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Aaron747
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Oil Fields Attack

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:05 am

Oh boy, what’s going on here...

Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the strikes had reduced crude oil production by 5.7m barrels a day - about half the kingdom's output.

A Yemeni Houthi rebel spokesman said it had deployed 10 drones in the attacks.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed the attacks on Iran saying there was no evidence they came from Yemen.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-mi ... t-49703143

Looking at multiple sources, accusations are flying. Analysts believe crude prices could jump up to $10, others believe export sanction must be relaxed on Iran, Iran denies involvement and says Yemeni rebels have no choice but to strike back after relentless Saudi airstrikes in Yemen, and some observers claim KSA did this to themselves for sympathy and price adjustment. Others in the US who don’t trust neocons say the timing is suspect so near the departure of Bolton.

Many countries (like the PRC) don’t trust the US take on this situation but need KSA oil - is it time for an independent coalition without UN security council members involved?
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SanDiegoLover
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:38 am

The Saudis brought this on themselves with their barbaric war in Yemen.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:16 am

Seems to me that Yemen could not do this without Iran, but it would seem that Iran would be Stupid to do this now that Bolton has stepped down. Saudi Arabia stands to benefit from any actions against Iran. There is going to be a lot of finger-pointing on this one. Hopefully there are some satellite shots of the attack.
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tu204
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:59 am

Saudis should place an order for Pantsirs.

After numerous drone attacks on Khmeimim and numerous software updates that system has become extremely effective against small and slow flying targets.
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zkojq
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:13 am

Coming only days after Trump suggested going back to the negotiating table with Iran? I'm not buying it - this is probably Saudi trying to stop the normalisation of Iranian relations.

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1431161
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SanDiegoLover
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:31 am

casinterest wrote:
Seems to me that Yemen could not do this without Iran, but it would seem that Iran would be Stupid to do this now that Bolton has stepped down. Saudi Arabia stands to benefit from any actions against Iran. There is going to be a lot of finger-pointing on this one. Hopefully there are some satellite shots of the attack.


Of course Yemen would need Iran. This entire war in Yemen is a proxy war between the Saudis and Iranians. This is no different than the proxy wars the US fought battling Russia in various other countries. That said, would you believe ANYTHING the Trump administration says? I don’t /won’t. Unless something is verified by a 3rd party with credibility, you’d be a fool to believe anything a Trumptard says on behalf of this administration.
 
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Sun Sep 15, 2019 11:10 am

So this is how it starts, the war Trump needs to keep him in the White House, nothing better than a war to rally the population around a failing President.
 
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:39 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
So this is how it starts, the war Trump needs to keep him in the White House, nothing better than a war to rally the population around a failing President.

Exactly! That's why he canned Bolton. Oh, wait!
 
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Sun Sep 15, 2019 1:43 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
So this is how it starts, the war Trump needs to keep him in the White House, nothing better than a war to rally the population around a failing President.


I disagree. I think even Trump knows that a war looks bad for his fragile ego, and it’s going to cost human lives. Again, if it’s something that may make him look bad, he won’t go for it.

Having said that, the filth that blindly support him no matter what will continue to do so.
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:01 pm

casinterest wrote:
Hopefully there are some satellite shots of the attack.

Not sure what satellite photos would show that can't be seen on the ground after the fact.

Usable radar tracks would of more interest to me, ones that could trace the path from source to destination.

IIRC Saudia operates AWACS and maybe they've gathered some data that could do so, but it'd be darn difficult to pick the drones out of ground clutter if they were programmed to fly low enough.

CNN reports:

Houthi drones are based on Iranian models, themselves often developed from North Korean technology. They are mostly short-range, up to 186 miles (300 km). However, a UN experts' panel reported in January on the deployment of longer-range drones "that would allow the Houthi forces to strike targets deep into Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates."

And:

Houthi drones are based on Iranian models, themselves often developed from North Korean technology. They are mostly short-range, up to 186 miles (300 km). However, a UN experts' panel reported in January on the deployment of longer-range drones "that would allow the Houthi forces to strike targets deep into Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates."

Pro-Iranian militia are well-entrenched in southern Iraq, and the Quds Force, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards unit in charge of foreign operations, has a presence there. Earlier this year, some regional analysts assessed that a drone attack on a pumping station at Afif in northern Saudi Arabia originated in Iraq. But no hard evidence was produced.


NYT reports:

Analysts who closely follow the Saudi oil industry said they were hearing that the impact would not be severe — perhaps only a few days’ outage, which the Saudis could cover.

“Crude prices will still rise a bit, but apparently the world economy dodged a bullet,” said Robert McNally, the president of Rapidan Energy Group, a Washington-based market research firm.

The Energy Department said that, if needed, the United States was ready to use its strategic oil reserves to offset any disruption in supply.

Yet:

The strike on one of the oil installations, in Abqaiq, was particularly worrying because it processes crude from several key Saudi oil fields, said Helima Croft, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, an investment bank.

“This is the mother lode for an attack on Saudi infrastructure,” she said. “We have always been concerned about an attack on Abqaiq.”

Amy Myers Jaffe, a Middle East energy analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the attacker was “knowledgeable, picking the maximum place for impact and damage.”

Rapidan Energy Group called Abqaiq by far the most important oil facility in the world.

“A successful attack on Abqaiq is about the worst thing energy security planners think about,” because the specialized equipment there would be difficult to quickly replace, said Mr. McNally, Rapidan’s president and a former White House energy adviser under President George W. Bush.


Ref: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/14/worl ... ttack.html

Seems we do have an escalation in progress, with a lot of unknowns about how much more escalation can be expected.
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Aaron747
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:22 pm

Revelation wrote:
Seems we do have an escalation in progress, with a lot of unknowns about how much more escalation can be expected.


As Spock once said with authority: “that much is certain”
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Sun Sep 15, 2019 3:14 pm

The US and its allies assume the right to strike frequent lethal blows against foes, and assume it is illegitimate for them to strike back.

Me - lets spend $trillions and with our western allies get off most oil. Go electric. We will save enough money to offer foreign aid to a petroleum allies in the Mideast.
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Aaron747
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:14 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
The US and its allies assume the right to strike frequent lethal blows against foes, and assume it is illegitimate for them to strike back.

Me - lets spend $trillions and with our western allies get off most oil. Go electric. We will save enough money to offer foreign aid to a petroleum allies in the Mideast.


To be fair, the US government is ‘allies’ with KSA’s government - they are no friends of the American people.
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:28 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
To be fair, the US government is ‘allies’ with KSA’s government - they are no friends of the American people.

US government appears to be more friends with KSA’s government than with their own population :-)
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Ken777
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:47 pm

It's hard to complain about Iran helping Yemen with military equipment when the US helps the Saudi military at a far higher level.

Maybe we should be recommending that a Saudi Peace Offering being delivered with immediately pulling military attacks against Yemen. After this major attack on the Saudi refinery it might be time for the Saudi Kingdom to ask themselves how many more of these types of attacks they can afford.
 
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:53 pm

I can see a Saudi-Israeli coalition forming. The US will not get involved outside of "support".

But if China or the Russians want to get involved "keeping the peace", who cares? US interests in the ME are waning. Finally.
 
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Mon Sep 16, 2019 12:45 am

mham001 wrote:
I can see a Saudi-Israeli coalition forming. The US will not get involved outside of "support".

But if China or the Russians want to get involved "keeping the peace", who cares? US interests in the ME are waning. Finally.


Not according to 45’s tweet an hour ago:

Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!
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mham001
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:27 am

Aaron747 wrote:
mham001 wrote:
I can see a Saudi-Israeli coalition forming. The US will not get involved outside of "support".

But if China or the Russians want to get involved "keeping the peace", who cares? US interests in the ME are waning. Finally.


Not according to 45’s tweet an hour ago:

Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!


Yea, if I were an Iranian leader, I'd probably find a different place to sleep tonight.

But let the Saudis & Friends lead this. Help them target the Quds and let Israel loose on the nuclear facilities. For awhile.

I wonder what this does for Netanyahu's reelection.
 
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:31 am

mham001 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
mham001 wrote:
I can see a Saudi-Israeli coalition forming. The US will not get involved outside of "support".

But if China or the Russians want to get involved "keeping the peace", who cares? US interests in the ME are waning. Finally.


Not according to 45’s tweet an hour ago:

Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!


Yea, if I were an Iranian leader, I'd probably find a different place to sleep tonight.

But let the Saudis & Friends lead this. Help them target the Quds and let Israel loose on the nuclear facilities. For awhile.

I wonder what this does for Netanyahu's reelection.


Hell of a thing to be helping KSA with their little war while another 9/11 anniversary comes and goes and another DOJ places Riyadh’s needs above 9/11 families, no? The mind boggles at the ‘patriotism’ in DC.
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:48 am

mham001 wrote:
I wonder what this does for Netanyahu's reelection.

Apparently, he's screwed; he'll at minimum, loose his majority, which means he's extremely exposed to the ongoing legal probe into him, or he'll get tossed out of office.
 
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:04 pm

Oil prices just closed in NY, up about 12%
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mham001
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:06 pm

Aaron747 wrote:

Hell of a thing to be helping KSA with their little war while another 9/11 anniversary comes and goes and another DOJ places Riyadh’s needs above 9/11 families, no? The mind boggles at the ‘patriotism’ in DC.


Not sure what part of "stable energy prices" you don't understand but as I recall way way back, last week, the DOJ announced it would release Saudi names linked to 9/11 for the benefit of the families suing KSA. What did Trump do wrong this time?
 
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Mon Sep 16, 2019 9:13 pm

727LOVER wrote:
Oil prices just closed in NY, up about 12%


Probably a good time to buy some long term puts. I have a suspicion the fields will be back on rather soon, and the downward trend will renew.
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Aaron747
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:59 am

mham001 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Hell of a thing to be helping KSA with their little war while another 9/11 anniversary comes and goes and another DOJ places Riyadh’s needs above 9/11 families, no? The mind boggles at the ‘patriotism’ in DC.


Not sure what part of "stable energy prices" you don't understand but as I recall way way back, last week, the DOJ announced it would release Saudi names linked to 9/11 for the benefit of the families suing KSA. What did Trump do wrong this time?


KSA is only 11% of US oil - their production would continue whether or not their government is embarrassed. Either way the victims’ families should not be secondary to one market index price.

AG Barr agreed to release the name of one official only to families’ legal counsel but several hundred other FBI documents about Saudi involvement were kept redacted under state secrets provisions, citing ‘national security’ concerns. 45, 44, and 43 have all done this wrong.
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mham001
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:29 am

Aaron747 wrote:

KSA is only 11% of US oil - their production would continue whether or not their government is embarrassed. Either way the victims’ families should not be secondary to one market index price.

AG Barr agreed to release the name of one official only to families’ legal counsel but several hundred other FBI documents about Saudi involvement were kept redacted under state secrets provisions, citing ‘national security’ concerns. 45, 44, and 43 have all done this wrong.


I think you missed the part about "stable energy prices" again.
 
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:41 am

mham001 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

KSA is only 11% of US oil - their production would continue whether or not their government is embarrassed. Either way the victims’ families should not be secondary to one market index price.

AG Barr agreed to release the name of one official only to families’ legal counsel but several hundred other FBI documents about Saudi involvement were kept redacted under state secrets provisions, citing ‘national security’ concerns. 45, 44, and 43 have all done this wrong.


I think you missed the part about "stable energy prices" again.


Another clear example of another WH putting economic interests above families who lost everything...right is right, wrong is wrong. Also says a lot about the state involved that public shame must be avoided at all costs from an ocean away.

What is the true cost of ‘stable energy prices’? Incredibly the question remains relevant.
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SanDiegoLover
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:17 am

mham001 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

KSA is only 11% of US oil - their production would continue whether or not their government is embarrassed. Either way the victims’ families should not be secondary to one market index price.

AG Barr agreed to release the name of one official only to families’ legal counsel but several hundred other FBI documents about Saudi involvement were kept redacted under state secrets provisions, citing ‘national security’ concerns. 45, 44, and 43 have all done this wrong.


I think you missed the part about "stable energy prices" again.


Just be honest when we are sending young men and women off to die in a war with Iran, this time, that they are dying for “stable oil prices”, instead of that bs you spewed last time we went to war in Iraq....you know....WMDs that didn’t exist, or “freedom”, or “we have to fight them there”, or “they hate us for our freedoms”...you and yours spewed last time. Deal?

You: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1113153&p=15101785&hilit=Iraq#p15101785
 
alfa164
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:47 am

SanDiegoLover wrote:
mham001 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
KSA is only 11% of US oil - their production would continue whether or not their government is embarrassed. Either way the victims’ families should not be secondary to one market index price. AG Barr agreed to release the name of one official only to families’ legal counsel but several hundred other FBI documents about Saudi involvement were kept redacted under state secrets provisions, citing ‘national security’ concerns. 45, 44, and 43 have all done this wrong.

I think you missed the part about "stable energy prices" again.


Just be honest when we are sending young men and women off to die in a war with Iran, this time, that they are dying for “stable oil prices”, instead of that bs you spewed last time we went to war in Iraq....you know....WMDs that didn’t exist, or “freedom”, or “we have to fight them there”, or “they hate us for our freedoms”...you and yours spewed last time. Deal?

You: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1113153&p=15101785&hilit=Iraq#p15101785


Great find! I am still waiting for his prediction: "It is quite interesting to hear the Bush-haters when they start putting up statues of Bush in the middle east."

I guess we are still waiting for those statues...

;)
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SanDiegoLover
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:52 am

alfa164 wrote:
SanDiegoLover wrote:
mham001 wrote:
I think you missed the part about "stable energy prices" again.


Just be honest when we are sending young men and women off to die in a war with Iran, this time, that they are dying for “stable oil prices”, instead of that bs you spewed last time we went to war in Iraq....you know....WMDs that didn’t exist, or “freedom”, or “we have to fight them there”, or “they hate us for our freedoms”...you and yours spewed last time. Deal?

You: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1113153&p=15101785&hilit=Iraq#p15101785


Great find! I am still waiting for his prediction: "It is quite interesting to hear the Bush-haters when they start putting up statues of Bush in the middle east."

I guess we are still waiting for those statues...

;)


I’m sure in just another 20 years or so they will be all over Baghdad.
 
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:04 am

Aaron747 wrote:
mham001 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Hell of a thing to be helping KSA with their little war while another 9/11 anniversary comes and goes and another DOJ places Riyadh’s needs above 9/11 families, no? The mind boggles at the ‘patriotism’ in DC.


Not sure what part of "stable energy prices" you don't understand but as I recall way way back, last week, the DOJ announced it would release Saudi names linked to 9/11 for the benefit of the families suing KSA. What did Trump do wrong this time?


KSA is only 11% of US oil - their production would continue whether or not their government is embarrassed. Either way the victims’ families should not be secondary to one market index price.

AG Barr agreed to release the name of one official only to families’ legal counsel but several hundred other FBI documents about Saudi involvement were kept redacted under state secrets provisions, citing ‘national security’ concerns. 45, 44, and 43 have all done this wrong.


Are the families of the million+ dead in Iraq allowed to sue the US government, or is it a one way street ?
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Aesma
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:07 am

mham001 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
mham001 wrote:
I can see a Saudi-Israeli coalition forming. The US will not get involved outside of "support".

But if China or the Russians want to get involved "keeping the peace", who cares? US interests in the ME are waning. Finally.


Not according to 45’s tweet an hour ago:

Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!


Yea, if I were an Iranian leader, I'd probably find a different place to sleep tonight.

But let the Saudis & Friends lead this. Help them target the Quds and let Israel loose on the nuclear facilities. For awhile.

I wonder what this does for Netanyahu's reelection.


So, a hot war with SA, Iran and Israel (with Iraq and Syria thrown in) should lead to stable oil prices ?

I'm sure some hotheads in the three main countries involved are eager to send others fight such a war, but I doubt the population that will suffer in all three countries is of the same opinion.
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:18 am

Aesma wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
mham001 wrote:

Not sure what part of "stable energy prices" you don't understand but as I recall way way back, last week, the DOJ announced it would release Saudi names linked to 9/11 for the benefit of the families suing KSA. What did Trump do wrong this time?


KSA is only 11% of US oil - their production would continue whether or not their government is embarrassed. Either way the victims’ families should not be secondary to one market index price.

AG Barr agreed to release the name of one official only to families’ legal counsel but several hundred other FBI documents about Saudi involvement were kept redacted under state secrets provisions, citing ‘national security’ concerns. 45, 44, and 43 have all done this wrong.


Are the families of the million+ dead in Iraq allowed to sue the US government, or is it a one way street ?


Obviously they are not - one of the reasons Obama vetoed the JASTA bill was because he believed subjecting KSA to suit would open the floodgates to claims against the US. He was morally bankrupt in that decision and many others.
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:31 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Hell of a thing to be helping KSA with their little war while another 9/11 anniversary comes and goes and another DOJ places Riyadh’s needs above 9/11 families, no? The mind boggles at the ‘patriotism’ in DC.

One goal is being met: keep the Muslims busy hating and killing each other so they're less likely to hit the USA.

I guess people aren't thinking very well: 10 drones are damn easy to import into the USA legally or not, also damn easy to set up and launch within striking distance of similar US oil infrastructure that would burn just as easily. Drones with autopilot and GPS homing don't need daylight, so the team doing the launching could set things up could be making their escape at night even before the targets are hit.

Pretty much every major international airport has a tank farm near by, set that ablaze and you can shut down air traffic for long periods of time, along with making a big PR splash.

I guess I read too many Tom Clancy novels, but these scenarios must worry policy makers.
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:46 pm

Revelation wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Hell of a thing to be helping KSA with their little war while another 9/11 anniversary comes and goes and another DOJ places Riyadh’s needs above 9/11 families, no? The mind boggles at the ‘patriotism’ in DC.

I guess people aren't thinking very well: 10 drones are damn easy to import into the USA legally or not, also damn easy to set up and launch within striking distance of similar US oil infrastructure that would burn just as easily. Drones with autopilot and GPS homing don't need daylight, so the team doing the launching could set things up could be making their escape at night even before the targets are hit.

Pretty much every major international airport has a tank farm near by, set that ablaze and you can shut down air traffic for long periods of time, along with making a big PR splash.

I guess I read too many Tom Clancy novels, but these scenarios must worry policy makers.


That’s certainly a concern, among others, but staying so close to an ‘ally’ that continues to fund radicalism in multiple countries is not what sensible people call prevention. And then there’s the deference in the name of ‘stable oil prices’:

“Trump awaits instructions from his Saudi masters. Having our country act as Saudi Arabia's bitch is not ‘America First,’” Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, who is running for the Democratic nomination for president, tweeted on Sunday night.

https://www.politico.com/amp/story/2019 ... an-1498147
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:21 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
That’s certainly a concern, among others, but staying so close to an ‘ally’ that continues to fund radicalism in multiple countries is not what sensible people call prevention.

Iran funds Shia radicals.

Saudia funds Sunni radicals.

The squabbles have been going on since Mohammad died without leaving a succession plan.

There's no "prevent" to be had.
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:25 pm

Great! They can have at it then, without us in the crosshairs by choosing sides (which still didn’t keep us safe) and all the associated cost.
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:44 pm

Hope you bought those puts.

https://oilprice.com

Oil prices are down 4-6% today.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/oil-sli ... tacks.html

POINTS
The kingdom’s oil output will be fully back online in the next two to three weeks, Reuters reported, citing top Saudi sources briefed on the oil operations.
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seb146
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:47 pm

Houthi rebels in Yemen claim responsibility for the attack. Let's invade Iran!

or:

Taliban government in Afghanistan claim responsibility for 9/11 so let's invade Iraq!
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
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jdstJD
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:54 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
So this is how it starts, the war Trump needs to keep him in the White House, nothing better than a war to rally the population around a failing President.


I’m not so sure about that but if that is the “strategy” then that’s very dangerous since no one knows how a war will end or how long it will last. He would be taking a huge risk that a contrived war would devastate his chances at reelection if the war goes the wrong direction for the U.S. Especially when people remember his provocative “locked and loaded” nonsense. :roll:
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trpmb6
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:33 pm

We haven't had anything in the way of facts in quite a few posts so lets reground: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/satelli ... lants.html

To me, the most striking aspect of this is the precision with which the strike was done. Look at the images of the storage tanks. Each one was hit almost exactly the same. This is of benefit to our analysts though. This provides quite a bit of certainty with how the missiles were launched, and from where. Per the article, the strikes came from the west by northwest. So not yemen. But not Iran either. At least not directly.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:53 pm

Oil supply is back online. Gotta wonder if this is from production increase at all their scaled back sites, or lucky ability to bypass targeted areas.

Based on the article Trpmb6 posted, the strikes were so surgical workarounds were easy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/saudi-e ... nline.html


"he comments came during a press conference by Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman.

The world’s largest crude oil processing facility and heartbeat of Saudi Arabia’s energy industry was targeted in drone attacks early Saturday morning that knocked out half of the OPEC kingpin’s production capac:
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mham001
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:19 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
We haven't had anything in the way of facts in quite a few posts so lets reground: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/satelli ... lants.html

To me, the most striking aspect of this is the precision with which the strike was done. Look at the images of the storage tanks. Each one was hit almost exactly the same. This is of benefit to our analysts though. This provides quite a bit of certainty with how the missiles were launched, and from where. Per the article, the strikes came from the west by northwest. So not yemen. But not Iran either. At least not directly.


I spent time and posted the hardware the Houthi's possess yesterday, outlining their abilities, with pretty pictures and all but it was summarily deleted, of course. For a supposed ragtag band of rebels, they have a very impressive array of fancy weapons. Their missiles don't have a range more than 160 km but their drones do. This means they could simply waypoint from a different direction. The targets are over 800 km from their territory. The Houthi's initially claimed to have sent ten projectiles however we are apparently looking at 14 or 17? hits.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:01 pm

mham001 wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
We haven't had anything in the way of facts in quite a few posts so lets reground: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/satelli ... lants.html

To me, the most striking aspect of this is the precision with which the strike was done. Look at the images of the storage tanks. Each one was hit almost exactly the same. This is of benefit to our analysts though. This provides quite a bit of certainty with how the missiles were launched, and from where. Per the article, the strikes came from the west by northwest. So not yemen. But not Iran either. At least not directly.


I spent time and posted the hardware the Houthi's possess yesterday, outlining their abilities, with pretty pictures and all but it was summarily deleted, of course. For a supposed ragtag band of rebels, they have a very impressive array of fancy weapons. Their missiles don't have a range more than 160 km but their drones do. This means they could simply waypoint from a different direction. The targets are over 800 km from their territory. The Houthi's initially claimed to have sent ten projectiles however we are apparently looking at 14 or 17? hits.


From my understanding, and I can of course be wrong in this, the strikes were made by scud missiles and the drones were simply utilized as targeting devices. The directionality of the strikes and the use of Scud missiles (which I don't believe can be released via the drones available) make things confusing in my eye. The strikes came from the west. Theres nothing to the west except the red sea. So perhaps they weren't Scud missiles and something else delivered via drone. Beginning to move towards that myself.
 
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seb146
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:45 pm

Saudi Arabia will pay cash so it is fine for us to fight a war for them? What the actual eff???

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/09/ ... ption.html
https://theweek.com/speedreads/865446/t ... -pays-cash

Another effed up part of all of this is he can just ignore the Constitution and declare an emergency and deploy troops. The United States was not attacked, American lives were not lost, Yemeni Houthis claimed responsibility but, yeah, let's invade Iran. This is so messed up....
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Aaron747
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:14 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
mham001 wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
We haven't had anything in the way of facts in quite a few posts so lets reground: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/satelli ... lants.html

To me, the most striking aspect of this is the precision with which the strike was done. Look at the images of the storage tanks. Each one was hit almost exactly the same. This is of benefit to our analysts though. This provides quite a bit of certainty with how the missiles were launched, and from where. Per the article, the strikes came from the west by northwest. So not yemen. But not Iran either. At least not directly.


