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Jouhou
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:33 pm

anrec80 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
We actually can do something. Call your Representative. Call your Senator. Three phone calls. Once call to your House member, two to your Senators. Tell them to allow a fair and free testimony. Russia and Republicans have blocked calls to Congress but We The People WILL NOT BE SILENCED!!!


Do you really think someone cares about those calls? If the call will promise to the House member or a senator a few million donation or you are representing a union or another organization that can deliver him a significant number of votes, then you can count on more or less specific conversation. Otherwise - they have a special garbage bin for this kind of calls.



They actually tally the calls/emails/letters on non-partisan issues. The thing is, almost everything is a partisan issue these days and the way Congress handles issues is frequently on party lines.

Actual letters count the most, phone calls next, and emails the least.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:49 am

Just watched this documentary on IR655 because of this incident: https://youtu.be/Onk_wI3ZVME

The captain of the USS Vincennes at the time is a real scum bag from what I can tell. I kind of knew the story but I didn't realize how our of line that captain was behaving and still got rewarded rather than punished.

Whatever happened that got PS752 shot down, I hope the Iranians investigate it more immediately and thoroughly than we did with our mistake. If there were any bad decisions made like what the captain of the Vincennes made they should be disciplined.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:10 am

bristolflyer1 wrote:
DLFreebird - the Twitter comment came from Duchy near the beginning of the thread, perhaps he/she can give you a link.

TU204 - thanks that's very helpful. An accident is slightly more plausible if the operator couldn't see outside. I have the exact same question as you about what could be seen on the monitor. I'm still struggling to understand how a 20ft missile and 140ft plane could be confused. They are not even the same shape!


Not that it would ever see the light of day, but do these missile firing systems record what was on their screen/system before a launch??
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Mon Jan 13, 2020 6:21 am

More embarrassment for the Iranian Leaders:

No Technical Problem, No Flight Path Deviation: Ukraine Airlines Vindicated In Iran Tragedy

Jan 12, 2020, 05:16am
https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... y-missile/

“There was no deviation from flight path despite someone wants to imply this,” Ukraine Airlines VP Operations Ihor Sosnovsky told a briefing in Kiev.

“The plane was flying in its normal direction without any error and everybody was doing their job correctly,” Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh of the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on state television. “If there was a mistake, it was made by one of our members.”
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
tu204
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:10 am

DIRECTFLT wrote:
bristolflyer1 wrote:
DLFreebird - the Twitter comment came from Duchy near the beginning of the thread, perhaps he/she can give you a link.

TU204 - thanks that's very helpful. An accident is slightly more plausible if the operator couldn't see outside. I have the exact same question as you about what could be seen on the monitor. I'm still struggling to understand how a 20ft missile and 140ft plane could be confused. They are not even the same shape!


Not that it would ever see the light of day, but do these missile firing systems record what was on their screen/system before a launch??


Definately yes. From what I understood pretty detailed too, with "raw" data that wouldn't be even displayed on your screen. If the Tor is a digital system, I am sure it would have the same feature.

That was kinda the reason I was allowed inside, not live fire, but some block was replaced and they were checking calibration of the radar by having something fly around and analysed data afterwards.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:52 am

DIRECTFLT wrote:
More embarrassment for the Iranian Leaders:

No Technical Problem, No Flight Path Deviation: Ukraine Airlines Vindicated In Iran Tragedy

Jan 12, 2020, 05:16am
https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... y-missile/

“There was no deviation from flight path despite someone wants to imply this,” Ukraine Airlines VP Operations Ihor Sosnovsky told a briefing in Kiev.

“The plane was flying in its normal direction without any error and everybody was doing their job correctly,” Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh of the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on state television. “If there was a mistake, it was made by one of our members.”


That's actually an improvement over the handling of IR655. By the time it was discovered the USS Vincennes crew lied about the downwards direction the aircraft was coming at them from, the original investigation had already passed. It seems to be why they completely escaped any kind of disciplinary action.
 
WIederling
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:23 am

Jouhou wrote:
Just watched this documentary on IR655 because of this incident: https://youtu.be/Onk_wI3ZVME

The captain of the USS Vincennes at the time is a real scum bag from what I can tell. I kind of knew the story but I didn't realize how our of line that captain was behaving and still got rewarded rather than punished.

