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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:47 pm

Well, enough is enough I would say. The House is losing a good speaker, who really enjoyed the role.
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:49 pm

Olddog wrote:
And now, for more fun to come:

LONDON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Britain's Queen Elizabeth on Monday gave final approval to a piece of legislation which seeks to prevent Prime Minister Boris Johnson from taking the country out of the European Union without an exit deal on Oct. 31.

The step, known as Royal Assent, is effectively a rubber-stamp from the monarch for the law which passed through parliament last week despite opposition from the government. The Royal Assent was announced in parliament's upper chamber, the House of Lords.


So, next move by Johnson would be.......

The House is prorogued or not?
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:53 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Well, enough is enough I would say. The House is losing a good speaker, who really enjoyed the role.

Let's see how history judges him, as some would say, the systems and the institutions are more important than any one single individual and or goal.
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:56 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Add NATO, talk about independency.............

BTW also a zillion other by lateral deals.


Sure, but the UK participated in shaping all those deals and/or agreed to them voluntarily. That's independent enough for me.

Let me ask again: What UK red line(s), if dropped, could lead to a better WA for the UK?
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:00 pm

par13del wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Well, enough is enough I would say. The House is losing a good speaker, who really enjoyed the role.

Let's see how history judges him, as some would say, the systems and the institutions are more important than any one single individual and or goal.

History will judge him as one of the country's finest and most upstanding reformist speakers.
Just because a few don't like recent rulings, doesn't mean his actions have been incorrect.
He was elected by the house, to protect the house and he has done so with aplomb. This has been recognised by all sides.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:00 pm

par13del wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Well, enough is enough I would say. The House is losing a good speaker, who really enjoyed the role.

Let's see how history judges him, as some would say, the systems and the institutions are more important than any one single individual and or goal.


Yes, say that to Johnson and his gang. But indeed let's see how history judges his role in this. There might be a drive to actually get a written constitution instead of these conventions.
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Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 09, 2019 4:20 pm

AeroVega wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Add NATO, talk about independency.............

BTW also a zillion other by lateral deals.


Sure, but the UK participated in shaping all those deals and/or agreed to them voluntarily. That's independent enough for me.

Let me ask again: What UK red line(s), if dropped, could lead to a better WA for the UK?


As I answered you upthread with all the details, I guess you are only interested in the question, not the answer.
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:07 pm

Olddog wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Add NATO, talk about independency.............

BTW also a zillion other by lateral deals.


Sure, but the UK participated in shaping all those deals and/or agreed to them voluntarily. That's independent enough for me.

Let me ask again: What UK red line(s), if dropped, could lead to a better WA for the UK?


As I answered you upthread with all the details, I guess you are only interested in the question, not the answer.


You posted the famous staircase diagram that everybody here has seen many times before. It does not answer my question at all.

The reason you cannot answer the question is because there is none. The current WA is the best the UK can get, with the exception of staying in the EU. Leaving the UK with fewer red lines only turns the UK into even more of a vassal state of the EU than the current WA.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:32 pm

AeroVega wrote:
Olddog wrote:
AeroVega wrote:

Sure, but the UK participated in shaping all those deals and/or agreed to them voluntarily. That's independent enough for me.

Let me ask again: What UK red line(s), if dropped, could lead to a better WA for the UK?


As I answered you upthread with all the details, I guess you are only interested in the question, not the answer.


You posted the famous staircase diagram that everybody here has seen many times before. It does not answer my question at all.

The reason you cannot answer the question is because there is none. The current WA is the best the UK can get, with the exception of staying in the EU. Leaving the UK with fewer red lines only turns the UK into even more of a vassal state of the EU than the current WA.


don't call vassal state, that is plain ridiculous, don't fall for the rhetoric of the Brexit fanatics.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:54 pm

Olddog wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Add NATO, talk about independency.............

BTW also a zillion other by lateral deals.


Sure, but the UK participated in shaping all those deals and/or agreed to them voluntarily. That's independent enough for me.

Let me ask again: What UK red line(s), if dropped, could lead to a better WA for the UK?


As I answered you upthread with all the details, I guess you are only interested in the question, not the answer.


The stair case is not the answer all three Prime Ministers (DC,TM &BJ)have said we would be leaving the CU/SM which means as a bare minimum the EU will want to protect the only land border between the UK/EU

The actual stair case is meaningless as only negotiations for the future relationship can be negotiated after signing the WA so it’s meaningless and it was the EU that dictated the process and phases of A50 negotiations as TM originally wanted the WA and Future relationship negotiations to run in parallel, the entire process was manipulated by the EU as they were not acting in good faith bargaining all they wanted to do was make it an example so other countries would not go down the same path.