I spent time and posted the hardware the Houthi's possess yesterday, outlining their abilities, with pretty pictures and all but it was summarily deleted, of course. For a supposed ragtag band of rebels, they have a very impressive array of fancy weapons. Their missiles don't have a range more than 160 km but their drones do. This means they could simply waypoint from a different direction. The targets are over 800 km from their territory. The Houthi's initially claimed to have sent ten projectiles however we are apparently looking at 14 or 17? hits.


From my understanding, and I can of course be wrong in this, the strikes were made by scud missiles and the drones were simply utilized as targeting devices. The directionality of the strikes and the use of Scud missiles (which I don't believe can be released via the drones available) make things confusing in my eye. The strikes came from the west. Theres nothing to the west except the red sea. So perhaps they weren't Scud missiles and something else delivered via drone. Beginning to move towards that myself.


So either the Houthis were able to get up the Red Sea without Egypt noticing, or KSA staged the attack itself as a litmus test or pricing ploy. Nice.
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Revelation
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:18 pm

mham001 wrote:
For a supposed ragtag band of rebels, they have a very impressive array of fancy weapons. Their missiles don't have a range more than 160 km but their drones do. This means they could simply waypoint from a different direction. The targets are over 800 km from their territory. The Houthi's initially claimed to have sent ten projectiles however we are apparently looking at 14 or 17? hits.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/2 ... facilities is a good summation of some capabilities but leaves pretty much every question unanswered.

casinterest wrote:
Oil supply is back online. Gotta wonder if this is from production increase at all their scaled back sites, or lucky ability to bypass targeted areas.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/2 ... ter-issues says:

The post-strike satellite images provided by the U.S. Government clearly show just how precise the weapons used were, punching near-identical placed holes into major components of Saudi Arabia's oil apparatus. The idea that these same weapons, which have to use some form of autopilot to accurately fly to their target area over long distances, can't simply hit an offset waypoint away from the target before making their final attack run is laughable. In other words, this is not unguided artillery here, it can maneuver dynamically to approach a target from a direction that its targeters find most advantageous—either for kinetic effects, survivability, or deniability reasons.

So seems like the strikes were so 'pinpoint' that they took out out a few important things but not enough to prevent redundant supplies from coming online.

trpmb6 wrote:
From my understanding, and I can of course be wrong in this, the strikes were made by scud missiles and the drones were simply utilized as targeting devices. The directionality of the strikes and the use of Scud missiles (which I don't believe can be released via the drones available) make things confusing in my eye. The strikes came from the west. Theres nothing to the west except the red sea. So perhaps they weren't Scud missiles and something else delivered via drone. Beginning to move towards that myself.

I doubt it, Scuds will not be this precise, and these weapons could have come from any direction.

Another interesting quote:

Regardless of their origin, when I first saw the damage, I felt like drones were potentially part of the attack, but likely not the only weapons employed. In fact, it looked a lot like a cruise missile strike with some of those weapons being equipped with shaped charges for penetrating fortified structures and others being equipped with general high explosives warheads for greater effects against unfortified structures. Whoever planned the strike had a very good understanding of the facilities targeted and what their components do, as well as their vulnerabilities and propensity for secondary effects. In other words, it wasn't just showering a target area with explosive-laden drones or even picking some important-looking structures targeting those. The targeting was systemic in nature and high in quality.

The rest of the article points out how difficult it is to stop even this relatively small scale and unsophisticated attack, and now the US DoD seems to be well behind the curve with regard to dealing with the kinds of attacks that the technology would support now or in the near future.
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Aaron747
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:05 am

mham001 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
So either the Houthis were able to get up the Red Sea without Egypt noticing, or KSA staged the attack itself as a litmus test or pricing ploy. Nice.


Yea, it doesn't mean that at all, but don't fall over yourself trying to exonerate other actors.

Your lack of geography knowledge is notable as well.


Can read maps just fine, thanks.

Image

If you are suggesting the strikes came from shia Iraq, by all means, say so, but the US claims that’s not the case.
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Aaron747
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Wed Sep 18, 2019 4:11 am

mham001 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
mham001 wrote:

Yea, it doesn't mean that at all, but don't fall over yourself trying to exonerate other actors.

Your lack of geography knowledge is notable as well.


Can read maps just fine, thanks.


I encourage you to notice the location of the strikes and explain to the class how Egypt?! would have been in a position to see Houthis. Please.

Bottom line, Iran was behind it one way or another. For those who are going to kneejerk about Iran's innocence, we are still waiting for Iran to disclose their investigation of that mine they snatched from that tanker.


Egypt does wide monitoring of the Red Sea in that area oriented west-northwest of the attack sites - as there are virtually no large settlements on the west coast of KSA after Jeddah. Rebels disguised as small fishing trawlers could make their way up the Red Sea in that fashion. This all is perfectly obvious to anyone familiar with the region.

While nobody here is defending Iran, it is quite odd how you have such zeal against them while being so neutral about the kingdom we should all worship on the altar of ‘stable oil prices’ - as if they are not capable of subterfuge.
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WIederling
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:18 am

".. There are even indications of finesse in the strike’s “weaponeering,” the technical term for munition selection and modification. Some “aimpoints” were clearly hit with large explosive payloads consistent with an Iranian cruise missile such as the 700-kilometer-range Ya-Ali. Yet the gas-oil separation tanks appear to have been struck with high-velocity kinetic force sans explosions, perhaps signaling an effort to damage but not permanently destroy them. Similar finesse was visible in Iran’s May 12 attacks in the Fujairah anchorage off the United Arab Emirates, where four ships had their hulls expertly holed without causing the vessels to spill oil, sink, or suffer massive fires."


Going by their existing "War toy departments" the US and Israel are at the very top of the list of suspects, aren't they?
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sonicruiser
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Re: Oil Fields Attack

Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:02 am

There's a great analysis by Washington Institute: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pol ... deterrence

The strike was highly effective from a military perspective. The weapons hit at around 4 a.m. local time and appear to have struck from a northerly or northwesterly direction. This fits with a string of reporting that suggests related air defense alerts and engine sounds were concentrated in areas of the northern Persian Gulf, as opposed to an ingress route from Yemen. Strong U.S. government statements have ruled out Yemen (on September 14) and Iraq (on September 16), so the focus is narrowing to a direct strike originating from Iran.

These factors—plus the lack of attempted air defense interception by numerous overlapping Hawk and Patriot missile batteries—suggest a low-level cruise missile attack that hugged the ground at altitudes of under 300 feet. The footage seen thus far shows only one crashed missile, indicating that the arrival rate was very high, possibly even 95 percent, and that routes were carefully planned to avoid obstacles such as power lines and communication towers.

Seventeen individual impact points were struck at the Abqaiq facility, with a smaller number (perhaps as low as two) at Khurais. The weapons were highly accurate—for instance, all twelve of the thirty-meter-wide spheroid gas-oil separation tanks at Abqaiq were hit almost dead center. Much thinner stabilization towers were also accurately struck.

There are even indications of finesse in the strike’s “weaponeering,” the technical term for munition selection and modification. Some “aimpoints” were clearly hit with large explosive payloads consistent with an Iranian cruise missile such as the 700-kilometer-range Ya-Ali. Yet the gas-oil separation tanks appear to have been struck with high-velocity kinetic force sans explosions, perhaps signaling an effort to damage but not permanently destroy them. Similar finesse was visible in Iran’s May 12 attacks in the Fujairah anchorage off the United Arab Emirates, where four ships had their hulls expertly holed without causing the vessels to spill oil, sink, or suffer massive fires.

The full level of damage inflicted this Saturday is unknown so far, but considering the range of facilities struck and the long lead times for manufacturing such specialized equipment, the impact on Saudi oil processing capacity could extend into the four-, six-, or even twelve-month timeframe, forcing the kingdom to discontinue offering Arab Light and Arab Super Light grades. This extraordinary outcome would deeply shock oil markets and the Saudi leadership alike. And from a military perspective, no energy sector has been struck so effectively since the U.S. coalition’s precision bombing of Iraq in 1991.


By the sound of things, this was a very sophisticated operation with extensive planning. Cruise missiles flying under a 300ft ceiling would signify a very high level of confidence in its abilities to strike desired targets. If true, the part about the missiles navigating power lines and communication towers is pretty extraordinary, and they definitely know what they are doing to have accounted for such a sharp level of detail and guidance.

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