Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
Scotron12
Posts: 496
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:55 pm

casinterest wrote:
Someone is keeping a good chart of this .

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The interesting thing is that on the logarithmic scale, the disease is not currently rapidly expanding. It is being contained.
Time will tell going forward whether the estimates are off , or if the disease is being held in check.


Define "not rapidly"? We are only getting what the Chinese are reporting. Nothing else...nothing more.

And why are Governments taking extreme measures against the WHO's advice? To me it doesn't add up.

Rgds
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20563
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 4:22 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871783

I cannot say if the veracity of these reports are true or not. But I certainly do not believe the numbers stated by the Chinese or WHO.

Striking to me is the official advice of WHO, which ALL governments choose to ignore.

I guess will take a while to find the truth...if ever!

Why are we worried? 3 public arenas converted to dormatories, 10 more to come. See it is just the flu..

https://mobile.twitter.com/XuZeyu_Phili ... 2504248322

/sarcasm

China has shut down their economy, appears to be forcing people into quarantine, forgoing weeks of Macau tax revenue, extended the Chinese new year.

There are reasons already posted. For example, cases must test positive to be infected or a death, but
I've already posted links there isn't enough test capacity.

Lightsaber

Ps, the welding of people into buildings disturbs me:

https://mobile.twitter.com/anis_farooqu ... 6838602753
Winter is coming.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 4:41 pm

casinterest wrote:
Someone is keeping a good chart of this .

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The interesting thing is that on the logarithmic scale, the disease is not currently rapidly expanding. It is being contained.
Time will tell going forward whether the estimates are off , or if the disease is being held in check.


I suspect they're using an increasing proportion of test kits on the "recovered" to open beds. It seems like they aren't testing more than they can take in tbh. "Suspected" cases are still too high for them to be testing everyone who needs a test.
情報
 
Scotron12
Posts: 496
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:03 pm

Reminds me of the old USSR...they purported to have all these sophisticated missles which, upon inspection, turned out to be rusting hulks!
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3568
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:05 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Ps, the welding of people into buildings disturbs me:

https://mobile.twitter.com/anis_farooqu ... 6838602753


I've also read people getting locked into their own home, literally, to quarantine them.

It's extremely draconian measures that China is taking, period.

Jouhou wrote:
Oh, I understand employers not caring, I'd just expect the government to step in and A.) Require masks be delivery only so the crowds are online, not in person and B.) Have a plan to shut down non-essential workplaces if the infections continue to spread in HK and employers can't provide adequate protection to employees.

Hong Kong is very densely populated. Draconian measures seen in Hubei might be necessary for the sake of not causing the healthcare system to collapse and mass casualties to ensue.

As for the U.S. response- we really don't have a good plan if it spreads here. Trust me. Stopping spread at our borders and holding it off until a vaccine is developed is our only hope.


Meanwhile in Hong Kong
1. Mask shortages is still happening. Some of it has to do with people "hoarding" them (Many already have 2-3 weeks supplies but still wait in line as they don't want to eventually run out), but it also has to do with govt insistence on "free economy", meaning some shops can just sell masks for 10x the normal price. Oh, and that govt procurement of face mask is still going nowhere.
1b. There are reports that some hospitals are running low on N95 face mask also. All b/c of complete incompetence of HK govt.
2. The only draconian measure that HK govt keeps taking is to beat up anyone (literally...) protesting against having a quarantine center close to their home. This just happen today:
https://www.facebook.com/standnewshk/ph ... =3&theater
It was a group of protesters that are NOT violent, NOT blocking roads, yet all you see is a bunch of riot police either arresting everyone or beating up people :banghead: . Oh, and this is NOT the only case.
3. HK still refuse to totally close its border. There's that mandatory quarantine, but its enforcement is literally a joke.
4. A possible superspreader case within an extended family. One of the man in that group went into mainland, came back, and spread the virus to a bunch of his extended family member in a hot pot dinner around Lunar New Year. So far, 2 are hospitalized, 7 are tested positive, and 8 more (IIRC) are waiting for the result.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
To give an example, France and Germany have no plan, no directions for their agencies, not enough test kits, no travel restrictions, nothing.
Only more case every day and it's about to get bad, believe me.


Which is why I actually think Trump did the right thing, being decisive and cut off entries by anyone that had been to mainland China now rather than later.

lightsaber wrote:
China has shut down their economy, appears to be forcing people into quarantine, forgoing weeks of Macau tax revenue, extended the Chinese new year.


Not to mention, all the big cities are literally ghost towns. Many businesses are told to NOT open, and only the necessities (i.e. supermarket) are allow to be open.

They even went into things like confiscating tiles of mahjong just so that people don't gather in their home :white:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... ges-facing
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20563
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:09 pm

Waterbomber2" wrote:

Next week will be crucial, as many businesses in China start operating again, which is the worst thing that can happen.



All the containment ends when:
1. Mass transit (aircraft, trains, busses) fill up.
2. Workers return to packed factories
3. Workers return to sleeping many to a room.

No modern economy functions without large personal interaction. In particular factories.

As already noted, this disease us (mostly) survivable, at a cost of 4 weeks of downtime. Has everyone here read Guns, Germs, and Steel? When a new disease spreads rapidly through a population without resistance, there are no caregivers as too many get sick at once. That dramatically alters the fatality rate for the worse.

That is the scary scenario.
There also needs to be an independent counting as the current numbers are as believable as the SARS numbers (not plausible based on anecdotal evidence).

This is a contagious but extreamely slow disease that has 4 to 15 days symptom free and then a period of mild to moderate symptoms. Death happens to those infected 3 to 6 weeks ago.

So we get to debate a while.

Lightsaber

Late edit, another building welded up:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Lady44Sassy/ ... 8511097856
Winter is coming.
 
intrepidflyer
Posts: 25
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2017 8:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:25 pm

I know this is all a bit tinfoil, but I think I've already had coronavirus and I think it's much more prevalent than anyone realises or is willing to say. I think I picked it up in a Chinese restaurant in London exactly 3 weeks ago.

Obviously when I called the government helpline they didn't really care as I hadn't been to China - so no wonder there are not more positive tests.

