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A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:39 am

sabenapilot wrote:

he'll let it go on for a bit longer too; after all, rememher he's the President who ran on a pro-EU platform against Mrs LePen who wanted to bring along Frexit.



Being pro-Euro does not mean he wants the UK to be a part of EU if it means we will undermines the EU, Johnson and Macron May have more in common than you realise. Macron wants a more centralised political monetary Eurozone even Corbyn is against that by voting NON leaving the UK to a hard exit actully works in his favour. The last true UK Prime Minister who actually believed in the ideals of the political union was the man who actully lied to the electorate to put us within the first place and that was aged Heath.Time will tell if the stars align


As for Mrs LePen the UK example is a lesson on what not to do and no one else has the unique circumstances of the UK in relation to the Irish situation and the GFA, I’d even go as far as saying if it wasn’t for the GFA between ROI/UK the UK most likely would have left on the original exit date.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Sep 07, 2019 9:34 am

Not really, it just means your electoral system with just one round does not encourage alliances and/or compromises....

In France, first round you choose, second run turn you eliminate the one you absolutely does not want, and it is why Le Pen lost and we could see a lot of foreign influence working toward a second round between Le Pen and Melenchon trying to squeeze the center.
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Sep 07, 2019 12:58 pm

Btw, when Kinnock's amendment are supposed to go back before parliament?
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Sep 07, 2019 2:13 pm

A101 wrote:
As for Mrs LePen the UK example is a lesson on what not to do and no one else has the unique circumstances of the UK in relation to the Irish situation and the GFA, I’d even go as far as saying if it wasn’t for the GFA between ROI/UK the UK most likely would have left on the original exit date.

Unique in the sense that even being on an island you manage to have a land border....
France, and most of continental countrys have land border with multiple neighbours. You just can't compare...
And MLP gone very, very quiet on the frexit idea for a loooong time now.
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Sep 07, 2019 5:45 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
A101 wrote:
As for Mrs LePen the UK example is a lesson on what not to do and no one else has the unique circumstances of the UK in relation to the Irish situation and the GFA, I’d even go as far as saying if it wasn’t for the GFA between ROI/UK the UK most likely would have left on the original exit date.

Unique in the sense that even being on an island you manage to have a land border....
France, and most of continental countrys have land border with multiple neighbours. You just can't compare...


Unique is due to the Belfast agreement and power sharing arrangement no other country within the EU has such an agreement, if the Scottish end up with Indy ref 2 and get independence and join the EU there is no GFA in place there isn’t going to be the hand wringing over a customs border like the Irish border, that’s what I mean about unique



Grizzly410 wrote:
[
And MLP gone very, very quiet on the frexit idea for a loooong time now.


Of course she gone quiet she lost an election and with TM a pro remain Prime Minister showing what not to do in handling negotiations and how she just virtually rolled over on the EU demands which turned the negotiations into a dog and pony show
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:33 pm

With Macron, I suspect he would have vetoed the request had May still been PM. Now May is gone and with this week’s events on record, Macron will probably realise that a new election will be forthcoming once an extension has been approved. Remember, there have been indications that an election alone would lead to an extension request being approved and the second extension came hot on the heels of the first one.

AeroVega wrote:
At his moment nothing has changed, but maybe, by October 17, UK parliament will have voted for new elections?


Unlikely. The opposition parties have all indicated they won’t support another election until the threat of no-deal at the end of next month is off the table. Despite the law being passed, that threat isn’t averted until the European Council agree to the request.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Sep 07, 2019 8:19 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:

Unlikely. The opposition parties have all indicated they won’t support another election until the threat of no-deal at the end of next month is off the table. Despite the law being passed, that threat isn’t averted until the European Council agree to the request.



All the extension is doing is kicking the can down the road , the only actual way this can be solved is by an election. extending is not solving the default postition of leaving without a deal, and no deal can be fourthcoming unless parliment signs the WA as the EU now knows if someone else besides Johnson comes to negotiate they only have feathers in their hands as the only other course of action avalible to them is revoke
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Sep 07, 2019 8:25 pm

An election is not that likely to bring things to closure though, the parliament could be even more hung than before.

