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zakuivcustom
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:46 pm

casinterest wrote:
The DOW is stabilizing a bit today. I think there will be a slight slowdown, but i think a lot of people have realized there is no running and hiding from this virus. It is out there and will continue to infect people.


The Asian market (i.e. Hang Seng in HK, Nikkei in Japan, even KOSPI in South Korea) rebound slightly also. The US stock market is bouncing back from a low, but is it just a "dead cat bounce"? Nobody knows.

Looking at daily fluctuation of the stock market only means so much anyway.
 
anshabhi
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:11 pm

I dont know but I think this is a rally due to short squeeze
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:02 pm

anshabhi wrote:
I dont know but I think this is a rally due to short squeeze


that doesn't even make sense.

This rally today happened because of a general consensus that all the central banks and vested parties are going to do something. Its speculation is all. Media heads say they think the Fed has to do something so the brokers get out ahead of it and start buying in anticipation of such. Then the Fed actually has to do something or the market will respond negatively. It's kind of a tail chase routine.

The way I see it, all the pundits were on TV saying they think the market will sell off because of fears about coronavirus. Well then what happens? People start selling. Then panic sets in and more selling. Then the pundits come on tv and act shocked, like wow I didn't see this coming! Meanwhile they're probably buying at the bottom knowing that this is just a short term issue and long term economics look positive.

Full disclosure: I have not sold any of my positions in the last two weeks.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:48 am

Expect the markets to be unstable and make random sharp downward turns until bad news in regards to the virus stops coming. The bad news translates to supply chain disruptions, employees unable to work, and consumers not buying (both because they aren't going out and because the supply chain disruptions are making items unavailable to buy). I'm 100% sure this is a recession trigger. That said, it's generally not wise to just sell when everyone else is. I never got the logic in that. But for the moment central banks can't do anything to change actual very physical losses in productivity that are happening. You can have all the money in the world but if there's nothing to buy with it, it's worthless.

Recessions are when economies break down and will build their selves back up in a way that is modernized to the current needs of society. If the current trigger is the virus, we will likely see supply chains that are less flimsy and easily disrupted in the aftermath. It's a good thing in the long term.
 
KFTG
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:56 am

Where did GalaxyFlyer go?
 
bgm
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:30 am

KFTG wrote:
Where did GalaxyFlyer go?


Probably at a Trump rally.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3610
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Dow tops 28000

Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:40 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
anshabhi wrote:
I dont know but I think this is a rally due to short squeeze


that doesn't even make sense.

This rally today happened because of a general consensus that all the central banks and vested parties are going to do something. Its speculation is all. Media heads say they think the Fed has to do something so the brokers get out ahead of it and start buying in anticipation of such. Then the Fed actually has to do something or the market will respond negatively. It's kind of a tail chase routine.

The way I see it, all the pundits were on TV saying they think the market will sell off because of fears about coronavirus. Well then what happens? People start selling. Then panic sets in and more selling. Then the pundits come on tv and act shocked, like wow I didn't see this coming! Meanwhile they're probably buying at the bottom knowing that this is just a short term issue and long term economics look positive.

Full disclosure: I have not sold any of my positions in the last two weeks.


Meanwhile, the fed did issue an emergency rate cut, and the market dives...

Expect a volatile market for the next 2 weeks at least.

P.S. Personally I would say this is a good time to buy for the long-run. I mean, if the nCoV outbreak really get worse you would have more than some stocks to worry about anyway, while if nCoV outbreak gets better, you basically laugh all the way to the bank.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:09 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
anshabhi wrote:
I dont know but I think this is a rally due to short squeeze


that doesn't even make sense.

This rally today happened because of a general consensus that all the central banks and vested parties are going to do something. Its speculation is all. Media heads say they think the Fed has to do something so the brokers get out ahead of it and start buying in anticipation of such. Then the Fed actually has to do something or the market will respond negatively. It's kind of a tail chase routine.

The way I see it, all the pundits were on TV saying they think the market will sell off because of fears about coronavirus. Well then what happens? People start selling. Then panic sets in and more selling. Then the pundits come on tv and act shocked, like wow I didn't see this coming! Meanwhile they're probably buying at the bottom knowing that this is just a short term issue and long term economics look positive.

Full disclosure: I have not sold any of my positions in the last two weeks.


