1989worstyear wrote:

Waterbomber2 wrote:

The virus is very much uncontained in Japan.
An emergency task force officer who became infected on the DP working as a quarantine officer, travelled by Shinkansen back to Wakayama and seems to be the origin carrier for a total of 12 infections over there.
Now Wakayama is planning to test about 500 people for the virus, including patients at a hospital where doctors and nurses have been infected.

Tokyo recorded 3 additional infections, of whom 1 relative of a doctor.
Yokohama announced the infection of a taxi driver who has started showing symptoms 2 weeks ago and been sent home with cold medication by doctors on 2 occasions and is now fighting for his life, unable to speak and on artificial respiration. The amateurism of the Japanese medical professionals is becoming very apparent.
Until now, no apparent infection trail can be found for this patient.

The Japanese government is not hiding its concern and is starting to prep.

At this rate I see countries moving big to close the doors on Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong.
Some Korean hospitals have started denying patients with a recent travel history to Japan.
This would have huge consequences on JL/NH but travel demand for Europe-Japan would also be heavily impacted.


People in Hong Kong and Singapore have started stocking up. Toilet paper and other basic necessities such as rice and noodles are flying off the shelves.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHNER686Ngk

I can't find anything on the three additional infections in the news. Were these in the last couple days?

NYCVIE wrote:

1989worstyear wrote:

Waterbomber2 wrote:

The virus is very much uncontained in Japan.
An emergency task force officer who became infected on the DP working as a quarantine officer, travelled by Shinkansen back to Wakayama and seems to be the origin carrier for a total of 12 infections over there.
Now Wakayama is planning to test about 500 people for the virus, including patients at a hospital where doctors and nurses have been infected.

Tokyo recorded 3 additional infections, of whom 1 relative of a doctor.
Yokohama announced the infection of a taxi driver who has started showing symptoms 2 weeks ago and been sent home with cold medication by doctors on 2 occasions and is now fighting for his life, unable to speak and on artificial respiration. The amateurism of the Japanese medical professionals is becoming very apparent.
Until now, no apparent infection trail can be found for this patient.

The Japanese government is not hiding its concern and is starting to prep.

At this rate I see countries moving big to close the doors on Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong.
Some Korean hospitals have started denying patients with a recent travel history to Japan.
This would have huge consequences on JL/NH but travel demand for Europe-Japan would also be heavily impacted.


People in Hong Kong and Singapore have started stocking up. Toilet paper and other basic necessities such as rice and noodles are flying off the shelves.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHNER686Ngk

I can't find anything on the three additional infections in the news. Were these in the last couple days?

Me neither. Waterbomber2, please post sources to these additional cases. I can't see anything about the three cases nor anything about a doctor being the origin of 12 cases. What I did find is that there are a total of 12 cases in Western Japan. Could you also post sources for the testing of 500 people in Wakayama?

Yes, they are for yesterday Feb 18th.

Source for the 3 cases in Tokyo:
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202002 ... access_003
Source for the Yokohama case:
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202002 ... social_002

The 3 new Wakayama case, including a 30 year old nurse who has been on the DP:
The other two are a son of an infected doctor at the hospital, as well as a nurse in his 30s who worked as a member of the Disaster Medical Assistance Team on the virus-hit Diamond Princess cruise ship off Yokohama, Kanagawa Prefecture, near Tokyo.
https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj20200 ... virus.html


Concerning the Wakayama cluster, there was no apparent trail, but this newly identified individual who has been aboard the DP may be the connection.
That is not certain yet.

A few moments ago, Japan's cabinet secretary Suga has given a tense Q&A with the media on live TV, where media pushed hard on Japan's handling of the crisis aboard the Diamond Princess. Many questions went unanswered and were met with "we have done and are doing what is deemed best and necessary for the situation".
A few questions and answers:

Q If the measures taken by the government aboard the DP are sufficient, why are Korea and the U.S. giving returning DP passengers a mandatory 14-day quarantine?
A Each country is free to impose their own measures and we can't control that. We are imposing similar measures where justified.

Q There is talk about the existance of green zones and red zones aboard the DP, wherein the green zones are relatively safe and red zones have seen the virus spread more readily. Can you confirm that?
A I am not aware and can not confirm that.

Q Can you explain the criteria for the passengers who are being allowed to get off the ship
A Passengers who have been kept in their respective cabins for 14 days, whose temperature was monitored repeatedly and have tested negative to the PCR tests.

Source: Nihon TV (on-screen).

Tugger wrote:

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Singapore national development minister: "As many left Wuhan before the city was locked down for destinations worldwide, undetected spreading may be occurring, we may be at the early stages of a global pandemic."

Singapore is enforcing strict home quarantine regimes that when breached can result in severe punishment.

