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Jouhou
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Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:39 am

Alright guys, giving an outlet for the political discussion needs of the civil aviation thread. Everyone seems to have a burning desire for this. Please do not get overly aggressive about it.

I'll start, for the forum Russians, what did Russia stand to gain from disseminating images that called Iran out? I absolutely did not expect that. Did I miss something? Did Russia have a falling out with Iran? Russia usually benefits from the west isolating Iran, Russia would have benefited from Iran denying it and further isolating their selves as a pariah state. Or maybe it's some obscure thing pertaining to Ukrainian politics? Please inform me.
 
bristolflyer1
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:00 pm

Massive thank you to Jouhou for creating this thread. We need it. It's critically important.

These things are bothering me:

Several other planes left that morning (10 I think), several of them late. Why did this particular plane get shot down, with zero Americans and mostly Iranians on board? Coincidence? Just the unlucky one?

Why did Iran do a sudden U-turn to end hostilities, (oh OK, lets call it even then and stop fighting), does that happen often when war has just started, I wonder?

Why did Iran do a sudden U-turn on being adamant that the plane wasn’t hit by one of their missiles? They must surely have known that with the international community inspecting the plane, a missile hit would quickly be uncovered. (I think their lack of preservation of the scene was due to incompetence, plus the pieces of the plane were already being reassembled in an indoor hangar).

What did Iran mean when they said they were the victim of ‘psychological warfare’?

Join the dots….
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:17 pm

My take:

bristolflyer1 wrote:
Several other planes left that morning (10 I think), several of them late. Why did this particular plane get shot down, with zero Americans and mostly Iranians on board? Coincidence? Just the unlucky one?


Being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

bristolflyer1 wrote:
Why did Iran do a sudden U-turn to end hostilities, (oh OK, lets call it even then and stop fighting), does that happen often when war has just started, I wonder?


Iran wasn't the one being aggressive, that was the US, which started with giving up the perfectly good and working Iran-deal. They haven't anything to gain by starting a real shooting war. If that were to start, it would have left Iran in ruins. But they had to react, so attacking US military installations in Iraq, with a warning so to minimize deaths, was a perfectly reasonable response, aimed at not escalating things.

bristolflyer1 wrote:
Why did Iran do a sudden U-turn on being adamant that the plane wasn’t hit by one of their missiles? They must surely have known that with the international community inspecting the plane, a missile hit would quickly be uncovered. (I think their lack of preservation of the scene was due to incompetence, plus the pieces of the plane were already being reassembled in an indoor hangar).


The first reaction is not a good one to go by. Most probably the people in charge didn't know what have happened, didn't have the facts yet, so they denied it. Same thing with the MH17, the first reaction was; yeah we have shot down a Ukrainian military transport, after that they realized what has happened and the deny started and blaming of Ukraine.
Iran came to their senses and indeed they knew they couldnot hide it for long, so better to come out with it and give the proper context.

bristolflyer1 wrote:
What did Iran mean when they said they were the victim of ‘psychological warfare’?


As I understand it, I haven't checked it myself, a US politician said on twitter that US bombers were on their way to Teheran. Given the US and certainly the person in charge at the moment, a response could have been an attack on Teheran. So my interpretation is that they mean this by that.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:19 pm

You cannot reason with primitive regimes like Iran.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:20 pm

Jouhou wrote:
I'll start, for the forum Russians, what did Russia stand to gain from disseminating images that called Iran out? I absolutely did not expect that. Did I miss something? Did Russia have a falling out with Iran?


The Putin regime already benefited massively, the oil prices are up. And what is to gain from denying what is already out there? Sure, they did it with the MH17 - still not taken any responsibility for it while there is overwhelming evidence -, but that is different, they can't admit it without admitting that they are involved in the war in eastern Ukraine. In this case, it happened within the country, so it is quite clear who shot it down, nobody else could have done that. So better to pull of the bandit in one go and move on.
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Dutchy
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:22 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
You cannot reason with primitive regimes like Iran.


No surprise that you react like you do. You are wrong, evidence; Iran-deal.
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sevenair
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:42 pm

I think the response of many to the disaster were predictable.

