests of NI and consistent with the democratic vote of NI's population in the referendum. It'll be tough for them, having fought so hard for so long to undermine both.

I guess the question for the DUP is: if it comes down to it and regulatory alignment (or not) between NI and the UK is the only thing that stands between the UK and a no deal Brexit, do they REALLY, honestly, believed that they will be allowed to block it. They probably will try, but they'll fail. And come the election - which can't be more than a few weeks away, the population of NI will remember just how well the DUP stood up for their interests ...
 
LJ
Posts: 4852
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Oct 13, 2019 8:42 am

kaitak wrote:
The DUP is now making noises and (oddly enough) not helpful ones. They are demanding that NI stay inside the UK Customs union and that there be regulatory alignment between it and the UK. They are about to find that they've lost their ability to play puppet master ...


I'll wouldn't underestimate the DUP. The question is how much public support DUP will be able to generate for their cause. If the public perception turns against Boris, I'm sure he'll retract anything he would agree to with the EU (irrespective of what he believes). In the end he's now in a luxurious position. If the DUP kills this deal he can blame both DUP and EU for not gettiing a deal (a promise he made). The fact that this may increase division in the UK is not important to him. He cares more about himself and his party anyway.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 3138
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Oct 13, 2019 2:48 pm

I think if Boris in effect makes the Irish Sea the border he should be congratulated and not seen as a humiliation. Preserving the peace of Ireland is a Good. The EU in turn should make it as easy as possible, and I think they will. It will be somewhat awkward for NI to be in the UK, but exist somewhat as a free port. But that could be turned into something that would advantage both the UK and the EU as well as the Irish people.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 10035
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Oct 13, 2019 2:54 pm

Yes, if Johnson succeeds to get a deal through that is thus acceptable to all parties, then yes he deserves praise.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Bostrom
Posts: 804
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2016 7:11 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Oct 13, 2019 10:00 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Donald Trump announced Saturday night that the U.S. will send $50 million in stabilization assistance to Syria. The money, according to the Office of the Press Secretary, is to "protect persecuted ethnic and religious minorities and advance human rights."


Link

And in true Trumpianic fashion, it is costing the US more and more human hardship, then keeping the status quo.


Posted in the wrong thread?
 
User avatar
flyingturtle
Posts: 5656
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:39 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:11 am

When October 19 comes, and BoJo has to ask for an extension...

I wonder if he will just send a second letter to Brussels, saying "The first letter does not reflect the position of the UK government, and is therefore null and void."

The EU can't do anything else than asking BoJo: "Sir, we've received two letters. Which one is to be taken serious?" - because enforcing UK laws like the Benn Act is not the EU's job. Any other reaction would set a dangerous precedent, and would be felt as meddling in national matters.
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 11839
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 14, 2019 1:34 am

The EU parliament (admittedly not the EU council) has said in advance that the UK parliament is sovereign, so it will take into account that letter.

Usually the UK government has credibility through the support of the UK parliament, but the current UK government hasn't proven it has that support, in fact it hasn't been able to pass anything in parliament.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
LJ
Posts: 4852
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 14, 2019 7:01 am

flyingturtle wrote:
I wonder if he will just send a second letter to Brussels, saying "The first letter does not reflect the position of the UK government, and is therefore null and void."


AFAIK Boris cannot do this as it would be against the Benn Act (the MPs already though about this option) and thus unlawful

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-loopholes-explainer/looking-for-loopholes-how-could-uk-pm-johnson-avoid-delaying-brexit-idUSKBN1WB1PB.
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 10035
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 14, 2019 7:43 am

flyingturtle wrote:
When October 19 comes, and BoJo has to ask for an extension...

I wonder if he will just send a second letter to Brussels, saying "The first letter does not reflect the position of the UK government, and is therefore null and void."

The EU can't do anything else than asking BoJo: "Sir, we've received two letters. Which one is to be taken serious?" - because enforcing UK laws like the Benn Act is not the EU's job. Any other reaction would set a dangerous precedent, and would be felt as meddling in national matters.


besides it is illegal, the EU could also just ignore the second letter and accept the first.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
User avatar
flyingturtle
Posts: 5656
Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:39 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:04 pm

I know it would be illegal for Boris Johnson to send a second letter, refuting the first. But the Benn Act is not applicable concerning the EU, neither in Brussels nor in Strasbourg.

As for the EU honoring the first letter and rejecting the second, it would set a terrible precedent - heads of governments could send honest letters to the EU, laying out their true policies, and they must be prepared that the EU will ignore it. If I were Jean-Claude Juncker, I'd play it 100% safe and ask BoJo which letter follow.

Though I want UK to remain in the EU, I still think the Benn Act is a terrible piece of legislation, encroaching upon matters that have, for centuries, been firmly in the hands of the government.
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 10035
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 14, 2019 7:21 pm

These are not normal times and Johnson isn't a normal Prime Minister, since in a democracy Parliament is the highest authority in the land, it makes sense to limit the movement of this PM.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9049
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:28 pm

Aesma wrote:
The EU parliament (admittedly not the EU council) has said in advance that the UK parliament is sovereign, so it will take into account that letter.

Usually the UK government has credibility through the support of the UK parliament, but the current UK government hasn't proven it has that support, in fact it hasn't been able to pass anything in parliament.

So how does the EU explain holding on to the WA deal agreed by TM government when the parliament refused to pass it numerous times, if they believe the parliament is sovereign they should state the deal is dead and initiate discussions on a new deal versus pushing parliament to vote again and again and again....
The irony here is doing what they claim the Brexiters want, having your cake and eating it too...

