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Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 12:18 pm
by THS214
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 50271.html

Turkish president Erdogan threatens EU. In this case he will lose and big (I think). First of all only that treat is bad for Turkey. Secondly if he opens the border then EU countries will close theirs. Then close aviation etc. between Turkey and EU and Turkish, Pegasus etc will go down. Tourism to Turkey will collapse as well as all the trade between Turkey and EU. In the end most of those refugees will stay in Turkey but Turkish economy will collapse without any real impact (as long as the border is tight) to EU.

Is he out of his mind or is there something I don't understand?

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 12:36 pm
by L410Turbolet
THS214 wrote:
Is he out of his mind or is there something I don't understand?

If anyone was out of her mind, it was Merkel who signed the dirty deal with Erdogan, basically letting him hold EU's proverbial collective balls. He would be stupid not to squeeze them whenever he needs it.

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 12:56 pm
by Jetty
Europe should cripple the Turkish economy which it can easily do and teach Erdogan and the Turkish people a lesson. I he wants to send refugees I suggest we send him Turkish nationals in return to make some space.

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 2:09 pm
by SAS A340
Then EU should do what Russia did, enable tourist flights to Turkey..... Erdogan got that message and within a week or two, he stood at his knees and beg for forgiveness!

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 2:34 pm
by Thunderboltdrgn
THS214 wrote:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/erdogan-syria-turkey-kurds-europe-refugees-invasion-sdf-latest-middle-east-a9150271.html

Turkish president Erdogan threatens EU. In this case he will lose and big (I think). First of all only that treat is bad for Turkey. Secondly if he opens the border then EU countries will close theirs. Then close aviation etc. between Turkey and EU and Turkish, Pegasus etc will go down. Tourism to Turkey will collapse as well as all the trade between Turkey and EU. In the end most of those refugees will stay in Turkey but Turkish economy will collapse without any real impact (as long as the border is tight) to EU.

Is he out of his mind or is there something I don't understand?


Wouldn't be surprised if there is some agreement/understanding between Erdogan, Putin and Ttump in attempt to try to weaken the EU, especially now with Brexit and so.

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 3:06 pm
by tommy1808
L410Turbolet wrote:
THS214 wrote:
Is he out of his mind or is there something I don't understand?

If anyone was out of her mind, it was Merkel who signed the dirty deal with Erdogan


You are aware that she didn't sign it any more or less than any other EU countries head of state/government, right?

If he does make this threat come true, we should make sure no refugee seeker makes it out of Hungry. After all Orban started the whole mess and we can't have him command the countries public transport to facilitate human trafficking like the last time.

Best regards
Thomas

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 3:12 pm
by Loew
Uhm, and how exactly is he going to do that? It´s not like the EU is clueless and has open outer border while good uncle Erdogan is holding off hordes of immigrants just because he loves the EU so much.

Lets put aside, that today Erdogan doesn´t even have those immigrants to flood Europe with. For example in 2018 there were some 580 000 arrivals to Turkey, and for many of those Turkey is already final destination. But even if full 580 000 would attempt to move to the EU, very few would actually make it. But even if full 580 000 would make it, this represents about 0,1% of all EU population LOL. So yeah, what a great, massive crisis. Erdogan btw. is not clueless himself, so Turkey borders are actually guarded to prevent illegal migration as much as possible.

Now as 2015 is long gone, much has happened since then and a lot is still in process. EU land border is not a problem, the sea is. There are thousands of inhabitated islands under Greek control in the Aegean sea. It is simply impossible to guard all of them to keep migrants out. Thats where the deal with Turkey comes to place, as these immigrants are returned to Turkey in exchange for EU financial funds.

Erdgoan surely can open his western border, and tell those people to walk towards Bulgaria, however I have no idea how he can make sure all of those people will actually cross the border into Bulgaria. Of course he can tell those people to get on boats and swim to Greece, which will see many of these people drowning on the way. And that is a great way to improve your international standing. It is also a great way to improve collapsing Turkish budget budget by cutting the EU income.

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 5:16 pm
by VSMUT
L410Turbolet wrote:
THS214 wrote:
Is he out of his mind or is there something I don't understand?

If anyone was out of her mind, it was Merkel who signed the dirty deal with Erdogan, basically letting him hold EU's proverbial collective balls. He would be stupid not to squeeze them whenever he needs it.


Eastern Europeans: Merkel is stupid for signing deals with Erdogan limiting refugees.
Also Eastern Europeans: Merkel needs to do something about the refugees!

