Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Jouhou · Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:38 am

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... 060W7?il=0

We apparently have Florida Man: Chinese Edition

Scotron12 · Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:07 am

art wrote:
Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 04 3,235
Feb 05 3,887
Feb 06 3,694
Feb 07 3,143
Feb 08 3,399
Feb 09 2,656
Feb 10 3,062
Feb 11 2,478
Feb 12 2,015

Change in last 2 days -20%

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 04 221,015
Feb 05 252,154
Feb 06 282,813
Feb 07 314,028
Feb 08 345,498
Feb 09 371,904
Feb 10 399,487
Feb 11 428,438
Feb 12 451,462

Change in last 2 days +5%

http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/12/c_76463.htm

Wonder why the decrease in infected? Can these figures be genuine or being manipulated by the Chinese government to portray the situation is under control?

max999 · Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:11 am

WIederling wrote:
Erebus wrote:
I'd call it the Xi Jinping virus/flu/syndrome. Seems fair?

Probably says more about you than about the virus.

If a.net isn't already blocked in mainland China, it will be censored by tonight. Making Internet jokes or memes about Xi is quite dangerous in the mainland.

JetBuddy · Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:16 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
art wrote:
Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 04 3,235
Feb 05 3,887
Feb 06 3,694
Feb 07 3,143
Feb 08 3,399
Feb 09 2,656
Feb 10 3,062
Feb 11 2,478
Feb 12 2,015

Change in last 2 days -20%

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 04 221,015
Feb 05 252,154
Feb 06 282,813
Feb 07 314,028
Feb 08 345,498
Feb 09 371,904
Feb 10 399,487
Feb 11 428,438
Feb 12 451,462

Change in last 2 days +5%

http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/12/c_76463.htm

Wonder why the decrease in infected? Can these figures be genuine or being manipulated by the Chinese government to portray the situation is under control?

I think it's lack of test kits. If you don't have enough test kits, you can't test. And they stopped counting asymptomatic (infected but showing no signs of it) pasients. At least that's what I read somewhere.

lightsaber · Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:08 pm

kalvado wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
kalvado wrote:
You keep saying that as if statistics is a top priority in epidemic area. It is not.
Compare with "we don't do body counts" (c)Gen. Tommy R. Franks

If you aren't counting bodies cremated, you already are in such bad shape civil law is over. This isn't a war where doing so gets people killed.

This is disease control 101. A city that can't count the dead is in such bad shape game over.

Officially, deaths are up only about a hundred a day. I calculated a relatively low number of normal deaths per day.

How bad are you implying?

Lightsaber

I am implying that record keeping and especially consolidation is way down priority list. It really looks like you are too much into aviation style records - if there is no paperwork it is not done. Which is nice and good, but sometimes not practical.
What are the benefits of counting, really? For those who struggle to keep things afloat, this is a liability, not an asset.

The Chinese cities are struggling to stay afloat? Then shouldn't the rest of the world know how bad it really is?

How about I'm someone who makes decisions. If the information to make decisions is bad, bad decisions are made.

I'm not asking for quality assurance on everything. I'm saying count the bodies.
My response was in a discussion on how the death total is China is far higher. I estimate about 5 times higher in Wuhan. Probably a higher ration on non-Wuhan cases.

At work yesterday, with a bunch of coworkers who are excellent at determining trends, my estimate of coronavirus deaths was the low estimate.

We know, via many leaked reports, that crematorium utilization is 24/7 (see prior links).
If my estimate that deaths are five times higher than being reported (due to non-diagnosed cases), than counting the bodies is easy. My estimate is based on crematorium utilization.
If my coworkers estimate is accurate, than you are correct, the cities are struggling and too busy to bother with 'statistics.' Their estimate is based on a different approach to crematorium utilization.

Do you have any friends who are doctors and thus have told you about death reporting requirements?

Which is it? How the Western healthcare/policy systems should adapt to this Coronavirus should change between 500 deaths per day and a thousand deaths (or more) per day. In no way do the official numbers from China seem plausible based on anecdotal information to anyone trained in statistics and how to determine if your data is missing the issue.

Lightsaber

art · Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:00 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:
art wrote:
Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 04 3,235
Feb 05 3,887
Feb 06 3,694
Feb 07 3,143
Feb 08 3,399
Feb 09 2,656
Feb 10 3,062
Feb 11 2,478
Feb 12 2,015

Change in last 2 days -20%

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 04 221,015
Feb 05 252,154
Feb 06 282,813
Feb 07 314,028
Feb 08 345,498
Feb 09 371,904
Feb 10 399,487
Feb 11 428,438
Feb 12 451,462

Change in last 2 days +5%

http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/12/c_76463.htm

Wonder why the decrease in infected? Can these figures be genuine or being manipulated by the Chinese government to portray the situation is under control?

I think it's lack of test kits. If you don't have enough test kits, you can't test. And they stopped counting asymptomatic (infected but showing no signs of it) pasients. At least that's what I read somewhere.

I think that the lack of kits may be an important factor in the figures apparently being unreliable.

People with symptoms need to be tested to confirm infection.
Patients confirmed to have the virus need to be tested again after treatment and recovery to confirm they are free of the virus.

There is a shortage of test kits. f can see that if kits are being used on recovering patients to check they are free of the virus before being released, there will be less kits available to test people potentially infected. This will depress the number of new infections being reported.

