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SRQKEF
Posts: 1950
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:17 pm

Have there been any other cases of airports of similar size closing down due to a quarantine, or come to think of it any airports at all?

Kikko19 wrote:
A bit too late. Closing the stable when the infected cows are gone. Hopefully they will trace every sick one. Or we all are doomed. See movie " contagion"


While incredibly serious, saying "we're all doomed" is baseless hysteria. And please, for your own sake, don't base your scientific knowledge on movies. :)
Nothing compares to taking off in an empty 757 with full thrust!
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:30 pm

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

it's official three cities have now been quarantined.


I wonder if Xiaogan, a city of ~1M (counting the urban part only) ~40mi NW of Wuhan and Huangshi (which is just further downstream on Yangtze from Ezhou and Huanggang, the two cities that will get quarantine) will be next in line to be quarantined.
 
aca36
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:00 pm

CSN8420 from JFK diverted to Guangzhou.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/CSN8420
 
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casinterest
Posts: 11797
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:10 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

it's official three cities have now been quarantined.


I wonder if Xiaogan, a city of ~1M (counting the urban part only) ~40mi NW of Wuhan and Huangshi (which is just further downstream on Yangtze from Ezhou and Huanggang, the two cities that will get quarantine) will be next in line to be quarantined.



Maybe, but at this point with confirmed cases in Seattle, and Singapore, it looks like it won't matter.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... uhan-virus
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:15 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
...
I seriously don't get anyone that still argue that things are not bad even now!

If it is not highly contagious, spread so quickly, and also quite deadly, why does China quarantine a city of 11M people??? China does that basically to protect everyone else (including, well, Beijing where those CCP cronies sit).


That is probably the best option China has right now, before they find patient zero and a vaccine. Also I am sure China don't want WHO to classify this as an outbreak.
All posts are just opinions.
 
LY777
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:20 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Andddd death toll just rose to 6. I wonder if the mutation I was worried about happened.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... ZK0X1?il=0

Taiwan reports first confirmed infection:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN1ZK0ZP

According to Chinese Language news, it's now confirmed in Zhejiang province as well. Any hopes I had for containment are dashed I think.


Yep - regardless of whether or not I'll be as bad as SARS it's already looking like it'll have the same impact on the global economy.

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/g ... 5D26CC31A3



RMB is getting stronger though
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:22 pm

casinterest wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

it's official three cities have now been quarantined.


I wonder if Xiaogan, a city of ~1M (counting the urban part only) ~40mi NW of Wuhan and Huangshi (which is just further downstream on Yangtze from Ezhou and Huanggang, the two cities that will get quarantine) will be next in line to be quarantined.



Maybe, but at this point with confirmed cases in Seattle, and Singapore, it looks like it won't matter.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... uhan-virus


It had definitely spread all over the region already. So far almost all oversea cases originate from somebody that had been to Wuhan, though.

Anyway, according to NTDTV (Chinese only), the travel restriction is expanding further in Hubei province.

To start, 3 sub-prefecture level cities, Tianmen, Qianjiang, and Xiantao, all with ~1M pop each and is West/SW of Wuhan, announce travel restrictions. Chibi (Part of Xianning City) south of Wuhan also make the list.
2 other "smaller" city, Zhijiang (Part of Yichang) and Lichuan (Part of Enshi) also announce restriction. What's notable is that this two small cities are quite a distance away (>100km) from Wuhan, with both being in Western Hubei province.

There are also rumors that the central government might eventually quarantine the entire Hubei province.

EDIT: Forgot to post my source:
https://www.ntdtv.com/b5/2020/01/23/a102759337.html
 
DDR
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:44 pm

At least this one seems to have a low fatality rate. Any particular reasons that a lot of these things seem to originate from this part of the world?
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:46 pm

Cerecl wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Flu has a far smaller case fatality rate. No way you can spin that.

