ArchGuy1
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Storms Across the United States A Few Days Ago

Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:58 am

About three days ago, storms across the United States led to the deaths of 11 people as strong winds hit the South and snow and ice but the Great Plains and the Midwest. At least seven tornadoes were confirmed in Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. The winds in the town of Benton, Louisiana were so strong that they peeled the roof off an entire wing of a middle school. Violent thunderstorms got underway in Texas and Oklahoma as the storm moved to the east and northeast. Wind speeds as high as 80 mph were recorded in Texas and Mississippi. The severe thunderstorms also hit Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama, and the western Carolinas. Drowned trees and power lines, along with damaged homes were seen across the South after the storm passed. Chicago was dealing with ice and snow and earnings were issued about 20 foot high waves on the lake shore of Chicago. Freezing rain in the northern part of Illinois led to power outages for more than 5,000 structures. Other parts of the region saw snow including a one inch coat of dusting on the streets of Kansas and whiteout conditions in Iowa as 4 inches of snow fell in Des Moines. Much sunnier weather with high 20 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit above average were seen east of the Mississippi River. New York City saw a high of 67 degrees and Washington, D.C. saw a high of 70 degrees. It was indeed a crazy storm that saw both severe storms and snow in Dallas, Texas where I live.
https://www.npr.org/2020/01/11/79559189 ... ast-9-dead
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Storms Across the United States A Few Days Ago

Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:00 am

It was definitely 67 north of NYC too. North of Boston.
 
NIKV69
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Re: Storms Across the United States A Few Days Ago

Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:37 am

Jouhou wrote:
It was definitely 67 north of NYC too. North of Boston.


Weather in the Northeast is nuts. They are saying chance of snow this Sat? A week after high 60s.
Nikon from day one, Nikon till I die.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Storms Across the United States A Few Days Ago

Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:42 am

NIKV69 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
It was definitely 67 north of NYC too. North of Boston.


Weather in the Northeast is nuts. They are saying chance of snow this Sat? A week after high 60s.


It snowed today/monday (technically yesterday, it's 3:41 am here, I'm a night shifter) after being 67 on Sunday.
 
stratosphere
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Re: Storms Across the United States A Few Days Ago

Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:10 pm

ArchGuy1 wrote:
About three days ago, storms across the United States led to the deaths of 11 people as strong winds hit the South and snow and ice but the Great Plains and the Midwest. At least seven tornadoes were confirmed in Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. The winds in the town of Benton, Louisiana were so strong that they peeled the roof off an entire wing of a middle school. Violent thunderstorms got underway in Texas and Oklahoma as the storm moved to the east and northeast. Wind speeds as high as 80 mph were recorded in Texas and Mississippi. The severe thunderstorms also hit Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama, and the western Carolinas. Drowned trees and power lines, along with damaged homes were seen across the South after the storm passed. Chicago was dealing with ice and snow and earnings were issued about 20 foot high waves on the lake shore of Chicago. Freezing rain in the northern part of Illinois led to power outages for more than 5,000 structures. Other parts of the region saw snow including a one inch coat of dusting on the streets of Kansas and whiteout conditions in Iowa as 4 inches of snow fell in Des Moines. Much sunnier weather with high 20 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit above average were seen east of the Mississippi River. New York City saw a high of 67 degrees and Washington, D.C. saw a high of 70 degrees. It was indeed a crazy storm that saw both severe storms and snow in Dallas, Texas where I live.
https://www.npr.org/2020/01/11/79559189 ... ast-9-dead


You forgot Mississippi we had 2 tornadoes an EF-1 and an EF-2. The EF-1 path is in yellow and literally stopped before it hit my house then the EF-2 in red was just north of me and did a huge amount of damage. This is in and around the Hernando area in DeSoto county just south of Memphis.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mi ... wGYZKBZwhw
 
tommy1808
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Re: Storms Across the United States A Few Days Ago

Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:35 pm

But there is no climate change........!
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Storms Across the United States A Few Days Ago

Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:38 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
Weather in the Northeast is nuts. They are saying chance of snow this Sat? A week after high 60s.

It's called weather fronts. There are ridges and troughs.
Image
What the NE had this past few days was a ridge: a region where moist, warm air from the south was moving north. You're getting a chance of snow because there's likely a low moving through (a trough) in which cold air is brought from the north. Cold air is heavier than warm air, so that warm air will rise, condense, and since it'll be in cold air, precipitate as snow, sleet, or freezing rain.

When you see a place getting way colder than average temperatures, it's likely due to a trough combined with an unusually strong pressure system (often a low). Since the air is confined by the jet stream, it doesn't spread and, just like during the summer you get a heat dome, in the winter you get a "cold" dome.

It's only nuts if it can't be explained. 8-)
Last edited by einsteinboricua on Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Storms Across the United States A Few Days Ago

Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:40 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
But there is no climate change........!

While I support the notion of climate change, THIS is short term weather and as such cannot be linked to climate change.