I had a 38.7c-39.2c degree fever/temperature for two days on the 14th day after my busy Chinese restaurant meal. Followed by a dry wheezy cough, with no typical cold symptoms.

All I can say is, that if people are finding out now that they were exposed in Singapore mid Jan, it seems to line up timings wise.
 
art
Posts: 3574
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:25 pm

lightsaber wrote:
China has shut down their economy, appears to be forcing people into quarantine, forgoing weeks of Macau tax revenue, extended the Chinese new year.

Lightsaber


Correct me if I am wrong but does not the extended holiday finish soon? I have an idea that (apart from in areas in lockdown) people will go back to work and school will start again. Millions of people, some of whom will be infected, will be mixing at close quarters with millions of other people then going home and mixing with their families.

Will there at least be tests for temperature for all before they get on a bus, a tram, a train to weed out high risk travellers? Something needs to be done to prevent as many tinfected people as possible spreading the virus to others.
 
yonahleung
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:55 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:38 pm

art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
China has shut down their economy, appears to be forcing people into quarantine, forgoing weeks of Macau tax revenue, extended the Chinese new year.

Lightsaber


Correct me if I am wrong but does not the extended holiday finish soon? I have an idea that (apart from in areas in lockdown) people will go back to work and school will start again. Millions of people, some of whom will be infected, will be mixing at close quarters with millions of other people then going home and mixing with their families.

Will there at least be tests for temperature for all before they get on a bus, a tram, a train to weed out high risk travellers? Something needs to be done to prevent as many tinfected people as possible spreading the virus to others.

The thing with this Wuhan Coronavirus is that people can be infectious before they have a fever. While people only became infectious for SARS after having fever.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2932
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:05 pm

intrepidflyer wrote:
I know this is all a bit tinfoil, but I think I've already had coronavirus and I think it's much more prevalent than anyone realises or is willing to say. I think I picked it up in a Chinese restaurant in London exactly 3 weeks ago.

Obviously when I called the government helpline they didn't really care as I hadn't been to China - so no wonder there are not more positive tests.

I had a 38.7c-39.2c degree fever/temperature for two days on the 14th day after my busy Chinese restaurant meal. Followed by a dry wheezy cough, with no typical cold symptoms.

All I can say is, that if people are finding out now that they were exposed in Singapore mid Jan, it seems to line up timings wise.

There are currently 4 other coronaviruses circulating as a part of "common cold" cocktail. Most adults had one of those. One of the possibilities of 2019-nCv future is joining the cocktail as population gains immunity, and virus actually getting relegated to a "bad cold, maybe even flu!" condition.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20563
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:54 pm

The Holland America Line ship Westerdam has been tentatively approved to land at 2 ports, apparently at midnight PST (or in about 13 hours).

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5074/


It is currently off Vietnam per:
https://www.cruisemapper.com/ships/ms-Westerdam-710


art wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
China has shut down their economy, appears to be forcing people into quarantine, forgoing weeks of Macau tax revenue, extended the Chinese new year.

Lightsaber


Correct me if I am wrong but does not the extended holiday finish soon? I have an idea that (apart from in areas in lockdown) people will go back to work and school will start again. Millions of people, some of whom will be infected, will be mixing at close quarters with millions of other people then going home and mixing with their families.

Will there at least be tests for temperature for all before they get on a bus, a tram, a train to weed out high risk travellers? Something needs to be done to prevent as many tinfected people as possible spreading the virus to others.

FoxConn not allowed to open Monday: https://9to5mac.com/2020/02/08/report-c ... -concerns/
There is a million workers, but where are they, are they traveling? Where will they stay?

To be balanced, I've also read some cities will allow production starts. So this is developing.

Last week the rail was basically very light traffic:
https://www.railfreight.com/specials/20 ... rom-china/

From above "We received information from our Chinese head office that some Chinese enterprises and factories have extended the ‘home office’ or ‘stop working’ arrangement until 17 February”, he says on Friday 9 February. "

The next bit is my opinion, let us say my hypothesis on what I think is happening:
I believe there is a 'soft extension' of the holiday to keep it out of most press, isolated to cities with significant cases of Coronavirus. So the lock down will apparently last another week, but perhaps not outside the 250 million effected population (so 80% of China gets back to work? That is my best SWAG).

Hubai (the infection hot zone), has rail shut down until end of February:
https://www.railfreight.com/specials/20 ... -february/

"Rail freight traffic from the Chinese province of Hubei, with its capital Wuhan, has come to a standstill. Trains are not permitted to leave the province until the end of February."

So yes, there will be more mixing starting this weekend (to travel back to work). This will spike the real (vs. reported) infection rate. I very much worry due to the crowding in dormitories and factories.

I will say I am happy with the face masks. They will slow (but not stop) the spread. My concern is everyone getting sick fast (not enough care-givers). I'm not saying this will stop the virus, but spreading it out over a year is much better than over a few months.

One doesn't weld people into buildings for 'just a flu,' so this isn't something I'm willing to write off.
I have rations (in case of say an earthquake), so I can hole up for a bit.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20563
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:07 pm

I'm not sure of the quality of the source, claims first 5 deaths in North Korea:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/north-kor ... razy-scary

A military parade being cancelled is a big deal though.

No one is prepared for this, but North Korea gets a place of honor for lack of preparedness. With case in the city, early, in China bordering North Korea.

Another Source claiming one Woman had Coronavirus:
https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... n-infected

"A North Korean woman living in Pyongyang recently tested positive for coronavirus and those who had contact with her are being quarantined, a South Korean local newspaper reported today, citing a source, The Korea Times said."

The people will suffer and they will deny.

Because of concern over the few cases in South Korea, Hundai even shut their Massive (largest in world?) car factory in Ulsan:
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/e ... -car-plant

I bet many countries have coronavirus that aren't ready to really test for it.


Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
art
Posts: 3574
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:38 pm

yonahleung wrote:
art wrote:
Will there at least be tests for temperature for all before they get on a bus, a tram, a train to weed out high risk travellers? Something needs to be done to prevent as many tinfected people as possible spreading the virus to others.