As for Le Pen, she didn't have Ireland (that wasn't mentioned during the campaign, a big part of the problem), but she did have the Euro, and that was what sunk her : people like having the Euro instead of a weak Franc subject to manipulation by politicians.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Sep 07, 2019 9:39 pm

Another minister has left:

Amber Rudd MP wrote:
I have resigned from Cabinet and surrendered the Conservative Whip.

I cannot stand by as good, loyal moderate Conservatives are expelled.

I have spoken to the PM and my Association Chairman to explain.

I remain committed to the One Nation values that drew me into politics.


So who's next?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:25 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Another minister has left:

Amber Rudd MP wrote:
I have resigned from Cabinet and surrendered the Conservative Whip.

I cannot stand by as good, loyal moderate Conservatives are expelled.

I have spoken to the PM and my Association Chairman to explain.

I remain committed to the One Nation values that drew me into politics.


So who's next?


She's my MP. Despite being a leaver, she voted with the government on every single Brexit vote. If Boris can alienate and lose an MP like Rudd, I find it hard to believe he'll be leader of the Conservatives for very long (or the Conservatives will morph into a Faragesque party).
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ltbewr
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:35 pm

Ok, what if there is an attempt to do an election before Oct. 31st ? In late Sept./early October are the party conventions so would give almost no time to select replacement candidates, to get a new Parliament and PM before the current witching date.
There is nothing for sure of another delay to what, the Dec. 31st ? Even if get an extension, I doubt there would be enough time to do the real negotiations that would need to take place and in the end neither pro or anti Brexit would be happy. The GFA is still going to be a big problem.
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:35 pm

scbriml wrote:
If Boris can alienate and lose an MP like Rudd, I find it hard to believe he'll be leader of the Conservatives for very long (or the Conservatives will morph into a Faragesque party).

At what terminal size would be the question, though...!
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:47 pm

A101 wrote:
All the extension is doing is kicking the can down the road , the only actual way this can be solved is by an election. extending is not solving the default postition of leaving without a deal, and no deal can be fourthcoming unless parliment signs the WA as the EU now knows if someone else besides Johnson comes to negotiate they only have feathers in their hands as the only other course of action avalible to them is revoke

Well, there had been three options before:

• no deal
• WA
• revocation

No deal has just been kicked out of that list, effectively, with revocation now being the only viable alternative to the WA.

That is a pretty tectonic shift by itself already, further enhanced by the formerly separate opposition now united on that point with at least growing perspectives towards electoral cooperations as well, with even a chunk of Tory MPs kicked out and also part of that alliance and otherwise dangerous free agents as seen from No.10, especially with the PM now politically beaten up and kicked to a lump, without a majority and effectively being frogmarched to the Council meeting to make a request he'd rather lie dead in a ditch than actually propose, all that in a period where he stripped himself of the option of achieving anything in the Commons which he himself had prorogued...

Ahhh... Karma...! :rotfl:
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:02 am

Klaus wrote:
Well, there had been three options before:

• no deal
• WA
• revocation

No deal has just been kicked out of that list, effectively, with revocation now being the only viable alternative to the WA.


Well technically speaking all three are still on the table only that the EU knows that if anyone besides the Tories or Brexit party comes to town a no deal exit is not up for discussion, also the current WA is not up for discussion as it’s been knocked on the head three times. As I said all it has achieved if it comes to fruition is push that can done the road and once at that point it will be a Tory/ Brexit collaboration, the only way labour could be successfull is if Corbyn steps down as leader is he ready to make that call?


Klaus wrote:
That is a pretty tectonic shift by itself already,



It would have been if this amendment had been approved by Sir Christopher Chope Sir Edward Leigh
Mr Peter Bone, Nigel Mills, Sir Desmond Swayne and Sir Mike Penning

The Prime Minister must notify the European Council that he is revoking the notice of withdrawal by the UK from the European Union, given on 29 March 2017, by sending to the President of the European Council a letter in the form set out in Schedule [Revocation: form of letter from the Prime Minister to the President of the European Council].”

