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steveinbc
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Trudeau squeaks into a minority govt. with lowest popular vote in Canadian history

Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:44 pm

Trudeau and the incumbent Liberal government were able to win a minority government with just 30% of the popular vote. The opposition Conservatives won 33% of the popular vote. Likely the Liberals will work out a deal with the far left leaning New Democrats to form government.
Interestingly, there was much made of Hillary winning the popular vote but losing to Trump. I wonder if there will be a similar media frenzy complaining about the Conservatives winning the most votes but the left-of-centre Liberals forming government......somehow I doubt it.
Overall, the election map shows a divided country politically like many other western countries. Canada is split west against east where, for example, Alberta and Saskatchewan provinces were a full sweep for the Conservatives and the Maritime provnces were almost exclusively Liberal.
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Dogman
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Re: Trudeau squeaks into a minority govt. with lowest popular vote in Canadian history

Tue Oct 22, 2019 2:28 pm

But there are more votes in total cast for the left and center-left parties than conservative parties. That's the true picture for popular vote, not comparing liberal to conservatives. Also, it is highly unlikely that the liberals will form any sort of coalition. Most likely they will work with the other parties on case per case basis. They need just 13 votes to pass a legislation.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Trudeau squeaks into a minority govt. with lowest popular vote in Canadian history

Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:30 pm

These are the consequences of first past the post, especially when 3-5 major parties are running. That Conservatives won 33% of the vote implies that there were provinces where they won many seats or seats with a lopsided margin, but failed to make inroads in others and fell short.

Comparing this election with the US presidential election is comparing apples and oranges. People weren't voting for a leader; they were voting for their local representative. A US equivalent scenario would be the House of Representatives election where the Speaker is the leader of the party with the most seats (or one that can gather 218 votes in their favor). That Democrats earned a larger voting percentage can be due to having states with higher concentrations of Democrats than Republicans, but people don't vote for the House to see if Pelosi or Ryan will be Speaker.

The US presidential election, however, means that votes are irrelevant as soon as a candidate earns a plurality because the extra votes will remained confined within the state. So while Clinton did win the popular vote but lost the election, people WERE voting between Clinton, Trump, Stein or Johnson (or more precisely, for people who would then vote on their behalf FOR these candidates), but their votes were (disproportionately*) weighted against each other.

*Yes, disproportionately, because for each state to have the same proportion, they must hold a multiple relative to the least populated state (so CA would need 66 EC votes as it has 66x WY's population; TX requires 49 because it has 49x WY's population, and so on). Not only that, but the winner take all approach also distorts the result by making the margin irrelevant (a 51-49 split means a majority, but shouldn't that 49% be represented? What about a 38-33-29 3-way split? Why should that 38% get all and leave the remaining 62% unrepresented?).
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cpd
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Re: Trudeau squeaks into a minority govt. with lowest popular vote in Canadian history

Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:09 pm

This seems to be a trend in some elections recently, minority governments. That suggests voters are disillusioned with all political parties.

To win, you have to bribe the voter with something expensive or present them with something scary that will happen unless you vote for me (even though it might be a complete fabrication).

That’s my take on it.
 
skyservice_330
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Re: Trudeau squeaks into a minority govt. with lowest popular vote in Canadian history

Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:46 pm

steveinbc wrote:
Trudeau and the incumbent Liberal government were able to win a minority government with just 30% of the popular vote. The opposition Conservatives won 33% of the popular vote. Likely the Liberals will work out a deal with the far left leaning New Democrats to form government.
Interestingly, there was much made of Hillary winning the popular vote but losing to Trump. I wonder if there will be a similar media frenzy complaining about the Conservatives winning the most votes but the left-of-centre Liberals forming government......somehow I doubt it.
Overall, the election map shows a divided country politically like many other western countries. Canada is split west against east where, for example, Alberta and Saskatchewan provinces were a full sweep for the Conservatives and the Maritime provnces were almost exclusively Liberal.


Can I ask where you got your figures? The only reason I ask is The National Post has them (in terms of popular vote) as of 1:45pm EST Oct 22 as -

Liberal - 33%
Conservative - 34%

It is the second time (happened once in 1867) that a party has formed government with less than 35% of the popular vote. As the article notes, it speaks to the inefficiency of Conservative support - too clustered, and not spread more widely and evenly like the Liberals.

