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Bongodog49
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:49 am

Dutchy wrote:
My two cents, younger people don't think a car is a status symbol, so yes there is room for a basic car and actually a shared car might be the prefered option here. Have a car when needed, but don't have all the cost associated with owning one.


Here in the UK its the opposite, in recent years manufacturers have introduced a form of monthly lease/hire called Personal Contract plan enabling people to have higher spec cars for a minimal down payment and a monthly lease fee. Result lots of people driving around in SUV's etc. After 3 or 4 years however they have nothing to show for their money.
 
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WesternDC6B
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:14 pm

Someone mentioned the lane keep assist. When I bought my present car last autumn, I signed the papers, got in, and started it. The first thing I did after that was press the lane keep assist override button. 13,300 miles (21.404km) later, it remains pushed.

Paraphrasing my brother, i want to drive the car, not have the car drive me.
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Kiwirob
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:24 pm

Bongodog49 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
My two cents, younger people don't think a car is a status symbol, so yes there is room for a basic car and actually a shared car might be the prefered option here. Have a car when needed, but don't have all the cost associated with owning one.


Here in the UK its the opposite, in recent years manufacturers have introduced a form of monthly lease/hire called Personal Contract plan enabling people to have higher spec cars for a minimal down payment and a monthly lease fee. Result lots of people driving around in SUV's etc. After 3 or 4 years however they have nothing to show for their money.


I was told that on many UK vehicle leasing agreements the deposit is able to be transferred to the next vehicle you lease, you only lose the deposit if you move to another manufacturer when your lease is up?
 
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EstherLouise
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:39 pm

I owned basic cars after I got my driving license: A 1974 Pinto with an auto gearbox and AM radio, and, a 1977 Pinto wagon with a 4-speed manual. I now have a Ford Escape Titanium with bells and whistles..... because I deserve it. I pay $410 a month lease on it.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:21 pm

O for the days of cranks spark timing and carve ration control. And miserable brakes
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leghorn
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:32 pm

Renault's Dacia sub-brand has a higher margin than their other brand.
I read an interview with a Dacia manager and he says that it appears that the Customer expects (manual) air con, electric windows, audio and that is about it to keep them happy.
I had a Dacia Sandero as a hire car over Christmas as there were no City cars(which I had booked) available to rent. It was not pleasant but it got the job done. It is not high praise but it is better than walking.
 
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:24 pm

EstherLouise wrote:
I owned basic cars after I got my driving license: A 1974 Pinto with an auto gearbox and AM radio, and, a 1977 Pinto wagon with a 4-speed manual.


Hey, there are lots of worse ways to get around than in a Pinto, particularly a Pinto wagon (Cue "Exploding Pinto Joke" here. The fact that on the affected early models you could see the edge of the gas tank sticking out from underneath the filler panel below the minimalist rear bumper should have been a warning).

My first car was equally basic, a 1970 Chevrolet Nova with V8, automatic transmission, a below-dash aftermarket air conditioner that whacked my right shin every time I got in the car and was removed as soon as I found out it didn't work, and a cheap aftermarket AM/FM 8-Track radio with no station preset buttons. No power steering, no power brakes, no power anything.

EstherLouise wrote:
I now have a Ford Escape Titanium with bells and whistles..... because I deserve it. I pay $410 a month lease on it.


I worry that manufacturers are focusing all their concentration on the "bells and whistles" to the point that they're failing to get the basic stuff right. Cases in point:

Radios- They've added things like MP3 capability, but many basic adjustments on modern radios are only accessible via an on-screen menu meaning you can't adjust the bass or fader for a particular song on the fly. Were discreet and/or concentric knob controls that you could recognize by position and touch alone really such a bad thing? And even once you do get the modern radios set up properly they still sound like crap.

Seats- Back when the only adjustment was fore and aft positioning, manufacturers had to at least try to make seats comfortable once you got them where you wanted them (admittedly many manufacturers failed miserably at this). Now most seats are adjustable for seatback angle, height, etc., but the seats themselves seem to have been designed for a humanoid species but not actual humans so no truly comfy position can be found.
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LMP737
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:09 pm

The best car I ever owned was a 2002 Saturn SL2. Reliable, easy to work on and had good gas mileage. It had a radio/CD player with a cassette player! That was about the fanciest option on that car. Manual windows, the only more way I could have gotten a more base model was to get the SL1 with a manual transmission.

Wish I still had it. All the stuff they have on cars today is just one more thing that can break.
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ACDC8
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:42 am

Well, here in Canada, we can get a base Nissan Micra for $10K new. 5 speed manual, 1.6L DOHC 16 valve 4 cylinder (no silly direct injection), 109hp, no AC, no cruise, no power locks and no power windows. There's actually a race series called the Micra Cup where they take the same car you buy right out of the showroom, no engine mods, just some suspension and exhaust mods and safety equipment and they race them.
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tommy1808
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:18 pm

WesternDC6B wrote:
Someone mentioned the lane keep assist. When I bought my present car last autumn, I signed the papers, got in, and started it. The first thing I did after that was press the lane keep assist override button. 13,300 miles (21.404km) later, it remains pushed.