Member’s explanatory statement
This amendment would require the Prime Minister to revoke the notice of withdrawal by the UK from the European Union if neither the condition in sections 1(1) nor the condition in section 1(2) is satisfied.
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:21 am

Klaus wrote:
No deal has just been kicked out of that list, effectively, with revocation now being the only viable alternative to the WA.

Me thinks it is premature to deem No Deal kicked out of the list, only because the parliament has voted so.

We are talking about a country which is out of control, so it is very risky to assume any outcome impossible.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 5:34 am

Boeing74741R wrote:

AeroVega wrote:
At his moment nothing has changed, but maybe, by October 17, UK parliament will have voted for new elections?


Unlikely. The opposition parties have all indicated they won’t support another election until the threat of no-deal at the end of next month is off the table. Despite the law being passed, that threat isn’t averted until the European Council agree to the request.


But in that case the UK runs the risk that the request for extension will be rejected. If the UK wants to be sure that the request will be granted then new elections must be called before the request for extension is made. Otherwise Boris Jonson could simply get the extension, not call new elections, and crash out of the EU three months later.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 5:43 am

Is Brexit and it's multitude of extensions a meme yet?


Image
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A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 7:09 am

AeroVega wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:

AeroVega wrote:
At his moment nothing has changed, but maybe, by October 17, UK parliament will have voted for new elections?


Unlikely. The opposition parties have all indicated they won’t support another election until the threat of no-deal at the end of next month is off the table. Despite the law being passed, that threat isn’t averted until the European Council agree to the request.


But in that case the UK runs the risk that the request for extension will be rejected. If the UK wants to be sure that the request will be granted then new elections must be called before the request for extension is made. Otherwise Boris Jonson could simply get the extension, not call new elections, and crash out of the EU three months later.


Yep pending what happens if we get to the same situation then yes they either have to legislate for the government to extend again, crash out or revoke. But the elections are coming no ifs or buts, its just a matter if they are before the current deadline or after if its before then the government should form a majority if its after then it comes down to alliance building but will Corbyn lead is the next question.

Also the other question is if Macron does not veto will the EU put in a 2-5 year extension in as was proposed at one time
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 7:27 am

prebennorholm wrote:
We are talking about a country which is out of control, so it is very risky to assume any outcome impossible.


"Out of control"? Things are pretty crazy with respect to Brexit, but to characterise the UK as out of control is laughable.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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LJ
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 8:31 am

And the latest rumours are that Boris intends to ignore the law and not request extension. Sends a good message to the UK public "If you don't agree by a law, just ignore it". If a PM doesn't abide by a law, why should the general public?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-to-break-law-for-brexit-as-he-snatches-14-point-lead-over-corbyn-wdbdnzngb
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49623737

BTW if this all comes from Cummings, then I must admit he is a really nasty person. He lets the PM do the dirty work, though I wonder why on earth Boris would risk jail time for him. Apart from the fact he'll be in all history books (though not very positive, but that's probably irrelevant), I cannot see any other reason.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 8:44 am

LJ wrote:
And the latest rumours are that Boris intends to ignore the law and not request extension. Sends a good message to the UK public "If you don't agree by a law, just ignore it". If a PM doesn't abide by a law, why should the general public?


I don't know British law, but Dutch law would probably make Brexit on the 31st of October invalid. It was then a consequence of breaking the law and that can never be the case.
The EU could offer to extend the deadline till 31st of January, without Johnson asking for it. But I do not know if something like that would work.

But in the end, Britain is ruled by a government, as long as they have the confidence of the Parliament. If Johnson doesn't obey with the law, he should be sent on its way and an interim PM should go to Brussels and ask for an extension. This is the next step, who the f*ck things this man is? Ignoring the law like that, even thinking about that is beyond me and makes you instantly unfit for office.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 8:46 am

Movie time

It is good this is said to him in his face, you see that he actually has no answer to this at all. As Brussels says, there are no negotiations going on, there are no new proposals coming from Downing street 10, so as we all know, he is laying.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 8:55 am

scbriml wrote:
prebennorholm wrote:
We are talking about a country which is out of control, so it is very risky to assume any outcome impossible.


"Out of control"? Things are pretty crazy with respect to Brexit, but to characterise the UK as out of control is laughable.