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator
I’ll have done my job if, in the end, the deal is so tough on the British that they’d prefer to stay in the EU”.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:56 pm

Dutchy wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
Olddog wrote:

As I answered you upthread with all the details, I guess you are only interested in the question, not the answer.


You posted the famous staircase diagram that everybody here has seen many times before. It does not answer my question at all.

The reason you cannot answer the question is because there is none. The current WA is the best the UK can get, with the exception of staying in the EU. Leaving the UK with fewer red lines only turns the UK into even more of a vassal state of the EU than the current WA.


don't call vassal state, that is plain ridiculous, don't fall for the rhetoric of the Brexit fanatics.



If it quacks like a duck talks like a duck.........then it’s a duck
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:08 pm

I you would think the next few days would be dull, it seems as if the government has to release the Operation Yellowhammer document and some private communication of No10. How long before anything will be leaked to the public once handed over? Anyway devasted for BoJo. Will be interesting to see what's next in this oongoing soap opera. I would say BoJo will refuse to comply.


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/09/brexit-latest-news-eu-no-deal-bill-royal-assent-boris-johnson-parliament-politics-live?page=with:block-5d76a6548f08143ee1ae324a#block-5d76a6548f08143ee1ae324a
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:19 pm

A101 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
A3801000 wrote:
(Reuters) - France's foreign minister said on Sunday that, as things stand, the European Union would not grant Britain an extension beyond Oct. 31 to negotiate its exit from the bloc.

Here we go ....


Does the French foreign minister speak for the EU27?


He doesn't have to he only has to speak for France.


That would be your dream, but as per the last extension, words for home consumption don't match the actions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49640344
Why France is unlikely to veto delay
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A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:38 pm

scbriml wrote:
A101 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Does the French foreign minister speak for the EU27?


He doesn't have to he only has to speak for France.


That would be your dream, but as per the last extension, words for home consumption don't match the actions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49640344
Why France is unlikely to veto delay


All it does is prove my point that any nation can veto and France may or may not why be wavering.I have never said Macron will do it just that there is a chance that he may.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:46 pm

scbriml wrote:

That would be your dream, but as per the last extension, words for home consumption don't match the actions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49640344
Why France is unlikely to veto delay



From your link a rumour which has been circulating for a while:
The EU is hoping to persuade the prime minister of something they suspect he may already be open to: returning to the EU's original backstop proposal.

Remember that TM only expanded the original backstop to the whole of the UK because the DUP -who's propping up her government at the time- couldn't accept any regulatory nor legal differences between NI and GB, even though the idea would in all likeliness have been acceptable to a majority in Parliament.

BoJo is without a majority now anyway, so he may think it is worth a retry now to give NI up and save the rest of his Brexit for most of the UK, as well as his government and -probably most importantly- his face.

Of course, this is going to open up a whole can of worms because whereas there might have been just enough votes to be found by TM, the same idea is unlikely to gather enough votes now, given many labour leave-leaning MPs will not want to help BoJo go to elections with a 'win'...
Not to mention Scotland will want the same kind of deal as the Irish would…

We'll see, but something might start to move if BoJo is willing to give up NI: it's clear its the UK will will have to give as the EU isn't moving an inch.
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:08 pm

Give up NI and become a state that is actually controlled by the EU. A deal (Brino) isn't an option, there is no deal which betters what we already have, and Boris's puppetmasters clearly don't want one either. All they want is to avoid the incoming tax legislation for themselves and their cronnies.

It's no deal (rejected) or remain.
I reckon a 'non' to the extension would result in the revocation by Parliament that the majority want and the nation needs Unfortunately or rather fortunately the EU is canny enough to realise they won't be brexiteer's scapegoat and will keep extending until UK parliament reaches the decision itself. Which it will, eventually.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:15 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
scbriml wrote:

That would be your dream, but as per the last extension, words for home consumption don't match the actions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49640344
Why France is unlikely to veto delay



From your link a rumour which has been circulating for a while:
The EU is hoping to persuade the prime minister of something they suspect he may already be open to: returning to the EU's original backstop proposal.

Remember that TM only expanded the original backstop to the whole of the UK because the DUP -who's propping up her government at the time- couldn't accept any regulatory nor legal differences between NI and GB, even though the idea would in all likeliness have been acceptable to a majority in Parliament.

