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LAX772LR
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Southern states swinging Democrat(ic) in the era of Trump

Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:44 am

Basically, a reversal of the Midwest during the Obama years.

Blood-red Louisiana tonight reelected a Democrat as governor, first time that's happened in a longggg time.

Add to that what just happened in Kentucky, and Democrats coming in striking range in various races Mississippi and Georgia, which they hadn't in a longgggg time.

Interesting to see the turnaround.
 
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stl07
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Re: Southern states swinging Democrat(ic) in the era of Trump

Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:01 am

Wasn't Lousiana already under D leadership for their governor? I guess this election proves it wasn't just a fluke last time. It also proves that Trump doesn't always help, as the Trump rally in the state was said to create a surge in votes in democratic cities like NOLA and Baton Rouge.
 
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stl07
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Re: Southern states swinging Democrat(ic) in the era of Trump

Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:09 am

"But it was Edwards who prevailed in the runoff, thanks to big margins and high turnout in and around the cities of New Orleans and Baton Rouge"
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/1 ... one-071288

This is why many times Dems have asked not to have Obama or another big-name figure to come in to aid them, you piss off the other side and get them to vote in an election they didn't care about, but I guess the GOP could always point to Missouri where Clare was beloved and winning every poll but trump was able to hold a large last-minute rally and create a surge of votes to put Hawley over the finish line
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Southern states swinging Democrat(ic) in the era of Trump

Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:23 am

stl07 wrote:
Wasn't Lousiana already under D leadership for their governor?

Indeed.... mostly thought due to the last Republican governor (Bobby Jindal) absolutely wrecking state coffers, then forsaking it completely in a year-long run for President where he never got above 2%. It got so bad that even far-Right Republicans were ripping him as the "absentee governor," when he at one point, spent nearly 8 weeks in Iowa, out of a 4mo period, while he was still supposed to be doing the business of Louisiana.

What makes this interesting, is that it's been a long time since a Democrat was able to defend the governorship here. Though wasn't always like that. Heck, Democrat Bill Clinton won Louisiana during the Presidential general election, in both 1992 and 1996. That seems unfathomable now, but wasn't THAT long ago.
 
ltbewr
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Re: Southern states swinging Democrat(ic) in the era of Trump

Sun Nov 17, 2019 12:29 pm

Edwards is really a DINO (Democrat In Name Only). For example he signed bills restricting access to abortion, supported fiscal restrain on spending and taxes to clean up a mess left by a Republican predecessor. Generally he is more like a right of center Republican than a coastal Democrat. He also got the votes of major cities, likely with large percentages of government employees and non-Whites who trend to Democrats there. He got a better cross section of votes in the end. Trump's support of the Republican candidate may have encouraged more Democrat leaning voters to turn in protest, but likely the candidate was going up against an incumbent.
 
afcjets
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Re: Southern states swinging Democrat(ic) in the era of Trump

Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:50 pm

The impeachment seems to be working at driving his poll numbers down for now. I think it is going to backfire though, especially when the IG report and Barr and Durham investigations are released.
 
MaverickM11
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Re: Southern states swinging Democrat(ic) in the era of Trump

Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:11 pm

Republicans have been all but wiped out from most Texas major cities and suburbs too.

afcjets wrote:
The impeachment seems to be working at driving his poll numbers down for now. I think it is going to backfire though, especially when the IG report and Barr and Durham investigations are released.

I think that is going to be a) like the HRC finding that came out a month ago--ie bupkis and b) even shrubberies recognize Barr is a crook's henchman that's been covering up Republican misdeeds for generations. It'll have a teensy iota of untoward behavior to throw some red meat at the poorly educated Trump loves, but otherwise come up empty handed as well. Or he'll outright lie like his "summary" of the Mueller report to muddy the waters and waddle off onto the next cover up for Twitler.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Southern states swinging Democrat(ic) in the era of Trump

Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:39 pm

Don't think this is the states swinging to the Democrats as much as:
1. A flawed R candidate against a better known D challenger.
2. A popular D incumbent against unknown R challenger.
3. Democrats that are not toeing the party line.

Let's start with Kentucky. Matt Bevin barely squeaked a win in 2015 and his Trumpian style of governing didn't sit well with many Kentuckians. He was already an unpopular candidate to begin with after defying party leaders to take on McConnell in 2014. His nail in the coffin was the teachers' strike which mobilized many folks, including people who had voted for him. Republicans are attempting to wave this off by saying that KY has more Democrats than Republicans registered, which is true, but for a state that (like WV) is a reliable GOP state and is dominated at all levels by them, this is a weak excuse.