And you base your assertion on?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
I will take average values-470k hospitalisation, ~35K death. Now you have ~500 hospitalised, 17 passed away with this virus. You are not going to think there are only 500 people who got infected so far, are you? I will even give you that out of the ~500 cases not all of them would be hospitalised if they caught a "conventional" virus. Still appears to be in the same ballpark to me.

They're hospitalising the "mild" cases for quarantine purposes at this stage. What they are calling "serious" and "critical" cases are the people who would be hospitalized if this wasn't novel. They're testing as many people as they have the resources to test, otherwise testing people for things like influenza and RSV (at least this season will have some very detailed data for viral illnesses in Asia I guess)

The annual estimates of those infected in the U.S. alone is in the tens of millions. The accurate comparison number on that page is annual medical visits, since it requires a visit to get a swab tested. Because it's so common and antivirals are only effective within the first 48 hours of being symptomatic, doctors don't necessarily do the test if you walk in and say you've felt awful for 4 days.
情報
 
peterinlisbon
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:46 pm

I'm wondering how they´re doing this and how are they enforcing it. I mean, they´d have to set up roadblocks and basically create a physical border around the city using the army because otherwise what is to stop someone simply driving to the next city and flying out of there? Foreigners within the city are stuck, nobody can enter or leave, people can´t get home. Trade basically has to cease.

This is a major emergency on an unimaginable scale and the situation must be much much worse than reported for them to resort to something as extreme as this. Wuhan may not be that famous outside of China, but it´s a huge city right in the middle of the country. If this was Shanghai, Hong Kong or Beijing the world would pay attention but if this is the way they´re going to deal with it, tomorrow it could well be.
 
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c933103
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:49 pm

The lockdown have already extended to some other towns around Wuhan. Chinese government have also announced free voluntary refund for all flight tickets and railway tickets in all part of China.
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anshabhi
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:51 pm

Has any treatment been developed for this virus?

Yeah I know virus don't die cause they never live but something like The cure for H1N1 or swine flu..
 
nanomolar
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:16 pm

peterinlisbon wrote:
I'm wondering how they´re doing this and how are they enforcing it. I mean, they´d have to set up roadblocks and basically create a physical border around the city using the army because otherwise what is to stop someone simply driving to the next city and flying out of there? Foreigners within the city are stuck, nobody can enter or leave, people can´t get home. Trade basically has to cease.

This is a major emergency on an unimaginable scale and the situation must be much much worse than reported for them to resort to something as extreme as this. Wuhan may not be that famous outside of China, but it´s a huge city right in the middle of the country. If this was Shanghai, Hong Kong or Beijing the world would pay attention but if this is the way they´re going to deal with it, tomorrow it could well be.


CNN is describing it as a "partial lockdown" so I don't think the aim is necessarily to prevent absolutely everyone from coming or going but rather to reduce the potential spread during the upcoming New Year's holiday.

Fortunately from the available data the mortality rate seems to be only around 3%, compared with 10% for SARS and 35% for MERS. Of course the initial numbers could be inaccurate but I don't think the Chinese government is massively under reporting mortality, both because it would be harder to do so now with modern communication methods and because they hopefully have learned something from SARS.

Some antivirals may be effective against this virus but it's unproven as of yet; for SARS treatment was primarily supportive and included corticosteroids to reduce lung inflammation.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:18 pm

There's been no new cases or deaths reported out of Hubei since the quarantine started. My suspicions might be correct. In that province now the true numbers will be far higher than what's reported.
情報
 
T4thH
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:31 pm

anshabhi wrote:
Has any treatment been developed for this virus?

Yeah I know virus don't die cause they never live but something like The cure for H1N1 or swine flu..


No. You ca only perform symptomatic treatment, Vaccination e.g. earliest in one year.

This is the bad thing with "asymptotic pneumonia" illnesses. In worst case (by luck, it is not in this Wuhan coronavirus, as it has TILL NOW a low death rate, only patients with a history of lung illness have died), between first symptoms and death are something like 6 h. I pretty well know, what I fear.
 
