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EIBPI
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:27 pm

How do you provide any kind of care in those conditions? If you did not have Corona going in there, you certainly will once inside.

This is China, a comparatively developed country, what happens if it starts to pick up speed in India, Indonesia, etc.

The scary thing is that I am not certain we would actually be able to do any better in Europe or the US.
 
EIBPI
Posts: 192
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:39 pm

In just one day, an extra 1,000 extra patients in Hubei are in a critical condition. These people will likely be taking up care and medical resources for two weeks.

Even with all the money and resources, how do you manage that?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:56 pm

EIBPI wrote:
How do you provide any kind of care in those conditions? If you did not have Corona going in there, you certainly will once inside.

This is China, a comparatively developed country, what happens if it starts to pick up speed in India, Indonesia, etc.

The scary thing is that I am not certain we would actually be able to do any better in Europe or the US.

I've posted before, no one is prepared. Prior pandemics took community outreach to nurse the population. We do not have much of that anymore.


I debate between incompetent and malace as the cause in the numbers reported. My opinion is they do not pass any sniff test.

I do believe some percentage of people seem to be immune.

Oh well, old lessons will be relearned.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:48 am

Will this be the Chernobyl of China?

The constant downplaying and lack of transparency here is eerily similar.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:13 am

Up to 61 confirmed case on the Diamond Princess now, with 41 new cases out of 173 tested.

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6350485
 
maint123
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 1:20 am

And India is holding Asia's largest auto show in Delhi with heavy chinese auto presence.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.autoca ... 020-415811
"Coronavirus threat a concern for Auto Expo 2020
4th Feb 2020 4:13 pm
With Auto Expo 2020 set to feature heavy Chinese presence, concerns have emerged relating to the deadly Novel Coronavirus, which originated in China.

Amaan Ahmed
UPDATE:

SIAM president Rajan Wadhera has issued a statement today saying that all Chinese companies participating at Auto Expo 2020 will have Indian employees and representatives manning their respective stalls. There will be no visitors or delegations from China at the motor show. Additionally, the organisers are also taking precautionary measures – such as making hand sanitizers available – and creating awareness about dealing with the Coronavirus."
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:17 am

Am I the only one who thinks:
1. Everyone must report their temperature daily
2. Everyone sick is being rounded up into facilities that are not conducive to survival.

Is Distopian?
Late Edit, link for reporting temperature:
https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-r ... rus-2020-2

Rounding up sick residents:
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... ?_amp=true

zakuivcustom wrote:
Up to 61 confirmed case on the Diamond Princess now, with 41 new cases out of 173 tested.

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6350485

Out of 273 tested.

22.3%. I realize they tested the most likely, but now they need to verify no one else caught a fever.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:23 am

lightsaber wrote:
Am I the only one who thinks:
1. Everyone must report their temperature daily
2. Everyone sick is being rounded up into facilities that are not conducive to survival.

Is Distopian?


zakuivcustom wrote:
Up to 61 confirmed case on the Diamond Princess now, with 41 new cases out of 173 tested.

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6350485

Out of 273 tested.

22.3%. I realize they tested the most likely, but now they need to verify no one else caught a fever.

Lightsaber


It was 41/173 today adding to the previous 20/100 for a total of 61/273 to be 100% correct :).

I think those are all the case they tested?

But either way, this bump Japan's total to 86.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:36 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Forecast of Feb 2nd:
Confirmed cases are now increasing at a rate factor of 1.21, death rates at 1.17.
If the current factors is maintained, these are the forecasted numbers of cases in China alone:

February 7th 50.000 confirmed cases
February 14th 200.000 confirmed cases
February 24th 1.000.000 confirmed cases
February 27th 2.000.000 confirmed cases
February 29th 3.000.000 confirmed cases
March 7th 10.000.000 confirmed cases
March 10th 20.000.000 confirmed cases
March 19th 100.000.000 confirmed cases
March 31st 1 billion confirmed cases



Forecast of Feb 3rd:
New cases factor 1.18 (latest) and deaths factor kept at 1.17 (versus latest of 1.25)

February 7th 40.000 confirmed cases - 800 deaths
February 14th 125.000 confirmed cases - 2400 deaths
February 24th 650.000 confirmed cases - 11.000 deaths
February 27th 1.000.000 confirmed cases - 18.000 deaths
February 29th 1.500.000 confirmed cases - 25.000 deaths
March 7th 5.000.000 confirmed cases - 75.000 deaths
March 10th 8.000.000 confirmed cases - 120.000 deaths
March 19th 35.000.000 confirmed cases - 500.000 deaths
March 31st 250.000.000 confirmed cases - 3.000.000 deaths


Following the reporting of the latest numbers of confirmed cases and deaths, confirmed cases and deaths have evolved by the same factor as yesterday (resp. 118% and 117%), so I maintain yesterday's forecast.

Forecast as of February 4th:

February 4th 24.300 confirmed cases - 500 deaths
February 7th 40.000 confirmed cases - 800 deaths
February 14th 125.000 confirmed cases - 2400 deaths
February 24th 650.000 confirmed cases - 11.000 deaths
February 27th 1.000.000 confirmed cases - 18.000 deaths
February 29th 1.500.000 confirmed cases - 25.000 deaths
March 7th 5.000.000 confirmed cases - 75.000 deaths
March 10th 8.000.000 confirmed cases - 120.000 deaths
March 19th 35.000.000 confirmed cases - 500.000 deaths
March 31st 250.000.000 confirmed cases - 3.000.000 deaths

Numbers are growing at the same exponential pace despite the extended holidays and people in China limiting movements to essential only.


Forecast as of February 5th:
Factors adjusted to 116% for total confirmed cases and 115% for total deaths

February 4th Forecasted 24.300 confirmed cases - 500 deaths /// Actual 23.874 confirmed - 492 deaths
February 7th 37.000 confirmed cases - 750 deaths
February 14th 105.000 confirmed cases - 2000 deaths
February 24th 460.000 confirmed cases - 8.000 deaths
February 27th 725.000 confirmed cases - 12.250 deaths
February 29th 975.000 confirmed cases - 16.000 deaths
March 7th 2.750.000 confirmed cases - 43.000 deaths
March 10th 4.300.000 confirmed cases - 66.000 deaths
March 19th 16.000.000 confirmed cases - 230.000 deaths
March 31st 100.000.000 confirmed cases - 1.200.000 deaths

Factors to watch
-China returns to school/work on Monday 10th
-Health care system capacity already constrained in Hubei province, more and more doctors and nurses getting infected as well
-Japan has setup a quarantine ship to take Corona patients in Yokosuka with a capacity of 95 beds, have started carrying symptomatic passengers off the cruise ship to hospitals. Passengers who got off the cruise in Okinawa showing symptoms. Japan is a major risk point as many Chinese are still in the country, spread could happen much faster than in China due to population density.