This rhetoric is what cheapens the argument, in the same manner that deniers claim that snow in winter is evidence that there is no climate change.

Give me many years' worth of data showing unusually strong storms around this time of year affecting the same area and THEN we can discuss about whether it's climate change.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
tommy1808
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Re: Storms Across the United States A Few Days Ago

Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:04 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Give me many years' worth of data showing unusually strong storms around this time of year affecting the same area and THEN we can discuss about whether it's climate change.


So, you complain the situation is about weather, and not climate, to then demand to see very specific weather data before you allow seeing this as a data point towards validating climate change models?
It's a weather extreme, it isn't relevant if that specific weather phenomenon is more frequent, but if extreme weather is more frequent. Models predict we see more frequent extreme weather....the counter just went up.

Heck we life in times where seemingly unusual weather in fact not being unusual gets media coverage.....

I do think everyone understands this isn't the weather event that suddenly takes climate change to 6 sigma, but maybe a data point that nudges sigma up a tiny bit from where it was a week ago.

Best regards
Thomas
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Storms Across the United States A Few Days Ago

Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:29 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
So, you complain the situation is about weather, and not climate, to then demand to see very specific weather data before you allow seeing this as a data point towards validating climate change models?

Weather is short-term conditions. The fact that it rained today or we had heavy rains this week says nothing about the climate.

Climate is long-term conditions. The fact that we've had several consecutive years ranking among the top 10 warmest years on record says something about the climate. When compared to all the years we've been recording, that gives us an idea of overall climate.

So yes. I demand to see more years worth of data before I say that this parade of storms is due to climate change.

The fact remains that during winter time, the jetstream stays to the north and it's the subtropical jetstream which drives weather events in the southern part of the United States. Severe weather climatology pinpoints the southern states as the ones prone to severe weather outbreaks during the winter time, with the hazard area moving north as winter gives way to spring and summer before returning south during the fall and winter.

tommy1808 wrote:
but maybe a data point that nudges sigma up a tiny bit from where it was a week ago
If you know anything about statistics is that a couple of blips above an average is not indicative of anything. Many blips above or below the average means there's increasing variance. And obviously, if the trend is moving one way, it's cause for concern. Just like a 1 day rally or selloff in the stock market does not indicate any major events, it's when they're consecutive (or too happening too close to each other) that's a cause of concern and if the overall trend shifts, then it IS indicative of something major in the works. That's why you need multiple data points that are related.

A category 4 hurricane is not unheard of. A season consisting solely of major hurricanes is reason for concern. Multiple hurricane seasons (perhaps consecutively) with just major hurricanes: yes, there's something there.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
ArchGuy1
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More Storms Across the United States

Sat Jan 18, 2020 3:21 am

Storms across the United States in the past couple days have led to a blast of snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the country with 1,600 flights cancelled in the Upper Midwest and thousands of travelers stranded. 118 million people across the country were under some form of winter storm watch, warning, or advisory with significant snow accumulations likely in parts of Minnesota, northern Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and the interior Northeast. Motorists in Minnesota were seeing the early impacts of the snow Friday with 120 car crashes and 19 people injured. Locally heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected for portions of the Central Plains northeast through the Upper Midwest, resulting in difficult travel conditions. The highest snowfall totals could be seen in the Midwest with Minnesota, parts of Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, and northern New England seeing 8 to 12 inches of snow with high winds causing whiteout conditions. The Rocky Mountains could see heavy snow with wind gusts up to 75 mph in the High Plains. Freezing rain is possible in portions of the Southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. These icy conditions will make travel a problem in Oklahoma City, St.Louis, and Kansas City with accumulating ice possibly knocking down trees and power lines causing power outages. Additional snow and ice is possible into Sunday for interior portions of the Northeast and New England with the coastal regions seeing snow changing over to rain. New York City and Boston will get a mix of snow and rain with 2 to 4 inches of snow possible in both cities. There snow will changeover to rain in the evening in both cities with overnight rain. Interior portions of the Northeast will see more snow with 8 to 12 inches in Upstate New York and 6 inches in northern Maine. It is a crazy storm and follows another storm just a week earlier.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/17/weather/ ... index.html
 
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seb146
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Re: More Storms Across the United States

Sat Jan 18, 2020 5:04 am

It has snowed every year since at least 2000 in the lower elevations of the Pacific Northwest. And everyone freaks out every single time. The past two winters, it has snowed here on the ocean. And everyone freaks out.

We should be prepared for bad weather. I know. We just had a big storm blow through here Tuesday night and Wednesday (Jan 15). Wednesday afternoon, NWS issued a severe thunderstorm alert and a severe weather alert for possible water spouts off the coast. I have not seen that before. Crazy but what can we do besides stock up on water, canned goods, and candles!

Our only scheduled flight did leave just a little behind schedule but before the severe weather alert. It must have been a light load because I could see it heading out.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!

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