ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:18 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
ChrisKen wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

easy... Mauritania, Mauritania, Mauritania, Mauritania and Mauritania.

End of complete list.

best regards
Thomas

But Mauritania have some preferential trade deals. So not even Mauritania deal only on WTO rules.


I am only aware of them having developing nation status with all trade partners that matter, and hence tariffs unilaterally lifted on their exports, under a specific WTO rule for trade with developing nations.
But regardless how devastating Brexit will be, the UK wont make it into that status anyways.

Best
Thomas

It was true up until a year ago when they signed off on the West African Countries region to region Economic Partnership Agreement with the EU. Therefor they are no longer WTO only.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:41 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
ChrisKen wrote:
But Mauritania have some preferential trade deals. So not even Mauritania deal only on WTO rules.


I am only aware of them having developing nation status with all trade partners that matter, and hence tariffs unilaterally lifted on their exports, under a specific WTO rule for trade with developing nations.
But regardless how devastating Brexit will be, the UK wont make it into that status anyways.

Best
Thomas

It was true up until a year ago when they signed off on the West African Countries region to region Economic Partnership Agreement with the EU. Therefor they are no longer WTO only.


To answer my own question: so there are none......

Nobody is trading on WTO terms only.

So that leaves the question on what percentage of export trade does the rollover deals represen, 5% or 10%.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:53 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
I'm referring to any MP's who have the guts to back revoking Article 50 and remaining in the EU because they believe that will be in the best interests of the country over leaving, instead of being wedding to ideology (e.g. Rees-Mogg) or toeing the party line despite their earlier stance (e.g. Javid).

Unfortunately, none of them had the brass to make that their default position during the last election, indeed every major party affirmed that they would respect the referendum results and leave the EU in some form or another.

I do not see the parliament or the government revoking article 50, I suspect they will see that as a betrayal of the 2016 vote. What I see as their end result is to get an extension longer than 3 months, perhaps 3 years to happen after the 2022 election to give the new government or the electorate a significant say.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:08 pm

par13del wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:
I'm referring to any MP's who have the guts to back revoking Article 50 and remaining in the EU because they believe that will be in the best interests of the country over leaving, instead of being wedding to ideology (e.g. Rees-Mogg) or toeing the party line despite their earlier stance (e.g. Javid).

Unfortunately, none of them had the brass to make that their default position during the last election, indeed every major party affirmed that they would respect the referendum results and leave the EU in some form or another.

I do not see the parliament or the government revoking article 50, I suspect they will see that as a betrayal of the 2016 vote. What I see as their end result is to get an extension longer than 3 months, perhaps 3 years to happen after the 2022 election to give the new government or the electorate a significant say.


And three more years of uncertainty, that’s an even bigger clusterfuck, but parliament has given the power to the EU to do just that
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:29 pm

A101 wrote:
And three more years of uncertainty, that’s an even bigger clusterfuck, but parliament has given the power to the EU to do just that

Parliament and the government started fighting immediately after the 2016 vote, even if a private citizen was initially put forward. Almost an entire year was spent arguing in public, cabinet, parliament, court etc. versus a collaboration to come up with a plan to trigger Article 50 and its 24 month countdown.
When triggered the fighting continued in cabinet, as stated by others red lines for appeasement versus rational thought and on and on we go, the 3 year extension will not get any new plans on the table and my suggesting it is simply that with a 3 year extension, the government and the parliament can get on with the business of whatever it is that they have to do with running the country, imagine if the EU was not still running all those things that the UK cannot or do not remember how to do.....
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:39 pm

par13del wrote:
A101 wrote:
And three more years of uncertainty, that’s an even bigger clusterfuck, but parliament has given the power to the EU to do just that

Parliament and the government started fighting immediately after the 2016 vote, even if a private citizen was initially put forward. Almost an entire year was spent arguing in public, cabinet, parliament, court etc. versus a collaboration to come up with a plan to trigger Article 50 and its 24 month countdown.
When triggered the fighting continued in cabinet, as stated by others red lines for appeasement versus rational thought and on and on we go, the 3 year extension will not get any new plans on the table and my suggesting it is simply that with a 3 year extension, the government and the parliament can get on with the business of whatever it is that they have to do with running the country, imagine if the EU was not still running all those things that the UK cannot or do not remember how to do.....


Understand completely where your coming from, but if they have to extend for that period of time the EU knows still at the end of the extension that they haven’t moved an inch what is the point of it parliment needs a good kick up the khyber, no-deal or revoke end of story.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:05 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
ChrisKen wrote:
But Mauritania have some preferential trade deals. So not even Mauritania deal only on WTO rules.


I am only aware of them having developing nation status with all trade partners that matter, and hence tariffs unilaterally lifted on their exports, under a specific WTO rule for trade with developing nations.
But regardless how devastating Brexit will be, the UK wont make it into that status anyways.

Best
Thomas

It was true up until a year ago when they signed off on the West African Countries region to region Economic Partnership Agreement with the EU. Therefor they are no longer WTO only.


Dang... good for them. Thanks for the update.

Best regards
Thomas
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sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:12 pm

Meanwhile, as the UK is still occupied with leaving, the EU is already looking ahead to the next phase, because it knows this won't be over after brexit: it's only just the start really.

The newly nominated EU commissioner for trade is Phil Hogan, a former Irish minister.
Following his nomination by the European commission’s president-designate Ursula von der Leyen, Phil Hogan is set to take over any future trade talks with the UK once the country leaves the bloc, with EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier's deputy Sabine Weyand, as his director general.

Hogan said the establishment of a full negotiating team “will take probably six to eight months once we know what the exact outcome of the (brexit) negotiations and then I expect it will take a number of years before we conclude the negotiations (on a trade deal).”

That's the time frame the EU is planning on to come to the FTA the Brexiteers want: I wonder if the UK's economy has so much time if there's no transition period at all?
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:12 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
AeroVega wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:

It's because a no deal Brexit on 31st October 2019 is only averted if an Article 50 extension is granted.


So why not schedule the elections to take place after October 31st? Or is the schedule not up to parliament?


Calling an election disolves Parliament.


Thanks, that explains it.

For reference: https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/ele ... ssolution/
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:28 pm

A101 wrote:
Understand completely where your coming from, but if they have to extend for that period of time the EU knows still at the end of the extension that they haven’t moved an inch what is the point of it parliment needs a good kick up the khyber, no-deal or revoke end of story.

On the flip side, they will have 3 years of being a "vassal" state with little to no say on what the EU is doing, they might decide that its not so bad being ruled by the EU.
The EU of course will not have to cater to the English whims or running off the reservation, so a win win for all involved.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:58 pm

AeroVega wrote:
So why not schedule the elections to take place after October 31st? Or is the schedule not up to parliament?


No. Even if Parliament had voted for a GE last night, Johnson would then go to the Queen to get her to dissolve parliament. He can then set the date for the election. The belief of many being that despite saying he wanted an election in mid-October, the date would have somehow slipped to after 31st Oct and the UK would simply fall out of the EU (exactly what Johnson and his Brextremist, self-serving cronies want).

par13del wrote:
Its not about the schedule for the elections, the Fixed Term Parliament act means that only parliament can schedule an early election.


But it was exactly about the schedule of an election. It's not Parliament that schedules an election, it's the Government. Yes, Parliament has to agree by 2/3rds, but it's the Government that schedules the date of the election. Hence the complete lack of trust that Johnson would schedule the election when he said he would.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:27 pm

scbriml wrote:
But it was exactly about the schedule of an election. It's not Parliament that schedules an election, it's the Government. Yes, Parliament has to agree by 2/3rds, but it's the Government that schedules the date of the election. Hence the complete lack of trust that Johnson would schedule the election when he said he would.


Indeed, the whole master plan of Chief Strategist Cummings was basically:

1- to have BoJo repeat every single day that he would deliver Brexit by October 31st, 'do or die', in order to buy CREDIBILITY

2- to have BoJo promise all sort of investments and extra money over summer, in order to buy POPULARITY

3- to frame BoJo as the man who takes on the established elites in a clash of PEOPLE vs PARLIAMENT

4- to have BoJo lure Parliament into agreeing to a GE to sort out the stalemate -yet hold it after October 31st- so Britain would crash out of the EU automatically…

… and than easily win those elections based on the above 3 points!

Sadly, the plan wasn't so cunning at all and it seems there's no plan B other than either risk going to jail over braking the law, sending 2 contradicting lettres to Brussels or giving up NI after all, even if that means BoJo would ironically do what no British PM would ever do (dixit TM). ;)



BTW- rumour has it Nr 10 has seen projections of election results which suggest they'd fall short of a majority in a GE held after October 31st, with the Tories losing almost all their seats in and around London (including that of the PM even, possibly!). When Cummings was questioned by angy MPs on how exactly he thought the Tories would succeed in compensating for these losses by picking up seats in Labour/leave regions where they've never picked up seats before, he basically replied that's not his problem....
It would also explain why BoJo is now suddenly trying to come up with some kind of a proposal after all: that of the original backstop!
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:58 pm

Would you really trust a poll on an outcome anymore, when you have seen polls being wrong not just in the UK but defyingthe odds around the world of late.

Even in Australia the polls were predicting a Labour landslide but the opposite happened.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:03 am

sabenapilot wrote:
That's the time frame the EU is planning on to come to the FTA the Brexiteers want: I wonder if the UK's economy has so much time if there's no transition period at all?


they are just being smart, and have the best interest of the UK in mind doing so: Having a schedule and end goal is the precondition for a legal transition period under WTO rules, so this is basically the EU saying "Look, if you act fast and smart it may take a while longer, but it could be virtually painless as far as shocks are concerned".

A101 wrote:
Would you really trust a poll on an outcome anymore, when you have seen polls being wrong not just in the UK but defyingthe odds around the world of late.

Even in Australia the polls were predicting a Labour landslide but the opposite happened.


A101 making stuff up again. You are aware that fact checking isn´t all that difficult these days, are you?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

Seems the result was within the error margins of polling and, unless you define a small lead as "landslide", no one predicted that either.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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Dreadnought
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:07 am

sabenapilot wrote:
On the flip side, they will have 3 years of being a "vassal" state with little to no say on what the EU is doing, they might decide that its not so bad being ruled by the EU.
The EU of course will not have to cater to the English whims or running off the reservation, so a win win for all involved.


In other words, the UK incurs all the costs of Brexit while enjoying none of the benefits. How is that a win/win?

From what I am hearing from my British friends, what they voted for and what they want now is that as of November 1st of this year, no EU authority, law, regulation bureaucrat or whatever has jurisdiction over the UK. The UK must have the right to pass any laws, sign any treaties, basically do whatever it wants as of 2019-11-01. Theresa May's deal did not provide that. Boris' latest proposal of "May's deal minus the backstop" does not provide that. The only thing that does that at this point is no-deal.

I believe that was Boris's intention to negotiate such a deal or something pretty close to it, which the EU would have reluctantly agreed to at the last minute (October 30th). But the chances of such a deal flew out the window when the remoaners pulled their stunts last week.

Negotiating 101 for anything - whether for a treaty or buying a washing machine: The other side must know that you are willing to walk out if you don't get what you want. Telling your negotiating team in public that no-deal is not an option completely scuppers your chances at getting any sort of reasonable deal. Imagine taking your wife to the Porsche dealership, and she tells you in front of the salesman that she will divorce you if she doesn't get that shiny 911 Turbo on display. Somehow I don't think you'll get any discount.

Sure, No-deal will be disruptive and painful for many. But the pain will be short, as all the uncertainties will be removed and the UK can go on from there with a solid legal base and not having to answer to anyone.

BTW, I've always thought the best road forward would be a worldwide free trade bloc consisting of the UK, USA, Switzerland, Japan, Australia, Canada, South Korea and maybe one or two others. These countries would have to have relatively similar labor costs and standards of living - none of this crap of sucking in a couple of poor countries to use for cheap labor. And it should remain a free trade deal only - no common governing bodies. If Canada wants to sell to Switzerland, the goods must comply to Swiss standards, end of story.

sabenapilot wrote:
Hogan said the establishment of a full negotiating team “will take probably six to eight months once we know what the exact outcome of the (brexit) negotiations and then I expect it will take a number of years before we conclude the negotiations (on a trade deal).”


A good illustration of why any rational person would want to leave the EU. Any organization that takes 6-8 months just to assemble a team and then expects negotiations to last for years is bureaucracy out of control. I've been involved in multi-billion dollar mergers which are much more complex (you are dealing with actually merging operations, finances, employees, distribution and retail networks etc) which are generally negotiated from start to finish in a few months. These government negotiators are already planning on a long series of "negotiation sessions" in nice places, spending 95% of their time and (your) money on enjoying the local spa facilities with their wives/mistresses and 5% of their time working.

I can write a free trade agreement on one page. Neither side will apply tarriffs or quotas on goods/services originating in the other country. Any complex good (automobiles etc) with > 75% domestic components will be treated as 100% domestic. Any disputes will be resolved in the courts of the country where the invoice for the goods/services was issued.

There you go. A bit extreme, you could expand it to a full page or even 2 pages. Much more than that is just bureaucratic masturbation.

Here's how you negotiate a deal. You select your team, the EU selects theirs. You put both teams on a plane to the Faroe Islands (where men are men and sheep are nervous). And you tell them that the plane only returns when they have hammered out a deal.
Democrats haven't been this angry since we took away their slaves.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:21 am

tommy1808 wrote:

A101 making stuff up again. You are aware that fact checking isn´t all that difficult these days, are you?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

Seems the result was within the error margins of polling and, unless you define a small lead as "landslide", no one predicted that either.

best regards
Thomas


:rotfl: :rotfl: maybe you should take your own advice, :rotfl: :rotfl:
You do realise i actually I go to Australia quite often and keep up with the local shenanigans friends and family tell what’s going in the heartland, and I was actully there when the election had taken place.


https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.new ... 890b6277c4
Polls predicted Labor landslide but Scott Morrison performed a ‘miracle’


For two whole years, Labor outperformed the Coalition in the only real tangible measurement the public had to rely on.



https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pu ... 515-p51nir
The latest Ipsos poll predicted Labor would win 78 lower house seats on Saturday, the minimum needed for a working parliamentary majority. Betting on seven commercial markets predicted Labor would win 83 and the Coalition 60.



https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.the ... on-wipeout
Newspoll shows Coalition is facing election wipeout


https://www.google.com.au/amp/amp.abc.n ... e/11128176
It was predicted to be the federal election Labor simply couldn't lose, but after last night's surprise Coalition win, the opinion poll may struggle to stand the test of time.


Years of polling predicted a Labor victory with exit polls putting Bill Shorten in front by 52-48



Even Sportsbet lost out around 5.2m because it was so sure of an ALP victory
Do you want some more?

https://amp.smh.com.au/federal-election ... 51oy1.html
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:34 am

Imho it is very likely that pro-Brexit parties would clear win an election in the UK. Not because the conservatives are so much ahead but because the Brexit party won´t run their own candidates if the conservative candidate is pro-leave. And combined they are something of 10-20% ahead of Labour.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:55 am

Dreadnought wrote:
I believe that was Boris's intention to negotiate such a deal or something pretty close to it, which the EU would have reluctantly agreed to at the last minute (October 30th). But the chances of such a deal flew out the window when the remoaners pulled their stunts last week.


The EU27 already knew that UK's position was weak the moment the referendum results came out. Unless you think that nobody in the EU reads UK newspapers, it was clear from the start that the country was heavily divided over Brexit. Add to this a government which didn't have a clear view from the start and there is no reason why the EU would cave in at the last hour. If you follow the news a little bit on the mainland you would know that the EU has bought time with the previous two extensions as it wasn't prepared for a hard Brexit as it should be. However, unlike half a year ago, the general view in the EU is that they're prepared and thus a hard Brexit, though undesirable, can be handled. It's not a coincidence that the Dutch secretary for Trade openly discusses the fact that an extension is may be not a good idea (as it removes any uncertainties). The only thing you can bet on is that it won't be the EU27 who pull the plug on the negotiations as they've nothing to gain with it. As such blaming the anti-Brextit MPs is really too simple. It's the incompetence of the UK government which ensures that its bargaining power and credibility is so low.

Dreadnought wrote:
BTW, I've always thought the best road forward would be a worldwide free trade bloc consisting of the UK, USA, Switzerland, Japan, Australia, Canada, South Korea and maybe one or two others. These countries would have to have relatively similar labor costs and standards of living - none of this crap of sucking in a couple of poor countries to use for cheap labor. And it should remain a free trade deal only - no common governing bodies. If Canada wants to sell to Switzerland, the goods must comply to Swiss standards, end of story.


I think you can dream a lot, but count the Swiss out as they need the access to the EU and thus aren't going to give their current status away. Add to that the FTA which South Korea, Japan and Canada have with the EU and it seems as if they prefer to do business with the EU than UK.

Dreadnought wrote:
A good illustration of why any rational person would want to leave the EU. Any organization that takes 6-8 months just to assemble a team and then expects negotiations to last for years is bureaucracy out of control.


Please have your facts straight. The UK issued the notice of withdrawal in October 2016. Barnier's team was formed in December 2016 (thus less than the 6 months you mention). You do realise that the EU couldn't set up a team (at least not officially) before the actual intention to withdrawal was announced and send to the EU?

Dreadnought wrote:
I can write a free trade agreement on one page. Neither side will apply tarriffs or quotas on goods/services originating in the other country. Any complex good (automobiles etc) with > 75% domestic components will be treated as 100% domestic. Any disputes will be resolved in the courts of the country where the invoice for the goods/services was issued.
There you go. A bit extreme, you could expand it to a full page or even 2 pages. Much more than that is just bureaucratic masturbation.


A governments is elected and has obligations towards its voters and lobby groups. Try to please enough people with that one pager....
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:15 am

Dreadnought wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
On the flip side, they will have 3 years of being a "vassal" state with little to no say on what the EU is doing, they might decide that its not so bad being ruled by the EU.
The EU of course will not have to cater to the English whims or running off the reservation, so a win win for all involved.


In other words, the UK incurs all the costs of Brexit while enjoying none of the benefits. How is that a win/win?


The UK Economy doesn´t get wrecked seems like a pretty big win to me...
Remember that the prospect of the full UK government assessment of the "no deal" effects becoming public was greeted with "If that goes public, we can forget Brexit".....

From what I am hearing from my British friends, what they voted for and what they want now is that as of November 1st of this year, no EU authority, law, regulation bureaucrat or whatever has jurisdiction over the UK. The UK must have the right to pass any laws, sign any treaties, basically do whatever it wants as of 2019-11-01. Theresa May's deal did not provide that. Boris' latest proposal of "May's deal minus the backstop" does not provide that. The only thing that does that at this point is no-deal.


so your British friends have no grasp on reality. The EU membership is one of over 100 treaties that the UK signed and ratified that all limit the UKs ability to do that or put it under the Jurisdiction of Non-UK courts and arbitration panels.

I believe that was Boris's intention to negotiate such a deal or something pretty close to it, which the EU would have reluctantly agreed to at the last minute (October 30th). But the chances of such a deal flew out the window when the remoaners pulled their stunts last week.


The deal that BoJo wants is legally impossible for both the EU and the UK. So that is just another unicorn farting rainbows.

Negotiating 101 for anything - whether for a treaty or buying a washing machine: The other side must know that you are willing to walk out if you don't get what you want.


Absolute hogwash. You can bluster all you want if your negotiating partner knows you can not get what you want from any other "supplier"..... you can not turn to someone else to get a trade deal with the EU.

Its like sitting with a customers purchaser after his company just spend 1+ years and a 7 digit amount of money to get a solution certified, and he tries to negotiate better prices with the usual "we talk to other suppliers as well" line..... if you don´t have a dual source strategy, and dual certification, from the start that ain´t happening, and even then you can only "threaten" with the relative volume share being lower if you don´t move on price, but even that only works to the point where we say "no" because the volume gets to small. ....

Telling your negotiating team in public that no-deal is not an option completely scuppers your chances at getting any sort of reasonable deal. Imagine taking your wife to the Porsche dealership, and she tells you in front of the salesman that she will divorce you if she doesn't get that shiny 911 Turbo on display. Somehow I don't think you'll get any discount.


.... because he can not go to another Porsche Dealership without her after? The sales guy will not just assume the threat is empty? He will not ask himself if she could possibly be such a good lay? That he may be happy to be rid of her? That making a really good offer may get him to make a snap decision on the spot?

Sure, No-deal will be disruptive and painful for many. But the pain will be short,


I applause your optimism..... you really think all those plans and investments drawn up in the time of uncertainty will be changed once certainty comes back? Nope. Whats gone is gone, and getting it back is about as fruitful as getting coal jobs back....

as all the uncertainties will be removed


the uncertainty is removed after all new trade deals are certified by the WTO..... 10 years is a good ballpark figure for that.

and the UK can go on from there with a solid legal base and not having to answer to anyone.


aside of course to everybody else they have international treaties with, and of course, just having added a gazillion of those with all those trade deals, and most, if not all, will contain some pretty specific rules about what the UK can´t and can do in the future. Non-tariff trade barriers are usually the much bigger issue in trade negotiations that quotas and tariffs. The US government is pretty much on record that the UK has to adjust lots of legislation to accommodate US goods for a trade deal. "Not answer to anyone" ... haha.
That there is no FTA between the US and the EU is in part due to the UK, and others, not wanting to mellow customer protections. Go figure.

BTW, I've always thought the best road forward would be a worldwide free trade bloc consisting of the UK, USA, Switzerland, Japan, Australia, Canada, South Korea and maybe one or two others. These countries would have to have relatively similar labor costs and standards of living - none of this crap of sucking in a couple of poor countries to use for cheap labor. And it should remain a free trade deal only - no common governing bodies. If Canada wants to sell to Switzerland, the goods must comply to Swiss standards, end of story.


There is no FTA without some sort of governing body and any FTA will remove just those "If Canada wants to sell to Switzerland, the goods must comply to Swiss standards" non-tariff barriers in the first step, because talking tariffs and quotas doesn´t make sense before that is solved. Consequently WTO rules don´t even allow that kind of FTA as it just a neat trick to get around most favored nation status.

GATT Art.XXIV, 8b wrote:
A free-trade area shall be understood to mean a group of two or more customs territories in which the duties and other restrictive regulations of commerce (except, where necessary, those permitted under Articles XI, XII, XIII, XIV, XV and XX) are eliminated on substantially all the trade between the constituent territories in products originating in such territories.




Any organization that takes 6-8 months just to assemble a team and then expects negotiations to last for years is bureaucracy out of control. I've been involved in multi-billion dollar mergers which are much more complex (you are dealing with actually merging operations, finances, employees, distribution and retail networks etc) which are generally negotiated from start to finish in a few months. These government negotiators are already planning on a long series of "negotiation sessions" in nice places, spending 95% of their time and (your) money on enjoying the local spa facilities with their wives/mistresses and 5% of their time working.


6-8 month preparation and only a few years to conclude an FTA are amazingly fast and only possible between places that are already closely aligned.

I can write a free trade agreement on one page. Neither side will apply tarriffs or quotas on goods/services originating in the other country. Any complex good (automobiles etc) with > 75% domestic components will be treated as 100% domestic. Any disputes will be resolved in the courts of the country where the invoice for the goods/services was issued.


And if you can find anyone to sign an FTA like that, you will also find that just about any WTO member would file concerns, and demand the same treatment, about as quick as you have ever seen diplomacy move.

best regards
Thomas
Last edited by tommy1808 on Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:18 am

Dreadnought wrote:
From what I am hearing from my British friends, what they voted for and what they want now is that as of November 1st of this year, no EU authority, law, regulation bureaucrat or whatever has jurisdiction over the UK. The UK must have the right to pass any laws, sign any treaties, basically do whatever it wants as of 2019-11-01. Theresa May's deal did not provide that. Boris' latest proposal of "May's deal minus the backstop" does not provide that. The only thing that does that at this point is no-deal.


This of course is the Brextremist's fantasy World where, at midnight on 31st of October, the UK is "free of the tyranny of Brussels" and "sovereign" and has "taken back control". Of course there's the tiny matter of the thousands of businesses (large and small) who do business with the EU on a daily basis, who will still have to follow EU rules and regulations. Oh.

Dreadnought wrote:
Sure, No-deal will be disruptive and painful for many. But the pain will be short, as all the uncertainties will be removed and the UK can go on from there with a solid legal base and not having to answer to anyone.


More Brextremist fantasy. Even arch hard Brexiteer Rees-Mogg said 50 years. :banghead:

Dreadnought wrote:
I can write a free trade agreement on one page. Neither side will apply tarriffs or quotas on goods/services originating in the other country. Any complex good (automobiles etc) with > 75% domestic components will be treated as 100% domestic. Any disputes will be resolved in the courts of the country where the invoice for the goods/services was issued.

There you go. A bit extreme, you could expand it to a full page or even 2 pages. Much more than that is just bureaucratic masturbation.


Wow, that easy? You should offer your services to Trump. :lol:
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:23 am

A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

A101 making stuff up again. You are aware that fact checking isn´t all that difficult these days, are you?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

Seems the result was within the error margins of polling and, unless you define a small lead as "landslide", no one predicted that either.

best regards
Thomas


:rotfl: :rotfl: maybe you should take your own advice, :rotfl: :rotfl:
You do realise i actually I go to Australia quite often and keep up with the local shenanigans friends and family tell what’s going in the heartland, and I was actully there when the election had taken place.


And that makes your assessment less wrong and made up how exactly?

Your claim wasn't that the outcome was a surprise, but that the polls where wrong. Which they obviously where not, and hence only people that still don't understand how polls work would come to your faulty conclusion.
If 90~95% of polls, depending on the confidence they claim, stay within their margin of error, they where all smack right, regardless of how you asses the ultimate outcome.

Best regards
Thomas
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A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:01 am

tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

A101 making stuff up again. You are aware that fact checking isn´t all that difficult these days, are you?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

Seems the result was within the error margins of polling and, unless you define a small lead as "landslide", no one predicted that either.

best regards
Thomas


:rotfl: :rotfl: maybe you should take your own advice, :rotfl: :rotfl:
You do realise i actually I go to Australia quite often and keep up with the local shenanigans friends and family tell what’s going in the heartland, and I was actully there when the election had taken place.


And that makes your assessment less wrong and made up how exactly?

Your claim wasn't that the outcome was a surprise, but that the polls where wrong. Which they obviously where not, and hence only people that still don't understand how polls work would come to your faulty conclusion.
If 90~95% of polls, depending on the confidence they claim, stay within their margin of error, they where all smack right, regardless of how you asses the ultimate outcome.

Best regards
Thomas




No if 90-95% of polls over a long period of time are allways within the margin of error of 1.5% you might think that, but unfortunately the margins of of error for the AU federal elections were consistently within a 0.05% of each other. That tells me either the sampling area was to small or the sample itself was too small each time which would lead to a bias polling result.

In other words the only true poll is the actual vote outcome as their are too many variables with polling to get an accurate picture
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:24 am

Dreadnought wrote:
Negotiating 101 for anything - whether for a treaty or buying a washing machine: The other side must know that you are willing to walk out if you don't get what you want. Telling your negotiating team in public that no-deal is not an option completely scuppers your chances at getting any sort of reasonable deal. Imagine taking your wife to the Porsche dealership, and she tells you in front of the salesman that she will divorce you if she doesn't get that shiny 911 Turbo on display. Somehow I don't think you'll get any discount.


This is a ridiculous statement, this isn't like buying a washing machine if you want to compare it with anything, it is like a divorce, sure you can leave without a deal, but you are left with nothing.

Dreadnought wrote:
BTW, I've always thought the best road forward would be a worldwide free trade bloc consisting of the UK, USA, Switzerland, Japan, Australia, Canada, South Korea and maybe one or two others. These countries would have to have relatively similar labor costs and standards of living - none of this crap of sucking in a couple of poor countries to use for cheap labor. And it should remain a free trade deal only - no common governing bodies. If Canada wants to sell to Switzerland, the goods must comply to Swiss standards, end of story.


Sure, because of what? Their close proximity? Free trade is fine, but again way to simplistic, or do you want all countries to get out of their current free trade blocks and deals?

Dreadnought wrote:
A good illustration of why any rational person would want to leave the EU. Any organization that takes 6-8 months just to assemble a team and then expects negotiations to last for years is bureaucracy out of control. I've been involved in multi-billion dollar mergers which are much more complex (you are dealing with actually merging operations, finances, employees, distribution and retail networks etc) which are generally negotiated from start to finish in a few months.


Given this statement, I don't think you were involved, or at least not one of the principles involved. Merging companies more complex than merging two economies in certain areas and taking into account the interests of all citizens, companies, NGO's etc. etc. etc. etc. at heart.

Dreadnought wrote:
I can write a free trade agreement on one page.


No, you can't and that's why nobody does it like that.

Dreadnought wrote:
Neither side will apply tarriffs or quotas on goods/services originating in the other country.


Uhmm, so total free with total disregard to domestic interests.

Dreadnought wrote:
Any complex good (automobiles etc) with > 75% domestic components will be treated as 100% domestic.


Being lawyery, without being a lawyer, so I am sure lawyers can bring up many more things.
> what is a complex good, how to define it.
> We have automobiles, but what is an automobile? A pick-up truck, an automobile or not? What should be the determining factor in that?
> 75%? measured in what? Monetary value? Weight? Actual components no matter the size?
> domestic? What is domestic? Does it include in Britains case crown colonies for instance or not?,
> components? Does a semi-finished product with 30% foreign components classify as a domestic product? Or does that classify as a 70% domestic component?

And each of those questions has follow up questions, so you see, it becomes quite complex quite fast. So you do not have a clue what you are talking about.

Dreadnought wrote:
Any disputes will be resolved in the courts of the country where the invoice for the goods/services was issued.


Really? Interesting, so each time you have a dispute with a foreign supplier, you have to go to the country of origin? So in your ideal scenario, a Swiss company, buying goods from South Korea, needs to file a lawsuit in South Korea if something occurs.

Dreadnought wrote:
There you go. A bit extreme, you could expand it to a full page or even 2 pages. Much more than that is just bureaucratic masturbation.


As demonstrated, no it isn't.

Dreadnought wrote:
Here's how you negotiate a deal. You select your team, the EU selects theirs. You put both teams on a plane to the Faroe Islands (where men are men and sheep are nervous). And you tell them that the plane only returns when they have hammered out a deal.


A deal, yes, a trade deal no, and an EU/UK trade deal certainly not. Not if you want to have democratic oversight.

Dreadnought, seriously, you make a fool of yourself with such a post about a very complex issue.
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:13 am

This has just broken from the Scottish courts regarding the prorogation of parliament...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-49661855

seahawk wrote:
Imho it is very likely that pro-Brexit parties would clear win an election in the UK. Not because the conservatives are so much ahead but because the Brexit party won´t run their own candidates if the conservative candidate is pro-leave. And combined they are something of 10-20% ahead of Labour.


Despite it being the single biggest issue of the day, there is one major fallacy of voting this way. When the election comes along, it effectively turns the election into a single issue debate at the risk of sidelining domestic and other foreign issues. It's one reason why I'm against an election at the moment. As far as I can see, the Brexit Party has no policies for anything else besides Brexit.

Weirdly, I'm in rare agreement with Tom Watson when he says that there's a risk another election without holding a referendum first risks failing to resolve the issue, as well as highlighting his preference that a second referendum should be prioritised over an election...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49657006
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:23 am

A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:

:rotfl: :rotfl: maybe you should take your own advice, :rotfl: :rotfl:
You do realise i actually I go to Australia quite often and keep up with the local shenanigans friends and family tell what’s going in the heartland, and I was actully there when the election had taken place.


And that makes your assessment less wrong and made up how exactly?

Your claim wasn't that the outcome was a surprise, but that the polls where wrong. Which they obviously where not, and hence only people that still don't understand how polls work would come to your faulty conclusion.
If 90~95% of polls, depending on the confidence they claim, stay within their margin of error, they where all smack right, regardless of how you asses the ultimate outcome.

Best regards
Thomas




No if 90-95% of polls over a long period of time are allways within the margin of error of 1.5% you might think that, but unfortunately the margins of of error for the AU federal elections were consistently within a 0.05% of each other.


You do realise that everyone can just look at the link I provided and see how the polls differed wildly, and are no where remotely near all being within 0.05%, right?

Best regards
Thomas
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:32 am

par13del wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Well, enough is enough I would say. The House is losing a good speaker, who really enjoyed the role.

Let's see how history judges him, as some would say, the systems and the institutions are more important than any one single individual and or goal.


He has defended parliament, which is his job.

Many Tories/government members have criticized him for allowing votes on things they didn't like, yet many of these votes ended up passing, proving Bercow was right to put them up for a vote.
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A101
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:34 am

tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

And that makes your assessment less wrong and made up how exactly?

Your claim wasn't that the outcome was a surprise, but that the polls where wrong. Which they obviously where not, and hence only people that still don't understand how polls work would come to your faulty conclusion.
If 90~95% of polls, depending on the confidence they claim, stay within their margin of error, they where all smack right, regardless of how you asses the ultimate outcome.

Best regards
Thomas




No if 90-95% of polls over a long period of time are allways within the margin of error of 1.5% you might think that, but unfortunately the margins of of error for the AU federal elections were consistently within a 0.05% of each other.


You do realise that everyone can just look at the link I provided and see how the polls differed wildly, and are no where remotely near all being within 0.05%, right?

Best regards
Thomas


Yep I can and you also can consistently see poll after poll for the TPP vote from when the election was called when averaged out is within 0.5% (the 0.05% is a typo) within each other, id be more inclined to believe it if it had a greater curve between pollsters you could see a pattern for margin of error, but the averages indicates the sampling is skewered towards a result or bias, and you can see from the actual vote the margin for error should have been in the vicinity of 3%
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:45 am

Aesma wrote:
He has defended parliament, which is his job.

Many Tories/government members have criticized him for allowing votes on things they didn't like, yet many of these votes ended up passing, proving Bercow was right to put them up for a vote.

Not sure I would use the passing of a bill bought to the floor in a controversial way to say he was right, he allowed the WA bill to be presented 3 times without change, I am not going to say he was wrong just because they failed to pass it three times, and I include all the indicative votes that he also allowed.
In my opinion, he will be judged based on Brexit and the last two years, whatever he did before however great will be judged by those who read history versus a current majority who are living through it and the consequences.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:48 am

A101 wrote:
the margin for error should have been in the vicinity of 3%


Which it was, as i stated before you embarked on the futile attempt of defending what you made up. I guess that means case closed.

best regards
Thomas
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:59 am

Dreadnought wrote:
From what I am hearing from my British friends,


Right there lies the problem.

The British don't seem to know what they want, or being able to make a realistic assessment of what's possible and the trade-offs needed for a, b and c.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:00 am

Dreadnought wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
On the flip side, they will have 3 years of being a "vassal" state with little to no say on what the EU is doing, they might decide that its not so bad being ruled by the EU.
The EU of course will not have to cater to the English whims or running off the reservation, so a win win for all involved.


In other words, the UK incurs all the costs of Brexit while enjoying none of the benefits. How is that a win/win?

For the record, I made the initial post on the vassal state not Sabenapilot.
My point is that since the UK initiated Article 50 two years ago they have been removed from all EU decision making, in essence they have been operating for the last 2 years in a new model, never used before which see's their power and influence being worse off than Norway. At present they are rule takers and budget contributors, full stop, who are flowing along every day based on whatever the EU has, negotiated or initiated, and for two years no one has blinked an eye.

Now if the parliament was not still angry that the people voted against their carefully crafted referendum question, the cabinet being at odds with itself and the public infatuated with each side trying to define what Yes and No meant and the red bus, they may actually have looked back at the two years and said hmmm... how bad can it get, but.....
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:04 am

tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:
the margin for error should have been in the vicinity of 3%


Which it was, as i stated before you embarked on the futile attempt of defending what you made up. I guess that means case closed.

best regards
Thomas


Do show where you said that
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:21 am

He said the vote was within the poll's margin of error. It was.
Your arbitrary assertions were proven to be incorrect, as is usual.
We all know your views (and your own personal bailout option), however your views do not and will not overturn facts, the legal process of our democracy or reality in general.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:33 am

A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:
the margin for error should have been in the vicinity of 3%


Which it was, as i stated before you embarked on the futile attempt of defending what you made up. I guess that means case closed.

best regards
Thomas


Do show where you said that


i am afraid i can´t help you if you fail to recall posts you read and replied to just a few hours ago. The pointer to where is in the very post you just now replied to too.

ChrisKen wrote:
He said the vote was within the poll's margin of error. It was.
Your arbitrary assertions were proven to be incorrect, as is usual.
We all know your views (and your own personal bailout option), however your views do not and will not overturn facts, the legal process of our democracy or reality in general.


:checkmark:
Those pesky facts seem to have a bias, at least facts seem to start seeping through to the UK Parliament since Boris plays being in Charge and apparently peoples Vote and May´s deal get some more realistic attention.

best regards
Thomas
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:33 am

par13del wrote:
Dreadnought wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
On the flip side, they will have 3 years of being a "vassal" state with little to no say on what the EU is doing, they might decide that its not so bad being ruled by the EU.
The EU of course will not have to cater to the English whims or running off the reservation, so a win win for all involved.


In other words, the UK incurs all the costs of Brexit while enjoying none of the benefits. How is that a win/win?

For the record, I made the initial post on the vassal state not Sabenapilot.
My point is that since the UK initiated Article 50 two years ago they have been removed from all EU decision making,


They have not. At the beginning they were just excluded in meetings related to Brexit and very long-term issues.

Last month it was the UK's decision to withdraw their representatives to make some point, not the other way around.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... sis-europe
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:05 pm

Ok, technically they have not been removed, but they have not been participating. I agreed with TM's option not to take up the post in principle (presidency I think), think we all did.
However, they have been in the model for the past two years as per the Article 50 agreement and whatever voluntary decision they made not to participate, my point was not about throwing any shade / blame at who was responsible but simply the fact that for the last two years, they have not been involved in any major decision making of the EU.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:17 pm

Part13del, your vassal state claims are hilarious, if we consider the UK is the worst offender with Scotland, NI and Wales :)
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:22 pm

Olddog wrote:
Part13del, your vassal state claims are hilarious, if we consider the UK is the worst offender with Scotland, NI and Wales :)


But that is different!





They didn´t join voluntary :mrgreen:

best regards
Thomas
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:20 pm

Olddog wrote:
Part13del, your vassal state claims are hilarious, if we consider the UK is the worst offender with Scotland, NI and Wales :)

Hey, if you don't get caught up in the rhetoric you will cry, don't forget Bermuda, Cayman and the Turks & Caicos, I could throw in the Commonwealth but... that would be attempting to reinstate the empire.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:46 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Olddog wrote:
Part13del, your vassal state claims are hilarious, if we consider the UK is the worst offender with Scotland, NI and Wales :)


But that is different!


Indeed. Scotland, NI, Wales all have elected representatives in Westminster.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:04 pm

tommy1808 wrote:

But that is different!

They didn´t join voluntary :mrgreen:

best regards
Thomas

Scotland most certainly did join voluntarily.
As did Ireland and subsquently Northern Ireland when they choose to remain following Irish Partition and the later Republic's independence from the UK.

Wales was technically annexed (by the Romans) but 'Wales' had never actually existed as a country. The 'act of union' created the Kingdom of Wales and gave it it's rights and representation as a country. Being in the UK actually fostered it's identity as a nation.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:23 pm

Dutchy wrote:


[quote="Dreadnought wrote:
I can write a free trade agreement on one page.


No, you can't and that's why nobody does it like that.

Dreadnought wrote:
Neither side will apply tarriffs or quotas on goods/services originating in the other country.


Uhmm, so total free with total disregard to domestic interests.

Dreadnought wrote:
Any complex good (automobiles etc) with > 75% domestic components will be treated as 100% domestic.


Being lawyery, without being a lawyer, so I am sure lawyers can bring up many more things.
> what is a complex good, how to define it.
> We have automobiles, but what is an automobile? A pick-up truck, an automobile or not? What should be the determining factor in that?
> 75%? measured in what? Monetary value? Weight? Actual components no matter the size?
> domestic? What is domestic? Does it include in Britains case crown colonies for instance or not?,
> components? Does a semi-finished product with 30% foreign components classify as a domestic product? Or does that classify as a 70% domestic component?

And each of those questions has follow up questions, so you see, it becomes quite complex quite fast. So you do not have a clue what you are talking about.

Dreadnought wrote:
Any disputes will be resolved in the courts of the country where the invoice for the goods/services was issued.


Really? Interesting, so each time you have a dispute with a foreign supplier, you have to go to the country of origin? So in your ideal scenario, a Swiss company, buying goods from South Korea, needs to file a lawsuit in South Korea if something occurs.

Dreadnought wrote:
There you go. A bit extreme, you could expand it to a full page or even 2 pages. Much more than that is just bureaucratic masturbation.


As demonstrated, no it isn't.


I feel that Dreadnought's statement is actually a fairly good example of brexit. Brexiteers being absolutely certain that they are the smartest guys in the room, that the other side is made up entirely of morons and then being totally clueless about very complex issues which they see as being black and white. It really is all hubris.
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:24 pm

par13del wrote:
For the record, I made the initial post on the vassal state not Sabenapilot.


I'm still waiting to hear whether or not Norway or Switzerland are "Vassel States".

Also still waiting to hear from one of our brexiteer friends as to why it's ok for BoJo, JRM and the other brexiteers to vote against TM's Brexit bill but it's apparently not ok for Sir Nicholas Soames to vote against Boris (and thus he gets kicked out of the party)?
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:26 pm

AeroVega wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Olddog wrote:
Part13del, your vassal state claims are hilarious, if we consider the UK is the worst offender with Scotland, NI and Wales :)


But that is different!


Indeed. Scotland, NI, Wales all have elected representatives in Westminster.


and if they chose not to, like the UK did with the EU, they suddenly become vessel states? Do you live in a dictatorship if you chose not to vote?

best regards
Thomas
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:39 pm

zkojq wrote:
par13del wrote:
For the record, I made the initial post on the vassal state not Sabenapilot.


I'm still waiting to hear whether or not Norway or Switzerland are "Vassel States".

In a very narrow, strict, technical definition of the words they are but as they have chosen to be part of the SM/CU and operate independently (as full EU member states do too) they most definitely are not.

The difference with NI, is whichever way you cut it up, you either make it a vassel state or break international/national binding agreements, acts of union or other treaties.

There's also the small matter that NI's national status cannot be changed unless it's approved by 3/4s of it's population. Boris simply can't chop N.I free unilaterally or even bilaterally without that requirement being filled.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:53 pm

Boris wanting to build a bridge between Scotland and NI:

https://www.channel4.com/news/exclusive ... rn-ireland


Government won't be releasing Yellowhammer documents as it'll 'concern people', says minister

A government minister has said that releasing documents that look at the repercussions of a no-deal Brexit would 'concern people' and therefore should not be released.

Explaining why the government will ignore a demand from MPs to release the Yellowhammer documents, Andrea Leadsom appeared on BBC Breakfast to claim they were not "a prediction of anything".

"I actually think it does not serve people well to see what is the worst thing that could happen. The worst thing that could happen to me is I could walk out of here and get run over. It's not a prediction, but it's something that could happen."

But the documents nowhere explicitly refer to a "worst-case scenario", and instead contain the most likely situation of a no-deal Brexit.

She continued: "Simply putting out there all of the possible permutations of what could happen actually just serves to concern people.


https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-st ... -1-6263474


Sounds to me like she is unsulting the resolve of the British people. Does she not believe in Britain? Does she not believe in the British people's abilities to make decisions? What happened to the bulldog spirit?
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:11 pm

zkojq wrote:
I feel that Dreadnought's statement is actually a fairly good example of brexit. Brexiteers being absolutely certain that they are the smartest guys in the room, that the other side is made up entirely of morons and then being totally clueless about very complex issues which they see as being black and white. It really is all hubris.


I saw that block of word-salad and thought "oh, here we go..."
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kaitak
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:50 pm

I get a sense, from this morning's papers, that there is room for a bit of optimism. There is talk of compromise in relation to NI, which had the DUP's Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds rushing to No10 and demanding a meeting (which they got). Whenever the DUP is worried, you know it's good news. When the govt said it's absolutely not going to consider a border down the Irish Sea, you know that's what they're looking at, so that's even better news.

The sad reality for the DUP is that with the govt having lost its majority anyway, they have now outlived their usefulness to the Tories and their two year drive to prevent a result favourable to the province they claim to serve is nearly at an end (you might even say it's all turned to ashes, but even I wouldn't be that mean.)

The Guardian has an interesting article on this:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -go-for-it

How far they will be able to go and what venom will spew from the DUP remains to be seen; they won't like it, BUT - and here's the crucial thing - the majority of NI voted to remain, the NI business community would absolutely favour an all-Ireland arrangements, which would see the island of Ireland remain within the EU customs union ... and if this plan fails, the DUP would be seen to have been instrumental in this - and the alternative would be a general election. Does the DUP really want to go to its electorate having torpedoed a plan that would help the NI economy massively and remove the threat of Brexit consequences that have hung over NI for the past three years? OK, maybe the DUP would, but a sane political party would step back and say, "whoa there, let's think about this. Despite the threat that this solution might be good for NI, we might be best advised to back it".

If the NI backstop is really the biggest obstacle and if that obstacle is removed, then would any MPs - including the most unionist minded Tories, object if the alternative were a no-deal Brexit and the disaster that would mean for millions for livelihoods?

In other news, incidentally, No10 has rejection any possibility of a pre-election deal with the Brexit party, which had - rather laughably - wanted a free run in 90 (yes, NINETY) constituencies! No. 10 said that neither Farage nor Banks were fit and proper persons, nor should be allowed anywhere near government. As the Americans would say: "burn".
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:12 pm

zkojq wrote:
par13del wrote:
For the record, I made the initial post on the vassal state not Sabenapilot.


I'm still waiting to hear whether or not Norway or Switzerland are "Vassel States".

Also still waiting to hear from one of our brexiteer friends as to why it's ok for BoJo, JRM and the other brexiteers to vote against TM's Brexit bill but it's apparently not ok for Sir Nicholas Soames to vote against Boris (and thus he gets kicked out of the party)?

Guess you are also waiting to find out why the Remain element in parliament has not changed their position and voted approval of any of the 3 WA votes and any the indicative votes.
In my opinion, trying to place blame on one side is futile, they are all guilty, but that is my opinion.

On the "Vassel States", you may not have been reading all the rhetoric going around, it may not have been as prominent as the red bus or JRM talk of 50 years.

Personally, I do not see the Norway or Swiss model, if I have to abide by the rules, trade by the rules, live by the rules, why would I not want to be a full member who will actually have some influence on the rules by which I have to live?
The Swiss and Norway seem fine with it, however, based on what has been taking place recently in their negotiations with the EU, I suspect the Norway model will not last much longer.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:25 pm

And you should know that if the swiss model is in conflict with the EU it is due to Swiss attempt to reduce freedom of movement.
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins

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