I think British politics are out of control. This turned such heated debate and the consequences are so huge, the country is split that no side will and can back down again. How can a person stand up to united the shattered country? And when? Something must be done. Rory still has the right idea, get out of the EU, but stay as close as possible, Norway plus plus and have a real debate among yourself, what is the place of the UK in the world - global Britain is a unicorn -, so in the real world, with all its constraints, what do you want to be. If the outcome is a small island on the coast of EU, do the hard Brexit then and there, fine be that, if the outcome is a little room to maneuver but with less influence within the EU continue with the Norway plus model, fine be that. if the outcome is become ones more part of a powerful trading block, fine welcome back, but not with all the exceptions.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:08 am

A101 wrote:
Elections are coming no ifs or buts, its just a matter if they are before the current deadline or after if its before then the government should form a majority if its after then it comes down to alliance building but will Corbyn lead is the next question.


Indeed, although technically, it could also happen that no elections are held this year and another PM simply takes over.

The scenario is forseen in the law -albeit as a remote possibility-, yet the stars are ligning up for it if BoJo indeed intends to ignore the law on the EU summit of October the 17th.
In that case the likely political response to that (next to all the legal aspects) is going to be a vote of no confidence and the rapid installation of a caretaking PM who's main duty it will be to put the extension request with the EU in so an extraordinary EU Council can be organized…
Once this caretaking government is up and running, it really is up to the alliance in support of it to decide if and when they call elections: it could be November, it could be early 2020 or it could just complete the rest of the fixed term in fact, depending the situation and probably in sync with what the EU proposes as extension period and all with an eye on the opinion polls too of course.
BoJo really is the last chip of the Brexiteers, and he's at risk of being ousted; if he fails, Brexit as it has been defined by them (ever harder) is going to go down with him.

A101 wrote:
Also the other question is if Macron does not veto will the EU put in a 2-5 year extension in as was proposed at one time

If you have to rely on President Macron booting the UK out, you're going to get disappointed: he's being very though on Brexiteers, but he knows that the failure must be theirs to own for it to cary enough weight to be seen as a project never to try at home. He's agreed to the 2 previous extensions, and he'll go along with the next one as well.

Dutchy wrote:
in the end, Britain is ruled by this government as long as they have the confidence of the Parliament. If Johnson doesn't obey with the law, he should be sent on its way and an interim PM should go to Brussels and ask for an extension. This is the next step, who the f*ck things this man is? Ignoring the law like that, even thinking about that is beyond me and makes you instantly unfit for office.


And it's what is going to happen too.
Says a lot about Brexiteers respect for the law, the insitutions and democracy as a whole really.
"Taking back control" was it? Seems to me like it is simply "Grabbing power" and then abolishing democracy!
The power of a PM is ZERO if he has no majority in Parliament and this has been brutally demonstrated this week and it will be over the next few weeks time and time again.
BoJo is British PM in name only, he's effectively speeking on behalf of nobody but himself and a shrinking minority who's already out of power in all but name: you can take the title the crest and the flags from behind him away already…. He's just Boris Johnson, MP again…
One who won his seat with a small majority only and might very well lose it again in the next GE since his constituents are far from being impressed by his performance!
Last edited by sabenapilot on Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:10 am

LJ wrote:
And the latest rumours are that Boris intends to ignore the law and not request extension. Sends a good message to the UK public "If you don't agree by a law, just ignore it". If a PM doesn't abide by a law, why should the general public?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/boris-johnson-to-break-law-for-brexit-as-he-snatches-14-point-lead-over-corbyn-wdbdnzngb
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49623737

BTW if this all comes from Cummings, then I must admit he is a really nasty person. He lets the PM do the dirty work, though I wonder why on earth Boris would risk jail time for him. Apart from the fact he'll be in all history books (though not very positive, but that's probably irrelevant), I cannot see any other reason.



Somehow its just smoke and mirrors, because if convicted and serves a prison sentence of more than 12mths he can no longer be an Member of Parliament, somehow I don't think he will risk it
 
A3801000
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:17 am

(Reuters) - France's foreign minister said on Sunday that, as things stand, the European Union would not grant Britain an extension beyond Oct. 31 to negotiate its exit from the bloc.


Here we go ....

