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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 11:35 am

BBC now reporting that Labour will support an early GE. Date to be decided/voted on later today.
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 11:50 am

scbriml wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:
For example, what are the Brexit Party's policies besides getting Brexit done, what's their raison d'etre once it's actually done and how will they maintain relevance unlike UKIP? How can the electorate trust that they're not going to be wasting their vote for them when you assume that will be it for another 5 years?


Maybe they'll actually bother to produce a manifesto for a GE? I find it hard to believe any sane person could vote for a party with one single policy and no idea about everything else.

In my opinion, a GE with Brexit as the central point is required to break the deadlock, just taking two points from the quotes above. How can the electorate trust.....the politicians gave the electorate a vote because they could not negotiate or agree on anything, the public voted, the politicians do not want to implement the result, whose trust are we talking about? One can argue all day about how Yes means Brino or No means No Deal, but so far after 3 years the politicians have done nothing and based on what we see, have no intention of doing anything, the only reason why this is still front page news is because the UK now has a PM who wants to do something. What is taking place in parliament today and essentially over the last 3 years has been moves to prevent any deal. If they decide on a new referendum how do they muddy the waters to get a result that will negate the result of the first, I think we can all agree that the majority in parliament and the political circles want the 2016 result reversed, unfortunately, none of them seem to have the brass to tell the people that they voted incorrectly and they should vote again for the correct result. If that were not the case they would have concluded Brino a long time ago.

How about a single policy and no idea about anything else, in the last GE rather than coming to grips with Brexit and plotting the way forward, Labour for example touted free education for the young, if you are debating the possibility of becoming a third country in dealings with the EU, can you really afford to make such promises when you have to contemplate fully running your own country, developing your own economic plans including trade without the assistance of a third party, that is what independent countries have to do and GE's is where the people get to review and approve such plans, the population in the UK as a member of the EU has been spared some of those deep thinking.

Will a GE break the deadlock, as I said in a previous post, only if the parties campaign on their positions as it relates to Brexit. In the last GE all major parties said they would respect the result of the referendum, the only reason why they did that was because all polls including those by MP's talking to their constituents said that the people wanted the vote respected, which meant Brexit in some shape or form.
No party detailed their views of the way forward for the UK with reduced a EU involvement, that is what Brexit is all about, how much of a reduction. If the parties 3 years after the vote are still debating whether the EU should have any reduction in the UK affairs then yes, the GE will solve nothing and the mess will continue. The fear will be which of the "die hards" will will win the day, the majority usually get fed up and stay home, unfortunately for them, the political system will see a government elected who will implement their policies regardless of their opinion, that is how in elected democracies, one can get a government implementing policies which all and sundry say is outside the character of a nation.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:26 pm

scbriml wrote:
BBC now reporting that Labour will support an early GE. Date to be decided/voted on later today.


I suppose they had no choice. They have said for numerous weeks now they wouldn't back an election unless no-deal is off the table. Now that Brexit has been pushed back 3 months, they would be leaving themselves wide open to accusations of being scared of the electorate etc. if they didn't back one, whether it was on Boris' terms or not.

par13del wrote:
How about a single policy and no idea about anything else, in the last GE rather than coming to grips with Brexit and plotting the way forward, Labour for example touted free education for the young, if you are debating the possibility of becoming a third country in dealings with the EU, can you really afford to make such promises when you have to contemplate fully running your own country, developing your own economic plans including trade without the assistance of a third party, that is what independent countries have to do and GE's is where the people get to review and approve such plans, the population in the UK as a member of the EU has been spared some of those deep thinking.


That's a big problem for Labour and Corbyn. Labour has been banging on lately about nationalisation of things such as the railways, water boards and the Royal Mail - all of which will cost hundreds of millions to acquire and I'm not sure if that's top of people's priorities at the moment ahead of health & social care, education, infrastructure, immigration, housing, welfare state, as well as Brexit of course.

Corbyn hasn't done himself any favours over his handling of Brexit to date. Whether it's because he's just inept at leading or isn't interested in the EU as much as some of his other pet subjects/left-wing ideology I don't know. He did better than expected in 2017 with his giveaway promises and vague stance on Brexit, but I'm not convinced he will be able to pull it off again this time round. Unless Labour improve their seat count in Westminster or get in to power, my early prediction is that Corbyn's time as leader will be up. Even though I suspect there is a hardcore of fanatics that will defend Corbyn to the hilt and will try to keep him in power for as long as possible, it's never been tenable for a leader of a political party to remain in position if they go backwards in a GE.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:41 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
That's a big problem for Labour and Corbyn. Labour has been banging on lately about nationalisation of things such as the railways, water boards and the Royal Mail - all of which will cost hundreds of millions to acquire and I'm not sure if that's top of people's priorities at the moment ahead of health & social care, education, infrastructure, immigration, housing, welfare state, as well as Brexit of course.


These are things that, IMHO, would (should) make Labour unelectable in more normal times.

Boeing74741R wrote:
Corbyn hasn't done himself any favours over his handling of Brexit to date. Whether it's because he's just inept at leading or isn't interested in the EU as much as some of his other pet subjects/left-wing ideology I don't know. He did better than expected in 2017 with his giveaway promises and vague stance on Brexit, but I'm not convinced he will be able to pull it off again this time round. Unless Labour improve their seat count in Westminster or get in to power, my early prediction is that Corbyn's time as leader will be up. Even though I suspect there is a hardcore of fanatics that will defend Corbyn to the hilt and will try to keep him in power for as long as possible, it's never been tenable for a leader of a political party to remain in position if they go backwards in a GE.


I can't see Labour winning an overall majority. I'd put it at about evens on another hung Parliament. Could we see a coalition of all the non-Tory parties? It might be good but I think too many of the other parties would not work under Corbyn as PM, but they would hopefully moderate some of Labour's wilder ideas.

par13del wrote:
In my opinion, a GE with Brexit as the central point is required to break the deadlock


This is a problem frankly - a GE is supposed to be to elect a Government for five years, not to decide a single issue. I expect a lot of people will vote Brexit Party without having a clue what their policies are on everything else.
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:46 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
That's a big problem for Labour and Corbyn. Labour has been banging on lately about nationalisation of things such as the railways, water boards and the Royal Mail - all of which will cost hundreds of millions to acquire and I'm not sure if that's top of people's priorities at the moment ahead of health & social care, education, infrastructure, immigration, housing, welfare state, as well as Brexit of course.

A question, did anyone in the UK actually put any scrutiny into his plans and whether the existing EU rules and regulations will allow him to implement his plans?
I think this shows the nature of Brexit, in the last GE everything every part proposed should have been viewed to see how Brexit affects the plans.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:52 pm

So it appears that Corbyn has been persuaded to agree to the election by his advisors, against the wishes of the majority of the shadow cabinet. :shock:

https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/statu ... 2775721984
A clear majority of our Shadow cabinet were against a December election yesterday but Jeremy Corbyn has been persuaded to override them after interventions from Seamus Milne & Karie Murphy!


What could possibly go wrong? :sarcastic:
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:52 pm

scbriml wrote:
par13del wrote:
In my opinion, a GE with Brexit as the central point is required to break the deadlock


This is a problem frankly - a GE is supposed to be to elect a Government for five years, not to decide a single issue. I expect a lot of people will vote Brexit Party without having a clue what their policies are on everything else.

I agree, but after the last GE I think we can all agree that if a GE is held before Brexit is concluded it should be a central theme, after all, Brexit would be responsible for 3 public votes in less than 5 years.
The UK has been in the EU for 40+ years, Brexit can be a major change as well as it can be simply Brino in which case not much visible to the public day to day life will change, but imagine a hard Brexit, a lot can change.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 12:54 pm

scbriml wrote:
So it appears that Corbyn has been persuaded to agree to the election by his advisors, against the wishes of the majority of the shadow cabinet. :shock:

https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/statu ... 2775721984
A clear majority of our Shadow cabinet were against a December election yesterday but Jeremy Corbyn has been persuaded to override them after interventions from Seamus Milne & Karie Murphy!


What could possibly go wrong? :sarcastic:

...any chance that a part of their strategy is to have a new leader by the time the election is called?
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 1:09 pm

scbriml wrote:
This is a problem frankly - a GE is supposed to be to elect a Government for five years, not to decide a single issue. I expect a lot of people will vote Brexit Party without having a clue what their policies are on everything else.


:checkmark: It's why I'm against a snap GE in principle and more in favour of a second referendum.

Frankly, if people vote for a single-issue party without considering what they want from domestic matters such as the NHS, then they have no right to complain if something happens that they don't like whilst Farage and co ride off into the sunset if/when Brexit is completed.

scbriml wrote:
So it appears that Corbyn has been persuaded to agree to the election by his advisors, against the wishes of the majority of the shadow cabinet. :shock:

https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/statu ... 2775721984
A clear majority of our Shadow cabinet were against a December election yesterday but Jeremy Corbyn has been persuaded to override them after interventions from Seamus Milne & Karie Murphy!


What could possibly go wrong? :sarcastic:


Oh what a surprise! I've come to the conclusion that both Milne and Cummings are both alike in terms of being bad influences on their bosses and universally disliked.

par13del wrote:
...any chance that a part of their strategy is to have a new leader by the time the election is called?


Labour MP's tried that in 2016 immediately after the referendum by calling a vote of no-confidence which Corbyn lost by 172 to 40, however the leadership contest that followed just led to Corbyn being re-elected with a bigger mandate (Owen Smith probably wasn't the best pick IMO and he was the only alternative left standing after Angela Eagle withdrew from the contest early on). Labour's better than expected performance in the 2017 GE shored up his position even more and with an intake of pro-Corbyn MP's among the numbers gained.

I suspect Labour MP's who've always been against Corbyn will bide their time, see how the election pans out and if they lose seats then whoever of his critics are still MP's will try again at deposing Corbyn if he refuses to resign.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 1:57 pm

par13del wrote:
In my opinion, a GE with Brexit as the central point is required to break the deadlock, just taking two points from the quotes above. How can the electorate trust.....the politicians gave the electorate a vote because they could not negotiate or agree on anything, the public voted, the politicians do not want to implement the result, whose trust are we talking about? One can argue all day about how Yes means Brino or No means No Deal, but so far after 3 years the politicians have done nothing and based on what we see, have no intention of doing anything, the only reason why this is still front page news is because the UK now has a PM who wants to do something. What is taking place in parliament today and essentially over the last 3 years has been moves to prevent any deal. If they decide on a new referendum how do they muddy the waters to get a result that will negate the result of the first, I think we can all agree that the majority in parliament and the political circles want the 2016 result reversed, unfortunately, none of them seem to have the brass to tell the people that they voted incorrectly and they should vote again for the correct result. If that were not the case they would have concluded Brino a long time ago.


I genuinely can't understand how you reach such conclusions...Triggering art50 without knowing at the time it could be revoked unilateraly is for me ultimate proof politicians wanted to "implement the result". And if it's not enough for you, fighting so hard to refuse a 2nd referendum, also shows they don't want to "reverse the result".

They very much tried to deliver, just did it (very) badly : engaging international negotiation of huge importance without consensus on a realistic outcome, failling to recognise the other side needs and size, and without negotiator in chief (Barnier is in place since October 2016!).
And now, like 6 months ago with May's WA, they are facing the consequences of this bad preparation, the technical reality can't be labelled "project fear" anymore, this reality isn't acceptable by an awful lot of people and MP cannot act as if they don't know.

Just an example, the public have been fed with a Brexit which doesn't threaten the UK place in SM, we hold all the cards, they need us bla-bla-bla but now the crude reality is that Brexit will mean UK out of SM, out of CU, so new trade barriers with EU (non-tariff and tariff), barriers with a lot of country they currently enjoy a deal with throught EU until superb and better deal are negotiated :roll: , non-tariff barrier between NI and GB :spit: and another no-deal cliff edge to deal with next year :faint: .

IMO it's actually a good thing for UK citizens there is still politicians left trying to stop this madness instead of going for the one and only reason they have to vote for this deal : "deliver Brexit". I'm not saying stop in the sense "revoke", but maybe time to get real with the people, seek what they really want with Brexit and build a Brexit project able to get the support of a majority and, of course, workable for EU and not altering the GFA.
Not sure GE will help to achieve that though, on the contrary. :spin:
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:25 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
I genuinely can't understand how you reach such conclusions...Triggering art50 without knowing at the time it could be revoked unilateraly is for me ultimate proof politicians wanted to "implement the result". And if it's not enough for you, fighting so hard to refuse a 2nd referendum, also shows they don't want to "reverse the result".

Triggering Article 50 starts the process, it does not mean a deal will have to be made, note that immediately after triggering, the push was on to see if it could be revoked.
Refusing the second referendum was the default position because as I mentioned, if any party had proposed that in the last GE they would have been dead at the polls, so...

The status quo is the only thing that all parties agree to, if they really wanted to implement some type of Brexit they would have put their head together, and since they changed the laws to give parliament a more direct role in the process, all of them. The TM deal was not liked, the parliament then had their indicative votes and none of those were either, and even though they voted to accept Bojo's latest deal, they immediately killed it, so other than technically saying they voted for it, did they in reality move the process forward?
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:31 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
IMO it's actually a good thing for UK citizens there is still politicians left trying to stop this madness instead of going for the one and only reason they have to vote for this deal : "deliver Brexit". I'm not saying stop in the sense "revoke", but maybe time to get real with the people, seek what they really want with Brexit and build a Brexit project able to get the support of a majority and, of course, workable for EU and not altering the GFA.
Not sure GE will help to achieve that though, on the contrary. :spin:

In my opinion, if the members of parliament really were interested in stopping the madness and protecting the people, they would have come together in 2016, based on the powers the parliament have shown the world that they have, who or what has prevented them from seeking whatever information they want from the people or coming up with a Brexit project?
Parliament inserted themselves fully into the process - whether the EU agreed or not - so they cannot now claim that it is solely the responsibility of government to negotiate a deal and present it to them for approval or disapproval.
So a genuine question can be, who is responsible for the madness presently taking place in the UK, only Bojo?
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:37 pm

scbriml wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:
For example, what are the Brexit Party's policies besides getting Brexit done, what's their raison d'etre once it's actually done and how will they maintain relevance unlike UKIP? How can the electorate trust that they're not going to be wasting their vote for them when you assume that will be it for another 5 years?


Maybe they'll actually bother to produce a manifesto for a GE? I find it hard to believe any sane person could vote for a party with one single policy and no idea about everything else.


I think you may be surprised (in your case negatively) how many people will vote for the Brexit Party if their manifesto contains only one line stating that they want a hard Brexit.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:53 pm

If they approve a new GE, what could a basic party position be on Brexit?
1. If elected, we will have a new referendum on Brexit not on any deal but Brexit in this form or that form.
2. If elected, we will implement one of the two deal's already negotiated, TM or BoJo.
3. If elected, we will respect the results of the 2016 referendum.
4. Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU and revisit the option of leaving at some later date.

Other than number 4, all others now require some input from the EU, that is the mess that lack of leadership has created.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:57 pm

LJ wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:
For example, what are the Brexit Party's policies besides getting Brexit done, what's their raison d'etre once it's actually done and how will they maintain relevance unlike UKIP? How can the electorate trust that they're not going to be wasting their vote for them when you assume that will be it for another 5 years?


Maybe they'll actually bother to produce a manifesto for a GE? I find it hard to believe any sane person could vote for a party with one single policy and no idea about everything else.


I think you may be surprised (in your case negatively) how many people will vote for the Brexit Party if their manifesto contains only one line stating that they want a hard Brexit.

In case this is sparked by my post, I am not saying one line, I am saying Brexit and what should be done should be the main item on any party manifesto, did not think I needed to specifically state that detail.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 3:39 pm

par13del wrote:
If they approve a new GE, what could a basic party position be on Brexit?
1. If elected, we will have a new referendum on Brexit not on any deal but Brexit in this form or that form.
2. If elected, we will implement one of the two deal's already negotiated, TM or BoJo.
3. If elected, we will respect the results of the 2016 referendum.
4. Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU and revisit the option of leaving at some later date.

Other than number 4, all others now require some input from the EU, that is the mess that lack of leadership has created.


Your second and third option are the same, did you mean leaving the EU without a deal? Will be interesting to see what the Brexit party will do. If Johnson is going to advocate his deal and the Brexit party a no deal, that vote might be split and the seat might go to Libdem or Corbyn's party.
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 3:39 pm

par13del wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
I genuinely can't understand how you reach such conclusions...Triggering art50 without knowing at the time it could be revoked unilateraly is for me ultimate proof politicians wanted to "implement the result". And if it's not enough for you, fighting so hard to refuse a 2nd referendum, also shows they don't want to "reverse the result".

Triggering Article 50 starts the process, it does not mean a deal will have to be made, note that immediately after triggering, the push was on to see if it could be revoked.
Refusing the second referendum was the default position because as I mentioned, if any party had proposed that in the last GE they would have been dead at the polls, so...

The status quo is the only thing that all parties agree to, if they really wanted to implement some type of Brexit they would have put their head together, and since they changed the laws to give parliament a more direct role in the process, all of them. The TM deal was not liked, the parliament then had their indicative votes and none of those were either, and even though they voted to accept Bojo's latest deal, they immediately killed it, so other than technically saying they voted for it, did they in reality move the process forward?


Yes they did it badly, but they meant it. I just find unfair when you say they don't want to implement the result, or want to overturn it.

par13del wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
IMO it's actually a good thing for UK citizens there is still politicians left trying to stop this madness instead of going for the one and only reason they have to vote for this deal : "deliver Brexit". I'm not saying stop in the sense "revoke", but maybe time to get real with the people, seek what they really want with Brexit and build a Brexit project able to get the support of a majority and, of course, workable for EU and not altering the GFA.
Not sure GE will help to achieve that though, on the contrary. :spin:

In my opinion, if the members of parliament really were interested in stopping the madness and protecting the people, they would have come together in 2016, based on the powers the parliament have shown the world that they have, who or what has prevented them from seeking whatever information they want from the people or coming up with a Brexit project?
Parliament inserted themselves fully into the process - whether the EU agreed or not - so they cannot now claim that it is solely the responsibility of government to negotiate a deal and present it to them for approval or disapproval.
So a genuine question can be, who is responsible for the madness presently taking place in the UK, only Bojo?

Sure we can now say they should have acted differently, but again that doesn't mean they didn't do their best to implement Brexit.
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 4:56 pm

Dutchy wrote:
par13del wrote:
If they approve a new GE, what could a basic party position be on Brexit?
1. If elected, we will have a new referendum on Brexit not on any deal but Brexit in this form or that form.
2. If elected, we will implement one of the two deal's already negotiated, TM or BoJo.
3. If elected, we will respect the results of the 2016 referendum.
4. Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU and revisit the option of leaving at some later date.

Other than number 4, all others now require some input from the EU, that is the mess that lack of leadership has created.


Your second and third option are the same, did you mean leaving the EU without a deal? Will be interesting to see what the Brexit party will do. If Johnson is going to advocate his deal and the Brexit party a no deal, that vote might be split and the seat might go to Libdem or Corbyn's party.

Naw, 2 and 3 are very different, 2 gives the deals that have already been negotiated. Your comment on number 3 shows just how polarizing the issue is and being a main theme of a GE is probably required. Item 3 relates to the question Yes or No on the EU, nowhere in the question did it say Hard Brexit, Brino, Norway+, stay in the CU thus maintaining the 4 pillars, it just said Yes or No, which has resulted in the mess that exist. This is what a GE or second referendum need to clear up, but since everyone is busy on preventing no deal rather than clarifying a position to take to the EU.......
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:14 pm

GE prediction of professor J. Curtice, the UK's leading election expert with an excellent track record on predicting the brexit referendum result as well as the 2 most recent election results in 2015 and 2017:

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/ ... prediction

in a nutshell:

A record number of non-Conservative nor Labour MPs will be elected

Only 100 seats are really safe

No majority for either of the 2 big parties (!)

SNP to take almost all seats in Scotland, LibDems will do extremely well in the South

It's an assymetric election: if Johnson does not win a majority, he's out as the others can work together, whereas he has no friends left

If the Conservatives are denied their majortity, Brexit is finished
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:20 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
If the Conservatives are denied their majortity, Brexit is finished


We live in hope! :wink2:

I shall be doing my bit to reduce the Tory MP count by one.
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:09 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
GE prediction of professor J. Curtice, the UK's leading election expert with an excellent track record on predicting the brexit referendum result as well as the 2 most recent election results in 2015 and 2017:

I will wait until the parties announce their platforms before attempting a prediction, at this time I honestly do not believe that the Tory party is the only one that the folks are upset with, but time will tell.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 8:09 pm

Uk is about to have GE with the frequence like Italy.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 11:12 pm

olle wrote:
Uk is about to have GE with the frequence like Italy.


It’s actually embarrassing. More PM’s than australia at this rate.
No bumps. No bangs - Concorde
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Oct 29, 2019 11:32 pm

At least the people of the UK now have a chance to vote for or against Brexit after three years of a grand Punch-n-Judy show.
I can imagine that Revoke will win as it was pretty close during the referendum and many "undecided" would probably not want a Brexit mess in the first place, whatever form.
It would not surprise me if the LibDems become #1.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:19 am

It's impossible to call, because everything is - in a sense - unprecedented. There's never really been an election anything like this one:

- Will the public forget (they seem to have, but they'll be reminded) that BoJo closed down parliament illegally.
- What an utter and complete disaster Corbyn has been. He's always been a socialist, but as a champion of the working person, he should have been out banging the drum for the working person and all that the EU has done for them; instead he's been a walking weathervane with very little leadership shown.
- I agree that the LibDems will be do very well; it's the only party that's been resolute in supporting EU membership.
- What will Farage do? Will he run candidates against Tories? Could be a huge boon for the LibDems if he did.
- Will Donny stay out of the British election? Can't see him resisting the urge to, which could undermine any party he supports (mostly likely the Tories)?
- How dirty will it be? VERY, I suspect - probably the dirtiest ever and I can see actual violence being a part of it; the language we've seen in recent weeks and months has been extremely unpleasant, with comments such as "treason", "remoaner filth" and similar being bandied about.
- What will happen in NI? Unfortunately, I don't see a massive seismic shift, BUT it would be terrific if the DUP were dealt a massive electoral blow for their blinkered approach and their steadfastness in ignoring the will of the majority in NI and fighting tooth and nail against anything that might give NI an advantage (which it now has).
- If there's one positive, it might be that turnout should be the highest ever; it's rather difficult to sit on the fence on this one. Will the hundreds of thousands who came of age since the Brexit referendum make a difference; after all, it's their futures that have been squandered without their being able to do anything about it. The demographic analysis will be fascinating, when all the dust has settled.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Oct 30, 2019 8:36 am

Dieuwer wrote:
At least the people of the UK now have a chance to vote for or against Brexit after three years of a grand Punch-n-Judy show.


The problem is that Brexit will either become conflated with other issues or take a lesser priority over domestic policies the parties will try and promise the electorate. I can understand the latter as some domestic issues have been neglected or overshadowed over the last 3 years, but there's no denying Brexit is still the biggest single issue of the day.

kaitak wrote:
- What will Farage do? Will he run candidates against Tories? Could be a huge boon for the LibDems if he did.


It might also help Labour as Brexit Party Limited will no doubt split the leave vote and make life difficult for the Tories in marginal seats they're targeting on the grounds that they voted leave, as well as the seats they lost in 2017 that they will want back (e.g. Crewe & Nantwich, Weaver Vale).

As for the Lib Dems, it will be interesting. We've been here before where they've had a big bounce in the polls after Nick Clegg came out of the first televised debate in 2010 very well only for them to not gain seats (partly down the voting system, partly down to voters reverting to type and voting Labour or Conservative in the end).
 
Scotron12
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Oct 30, 2019 8:54 am

scbriml wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
If the Conservatives are denied their majortity, Brexit is finished


We live in hope! :wink2:

I shall be doing my bit to reduce the Tory MP count by one.


:checkmark: that's two!! :wave:
 
ltbewr
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Oct 30, 2019 8:56 am

tommy1808 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
From a BBC news alert: Donald Tusk just announced a Brexit extension until 31st January. Now the election games will start.

I assume Boris is dead in a ditch somewhere? :rotfl:


Dang... this is the 2nd time i leave the EU thinking to come Back to one without the UK in it. I am going to stay come end of January....

Does BoJo now have to commit suicide?

Best regards
Thomas

BoJo committed political suicide months ago.

So, another extension, an election in December. Ye Gods, what a fiasco.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Oct 30, 2019 9:10 am

Boeing74741R wrote:
As for the Lib Dems, it will be interesting. We've been here before where they've had a big bounce in the polls after Nick Clegg came out of the first televised debate in 2010 very well only for them to not gain seats (partly down the voting system, partly down to voters reverting to type and voting Labour or Conservative in the end).


Sadly, because of our electoral system, far too many constituencies are safe seats for the two main parties. I moved house last year and my previous constituency was a very safe Tory seat. It honestly made no difference if I voted or not, we were always going to end up with a Tory MP. The Lib Dems were always in second place with Labour nowhere. Even if all the Labour voters voted Lib Dem, it would still be a safe Tory seat. The council was split pretty much 50-50 Tory & Lib Dem with one or two token Labour councillors.

My new constituency is different and for the first time in my life, my vote will actually matter. Amber Rudd, our sitting MP, had a majority of just over 300 at the 2017 election. It's a close race between the Tories and Labour. Unfortunately, the Lib Dems are nowhere. As much as I would like to elect a Lib Dem MP, it would pretty much be a wasted vote. So, I shall use my vote tactically and will almost certainly vote Labour as I dislike that idea slightly less than voting Tory.

I have a feeling that we'll see a lot more tactical voting than in most, if not all, previous elections.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Oct 30, 2019 10:57 am

scbriml wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:
As for the Lib Dems, it will be interesting. We've been here before where they've had a big bounce in the polls after Nick Clegg came out of the first televised debate in 2010 very well only for them to not gain seats (partly down the voting system, partly down to voters reverting to type and voting Labour or Conservative in the end).


Sadly, because of our electoral system, far too many constituencies are safe seats for the two main parties. I moved house last year and my previous constituency was a very safe Tory seat. It honestly made no difference if I voted or not, we were always going to end up with a Tory MP. The Lib Dems were always in second place with Labour nowhere. Even if all the Labour voters voted Lib Dem, it would still be a safe Tory seat. The council was split pretty much 50-50 Tory & Lib Dem with one or two token Labour councillors.

My new constituency is different and for the first time in my life, my vote will actually matter. Amber Rudd, our sitting MP, had a majority of just over 300 at the 2017 election. It's a close race between the Tories and Labour. Unfortunately, the Lib Dems are nowhere. As much as I would like to elect a Lib Dem MP, it would pretty much be a wasted vote. So, I shall use my vote tactically and will almost certainly vote Labour as I dislike that idea slightly less than voting Tory.

I have a feeling that we'll see a lot more tactical voting than in most, if not all, previous elections.


Rudd just announced she will not run.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Oct 30, 2019 12:21 pm

scbriml wrote:
Sadly, because of our electoral system, far too many constituencies are safe seats for the two main parties. I moved house last year and my previous constituency was a very safe Tory seat. It honestly made no difference if I voted or not, we were always going to end up with a Tory MP. The Lib Dems were always in second place with Labour nowhere. Even if all the Labour voters voted Lib Dem, it would still be a safe Tory seat. The council was split pretty much 50-50 Tory & Lib Dem with one or two token Labour councillors.

My new constituency is different and for the first time in my life, my vote will actually matter. Amber Rudd, our sitting MP, had a majority of just over 300 at the 2017 election. It's a close race between the Tories and Labour. Unfortunately, the Lib Dems are nowhere. As much as I would like to elect a Lib Dem MP, it would pretty much be a wasted vote. So, I shall use my vote tactically and will almost certainly vote Labour as I dislike that idea slightly less than voting Tory.

I have a feeling that we'll see a lot more tactical voting than in most, if not all, previous elections.


Your pre-move constituency is like mine whereby it is a safe Labour seat (Wigan - Lisa Nandy). A vote for anybody else is pretty much wasted as Labour have represented the constituency for 100 years and have an iron grip on the council, although there are a number of Tory and independent councillors. It really is one of those places where some people vote Labour "because their dad and grandad voted Labour". I wait to see how well Nandy does because the Brexit Party were the number one party in the recent European elections and the area voted to leave by 60-odd percent, though Nandy did vote for the Johnson deal last week and was quoted over the summer saying something along the lines that a refusal to leave is a betrayal of democracy etc. (even though she voted against May's deal on all occasions), so I wonder if she's got the message and done enough to convince the town to stick with her.

I won't be voting Labour or Tory this time (or Brexit Party for that matter), that is for sure - I hold both parties responsible for the mess we're in now over Brexit and I speak as someone who wants to see Brexit halted. Even if my vote counts for nothing, I want to at least remind Nandy that she and Labour cannot take the town for granted and additionally, I've never voted Labour and struggle to bring myself round to voting for them, especially for as long as Corbyn is leader. I suspect though a lot of people round here will revert to type and vote Labour.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Oct 30, 2019 12:30 pm

scbriml wrote:
I have a feeling that we'll see a lot more tactical voting than in most, if not all, previous elections.


Word of warning: I'm a bit sceptical about the tactical.vote website as it recommends Labour in my seat based only on the previous 2017 election - in the meantime the European and council elections showed a big swing towards LibDem and the region as a whole is more orange than red...
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Oct 30, 2019 12:51 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
Rudd just announced she will not run.


Doesn't surprise me, but me voting against her would not be directed at her personally, but at the Tory party. I say that as someone who has always previously voted Conservative.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:51 pm

Will the Brexit party run?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:57 pm

I would be surprised if they don't. Farage needs a seat somewhere, otherwise, he would have to work for a living . :lol:
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Bostrom
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:13 am

scbriml wrote:
My new constituency is different and for the first time in my life, my vote will actually matter. Amber Rudd, our sitting MP, had a majority of just over 300 at the 2017 election. It's a close race between the Tories and Labour. Unfortunately, the Lib Dems are nowhere. As much as I would like to elect a Lib Dem MP, it would pretty much be a wasted vote. So, I shall use my vote tactically and will almost certainly vote Labour as I dislike that idea slightly less than voting Tory.

I have a feeling that we'll see a lot more tactical voting than in most, if not all, previous elections.


Boeing74741R wrote:
Your pre-move constituency is like mine whereby it is a safe Labour seat (Wigan - Lisa Nandy). A vote for anybody else is pretty much wasted as Labour have represented the constituency for 100 years and have an iron grip on the council, although there are a number of Tory and independent councillors. It really is one of those places where some people vote Labour "because their dad and grandad voted Labour". I wait to see how well Nandy does because the Brexit Party were the number one party in the recent European elections and the area voted to leave by 60-odd percent, though Nandy did vote for the Johnson deal last week and was quoted over the summer saying something along the lines that a refusal to leave is a betrayal of democracy etc. (even though she voted against May's deal on all occasions), so I wonder if she's got the message and done enough to convince the town to stick with her.

I won't be voting Labour or Tory this time (or Brexit Party for that matter), that is for sure - I hold both parties responsible for the mess we're in now over Brexit and I speak as someone who wants to see Brexit halted. Even if my vote counts for nothing, I want to at least remind Nandy that she and Labour cannot take the town for granted and additionally, I've never voted Labour and struggle to bring myself round to voting for them, especially for as long as Corbyn is leader. I suspect though a lot of people round here will revert to type and vote Labour.


While I personally think the FPTP is a really bad system that should be replaced with some form of proportional system, or at least a two round system like in France, all votes actually matter. Even if they don't change who you MP is, it will send a signal: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gbDAvK42yA
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:09 am

Re-elect Boris. The only option to get things done.
No bumps. No bangs - Concorde
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:28 am

Bostrom wrote:
all votes actually matter. Even if they don't change who you MP is, it will send a signal:


Meh, you've got to be really determined to "send a message" and vote against a sitting MP in a seat with a 20,000 majority. On a cold, wet and possibly even snowy mid December day. You may not think it's wasted, but plenty do, with justification.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:31 am

Arion640 wrote:
Re-elect Boris. The only option to get things done.


Or not. :sarcastic:

Did you cancel your Brexit party tonight? Again.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:57 am

scbriml wrote:
Bostrom wrote:
all votes actually matter. Even if they don't change who you MP is, it will send a signal:


Meh, you've got to be really determined to "send a message" and vote against a sitting MP in a seat with a 20,000 majority. On a cold, wet and possibly even snowy mid December day. You may not think it's wasted, but plenty do, with justification.


Postal voting is the way forward. Fill the ballot paper in the comfort of your own home and send it off at your convenience. No need to queue up outside a polling station or get heckled by a teller asking how you voted, plus you have the perfect one-liner to respond to any canvassers if they call you up or knock on your door: "I've already voted by post and it's/it's not for you - goodbye!" *hangs up/closes door* ;)

scbriml wrote:
Did you cancel your Brexit party tonight? Again.


At least this time the Festive period is coming up so they can recoup their losses more easily by selling on champers or, if all else fails, give them away as Christmas presents. :D
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:04 am

scbriml wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Re-elect Boris. The only option to get things done.


Or not. :sarcastic:

Did you cancel your Brexit party tonight? Again.


ROTFL

I guess they even got their deposits back, since you can't keep rolling it over....

Seriously, unless Brexit happens on JAN 1st 2020 (*), I think that whatever party there might have been the first time around, it will now be a much more sober event if/when it ever happens.


(*): Given the EU's third extension allows to leave on each first day of the month prior to the ultimate new date of JAN 31st, theoretically a New Year's departure is possible if the Tories would secure a large enough majority, although the EP must also be willing to cooperate: not sure MEPs are going to be willing to postpone their holidays and extend work just to accelerate Brexit by a couple of weeks...

On the other hand, given Brexit is again extended by (most probably) 3 months, the transition period foreseen in BoJo's deal is now ridiculously small: wondering who's going to have the guts to say in the campain that a 'de facto' FOURTH extension is thus one of the very first things the new government will have to negotiate with the EU -this time of the transition period-, before and totally unrelated to any type of FTA or other kind of relationship that they may have in mind later? Or are we again going to see a campaign fought on illusions and fake promisses when it comes to Britain's bargaining position vs the EU? Forget about campain promisses about what kind of fantastic deals Britain will be able to conclude internationally if only you vote for the Tories: under this Parliament soon to be elected, not a single British FTA will come into effect...not unless they do not extend the transition period and thus go for the cliff edge after all, but then it would be good to say so upfront and straight out.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:38 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
Postal voting is the way forward.


You're preaching to the converted here, but I'm endlessly surprised how few people do it.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:10 pm

scbriml wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Re-elect Boris. The only option to get things done.


Or not. :sarcastic:

Did you cancel your Brexit party tonight? Again.


Lesser of two evils my friend. I see up thread you stated you’re voting labour. Thanks for helping to self destruct the economy :checkmark:
No bumps. No bangs - Concorde
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:17 pm

Arion640 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Re-elect Boris. The only option to get things done.


Or not. :sarcastic:

Did you cancel your Brexit party tonight? Again.


Lesser of two evils my friend. I see up thread you stated you’re voting labour. Thanks for helping to self destruct the economy :checkmark:


What economy?
If the Tories had their way, the UK wouldn't be exporting much (if anything) anyway...
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:48 pm

scbriml wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:
Postal voting is the way forward.


You're preaching to the converted here, but I'm endlessly surprised how few people do it.


It's fun to walk to the local village hall and wonder who votes for BP... My money's on the guy who parked across the pavement in his Bentley (no joke).
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:56 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Or not. :sarcastic:

Did you cancel your Brexit party tonight? Again.


Lesser of two evils my friend. I see up thread you stated you’re voting labour. Thanks for helping to self destruct the economy :checkmark:


What economy?
If the Tories had their way, the UK wouldn't be exporting much (if anything) anyway...


The 2nd largest in Europe. By your views then, it doesn’t matter who I vote for as it’s going to get wrecked anyway!
No bumps. No bangs - Concorde
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:40 pm

Arion640 wrote:
I see up thread you stated you’re voting labour.


I said I was considering it. Subtle difference.

Arion640 wrote:
Thanks for helping to self destruct the economy


The thing leave voters started, you mean? I saw on the news it was estimated that continued lack of clarity and turmoil around Brexit was actually less detrimental to the economy than Boris's deal. :rotfl:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:35 pm

When a man named Donald phones in to Nigel Farge’s show on LBC.

General election 2019: Donald Trump criticises Johnson's Brexit deal https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50252285
No bumps. No bangs - Concorde
 
CPH-R
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:35 pm

Dutchy wrote:
I would be surprised if they don't. Farage needs a seat somewhere, otherwise, he would have to work for a living . :lol:

He's still an MEP, and if Brexit does happen, I'm sure one of his financial backers will set him up with a cozy sinecure, like the ones Boris Johnson enjoyed prior to becoming a PM. No chance of him having to work for a living any time soon.

Brexit Party Ltd. are holding their cards close to their chest though, to the point they've ordered a social media blackout amongst their employees, in order to prevent their plans from being leaked. Word on the street is that they'll aim at an electoral pact with the Tories, so they won't stand in margical districts, but will stand where the Tories probably won't win, but where a high proportion of Leave voters might be persuaded to vote for them.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:26 pm

Arion640 wrote:
When a man named Donald phones in to Nigel Farge’s show on LBC.

General election 2019: Donald Trump criticises Johnson's Brexit deal https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50252285

I would not worry about POTUS, either the past (Obama) or the current (Trump) both of them made / make their opinions known in public.
No one paid any attention to the Russians until after the votes, so look in the dark pay no attention to those in public.

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