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DLFREEBIRD
Posts: 1542
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:07 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:50 pm

I just read that Trump wants to fly out the 34 people who tested positive for Coronavirus and are here on US soil. against recommendations.
What country in its right mind would take them? I don't know what news source to believe. wouldn't it be smarter just to keep them here under quarantine? while the quarantine method used by the ship was a joke I think quarantining them on a naval base is more logical than trying to fly them out

does anybody have more accurate news of what is going to be done with them?
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 6265
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:47 am

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
I just read that Trump wants to fly out the 34 people who tested positive for Coronavirus and are here on US soil.

I usually try to stay out of US politics discussions this forum is saturated with. However, with stories like this one, I truly hope the Deep State is in place and prevents the idiot from executing his insane ideas.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1352
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:51 am

Level 2 advisory for Japan and Korea:

Exercise Increased Caution due to an outbreak of COVID-19 (also known as the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2).

A novel (new) coronavirus disease, recently designated as COVID-19, is causing an outbreak of respiratory illness. The first cases of COVID-19 were reported in China in December 2019. On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization determined the rapidly spreading outbreak constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.

Many cases of COVID-19 have been associated with travel to or from mainland China or close contact with a travel-related case, but sustained community spread has been reported in Japan. Sustained community spread means that people in Japan have been infected with the virus, but how or where they became infected is not known, and the spread is ongoing. The CDC has issued a Level 2 Travel Health Notice.

Because older adults and those with chronic medical conditions may be at higher risk for severe disease, people in these groups should discuss travel with a healthcare provider and consider postponing nonessential travel.

Travelers should review and follow the Centers for Disease Control’s guidelines for the prevention of coronavirus if they decide to travel to Japan. If suspected to have Coronavirus in Japan, you may face travel delays, quarantine, and extremely expensive medical costs.

If you travel to Japan, you should:

Avoid contact with sick people.
Discuss travel to Japan with your healthcare provider. Older adults and travelers with underlying health issues may be at risk for more severe disease.
Avoid touching your eyes, nose, or mouth with unwashed hands
Clean your hands often by washing them with soap and water for at least 20 seconds or using an alcohol-based hand sanitizer that contains at 60%–95% alcohol. Soap and water should be used if hands are visibly dirty.
Enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive Alerts and make it easier to locate you in an emergency.
Follow the Department of State on Facebook and Twitter.
Review the Crime and Safety Report for Japan.
Prepare a contingency plan for emergency situations. Review the Traveler’s Checklist
See https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/novel-c ... -2019.html for additional guidance.


https://travel.state.gov/content/travel ... Japan.html

Anyone want to guess when Japan and South Korea are going to get level 3 / level 4 and see US borders closed?
I'm going to say March 1st for Level 3, March 10th for Level 4.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2932
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:02 am

L410Turbolet wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
I just read that Trump wants to fly out the 34 people who tested positive for Coronavirus and are here on US soil.

I usually try to stay out of US politics discussions this forum is saturated with. However, with stories like this one, I truly hope the Deep State is in place and prevents the idiot from executing his insane ideas.

Not sure what we're talking about; the only set of news under "coronavirus Trump" search talk about those tested positive for nCoV being flown from Japan to US against CDC advice and after Trump was told otherwise, on a same plane as nominally healthy people: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4 ... ons-report
It is very Trumpish to tweet "send them all back!" bullshit. But even most liberal government should carefully review actions of those ignoring basic quarantine measures without full CDC cooperation. Such actions can be very harmful in grand scheme of things.
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 6265
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:00 am

We're exactly 5 months away from the opening ceremony for the 2020 Olympics in Japan. Assuming things progress at the same pace as they have been in recent weeks, anyone wants to speculate at what point the games will be called off?
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 12703
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:51 am

L410Turbolet wrote:
We're exactly 5 months away from the opening ceremony for the 2020 Olympics in Japan. Assuming things progress at the same pace as they have been in recent weeks, anyone wants to speculate at what point the games will be called off?


Tokyo will pull out all the stops with IOC to avoid this because it’ll mean admitting their containment efforts were a failure, not to mention totally incompetent. Japanese are criticizing the government like wildfire on Twitter - this translated story indicates the government’s excuse for allowing untested DP inspectors to return to office work in Tokyo was over supervisors’ fear work would go uncompleted. As I stated in other posts, these kinds of cultural handicaps will be particularly severe in Japan’s case.

https://twitter.com/hikosaemon/status/1 ... 48896?s=21
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1352
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:34 am

A pettition calling for the resignation of the head of the WHO: https://www.change.org/p/united-nations ... or-general

Some reports that the Corona incubation period may be as long as 24 days, some even mentioning 4 weeks.

The infection map of Korea according to a twitter poster:

Image

China is training SWAT tactics:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1231340841853235201
 
kalvado
Posts: 2932
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:35 am

L410Turbolet wrote:
We're exactly 5 months away from the opening ceremony for the 2020 Olympics in Japan. Assuming things progress at the same pace as they have been in recent weeks, anyone wants to speculate at what point the games will be called off?