Paraphrasing my brother, i want to drive the car, not have the car drive me.


Weird way of looking at it, as that also applies to stuff people usually always leave on as well, and usually can't be permanently turned of: anti skid brakes. You brake the car, the car doesn't brake for you. But sometimes you do breake the car if it does not brake for you. I still learned emergency breaking and collision avoidance without anti skid, I still don't turn it off.

Only time I ever "felt" my lane assist was when I provoked it to react to get a feel for how it would interfere with my driving. Just like anti skid brakes, it may one day safe your life.
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Kno
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:06 pm

Dutchy wrote:
My two cents, younger people don't think a car is a status symbol, so yes there is room for a basic car and actually a shared car might be the prefered option here. Have a car when needed, but don't have all the cost associated with owning one.


As a person in their 20s I would say young people absolutely see a car as a status symbol as much as any generation, at least in the States.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:44 pm

Kno wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
My two cents, younger people don't think a car is a status symbol, so yes there is room for a basic car and actually a shared car might be the prefered option here. Have a car when needed, but don't have all the cost associated with owning one.


As a person in their 20s I would say young people absolutely see a car as a status symbol as much as any generation, at least in the States.


That's the key here, geographically challenged. Here in Europe, you see that people don't need a car as much to do what they want to do in their daily life.
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johns624
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:06 pm

NO! Signed---the Yugo marketing and design team.
 
TSS
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:43 pm

johns624 wrote:
NO! Signed---the Yugo marketing and design team.


Yugos actually did sell well, at least until people found out how unreliable they were. A 70s Fiat by any other name is still a 70s Fiat, especially in the mid to late 1980s.

Two of the best-selling cars of all time, the Ford Model T and the Volkswagen Type 1 "Beetle", were very basic cars yet both possessed qualities that no Yugo ever had: They rarely broke, and they were easy to fix on the odd occasions when they did break. Both the Model T and the original Beetle were so well-made and durable that they could be neglected or modified for uses their designers never imagined with no apparent ill effect.
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noviorbis77
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:05 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Kno wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
My two cents, younger people don't think a car is a status symbol, so yes there is room for a basic car and actually a shared car might be the prefered option here. Have a car when needed, but don't have all the cost associated with owning one.


As a person in their 20s I would say young people absolutely see a car as a status symbol as much as any generation, at least in the States.


That's the key here, geographically challenged. Here in Europe, you see that people don't need a car as much to do what they want to do in their daily life.


That is not the case in the UK.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:15 pm

leghorn wrote:
Renault's Dacia sub-brand has a higher margin than their other brand.
I read an interview with a Dacia manager and he says that it appears that the Customer expects (manual) air con, electric windows, audio and that is about it to keep them happy.
I had a Dacia Sandero as a hire car over Christmas as there were no City cars(which I had booked) available to rent. It was not pleasant but it got the job done. It is not high praise but it is better than walking.


Also, with Dacia, the price is the price. You can try to bargain, you'll get nothing.
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Aesma
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:21 pm

ACDC8 wrote:
Well, here in Canada, we can get a base Nissan Micra for $10K new. 5 speed manual, 1.6L DOHC 16 valve 4 cylinder (no silly direct injection), 109hp, no AC, no cruise, no power locks and no power windows. There's actually a race series called the Micra Cup where they take the same car you buy right out of the showroom, no engine mods, just some suspension and exhaust mods and safety equipment and they race them.


Interesting. That's the old Micra, and it seems it is being discontinued. The new Micra we have in Europe since a few years is basically a Renault Clio with sharp edges.
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Aesma
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:24 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Kno wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
My two cents, younger people don't think a car is a status symbol, so yes there is room for a basic car and actually a shared car might be the prefered option here. Have a car when needed, but don't have all the cost associated with owning one.


As a person in their 20s I would say young people absolutely see a car as a status symbol as much as any generation, at least in the States.


That's the key here, geographically challenged. Here in Europe, you see that people don't need a car as much to do what they want to do in their daily life.


My brother and sister live in Paris and don't have a car.

A friend of mine married a Dutch woman and her parents share a car with their neighbours, interesting way of doing things. I'm sure this will develop with apps and electric cars.

Personally, I like to own a car, not as much as a status symbol but as a freedom. Old way of seeing things.
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SuperiorPilotMe
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Sat Jan 11, 2020 3:56 am

This has probably been covered but since when have I shied away from forcing my 2 cents?

