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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:02 pm

LJ wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Would Parliament accept such a deal?


Parliament should be acrefull not to accept as it would really bad if they would reject such a deal.


Sure, the stakes have gone up with the attitude of Orban, but still, wouldn't the MEP be more willing to except the WA instead of Northern Ireland leaving in EU regotory regime permanently. I mean, this was one of the outcomes preventing the back-stop, not the.
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Sep 14, 2019 4:55 pm

The Daily Rag is on about MP meeting through the night to review and approve any deal BJ brings back from the EU, at least meeting all day and night reviewing a potential deal is a distraction from all the No Deal shenanigans.
Only way this succeeds is if the border goes down the Irish Sea, the beginning of the unification of the island.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -days.html
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:36 pm

Dutchy wrote:
LJ wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Would Parliament accept such a deal?


Parliament should be acrefull not to accept as it would really bad if they would reject such a deal.


Sure, the stakes have gone up with the attitude of Orban, but still, wouldn't the MEP be more willing to except the WA instead of Northern Ireland leaving in EU regotory regime permanently. I mean, this was one of the outcomes preventing the back-stop, not the.


The stakes are maybe high, but the UK Parliament should take into account that its credibility will diminish a lot when it votes down the only viable option at present, which is by chance the option the EU initially created. Moreover as they voted daown May's plan with a backstop.
 
ChrisKen
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:52 pm

MPs won't be stupid enough to approve a deal with an Irish Sea border. It's a fundamental affront to what the UK is and brexit is supposedly all about. An Irish sea border also violates primary tenants of the various acts of union and the UK's constitution.

A deal pleases no one, and really does hand over the keys. Any deal trades our current better package for something worse by default.
No deal is clearly unworkable, undesirable and undelivering of the unicorns.

There's only one way Parliament will vote when the crunch comes. #RevokeA50 (and rightly so, it was the only sensible and practical option from the start).
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:30 pm

Personally, I've been a firm believer in revoking as soon as it became clear that was an option.

However, I'm not sure it's the best plan by the Lib Dems to now officially back that over another referendum - simply because if the UK revokes without an absolutely clear public desire to do so, the Brexiteers will literally never stop trying to overturn it again.

Ideally we need a second referendum and we need it to point clearly to remain.

On the other hand, if it comes to a crunch and the Lib Dems have a sizeable stake in a cooperative grouping trying to sort it out, then at least there's a clear argument that a good number of people do support revoking.

It's hard to know how much of this is posturing and how much the rebel alliance is actually discussing in the background...
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:02 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
MPs won't be stupid enough to approve a deal with an Irish Sea border. It's a fundamental affront to what the UK is and brexit is supposedly all about. An Irish sea border also violates primary tenants of the various acts of union and the UK's constitution.

A deal pleases no one, and really does hand over the keys. Any deal trades our current better package for something worse by default.
No deal is clearly unworkable, undesirable and undelivering of the unicorns.

There's only one way Parliament will vote when the crunch comes. #RevokeA50 (and rightly so, it was the only sensible and practical option from the start).


Clearly #RevokeA50 won't work either, hence the deadlock. Whatever you chose you will alienate about 50% of British citizens. That's why it is very difficult to get a clear path, as we all know. Given that Parliament is going to alienate about 50% of the population whatever it chooses, it can actually chose anything it desires as long as the EU agrees with it, except for a hard Brexit and revoke article 50, they can do that without the EU agreeing to that. So House of Commons decide the ball is with you, nobody else.

A good youtube clip about the differences between EU and British politics, day-to-day stuff, not regarded to Brexit.
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:34 am

ChrisKen wrote:
MPs won't be stupid enough to approve a deal with an Irish Sea border. It's a fundamental affront to what the UK is and brexit is supposedly all about. An Irish sea border also violates primary tenants of the various acts of union and the UK's constitution.

A deal pleases no one, and really does hand over the keys. Any deal trades our current better package for something worse by default.
No deal is clearly unworkable, undesirable and undelivering of the unicorns.

There's only one way Parliament will vote when the crunch comes. #RevokeA50 (and rightly so, it was the only sensible and practical option from the start).