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:20 am

A3801000 wrote:
(Reuters) - France's foreign minister said on Sunday that, as things stand, the European Union would not grant Britain an extension beyond Oct. 31 to negotiate its exit from the bloc.


Here we go ....

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk


So there needs to change something, like new elections, a promise for a people's vote, something. Things are so dynamic that what is true today, could be totally outdated by tomorrow. We will see, I do not dare to predict anything anymore.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:23 am

sabenapilot wrote:


If you have to rely on President Macron booting the UK out, you're going to get disappointed: he's being very though on Brexiteers, but he knows that the failure must be theirs to own for it to cary enough weight to be seen as a project never to try at home. He's agreed to the 2 previous extensions, and he'll go along with the next one as well.


Well that depends on the way he sees it, what's actually going to change with an extension?

Will the EU accommodate a pro remain government in renegotiating the WA...……..I think not, Macrons not looking to see what works for a pro-remain government he's looking to what suits his agenda, if they happen to align well all's good if not well...…...
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:26 am

A3801000 wrote:
(Reuters) - France's foreign minister said on Sunday that, as things stand, the European Union would not grant Britain an extension beyond Oct. 31 to negotiate its exit from the bloc.
Here we go ....


France is upping the pressure for a regime change in the UK, that's all.

Parliament needs to finish the job it has finally started doing, that is 'to take back control', not just of the law but also of running the Brexit show, so they have to send somebody to the EU summit who not only asks for the 3rd extension, but deals with Europe in good faith too.

Expect a few more weeks full of drama in the UK over whether BoJo will or will not honour the law, with the EU piling pressure on Parliament to end all of this and then a last minute vote of no confidence in BoJo with a caretaking PM doing the job required…

I can already see the Brexit tabloids full of surrender titles the next day!
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:29 am

A3801000 wrote:
(Reuters) - France's foreign minister said on Sunday that, as things stand, the European Union would not grant Britain an extension beyond Oct. 31 to negotiate its exit from the bloc.

Here we go ....


Does the French foreign minister speak for the EU27?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:30 am

A3801000 wrote:
(Reuters) - France's foreign minister said on Sunday that, as things stand, the European Union would not grant Britain an extension beyond Oct. 31 to negotiate its exit from the bloc.


Here we go ....

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk


Yes have been reading a few articles that have suggested that since no deal looked like passing, I was actually waiting to see if the pro remain camp would report it or not being such a negative response to the legislation being enacted.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:33 am

A101 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
If you have to rely on President Macron booting the UK out, you're going to get disappointed: he's being very though on Brexiteers, but he knows that the failure must be theirs to own for it to cary enough weight to be seen as a project never to try at home. He's agreed to the 2 previous extensions, and he'll go along with the next one as well.

Well that depends on the way he sees it, what's actually going to change with an extension?


With just an extension alone, nothing indeed.
Which is why the EU as a whole wants to see some clear change in methodology added to the third request for extensino: could be an election, a referendum...
Or alternatively a new caretaking PM who comes to Brussels with completely different rethoric and possibly even the sketchy outlines of a plan to get out of this mess over time
In that case, expect a very benevolent EU Council to accept whatever this person comes and asks for.

President Macron is not going to be playing into the hands of Brexiteers, let that be clear.
Tells you a bit about the state of affairs and the skills of British politicians if Brexiteers now have to rely on the most pro-European politician in the world to take them out of the EU, doesn't it?
And these are the lot you'd want to give full control to????
PM Cummings even, maybe!
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:41 am

A101 wrote:
Macrons not looking to see what works for a pro-remain government he's looking to what suits his agenda, if they happen to align well all's good if not well...…...


Ah, the notorious error of seeing the EU as an international forum of governements where only common interests are persuit.

If that's the basis of your analysis, no wonder you're going to get it wrong, just as Brexiteers got it wrong when they predicted the EU was going to give them what they wanted because it stood to lose more from not doing so, than from doing.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:51 am

scbriml wrote:
A3801000 wrote:
(Reuters) - France's foreign minister said on Sunday that, as things stand, the European Union would not grant Britain an extension beyond Oct. 31 to negotiate its exit from the bloc.

Here we go ....