No, there isn’t a market for that kind of car anymore. You can thank finance structuring and how ridiculously easy it makes being able to “upsell” a car to anyone, even without resorting to subprime lending. If someone can’t afford a 36 mo payment at $400, just make it a $250/mo payment at 90 mo.

Yes, 90 months. Remember we’re making a buttload of interest (and yes this is just an example) which is why there’s been such a hard push for financing to where it’s the default standard now. You wanna make easy money in the States? Get into auto retail.

This also means that virtually any car is affordable (within reason) it’s just a matter of how long you want to pay for it, not how much. And a $3,000 option package doesn’t seem to expensive when it means just, say, $15 more a month.

So a very basic car just ends up being a losing proposition for everyone. The buyer *feels* they didn’t save much money, typically speaking, for what’s perceived as a vastly inferior version of the same car, and the dealer just lost out on a major profit margin. But it’s that latter point that’s important - dealers drive market behavior in the US auto industry, not consumers (to a point). Again, it’s through the upsell. US auto consumers are extremely eager to be talked into having a better car be more affordable through whatever payment plsn can be worked out.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:05 pm

Teslas sold in the next few years may have a million mile battery pack. Given the general reliability of electric motors and regenerative braking taking much of the load off the braking system the car/SUV/truck itself may be a million mile vehicle, computer updates at regular intervals. Not counting interest such a car could last 80 years and have capital costs of less than $1K (even less than $500) a year. Surely like a plane such a car would need a general rehab probably at the 500K mile mark.

Current economics of buying and operating a basic vehicle will somewhat go by the board. When I was young a five year old car, say at 60K miles was a hasbeen beater most of the time. Now we expect well over 200K miles. You only change cars when your needs change. I suspect that leasing coops might arise and you pay for use of a vehicle and will have the option of simply changing which one you will use.
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SuperiorPilotMe
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:06 pm

There *is* such a point where a payment plan is too long for a dealership’s patience even if interest rates are through the roof. At a certain point, you just need to actually recover your costs. 6 years is pretty much the current limit and even if a Tesla can last long enough to practically be an heirloom I have trouble seeing past 10 years or really the current standard.

A big reason why is depreciation. Even the best new car investments (barring cars specifically manufactured as investments, which is a supercar) lose no less than 50% of purchase value after 5 years and a Tesla lasting 80 years will positively affect its depreciative value...until the manufacturer itself resists that depreciation. Favorable depreciation rates hurts new car sales if left unchecked, to the point where it ends up literally harming itself. There are actual examples of this, cars that have remained unchanged for so long it hurts new car value and threatens used car values in turn - the first Volvo XC90, the current Nissan 370z. The Nissan R35 GT-R manages to stave off used car depreciation because it occupies a unique spot as an “entry-level” supercar but it has affected new car sales. The same thing actually happened to the Bugatti Veyron, although that was mostly due to over-production than being produced too long (though same effect). And it’s very easy for Tesla to put artificial stops on a car lasting too long, including outright bricking it. Or not - just let depreciation take its natural course.

And nobody wants to be “upside down” on a car payment paying $350/mo on a payment plan based on a $42,000 value when the car’s actual “street value” can’t even be appraised into 5 figure territory anymore. At that point the buyer can simply make arrangements to surrender ownership of the car without having a lien put against them or other negative financial side effects.

Not to say that some dealerships don’t try to make payment plans as long as they can with crippling interest rates. In the US this is a type of almost exclusively used car dealer called “buy here pay here” where the buyer is contractually forced to finance through the dealer as a condition of buying the car. This type of business practice is considered incredibly predatory and there’s a movement to outlaw it but it’s very hard to push through.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:11 pm

And odd example of cars retaining value. Brother-in-law wanted a good used Tacoma. He ended up getting a 20 year old one with less than 100K miles. Paid $13K, and a couple thousand more for tires and repairs. It looks new. Car manufacturers are facing heavy weather ahead. Disruptive technology, ownership, manufacturing may destroy the industry I knew in the 40s and 50s. I expect that those 500K mile rehabs will be an important part of manufacturers business plan within a decade or two. As I understand it the current life span of a car is in large part related to when repairs, especially in a collision, are greater than the book value of a car, and repairs have become very expensive.

The problem with 'Zip car' type models is that there is too much liability in the business model. High capital costs, not enough cars, not enough customers, cars in the wrong spot. Poor customer service, especially when things go wrong.
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SuperiorPilotMe
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:44 am

I think there’s some misunderstanding of how depreciation works, or at least that it’s not uniform. You can’t have favorable used car depreciation without the new models being somehow exceptional (mostly by being very high in demand). The Tacoma is an exceptional vehicle because of a number of things (mostly because of its looks that make it popular as a “lifestyle” vehicle) that make it crazy resistant to depreciation. In fact according to ISeeCars.com (one of many sites that track this) the Tacoma ties with the mechanically similar 4Runner/Land Cruiser Prada as one of the best new car investments under $100k.