If revoke is the only option, what keys are you talking about handing over if the border is in the Irish sea?
You also believe that if the UK revokes Article 50 everything goes back to how it was?
Personally, I don't think so, if the revoke is allowed I expect in short order something else will come up and a new ruling will state that even though revocation is by the initiator, the EU does have leave to *********.
Its a EU court making rulings on something that has never been done before and like the referendum, no one expected to every be used.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:28 am

ChrisKen wrote:
There's only one way Parliament will vote when the crunch comes. #RevokeA50 (and rightly so, it was the only sensible and practical option from the start).


To be honest, I don't think revocation is a viable option. Should article 50 be revoked, one can bet there will be an election coming soon thereafter. This election will be for the Brexit Party and I've no doubt we'll be in the same mess pretty soon afterwards. The best option would be between the current WA and a Norway style Brexit, as it at least means not being in the EU anymore. This option is probably acceptable for enough voters to ensure that the Brexit Party and hard line Brexiteers don't get enough power to control the Parliament.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:10 am

If Parliament vote to revoke a50 then Parliament have made the decision in accordance with our democractic proccess. That's all that is required.
Come crunch time, when it's a stark choice of the chaos of crashing out with no deal or remaining with all our current rights, it'll be a no brianer.

GE or not, Parliament would have to agree to starting the process again. Attempts to silenece brexiteers with a 2nd referendum wouldn't work either. It could be a unanimous landslide to remain but your brexiteering eurosceptics will still keep yammering on regardless (as they have done for 40 years). They've been listened to, the option has been examined and they've been found to be talking bollocks.

Anyone beleiving the Brexit Party could command a majority to trigger another a50 notification themselves is delusional. Remember UKIP's huge presence in the house? Neither do I.

@par13del - Any deal in which we withdraw our redlines os by its nature a defacto membership without representation. That is handing the keys over.


As for the Irish Sea border .The UK shouldn't and won't sell out the UK to acheive it either. The Irish sea border is a non starter as it contravenes the UK's own constitution, never mind all the other agreements and treaties relating to NI. Boris may try but it'll be blocked, if not by Parliament, the legal process certainly will.


Just for clarity IMHO
Leaving with a deal in which any of TM's redlines are sacrified makes the point of leaving moot. To get any of the fantastic deals promised, those redlines must be withdrawn. Thus a deal is not a viable option.

No deal - Utterly pointless, campaigned for on the premise of lies. The promised unicorns are clearly unachievable and thus a bunch of lies. Everything claimed as something that'll being returned to us, is something we already possess, so more lies. Not to mention, being outside the EU renders useless a large chunk of our bargaining power on the global trade stage. We become a minnow in a global ocean.

Remain - The only sensible and viable choice, as was obvious from before the start.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:20 am

So all of what has taken place in parliament was all done openly to defy the results of the 2016 vote?
The parliament created the question, and the parliament voted 400+ to give the question to the people, lies told by either side have been used to justify the actions taken after the vote, however, none of that invalidates the vote in the democratic process. The only way to invalidate or justify the vote is to have another one and it is telling that the majority of the parliament do not want one because they now fear the result.
As one poster above says, the result of the vote must be remain.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:34 am

LJ wrote:
The best option would be between the current WA and a Norway style Brexit, as it at least means not being in the EU anymore. This option is probably acceptable for enough voters to ensure that the Brexit Party and hard line Brexiteers don't get enough power to control the Parliament.

Hopefully, there are very few like me who believe that Norway is in the EU, if one has to follow and live by the rules you may as well contribute to making them.

What I do not understand is why folks believe that the UK cannot re-enter the EU? To me after stagnation became the defacto position, the simple solution would have been to leave in which ever fashion and let the people compare being out versus in, they know in, they know out from nostalgia by reading history and talking to old folks, is there a fear that being out will be so good or chaotic that they will want to remain out?
How long would it take a non-member who was a former member for 40 years to complete or meet the requirements to enter the EU? So you loose the pound, Thatcher breaks - no idea why they are still important since the UK has been giving them up not the EU taking them - and have to join Schengen, what else is there to loose that affects the everyday man in the street?
At least this way the people would be making the decision versus the politicians, what could go wrong?
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:40 am

par13del wrote:
LJ wrote:
The best option would be between the current WA and a Norway style Brexit, as it at least means not being in the EU anymore. This option is probably acceptable for enough voters to ensure that the Brexit Party and hard line Brexiteers don't get enough power to control the Parliament.

