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Jouhou
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Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:52 am

Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

In December an outbreak of viral pneumonia was detected in Wuhan, China. The cases all originate at a seafood market. It has since been identified as a betacoronavirus showing somewhere between 70-90% genetic similarity with the SARS coronavirus. Airports have stepped up screening for fever and illness on passengers coming from Wuhan. People rushed out to buy n95 masks in Hong Kong.

Recent updates to the situation include the first death of an infected patient (6 patients remain in serious condition), and the first detection of the virus outside of China has been found in Thailand (I'm not sure if they were detected as a result of airport screening from these poor translations from Thai I've been reading but I think they might have been) in a tourist from Wuhan, and the virus has been named by the WHO as 2019-nCoV (not much of a name, I'll still think of it as the Wuhan coronavirus).

China keeps reporting the virus is not being transmitted from person to person, but there's reason to be skeptical. China is not always forthcoming about dangerous outbreaks within their borders.


Edit: I would also advise anyone flying through the East Asian - South East Asian region to get a flu shot if you haven't. Most of the adult travelers being quarantined at the airports are being found to be infected with influenza. With the likely increase in scale of the airport screenings following the discovery of the virus in Thailand it'd be a good step for avoiding quarantine.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:32 am

Jouhou wrote:
Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

I was also surprised that there is no discussion about this topic. Let’s hope this will not become a second SARS-event.
 
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SQ22
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:37 am

Jouhou wrote:
Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

In December an outbreak of viral pneumonia was detected in Wuhan, China. The cases all originate at a seafood market. It has since been identified as a betacoronavirus showing somewhere between 70-90% genetic similarity with the SARS coronavirus. Airports have stepped up screening for fever and illness on passengers coming from Wuhan. People rushed out to buy n95 masks in Hong Kong.

Recent updates to the situation include the first death of an infected patient (6 patients remain in serious condition), and the first detection of the virus outside of China has been found in Thailand (I'm not sure if they were detected as a result of airport screening from these poor translations from Thai I've been reading but I think they might have been) in a tourist from Wuhan, and the virus has been named by the WHO as 2019-nCoV (not much of a name, I'll still think of it as the Wuhan coronavirus).

China keeps reporting the virus is not being transmitted from person to person, but there's reason to be skeptical. China is not always forthcoming about dangerous outbreaks within their borders.


Edit: I would also advise anyone flying through the East Asian - South East Asian region to get a flu shot if you haven't. Most of the adult travelers being quarantined at the airports are being found to be infected with influenza. With the likely increase in scale of the airport screenings following the discovery of the virus in Thailand it'd be a good step for avoiding quarantine.


Please remember to provide a source when stating facts. Thanks.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:52 am

SQ22 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

In December an outbreak of viral pneumonia was detected in Wuhan, China. The cases all originate at a seafood market. It has since been identified as a betacoronavirus showing somewhere between 70-90% genetic similarity with the SARS coronavirus. Airports have stepped up screening for fever and illness on passengers coming from Wuhan. People rushed out to buy n95 masks in Hong Kong.

Recent updates to the situation include the first death of an infected patient (6 patients remain in serious condition), and the first detection of the virus outside of China has been found in Thailand (I'm not sure if they were detected as a result of airport screening from these poor translations from Thai I've been reading but I think they might have been) in a tourist from Wuhan, and the virus has been named by the WHO as 2019-nCoV (not much of a name, I'll still think of it as the Wuhan coronavirus).

China keeps reporting the virus is not being transmitted from person to person, but there's reason to be skeptical. China is not always forthcoming about dangerous outbreaks within their borders.


Edit: I would also advise anyone flying through the East Asian - South East Asian region to get a flu shot if you haven't. Most of the adult travelers being quarantined at the airports are being found to be infected with influenza. With the likely increase in scale of the airport screenings following the discovery of the virus in Thailand it'd be a good step for avoiding quarantine.