If you want to see the other extreme look at the Dodge Journey (or Lancia Freemont on some European markets). It combines being in production for far too long, which kills new car values, with low new car consumer demand, which kills depreciation/value retention. This incidentally also is an example of why basic cars are a losing proposition because a new very well-equipped Journey can be bought almost right at depreciative value (as in its value the minute it’s actually purchased, right when depreciation immediately takes effect).

Many disruptive technologies have already come and gone without disrupting the depreciation model at all. Modern ICE’s snd drivetrains are very capable of lasting 200,000 miles/500,000 kms+ with examples aplenty(check out your local online car shopper sites like Autotrader). There’s three main reasons why cars get junked:

- catastrophic accident
- a number of items require collective replacement that exceeds the street value of the car. These aren’t necessarily drivetrain or engine items. Could be various interior items that don’t make the car unsafe to drive but kills the value and appeal nonetheless.
- the street value of the car is so low the car is simply perceived as literal junk, regardless of actual working order

Also, keep in mind that while mechanical components may have long life, wear of interior items like seats have a major impact on residual value. A 1999 Mercedes Benz S550 would’ve had a new 1999 price of north of $100k US (above 80,000 quid or 90,000 Euros). But with worn seats, a broken entertainment and nav interface and 200,000 miles/500,000 kms it wouldn’t be worth $6k in today’s dollars (about three bags in British parlance or 4k-ish in Euros) even if it actually drives fine or at least acceptable.

A new buyer is going to buy/lease (that’s another thing I totally forgot, leasing which also killed basic cars) a new Mercedes. That’s the whole point of being able to afford a Mercedes (or lease it, rather). You’ll have decent newer used Mercedes sales too (or Certified Pre-Owned in the US). Anything older is a hard sell - older Mercedes cars don’t have the flashiness of new ones which in the minds of many consumers is the whole point. It’s less exaggerated with cheaper makes but again payment plans with used cars means you only pay a few bucks more a month for a superior used (or new) car. Manufacturing technology and electric cars don’t change this. It’s like asking how the A320NEO is gonna effect Arsenal’s chances in the World Cup. There’s no genuine connect.

But one disruptive technology that IS going to change things is autonomous technology. In that case depreciation is going to be less and less if a thing because car ownership period is going to be less and less of a thing, slowly replaced by car sharing. That’s an entirely different payment and economic model that makes the OP question outright obsolete, or at least as relevant in today’s world as Series 1 of EastEnders.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:38 pm

Nice post, thanks. You mention how shabby interiors destroy values. I remember how Chrysler products had absolutely horrible interiors compared to General Motors. We got rid of a K car because none of my kids would take it. A low income neighbor did, and later commented that the mechanical reliability made it the best car they ever had - but the interior was s*it.

If a $50-70K car is good for a million miles, surely at the 500K mile mark it would be worth a $10-15K updating of the interior. But it would need a semi-factory upgrade, not a car dealer shop piece by piece. I picture a Tesla specialist looking over a 15-20 year old car, and writing up a sheet of everything needing replacement over the next 20 years, and scheduling when and where the updating was needed. Much like a commercial airliner is maintained.
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Tugger
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:17 pm

SuperiorPilotMe wrote:
The Tacoma is an exceptional vehicle because of a number of things (mostly because of its looks that make it popular as a “lifestyle” vehicle) that make it crazy resistant to depreciation. In fact according to ISeeCars.com (one of many sites that track this) the Tacoma ties with the mechanically similar 4Runner/Land Cruiser Prada as one of the best new car investments under $100k.

Well, the Tacoma suffers from a very real fan-boy problem. That is why it retains its value but it allows mediocrity to be its goal. The Toyota heritage is great but the Tacoma itself is not actually worth the price Toyota charges, of course I say this knowing full well that thanks to its fan base it does retain its value when you go to resell it. Ford and Chevy have suffered from this as well for years (not the resale per se but the fan boys not accepting anything bad to be said and forgiving all sorts of bad driving and problems).

Globally one of the Tacoma's biggest advantages is the massive availability of common parts for repairing it. Its not a great truck but is otherwise reliable on a base level (the various electronic transmissions being the biggest problem) which makes it a good basic truck. But for the $25-$30K base price (in the USA), its poor mileage, small engine, low towing capacity, poor ride quality, etc. it really isn't the best value compared to other options available.

Flame suit on.... :flamed:

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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:11 pm

Consumer Reports has regularly noted that the Tacoma is not an outstanding vehicle. They finally bowed to their readers , and now also report user satisfaction. Toyota still does not get high marks on their objective evaluation, but very high on customer satisfaction. And that too is an objective reality.
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Aesma
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:00 pm

Tesla's interior is very sleek/basic looking so that might help it last longer, and also make it easier to replace.

