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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:12 am

Scotron12 wrote:

It could be birdflu (animal) cremation.

As we discussed earlier, all indications are the death rate in Wuhan is far higher than normal deaths plus Coronavirus deaths. Very scary. I hope the WHO stations people at the crematoriums 24/7 to get a true picture.

I would be very very happy to be wrong.
Look at the charts:

https://coronavirus.app/toll

Total confirmed cases 43,099
Deaths: 1,018
Recovered: 3,950

There are now, per my memory, more cases outside of China than when Wuhan locked down.

People just went back to work post Lunar New Year. The globes largest human migration reversing is going to spread Coronavirus.

Unfortunately Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore were hit by super spreaders (Typhoid Mary is the most famous example). Perhaps ventilation or plumbing contributes.

But as to field cremation, it is probably some animal being burned. I hope not Soylent Green.

Lightsaber
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Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:18 am

The first days of the Diamond Princess crisis, we could see Japanese quarantine officials and coast guard boarding the ship wearing nothing else than a face mask as protective gear. Now they are suiting up really well and taking it more seriously.
IMO this sudden stepping up could reflect that several of those initial officials may have been infected.

BEFORE
Image
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2020/0 ... s-outbreak


AFTER
Image

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/02/07 ... 818906.jpg
 
BigBazza
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:16 am

Noticed this youtube video from 2 days ago, thoughts on it?? Is it credible?
"CORONAVIRUSUPDATE 1.5 Million infected over 50,000 Cremated already says whistle blower"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDhqltW ... HY4v03C8Iw
 
T4thH
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:18 am

Who is interested in:
Therapeutic options for the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Comment in "Nature" from 10-Feb-2020.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41573-020-00016-0
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:40 am

Side comment: I keep seeing the phrase "super spreader" popping up, and I've never heard it used until recently.

Is this an actual epidemiological term, or some made up media catch phrase to generate more clicks and ad revenue?
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
Scotron12
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 5:03 am

1989worstyear wrote:
Side comment: I keep seeing the phrase "super spreader" popping up, and I've never heard it used until recently.

Is this an actual epidemiological term, or some made up media catch phrase to generate more clicks and ad revenue?


From Oxford

A perrson infected with a bacterium, virus, or other microorganism who transmits it to an unusually large number of other people.

"a superspreader could turn a single laboratory infection into a potential pandemic"

Was thought that superspreaders during the SARS outbreak could infect up to 8 others.
 
T4thH
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 5:04 am

1989worstyear wrote:
Side comment: I keep seeing the phrase "super spreader" popping up, and I've never heard it used until recently.

Is this an actual epidemiological term, or some made up media catch phrase to generate more clicks and ad revenue?

It is a epidemiological term, in case of SARS, it was an individual, who has infected 8 or more others.

In this case, you can just use Wikipedia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super-spreader
During the 2003 SARS outbreak in Beijing, China, epidemiologists defined a super-spreader as an individual with transmission of SARS to at least eight contacts.
 
yonahleung
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 5:43 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
Latest news out of HK:
https://www.thestandnews.com/politics/% ... %E9%9B%A2/

A case is confirmed in HK where a resident that lives 10 floors separated from an earlier confirmed case (Case #12) in Tsing Yi, with suspicion that the nCoV is spreading through sewage pipe similar to Amoy Gardens SARS outbreak in 2003.

Right now they're evacuating everyone that live in a flat vertically from those 2 cases (Room #7 in all 34 floors) to a quarantine camp to make sure that the sewage system is not to be blame.

If the virus do indeed spread through the sewage system like SARS, this can get VERY dangerous especially in HK as this basically mean people are not safe even if they just stay home and not go outside.

Those of us in Hong Kong were doomed after Carrie Lam refused to shut the border completely two weeks ago. I afraid the ship has sailed and we are entering the pandemic phase of the disease.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 5:48 am

BigBazza wrote:
Noticed this youtube video from 2 days ago, thoughts on it?? Is it credible?
"CORONAVIRUSUPDATE 1.5 Million infected over 50,000 Cremated already says whistle blower"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDhqltW ... HY4v03C8Iw



Is that Steve Bannon? If so, no it's not credible.

The "official numbers" are bad enough. We also know likely cases who didn't get tested who die are documented as dying from "viral pneumonia" like the Japanese national who passed away. So yes, the real numbers are worse but the official numbers are pretty devastating for something that's only been around for a couple of months.
情報
 
BigBazza
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:31 am

Jouhou wrote:
BigBazza wrote:
Noticed this youtube video from 2 days ago, thoughts on it?? Is it credible?
"CORONAVIRUSUPDATE 1.5 Million infected over 50,000 Cremated already says whistle blower"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDhqltW ... HY4v03C8Iw



Is that Steve Bannon? If so, no it's not credible.

