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zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:18 pm

uta999 wrote:
Governments are perhaps kidding themselves (and us) that this virus can be contained by simply reducing or cutting out a few flights. China has a population of 1.4 billion people at home and abroad. Those that want or need to travel will simply take an alternate route to/from an airport unaffected so far. Isolating a whole country of this size has never been done before and may not stop it anyway.

To put this into perspective, the number of deaths from this virus is under 500, verses 700 killed per day on the roads in China. By comparison, 100 die on US roads each day. Here in the UK it is 5. The media frenzy over this story will cause a downturn in the industry similar to 2002 or even 2008. Is it justified? Perhaps not.

WHO: How many road deaths are in China?
More than 700 people are killed in road accidents across China every day, according to the World Health Organisation. The WHO estimates that traffic accident claim about 260,000 deaths on the mainland each year, of which with 60 per cent are vulnerable road users such as pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists.


Which is why US (and other country) measure of NOT letting anyone (regardless of nationality unless they're the citizen/permanent resident of the said country) that have been to mainland actually works better.

Oh, and BTW, China themselves are the first one that "isolate a whole city" follow by a whole region in Hubei province. It was too late to stop the virus from spreading to other places, but definitely help contained it (even now ~80% of the cases reported everyday are in Hubei). China can also then focus more resources in Hubei instead of having to split the medical resources all over the country.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
As I said in the other thread, I've never seen the Japanese premier look so tense as he did yesterday.


Doesn't help that Japan has the most cases outside of China, even if you count HK and Macau (and depends on your political view, Taiwan) separately.

One of the most "under-reported" at least here, though, is Singapore with the number of cases there jumping to 28 there. During SARS, Singapore is the 3rd most affected after mainland China and HK.
 
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:19 pm

[threeid][/threeid]
planemanofnz wrote:
uta999 wrote:
To put this into perspective, the number of deaths from this virus is under 500, verses 700 killed per day on the roads in China.

That's if you actually believe the official figures being released ...

Cheers,

C.

I know, bad source, but multiple indications bodies are pilling up:
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world- ... 7-21434630

The SARs death was very understated. We had links early in this thread.

I calculated a city the size of Wuhan should have about 376 deaths/day which will occupy the cremetoriums 3 hours a day on a 5 day work week by my calculations. This aligns with prior reports that they ran a half day typically.

They are now running 24/7. Hmmmm....

Did China really shut down their economy for something like a flu? Or do they know more?

Yesterday more hospital beds were made available and cases spiked. Could the rumors that testing stopped at hospitals when beds were full be true?

This is an incredibly slow disease. The other possibility is we are seeing the spike from initial lunar new year travel. It is a good thing people are not about to return via mass transit to crowded working conditions with multiple people per room dorm housing...

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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:28 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The fact is that at this point, anything that reduces the factor of multiplication is a huge win. As you can see from the forecasts, even a factor of 115% increase versus 118% makes a huge difference several weeks down the line.

The more it is contained, the more it's manageable.

So far, this looks like a train moments before smashing at 300km/h into the end of the line.
At the current rate, this virus is going to exceed the daily death rates of the common flu within about 10 days and countinue to accelerate to become 10 times as deadly by the end of February.

Containment is one thing, but China needs the world's help right now and lots of it.

Notwithstanding the above forecast based on statistical numbers, my personal estimates are that at least 500.000 people worldwide are carriers.

As I said in the other thread, I've never seen the Japanese premier look so tense as he did yesterday.

https://youtu.be/H1kHZwTHUas


In the meanwhile, another cruise ship is being quarantined in Hong Kong...

We need to help China. If they fail, humanity fails.

The official data has deaths a linear function of infections (this makes sense if they only take severe cases on a bed available basis).

Minimizing the resources is important.

I see people blame CDC or whatever. This is bad. No EU country is ready. No North or South American country is ready. No emerging economy is ready.

Different populations have different resistances. I can only imagine what this will do in a homeless camp (pick your favorite or least favorite city).

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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:38 pm

2nd cruise ship in quarantine: World Dream (Dream Cruises line). Prior was Diamond Princess (Part of Princess cruises, IIRC a sub-division of Carnival):
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/mobile.reute ... SKBN1ZZ06L

In my opinion, the restrictions on cruise passengers and gambling will hurt those industries. Imagine the first time a Carribean, Mediterranean, or Dubai cruise is quarantined. Obviously the West Coast Disney cruises will be immune. :duck:

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zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 05, 2020 3:57 pm

lightsaber wrote:
2nd cruise ship in quarantine: World Dream (Dream Cruises line). Prior was Diamond Princess (Part of Princess cruises, IIRC a sub-division of Carnival):


Princess Cruises is indeed a division of Carnival.

lightsaber wrote:
I see people blame CDC or whatever. This is bad. No EU country is ready. No North or South American country is ready. No emerging economy is ready.


Which is why there's such a big "panic" anyway. Last thing any "western" country wants is a SARS-like outbreak, Canada style.

lightsaber wrote:
The SARs death was very understated. We had links early in this thread.


Indeed. People actually believe that there are ONLY 349 deaths in mainland China for SARS (out of 5327 cases, a death rate of 6.6%) vs. 299 in Hong Kong (out of 1755 cases, a death rate of 17%), or 73/346 in Taiwan (10.7%), 43/251 in Canada (17.1%), and 33/238 in Singapore (13.9%). I would take the 10-15% average death rate over the 6.6% reported in mainland China all day long. Also remember this is China of 2003, with medical infrastructure that's a lot worse than China of 2020.
 
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:12 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I calculated a city the size of Wuhan should have about 376 deaths/day which will occupy the cremetoriums 3 hours a day on a 5 day work week by my calculations. This aligns with prior reports that they ran a half day typically.

They are now running 24/7.


Can you provide a source for this?
 
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:14 pm

I really wonder if it reasonable to allow the cruise industry to continue operating at times like these. I am a bit cruise fan but cruise ships are breeding grounds for bacteria at the best of times. Allowing people to get on a cruise ship now seems like a pretty stupid thing to do (not that I can be regulated).
 
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:20 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
The fact is that at this point, anything that reduces the factor of multiplication is a huge win. As you can see from the forecasts, even a factor of 115% increase versus 118% makes a huge difference several weeks down the line.