There are a lot of posters on the left of the political spectrum on here. In the almost 20 years of being a member there's been a marked shift from open discussion from a broad spectrum, to a definite shift to the left and a closing down of opposing views as well as point scoring, trolling and pedantry.

From my experience, it seems to be a cardinal sin for those on the left to criticise Islam, followers of Islam and Islamic countries even when the religion has nothing to do with the event in question. They vehemently defend countries and regimes that are the antithesis of their core liberal values.

True to form, despite the statistics of weapons being fired in the area then a few hours go by and a plane falls from the sky in flames being an extremely high probability of being connected, people denied thee could be a link. For all of the cities, for all of the flights in the world, it just happened to happen in Tehran.

Then, despite obvious evidence of a shoot down from numerous reliable sources, people were denying it was a shoot down literally up to an hour before Iran admitted it. Don't jump to conclusions we were told.

We did not see this with MH17 because the perpetrators were going to be either Russian or Ukrainian. Within minutes we heard rumours of a shoot down and we went with it. Not the case with PS752.

I think people allowed their political persuasions to get in the way of the obvious which is a shame where those of us on the more free thinking side of the spectrum had it right from within a few hours of the news breaking, yet we sneered as, told to pipe down, told not to speculate or told to wait for the accident report.

When the Iranians finally admitted to it (because the had to), people threw in their whataboutery and strawmanning with mentions of Trump, 'oh but what about IR655'.

You also have them then defending the killing if a major terrorist organiser and would rather whine about Trump and his nasty tweets rather than the many deaths caused by Sulameini.

I can't help but think if this occured someplace else, the response of posters would be very different.
Last edited by sevenair on Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:01 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:48 pm

IMO IR655 is why it's so shocking Iranian air defenses weren't more careful. It's not like they don't know how bad that would be for them.
 
sevenair
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:52 pm

Jouhou wrote:
IMO IR655 is why it's so shocking Iranian air defenses weren't more careful. It's not like they don't know how bad that would be for them.


Exactly. Hypocrites. They can no longer play this victim card they've been using for 30 years.
 
bristolflyer1
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:58 pm

Thanks for replying guys. You may be absolutely right, and I may just be being paranoid, but something about this is niggling me, and I am trying to put my finger on it.

"wrong place wrong time". Maybe, but so many other planes left before it, also not on schedule. I would be very interested to see the passenger manifests of the 10 planes leaving earlier that day to see their nationalities. (Not that these would ever be released!).

I have wondered if the USA or the Russians shot down the plane. "Russia usually benefits from the west isolating Iran, Russia would have benefited from Iran denying it and further isolating their selves as a pariah state. Or maybe it's some obscure thing pertaining to Ukrainian politics? Please inform me." So they had the motive.

USA - demonstration of their power - if Iran doesn't keep its place, the USA will stop at nothing to destroy them, making it look like they shot down their own plane.

This, to me, would be psychological warfare.

PS752 was visible on FR24, possibly even in the air with a powerful scope, can we really believe the Iranians shot not one, but two missiles at it? Wouldn't the first hit have lit up what it had actually struck? There must have been enough time between the two launches for the one guy to have turned his camera one and aimed it at the sky.

"Iran wasn't the one being aggressive, that was the US, " I am 100% in agreement.

"attacking US military installations in Iraq, with a warning so to minimize deaths, was a perfectly reasonable response, aimed at not escalating things". Yes, so not wanting to escalate things, one would think they would have been much more careful about launching the two missiles which downed the plane.

"Iran came to their senses and indeed they knew they couldnot hide it for long" Could indeed be right, but they would have seen immediately there was no evidence of engines overheating, the Ukrainians also immediately pointed this out early yesterday. Surely they would have known earlier than this morning that it must have been something more sinister. But perhaps as you say, they were just being stubborn not admitting it until they were absolutely sure they would not get away with it? I dunno....

"a US politician said on twitter that US bombers were on their way to Teheran" but I think this was a few days ago and the psychological warfare comment was made yesterday. I think they were trying their best to hint at something.