Kikko19
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:59 pm

SRQKEF wrote:
Have there been any other cases of airports of similar size closing down due to a quarantine, or come to think of it any airports at all?

Kikko19 wrote:
A bit too late. Closing the stable when the infected cows are gone. Hopefully they will trace every sick one. Or we all are doomed. See movie " contagion"


While incredibly serious, saying "we're all doomed" is baseless hysteria. And please, for your own sake, don't base your scientific knowledge on movies. :)

Sure, buy if the authority cannot contain thè spreading of thè virus le will enter into the ” unknow”and we can only rely on fiction. Except there wont be Heroes.
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:21 pm

DDR wrote:
At least this one seems to have a low fatality rate. Any particular reasons that a lot of these things seem to originate from this part of the world?


A high demand for exotic animal meats. This one supposedly originated in bats, but would have been transmitted to humans via a snake who dines on those infected bats.
 
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Polot
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:36 pm

Kikko19 wrote:
SRQKEF wrote:
Have there been any other cases of airports of similar size closing down due to a quarantine, or come to think of it any airports at all?

Kikko19 wrote:
A bit too late. Closing the stable when the infected cows are gone. Hopefully they will trace every sick one. Or we all are doomed. See movie " contagion"


While incredibly serious, saying "we're all doomed" is baseless hysteria. And please, for your own sake, don't base your scientific knowledge on movies. :)

Sure, buy if the authority cannot contain thè spreading of thè virus le will enter into the ” unknow”and we can only rely on fiction. Except there wont be Heroes.

If that was true I should currently be dead because of SARS, bird flu, swine flu, ebola and I’m sure several other epidemics I have forgotten about.
 
SonomaFlyer
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:45 pm

DDR wrote:
At least this one seems to have a low fatality rate. Any particular reasons that a lot of these things seem to originate from this part of the world?


It's early in the epidemiological investigation but reports have it at a 2% death rate or equivalent to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. Death rate for yearly influenza outbreaks are usually at 0.1%.

I believe it was the early death rate and vector of spread that caused such a massive response in China. The economic as well as societal impacts for that region will be huge. I don't believe such steps would have been taken if the government believes the infection and death rates are such that the entire country could be exposed given the Lunar New Year just starting.

As to how these viruses jump from pigs to humans, we are biologically similar in many respects to pigs and many species of monkeys so cross species jumps happen. Why in China as opposed to other places? Hygiene and crowding conditions of livestock and proximity to people will be the first things examined.


https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-coronavir ... 08803.html
Last edited by SonomaFlyer on Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Kikko19
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:45 pm

Polot wrote:
Kikko19 wrote:
SRQKEF wrote:
Have there been any other cases of airports of similar size closing down due to a quarantine, or come to think of it any airports at all?



While incredibly serious, saying "we're all doomed" is baseless hysteria. And please, for your own sake, don't base your scientific knowledge on movies. :)

Sure, buy if the authority cannot contain thè spreading of thè virus le will enter into the ” unknow”and we can only rely on fiction. Except there wont be Heroes.

If that was true I should currently be dead because of SARS, bird flu, swine flu, ebola and I’m sure several other epidemics I have forgotten about.
well you are not since they were able to contain these diseases. Ebola for instance would be much more likely to spread in a large city than in the jungle. This is not as deadly but will likely affect the world economy for start, and IF not contained create far bigger troubles worldwide.
 
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Polot
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:56 pm

Kikko19 wrote:
Polot wrote:
Kikko19 wrote:
Sure, buy if the authority cannot contain thè spreading of thè virus le will enter into the ” unknow”and we can only rely on fiction. Except there wont be Heroes.

If that was true I should currently be dead because of SARS, bird flu, swine flu, ebola and I’m sure several other epidemics I have forgotten about.
well you are not since they were able to contain these diseases. Ebola for instance would be much more likely to spread in a large city than in the jungle. This is not as deadly but will likely affect the world economy for start, and IF not contained create far bigger troubles worldwide.