Tickets should go on sale "mid-may". That is a big thing. Until then, it will be wait and see. If epidemic is not mostly suppressed by then, some hard decision has to be taken. Otherwise, most of investment is already done, early cancellation wouldn't really help anyone.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2932
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:35 am

L410Turbolet wrote:
We're exactly 5 months away from the opening ceremony for the 2020 Olympics in Japan. Assuming things progress at the same pace as they have been in recent weeks, anyone wants to speculate at what point the games will be called off?

Tickets should go on sale "mid-may". That is a big thing. Until then, it will be wait and see. If epidemic is not mostly suppressed by then, some hard decision has to be taken. Otherwise, most of investment is already done, early cancellation wouldn't really help anyone.
 
DLFREEBIRD
Posts: 1542
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:07 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:37 am

kalvado wrote:
L410Turbolet wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
I just read that Trump wants to fly out the 34 people who tested positive for Coronavirus and are here on US soil.

I usually try to stay out of US politics discussions this forum is saturated with. However, with stories like this one, I truly hope the Deep State is in place and prevents the idiot from executing his insane ideas.

Not sure what we're talking about; the only set of news under "coronavirus Trump" search talk about those tested positive for nCoV being flown from Japan to US against CDC advice and after Trump was told otherwise, on a same plane as nominally healthy people: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4 ... ons-report
It is very Trumpish to tweet "send them all back!" bullshit. But even most liberal government should carefully review actions of those ignoring basic quarantine measures without full CDC cooperation. Such actions can be very harmful in grand scheme of things.



I know nobody is intentionally giving fake facts, but it sure seems to be more noticeable with coronavirus. I think the World Organization is calling it "infodemic
I will go to CDC website and WHO and see if I can figure out what's going on. ty
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 12703
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:41 am

kalvado wrote:
L410Turbolet wrote:
We're exactly 5 months away from the opening ceremony for the 2020 Olympics in Japan. Assuming things progress at the same pace as they have been in recent weeks, anyone wants to speculate at what point the games will be called off?

Tickets should go on sale "mid-may". That is a big thing. Until then, it will be wait and see. If epidemic is not mostly suppressed by then, some hard decision has to be taken. Otherwise, most of investment is already done, early cancellation wouldn't really help anyone.


Many tickets were already purchased in Japanese presales last autumn.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2489
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:41 am

Objectively, the mortality rate for Coronavirus infections is no higher than the mortality rate for regular influenza infections.
Perhaps it is time to admit you can’t control the spread and just advise people to be as hygienic as possible.
Shutting down the entire planet is not gonna work. It will just lead to mass unemployment, mass unrest, and a Greater Depression worse than the 2008-2009 crash.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html
Last edited by Dieuwer on Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
hoons90
Posts: 3688
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2001 10:15 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:43 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:


I'm not sure what kind of map that is, but it's definitely not a map that shows the no. of infections by region.

On the top right corner it says confirmed cases: 346 yet it shows 383 for Seoul and a much smaller number for Daegu and Gyeongbuk province, which is the epicentre of the Korean cluster.
Flown: 2L 7C 9E 9L AA AB AC AF AY AZ BA BR BX B6 CA CO CP CX DL EK EY JL KE KL LA LH LX MQ NW OZ PD RW SQ TG TP TR TS US WG WN WS XE XJ
 
reply1984
Posts: 60
Joined: Sun Jul 07, 2019 2:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:55 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Objectively, the mortality rate for Coronavirus infections is no higher than the mortality rate for regular influenza infections.
Perhaps it is time to admit you can’t control the spread and just advise people to be as hygienic as possible.
Shutting down the entire planet is not gonna work. It will just lead to mass unemployment, mass unrest, and a Greater Depression worse than the 2008-2009 crash.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html


Well...I hope you could watch some clips in the hospitals of Wuhan, the center of this epidemic. The so-called low mortality rate is due to strong and effective medical intervention, instead of the weakness of the virus itself.
 
yonahleung
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:55 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:02 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Objectively, the mortality rate for Coronavirus infections is no higher than the mortality rate for regular influenza infections.
Perhaps it is time to admit you can’t control the spread and just advise people to be as hygienic as possible.
Shutting down the entire planet is not gonna work. It will just lead to mass unemployment, mass unrest, and a Greater Depression worse than the 2008-2009 crash.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html

Excellent, don't get any mask for your family please and keep doing business in China. So we can have business as usual.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2489
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:04 am

yonahleung wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Objectively, the mortality rate for Coronavirus infections is no higher than the mortality rate for regular influenza infections.
Perhaps it is time to admit you can’t control the spread and just advise people to be as hygienic as possible.
Shutting down the entire planet is not gonna work. It will just lead to mass unemployment, mass unrest, and a Greater Depression worse than the 2008-2009 crash.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html

Excellent, don't get any mask for your family please and keep doing business in China. So we can have business as usual.


Simple masks won’t protect much. The virus is much smaller than the porosity of the mask.