There could also be an attempt by local party officials to persuade medics to test people who do not show symptoms since this will reduce confirmed infection figures. In this way local party officials can report to those above that new confirmed cases are reducing.

As some have pointed out, a really useful figure to know would be daily cremations in the city concerned and to compare that with historic data to see the difference.

zakuivcustom · Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:15 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Westerdam turned away from Thailand:
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/4714464002

What a cruise! Note: source not confirmed.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coron ... anoukville

Westerdam finally find a port, with Cambodia letting the cruise ship dock at Sihanoukville.

Finally brings an end to that long journey in the sea.

JetBuddy · Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:14 pm

The only thing we know for sure is that we can't trust the Chinese Government to be honest about anything.

anshabhi · Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:23 pm

Going by how much I have heard about how contagious Coronavirus is, it's rather surprising that only about 10% of people who had contact with infected patients got it.

Is coronavirus curable in any way? 2.5% death rate sound not so bad. How many people have recovered so far?

lightsaber · Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:40 pm

A facinating timeline:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/from- ... ar-BBZVebI

Amazes me first rumors were only January 5th (Because China punished doctors for discussing).
January 20th was the first publicly confirmed P2P. Again, because doctors were not allowed to discuss.
January 23rd, Wuhan locked down (after 5 million left the city)
Jan 25, Lunar new year
Jan 26 Wuhan goes into more severe lock down.

Eventually, those lockdowns should work. But as data had the criteria changed, I believe, like SARS, we will only know the truth from outside countries.

Because this is a slow to develop, slow to test virus, we are unfortunately a long time away from the peak. As I posted a link before, China only counts severe cases, not positive cases (many more links out there). This means:
1. Fewer cases to report (artificially reduces number of cases, it means from 2/8 data must be scaled and not taken at face value).
2. There is a multi week delay. I believe this is so China can do better PR on treating patients.

Unfortunately, this means asymptomatic infectious people, who tested positive, are now spreading the virus.

I believe we will have a false decline in infections and deaths reported while the opposite happens.

This means incorrect policy decisions are made and thousands, if not more, die unnecessarily.

It also means people will really panic and stop believing official news if this breaks out. Some experts believe that is just beginning:

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/mobile.reute ... SKBN2061KK

Bad information drives panic and distrust of institutions. That is why I want better information.

If I'm right, I will be chicken little for two weeks then...

I hope I am proven wrong.

zakuivcustom wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Westerdam turned away from Thailand:
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/4714464002

What a cruise! Note: source not confirmed.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coron ... anoukville

Westerdam finally find a port, with Cambodia letting the cruise ship dock at Sihanoukville.

Finally brings an end to that long journey in the sea.

Great news! One bit of good news.

Lightsaber

kalvado · Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:49 pm

anshabhi wrote:
Going by how much I have heard about how contagious Coronavirus is, it's rather surprising that only about 10% of people who had contact with infected patients got it.

Is coronavirus curable in any way? 2.5% death rate sound not so bad. How many people have recovered so far?

Full recovery numbers are pretty low - but again it can be testing limitations; besides those who recovered may be kept in hospital as care workers already immune to the virus, so there is no incentive to declare them healthy. Besides, looks like illness itself is pretty long, 4+ weeks.
Treatment options, from what I can tell, depend on severity and include any anti-viral drug found to date (without much assurance it is effective), steroids and NSAID to reduce inflammation in lungs, antibiotics to prevent secondary infections, and whatever support is needed to survive acute stage - I suspect oxygen is at the top of the list.
Cytokine storm may require it own treatment - which may or (more likely) may not be available in large numbers.

frmrCapCadet · Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:17 pm

The death rate in Wuhan and area is also compounded by a near collapsing health system. Heart problems, cancers, accidents, other infections are going untreated or seriously under treated. Financial stress, lack of needed medicines, stress of confinement can also be life threatening.

maint123 · Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:59 pm

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... will-never

"Many families have struggled to arrange hospital treatment for their relatives, including this woman whose daughter was filmed banging a gong on her balcony shouting for help. Photo: WeiboMany families have struggled to arrange hospital treatment for their relatives, including this woman whose daughter was filmed banging a gong on her balcony shouting for help. Photo: Weibo
China / Society
Coronavirus: Why many deaths will never appear in official figures
Wuhan’s overburdened health workers are unable to confirm many of those who died were suffering from Covid-19, so they will not show up in official figures
The families of those who die at home are also denied the comfort of being able to make proper funeral arrangements
Topic |
Coronavirus outbreak
Phoebe Zhang
Retired Wuhan factory worker Wei Junlan had always been in good health, but around two weeks after developing the first signs of a cough and fever, the 63-year-old was dead from what doctors suspect was the new coronavirus.
But her death on January 21 will not show up in official statistics about the outbreak – her death certificate listed the cause only as “heavy pneumonia”."