Does the French foreign minister speak for the EU27?


He doesn't have to he only has to speak for France.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:58 am

sabenapilot wrote:
A101 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
If you have to rely on President Macron booting the UK out, you're going to get disappointed: he's being very though on Brexiteers, but he knows that the failure must be theirs to own for it to cary enough weight to be seen as a project never to try at home. He's agreed to the 2 previous extensions, and he'll go along with the next one as well.

Well that depends on the way he sees it, what's actually going to change with an extension?


With just an extension alone, nothing indeed.
Which is why the EU as a whole wants to see some clear change in methodology added to the third request for extensino: could be an election, a referendum...
Or alternatively a new caretaking PM who comes to Brussels with completely different rethoric and possibly even the sketchy outlines of a plan to get out of this mess over time
In that case, expect a very benevolent EU Council to accept whatever this person comes and asks for.

President Macron is not going to be playing into the hands of Brexiteers, let that be clear.
Tells you a bit about the state of affairs and the skills of British politicians if Brexiteers now have to rely on the most pro-European politician in the world to take them out of the EU, doesn't it?
And these are the lot you'd want to give full control to????
PM Cummings even, maybe!



No not relying on the French for that, its just that that Macron see's himself as a modern era Charles de Gaulle
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 10:33 am

Let the French deliver the hard Brexit, it will only show that it was the right decision.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 10:42 am

sabenapilot wrote:
A101 wrote:
Macrons not looking to see what works for a pro-remain government he's looking to what suits his agenda, if they happen to align well all's good if not well...…...


Ah, the notorious error of seeing the EU as an international forum of governements where only common interests are persuit.

If that's the basis of your analysis, no wonder you're going to get it wrong, just as Brexiteers got it wrong when they predicted the EU was going to give them what they wanted because it stood to lose more from not doing so, than from doing.


Macron's agenda is for deeper political integration along with Merkel, but only Merkel sees Germany having to pay the lions share of it for which she is against. Any future election/referenda will be played on those lines for what it means to remain in the EU, I don't think any side can take for granted what has transpired since the referenda good and bad has come out on both sides of the divide.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 11:47 am

Merkel is on the way out, Macron has time for him.
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:25 pm

scbriml wrote:
She's my MP. Despite being a leaver, she voted with the government on every single Brexit vote. If Boris can alienate and lose an MP like Rudd, I find it hard to believe he'll be leader of the Conservatives for very long (or the Conservatives will morph into a Faragesque party).

My shock is her assault on the current government planning for no deal, 80 - 90% of spending, I am lost on that one. If her fear is that it now looks like the UK will leave the EU I am fine with her fighting that, just be up front, she is / was a team player. Little to no spending was done on preparing the UK for a major change in status, even a Norway style relationship would see changes in customs and border regulations, how many new staff have been hired and trained? A lot of third nation activities for the UK are done by EU personnel, the chancellors mantra was that he would spend on that the day before the deal, we can all accept that no financial professional thinks and or plans like that, his supposed defiance of TM in my book was as all her other red lines, just for show.

The people vote was to leave, they were given a binary choice because no one expected to loose the vote, ok fine now to repair the damage.
TM made it worse with a split cabinet, I place all the blame right there, no way can government function on such a major national issue which divided the country with a cabinet by personal consensus, leadership was required. If the cabinet was stocked with remain minister, the remain actions taken would have been expected and more time would have been spent telling the people why the results of the vote was wrong and they were doing the best they could, there would have been no dissent in cabinet since Bojo and other hard core Brexiters would not have been in cabinet. Who exactly made TM the PM, the same Remain Tories who are a part of the majority remain house.

All the confusion presently taking place in the UK is as a result of government talking about respecting the vote of 2016. Even those who are talking about a people vote are not talking about asking the question again, but asking the public to approve whatever deal is approved by parliament. It shows the significance of the 2016 vote where all parties are afraid of just coming out and saying revote, so we will let you vote on the deal with the caveat that if rejected we revoke article 50 or some such.