BoJo is without a majority now anyway, so he may think it is worth a retry now to give NI up and save the rest of his Brexit for most of the UK, as well as his government and -probably most importantly- his face.

Of course, this is going to open up a whole can of worms because whereas there might have been just enough votes to be found by TM, the same idea is unlikely to gather enough votes now, given many labour leave-leaning MPs will not want to help BoJo go to elections with a 'win'...
Not to mention Scotland will want the same kind of deal as the Irish would…

We'll see, but something might start to move if BoJo is willing to give up NI: it's clear its the UK will will have to give as the EU isn't moving an inch.



I have touched on this a few posts ago, it’s not a simple solution to the problem due to the Acts of Union 1800.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:47 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
and Boris's puppetmasters clearly don't want one either. All they want is to avoid the incoming tax legislation for themselves and their cronnies.




Unfortunately that theory doesn’t hold water as the Irish were/are against the tax plan as well, as it could cost the Irish upto4billion I lost revenue

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/eco ... 4?mode=amp
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:12 pm

AeroVega wrote:
Olddog wrote:
AeroVega wrote:

Sure, but the UK participated in shaping all those deals and/or agreed to them voluntarily. That's independent enough for me.

Let me ask again: What UK red line(s), if dropped, could lead to a better WA for the UK?


As I answered you upthread with all the details, I guess you are only interested in the question, not the answer.


You posted the famous staircase diagram that everybody here has seen many times before. It does not answer my question at all.

The reason you cannot answer the question is because there is none. The current WA is the best the UK can get, with the exception of staying in the EU. Leaving the UK with fewer red lines only turns the UK into even more of a vassal state of the EU than the current WA.


I should have know that it was really too hard for you to read the link to the House of Lord study.....
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:17 am

With NI in an anomalous but workable situation the UK could proceed with Brexit, NI would be in the UK (except for goods), the EU will cooperate with a workable WA. I still think it dumb. But the Troubles will not return and the GFA will remain in effect. I suspect that any WA will take a couple of years to fully take effect. Boris et gang will discover how difficult trade agreements are.
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:29 am

par13del wrote:
However my greater point stands, the TM government did everything they could to remain


Right, that's why she revoked article 50 and held a referendum on her deal once it was finalized and kept harping on about "Brexit means Brexit".

par13del wrote:
I thought it was BS that TM ensured that Bojo was never around when key decisions were being made but that's just me.

Completely irrelevant when BoJo was completely incapable of negotiating a deal.

Dutchy wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Which nations do you consider to be "fully independent"? It's a quaint concept, a bit like "taking back control", but probably ended around 1870 (which might explains Rees-Mogg's position since his aim is to take the country back to that year).


I wonder when they declare quitting WTO and United Nations, after all all supranational organisations get in the way of being "fully independent".

best regards
Thomas


Add NATO, talk about independency.............

BTW also a zillion other by lateral deals.


Why not withdraw from SWIFT too? Maximum independence and sovereignty!


AeroVega wrote:
Leaving the UK with fewer red lines only turns the UK into even more of a vassal state of the EU than the current WA.


So Norway, Switzerland and Iceland are Vassel States?

The Vassel State argument is complete and utter baloney, but even if it wasn't it's hilarious to see the veracity with which people object to it considering the UK's colonial history and especially considering the way that they oppressed Ireland for so long. Funny how they don't like the shoe to be on the other foot.

A101 wrote:
The actual stair case is meaningless as only negotiations for the future relationship can be negotiated after signing the WA


Guess you should have ratified the WA sooner so you still had time to negotiate with the EU before falling off the cliff. :banghead:
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zkojq
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:43 am

Image

Image
Something a little more lighthearted:

Man who built his career around lies and betrayal shocked to find out people aren’t loyal

Boris Johnson, a mop-headed bag of swamp gas that is currently squatting Downing Street, is struggling to understand why people are undermining him and working against him even though he has done the same and worse to anyone foolish enough to trust him.

Simone Williams, Professor of Clinical Psychology at the University of Croydon, explained that Mr Johnson’s bewilderment was a fascinating case study of what happens when an entitled chancer is forced to confront reality.

She explained, “It’s actually very interesting. Because he doesn’t see other people as things that matter, like cocaine or being on telly, he can’t understand why they treat him the same way he did his bosses or his spouses.