I have no answers and I may very well be wrong, but I'm still suspicious.
 
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:04 pm

sevenair wrote:
I think people allowed their political persuasions to get in the way of the obvious which is a shame where those of us on the more free thinking side of the spectrum had it right from within a few hours of the news breaking, yet we sneered as, told to pipe down, told not to speculate or told to wait for the accident report.

When the Iranians finally admitted to it (because the had to), people threw in their whataboutery and strawmanning with mentions of Trump, 'oh but what about IR655'.

You also have them then defending the killing if a major terrorist organiser and would rather whine about Trump and his nasty tweets rather than the many deaths caused by Sulameini.

I can't help but think if this occured someplace else, the response of posters would be very different.


It's not only that - but conspiracy nuttery has gone rampant across the web, not only a.net. Many good geopolitical Twitter feeds that attempt to do careful vetting like @ELINT were infiltrated in this event by posters who insisted there was a US conspiracy to target this aircraft, and so on and so forth. Once that poison gets in the water, it's hard to have serious discussions about anything.

As for Soleimani, if you claw through the thread on his death, there is more nuance than you think. A lot of us stated that there are multiple realities with the guy - yes he's a master of terrorist guerilla warfare, but also a major destroyer of ISIS in Iraq, and therefore a hero to Shia everywhere. He was though, in the end, just an IRGC major general. That, in of itself, is incomparable to a position of such massive global impact and responsibility as POTUS, so it's a bit silly to mention them in the same breath.
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bristolflyer1
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:04 pm

Something I would really like to know, is the capabilities of a military infrared scope. The plane was (correct me if I'm wrong), only around 4,000 feet above the terrain (which was about another 4,000ft above sea level). You can make out its shape with the naked eye on the poor resolution mobile phone video. How could a plane you could literally see from the ground, be mistaken for a US missile? They're a bit different in size and shape eh?

Edit - cruise missiles are 20 feet long, the plane was 140 feet long...
Last edited by bristolflyer1 on Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:06 pm

Jouhou wrote:
IMO IR655 is why it's so shocking Iranian air defenses weren't more careful. It's not like they don't know how bad that would be for them.


That wasn't the only failure. What is more mind boggling, is that on a night when there was active theater in the western half of the country, and associated uncertainty with US response to their ballistic strike, there seemed to be incredible lack of communication between authorities. The best way to have kept any commercial flights safe would have been TOTAL closure of IKA for the night, until response and other factors could be known. Just abject irresponsibility.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:08 pm

bristolflyer1 wrote:
Something I would really like to know, is the capabilities of a military infrared scope. The plane was (correct me if I'm wrong), only around 4,000 feet above the terrain (which was about another 4,000ft above sea level). You can make out its shape with the naked eye on the poor resolution mobile phone video. How could a plane you could literally see from the ground, be mistaken for a US missile? They're a bit different in size and shape eh?


As I understand it, it wasn't an IR-missile, but a radar-guided one, if that is the case, they never viewed it directly, but saw a blip on the scope and reacted to that.
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Dutchy
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:09 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
IMO IR655 is why it's so shocking Iranian air defenses weren't more careful. It's not like they don't know how bad that would be for them.


That wasn't the only failure. What is more mind boggling, is that on a night when there was active theater in the western half of the country, and associated uncertainty with US response to their ballistic strike, there seemed to be incredible lack of communication between authorities. The best way to have kept any commercial flights safe would have been TOTAL closure of IKA for the night, until response and other factors could be known. Just abject irresponsibility.


Yes, I agree with that. They should have closed the Iranian airspace right after the first missile was launched.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
bristolflyer1
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:11 pm

"As I understand it, it wasn't an IR-missile, but a radar-guided one, if that is the case, they never viewed it directly, but saw a blip on the scope and reacted to that."

Apologies, I am not clear where the missile was fired from but wasn't it nearby? Despite looking at a radar screen couldn't they have seen with their own eyes what was in the sky? (Unless in an underground bunker I guess). Would a blip from an airliner look the same on the screen as a missile? Don't they have more sophisticated tech to see the size of the object causing the blip?