Whatever happened that got PS752 shot down, I hope the Iranians investigate it more immediately and thoroughly than we did with our mistake. If there were any bad decisions made like what the captain of the Vincennes made they should be disciplined.


Ever seen "The Bedford Incident"? ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bedford_Incident )

The portrayed atmosphere of over the top hysterics while standing in oversized boots seem to be a common denominator.
IMU it also enabled the recent shipping accidents caused by US Navy ships.
Murphy is an optimist
 
bristolflyer1
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Mon Jan 13, 2020 1:12 pm

TU24: [the radar would have been] "From what I understood pretty detailed too, with "raw" data that wouldn't be even displayed on your screen."

I'm sorry for the tin hat folks, but I'm just not buying it that the operator couldn't ID the aircraft. Also they don't seem to have waited the 10 seconds claimed (it was pinging every 6) to get authorisation.

I'm curious as to what the 'communications jammings' were, and who exactly was doing the jamming. No one seems to be discussing this jamming.

Could there have been a cyber attack to change the radar input, plus someone put communications down?

I bet we will be told it was a lone operative, and then they will be executed, and no one outside Iran will ever get to speak with them. In other words, a patsy.

I guess it's brings us full circle to Jouhou's original post about the Russians.... or maybe it was someone else.... or it just really was a simple mistake. Either way Iran now looks very stupid and their political isolation has increased.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:25 pm

So what happened to all the calm and content tough talk of Iranian leaders? Trump says a lot of things. Just because he said 52 sites including cultural sites will be attacked, Iran shouldn't be deploying untrained batteries in a rush and start shooting from their hip.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:56 pm

bristolflyer1 wrote:
Why did Iran do a sudden U-turn to end hostilities, (oh OK, lets call it even then and stop fighting), does that happen often when war has just started, I wonder?


They wanted to send a statement to the US on illegal assassinations. It had to be limited so as to prevent backlash from Trump. It was not a war, nor was it a U-turn. That part went exactly as planned.

bristolflyer1 wrote:
Why did Iran do a sudden U-turn on being adamant that the plane wasn’t hit by one of their missiles? They must surely have known that with the international community inspecting the plane, a missile hit would quickly be uncovered. (I think their lack of preservation of the scene was due to incompetence, plus the pieces of the plane were already being reassembled in an indoor hangar).


It is important to remember that Iran is not an open western democracy. The bureaucracy is astounding. The military likely doesn't speak very openly with other arms of the state. They keep their ongoings closely guarded secrets. One end of the military probably doesn't know what the other is doing.

As a person who works in places like this all the time, the initial denial was completely expected. There was an internal struggle that had to be resolved first.

What many westerners (and Americans in particular)
often make the mistake of doing, is assuming these places are always well organised, centrally controlled countries. There were similar accusations towards Russia/Putin after MH17. Reality is far from it. You have way too many individuals who act and operate independently. Small self-declared lords who carefully guard their small dominions, such as a military base or something more menial like the stubborn immigration workers at the airport in Delhi. It's part of why corruption is so big in many of the same countries.

At the end of the day, all it took was one person to screw it up. Or maybe it was a deliberate order right from the top or a rogue base commander or a scared and tired SAM operator under the threat of punishment for not acting. The investigation will have to uncover that.
 
bristolflyer1
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Mon Jan 13, 2020 7:54 pm

It's now a Whodunnit: SORRY FOR LONG POST, AUTOMATIC PAGE TRANSLATE DOESN’T WORK SO I DID IT ALL MANUALLY, THE LINK IS IN RUSSIAN.

https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/0 ... s-granatoy

*******It essentially says no one could confuse a passenger plane with a cruise missile under any circumstances.*******************

Andrei Gorbachevsky explains how the Iranian air defense could have made such a mistake.

The flight of Ukrainian Airlines from Tehran was regular. All scheduled flights in the country's air defense system are recorded. The SAM commander compares the received mark of the target with marks that should go on schedule. At a certain time, the plane takes off from the airport - and the commander of the SAM system knows: this is such a flight.

- The Ukrainian plane took off with a delay of about an hour. “It doesn’t matter, the message to the commander should have been received anyway.” But the point is not even in the schedule. The plane took off from a civilian airfield and went along a standard highway. A passenger plane cannot fly anyhow, it goes along a dedicated corridor.