The "official numbers" are bad enough. We also know likely cases who didn't get tested who die are documented as dying from "viral pneumonia" like the Japanese national who passed away. So yes, the real numbers are worse but the official numbers are pretty devastating for something that's only been around for a couple of months.


Thanks, seemed a bit over the top...
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:08 am

Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 04 3,235
Feb 05 3,887
Feb 06 3,694
Feb 07 3,143
Feb 08 3,399
Feb 09 2,656
Feb 10 3,062
Feb 11 2,478

Change in last 2 days -19%

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 04 221,015
Feb 05 252,154
Feb 06 282,813
Feb 07 314,028
Feb 08 345,498
Feb 09 371,904
Feb 10 399,487
Feb 11 428,438

Change in last 2 days +7%

http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/11/c_76429.htm
 
WIederling
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:25 am

lightsaber wrote:
WIederling wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
https://mobile.twitter.com/anis_farooqui/status/1226525456838602753


Anything to give that some substance?
Fake News is the preferred sport on Twitter and other "Social Media" sites.

Yes, please read prior posts of mine and others noting limits of testing. I just posted that as more information. We were previously discussing for several pages of this thread the limits of testing.

It is, unfortunately, obvious that China is under reporting this disease as they did with SARS. Now, that is only my opinion, but you simply do not pause an economy for a week on just a flu.

I also know parents of a neighbor were surprise quarantined this last weekend in Chengdu. Scary. They are not prepared. Not enough food or water. One elderly couple's perspective.

The anecdotal evidence doesn't correlate with the official Chinese press. While I agree fake news makes up a bunch of Twitter, there is too much information missing to believe China's numbers. When official news isn't plausible, what do you suggest? Sadly, 2/3rds of the Twitter posts we have later seen confirmation.

Forcing people into quarantine camps means any not infected will be.

Lightsaber

The adrenaline raiser "welded in" you linked to and that I referenced was not about testing.

Britsh government has made quarantine involuntary :-)

compartmented quarantine would be nice but is out of the question for epidemic infections.
You can do that with the rare infections cases like Marburg or similar.

I'd contest that western bureaucracies would handle this any better.
( and no region here has the population densities found in China.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:50 am

WIederling wrote:
I'd contest that western bureaucracies would handle this any better.
( and no region here has the population densities found in China.)


You think that the western bureaucracies' failure to force doctors to sign a confession for spreading rumours if they alert other doctors to the danger of a new virus is no better than the approach of the PRC authorities?

I think history will show that the totalitarian nature of the PRC greatly exacerbated this problem.
 
WIederling
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:12 am

art wrote:
WIederling wrote:
I'd contest that western bureaucracies would handle this any better.
( and no region here has the population densities found in China.)


You think that the western bureaucracies' failure to force doctors to sign a confession for spreading rumours if they alert other doctors to the danger of a new virus is no better than the approach of the PRC authorities?


Look into the history of exposing BSE in Germany.
The bureaucracy here really leaned on the persons bringing this up with a vengeance.
Suppression here was effective till the end of the 90ties. i.e. over 5 to 9 years depending
on when you start counting.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Alfons
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:01 am

WIederling wrote:
art wrote:
WIederling wrote:
I'd contest that western bureaucracies would handle this any better.
( and no region here has the population densities found in China.)


You think that the western bureaucracies' failure to force doctors to sign a confession for spreading rumours if they alert other doctors to the danger of a new virus is no better than the approach of the PRC authorities?


Look into the history of exposing BSE in Germany.
The bureaucracy here really leaned on the persons bringing this up with a vengeance.
Suppression here was effective till the end of the 90ties. i.e. over 5 to 9 years depending
on when you start counting.


Sure. You can also go 80 years back in Germany, and times were even more afwul then. You got killed on the road instantenously when you opened the mouth against the german government. But BSE is 30 years ago, and you and me are living today. So I don't understand what's your point.
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:40 am

WIederling wrote:
art wrote:
WIederling wrote:
I'd contest that western bureaucracies would handle this any better.
( and no region here has the population densities found in China.)


You think that the western bureaucracies' failure to force doctors to sign a confession for spreading rumours if they alert other doctors to the danger of a new virus is no better than the approach of the PRC authorities?


Look into the history of exposing BSE in Germany.
The bureaucracy here really leaned on the persons bringing this up with a vengeance.
Suppression here was effective till the end of the 90ties. i.e. over 5 to 9 years depending
on when you start counting.