Wasn't the transponder on until the first missile hit? So how could this have been missed?
 
bristolflyer1
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:06 pm

Over on the main thread they have confirmed the plane was shot down whilst still transponding, i.e. within 6 seconds of a blip, and we are still expected to believe this was an accident? And they had no other technology to differentiate an object (plane) 7 times the size of a missile? Perhaps under the circumstances my scepticism can be excused...
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:09 pm

bristolflyer1 wrote:
Over on the main thread they have confirmed the plane was shot down whilst still transponding, i.e. within 6 seconds of a blip, and we are still expected to believe this was an accident? And they had no other technology to differentiate an object (plane) 7 times the size of a missile? Perhaps under the circumstances my scepticism can be excused...


Think about this, if there wasn't any posability for mistake, why have serveral airlines be shot down by mistake?

Secoundly, what did Iranians have to gain by shooting down an Ukrainian a/c on purpuse?
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:20 pm

sevenair wrote:
I think the response of many to the disaster were predictable.


There were some on Reddit, in their Politics forum, that posted that they "Blamed Trump first and Iran second for the shooting down of the 737." Even in that forum, that kind of statement got push back. The whataboutism is off the charts.
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maps4ltd
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:21 pm

Dutchy wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
You cannot reason with primitive regimes like Iran.


No surprise that you react like you do. You are wrong, evidence; Iran-deal.


...which Iran barely even pretended to abide by.
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:24 pm

Dutchy wrote:
DIRECTFLT wrote:
I'm surprised that Iran, being Iran, hasn't blamed Israel for hacking into their missile system and shooting down the passenger plane.

The operator of the missile system could not have mistaken the 737 as a military plane. The operator's mistake was shooting anyway, when there was a 99% chance the plane wasn't military. They'll likely execute the person(s) that shot down the 737, so, the world, will never know about what really happened. Only Iran's statements about what happened based on their investigation.


Quite a bold statement. But tell me, you cleary think Iran intentionally shot down this 737, what is their motive to do so? Basic question in a criminal investigation.


I think that in "the fog of war" that they somehow interpreted a 737 as being a military threat.
Iran is putting out this narrative that the 737 was coming back because it had too much fuel, and that it wandered off track as it was coming back. Well, the data in the black boxes will clear that up. And I am assuming the world will get to eventually see that data. Not releasing it would invite cover-up.
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Aaron747
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:26 pm

maps4ltd wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
You cannot reason with primitive regimes like Iran.


No surprise that you react like you do. You are wrong, evidence; Iran-deal.


...which Iran barely even pretended to abide by.


If you’re going to discuss, either cite things properly or don’t bother. It just sounds silly posting WH talking points so easily disproven:

https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-04 ... clear-deal

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/gettin ... 1577984670

https://www.foxnews.com/world/un-atomic ... r-deal.amp

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R40094.pdf

And you can read the reports yourself:

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/i ... ea-reports
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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 3:24 pm

Oil prices, Brent and WTI, are back where they were the weeks before the Soleimani killing.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti?utm_source=intl
 
MaverickM11
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 3:55 pm

I'm honestly shocked Iran has been so forthcoming, admitting to shooting it down. That puts them way ahead of Russia and MH17 or the USA and IR655--I would have guessed they'd stonewall and gaslight since there's no consequence for doing so.
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Dutchy
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:02 pm

MaverickM11 wrote:
I'm honestly shocked Iran has been so forthcoming, admitting to shooting it down. That puts them way ahead of Russia and MH17 or the USA and IR655--I would have guessed they'd stonewall and gaslight since there's no consequence for doing so.


US admitted what they did. Russia hasn't (yet).
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WIederling
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:28 pm

Jouhou wrote:
... , what did Russia stand to gain from disseminating images that called Iran out. ..


I seem to have missed this. Do you have a reference, please?

( I've seen the Duma sitters making some statement.
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/ir ... 20-01-11/#
go down to "Russian lawmakers" )
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treetreeseven
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:46 pm

~175 people died as a knock-on effect of Trump's early re-election campaigning. Case closed.
 
dmg626
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:12 pm

treetreeseven wrote:
~175 people died as a knock-on effect of Trump's early re-election campaigning. Case closed.


They died because of an itchy trigger finger on the missile battery crew. Other planes flew that night, other missile batteries were in operation, the blame lies squarely on them.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:18 pm

Some reports are saying that the missile crew mistook the 737 for an incoming missile...
Is that how it works??
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Jouhou
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:26 pm

WIederling wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
... , what did Russia stand to gain from disseminating images that called Iran out. ..


I seem to have missed this. Do you have a reference, please?

( I've seen the Duma sitters making some statement.
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/ir ... 20-01-11/#
go down to "Russian lawmakers" )


The first media outlet with any substantial market penetration in western markets to be showing images of the SA-15 head and questioning the handling of the crash site was shockingly ruptly (for those who didn't notice, *RU*ptly is apparently in the same vein as RT and sputnik where their Russian affiliation is no secret and their name is a nod towards their origins- and most of their western viewers never catch on to their Russian affiliation.

My reference would be the civil aviation thread, which is already many many pages deep, that pretty much chronicles the release of information. Note the ruptly watermarked photos in there and the video later on when people were concerned the evidence was being destroyed by "bulldozing" the field.
 
WIederling
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:49 pm

Jouhou wrote:
The first media outlet with any substantial market penetration in western markets to be showing images of the SA-15 head and questioning the handling of the crash site was shockingly ruptly (for those who didn't notice, *RU*ptly is apparently in the same vein as RT and sputnik where their Russian affiliation is no secret and their name is a nod towards their origins- and most of their western viewers never catch on to their Russian affiliation.

My reference would be the civil aviation thread, which is already many many pages deep, that pretty much chronicles the release of information. Note the ruptly watermarked photos in there and the video later on when people were concerned the evidence was being destroyed by "bulldozing" the field.


RUptly seems to be more of a news service provider than anything else:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruptly

Interesting, the screed on the DE WP page outside of a "Kritik" article item.
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruptly ( use google translate )
doesn't really fit WP standards.
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NIKV69
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:54 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Iran wasn't the one being aggressive, that was the US, which started with giving up the perfectly good and working Iran-deal. They haven't anything to gain by starting a real shooting war. If that were to start, it would have left Iran in ruins. But they had to react, so attacking US military installations in Iraq, with a warning so to minimize deaths, was a perfectly reasonable response, aimed at not escalating things.



Shooting rockets is being aggressive. Also the targets were not US military installations they were Iraqi. If Iran was so worried about not escalating they wouldn't have fired rockets, even if it was missing and not killing on purpose. Or being trigger happy when a commercial airliner flew overhead. That is the thing about terrorists they don't care who they kill and it's always the other person's fault. Your assertion that they get a pass since the US took out a murderer is alarming.

DIRECTFLT wrote:
I think that in "the fog of war" that they somehow interpreted a 737 as being a military threat.


Who is Iran at war with? Who was attacking them that night? I didn't see anybody. Just an excuse that the US is at fault because they don't like terrorists.
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Jouhou
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:58 pm

WIederling wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
The first media outlet with any substantial market penetration in western markets to be showing images of the SA-15 head and questioning the handling of the crash site was shockingly ruptly (for those who didn't notice, *RU*ptly is apparently in the same vein as RT and sputnik where their Russian affiliation is no secret and their name is a nod towards their origins- and most of their western viewers never catch on to their Russian affiliation.

My reference would be the civil aviation thread, which is already many many pages deep, that pretty much chronicles the release of information. Note the ruptly watermarked photos in there and the video later on when people were concerned the evidence was being destroyed by "bulldozing" the field.


RUptly seems to be more of a news service provider than anything else:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruptly

Interesting, the screed on the DE WP page outside of a "Kritik" article item.
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruptly ( use google translate )
doesn't really fit WP standards.


Yes, a news service provider that exists to emphasize or downplay news in a way that best fits Russia's goals. It's nothing special, VOA and Radio Free are US equivalents. These propaganda outlets were instrumental during the cold war.
 
bgm
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:00 pm

dmg626 wrote:
treetreeseven wrote:
~175 people died as a knock-on effect of Trump's early re-election campaigning. Case closed.


They died because of an itchy trigger finger on the missile battery crew. Other planes flew that night, other missile batteries were in operation, the blame lies squarely on them.


But they wouldn't have been on high alert had Trump not decided to pursue this to distract from his impeachment. So yes, it is the Iranian's fault what happened, but Trump shares at least some of the blame.
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Dutchy
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:10 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Iran wasn't the one being aggressive, that was the US, which started with giving up the perfectly good and working Iran-deal. They haven't anything to gain by starting a real shooting war. If that were to start, it would have left Iran in ruins. But they had to react, so attacking US military installations in Iraq, with a warning so to minimize deaths, was a perfectly reasonable response, aimed at not escalating things.



Shooting rockets is being aggressive. Also the targets were not US military installations they were Iraqi. If Iran was so worried about not escalating they wouldn't have fired rockets, even if it was missing and not killing on purpose. Or being trigger happy when a commercial airliner flew overhead. That is the thing about terrorists they don't care who they kill and it's always the other person's fault. Your assertion that they get a pass since the US took out a murderer is alarming.


And how do you classify first breaking a deal with Iran, while Iran was obying the terms, and sending Iran into an economic downturn, and then the murder of one of their Generals? So yeah, I thought their response was quite a restraint. Or did you believe the US should get a pass just because it is the US?

As for the shooting down of the 737, that is an accident and yes they should have closed their airspace.
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Jouhou
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:19 pm

bgm wrote:
dmg626 wrote:
treetreeseven wrote:
~175 people died as a knock-on effect of Trump's early re-election campaigning. Case closed.


They died because of an itchy trigger finger on the missile battery crew. Other planes flew that night, other missile batteries were in operation, the blame lies squarely on them.


But they wouldn't have been on high alert had Trump not decided to pursue this to distract from his impeachment. So yes, it is the Iranian's fault what happened, but Trump shares at least some of the blame.


Americans who have not politically dug trenches on Trump's side understand that Trump's decisions have been destabilizing for the region and are more likely to damage US strategic interests than help them. On the other hand it's been such a chaos-inducing action that it's still possible for it to shake out to the US's benefit, but the situation created is too complex for anyone to predict.

Iran still should have at least closed the airspace from civilian use until enough time had passed for nerves to calm.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:32 pm

sevenair wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
IMO IR655 is why it's so shocking Iranian air defenses weren't more careful. It's not like they don't know how bad that would be for them.


Exactly. Hypocrites. They can no longer play this victim card they've been using for 30 years.


They couldn't play the "victim card" if they weren't, you know, victims. :sarcastic:

How does the fact that they've now accidentally shot down an airliner themselves make them hypocrites?

bgm wrote:
But they wouldn't have been on high alert had Trump not decided to pursue this to distract from his impeachment. So yes, it is the Iranian's fault what happened, but Trump shares at least some of the blame.


They were on high alert in expectation of an American retaliation to their own retaliation to American aggression. Endless retaliation in response to retaliation, just like Israel and Palestinians.
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seb146
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:05 pm

Jouhou wrote:
bgm wrote:
dmg626 wrote:

They died because of an itchy trigger finger on the missile battery crew. Other planes flew that night, other missile batteries were in operation, the blame lies squarely on them.


But they wouldn't have been on high alert had Trump not decided to pursue this to distract from his impeachment. So yes, it is the Iranian's fault what happened, but Trump shares at least some of the blame.


Americans who have not politically dug trenches on Trump's side understand that Trump's decisions have been destabilizing for the region and are more likely to damage US strategic interests than help them. On the other hand it's been such a chaos-inducing action that it's still possible for it to shake out to the US's benefit, but the situation created is too complex for anyone to predict.

Iran still should have at least closed the airspace from civilian use until enough time had passed for nerves to calm.


Without the assassination of Soleimani and the Iraqi military leaders near the Baghdad airport, we would not be discussing the downing of this jetliner. Iran did not just decide one day to fire missiles. They were firing missiles in retaliation for the assassination of their number two leader. Iran already stated a retaliatory strike would happen. We all knew it was coming.

Yes, closing air space could have prevented this. But so could not firing a missile at an Iranian leader.
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Jouhou
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 10:21 pm

seb146 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
bgm wrote:

But they wouldn't have been on high alert had Trump not decided to pursue this to distract from his impeachment. So yes, it is the Iranian's fault what happened, but Trump shares at least some of the blame.


Americans who have not politically dug trenches on Trump's side understand that Trump's decisions have been destabilizing for the region and are more likely to damage US strategic interests than help them. On the other hand it's been such a chaos-inducing action that it's still possible for it to shake out to the US's benefit, but the situation created is too complex for anyone to predict.

Iran still should have at least closed the airspace from civilian use until enough time had passed for nerves to calm.


Without the assassination of Soleimani and the Iraqi military leaders near the Baghdad airport, we would not be discussing the downing of this jetliner. Iran did not just decide one day to fire missiles. They were firing missiles in retaliation for the assassination of their number two leader. Iran already stated a retaliatory strike would happen. We all knew it was coming.

Yes, closing air space could have prevented this. But so could not firing a missile at an Iranian leader.


You live in the US too, you know as well as I do there's nothing we can do to prevent Trump being Trump either. Our system never built in a legal method of over-riding a president gone completely rogue and making decisions that aren't just endangering people in a far away region, but are threatening US interests as well. We can only hope Congress does something to control him.
 
A101
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:09 pm

bgm wrote:
dmg626 wrote:
treetreeseven wrote:
~175 people died as a knock-on effect of Trump's early re-election campaigning. Case closed.


They died because of an itchy trigger finger on the missile battery crew. Other planes flew that night, other missile batteries were in operation, the blame lies squarely on them.


But they wouldn't have been on high alert had Trump not decided to pursue this to distract from his impeachment. So yes, it is the Iranian's fault what happened, but Trump shares at least some of the blame.



Seems like a plot out of Canadian Bacon
 
anrec80
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:15 pm

Jouhou wrote:
Iran still should have at least closed the airspace from civilian use until enough time had passed for nerves to calm.


It’s more complex than that. In tragedies like this, there is never one reason to be singled out. Here are some bits of actually what went on in Iran that tragic morning:
https://nv.ua/world/countries/u-operato ... 63626.html

It’s a Ukrainian source, in Russian, Google Translate doesn’t take it, so I’ll quote a few things.

Iran’s air defense operator decided to launch a Boeing 737-800 missile, which he mistook for an enemy target, failing to contact the command.
Then, there are some details from Iran’s air defense chief general Amir Ali Hajizadeh.

Either a jamming system worked, or the network was busy, but he could not communicate. He had five seconds to make the decision. Unfortunately, he made the wrong decision and launched a missile at the target.


According to Hajizadeh, the Iranian military asked to stop air traffic during the missile strike on US military bases in Iraq, but this request was not fulfilled.


Apparently, this is largely a consequence of total mess and lack of organization in Iran. Iran definitely has to provide some tough answers here. In particular - how is it possible that civil aviation authorities ignore military? And secondly - what’s happening in communications in Iranian military? Is it that their communication systems are outdated? Dysfunctional? Not tested regularly? No regular periodic air defense trainings to ascertain that their air defenses work like Swiss clock? And if it’s not the case - how is it possible that their military leadership is unreachable during such period of time?

So now we are discovering some links in this chain of tragic events.
 
anrec80
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:19 pm

Jouhou wrote:
You live in the US too, you know as well as I do there's nothing we can do to prevent Trump being Trump either. Our system never built in a legal method of over-riding a president gone completely rogue and making decisions that aren't just endangering people in a far away region, but are threatening US interests as well.

We can only hope Congress does something to control him.


Together with that, Trump could have chosen his advisors better. This whole killing thing was Pompeo’s “brilliant” idea. And to be fair, Congress also approved him to take Secretary of State position.

And technically, current legislature generally prohibits US President to declare a war on another nation, this is something that Congress does. But lately Presidents ignore this requirement - it was the case with Libya; Trump’s missile launches at Syria, now this killing.
 
anrec80
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:23 pm

seb146 wrote:
Yes, closing air space could have prevented this. But so could not firing a missile at an Iranian leader.


On this one - devil is in the details (above post). Together with that, there is certainly a share of American fault in this mess too. They are the ones who started it.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:38 pm

With all the stories we hear on commutation restrictions in Iran, the speed at which videos were released surprised me. Good to know even in the restricted regimes people will figure out to communicate with outside world. Iran probably one of the largest spender on network monitoring in the world. $$$Millions wasted.

BTW, Twitter banned the account which posted first shoot down video. Not sure Iran requested to block the account or there were unauthorized attempts to gain access which resulted in a ban.
 
889091
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:38 pm

What's to prevent this terrible accident from recurring? Have adequate safety measures been implemented since the accidental shoot-down occurred? If not, why is IKA still open to commercial traffic?
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:40 pm

The dysfunction, ineptitude, corruption of the Iranian regime is coming out clear here. That's why you can't trust these people with nuclear weapons.
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Jouhou
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:53 pm

anrec80 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Iran still should have at least closed the airspace from civilian use until enough time had passed for nerves to calm.


It’s more complex than that. In tragedies like this, there is never one reason to be singled out. Here are some bits of actually what went on in Iran that tragic morning:
https://nv.ua/world/countries/u-operato ... 63626.html

It’s a Ukrainian source, in Russian, Google Translate doesn’t take it, so I’ll quote a few things.

Iran’s air defense operator decided to launch a Boeing 737-800 missile, which he mistook for an enemy target, failing to contact the command.
Then, there are some details from Iran’s air defense chief general Amir Ali Hajizadeh.

Either a jamming system worked, or the network was busy, but he could not communicate. He had five seconds to make the decision. Unfortunately, he made the wrong decision and launched a missile at the target.


According to Hajizadeh, the Iranian military asked to stop air traffic during the missile strike on US military bases in Iraq, but this request was not fulfilled.


Apparently, this is largely a consequence of total mess and lack of organization in Iran. Iran definitely has to provide some tough answers here. In particular - how is it possible that civil aviation authorities ignore military? And secondly - what’s happening in communications in Iranian military? Is it that their communication systems are outdated? Dysfunctional? Not tested regularly? No regular periodic air defense trainings to ascertain that their air defenses work like Swiss clock? And if it’s not the case - how is it possible that their military leadership is unreachable during such period of time?

So now we are discovering some links in this chain of tragic events.



Care to answer my original question? I'm serious, was there some kind of Russia-Iran rift the western media never picked up on that Russian speakers might know of? Is there some kind of Ukraine related situation that is driving Russian actions?

I only know of some energy exploration and extraction related disputes between Russia and Iran in recent history.

Also it was the IRGC right? They're separate from the actual Iranian military, I'd expect communication issues.
 
A101
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:00 am

anrec80 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
Yes, closing air space could have prevented this. But so could not firing a missile at an Iranian leader.


On this one - devil is in the details (above post). Together with that, there is certainly a share of American fault in this mess too. They are the ones who started it.



Does that also mean that the US is responsible for the Soviets shooting down KAL 007 because they had a SIGINT mission nearby, it was the Iranian military reasonability to correctly identify the target before taking defensive measures. This mistake is purely on Iran's shoulders, just as the incident with the USS Vincennes that shot down Iran Air Flight 655 in 88. there is always the human factor in all these incidents but ultimately the shooter has to correctly identify the target.
 
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stl07
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:16 am

dmg626 wrote:
treetreeseven wrote:
~175 people died as a knock-on effect of Trump's early re-election campaigning. Case closed.


They died because of an itchy trigger finger on the missile battery crew. Other planes flew that night, other missile batteries were in operation, the blame lies squarely on them.

Nope, Anyone with half a brain knows that Iran isn't the most rational when it comes to war, so instigating them despite knowing this means you have at least partial responsibility.
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sonicruiser
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:25 am

treetreeseven wrote:
~175 people died as a knock-on effect of Trump's early re-election campaigning. Case closed.


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