Meanwhile, the fed did issue an emergency rate cut, and the market dives...

Expect a volatile market for the next 2 weeks at least.

P.S. Personally I would say this is a good time to buy for the long-run. I mean, if the nCoV outbreak really get worse you would have more than some stocks to worry about anyway, while if nCoV outbreak gets better, you basically laugh all the way to the bank.

That's what I did. If the market returns to normal, I'll get a quick return. If it crashes completely, well, I'll just put some more in then lol.

I'm still mad I didn't buy UA stock after that dumb Dr Dao incident. It plunged and it was obviously going to go back up, and it did (flame away, I'm in the minority I suppose, I have no sympathy for that guy)
 
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Tugger
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:37 pm

A rate cut out of the blue was a stupid thing to do. The Fed needed to communicate that is was considering this or something similar. All it has done now is spook the market into thinking things a worse than they thought (to need a 1/2 point cut).

Tugg
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:49 pm

Tugger wrote:
A rate cut out of the blue was a stupid thing to do. The Fed needed to communicate that is was considering this or something similar. All it has done now is spook the market into thinking things a worse than they thought (to need a 1/2 point cut).

Tugg


:banghead:

Damned if they do, damned if they don't. The reason we are seeing a slight dip today is because the rate cut was expected to happen. After the G7 emergency meeting we saw an uptick this morning. Then the announcement happened and you see it pull back slightly. This whole thing is frustrating to me.
 
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seb146
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:50 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
anshabhi wrote:
I dont know but I think this is a rally due to short squeeze


that doesn't even make sense.

This rally today happened because of a general consensus that all the central banks and vested parties are going to do something. Its speculation is all. Media heads say they think the Fed has to do something so the brokers get out ahead of it and start buying in anticipation of such. Then the Fed actually has to do something or the market will respond negatively. It's kind of a tail chase routine.

The way I see it, all the pundits were on TV saying they think the market will sell off because of fears about coronavirus. Well then what happens? People start selling. Then panic sets in and more selling. Then the pundits come on tv and act shocked, like wow I didn't see this coming! Meanwhile they're probably buying at the bottom knowing that this is just a short term issue and long term economics look positive.

Full disclosure: I have not sold any of my positions in the last two weeks.


The first plunge, the media and pundits just assumed it was fears over Corona virus. The following plunge, they all agreed. I have been saying for a while, what if this is a market correction? That the markets have been too much for too long and this plunge is a sign of a bigger crash completely unrelated to Corona?
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:31 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
A rate cut out of the blue was a stupid thing to do. The Fed needed to communicate that is was considering this or something similar. All it has done now is spook the market into thinking things a worse than they thought (to need a 1/2 point cut).

Tugg


:banghead:

Damned if they do, damned if they don't. The reason we are seeing a slight dip today is because the rate cut was expected to happen. After the G7 emergency meeting we saw an uptick this morning. Then the announcement happened and you see it pull back slightly. This whole thing is frustrating to me.

Two things to consider here:
1. I seem to recall a certain Twitterer in Chief complaining about low rates a while ago so a rate cut only goes against everything he was concerned with. Not only that, but IF the economy is the strongest it's ever been, there's no need to cut rates.
2. By cutting rates, the Fed just wasted ammo on something it still has no evidence to have acted on. Cutting the rate to 1.25% only gives the Fed about more 5 cuts to attempt to stimulate the economy IF the effects of the Coronavirus are worse than expected (the Fed has never entered negative rates and such a move would be unprecedented in the US). Yes, the cut was expected to happen, but not at an emergency meeting and likely not 0.5%. So I agree with Tugger in that if you needed to cut 0.5%, then
-the economy is not in the best shape
-you're expecting worse things to come.

Oh, and the uptick actually came AFTER the rate cut. The markets in the US opened in the red BECAUSE nothing encouraging came out of the G7 meeting. News of the rate cut put the market briefly in the green and, as I write this, the Dow is down over 700 points.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:35 pm

seb146 wrote:
The first plunge, the media and pundits just assumed it was fears over Corona virus. The following plunge, they all agreed. I have been saying for a while, what if this is a market correction? That the markets have been too much for too long and this plunge is a sign of a bigger crash completely unrelated to Corona?