The thing with this Wuhan Coronavirus is that people can be infectious before they have a fever. While people only became infectious for SARS after having fever.


I am thinking of simple, practical measures to reduce the spread of the virus. If such measures could exclude 50% or 60% or 70% of infected people from mass transit systems (and thus offices and factories), the increase in infections might be slowed a great deal, buying time and reducing pressure on the health system.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:54 pm

intrepidflyer wrote:
I know this is all a bit tinfoil, but I think I've already had coronavirus and I think it's much more prevalent than anyone realises or is willing to say. I think I picked it up in a Chinese restaurant in London exactly 3 weeks ago.

Obviously when I called the government helpline they didn't really care as I hadn't been to China - so no wonder there are not more positive tests.

I had a 38.7c-39.2c degree fever/temperature for two days on the 14th day after my busy Chinese restaurant meal. Followed by a dry wheezy cough, with no typical cold symptoms.

All I can say is, that if people are finding out now that they were exposed in Singapore mid Jan, it seems to line up timings wise.



The normal coronaviruses are circulating too. So are a slew of other viruses plus influenza. I kind of wish they made consumer rapid tests so people could informationally see what virus they are sick with- but that probably wouldn't be practical in terms of what people would be willing to pay for such a thing. I know with coronaviruses they don't tend to have a conserved antigen that is unique to a particular type- but at the same time they do have conserved antigens and you could test broadly for a "coronavirus". That also means if we had scientifically gotten off of our asses years ago we probably could have made a single vaccine that eliminated human coronaviruses altogether.

kalvado wrote:
intrepidflyer wrote:
I know this is all a bit tinfoil, but I think I've already had coronavirus and I think it's much more prevalent than anyone realises or is willing to say. I think I picked it up in a Chinese restaurant in London exactly 3 weeks ago.

Obviously when I called the government helpline they didn't really care as I hadn't been to China - so no wonder there are not more positive tests.

I had a 38.7c-39.2c degree fever/temperature for two days on the 14th day after my busy Chinese restaurant meal. Followed by a dry wheezy cough, with no typical cold symptoms.

All I can say is, that if people are finding out now that they were exposed in Singapore mid Jan, it seems to line up timings wise.

There are currently 4 other coronaviruses circulating as a part of "common cold" cocktail. Most adults had one of those. One of the possibilities of 2019-nCv future is joining the cocktail as population gains immunity, and virus actually getting relegated to a "bad cold, maybe even flu!" condition.


You don't get immunity to those coronaviruses, that's why people get repeatedly reinfected with those 4. They just aren't as damaging. I suspect though they've been completely compromising our immune systems and exposing us to secondary infections this whole time. Science should have paid more attention.
zakuivcustom wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Ps, the welding of people into buildings disturbs me:

https://mobile.twitter.com/anis_farooqu ... 6838602753


I've also read people getting locked into their own home, literally, to quarantine them.

It's extremely draconian measures that China is taking, period.

Jouhou wrote:
Oh, I understand employers not caring, I'd just expect the government to step in and A.) Require masks be delivery only so the crowds are online, not in person and B.) Have a plan to shut down non-essential workplaces if the infections continue to spread in HK and employers can't provide adequate protection to employees.

Hong Kong is very densely populated. Draconian measures seen in Hubei might be necessary for the sake of not causing the healthcare system to collapse and mass casualties to ensue.

As for the U.S. response- we really don't have a good plan if it spreads here. Trust me. Stopping spread at our borders and holding it off until a vaccine is developed is our only hope.


Meanwhile in Hong Kong
1. Mask shortages is still happening. Some of it has to do with people "hoarding" them (Many already have 2-3 weeks supplies but still wait in line as they don't want to eventually run out), but it also has to do with govt insistence on "free economy", meaning some shops can just sell masks for 10x the normal price. Oh, and that govt procurement of face mask is still going nowhere.
1b. There are reports that some hospitals are running low on N95 face mask also. All b/c of complete incompetence of HK govt.
2. The only draconian measure that HK govt keeps taking is to beat up anyone (literally...) protesting against having a quarantine center close to their home. This just happen today:
https://www.facebook.com/standnewshk/ph ... =3&theater
It was a group of protesters that are NOT violent, NOT blocking roads, yet all you see is a bunch of riot police either arresting everyone or beating up people :banghead: . Oh, and this is NOT the only case.
3. HK still refuse to totally close its border. There's that mandatory quarantine, but its enforcement is literally a joke.
4. A possible superspreader case within an extended family. One of the man in that group went into mainland, came back, and spread the virus to a bunch of his extended family member in a hot pot dinner around Lunar New Year. So far, 2 are hospitalized, 7 are tested positive, and 8 more (IIRC) are waiting for the result.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
To give an example, France and Germany have no plan, no directions for their agencies, not enough test kits, no travel restrictions, nothing.
Only more case every day and it's about to get bad, believe me.


Which is why I actually think Trump did the right thing, being decisive and cut off entries by anyone that had been to mainland China now rather than later.

lightsaber wrote:
China has shut down their economy, appears to be forcing people into quarantine, forgoing weeks of Macau tax revenue, extended the Chinese new year.


Not to mention, all the big cities are literally ghost towns. Many businesses are told to NOT open, and only the necessities (i.e. supermarket) are allow to be open.

They even went into things like confiscating tiles of mahjong just so that people don't gather in their home :white:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... ges-facing


I mean, the news that the virus spreads by aerosol now means surgical masks really aren't that effective. The gaps in the seal on your face matters more when it's not just medium-large respiratory droplets that spread it. This is where the guidance that they'd be most helpful when the sick wear them comes into play.
情報
 
intrepidflyer
Posts: 25
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2017 8:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:59 pm

Jouhou wrote:
intrepidflyer wrote:
I know this is all a bit tinfoil, but I think I've already had coronavirus and I think it's much more prevalent than anyone realises or is willing to say. I think I picked it up in a Chinese restaurant in London exactly 3 weeks ago.

Obviously when I called the government helpline they didn't really care as I hadn't been to China - so no wonder there are not more positive tests.

I had a 38.7c-39.2c degree fever/temperature for two days on the 14th day after my busy Chinese restaurant meal. Followed by a dry wheezy cough, with no typical cold symptoms.