Its frightening how many might actually have died in just 20 odd days. At the moment deaths are at 100 per day. The Chinese authorities have taken a 2.2 % deaths to infected figure and all statistics are matched to this ratio.

anshabhi · Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:46 pm

maint123 wrote:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050311/its-pneumonia-everybody-china-knows-about-many-deaths-will-never

"Many families have struggled to arrange hospital treatment for their relatives, including this woman whose daughter was filmed banging a gong on her balcony shouting for help. Photo: WeiboMany families have struggled to arrange hospital treatment for their relatives, including this woman whose daughter was filmed banging a gong on her balcony shouting for help. Photo: Weibo
China / Society
Coronavirus: Why many deaths will never appear in official figures
Wuhan’s overburdened health workers are unable to confirm many of those who died were suffering from Covid-19, so they will not show up in official figures
The families of those who die at home are also denied the comfort of being able to make proper funeral arrangements
Topic |
Coronavirus outbreak
Phoebe Zhang
Retired Wuhan factory worker Wei Junlan had always been in good health, but around two weeks after developing the first signs of a cough and fever, the 63-year-old was dead from what doctors suspect was the new coronavirus.
But her death on January 21 will not show up in official statistics about the outbreak – her death certificate listed the cause only as “heavy pneumonia”."

Its frightening how many might actually have died in just 20 odd days. At the moment deaths are at 100 per day. The Chinese authorities have taken a 2.2 % deaths to infected figure and all statistics are matched to this ratio.

This is so much like Chernobyl. Really sad for families who don't even get to arrange cremations for their relatives.

Clearly the death toll is much higher than officially reported.

He also questioned the accuracy of the official figures for Covid-19 deaths and infections.
“As they updated the list of deaths, I kept checking for her name, but she was never among them,” he said. “After a while, they stopped publishing individual names.”

Jouhou · Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:54 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
The death rate in Wuhan and area is also compounded by a near collapsing health system. Heart problems, cancers, accidents, other infections are going untreated or seriously under treated. Financial stress, lack of needed medicines, stress of confinement can also be life threatening.

Yeah I read early on a doctor died of a heart attack while treating patients, clearly having it happen in a hospital under normal circumstances would be beneficial but in this case who's gonna treat him?

I wonder if there's a way to get statistics on the amount of "viral pneumonia" deaths happening and a comparison number from the same period last year. Probably not, but this is the bureaucratic trick they're using to formally document deaths without reporting them in official numbers.

anshabhi wrote:
Going by how much I have heard about how contagious Coronavirus is, it's rather surprising that only about 10% of people who had contact with infected patients got it.

Is coronavirus curable in any way? 2.5% death rate sound not so bad. How many people have recovered so far?

China's official "recovered" numbers currently stand at 5066. It's a slow recovery because it seems to be a month long illness.

It's not bad if it spread as slowly as ebola. That's the same ballpark case fatality rate of the Spanish flu though, but it spreads faster than the flu and leaves those who survive stuck in the hospital longer than the flu. Basically it's as scary as the Spanish flu but not an actual flu virus so we're not actually equipped with proven vaccine and anti-viral tech to fight it... Just like the Spanish flu when it spread.

art · Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:30 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
The death rate in Wuhan and area is also compounded by a near collapsing health system. Heart problems, cancers, accidents, other infections are going untreated or seriously under treated.

I live in the UK, a place with an advanced, free health system. A bit like Heathrow, more or less all its capacity is being utilised 365 days a year. Sufferers of non-urgent conditions eg needing hip replacement surgery are placed on waiting lists so there is demand to fill all hospital beds all the time.

There are currently less than 150,000 hospital beds of all types available (includes mental illness and geriatric) for a population in excess of 60 million. Overall that means less than 2.5 beds per 1,000 people. If there were an epidemic of this virus here the UK would quickly find itself in the same situation as you describe in the Wuhan area of China.

Source: https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publicatio ... ed-numbers

I resent the lack of openness shown by the ruling communist party in China. The extreme reluctance of the PRC to tolerate freedom of information and their history of doctoring figures means that my country cannot ascertain transmissabiliy rates, predict the amount of time needed to treat sufferers etc

With luck there will only be small clusters of infection here.

PS I have just heard on the radio news here that there is now a possible case in London.

PPS Just heard the London case is confirmed as positive.

Waterbomber2 · Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:51 pm

kalvado wrote:
anshabhi wrote:
Going by how much I have heard about how contagious Coronavirus is, it's rather surprising that only about 10% of people who had contact with infected patients got it.

Is coronavirus curable in any way? 2.5% death rate sound not so bad. How many people have recovered so far?

Full recovery numbers are pretty low - but again it can be testing limitations; besides those who recovered may be kept in hospital as care workers already immune to the virus, so there is no incentive to declare them healthy. Besides, looks like illness itself is pretty long, 4+ weeks.
Treatment options, from what I can tell, depend on severity and include any anti-viral drug found to date (without much assurance it is effective), steroids and NSAID to reduce inflammation in lungs, antibiotics to prevent secondary infections, and whatever support is needed to survive acute stage - I suspect oxygen is at the top of the list.
Cytokine storm may require it own treatment - which may or (more likely) may not be available in large numbers.

Last time I heard, the nature of the virus is such that people who are cured do not become immune and are susceptible to a new infection if exposed again.
It looks like those who recover do so based on their innate immune system rather than the adaptive one, explaining why it takes so long to recover and that repeated exposure can overburden the immune system of even healthy young individuals such as Dr. Li.

Is it me or has China stopped reporting new cases and numbers of deaths?

Shanghai F1 Grand Prix postponed, MWC cancelled. Unheard of.

kalvado · Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:20 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
anshabhi wrote:
Going by how much I have heard about how contagious Coronavirus is, it's rather surprising that only about 10% of people who had contact with infected patients got it.

Is coronavirus curable in any way? 2.5% death rate sound not so bad. How many people have recovered so far?

Full recovery numbers are pretty low - but again it can be testing limitations; besides those who recovered may be kept in hospital as care workers already immune to the virus, so there is no incentive to declare them healthy. Besides, looks like illness itself is pretty long, 4+ weeks.
Treatment options, from what I can tell, depend on severity and include any anti-viral drug found to date (without much assurance it is effective), steroids and NSAID to reduce inflammation in lungs, antibiotics to prevent secondary infections, and whatever support is needed to survive acute stage - I suspect oxygen is at the top of the list.
Cytokine storm may require it own treatment - which may or (more likely) may not be available in large numbers.

Last time I heard, the nature of the virus is such that people who are cured do not become immune and are susceptible to a new infection if exposed again.
It looks like those who recover do so based on their innate immune system rather than the adaptive one, explaining why it takes so long to recover and that repeated exposure can overburden the immune system of even healthy young individuals such as Dr. Li.

Is it me or has China stopped reporting new cases and numbers of deaths?

Shanghai F1 Grand Prix postponed, MWC cancelled. Unheard of.

I do not see a good source for that statement. At best (worst?), it is "possible", "maybe", "immunity doesn't last long".
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3454321/ talks about an older type corona - and they see reinfection potential with much weaker symptoms in model animals.

lightsaber · Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:11 am

Total infected break 60,000.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... ssion=true

Hubei revises numbers back to prior reporting. The drop in cases wasn't real.

*Hubei, the Chinese province at the center of the coronavirus epidemic, reported 14,840 new cases as it revised the method for counting infections."

golfradio · Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:11 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Is it me or has China stopped reporting new cases and numbers of deaths?

Someone up thread posted a link (thanks OP), I have been following daily https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
From what I can see there is huge jump today in China, +14886 new cases and +245 deaths

zakuivcustom · Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:24 am

lightsaber wrote:
*Hubei, the Chinese province at the center of the coronavirus epidemic, reported 14,840 new cases as it revised the method for counting infections."

There's under-counting, then there is some bombshell number like this...

Makes one wonder how much under-counting was there for so many days.

lightsaber · Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:42 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
*Hubei, the Chinese province at the center of the coronavirus epidemic, reported 14,840 new cases as it revised the method for counting infections."

There's under-counting, then there is some bombshell number like this...

Makes one wonder how much under-counting was there for so many days.

I posted upthread that on 2/8 China revised the rules. I'm guessing the WHO made them go back to the old rules.

I still believe crematorium usage indicates a far higher death rate.

We've been discussing how a lack of test kits/labs is creating an inherent under reporting.

What is bad is that this virus:
1. Transmits asymptomatic (before the individual feels sick)
2. Is slow. Every revision is that a person can be infectious longer and longer before feeling sick.
3. After feeling sick, takes time before seeking medical care (earliest reported).
4. Take a long time to recover or die.

It is an incredibly slow illness.

Lightsaber

lightsaber · Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:48 am

CDC test kits not all working as expected.
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews. ... cna1135606

It seems some test kits shipped out are not giving conclusive results. It is better to find out early...

Lightsaber

Waterbomber2 · Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:12 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Forecast of Feb 2nd:
Confirmed cases are now increasing at a rate factor of 1.21, death rates at 1.17.
If the current factors is maintained, these are the forecasted numbers of cases in China alone:

February 7th 50.000 confirmed cases
February 14th 200.000 confirmed cases
February 24th 1.000.000 confirmed cases
February 27th 2.000.000 confirmed cases
February 29th 3.000.000 confirmed cases
March 7th 10.000.000 confirmed cases
March 10th 20.000.000 confirmed cases
March 19th 100.000.000 confirmed cases
March 31st 1 billion confirmed cases

Forecast of Feb 3rd:
New cases factor 1.18 (latest) and deaths factor kept at 1.17 (versus latest of 1.25)

February 7th 40.000 confirmed cases - 800 deaths
February 14th 125.000 confirmed cases - 2400 deaths
February 24th 650.000 confirmed cases - 11.000 deaths
February 27th 1.000.000 confirmed cases - 18.000 deaths
February 29th 1.500.000 confirmed cases - 25.000 deaths
March 7th 5.000.000 confirmed cases - 75.000 deaths
March 10th 8.000.000 confirmed cases - 120.000 deaths
March 19th 35.000.000 confirmed cases - 500.000 deaths
March 31st 250.000.000 confirmed cases - 3.000.000 deaths

Following the reporting of the latest numbers of confirmed cases and deaths, confirmed cases and deaths have evolved by the same factor as yesterday (resp. 118% and 117%), so I maintain yesterday's forecast.

Forecast as of February 4th:

February 4th 24.300 confirmed cases - 500 deaths
February 7th 40.000 confirmed cases - 800 deaths
February 14th 125.000 confirmed cases - 2400 deaths
February 24th 650.000 confirmed cases - 11.000 deaths
February 27th 1.000.000 confirmed cases - 18.000 deaths
February 29th 1.500.000 confirmed cases - 25.000 deaths
March 7th 5.000.000 confirmed cases - 75.000 deaths
March 10th 8.000.000 confirmed cases - 120.000 deaths
March 19th 35.000.000 confirmed cases - 500.000 deaths
March 31st 250.000.000 confirmed cases - 3.000.000 deaths

Numbers are growing at the same exponential pace despite the extended holidays and people in China limiting movements to essential only.

Forecast as of February 5th:
Factors adjusted to 116% for total confirmed cases and 115% for total deaths

February 4th Forecasted 24.300 confirmed cases - 500 deaths /// Actual 23.874 confirmed - 492 deaths
February 7th 37.000 confirmed cases - 750 deaths
February 14th 105.000 confirmed cases - 2000 deaths
February 24th 460.000 confirmed cases - 8.000 deaths
February 27th 725.000 confirmed cases - 12.250 deaths
February 29th 975.000 confirmed cases - 16.000 deaths
March 7th 2.750.000 confirmed cases - 43.000 deaths
March 10th 4.300.000 confirmed cases - 66.000 deaths
March 19th 16.000.000 confirmed cases - 230.000 deaths
March 31st 100.000.000 confirmed cases - 1.200.000 deaths

Factors to watch
-China returns to school/work on Monday 10th
-Health care system capacity already constrained in Hubei province, more and more doctors and nurses getting infected as well
-Japan has setup a quarantine ship to take Corona patients in Yokosuka with a capacity of 95 beds, have started carrying symptomatic passengers off the cruise ship to hospitals. Passengers who got off the cruise in Okinawa showing symptoms. Japan is a major risk point as many Chinese are still in the country, spread could happen much faster than in China due to population density.

Forecast as of February 5th:
Factors adjusted to 115% for total confirmed cases and 115% for total deaths

(February 4th Forecasted 24.300 confirmed cases - 500 deaths /// Actual 23.874 confirmed - 492 deaths)
February 7th 37.000 confirmed cases - 750 deaths
February 14th 100.000 confirmed cases - 2000 deaths
February 24th 400.000 confirmed cases - 8.000 deaths
February 27th 600.000 confirmed cases - 12.250 deaths
February 29th 800.000 confirmed cases - 16.000 deaths
March 7th 2.150.000 confirmed cases - 43.000 deaths
March 10th 3.300.000 confirmed cases - 66.000 deaths
March 19th 11.500.000 confirmed cases - 230.000 deaths
March 31st 61.000.000 confirmed cases - 1.200.000 deaths

The factors to watch:
-China returns to school/work on Monday 10th > >may be suspended. Schools closing until the end of February announced in Shanghai.
-Health care system capacity already constrained in Hubei province, more and more doctors and nurses getting infected as well. >> Beds being set up in event halls and gymnasiums
-Japan is a major risk point as many Chinese are still in the country, spread could happen much faster than in China due to population density.
-Diamond Princess cruise ship moored in Japan: 10 additional infections confirmed for 20 total infections.
-Risk from cruise ship in Hong Kong, as many passengers got off and are wandering around
-Flight ICN-LAS reportedly diverted to LAX due to Corona alarm
-New infections popping up right and left without prior links, people who haven't been in China recently
-Politicians in panic mode, Xi Jinping nowhere to be seen, Shinzo Abe tense

Forecast as of February 6th:
Factors adjusted to 115% for total confirmed cases and 113% for total deaths
The factor has been adjusted for deaths from 115%, total confirmed cases has not been adjusted as it is already the most conservative and is capped by the testing capabilities and not by the actual trend. The forecast will now be maintained until major changes in trend and serves as a best-case conservative scenario based on data from the past 6 days.

(February 4th Forecasted 24.300 confirmed cases - 500 deaths /// Actual 23.874 confirmed - 492 deaths)
February 7th 37.000 confirmed cases - 720 deaths
February 14th 100.000 confirmed cases - 1700 deaths
February 24th 400.000 confirmed cases - 5800 deaths
February 27th 600.000 confirmed cases - 8.300 deaths
February 29th 800.000 confirmed cases - 10.600 deaths
March 7th 2.150.000 confirmed cases - 25.000 deaths
March 10th 3.300.000 confirmed cases - 36.000 deaths
March 19th 11.500.000 confirmed cases - 108.000 deaths
March 31st 61.000.000 confirmed cases - 470.000 deaths

The factors to watch:
-China returns to school/work on Monday 10th > >may be suspended. Schools closing until the end of February announced in Shanghai.
-Still no decision on keeping factories in China closed on Monday.
-Health care system capacity already constrained in Hubei province, more and more doctors and nurses getting infected as well. Beds set up in event halls and gymnasiums are being occupied at a huge pace, too few health care workers to take care of patients, risk of further contagion at those locations.
-Still no global response. Trump savoring his victory, in the meanwhile the global supply chain is at risk of collapse.
-Japan is a major risk point as many Chinese are still in the country, spread could happen much faster than in China due to population density.> Total infections present in its borders quickly reaching 100, a majority from the Diamond Princess, the risk of spread to health workers and others is undeniable.
-Diamond Princess cruise ship moored in Japan: 10 additional infections confirmed for 20 total infections. > Now up to 61 total infections.
-Risk from cruise ship in Hong Kong, as many passengers got off and are wandering around > An additional cruise ship, the Westerdam has been denied mooring in Japan by order of PM Abe.
-New infections popping up right and left without prior links, people who haven't been in China recently
-Politicians in panic mode, Xi Jinping nowhere to be seen, Shinzo Abe tense

Based on more reliable earlier trend forecasts, We should hit a best-case scenario of 100.000 cases and 1700 deaths on February 14th.
I was wondering why the numbers for Feb 12th were not yet published, it's clear now that they were being revised.
I'm glad to see this shift in transparency, and while I was kind of hoping the isolating measures were having an effect, it's not a shocker as this is what we've been presuming in the past few days.

My prayers to our friends in China.

Got a TATL trip to SFO tomorrow via JFK, will report on loads and what's going on at port of entries.
Will be wearing my FFP3/P100 respirator all the way there, is a bit overdoing it given the current risk factors on this side of the planet, but it's not going to kill me to wear a mask either. Don't care what people think, time to get people used to the idea.

N757ST · Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:30 am

lightsaber wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
*Hubei, the Chinese province at the center of the coronavirus epidemic, reported 14,840 new cases as it revised the method for counting infections."

There's under-counting, then there is some bombshell number like this...

Makes one wonder how much under-counting was there for so many days.

I posted upthread that on 2/8 China revised the rules. I'm guessing the WHO made them go back to the old rules.

I still believe crematorium usage indicates a far higher death rate.

We've been discussing how a lack of test kits/labs is creating an inherent under reporting.

What is bad is that this virus:
1. Transmits asymptomatic (before the individual feels sick)
2. Is slow. Every revision is that a person can be infectious longer and longer before feeling sick.
3. After feeling sick, takes time before seeking medical care (earliest reported).
4. Take a long time to recover or die.

It is an incredibly slow illness.

Lightsaber

I thought Asymptotic transmission hasn’t been proven. The original study was flawed.

dtw2hyd · Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:39 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Will be wearing my FFP3/P100 respirator all the way there, is a bit overdoing it given the current risk factors on this side of the planet, but it's not going to kill me to wear a mask either. Don't care what people think, time to get people used to the idea.

Are N95 and R95 useless? We generally keep R95 handy for unforeseen in-flight fume events and N95 for general use.

maint123 · Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:43 am

From global times-
"More than 180 drama series, documentaries, and animations made their content royalty-free in China and will be aired on televisions to encourage people nationwide to resolutely fight the battle against the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID19) epidemic."

"Hubei Province reported 14,840 new cases (including 13,332 clinically diagnosed cases) of novel coronavirus pneumonia on Feb 12, with 242 new deaths and 802 cases of recovery. The total number of infections in the province climbed to 48,206, with 1,310 deaths and 3,441 cases of recovery."

Take all figures with a pinch of salt. Chinese are more busy with face saving than patient saving.

lightsaber · Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:07 am

N757ST wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:

There's under-counting, then there is some bombshell number like this...

Makes one wonder how much under-counting was there for so many days.

I posted upthread that on 2/8 China revised the rules. I'm guessing the WHO made them go back to the old rules.

I still believe crematorium usage indicates a far higher death rate.

We've been discussing how a lack of test kits/labs is creating an inherent under reporting.

What is bad is that this virus:
1. Transmits asymptomatic (before the individual feels sick)
2. Is slow. Every revision is that a person can be infectious longer and longer before feeling sick.
3. After feeling sick, takes time before seeking medical care (earliest reported).
4. Take a long time to recover or die.

It is an incredibly slow illness.

Lightsaber

I thought Asymptotic transmission hasn’t been proven. The original study was flawed.

You are correct, I missed that. Still lots of transmission when its only a cold stage.

Jouhou · Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:55 am

On man, the confirmed cases is up to 52,565 sudden!y. They're now including clinically diagnosed but not tested cases, so I guess that will confuse the numbers, but also that confirmed cases number does not appear to include those recovered or dead, from looking at https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia

yonahleung · Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:00 am

Jouhou wrote:
On man, the confirmed cases is up to 52,565 sudden!y. They're now including clinically diagnosed but not tested cases, so I guess that will confuse the numbers, but also that confirmed cases number does not appear to include those recovered or dead, from looking at https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia

The thing is that it now appears that the test kit they used is terribly unreliable, some chinese news report is saying that they are only able to pick up 30-50% of the infected patients and there was a case in Beijing that the patient only tested positive on the 4th test.

I guess that is the reason why they are basically abandoning it altogether.

Waterbomber2 · Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:02 am

Another 44 cases confirmed aboard the Diamond Princess.
Japan's Health Ministry took the decision to move elderly with health conditions who test negative for the virus to on-shore infrastructures to complete their quarantine period.

Japan's PM will announce emergency directives on Thursday.

The EU ministers are gathering in Brussels on Thursday.

Waterbomber2 · Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:11 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Will be wearing my FFP3/P100 respirator all the way there, is a bit overdoing it given the current risk factors on this side of the planet, but it's not going to kill me to wear a mask either. Don't care what people think, time to get people used to the idea.

Are N95 and R95 useless? We generally keep R95 handy for unforeseen in-flight fume events and N95 for general use.

Those are what you would need. I've stocked up a bit of masks, 3M 8833's, but also 3M 6200 with P3 R filters, enough for the family.
In Europe there is the FFP2 norm which requires 94% filtration and FFP3 norm which requires 98% filtration of particles.
3M suggests to use either of these for virusses.

https://www.muldi.nl/resize/49883300%20 ... eetpdf.pdf

I see that most N95 masks are sold out on Amazon.com (United States)

An online PPE supplier in Western Europe that I purchased masks from in the past days still had thousands of Euro's worth of stock in masks until yesterday, now it has all vanished.

1989worstyear · Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:28 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Another 44 cases confirmed aboard the Diamond Princess.
Japan's Health Ministry took the decision to move elderly with health conditions who test negative for the virus to on-shore infrastructures to complete their quarantine period.

Japan's PM will announce emergency directives on Thursday.

The EU ministers are gathering in Brussels on Thursday.

Is there an article regarding the emergency directives and EU meeting?

DIRECTFLT · Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:01 am

Hubei reports nearly 15,000 new COVID-19 cases with new method of diagnosis

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/as ... d-12429726

According to Raina McIntyre, head of biosecurity research at the Kirby Institute at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, the numbers could all be revised retrospectively from December, and it now depended on whether the more severely ill patients were confirmed by lab diagnoses and therefore included in the original numbers. If many of them were diagnosed using the newly included CT method and only now added to the total number of cases, then the death rate could rise.

Waterbomber2 · Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:39 am

1989worstyear wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Another 44 cases confirmed aboard the Diamond Princess.
Japan's Health Ministry took the decision to move elderly with health conditions who test negative for the virus to on-shore infrastructures to complete their quarantine period.

Japan's PM will announce emergency directives on Thursday.

The EU ministers are gathering in Brussels on Thursday.

Is there an article regarding the emergency directives and EU meeting?

EU meeting

Agenda highlights
An extraordinary Council will gather health ministers for an exchange of views on the Novel coronavirus outbreak. The Council is also expected to adopt conclusions. The meeting will start at 10.00 and is expected to finish around 13.00.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meet ... 020/02/13/

Japan emergency measures

A special task force headed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that will meet later Thursday is expected to discuss the emergency measures.

As part of the measures, Japan will subsidize domestic companies planning to invest in increased production of face masks as the country struggles with a shortage amid the spread of the new coronavirus, a government official said. The government plans to subsidize up to ¥30 million per production line, the official said.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/ ... kT-PGko80M

art · Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:51 pm

Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 04 3,235
Feb 05 3,887
Feb 06 3,694
Feb 07 3,143
Feb 08 3,399
Feb 09 2,656
Feb 10 3,062
Feb 11 2,478
Feb 12 2,015

New cases of confirmed and diagnosed infections

Feb 13 15,152

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 04 221,015
Feb 05 252,154
Feb 06 282,813
Feb 07 314,028
Feb 08 345,498
Feb 09 371,904
Feb 10 399,487
Feb 11 428,438
Feb 12 451,462
Feb 13 471,531

Change in last 2 days +4%

http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/13/c_76512.htm

frmrCapCadet · Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:42 pm

I think accurate disease statistics are a lot harder than many people appreciate. We have no hard data on how many people have or do carry the virus, nor those who had minor or moderate symptoms. We have some unreliable data on how many were seriously or critically ill, and perhaps good data on how many people have died.

The cruise ship disaster (thanks Japan) probably has enough data to be useful in the next epidemic.

Land based and the rest of the world seems to indicate that standard public health advisories and care will control the epidemic.

Study may show that China was utterly incompetent in this entire catastrophe.

lightsaber · Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:05 pm

It turns out quarantine of people returning was wise:

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.khou.com ... 0fdf553fa0

This was case #3 stopped in quarantine. If one was a super spreader, that would have been potentially bad.

frmrCapCadet wrote:
I think accurate disease statistics are a lot harder than many people appreciate. We have no hard data on how many people have or do carry the virus, nor those who had minor or moderate symptoms. We have some unreliable data on how many were seriously or critically ill, and perhaps good data on how many people have died.

The cruise ship disaster (thanks Japan) probably has enough data to be useful in the next epidemic.

Land based and the rest of the world seems to indicate that standard public health advisories and care will control the epidemic.

Study may show that China was utterly incompetent in this entire catastrophe.

It is very hard. I just objected (link in prior post) to China not including certain people. The new definition is better.

What concerns me is someone resistant (mild symptoms) who passes this on.

From above link:

"The CDC says there will likely be additional cases of the virus "in the coming days and weeks.""

I'm sad first death in Japan.

Lightsaber

JetBuddy · Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:34 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Will be wearing my FFP3/P100 respirator all the way there, is a bit overdoing it given the current risk factors on this side of the planet, but it's not going to kill me to wear a mask either. Don't care what people think, time to get people used to the idea.

Are N95 and R95 useless? We generally keep R95 handy for unforeseen in-flight fume events and N95 for general use.

Those are what you would need. I've stocked up a bit of masks, 3M 8833's, but also 3M 6200 with P3 R filters, enough for the family.
In Europe there is the FFP2 norm which requires 94% filtration and FFP3 norm which requires 98% filtration of particles.
3M suggests to use either of these for virusses.

https://www.muldi.nl/resize/49883300%20 ... eetpdf.pdf

I see that most N95 masks are sold out on Amazon.com (United States)

An online PPE supplier in Western Europe that I purchased masks from in the past days still had thousands of Euro's worth of stock in masks until yesterday, now it has all vanished.

I told my family to buy P3 or P100 rated masks as well. They've now stocked up on FFP3 masks from 3M. Supposidly they protect the wearer, but doesn't stop spread of the virus if already infected. The masks were bought in a carpentry/construction type of shop. So if people are having trouble finding them at pharmacies and similar, try shops that do construction materials, paint, and so on.

1989worstyear · Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:58 pm

Apparently the woman who died in Japan was an in-law of the taxi driver who was recently tested:

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020 ... ected.html

smolt · Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:55 pm

Someone knows why the US has given up disembarking about four hundred US people on board the boat then taking them back to the US? That would have been a great help to both side, US and Japan.

frmrCapCadet · Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:20 pm

smolt wrote:
Someone knows why the US has given up disembarking about four hundred US people on board the boat then taking them back to the US? That would have been a great help to both side, US and Japan.

Good question. I haven't seen any reports that we even tried to repatriate US citizens on the ship. Then again, haven't seen any evidence that the current administration follows the best scientific and medical advice.

lightsaber · Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:36 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
Apparently the woman who died in Japan was an in-law of the taxi driver who was recently tested:

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020 ... ected.html

I missed, from you link:

"The driver in his 70s was quoted as saying by a Tokyo metropolitan government official that he had not transported foreign visitors in the two weeks before he first showed symptoms on Jan. 29 and health authorities are seeking to determine how he got the virus."

That implies some new path (Japanese from Wuhan?)

I also noted one secondary infection to a doctor and one to a tourist bus driver. Interesting link, thank you.

Lightsaber

frmrCapCadet · Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:27 pm

We need to keep in mind that some disease transmissions are one-off. Most are demonstrated and need public health responses, but a certain few are and may remain mysterious, or in other words just bad luck.

It is unfortunate that China did not report parallel disease occurrences for at least several days. The new criteria Wuhan statistics have resulted in a lot more cases reported in the last day or so, but may not be statistically relevant.

smolt · Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:09 am

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=2020 ... onews-soci

This news says a patient in seventy years old whom the infected doctor saw in Wakayama prefecture has been newly confirmed
positive and diagnosed as pneumonic. He is in serious condition.

lightsaber · Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:14 am

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf
Scary numbers:
Ro before quarantine: 4.7 to 6.6
Quarantine reduced to 2.3 to 3 per Los Alamos National lab

Another link noted ACE2 is being linked to higher deaths. They tried to be racial, so I won't like, but what seemed more logical: "A professor at the University of South Carolina found that smokers have significantly higher levels of ACE2 than non-smokers ..."

China has way more smokers than typical:
https://sinosphere.blogs.nytimes.com/20 ... e=REGIWALL

My opinion, studies are showing smokers (more likely to be men in China) and it looks like those with high blood sugar aren't doing well either (just my opinion off a bunch of evidence) with Coronavirus.

Lightsaber

yonahleung · Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:40 am

smolt wrote:
https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20200214-00000037-kyodonews-soci

This news says a patient in seventy years old whom the infected doctor saw in Wakayama prefecture has been newly confirmed
positive and diagnosed as pneumonic. He is in serious condition.

I think they are saying that the doctor had not seen that patient at all, which is much more worrying.

Jouhou · Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:55 am

lightsaber wrote:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf
Scary numbers:
Ro before quarantine: 4.7 to 6.6
Quarantine reduced to 2.3 to 3 per Los Alamos National lab

Another link noted ACE2 is being linked to higher deaths. They tried to be racial, so I won't like, but what seemed more logical: "A professor at the University of South Carolina found that smokers have significantly higher levels of ACE2 than non-smokers ..."

China has way more smokers than typical:
https://sinosphere.blogs.nytimes.com/20 ... e=REGIWALL

My opinion, studies are showing smokers (more likely to be men in China) and it looks like those with high blood sugar aren't doing well either (just my opinion off a bunch of evidence) with Coronavirus.

Lightsaber

I think it was the study that put the case fatality rate at 1.4% actually assessed the risk factors for severe disease, and surprisingly smoking was not a huge risk factor, but hypertension is. ACE2 seems to be not too well understood at this point, but it definitely plays an essential role in regulating bodily functions.

[url]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renin–angiotensin_system[/url]

Huh, apparently something about that link makes it un-linkable. Usually properly URL-ing it fixes the dash and underscore issue.

The organs involved in the renin-angiotensin system explains some of the complications experienced and why diabetes and hypertension are such big risk factors. The exact mechanisms at work though are a little harder to figure out, especially since it seems the role ACE2 plays is not firmly established nor fully explored.

On a side note, I just read that the SARS S protein could bind to DC-SIGN giving it the ability to infect macrophages and dendritic cells. https://ashpublications.org/blood/artic ... oronavirus this shows that SARS could alter cytokine/chemokine production after infecting DCs.

The nCoV/SARS2 virus is likely causing illness by multiple mechanisms, just like SARS.

NIKV69 · Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:10 am

Wow I would have bet at least 10 were infected but these people were quite lucky!
https://ktla.com/2020/02/11/americans-f ... erve-base/

smolt · Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:31 am

smolt wrote:
https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20200214-00000037-kyodonews-soci

This news says a patient in seventy years old whom the infected doctor saw in Wakayama prefecture has been newly confirmed
positive and diagnosed as pneumonic. He is in serious condition.

Correction as Yonahleung pointed out

Sorry I have misunderstood;

It is likely that the doctor did not saw the patient.
It is just that the patient and the doctor have been
in the same hospital, which means group infection inside the hospital possibly is undergoing. The hospital has already stopped accepting newly coming patient.

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