The more it is contained, the more it's manageable.

So far, this looks like a train moments before smashing at 300km/h into the end of the line.
At the current rate, this virus is going to exceed the daily death rates of the common flu within about 10 days and countinue to accelerate to become 10 times as deadly by the end of February.

Containment is one thing, but China needs the world's help right now and lots of it.

Notwithstanding the above forecast based on statistical numbers, my personal estimates are that at least 500.000 people worldwide are carriers.

As I said in the other thread, I've never seen the Japanese premier look so tense as he did yesterday.

https://youtu.be/H1kHZwTHUas


In the meanwhile, another cruise ship is being quarantined in Hong Kong...

We need to help China. If they fail, humanity fails.

The official data has deaths a linear function of infections (this makes sense if they only take severe cases on a bed available basis).

Minimizing the resources is important.

I see people blame CDC or whatever. This is bad. No EU country is ready. No North or South American country is ready. No emerging economy is ready.

Different populations have different resistances. I can only imagine what this will do in a homeless camp (pick your favorite or least favorite city).

Lightsaber


I understand poorer countries are not prepared... which is exactly why it's disconcerting the world's wealthiest country is poorly prepared for this.

I don't know how the U.S. can help China. They need medical PPE the most and we don't have it to spare, because we only produce 5% of our surgical mask needs domestically and 30% of our N95 needs domestically. With the world's largest producers diverting their production for domestic use (China,Taiwan, India and possibly soon Thailand), we're already in a shortage without an outbreak. We can help with cleaning agents, some of the miscellaneous PPE (but respiratory protection is the most essential), and possibly some medications once some are confirmed to have a beneficial effect. Other wise we're just frantically researching the virus like every other major country.
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:25 pm

EIBPI wrote:
I really wonder if it reasonable to allow the cruise industry to continue operating at times like these. I am a bit cruise fan but cruise ships are breeding grounds for bacteria at the best of times. Allowing people to get on a cruise ship now seems like a pretty stupid thing to do (not that I can be regulated).


They could arrange daily times when people return to their cabins to fog the shared spaces with a virucidal agent so when they discover an infected person, opportunities for transmission may be decreased. Curious if there's one effective on norovirus, it could actually make things better in general for cruise ships as a regular practice.

Edit: yes, while a number of things can kill both noroviruses and coronaviruses it seems that a hydrogen peroxide based agent is effective for norovirus:

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10 ... 01031/full

and it seems China is already combating the coronavirus with this kind of disinfectant:


https://wtvbam.com/news/articles/2020/f ... us/980935/
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Re: Corona Virus outbreak - Aviation related News and Discussion Thread

Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:44 pm

EIBPI wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I calculated a city the size of Wuhan should have about 376 deaths/day which will occupy the cremetoriums 3 hours a day on a 5 day work week by my calculations. This aligns with prior reports that they ran a half day typically.

They are now running 24/7.


Can you provide a source for this?

As I stated, I calculated. I assumed 1.25% of a population dies every year and divided by 365.
11*10^6*0.0125/365=376.7


I had read links that it takes 1 to 3 minutes to cremate a body, so I assume 25 bodies per hour. 7 crematorium...
376.7 /7 (assume 5 day workweek)=53.82 bodies per crematorium or 2.15 hours, but with a 5 day workweek, 2.15*7/5=3. Or a half day.

I cannot find the link that they were running half days, but from what I have experienced, that seems logical. In general, as few want to work the funeral industry, working conditions and pay tend to be better to attract employees.

As to cremation 24/7:
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world- ... 7-21434630

My phone browser is malfunctioning, but WSJ just posted an article on how sick patients are being turned away. NPR had an article earlier:
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... are-scarce

Reported Coronavirus deaths seem to be, in my opinion, only for those tested positive. If people die outside of hospital care, they are just a death.

If Wuhan posts deaths day and we could compare trends, that would be great. But they fact there is no such information is not good.

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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:47 pm

https://patch.com/california/banning-be ... spitalized

Wonder if he tested positive or not.
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:51 pm

EIBPI wrote:
I really wonder if it reasonable to allow the cruise industry to continue operating at times like these. I am a bit cruise fan but cruise ships are breeding grounds for bacteria at the best of times. Allowing people to get on a cruise ship now seems like a pretty stupid thing to do (not that I can be regulated).


Umm...except that the 80-year man that eventually infected 10 additional people (for now...and hopefully the number stays low) with 2019-nCoV boarded the ship on Jan. 20 (in Yokohama) and left on Jan. 25 (in Hong Kong), and wasn't officially diagnosed with the nCoV until Feb. 1st or 2nd (He entered the hospital on Jan. 30th).

Keep in mind that back on Jan. 20th, nobody really bet an eye as to traveling everywhere. Even Wuhan itself was not lockdown until Jan. 23rd. Jan. 18th was the day that China announced new test for the nCoV (And the number of confirmed cases subsequently exploded). Even then, the number of confirmed cases outside of Hubei as of Jan. 20th was 21 (14 in Guangdong, 5 in Beijing, 2 in Shanghai).

The 3 confirmed cases on World Dream was from people that board in Guangzhou (Nansha) on Jan. 19th, and deboard on Jan. 24th. They're only quarantining the ship right now since there were confirmed cases on the ship during a PREVIOUS cruise. Again, back on Jan. 19th, nobody bet an eye traveling everywhere.
 
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 05, 2020 6:54 pm

Jouhou wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
The fact is that at this point, anything that reduces the factor of multiplication is a huge win. As you can see from the forecasts, even a factor of 115% increase versus 118% makes a huge difference several weeks down the line.

The more it is contained, the more it's manageable.

So far, this looks like a train moments before smashing at 300km/h into the end of the line.
At the current rate, this virus is going to exceed the daily death rates of the common flu within about 10 days and countinue to accelerate to become 10 times as deadly by the end of February.

Containment is one thing, but China needs the world's help right now and lots of it.

Notwithstanding the above forecast based on statistical numbers, my personal estimates are that at least 500.000 people worldwide are carriers.

As I said in the other thread, I've never seen the Japanese premier look so tense as he did yesterday.

https://youtu.be/H1kHZwTHUas


In the meanwhile, another cruise ship is being quarantined in Hong Kong...