All I can say is, that if people are finding out now that they were exposed in Singapore mid Jan, it seems to line up timings wise.



The normal coronaviruses are circulating too. So are a slew of other viruses plus influenza. I kind of wish they made consumer rapid tests so people could informationally see what virus they are sick with- but that probably wouldn't be practical in terms of what people would be willing to pay for such a thing. I know with coronaviruses they don't tend to have a conserved antigen that is unique to a particular type- but at the same time they do have conserved antigens and you could test broadly for a "coronavirus". That also means if we had scientifically gotten off of our asses years ago we probably could have made a single vaccine that eliminated human coronaviruses altogether.

kalvado wrote:
intrepidflyer wrote:
I know this is all a bit tinfoil, but I think I've already had coronavirus and I think it's much more prevalent than anyone realises or is willing to say. I think I picked it up in a Chinese restaurant in London exactly 3 weeks ago.

Obviously when I called the government helpline they didn't really care as I hadn't been to China - so no wonder there are not more positive tests.

I had a 38.7c-39.2c degree fever/temperature for two days on the 14th day after my busy Chinese restaurant meal. Followed by a dry wheezy cough, with no typical cold symptoms.

All I can say is, that if people are finding out now that they were exposed in Singapore mid Jan, it seems to line up timings wise.

There are currently 4 other coronaviruses circulating as a part of "common cold" cocktail. Most adults had one of those. One of the possibilities of 2019-nCv future is joining the cocktail as population gains immunity, and virus actually getting relegated to a "bad cold, maybe even flu!" condition.


You don't get immunity to those coronaviruses, that's why people get repeatedly reinfected with those 4. They just aren't as damaging. I suspect though they've been completely compromising our immune systems and exposing us to secondary infections this whole time. Science should have paid more attention.
zakuivcustom wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Ps, the welding of people into buildings disturbs me:

https://mobile.twitter.com/anis_farooqu ... 6838602753


I've also read people getting locked into their own home, literally, to quarantine them.

It's extremely draconian measures that China is taking, period.

Jouhou wrote:
Oh, I understand employers not caring, I'd just expect the government to step in and A.) Require masks be delivery only so the crowds are online, not in person and B.) Have a plan to shut down non-essential workplaces if the infections continue to spread in HK and employers can't provide adequate protection to employees.

Hong Kong is very densely populated. Draconian measures seen in Hubei might be necessary for the sake of not causing the healthcare system to collapse and mass casualties to ensue.

As for the U.S. response- we really don't have a good plan if it spreads here. Trust me. Stopping spread at our borders and holding it off until a vaccine is developed is our only hope.


Meanwhile in Hong Kong
1. Mask shortages is still happening. Some of it has to do with people "hoarding" them (Many already have 2-3 weeks supplies but still wait in line as they don't want to eventually run out), but it also has to do with govt insistence on "free economy", meaning some shops can just sell masks for 10x the normal price. Oh, and that govt procurement of face mask is still going nowhere.
1b. There are reports that some hospitals are running low on N95 face mask also. All b/c of complete incompetence of HK govt.
2. The only draconian measure that HK govt keeps taking is to beat up anyone (literally...) protesting against having a quarantine center close to their home. This just happen today:
https://www.facebook.com/standnewshk/ph ... =3&theater
It was a group of protesters that are NOT violent, NOT blocking roads, yet all you see is a bunch of riot police either arresting everyone or beating up people :banghead: . Oh, and this is NOT the only case.
3. HK still refuse to totally close its border. There's that mandatory quarantine, but its enforcement is literally a joke.
4. A possible superspreader case within an extended family. One of the man in that group went into mainland, came back, and spread the virus to a bunch of his extended family member in a hot pot dinner around Lunar New Year. So far, 2 are hospitalized, 7 are tested positive, and 8 more (IIRC) are waiting for the result.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
To give an example, France and Germany have no plan, no directions for their agencies, not enough test kits, no travel restrictions, nothing.
Only more case every day and it's about to get bad, believe me.


Which is why I actually think Trump did the right thing, being decisive and cut off entries by anyone that had been to mainland China now rather than later.

lightsaber wrote:
China has shut down their economy, appears to be forcing people into quarantine, forgoing weeks of Macau tax revenue, extended the Chinese new year.


Not to mention, all the big cities are literally ghost towns. Many businesses are told to NOT open, and only the necessities (i.e. supermarket) are allow to be open.

They even went into things like confiscating tiles of mahjong just so that people don't gather in their home :white:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... ges-facing


I mean, the news that the virus spreads by aerosol now means surgical masks really aren't that effective. The gaps in the seal on your face matters more when it's not just medium-large respiratory droplets that spread it. This is where the guidance that they'd be most helpful when the sick wear them comes into play.


Sure Jouhou, as a Londoner I'm used to the relentless circulation of these germs on our public transport and workplaces. However I really felt this was different and I think in a few days we'll know if there's any truth to my theory.
Last edited by intrepidflyer on Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2932
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:59 pm

Jouhou wrote:
]

kalvado wrote:
intrepidflyer wrote:
I know this is all a bit tinfoil, but I think I've already had coronavirus and I think it's much more prevalent than anyone realises or is willing to say. I think I picked it up in a Chinese restaurant in London exactly 3 weeks ago.

Obviously when I called the government helpline they didn't really care as I hadn't been to China - so no wonder there are not more positive tests.

I had a 38.7c-39.2c degree fever/temperature for two days on the 14th day after my busy Chinese restaurant meal. Followed by a dry wheezy cough, with no typical cold symptoms.

All I can say is, that if people are finding out now that they were exposed in Singapore mid Jan, it seems to line up timings wise.

There are currently 4 other coronaviruses circulating as a part of "common cold" cocktail. Most adults had one of those. One of the possibilities of 2019-nCv future is joining the cocktail as population gains immunity, and virus actually getting relegated to a "bad cold, maybe even flu!" condition.


You don't get immunity to those coronaviruses, that's why people get repeatedly reinfected with those 4. They just aren't as damaging. I suspect though they've been completely compromising our immune systems and exposing us to secondary infections this whole time. Science should have paid more attention.

You understand that immune system is the only thing which drives recovery from most virus infections?
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:05 pm

intrepidflyer wrote:

Sure Jouhou, as a Londoner I'm used to the relentless circulation of these germs on our public transport and workplaces. However I really felt this was different and I think in a few days we'll know if there's any truth to my theory.


It's been a weird viral year. We have an influenza B virus dominating in the U.S. (Rare, very rare), massive spikes in RSV that are far worse than most years, accompanied by a global resurgence of measles.

When people get severe pneumonia, they tend to get their chests x-rayed. The kind of damage the virus does to the lungs is unique. They'd notice quickly while treating pneumonia patients even without testing people. That's how the outbreak in China was quickly recognized as a unique pathogen.
情報
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:09 pm

kalvado wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
]

kalvado wrote:
There are currently 4 other coronaviruses circulating as a part of "common cold" cocktail. Most adults had one of those. One of the possibilities of 2019-nCv future is joining the cocktail as population gains immunity, and virus actually getting relegated to a "bad cold, maybe even flu!" condition.


You don't get immunity to those coronaviruses, that's why people get repeatedly reinfected with those 4. They just aren't as damaging. I suspect though they've been completely compromising our immune systems and exposing us to secondary infections this whole time. Science should have paid more attention.

You understand that immune system is the only thing which drives recovery from most virus infections?


Do you understand what I've stated repeatedly is that one of the most common of those 4 coronaviruses was found to destroy specific immune cells so that the immune system will not "remember" the virus 6 months later? And this virus is causing immune failure on a level that indicates its doing something similar to people.
情報
 
art
Posts: 3574
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:29 pm

Jouhou wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
]



You don't get immunity to those coronaviruses, that's why people get repeatedly reinfected with those 4. They just aren't as damaging. I suspect though they've been completely compromising our immune systems and exposing us to secondary infections this whole time. Science should have paid more attention.

You understand that immune system is the only thing which drives recovery from most virus infections?


Do you understand what I've stated repeatedly is that one of the most common of those 4 coronaviruses was found to destroy specific immune cells so that the immune system will not "remember" the virus 6 months later? And this virus is causing immune failure on a level that indicates its doing something similar to people.


Out of curiosity, as a layman (wouldn't recognise a virus if it was staring me in the face)

(a) does this virus damage the immune system so that one is more likely to contract other infections?
(b) does this virus provoke immune system amnesia just for itself or for other viruses as well?
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1352
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:05 am

Latest information that I received is as follows:

-Schools remaining closed across China. (per Japanese media)
-Factories and businesses reopening on Monday but with precautionary measures.

Regarding masks:
I talked to my business partners in China. I offered to send them masks, they asked if I could procure them surgical masks.
Surgical masks are on short supply everywhere, but they are useless as they really are to avoid ingestion of sprays of bodily liquids.
I offered to send them 3M FFP3-type masks and half face masks with particle filters, but they eventually secured surgical masks and that's what they're going to use.

Chinese health workers and government agencies are advising against wearing any type of mask that has a exhaling valve on it, despite that these are the only ones offering real protection. The reason for this is that the masks seem to be used to avoid spread from carriers rather than to help protect healthy people. This suggests that in the Wuhan region, the chances of a person being a carrier are very high.


We need to repeat again, the numbers of new confirmed infections have stalled not because it has become less contagious, but presumably due to reaching the limits for testing.
There is no reason to think that the spread of the infection has slowed down.

With the reopening of businesses in China on Monday, it is inevitable that a lot of healthy people will get infected and that the virus will spread into the rest of China and from there to the rest of the world.

It may be possible that China has given up on testing as the containment strategy has failed and may not be a workable strategy for something that spreads so readily.
If we for instance look at the fact that a single man was able to contaminate at least 70 confirmed people, possibly hundreds aboard a single cruise ship, one could wonder indeed if it is manageable to keep testing, isolating and tracking individuals in a country with thousands of cases in each province.

Japan will reach 100 cases on Monday or Tuesday.
Abe will unveil an emergency response strategy early in the new week.
I expect and hope to see Abe match the U.S. measures of closing borders to anyone who visited China in the past 14 days, possibly extending it to 20 days. In addition, it is possible that they will consider shutting off all flights between Japan and China until the end of March.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2932
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:30 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Chinese health workers and government agencies are advising against wearing any type of mask that has a exhaling valve on it, despite that these are the only ones offering real protection. The reason for this is that the masks seem to be used to avoid spread from carriers rather than to help protect healthy people. This suggests that in the Wuhan region, the chances of a person being a carrier are very high..


One has to decide if exhale protection or inhale protection is the primary goal. It is best to have both, but that is difficult due to the way seals work. Mixing two types is where the problem is.
Non-valved masks are, apparently, the majority, and provide exhale protection mostly and little inhale protection as they don't seal. So it makes sense to enforce exhale protection on everyone, regardless of actual epidemiology situation, if the majority has no choice.
Giving medical personnel inhale protection may be a reasonable idea for their personal health as they have to work in contaminated air; but if a doctor gets sick - they may expose lots of people. Thatis the difficult one, for sure.
 
art
Posts: 3574
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:55 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
.With the reopening of businesses in China on Monday, it is inevitable that a lot of healthy people will get infected and that the virus will spread into the rest of China and from there to the rest of the world.


My guess is that China is condemned to a massive number of cases with many going untreated. My worry is that it will appear in other parts of rhe world with limited health care systems. Providing areas with more developed health systems only have small numbers of infections, I'm optimistic that it can be contained . But I am not optimistic about infection of Africa and South America being contained. Time to arramge international assistance there in my iopinion so that acttion can be taken the moment it appears.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20563
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 2:09 am

Video noting limits on reporting of Coronavirus:
https://twitter.com/WovenuGodwin/status ... 7284585473

No surprises, shortage of test kits, spreading faster than SARS, but less deadly than SARS. Still 2%... One would expect 15 million Americans to become ill, our hospitals are not ready for 300,000+ patients
art wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
.With the reopening of businesses in China on Monday, it is inevitable that a lot of healthy people will get infected and that the virus will spread into the rest of China and from there to the rest of the world.