A correction usually catches itself and attempts to rally back. But the fact that today we're close to losing half of yesterday's rally means the markets are concerned. Economic activity (supply chain, logistics, manufacturing, etc.) will have been shown to have slowed down everywhere. If companies are already revising their earnings for the quarter and perhaps the year, and world organizations are revising GDP expectations, then you know this is a big impact. Just how big will depends on how long it goes on.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:52 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
A rate cut out of the blue was a stupid thing to do. The Fed needed to communicate that is was considering this or something similar. All it has done now is spook the market into thinking things a worse than they thought (to need a 1/2 point cut).

Tugg


:banghead:

Damned if they do, damned if they don't. The reason we are seeing a slight dip today is because the rate cut was expected to happen. After the G7 emergency meeting we saw an uptick this morning. Then the announcement happened and you see it pull back slightly. This whole thing is frustrating to me.

I don't think it's "Damned if they do, damned if they don't.". I really think it is just communication, simple as that. The Fed didn't need to act IMMEDIATELY, it needed to communicate that it was, as it stated previously, keeping an eye on the situation and would act "soon" to support the market and the resultant volatility. The market would react to that statement alone, then you ease things, maybe an 1/8 or 1/4 point. Nice small, simple, supportive. The market eats it up, is nourished and calmed and moves on. And you still have move relief available if called for.

A half point is a pretty big move for the Fed. And the Market asks "Why" and then thinks "They really can't do anything more!"

Tugg
Last edited by Tugger on Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:11 pm

Explained that way I tend to agree.

I think investors just needed a reason to take profits. Now we're going to see the market slowly climb back up as people come to realize this is not a long term issue and see the current prices as a buy opportunity.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:25 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Explained that way I tend to agree.

I think investors just needed a reason to take profits. Now we're going to see the market slowly climb back up as people come to realize this is not a long term issue and see the current prices as a buy opportunity.

Oh yes, I think the market is using the coronavirus as an excuse for taking profits. It is the biggest money elements taking profits, securing their positions, and reapportioning their portfolios after what we all thought/knew was “market over-exuberance”. Everyone knew the market run couldn’t go on forever, the question was when things might change and everyone wanted to ride it as high as it could go before moving.

And now they are moving. Fast.

Tugg
 
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casinterest
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:59 pm

Tugger wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Explained that way I tend to agree.

I think investors just needed a reason to take profits. Now we're going to see the market slowly climb back up as people come to realize this is not a long term issue and see the current prices as a buy opportunity.

Oh yes, I think the market is using the coronavirus as an excuse for taking profits. It is the biggest money elements taking profits, securing their positions, and reapportioning their portfolios after what we all thought/knew was “market over-exuberance”. Everyone knew the market run couldn’t go on forever, the question was when things might change and everyone wanted to ride it as high as it could go before moving.

And now they are moving. Fast.

Tugg


I worry the fed over cut. In the short term, the stock market is going to waver, but in the long run, housing is going to go nuts with the refinance and lower rates. This is going to set up a crazy real estate investment bubble over times.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:16 pm

casinterest wrote:
I worry the fed over cut. In the short term, the stock market is going to waver, but in the long run, housing is going to go nuts with the refinance and lower rates. This is going to set up a crazy real estate investment bubble over times.


I would say the other worry is that if and when a REAL downturn (not the current "blip" due to nCoV...the downward trend right now I would say is more comparable to the immediate aftermath of 9/11, with the economy more or less recovered after 3 months) occur, the fed simply can't go back to the "cut rate to stimulate market" trick as there would be nothing left to cut. It doesn't help that the whole stock market right now is prop up by a bubble due to artificially low rate despite a supposedly "good" economy.

Anyway, DJIA ends up ~780 down today (~2.96%), erasing 2/3 of the gain yesterday.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:54 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
casinterest wrote:
I worry the fed over cut. In the short term, the stock market is going to waver, but in the long run, housing is going to go nuts with the refinance and lower rates. This is going to set up a crazy real estate investment bubble over times.


I would say the other worry is that if and when a REAL downturn (not the current "blip" due to nCoV...the downward trend right now I would say is more comparable to the immediate aftermath of 9/11, with the economy more or less recovered after 3 months) occur, the fed simply can't go back to the "cut rate to stimulate market" trick as there would be nothing left to cut. It doesn't help that the whole stock market right now is prop up by a bubble due to artificially low rate despite a supposedly "good" economy.