Car built to be autonomous taxis will probably have an interior optimised for this, with heavy duty carpet, easily replaceable seats, etc.

Voice commands instead of knobs.
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SuperiorPilotMe
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:35 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:

If a $50-70K car is good for a million miles, surely at the 500K mile mark it would be worth a $10-15K updating of the interior. But it would need a semi-factory upgrade, not a car dealer shop piece by piece. I picture a Tesla specialist looking over a 15-20 year old car, and writing up a sheet of everything needing replacement over the next 20 years, and scheduling when and where the updating was needed. Much like a commercial airliner is maintained.


Thanks for the compliments but this reflects a very poor understanding of how the automotive industry and depreciation works, what little effect disruptive technology today has on depreciation and how future disruptive tech can actually change car ownership.

Cars can last a million miles *now*. There are quite a few exceptionally high mileage cars out there including recent and affordable ones like a Hyundai Elantra from the 2010s. But there’s no incentive for a factory rebuild. It just doesn’t make sense.

For starters cars aren’t built and engineered for exceptional long life. They’re not like buildings or even ships. They’re made of mild to high-strength steel, aluminum and magnesium and experience wear forces as a condition of their intended use. They’re not like ships or aircraft that are over-engineered for prolonged use and to resist wear forces that make the basic materials vulnerable. There isn’t any incentive for that. If anything there’s *dis*incentive for manufacturers to do that. They make money building new cars not reman’ing old ones. The long life of cars today is as much accidental as anything else as cars improve to suit consumer demand.

Of course there are exceptions but these are exceptions that prove the rule, as they say. Heavy duty trucks and other vehicles are over-engineered because they’re under such constant use they wear out in due time anyway. “Heavy duty” pickups (2500 and 3500 trucks) are overenginnered out if necessity to carry out their duties and are often built from heavy duty truck frames anyway.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:01 pm

Many Toyotas seem to be engineered for 300K miles. A million is not even close to a magnitude difference. I have a friend to bought an Avalon just hitting that mark. He thinks he will get another 150K out of it, and big fear is that somebody hits him, and he will have to settle for book value. I think he had only one large repair bill and that was for the air conditioner. I wouldn't be surprised if the driver's seat wasn't due. The Tesla model 3 may be designed for the million mile, battery maybe needing replacement as late as 500K. The book on depreciation likely needs a heavy rewriting, if not replacement. Should I live long enough I will be watching what is happening to the value of an older (but not the oldest) 300 mile range model S.
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SuperiorPilotMe
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:00 am

The book on depreciation is based entirely off consumer habits and what people are willing to pay. It can’t be arbitrarily “rewritten” without effectively losing credibility. There are other factors that go into depreciation besides wear and repair costs. At a certain point an old car will just become obsolete compared to a new one.

And no it’s not like slapping Garmin screens into a Skylane. Nobody’s going to pay $15,000 to update the infotainment on a 15 year old car. That’s completely nonsensical especially when that represents at least half of a new car.
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Aesma
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:23 am

The median American household has only $11,700 in savings, so maybe the question should be "why are people spending so much on cars when they shouldn't ?".
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:53 pm

Automobile manufacturers, suppliers, unions, government planners are all concerned about the disruption that EVs seem to present to their very large and often not very profitable companies. Changes in depreciation is only one small item on their worry list. Number of vehicles sold, simplification of assembly, the entire disappearance of huge segments of the industry, increased automation all pose challenges. What is not controversial is that while the solution to a plain ordinary car has and will change, it is about to happen. That new Mustang (which was such a vehicle) that I bought in 1965 will be available in a few years and will be an astounding car, not just a 'neat' car.
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Aesma
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:24 am

I heard on the radio that inflation numbers in the US have as their core a huge housing component, then new car, then used car. So the change to EVs will also change inflation numbers, monetary policy, etc.

In the EU manufacturers now have to sell a lot of electric cars, or they will face huge fines.

Tesla stock is skyrocketing, so clearly financial markets believe it's happening. I'm a fan of Tesla who can't afford their cars, so I'm a bit skeptical.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Kno
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:28 pm

If you want a plain ordinary car just buy a Used well maintained accord with low miles and few options.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:48 pm

SuperiorPilotMe wrote:
And it’s very easy for Tesla to put artificial stops on a car lasting too long, including outright bricking it.


I am fairly sure that would, at least in the EU, be illegal. Car makers are required to support 3rd party garages in fixing their vehicles.

Aesma wrote:
In the EU manufacturers now have to sell a lot of electric cars, or they will face huge fines.


Not really, they have to get their sold vehicles fleets to below 95g CO2/km, they can accomplish that by pushing plug in hybrids much more easily. And in their pricing you can see that is what they do, the plug in hybrids often selling around the same price, or even below, the equivalent diesel offerings.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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Aesma
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:23 pm

The cheapest PHEV costs more than 30000€, most of them much more than that, it will be a tough sell for many !
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
M564038
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:20 pm

Aesma wrote:
The cheapest PHEV costs more than 30000€, most of them much more than that, it will be a tough sell for many !