We need to help China. If they fail, humanity fails.

The official data has deaths a linear function of infections (this makes sense if they only take severe cases on a bed available basis).

Minimizing the resources is important.

I see people blame CDC or whatever. This is bad. No EU country is ready. No North or South American country is ready. No emerging economy is ready.

Different populations have different resistances. I can only imagine what this will do in a homeless camp (pick your favorite or least favorite city).

Lightsaber


I understand poorer countries are not prepared... which is exactly why it's disconcerting the world's wealthiest country is poorly prepared for this.

I don't know how the U.S. can help China. They need medical PPE the most and we don't have it to spare, because we only produce 5% of our surgical mask needs domestically and 30% of our N95 needs domestically. With the world's largest producers diverting their production for domestic use (China,Taiwan, India and possibly soon Thailand), we're already in a shortage without an outbreak. We can help with cleaning agents, some of the miscellaneous PPE (but respiratory protection is the most essential), and possibly some medications once some are confirmed to have a beneficial effect. Other wise we're just frantically researching the virus like every other major country.


We could help:
We have closets of PPE. I'm working in cleanrooms that use equivalent PPE, just Aerospace instead of medical. Respirators are still available. We produce for the military. Who cares if it has a NASA cert or MIL cert.

We also have the pharma companies. Just IV fluids help.

It is scary that the issue is in the world's factory and they are reserving supplies for themselves.

All of my high level PPE is US made. I'm a hazwopper, certified to be part of or to lead a rescue team in a hazardous chemical environment. China needs the suits we wear. Oh... I need respirator medical/ training again soon...

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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:08 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
We need to help China. If they fail, humanity fails.

The official data has deaths a linear function of infections (this makes sense if they only take severe cases on a bed available basis).

Minimizing the resources is important.

I see people blame CDC or whatever. This is bad. No EU country is ready. No North or South American country is ready. No emerging economy is ready.

Different populations have different resistances. I can only imagine what this will do in a homeless camp (pick your favorite or least favorite city).

Lightsaber


I understand poorer countries are not prepared... which is exactly why it's disconcerting the world's wealthiest country is poorly prepared for this.

I don't know how the U.S. can help China. They need medical PPE the most and we don't have it to spare, because we only produce 5% of our surgical mask needs domestically and 30% of our N95 needs domestically. With the world's largest producers diverting their production for domestic use (China,Taiwan, India and possibly soon Thailand), we're already in a shortage without an outbreak. We can help with cleaning agents, some of the miscellaneous PPE (but respiratory protection is the most essential), and possibly some medications once some are confirmed to have a beneficial effect. Other wise we're just frantically researching the virus like every other major country.


We could help:
We have closets of PPE. I'm working in cleanrooms that use equivalent PPE, just Aerospace instead of medical. Respirators are still available. We produce for the military. Who cares if it has a NASA cert or MIL cert.

We also have the pharma companies. Just IV fluids help.

It is scary that the issue is in the world's factory and they are reserving supplies for themselves.

All of my high level PPE is US made. I'm a hazwopper, certified to be part of or to lead a rescue team in a hazardous chemical environment. China needs the suits we wear. Oh... I need respirator medical/ training again soon...

Lightsaber


I think Boeing donated 250,000 N95s, but that's not enough to even satisfy their needs for a day. I know the N95s I'm issued at work are also effective for protection from Viruses and Bacteria, but common dust masks are not.

The stockpiles we have in various businesses and government agencies won't make much of a dent, but those who could spare them seemingly have already offered them up. I'm pretty sure we won't be able to order more N95s for a long time now.
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:35 pm

Vaccines are a year out, and maybe years. What could be done now is earlier detection, and faster and cheaper testing. Then public health measures, short of quarantines, but effectively compartmentalizing populations. The later would minimize the spread of a disease and give authorities more time to react. Authorities often underestimate the willingness of most people to do these sorts of things. Go out and buy groceries, mostly takeout from restaurants or sit more than 6 feet away from other persons, do all the things you normally do, but close to only half as many people (or 1/3rd or 3/4s or ...). We limit how many people can be in enclosed areas for fire safety, and could do the same thing in epidemics. There are multiple links that generally being no closer than 6 feet and for less than 10 minutes greatly reduces the chances of disease transmission. On a plane you are stuck. On land or a cruise ship this is possible.
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:08 pm

Check this out:

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

Article in the Taiwan News saying a site called "Tencent" may have leaked the real Wuhan Virus numbers: 150k infected with 24k + dead. Those figures would line up more with the response we've seen from the Chinese central government. Frightening if true.
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:17 pm

Jouhou wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

I understand poorer countries are not prepared... which is exactly why it's disconcerting the world's wealthiest country is poorly prepared for this.

I don't know how the U.S. can help China. They need medical PPE the most and we don't have it to spare, because we only produce 5% of our surgical mask needs domestically and 30% of our N95 needs domestically. With the world's largest producers diverting their production for domestic use (China,Taiwan, India and possibly soon Thailand), we're already in a shortage without an outbreak. We can help with cleaning agents, some of the miscellaneous PPE (but respiratory protection is the most essential), and possibly some medications once some are confirmed to have a beneficial effect. Other wise we're just frantically researching the virus like every other major country.


We could help:
We have closets of PPE. I'm working in cleanrooms that use equivalent PPE, just Aerospace instead of medical. Respirators are still available. We produce for the military. Who cares if it has a NASA cert or MIL cert.

We also have the pharma companies. Just IV fluids help.

It is scary that the issue is in the world's factory and they are reserving supplies for themselves.

All of my high level PPE is US made. I'm a hazwopper, certified to be part of or to lead a rescue team in a hazardous chemical environment. China needs the suits we wear. Oh... I need respirator medical/ training again soon...

Lightsaber


I think Boeing donated 250,000 N95s, but that's not enough to even satisfy their needs for a day. I know the N95s I'm issued at work are also effective for protection from Viruses and Bacteria, but common dust masks are not.

The stockpiles we have in various businesses and government agencies won't make much of a dent, but those who could spare them seemingly have already offered them up. I'm pretty sure we won't be able to order more N95s for a long time now.