Moving on to Louisiana, the stars aligned for JBE when he ran against Vitter in 2015. Vitter was damaged goods when his scandal came back to life. JBE capitalized on it by also touting his military credentials and how he's a pro-life, pro-gun Democrat. It didn't help Vitter that he was like McCain: forced to face the ire of voters fed up with how the GOP had run the state (deficits, education not fully funded, etc). JBE winning in 2015 was a lucky alignment. His tenure in LA has been favorable with a respectable 52% approval rating in the state. His second alignment came in this election, when his eventual challenger Rispone, in an effort to prove how loyal he was to Trump, aired misleading ads against Abrahams, who was at the time, the leading R candidate. The ads attempted to depict Abrahams as a Pelosi supporter (because, shockingly, some bills passed with unanimous support which meant he voted the same way Pelosi did, which means he's clearly a Pelosi supporter). Results from the election showed that people in Abrahams district harbored resent against Rispone and THAT made all the difference in the election. I will say, I find it very disappointing that for a popular governor for whom many Louisianans approve of, he only obtained a small margin of victory. Just goes to show that it doesn't matter what someone does, if they don't have the right letter at the end of their name, they're worthless.

Finally, in Mississippi, AG Hood was Democrats' best shot at the governorship. Hood held the office of AG for over 16 years, but he's done so by remaining true to his Southern views (conservative, prolife, progun) and not toeing the national party line. Analysts believe that the African American coalition that came out in droves for Espy back in 2018 failed to show up which made the difference in handing Reeves his victory. Of course, the red hue of the state was a big challenge to overcome regardless, but Hood proved that the right kind of Democrat CAN come close to victory (Doug Jones showed that in AL as well).

Again: this isn't really southern states turning blue but rather Democrats nominating the right candidate with unique circumstances surrounding each race.

Some will claim that it's a vote against Trump (which I can agree with to an extent), and considering Trump staked his reputation (or whatever he has left) with KY and LA, it does not bode well for him. At the end of the day, the GOP attempted to nationalize the elections (notice that the DNC barely made a move) and failed because many of the voters here were concerned about local issues and passing judgement over the incumbents.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Southern states swinging Democrat(ic) in the era of Trump

Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:50 pm

afcjets wrote:
The impeachment seems to be working at driving his poll numbers down for now. I think it is going to backfire though, especially when the IG report and Barr and Durham investigations are released.


Except that...umm...those investigations are completely unrelated to the current inquiry. If there are a few partisans in the FBI who violated their federal work rules in 2016, they’ll be fired. That doesn’t change what continues to be uncovered.
 
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seb146
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Re: Southern states swinging Democrat(ic) in the era of Trump

Sun Nov 17, 2019 7:10 pm

ltbewr wrote:
Edwards is really a DINO (Democrat In Name Only). For example he signed bills restricting access to abortion, supported fiscal restrain on spending and taxes to clean up a mess left by a Republican predecessor. Generally he is more like a right of center Republican than a coastal Democrat. He also got the votes of major cities, likely with large percentages of government employees and non-Whites who trend to Democrats there. He got a better cross section of votes in the end. Trump's support of the Republican candidate may have encouraged more Democrat leaning voters to turn in protest, but likely the candidate was going up against an incumbent.


Democrats in Louisiana are completely different than Democrats in, say, Michigan. Schwartzenegger in California was called RINO. He is a coastal Republican. Even though he put the state deep in debt, Democrats, as they do, fixed the economy of California and Democrats have shown a surplus there the past few years. It looks like, if I am reading this correctly, Edwards in Louisiana has helped fix the financial mess left by a Republican.

The bottom line is: every time the occupant of the White House shows up to rally support for a candidate, that candidate loses. I wonder how long it will take for Republicans to figure this out and push him away?
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Southern states swinging Democrat(ic) in the era of Trump

Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:06 am

seb146 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
Edwards is really a DINO (Democrat In Name Only). For example he signed bills restricting access to abortion, supported fiscal restrain on spending and taxes to clean up a mess left by a Republican predecessor. Generally he is more like a right of center Republican than a coastal Democrat. He also got the votes of major cities, likely with large percentages of government employees and non-Whites who trend to Democrats there. He got a better cross section of votes in the end. Trump's support of the Republican candidate may have encouraged more Democrat leaning voters to turn in protest, but likely the candidate was going up against an incumbent.