If the EU had announced that deal was dead since it was rejected multiple times by the parliament, it might have pushed them to work on a deal versus spend their time in negativity, by that I mean don't want this, don't want that only want one thing, no deal exit, not a good plan.
 
Klaus
Posts: 21291
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:34 pm

par13del wrote:
Aesma wrote:
The EU parliament (admittedly not the EU council) has said in advance that the UK parliament is sovereign, so it will take into account that letter.

Usually the UK government has credibility through the support of the UK parliament, but the current UK government hasn't proven it has that support, in fact it hasn't been able to pass anything in parliament.

So how does the EU explain holding on to the WA deal agreed by TM government when the parliament refused to pass it numerous times, if they believe the parliament is sovereign they should state the deal is dead and initiate discussions on a new deal versus pushing parliament to vote again and again and again....
The irony here is doing what they claim the Brexiters want, having your cake and eating it too...

No. For the EU27 that is simply the only deal on the table, take it or leave it if you've got nothing better to offer.

And all claims from Westminster notwithstanding, the "offer" we've seen so far was clearly designed to fail, so nothing serious or usable. And whether there is now something of any subtance still remains to be seen.

If the EU had announced that deal was dead since it was rejected multiple times by the parliament, it might have pushed them to work on a deal versus spend their time in negativity, by that I mean don't want this, don't want that only want one thing, no deal exit, not a good plan.

Pressure hasn't helped a bit to wring anything constructive out of the chaotic UK political class so far.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9049
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:35 pm

Dutchy wrote:
These are not normal times and Johnson isn't a normal Prime Minister, since in a democracy Parliament is the highest authority in the land, it makes sense to limit the movement of this PM.

Well this parliament and its speaker started limiting the government of the UK long before Bojo became PM, they have set precedent, time will judge the effectiveness of their actions.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9049
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:50 pm

Klaus wrote:
No. For the EU27 that is simply the only deal on the table, take it or leave it if you've got nothing better to offer.

So a question, since they appear to have left it, what does that mean, remain in the EU by extensions or leave without a deal?
So far there is no clear majority for a new referendum or revocation of article 50, so as you say, mess is correct, what I do not understand is the end game that these intelligent people are working on. If the EU grants an extension, what does that do for the parliament, I suspect an election will see the same type parliament as I don't think any party is brassy enough to campaign on leave EU deal or no deal.
 
Olddog
Topic Author
Posts: 1236
Joined: Sat Jun 25, 2016 4:41 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:05 am

It just means it is an english internal problem that they will have to solve alone. After more than 3 years asking for unicorns maybe they will finally rush out of drugs.....
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
User avatar
Dutchy
Posts: 10035
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 15, 2019 8:14 am

Perhaps, in many respects we are back at where we started 3 years ago.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 3062
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 15, 2019 10:40 am

par13del wrote:
how does the EU explain holding on to the WA deal agreed by TM government when the parliament refused to pass it numerous times, if they believe the parliament is sovereign they should state the deal is dead and initiate discussions on a new deal versus pushing parliament to vote again and again and again....



First of all, the EU isn't holding on to any dead deal at all, it just wants an orderly exit and for that a deal is needed:

The EU has proposed no less than 2 perfectly workable deals so far:
- one with a NI backstop keeping the territory in both the SM and the CU
(something which no PM could ever accept dixit TM, even though BoJo now seems to work on one via the back door!)
and through negotiations with the UK it has agreed to replace that NI only backstop by:
- a UK wide EU customs territory
Both of which were subsequently shot down from the British side, so it's really up to the UK to come up with a workable alternative plan, if indeed it doesn't want to leave disorderly (which it doesn't).

Saying the EU must initiate discussions on a new deal, when in fact its the British who haven't proposed anything new for over 6 months and have even pulled out of planned technical meetings up until recently if more than a bit unfair. The onus is entirely on the UK, not the EU: the EU technical experts and legal advisors (often called 'bureaucrats' in the tabloids) have done pretty much all of the technical and legal work so far whereas British politicians have just been dreaming about their unicorns and the different colours they may come in without any demonstrative notion nor understanding of the workings of a real economy, a FTA or global trade flows, something which is indicative of just how (ir)relevant these British politicians have been in the past for that economy. And yet these people are soon to be in sole charge of it all, once those EU bureaucrats pull out and leave the UK to go it alone!
ROTFL

Wake up and smell the coffee: Brexit is a humiliating act of self-destruction, but please make up your mind on how you want to die: don't expect others to pick the execution method for you!
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 3062
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 15, 2019 10:53 am

EU issues brutal ultimatum to BoJo:

"Give in and accept to set a customs border in the Irish Sea before midnight today, or you will have nothing to take to the Commons next week'

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -this-week
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9049
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 15, 2019 12:20 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Saying the EU must initiate discussions on a new deal, when in fact its the British who haven't proposed anything new for over 6 months and have even pulled out of planned technical meetings up until recently if more than a bit unfair.

I have to accept that even though this is a discussion forum, we expect post to be technically and legally correct.
I did not mean that the EU legally had to initiate discussions, the point I was trying to make was that only the EU stating that the TM deal was dead may push and I mean may push the parliament to come to some realization that spending resources on preventing No Deal is not the same as coming together to work on a deal that has some substance. Since they are now an integral part of the process, they need to add additional items to their arsenal to compliment the NO they have been firing off.
 
User avatar
Loew
Posts: 146
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2016 10:00 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 15, 2019 1:18 pm

"Northern Ireland would not be part of the EU’s customs territory, but the bloc’s full customs code would have to be enforced in the Irish Sea. “Northern Ireland would de jure be in the UK’s customs territory but de facto in the European union’s”, said an EU source."

Who and how is going to enforce customs code in the Irish Sea?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -this-week

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: BN747 and 56 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos