A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Dec 29, 2019 5:19 pm

Looks like the realty of the UK leaving is starting to hit home. Maybe the EU should curb it’s ambitions for defence and let NATO do the heavy lifting on defence instead of duplication

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.the ... st-savings
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:11 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
LJ wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:

Which EU propaganda did you read that allowed you to believe this opinion?


Read the articles below. Should you not convice (as you'll probably dismiss The Guardian as being a source of information), the last link contains a video where she mentions this to the EU Parliament in person. At no point she thinks that a no-deal will do the EU more harm than the UK. Thus how you think the tables are turned is somewhat strange considerng Von Leyen's comments.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/18/cliff-edge-brexit-will-hurt-uk-more-than-eu-says-von-der-leyen
https://www.dw.com/en/eus-ursula-von-der-leyen-very-worried-about-cliff-edge-brexit/a-51814107
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnsons-deadline-on-trade-talks-could-hamper-brexit-deal-with-eu-says-ursula-von-der-leyen-wlp6gxhg5
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-50836365/brexit-will-harm-uk-more-than-eu-warns-ursula-von-der-leyen


The objective Guardian newspaper.

The true home of the truth LOL.


Did you watch the video in the last link? Seems hat the Guardian wasn't off track on this.

A101 wrote:
Looks like the realty of the UK leaving is starting to hit home. Maybe the EU should curb it’s ambitions for defence and let NATO do the heavy lifting on defence instead of duplication


However, Trump wants the EU to increase spending on defence (and relying on NATO is thus no option). Anyway, the whole discussion in the EU is about either shrinking the EU budget (as some Northern countries want) compared to those who want to increase spending.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:40 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
A very worried European Union.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics ... -leyen/amp

The tables have turned.

von der Leyen is indeed worried that the UK is still on its self-destructive course by restricting its own options to a time frame which won't allow for a really substantial trade deal to be finished. All that dawdling on the UK side has now wasted much of the transition phase so the UK has less and less hope of getting a good deal in the little time that still remains.

As always, though, the damage from Boris' course will be most severe on the UK. The EU doesn't welcome such self-harm and will see some effects, too, but comparatively minor ones.

So no, no "tables have turned": The UK still has the short end of the stick. UK-domestic propaganda just keeps misrepresenting the actual situation, as usual.


Which EU propaganda did you read that allowed you to believe this opinion?

Unfortunately for you, if you strip off any propaganda regardless of its slant, the cold, hard facts alone already say the same thing.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Dec 29, 2019 7:05 pm

LJ wrote:
What is more worrying is that the article also mentions thet the EU intends to distroy the UK financial sector,

The EU has no active interest in that, but the Brexit chosen by the UK could indeed have that consequence.

whereas it's the EU which is offering the UK a present by alreatdy offering "regulatory oversight equivalance", which it usually uses as a method to punish countries (see Switzerland).

Equivalence is granted by the EU if and as long as the other country scrupulously sticks to the stipulations of the agreement.

If the other country chooses to abandon its obligations, however, that equivalence will be broken and the EU will also cancel the benefits which are based on those obligations.

Choices have consequences, nothing more than that to it.

Then again, we probably should be pleased that the UK thinks they are winning the war and consider them the strongest. Usually in negotiations, this means it will give in the most in the end.

It looks a lot as if Boris is still aiming for a crash-out Brexit with just the barest minimum of relations. Otherwise it would have made no sense to limit the negotiation period that aggressively as he's done.
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Dec 29, 2019 7:13 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
LJ wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:

Which EU propaganda did you read that allowed you to believe this opinion?


Read the articles below. Should you not convice (as you'll probably dismiss The Guardian as being a source of information), the last link contains a video where she mentions this to the EU Parliament in person. At no point she thinks that a no-deal will do the EU more harm than the UK. Thus how you think the tables are turned is somewhat strange considerng Von Leyen's comments.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/18/cliff-edge-brexit-will-hurt-uk-more-than-eu-says-von-der-leyen
https://www.dw.com/en/eus-ursula-von-der-leyen-very-worried-about-cliff-edge-brexit/a-51814107
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnsons-deadline-on-trade-talks-could-hamper-brexit-deal-with-eu-says-ursula-von-der-leyen-wlp6gxhg5
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-50836365/brexit-will-harm-uk-more-than-eu-warns-ursula-von-der-leyen


The objective Guardian newspaper.

The true home of the truth LOL.


Speaking of propaganda, as David Henig asks : as anyone analysed the accuracy of UK medias about UK EU talks since 2016?

Would make a very interesting study :scratchchin:

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status ... 62497?s=19
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Dec 29, 2019 7:47 pm

Klaus wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
von der Leyen is indeed worried that the UK is still on its self-destructive course by restricting its own options to a time frame which won't allow for a really substantial trade deal to be finished. All that dawdling on the UK side has now wasted much of the transition phase so the UK has less and less hope of getting a good deal in the little time that still remains.

As always, though, the damage from Boris' course will be most severe on the UK. The EU doesn't welcome such self-harm and will see some effects, too, but comparatively minor ones.

So no, no "tables have turned": The UK still has the short end of the stick. UK-domestic propaganda just keeps misrepresenting the actual situation, as usual.


Which EU propaganda did you read that allowed you to believe this opinion?

Unfortunately for you, if you strip off any propaganda regardless of its slant, the cold, hard facts alone already say the same thing.


Ok Mr Time Traveller.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:29 am

noviorbis77 wrote:
Ok Mr Time Traveller.

Everyone can visit the actual, real present and look at the facts, including historical ones. The EU has a substantial history of relations to other countries and organisations, and the post-Brexit relationship with the UK will be based on the same principles.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Dec 30, 2019 4:29 pm

EU will make it as easy as possible. What Brexiters will learn is that it is not easy. The economies are tangled, intermeshed, mutually interdependent, and complex. Brexiters want to be out of the EU, and that will happen. They will not be part of the EU. And they are insisting it be done by the end of the coming year. The EU will act as a separate country, and will act in its own interest. UK, as a junior partner, has to find the mutual interests with the EU and make trade agreements. The UK was almost the sick man of Europe before joining the EU. Many of us worry it may return to the status quo ante.
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Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Dec 30, 2019 4:56 pm

Sure. But are you sure to get theses trade deals ?
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
olle
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Dec 30, 2019 5:42 pm

EU and UK will in time get FTA in the areas where it suits them. A brief simple one in one year, and up to 10 years for the more advanced areas.probably never for services. I can imagine that for some thing like financial services EU in the start will. Look between the fingers and over time be more strict in order to give the industry time to relocate to Paris or Frankfurt. In other areas where EU feels strong like manufactoring cars etc. if this is enough tosave uk car manufactoring I doubt. I think the defining factor will be how the downturn 2020 becomes. If production needs to be cut there will be no mini in uk ....
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Dec 30, 2019 6:44 pm

Klaus wrote:
Everyone can visit the actual, real present and look at the facts, including historical ones. The EU has a substantial history of relations to other countries and organisations, and the post-Brexit relationship with the UK will be based on the same principles.


Yes, unfortunately, you see many Brexiteers - Farage, Rees-Mogg and the like - still thinking that the UK is a special case and would and should be treated differently by the world and especially the EU. But it won't, as we have seen during these negotiations for the WA, the EU has it's four pillars and it will not bend the rules for the UK. The UK will have to settle for a 3rd country status, like Canada, or it needs to align itself with the EU to a certain degree, of their choosing. But indeed it is all out there, so it is all known. Just don't believe in unicorns, that's it.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:53 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
EU will make it as easy as possible. What Brexiters will learn is that it is not easy. The economies are tangled, intermeshed, mutually interdependent, and complex. Brexiters want to be out of the EU, and that will happen. They will not be part of the EU. And they are insisting it be done by the end of the coming year. The EU will act as a separate country, and will act in its own interest. UK, as a junior partner, has to find the mutual interests with the EU and make trade agreements. The UK was almost the sick man of Europe before joining the EU. Many of us worry it may return to the status quo ante.


The UK joined the EU (EEC, before i get pulled up on it) in 1973. You really can’t compare the economy of then to that of today. We are a far more populous country today, with a lot more things going on.
Great Britain: the worlds gateway to Europe.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:57 pm

Klaus wrote:
LJ wrote:
What is more worrying is that the article also mentions thet the EU intends to distroy the UK financial sector,

The EU has no active interest in that, but the Brexit chosen by the UK could indeed have that consequence.

whereas it's the EU which is offering the UK a present by alreatdy offering "regulatory oversight equivalance", which it usually uses as a method to punish countries (see Switzerland).

Equivalence is granted by the EU if and as long as the other country scrupulously sticks to the stipulations of the agreement.

If the other country chooses to abandon its obligations, however, that equivalence will be broken and the EU will also cancel the benefits which are based on those obligations.

Choices have consequences, nothing more than that to it.

Then again, we probably should be pleased that the UK thinks they are winning the war and consider them the strongest. Usually in negotiations, this means it will give in the most in the end.

It looks a lot as if Boris is still aiming for a crash-out Brexit with just the barest minimum of relations. Otherwise it would have made no sense to limit the negotiation period that aggressively as he's done.


You don’t appear to know how negotiating works. Limiting the negotiating period will put pressure on BOTH sides in order to get things moving.
Great Britain: the worlds gateway to Europe.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Dec 31, 2019 7:41 am

Arion640 wrote:
You don’t appear to know how negotiating works. Limiting the negotiating period will put pressure on BOTH sides in order to get things moving.


It will put pressure on both parties, but the extend depends on how much the EU thinks it looses should there be a no-deal and the chance of UK caving in on a particular issue. Moreover, with an additional year to prepare for a hard Brexit, the EU (but also the UK) may come to the conclusion that giving in is less desirable than a hard Brexit.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Dec 31, 2019 7:45 am

Arion640 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
EU will make it as easy as possible. What Brexiters will learn is that it is not easy. The economies are tangled, intermeshed, mutually interdependent, and complex. Brexiters want to be out of the EU, and that will happen. They will not be part of the EU. And they are insisting it be done by the end of the coming year. The EU will act as a separate country, and will act in its own interest. UK, as a junior partner, has to find the mutual interests with the EU and make trade agreements. The UK was almost the sick man of Europe before joining the EU. Many of us worry it may return to the status quo ante.


The UK joined the EU (EEC, before i get pulled up on it) in 1973. You really can’t compare the economy of then to that of today. We are a far more populous country today, with a lot more things going on.


That economy is also much more connected with other countries (especially from the EU). UK gained a lot from the EU (often to the expense of other EU countries), it will not have that benefit for free anymore after January 31st.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Dec 31, 2019 8:14 am

LJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
EU will make it as easy as possible. What Brexiters will learn is that it is not easy. The economies are tangled, intermeshed, mutually interdependent, and complex. Brexiters want to be out of the EU, and that will happen. They will not be part of the EU. And they are insisting it be done by the end of the coming year. The EU will act as a separate country, and will act in its own interest. UK, as a junior partner, has to find the mutual interests with the EU and make trade agreements. The UK was almost the sick man of Europe before joining the EU. Many of us worry it may return to the status quo ante.


The UK joined the EU (EEC, before i get pulled up on it) in 1973. You really can’t compare the economy of then to that of today. We are a far more populous country today, with a lot more things going on.


That economy is also much more connected with other countries (especially from the EU). UK gained a lot from the EU (often to the expense of other EU countries), it will not have that benefit for free anymore after January 31st.


Since when has membership to the EU SM/CU been free?


I guess it would be free if the membership fees were less than what the EU gives back for those Net Beneficiaries (18) compared to Net Contributors (10)
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:01 am

LJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
You don’t appear to know how negotiating works. Limiting the negotiating period will put pressure on BOTH sides in order to get things moving.


It will put pressure on both parties, but the extend depends on how much the EU thinks it looses should there be a no-deal and the chance of UK caving in on a particular issue. Moreover, with an additional year to prepare for a hard Brexit, the EU (but also the UK) may come to the conclusion that giving in is less desirable than a hard Brexit.


Then so be it.
Great Britain: the worlds gateway to Europe.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:02 am

LJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
EU will make it as easy as possible. What Brexiters will learn is that it is not easy. The economies are tangled, intermeshed, mutually interdependent, and complex. Brexiters want to be out of the EU, and that will happen. They will not be part of the EU. And they are insisting it be done by the end of the coming year. The EU will act as a separate country, and will act in its own interest. UK, as a junior partner, has to find the mutual interests with the EU and make trade agreements. The UK was almost the sick man of Europe before joining the EU. Many of us worry it may return to the status quo ante.


The UK joined the EU (EEC, before i get pulled up on it) in 1973. You really can’t compare the economy of then to that of today. We are a far more populous country today, with a lot more things going on.


That economy is also much more connected with other countries (especially from the EU). UK gained a lot from the EU (often to the expense of other EU countries), it will not have that benefit for free anymore after January 31st.


While we’ve also gained, don’t forget the UK has also lost a lot to other EU countries (money and Industry) at the expense of itself. Swings and roundabouts.
Great Britain: the worlds gateway to Europe.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:29 am

Arion640 wrote:
LJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

The UK joined the EU (EEC, before i get pulled up on it) in 1973. You really can’t compare the economy of then to that of today. We are a far more populous country today, with a lot more things going on.


That economy is also much more connected with other countries (especially from the EU). UK gained a lot from the EU (often to the expense of other EU countries), it will not have that benefit for free anymore after January 31st.


While we’ve also gained, don’t forget the UK has also lost a lot to other EU countries (money and Industry) at the expense of itself. Swings and roundabouts.


A net gain which is now lost to your choosing.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Dec 31, 2019 12:51 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
LJ wrote:

That economy is also much more connected with other countries (especially from the EU). UK gained a lot from the EU (often to the expense of other EU countries), it will not have that benefit for free anymore after January 31st.


While we’ve also gained, don’t forget the UK has also lost a lot to other EU countries (money and Industry) at the expense of itself. Swings and roundabouts.


A net gain which is now lost to your choosing.


I beg to differ. Our contributions put us at a loss.

I’m still waiting for you to bring up my post regarding a hard border in Ireland, dutchy.
Great Britain: the worlds gateway to Europe.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Dec 31, 2019 1:23 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

While we’ve also gained, don’t forget the UK has also lost a lot to other EU countries (money and Industry) at the expense of itself. Swings and roundabouts.


A net gain which is now lost to your choosing.


I beg to differ. Our contributions put us at a loss.


You can bag if you want, it doesn't make it true. This saga is already costing the UK economy more than the contribution. There is no evidence that the UK will do better outside the EU. There is no logical reasoning to think the UK will do better outside the EU.

But you will not accept it, so you will have to experience it for yourself. You have warned enough that it will not benefit you.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Dec 31, 2019 3:05 pm

In the current political climate it is very possible that England will continue to blame the EU for all of its problems. Brexit will not change it.
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LJ
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Dec 31, 2019 3:42 pm

Arion640 wrote:
LJ wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

The UK joined the EU (EEC, before i get pulled up on it) in 1973. You really can’t compare the economy of then to that of today. We are a far more populous country today, with a lot more things going on.


That economy is also much more connected with other countries (especially from the EU). UK gained a lot from the EU (often to the expense of other EU countries), it will not have that benefit for free anymore after January 31st.


While we’ve also gained, don’t forget the UK has also lost a lot to other EU countries (money and Industry) at the expense of itself. Swings and roundabouts.


Your industry is lost to others outside the EU. Apart from the membership, the UK has gained a lot of money due to the EU as it became the primary financial hub for all Euro related trades (including all clearing activities). This will be seriously reduced by April 2020.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Dec 31, 2019 3:45 pm

sure always possible, easier than admitting you are wrong, especially when you are committed to the lie.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:30 pm

Arion640 wrote:
The UK joined the EU (EEC, before i get pulled up on it) in 1973. You really can’t compare the economy of then to that of today. We are a far more populous country today, with a lot more things going on.

Things turned around exactly with EU membership. And the way things look another turnaround is impending with Brexit – back towards malaise, but not towards Empire any more.
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:33 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

A net gain which is now lost to your choosing.


I beg to differ. Our contributions put us at a loss.


You can bag if you want, it doesn't make it true. This saga is already costing the UK economy more than the contribution. There is no evidence that the UK will do better outside the EU. There is no logical reasoning to think the UK will do better outside the EU.

But you will not accept it, so you will have to experience it for yourself. You have warned enough that it will not benefit you.


No one truly knows.

We can read left wing tabloids and proclaim ourselves as experts, or we can wait and see how things pan out.

Your lot (Netherlands) will have to contribute more to the EU budget won’t you, after we’ve left?
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:35 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

While we’ve also gained, don’t forget the UK has also lost a lot to other EU countries (money and Industry) at the expense of itself. Swings and roundabouts.


A net gain which is now lost to your choosing.


I beg to differ. Our contributions put us at a loss.

The only way Boris and Nigel arrived at that delusional claim was by summarily ascribing all the gains only to the UK itself and all the costs only to EU membership, harebrained propaganda of the most delusional kind.

In actual reality the comparatively tiny contributions to the EU pale by far relative to the gains and benefits to be had from the membership.

But you've chosen to find that out the hard way, so there you go.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:46 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
But you will not accept it, so you will have to experience it for yourself. You have warned enough that it will not benefit you.


No one truly knows.

We can read left-wing tabloids and proclaim ourselves as experts, or we can wait and see how things pan out.


Again, if you don't know you take a huge gamble with your future. An again we there is no logical path the UK can benefit from. And again no serious academic or business person alike can point to this supposedly benefit. You want to believe in unicorns, which is your right, but don't be surprised you hit the proverbial wall yet again. Luckily for you, you have your bailout card ready and you are still an EU citizen after the UK leaves.

noviorbis77 wrote:
Your lot (Netherlands) will have to contribute more to the EU budget won’t you, after we’ve left?


Being the sore winner again.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:02 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
We can read left wing tabloids and proclaim ourselves as experts, or we can wait and see how things pan out.

It's actually you who is much more limited in their horizon by only being able to read english publications, but even there you could have a broader perspective than you do by just again limiting yourself to the more parochial and more propagandist outlets, apparently.

We on the outside automatically have a wider horizon looking at Brexit, and so far none of the predictions and expectations from the Brexit crowd has come true, but the outside expectations have in fact been mostly met by reality.

So even just by the track record so far you have no ground to stand on with your positions.

Your lot (Netherlands) will have to contribute more to the EU budget won’t you, after we’ve left?

As I said: The EU contributions are a comparatibely tiny part of the national budgets, so the equally small UK contribution (even less so the even smaller UK net contribution!) is no substantial hardship to compensate. Nobody in the EU27 is really losing any sleep about that: It's a pittance in the grand scheme of things, even if it will be fought about as usual, but that would have happened either way so it's no real change.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 1:54 am

noviorbis77 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

I beg to differ. Our contributions put us at a loss.


You can bag if you want, it doesn't make it true. This saga is already costing the UK economy more than the contribution. There is no evidence that the UK will do better outside the EU. There is no logical reasoning to think the UK will do better outside the EU.

But you will not accept it, so you will have to experience it for yourself. You have warned enough that it will not benefit you.


No one truly knows.

We can read left wing tabloids and proclaim ourselves as experts, or we can wait and see how things pan out.

Your lot (Netherlands) will have to contribute more to the EU budget won’t you, after we’ve left?


Yes absolutely. Certain countries have been having a free ride for far too long. No wonder Britain wanted out.
Great Britain: the worlds gateway to Europe.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 2:26 am

Arion640 wrote:
Yes absolutely. Certain countries have been having a free ride for far too long. No wonder Britain wanted out.

No pretense could ever be cheap enough for you lot.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 2:43 am

Klaus wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Yes absolutely. Certain countries have been having a free ride for far too long. No wonder Britain wanted out.

No pretense could ever be cheap enough for you lot.


It’s fact i’m afraid.
Great Britain: the worlds gateway to Europe.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 3:06 am

Arion640 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Yes absolutely. Certain countries have been having a free ride for far too long. No wonder Britain wanted out.

No pretense could ever be cheap enough for you lot.


It’s fact i’m afraid.

Yeah, it is, unfortunately. It's all about pretenses and scapegoats, not about any kind of substance.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:58 am

Klaus wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
No pretense could ever be cheap enough for you lot.


It’s fact i’m afraid.

Yeah, it is, unfortunately. It's all about pretenses and scapegoats, not about any kind of substance.


:checkmark:

Good 2020, we will see how Brexit progresses and if Johnson is going for the hard Brexit.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
Posts: 1445
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:58 am

Dutchy wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

It’s fact i’m afraid.

Yeah, it is, unfortunately. It's all about pretenses and scapegoats, not about any kind of substance.


:checkmark:

Good 2020, we will see how Brexit progresses and if Johnson is going for the hard Brexit.



It’s not a matter if Johnson wants a trade deal or not, it’s a matter if an acceptable deal can be reached for each party or not by Dec 20 nothing more nothing less. Just because a deal may not reached by Dec 2020 dosnt mean talks will finish it just means the UK moves out of the jurisdiction of the EU.


I’m not expecting a FTA to be completed in that time but there will be an agreement for a continuation of trade that is to all concerned in the short term, Merkel/Macron knows they need it Germany just missed going into a technical recession by the skin of its teeth. Everyone has skin in the game, Johnson has got to make it work he’s up for re-election in 24 Merkel is not standing so there is going to be a power play there for the 21 election not sure what Macron will do he goes in 22



https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.cnb ... -2020.html
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:11 am

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Yeah, it is, unfortunately. It's all about pretenses and scapegoats, not about any kind of substance.


:checkmark:

Good 2020, we will see how Brexit progresses and if Johnson is going for the hard Brexit.



It’s not a matter if Johnson wants a trade deal or not, it’s a matter if an acceptable deal can be reached for each party or not by Dec 20 nothing more nothing less. Just because a deal may not reached by Dec 2020 dosnt mean talks will finish it just means the UK moves out of the jurisdiction of the EU.


I’m not expecting a FTA to be completed in that time but there will be an agreement for a continuation of trade that is to all concerned in the short term, Merkel/Macron knows they need it Germany just missed going into a technical recession by the skin of its teeth. Everyone has skin in the game, Johnson has got to make it work he’s up for re-election in 24 Merkel is not standing so there is going to be a power play there for the 21 election not sure what Macron will do he goes in 22



https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.cnb ... -2020.html


Yes, but you need to understand that the FTA is only one thing on the plate of the EU, much more important for the UK. And as we have been saying from the beginning, it is up to the UK to see what is acceptable for you guys. It is very transparent what can and can't be done.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:56 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

:checkmark:

Good 2020, we will see how Brexit progresses and if Johnson is going for the hard Brexit.



It’s not a matter if Johnson wants a trade deal or not, it’s a matter if an acceptable deal can be reached for each party or not by Dec 20 nothing more nothing less. Just because a deal may not reached by Dec 2020 dosnt mean talks will finish it just means the UK moves out of the jurisdiction of the EU.


I’m not expecting a FTA to be completed in that time but there will be an agreement for a continuation of trade that is to all concerned in the short term, Merkel/Macron knows they need it Germany just missed going into a technical recession by the skin of its teeth. Everyone has skin in the game, Johnson has got to make it work he’s up for re-election in 24 Merkel is not standing so there is going to be a power play there for the 21 election not sure what Macron will do he goes in 22



https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.cnb ... -2020.html


Yes, but you need to understand that the FTA is only one thing on the plate of the EU, much more important for the UK. And as we have been saying from the beginning, it is up to the UK to see what is acceptable for you guys. It is very transparent what can and can't be done.


The EU-UK trade deal is only one aspect for the UK it won’t make or break the UK either, as I said earlier a majority of EU laws will roll over into domestic legislation under the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 Merkel and macron know which way their toast is buttered trade to the UK might just be the tipping point for Germany to enter a recession and before you say it it’s not a you need us more than we need you senerio it’s a fact of life all trade is important even the copra from Tuvalu is important to the EU
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:08 am

Sure, all things considered, the EU would prefer a deal, but your suggesting that the EU will give in just for Germany to avoid a recession. To be blunt, it won't so don't count on it.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Arion640
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Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:44 am

Dutchy wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

It’s fact i’m afraid.

Yeah, it is, unfortunately. It's all about pretenses and scapegoats, not about any kind of substance.


:checkmark:

Good 2020, we will see how Brexit progresses and if Johnson is going for the hard Brexit.


Well we certainly aren’t going for a hard brexit as we’ve ratified the withdrawal agreement. We will default to hard brexit if your EU parliament can’t approve it in time.

Happy new year folks. The year of brexit. The countdown is on.
Great Britain: the worlds gateway to Europe.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:58 am

still possible, there is no FTA. New deadline: end of the year.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 1:06 pm

Dutchy wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
But you will not accept it, so you will have to experience it for yourself. You have warned enough that it will not benefit you.


No one truly knows.

We can read left-wing tabloids and proclaim ourselves as experts, or we can wait and see how things pan out.


Again, if you don't know you take a huge gamble with your future. An again we there is no logical path the UK can benefit from. And again no serious academic or business person alike can point to this supposedly benefit. You want to believe in unicorns, which is your right, but don't be surprised you hit the proverbial wall yet again. Luckily for you, you have your bailout card ready and you are still an EU citizen after the UK leaves.

noviorbis77 wrote:
Your lot (Netherlands) will have to contribute more to the EU budget won’t you, after we’ve left?


Being the sore winner again.


I was merely asking a question.

Sore winner? We won in 2016.
 
Olddog
Topic Author
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 1:11 pm

I am waiting to see what the effect will be in england and wales when EU funds will stop. Because I bet that the central government will not contribute to the same areas/levels.
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 1:25 pm

As with all "central government" interventions / involvements, their are some who welcome it and others who resent, it really is no different whether it is the EU or the UK.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 2:23 pm

Dutchy wrote:
still possible, there is no FTA. New deadline: end of the year.


You just seem to keep moving the goal posts.

Originally, the WA not coming into force was supposed to be hard brexit. Now you’re saying it’s the FR/FTA. What will it be after that?
Great Britain: the worlds gateway to Europe.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 2:24 pm

Olddog wrote:
I am waiting to see what the effect will be in england and wales when EU funds will stop. Because I bet that the central government will not contribute to the same areas/levels.


Very little. There are some areas of the UK that are still in poverty even with EU funding.

The EU funding built a roundabout to nowhere 15 years ago in my local area. It still goes nowhere to this day. I’m not lying.
Great Britain: the worlds gateway to Europe.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 3:33 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
still possible, there is no FTA. New deadline: end of the year.


You just seem to keep moving the goal posts.

Originally, the WA not coming into force was supposed to be hard brexit. Now you’re saying it’s the FR/FTA. What will it be after that?


Please read up what a hard Brexit is, I don't need to spell out everything now do I?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 3:42 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
still possible, there is no FTA. New deadline: end of the year.


You just seem to keep moving the goal posts.

Originally, the WA not coming into force was supposed to be hard brexit. Now you’re saying it’s the FR/FTA. What will it be after that?

There is no surprise in any of this at all, it is simply how the actual mechanics of Brexit work:

The transition period the UK is about to enter only exists at all because the WA has been agreed between the UK and the EU. Without the WA there would not have been a transition period and the UK would have crashed out at the end of the negotiation period, so even with all the extensions at the end of this month.

With the WA now most likely being ratified, the transition period is activated until the end of this year and staves off that crash-out Brexit for another few months, with a chance to avert it if a new FTA is agreed until then.

By the very nature of Brexit a hard crash out is the default exit mode and the UK can only try to cushion that fall to some extent if it manages to win a new trade agreement with the EU which is less disruptive than the default crash out would be.

But given that Johnson has actively legislated to exclude any extension, this only leaves these options:

1. A comparatively weak and rudimentary agreement which is still quite close to a crash out and which causes massive damage to the UK economy.

2. Effectively extending the transition period, keeping the UK almost completely in alignment and – after throwing its own membership rights away – in that state of dependency to avoid the dire consequences of a hard crash out while just not calling it an extension but still continuing to negotiate.

3. Formally extending the transition period after all, overturning that posturing legislation which had always just been for show domestically anyway.

Given the complexity of the task and the gulf of divergent interests there is very little chance of an actually substantial agreement being possible which the UK can then live with in the long run.

My expectation is 2., Johnson continuing to sell his followers a bill of goods while having trouble dealing with the actual realities. From the looks of it he'd prefer 1., but he may find that a more difficult sell at home.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 3:45 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Olddog wrote:
I am waiting to see what the effect will be in england and wales when EU funds will stop. Because I bet that the central government will not contribute to the same areas/levels.


Very little. There are some areas of the UK that are still in poverty even with EU funding.

The EU funding built a roundabout to nowhere 15 years ago in my local area. It still goes nowhere to this day. I’m not lying.

So your own local politicians grabbed a bunch of european money based on false promises and just poured it down the drain instead of actually using in the interests of their constituency.

And you still don't realize what your own story actually says and about whom...?

But your story is symptomatic for Brexit as a whole: It is almost nothing but a scapegoating exercise, blaming the actual failings of an incompetent and at least in part actively vicious domestic political caste on dastardly foreigners like back in the 1930 – and it still worked because too few particularly english voters actually cared to look through that deception.
 
Olddog
Topic Author
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:37 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Very little. There are some areas of the UK that are still in poverty even with EU funding.

The EU funding built a roundabout to nowhere 15 years ago in my local area. It still goes nowhere to this day. I’m not lying.


I know that you never understood how the Eu works but it does not decide to build random roundabout. It funds project asked by your local council/city. If your area decided after that to not going on further, it is your loss.
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
LJ
Posts: 4945
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:46 pm

Klaus wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Olddog wrote:
I am waiting to see what the effect will be in england and wales when EU funds will stop. Because I bet that the central government will not contribute to the same areas/levels.


Very little. There are some areas of the UK that are still in poverty even with EU funding.

The EU funding built a roundabout to nowhere 15 years ago in my local area. It still goes nowhere to this day. I’m not lying.

So your own local politicians grabbed a bunch of european money based on false promises and just poured it down the drain instead of actually using in the interests of their constituency.

And you still don't realize what your own story actually says and about whom...?

But your story is symptomatic for Brexit as a whole: It is almost nothing but a scapegoating exercise, blaming the actual failings of an incompetent and at least in part actively vicious domestic political caste on dastardly foreigners like back in the 1930 – and it still worked because too few particularly english voters actually cared to look through that deception.


This is unfortunately the biggest misconception many people have. The EU provides the funding only and the members states decide, within a framework, which projects the funding has to go to. We see the same in Poland where they decided to use a lot of money to construct roller coasters in amusement parks instead of projects which make more sense in the long run (though they would argue that building a roller coaster increases its potential for inbound tourism). Needless to say everybody blames the EU, but as it's the local (or national) government who decide it's not fair. Then again, live isn 't fair and it's great to have a scapegoat like the EU.

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