Forecast as of February 5th:
Factors adjusted to 115% for total confirmed cases and 115% for total deaths

(February 4th Forecasted 24.300 confirmed cases - 500 deaths /// Actual 23.874 confirmed - 492 deaths)
February 7th 37.000 confirmed cases - 750 deaths
February 14th 100.000 confirmed cases - 2000 deaths
February 24th 400.000 confirmed cases - 8.000 deaths
February 27th 600.000 confirmed cases - 12.250 deaths
February 29th 800.000 confirmed cases - 16.000 deaths
March 7th 2.150.000 confirmed cases - 43.000 deaths
March 10th 3.300.000 confirmed cases - 66.000 deaths
March 19th 11.500.000 confirmed cases - 230.000 deaths
March 31st 61.000.000 confirmed cases - 1.200.000 deaths

The factors to watch:
-China returns to school/work on Monday 10th > >may be suspended. Schools closing until the end of February announced in Shanghai.
-Health care system capacity already constrained in Hubei province, more and more doctors and nurses getting infected as well. >> Beds being set up in event halls and gymnasiums
-Japan is a major risk point as many Chinese are still in the country, spread could happen much faster than in China due to population density.
-Diamond Princess cruise ship moored in Japan: 10 additional infections confirmed for 20 total infections.
-Risk from cruise ship in Hong Kong, as many passengers got off and are wandering around
-Flight ICN-LAS reportedly diverted to LAX due to Corona alarm
-New infections popping up right and left without prior links, people who haven't been in China recently
-Politicians in panic mode, Xi Jinping nowhere to be seen, Shinzo Abe tense



Forecast as of February 6th:
Factors adjusted to 115% for total confirmed cases and 113% for total deaths
The factor has been adjusted for deaths from 115%, total confirmed cases has not been adjusted as it is already the most conservative and is capped by the testing capabilities and not by the actual trend. The forecast will now be maintained until major changes in trend and serves as a best-case conservative scenario based on data from the past 6 days.

(February 4th Forecasted 24.300 confirmed cases - 500 deaths /// Actual 23.874 confirmed - 492 deaths)
February 7th 37.000 confirmed cases - 720 deaths
February 14th 100.000 confirmed cases - 1700 deaths
February 24th 400.000 confirmed cases - 5800 deaths
February 27th 600.000 confirmed cases - 8.300 deaths
February 29th 800.000 confirmed cases - 10.600 deaths
March 7th 2.150.000 confirmed cases - 25.000 deaths
March 10th 3.300.000 confirmed cases - 36.000 deaths
March 19th 11.500.000 confirmed cases - 108.000 deaths
March 31st 61.000.000 confirmed cases - 470.000 deaths

The factors to watch:
-China returns to school/work on Monday 10th > >may be suspended. Schools closing until the end of February announced in Shanghai.
-Still no decision on keeping factories in China closed on Monday.
-Health care system capacity already constrained in Hubei province, more and more doctors and nurses getting infected as well. Beds set up in event halls and gymnasiums are being occupied at a huge pace, too few health care workers to take care of patients, risk of further contagion at those locations.
-Still no global response. Trump savoring his victory, in the meanwhile the global supply chain is at risk of collapse.
-Japan is a major risk point as many Chinese are still in the country, spread could happen much faster than in China due to population density.> Total infections present in its borders quickly reaching 100, a majority from the Diamond Princess, the risk of spread to health workers and others is undeniable.
-Diamond Princess cruise ship moored in Japan: 10 additional infections confirmed for 20 total infections. > Now up to 61 total infections.
-Risk from cruise ship in Hong Kong, as many passengers got off and are wandering around > An additional cruise ship, the Westerdam has been denied mooring in Japan by order of PM Abe.
-New infections popping up right and left without prior links, people who haven't been in China recently
-Politicians in panic mode, Xi Jinping nowhere to be seen, Shinzo Abe tense
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:53 am

200 test kits sent to US hospitals for faster diagnosis. Each can test 700-800 patient samples.

Or enough to test 140,000 to 160,000 samples (I would assume each patient found with Coronavirus is tested 3 to 20 times before release).

Lightsaber
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Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 6:16 am

lightsaber wrote:
200 test kits sent to US hospitals for faster diagnosis. Each can test 700-800 patient samples.

Or enough to test 140,000 to 160,000 samples (I would assume each patient found with Coronavirus is tested 3 to 20 times before release).

Lightsaber


That's a good start, good job by the CDC.
There are also many negative tests, so many more of these will be needed.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:16 am

PixelPilot wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
EIBPI wrote:

At least during the Spanish Influenza volunteers brought water, soup, and some food.

Ughh... Reading that twitter scared me. My heart goes out. No one deserves that level of government incompetence.

Lightsaber


That is some scary shit.
Most likely understaffed but still. What a environment to be in.


With medical staff stretched thin as it is, plus all the information of many medical personnel already infected...
I really wonder how would one staff a place like this? Yes, they could ask for volunteers from the public, and I really wonder who would bite. Not a safe line of work, by any measure.

Otherwise, people have to be ORDERED to work there. Not a nice order to receive, for sure.
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:54 am

Cruise ship turned away from Japan:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/amp.miamiher ... 40568.html

"The Japanese government will not allow a cruise ship operated by Miami-based Carnival Corporation to visit the country as scheduled for fear of coronavirus contamination.

The Holland America Line Westerdam ship was scheduled to visit several Japanese cities and pick up new passengers in Yokohama, outside Tokyo, on Feb. 15. The cruise originally departed from Hong Kong on Feb. 1."

This gets stranger and stranger. Hong Kong closed their cruise port. So where does the Westerdam go?

I forgot to post the link on the test kits sent out by CDC in my last post:
https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020 ... ronavirus/

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 10:51 am

Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 4 3,235
Feb 5 3,887
Feb 6 3,694
Feb 7 3,143

Change in last 2 days -15%

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 4 221,015
Feb 5 252,154
Feb 6 282,813
Feb 7 314,028

Change in last 2 days +11%

Source: http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/07/c_76323.htm
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:05 am

The official figures from China above look strange to me. If the number of people having had close contact with infected patients is rising, how is it that the number of reported new infections is decreasing?
 
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c933103
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:12 am

Phosphorus wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
At least during the Spanish Influenza volunteers brought water, soup, and some food.

Ughh... Reading that twitter scared me. My heart goes out. No one deserves that level of government incompetence.

Lightsaber


That is some scary shit.
Most likely understaffed but still. What a environment to be in.


With medical staff stretched thin as it is, plus all the information of many medical personnel already infected...
I really wonder how would one staff a place like this? Yes, they could ask for volunteers from the public, and I really wonder who would bite. Not a safe line of work, by any measure.

Otherwise, people have to be ORDERED to work there. Not a nice order to receive, for sure.

They are staffed by the military including medical staffs from the PLA and other staffs. But from report, it seems like they're only deploying a very few number of staffs into them.

lightsaber wrote:
Cruise ship turned away from Japan:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/amp.miamiher ... 40568.html

"The Japanese government will not allow a cruise ship operated by Miami-based Carnival Corporation to visit the country as scheduled for fear of coronavirus contamination.

The Holland America Line Westerdam ship was scheduled to visit several Japanese cities and pick up new passengers in Yokohama, outside Tokyo, on Feb. 15. The cruise originally departed from Hong Kong on Feb. 1."

This gets stranger and stranger. Hong Kong closed their cruise port. So where does the Westerdam go?

I forgot to post the link on the test kits sent out by CDC in my last post:
https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020 ... ronavirus/

Lightsaber

They have also been rejected by Korea, Taiwan, Philippines.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate. 求同存異. よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:06 pm

Indonesia has yet to report a case, but due to large Chinese ties, a study predicts they should have cases.

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/amp.theguard ... -indonesia

"As of Thursday, Indonesia said it had no confirmed cases of the coronavirus and that 238 people evacuated from Wuhan, the centre of the outbreak, had not shown symptoms or been tested."

Errr... Not tested?!? What could go wrong here...

c933103 wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

That is some scary shit.
Most likely understaffed but still. What a environment to be in.


With medical staff stretched thin as it is, plus all the information of many medical personnel already infected...
I really wonder how would one staff a place like this? Yes, they could ask for volunteers from the public, and I really wonder who would bite. Not a safe line of work, by any measure.

Otherwise, people have to be ORDERED to work there. Not a nice order to receive, for sure.

They are staffed by the military including medical staffs from the PLA and other staffs. But from report, it seems like they're only deploying a very few number of staffs into them.

lightsaber wrote:
Cruise ship turned away from Japan:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/amp.miamiher ... 40568.html

"The Japanese government will not allow a cruise ship operated by Miami-based Carnival Corporation to visit the country as scheduled for fear of coronavirus contamination.

The Holland America Line Westerdam ship was scheduled to visit several Japanese cities and pick up new passengers in Yokohama, outside Tokyo, on Feb. 15. The cruise originally departed from Hong Kong on Feb. 1."

This gets stranger and stranger. Hong Kong closed their cruise port. So where does the Westerdam go?

I forgot to post the link on the test kits sent out by CDC in my last post:
https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020 ... ronavirus/

Lightsaber

They have also been rejected by Korea, Taiwan, Philippines.

The passengers/cruise ship being rejected by 5 nations puts them in limbo. Cruising towards Japan.
Rejected by Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Hong Kong, and Japan.

I believe that leaves China, Macau, and maybe Vietnam? Rhoo Rhoo.


Lightsaber

Late edit:

As I was composing the last email, Guam is baring this cruise ship:

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday ... 4688716002
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Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 3:38 pm

art wrote:
The official figures from China above look strange to me. If the number of people having had close contact with infected patients is rising, how is it that the number of reported new infections is decreasing?


They are not strange, Lightsaber earlier explained that their testing capacity is about 4200 tests per day currently, so they are limited in the number of cases that they can confirm...

If we believe earlier projections from when testing capacity was not a limiting factor, we should have had at least 37.000-50.000 cases.
Again, these are the most conservative projections, in reality we should be well into the 6 digits and could be hitting 7 digits (ie millions of cases) of cases this weekend.
As for the deaths, only confirmed cases who died are counted, no time nor resources to check dead people.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3568
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:29 pm

Per multiple Taiwan news (It's probably on some mainland news also...)
https://tw.appledaily.com/international ... LKWPCVE34/

Multiple cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Chengdu are imposing a "soft lockdown" beginning midnight tonight, restricting the movement of people to their own residential area, and also require pre-registration of any vehicles entering the cities (I believe this is done to prevent a total shutdown of goods coming in and out). The same applied to the entire province of Hubei (which was 80% lockdown already) and Anhui.

And this is another list of other cities that are lockdown, including cities like Hangzhou, Ningbo, Zhengzhou, etc. that was already on a "soft lockdown" since the 4th.
https://www.setn.com/news.aspx?NewsID=685458

EDIT:
Full list (as of 2/7...since the list should be updated with Shenzhen and Tianjin and Chengdu)
Since 1/23: Wuhan, Tianmen, Ezhou, Xiantao, Qianjiang, and also Zhijiang under Yichang; all in Hubei
Since 1/24: Huanggang, Xianning (inc Chibi), Xiaogan, Shiyan, Huangshi, Jingmen, Yichang (inc. Dangyang), Enshi; all in Hubei
Since 1/25: Suizhou, Hubei
Since 1/31: Yinchuan & Wuzhong, Ningxia; Wenzhou District and Liangping District, Chongqing
Since 2/2: Wenzhou, Zhejiang
Since 2/4: Hangzhou & Ningbo & Yueqing (under Wenzhou), Zhejing; Zhengzhou & Zhumadian, Henan; Linyi, Shandong; Harbin, Heilongjiang; Nanjing & Nantong & Xuzhou, Jiangsu; Fuzhou, Fujian; Jingdezhen, Jiangxi
Since 2/5: Kunming, Yunnan; Qingdao & Jinan & Tai'an & Rizhao, Shandong; Nanchang, Jiangxi; Hefei, Anhui; Nanning, Guangxi. Also the entire Liaoning Province.
Since 2/6: The rest of Jiangxi Province
Since 2/7: Guangzhou, Guangdong. The rest of Hubei Province.
Since 2/8 (So far): Shenzhen, Guangdong; Chengdu, Sichuan. The rest of Anhui Province.

Not all lockdown are created equal to one another, though - some places (i.e. Wuhan) are more restrictive than others.
 
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United787
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:03 pm

Today, Trump was asked
“Are you concerned that China is covering up the full extent of the coronavirus?”

His response:
"No, China’s working very hard. Late last night I had a very good talk with President Xi and mostly we talked about the coronavirus. They’re working really hard and I think they’re doing a very professional job. They’re in touch with … (the World Health Organization), CDC also."

Does anyone on this earth, besides 40% of the US (his base), believe that Trump's response is an informed one based on information provided to him by the CIA, CDC, State Dept. etc? Or, is it just his gut from his conversation with Xi. I will take the later.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coro ... 879b8447f6
 
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casinterest
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:45 pm

Vaccine seems to be moving along quite quickly.
April seems a tad bit over enthusiastic though.


https://www.axios.com/vaccine-coronavir ... 369dd.html

T
he National Institutes of Health and biotech company Moderna, one of several companies working to develop treatment for the novel coronavirus, are on track for human clinical trials for a vaccine in two and half months, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases director Anthony Fauci, said in a press briefing Friday.



The stock holders seem enthusiastic.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRNA/
+15% today.
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:59 pm

United787 wrote:
Today, Trump was asked
“Are you concerned that China is covering up the full extent of the coronavirus?”

His response:
"No, China’s working very hard. Late last night I had a very good talk with President Xi and mostly we talked about the coronavirus. They’re working really hard and I think they’re doing a very professional job. They’re in touch with … (the World Health Organization), CDC also."