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-c ... ive-2020-1
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 40-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext
 
deltaownsall
Posts: 1092
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2001 3:25 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:12 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Objectively, the mortality rate for Coronavirus infections is no higher than the mortality rate for regular influenza infections.
Perhaps it is time to admit you can’t control the spread and just advise people to be as hygienic as possible.
Shutting down the entire planet is not gonna work. It will just lead to mass unemployment, mass unrest, and a Greater Depression worse than the 2008-2009 crash.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html


Did you even read the article that you linked? Yikes

“In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. That's much higher than the death rate linked to flu, which is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times.“
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2489
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:17 am

deltaownsall wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Objectively, the mortality rate for Coronavirus infections is no higher than the mortality rate for regular influenza infections.
Perhaps it is time to admit you can’t control the spread and just advise people to be as hygienic as possible.
Shutting down the entire planet is not gonna work. It will just lead to mass unemployment, mass unrest, and a Greater Depression worse than the 2008-2009 crash.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html


Did you even read the article that you linked? Yikes

“In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. That's much higher than the death rate linked to flu, which is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times.“


Sorry, you are right.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:49 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Higher temperature is known to shorten survival time of other coronaviruses. There are a few papers linking SARS infections with weather conditions (temperature, humidity, wind). nCoV is not yet analyzed, but trend is likely the same. Trump's saying it will go away in spring does have some merit, after all.


It would be nice to see some studies. New Delhi, India being one of the most polluted cities in the world, virus cannot get through pollution particles.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Don't be fooled by the reported numbers, China has practically stopped reporting numbers.


That is also my suspicion. They achieved total control on reporting and social media, and the internet moved on to Japan, Iran, South Korea, and Italy.



The influenza virus has been studied for the potential causes of it's seasonality. One is that it stays suspended in dry air for longer. Another is that natural UV radiation inactivates viruses. A newer finding is that there's certain immune peptides in our nasal cavities that don't function nearly as well when we're breathing in cold air. There's multiple known factors that influence the seasonality of viruses...

That said, I have a feeling this will slow down for the summer but it's too widespread to fizzle out.

When I realized that for Iran to have 6 deaths suddenly, which means it's been circulating undetected for a month there because it takes so long for someone to die from the infection, I lost hope that this can be contained. Countries that have close ties to Iran need to be scrutinizing their populations right now, because they're at where China was a month ago.

I had really hoped this might fall short of being a pandemic and be contained. A pandemic appears to be inevitable in our immediate future.
情報
 
yonahleung
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:55 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:11 am

Dieuwer wrote:
yonahleung wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Objectively, the mortality rate for Coronavirus infections is no higher than the mortality rate for regular influenza infections.
Perhaps it is time to admit you can’t control the spread and just advise people to be as hygienic as possible.
Shutting down the entire planet is not gonna work. It will just lead to mass unemployment, mass unrest, and a Greater Depression worse than the 2008-2009 crash.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html

Excellent, don't get any mask for your family please and keep doing business in China. So we can have business as usual.


Simple masks won’t protect much. The virus is much smaller than the porosity of the mask.

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-c ... ive-2020-1
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 40-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext

That's why I also use eye shields when I go out now. Eye shields can be washed and re-used and a good one from 3M costs only 2-3USD.
 
bennett123
Posts: 10052
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:19 am

In Italy, not sure how much of the reaction is medical and how much is political.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8456
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:45 pm

Jouhou wrote:
When I realized that for Iran to have 6 deaths suddenly, which means it's been circulating undetected for a month there because it takes so long for someone to die from the infection, I lost hope that this can be contained. Countries that have close ties to Iran need to be scrutinizing their populations right now, because they're at where China was a month ago.


Any reasonable theories on how it reached Iran? It has business and military?? relationship with China. Migrating birds? Also, I read it is a different strain?

On the home front, I still don't like the gradual approach of containment. If there is an outbreak in Japan and Korea, first a Level 2 warning, sit on it for a few weeks and increase it to Level 1. I know we live in a connected world and business is most important but doesn't help to contain.
All posts are just opinions.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:16 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
When I realized that for Iran to have 6 deaths suddenly, which means it's been circulating undetected for a month there because it takes so long for someone to die from the infection, I lost hope that this can be contained. Countries that have close ties to Iran need to be scrutinizing their populations right now, because they're at where China was a month ago.


Any reasonable theories on how it reached Iran? It has business and military?? relationship with China. Migrating birds? Also, I read it is a different strain?

On the home front, I still don't like the gradual approach of containment. If there is an outbreak in Japan and Korea, first a Level 2 warning, sit on it for a few weeks and increase it to Level 1. I know we live in a connected world and business is most important but doesn't help to contain.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN20H0AT

8 dead now, and this says they think it's a merchant who traveled to China.
情報
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:30 pm

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
I just read that Trump wants to fly out the 34 people who tested positive for Coronavirus and are here on US soil. against recommendations.
What country in its right mind would take them? I don't know what news source to believe. wouldn't it be smarter just to keep them here under quarantine? while the quarantine method used by the ship was a joke I think quarantining them on a naval base is more logical than trying to fly them out

does anybody have more accurate news of what is going to be done with them?


Seems kind of stupid to move the infected more than necessary, that would add MORE risk for others to get infected.
情報
 
joeblow10
Posts: 463
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:43 pm

Jouhou wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Higher temperature is known to shorten survival time of other coronaviruses. There are a few papers linking SARS infections with weather conditions (temperature, humidity, wind). nCoV is not yet analyzed, but trend is likely the same. Trump's saying it will go away in spring does have some merit, after all.


It would be nice to see some studies. New Delhi, India being one of the most polluted cities in the world, virus cannot get through pollution particles.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Don't be fooled by the reported numbers, China has practically stopped reporting numbers.