Used Nissan Leafs are as low as €4000, I know we have a few years on the rest due to a lucky break with our tax-policies, but our city center on a normal weekday is a majority EVs now. It is easily noticeable on the air quality, and as a EV-owner (without his own charging station), I simply LOL at people saying EVs aren’t going to happen. I would never ever consider a dinosaur-car again. Never. They are gross and sounds like they are farting.

The EV revolution is going to happen, and it will happen real fast!
 
B777LRF
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:40 pm

To answer the OP: Yes, there is such a requirement and it's huge. Globally, that is. The VW Up!, Seat Mii and Skoda CitiGo trifecta is proof positive of that, as are the Citroen C1 / Toyota Aygo duo. The best selling car in the world is the Toyota Corolla, which is a fairly simple and small car. That American's only want to buy SUVs is hardly indicative of where the global market is going.
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tommy1808
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:23 pm

M564038 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
The cheapest PHEV costs more than 30000€, most of them much more than that, it will be a tough sell for many !

Used Nissan Leafs are as low as €4000


Used cars don't help with fleet CO2 emissions from the OEM perspective.... only new counts.
And for everyone in the market for a new car at least from a purchasing cost perspective Plug in hybrids still beat comparable EV.

The EV revolution is going to happen, and it will happen real fast!


yup, it will, until:

a) everyone charges after xmas/Easter or what not holidays, and load shedding, to keep the lights on, either turns chargers off (smart grid) or does high millions to billions in economic damage by shedding company loads.*
b) you plug your car into a smart grid connected charger and it tells you "if you want to charge right now, that'll be 2 EUR/KWh".**

Best regards
Thomas

*German vehicle park going EV and being grid connected at the same time, even charging 1 one-phase AC only, would need about twice the current average electricity supply. Fast charging could exceed the EUs available production capacity.
**if you think that is paranoid, that is exactly what utilities plan to do, and they started buying equipment to roll that out in earnest about one year ago.
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Thu Jan 16, 2020 1:41 pm

B777LRF wrote:
To answer the OP: Yes, there is such a requirement and it's huge. Globally, that is. The VW Up!, Seat Mii and Skoda CitiGo trifecta is proof positive of that, as are the Citroen C1 / Toyota Aygo duo. The best selling car in the world is the Toyota Corolla, which is a fairly simple and small car. That American's only want to buy SUVs is hardly indicative of where the global market is going.

Meanwhile in the real world... VW Group (VW, Skoda, Seat) alone has added 7 SUV models to their portfolio in the last 3-4 years. Europeans are jumping the bandwagon of SUV-mania just as much.
BTW, Corolla is not a small car. It shares the same platform, samé wheelbase with Toyota Avensis, i.e. standard European midsize car (VW Passat, Ford Mondeo, etc.).
Aygo/C1/108 will be discontinued and the factory, now 100% Toyota-owned, will produce Yaris instead.
 
M564038
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:55 pm

There has been no problems with EV charging loads, and we have a lot of them. 5kWh consumption per car per day on average is not a huge deal, especially if you consider refineres use half that just in electricity to make the fuel it replaces.



Zero. Problems.


tommy1808 wrote:
M564038 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
The cheapest PHEV costs more than 30000€, most of them much more than that, it will be a tough sell for many !

Used Nissan Leafs are as low as €4000


Used cars don't help with fleet CO2 emissions from the OEM perspective.... only new counts.
And for everyone in the market for a new car at least from a purchasing cost perspective Plug in hybrids still beat comparable EV.

The EV revolution is going to happen, and it will happen real fast!


yup, it will, until:

a) everyone charges after xmas/Easter or what not holidays, and load shedding, to keep the lights on, either turns chargers off (smart grid) or does high millions to billions in economic damage by shedding company loads.*
b) you plug your car into a smart grid connected charger and it tells you "if you want to charge right now, that'll be 2 EUR/KWh".**

Best regards
Thomas

*German vehicle park going EV and being grid connected at the same time, even charging 1 one-phase AC only, would need about twice the current average electricity supply. Fast charging could exceed the EUs available production capacity.
**if you think that is paranoid, that is exactly what utilities plan to do, and they started buying equipment to roll that out in earnest about one year ago.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:55 pm

M564038 wrote:
There has been no problems with EV charging loads, and we have a lot of them. 5kWh consumption per car per day on average is not a huge deal, especially if you consider refineres use half that just in electricity to make the fuel it replaces.

Zero. Problems.