“He has always hidden behind a more powerful person who saw him as the kind of chap that the club should keep around for laughs. But now he’s at the top of the chain and, because he’s never seen people beneath him as worth cultivating, he is getting exactly what he deserves. So he’s having a bit of a meltdown.

“Frankly, It’s odd he’s facing this so late in life. Most people like him have an awakening of sorts when their parents explain that Nanny would rather spend Christmas with her own children.”


https://newsthump.com/2019/09/06/man-wh ... ent-loyal/
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ltbewr
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:36 am

Olddog wrote:
And now, for more fun to come:

LONDON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Britain's Queen Elizabeth on Monday gave final approval to a piece of legislation which seeks to prevent Prime Minister Boris Johnson from taking the country out of the European Union without an exit deal on Oct. 31.

The step, known as Royal Assent, is effectively a rubber-stamp from the monarch for the law which passed through parliament last week despite opposition from the government. The Royal Assent was announced in parliament's upper chamber, the House of Lords.


At least there are some sane persons in the UK. I wondered in past posts what and how the Queen could deal with the insanity of Brexit and either prevent or limit the damage from it. Problem is now what happens from here, if the EU will even want to talks deals with the UK.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:46 am

ltbewr wrote:
Olddog wrote:
And now, for more fun to come:

LONDON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Britain's Queen Elizabeth on Monday gave final approval to a piece of legislation which seeks to prevent Prime Minister Boris Johnson from taking the country out of the European Union without an exit deal on Oct. 31.

The step, known as Royal Assent, is effectively a rubber-stamp from the monarch for the law which passed through parliament last week despite opposition from the government. The Royal Assent was announced in parliament's upper chamber, the House of Lords.


At least there are some sane persons in the UK. I wondered in past posts what and how the Queen could deal with the insanity of Brexit and either prevent or limit the damage from it. Problem is now what happens from here, if the EU will even want to talks deals with the UK.



Really why would they, BJ is correct the only thing the EU is interested in is the WA, parliament just signaled its intention that they want to revoke A50 as they have shown they do not want the WA in its current form so parliament only has one move left revoke
 
ltbewr
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:52 am

A101 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
Olddog wrote:
And now, for more fun to come:



At least there are some sane persons in the UK. I wondered in past posts what and how the Queen could deal with the insanity of Brexit and either prevent or limit the damage from it. Problem is now what happens from here, if the EU will even want to talks deals with the UK.



Really why would they, BJ is correct the only thing the EU is interested in is the WA, parliament just signaled its intention that they want to revoke A50 as they have shown they do not want the WA in its current form so parliament only has one move left revoke


If the Parliament revokes Article 50, it will likely trigger a nasty mess in the country of protesters at each others' necks. The party Conventions will be very lively affairs. I just hope there is no violence and in the end the UK finds a new position in the EU, more like Norway.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:06 am

ltbewr wrote:
A101 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:

At least there are some sane persons in the UK. I wondered in past posts what and how the Queen could deal with the insanity of Brexit and either prevent or limit the damage from it. Problem is now what happens from here, if the EU will even want to talks deals with the UK.



Really why would they, BJ is correct the only thing the EU is interested in is the WA, parliament just signaled its intention that they want to revoke A50 as they have shown they do not want the WA in its current form so parliament only has one move left revoke


If the Parliament revokes Article 50, it will likely trigger a nasty mess in the country of protesters at each others' necks. The party Conventions will be very lively affairs. I just hope there is no violence and in the end the UK finds a new position in the EU, more like Norway.



There’s no point well in my opinion anyway we will be better off in Norway + as one of the conditions is still the four freedoms, we bail on full membership when we have a sliver of control over the EU to an institution where we will have none and pay for the privilege as well, not the least I believe that Norway will object to the UK joining the EEA. The whole idea of leaving the EU it’s to leave behind those types of arrangements.
 
blrsea
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:45 am

What happens if BoJo doesn't ask for extension and resigns at say last minute on 31st, like late evening so that there is no effective government when the deadline ends. What happens then?
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:35 am

blrsea wrote:
What happens if BoJo doesn't ask for extension and resigns at say last minute on 31st, like late evening so that there is no effective government when the deadline ends. What happens then?



I imagine it will be the deputy PM until a new PM is installed
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:43 am

A101 wrote:
There’s no point well in my opinion anyway we will be better off in Norway + as one of the conditions is still the four freedoms,


The UK has freedom of movement with the RoI, apparently that isn't a problem for souveranity....

Just like being in the WTO severely limits freedoms for trade deals, that somehow is ok too.