So the big question for parliament, rather than having all these votes on laws to prevent no deal, since they cannot pass the WA which is the only deal they are going to get, why not let the people vote on the WA? Slightly different from the current people vote campaign, those leaders know the parliament will never pass the WA, I suspect just as with 2016, they do not trust the people to play along.
Is Marcon now sticking it to the english by saying Nyet? Hmmm....
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 1:10 pm

seahawk wrote:
Let the French deliver the hard Brexit, it will only show that it was the right decision.


Is it really in France’s interests (and by extension the EU) to be doing the hard Brexiteer’s work for them? I suspect not. It also doesn’t set the tone right for whatever happens next as part of the future relationship between the UK and France/EU.

Dutchy wrote:
A3801000 wrote:
(Reuters) - France's foreign minister said on Sunday that, as things stand, the European Union would not grant Britain an extension beyond Oct. 31 to negotiate its exit from the bloc.


Here we go ....

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk


So there needs to change something, like new elections, a promise for a people's vote, something. Things are so dynamic that what is true today, could be totally outdated by tomorrow. We will see, I do not dare to predict anything anymore.


Elections are now a matter of “when”, not “if”. Boris is agitating for an election, so if he’s keen to continue his confrontation with Parliament he could promise that or accept the need for an election as a condition of the extension, then he can turn round to Parliament and say “OK, I got the extension you asked for, now we have to have an election, so vote as per the Fixed Terms Parliament Act”. In other words, use the order to request an extension by law to his advantage.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 1:15 pm

par13del wrote:
TM made it worse with a split cabinet, I place all the blame right there, no way can government function on such a major national issue which divided the country with a cabinet by personal consensus, leadership was required. If the cabinet was stocked with remain minister, the remain actions taken would have been expected and more time would have been spent telling the people why the results of the vote was wrong and they were doing the best they could, there would have been no dissent in cabinet since Bojo and other hard core Brexiters would not have been in cabinet. Who exactly made TM the PM, the same Remain Tories who are a part of the majority remain house.


May became PM because she was the last person standing to become Tory party leader after Cameron announced his resignation. The only other candidate in the running towards the end was Andrea “I’ll make a better PM because I’m a mother” Leadsom.

May’s mistake was appeasing to the Brexiteer’s with rhetoric such as “Brexit means Brexit”, “no deal is better than a bad deal” and deciding that we must leave the CU/SM. The fatal mistake was blowing her majority and getting the DUP on board which precipitated the backstop becoming the elephant in the room. Remember the cancelled press conference in Brussels because Arlene Foster kicked off over the proposal to keep Northern Ireland aligned?
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 1:18 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
Elections are now a matter of “when”, not “if”. Boris is agitating for an election, so if he’s keen to continue his confrontation with Parliament he could promise that or accept the need for an election as a condition of the extension, then he can turn round to Parliament and say “OK, I got the extension you asked for, now we have to have an election, so vote as per the Fixed Terms Parliament Act”. In other words, use the order to request an extension by law to his advantage.

Let me get this straight, parliament is trying to pass all their no deal laws before suspension because they do not trust the PM, but somehow the PM will trust them to agree to an election after he request an extension? The same parliament who has been in charge of the process and cannot pass the WA while not passing all other deals that they come up with that the EU says Nyet?
Methinks you give them too much credit.....
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 1:27 pm

A101 wrote:
Also the other question is if Macron does not veto will the EU put in a 2-5 year extension in as was proposed at one time


Good point.

So if the UK requests a 3 month extension with elections scheduled during those three months then the most likely scenario is that the EU will grant the extension.

But if not, then the EU might as well reject the extension or indeed propose a 5 year extension instead.

Either solution could put a quick end to this withdrawal fiasco.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 1:29 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
A3801000 wrote:
(Reuters) - France's foreign minister said on Sunday that, as things stand, the European Union would not grant Britain an extension beyond Oct. 31 to negotiate its exit from the bloc.
Here we go ....


France is upping the pressure for a regime change in the UK, that's all.

Parliament needs to finish the job it has finally started doing, that is 'to take back control', not just of the law but also of running the Brexit show, so they have to send somebody to the EU summit who not only asks for the 3rd extension, but deals with Europe in good faith too.

Expect a few more weeks full of drama in the UK over whether BoJo will or will not honour the law, with the EU piling pressure on Parliament to end all of this and then a last minute vote of no confidence in BoJo with a caretaking PM doing the job required…

I can already see the Brexit tabloids full of surrender titles the next day!


What I'd really like to know, and I shall watch a few French programs to get a feel for it, is what the French government thinks of having BoJo as PM for the long haul. It's very possible that Macron would like a "tough guy" in power in the UK, so that he can be the tough guy against him, just like he's doing with Trump and Bolsonaro.

Now what granting an extension or not would play in that is debatable. If you believe that a no deal Brexit is a disaster for the UK, then giving it to BoJo might be the way to go.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 1:33 pm

scbriml wrote:
A3801000 wrote:
(Reuters) - France's foreign minister said on Sunday that, as things stand, the European Union would not grant Britain an extension beyond Oct. 31 to negotiate its exit from the bloc.

Here we go ....


Does the French foreign minister speak for the EU27?


That's the question, or is it ? I'm sure there would be two camps again for and against the extension, but at the end of the day, one country is enough to make it impossible.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 1:57 pm

AeroVega wrote:
Good point.

So if the UK requests a 3 month extension with elections scheduled during those three months then the most likely scenario is that the EU will grant the extension.

But if not, then the EU might as well reject the extension or indeed propose a 5 year extension instead.

Either solution could put a quick end to this withdrawal fiasco.

What would an election solve, the political class in the majority do not want Brexit or to leave the EU, what is needed is another referendum with a stay result mandated, anything else will continue the gridlock.
 
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SQ22
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 2:35 pm

A3801000 wrote:
(Reuters) - France's foreign minister said on Sunday that, as things stand, the European Union would not grant Britain an extension beyond Oct. 31 to negotiate its exit from the bloc.


Here we go ....

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk


Please always provide a link to a source when posting facts, otherwise these posts will be removed.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-brita ... KKCN1VT08U
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 3:36 pm

One thing that strikes me with that debacle in the UK politics is the totally abnormal weight that unelected advisers have.

Nick Timothy and Dominic Cummings bear an enormous unchecked responsibility.
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:14 pm

par13del wrote:
scbriml wrote:
She's my MP. Despite being a leaver, she voted with the government on every single Brexit vote. If Boris can alienate and lose an MP like Rudd, I find it hard to believe he'll be leader of the Conservatives for very long (or the Conservatives will morph into a Faragesque party).

My shock is her assault on the current government planning for no deal, 80 - 90% of spending, I am lost on that one.


OK, first up I typed 'leaver' but in fact she's a 'remainer'! Sorry.

However, she has voted with the Government on every single Brexit vote. So, despite being a remainer, she has tried her best to deliver a Brexit deal.

She resigned because, as everyone outside Parliament suspects, Johnson's Government have no real interest in doing a deal with the EU and nearly all their efforts are going into preparation for no deal. They're not really trying to get a deal.

Boris has gone from 1/1,000,000 chance of no deal, to 50-50, to odds-on no deal in the space of a few weeks. :rotfl: :banghead:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:55 pm

scbriml wrote:
par13del wrote:
scbriml wrote:
She's my MP. Despite being a leaver, she voted with the government on every single Brexit vote. If Boris can alienate and lose an MP like Rudd, I find it hard to believe he'll be leader of the Conservatives for very long (or the Conservatives will morph into a Faragesque party).

My shock is her assault on the current government planning for no deal, 80 - 90% of spending, I am lost on that one.


OK, first up I typed 'leaver' but in fact she's a 'remainer'! Sorry.

However, she has voted with the Government on every single Brexit vote. So, despite being a remainer, she has tried her best to deliver a Brexit deal.

She resigned because, as everyone outside Parliament suspects, Johnson's Government have no real interest in doing a deal with the EU and nearly all their efforts are going into preparation for no deal. They're not really trying to get a deal.

Boris has gone from 1/1,000,000 chance of no deal, to 50-50, to odds-on no deal in the space of a few weeks. :rotfl: :banghead:



There’s no other way the odds could go to get a deal or not it’s 50-50, if anything Its than that.


So what do you think this magical plan from labour is, Will labour insist that the back stop must go as well before signing up. What is their solution?
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