They were not contained by immediately quarantining the city of origin. My point was that your that “A bit too late. Closing the stable when the infected cows are gone” comment is just laughable. Your idea that they cannot control the spread of the disease is incredibly premature.

Obviously it’s not like authorities are going to just ignore infected people found outside the quarantined cities.
 
Ziyulu
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:03 pm

When I just checked, CZ660 from SFO to WUH is on time.
 
DDR
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:26 pm

I respect China for trying to help stop the spread. Good luck to all of us that have to travel internationally. Luckily for me, Miami and Argentina seem to have not had any problems, but my thoughts are with all those who don’t have that good luck.
 
canmau
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:18 pm

c933103 wrote:
The lockdown have already extended to some other towns around Wuhan. Chinese government have also announced free voluntary refund for all flight tickets and railway tickets in all part of China.


Is this for foreign travelers with tickets to China as well or only for domestic travelers?
 
FCRO
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:20 pm

T4thH wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
They've tracked it to a food market, so possibly the same animal source as SARS

https://news.yahoo.com/menu-china-virus ... 50959.html


The new Wuhan coronavirus is in the same sub-sub family of coronavirusses as SARS.

The reservoir animals for SARS seems to be bats in China. It seems it has spread from the bats to the civet cat and than to humans.

Will be interesting to see, which wild animals are listed and sold as meat on this market, perhaps bats?


As this site, they even had koala to sell

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... e_fbia-top
 
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JannEejit
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:12 pm

(Attempts to keep within aviation theme) It's been reported here in Scotland that several Chinese nationals believed to be students recently arrived, have been admitted to hospitals in Glasgow and Edinburgh for testing under suspicion of showing symptoms of said virus. I guess if true then that's a virus that has travelled round the world already. Scotland does not have a direct airlink to Wuhan or indeed China at all.

BBC News - China coronavirus: Incident team to deal with Scottish threat
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51223111
 
bennett123
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:21 pm

China Southern to LHR most likely,
 
bennett123
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Jan 23, 2020 11:47 pm

I also suspect that the situation is worse than China is saying.

Can you imagine the whole of London/New York being quarantined?.
 
SonomaFlyer
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Fri Jan 24, 2020 12:51 am

Aviation related: this could turn out to be a longer travel ban then some anticipated because...

Non-Aviation related: CNN quoted China's National Health Commission that the death toll is up to 25 out of the 830 known infected people. That is a death rate of 3% which is statistically way over the Spanish Flu.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 24, 2020 12:57 am

(I will find an English source later).

As per latest report, 830 confirmed cases in China, death toll up to 25.

Also, a possible 2nd case is reported in US, a student at Texas A&M who traveled to China and went through Wuhan:
https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavi ... ent-tested

The student is quarantined and thus, should not create a huge problem spreading the virus. Hard to imagine what would happen if the virus spread SARS style on a college campus :(.

My two cents:
I can almost guarantee that the number will just continue to shoot up. The situation in Wuhan area from all reports is pretty ugly with many possible cases not fully tested yet.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:30 am

The epidemiology aside, what effect will this have on travel in the region? Recall that as a result of SARS, travel in the Pacific Rim cratered.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:16 am

Shortages of test kits reported:
https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-c ... ear-2020-1

Railroad brags on social media they moved out 300,000 people from Wuhan on Wednesday (day before quarantine):
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10809454/ ... wuhan/amp/

I read other reports that the Wuhan universities let out early for the lunar new year.

This illness seems to have a 4 to 14 day asymptomatic incubation period that is contagious during some fraction.

My sister is reporting that the Flu, type A, is knocking down the staff of the hospital she works at. Everyone double vaccinated (flu shots from two different drug companies).

So why debate flu vs. this virus, it looks like both will hit at once this year.