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 5:40 pm
by seb146
Erdogan creates a humanitarian crisis and blames everyone else and wants everyone else to deal with the fallout. Does that about sum it up?

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 5:58 pm
by casinterest
seb146 wrote:
Erdogan creates a humanitarian crisis and blames everyone else and wants everyone else to deal with the fallout. Does that about sum it up?


Yes about sums it up. The US military that had helped keep stability in place pulled out at Trump's discretion( whatever he thinks that is) and subsequently Turkey started the operation.

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 6:38 pm
by anrec80
Jetty wrote:
Europe should cripple the Turkish economy which it can easily do and teach Erdogan and the Turkish people a lesson. I he wants to send refugees I suggest we send him Turkish nationals in return to make some space.


And how are you gonna send Erdogan Turkish nationals? Bulk of them are citizens of some European country (Germany I’d think mostly). For that, European countries need to implement massive immigration reforms - that are well overdue, but will probably impede someone’s rights, as usual. A no go in EU. Speaking of sanctions - EU already got into sanctions spiral with Russians and now doesn’t know how to get out of it.

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 6:42 pm
by anrec80
SAS A340 wrote:
Then EU should do what Russia did, enable tourist flights to Turkey..... Erdogan got that message and within a week or two, he stood at his knees and beg for forgiveness!


It was not for the tourist flights. It was for an attempt of an armed coup targeting Erdogan. And it were allegedly Russian secret services that warned him. This is when he changed his direction.

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 6:43 pm
by anrec80
VSMUT wrote:
Eastern Europeans: Merkel is stupid for signing deals with Erdogan limiting refugees.
Also Eastern Europeans: Merkel needs to do something about the refugees!


To begin with - not let them in. And stop attracting them with welfare benefits.

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 6:46 pm
by anrec80
tommy1808 wrote:
If he does make this threat come true, we should make sure no refugee seeker makes it out of Hungry. After all Orban started the whole mess and we can't have him command the countries public transport to facilitate human trafficking like the last time.

Best regards
Thomas


What does Orban have to do here? He did not initiate any wars anywhere.

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 7:57 pm
by L410Turbolet
tommy1808 wrote:
You are aware that she didn't sign it any more or less than any other EU countries head of state/government, right?

You are right, I stand corrected: she negotiated the dirty deal with Erdogan, which bribed him in exchange for doing EU's job - protecting the outer border. Merkel signed the other dirty deal... the one with Putin.

tommy1808 wrote:
After all Orban started the whole mess and we can't have him command the countries public transport to facilitate human trafficking like the last time.

[/quote]
Orbán started the whole mess? Really? He definitely Is not my cup of tea, but I don't recall being it him, who made yet another knee-jerk decision "everyone come in"... escalating the whole crisis into six digit figures. The only ones facilitating human trafficking are Carola, MSF & Co.
You are of course more than welcome to do the Baghdad Bob schtick and pretend the dirty deal is the best thing since sliced bread even as it comes back to bite the EU in its socialist ass as we speak.

VSMUT wrote:
Eastern Europeans: Merkel is stupid for signing deals with Erdogan limiting refugees.
Also Eastern Europeans: Merkel needs to do something about the refugees!

Please show me when such requests were made? The only ones I recall were appeals to Merkel to stop being knee-jerk, gulit tripping lunatic who only incentivizes illegal migration, while trying to dump her guests on its neighbors.
There was always the option for EU's South to start protecting its outer border the same way those bad, bad Eastern Europeans are duly doing from Estonia to Slovakia and Hungary.

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 8:38 pm
by seb146
anrec80 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Eastern Europeans: Merkel is stupid for signing deals with Erdogan limiting refugees.
Also Eastern Europeans: Merkel needs to do something about the refugees!


To begin with - not let them in. And stop attracting them with welfare benefits.


Welfare benefits=not being shot at, raped, bombed, not rationing food and water.

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2019 8:49 pm
by mercure1
Bravo

Turkey has been holding the dam up for years by sheltering 3.5mil refugees at an immense expense to the benefit of Europe.

In 2016 Turkey was pledged €6 billion ($6.6 billion) to house refugees in camps annually by EU, yet so far (June 2019) only €5.8 billion has been allocated by EU and only €2.6 billion disbursed to Turkey. Total cost estimated by UN to house these refugees all this time sits at €36.5 billion!

The EU has failed to live up to its commitments, so it should not shock if the Turks being fed up open the doors.

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:28 am
by DTVG
mercure1 wrote:
Bravo

Turkey has been holding the dam up for years by sheltering 3.5mil refugees at an immense expense to the benefit of Europe.

In 2016 Turkey was pledged €6 billion ($6.6 billion) to house refugees in camps annually by EU, yet so far (June 2019) only €5.8 billion has been allocated by EU and only €2.6 billion disbursed to Turkey. Total cost estimated by UN to house these refugees all this time sits at €36.5 billion!

The EU has failed to live up to its commitments, so it should not shock if the Turks being fed up open the doors.


You make it sound as if the EU will not honor their side of the contract. I don’t see the issue of a 6bn (ongoing) project running 0.2bn short in allocation. The distribution of funds has somewhat stalled as there is a disagreement between the EU and Turkey when and how funds should be distributed, but that does not mean that the EU is failing live up to its own commitments.

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:34 am
by anrec80
DTVG wrote:
You make it sound as if the EU will not honor their side of the contract. I don’t see the issue of a 6bn (ongoing) project running 0.2bn short in allocation. The distribution of funds has somewhat stalled as there is a disagreement between the EU and Turkey when and how funds should be distributed, but that does not mean that the EU is failing live up to its own commitments.


The problem here is that out of promised 5.8 billion only 2.6 billion have been received by Turkey. The rest - may have been “apportioned” or even “allocated” somewhere, but that happens only in EU’s internal books, and not in Turkish bank accounts set up to service refugees’ needs. Turkey has zero access to any of those funds. This isn’t a contract honored obviously.

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2019 12:39 am
by anrec80
seb146 wrote:
Welfare benefits=not being shot at, raped, bombed, not rationing food and water.


There are plenty of places in this world where the refugees won’t be shot at, bombed, and have access to food and water. Most of Islamic world is in peace, and is quite wealthy - could share some with fellow Muslims, but isn’t eager for some reason. This is true in Russia, in most of Eastern Europe. But if you noticed - our refugees are trying hardest to land in Germany, Netherlands, UK, France - and not in Poland or Baltic states. The reason - pretty much anywhere outside of Western Europe they will have to actually work to earn their living, and this wasn’t their plan. They want free food assistance, free housing in European cities, free pocket money - all at the expense of European middle class. And EU leadership just doesn’t want to see this.

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2019 1:00 am
by DTVG
anrec80 wrote:
DTVG wrote:
You make it sound as if the EU will not honor their side of the contract. I don’t see the issue of a 6bn (ongoing) project running 0.2bn short in allocation. The distribution of funds has somewhat stalled as there is a disagreement between the EU and Turkey when and how funds should be distributed, but that does not mean that the EU is failing live up to its own commitments.


The problem here is that out of promised 5.8 billion only 2.6 billion have been received by Turkey. The rest - may have been “apportioned” or even “allocated” somewhere, but that happens only in EU’s internal books, and not in Turkish bank accounts set up to service refugees’ needs. Turkey has zero access to any of those funds. This isn’t a contract honored obviously.


The first half of the 6bn is to run project till mid 2021 ( 3bn allocation 2016 to 2017). The other half till mid 2025 (allocation 2018 to 2019). Of the first half everything has been allocated and contracted, but not everything disbursed. The second half is ongoing. The allocation of the second tranch is near complete, while contracting is ongoing. As the projects run from mid 2021 onwards, there is no urgency to disperse the funds. Also contracts are not necessarily with the Turkish government.

You are correct that a large part of this money is in the EU‘s internal books, but I don’t see any issue with that. As mentioned the projects of tranch 1 are running till 2021 and I don’t see anywhere (when reading the agreement) that the payments should have been completely disbursed by now. Of course if you can find facts that prove me wrong, please post them here.

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2019 1:04 am
by Aaron747
anrec80 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
Welfare benefits=not being shot at, raped, bombed, not rationing food and water.


There are plenty of places in this world where the refugees won’t be shot at, bombed, and have access to food and water. Most of Islamic world is in peace, and is quite wealthy - could share some with fellow Muslims, but isn’t eager for some reason. This is true in Russia, in most of Eastern Europe. But if you noticed - our refugees are trying hardest to land in Germany, Netherlands, UK, France - and not in Poland or Baltic states. The reason - pretty much anywhere outside of Western Europe they will have to actually work to earn their living, and this wasn’t their plan. They want free food assistance, free housing in European cities, free pocket money - all at the expense of European middle class. And EU leadership just doesn’t want to see this.


Actually agree - still don't understand why the EU, US, Russia together didn't pressure the GCC to be the primary refuge for Syrian refugees. They have the money and the space.

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2019 2:12 am
by WildcatYXU
tommy1808 wrote:
L410Turbolet wrote:
THS214 wrote:
Is he out of his mind or is there something I don't understand?

If anyone was out of her mind, it was Merkel who signed the dirty deal with Erdogan


You are aware that she didn't sign it any more or less than any other EU countries head of state/government, right?

If he does make this threat come true, we should make sure no refugee seeker makes it out of Hungry. After all Orban started the whole mess and we can't have him command the countries public transport to facilitate human trafficking like the last time.

Best regards
Thomas


You keep repeating this blatant lie. No, it won't become the truth regardless how many times you repeat it. How the hell could Orban start this whole mess? Do you realize that Hungary doesn't have any coast? So how did the migrants from other continents suddenly show up in Hungary without coming into contact with EU authorities? Did Scotty beam them there? Do you realize the migrants that reached Hungary already traveled through EU and then non EU countries before reaching the Hungarian border? Do you realize that they had absolutely no interest to stay in Hungary? And do you realize that Hungary was heavily criticized for protecting the Schengen border? And btw, talking of human trafficking, didn't you just have one human trafficker talking in the Bundestag?

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2019 8:55 am
by Jetty
anrec80 wrote:
Jetty wrote:
Europe should cripple the Turkish economy which it can easily do and teach Erdogan and the Turkish people a lesson. I he wants to send refugees I suggest we send him Turkish nationals in return to make some space.


And how are you gonna send Erdogan Turkish nationals? Bulk of them are citizens of some European country (Germany I’d think mostly). For that, European countries need to implement massive immigration reforms - that are well overdue, but will probably impede someone’s rights, as usual. A no go in EU.

If the relation with Turkey gets seriously hostile it’s pretty easy even with some countries’ current laws actually.

Former conscripts are reservists in the Turkish army until the age of 41 and many European dual-nationality Turkish males do a few weeks in the Turkish army. At least The Netherlands and the UK (but probably more countries) allow for taking away someone’s nationality if he/she is in service to a hostile foreign army. This is the same legal basis as already used to take away the nationality of members of the Islamic State. Currently being part of the same defense organization prohibits applying this to Turkish people but if that would change it very well could. This wouldn’t just be using a legal loophole, there is merit to not having tens of thousands of soldiers in service to Erdogans army in your country given his aggressive behavior.

It probably won’t get us to 3.6 million but does enable to send a meaningful number of Turkish nationals to Turkey.

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2019 2:41 pm
by anrec80
Jetty wrote:
If the relation with Turkey gets seriously hostile it’s pretty easy even with some countries’ current laws actually.


I wouldn’t be even certain even on that. You’ve got ample of offenders in EU who claimed to be 16 and while it was turning out they were 30. Same can be true about nationality.

Jetty wrote:
Former conscripts are reservists in the Turkish army until the age of 41 and many European dual-nationality Turkish males do a few weeks in the Turkish army. At least The Netherlands and the UK (but probably more countries) allow for taking away someone’s nationality if he/she is in service to a hostile foreign army. This is the same legal basis as already used to take away the nationality of members of the Islamic State. Currently being part of the same defense organization prohibits applying this to Turkish people but if that would change it very well could. This wouldn’t just be using a legal loophole, there is merit to not having tens of thousands of soldiers in service to Erdogans army in your country given his aggressive behavior.

Keep in mind - in each case, you will be required to prove that the person a) retained Turkish citizenship and b) they actually were in the Army when they were away. I am not even mentioning c) declaring an army of a fellow NATO member “hostile”. And no military hostility between members - is one of the pillars of this alliance.

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2019 4:08 pm
by THS214
2015 35 000 mostly Iraqi young (adult) males came to Finland as refugees. Since then child rapes has shot of the roof, many by these Iraqis. Today it was announced by the refugee authorities that at least 30-40% of these refugees are volunteer military that have deserted from military including officers. This number is minimum that can be proven. The real number is a lot more.

For years we have called the benefits these refugees get as "disco money". No wonder.

So Erdogan, send us those who are real refugees. Like women, children, old people.

Thanks.

Sorry, only in Finnish:

https://www.is.fi/kotimaa/art-2000006269849.html

Re: Erdogan threatens to flood EU with refugees

Posted: Sun Oct 13, 2019 4:20 pm
by jbpdx
Hopefully, Turkey will be expelled from NATO. And that’s just the beginning.