The UK is party to several international treaties, that place courts above UK courts, or even just arbitration above UK courts. Seems to be perfectly peachy.

The UK is signatory to dozens of bilateral investment treaties, limiting the freedom of the UK government to shape domestic policy.... doesn't seem to bother anyone.

Any leave argument that is hogwash in the face of other international relations left?

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:55 am

Olddog wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
Olddog wrote:

As I answered you upthread with all the details, I guess you are only interested in the question, not the answer.


You posted the famous staircase diagram that everybody here has seen many times before. It does not answer my question at all.

The reason you cannot answer the question is because there is none. The current WA is the best the UK can get, with the exception of staying in the EU. Leaving the UK with fewer red lines only turns the UK into even more of a vassal state of the EU than the current WA.


I should have know that it was really too hard for you to read the link to the House of Lord study.....


Sorry, I missed that link. But since you have already read the report, and you say it answers my question, why act so misteriously? Why don't you just give me a red line that, if removed, would lead to a WA that is.better for the UK than staying entirely in the EU. Then we have something concrete to discuss instead of sending insults back and forth.
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:59 am

So labour still does not want to schedule new elections now that the Benn bill has been given royal assent? Why is that?
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:03 am

So the next few months wasted and the UK still trapped in the EU. #sad
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:52 am

tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:
There’s no point well in my opinion anyway we will be better off in Norway + as one of the conditions is still the four freedoms,


The UK has freedom of movement with the RoI, apparently that isn't a problem for souveranity....
,


Me personally have never had a problem with that aspect of the agreement, but you can’t compare the Anglo-Irish CTA with the TEU as Ireland will not have judicial supremacy over UK parliment and courts





tommy1808 wrote:

Just like being in the WTO severely limits freedoms for trade deals, that somehow is ok too.


Actully no it dosnt unless there are unique circumstances like the Irish border trading under WTO is quite acceptable as long as trade is on an even keel with all members, but remember we will actully have roll over agreements as well. So it’s not too bigger deal if the EU dosnt want to play well we can’t do anything about that.


tommy1808 wrote:
The UK is party to several international treaties, that place courts above UK courts, or even just arbitration above UK courts. Seems to be perfectly peachy.


Yep I’m fine with that as they have the ability for independent arbitration or they ability to leave the treaty just like the TEU has but funny enough the withdrawl agreement does not.


tommy1808 wrote:
The UK is signatory to dozens of bilateral investment treaties, limiting the freedom of the UK government to shape domestic policy.... doesn't seem to bother anyone.




And they will have an exit clause avalible to government if the treaty no longer is in the best interests of the UK


tommy1808 wrote:
Any leave argument that is hogwash in the face of other international relations left?



You will come up with something, you are the one telling the story.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:13 am

A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
The UK is party to several international treaties, that place courts above UK courts, or even just arbitration above UK courts. Seems to be perfectly peachy.


Yep I’m fine with that as they have the ability for independent arbitration or they ability to leave the treaty just like the TEU has but funny enough the withdrawl agreement does not..


Yet it's odd that at the UK wants a free trade agreement with the USA, whilst at the same time not be governed by a foreign entity. One of the reasons why there isn't a free trade agreement between the EU and UK is due to the fact that the arbitration would be biased towards the USA (at least that was the view of many iin the EU). You can argue all you want (and attach it to the backstop), the main demand of full sovereignty combined with a FTA is simply not going to happen for any country.

If you solve the problems in NI you can leave as well. Thus either there is a way to solve the issues in NI (and thus the backstop will be going away) or there is no solution (in which case the backstop was a good idea to guarantee compliance). It's one or the other. Main thung is that the backstop can go away.

BTW I wonder if Boris will come up with with a solution to the backstop in the coming 10 days. He was so confident when he talked to Merkel that it would look really stupid if he cannot deliver anything.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:40 am

A101 wrote:
Actully no it dosnt unless there are unique circumstances like the Irish border trading under WTO is quite acceptable as long as trade is on an even keel with all members, but remember we will actully have roll over agreements as well. So it’s not too bigger deal if the EU dosnt want to play well we can’t do anything about that.


Actually, name 5 countries who trade on WTO rules only?

As for rollover agreements, which percentage of the export trade does that actually represent? 5%? 10%?