That is also my suspicion. They achieved total control on reporting and social media, and the internet moved on to Japan, Iran, South Korea, and Italy.



The influenza virus has been studied for the potential causes of it's seasonality. One is that it stays suspended in dry air for longer. Another is that natural UV radiation inactivates viruses. A newer finding is that there's certain immune peptides in our nasal cavities that don't function nearly as well when we're breathing in cold air. There's multiple known factors that influence the seasonality of viruses...

That said, I have a feeling this will slow down for the summer but it's too widespread to fizzle out.

When I realized that for Iran to have 6 deaths suddenly, which means it's been circulating undetected for a month there because it takes so long for someone to die from the infection, I lost hope that this can be contained. Countries that have close ties to Iran need to be scrutinizing their populations right now, because they're at where China was a month ago.

I had really hoped this might fall short of being a pandemic and be contained. A pandemic appears to be inevitable in our immediate future.


Unfortunately starting to agree. It seems this thing will be too hard to contain. Really is almost like something out of a sci-fi novel. Incubation up to 24 days (!) and apparently the ability to spread it while asymptotic in some cases - plus it can look no different than a cold or flu for most individuals. Combine those two things and I don’t see how this can possibly be contained unless every country implements some draconian measures almost immediately.

The real concern for me, and the obvious reason it’s been so deadly in China, is the lack of hospital beds and care for the infected. There is no doubt that same problem exists in the rest of the world - and if we don’t start preparing soon, it could be a very ugly situation. Really is Spanish Flu part 2
 
art
Posts: 3574
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:44 pm

Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 04 3,235
Feb 05 3,887
Feb 06 3,694
Feb 07 3,143
Feb 08 3,399
Feb 09 2,656
Feb 10 3,062
Feb 11 2,478
Feb 12 2,015

New cases of confirmed and diagnosed infections

Feb 13 15,152
Feb 14 05,090

New cases of confirmed and suspected infections

Feb 15 04,918
Feb 16 03,927
Feb 17 03,611
Feb 18 03,318
Feb 19 02,934
Feb 20 01,671
Feb 21 02,503
Feb 22 01,758
Feb 23 01,530

Change in last 2 days -13%

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 04 221,015
Feb 05 252,154
Feb 06 282,813
Feb 07 314,028
Feb 08 345,498
Feb 09 371,904
Feb 10 399,487
Feb 11 428,438
Feb 12 451,462
Feb 13 471,531
Feb 14 493,067
Feb 15 513,183
Feb 16 529,418
Feb 17 546,016
Feb 18 560,901
Feb 19 574,418
Feb 20 589,163
Feb 21 606,037
Feb 22 618,915
Feb 23 628,517


Change in last 2 days +2%

http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/23/c_76779.htm
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 2:12 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

It would be nice to see some studies. New Delhi, India being one of the most polluted cities in the world, virus cannot get through pollution particles.



That is also my suspicion. They achieved total control on reporting and social media, and the internet moved on to Japan, Iran, South Korea, and Italy.



The influenza virus has been studied for the potential causes of it's seasonality. One is that it stays suspended in dry air for longer. Another is that natural UV radiation inactivates viruses. A newer finding is that there's certain immune peptides in our nasal cavities that don't function nearly as well when we're breathing in cold air. There's multiple known factors that influence the seasonality of viruses...

That said, I have a feeling this will slow down for the summer but it's too widespread to fizzle out.

When I realized that for Iran to have 6 deaths suddenly, which means it's been circulating undetected for a month there because it takes so long for someone to die from the infection, I lost hope that this can be contained. Countries that have close ties to Iran need to be scrutinizing their populations right now, because they're at where China was a month ago.

I had really hoped this might fall short of being a pandemic and be contained. A pandemic appears to be inevitable in our immediate future.


Unfortunately starting to agree. It seems this thing will be too hard to contain. Really is almost like something out of a sci-fi novel. Incubation up to 24 days (!) and apparently the ability to spread it while asymptotic in some cases - plus it can look no different than a cold or flu for most individuals. Combine those two things and I don’t see how this can possibly be contained unless every country implements some draconian measures almost immediately.

The real concern for me, and the obvious reason it’s been so deadly in China, is the lack of hospital beds and care for the infected. There is no doubt that same problem exists in the rest of the world - and if we don’t start preparing soon, it could be a very ugly situation. Really is Spanish Flu part 2



https://virologydownunder.com/past-time ... epare-now/

This is the kind of thing we'd need a vaccine to truly contain. Right now all were doing is desperate attempts to slow it down, it's kind of shocking how fast it's moving with the draconian measures that have been implemented.
情報
 
NYCVIE
Posts: 327
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2016 11:01 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:25 pm

Jouhou wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:


The influenza virus has been studied for the potential causes of it's seasonality. One is that it stays suspended in dry air for longer. Another is that natural UV radiation inactivates viruses. A newer finding is that there's certain immune peptides in our nasal cavities that don't function nearly as well when we're breathing in cold air. There's multiple known factors that influence the seasonality of viruses...

That said, I have a feeling this will slow down for the summer but it's too widespread to fizzle out.

When I realized that for Iran to have 6 deaths suddenly, which means it's been circulating undetected for a month there because it takes so long for someone to die from the infection, I lost hope that this can be contained. Countries that have close ties to Iran need to be scrutinizing their populations right now, because they're at where China was a month ago.