My guess is that China is condemned to a massive number of cases with many going untreated. My worry is that it will appear in other parts of rhe world with limited health care systems. Providing areas with more developed health systems only have small numbers of infections, I'm optimistic that it can be contained . But I am not optimistic about infection of Africa and South America being contained. Time to arramge international assistance there in my iopinion so that acttion can be taken the moment it appears.

I doubt this can be contained. I care about slowing it down so that the there isn't a shortage of caregivers (people can get ill, recover, and then help others). Less prosperous regions will have it tougher. I worry about the regions you do, plus the SE Asian countries with inadequate health systems.

Lightsaber

Late edit: Local Singapore cases now exceed imported cases:
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... -singapore

I personally find the Singapore cases worrying as this means the end of the cold/dry flu season is not the end of this Virus.
Winter is coming.
 
SFAviationGeek
Posts: 25
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:00 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:09 am

I loathe all these news articles saying "it could be worse than people say it is."

Sure it *could* be. It could also be a lot better than people say it is. People are terrible at assessing scale objectively. 100 people looks like a thousand people to them.

As far as I'm concerned, if things were going to melt down, it would've been when 5 million people left Wuhan several weeks ago. When that happened, it didn't spread across the world and become a pandemic. Its still just concentrated in a couple of cities. All projections that are fearmongering/end of the world are just clickbait. Biggest effect it'll have on the west is a disruption in the supply chain.

And moreover, the video posted just above that indicates a shortage of testing kits is 8 days old.
 
SFAviationGeek
Posts: 25
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:00 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:14 am

Moreover, the high majority of the Japanese cases are from one cruise ship being quarantined and contained. Not from person-to-person transmission within the country.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1352
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:38 am

SFAviationGeek wrote:
Moreover, the high majority of the Japanese cases are from one cruise ship being quarantined and contained. Not from person-to-person transmission within the country.


Yes, and those cases are taking up resources and putting medical and other staff at risk of contagion in Japan, so it doesn't really matter where the infection started.

Most cases of Corona virus are only identified more than 2 weeks after the initial contact.
What you are seeing now is the Corona virus the way it was more than 14 days ago in Japan, not what it is today.

Throw in the flu season and you can really only identify cases where there is a travel history or the pneumonia results in a critical condition.
One of the recent cases in Japan wasn't tested before 10 days after he started showing symptoms.

Japan could have thousands of unknowing carriers walking around and spreading it as we speak.

Things got out of control very fast in Wuhan, if you start seeing a dozen of new cases everyday within any country, it's already too late to stop it.


It doesn't kill to overreact, but it does kill to underreact.
 
DLFREEBIRD
Posts: 1542
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:07 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:53 am

Jouhou wrote:
https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/world-51427216
(In chinese)

https://www.indiatoday.in/science/story ... 2020-02-09
(English, lol. BBC English isn't reporting this yet?)

Apparently it's been confirmed the coronavirus is also transmitted by aerosols. Guess those surgical masks really won't do much good. Also quarantining people on a cruise ship is probably a bad idea if they're all breathing the same air.

Well. I guess that's bad. And now I'm pretty sure the R0 is higher than 2.2.


I was thinking of people on planes breathing the same air. someone sneezing in a theatre or sports event.
 
yonahleung
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:55 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:40 am

Latest news coming out of China is that the incubation period can be up to 24 days for some patients.
https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/cnnews/20200210/bkn-20200210140538648-0210_00952_001.html
 
dampfnudel
Posts: 596
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:42 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:53 am

I read on Twitter that Beijing is now on lockdown.
A313 332 343 B703 712 722 732 73G 738 739 741 742 744 752 762 76E 764 772 AT5 CR9 D10 DHH DHT F27 GRM L10 M83 TU5
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:07 am

art wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
kalvado wrote:
You understand that immune system is the only thing which drives recovery from most virus infections?


Do you understand what I've stated repeatedly is that one of the most common of those 4 coronaviruses was found to destroy specific immune cells so that the immune system will not "remember" the virus 6 months later? And this virus is causing immune failure on a level that indicates its doing something similar to people.


Out of curiosity, as a layman (wouldn't recognise a virus if it was staring me in the face)

(a) does this virus damage the immune system so that one is more likely to contract other infections?
(b) does this virus provoke immune system amnesia just for itself or for other viruses as well?


I am going to clarify something: I just spent wayyyy too much time researching various coronavirus's impacts on the immune system. It's a mess. I do know a large variety of them cause immune chaos despite not even entering cells at the same receptor. It might not all be the killing of dendritic cells. Some of it seems to be antibody dependent enhancement, some of it is ???. After years of research it seems the exact mechanisms of SARS and FIP (non human but causes a similar degree of immune chaos) still haven't been pinpointed.

https://jvi.asm.org/content/86/8/4234#ref-34

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/1 ... b%3dpubmed

On question A, yes this leaves you more vulnerable to secondary infections. So does the flu.

On question B, hopefully not but that's unknown.
情報
 
art
Posts: 3574
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:25 am

Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 04 3,235
Feb 05 3,887
Feb 06 3,694
Feb 07 3,143
Feb 08 3,399
Feb 09 2,656
Feb 10 3,062

Change in last 2 days +15%

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 04 221,015
Feb 05 252,154
Feb 06 282,813
Feb 07 314,028
Feb 08 345,498
Feb 09 371,904
Feb 10 399,487

Change in last 2 days +7%

http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/10/c_76383.htm
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 6265
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:25 am

SFAviationGeek wrote:
I loathe all these news articles saying "it could be worse than people say it is."

It is prudent to expect the Chinese government to be cooking up their numbers the same way they did with SARS.

Scotron12 wrote:
And why are Governments taking extreme measures against the WHO's advice? To me it doesn't add up.

Because they know best what a politics-over-safety bad joke the WHO is.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:50 am

lightsaber wrote:
Video noting limits on reporting of Coronavirus:
https://twitter.com/WovenuGodwin/status ... 7284585473

No surprises, shortage of test kits, spreading faster than SARS, but less deadly than SARS. Still 2%... One would expect 15 million Americans to become ill, our hospitals are not ready for 300,000+ patients
art wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
.With the reopening of businesses in China on Monday, it is inevitable that a lot of healthy people will get infected and that the virus will spread into the rest of China and from there to the rest of the world.