Does anyone on this earth, besides 40% of the US (his base), believe that Trump's response is an informed one based on information provided to him by the CIA, CDC, State Dept. etc? Or, is it just his gut from his conversation with Xi. I will take the later.


Sure...of course China is doing a "good" job - they're literally using draconian measures (see the "soft lockdown" I posted earlier...but in some cities they're imposing restriction down to how many people in a household can leave their home in a day) mainly NOT b/c they really care about people, but b/c the outbreak is bad for CCP's "Mianzi". Saving people's live is just a byproduct (not that it's a bad byproduct...).

Oh, and of course Trump based that comment of his conversation with his "friend" Xinnie the Pooh. Is that even a question? :banghead:
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:24 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
art wrote:
The official figures from China above look strange to me. If the number of people having had close contact with infected patients is rising, how is it that the number of reported new infections is decreasing?


They are not strange, Lightsaber earlier explained that their testing capacity is about 4200 tests per day currently, so they are limited in the number of cases that they can confirm...

If we believe earlier projections from when testing capacity was not a limiting factor, we should have had at least 37.000-50.000 cases.
Again, these are the most conservative projections, in reality we should be well into the 6 digits and could be hitting 7 digits (ie millions of cases) of cases this weekend.
As for the deaths, only confirmed cases who died are counted, no time nor resources to check dead people.

The limited testing needs to be emphasized.

My prior links show it started at 200 tests per day.
Recently (this week) to 4,400 (4,000 in new lab + others)
Wuhan is bringing up a new lab to test 10,000/day

Not all tests will be positive. Some people will just be miserable from the flu, another virus, bacterial infection, good poisoning, or something else. The less surplus testing capacity or hospital beds, the more likely the doctors only test cases for admittance or discharge from the hospital.

Anecdotal evidence presented prior in this thread is that the crematoriums in Wuhan are far busier than expected.

It also seems as if this virus takes many weeks to kill. So I do not take the few deaths outside of Hubei as a sign the quarantine worked, I take it as a sign this illness takes weeks before people want to go to the hospital and weeks in the hospital before death (typically).

But then the cases double every 4 days. Prepping is not panicking. Although I might be having soup for lunch for the next year...


Lightsaber
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 9:40 pm

More thoughts on testing:
Wuhan doesn't have enough testing capacity.

In my prior link, the CDC sent out kits to test 140,000 to 160,000 samples.

USA, ready to test, only 5% positive:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/time.com%2f5 ... amp%3dtrue

From what I know of China's testing capability, a majority of tested individuals are coming out positive (consider this my opinion). Note I didn't say vast majority (near 100%) or heavy majority (near 75%), but majority (over 50%, but assumed not much over 50%).

I like low numbers with this virus.

I really feel for those confined to the arenas. No wonder twitter #coronavirus is full of videos with people fighting to stay in their apartment.

A scary, almost conspiracy theory level twitter post:

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyleDennison ... 57/photo/1

If it is true that Wuhan has resorted to burning bodies in fields, don't worry, this is just a flu.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 4687
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:08 pm

I have just come across some information that are quite disturbing:
http://www.caixin.com/2020-02-07/101512517.html
China claim that the current test kit they use can only give out positive test result for 30-50% patients. That mean at least half, or up to 70% patients will be shown as "negative" after being tested. Which mean many patients infected by the nCoV will not be able to be contained if they're solely relying on the test result to identify patient, which is the situation of every countries around the world now.
http://www.bjnews.com.cn/news/2020/02/05/684805.html
Another Chinese news mentioned that China have published a new guideline on 2019nCoV, in which it specifically mentioned, "Possibility of transmission via aerosol and digestive system are still to be investigated". For digestive system, that's probably referring to the virus genes they found in patients feces, which have a chance to spread through it, but then for aerosol, if that turns out to be an actual transmission path then that would facilitate airborne transmission (not droplets), which is transmission path for diseases like influenza, smallpox, measles, tuberculosis, and such, it might mean this nCoV might be as difficult to contain as those named diseases...
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StuckinCMHland
Posts: 232
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 10:59 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 12:14 am

United787 wrote:
Today, Trump was asked
“Are you concerned that China is covering up the full extent of the coronavirus?”

His response:
"No, China’s working very hard. Late last night I had a very good talk with President Xi and mostly we talked about the coronavirus. They’re working really hard and I think they’re doing a very professional job. They’re in touch with … (the World Health Organization), CDC also."

Does anyone on this earth, besides 40% of the US (his base), believe that Trump's response is an informed one based on information provided to him by the CIA, CDC, State Dept. etc? Or, is it just his gut from his conversation with Xi. I will take the later.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coro ... 879b8447f6


With all due respect, what is it you want Trump to say under the circumstances? Especially under the circumstances of his recent impeachment trial he is obviously not going to say anything that can be twisted into something that could cause a panic in the US, or cause trouble with WHO or the Chinese government. I would greatly enjoy reading what you would say if you were in his place.

It's is obvious the CCP and Xi are lying through their teeth. They screwed this up from the beginning, and since the maintenance of power is all that matters to XI and his friends, millions of dead Chinese will not matter to him. He is the one you need to direct your anger to, not the president of the US who is being cautious with his words.

Your bigotry is showing here with your language, and what exactly do you know about the information he's been given? I am so tired of hearing from people who dislike Trump or the US constantly bashing him, the people who voted for him in 2016 or the country. You don't like the guy, or his policies as president, that's fine, no big deal. Your pejorative language is offensive.
 
art
Posts: 3597
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:09 am

Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 4 3,235
Feb 5 3,887
Feb 6 3,694
Feb 7 3,143
Feb 8 3,399

Change in last 2 days +8%

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 4 221,015
Feb 5 252,154
Feb 6 282,813
Feb 6 314,028
Feb 8 345,498

Change in last 2 days +11%

Source: http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/08/c_76358.htm
 
Bluestarmech
Posts: 1
Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2019 3:24 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:43 am

Didn't see this posted, a youtube video from a epidemiological group at Imperial College London discussing true infection estimates vs. the official numbers coming out of china. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALQTdCYGISw

Also, if it hasn't been posted, john hopkins has a nice map and has some nice time series estimates here: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 
maint123
Posts: 396
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:18 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:44 am

As per global times, the Chinese government newspaper - "86 new deaths, 3,399 new confirmed cases were reported on Feb 7 in the Chinese mainland, said China's National Health Commission. The total infection number soared to 34,546, with 722 deaths as of Feb 7."

Worrying speed of spread as can be seen in the case of the liner docked off Japan shows- infected increase from 10 to 75 .
 
User avatar
PixelPilot
Posts: 592
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:53 am

StuckinCMHland wrote:
United787 wrote:
Today, Trump was asked
“Are you concerned that China is covering up the full extent of the coronavirus?”

His response:
"No, China’s working very hard. Late last night I had a very good talk with President Xi and mostly we talked about the coronavirus. They’re working really hard and I think they’re doing a very professional job. They’re in touch with … (the World Health Organization), CDC also."