I see you still play the blame game and put it with the wrong party. GFA was signed by the government in London, not by the EU. The UK government/politicians needs to grow up and own up to the problems they cause and find a solution to it, not export their problems.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:50 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Actully no it dosnt unless there are unique circumstances like the Irish border trading under WTO is quite acceptable as long as trade is on an even keel with all members, but remember we will actully have roll over agreements as well. So it’s not too bigger deal if the EU dosnt want to play well we can’t do anything about that.


Actually, name 5 countries who trade on WTO rules only?


easy... Mauritania, Mauritania, Mauritania, Mauritania and Mauritania.

End of complete list.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:51 am

blrsea wrote:
What happens if BoJo doesn't ask for extension and resigns at say last minute on 31st, like late evening so that there is no effective government when the deadline ends. What happens then?


The recently passed act requires Johnson to report back to Parliament on, I think, 19th October. At that point he has to present the new deal he's agreed with the EU ( :rotfl: ) for vote, or ask for an extension. He can't simply twiddle his thumbs until 31st October.

Since he's adamant he will not ask for an extension, my thinking is that he'll resign on 19th if he doesn't have a new deal to put before Parliament.

AeroVega wrote:
So labour still does not want to schedule new elections now that the Benn bill has been given royal assent? Why is that?


It's been adequately explained - nobody trusts lier Johnson (can't understand why!) Plan A was to get Parliament to agree to an election, then nobody could stop him from setting the election date after 31st October. Unfortunately for him, his cunning plan was so uncunning it seems like it was dreamed up by Baldrick* himself. There is no Plan B.

zkojq wrote:
Man who built his career around lies and betrayal shocked to find out people aren’t loyal

Boris Johnson, a mop-headed bag of swamp gas that is currently squatting Downing Street, is struggling to understand why people are undermining him and working against him even though he has done the same and worse to anyone foolish enough to trust him.

Simone Williams, Professor of Clinical Psychology at the University of Croydon, explained that Mr Johnson’s bewilderment was a fascinating case study of what happens when an entitled chancer is forced to confront reality.

She explained, “It’s actually very interesting. Because he doesn’t see other people as things that matter, like cocaine or being on telly, he can’t understand why they treat him the same way he did his bosses or his spouses.

“He has always hidden behind a more powerful person who saw him as the kind of chap that the club should keep around for laughs. But now he’s at the top of the chain and, because he’s never seen people beneath him as worth cultivating, he is getting exactly what he deserves. So he’s having a bit of a meltdown.

“Frankly, It’s odd he’s facing this so late in life. Most people like him have an awakening of sorts when their parents explain that Nanny would rather spend Christmas with her own children.”


I liked her characterisation of Dominic Cummings. Very accurate. :rotfl:



* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baldrick
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:07 am

scbriml wrote:
Since he's adamant he will not ask for an extension, my thinking is that he'll resign on 19th if he doesn't have a new deal to put before Parliament.


Or he doesn´t and parliament and him play chicken, and see if he is really willing to go to Jail....

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:57 am

sabenapilot wrote:
Remember that TM only expanded the original backstop to the whole of the UK because the DUP -who's propping up her government at the time- couldn't accept any regulatory nor legal differences between NI and GB, even though the idea would in all likeliness have been acceptable to a majority in Parliament.

BoJo is without a majority now anyway, so he may think it is worth a retry now to give NI up and save the rest of his Brexit for most of the UK, as well as his government and -probably most importantly- his face.


Boris losing his majority has effectively rendered the DUP's influence obsolete. However, when there's an election and if it's another hung parliament the risk for Boris is that the DUP might remember that if they end up being the difference between a minority government and being able to command a majority for things such as the Queen's Speech and the Budget. I guess it will depend if the DUP are prepared to stomach a Corbyn-led government given his history on the subject of Northern Ireland.

AeroVega wrote:
So labour still does not want to schedule new elections now that the Benn bill has been given royal assent? Why is that?


It's because a no deal Brexit on 31st October 2019 is only averted if an Article 50 extension is granted. The legislation that was given Royal Assent binds the government by law to not seek a no deal Brexit on 31st October 2019 (because Parliament didn't trust Boris to seek a deal in time) and to formally request that extension at the next European Council meeting. As discussed up thread, I don't think a request will be turned down and to do so would leave the EU open to blame for a no deal Brexit which I don't think anybody wants, particularly Macron. It also won't help Ireland's cause either being pushed into a situation they don't want more than anybody else and, I suspect, aren't fully prepared for yet either.

The BBC article mentioned last night also makes a good point that back in April Macron had a reason to be seen as being awkward at the time due to the EP elections.