Don't underestimate the true benefit of even a simple dust mask though. It prevents you from making contact with your face from your hands. While it may seem minor it has major benefits.
 
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:26 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Don't underestimate the true benefit of even a simple dust mask though. It prevents you from making contact with your face from your hands. While it may seem minor it has major benefits.

Interestingly face masks are actually more beneficial to those around the user than the mask wearer themselves as it prevents movement of respiratory droplets and mucus from that person. Not all of it of course but a lot of it.

So please feel free to wear your mask. (I would wear one only there was really good reason.)

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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:04 pm

zchannel wrote:
Check this out:

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

Article in the Taiwan News saying a site called "Tencent" may have leaked the real Wuhan Virus numbers: 150k infected with 24k + dead. Those figures would line up more with the response we've seen from the Chinese central government. Frightening if true.

Frightening if true. It aligns better with anecdotal evidence.

Hypothetically, did someone put a spreadsheet column one off? What was reported as infected is dead, possibly contained is infected and the other columns mixed up?

I hope I am being paranoid. But shutting off Macau, extending the Lunar holiday, quarantine of 50+ million is not in line with official numbers.

Genting's World Dream cruise ship has 3 confirmed cases:

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday ... 4665323002

I cannot find an update on the Diamond princess. The tests do not take that long. I was expecting say XX of 271 have the virus, not no new information.

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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:08 pm

New case in the USA in Wisconsin.
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:52 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I cannot find an update on the Diamond princess. The tests do not take that long. I was expecting say XX of 271 have the virus, not no new information.


Still 10 confirmed cases so far. BTW 273 people total were tested - 120 that showed flu symptom, and 153 that was determined to have close contact with the 80-year old man.

Also, 2 additional cases were confirm in Japan (One is somebody traveling back from Wuhan and is the husband of a confirmed case on 4th, the other is a worker in the tourism industry that may have had contacts with a tour group from Hubei). The total confirmed case in Japan is now 35, including the 10 cases on Diamond Princess.

EstherLouise wrote:
New case in the USA in Wisconsin.


Somebody that had been to Beijing. No further details other than that.

lightsaber wrote:
I hope I am being paranoid. But shutting off Macau, extending the Lunar holiday, quarantine of 50+ million is not in line with official numbers.


Macau shuts all of their casinos due to the fact that their 9th case (out of 10 overall so far) was a worker in Galaxy Macau casino. Also, the Chief Executive there had mentioned shutting down all casinos as an option to contain the virus almost a week back.

The virus had already shown to be extremely contagious - almost like regular flu virus. The only hope is that 2019-nCoV is ONLY as deadly as flu virus instead of SARS virus. Also hoping that it's not spreading to entire floor/building via plumbing system similar to SARS' spread in HK.
 
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:33 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Forecast of Feb 2nd:
Confirmed cases are now increasing at a rate factor of 1.21, death rates at 1.17.
If the current factors is maintained, these are the forecasted numbers of cases in China alone:

February 7th 50.000 confirmed cases
February 14th 200.000 confirmed cases
February 24th 1.000.000 confirmed cases
February 27th 2.000.000 confirmed cases
February 29th 3.000.000 confirmed cases
March 7th 10.000.000 confirmed cases
March 10th 20.000.000 confirmed cases
March 19th 100.000.000 confirmed cases
March 31st 1 billion confirmed cases



Forecast of Feb 3rd:
New cases factor 1.18 (latest) and deaths factor kept at 1.17 (versus latest of 1.25)

February 7th 40.000 confirmed cases - 800 deaths
February 14th 125.000 confirmed cases - 2400 deaths
February 24th 650.000 confirmed cases - 11.000 deaths
February 27th 1.000.000 confirmed cases - 18.000 deaths
February 29th 1.500.000 confirmed cases - 25.000 deaths
March 7th 5.000.000 confirmed cases - 75.000 deaths
March 10th 8.000.000 confirmed cases - 120.000 deaths
March 19th 35.000.000 confirmed cases - 500.000 deaths
March 31st 250.000.000 confirmed cases - 3.000.000 deaths


Following the reporting of the latest numbers of confirmed cases and deaths, confirmed cases and deaths have evolved by the same factor as yesterday (resp. 118% and 117%), so I maintain yesterday's forecast.

Forecast as of February 4th:

February 4th 24.300 confirmed cases - 500 deaths
February 7th 40.000 confirmed cases - 800 deaths
February 14th 125.000 confirmed cases - 2400 deaths
February 24th 650.000 confirmed cases - 11.000 deaths
February 27th 1.000.000 confirmed cases - 18.000 deaths
February 29th 1.500.000 confirmed cases - 25.000 deaths
March 7th 5.000.000 confirmed cases - 75.000 deaths
March 10th 8.000.000 confirmed cases - 120.000 deaths
March 19th 35.000.000 confirmed cases - 500.000 deaths
March 31st 250.000.000 confirmed cases - 3.000.000 deaths

Numbers are growing at the same exponential pace despite the extended holidays and people in China limiting movements to essential only.


Forecast as of February 5th:
Factors adjusted to 116% for total confirmed cases and 115% for total deaths

February 4th Forecasted 24.300 confirmed cases - 500 deaths /// Actual 23.874 confirmed - 492 deaths
February 7th 37.000 confirmed cases - 750 deaths
February 14th 105.000 confirmed cases - 2000 deaths
February 24th 460.000 confirmed cases - 8.000 deaths
February 27th 725.000 confirmed cases - 12.250 deaths
February 29th 975.000 confirmed cases - 16.000 deaths
March 7th 2.750.000 confirmed cases - 43.000 deaths
March 10th 4.300.000 confirmed cases - 66.000 deaths
March 19th 16.000.000 confirmed cases - 230.000 deaths
March 31st 100.000.000 confirmed cases - 1.200.000 deaths

Factors to watch
-China returns to school/work on Monday 10th
-Health care system capacity already constrained in Hubei province, more and more doctors and nurses getting infected as well
-Japan has setup a quarantine ship to take Corona patients in Yokosuka with a capacity of 95 beds, have started carrying symptomatic passengers off the cruise ship to hospitals. Passengers who got off the cruise in Okinawa showing symptoms. Japan is a major risk point as many Chinese are still in the country, spread could happen much faster than in China due to population density.


Forecast as of February 5th:
Factors adjusted to 115% for total confirmed cases and 115% for total deaths

(February 4th Forecasted 24.300 confirmed cases - 500 deaths /// Actual 23.874 confirmed - 492 deaths)
February 7th 37.000 confirmed cases - 750 deaths
February 14th 100.000 confirmed cases - 2000 deaths
February 24th 400.000 confirmed cases - 8.000 deaths
February 27th 600.000 confirmed cases - 12.250 deaths
February 29th 800.000 confirmed cases - 16.000 deaths
March 7th 2.150.000 confirmed cases - 43.000 deaths
March 10th 3.300.000 confirmed cases - 66.000 deaths
March 19th 11.500.000 confirmed cases - 230.000 deaths
March 31st 61.000.000 confirmed cases - 1.200.000 deaths

The factors to watch:
-China returns to school/work on Monday 10th > >may be suspended. Schools closing until the end of February announced in Shanghai.
-Health care system capacity already constrained in Hubei province, more and more doctors and nurses getting infected as well. >> Beds being set up in event halls and gymnasiums
-Japan is a major risk point as many Chinese are still in the country, spread could happen much faster than in China due to population density.
-Diamond Princess cruise ship moored in Japan: 10 additional infections confirmed for 20 total infections.
-Risk from cruise ship in Hong Kong, as many passengers got off and are wandering around
-Flight ICN-LAS reportedly diverted to LAX due to Corona alarm
-New infections popping up right and left without prior links, people who haven't been in China recently
-Politicians in panic mode, Xi Jinping nowhere to be seen, Shinzo Abe tense
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:52 am

Diamond Princess now has 20 cases (10 previously reported + 10 detected). Of, as noted, 273 tested'

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/te ... ar-BBZHpDo

That was one infectious individual...
Winter is coming.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:00 am

lightsaber wrote:
Diamond Princess now has 20 cases (10 previously reported + 10 detected). Of, as noted, 273 tested'

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/te ... ar-BBZHpDo

That was one infectious individual...


It's just very easy to spread ANY virus on a cruise ship.

It won't surprise me that this will turn into a giant superspreader case (Although it already is one by definition, i.e. 1 spread to >15). I can also only hope that all the confirmed cases are mild one.

EDIT:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
The factors to watch:
-China returns to school/work on Monday 10th > >may be suspended. Schools closing until the end of February announced in Shanghai.
-Health care system capacity already constrained in Hubei province, more and more doctors and nurses getting infected as well. >> Beds being set up in event halls and gymnasiums
-Japan is a major risk point as many Chinese are still in the country, spread could happen much faster than in China due to population density.
-Diamond Princess cruise ship moored in Japan: 10 additional infections confirmed for 20 total infections.
-Risk from cruise ship in Hong Kong, as many passengers got off and are wandering around
-Flight ICN-LAS reportedly diverted to LAX due to Corona alarm
-New infections popping up right and left without prior links, people who haven't been in China recently
-Politicians in panic mode, Xi Jinping nowhere to be seen, Shinzo Abe tense


Xinnie the Pooh did make his first public appearance in a week:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... tbreak-can

But yes, otherwise he's in hiding mode.

P.S. I do agree that things can get bad in Japan - already many cases popping up here and there due to contact with Hubei tourists. Those cases can easily turn into exponential growth. Perhaps this is Abe's downfall? Last time a large crisis happen in Japan (2011 Earthquake/Tsunami) the PM of that time, Yoshinoki Noda, basically lost all supports and which is how Abe got back into power. Noda, of course, was the 6th Prime Minister of Japan in 6 years.
P.S. In terms of politicians in panic mode, there's also Carrie Lam of Hong Kong also. She's still clueless as to how to handle things since her puppet master Xinnie the Pooh is pulling a disappearing act.
 
yonahleung
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:38 am

The most important issue is that this coronavirus has the potential to crash our healthcare systems, like SARS. While traffic accidents and the seasonal flu does not.
From statistics available on the internet, some hospitals in Hubei have more than 100 medical personnel infected by the virus. If the healthcare system crashes, you will have a lot of collateral casualties not directly caused by the virus.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:12 am

trpmb6 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
lightsaber wrote:

We could help:
We have closets of PPE. I'm working in cleanrooms that use equivalent PPE, just Aerospace instead of medical. Respirators are still available. We produce for the military. Who cares if it has a NASA cert or MIL cert.

We also have the pharma companies. Just IV fluids help.

It is scary that the issue is in the world's factory and they are reserving supplies for themselves.

All of my high level PPE is US made. I'm a hazwopper, certified to be part of or to lead a rescue team in a hazardous chemical environment. China needs the suits we wear. Oh... I need respirator medical/ training again soon...

Lightsaber


I think Boeing donated 250,000 N95s, but that's not enough to even satisfy their needs for a day. I know the N95s I'm issued at work are also effective for protection from Viruses and Bacteria, but common dust masks are not.

The stockpiles we have in various businesses and government agencies won't make much of a dent, but those who could spare them seemingly have already offered them up. I'm pretty sure we won't be able to order more N95s for a long time now.


Don't underestimate the true benefit of even a simple dust mask though. It prevents you from making contact with your face from your hands. While it may seem minor it has major benefits.


Also direct splatter from when someone coughs or spits when they talk, but you'd have to notice quickly and dispose of the mask before the fluid seeps through. I think one of the major differences between "medical" masks/respirators and the kinds used for industrial purposes is the fluid resistant outer layer.
情報
 
dampfnudel
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:39 am

I really hope the rumors of a much higher death toll isn’t true because if it is, we may be facing something really horrible, something the people of Wuhan and Hubei province know all too well at this moment.
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art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:10 am

Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 4 3,235
Feb 5 3,887
Feb 6 3,694

Difference in last 2 days -5%

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 4 221,015
Feb 5 252,154
Feb 6 282,813

Source: http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/06/c_76264.htm
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:48 am

Wuhan doctors can only test 4,200 samples per day. In other words, a technical limitation is, in my opinion, forcing under reporting of the issue:
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/wu ... ar-BBZIdxP

All indications is that if a patient dies untested, they are not reported as 2029-nCOv

Second, anecdotal evidence is the new hospitals and beds are not enough. Rhoo Rhoo

Can we hope the end of cold and flu season also slows this disease? That is end of March.