So many problems with that way of thinking.

a) average is meaningless, peak consumption is the only relevant number when it comes to EV. Well, electricity, period.
b) there have been no problems so far because there is currently plenty of excess production capacity to turn on
c) plenty of consumers with load shedding in their supply contract, so extraordinary peaks are manageable until that is regularly used up.
d) ask your local utility what that currently means for peak grid loading. And they will usually tell you that parts of towns with lots of EV cars (and grid connected roof PV) are pretty much on the edge*.
e) lots of small consumers add up. Here going all EV would mean an extra 15GW load, on average, with 60GW being the current average total..25% more, not too bad. But cars are not grid connected 24/7. If its 12 hours on average you are talking 30GW (+50%), if its 8 you are looking at 45GW (+75%) extra load.
f) that's the average day. There are plenty of non average days. You know, when lines form at the gas station..... holiday weekends mostly. As I said: all hooked to single phase AC only is way above what we can supply.
e) utilities wouldn't sink billions over billions in smart grid modernisation if that wasn't a big concern.

I am not saying EV is bad, or not where we will and should ultimately end up with, it is just not remotely as simple as people think. Power doesn't come out of an outlet, it has to be made and transported, just in time, with millisecond precision, in exactly the right amount. Just look at the infrastructure a DSO has to but in place to support a newly opened aluminium plant. That's just a city block or so worth of EV charging.

Best regards
Thomas

*i do talk with people from major DSO/TNOs just about every day, as critical infrastructure/substation automation is one of our verticals, they all want to be able to turn your charging off or bill surcharges at peak times. I am literally getting paid to make you pay.
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
SuperiorPilotMe
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Thu Jan 16, 2020 4:26 pm

Aesma wrote:
The median American household has only $11,700 in savings, so maybe the question should be "why are people spending so much on cars when they shouldn't ?".


I already answered that question: financing. It’s not about how much you’re willing to pay for a car it’s how *long*
Stop the stupids!- Claus Kellerman
 
SuperiorPilotMe
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Thu Jan 16, 2020 4:36 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
the disruption that EVs seem to present to their very large and often not very profitable companies.


The ones that are successful are *extremely* profitable, among the most profitable companies on the planet, and there’s a fair number of them (in an admittedly small pool to begin with).


Changes in depreciation is only one small item on their worry list.


It’s not even on their list to begin with. Used cars are in fact the enemy. A used car on the market competes with a new version of itself. This is why the manufacturer-dealer relationship in the US is...interesting, and sometimes even hostile.

Number of vehicles sold, simplification of assembly, the entire disappearance of huge segments of the industry, increased automation all pose challenges.


Historically this is at least somewhat true but in the end these have proven to be immense advantages in favor of the manufacturer. Simplification of assembly = quicker, easier, cheaper and usually with less labor and in turn less pesky union involvement (really I don’t know why this is apparently hard to understand). The disappearance of huge markets, especially in favor of the massive preference of SUVs in the US, has meant salespeople shifting consumers towards more profitable SUVs instead (remember, payment plans and financing). And decreased auto sales has proven to be fiction, at least in the US: look at goodcarbadcar.net and most manufacturers have record SUV sales deep into dix figures, for each individual SUV model.

What is not controversial is that while the solution to a plain ordinary car has and will change, it is about to happen. That new Mustang (which was such a vehicle) that I bought in 1965 will be available in a few years and will be an astounding car, not just a 'neat' car.


I don’t even know what this is supposed to mean.

tommy1808 wrote:
SuperiorPilotMe wrote:
And it’s very easy for Tesla to put artificial stops on a car lasting too long, including outright bricking it.


I am fairly sure that would, at least in the EU, be illegal. Car makers are required to support 3rd party garages in fixing their vehicles.


That *is* true...up to a point. Manufacturers are required to keep support yo a reasonable degree and don’t underestimate the ability of manufacturers to redefine “reasonable” well in their favor when EVs start really providing their worth. It certainly wouldn’t be multiple decades.

It’s not even without precedent. GM “bricked” the EV-1.
Stop the stupids!- Claus Kellerman
 
tommy1808
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:59 am

SuperiorPilotMe wrote:
That *is* true...up to a point. Manufacturers are required to keep support yo a reasonable degree and don’t underestimate the ability of manufacturers to redefine “reasonable” well in their favor when EVs start really providing their worth. It certainly wouldn’t be multiple decades.

It’s not even without precedent. GM “bricked” the EV-1.


Here they had a pretty steep learning curve what "reasonable" means ..... turns out their understanding of "reasonable" was completely different from what courts and public understood that to mean.

If the Cars software is getting in the way of repairing it, Tesla will have to make that information available. They will learn that, Tesla here still thinks they can void warranty for taking it to a "non-authorized" garage.......

And the EV-1s where owned by GM, of course they can do with it as they please.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:22 pm

We probably should have a separate thread or two, this one really is about an inexpensive basic car. There is big controversy about what basic is, and fun to discuss. And 'inexpensive' is obviously a relative term. That belongs here.