US state department issues a level 4 alert (do not travel) for Hubei province:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.c ... 3d68497698

This isn't the end of the world, but the fact this is also happening in Flu season is bad.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:28 am

It looks like the province is being quarantined with 13 cities now locked down:

https://time.com/5770801/china-wuhan-co ... anization/

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:20 am

So, I missed this because it hadn't been reported by the media but I just became curious about this "Have they figured out the attachment site for this virus yet? Does it bind to the ACE2 receptor like SARS?"


https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 2.915660v1

The answers are yes and yes. It binds to the ACE2 receptor, which was a unique characteristic of the SARS virus. The only other known virus to bind to this site is NL63 CoV. Can we stop downplaying this now? (To the guy who's STILL saying this is no worse than common respiratory viruses) There's only 2 other known viruses that enter the host's cells in this way, and the only closely related one was SARS.

Next important piece of information is when are people most infectious with the virus relative to when they first show symptoms. The reason why SARS was stopped was because people showed a fever and symptoms days before they became strongly infectious, making it effective to find and isolate symptomatic infected people to stop the transmission of the virus. This virus does not appear to be causing the same strong immune response SARS caused to make symptoms appear so early. That's worrying.
情報
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:06 am

Jouhou wrote:
Next important piece of information is when are people most infectious with the virus relative to when they first show symptoms. The reason why SARS was stopped was because people showed a fever and symptoms days before they became strongly infectious, making it effective to find and isolate symptomatic infected people to stop the transmission of the virus. This virus does not appear to be causing the same strong immune response SARS caused to make symptoms appear so early. That's worrying.


Indeed. IIRC a few suspected cases in HK involved somebody that is totally healthy when entering HK circa a week ago, just to have the symptoms suddenly pop up. It is also perhaps why China decided to shut down whole cities this time around for containment - maybe they already know this!

But also perhaps this virus is simply not as strong as SARS, i.e. it is highly contagious but not as deadly. The not as deadly part is the only thing I can wish right now - but again, nobody is 100% yet.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:21 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Next important piece of information is when are people most infectious with the virus relative to when they first show symptoms. The reason why SARS was stopped was because people showed a fever and symptoms days before they became strongly infectious, making it effective to find and isolate symptomatic infected people to stop the transmission of the virus. This virus does not appear to be causing the same strong immune response SARS caused to make symptoms appear so early. That's worrying.


Indeed. IIRC a few suspected cases in HK involved somebody that is totally healthy when entering HK circa a week ago, just to have the symptoms suddenly pop up. It is also perhaps why China decided to shut down whole cities this time around for containment - maybe they already know this!

But also perhaps this virus is simply not as strong as SARS, i.e. it is highly contagious but not as deadly. The not as deadly part is the only thing I can wish right now - but again, nobody is 100% yet.


It might not be as deadly to young people. If I remember correctly, SARS killed the young and healthy via "cytokine storm" as a result of an overly aggressive immune response. Without provoking such a strong immune response, A.)It's possible only the young and healthy have a response strong enough to eliminate it while the sick and elderly's immune systems are putting up a vastly inadequate response allowing the virus to cause rampant tissue damage and B.) Not be nearly as deadly to young and healthy people. I think it might have some kind of immune evading characteristic SARS did not have.

The 50+ population is quite large though with improvements in medicine and living conditions in most countries, even if it leaves young people alive it could possibly have an absolutely devastating toll on the overall population, and overwhelm our healthcare systems.
情報
 
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c933103
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:47 am

canmau wrote:
c933103 wrote:
The lockdown have already extended to some other towns around Wuhan. Chinese government have also announced free voluntary refund for all flight tickets and railway tickets in all part of China.


Is this for foreign travelers with tickets to China as well or only for domestic travelers?

The announcement didn't mention details
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Kikko19
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:00 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
The epidemiology aside, what effect will this have on travel in the region? Recall that as a result of SARS, travel in the Pacific Rim cratered.