Lightsaber

Late edit:
It looks like processing samples is limiting testing cruise ship passengers. They are still waiting for 170 tests.

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.newsweek ... %3famp%3d1

I hope this is contained as no one seems ready.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
N757ST
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:55 am

lightsaber wrote:
Wuhan doctors can only test 4,200 samples per day. In other words, a technical limitation is, in my opinion, forcing under reporting of the issue:
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/wu ... ar-BBZIdxP

All indications is that if a patient dies untested, they are not reported as 2029-nCOv

Second, anecdotal evidence is the new hospitals and beds are not enough. Rhoo Rhoo

Can we hope the end of cold and flu season also slows this disease? That is end of March.

Lightsaber

Late edit:
It looks like processing samples is limiting testing cruise ship passengers. They are still waiting for 170 tests.

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.newsweek ... %3famp%3d1

I hope this is contained as no one seems ready.

Lightsaber


This isn’t contained

This isn’t contained, not in the least. If outbreak spreads further in Japan watch for a faster cancellation of all flights, perhaps for a significant duration. Our best hope (USA) is unfortunately going to be isolation
eventually from much of Asia, which is obviously made easier by our geography.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:21 pm

Wuhan has just built a large new lab to test 10,000 samples per day. That is progress. I hate to say it, the CDC here had better start building.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/0 ... 758c4.html

What the link is missing is the ramp up rate (you do not build a lab that is designed to test 10,000/day and have all the equipment setup and staff trained immediately.

Sadly, even if China is trying to report fully, they cannot. I posted earlier that Wuhan's testing capability was up to 4,200 day. As they are reporting what, in my impression, is a high fraction of positive cases, it seems as if they are only testing individuals who visually have the illness. There were 2,987 new cases in the province. I do not know the total provincial testing capability, but it certainly seems as if a good majority of people tested are positive:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/coronav ... hubei.html

I wonder what fraction are the type A flu going around the vaccine missed.

I agree with N757ST, this isn't contained, but it isn't a breakout (yet) in the USA.

Late edit:
How is the supply of influenza test kits? I assume ok, but I do not know.
Winter is coming.
 
uta999
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 12:35 pm

If an Eco-terrorist group ever wanted to seriously disrupt globalisation, population growth, weaken demand and cut air travel dramatically, this would be the way to do it.
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Waterbomber2
Posts: 1349
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 1:58 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Wuhan has just built a large new lab to test 10,000 samples per day. That is progress. I hate to say it, the CDC here had better start building.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/0 ... 758c4.html

What the link is missing is the ramp up rate (you do not build a lab that is designed to test 10,000/day and have all the equipment setup and staff trained immediately.

Sadly, even if China is trying to report fully, they cannot. I posted earlier that Wuhan's testing capability was up to 4,200 day. As they are reporting what, in my impression, is a high fraction of positive cases, it seems as if they are only testing individuals who visually have the illness. There were 2,987 new cases in the province. I do not know the total provincial testing capability, but it certainly seems as if a good majority of people tested are positive:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/coronav ... hubei.html

I wonder what fraction are the type A flu going around the vaccine missed.

I agree with N757ST, this isn't contained, but it isn't a breakout (yet) in the USA.

Late edit:
How is the supply of influenza test kits? I assume ok, but I do not know.


I think that you are right.
Some are accusing China of intentionally underreporting, but frankly, they are posting numbers of suspected cases and possible cases, it seems though that the numbers of suspected cases are growing much faster than their testing capabilities.
The 10.000 daily testing capability enhancement is good news, however by the time that that is ramped up, the actual cases may be growing by the hundreds of thousands.

Even if we consider that the current rate of increase of confirned cases includes all new cases, by the end of February a rate of 100.000's new contagions per day will be reached.

Unfortunately, I'm afraid that we have already reached this rate of contagion.
The Japanese evacuation flights all had infected people aboard, and considering how small the samples size is compared to the size of Wuhan, the extent of the infections becomes apparent.

By my estimates, we should reach the million of infections by this weekend.
The city is locked down so that s a good thing, but the real concern is all these new cases popping up all over the place.

The young Chinese who tested positive in Kyoto, Japan, had fallen ill on the 25th and visited a hospital on Jan 27th, and again on Jan29th, and was discharged each time as pneumonia was not detected until he visited another hospital on the 4th. So he may have infected doctors and nurses and a lot of other people along the way, due to lack of thoroughness of the first hospital.
Who knows how many dozens of cases like this are going on in Japan?
 
yonahleung
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:55 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:32 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Wuhan doctors can only test 4,200 samples per day. In other words, a technical limitation is, in my opinion, forcing under reporting of the issue:
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/wu ... ar-BBZIdxP

All indications is that if a patient dies untested, they are not reported as 2029-nCOv

Second, anecdotal evidence is the new hospitals and beds are not enough. Rhoo Rhoo

Can we hope the end of cold and flu season also slows this disease? That is end of March.

Lightsaber

Late edit:
It looks like processing samples is limiting testing cruise ship passengers. They are still waiting for 170 tests.

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.newsweek ... %3famp%3d1

I hope this is contained as no one seems ready.

Lightsaber

The difference from 2003 is that we now have PRC Chinese literally roaming everywhere on earth out of China. I afraid we have already passed the point of no return due to the incubation period.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:58 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Wuhan has just built a large new lab to test 10,000 samples per day. That is progress. I hate to say it, the CDC here had better start building.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202002/0 ... 758c4.html

What the link is missing is the ramp up rate (you do not build a lab that is designed to test 10,000/day and have all the equipment setup and staff trained immediately.

Sadly, even if China is trying to report fully, they cannot. I posted earlier that Wuhan's testing capability was up to 4,200 day. As they are reporting what, in my impression, is a high fraction of positive cases, it seems as if they are only testing individuals who visually have the illness. There were 2,987 new cases in the province. I do not know the total provincial testing capability, but it certainly seems as if a good majority of people tested are positive:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/coronav ... hubei.html

I wonder what fraction are the type A flu going around the vaccine missed.

I agree with N757ST, this isn't contained, but it isn't a breakout (yet) in the USA.