The commander of the air defense system’s crew must see that the target is in the corridor allocated for passenger aircraft. This alone should show him: before him is not some American drone, but a civilian airliner.

Next - the plane took off. At a certain height, he gains a certain speed. The crew commander immediately correlates: if the target goes at such a height and at such a speed, then it is most likely civilian.

- In addition, transponders are on passenger planes. - Mandatory. And on the air defense system is a state recognition system - such a "requestor" of data from this transponder. And she had to recognize the plane as a civilian. But Iran may have its own state recognition system, different from the standard NATO one. That is, Iran could create for itself a special system that does not coincide in frequency with NATO. - What for? - So that the enemy could not interfere with their system with interference. –

Just one of the versions is that they did not recognize the passenger plane due to interference. It turns out that there could be no interference.

- I can’t say exactly what state recognition system is in Iran. But, for example, in Russia such a system for military aircraft differs from NATO. Therefore, in addition to our own system, we put a second one, which reads the data of civilian aircraft. So it was accepted back in the Soviet Union, when we did everything differently than in NATO. And what was there with the state recognition system when we delivered Tor air defense systems to Iran? The Iranians could well put some of their own. - But you have already mentioned other degrees of protection, in addition to the state recognition system. - That's right. Therefore, I can only repeat that the mistake is gross. Incredible.

- Just one of the versions is that they did not recognize the passenger plane due to interference. It turns out that there could be no interference? - I can’t say exactly what state recognition system is in Iran. But, for example, in Russia such a system for military aircraft differs from NATO. Therefore, in addition to our own system, we put a second one, which reads the data of civilian aircraft. So it was accepted back in the Soviet Union, when we did everything differently than in NATO. And what was there with the state recognition system when we delivered Tor air defense systems to Iran? The Iranians could well put some of their own.

- But you have already mentioned other degrees of protection, in addition to the state recognition system.

- That's right. Therefore, I can only repeat that the mistake is gross. Incredible.

- And yet, since they still haven’t fired on each aircraft, the Iranians have some kind of system. Why didn’t she block the launch of the rocket? - This may indicate some kind of malfunction. This means that the Iranians do not have service personnel who would monitor the status of all air defense systems. - But there are probably Russian instructors there too? - How do Russian instructors work - you saw it when the Syrians shot down the IL-20. It was also a gross mistake, although still less gross than in this case. - Iran claims that the passenger Boeing was mistaken for a US cruise missile. Can they be mixed up at all?

- No one could confuse a passenger plane with a cruise missile under any circumstances. Unless it was just a monkey with a grenade, but a drunk monkey with a grenade. This means that Iran no longer knows what to lie.

At the Tor air defense system, as I told you last time, there are two locators. One is a panoramic one that rotates continuously and captures everything that flies around. When the plane took off from the airfield, the survey locator saw it in twenty seconds. And then all the while the plane flew, all six minutes, on the screen of the surveillance radar was the track. That is, from the very beginning of the flight it was clear where the target flew from. “Did they see the cruise missile launched from a civilian airfield?”

- Of course. While only the survey locator was working, one would still think that something military was flying next to a civilian plane. But then the missile guidance locator turns on. The missile is aimed at the target by a very narrow beam, of the order of one degree wide. He distinguishes everything so well that there can already be no mistake. The probability that not only a civilian aircraft, but also something else military will fall into this beam is zero.
 
tu204
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Mon Jan 13, 2020 9:18 pm

bristolflyer1 wrote:
TU24: [the radar would have been] "From what I understood pretty detailed too, with "raw" data that wouldn't be even displayed on your screen."

I'm sorry for the tin hat folks, but I'm just not buying it that the operator couldn't ID the aircraft. Also they don't seem to have waited the 10 seconds claimed (it was pinging every 6) to get authorisation.

I'm curious as to what the 'communications jammings' were, and who exactly was doing the jamming. No one seems to be discussing this jamming.

Could there have been a cyber attack to change the radar input, plus someone put communications down?


Sorry, could you please clarify what you don't agree with in my post? I was asked if the operator's station records readings (like a black box), and I said "yes", but more like QAR where you have a lot more parameters monitored, with many of them not being displayed to the operator. For example you can "filter" what you see on the ops screen. By size, speed, altitude; when you turn all "filters" off, you get a lot of of false targets (birds, power lines, etc). So the data recorder includes everything the radar sees, not just what the operator selects to view.

Again will point out this was a different system and I have no clue how they store the data. May be as simple as a "format c:\" command and it's gone.
Keep in mind the purpose of the recordings isn't to find out who's ass to roast, but for troubleshooting purposes.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:16 am

bristolflyer1 wrote:
TU24: [the radar would have been] "From what I understood pretty detailed too, with "raw" data that wouldn't be even displayed on your screen."

I'm sorry for the tin hat folks, but I'm just not buying it that the operator couldn't ID the aircraft. Also they don't seem to have waited the 10 seconds claimed (it was pinging every 6) to get authorisation.

I'm curious as to what the 'communications jammings' were, and who exactly was doing the jamming. No one seems to be discussing this jamming.

Could there have been a cyber attack to change the radar input, plus someone put communications down?

I bet we will be told it was a lone operative, and then they will be executed, and no one outside Iran will ever get to speak with them. In other words, a patsy.

I guess it's brings us full circle to Jouhou's original post about the Russians.... or maybe it was someone else.... or it just really was a simple mistake. Either way Iran now looks very stupid and their political isolation has increased.


You can't cyber attack things that aren't connected to the internet. I'd think the Russians who designed the system are smarter than to leave essential systems internet connected.
 
tu204
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:59 am

Jouhou wrote:
bristolflyer1 wrote:
TU24: [the radar would have been] "From what I understood pretty detailed too, with "raw" data that wouldn't be even displayed on your screen."

I'm sorry for the tin hat folks, but I'm just not buying it that the operator couldn't ID the aircraft. Also they don't seem to have waited the 10 seconds claimed (it was pinging every 6) to get authorisation.

I'm curious as to what the 'communications jammings' were, and who exactly was doing the jamming. No one seems to be discussing this jamming.

Could there have been a cyber attack to change the radar input, plus someone put communications down?

I bet we will be told it was a lone operative, and then they will be executed, and no one outside Iran will ever get to speak with them. In other words, a patsy.

I guess it's brings us full circle to Jouhou's original post about the Russians.... or maybe it was someone else.... or it just really was a simple mistake. Either way Iran now looks very stupid and their political isolation has increased.


You can't cyber attack things that aren't connected to the internet. I'd think the Russians who designed the system are smarter than to leave essential systems internet connected.


Not internet per se, but newer Russian air defence systems are designed to work as standalone or as a group (S-300, Tor, Pantsir) where you get long, medium and short range air defence all in one.
However obviously they don't use the internet but an internal system and are connected either through physical cables or short range radio signal (assume it's kinda like WiFi).
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Political discussion of PS752 Tragedy

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:12 am

tu204 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
bristolflyer1 wrote:
TU24: [the radar would have been] "From what I understood pretty detailed too, with "raw" data that wouldn't be even displayed on your screen."

I'm sorry for the tin hat folks, but I'm just not buying it that the operator couldn't ID the aircraft. Also they don't seem to have waited the 10 seconds claimed (it was pinging every 6) to get authorisation.

I'm curious as to what the 'communications jammings' were, and who exactly was doing the jamming. No one seems to be discussing this jamming.

Could there have been a cyber attack to change the radar input, plus someone put communications down?

I bet we will be told it was a lone operative, and then they will be executed, and no one outside Iran will ever get to speak with them. In other words, a patsy.

I guess it's brings us full circle to Jouhou's original post about the Russians.... or maybe it was someone else.... or it just really was a simple mistake. Either way Iran now looks very stupid and their political isolation has increased.


You can't cyber attack things that aren't connected to the internet. I'd think the Russians who designed the system are smarter than to leave essential systems internet connected.


Not internet per se, but newer Russian air defence systems are designed to work as standalone or as a group (S-300, Tor, Pantsir) where you get long, medium and short range air defence all in one.
However obviously they don't use the internet but an internal system and are connected either through physical cables or short range radio signal (assume it's kinda like WiFi).


Right, and I can imagine the parts that communicate between systems are isolated from anything that doesn't need to be connected to the networked components.

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