Likely, if not contained soon, will hit hard tourism industry. And airlines local and other active there... Like Finnair or LH.
 
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AlexA340B777
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:38 am

The Lion Air flight from/to Denpasar has been operating to Wuhan today... currently otw back to DPS... so are there some exceptions being made?
6 continents, 85 countries, 746 flights, 90 airlines, 37 aircraft types
 
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c933103
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:41 am

SonomaFlyer wrote:
Aviation related: this could turn out to be a longer travel ban then some anticipated because...

Non-Aviation related: CNN quoted China's National Health Commission that the death toll is up to 25 out of the 830 known infected people. That is a death rate of 3% which is statistically way over the Spanish Flu.

I am highly suspicious of both numbers given that they already need to lock down thirteen cities with 30 Million inhabited inside.
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T4thH
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Fri Jan 24, 2020 12:23 pm

c933103 wrote:
SonomaFlyer wrote:
Aviation related: this could turn out to be a longer travel ban then some anticipated because...

Non-Aviation related: CNN quoted China's National Health Commission that the death toll is up to 25 out of the 830 known infected people. That is a death rate of 3% which is statistically way over the Spanish Flu.

I am highly suspicious of both numbers given that they already need to lock down thirteen cities with 30 Million inhabited inside.


We do neither now the total numbers of infected nor the numbers of ill. perhaps already let us say 5000 or 10000 have been infected and have symptoms; perhaps most of them just do feel a little bit sick (just a weak cold like and are not in the listing, because they have not visited a physician, or the new disease was not identified), few were ill, but still did not visited a physician, as it is just flue like. And we do not know the number of patients, who got infected, but never got sick.

The question is, how many are now already infected, do not have any symptoms, or only light symptoms and how many of them are already identified as "known infected". So we just do not know, what is the real "death rate", perhaps it is just regular flue like 0.1%?
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 24, 2020 12:55 pm

Shanghai's Disney Resort is temporarily closing, as are McDonald's in five cities. So not all bad news.
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MIflyer12
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:26 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
The epidemiology aside, what effect will this have on travel in the region? Recall that as a result of SARS, travel in the Pacific Rim cratered.


That depends on how decisively authorities react. I heard this morning (NPR, but details are fuzzy) that travelers arriving to (where?) from Wuhan are going to be held in 14-day quarantine.

The immigration tools, and public health tools, to clamp down on international travel are pretty broad and effective. To use just travel between China and the U.S. as an example, the U.S. is under no obligation to accept flights from China - these operate by mutual treaty. Similarly, the U.S. could set health screening protocols for travelers on flights China-USA just as it sets security screening protocols. The U.S. could, probably on less than 24 hour notice, demand that:

- all travelers from China direct to the U.S. be screened for health and recent travels
- permits flight from ONLY PEK/PVG/HKG
- to ONLY LAX/SFO/EWR/JFK (cities where medical personnel and facilities are numerous)
- where arriving travelers will receive another health screen and suspect individuals quarantined
- until the U.S. government declares differently

I'm not saying that's the way to deal with this (while human-to-human rates of transmission, lethality, and incubation period are unknown), but it's possible. It wouldn't take a new treaty. It doesn't demand new legislation.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:32 pm

Reports of a second US case in Chicago

https://myfox8.com/2020/01/24/cdc-says- ... ase-in-us/
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:45 pm

sonicruiser wrote:


And the case follow the trend where screening alone would not be enough, as the women was actually healthy when she entered US on the 13th, only for the symptoms to show up 10 days later.

Jouhou wrote:
The 50+ population is quite large though with improvements in medicine and living conditions in most countries, even if it leaves young people alive it could possibly have an absolutely devastating toll on the overall population, and overwhelm our healthcare systems.


China's population itself is aging with the number of people that's 50+ also being VERY large there also.
https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2019/

So far all the deaths are of people 50+ age with some underlying disease IIRC.
 
dstblj52
Posts: 501
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:56 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
The epidemiology aside, what effect will this have on travel in the region? Recall that as a result of SARS, travel in the Pacific Rim cratered.