Late edit:
How is the supply of influenza test kits? I assume ok, but I do not know.


I think that you are right.
Some are accusing China of intentionally underreporting, but frankly, they are posting numbers of suspected cases and possible cases, it seems though that the numbers of suspected cases are growing much faster than their testing capabilities.
The 10.000 daily testing capability enhancement is good news, however by the time that that is ramped up, the actual cases may be growing by the hundreds of thousands.

Even if we consider that the current rate of increase of confirned cases includes all new cases, by the end of February a rate of 100.000's new contagions per day will be reached.

Unfortunately, I'm afraid that we have already reached this rate of contagion.
The Japanese evacuation flights all had infected people aboard, and considering how small the samples size is compared to the size of Wuhan, the extent of the infections becomes apparent.

By my estimates, we should reach the million of infections by this weekend.
The city is locked down so that s a good thing, but the real concern is all these new cases popping up all over the place.

The young Chinese who tested positive in Kyoto, Japan, had fallen ill on the 25th and visited a hospital on Jan 27th, and again on Jan29th, and was discharged each time as pneumonia was not detected until he visited another hospital on the 4th. So he may have infected doctors and nurses and a lot of other people along the way, due to lack of thoroughness of the first hospital.
Who knows how many dozens of cases like this are going on in Japan?

I want to expand on this. I will attribute to incompetence instead of malace.

Before the USA was waiting for results. 11 positive, 162 negative, 82 waiting; then a test kit was developed:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... ar-BBZG7R1

Hope is to send to all state designated lab, with CDC confirming (double testing):

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.foxnews. ... s-labs.amp

I read a link that these kits were to be sent to 100 labs, but I believe the above hope is a better quote. So how many kits are ready?

I believe 250,000 minimum are needed by this weekend (not going to happen). No, I do not believe in 250,000 cases, but we have a large potentially exposed population that must be tested.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
zakuivcustom
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Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:14 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Some are accusing China of intentionally underreporting, but frankly, they are posting numbers of suspected cases and possible cases, it seems though that the numbers of suspected cases are growing much faster than their testing capabilities.


This is what I was suggesting for awhile also.

Some of the "exponential" growth (the model you are using) may also be attribute to this - China especially Wuhan/Hubei area simply can't process the test result fast enough. Thus, some people may be tested but the result won't be posted until a few days later...only for more people to try to get tested in between.

lightsaber wrote:
I hope this is contained as no one seems ready.


Which is what makes this a pain - if so-call "developed" nation are not ready for this, what makes one think China would be ready for this, especially with Wuhan not exactly being the forefront of development (It's "Tier 2" compare to "Tier 1" i.e. Beijing-Tianjin/Shanghai/Guangzhou-Shenzhen).
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:09 pm

The lockdown is unprecedented in scale and experts have questioned its effectiveness. Wuhan and Hubei Province have borne the brunt of the epidemic as the sudden shutdown of transportation links into and around the area slowed the shipping of vital medical supplies. The fatality rate in Wuhan is 4.1 percent and 2.8 percent in Hubei, compared to 0.17 percent elsewhere in mainland China.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/worl ... china.html

I've mostly quit reading the NYT, but this article is one of their typical 'smother the new', and very good. But on to my main point.

Death rate in Wuhan 4.1%, outside of the Wuhan area the rest of China has a death rate of .17 percent - almost 25 times lower. And China is treating the whole Wuhan area as criminals. Read the talk coming from on high, read the demand of door to door temperature demands, read the requirement to go to a death camp (my words) where there is grossly inadequate care, supplies, and caring.

The death rate in the rest of the world with some 200 cases is now at 2, one percent. And those two are somewhat one off.

I iterate - this is what is needed:
Fast detection of possible outbreaks
Fast and extensive lab work to confirm disease presence
All people in defined areas to reduce their exposure to other people by some defined percent
Public health workers to track and assess likely contacts
Appropriate isolation of those most likely to contract the disease.

In other words wonky, maybe nerdy Scientifically proven steps to protect the public health. Some of those steps will actually cost money. Words are cheap and authoritarian maximum leaders announcing expensive steps that cost other people money are worse than useless, they are counter productive.
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:25 pm

With much sadness, the doctor who did his duty and reported the Coronavirus (and was reprimanded) has passed away:

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.foxnews. ... s-labs.amp

zakuivcustom wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Some are accusing China of intentionally underreporting, but frankly, they are posting numbers of suspected cases and possible cases, it seems though that the numbers of suspected cases are growing much faster than their testing capabilities.


This is what I was suggesting for awhile also.

Some of the "exponential" growth (the model you are using) may also be attribute to this - China especially Wuhan/Hubei area simply can't process the test result fast enough. Thus, some people may be tested but the result won't be posted until a few days later...only for more people to try to get tested in between.

lightsaber wrote:
I hope this is contained as no one seems ready.


Which is what makes this a pain - if so-call "developed" nation are not ready for this, what makes one think China would be ready for this, especially with Wuhan not exactly being the forefront of development (It's "Tier 2" compare to "Tier 1" i.e. Beijing-Tianjin/Shanghai/Guangzhou-Shenzhen).


Expanding, I would put Wuhan, in terms of medical care, a tier above a dozen world capitol cities which all have cities a further tier down...

Vaccinations made the world (mostly) immune. My grandfather was a tiny city surgeon/ER doctor (too small a hospital to not also work the floor). He was always livid when a child was damaged (for life) because parents wouldn't vaccinate.

Now we have something where there is no vaccine. How long will it take to grow enough vaccine?

My concerns:
Test kits (understand magnitude)
oxygen
Steroids to reduce lung inflammation
PPE
And then hospital space.
Then developing a vaccine.

It took until a few days ago to develop a test kit.

Will this be like Spanish influenza where high school gyms and community dance halls become hospital wards? I guess we have a use for those empty department stores... :duck:

This is such a slow outbreak...

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:32 pm

It continues to be a good possibility that there is no outbreak, that is, where there is scientifically valid public health steps being taken. WHO has a budget of $9 million according to one report. The US has been cutting public health spending. States are strapped for cash. This epidemic was predictable*, why anybody should be surprised that one has occured amazes me, just proves humans are not rational.