Some general thoughts, in no particular order -
- The entire thing was lacking in excitement and very uninspiring.
- Singh did better than expected, overall, given the financial and organizational challenges the NDP faced going in to the campaign.
- Trudeau was beatable, but the Cons were disadvantaged where they needed it the most - Ontario. As one commentator noted, the conservative Premier of Ontario, Doug Ford, 'is polling somewhere between pink eye and the stomach flu in terms of popularity' and polling in parts of Ontario (e.g. 905) showed this.
- All the work that the CPC did under the Harper years to build support in Quebec seems to have collapsed, with the Bloc being a main beneficiary. That is too bad.
- Will be interesting to see where the LPC goes to secure support for votes. They align with the Bloc on some things, but the optics of working with the Bloc may not play well in other parts of the country.
- The attacks of the LPC on the CPC regarding same-sex marriage was ridiculous. Similarly, the outright falsehood Sheer pushed around raising around the LPC and NDP raising the GST was distasteful. Also, from what I hear from my CPC friends, the revelation that the CPC was working with Warren Kinsella to undermine Bernier and the PPC was not being received well by CPC members, supporters and donors. They don't donate to the CPC only to have the funds spent on former Liberal operatives.
- The toppling of Ralph Goodale by the CPC and of Lisa Riatt by the LPC were probably the two biggest shakeups. I didn't realize the effort the CPC had been putting that much effort in to topping Goodale.
- Will be interesting to see what happens with the Committees as, in minority, the LPC will lose some control of them. The Committees could be a powerful tool the opposition parties could use to continue to hammer the LPC on the SNC affair.

It will be interesting to see how the parties make this work as I don't believe voters would be forgiving if another election was forced in the near future.
 
StarAC17
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Re: Trudeau squeaks into a minority govt. with lowest popular vote in Canadian history

Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:50 pm

cpd wrote:
This seems to be a trend in some elections recently, minority governments. That suggests voters are disillusioned with all political parties.

To win, you have to bribe the voter with something expensive or present them with something scary that will happen unless you vote for me (even though it might be a complete fabrication).

That’s my take on it.


They are the best governments if those in government act like adults and compromise. If the liberals add confidence motions to every vote like the Harper government did in before winning his majority in 2011 then it will be a clusterf*ck. Some of Canada's best run governments have been minority governments.

skyservice_330 wrote:
steveinbc wrote:
Trudeau and the incumbent Liberal government were able to win a minority government with just 30% of the popular vote. The opposition Conservatives won 33% of the popular vote. Likely the Liberals will work out a deal with the far left leaning New Democrats to form government.
Interestingly, there was much made of Hillary winning the popular vote but losing to Trump. I wonder if there will be a similar media frenzy complaining about the Conservatives winning the most votes but the left-of-centre Liberals forming government......somehow I doubt it.
Overall, the election map shows a divided country politically like many other western countries. Canada is split west against east where, for example, Alberta and Saskatchewan provinces were a full sweep for the Conservatives and the Maritime provnces were almost exclusively Liberal.


Can I ask where you got your figures? The only reason I ask is The National Post has them (in terms of popular vote) as of 1:45pm EST Oct 22 as -

Liberal - 33%
Conservative - 34%

It is the second time (happened once in 1867) that a party has formed government with less than 35% of the popular vote. As the article notes, it speaks to the inefficiency of Conservative support - too clustered, and not spread more widely and evenly like the Liberals.

Some general thoughts, in no particular order -
- The entire thing was lacking in excitement and very uninspiring.
- Singh did better than expected, overall, given the financial and organizational challenges the NDP faced going in to the campaign.
- Trudeau was beatable, but the Cons were disadvantaged where they needed it the most - Ontario. As one commentator noted, the conservative Premier of Ontario, Doug Ford, 'is polling somewhere between pink eye and the stomach flu in terms of popularity' and polling in parts of Ontario (e.g. 905) showed this.
- All the work that the CPC did under the Harper years to build support in Quebec seems to have collapsed, with the Bloc being a main beneficiary. That is too bad.
- Will be interesting to see where the LPC goes to secure support for votes. They align with the Bloc on some things, but the optics of working with the Bloc may not play well in other parts of the country.
- The attacks of the LPC on the CPC regarding same-sex marriage was ridiculous. Similarly, the outright falsehood Sheer pushed around raising around the LPC and NDP raising the GST was distasteful. Also, from what I hear from my CPC friends, the revelation that the CPC was working with Warren Kinsella to undermine Bernier and the PPC was not being received well by CPC members, supporters and donors. They don't donate to the CPC only to have the funds spent on former Liberal operatives.
- The toppling of Ralph Goodale by the CPC and of Lisa Riatt by the LPC were probably the two biggest shakeups. I didn't realize the effort the CPC had been putting that much effort in to topping Goodale.
- Will be interesting to see what happens with the Committees as, in minority, the LPC will lose some control of them. The Committees could be a powerful tool the opposition parties could use to continue to hammer the LPC on the SNC affair.

It will be interesting to see how the parties make this work as I don't believe voters would be forgiving if another election was forced in the near future.


My takes on it.

- Singh did well outside of Quebec which considering their legislation on religious symbols in not surprising. There is a lot of racism in Quebec and Singh being a Sikh didn't do him any favours
- Bye Bernier, don't let the door hit you on the way out. Take May with you as she was not effective either
- Trudeau is very humbled and hopefully has learned something with his scandals and the selfie prime minister etc.
- The sweep of the west going all CPC was not surprising
- The 905 going (largely) all red was a bit of a surprise. I looked at the results riding by riding and it wasn't even close.