Hopefully, there are very few like me who believe that Norway is in the EU, if one has to follow and live by the rules you may as well contribute to making them.

What I do not understand is why folks believe that the UK cannot re-enter the EU? To me after stagnation became the defacto position, the simple solution would have been to leave in which ever fashion and let the people compare being out versus in, they know in, they know out from nostalgia by reading history and talking to old folks, is there a fear that being out will be so good or chaotic that they will want to remain out?
How long would it take a non-member who was a former member for 40 years to complete or meet the requirements to enter the EU? So you loose the pound, Thatcher breaks - no idea why they are still important since the UK has been giving them up not the EU taking them - and have to join Schengen, what else is there to loose that affects the everyday man in the street?
At least this way the people would be making the decision versus the politicians, what could go wrong?


Sure the UK could re-enter the EU, but it will not happen overnight. It takes 5 years or so and indeed many of the perks the UK currently enjoys, needs to go. That said, there are still tons of issue's to go over which needs to be negotiated.

I there is a hard Brexit, I don't see the UK re-entering for at least ten years, the British politics and citizens won't be ready and given what has happened, the EU might not be satisfied with a simple majority. It has cost the EU alot, so the will to re-enter needs to be there and substantial.
Last edited by Dutchy on Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:42 am

ChrisKen wrote:
Not to mention, being outside the EU renders useless a large chunk of our bargaining power on the global trade stage. We become a minnow in a global ocean.

A large chunk of that went out the door with the closer integration that became the EU, the Commonwealth was "sidelined" even if not done officially.
As for the rest, the UK influence on the global stage is either by yourself or with the USA, it has certainly not been with the backing of the EU, at least in my read of the world events. One reality is that the UK has been seen as a maverick within the EU and has really not gotten their own way, the Obama thought of the USA loosing influence in the EU if the UK left was PR and fluff more than reality.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:47 am

Dutchy wrote:
Sure the UK could re-enter the EU, but it will not happen overnight. It takes 5 years or so and indeed many of the perks the UK currently enjoys, needs to go. That said, there are still tons of issue's to go over which needs to be negotiated.

Which they would have been working on or thinking about now versus the absolute shambles that is presently taking place, the politicians are not endearing themselves to the public in this entire debacle. One long term hit that is probably being ignored is irrelevance of the local politicians to the public which could be and end game in itself, where if they remain, more people will pay attention to EU politics and ignore the locals, GE's would see lower and lower voter turnouts as folks just give up on them.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:54 am

Dutchy wrote:
I there is a hard Brexit, I don't see the UK re-entering for at least ten years, the British politics and citizens won't be ready and given what has happened, the EU might not be satisfied with a simple majority. It has cost the EU alot, so the will to re-enter needs to be there and substantial.

That would be a new EU position, after the last few public votes, there was talk of ensuring that future votes would be by parliament, the last Irish vote bought that back into focus. A win was a win, the percentage did not matter, ignore the rhetoric from the UK, if remain won by 1 vote the parliament would accept that.
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/irel ... -1.3593859
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:14 pm

What will have changed is that by law, french at least must vote to allow England to comme back. That law was mainly voted against Turkey but works for all new country.
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:19 pm

Anyway now that UK has Hulk on its side, it should obviously win :)
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:45 pm

Olddog wrote:
What will have changed is that by law, french at least must vote to allow England to comme back. That law was mainly voted against Turkey but works for all new country.

Sure, but the French will have the option of putting special measures in place for a UK membership application, and we know it will not contain exemptions but probably additional expectations to have the English swallow their pride, a win for France.

Bottom line is that all of that would be simple compared to the current situation, Leave then Return, Leave then Return, much better than Hold until Relieved from the Longest Day movie which seems to be taking place.
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:55 pm

I know but there is no coming back for EMA, EBA etc and the ton of money and influence that came with them directly or indirectly.
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:08 pm

Olddog wrote:
I know but there is no coming back for EMA, EBA etc and the ton of money and influence that came with them directly or indirectly.



there has been some damage already, especially the way the world looks at Britain and that is important for investors. Investors don't like uncertainnly and that's exactly what Britain has to offer.
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:11 pm

Which the EU is probably fine with, we must not forget that when DC was running around looking for additional carve outs for the UK prior to the 2016 referendum he was doing that with the full backing / pushing of the existing UK parliament, the majority of them who ultimately forced then approved the referendum are still in the house, so they are also knee deep in this fiasco, it is not just DC and the Tory party.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:14 pm

Even if somehow the UK remains, the UK as the financial capital of the EU is basically done, even if it takes the EU the next 10 years, one can rest assured that financial influence over the EU will be diminished as more and more functions etc are moved to the continent.
UK influence is probably going the way of a thousand cuts....or the frog in the cold pot of water....
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:18 pm

par13del wrote:
That would be a new EU position, after the last few public votes, there was talk of ensuring that future votes would be by parliament, the last Irish vote bought that back into focus. A win was a win, the percentage did not matter, ignore the rhetoric from the UK, if remain won by 1 vote the parliament would accept that.


that might well be the case, but as Farage has claimed beforehand, they wanted another referendum if it was close. So it would not have been over if remain had won.
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:40 pm

Farage was not in government nor a sitting member of the house...so no influence on the house accepting a 1 vote win. Even now his influence due to the results of the EU win is marginalized by main stream politicians in the UK...one would think that Bojo would be his biggest fan but.....you have seen the rhetoric on a working partnership...go figure....
If we give Farage no credit for anything he said let's not hold up his revote rhetoric as gospel..the remain house would never allow a revote
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:02 pm

Ask the people of North Ireland what they want. We know they want to stay in the EU and many want to stay in the UK. NI remaining in the UK except for trade goods gives all of them very much of what a majority want. Call it a UK free port. It might even be a useful manufacturing site for UK companies wanting an easy trade route with the rest of the EU.
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:25 pm

Yes but the DUP is not really in position to get a veto right from the EU as it seems they wish
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:39 pm

The demographics in NI is already changing to mostly Catholic, so long term, the end result is reunification, I don't think we will see further human investment in NI, so if the politicians do not intervene....
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:23 pm

par13del wrote:
Sure, but the French will have the option of putting special measures in place for a UK membership application, and we know it will not contain exemptions but probably additional expectations to have the English swallow their pride, a win for France.

That weirdly distorted tabloid view of Europe has almost nothing to do with reality.

And in reality every single member country has a veto on new applications, not just France!
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:25 pm

par13del wrote:
Even if somehow the UK remains, the UK as the financial capital of the EU is basically done, even if it takes the EU the next 10 years, one can rest assured that financial influence over the EU will be diminished as more and more functions etc are moved to the continent.
UK influence is probably going the way of a thousand cuts....or the frog in the cold pot of water....


I sincerly doubt that London will loose its status as the financial gateway to Europe. Its influence will diminish considerably, but there won't be any other place in Europe which will be able to match the status London has in the entire finance industry (especially given its laws). What you'll see (an what we're already seeing) is that the trade flows for EUR will bypass London. This may be augmented by trade flows in other currencies. However, that's not the most value added business in Finance. London will remain a meeting point for those in Finance. No way this role will be taken over by Paris or Frankfurt. Expecially given the tax laws in those countries.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:28 pm

par13del wrote:
Hopefully, there are very few like me who believe that Norway is in the EU, if one has to follow and live by the rules you may as well contribute to making them.

Norway decided to stay out of the EU so they could get away with reduced contributions to the budget, among other things, so they could keep their oil wealth to themselves.

When oil revenue declines that may change.

At least this way the people would be making the decision versus the politicians, what could go wrong?

Looking at the chaos so far: Yeah, what indeed...? :rotfl:
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:40 pm

Klaus wrote:
par13del wrote:
Sure, but the French will have the option of putting special measures in place for a UK membership application, and we know it will not contain exemptions but probably additional expectations to have the English swallow their pride, a win for France.

That weirdly distorted tabloid view of Europe has almost nothing to do with reality.

And in reality every single member country has a veto on new applications, not just France!

Agree..but the poster and I were talking about France.....we all know that the reason why things take so long in the EU is due to the fact all members have to agree....funny thing...that's what's going on in the UK right now....they can't get a majority...imagine if all had to agree....
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:34 pm

LJ wrote:
I sincerly doubt that London will loose its status as the financial gateway to Europe. Its influence will diminish considerably, but there won't be any other place in Europe which will be able to match the status London has in the entire finance industry (especially given its laws). What you'll see (an what we're already seeing) is that the trade flows for EUR will bypass London. This may be augmented by trade flows in other currencies. However, that's not the most value added business in Finance. London will remain a meeting point for those in Finance. No way this role will be taken over by Paris or Frankfurt. Expecially given the tax laws in those countries.

The financial landscape is changing with or without Brexit, the relocation of money laundering centers and tax havens, it is easier for the EU to get the rest of the world to toe the line versus internally due to all member agreements. However, once the rest of the world is bought in line, it will become more difficult to allow exceptions within the bloc.
London is on the way to loosing its gateway to the EU, with closer integration within the bloc on the way, the amount of business allowed outside the bloc (within Europe) will get smaller and smaller, it has to to preserve the integrity.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:18 pm

There has been discussions of the possible affects of Brexit in the UK and Republic of Ireland, but what are the possible affects, bad and good, from UK's Brexit, especially a 'no-deal' one ?
For sure other major EU countries have gained parts of the banking, financial services and insurance industries, but what about other services, food, manufactured goods to/from the UK ? For sure the new border requirements for entry into the UK (and indirectly Rep. of Ireland) of goods will mean a huge backup, but what about from the UK and EU ? The EU will lose funding from the UK transferred to the southern and poor EU country members. Fear of violence and instability in the UK from a 'hard' Brexit especially will drive down tourism to the UK. Some places, like Spain could see 1000's of UK expats have to move back home affecting local economies. There are many questions and answers have yet to develop.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:54 pm

As BoJo tries to return to the original backstop offer in a last minute effort to secure a deal before another humiliating delay has to be asked by him, it has emerged the UK would also seek to extend the transition period currently foreseen in the WA from the end of 2020 till 'beyond 2022'!
While the reasoning behind it may be obvious (lots of time has been lost, so the transition phase has now become too short), the EU has explaned the implications are huge: it would mean the UK would have to participate to the EU's next MFF (aka EU budget) at the level of full membership, this time WITHOUT any rebate.
This would mean that the UK's net contributions to the EU could very well go up after 2020 even!
Oh, the irony.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:17 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
As BoJo tries to return to the original backstop offer in a last minute effort to secure a deal before another humiliating delay has to be asked by him, it has emerged the UK would also seek to extend the transition period currently foreseen in the WA from the end of 2020 till 'beyond 2022'!
While the reasoning behind it may be obvious (lots of time has been lost, so the transition phase has now become too short), the EU has explaned the implications are huge: it would mean the UK would have to participate to the EU's next MFF (aka EU budget) at the level of full membership, this time WITHOUT any rebate.
This would mean that the UK's net contributions to the EU could very well go up after 2020 even!
Oh, the irony.


So he might be right afterall:

Image
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:19 pm

This might seem like a stupid question (from me? Surely not ;-) ) ... if a deal is done by the 31st Oct (or even if it isn't), is that "it", i.e. if there is an election in November/December and the incoming govt (assuming it's not Tory/Brexit), can the new govt say to Europe, "ah look, lads, they didn't have a majority, they closed down parliament, so whatever they have agreed or done is no longer valid and we're still in Europe and we're going to have a new referendum" ...

What would Europe's response be? Could they just ignore the 31st October? Or would any new govt then have to start at Square 1.

I'm guessing Brexiteers would probably have a fit and there might be a less than positive reaction in certain strongly pro-Brexit parts of the country? Cue legal cases, possibly violence?
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 7:58 pm

Well the EU is the one waving a document that they had with TM not the parliament as the Deal, so if we follow that precedent, whatever they sign with the Bojo government.....
Of course some things are always open to change based on the circumstances...
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:15 pm

Dutchy wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
As BoJo tries to return to the original backstop offer in a last minute effort to secure a deal before another humiliating delay has to be asked by him, it has emerged the UK would also seek to extend the transition period currently foreseen in the WA from the end of 2020 till 'beyond 2022'!
While the reasoning behind it may be obvious (lots of time has been lost, so the transition phase has now become too short), the EU has explaned the implications are huge: it would mean the UK would have to participate to the EU's next MFF (aka EU budget) at the level of full membership, this time WITHOUT any rebate.
This would mean that the UK's net contributions to the EU could very well go up after 2020 even!
Oh, the irony.


So he might be right afterall:

Image


:thumbsup: He he, good one
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:51 pm

Klaus wrote:
par13del wrote:
Sure, but the French will have the option of putting special measures in place for a UK membership application, and we know it will not contain exemptions but probably additional expectations to have the English swallow their pride, a win for France.

That weirdly distorted tabloid view of Europe has almost nothing to do with reality.

And in reality every single member country has a veto on new applications, not just France!


What he meant is that in France there must be a referendum, and that has been put into our constitution.
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:21 pm

About Orban, I can see it going both ways. Yes he and Hungary are on frigid terms inside the EU. What does he gain by going against the other leaders ? He will only embolden those who want Hungary sanctioned, barred from getting EU funds, things like that.

Olddog wrote:
The fun part is the future lunch with Junker, like of the UK could get a deal that way.

After almost 50 years in the EU it is stunning that brits do not understand how deals are made, first between civil servants, and only the very last dot on the line by the politicians.

It is also why we all knox when a deal is made way before the actual ratifying.


Don't give any ideas to Brexiteers ! Yes deals are negotiated between civil servants, but these have a mandate given by politicians, they don't decide as "unelected bureaucrats".

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Personally, I've been a firm believer in revoking as soon as it became clear that was an option.

However, I'm not sure it's the best plan by the Lib Dems to now officially back that over another referendum - simply because if the UK revokes without an absolutely clear public desire to do so, the Brexiteers will literally never stop trying to overturn it again.


The libdems have a position fit for a minority party. Give us a majority (3XX MPs) and we'll revoke ! Knowing full well that isn't in the cards, and if somehow it happened, then that would prove there is probably a majority for that position.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:51 pm

par13del wrote:
Well the EU is the one waving a document that they had with TM not the parliament as the Deal, so if we follow that precedent, whatever they sign with the Bojo government.....

No, there is no doubt about the Commons needing to ratify the deal, regardless of the EU27's preferences.

On the other hand, if the deadline has been crossed and Boris will have managed to prevent revocation or a deal, nominally a succeeding government won't have any direct legal leeway to jump back into negotiations – and once the UK has actually, legally left the EU27 governments actually lose their capability to just further extend the negotiations retroactively.

Boris will surely be betting on something like that if he can manage to crash the UK out before Parliament can stop him...

Of course some things are always open to change based on the circumstances...

Not all things, though!
 
Bostrom
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:52 pm

kaitak wrote:
This might seem like a stupid question (from me? Surely not ;-) ) ... if a deal is done by the 31st Oct (or even if it isn't), is that "it", i.e. if there is an election in November/December and the incoming govt (assuming it's not Tory/Brexit), can the new govt say to Europe, "ah look, lads, they didn't have a majority, they closed down parliament, so whatever they have agreed or done is no longer valid and we're still in Europe and we're going to have a new referendum" ...

What would Europe's response be? Could they just ignore the 31st October? Or would any new govt then have to start at Square 1.


If the house of commons approves the deal and the UK leaves on 31/10, they have left the EU. If a new government has other opinions about it they will have to reapply for membership.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:57 pm

Aesma wrote:
The libdems have a position fit for a minority party. Give us a majority (3XX MPs) and we'll revoke ! Knowing full well that isn't in the cards, and if somehow it happened, then that would prove there is probably a majority for that position.

Well be careful with that thought process, a majority in a certain parliament put a binary question to the public which they were sure of the answer, when it went against they were in shock and have not recovered, their main point is that what the people voted for is not what they meant...
Just saying, folks are so fed up with Labour and Tory, if they have a full slate of viable candidates....lightning might strike in the same place twice.
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:02 am

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Personally, I've been a firm believer in revoking as soon as it became clear that was an option.

However, I'm not sure it's the best plan by the Lib Dems to now officially back that over another referendum - simply because if the UK revokes without an absolutely clear public desire to do so, the Brexiteers will literally never stop trying to overturn it again.

Ideally we need a second referendum and we need it to point clearly to remain.

On the other hand, if it comes to a crunch and the Lib Dems have a sizeable stake in a cooperative grouping trying to sort it out, then at least there's a clear argument that a good number of people do support revoking.

It's hard to know how much of this is posturing and how much the rebel alliance is actually discussing in the background...


The Lib Dems have been unashamedly pro-European for a long time now. Given that the Tories are committed to Brexit one way or another and Labour being all over the place on the issue, I'd say it's a good opportunity for them to formally nail their colours to the mast so people know where they stand on the issue, particularly as an election is pretty much inevitable.

I get where you're coming from by casting doubt over the sensibility of the idea, but I go back to a point I've banged on in this thread multiple times about MP's needing to remember their first duty is to put country before anything else, so if they believe the revoking and remaining is in the country's best interests (the fact I agree with that is irrelevant) then fair play to them.

My take of the rebel alliance is that its remit is to simply stop a no deal Brexit on 31st October 2019. What course they take next is a different matter and it's clear everyone has different ideas on what to do next.

Dutchy wrote:
I there is a hard Brexit, I don't see the UK re-entering for at least ten years, the British politics and citizens won't be ready and given what has happened, the EU might not be satisfied with a simple majority. It has cost the EU alot, so the will to re-enter needs to be there and substantial.


I suggest it will take a generation or two. However, that will be dependent on which direction the EU goes next and whether that's palatable/sell-able to the British public.

If it did happen and Schengen is mandatory, that will no doubt mean Ireland having to do the same to both keep an open border with Northern Ireland and to preserve the Common Travel Area, so it's not a straightforward thing to implement.

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Ask the people of North Ireland what they want. We know they want to stay in the EU and many want to stay in the UK. NI remaining in the UK except for trade goods gives all of them very much of what a majority want. Call it a UK free port. It might even be a useful manufacturing site for UK companies wanting an easy trade route with the rest of the EU.


I'm not from Northern Ireland so can't speak for them. However, I suspect they just want to see things stay as they are at the moment without returning to borders, violence and maintaining peace.

I suspect seeing Stormont up and running again is another thing they want, but I suspect that will require the electorate to vote in parties who are serious about getting it up and running. Regardless of who's to blame, the DUP and Sinn Fein aren't doing themselves or NI any favours the longer Stormont remains suspended without one or both sides compromising.

par13del wrote:
The demographics in NI is already changing to mostly Catholic, so long term, the end result is reunification, I don't think we will see further human investment in NI, so if the politicians do not intervene....


That's assuming religion continues to maintain importance and remains part of the identity between unionists and republicans. The influence of the Catholic Church south of the border appears to be waning given how relaxing abortion laws and same-sex marriage have been legalised via referendums in recent years. I suspect in time religion won't determine where people stand on the issue of identity.

What you also need to remember is that if there is a change in the status of Northern Ireland in the future, you would need to ensure you're taking everyone on the journey and not just those who really want it, something that Varadkar is fully aware of even before he became Irish PM and stated recently it's not an immediate priority...

https://www.thejournal.ie/leo-varadkar- ... 2-Aug2016/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-49247754

I also think that if there is a poll anytime soon and it is found in favour of NI remaining part of the UK, that will be the end of the subject for a generation in much the same way the Scottish independence referendum 5 years ago was (or at least meant to be).

Aesma wrote:
The libdems have a position fit for a minority party. Give us a majority (3XX MPs) and we'll revoke ! Knowing full well that isn't in the cards, and if somehow it happened, then that would prove there is probably a majority for that position.


Some may call it "fit for a minority party", others might see it as them putting country first. As much as it shouldn't be that way, I can see the next election being a single-issue matter.

Either way, I can see at least a referendum on the subject being the price of Lib Dem support in the event of a hung parliament.

par13del wrote:
Just saying, folks are so fed up with Labour and Tory, if they have a full slate of viable candidates....lightning might strike in the same place twice.


Time will tell if some people are prepared to ditch tribal loyalties. There are millions of people who have always voted Labour or Tory come what may and a good number of those will continue to do so. Some people flirt with other parties and vote different ways in European elections, but when it comes to general elections a lot of them tend to revert to their traditional leanings. There's also the risk of those who will only vote one way or the other choosing not to vote instead if they simply can't bring themselves to vote for somebody else.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:23 am

Boeing74741R wrote:
If it did happen and Schengen is mandatory, that will no doubt mean Ireland having to do the same to both keep an open border with Northern Ireland and to preserve the Common Travel Area, so it's not a straightforward thing to implement.


It's my understanding (IMU - copyright WIederling... ;) ) that the Republic of Ireland would be more than happy to join Schengen and it was only the UK and the CTA (and thus the GFA) preventing them from doing so.
Last edited by SomebodyInTLS on Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:27 am

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
Boeing74741R wrote:
If it did happen and Schengen is mandatory, that will no doubt mean Ireland having to do the same to both keep an open border with Northern Ireland and to preserve the Common Travel Area, so it's not a straightforward thing to implement.


It's my understanding (IMU - copyright WIederling... ;) ) that the Republic of Ireland would be more than happy to join Schengen and it was only the UK and the CTA preventing them from doing so.


That was my feeling as well. Ireland is much more pro-EU than the UK ever was. So with the UK leaving they will actually become more "free" to follow their own policies.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:42 am

The process to rejoin the EU is spelled on the Article 49 of the TFEU, and I bet the negotiations will take years with no opt-out.
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:48 am

Olddog wrote:
The process to rejoin the EU is spelled on the Article 49 of the TFEU, and I bet the negotiations will take years with no opt-out.

I would think by now all the grandfathering has just about run out and carve outs that were given to members to get them on-board are not available to new members. Only fly in the ointment may be any new regs that are being proposed to either limit Turkey or keep them out, are they the last large country to attempt to join the EU?
 
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 16, 2019 3:01 pm

Mr. Johnson went to Luxembourgh and he got lunch.

The first meeting between Boris Johnson and Jean-Claude Juncker has not produced anything worthwhile. The British Prime Minister did not come up with a solution for the biggest bottleneck for Brexit: the solution for the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Brexit minister Stephen Barclay and brexit negotiator Michel Barnier were also present.

The meeting in a restaurant in the inner city of Luxembourg lasted about two hours.

In 47 days it will be 31 October, the day the United Kingdom leaves the EU.


link

Still no solution from number ten. What does mr. Johnson think, just go to the motion and hope of great "fake" headlines back home?

Anyhow, 47 days till B-day.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit part 7: The Frog who Aspired to Become as Big as the Ox

Mon Sep 16, 2019 3:03 pm

par13del wrote:
Olddog wrote:
The process to rejoin the EU is spelled on the Article 49 of the TFEU, and I bet the negotiations will take years with no opt-out.

I would think by now all the grandfathering has just about run out and carve outs that were given to members to get them on-board are not available to new members. Only fly in the ointment may be any new regs that are being proposed to either limit Turkey or keep them out, are they the last large country to attempt to join the EU?


Turkey is indeed the largest country who attempts to join (although that has been the status quo for the last, what, 35years or so). Ukraine is said to wanne join, but that has been explicitly ruled out for the near and mid-term.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!

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