Anyway, DJIA ends up ~780 down today (~2.96%), erasing 2/3 of the gain yesterday.


Exactly. But then I was listening to an analyst on CNBC on the way home today and he was saying this rate cut was long needed given the premature rate increase last year! We have no where to go! I'm quite frustrated in the response happening in the market right now. But as Jakob Fugger suggested, buy when others are fearful.
 
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seb146
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:48 am

trpmb6 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
casinterest wrote:
I worry the fed over cut. In the short term, the stock market is going to waver, but in the long run, housing is going to go nuts with the refinance and lower rates. This is going to set up a crazy real estate investment bubble over times.


I would say the other worry is that if and when a REAL downturn (not the current "blip" due to nCoV...the downward trend right now I would say is more comparable to the immediate aftermath of 9/11, with the economy more or less recovered after 3 months) occur, the fed simply can't go back to the "cut rate to stimulate market" trick as there would be nothing left to cut. It doesn't help that the whole stock market right now is prop up by a bubble due to artificially low rate despite a supposedly "good" economy.

Anyway, DJIA ends up ~780 down today (~2.96%), erasing 2/3 of the gain yesterday.


Exactly. But then I was listening to an analyst on CNBC on the way home today and he was saying this rate cut was long needed given the premature rate increase last year! We have no where to go! I'm quite frustrated in the response happening in the market right now. But as Jakob Fugger suggested, buy when others are fearful.


If the Republican administration has made the economy so strong, they can withstand a half point or even full point rate increases by the fed. If the Republican administration is so confident in the American work force (where are the REAL unemployment numbers, BTW??? Remember that line when Obama was president?) they can withstand and applaud any and all Fed rate increases, right?
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:52 am

seb146 wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:

I would say the other worry is that if and when a REAL downturn (not the current "blip" due to nCoV...the downward trend right now I would say is more comparable to the immediate aftermath of 9/11, with the economy more or less recovered after 3 months) occur, the fed simply can't go back to the "cut rate to stimulate market" trick as there would be nothing left to cut. It doesn't help that the whole stock market right now is prop up by a bubble due to artificially low rate despite a supposedly "good" economy.

Anyway, DJIA ends up ~780 down today (~2.96%), erasing 2/3 of the gain yesterday.


Exactly. But then I was listening to an analyst on CNBC on the way home today and he was saying this rate cut was long needed given the premature rate increase last year! We have no where to go! I'm quite frustrated in the response happening in the market right now. But as Jakob Fugger suggested, buy when others are fearful.


If the Republican administration has made the economy so strong, they can withstand a half point or even full point rate increases by the fed. If the Republican administration is so confident in the American work force (where are the REAL unemployment numbers, BTW??? Remember that line when Obama was president?) they can withstand and applaud any and all Fed rate increases, right?


Seb stop. You live on the west coast. This virus has no politics. This is of course a serious virus but it will run its course and eventually be nothing more than a blip. It is tragic that people will lose their lives but this thing is global and no longer contained. Nor is it containable with its contagiousness and the west's lack of authoritarian rule to prevent the spread.
 
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seb146
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:02 am

trpmb6 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:

Exactly. But then I was listening to an analyst on CNBC on the way home today and he was saying this rate cut was long needed given the premature rate increase last year! We have no where to go! I'm quite frustrated in the response happening in the market right now. But as Jakob Fugger suggested, buy when others are fearful.


If the Republican administration has made the economy so strong, they can withstand a half point or even full point rate increases by the fed. If the Republican administration is so confident in the American work force (where are the REAL unemployment numbers, BTW??? Remember that line when Obama was president?) they can withstand and applaud any and all Fed rate increases, right?


Seb stop. You live on the west coast. This virus has no politics. This is of course a serious virus but it will run its course and eventually be nothing more than a blip. It is tragic that people will lose their lives but this thing is global and no longer contained. Nor is it containable with its contagiousness and the west's lack of authoritarian rule to prevent the spread.


It got political when the Republican administration politicized it. The gloves are off. All bets are off. This Republican administration keeps saying they are so much better than Obama. The FACTS prove otherwise. The MAGA fan base don't care about facts, of course.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... rus-119480
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... crats-hoax
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... rmongering

Also, the first death from Coronavirus was surely a woman

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-tal ... oman-its-a

or not.....
 