At the end of the day there is a big value difference in Canada as the west feels alienated. Also Ontario is left of centre with a far more diversified economy that is performing well so they were comfortable with the liberals. The west is pissed and this has to be figured out, I don't like the constant cow-towing to Quebec over the west and Alberta and Saskatchewan have a point and Trudeau has to figure this out. However why aren't those two provinces leaders in solar as they get a hell of a lot of sunshine, unlike Ontario which will be grey from now until May. Oil and Gas is not a good long term investment.

Saying that I think the CPC needs to realize that they need a leader from Ontario who is more in line with the former Progressive Conservatives and not the reform from the west. Lisa Raitt would have been a good choice or Peter McKay.
The election shows that many voters believe something needs to be done about climate change and income inequality and if even a peep about social conservative values is seen about a Tory leader it is cancerous in Canada. Thankfully we don't have a strong evangelical voting block that sides with the right regardless who the leader is. My advice to conservatives is to drop it in that arena as there is not going to be a resurgence in those values.
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trpmb6
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Re: Trudeau squeaks into a minority govt. with lowest popular vote in Canadian history

Wed Oct 23, 2019 12:56 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Comparing this election with the US presidential election is comparing apples and oranges. People weren't voting for a leader; they were voting for their local representative. A US equivalent scenario would be the House of Representatives election where the Speaker is the leader of the party with the most seats (or one that can gather 218 votes in their favor). That Democrats earned a larger voting percentage can be due to having states with higher concentrations of Democrats than Republicans, but people don't vote for the House to see if Pelosi or Ryan will be Speaker.



In general I agree with your post, but I disagree with this bit. When someone goes to vote in a parliamentarian style government they're not just thinking about the person they are voting for in their local election, they are also thinking about who that person is affiliated with - and what that means for the Prime Minister (or equivalent) position. I also disagree that people don't think about who will be speaker in the US. I guarantee there are folks out there who may hold their nose and vote for the D or R, when they may have otherwise stayed home, just to say they did their part in not letting Pelosi or Ryan (or whomever) into the speaker seat.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Trudeau squeaks into a minority govt. with lowest popular vote in Canadian history

Wed Oct 23, 2019 5:13 pm

Washington Post had an (OP?) ED pointing out that from a 'green' point of view 63% voted together, Liberal, parties to the left, and Quebecois (who support carbon tax). From this point of view Conservatives were soundly beaten.
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BerenErchamion
Posts: 235
Joined: Thu May 28, 2015 12:44 am

Re: Trudeau squeaks into a minority govt. with lowest popular vote in Canadian history

Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:36 pm

Yeah, it reminds of the "Brexit party won!" narrative post-UK EU Parliament elections this summer. Sure, they won more seats than any other single party, but...if you combine all the parties that oppose their single-issue platform, they outnumbered Brexit+Tories who share their position on that issue.
 
Dogman
Posts: 91
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:47 pm

Re: Trudeau squeaks into a minority govt. with lowest popular vote in Canadian history

Fri Oct 25, 2019 8:00 pm

BerenErchamion wrote:
Yeah, it reminds of the "Brexit party won!" narrative post-UK EU Parliament elections this summer. Sure, they won more seats than any other single party, but...if you combine all the parties that oppose their single-issue platform, they outnumbered Brexit+Tories who share their position on that issue.

What is Liberal's single-issue?
 
BerenErchamion
Posts: 235
Joined: Thu May 28, 2015 12:44 am

Re: Trudeau squeaks into a minority govt. with lowest popular vote in Canadian history

Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:06 pm

Dogman wrote:
BerenErchamion wrote:
Yeah, it reminds of the "Brexit party won!" narrative post-UK EU Parliament elections this summer. Sure, they won more seats than any other single party, but...if you combine all the parties that oppose their single-issue platform, they outnumbered Brexit+Tories who share their position on that issue.

What is Liberal's single-issue?


They're not...? I'm talking about the selective math. Analogy does not imply a precise identity between the things being compared.
 
Dogman
Posts: 91
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Re: Trudeau squeaks into a minority govt. with lowest popular vote in Canadian history

Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:14 pm

BerenErchamion wrote:

They're not...? I'm talking about the selective math. Analogy does not imply a precise identity between the things being compared.


That's a complicated answer to a simple question. You claimed that Liberals have a single-issue platform. I've asked you what issue is that. I am afraid that I cannot understand your answer.
 
BerenErchamion
Posts: 235
Joined: Thu May 28, 2015 12:44 am

Re: Trudeau squeaks into a minority govt. with lowest popular vote in Canadian history

Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:36 pm

Dogman wrote:
You claimed that Liberals have a single-issue platform.


Stop lying.
 
Dogman
Posts: 91
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:47 pm

Re: Trudeau squeaks into a minority govt. with lowest popular vote in Canadian history

Fri Oct 25, 2019 9:56 pm

I am not lying. I may had misunderstood you. But then, may be you can explain what did you mean by " their single-issue platform".

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