I know there were powerful forces attempting to control many things in West Germany and (you say) in Germany. However the ethos of the PRC is that everything should be controlled by the party and, it seems to me, the communist party has an obsessive desire to control information. This country is similar to what George Orwell forsesaw in his book 1984 - a state which exerts total control over its citizens and tailors information and history to benefit the party. To me the daily update released by their National Health Commission might almost have come from the Ministry of Truth featured in 1984. Its function was to ensure that truth be suppressed or altered to suit the purposes of the party.

The political system in China is a hindrance to other countries that are attempting to assess the magnitude of the threat of coronavirus and how to respond to it.
 
WIederling
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:29 pm

art wrote:
The political system in China is a hindrance to other countries that are attempting to assess the magnitude of the threat of coronavirus and how to respond to it.


Is the US so much different? those in the background only seem to more elegant ways to achieve their objectives.
( obvious it is not "The Party" working the levers ... )
Recipients are so well trained they don't even notice that they are fed fake stuff anymore.
With the right trigger they all go through the same gyrations of agitation. never looking behind the up front information.
( Even Wikipedia is hit by busybodies correcting the historical vision. Just go back in the history of some articles and notice the change in taste and purported facts )
Murphy is an optimist
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:35 pm

Error in California. Evacuee with Corona Virus found in San Diego (note, misleading headline, released to quarantine, not to general population):
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health ... li=BBnb7Kz

I hope the 14 day quarantine is enough.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The first days of the Diamond Princess crisis, we could see Japanese quarantine officials and coast guard boarding the ship wearing nothing else than a face mask as protective gear. Now they are suiting up really well and taking it more seriously.
IMO this sudden stepping up could reflect that several of those initial officials may have been infected.

There are several countries we can assume a silent outbreak is happening. It is possible one official was infected. It could be a doubling of cases scared them into proper PPE.




art wrote:
WIederling wrote:
I know there were powerful forces attempting to control many things in West Germany and (you say) in Germany. However the ethos of the PRC is that everything should be controlled by the party and, it seems to me, the communist party has an obsessive desire to control information. This country is similar to what George Orwell forsesaw in his book 1984 - a state which exerts total control over its citizens and tailors information and history to benefit the party. To me the daily update released by their National Health Commission might almost have come from the Ministry of Truth featured in 1984. Its function was to ensure that truth be suppressed or altered to suit the purposes of the party.

The political system in China is a hindrance to other countries that are attempting to assess the magnitude of the threat of coronavirus and how to respond to it.

Lack of information is spreading the virus in China and weakening faith in the CCP.

If the numbers are being manipulated for politics, than rumors spread fast.

Lack of information isn't helping. I prefer the US approach to own up to mistakes (and not punish honest mistakes as that keeps people from hiding information).

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:18 pm

Westerdam turned away from Thailand:
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/4714464002

What a cruise! Note: source not confirmed.
Winter is coming.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:27 pm

It seems the Human body is capable of killing itself while trying to protect itself from this virus.
https://focustaiwan.tw/sci-tech/202002090008

Zhou Zheng (周正), an expert in respiratory medicine at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University in Hunan Province, said one feature of 2019-nCoV infection is that patients can develop moderate symptoms in the first two days of infection but can become seriously ill on the third day or later.

Attributing this to the phenomenon of cytokine storm -- a high level of circulating inflammatory cytokines -- Zhou said the novel coronavirus can stimulate the body's immune system, which can further damage the cells.

"A normal immune system protects, but an over-active immune system can not only damage the lungs but also other organs, including the kidneys, liver and heart," he said.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:35 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Westerdam turned away from Thailand:
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/4714464002

What a cruise! Note: source not confirmed.


https://fortune.com/2020/02/11/carnival ... ronavirus/

It's confirmed by Thai officials.

What a cruise indeed, and all these with ZERO confirmed case aboard :banghead:

yonahleung wrote:
Those of us in Hong Kong were doomed after Carrie Lam refused to shut the border completely two weeks ago. I afraid the ship has sailed and we are entering the pandemic phase of the disease.


And HK just pass Singapore today in # of confirmed cases. Bravo, Carrie Lam, getting first place every year indeed.

Oh, and neighboring Macau haven't report a new cases for a few days now. Smaller population is one thing, but Macau took the measures to quarantine people well before HK govt even put that into consideration.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:44 pm

Please take Trump comments to another thread.
Winter is coming.
 
WIederling
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:57 pm

casinterest wrote:
It seems the Human body is capable of killing itself while trying to protect itself from this virus.
https://focustaiwan.tw/sci-tech/202002090008

Zhou Zheng (周正), an expert in respiratory medicine at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University in Hunan Province, said one feature of 2019-nCoV infection is that patients can develop moderate symptoms in the first two days of infection but can become seriously ill on the third day or later.

Attributing this to the phenomenon of cytokine storm -- a high level of circulating inflammatory cytokines -- Zhou said the novel coronavirus can stimulate the body's immune system, which can further damage the cells.

"A normal immune system protects, but an over-active immune system can not only damage the lungs but also other organs, including the kidneys, liver and heart," he said.


that would jibe with a significant part / majority of infections being unremarkable,
barely distinguishable from established virus infections
but a select few of the infected really come down hard with life threatening symptoms.
( would explain the atypical propagation visible.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:51 pm

casinterest wrote:
It seems the Human body is capable of killing itself while trying to protect itself from this virus.
https://focustaiwan.tw/sci-tech/202002090008

Zhou Zheng (周正), an expert in respiratory medicine at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University in Hunan Province, said one feature of 2019-nCoV infection is that patients can develop moderate symptoms in the first two days of infection but can become seriously ill on the third day or later.

Attributing this to the phenomenon of cytokine storm -- a high level of circulating inflammatory cytokines -- Zhou said the novel coronavirus can stimulate the body's immune system, which can further damage the cells.

"A normal immune system protects, but an over-active immune system can not only damage the lungs but also other organs, including the kidneys, liver and heart," he said.

this is probably worst news since beginning of the issue. Spanish flu scenario becomes a reality.
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 5:18 pm

New name coined for this virus by WHO is Covid-2019. Or is it Covid-19?

The World Health Organization says the official name for the disease caused by the new coronavirus is Covid-2019.

"We now have a name for the disease and it's Covid-19," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters in Geneva.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51466362
Last edited by art on Tue Feb 11, 2020 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
THS214
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 5:20 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
Side comment: I keep seeing the phrase "super spreader" popping up, and I've never heard it used until recently.

Is this an actual epidemiological term, or some made up media catch phrase to generate more clicks and ad revenue?


Its not a good word as 20% are those "super spreaders"
 
SFAviationGeek
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:27 pm

Source: The Guardian

"Coronavirus may be peaking in China, says medical adviser

Here is some more detail on those comments from Zhong Nanshan, the Chinese government’s senior medical adviser.

In an interview with Reuters, the 83-year-old epidemiologist who won fame for combating the Sars epidemic in 2003, said the coronavirus outbreak was hitting a peak in China and may be over by April.

He said a forecast based on mathematical modelling, recent events and government action suggested the peak should come in middle or late February, followed by a plateau and decrease.

“I hope this outbreak or this event may be over in something like April,” he said in a hospital run by Guangzhou Medical University, where 11 coronavirus patients were being treated.

“We don’t know why it’s so contagious, so that’s a big problem,” added Zhong, whose previous forecast of an earlier peak turned out to be premature. He said there was a gradual reduction in new cases in the southern province of Guangdong where he was, and also in Zhejiang and elsewhere.
"

Sorry to put a kabash on all the paranoia going on.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:47 pm

art wrote:
New name coined for this virus by WHO is Covid-2019. Or is it Covid-19?

The World Health Organization says the official name for the disease caused by the new coronavirus is Covid-2019.

"We now have a name for the disease and it's Covid-19," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters in Geneva.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51466362


:banghead: good job WHO. I'm sure that name will catch on as well as nCoV and totally prevent people from calling it "China virus", "kung fu flu", "[insert racist fake Chinese word] + flu/virus" like I've been hearing. Good going. I'm pretty sure "Wuhan virus" would be a better option for getting people to call it something that doesn't go fully racist.


casinterest wrote:
It seems the Human body is capable of killing itself while trying to protect itself from this virus.
https://focustaiwan.tw/sci-tech/202002090008

Zhou Zheng (周正), an expert in respiratory medicine at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University in Hunan Province, said one feature of 2019-nCoV infection is that patients can develop moderate symptoms in the first two days of infection but can become seriously ill on the third day or later.

Attributing this to the phenomenon of cytokine storm -- a high level of circulating inflammatory cytokines -- Zhou said the novel coronavirus can stimulate the body's immune system, which can further damage the cells.

"A normal immune system protects, but an over-active immune system can not only damage the lungs but also other organs, including the kidneys, liver and heart," he said.



Influenza can do this too, just not at the same frequency. "Cytokine storm" and secondary infections are what usually cause young and healthy people to die when they get the flu. It's a good thing to learn about, especially the people who are like "I have a healthy immune system and never get the flu, I don't need a shot" . It's mass produced and available in the U.S. (Flu shot) stop whining and just get it at least once every few years if you're one of these people. Reduce the risk of one of many things that can kill you.

If China did flu shots (more than the 1-2% of their population they vaccinate now) they might have had an easier time sorting through sick people and not have had their hospitals overburdened so badly.
情報
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:14 pm

SFAviationGeek wrote:
“We don’t know why it’s so contagious, so that’s a big problem,” added Zhong, whose previous forecast of an earlier peak turned out to be premature. He said there was a gradual reduction in new cases in the southern province of Guangdong where he was, and also in Zhejiang and elsewhere."

Sorry to put a kabash on all the paranoia going on.


How can it be established that his prediction is based on accurate data if he is relying on official figures? It is fairly obvious that official figures are unreliable:

- data is collected and controlled by Chinese bureaucracy
- infection confirmation numbers are limited by lack of test kits and by definition the number of confirmed cases cannot exceed tne number of tests done
- hospitals unable to receive all cases, so even if sufferers could be tested, they are not
- deaths of people with pre- existing conditions may not be recorded as Covid-19 deaths
- deaths of people at home may not be recorded as Covid-19 deaths

I would love to agree that the agitation over this virus is due to paranoia but I don't think there can be an accurate assessment of the evolution of this epidemic due to inadequate or misleading data enanating from the Chinese authorities.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:31 pm

art wrote:
SFAviationGeek wrote:
“We don’t know why it’s so contagious, so that’s a big problem,” added Zhong, whose previous forecast of an earlier peak turned out to be premature. He said there was a gradual reduction in new cases in the southern province of Guangdong where he was, and also in Zhejiang and elsewhere."

Sorry to put a kabash on all the paranoia going on.


How can it be established that his prediction is based on accurate data if he is relying on official figures? It is fairly obvious that official figures are unreliable:

- data is collected and controlled by Chinese bureaucracy
- infection confirmation numbers are limited by lack of test kits and by definition the number of confirmed cases cannot exceed tne number of tests done
- hospitals unable to receive all cases, so even if sufferers could be tested, they are not
- deaths of people with pre- existing conditions may not be recorded as Covid-19 deaths
- deaths of people at home may not be recorded as Covid-19 deaths

I would love to agree that the agitation over this virus is due to paranoia but I don't think there can be an accurate assessment of the evolution of this epidemic due to inadequate or misleading data enanating from the Chinese authorities.

I agree with Art:
1. Prior prediction wrong.
2. Predictions are only as good as the data.
3. Predictions only work if conditions do not change.

China just moved millions of people back via mass transit (air, rail, and bus).

Chinese workers still live in crowded dormatories where better companies have 4 to a room, sometimes 8 to 12.

Factories and communal dinning are certain to spike transmission.

The data must get past where it is limited by numbers that can be tested. The crematoriums are at capacity; official numbers fo not adequately explain that.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
SFAviationGeek
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:06 pm

New cases in Hubei down to 1,600 today. The lowest since January. I have yet to see compelling evidence data is being manipulated or they're lack of cases. I don't count random twitter reports/pictures as anything to read in to.

I'll repeat what I said before. If this was explosively contagious as some of you read in to, we would've seen a global pandemic when 5 million people left Wuhan before January 23rd. Or perhaps millions of people have it and don't know which would be great news because the mortality rate would be infinitesmal and this would be a nothing virus. I doubt that though considering it leaves a very notable marking on the lungs easily seen by x-rays.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:38 pm

SFAviationGeek wrote:
New cases in Hubei down to 1,600 today. The lowest since January. I have yet to see compelling evidence data is being manipulated or they're lack of cases. I don't count random twitter reports/pictures as anything to read in to.

I'll repeat what I said before. If this was explosively contagious as some of you read in to, we would've seen a global pandemic when 5 million people left Wuhan before January 23rd. Or perhaps millions of people have it and don't know which would be great news because the mortality rate would be infinitesmal and this would be a nothing virus. I doubt that though considering it leaves a very notable marking on the lungs easily seen by x-rays.


How do you explain the sudden decrease of new confirmed cases?
Are people becoming immune?
How do you explain that hundreds of people have been infected on a cruise ship if this was not very contagious?

The explanation for the lower numbers may be several:
-Less test kits available for Hubei considering that the rest of the nation is going to need them.
-Testing may now be limited to children only
-Less medical staff available for testing as they return to their resp. provinces, or have been infected.

For instance, Japan didn't confirm any new cases on the cruise ship today probably because they are busy testing people of the 4th evacuation flight.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:52 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
SFAviationGeek wrote:
New cases in Hubei down to 1,600 today. The lowest since January. I have yet to see compelling evidence data is being manipulated or they're lack of cases. I don't count random twitter reports/pictures as anything to read in to.

I'll repeat what I said before. If this was explosively contagious as some of you read in to, we would've seen a global pandemic when 5 million people left Wuhan before January 23rd. Or perhaps millions of people have it and don't know which would be great news because the mortality rate would be infinitesmal and this would be a nothing virus. I doubt that though considering it leaves a very notable marking on the lungs easily seen by x-rays.


How do you explain the sudden decrease of new confirmed cases?
Are people becoming immune?
How do you explain that hundreds of people have been infected on a cruise ship if this was not very contagious?

The explanation for the lower numbers may be several:
-Less test kits available for Hubei considering that the rest of the nation is going to need them.
-Testing may now be limited to children only
-Less medical staff available for testing as they return to their resp. provinces, or have been infected.

For instance, Japan didn't confirm any new cases on the cruise ship today probably because they are busy testing people of the 4th evacuation flight.

Taiwan press is claiming asymptomatic cases are no longer counted:

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874490

Great news, ignore the blue stick, you are only pregnant if there is a bump. /sarcasm

I realize Taiwan and China press aren't friendly. I really hope this isn't true. I would rather believe incompetence than malace.

Lightsaber

Late edit, per link this has been the process since 2/8.
I don't know the veracity of this claim (I cannot read Mandarin). What I know is anecdotal evidence usually lines up with fact.

This is a slow disease with low, but significant Ro, between 2.2 and 3.2. It takes weeks before someone has major symptoms and sees a doctor.
Winter is coming.
 
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Jouhou
Topic Author
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:07 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
SFAviationGeek wrote:
New cases in Hubei down to 1,600 today. The lowest since January. I have yet to see compelling evidence data is being manipulated or they're lack of cases. I don't count random twitter reports/pictures as anything to read in to.

I'll repeat what I said before. If this was explosively contagious as some of you read in to, we would've seen a global pandemic when 5 million people left Wuhan before January 23rd. Or perhaps millions of people have it and don't know which would be great news because the mortality rate would be infinitesmal and this would be a nothing virus. I doubt that though considering it leaves a very notable marking on the lungs easily seen by x-rays.


How do you explain the sudden decrease of new confirmed cases?
Are people becoming immune?
How do you explain that hundreds of people have been infected on a cruise ship if this was not very contagious?

The explanation for the lower numbers may be several:
-Less test kits available for Hubei considering that the rest of the nation is going to need them.
-Testing may now be limited to children only
-Less medical staff available for testing as they return to their resp. provinces, or have been infected.

For instance, Japan didn't confirm any new cases on the cruise ship today probably because they are busy testing people of the 4th evacuation flight.


While I don't trust the numbers, surely the fact that people are rarely leaving their homes is helping. Can't spread it if you don't have contact with others. You can't get it if you have no contact with others.
情報
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:30 am

Researchers at Imperial college London have interesting findings:

https://www.businessinsider.com/1-in-19 ... sed-2020-2

"The researchers looked at roughly 750 passengers who traveled from Wuhan back to their home countries on government-arranged flights. Upon their return, the travelers were all kept in isolation and tested for the coronavirus immediately; many were diagnosed, some of whom didn't present any symptoms."

"That suggests a bottleneck in the testing and diagnosing of patients. "

"Still, the Imperial College researchers said comparing the death toll with this higher estimated number of cases suggests the coronavirus' fatality rate could be very low."

More interesting. Best news is lower fatality rate, but only if Wuhan has no higher death rate than normal. Any elevated non-diagnosed deaths need to be disclosed.

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2931
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:30 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
How do you explain the sudden decrease of new confirmed cases?
Are people becoming immune?
How do you explain that hundreds of people have been infected on a cruise ship if this was not very contagious?

Infection is not a yes-or-no thing. It is possible that general population in the epicenter is exposed to the virus below virulence levels, but enough to develop immunity.
Isolation of accute cases and not acting on symptomless also creates evolution pressure to reduced pathogenic properties.
It may be too quick for those mechanisms to kick in, but this is how epidemic weakens.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2931
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:33 am

lightsaber wrote:
More interesting. Best news is lower fatality rate, but only if Wuhan has no higher death rate than normal. Any elevated non-diagnosed deaths need to be disclosed.
Lightsaber

You keep saying that as if statistics is a top priority in epidemic area. It is not.
Compare with "we don't do body counts" (c)Gen. Tommy R. Franks
 
smolt
Posts: 276
Joined: Fri Nov 05, 1999 12:11 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:49 am

Reportedly another 39 passengers aboard the Diamond Princess have been confirmed infected on 12 Japan Time.
Four passengers are in serious ill status, three out of them are Japanese national.
Plus, one quarantine officer in charge of delivering and collecting questionaire form to from
passengers inside the boat has been confirmed infected. They say he was wearing gloves and a mask but not in a protective clothing.

Smolt from Chiba Japan

11:14JST or 2:14 GMT 12 feb
 
Scotron12
Posts: 496
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:26 am

Maybe the thread title should be given it's official name: COVID-19
 
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Erebus
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:41 am

Jouhou wrote:
art wrote:
New name coined for this virus by WHO is Covid-2019. Or is it Covid-19?

The World Health Organization says the official name for the disease caused by the new coronavirus is Covid-2019.

"We now have a name for the disease and it's Covid-19," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters in Geneva.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51466362

:banghead: good job WHO. I'm sure that name will catch on as well as nCoV and totally prevent people from calling it "China virus", "kung fu flu", "[insert racist fake Chinese word] + flu/virus" like I've been hearing. Good going. I'm pretty sure "Wuhan virus" would be a better option for getting people to call it something that doesn't go fully racist.



I'd call it the Xi Jinping virus/flu/syndrome. Seems fair?
 
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Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:46 am

Erebus wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
art wrote:
New name coined for this virus by WHO is Covid-2019. Or is it Covid-19?



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51466362

:banghead: good job WHO. I'm sure that name will catch on as well as nCoV and totally prevent people from calling it "China virus", "kung fu flu", "[insert racist fake Chinese word] + flu/virus" like I've been hearing. Good going. I'm pretty sure "Wuhan virus" would be a better option for getting people to call it something that doesn't go fully racist.



I'd call it the Xi Jinping virus/flu/syndrome. Seems fair?


Gotta keep it down to one or two syllables or it won't catch on...

Scotron12 wrote:
Maybe the thread title should be given it's official name: COVID-19


Let's see if anyone will ever call it that first. It's worse than the original nCoV name they gave it. The WHO needs to roll back a couple of restrictions in their name making policy I think. That's fine for some little known virus only discussed by people in a lab, that's a stupid name for something the whole world is discussing. People will find something else to call it.
情報
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3568
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:05 am

Jouhou wrote:
Let's see if anyone will ever call it that first. It's worse than the original nCoV name they gave it. The WHO needs to roll back a couple of restrictions in their name making policy I think. That's fine for some little known virus only discussed by people in a lab, that's a stupid name for something the whole world is discussing. People will find something else to call it.


Agree - even 2019-nCoV sounds better than this BS CoVID-2019 or whatever...

Just call it Novel Coronavirus if WHO doesn't want to "offend" anybody.
 
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Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:07 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Let's see if anyone will ever call it that first. It's worse than the original nCoV name they gave it. The WHO needs to roll back a couple of restrictions in their name making policy I think. That's fine for some little known virus only discussed by people in a lab, that's a stupid name for something the whole world is discussing. People will find something else to call it.


Agree - even 2019-nCoV sounds better than this BS CoVID-2019 or whatever...

Just call it Novel Coronavirus if WHO doesn't want to "offend" anybody.



Personally I've grown fond of the awkward translation from Chinese "New Crown Virus"


Edit: apparently covid-19 is just what they've named the disease. The virus has been named SARS-CoV-2 by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 7.937862v1

Apparently we can call it SARS 2. Oh boy, a sequel!
情報
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1349
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:53 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The first days of the Diamond Princess crisis, we could see Japanese quarantine officials and coast guard boarding the ship wearing nothing else than a face mask as protective gear. Now they are suiting up really well and taking it more seriously.
IMO this sudden stepping up could reflect that several of those initial officials may have been infected.

BEFORE
Image
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2020/0 ... s-outbreak


AFTER
Image

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/02/07 ... 818906.jpg



In reference to the above post, my prediction has come true, Japan's NHK is now reporting that a quarantine officer who got aboard the cruise ship on the 3rd of February has tested positive after coming in contact with dozens of occupants to take their temperature and questionnaires wearing only gloves and a mask as PPE. Their sudden change in behavior with regards to PPE and the initial recklessness pointed to these facts. I predict that more quarantine officers will test positive in the coming days.
This is an example of why it matters to count these cases towards the tally for Japan. Exposure of medical and other personnel can cause new clusters/outbreaks.


39 additional infections confirmed for a total of 174, of whom 4 in critical conditions with 2 of them in ICU.
Japan now has over 200 cases, the situation is escalating quite steadily.

This is becoming a real tragedy.

PM Abe working to secure testing capacity of 1000 per day by February 18th.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202002 ... 11000.html
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20554
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:20 am

kalvado wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
More interesting. Best news is lower fatality rate, but only if Wuhan has no higher death rate than normal. Any elevated non-diagnosed deaths need to be disclosed.
Lightsaber

You keep saying that as if statistics is a top priority in epidemic area. It is not.
Compare with "we don't do body counts" (c)Gen. Tommy R. Franks

If you aren't counting bodies cremated, you already are in such bad shape civil law is over. This isn't a war where doing so gets people killed.

This is disease control 101. A city that can't count the dead is in such bad shape game over.

Officially, deaths are up only about a hundred a day. I calculated a relatively low number of normal deaths per day.

How bad are you implying?

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
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Jouhou
Topic Author
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:21 am

Apparently the Chinese government is telling local officials they're going too far and they need to stop doing things like locking people into their apartment buildings.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-e ... d-of-virus
情報
 
kalvado
Posts: 2931
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:00 am

lightsaber wrote:
kalvado wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
More interesting. Best news is lower fatality rate, but only if Wuhan has no higher death rate than normal. Any elevated non-diagnosed deaths need to be disclosed.
Lightsaber

You keep saying that as if statistics is a top priority in epidemic area. It is not.
Compare with "we don't do body counts" (c)Gen. Tommy R. Franks

If you aren't counting bodies cremated, you already are in such bad shape civil law is over. This isn't a war where doing so gets people killed.

This is disease control 101. A city that can't count the dead is in such bad shape game over.

Officially, deaths are up only about a hundred a day. I calculated a relatively low number of normal deaths per day.

How bad are you implying?

Lightsaber

I am implying that record keeping and especially consolidation is way down priority list. It really looks like you are too much into aviation style records - if there is no paperwork it is not done. Which is nice and good, but sometimes not practical.
What are the benefits of counting, really? For those who struggle to keep things afloat, this is a liability, not an asset.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2931
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:04 am

Erebus wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
art wrote:
New name coined for this virus by WHO is Covid-2019. Or is it Covid-19?



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51466362

:banghead: good job WHO. I'm sure that name will catch on as well as nCoV and totally prevent people from calling it "China virus", "kung fu flu", "[insert racist fake Chinese word] + flu/virus" like I've been hearing. Good going. I'm pretty sure "Wuhan virus" would be a better option for getting people to call it something that doesn't go fully racist.



I'd call it the Xi Jinping virus/flu/syndrome. Seems fair?

So once it is over, it will be Xi Jumping infection which was successfully contained. Great idea, giving credit to the great leader is never a bad thing
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1349
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:23 am

I just talked to a Chinese business partner who normally works in Shenzhen but is at his family's in Zhumadian, a city just 300km from Wuhan.

Several points:
-Zhumadian is on total lock down, the streets are closed and so are shops, due to several tens of thousands having travelled there from Wuhan for the Chinese new year. Being close to the epicenter, things are quite grim, but the person and his family are safe and in good health. They are staying inside, kind of trapped in their own house, trying to ride this storm.
-While some businesses opened on the 10th, this particular person's company/factory in Shenzhen is not allowed to reopen yet.
-Many people seem to have plenty of food reserves for now, thanks to buying in massively for the festivities of the Chinese New Year.
-It seems that the reopenings are limited to essential industries, such as pharmaceuticals and basic necessities. Reports of auto and tech factories producing masks, goggles and gloves instead of cars.
-No widespread reopenings going on yet, so basically China is still on lock down, thank god.


A shortage of face masks has prompted Chinese companies from car manufacturers to energy providers to start making their own to help fight the coronavirus.
Auto companies including BYD Co. have reconfigured production lines to churn out masks that can help block particles and germs, with petroleum giant Sinopec and iPhone assembler Foxconn joining the fray. Some are also dabbling in disinfectant and goggles.

While China is the world’s biggest manufacturer, its current production capacity of almost 15 million masks a day isn’t enough in the current crisis. The quick switch from one product to another underscores China’s strength as a manufacturing powerhouse and highlights the urgency with which companies are trying to stop the deadly virus from paralyzing operations.

China has declared a “people’s war” against the most serious virus outbreak in decades that’s led to more than 900 fatalities. At stake is also the country’s economy, as companies struggle to resume production after a national Lunar New Year’s holiday that was extended to help contain the virus. Without proper safety measures such as masks, companies risk the outbreak spreading among employees.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... oronavirus
 
art
Posts: 3574
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:58 am

Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 04 3,235
Feb 05 3,887
Feb 06 3,694
Feb 07 3,143
Feb 08 3,399
Feb 09 2,656
Feb 10 3,062
Feb 11 2,478
Feb 12 2,015

Change in last 2 days -20%

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 04 221,015
Feb 05 252,154
Feb 06 282,813
Feb 07 314,028
Feb 08 345,498
Feb 09 371,904
Feb 10 399,487
Feb 11 428,438
Feb 12 451,462

Change in last 2 days +5%

http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/12/c_76463.htm

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