KFTG
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:02 am

Hi GalaxyFlyer!
 
tommy1808
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:16 am

Tugger wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
A rate cut out of the blue was a stupid thing to do. The Fed needed to communicate that is was considering this or something similar. All it has done now is spook the market into thinking things a worse than they thought (to need a 1/2 point cut).

Tugg


:banghead:

Damned if they do, damned if they don't. The reason we are seeing a slight dip today is because the rate cut was expected to happen. After the G7 emergency meeting we saw an uptick this morning. Then the announcement happened and you see it pull back slightly. This whole thing is frustrating to me.

I don't think it's "Damned if they do, damned if they don't.". I really think it is just communication, simple as that. The Fed didn't need to act IMMEDIATELY, it needed to communicate that it was, as it stated previously, keeping an eye on the situation and would act "soon" to support the market and the resultant volatility. The market would react to that statement alone, then you ease things, maybe an 1/8 or 1/4 point. Nice small, simple, supportive. The market eats it up, is nourished and calmed and moves on. And you still have move relief available if called for.

A half point is a pretty big move for the Fed. And the Market asks "Why" and then thinks "They really can't do anything more!"

Tugg


There is also the itzy bitzy bit of this cool down being driven by interruptions in the supply chain..... so more money is of limited value now, unless you are a casino player bankster type there isn´t much you can invest in and actually get at the moment.

Markets are all about confidence. Surprisingly Tom Clancy wrote something pretty good about it in "Debt of Honor" ........ crisis are not people losing money, they are about people not spending it. Conventional logic is: give people money to spend. Of course that requires stuff for them to spend it on.

Try to buy machines for a new production line right now. Good luck (i know, we are outfitting a new production building right now).

best regards
Thomas
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:28 am

seb146 wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
seb146 wrote:

If the Republican administration has made the economy so strong, they can withstand a half point or even full point rate increases by the fed. If the Republican administration is so confident in the American work force (where are the REAL unemployment numbers, BTW??? Remember that line when Obama was president?) they can withstand and applaud any and all Fed rate increases, right?


Seb stop. You live on the west coast. This virus has no politics. This is of course a serious virus but it will run its course and eventually be nothing more than a blip. It is tragic that people will lose their lives but this thing is global and no longer contained. Nor is it containable with its contagiousness and the west's lack of authoritarian rule to prevent the spread.


It got political when the Republican administration politicized it. The gloves are off. All bets are off. This Republican administration keeps saying they are so much better than Obama. The FACTS prove otherwise. The MAGA fan base don't care about facts, of course.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... rus-119480
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... crats-hoax
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... rmongering

Also, the first death from Coronavirus was surely a woman

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-tal ... oman-its-a

or not.....


Do observe that when it comes to the coronavirus and it's economic consequences it's been republicans in Congress who have been some of the admin's harshest critics. On many more trivial issues the admin will easily make the congressional GOP fall in line, on an issue this serious they take the reigns back and call the shots.

Congress is working together in a bipartisan matter. They pushed aside politics like adults. Criticize the President all you want because I've been disgusted too, but when it comes to an absolute crisis it's just a bad time to go so partisan with average Americans you blow apart our unity for no good reason.

The president will look foolish on his own as this escalates. We all heard the words he said.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:54 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
casinterest wrote:
I worry the fed over cut. In the short term, the stock market is going to waver, but in the long run, housing is going to go nuts with the refinance and lower rates. This is going to set up a crazy real estate investment bubble over times.


I would say the other worry is that if and when a REAL downturn (not the current "blip" due to nCoV...the downward trend right now I would say is more comparable to the immediate aftermath of 9/11, with the economy more or less recovered after 3 months) occur, the fed simply can't go back to the "cut rate to stimulate market" trick as there would be nothing left to cut. It doesn't help that the whole stock market right now is prop up by a bubble due to artificially low rate despite a supposedly "good" economy.

Anyway, DJIA ends up ~780 down today (~2.96%), erasing 2/3 of the gain yesterday.


Exactly. But then I was listening to an analyst on CNBC on the way home today and he was saying this rate cut was long needed given the premature rate increase last year! We have no where to go! I'm quite frustrated in the response happening in the market right now. But as Jakob Fugger suggested, buy when others are fearful.