A101 wrote:
I imagine it will be the deputy PM until a new PM is installed


Officially there is no Deputy PM at the moment. The last Deputy PM was Nick Clegg. David Lidington was seen as 'de facto' as he was May's right-hand man. It's another constitutional scenario that remains untested in recent times in the event of the Prime Minister no longer being in the role for whatever reason without a replacement being asked by the Queen to form a government.

ltbewr wrote:
If the Parliament revokes Article 50, it will likely trigger a nasty mess in the country of protesters at each others' necks. The party Conventions will be very lively affairs.


Maybe - but at the end of the day it's parliamentarian's duty to put country first before personal objectives and party politics. It may not go down well with some, but at least they can consciously say they did the right thing and let history judge them more kindly.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:31 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
Maybe - but at the end of the day it's parliamentarian's duty to put country first before personal objectives and party politics. It may not go down well with some, but at least they can consciously say they did the right thing and let history judge them more kindly.

Judge them on what, what exactly is the deal that the parliament has come up with for the government to present to the EU?
Ok I am sure that we have persons who will say it is the government who is responsible for coming up with a deal, fine, they can then explain how exactly parliament can pass laws mandating what the government should and must do? If they can do that surely they can come up with a deal and force the government to implement with the EU?

As all have stated time and time again, the EU on one side waited for a proposal, got blank papers, came up with the WA, and so far the UK side has done ?????
Blame DC,TM, Bojo, the red bus, hide parliament, the speaker etc etc etc, fact of the matter is that the UK has not come up with anything, and all the activity going on now has no effect whatsoever on them getting together to propose a deal.

So revoke Article 50 and bear the consequences or pass the WA and bear the consequences, extension after extension to get a deal is no deal, the fear in the UK should be that if the EU can grant an extension with the premise that the political situation in the UK should change, what's to prevent the USA, Russia, China etc proposing a good trade deal if the UK political situation changes, after all, we all know that the UK outside of the EU is small and subject to influence. What is shocking is that after all the evidence of election tampering in even the great USA, nothing has been done in the UK, that I must admit is a puzzle, and no, I do not believe that the UK systems are so secure, we did have the Leave side placed in court so the system was open to tampering.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:40 pm

That is a valid concern. There is no logical reason why the government should be better prepared to negotiate trade deals with other countries than it was for negotiating with the EU. Can you imagine other partners the size and economic power of the EU giving the UK the time to fight between themselves and fail to even come up with a proposal? Or will they not come with a proposal that favours their own interest the most? And then there will be no revoke option, which would allow the UK to just drop the stupid idea, then the UK needs an agreement.

With every extension this becomes more and more clear. And if BoJo remains in power, imagine signing a deal with a guy who might ignore the laws of his country and then ignores all previous treaties with the EU to pay no divorce payment or a very reduced form of it. Want to make a deal with him if it is not clearly more in your interest and you can give all risk to the UK´s side?
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:53 pm

seahawk wrote:
That is a valid concern. There is no logical reason why the government should be better prepared to negotiate trade deals with other countries than it was for negotiating with the EU.


actually, it is going to be even worse. The EU has a vested interest to find a solution that doesn´t screw trade and is legal, so will accommodate the UK as far as possible.

Everybody else will no have that interest and probably think more along the lines of South Korea: Continuation agreements may be very well, but after that the UK will be desperate enough for trade deals, so we (SK) can get a better deal than we have with the EU.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:56 pm

I would not be too concerned with Bojo making trade deals, the EU has been the negotiator of deals for the UK for a long time, and we know that those deals take years to be completed.
So Bojo - if he survives - may well start a number of negotiations, but we all know that he and his negotiators and most in parliament will be long gone 10 or more years from now when the deal is actually signed. The EU as the expert on this has already stated this about the EU / UK situation, I admit that I was skeptical of this claim at first especially for a member nation who was leaving, but as you read thru the process, it is all about control from the selection of the ground to how the final product is delivered and used, so it will take years.
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:42 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
So labour still does not want to schedule new elections now that the Benn bill has been given royal assent? Why is that?


It's because a no deal Brexit on 31st October 2019 is only averted if an Article 50 extension is granted.


So why not schedule the elections to take place after October 31st? Or is the schedule not up to parliament?
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:54 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Actully no it dosnt unless there are unique circumstances like the Irish border trading under WTO is quite acceptable as long as trade is on an even keel with all members, but remember we will actully have roll over agreements as well. So it’s not too bigger deal if the EU dosnt want to play well we can’t do anything about that.