Democrats in Louisiana are completely different than Democrats in, say, Michigan. Schwartzenegger in California was called RINO. He is a coastal Republican. Even though he put the state deep in debt, Democrats, as they do, fixed the economy of California and Democrats have shown a surplus there the past few years. It looks like, if I am reading this correctly, Edwards in Louisiana has helped fix the financial mess left by a Republican.

The bottom line is: every time the occupant of the White House shows up to rally support for a candidate, that candidate loses. I wonder how long it will take for Republicans to figure this out and push him away?



I do not have much hope of that happening, seeing the blind lead the blind in the Republican Party, but what a glorious day that would be for them to wake up and realize what and who they are supporting while purporting to be Patriots. You know the kind that puts Country before Party.
 
stratclub
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Re: Southern states swinging Democrat(ic) in the era of Trump

Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:10 am

Aaron747 wrote:
afcjets wrote:
The impeachment seems to be working at driving his poll numbers down for now. I think it is going to backfire though, especially when the IG report and Barr and Durham investigations are released.


Except that...umm...those investigations are completely unrelated to the current inquiry. If there are a few partisans in the FBI who violated their federal work rules in 2016, they’ll be fired. That doesn’t change what continues to be uncovered.

The IG Criminal investigation will show criminality against the President that is continuing to this day with Adam Shiff's kangaroo court. Is knowingly committing Sedition/Treason by Adam Shiff really make him immune to CRIMINAL prosecution?

What exactly has been uncovered? Exactly nothing. The President has already been cleared of any crimes regarding the phone call. Shifty's kangaroo court can only lie, project and hide the truth for so long. Sounds like they are going back into the secret bunker because it make it easier to control their false narratives and what they cherry pick to leek to the public. I mean really. Coaching a witness WHILE they are testifying and not allowing testimony or witnesses that would support the President's innocence? Really? At least with Nixon the process was fair............
 
LittleSprocket
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Re: Southern states swinging Democrat(ic) in the era of Trump

Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:12 am

They were also Democratic during the age of Jim Crow and the rise of the KKK, what’s your point?
 
DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Southern states swinging Democrat(ic) in the era of Trump

Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:47 am

So Trump doesn't have the pull to win an election in a RED state. Why am I not surprised.
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Southern states swinging Democrat(ic) in the era of Trump

Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:02 am

Really? At least with Nixon the process was fair............

I agree, because the Republican Party then had a brain collectively, they knew right from wrong to some extent. They then were Patriotic to this country, not this illogical crumbum we have now. As I saw on the news today, things maybe fraying a little among the devotees of all that is trump. This is defeat number two for him with all his big advocacy tours meaning nothing. :spin: :spin:
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Southern states swinging Democrat(ic) in the era of Trump

Mon Nov 18, 2019 2:40 am

stratclub wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
afcjets wrote:
The impeachment seems to be working at driving his poll numbers down for now. I think it is going to backfire though, especially when the IG report and Barr and Durham investigations are released.


Except that...umm...those investigations are completely unrelated to the current inquiry. If there are a few partisans in the FBI who violated their federal work rules in 2016, they’ll be fired. That doesn’t change what continues to be uncovered.

The IG Criminal investigation will show criminality against the President that is continuing to this day with Adam Shiff's kangaroo court. Is knowingly committing Sedition/Treason by Adam Shiff really make him immune to CRIMINAL prosecution?

What exactly has been uncovered? Exactly nothing. The President has already been cleared of any crimes regarding the phone call. Shifty's kangaroo court can only lie, project and hide the truth for so long. Sounds like they are going back into the secret bunker because it make it easier to control their false narratives and what they cherry pick to leek to the public. I mean really. Coaching a witness WHILE they are testifying and not allowing testimony or witnesses that would support the President's innocence? Really? At least with Nixon the process was fair............


You can pretend there are no facts with a daily Hannity recap all you want, it won’t change reality.

As for further losses in the sunbelt, it’s mainly a numbers game. This WH has screwed the pooch with suburban voters, and suburban districts are growing in most major centers - PHX, HOU, DAL, ATL, RDU, RIC, JAX, MCO etc. As we saw last November, a lot of them probably like the economic policy and credit the WH, but they are tired of the drama and watching POTUS’s endless childish jabs and unprofessionalism. The current proceedings are not making a huge dent, but will gradually eat away at support further.

Again if the RNC had balls and wanted to have the WH till 2028, they’d get the Senate behind kicking out 45, and put Haley on the ballot. She is EXACTLY what suburban voters want.

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