* China may have been the most predictable locale and the when is never known.
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THS214
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Doctor who warned of Corona virus has died of Corona

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:34 pm

Doctor who warned of Corona virus has died of Corona virus. Looks like the virus is a lot more dangerous than told. At least in Asia (their lungs are more prone for the virus (more receptors for the virus) than people in the west).

How many have died of the Corona virus that never had hospital treatment or autopsy? In China a lot of people. Numbers are more than the official.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/03/asia ... index.html
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Doctor who warned of Corona virus has died of Corona

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:35 pm

The virus is a whole lot more dangerous than told, especially if the are in the Wuhan area. Outside of it, maybe not so much.
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:37 pm

Thought, China has 1.2 billion people, but not enough hospital beds for 28,000?!?

The USA has 931,000 beds (down from peak of 1.5 million).

https://www.statista.com/statistics/185 ... ince-2001/

Something isn't adding up.

Lightsaber

Late edit:
Everyone must daily report body temperature.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/ ... ar-BBZJ5jl

Don't worry, this is just like a flu.
Winter is coming.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3568
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:29 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
The lockdown is unprecedented in scale and experts have questioned its effectiveness. Wuhan and Hubei Province have borne the brunt of the epidemic as the sudden shutdown of transportation links into and around the area slowed the shipping of vital medical supplies. The fatality rate in Wuhan is 4.1 percent and 2.8 percent in Hubei, compared to 0.17 percent elsewhere in mainland China.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/worl ... china.html

I've mostly quit reading the NYT, but this article is one of their typical 'smother the new', and very good. But on to my main point.

Death rate in Wuhan 4.1%, outside of the Wuhan area the rest of China has a death rate of .17 percent - almost 25 times lower. And China is treating the whole Wuhan area as criminals. Read the talk coming from on high, read the demand of door to door temperature demands, read the requirement to go to a death camp (my words) where there is grossly inadequate care, supplies, and caring.

The death rate in the rest of the world with some 200 cases is now at 2, one percent. And those two are somewhat one off.

I iterate - this is what is needed:
Fast detection of possible outbreaks
Fast and extensive lab work to confirm disease presence
All people in defined areas to reduce their exposure to other people by some defined percent
Public health workers to track and assess likely contacts
Appropriate isolation of those most likely to contract the disease.

In other words wonky, maybe nerdy Scientifically proven steps to protect the public health. Some of those steps will actually cost money. Words are cheap and authoritarian maximum leaders announcing expensive steps that cost other people money are worse than useless, they are counter productive.


To certain extent, China is literally sacrificing people of Wuhan/Hubei. What they really got a late start on is to focus even more resources there instead of scrambling on various measures.

lightsaber wrote:
With much sadness, the doctor who did his duty and reported the Coronavirus (and was reprimanded) has passed away:


RIP to a true hero of people. Without him, you would be talking about a much more widespread outbreak that Chinese govt hide for months, SARS style.
 
yonahleung
Posts: 75
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:09 pm

lightsaber wrote:


Will this be like Spanish influenza where high school gyms and community dance halls become hospital wards? I guess we have a use for those empty department stores... :duck:

This is such a slow outbreak...

Lightsaber


Already happening. They have turned the Wuhan Convention Centre into the "Ark Hospital" and, guess what, there were no doctors, and more than 1000 patients were sharing a washroom.

What's even worse is that someone was allegedly sent there with a fake positive. I guess that fake positive could be her death warrant.

Image
More (disgusting) photos:
https://lihkg.com/thread/1866390/page/1
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:56 pm

lightsaber wrote:
With much sadness, the doctor who did his duty and reported the Coronavirus (and was reprimanded) has passed away:


https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... s-outbreak

And with this, the Chinese propaganda is at it again with the doctor apparently now "critically ill" instead of dead.

According to places like Weibo, though, the doctor heartbeat had stopped around 2100 (Wuhan Time), only to be place on ECMO (Life Support) a few hours later. Weibo among with numerous Chinese Social Media had been exploding the whole night regarding the doctor's death, with tons of messages criticizing the govt.

In another word, "The leader" is not going to let the doctor passed away as that would create a "instability".

Yes...I hope Doctor Li Wenliang is not dead yet. But chances are, it's all propanganda. :cry2:
 
EIBPI
Posts: 192
Joined: Wed Aug 21, 2019 4:15 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:37 pm

 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3568
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:25 pm

EIBPI wrote:


The last few pictures are defintely genuine - they are turning Wuhan convention center into a giant quarantine center.

Not sure about the first one, though.

BTW...
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/06/asia/li- ... index.html

Dr. Li Wenliang has been officially pronounced dead, after conflicting initial reports (Initial report around 2100 said Dr. Li was dead, only to have a new report saying that he's "critically ill" around midnight 2/7 Wuhan Time).

Sigh...RIP indeed. Dr. Li, you won't be forgotten! :cry2: :cry2: :cry2:
Last edited by zakuivcustom on Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20556
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:28 pm

EIBPI wrote:

At least during the Spanish Influenza volunteers brought water, soup, and some food.

Ughh... Reading that twitter scared me. My heart goes out. No one deserves that level of government incompetence.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3568
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:03 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Ughh... Reading that twitter scared me. My heart goes out. No one deserves that level of government incompetence.


Sigh...

Local medical professionals are VERY short-staffed as-is. Many of those medical professionals caught the virus themselves also.

BTW, politically this will probably be the biggest test Xinnie the Pooh faces in his CCP leadership. So far he keeps wanting to assert himself as being "center of the universe" when it comes to the fight against the outbreak, but at the same time, keep pulling off disappearing act. Then there's Li Keqiang (China's #2), who technically was put in charge of the whole thing but perhaps, doesn't want to make Xinnie the Pooh feel threaten, and thus, feels almost timid in whatever efforts he's doing.

The bottom line is, the CCP internal rife and corruption are probably going to exposed this time around. Meanwhile, the regular people suffers.
 
User avatar
PixelPilot
Posts: 592
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:03 pm

lightsaber wrote:
EIBPI wrote:

At least during the Spanish Influenza volunteers brought water, soup, and some food.

Ughh... Reading that twitter scared me. My heart goes out. No one deserves that level of government incompetence.

Lightsaber


That is some scary shit.
Most likely understaffed but still. What a environment to be in.

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