Please remember to provide a source when stating facts. Thanks.


Hard to do when I'm covering news I've been watching for a couple of weeks that has trickled out in small tidbits, I guess WHO summarizes the basic info. https://www.who.int/csr/don/12-january- ... -china/en/

Article about the infected person in Thailand http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspect ... eler-china
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:51 pm

Jouhou wrote:
Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

Only when a non-first world disease impacts a first world country will it become news and action will be taken.

We saw it with Ebola.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:55 pm

I haven't heard anything about this yet, and I've been paying a bit more attention to these types of things this year due to recent personal events. Thanks for sharing.

einsteinboricua wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

Only when a non-first world disease impacts a first world country will it become news and action will be taken.

We saw it with Ebola.


Sadly, this is probably why I haven't heard anything.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:06 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

Only when a non-first world disease impacts a first world country will it become news and action will be taken.

We saw it with Ebola.


It's actually been huge news for anyone following infectious disease news. Also people in Singapore and Hong Kong who are pretty worried about it.

Thing about coronaviruses there's still no vaccine for them. It'd be more like SARS than Ebola, considering its closely related to SARS.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:12 pm

Jouhou wrote:
It's actually been huge news for anyone following infectious disease news.

Which is likely a fraction of the population.

The media also has a responsibility to not stoke fear. They failed miserably at this with the Ebola outbreak in 2014.

Until we see a case enter the developed world, don't expect much attention. Maybe news in Singapore and Hong Kong are covering it, but then again, odds are their news studios are not sensationalists who are after ratings.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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casinterest
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:22 pm

It is troubling that quite a few are sick, but i don't see this as a large outbreak at this point. It is a scary one, but Human -to Human seems sporadic at best as they track the incidence amongst families.

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0114 ... s-warning/

Today, the WHO said there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the new virus in China within families, and it is possible there could be a wider outbreak.

"From the information that we have it is possible that there is limited human-to-human transmission, potentially among families, but it is very clear right now that we have no sustained human-to-human transmission," said Maria Van Kerkhove, acting head of WHO's emerging diseases unit.

The WHO is however preparing for the possibility that there could be a wider outbreak, she told a Geneva news briefing. "It is still early days, we don't have a clear clinical picture."
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:27 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
It's actually been huge news for anyone following infectious disease news.

Which is likely a fraction of the population.

The media also has a responsibility to not stoke fear. They failed miserably at this with the Ebola outbreak in 2014.

Until we see a case enter the developed world, don't expect much attention. Maybe news in Singapore and Hong Kong are covering it, but then again, odds are their news studios are not sensationalists who are after ratings.


It's also the impact on aviation that will make it bigger news of new people are found infected. Like SARS, the only way of dealing with it is containing it's spread. If more cases are found, expect screenings at all international airports. Ebola is deadly but not highly infectious, and the countries effected don't have a lot of international travelers. There is also now a vaccine.

A SARS like coronavirus causes respiratory infections that have a great deal of potential to spread as readily as other respiratory diseases.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:18 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
Until we see a case enter the developed world, don't expect much attention. Maybe news in Singapore and Hong Kong are covering it, but then again, odds are their news studios are not sensationalists who are after ratings.


HK media are definitely covering things, with the number of actual suspected cases in HK being higher than Wuhan itself.

I wouldn't say HK media are not sensationalist, though. The top two Chinese newspapers (on opposite side of political spectrum) aka Apple Daily and Oriental Daily are VERY sensationalist. You can't blame HKers for worrying about another SARS, though, especially after the long cover-up by mainland government back then. Hack, even yesterday, a few HK TV station had their reporters detained and questioned near the "epicenter" hospital in Wuhan (And yes, it include the ultra pro-China TVB).

With Chunyun coming up, if the virus is worse than current reports, things can get really messy quickly.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:30 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
Until we see a case enter the developed world, don't expect much attention. Maybe news in Singapore and Hong Kong are covering it, but then again, odds are their news studios are not sensationalists who are after ratings.