Actually, name 5 countries who trade on WTO rules only?


easy... Mauritania, Mauritania, Mauritania, Mauritania and Mauritania.

End of complete list.

best regards
Thomas

But Mauritania have some preferential trade deals. So not even Mauritania deal only on WTO rules.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:00 pm

AeroVega wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
So labour still does not want to schedule new elections now that the Benn bill has been given royal assent? Why is that?


It's because a no deal Brexit on 31st October 2019 is only averted if an Article 50 extension is granted.


So why not schedule the elections to take place after October 31st? Or is the schedule not up to parliament?

Its not about the schedule for the elections, the Fixed Term Parliament act means that only parliament can schedule an early election.
It is all about the deal on leaving the EU, whether it is the Extension deal which the parliament wants or the No Deal deal that the government wants.
The ticking timer here is the current EU extension of Article 50 which expires on 31st Oct 2019.
Once again some outside force is meddling with the English parliamentary process, if the EU had not given that extension to Oct-31, all would be well, discussions could continue in parliament for another 3 years.
My hope is that once the 31st Oct passes, the EU announces that to honor the new UK law, they have extended Article 50 to 31-Oct-2024, that should give parliament and the government enough time to accomplish what they could not in 3 years since 2016.
Yes, I am an optimist.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:00 pm

par13del wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:
Maybe - but at the end of the day it's parliamentarian's duty to put country first before personal objectives and party politics. It may not go down well with some, but at least they can consciously say they did the right thing and let history judge them more kindly.

Judge them on what, what exactly is the deal that the parliament has come up with for the government to present to the EU?


I'm referring to any MP's who have the guts to back revoking Article 50 and remaining in the EU because they believe that will be in the best interests of the country over leaving, instead of being wedding to ideology (e.g. Rees-Mogg) or toeing the party line despite their earlier stance (e.g. Javid).

AeroVega wrote:
So why not schedule the elections to take place after October 31st? Or is the schedule not up to parliament?


I'm not sure what your point is to your first question, but I will repeat that until the threat of a no deal exit has been averted Labour and most other opposition parties will not vote for parliament to be dissolved which would pave the way for elections. Despite the bill, that threat will not go away until the EU agree to another extension. They do not trust Boris whatsoever and nor do they want to play his game.

More importantly, the next general election can't be scheduled until the current parliament ends in 2022 unless MP's vote to dissolve parliament under the Fixed Terms Parliament Act (which they've voted against twice within the last week).

In any case, the boat to schedule elections before 31st October 2019 has sailed.
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:02 pm

AeroVega wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
So labour still does not want to schedule new elections now that the Benn bill has been given royal assent? Why is that?


It's because a no deal Brexit on 31st October 2019 is only averted if an Article 50 extension is granted.


So why not schedule the elections to take place after October 31st? Or is the schedule not up to parliament?

Calling an election disolves Parliament. There would be no one to stop a no deal (by revoking art50) should Boris fail to adhere to the law, resign, schedule the election for a later date than 'promised' or the EU reject an extension.

Boris may have cynically prorogued Parliament, but the house is making dam sure they will be still in session come crunch time,by denying him a snap GE now.

Basically the house is stopping a minority government act without scrutiny and outwith our democractic processes. And no matter what your view on brexit is, they are right to do so.
Last edited by ChrisKen on Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:07 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Actually, name 5 countries who trade on WTO rules only?


easy... Mauritania, Mauritania, Mauritania, Mauritania and Mauritania.

End of complete list.

best regards
Thomas

But Mauritania have some preferential trade deals. So not even Mauritania deal only on WTO rules.


I am only aware of them having developing nation status with all trade partners that matter, and hence tariffs unilaterally lifted on their exports, under a specific WTO rule for trade with developing nations.
But regardless how devastating Brexit will be, the UK wont make it into that status anyways.

Best
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:18 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
ChrisKen wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

easy... Mauritania, Mauritania, Mauritania, Mauritania and Mauritania.

End of complete list.

best regards
Thomas

But Mauritania have some preferential trade deals. So not even Mauritania deal only on WTO rules.


I am only aware of them having developing nation status with all trade partners that matter, and hence tariffs unilaterally lifted on their exports, under a specific WTO rule for trade with developing nations.
But regardless how devastating Brexit will be, the UK wont make it into that status anyways.

Best
Thomas

It was true up until a year ago when they signed off on the West African Countries region to region Economic Partnership Agreement with the EU. Therefor they are no longer WTO only.

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