The increases were not premature last year. They were right on target with what should have been a strong economy. Until Trump and the GOP screwed it all up with Tariffs, Then low and behold there is an actual medical natural disaster and where is the cookie jar? Oh that's right, all the wealthy took the cookies.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:35 pm

The roller coaster continues...

Mar 2 - +1293.96 (5.09%) - Largest gain in terms of absolute point in DJIA history
Mar 3 - -785.91 (-2.94%)
Mar 4 - +1173.45 (4.53%) - 2nd largest gain in terms of absolute point in DJIA history
Mar 5 - -969.58 (-3.58%) - 5th largest drop in terms of absolute point in DJIA history (With #1 and #4, along with #6, happening last week)

DJIA is still up ~700 points this week, but far from recovering from the ~4000 points drop last week.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:41 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
DJIA is still up ~700 points this week, but far from recovering from the ~4000 points drop last week.

Only people "winning" are the short sellers. Otherwise, quite the roller coaster indeed.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:08 pm

I'm thinking of getting UA stock. They were holding $80-90ish for the past year, now they're down to $51.50ish. Of course UA will bounce back from this... Right??

AA stock is down a good amount but I am not as optimistic with them. DL and WN are very strong but their stock didn't fall as much... Thinking UA has the most to gain
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:26 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
I'm thinking of getting UA stock. They were holding $80-90ish for the past year, now they're down to $51.50ish. Of course UA will bounce back from this... Right??

AA stock is down a good amount but I am not as optimistic with them. DL and WN are very strong but their stock didn't fall as much... Thinking UA has the most to gain


It would bounce back one way or another IMHO. Even if UA stock only trickle back up to $70 or so, you can still make a decent profit. Well, as long as you have money that you can set aside for ~6 months, that is...
=========================================================================
Meanwhile, Dow is set to open ~700 points down today. In another word, between the 2 1000+ points gain this week, we're back to where we started on Monday.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:34 pm

Not sure if this is mere coincidence, but the current crash levels (of the S&P500) are at almost an exact 10x that of the 1987 crash levels.
In 1987, the high was at 339. The high in 2020 was 3,394. The first low in 1987 was at 286. A temporally low set several days ago was at 2,856.
If this pattern holds true, I expect the major (final) low to be set at 10 x 181 = 1,810.
 
seat64k
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:47 am

DeltaMD90 wrote:
I'm thinking of getting UA stock. They were holding $80-90ish for the past year, now they're down to $51.50ish. Of course UA will bounce back from this... Right??


Maybe, just like FlyBe :eek:

einsteinboricua wrote:
Only people "winning" are the short sellers. Otherwise, quite the roller coaster indeed.


Meanwhile, I just dropped my monthly allocation into a few index funds. I'll check how it did in 5 years.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:07 pm

Quite the rollercoaster expected for today.

DJIA futures down 1200 and only because a trigger was activated, preventing futures from showing a steeper decline. Upon the opening bell, analyst expect the index to blow past -1200, to as much as -1600 (maybe more).

Something no one has been talking about here: the 10yr yield and how it's been dropping like a rock. Low for today has been in the order of 0.32%, and, depending on how today goes, it may breach past the 0.20%. Yields on shorter treasuries are expected to enter negative territory this month, especially if the Fed cuts rate at their regular meeting next week.
 
seat64k
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:38 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Something no one has been talking about here: the 10yr yield and how it's been dropping like a rock. Low for today has been in the order of 0.32%, and, depending on how today goes, it may breach past the 0.20%. Yields on shorter treasuries are expected to enter negative territory this month, especially if the Fed cuts rate at their regular meeting next week.


This has been bothering me for a while now. In my (admittedly lay) understanding, equities go up when there's confidence, and people move money out of bonds and into equities (an I guess derivatives), thus bonds get cheaper. Then bad things happen, thing get uncertain, people start selling their stocks and moving money into (safer) bonds. So equties go down, bonds go up. Looking over indexes, this seems to be the trend.

But now (at least until a few weeks ago) we have equities shooting for the moon, and bonds shooting up steadily. I'm worried that too many people are trying to get a piece of the FAANG and similar action, driving up those stocks well beyond their realistic value, thereby creating more demand for them. In other words, creating a bubble. Maybe coronavisurs is what ultimately bursts it?
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:38 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Quite the rollercoaster expected for today.

DJIA futures down 1200 and only because a trigger was activated, preventing futures from showing a steeper decline. Upon the opening bell, analyst expect the index to blow past -1200, to as much as -1600 (maybe more).

Something no one has been talking about here: the 10yr yield and how it's been dropping like a rock. Low for today has been in the order of 0.32%, and, depending on how today goes, it may breach past the 0.20%. Yields on shorter treasuries are expected to enter negative territory this month, especially if the Fed cuts rate at their regular meeting next week.


All yields are below 1.0% now, including the 30 year. I do suspect we're in a perfect storm right now. But investors are too fearful to dip back into the market. I suspect everyone is sitting on the sides just itching to get back in and waiting for the one piece of positive news to do so.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:54 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
Quite the rollercoaster expected for today.

DJIA futures down 1200 and only because a trigger was activated, preventing futures from showing a steeper decline. Upon the opening bell, analyst expect the index to blow past -1200, to as much as -1600 (maybe more).

Something no one has been talking about here: the 10yr yield and how it's been dropping like a rock. Low for today has been in the order of 0.32%, and, depending on how today goes, it may breach past the 0.20%. Yields on shorter treasuries are expected to enter negative territory this month, especially if the Fed cuts rate at their regular meeting next week.


All yields are below 1.0% now, including the 30 year. I do suspect we're in a perfect storm right now. But investors are too fearful to dip back into the market. I suspect everyone is sitting on the sides just itching to get back in and waiting for the one piece of positive news to do so.


It will be awhile for that. In the meantime it is time to balance the portfolios, and keep buying a lower prices. In 5-10 years it won't matter.

However for those on fixed incomes and retirement pay, I am sure that they are freaking out.
 
jetwet1
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:59 pm

May have a wait for the positive news, I'm sitting this one out, I just don't see a bottom right now, I may lose money from being late to any rebound, but this is going to be ugly.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:18 pm

I'm thinking about selling my current 401k funds and go to a bond index fund. Current contributions can still remain where they are so that I buy more and more of the funds at a lower price. I'm gonna wait to see if the DJIA drops below 23000 before I sell. That would seal the losses for 2020 and 2019 but allow me to lock the gains for 2018.
 
KFLLCFII
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:18 pm

jetwet1 wrote:
May have a wait for the positive news, I'm sitting this one out, I just don't see a bottom right now, I may lose money from being late to any rebound, but this is going to be ugly.

No plausible containment AND reverse of the virus, no bottom.
 
anshabhi
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:22 pm

What's the minimum price of crude that shale industry needs to survive?

Here in India, indexes and major stocks have entirely shed their gains over 2 years and are at exactly their March 2018 prices
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:34 pm

anshabhi wrote:
What's the minimum price of crude that shale industry needs to survive?

It was assumed that shale needed at least $50+ to be viable, but when Saudi led the oil surplus of 2014-2016 (intending to drive out shale), it was shown that shale oil can be viable at $30+ (though not all producers were able to survive). I would think that since then, producers would have innovated enough so that $30/bbl can be weathered longer but we'll see. One thing is certain: the higher the price of oil, the more economic shale oil becomes, so unless oil drops to $20 or less, shale is here to stay.
 
Derico
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:19 pm

KFLLCFII wrote:
jetwet1 wrote:
May have a wait for the positive news, I'm sitting this one out, I just don't see a bottom right now, I may lose money from being late to any rebound, but this is going to be ugly.

No plausible containment AND reverse of the virus, no bottom.


Not necessarily, the bottom will also happen when people just get used to the "new normal", when they lose the fear of this illness, which will inevitably happen because the mortality rate is terrible from a human life point of view, but not civilization-breaking quite honestly. So eventually one day everyone will wake up and realize life does and can go on, and pretty normally even if we have another virus around among thousands of others than can kill us, and then the bottom will have arrived. That of course, unless some other economic or political shoe drops to prevent it.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:48 pm

So this is my personal opinion.

I believe we've hit the bottom. We had a market which had priced in Covid19. Then we had a perfect storm of Saudi vs Russia oil pricing hit on top of treasury yields dipping below all time lows.

Then you look at a company like Boeing which was already down due to the max and you've got the perfect opportunity of good profit making over the next 52 weeks. (By the way they also got hit today because of the FAA rejection on their wiring.)

I've bought back into Boeing. It's just too cheap not to.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:02 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
So this is my personal opinion.

I believe we've hit the bottom. We had a market which had priced in Covid19. Then we had a perfect storm of Saudi vs Russia oil pricing hit on top of treasury yields dipping below all time lows.

Then you look at a company like Boeing which was already down due to the max and you've got the perfect opportunity of good profit making over the next 52 weeks. (By the way they also got hit today because of the FAA rejection on their wiring.)

I've bought back into Boeing. It's just too cheap not to.


I think it is still too early.

I think more of a bottom is coming. However buying now is still going to be cheap in the long run.


I just had to cancel a business trip today. The Airlines are going to get hammered, but Business in general is going to get hammered.
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:08 pm

Where did the OP go?
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:14 pm

Love it how the Trump haters need to rub in the tanking of the markets. I hope they stick around once this rebounds, in any case if anything can be deduced by this, this was to be expected

this was written by the end of January:

Market reactions to past virus scares show stocks may have more to lose

Published Tue, Jan 28 202012:38 PM ESTUpdated Tue, Jan 28 20202:53 PM EST


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/market- ... -lose.html
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2827
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:14 pm

Way too early to buy. Wait for S&P500 to drop below 2,000.
 
KFLLCFII
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:16 pm

Derico wrote:
KFLLCFII wrote:
jetwet1 wrote:
May have a wait for the positive news, I'm sitting this one out, I just don't see a bottom right now, I may lose money from being late to any rebound, but this is going to be ugly.

No plausible containment AND reverse of the virus, no bottom.


Not necessarily, the bottom will also happen when people just get used to the "new normal", when they lose the fear of this illness, which will inevitably happen because the mortality rate is terrible from a human life point of view, but not civilization-breaking quite honestly. So eventually one day everyone will wake up and realize life does and can go on, and pretty normally even if we have another virus around among thousands of others than can kill us, and then the bottom will have arrived. That of course, unless some other economic or political shoe drops to prevent it.


It's not the human aspect that caused me to form my opinion, it's the cascading (precautionary) shut-down of worldwide commerce which has no plausible reason not to believe it's still only in an initial stage (let alone industries coming to a "realization" that commerce can restart/continue in a "new normal" with the illness floating around, which has no plausible reason to believe we're even remotely close to such an industrial pivot point).

If worldwide commerce is a ship sailing at high speed across the North Atlantic, the iceberg that just glancingly cut a hole into its hull is still visible as it drifts away from the stern.
 
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einsteinboricua
Posts: 8706
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:25 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
I believe we've hit the bottom. We had a market which had priced in Covid19. Then we had a perfect storm of Saudi vs Russia oil pricing hit on top of treasury yields dipping below all time lows.

Oh far from it. The Saudi-Russian oil feud looks to last until early summer. In the meantime, if Q1 readings next month show a slowdown (or worse, a contraction), the floor is still far below this level. Many more things to consider:
-further economic impacts of Covid-19 (including air travel, tourism, and supply chain)
-ammunition the Fed still has at their disposal, especially if they cut rates as expected next week
-impact of low oil prices on oil/gas companies (yes, we get relief at the pump, but extractors in TX and ND probably won't be thrilled and their economies will be affected)

The first clue we'll have is the job numbers released in April. That should give us a bit of insight as to how bad covid-19 has affected companies.
 
bgm
Posts: 2535
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Re: Dow tops 28000

Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:25 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Love it how the Trump haters need to rub in the tanking of the markets. I hope they stick around once this rebounds, in any case if anything can be deduced by this, this was to be expected

this was written by the end of January:

Market reactions to past virus scares show stocks may have more to lose

Published Tue, Jan 28 202012:38 PM ESTUpdated Tue, Jan 28 20202:53 PM EST


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/market- ... -lose.html


You mean stick around like the OP who has gone AWOL? :rotfl:
Interesting that we’re hearing crickets from GalaxyFlyer who was more than happy to give Trump credit when this thread was started, but seems to have scuttled off and hidden when the sh*t hits the fan.

You can’t have it both ways.

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