Does anyone on this earth, besides 40% of the US (his base), believe that Trump's response is an informed one based on information provided to him by the CIA, CDC, State Dept. etc? Or, is it just his gut from his conversation with Xi. I will take the later.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coro ... 879b8447f6


With all due respect, what is it you want Trump to say under the circumstances? Especially under the circumstances of his recent impeachment trial he is obviously not going to say anything that can be twisted into something that could cause a panic in the US, or cause trouble with WHO or the Chinese government. I would greatly enjoy reading what you would say if you were in his place.

It's is obvious the CCP and Xi are lying through their teeth. They screwed this up from the beginning, and since the maintenance of power is all that matters to XI and his friends, millions of dead Chinese will not matter to him. He is the one you need to direct your anger to, not the president of the US who is being cautious with his words.

Your bigotry is showing here with your language, and what exactly do you know about the information he's been given? I am so tired of hearing from people who dislike Trump or the US constantly bashing him, the people who voted for him in 2016 or the country. You don't like the guy, or his policies as president, that's fine, no big deal. Your pejorative language is offensive.


No kidding. I'm not even a US voter and it's annoying as hell listening to this same whine over and over again.
Like what would the guy do in place of Trump rofl
On the other hand it's pretty much given that China is lying but I just wonder how much.
If some of the stuff people post is true then we have a extremely serious storm to deal with.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1363
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 4:29 am

PixelPilot wrote:
StuckinCMHland wrote:
United787 wrote:
Today, Trump was asked
“Are you concerned that China is covering up the full extent of the coronavirus?”

His response:
"No, China’s working very hard. Late last night I had a very good talk with President Xi and mostly we talked about the coronavirus. They’re working really hard and I think they’re doing a very professional job. They’re in touch with … (the World Health Organization), CDC also."

Does anyone on this earth, besides 40% of the US (his base), believe that Trump's response is an informed one based on information provided to him by the CIA, CDC, State Dept. etc? Or, is it just his gut from his conversation with Xi. I will take the later.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coro ... 879b8447f6


With all due respect, what is it you want Trump to say under the circumstances? Especially under the circumstances of his recent impeachment trial he is obviously not going to say anything that can be twisted into something that could cause a panic in the US, or cause trouble with WHO or the Chinese government. I would greatly enjoy reading what you would say if you were in his place.

It's is obvious the CCP and Xi are lying through their teeth. They screwed this up from the beginning, and since the maintenance of power is all that matters to XI and his friends, millions of dead Chinese will not matter to him. He is the one you need to direct your anger to, not the president of the US who is being cautious with his words.

Your bigotry is showing here with your language, and what exactly do you know about the information he's been given? I am so tired of hearing from people who dislike Trump or the US constantly bashing him, the people who voted for him in 2016 or the country. You don't like the guy, or his policies as president, that's fine, no big deal. Your pejorative language is offensive.


No kidding. I'm not even a US voter and it's annoying as hell listening to this same whine over and over again.
Like what would the guy do in place of Trump rofl
On the other hand it's pretty much given that China is lying but I just wonder how much.
If some of the stuff people post is true then we have a extremely serious storm to deal with.


Trump is moving, closing borders, CDC is on high alert sending out test kits, the US is sending supplies to China. He is showing his calm and confidence, and doing his job in the background, as a true leader.
He is on this, taking measures as the situation is unfolding.

I'm wondering what the %[email protected]* is the freaking EU doing keeping borders wide open, doing nothing to prepare, doing nothing to help China. The Belgium health minister weighing 400 pounds was seen laughing hysterically during a press conference announcing the first case.
Only Italy is taking this seriously, they now started to scan each and every passenger including domestic and EU using thermal imaging, but also at other public places.
The Czechs and Greeks have also taken measures but all the rest seems more worried about keeping people calm than taking precautionary measures.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2299
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:56 am

China, in its typical fashion tried to suppress the Coronavirus outbreak. I worry that all the horses have gotten out of the barn - the gate doesn't really matter anymore. My ex-girlfriend is from Chongqing, she went back home to visit Jan 20th, haven't heard from her over there - I'm worried she is trapped, email to/from there can be spotty but I suspect she is staying in the apartment caring for her parents. It's a nice place, her mom was a physician, her dad a judge with both now in their 80's.
---
Between temperatures, high humidity, lots more raw vs processed food, traditional markets, varying sanitation in restaurant food prep, eating lots to things that make me squirm all increases the presence and prevalence of bacteria, fungus, virus, and other things. A bit scary on how to control it
---
She did government work first out of school, later moved to Guam where I met her. Due to her government work she has full health care coverage, same with her parents and brothers also have coverage, but her cousin didn't have the government health coverage, her cousin stayed in the US because she had good coverage there, but in China she was out of luck. My GF would go back to China for health care if she had something serious. This government coverage seems on a par with the best in any country - this health care quality will have a big effect on this outbreak.
---
With respect to the government being honest to its people and to the world, I don't trust them. Attached is a link showing a source from inside China that seems to have two sets of 'books'. This data is from 2/1 and 2/2 where the official death toll was 304 vs 24,589 in the 'secret' data. I don't really believe either here but ask yourself - would your government be blocking highways, closing roads, factories, etc for 304 deaths. Note: the CDC estimates that 12K to 60K annual deaths from flu happen in the US, so putting a city under siege indicates it could be big. [zerohedge can be spot on but at times has a crackpot feel to it. ] https://www.zerohedge.com/health/did-ch ... statistics

---
Quarantines are know to be effective, but quite disruptive. Like many things, having professionals make the best decisions based on true science should be the way we roll. Denying freedom is a very big deal. China should have gotten these rolling a month earlier, now it is draconic and is affecting 100's of millions.
--
I've seen some news items today that the CV can live up to 9 days on surfaces, that makes a Cruise Ship a lousy place to be quarantined. Is there any great disinfectant for CV outside of lots of bleach. HEPA filtered air is a great idea, outside air verses recirculated much better. Having cots spread across a gym to me is just asking for transmission.
---

Thanks to everyone that is keeping this thread on subject and avoiding most of the bashing.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2299
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:02 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
StuckinCMHland wrote:

With all due respect, what is it you want Trump to say under the circumstances? Especially under the circumstances of his recent impeachment trial he is obviously not going to say anything that can be twisted into something that could cause a panic in the US, or cause trouble with WHO or the Chinese government. I would greatly enjoy reading what you would say if you were in his place.

It's is obvious the CCP and Xi are lying through their teeth. They screwed this up from the beginning, and since the maintenance of power is all that matters to XI and his friends, millions of dead Chinese will not matter to him. He is the one you need to direct your anger to, not the president of the US who is being cautious with his words.

Your bigotry is showing here with your language, and what exactly do you know about the information he's been given? I am so tired of hearing from people who dislike Trump or the US constantly bashing him, the people who voted for him in 2016 or the country. You don't like the guy, or his policies as president, that's fine, no big deal. Your pejorative language is offensive.


No kidding. I'm not even a US voter and it's annoying as hell listening to this same whine over and over again.
Like what would the guy do in place of Trump rofl
On the other hand it's pretty much given that China is lying but I just wonder how much.
If some of the stuff people post is true then we have a extremely serious storm to deal with.


Trump is moving, closing borders, CDC is on high alert sending out test kits, the US is sending supplies to China. He is showing his calm and confidence, and doing his job in the background, as a true leader.
He is on this, taking measures as the situation is unfolding.

I'm wondering what the %[email protected]* is the freaking EU doing keeping borders wide open, doing nothing to prepare, doing nothing to help China. The Belgium health minister weighing 400 pounds was seen laughing hysterically during a press conference announcing the first case.
Only Italy is taking this seriously, they now started to scan each and every passenger including domestic and EU using thermal imaging, but also at other public places.
The Czechs and Greeks have also taken measures but all the rest seems more worried about keeping people calm than taking precautionary measures.


I suspect you are not typically supporting Trump, but are acknowledging that here he is on a prudent course. I concur with your thoughts here on the EU, I am shocked by a similar stance by the WHO. Being strict now with enforcement could make the difference between beating CV or the world facing its revenges.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3568
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:17 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
China, in its typical fashion tried to suppress the Coronavirus outbreak. I worry that all the horses have gotten out of the barn - the gate doesn't really matter anymore. My ex-girlfriend is from Chongqing, she went back home to visit Jan 20th, haven't heard from her over there - I'm worried she is trapped, email to/from there can be spotty but I suspect she is staying in the apartment caring for her parents. It's a nice place, her mom was a physician, her dad a judge with both now in their 80's.
---
Between temperatures, high humidity, lots more raw vs processed food, traditional markets, varying sanitation in restaurant food prep, eating lots to things that make me squirm all increases the presence and prevalence of bacteria, fungus, virus, and other things. A bit scary on how to control it
---
She did government work first out of school, later moved to Guam where I met her. Due to her government work she has full health care coverage, same with her parents and brothers also have coverage, but her cousin didn't have the government health coverage, her cousin stayed in the US because she had good coverage there, but in China she was out of luck. My GF would go back to China for health care if she had something serious. This government coverage seems on a par with the best in any country - this health care quality will have a big effect on this outbreak.
---
With respect to the government being honest to its people and to the world, I don't trust them. Attached is a link showing a source from inside China that seems to have two sets of 'books'. This data is from 2/1 and 2/2 where the official death toll was 304 vs 24,589 in the 'secret' data. I don't really believe either here but ask yourself - would your government be blocking highways, closing roads, factories, etc for 304 deaths. Note: the CDC estimates that 12K to 60K annual deaths from flu happen in the US, so putting a city under siege indicates it could be big. [zerohedge can be spot on but at times has a crackpot feel to it. ] https://www.zerohedge.com/health/did-ch ... statistics

---
Quarantines are know to be effective, but quite disruptive. Like many things, having professionals make the best decisions based on true science should be the way we roll. Denying freedom is a very big deal. China should have gotten these rolling a month earlier, now it is draconic and is affecting 100's of millions.
--
I've seen some news items today that the CV can live up to 9 days on surfaces, that makes a Cruise Ship a lousy place to be quarantined. Is there any great disinfectant for CV outside of lots of bleach. HEPA filtered air is a great idea, outside air verses recirculated much better. Having cots spread across a gym to me is just asking for transmission.
---

Thanks to everyone that is keeping this thread on subject and avoiding most of the bashing.


For the Zerohedge post - it is the same screenshot, over and over again, that they are posting anyway. While I can understand people NOT trusting Chinese govt, that "inflated" number is 99% glitch and nothing else.

As for Chinese health care - the healthcare itself is fine especially if you have at least some money, but hospitals are literally overloaded not just in Wuhan, but in other places like Tianjin (where I believe there was a hospital where ~100 medical professionals had to be quarantine). That is the problem that China is facing now.

JayinKitsap wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

No kidding. I'm not even a US voter and it's annoying as hell listening to this same whine over and over again.
Like what would the guy do in place of Trump rofl
On the other hand it's pretty much given that China is lying but I just wonder how much.
If some of the stuff people post is true then we have a extremely serious storm to deal with.


Trump is moving, closing borders, CDC is on high alert sending out test kits, the US is sending supplies to China. He is showing his calm and confidence, and doing his job in the background, as a true leader.
He is on this, taking measures as the situation is unfolding.

I'm wondering what the %[email protected]* is the freaking EU doing keeping borders wide open, doing nothing to prepare, doing nothing to help China. The Belgium health minister weighing 400 pounds was seen laughing hysterically during a press conference announcing the first case.
Only Italy is taking this seriously, they now started to scan each and every passenger including domestic and EU using thermal imaging, but also at other public places.
The Czechs and Greeks have also taken measures but all the rest seems more worried about keeping people calm than taking precautionary measures.


I suspect you are not typically supporting Trump, but are acknowledging that here he is on a prudent course. I concur with your thoughts here on the EU, I am shocked by a similar stance by the WHO. Being strict now with enforcement could make the difference between beating CV or the world facing its revenges.


For WHO - all I will say is that the current head tries way too hard to please China instead of putting global health in first place.

It is also ironic, though, that China is imposing all sort of draconian measures to their own people, greatly restricting what can open, where people can or cannot go, which car can come into the city, etc. Yet when a country decide to imposed a temporary travel ban on Chinese nationals, Chinese govt keep complaining about it (alongside WHO, of course).

For EU - bc they are a bunch of bureaucrats that have no plans and just dodge every single time they have to solve a crisis?
 
DLFREEBIRD
Posts: 1545
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:07 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:48 am

I am confused about why Dr. Li Wenliang died. I thought it was said that older people with other health issues were the ones dying, now this Dr. died who was very young, I absolutely hate to see his photo because he looks very frightened. Like he knew he wouldn't make it. Also today a US citizen died as well as a Japanize citizen,

it seems, like posters in the know have abandoned this thread as well. What's up with that. or, at this point. is there so much confusion, that they don't know what's happening either?
 
DLFREEBIRD
Posts: 1545
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:07 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:22 am

PixelPilot wrote:
StuckinCMHland wrote:
United787 wrote:
Today, Trump was asked
“Are you concerned that China is covering up the full extent of the coronavirus?”

His response:
"No, China’s working very hard. Late last night I had a very good talk with President Xi and mostly we talked about the coronavirus. They’re working really hard and I think they’re doing a very professional job. They’re in touch with … (the World Health Organization), CDC also."

Does anyone on this earth, besides 40% of the US (his base), believe that Trump's response is an informed one based on information provided to him by the CIA, CDC, State Dept. etc? Or, is it just his gut from his conversation with Xi. I will take the later.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coro ... 879b8447f6


With all due respect, what is it you want Trump to say under the circumstances? Especially under the circumstances of his recent impeachment trial he is obviously not going to say anything that can be twisted into something that could cause a panic in the US, or cause trouble with WHO or the Chinese government. I would greatly enjoy reading what you would say if you were in his place.

It's is obvious the CCP and Xi are lying through their teeth. They screwed this up from the beginning, and since the maintenance of power is all that matters to XI and his friends, millions of dead Chinese will not matter to him. He is the one you need to direct your anger to, not the president of the US who is being cautious with his words.

Your bigotry is showing here with your language, and what exactly do you know about the information he's been given? I am so tired of hearing from people who dislike Trump or the US constantly bashing him, the people who voted for him in 2016 or the country. You don't like the guy, or his policies as president, that's fine, no big deal. Your pejorative language is offensive.


No kidding. I'm not even a US voter and it's annoying as hell listening to this same whine over and over again.
Like what would the guy do in place of Trump rofl
On the other hand it's pretty much given that China is lying but I just wonder how much.
If some of the stuff people post is true then we have a extremely serious storm to deal with.


people are irritated at Trump because, In 2018, Trump decided to undo everything Obama did. He fired the government’s entire pandemic response chain of command, including the White House management infrastructure. Building on the Ebola experience in 2014, the Obama administration set up a permanent epidemic monitoring and command group inside the White House National Security Council (NSC) and another in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)—both of which followed the scientific and public health leads of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the diplomatic advice of the State Department. That's all gone. His administrations won't say if they have a plan, they say not to worry. Meanwhile, healthy, young adults, have died which should dispel the notion that only older people contract the illness with underlying health issues. In other words.

“It can take a young, healthy person and make them sick,” Dr. Schaffner said. “That’s clear from the health care workers and the young people who have died.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... erm=020720
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 4687
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:54 pm

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
I am confused about why Dr. Li Wenliang died. I thought it was said that older people with other health issues were the ones dying, now this Dr. died who was very young, I absolutely hate to see his photo because he looks very frightened. Like he knew he wouldn't make it. Also today a US citizen died as well as a Japanize citizen,

it seems, like posters in the know have abandoned this thread as well. What's up with that. or, at this point. is there so much confusion, that they don't know what's happening either?

Elderly and those have other conditions are more likely to die, doesn't mean young healthy person won't die.
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate. 求同存異. よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
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User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20613
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:22 pm

Folks, this is a Coronavirus thread. If you discuss a politician, only discuss impact on Coronavirus.

This is your warning.
Winter is coming.
 
User avatar
lugie
Posts: 904
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 3:43 pm

c933103 wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
I am confused about why Dr. Li Wenliang died. I thought it was said that older people with other health issues were the ones dying, now this Dr. died who was very young, I absolutely hate to see his photo because he looks very frightened. Like he knew he wouldn't make it. Also today a US citizen died as well as a Japanize citizen,

it seems, like posters in the know have abandoned this thread as well. What's up with that. or, at this point. is there so much confusion, that they don't know what's happening either?

Elderly and those have other conditions are more likely to die, doesn't mean young healthy person won't die.


Moreover, Dr. Li was probably more exposed to the virus than literally any other person in China (and thus, the world).
At some point, even a young, healthy immune system will give in.
Q400 E175 E190 CRJ7 CRJ9 CRJX MD88 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A359 B733 B73G B738 B739 B748 B764 B772 B77W B788 B789
FRA STR HAM TXL MUC ZRH ACE BRU BLL DUB MAN ARN MAD OPO LIS FNC AMS PHL RDU LGA CLT EWR ORD ATL SFO MDW IAD YYZ SJO PTY
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 4687
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 4:17 pm

lugie wrote:
c933103 wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
I am confused about why Dr. Li Wenliang died. I thought it was said that older people with other health issues were the ones dying, now this Dr. died who was very young, I absolutely hate to see his photo because he looks very frightened. Like he knew he wouldn't make it. Also today a US citizen died as well as a Japanize citizen,

it seems, like posters in the know have abandoned this thread as well. What's up with that. or, at this point. is there so much confusion, that they don't know what's happening either?

Elderly and those have other conditions are more likely to die, doesn't mean young healthy person won't die.


Moreover, Dr. Li was probably more exposed to the virus than literally any other person in China (and thus, the world).
At some point, even a young, healthy immune system will give in.

Nah, he was not a doctor responsible for treating the virus, he's just an ophthalmic doctor who happened to know about the event and happened to be infected when treating his patients, who probably didn't even know they have the virus at the time
It's pointless to attempt winning internet debate. 求同存異. よく見て・よく聞いて・よく考える
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frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4429
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 4:41 pm

A particular person, be they young, old, infirm, handicapped, pregnant, will all experience a new viral disease somewhat differently. Genetics, current health, previous viral history all weigh in.

Cases in China, from available data, seem to be showing it leveling off at about 3500 new cases a day - no exponential increase. As for the rest of the world, the data displays as close to zero new cases as possible in a chart showing from zero to five thousand. People from Wuhan have been flooding the world all of December and most of January. Except for the cruise ship there are no outbreak centers thus far.

Res the cruise ship, they all practice heavy and effective viral control to prevent norovirus. Yet those procedures and protocols were ineffective at preventing this corona-virus. I am sure there are people researching this already.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3568
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 5:58 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Cases in China, from available data, seem to be showing it leveling off at about 3500 new cases a day - no exponential increase. As for the rest of the world, the data displays as close to zero new cases as possible in a chart showing from zero to five thousand. People from Wuhan have been flooding the world all of December and most of January. Except for the cruise ship there are no outbreak centers thus far.


From posts by lightsaber, though, aren't they still testing only ~4400 samples a day in Wuhan? That would limit the number of new cases per day.

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Res the cruise ship, they all practice heavy and effective viral control to prevent norovirus. Yet those procedures and protocols were ineffective at preventing this corona-virus. I am sure there are people researching this already.


Normal sanitation practice would not do much with the virus being spread by close contact. Out of a ships of 4700 pax, having 65 people that came close to the 80 year old man is nothing that out of ordinary.

The number is actually lower than an average norovirus outbreak on a cruise ship - ~100 out of ~3000.
 
art
Posts: 3597
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 5:59 pm

I see the official figures for China emerging each day but I do not think it is possible that these figures reflect the real position because

(a) provincial government appears to supplly central government with the data used to compile statistics and in a totalitarian state there is a strong disincentive for provincial government to appear in a bad light through finding and recording (or passing on) full infection numbers
(b) the resources to test all possible cases are absent
(c) if you are infected you may only suffer slight symptoms and may never cecome a known carrier (but still infect others)

Having given this new virus the chance to spread by suppressing the revelations of Dr Li and probably others, the Chinese government squandered China's chance of taking swift action to stop this becoming a serious epidemic. I now foresee millions or tens of millions of people (possibly hundreds of millions of people) in China being infected by the virus, many thanks to China's system of totalitarian government. The question now to me is whether pockets of infection in other countries can be managed successfully to prevent epidemics developing elsewhere in the world.

The only good thing I have heard recently is that the time to develop a vaccine may be reduced through the similarity of the virus to the virus which caused SARS.
 
yonahleung
Posts: 75
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:38 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
A particular person, be they young, old, infirm, handicapped, pregnant, will all experience a new viral disease somewhat differently. Genetics, current health, previous viral history all weigh in.

Cases in China, from available data, seem to be showing it leveling off at about 3500 new cases a day - no exponential increase. As for the rest of the world, the data displays as close to zero new cases as possible in a chart showing from zero to five thousand. People from Wuhan have been flooding the world all of December and most of January. Except for the cruise ship there are no outbreak centers thus far.

Res the cruise ship, they all practice heavy and effective viral control to prevent norovirus. Yet those procedures and protocols were ineffective at preventing this corona-virus. I am sure there are people researching this already.

Right, it is just a very minor disease and there is nothing to worry about.
Meanwhile we are seeing 7 new cases in Singapore and none of them have been to China. Note that Singapore is now more than 30 degrees celsius (while the SARS virus could not withstand high temperatures).

Still, nothing to worry about, it is just like a bad flu. Maybe Spanish Flu, but not much worse.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:47 pm

I did not say it was a minor disease, and I did not say it was nothing to worry about. It remains true, and disputes your sarcasm that the US has been exposed for all of December and most of January to a lot of people from Wuhan and there have been no outbreaks. Get real. Early detection, fast laboratory tests, appropriate public health steps including self-isolation and quarantine as necessary may (note I said may) be what is necessary to protect us. China failed miserably, and it needs being noted that the death toll is 25 times higher in Wuhan than the rest of China. The sky may not be falling. It is a tragedy of the first order what has happened in Wuhan, you obviously did not read my earlier posts.
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:04 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Cases in China, from available data, seem to be showing it leveling off at about 3500 new cases a day - no exponential increase. As for the rest of the world, the data displays as close to zero new cases as possible in a chart showing from zero to five thousand. People from Wuhan have been flooding the world all of December and most of January. Except for the cruise ship there are no outbreak centers thus far.


From posts by lightsaber, though, aren't they still testing only ~4400 samples a day in Wuhan? That would limit the number of new cases per day.

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Res the cruise ship, they all practice heavy and effective viral control to prevent norovirus. Yet those procedures and protocols were ineffective at preventing this corona-virus. I am sure there are people researching this already.


Normal sanitation practice would not do much with the virus being spread by close contact. Out of a ships of 4700 pax, having 65 people that came close to the 80 year old man is nothing that out of ordinary.

The number is actually lower than an average norovirus outbreak on a cruise ship - ~100 out of ~3000.

Until testing capacity increase, the most new cases Wuhan can have is ~4400 per day as cases only happen if verified. Thankfully, about 700 per day are negative. Now, I personally wish for more negative.

It scares me to have about an 84% positive rate. That means only people who are intuitively obviously infected are tested. Recall the flu going around has similar symptoms, so that high a positive rate is scary.

I previously posted a link upthread on how a new 10,000 test per day lab was built (the building), but I do not know when it goes online. (I will not sample 10,000 on day 1 until all the equipment is installed and the lab is staffed up and staff learn how to work quickly.

Did they expand the testing on the cruise ship past the initial 273? I concur in testing the most likely first, but there is a high chance of secondary infections by now. A large number of asymptomatic spreaders wouldn't have been tested theoretically....

The CDC nailed it by sending kits to 100 labs. I estimate each new lab could test 400 samples per day. I suspect the CDC will have more kits available before the 140,000 or so samples happen.

Not testing is not knowing. More people must be tested on the Diamond princess.

Lightsaber

Late edit, it seems 115 US labs are approved to test for Coronavirus.

Wow, that is a population distorted fraction of the global total. There are 191 in other countries. Or 37% of the labs are in the USA... I really am looking for information to scare me less, instead finding the opposite.

https://www.slashgear.com/coronavirus-t ... 09087/amp/
Winter is coming.
 
golfradio
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:06 pm

What do we know about the transmission of the virus during the asymptomatic phase of the infection?

I just read about 5 Britons (including a 9 yr old child) in a French ski resort, confirmed positive. Apparently their only contact was with another Briton who had returned from a 3 day business trip to Singapore.
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lugie
Posts: 904
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:10 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
I did not say it was a minor disease, and I did not say it was nothing to worry about. It remains true, and disputes your sarcasm that the US has been exposed for all of December and most of January to a lot of people from Wuhan and there have been no outbreaks. Get real. Early detection, fast laboratory tests, appropriate public health steps including self-isolation and quarantine as necessary may (note I said may) be what is necessary to protect us. China failed miserably, and it needs being noted that the death toll is 25 times higher in Wuhan than the rest of China. The sky may not be falling. It is a tragedy of the first order what has happened in Wuhan, you obviously did not read my earlier posts.



Thank you. I do think that it's a dangerous virus and especially in Wuhan the situation appears to be spiraling out of control but I agree that (at least currently) its international impact seems veeeeerrry minor.

Take Germany as an example: Yes, there are 14 cases (which makes us the European country with the most cases, by quite a margin, I believe), but 2 of those got infected in Wuhan and were evacuated here, the others are all part of one single correlated cluster and have been quarantined. In fact, the single case of Coronavirus in Spain is also part of this cluster from Bavaria (German who got infected before flying to the Canaries for vacation). All 14 (15) exhibit mild to no symptoms.

Moreover, it has been 10 full days (almost one full incubation cycle, using the upper end estimate for incubation periods) since LH cut all flights to China, thus dramatically reducing the traffic between here and affected areas.

In this entire time, no cases outside of the Bavarian cluster and the evacuees have popped up and as this cycle reaches its end (in the meantime, more drastic isolation and containment measures have been taken in China), the likelihood of a major outbreak popping up continues to shrink.

Health officials should be very vigilant, personal hygiene should be paid more attention to than ever, and I personally would be in favor of banning any and all flights from China (not just LH) and maybe even HK for another month, but right now it seems as though European countries have been rather successful at containing the few cases that have occurred here.
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1989worstyear
Posts: 887
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:28 pm

golfradio wrote:
What do we know about the transmission of the virus during the asymptomatic phase of the infection?

I just read about 5 Britons (including a 9 yr old child) in a French ski resort, confirmed positive. Apparently their only contact was with another Briton who had returned from a 3 day business trip to Singapore.


Here's an article. Looks like UA needs to put the brakes on the 763 refresh ASAP.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -nationals

:scared:
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golfradio
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Joined: Mon Jun 15, 2009 5:35 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:18 pm

lugie wrote:
I personally would be in favor of banning any and all flights from China (not just LH) and maybe even HK for another month, but right now it seems as though European countries have been rather successful at containing the few cases that have occurred here.


I am not so sure. What is worrisome to me is the possible human to human transmission during the asymptomatic phase. Even if we assume the Briton in Singapore met with someone from Wuhan, they had to be asymptomatic at the time of contact. This is now beyond China.
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