That depends on how decisively authorities react. I heard this morning (NPR, but details are fuzzy) that travelers arriving to (where?) from Wuhan are going to be held in 14-day quarantine.

The immigration tools, and public health tools, to clamp down on international travel are pretty broad and effective. To use just travel between China and the U.S. as an example, the U.S. is under no obligation to accept flights from China - these operate by mutual treaty. Similarly, the U.S. could set health screening protocols for travelers on flights China-USA just as it sets security screening protocols. The U.S. could, probably on less than 24 hour notice, demand that:

- all travelers from China direct to the U.S. be screened for health and recent travels
- permits flight from ONLY PEK/PVG/HKG
- to ONLY LAX/SFO/EWR/JFK (cities where medical personnel and facilities are numerous)
- where arriving travelers will receive another health screen and suspect individuals quarantined
- until the U.S. government declares differently

I'm not saying that's the way to deal with this (while human-to-human rates of transmission, lethality, and incubation period are unknown), but it's possible. It wouldn't take a new treaty. It doesn't demand new legislation.

The problem with that strategy is that you really need to screen them before they get onto the plane otherwise you have a major problem on your hand once you discover you have a case, it is a good trip wire that you have a problem but doesn't actually solve it.
 
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:06 pm

Thread off aviation, moving and then merging with non-av topic.
Winter is coming.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 24, 2020 4:27 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:


And the case follow the trend where screening alone would not be enough, as the women was actually healthy when she entered US on the 13th, only for the symptoms to show up 10 days later.

Jouhou wrote:
The 50+ population is quite large though with improvements in medicine and living conditions in most countries, even if it leaves young people alive it could possibly have an absolutely devastating toll on the overall population, and overwhelm our healthcare systems.


China's population itself is aging with the number of people that's 50+ also being VERY large there also.
https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2019/

So far all the deaths are of people 50+ age with some underlying disease IIRC.

So far all the deaths are those who are susceptible to lung infections:
Obese (diabetes)
Older smokers
70+ years old
Middle aged with another health issue.

I have no link, but I would bet money the 36 year old who died was a heavy smoker who didn't excercise.

This is as bad as a normal flu, type A. But the type A flu started and per my sister, it is putting in bed vaccinated people. Her hospital ward is full.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
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c933103
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Re: Flights to/from Wuhan (WUH) Suspended

Fri Jan 24, 2020 5:20 pm

T4thH wrote:
c933103 wrote:
SonomaFlyer wrote:
Aviation related: this could turn out to be a longer travel ban then some anticipated because...

Non-Aviation related: CNN quoted China's National Health Commission that the death toll is up to 25 out of the 830 known infected people. That is a death rate of 3% which is statistically way over the Spanish Flu.

I am highly suspicious of both numbers given that they already need to lock down thirteen cities with 30 Million inhabited inside.


We do neither now the total numbers of infected nor the numbers of ill. perhaps already let us say 5000 or 10000 have been infected and have symptoms; perhaps most of them just do feel a little bit sick (just a weak cold like and are not in the listing, because they have not visited a physician, or the new disease was not identified), few were ill, but still did not visited a physician, as it is just flue like. And we do not know the number of patients, who got infected, but never got sick.

The question is, how many are now already infected, do not have any symptoms, or only light symptoms and how many of them are already identified as "known infected". So we just do not know, what is the real "death rate", perhaps it is just regular flue like 0.1%?

Given the unclear situation in Wuhan/Hubei, we should probably try to calculate death rate by only counting numbers outside the province.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate. 求同存異. よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
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L410Turbolet
Posts: 6248
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Jan 24, 2020 5:31 pm

bennett123 wrote:
I also suspect that the situation is worse than China is saying.

The only question is how many zeroes you need to add behind all those "official" numbers presented by the Chinese.
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