Source: CNN

Link?
Where are you seeing that? I just searched both the quote you provided and the "Singapore national development minister" and nothing pops up. And the Singapore thing is only for those that are returning to Singapore from mainland China.

Tugg

This is part of an interview on CNN, available on CNN International edition's website.
The rule is in effect on people arriving from China, but also 2 Singaporians who were on the Westerdam.

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/20 ... the-world/

Singapore tightens rules for entry from China
Singapore has more reported cases of the novel coronavirus than any country outside of China, including two new cases from Westerdam passengers. CNN's Cyril Vanier speaks with Lawrence Wong, the co-chair of the multi-ministry task force on the coronavirus for Singapore, to discuss new rules the country has put into place.Source: CNN



From minute 3, we get a rare glimpse of how worried governments in Asia are.

Note: the CNN article mentions 2 confirmed cases from the Westerdam for Singapore, but I think that this is an error in the reporting, I can't find this reported anywhere else for the moment.

Did anybody ask him why Japan allowed multiple flights from China? While stopping all of them may not have been necessary limiting most of them would have seemed prudent.

meecrob wrote:

Jouhou wrote:

Francoflier wrote:

You don't need to stick patients in a negative pressure isolation chamber for this virus for Pete's sake. Let's stop the Hollywood catastrophe movies scenarios for a second and get back to the real World here...

It remains a virus which, while contagious, is not showing signs of spreading out of control in any of the nations it got into outside of China. Infections within families seems relatively high, which is understandable as the propagation method is mostly through oral projections when coughing and touching your mucous membranes with your hands after touching contaminated surfaces. Healthcare professionals are obviously also more at risk. Otherwise, exceedingly few people around those who are sick get infected.
There are simple ways to largely reduce transmission, mostly basic hygiene habits like washing hands regularly, cleaning surfaces that are frequently touched and avoiding touching your mouth and nose with your hands. Do not share cutlery or phones (which are HUGE microbial hot spots).
The laws of gravity also apply to viruses. They do not fly or float in thin air.

Let's not forget that the virus took time to be identified. There were weeks after the initial outbreak (probably in December) during which the people of Wuhan were free to roam the planet as they pleased, and they very much did as the Chinese New Year holidays came along. Yet international propagation remains extremely low.

Let's stick to the data and keep in mind their relative significance...
The US estimates that over 22000 Americans die of the consequences of seasonal influenza every year, Europe estimates that anywhere between 15000 to 70000 die of it there.

This is not a freaking Zombie apocalypse. It's a slightly worse flu virus... if that.

Let's wash our hands, cough and sneeze in tissues and get on with our lives without trying to dramatize something that oughtn't be.
The greatest impact of this virus will be the economic chaos that will ensue the media/social media fueled craze it created. We humans are easily scared, not very smart in large groups and are not good at keeping things in rational perspective.

Dude, you sound like the people in this thread 2 weeks ago. It's a dangerous virus that needs to be contained if at all possible because it is both more contagious than the flu and deadlier. If we just let it spread it would far outpace the flu statistics. Quickly. And those that recover are still sick for a whole month. It's economically devastating even when it doesn't kill, and even if people didn't react to it just because it takes so many people out of commission for so long. The flu lasts about 5 days, if you're healthy you'll have a residual cough for a few days more. If you aren't healthy, you'll have a residual cough for up to a couple of weeks. It doesn't compare, but I do know how hard it is to take a whole week off from work abruptly because of the flu.

Why is it that you get to decide how others should think about this virus? We are all here to discuss something, but if we don't agree with you, we are talked down to. Your attitude is why the members of this board with insight such as those in healthcare, or even one who lived through SARS firsthand in HK or Toronto have stopped commenting. Everyone here is just trying to have a civil discussion, and it is being strangled by the fact that you have to drink Jouhou's brand of kool-aid or be told we don't know what we are talking about. Nobody is saying to "just let it spread" nobody is denying this virus is deadly and nobody is denying that we can do better in our efforts containing it. People are just observing hysteria and calling it out.

And I'm calling out complacency. There's a happy middle to find here. Complacency gets people killed, panic exacerbates damages. Calling it The flu is downplaying it and also inaccurate because the flu by definition is an influenza virus, which does not behave the same way, has approved anti-virals, and approved vaccines of various varieties.

You only have broad hygiene practices to fight this one, so use them. But also, in Democratic governments, they won't take action if people don't care. Be aware of the ways in which we are unprepared. Pharmacists are reporting people coming in and asking for "coronavirus" vaccines in pharmacy forums. That tells me there's a lot of people who aren't aware of what we can or can't do. And they aren't aware we aren't nearly as well prepared for a coronavirus as we are a pandemic flu virus.

As for whether closing borders counts as political "panic", it is but at the same time it's a gamble. You might do it too late and get both a damaged economy and sick people, making it all for nothing. There's also the chance you actually time it right and do it before infections explode domestically and slow down the spread of the disease. Whether we have achieved that remains to be seen, but if we did it was dumb luck. I'm addressing this issue not because you mentioned it but because other than prejudices and racism driven by fear this is actually the other aspect of what the WHO is vaguely referring to as a consequence of "panic". Basically we already did the single largest component of "panic" that was warned against. In most cases what we did does more harm than good but considering that unlike other pandemic scenarios we don't have an effective way of fighting it except by isolating the infected, it might in the end have been the only effective way to buy us time to figure out the characteristics of the virus, progress anti-viral research, and to progress vaccine development.

But also because many nations globally already hit that "panic" button, expect economic consequences. The WHO warned against it but it already happened. People worrying about whether our hospitals can handle a potential pandemic is not the "panic" we've been repeatedly warned against. The closing of borders, 2 week quarantines, cancellation of flights, turning away of ships at ports is exactly what kind of "panic" was considered damaging. And it already happened.

The only damaging panic left to stop is a mass paranoia of Asians, which happened with SARS which did not infect as many people or kill as many in a far longer time period.

On a positive note, today is the first day China has reported more people recovering than new infections. I hope those numbers are accurate and that this will be a trend.

Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 04 3,235
Feb 05 3,887
Feb 06 3,694
Feb 07 3,143
Feb 08 3,399
Feb 09 2,656
Feb 10 3,062
Feb 11 2,478
Feb 12 2,015

New cases of confirmed and diagnosed infections

Feb 13 15,152
Feb 14 05,090

New cases of confirmed and suspected infections

Feb 15 04,918
Feb 16 03,927
Feb 17 03,611
Feb 18 03,318
Feb 19 02,934

Change in last 2 days -11%

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 04 221,015
Feb 05 252,154
Feb 06 282,813
Feb 07 314,028
Feb 08 345,498
Feb 09 371,904
Feb 10 399,487
Feb 11 428,438
Feb 12 451,462
Feb 13 471,531
Feb 14 493,067
Feb 15 513,183
Feb 16 529,418
Feb 17 546,016
Feb 18 560,901
Feb 19 574,418

Change in last 2 days +2%

http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/19/c_76658.htm

Do you think it's about time to ban Japanese tourist visiting UK?

Cambodia seems to have done big screw up from what I read...total madness this.

Genuine Q. I am not a doctor or microbiologist but I heard someone saying strength of virus goes down the more it transmits? Is that correct? ( I am aware viruses mutate fast !)

Also, would usual end of viral season which is usually end of Feb bring any downward trend in this viral infection?

Why are Chinese officials not properly protecting themselves while arresting infected individuals? Some don't even have masks or gloves, and those who have masks, their nose is exposed.

theaviator380 wrote:

Genuine Q. I am not a doctor or microbiologist but I heard someone saying strength of virus goes down the more it transmits? Is that correct? ( I am aware viruses mutate fast !)

Also, would usual end of viral season which is usually end of Feb bring any downward trend in this viral infection?

I am not a microbiologist either but I think that it depends on how fast the virus can multiply and the amount of initial and continued exposure.
This Corona virus doesn't seem to multiply very fast initially, which is why people can remain asymptomatic for many days or have light symptoms. The body just doesn't detect it and react to it because it remains stealthy and multiplies in small numbers.

However, there is a flip side to it.
This slow initial multiplication delays the response, and the body reacts late and only realises the exponential threat once the virus is about to establish a stronghold and starts damaging bodily tissues.

So I don't think that the virus will mutate down into a milder version of itself along the infection path between individuals.
The flu virus dials down in the warmer seasons because of environmental factors of increasing humidity and temperatures, stronger immune systems in especially weaker persons, and different patterns in what people do.
Going into spring in the northern hemisphere will definitely help slow this Coronavirus down as it will strengthen immune systems and also help early detection as the flu can be ruled out more readily.
However, this is insufficient to slow the spread as can be seen in Singapore where it is warm and moist currently.

Waterbomber2 wrote:

However, this is insufficient to slow the spread as can be seen in Singapore where it is warm and moist currently.

Just a statistic...
Out of the current 84 confirmed cases:
23 cases in Singapore are of people that had been to Wuhan.
20 cases are of single cluster related to Grace Assembly of God Churches
4 cases, along with 2 cases from people of Wuhan, are of a cluster at the Life Church (Guess who started that cluster superspreading...)
9 cases are a cluster at Yong Thai Hang, a shop that apparently served mainly mainland tourists (No surprise who spread it there...)
5 cases at Seletar Aerospace Height construction site
3 cases at the Grand Hyatt Singapore meeting (Which is also responsible for a few other cases outside Singapore)

So that's 64 out of 84 cases that are limited to either somebody that had been to Wuhan, and the 5 giant clusters. Some of the spreads (i.e. the two churches) most likely occur during some worship in an indoor space, where any heat or moisture outside would do absolutely nothing.

That's not saying things are all rosy in Singapore (It's not). The govt ability to trace things down does impressed me, though.

Meanwhile...more cases are being confirmed in Japan: (Japanese source)
https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=2020 ... 7-yom-soci

And from what I understand, it seems like they're having spreads INSIDE multiple hospitals. That's NOT a good sign at all (It's what happened in Toronto during SARS, i.e. a patient from HK basically infected tons of people in Scarborough Grace Hospital; another clusters also occurred at North York Hospital).

The lack of information out of Wuhan is concerning. When news is good, you want people to talk. I wish for an independent assessment or independent journalists to be allowed to tour.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

The lack of information out of Wuhan is concerning. When news is good, you want people to talk. I wish for an independent assessment or independent journalists to be allowed to tour.

Lightsaber

They had 2 (IIRC) citizen journalists, Chen Qiushi and Feng Bin. Not surprisingly, with China being China, they disappeared.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... ks-telling

There were reports that Weibo posts are also being deleted quickly anyway. Just to show how China govt is still putting "maintaining stability" ahead of everything else.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/ ... 07605.html

It's in Iran and 2 have died.

zakuivcustom wrote:

As long as people are quarantine/contained, they post absolutely no risk to public at large.

Uncontained potential virus carriers are dangerous and is the thing that would cause community outbreaks that is seen in HK, Singapore, and Japan. Contained potential virus carrier post no risk in general except maybe to the medical professionals - but there are protocol there that can control the spread. The number of evacuees itself is not large enough to totally overwhelm the entire medical system of US.

If a charter plane goes and gets these people who have been exposed and some may have the virus, bring them back here unless all people on that bird are quarantined until we are sure they don't have it then there is a risk.

The Chinese government is unhappy with an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal concerning the virus.
Their reporters have been expelled from China.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51558310

NIKV69 wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

As long as people are quarantine/contained, they post absolutely no risk to public at large.

Uncontained potential virus carriers are dangerous and is the thing that would cause community outbreaks that is seen in HK, Singapore, and Japan. Contained potential virus carrier post no risk in general except maybe to the medical professionals - but there are protocol there that can control the spread. The number of evacuees itself is not large enough to totally overwhelm the entire medical system of US.

If a charter plane goes and gets these people who have been exposed and some may have the virus, bring them back here unless all people on that bird are quarantined until we are sure they don't have it then there is a risk.

I'm not sure what you meant by the second part of your statement but everyone who is being brought back is being quarantined for at least 14 days after arrival in the US whether they test positive or not.

NYCVIE wrote:

NIKV69 wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

As long as people are quarantine/contained, they post absolutely no risk to public at large.

Uncontained potential virus carriers are dangerous and is the thing that would cause community outbreaks that is seen in HK, Singapore, and Japan. Contained potential virus carrier post no risk in general except maybe to the medical professionals - but there are protocol there that can control the spread. The number of evacuees itself is not large enough to totally overwhelm the entire medical system of US.

If a charter plane goes and gets these people who have been exposed and some may have the virus, bring them back here unless all people on that bird are quarantined until we are sure they don't have it then there is a risk.

I'm not sure what you meant by the second part of your statement but everyone who is being brought back is being quarantined for at least 14 days after arrival in the US whether they test positive or not.

Those who are not scientifically inclined are always going to start with emotion and go from there

British nationals who may be 'rescued' by the government in a few days will be required to agree to 14 days quarantine on arrival in the UK to qualify for a seat on a repatriation flight. I am surprised that the Japanese government is allowing passengers with negative test results to leave and get on buses, trains etc Testing negative while on the ship does not mean you will not get infected in the time between testing and leaving the ship.

art wrote:

British nationals who may be 'rescued' by the government in a few days will be required to agree to 14 days quarantine on arrival in the UK to qualify for a seat on a repatriation flight. I am surprised that the Japanese government is allowing passengers with negative test results to leave and get on buses, trains etc Testing negative while on the ship does not mean you will not get infected after the test before you actually leave the ship.

Any incompetence in Tokyo on matters requiring expert consultation is no surprise at all - it’s all men over 60 who ‘know best’ calling the shots.

art wrote:

British nationals who may be 'rescued' by the government in a few days will be required to agree to 14 days quarantine on arrival in the UK to qualify for a seat on a repatriation flight. I am surprised that the Japanese government is allowing passengers with negative test results to leave and get on buses, trains etc Testing negative while on the ship does not mean you will not get infected after the test before you actually leave the ship.

There are also other issues with this.
-While the DP passengers may have gone past the 14 days quarantine period, the incubation period may be longer than expected.
-They may have gotten infected more recently, through the delivery of meals, through air ventilation, air getting in when the meals were delivered, through walking around on the top decks, on the terrace, etc...
-The test may not have been accurate, or the infection so recent that the test turns negative

Japan is screwing this up and everybody can see it.
Good for the US for quarantining these people for longer, I'm pretty sure some of these will turn up positive in time.

Japan is experiencing an outbreak, the government's measures are too weak, the handling of the DP crisis is very amateuristic, hospitals and health workers are totally unprepared and are sending infected people home with cold medication.
At a parliament hearing, 3 ministers have admitted to skipping the emergency meeting last week to attend new year's and other parties.

These are the infections in Japan:



Okinawa 2
Wakayama 12
Osaka 1
Kyoto 2
Nara 1
Mie 1
Aichi 8
Kanagawa 7
Tokyo 25
Chiba 4
Health ministry + quarantine officers 3
Returned on charter flights 14
Diamond Princess 621

Source NHK

Time to close schools, companies, shut down public transportation and ask everybody to stay home until the true extent can reveal itself in 2-3 weeks.
Sooner or later, they'd have to do it anyway because the situation is not under control.

Waterbomber2 wrote:

art wrote:

British nationals who may be 'rescued' by the government in a few days will be required to agree to 14 days quarantine on arrival in the UK to qualify for a seat on a repatriation flight. I am surprised that the Japanese government is allowing passengers with negative test results to leave and get on buses, trains etc Testing negative while on the ship does not mean you will not get infected after the test before you actually leave the ship.

There are also other issues with this.
-While the DP passengers may have gone past the 14 days quarantine period, the incubation period may be longer than expected.
-They may have gotten infected more recently, through the delivery of meals, through air ventilation, air getting in when the meals were delivered, through walking around on the top decks, on the terrace, etc...
-The test may not have been accurate, or the infection so recent that the test turns negative

Japan is screwing this up and everybody can see it.
Good for the US for quarantining these people for longer, I'm pretty sure some of these will turn up positive in time.

I'm pretty sure Japan is screwing up here. Being on a ship where you are isolated from others but confined with people who are infected for 14 days is anything but a guarantee that you will be free from the virus when you leave. What if 1% of those leaving develop the virus and are each in close contact with hundreds or even thousands of others? Just 10 infected passengers travelling in different directions using buses, trains, taxis, metro, cafes, bars etc could infect enough different people to turn this from a containable situation in Japan into something that cannot be contained.

Who is doing the risk assessment, I wonder? Anyway, too late now - if a big mistake has been made by the Japanese government, it cannot be undone.

they had the ship service staff taking care of sick passengers while they were waiting to be removed, instead of nurses and trained medical staff, then they had the same staff go back to the kitchen and prepare food and serve meals to the rest of the ship. so cross-contamination, a physician from the USA called the AG to tell them their practices were only going to spread the disease, but nobody listened to the AJ office. Maybe they were busy pardoning people. I am not sure why the physician called the AJ office. Maybe because he was being held against his will. anyway, the physician said the only way to get off the ship was to get the disease, his wife had got the disease and she was removed from the ship. He said he was stuck there until he got sick which would eventually happen. If all these stories are true, that are being reported by the free press, then these Cruise ships management teams should be sued

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Japan is experiencing an outbreak, the government's measures are too weak, the handling of the DP crisis is very amateuristic, hospitals and health workers are totally unprepared and are sending infected people home with cold medication.
At a parliament hearing, 3 ministers have admitted to skipping the emergency meeting last week to attend new year's and other parties.

These are the infections in Japan:



Okinawa 2
Wakayama 12
Osaka 1
Kyoto 2
Nara 1
Mie 1
Aichi 8
Kanagawa 7
Tokyo 25
Chiba 4
Health ministry + quarantine officers 3
Returned on charter flights 14
Diamond Princess 621

Source NHK

Time to close schools, companies, shut down public transportation and ask everybody to stay home until the true extent can reveal itself in 2-3 weeks.
Sooner or later, they'd have to do it anyway because the situation is not under control.

Sadly, I agree. 3 weeks is about right.

Or they can let this double every 6 days (it will double a few times anyway).

Japan has better tracking. There are 4 other countries that are in much more trouble. At least the USA is testing flu patients now.

The information from China doesn't match the response, not death of in prime of life doctors.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Japan is experiencing an outbreak, the government's measures are too weak, the handling of the DP crisis is very amateuristic, hospitals and health workers are totally unprepared and are sending infected people home with cold medication.
At a parliament hearing, 3 ministers have admitted to skipping the emergency meeting last week to attend new year's and other parties.

These are the infections in Japan:



Okinawa 2
Wakayama 12
Osaka 1
Kyoto 2
Nara 1
Mie 1
Aichi 8
Kanagawa 7
Tokyo 25
Chiba 4
Health ministry + quarantine officers 3
Returned on charter flights 14
Diamond Princess 621

Source NHK

Time to close schools, companies, shut down public transportation and ask everybody to stay home until the true extent can reveal itself in 2-3 weeks.
Sooner or later, they'd have to do it anyway because the situation is not under control.

Sadly, I agree. 3 weeks is about right.

Or they can let this double every 6 days (it will double a few times anyway).

Japan has better tracking. There are 4 other countries that are in much more trouble. At least the USA is testing flu patients now.

The information from China doesn't match the response, not death of in prime of life doctors.

Lightsaber

I see your point but simply not enough is known about the circumstances of the doctor’s death.

Even if there was no foul play, one cannot assume he was in ‘prime of his life’ just by age. He may have grown up in Wuhan, which would mean 25+ years of heavy pollution as opposed to older people there who had their formative years long before widespread rapid industrialization.

https://youtu.be/HFHogKzUwJE

I am really wondering these people-packed train you see everywhere every morning in Tokyo and around will help the virus spread quite easily.

The Japanese government called a press conference with some unnamed experts to let them say that the response on the DP was adequate, that every precaution has been taken, yada yada. All of that probably because they got scared of mounting criticism and possible lawsuits.
Why would they bother though, recent Japanese governments have been very good at winning lawsuits against them thanks to a biased judicial system, if you can call it a system at all.

In the meanwhile, a Kobe university professor who cisited the DP said that there is no structure, there is no compartimentation, there is no indication for safe and hot zones. Passengers have also sent video's of crews bringing meals to their cabins without wearing gloves or masks.

Why is the crew being allowed to produce the meals anyway?
Why don't they order in catering and let the crews have their own quarantine?

If they have so much trust in the way they handled this, they should send the Japanese ministers to greet those coming off the ship one by one.
At least the cambodian PM had the b*lls to do it, or should we call it idiocy?


I wonder though how Europe has been able to spare itself so well until now considering that there is no blanket ban like in the U.S.
People from China are free to travel to Europe individually if they so wish.

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6351723 (Japanese only)

More bad news from Diamond Princess, as two pax on board that were in their 80s had die from the nCoV.

What a mess...

EDIT: English version:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... infections

Meanwhile, over in South Korea, a superspreading cluster at a cult-like church raise the number of cases there to 82, just below Singapore for number of cases in a country/region outside mainland PRC.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east- ... -to-church

Reportedly an aged couple, ex passenger released yesterday told they required in vain to receive one more test before disembarkment to assure their being negative. Saying they had been tested nagetive ten days before but possibly they might have been infected after that.
But the official turned it down.

smolt wrote:

https://youtu.be/HFHogKzUwJE

I am really wondering these people-packed train you see everywhere every morning in Tokyo and around will help the virus spread quite easily.

I experienced this in Taiwan too, I think it's more endemic to areas with a high population density in East Asia in general, it's just that Japan gets all of the attention for it.

I'm feeling deeply skeptical about China's numbers reporting today now that they've suddenly decided to tighten the requirements for case reporting again. They're trying to change perception to mitigate damage to their economy, but unlike their own citizens the rest of the world is free to be skeptical of their inconsistent reporting requirements. That would not be considered a way to gain trust in a free society, I'm not sure what they're trying to do because most of the economic damage due to perception is coming from outside their country. Playing with numbers only works inside their own borders, you'd think they would know that.

Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 04 3,235
Feb 05 3,887
Feb 06 3,694
Feb 07 3,143
Feb 08 3,399
Feb 09 2,656
Feb 10 3,062
Feb 11 2,478
Feb 12 2,015

New cases of confirmed and diagnosed infections

Feb 13 15,152
Feb 14 05,090

New cases of confirmed and suspected infections

Feb 15 04,918
Feb 16 03,927
Feb 17 03,611
Feb 18 03,318
Feb 19 02,934
Feb 20 01,671

Change in last 2 days -43%

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 04 221,015
Feb 05 252,154
Feb 06 282,813
Feb 07 314,028
Feb 08 345,498
Feb 09 371,904
Feb 10 399,487
Feb 11 428,438
Feb 12 451,462
Feb 13 471,531
Feb 14 493,067
Feb 15 513,183
Feb 16 529,418
Feb 17 546,016
Feb 18 560,901
Feb 19 574,418
Feb 20 589,163

Change in last 2 days +3%

http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/20/c_76730.htm

Jouhou wrote:

I'm feeling deeply skeptical about China's numbers reporting today now that they've suddenly decided to tighten the requirements for case reporting again. They're trying to change perception to mitigate damage to their economy, but unlike their own citizens the rest of the world is free to be skeptical of their inconsistent reporting requirements. That would not be considered a way to gain trust in a free society, I'm not sure what they're trying to do because most of the economic damage due to perception is coming from outside their country. Playing with numbers only works inside their own borders, you'd think they would know that.

You can tell that China is going back into the good old China again, aka trying to fiddle the number just to make things look "under control".

Factories are gradually reopening in China also, and if there are any spreads we won't know until March.

smolt wrote:

Reportedly an aged couple, ex passenger released yesterday told they required in vain to receive one more test before disembarkment to assure their being negative. Saying they had been tested nagetive ten days before but possibly they might have been infected after that.
But the official turned it down.

In another word, Japan is still WAY underestimating how quickly the virus spread.

nCoV (CoVID-19...whatever)'s overall death rate doesn't matter when you have such an old population and numerous high density areas.

On a semi-related note...
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-co ... -a-quarter

Greta will be happy

Newly developed COVID-19 test reduces time to obtain result to under 2 hours:

As previously announced, the Primerdesign nCoV test is designed to detect only the 2019 strain of the virus, which the Directors believe differentiates it from a number of current tests which are less specific and could, therefore, react to other related viruses, potentially giving rise to a false diagnosis. The Primerdesign test can generate a result in less than two hours meaning that all samples can be screened quickly, which could help stop the unnecessary spread of this virus.

https://novacyt.com/2020/02/07/update-o ... irus-test/

art wrote:

Newly developed COVID-19 test reduces time to obtain result to under 2 hours:

As previously announced, the Primerdesign nCoV test is designed to detect only the 2019 strain of the virus, which the Directors believe differentiates it from a number of current tests which are less specific and could, therefore, react to other related viruses, potentially giving rise to a false diagnosis. The Primerdesign test can generate a result in less than two hours meaning that all samples can be screened quickly, which could help stop the unnecessary spread of this virus.

https://novacyt.com/2020/02/07/update-o ... irus-test/

CE mark approval - meaning nobody outside the company verified the test....

There's a live video on Youtube with continously updated figures:

https://youtu.be/qgylp3Td1Bw

One country that surprises me is Vietnam. 16 cases, and already 15 recovered. 0 deaths. Are they doing something differently, or are their stats off?

JetBuddy wrote:

There's a live video on Youtube with continously updated figures:

https://youtu.be/qgylp3Td1Bw

One country that surprises me is Vietnam. 16 cases, and already 15 recovered. 0 deaths. Are they doing something differently, or are their stats off?

Not enough statistics to account for a 1-2% death rate.

casinterest wrote:

JetBuddy wrote:

There's a live video on Youtube with continously updated figures:

https://youtu.be/qgylp3Td1Bw

One country that surprises me is Vietnam. 16 cases, and already 15 recovered. 0 deaths. Are they doing something differently, or are their stats off?

Not enough statistics to account for a 1-2% death rate.

Yes. But I'm wondering if they treat the patients differently. There are reports of anti-HIV and other anti-viral drugs working, especially in Thailand. Malaysia is also looking promising with 22 cases, 17 recovered, 0 deaths so far.

JetBuddy wrote:

There's a live video on Youtube with continously updated figures:

https://youtu.be/qgylp3Td1Bw

One country that surprises me is Vietnam. 16 cases, and already 15 recovered. 0 deaths. Are they doing something differently, or are their stats off?

Pretty up to date table: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Quite a few countries with optimistic statistics. Looks like this is something in CHina in general and Wuhan in particular that makes it worse (genetics? Water contamination? Lack of certain nutrient? Combination of those?)
I believe pretty much every antiviral drug was tried. Some should work... Efficiency is pretty low in test tubes, though.
Probably those drugs are in short supply in China, and probably administered to serious patients outside of China (and there are not that many of serious cases outside of Chna; 27 on a ship and 20 elsewhere; +11 deaths outside of China) under "nothing to loose" assumption.

And regarding the treatment:
https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/ana ... cov-drugs/

The National Medical Products Administration of China has approved the use of Favilavir, an anti-viral drug, as a treatment for coronavirus. The drug has reportedly shown efficacy in treating the disease with minimal side effects in a clinical trial involving 70 patients.

I cannot find any prior information on that drug, however. it in NOT and anti-HIV, definitely.

kalvado wrote:

JetBuddy wrote:

There's a live video on Youtube with continously updated figures:

https://youtu.be/qgylp3Td1Bw

One country that surprises me is Vietnam. 16 cases, and already 15 recovered. 0 deaths. Are they doing something differently, or are their stats off?

Pretty up to date table: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Quite a few countries with optimistic statistics. Looks like this is something in CHina in general and Wuhan in particular that makes it worse (genetics? Water contamination? Lack of certain nutrient? Combination of those?)
I believe pretty much every antiviral drug was tried. Some should work... Efficiency is pretty low in test tubes, though.
Probably those drugs are in short supply in China, and probably administered to serious patients outside of China (and there are not that many of serious cases outside of Chna; 27 on a ship and 20 elsewhere; +11 deaths outside of China) under "nothing to loose" assumption.

I guess one of the main issues in Wuhan is that the coronavirus overwhelmed the healthcare system. When people diagnosed with the nCov virus were told to go home (because they do not have enough hospital beds) and then infected other family members (and in one case, an entire family died).

Those of us who cannot read chinese might not realise how dire the situation is in Wuhan, where the virus just crashed the healthcare system with a large number of healthcare professionals infected. Once medical professionals are infected you basically are fending for yourselves. At that stage thinking about what antivirals to use is like dreaming of what to do after winning lottery, as you won't be able to find any anyway.

JetBuddy wrote:

casinterest wrote:

JetBuddy wrote:

There's a live video on Youtube with continously updated figures:

https://youtu.be/qgylp3Td1Bw

One country that surprises me is Vietnam. 16 cases, and already 15 recovered. 0 deaths. Are they doing something differently, or are their stats off?

Not enough statistics to account for a 1-2% death rate.

Yes. But I'm wondering if they treat the patients differently. There are reports of anti-HIV and other anti-viral drugs working, especially in Thailand. Malaysia is also looking promising with 22 cases, 17 recovered, 0 deaths so far.

No science to back things up, but my hunch is that perhaps the warmer climate in SE Asia helps with recovery? Singapore, for examples, has a lot more recovery (35/87) than Hong Kong (6/67).

Is China stable now, or they found the source ie., of the news leaks and plugged.

dtw2hyd wrote:

Is China stable now, or they found the source ie., of the news leaks and plugged.

Probably mostly the latter but the extremity of their "lock down"s is likely effective as well... but it's unsustainable.

Jouhou wrote:

dtw2hyd wrote:

Is China stable now, or they found the source ie., of the news leaks and plugged.

Probably mostly the latter but the extremity of their "lock down"s is likely effective as well... but it's unsustainable.

Frankly speaking, China has an extinguished outbreak of SARS in the resume. So they may be the ones to ask how things should be done.
California with their whooping cough history, on the other hand, may be an example of who has subprime expertise in the subject.

kalvado wrote:

Frankly speaking, China has an extinguished outbreak of SARS in the resume. So they may be the ones to ask how things should be done.
California with their whooping cough history, on the other hand, may be an example of who has subprime expertise in the subject.

There is an oppressive government running China. Suppressive, too - illustrated by the reaction to Dr Li trying to inform the medical connunity.about a new coronavirus. Sorry, any plaudits due for extinguishing the SARS outbreak are more than offset by doing exactly the wrong thing where COVID-19 is concerned. Hundreds of lives might have been saved had the dissemination of information not been prevented by the regime. I hold that despots are not the ones to ask how things should be done,

Japan has seen new cases today.
Some new cases popping up in Kanagawa, Hokkaido, Fukuoka.

Of the (13?) new cases, 2 are government officers who worked on and off the Diamond Princess.
One of them reportedly didn't even board the DP, he merely counted the infected getting off the ship, wearing a mask and gloves and staying at a safe distance of several meters...
Korea has an outbreak on their hands with reportedly 40 out of 1000 of a religious gathering already testing positive.

Source: Nihon TV

China has reportedly provided test kits to Japan in a bid to get the two nations closer and face the crisis together. The ambassador has also made a memorable speach "it's an international crisis that knows no borders and we must face it together".

Note: Do they even have enough for their own folks?

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202002 ... social_004

art wrote:

kalvado wrote:

Frankly speaking, China has an extinguished outbreak of SARS in the resume. So they may be the ones to ask how things should be done.
California with their whooping cough history, on the other hand, may be an example of who has subprime expertise in the subject.

There is an oppressive government running China. Suppressive, too - illustrated by the reaction to Dr Li trying to inform the medical connunity.about a new coronavirus. Sorry, any plaudits due for extinguishing the SARS outbreak are more than offset by doing exactly the wrong thing where COVID-19 is concerned. Hundreds of lives might have been saved had the dissemination of information not been prevented by the regime. I hold that despots are not the ones to ask how things should be done,

And do you think a different government would do a better job?
You don't buy my whooping cough example...
Since we're on airliners.net - how about a recent US example of MAX/MCAS fiasco? More than hundred of lives might have been saved had the dissemination of information not been prevented by the regime - FAA and Boeing.
Looking at timelines, Dr. Lee story may have little, if any, effect on how things went. Unlike MAX....