HK media are definitely covering things, with the number of actual suspected cases in HK being higher than Wuhan itself.

I wouldn't say HK media are not sensationalist, though. The top two Chinese newspapers (on opposite side of political spectrum) aka Apple Daily and Oriental Daily are VERY sensationalist. You can't blame HKers for worrying about another SARS, though, especially after the long cover-up by mainland government back then. Hack, even yesterday, a few HK TV station had their reporters detained and questioned near the "epicenter" hospital in Wuhan (And yes, it include the ultra pro-China TVB).

With Chunyun coming up, if the virus is worse than current reports, things can get really messy quickly.


Even if most of the people in HK being quarantined with the flu, It actually will help decrease the genetic diversity of existing pathogens like the flu to be quarantining the sick and people wearing face masks. The rest of the world will benefit even if they don't realize it by extra precautions being taken in Asia. So, keep doing what you're doing while we wait for more details and thank you HK for taking the lead on it.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:25 am

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspect ... s-outbreak

We're starting to see possible evidence of human to human transmission.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:10 pm

Some of the worry for a traveler:
If someone on your plane has a communicable disease you could be quarantined, this has happened to a member of our family, and I narrowly escaped it. SARs

If you were in a part of the world where the disease was happening hospitals in the US may quarantine you, hence scheduled surgeries cancelled - this one I escaped by only a few days.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:37 pm

It is now multi-country: https://apnews.com/3845a158612c6cc556c8cb7b91f5d078

Man in Japan was treated for pneumonia after a visit to the Wuhan region. Tested positive for the virus.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:18 am

The second death has occurred because of the virus: https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/16/hea ... -in-japan/

Wuhan expands screening and outbreak containment efforts: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/ ... 71876.html

Hong Kong expands illness reporting:
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/ ... angeable=0

Thailand increasing airport screening:
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/ge ... e-new-year
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:01 pm

Jouhou wrote:
Wuhan expands screening and outbreak containment efforts: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/ ... 71876.html


Let see if this would increase the amount of case number in Wuhan greatly. B/c it's ridiculous that there are still only <50 cases in Wuhan with the virus seemingly spreading to multiple places around the world.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:36 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Wuhan expands screening and outbreak containment efforts: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/ ... 71876.html


Let see if this would increase the amount of case number in Wuhan greatly. B/c it's ridiculous that there are still only <50 cases in Wuhan with the virus seemingly spreading to multiple places around the world.


Its notoriously difficult to pin down these types of things at the early stages. I say this as I'm sitting in a hospital with a 6 month old child who has RSV and pneumonia. Without serious symptoms progression they rarely due the test panel needed to identify the virus. Most adults would likely go without a visit to a doctor, and if they did their symptoms may only mimic a minor cold. It's the elderly and young children that we first see the numbers pop up for. Overtime as an outbreak spreads the screenings will become more common place. But by then it's too late.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:51 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Wuhan expands screening and outbreak containment efforts: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/ ... 71876.html


Let see if this would increase the amount of case number in Wuhan greatly. B/c it's ridiculous that there are still only <50 cases in Wuhan with the virus seemingly spreading to multiple places around the world.


And of the travelers found outside of china, none went to the outbreak market in question. The one in Japan supposedly had contact with a known patient- meaning China isn't even doing a good job of contact tracing.

Also, second infected person confirmed in Thailand. http://outbreaknewstoday.com/novel-coro ... ase-60660/
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:31 pm

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cdc-t ... latestnews

US (CDC) will begin screening pax from WUH at LAX, SFO, and JFK.

Out of the 3, SFO and JFK has non-stop to WUH, but LAX does have flights to most "secondary" (i.e. anything outside of the "Big 3+1" aka PEK/PKX, PVG, CAN, and SZX) cities in China, and is probably the #1 gateway.

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