My guess is that China is condemned to a massive number of cases with many going untreated. My worry is that it will appear in other parts of rhe world with limited health care systems. Providing areas with more developed health systems only have small numbers of infections, I'm optimistic that it can be contained . But I am not optimistic about infection of Africa and South America being contained. Time to arramge international assistance there in my iopinion so that acttion can be taken the moment it appears.

I doubt this can be contained. I care about slowing it down so that the there isn't a shortage of caregivers (people can get ill, recover, and then help others). Less prosperous regions will have it tougher. I worry about the regions you do, plus the SE Asian countries with inadequate health systems.

Lightsaber

Late edit: Local Singapore cases now exceed imported cases:
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/ ... -singapore

I personally find the Singapore cases worrying as this means the end of the cold/dry flu season is not the end of this Virus.


They could save energy, turn off the AC. Wealthy cities in hot and humid climates artificially simulate a cold and dry climate with extensive use of AC.


Also about Beijing, there appears to be nothing of interest happening there. Twitter rumor.

* Unless they're talking about checkpoints and registering people's movements, but not full isolation like Wuhan.
情報
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20563
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:14 am

All indications are testing remains behind. When I hear about cases < 25% of testing capacity, then we can say there is sufficient testing capacity. In Western countries, a patient is tested multiple times.

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Most cases of Corona virus are only identified more than 2 weeks after the initial contact.
What you are seeing now is the Corona virus the way it was more than 14 days ago in Japan, not what it is today.

Throw in the flu season and you can really only identify cases where there is a travel history or the pneumonia results in a critical condition.
One of the recent cases in Japan wasn't tested before 10 days after he started showing symptoms.

Japan could have thousands of unknowing carriers walking around and spreading it as we speak.

Things got out of control very fast in Wuhan, if you start seeing a dozen of new cases everyday within any country, it's already too late to stop it.


It doesn't kill to overreact, but it does kill to underreact.

Two points worth emphasizing.
1. Two (or the potential 4) weeks is a long time. That means a large number of cases to discover.
2. The health system is overwhelmed quickly.

Western medicine no longer has a hospital bed per thousand people to handle this. Now we have 1 per about 3500 in the USA.

Unfortunately, it will be interesting to see how much of an impact back to work has on the transmission rates.

At least the Cruise ship Westerdam has a port (Bangkok):
https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5074/

China needs to be more forthright with information. In particular surplus death rates. Usually bad information is hidden and good published. I could be far less of a cynical if information was more available.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1352
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:56 am

Latest updates:

-65 more test positive on the Diamond Princess bringing the total to 135, almost doubling from yesterday. Japan says "very difficult" to test everyone aboard the ship, not enough testing capabilities, starting to show that they are overwhelmed by the situation.
-UK announces that the virus is a serious and imminent threat to public health.

But the most worrisome is what's coming from the WHO which were until recently more concerned with avoiding panic than a pandemic:

There have been some concerning instances of onward 2019nCoV spread from people with no travel history to [China],” Ghebreyesus tweeted, using the virus’s provisional scientific name.

“The detection of a small number of cases may indicate more widespread transmission in other countries; in short, we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg.”

While the virus’s spread outside China has appeared to be slow, Ghebreyesus warned it could accelerate.

“Containment remains our objective, but all countries must use the window of opportunity created by the containment strategy to prepare for the virus’s possible arrival,” he said.


On Monday, members of a WHO expert mission flew to China to help coordinate the response to the crisis, which has infected more than 40,000 people and killed at least 908. The country reported 97 deaths on Sunday, its largest toll in a single day since the outbreak was detected in December


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... he-iceberg
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
art
Posts: 3574
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:06 pm

I wonder what progress has been made on a vaccine. I cannot conceive of a new strain of coronavirus appearing and the scientific community specialised in developing vaccines doing nothing to investigate this virus with a view to coming up with a vaccine.

The virus is proving to be a disaster for China and (I presume) will be endemic for months or possibly years there and perhaps elsewhere, too. What are the chances of a vaccine being available some time in the next year? Quarantining people with a history of contact with known sufferers will cease to be practical after a time. In any event if I were a carrier and went to work by getting on a train to go to London then going to a metro station, then walking to an office, hundreds of untraceable people (minimum) would have been in close contact with me plus a lot of people in the office. I will also have touched several things during my journey (handrails on escalators, card swiping machine on bus, metal rails on top of seats on the bus etc). I could infect dozens of people by making just one jouney.
 
Scotron12
Posts: 496
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 1:45 pm

No clue why the WHO expert mission has gone to Beijing when the epicenter is in Wuhan?

Unless there is a reason the Chinese do not want them see 1st hand what is actually happening. Groups of people being broken up by drones?
 
Scotron12
Posts: 496
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 1:45 pm

No clue why the WHO expert mission has gone to Beijing when the epicenter is in Wuhan?

Unless there is a reason the Chinese do not want them see 1st hand what is actually happening. Groups of people being broken up by drones?
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3568
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 2:30 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
-65 more test positive on the Diamond Princess bringing the total to 135, almost doubling from yesterday. Japan says "very difficult" to test everyone aboard the ship, not enough testing capabilities, starting to show that they are overwhelmed by the situation.


Yeah...it's getting REALLY crazy, and also just show how contagious the virus is. While the outbreak in Japan is contain, I'm still worried about the medical professionals there.

dampfnudel wrote:
I read on Twitter that Beijing is now on lockdown.


It's a "soft lockdown" - i.e. they're restricting who can come into residential districts (i.e. local residents only) to prevent a large group of people from gathering. Also, they're restricting what shops can be open, i.e. things like supermarket can stay open, some restaurants can stay open, but otherwise, AFAIK shopping malls are close along with any "entertainment" venues (i.e. karaoke). Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen along with Tianjin are all using the same system.