I had really hoped this might fall short of being a pandemic and be contained. A pandemic appears to be inevitable in our immediate future.


Unfortunately starting to agree. It seems this thing will be too hard to contain. Really is almost like something out of a sci-fi novel. Incubation up to 24 days (!) and apparently the ability to spread it while asymptotic in some cases - plus it can look no different than a cold or flu for most individuals. Combine those two things and I don’t see how this can possibly be contained unless every country implements some draconian measures almost immediately.

The real concern for me, and the obvious reason it’s been so deadly in China, is the lack of hospital beds and care for the infected. There is no doubt that same problem exists in the rest of the world - and if we don’t start preparing soon, it could be a very ugly situation. Really is Spanish Flu part 2



https://virologydownunder.com/past-time ... epare-now/

This is the kind of thing we'd need a vaccine to truly contain. Right now all were doing is desperate attempts to slow it down, it's kind of shocking how fast it's moving with the draconian measures that have been implemented.


I would say its actually moving slow thanks to those measures. China is a country of billions with a population that likes to travel. The people in the locked down areas alone total around 60 million. So for the vast majority of the unfortunate fatalities to be in China (in Hubei at that) and for the majority of the foreign cases traced back to China in some way I would say is kind of a miracle. In some way, although the virus is clearly spreading, these measures have helped to avoid what could have been MUCH worse and much faster.

I would say the two areas of worry to look at right now are Japan and Iran. Japan because it seems like officials there are unclear on how exactly to handle this and Iran because we haven't yet been able to track back the clusters. Plus for 6 people to pass away in basically a week means that they must have had the virus for a while and Iran just kept it quiet. South Korea clearly has a lot of cases but it seems like they are for the most part in two clusters and officials are doing a good job of testing and quarantining.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4416
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:50 pm

A metric I have not seen, and it seems useful, is a country by country break down

Cases in which the person had traveled to
1.Wuhan
2.China
3.Contracted the virus from a person above
4.Contracted the virus from a #3 person
If all such persons observed appropriate isolation/quarantine cases subsequent to those infections could be called outbreak infections.Those are the number which need to be worried about. In the US are there any?
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Jouhou
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Posts: 2539
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:12 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
A metric I have not seen, and it seems useful, is a country by country break down

Cases in which the person had traveled to
1.Wuhan
2.China
3.Contracted the virus from a person above
4.Contracted the virus from a #3 person
If all such persons observed appropriate isolation/quarantine cases subsequent to those infections could be called outbreak infections.Those are the number which need to be worried about. In the US are there any?


Are you asking if there's been person to person transmission that occurred in the US? Yes, but only 2 people and both were spouses of cases that has been to China.

The problem is that models are showing we've only caught 25% of cases entering the U.S. And the effects of that other 75% won't be noticed for another couple of weeks, because the progression of the disease is so slow. Severe cases don't tend to show up until week 3 of the illness (and I'm not including the highly variable incubation period). They have mild symptoms that might be hard to discern from a cold up until that sudden worsening.

This is why public health authorities are warning we need to mentally prepare ourselves for the worst. Employers should be coming up with contingency plans to mitigate economic fallout.
情報
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 12703
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:17 pm

NYCVIE wrote:
Japan because it seems like officials there are unclear on how exactly to handle this


As someone who lived there quite awhile, you are being highly charitable. They have absolutely no idea what they're doing and cabinet officials are being obstinate when challenged by reporters. The vast majority of politicians in Japan graduated from the same three elite Tokyo universities and most have never been privately employed in a meaningful capacity. The government is advising people with cold symptoms to stay home and 'telework' - but that suggestion in of itself is completely out of touch. Workaday Japanese are indoctrinated from grammar school to never be late or absent even when sick, and in work the social pressure to avoid causing 'meiwaku' is even stronger. A strong PR campaign is needed to reprogram this thinking, even temporarily, but they just give a press conference and repeat the same 'we're doing our best' mantra on the daily.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
NIKV69
Posts: 13696
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:38 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
A metric I have not seen, and it seems useful, is a country by country break down

Cases in which the person had traveled to
1.Wuhan
2.China
3.Contracted the virus from a person above
4.Contracted the virus from a #3 person
If all such persons observed appropriate isolation/quarantine cases subsequent to those infections could be called outbreak infections.Those are the number which need to be worried about. In the US are there any?


How can you know if it's accurate?
I am the Googlizer!!!
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:40 pm

Jouhou - you are listing the worst possible case, that needs to be kept in mind. I am interested in what the most probable case is. At this point I think the severe limitations on travel, monitoring of contacts, isolation of those contacts could be working. Italy and South Korea may be next on the US list for travel limitations. Not a pleasant thing to think about.
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JetBuddy
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:42 pm

I keep hearing from different sources that China has given up on testing everyone and delivering updated numbers. China is clearly worried about the financial effect going forward. If the real numbers were as low as they've reported the last few days, why are they planning on building 14 new "hospitals" like the leaking shipping container structure they built in 10 days?

I've also seen videos from Iran on Snapchat. Of sick kids in hospitals, struggling to breathe.. and with no O2 tube. Just laying there, dying. Is Iran really so incapable of delivering appropriate health care?
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 12703
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:47 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
I keep hearing from different sources that China has given up on testing everyone and delivering updated numbers. China is clearly worried about the financial effect going forward. If the real numbers were as low as they've reported the last few days, why are they planning on building 14 new "hospitals" like the leaking shipping container structure they built in 10 days?

I've also seen videos from Iran on Snapchat. Of sick kids in hospitals, struggling to breathe.. and with no O2 tube. Just laying there, dying. Is Iran really so incapable of delivering appropriate health care?


Of course they are - under sanction for years, they have had great difficulty procuring medical equipment from suppliers.

https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/iran ... 33634.html

The HRW report claims that although humanitarian trade is exempt from US sanctions, "broad restrictions on financial transactions, coupled with aggressive rhetoric from US officials, have drastically constrained the ability of Iranian entities to finance humanitarian imports, including vital medicines and medical equipment".

By listing Iran's central bank as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist on September 20, the White House hampered the entity that provides foreign currency for anyone bringing medical goods into Iran.

US sanctions are deterring banks and foreign companies from engaging in any kind of trade with the country. According to the report, this leaves "Iranians with rare or complicated diseases unable to get the medicine and treatment they require," said Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East director at Human Rights Watch.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2578
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:35 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
I keep hearing from different sources that China has given up on testing everyone and delivering updated numbers. China is clearly worried about the financial effect going forward. If the real numbers were as low as they've reported the last few days, why are they planning on building 14 new "hospitals" like the leaking shipping container structure they built in 10 days?

I've also seen videos from Iran on Snapchat. Of sick kids in hospitals, struggling to breathe.. and with no O2 tube. Just laying there, dying. Is Iran really so incapable of delivering appropriate health care?


Of course they are - under sanction for years, they have had great difficulty procuring medical equipment from suppliers.

https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/iran ... 33634.html

The HRW report claims that although humanitarian trade is exempt from US sanctions, "broad restrictions on financial transactions, coupled with aggressive rhetoric from US officials, have drastically constrained the ability of Iranian entities to finance humanitarian imports, including vital medicines and medical equipment".

By listing Iran's central bank as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist on September 20, the White House hampered the entity that provides foreign currency for anyone bringing medical goods into Iran.

US sanctions are deterring banks and foreign companies from engaging in any kind of trade with the country. According to the report, this leaves "Iranians with rare or complicated diseases unable to get the medicine and treatment they require," said Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East director at Human Rights Watch.


Never miss an opportunity to blame America, of course. It's not like the Iranian regime themselves have anything to do with this...? We can expect Al Jazeera to be completely impartial in this matter. Right?

I don't want to have a political discussion about Iran, but you jumped on it. Iran can afford financing terror in the entire region, waging war in Syria and infecting the Iraqi political system. They can also afford relatively advanced cruise missiles, and use them on Saudi oil refineries.

But not O2 bottles for sick children struggling to breathe. And it's all America's fault. Sure.
 
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readytotaxi
Posts: 7528
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:38 pm

Now here in the UK Four cruise ship passengers flown to Britain on Saturday have tested positive for coronavirus, bringing the total number of cases in the UK to 13.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51606368

Now here is the worrying part. "The Department of Health said a "full infectious disease risk assessment" was done before Saturday's repatriation flight from Japan, adding that no-one who boarded the flight had displayed any symptoms of the virus."

So the "risk assessment" is not fit for purpose, you are clearly moving infectious people around. Who knows what the answer is?
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Jouhou
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Posts: 2539
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:41 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Jouhou - you are listing the worst possible case, that needs to be kept in mind. I am interested in what the most probable case is. At this point I think the severe limitations on travel, monitoring of contacts, isolation of those contacts could be working. Italy and South Korea may be next on the US list for travel limitations. Not a pleasant thing to think about.


The past few days have crushed most hopes of it being an epidemic and not a pandemic. Read the link I posted, the consequences of being overly optimistic here are far worse than being overly pessimistic. Being prepared for the worst case scenario is absolutely not a bad idea. You want to have a plan to calmly implement, not scrambling to pick up the pieces when you get broad-sided with a calamity.

Also a "pandemic" is the most probable scenario right now considering it would take an act of god to stop it. Because of what we're seeing in Iran is likely to appear in even worse prepared countries now, what China does is irrelevant. What's up in the air is how severe and how fast moving that will be. There's now going to be multiple uncontrolled reservoirs of a very infectious disease that we might be able to slow spread into wealthy countries but it can't be eliminated without a vaccine.


A reminder to everyone, we have not seen a disease with the same capability of causing economic disruption on such a massive scale that didn't get contained early on since the Spanish flu. This is an unfamiliar scenario for all of us. Realize that if everyone at anet got infected, most of us would live through it but we're probably going to see economic chaos for a couple of years as supply chains and services are disrupted until we find a vaccine.

SARS did not find a breeding ground as fertile as Iran. How many Iranian travelers spread It to even worse off countries before It was discovered there? It's clearly well established there as we can tell by the death toll.
情報
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20563
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:40 pm

Jouhou wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Jouhou - you are listing the worst possible case, that needs to be kept in mind. I am interested in what the most probable case is. At this point I think the severe limitations on travel, monitoring of contacts, isolation of those contacts could be working. Italy and South Korea may be next on the US list for travel limitations. Not a pleasant thing to think about.


The past few days have crushed most hopes of it being an epidemic and not a pandemic. Read the link I posted, the consequences of being overly optimistic here are far worse than being overly pessimistic. Being prepared for the worst case scenario is absolutely not a bad idea. You want to have a plan to calmly implement, not scrambling to pick up the pieces when you get broad-sided with a calamity.

Also a "pandemic" is the most probable scenario right now considering it would take an act of god to stop it. Because of what we're seeing in Iran is likely to appear in even worse prepared countries now, what China does is irrelevant. What's up in the air is how severe and how fast moving that will be. There's now going to be multiple uncontrolled reservoirs of a very infectious disease that we might be able to slow spread into wealthy countries but it can't be eliminated without a vaccine.


A reminder to everyone, we have not seen a disease with the same capability of causing economic disruption on such a massive scale that didn't get contained early on since the Spanish flu. This is an unfamiliar scenario for all of us. Realize that if everyone at anet got infected, most of us would live through it but we're probably going to see economic chaos for a couple of years as supply chains and services are disrupted until we find a vaccine.

SARS did not find a breeding ground as fertile as Iran. How many Iranian travelers spread It to even worse off countries before It was discovered there? It's clearly well established there as we can tell by the death toll.

I want to discuss the economics. Ships are not departing:

https://gcaptain.com/shipping-counts-co ... ly-chains/

China is handing out force majeure letters as materials cannot be delivered.

https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com ... esses/amp/

Los Angeles has seen a reduction in ships from China:

“February is going to be one of the lowest months since 2015, and March will be soft also,” he said.

https://www.presstelegram.com/2020/02/2 ... beach/amp/

People forget there is a huge time lag in transportation, in particular ocean transit. For example, this is already causing concern for June weddings as dresses just cannot be shipped and workers are not in the factories.

Travel, in particular air travel and cruises, will be hit until there is a vacinne and 65%+ of people are vacinated. Supply chains are already mucked up. People are just beginning to realize that (e.g., how price of garlic has gone up 29% as China supplies 80% of the world's supply):

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... r-BB10gV5M

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
golfradio
Posts: 920
Joined: Mon Jun 15, 2009 5:35 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:49 pm

Yesterday, Iraq reported its first case. There are Iranian pilgrims traveling to Iraq. Given the mess the two countries are, I can't imagine how many cases are already in the wild. In the next 2-3 weeks, I think there will be an explosion of cases.

I wish WHO would just stop di*king around with semantics and just call it a pandemic. Governments now need to be kicked into action.
CSeries forever. Bring back the old site.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:07 pm

golfradio wrote:
Yesterday, Iraq reported its first case. There are Iranian pilgrims traveling to Iraq. Given the mess the two countries are, I can't imagine how many cases are already in the wild. In the next 2-3 weeks, I think there will be an explosion of cases.

I wish WHO would just stop di*king around with semantics and just call it a pandemic. Governments now need to be kicked into action.


They need to find sustained community transmission on another continent before they call it one. That's their criteria. Italy might do it though. I'm pretty sure it's mostly local transmission in Italy and the criteria has been met, expect a declaration within the next week.
情報
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 6265
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:47 pm

golfradio wrote:
I wish WHO would just stop di*king around with semantics and just call it a pandemic.

Hell freezes over before this happens.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:49 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Jouhou - you are listing the worst possible case, that needs to be kept in mind. I am interested in what the most probable case is. At this point I think the severe limitations on travel, monitoring of contacts, isolation of those contacts could be working. Italy and South Korea may be next on the US list for travel limitations. Not a pleasant thing to think about.


The past few days have crushed most hopes of it being an epidemic and not a pandemic. Read the link I posted, the consequences of being overly optimistic here are far worse than being overly pessimistic. Being prepared for the worst case scenario is absolutely not a bad idea. You want to have a plan to calmly implement, not scrambling to pick up the pieces when you get broad-sided with a calamity.

Also a "pandemic" is the most probable scenario right now considering it would take an act of god to stop it. Because of what we're seeing in Iran is likely to appear in even worse prepared countries now, what China does is irrelevant. What's up in the air is how severe and how fast moving that will be. There's now going to be multiple uncontrolled reservoirs of a very infectious disease that we might be able to slow spread into wealthy countries but it can't be eliminated without a vaccine.


A reminder to everyone, we have not seen a disease with the same capability of causing economic disruption on such a massive scale that didn't get contained early on since the Spanish flu. This is an unfamiliar scenario for all of us. Realize that if everyone at anet got infected, most of us would live through it but we're probably going to see economic chaos for a couple of years as supply chains and services are disrupted until we find a vaccine.

SARS did not find a breeding ground as fertile as Iran. How many Iranian travelers spread It to even worse off countries before It was discovered there? It's clearly well established there as we can tell by the death toll.

I want to discuss the economics. Ships are not departing:

https://gcaptain.com/shipping-counts-co ... ly-chains/

China is handing out force majeure letters as materials cannot be delivered.

https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com ... esses/amp/

Los Angeles has seen a reduction in ships from China:

“February is going to be one of the lowest months since 2015, and March will be soft also,” he said.

https://www.presstelegram.com/2020/02/2 ... beach/amp/

People forget there is a huge time lag in transportation, in particular ocean transit. For example, this is already causing concern for June weddings as dresses just cannot be shipped and workers are not in the factories.

Travel, in particular air travel and cruises, will be hit until there is a vacinne and 65%+ of people are vacinated. Supply chains are already mucked up. People are just beginning to realize that (e.g., how price of garlic has gone up 29% as China supplies 80% of the world's supply):

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... r-BB10gV5M

Lightsaber



I think in a pandemic situation the shipping industry will eventually be allowed to operate (because it's a necessity) once the world comes to terms with the fact that the virus is here to stay.

Passenger travel though... Cruise ships and airlines... I'm worried. We might see bankruptcies and downsizing, and a lot of people having a hard time financially on anet.
情報
 
1989worstyear
Posts: 887
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:53 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:52 pm

I'm not sure how much has been twisted in the article, but if we ever get past this current mess expect China to do the same thing to the world in another 15 years:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN20A0RK
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
1989worstyear
Posts: 887
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:53 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:16 pm

Jouhou wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
I'm not sure how much has been twisted in the article, but if we ever get past this current mess expect China to do the same thing to the world in another 15 years:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN20A0RK


On the bright side it's mostly elderly people exposed to the original Maoist propaganda who have this kind of attitude. At least this disease spares the young... Demographic change might give us a different China. That's all I have to say about that.

1989worstyear wrote:
Seriously, what's the f**cking point going out of the house anymore? Why are people still required to attend work with this going on?

What's the point of living this life for some of us anyway?


Chill, the goal here needs to be to mitigate economic damage. We need at least a few people going to work if we want people to be fed and their needs met. We can't shut down all of society simultaneously.


Those of us in the industry need to leave our jobs now and find something else. Either that, or find another way out (I'm choosing the latter I think).

Thanks 2020.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
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Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:25 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
I'm not sure how much has been twisted in the article, but if we ever get past this current mess expect China to do the same thing to the world in another 15 years:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN20A0RK


On the bright side it's mostly elderly people exposed to the original Maoist propaganda who have this kind of attitude. At least this disease spares the young... Demographic change might give us a different China. That's all I have to say about that.

1989worstyear wrote:
Seriously, what's the f**cking point going out of the house anymore? Why are people still required to attend work with this going on?

What's the point of living this life for some of us anyway?


Chill, the goal here needs to be to mitigate economic damage. We need at least a few people going to work if we want people to be fed and their needs met. We can't shut down all of society simultaneously.


Those of us in the industry need to leave our jobs now and find something else. Either that, or find another way out (I'm choosing the latter I think).

Thanks 2020.


Naw, just save money now. If the industry implodes, expect some government assistance. There's usually some propping up happening when a whole industry implodes vs a single company closing up shop due to competition. We need the airline industry for things to return to normal once we have the... problem... resolved.

Like I said, sometimes pessimism is the best way of protecting yourself, because you're prepared. Just prepare now in case something bad happens. We don't know how bad things will actually get at the moment.
情報
 
1989worstyear
Posts: 887
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:53 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:41 pm

Jouhou wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

On the bright side it's mostly elderly people exposed to the original Maoist propaganda who have this kind of attitude. At least this disease spares the young... Demographic change might give us a different China. That's all I have to say about that.



Chill, the goal here needs to be to mitigate economic damage. We need at least a few people going to work if we want people to be fed and their needs met. We can't shut down all of society simultaneously.


Those of us in the industry need to leave our jobs now and find something else. Either that, or find another way out (I'm choosing the latter I think).

Thanks 2020.


Naw, just save money now. If the industry implodes, expect some government assistance. There's usually some propping up happening when a whole industry implodes vs a single company closing up shop due to competition. We need the airline industry for things to return to normal once we have the... problem... resolved.

Like I said, sometimes pessimism is the best way of protecting yourself, because you're prepared. Just prepare now in case something bad happens. We don't know how bad things will actually get at the moment.


If this thing is going to kill me eventually why not quicken the process.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2489
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:43 pm

Vaccine needs to be developed with the next several weeks or so, and the treatment trial in China needs to speed up. It is 1 second for midnight for the Coronavirus If they don't do this, 2% of a couple of billions people will die (i.e. tens of millions).
Stopping all modes of transport and locking everyone up in their homes is not an option, unless you want to create Greater Depression 3.0 and revert back to the Stone Age.
 
brissypete
Posts: 11
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2007 11:15 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:01 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Vaccine needs to be developed with the next several weeks or so, and the treatment trial in China needs to speed up. It is 1 second for midnight for the Coronavirus If they don't do this, 2% of a couple of billions people will die (i.e. tens of millions).
Stopping all modes of transport and locking everyone up in their homes is not an option, unless you want to create Greater Depression 3.0 and revert back to the Stone Age.
Well Australian scientists have already started production of a vaccine for animal trials. Of course even with a successful vaccine there will be the anti vax types who will keep the virus going.

Sent from my G8141 using Tapatalk
 
golfradio
Posts: 920
Joined: Mon Jun 15, 2009 5:35 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:06 pm

Breaking news, a guy from YUL to YVR on AC tests positive. No details yet https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british- ... -1.5473283

It was just a matter of time.
CSeries forever. Bring back the old site.

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