New threads: A big question is if and when electric will be disruptive. And how that relates to the health of the auto industry. Possibly separate questions.
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M564038
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Fri Jan 17, 2020 11:13 pm

Both in your replies to me, and this, it is almost like you’ve read a 10 year old text book.

Where I live, the EV-disruption has already happened.
So we KNOW that the grid survived. We KNOW that your armageddon talk about loads breaking everything is ridcolous. We also know that 3rd party repairs is possible with Tesla. We also know that EVs are great cars for long distance batteries even with moderate battery sizes, and that EVs work great in cold climates.

There you go.


tommy1808 wrote:
SuperiorPilotMe wrote:
That *is* true...up to a point. Manufacturers are required to keep support yo a reasonable degree and don’t underestimate the ability of manufacturers to redefine “reasonable” well in their favor when EVs start really providing their worth. It certainly wouldn’t be multiple decades.

It’s not even without precedent. GM “bricked” the EV-1.


Here they had a pretty steep learning curve what "reasonable" means ..... turns out their understanding of "reasonable" was completely different from what courts and public understood that to mean.

If the Cars software is getting in the way of repairing it, Tesla will have to make that information available. They will learn that, Tesla here still thinks they can void warranty for taking it to a "non-authorized" garage.......

And the EV-1s where owned by GM, of course they can do with it as they please.

best regards
Thomas
 
M564038
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Sat Jan 18, 2020 12:12 am

Well, the next big thing basic car is obviously an EV.
Wetter it is the M3, the Zoe or the ID3, which follows a pretty successful series: Beetle->Golf-> ID3.
It could be one of those, but guess is that the EV-«beetle» is probably none of those but more or less right around the corner.
They are closing in.

frmrCapCadet wrote:
We probably should have a separate thread or two, this one really is about an inexpensive basic car. There is big controversy about what basic is, and fun to discuss. And 'inexpensive' is obviously a relative term. That belongs here.

New threads: A big question is if and when electric will be disruptive. And how that relates to the health of the auto industry. Possibly separate questions.
 
babyanthony763
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Sat Jan 18, 2020 8:36 am

For many car enthusiasts(especially those that are more purist), a car that is sparse with modern features is likely to be attractive, though it will probably need these features/characteristics:
  • Rear Wheel Drive
  • Manual Transmission
  • Independent Front and Rear Suspension
  • Lightweight
  • Easy to work on/fix/modify even for amateur mechanics
  • Has a huge aftermarket (though eventually there will be if it became popular among car enthusiasts)
However, I don't mean that it has to be a sports car or it has to be fast for it to be attractive for car enthusiasts.

I don't think it can sell very well for non-car enthusiasts though.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Is There a Market for a Plain, Ordinary Car?

Sat Jan 18, 2020 8:54 am

M564038 wrote:
Where I live, the EV-disruption has already happened.
So we KNOW that the grid survived.


You do know that, which btw I never disagreed with, so why bring it up?

We KNOW that your armageddon talk about loads breaking everything is ridcolous.


Load shedding. It's a standard practice and has been for decades. It exists for a reason. Come back when you know how a power grid works.
A grid obviously breaks when you draw too much power, I am amazed that even needs explaining. Math doesn't lie either, with EV it is very easy to exceed the *production capacity* by an order of magnitude. If you come up with a calculation showing that 40 million times 22kw is somehow less than 100GW, we can talk. Until that moment it remains a fact that EVs can overload the grid even with a moderate percentage of them is charging at the same time, even when charging slow.

A good rule of thumb is 1kw/hour/person for private and business power consumption combined outside of extreme areas to either way.... and surprise, that is about close to the production and grid capacity we have.
What you are claiming in essence is that our grid somehow has 100+% in spare production, grid and transformation capacity, that operators spend billions over billions on, just for it to sit around until someone makes a practical EV car. Right, we all know that is how business works...

You simply don't notice that in your pricing yet because relatively few EV drivers use existing reserves, that got larger with the general increase of efficiency and moving electricity intensive industries elsewhere, and expansions are conveniently paid by everyone, instead of charging it to EV owners in full*, like it is practise for everybody else with elevated power needs.

We also know that 3rd party repairs is possible with Tesla.


Yeah, because I said it, and I think I even provided the directive that makes it law.

We also know that EVs are great cars for long distance batteries even with moderate battery sizes, and that EVs work great in cold climates


Straw man much...
And great for long distance.... depends on what your long distances are. Mine often have 900+ KM. And while Siemens, you know, grid people, has chargers in the parking lot in Nuremberg, they are already occupied when I get there. When EV cars can do that without a stop, then they are good long distance vehicles...

Best regards
Thomas

*which would be counter productive for climate goals, but would be fair as those charges are effectively a new Tax.
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6

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