People can still travel out of the city AFAIK. Places like Shenzhen require pre-registration for any vehicles that is NOT from Shenzhen just to enter the city.
 
art
Posts: 3574
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:06 pm

UK government makes quarantine directions compulsory.

It is reported that one of the quarantined evacuees who came from China on a flight organised by the UK government has threatened to leave quarantine. All evacuees had to sign an undertaking to be quarantined on arrival back In the UK. It appears that in response to this threat the UK government has made quarantine a compulsory (rather than voluntary) measure ie if you try to leave quarantine you will be physically prevented from doing so.

Also, 5 more cases reported in England today.
 
WIederling
Posts: 9422
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:55 pm

lightsaber wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/anis_farooqui/status/1226525456838602753


Anything to give that some substance?
Fake News is the preferred sport on Twitter and other "Social Media" sites.
Murphy is an optimist
 
User avatar
trpmb6
Posts: 3018
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:45 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:30 pm

Is there any additional or new information that discusses the susceptibility of people of Asian descent to these types of viruses due to their lung physiology compared to western races? It seems the fatality rate is drastically different. Though that could be an issue with reporting of total # of cases being lower than reality due to testing limitations.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3568
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:00 pm

Latest news out of HK:
https://www.thestandnews.com/politics/% ... %E9%9B%A2/

A case is confirmed in HK where a resident that lives 10 floors separated from an earlier confirmed case (Case #12) in Tsing Yi, with suspicion that the nCoV is spreading through sewage pipe similar to Amoy Gardens SARS outbreak in 2003.

Right now they're evacuating everyone that live in a flat vertically from those 2 cases (Room #7 in all 34 floors) to a quarantine camp to make sure that the sewage system is not to be blame.

If the virus do indeed spread through the sewage system like SARS, this can get VERY dangerous especially in HK as this basically mean people are not safe even if they just stay home and not go outside.
 
dampfnudel
Posts: 596
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:42 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:25 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Latest news out of HK:
https://www.thestandnews.com/politics/% ... %E9%9B%A2/

A case is confirmed in HK where a resident that lives 10 floors separated from an earlier confirmed case (Case #12) in Tsing Yi, with suspicion that the nCoV is spreading through sewage pipe similar to Amoy Gardens SARS outbreak in 2003.

Right now they're evacuating everyone that live in a flat vertically from those 2 cases (Room #7 in all 34 floors) to a quarantine camp to make sure that the sewage system is not to be blame.

If the virus do indeed spread through the sewage system like SARS, this can get VERY dangerous especially in HK as this basically mean people are not safe even if they just stay home and not go outside.

That’s quite alarming if it can spread that easily.
A313 332 343 B703 712 722 732 73G 738 739 741 742 744 752 762 76E 764 772 AT5 CR9 D10 DHH DHT F27 GRM L10 M83 TU5
 
Scotron12
Posts: 496
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:20 pm

 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:21 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Latest news out of HK:
https://www.thestandnews.com/politics/% ... %E9%9B%A2/

A case is confirmed in HK where a resident that lives 10 floors separated from an earlier confirmed case (Case #12) in Tsing Yi, with suspicion that the nCoV is spreading through sewage pipe similar to Amoy Gardens SARS outbreak in 2003.

Right now they're evacuating everyone that live in a flat vertically from those 2 cases (Room #7 in all 34 floors) to a quarantine camp to make sure that the sewage system is not to be blame.

If the virus do indeed spread through the sewage system like SARS, this can get VERY dangerous especially in HK as this basically mean people are not safe even if they just stay home and not go outside.


If you know anyone in HK, just urge them to disinfect kitchens/bathrooms/anything around a drain daily. It's not just protective, it will help channel some of that anxious energy into something constructive.

Also, is that what's happening in the cruise ship I wonder?



Also, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20020974v1

We now have a much larger and diverse sample, this puts the case fatality rate at 1.4%. Not as terrifying as earlier numbers, still bad. It still will cause healthcare systems to be overwhelmed.
情報
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:26 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Is there any additional or new information that discusses the susceptibility of people of Asian descent to these types of viruses due to their lung physiology compared to western races? It seems the fatality rate is drastically different. Though that could be an issue with reporting of total # of cases being lower than reality due to testing limitations.


That's largely attributable to hospitals not being overwhelmed. Case fatality rate is much higher in Wuhan than the rest of China.
情報
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3568
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:31 pm

An English version of the case in HK:
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hea ... ong-health

So far, the suspicion is a vent pipe instead of the U-Shaped Sewage Pipe that was widely suspect to cause the Amoy Gardens SARS Outbreak in 2003. They're also not ruling out close contact, either, given the fact that the two residents live in the same apartment block building.

The evacuation is mostly done out of precaution. Hopefully it doesn't get worse from here.

Jouhou wrote:
If you know anyone in HK, just urge them to disinfect kitchens/bathrooms/anything around a drain daily. It's not just protective, it will help channel some of that anxious energy into something constructive.


My relatives are already doing that :).
 
dampfnudel
Posts: 596
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:42 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:06 am

The death toll has surpassed 1,000.
A313 332 343 B703 712 722 732 73G 738 739 741 742 744 752 762 76E 764 772 AT5 CR9 D10 DHH DHT F27 GRM L10 M83 TU5
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20563
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:59 am

WIederling wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/anis_farooqui/status/1226525456838602753


Anything to give that some substance?
Fake News is the preferred sport on Twitter and other "Social Media" sites.

Yes, please read prior posts of mine and others noting limits of testing. I just posted that as more information. We were previously discussing for several pages of this thread the limits of testing.

It is, unfortunately, obvious that China is under reporting this disease as they did with SARS. Now, that is only my opinion, but you simply do not pause an economy for a week on just a flu.

I also know parents of a neighbor were surprise quarantined this last weekend in Chengdu. Scary. They are not prepared. Not enough food or water. One elderly couple's perspective.

The anecdotal evidence doesn't correlate with the official Chinese press. While I agree fake news makes up a bunch of Twitter, there is too much information missing to believe China's numbers. When official news isn't plausible, what do you suggest? Sadly, 2/3rds of the Twitter posts we have later seen confirmation.

Forcing people into quarantine camps means any not infected will be.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: marcelh, seahawk and 42 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos