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Aither
Posts: 1313
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:43 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:48 pm

Well of course this virus is killing people so that's bad. But I also believe the world really needed some paradigm shift. Seriously 80% of the drugs need components made in China. China stopping production is going to kill more people than the virus itself. It's time to rethink logistics and our too high dependencies over China. Labor costs in China is not that cheap anymore. Put in the equation the environmental impact of having all products shipped all over places to be manufactured and that's it, Trump could be right, it's time to repatriate some manufacturing.

I think as a result the aviation landscape will be different as well. There could be less traffic (I think many businesses will realize how videoconferencing works better now) but there will be much needed airline consolidation as well. HNA going down, it something which should have happened years ago. HNA group was killing the yields all over Asia. Too bad for them but great news for many.
 
mxp
Posts: 486
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 8:50 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:00 am

Here in Milan in my region all people died are elderly with pathology already
 
N757ST
Posts: 1116
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2002 6:00 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:58 am

Trump is asking Congress for billions to mitigate the virus, including vaccine funding.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... oronavirus
 
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2703
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:27 am

N757ST wrote:
Trump is asking Congress for billions to mitigate the virus, including vaccine funding.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... oronavirus


That is good news. The threat is being taken very seriously by the Trump administration.

$2.5 billion ($1.25 billion in new funds) is a lot of money. That should cover a lot of research and costs of test kits etc. Budgets shouldn't be an issue for the researchers anymore, they just need to focus on doing the job. And the same goes for local, state and federal agencies with regards to quarantines and managing an outbreak.
 
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Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2541
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:38 am

JetBuddy wrote:
N757ST wrote:
Trump is asking Congress for billions to mitigate the virus, including vaccine funding.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... oronavirus


That is good news. The threat is being taken very seriously by the Trump administration.

$2.5 billion ($1.25 billion in new funds) is a lot of money. That should cover a lot of research and costs of test kits etc. Budgets shouldn't be an issue for the researchers anymore, they just need to focus on doing the job. And the same goes for local, state and federal agencies with regards to quarantines and managing an outbreak.


It's not enough If this blows up in the U.S. but any amount of prep funds is a good idea. Hopefully they issue long term contracts with domestic ppe manufacturers with this money to provide a financially safe way for them to expand production- this has been hurting other countries already beyond China. It's also an inexpensive investment.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 649
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:41 am

CDC has issued a level 3 warning for South Korea. How long until we see the US carriers axing flights there as well? And how long until Japan is on that list?

This is looking worse and worse for the industry on the daily
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 18742
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:52 am

JetBuddy wrote:
N757ST wrote:
Trump is asking Congress for billions to mitigate the virus, including vaccine funding.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... oronavirus


That is good news. The threat is being taken very seriously by the Trump administration.

$2.5 billion ($1.25 billion in new funds) is a lot of money. That should cover a lot of research and costs of test kits etc. Budgets shouldn't be an issue for the researchers anymore, they just need to focus on doing the job. And the same goes for local, state and federal agencies with regards to quarantines and managing an outbreak.

LOL Trump asserts coronavirus 'under control' as stocks plunge

Trump tweets "Stock Market starting to look very good to me!" (as it dropped 1000 points)
https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... cks-plunge

Trump Has Sabotaged America’s Coronavirus Response
" In 2018, the Trump administration fired the government’s entire pandemic response chain of command, including the White House management infrastructure. "
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/co ... -response/

Meanwhile Ken Cuccinelli, the acting deputy secretary of Homeland Security, is busy googling "Coronavirus" and asking twitter for help, probably because he can't find much on his favorite Daily Stormer:
HOMELAND SECURITY DEPUTY SECRETARY CUCCINELLI CRITICIZED FOR ASKING TWITTER WHERE TO FIND CORONAVIRUS INFORMATION
https://www.newsweek.com/homeland-secur ... us-1488863

But it's probably fine. :rotfl:
 
asuflyer
Posts: 761
Joined: Mon Jan 01, 2007 12:48 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:59 am

In the past 48 hours we have seen Portugal and Spain have registered their first cases both people who had travelled from the area around Milan. In the Middle East Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq and Oman have registered their first cases.

https://www.cmjornal.pt/portugal/detalh ... o-no-porto
https://www.gulftoday.ae/news/2020/02/2 ... ters-three
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:02 am

joeblow10 wrote:
CDC has issued a level 3 warning for South Korea. How long until we see the US carriers axing flights there as well? And how long until Japan is on that list?

This is looking worse and worse for the industry on the daily


This is why I'm urging everyone do their part in improving hygiene and disinfection in every step of air travel. There's a lot of people here who play some role in this industry and while this can't be stopped a collective effort to reduce spread might limit damage. If there's never headlines about super spreading incidents in airports or aircraft... this is how the industry can avoid the worst case scenario.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:11 am

joeblow10 wrote:
CDC has issued a level 3 warning for South Korea. How long until we see the US carriers axing flights there as well? And how long until Japan is on that list?

This is looking worse and worse for the industry on the daily


Yeah, better put Japan on that list swiftly.
Japan should have a multiple of infections of Korea, considering population density, travel habits, public transportation density, etc...

In the meanwhile, the EU isn't doing much except releasing informationals, "coordinating" (whatever that entails as I don't see much coordination), sending a truckload of PPE to China, promising measely funding that will take bureaucratic years to trickle down to the people in the field, half of it through the geniusses at the WHO. If you want to bore yourself reading the EU's pseudo-response:

The EU's Response to COVID-19

The European Commission is working on all fronts to support efforts to tackle the COVID-19 outbreak.

This includes ongoing coordination with Member States to share information, assess needs and ensure a coherent EU-wide response. The Commission is also funding research, offering support through the EU Civil Protection Mechanism and supporting China with emergency medical supplies to tackle the outbreak at its source.

What has the Commission been doing since the outbreak of COVID-19 was reported in China?

1) At EU level, under the Cross-border Health Threat Decision, the Commission coordinates with Member States through three key mechanisms:

The Early Warning and Response System
The Health Security Committee
The Health Security Committee's Communicators' network.
These tools support cooperation, rapid exchange of information, swift monitoring and coordination of preparedness and response measures to COVID-19.

2) The Commission, with support from relevant EU agencies, in particular the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), is providing technical guidance related to: risk assessments; case definition for diagnosis and aligned reporting of suspected and confirmed cases; infection prevention and control in health care settings; advice for travellers; updated information on therapeutics and vaccines; contact tracing on aircrafts; management of points of entry and aviation sector recommendations.

Moreover, Member States' Joint Action Healthy Gateways, funded by the EU, is providing guidance and training on points of entry measures, as well as another Joint Action, SHARP (strengthened international health regulations and preparedness in the EU) on laboratory preparedness.

3) The Commission has been coordinating the delivery of assistance to China as well as financing the transport costs of EU Member States' repatriation flights.

4) To boost global preparedness, prevention and containment of the virus, new funding worth €232 million will be allocated to different sectors, namely:

- €114 million will support the World Health Organization (WHO), in particular the global preparedness and response global plan. This intends to boost public health emergency preparedness and response work in countries with weak health systems and limited resilience. Part of this funding is subject to the agreement of the EU budgetary authorities.

- €15 million are planned to be allocated in Africa, including to the Institute Pasteur Dakar, Senegal to support measures such as rapid diagnosis and epidemiological surveillance.

- €100 million will go to urgently needed research related to diagnostics, therapeutics and prevention, including €90 million through the Innovative Medicines Initiative, a partnership between the EU and the pharmaceutical industry. *

- €3 million allocated to the EU Civil Protection Mechanism for repatriation flights of EU citizens from Wuhan, China.

Is the EU prepared and equipped to contain the spread of COVID-19?

Member States continuously inform the Commission and share information regarding their levels of preparedness.

According to the information provided by the national authorities, there is a strong overall level of preparedness with countries having response measures in place to provide treatment for the cases in the EU and to mitigate any further transmission within and into the EU.

On 13 February, an extraordinary EPSCO Health Council brought together all Member States at a political level to discuss and coordinate measures to limit the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak and further preparedness measures to be considered for the future.

In response to the Council Conclusions of this meeting, the key actions on which the Commission is in the process of following up include continued risk assessment and guidance on travel advice; increased preparedness should the outbreak escalate to the next phase; and activation of existing funding mechanisms to support Member States on preparedness and response to the COVID-19. Other key actions include examining joint procurement for potential needs of protective equipment and strengthened support to the Health Security Committee in providing aligned information across the EU on the virus, detection, use of equipment, etc.

How is the Commission supporting the repatriation of EU nationals from China?

The European Commission has a 24/7 Emergency Response Coordination Centre that is coordinating repatriation flights with EU Member States.

The Commission provides funding to EU Member States to cover up to 75% of the transport costs of these repatriation flights via the EU Civil Protection Mechanism.

The EU Civil Protection Mechanism has facilitated the repatriation of 447 EU citizens from Wuhan, China. In late January, two French aircraft brought back 346 EU citizens, while Germany also conducted one repatriation flight, which brought back 101 EU citizens.

A third repatriation flight was organised by France, repatriating more than 70 EU citizens who were still in Wuhan.

The EU Civil Protection Mechanism also co-financed the last leg from London to the respective Member States of 95 EU citizens brought back on a UK repatriation flight.

Also under the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, Italy sent two planes for the repatriation of EU citizens quarantined on the Diamond Princess cruise that had been docked in Yokohama, Japan, since early February.

What is the EU doing to support China?

The European Commission coordinates the delivery of emergency medical supplies to China through the EU Civil Protection Mechanism.

As of 21 February, over 30.5 tonnes of personal protective equipment to China has been provided by France, Germany, Italy, Latvia and Estonia. The transport costs were co-financed by the EU Civil Protection Mechanism.

The first 12 tonnes came as an immediate first offer of assistance, via the first repatriation flights from France and Germany in late January.
On 14 February, Italy sent 1.5 tonnes of protective overalls and masks to the Chinese Red Cross in Beijing.
On 19 February, France sent a plane to Wuhan with a 20-tonne cargo of surgical masks, gloves, thermometers and disinfectant, which also included material from Latvia and Estonia.
On 23 February, an Austrian aircraft departed from Vienna with protective equipment which included masks, gloves, protective clothing and disinfectant.
The Commission stands ready to provide any further assistance to China.

The European Emergency Response Coordination Centre continues to reach out to Member States to map potential contributions of personal protective equipment that will be delivered to China in the near future.

How is the public health risk in Europe evaluated as regards COVID-19?

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) is monitoring the outbreak through epidemic intelligence activities, and provides risk assessments to guide EU Member States and the European Commission in their response activities. The ECDC is in continuous contact with the European Commission, the public health authorities in the EU Member States, China and other countries and the World Health Organization for the assessment of this outbreak. ECDC also publishes daily summaries and risk assessments for EU citizens.

What EU-funded research is ongoing on COVID-19?

On 31 January, the Commission launched a request for expressions of interest for research proposals on the novel coronavirus. A budget of €10 million is made available for research that will improve clinical care of patients infected with the virus, as well as the overall public health response. The Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) announced its plan for a fast-track call for proposals on the novel coronavirus to be launched in early March.

In addition, the EU already funds several ongoing research projects that have reoriented their focus to address the COVID-19 outbreak. For example, the PREPARE project ensures research preparedness of clinical treatment sites and the use of harmonised research protocols across Europe through their network of 3,000 hospitals and 900 laboratories in 42 countries. Another EU-funded project, the European Virus Archive GLOBAL (EVAg) has already made available more than 1,000 kits that support the diagnosis of the novel coronavirus, to 79 countries worldwide.

The Commission coordinates with the World Health Organization and other research funders to ensure that research gaps are covered. This happens mainly through the “Global research collaboration for infectious disease preparedness” (GloPID-R) network, the secretariat of which is EU funded. A global research and innovation forum was organised by the World Health Organization and GloPID-R on 11-12 February, to identify research priorities across 10 different thematic areas.

More information about the Commission's new research action is available and also the current EU-funded research into coronavirus.

Are food products imported from China safe?

There has been no report of transmission of COVID-19 via food. Therefore, there is no evidence that food items imported into the European Union in accordance with the applicable animal and public health regulations governing imports from China pose a risk for the health of EU citizens in relation to COVID-19.

Moreover, due to the animal health situation in China, only a few products of animal origin are authorised for import into the EU from China, on the condition that they meet strict health requirements and have been subjected to controls.

Is there a vaccine available?

The Commission, with relevant EU agencies, is actively engaged in the arena of therapeutics and vaccine developments. At this stage, the Commission is focusing its funding efforts on research with a timely impact on the current public health emergency due to COVID-19, including on the development of diagnostics and therapeutics. This is in line with the Commission's emergency research funding of €10 million that was made available at the early stages of the outbreak. Vaccine development is addressed through CEPI (the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation), an initiative the Commission contributes to.

More information on this point is available from the European Medicines Agency.

Background

What is COVID-19?

COVID-19, previously named 2019-nCoV, was identified in China at the end of 2019 and is a new strain of coronavirus that has not been previously known in humans.

Where do Coronaviruses come from?

Coronaviruses are viruses that circulate among animals but some of them are also known to affect humans. After they have infected humans, transmission can continue between humans.

A wide range of animals is known to be the source of coronaviruses. For instance, the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) originated from camels and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) originated from civet cats.

More information on coronaviruses is available on the ECDC factsheet.

What is the mode of transmission? How (easily) does it spread?

While animals are the source of the virus, COVID-19 is now spreading from one person to another (human-to-human transmission). There is currently not enough epidemiological information to determine how easily and sustainably this virus is spreading between people. It seems to be transmitted mainly via respiratory droplets that people sneeze, cough or exhale. The incubation period for COVID-19 (i.e. the time between exposure to the virus and the onset of symptoms) is currently estimated at five to six days, ranging up to 14 days.

While it is known that the virus can be transmitted when an infected individual has symptoms, there are still uncertainties regarding whether mild or asymptomatic cases can transmit the virus. If people with COVID-19 are tested and diagnosed in a timely manner and rigorous infection control measures are applied, the likelihood of sustained human-to-human transmission in community settings in the EU/EEA is low. Systematic implementation of infection prevention and control measures were effective in controlling SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV.

What are the symptoms of COVID-19?

From what we know so far, the virus can cause mild, flu-like symptoms such as

fever
cough
difficulty breathing
pain in the muscles and
tiredness.
More serious cases develop severe pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, sepsis and septic shock that can lead to the death of the patient. People with existing chronic conditions seem to be more vulnerable to severe illness.

Is there a treatment for the disease caused by COVID-19?

There is no specific treatment for this disease so the approach used to treat patients with coronavirus-related infections is to treat the clinical symptoms (e.g. fever). Supportive care (e.g. supportive therapy and monitoring, oxygen therapy, fluid management and antivirals) can be highly effective for those infected.

Is there a vaccine against COVID-19?

There are currently no vaccines against coronaviruses, including COVID-19. That is why it is very important to prevent infection or contain the further spread after an infection.


https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pressco ... nda_20_307
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4985
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:43 am

Vaccines are months, perhaps years away. What can be done earlier are treatment protocols. I suspect that trying different anti-virals is being done. Has anyone heard of reports of this? Assistance needs to be offered to all countries, including Iran.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:02 am

Japan announced their hyper mega super Corona Virus response strategy.

Basically, they're going to do nothing, except close schools or events where outbreaks are happening and send people in need to more local hospitals to get treated.
They may require people to self-quarantine.
"If you're sick, stay home" is Japan's strategy. :banghead:

:rotfl:

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202002 ... 41000.html

Japan is going to be the next Wuhan in no less than 2 weeks.
If you wonder how the virus got so big in Wuhan, we only need to look at Japan now and in a few weeks.

The exact same scenario is unravelling.

Japanese are reacting furiously on Twitter and Youtube chats.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:46 am

Some comments from a youtube feed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coYw-eVU0Ks

不都合をなかったことにすればより被害は拡大し、第二の武漢になる

経済止めない+パニック起こさないってなると政府ができる事なんて限られる個人で頑張るしかない

​政府主導で、拡大防止しろよ

​街で大暴れして経済止めらない限り政府は動かないよ。

Japanese are clearly furious at the government's weak response.

(translations coming)
 
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Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2541
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:09 am

Recent video out of Wuhan. It's unsettling.

https://youtu.be/x07uSrTQdNg

Edit: also I don't know if they're screaming for bad reasons but it's freakier than earlier videos of a more muted yelling of encouraging slogans across the city.
 
1989worstyear
Posts: 887
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:53 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:05 am

Jouhou wrote:
Recent video out of Wuhan. It's unsettling.

https://youtu.be/x07uSrTQdNg

Edit: also I don't know if they're screaming for bad reasons but it's freakier than earlier videos of a more muted yelling of encouraging slogans across the city.


As someone who dabbles in effects processors for musical instruments, the reverberation of the screaming sounds a little "digital" to my ears.

Has this video been corroborated? I imagine things are worse than what Xi's self-serving government wants to tell us, but we can't believe everything on social media. Come on Jouhou...

EDIT: In addition, why is the guy panning around all of those distant skyscrapers when those people screaming sound closer to the videographer?
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22712
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:16 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Japan announced their hyper mega super Corona Virus response strategy.

Basically, they're going to do nothing, except close schools or events where outbreaks are happening and send people in need to more local hospitals to get treated.
They may require people to self-quarantine.
"If you're sick, stay home" is Japan's strategy. :banghead:

:rotfl:

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202002 ... 41000.html

Japan is going to be the next Wuhan in no less than 2 weeks.
If you wonder how the virus got so big in Wuhan, we only need to look at Japan now and in a few weeks.

The exact same scenario is unravelling.

Japanese are reacting furiously on Twitter and Youtube chats.

Singapore and South Korea have shown the way to slow down (hopefully stop) the virus is trace every possible contact, isolate, test, and quarantine as required.

I hope you are wrong. This is not a statement about you, it is the policy of under testing is just inviting a super spreader event. Japan either nips this early or becomes the super sized Wuhan. There isn't much (if any) early correction time left.

This is really bad if they let the healthcare system become overloaded.

Lightsaber
 
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Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2541
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:30 am

1989worstyear wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Recent video out of Wuhan. It's unsettling.

https://youtu.be/x07uSrTQdNg

Edit: also I don't know if they're screaming for bad reasons but it's freakier than earlier videos of a more muted yelling of encouraging slogans across the city.


As someone who dabbles in effects processors for musical instruments, the reverberation of the screaming sounds a little "digital" to my ears.

Has this video been corroborated? I imagine things are worse than what Xi's self-serving government wants to tell us, but we can't believe everything on social media. Come on Jouhou...

EDIT: In addition, why is the guy panning around all of those distant skyscrapers when those people screaming sound closer to the videographer?


Because one of these videos of people chanting encouraging things a month ago was taken from the same apartment. Also screaming out of boredom after having movement restricted for so long isn't really some shocking unrealistic thing. It's just the net effect that is freaky to an observer.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 20090
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:05 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
They may require people to self-quarantine.
"If you're sick, stay home" is Japan's strategy.


Despite your mocking, the reality is, that's simply the best thing to do.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 20090
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:09 am

MaverickM11 wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
N757ST wrote:
Trump is asking Congress for billions to mitigate the virus, including vaccine funding.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... oronavirus


That is good news. The threat is being taken very seriously by the Trump administration.

$2.5 billion ($1.25 billion in new funds) is a lot of money. That should cover a lot of research and costs of test kits etc. Budgets shouldn't be an issue for the researchers anymore, they just need to focus on doing the job. And the same goes for local, state and federal agencies with regards to quarantines and managing an outbreak.

LOL Trump asserts coronavirus 'under control' as stocks plunge

Trump tweets "Stock Market starting to look very good to me!" (as it dropped 1000 points)
https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... cks-plunge

Trump Has Sabotaged America’s Coronavirus Response
" In 2018, the Trump administration fired the government’s entire pandemic response chain of command, including the White House management infrastructure. "
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/co ... -response/

Meanwhile Ken Cuccinelli, the acting deputy secretary of Homeland Security, is busy googling "Coronavirus" and asking twitter for help, probably because he can't find much on his favorite Daily Stormer:
HOMELAND SECURITY DEPUTY SECRETARY CUCCINELLI CRITICIZED FOR ASKING TWITTER WHERE TO FIND CORONAVIRUS INFORMATION
https://www.newsweek.com/homeland-secur ... us-1488863

But it's probably fine. :rotfl:


Let's put this in perspective.

Numbers from the CDC (I'm showing the low end here)
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm

2019/20 winter flu infections - 29,000,000
2019/20 winter flu deaths - 16,000

Those numbers are for the US alone and have next to nothing to do with Coronavirus.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:21 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coYw-eVU0Ks

不都合をなかったことにすればより被害は拡大し、第二の武漢になる if we treat an inconvenience as if it doesn't exist, the damage will increase, and result in a second Wuhan

経済止めない+パニック起こさないってなると政府ができる事なんて限られる個人で頑張るしかない avoiding stopping the economic + avoiding panic. If it is coming down to that, there is a limit to what the government can do, we are on our own

​政府主導で、拡大防止しろよ Government, take leadership and you must prevent the expansion.

​街で大暴れして経済止めらない限り政府は動かないよ。 as long as we don't go out on the streets and stopnthr economy, this government isn't going to move


Many more comments calling for the end of Abe's leadership.
No comments praising the (ridiculous) measures.

We have seen the government's poor leadership in the Diamond Princess crisis.

By the way, out of the over 900 people who got off the Diamond Princess, the government is keeping tabs on a pool of Japanese. 28 of them are now reporting the symptoms associated with Covid19.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202002 ... 31000.html

What a shameful display, this government should step down. The defense minister seems to be the only one taking it seriously, perhaps it's time for a temporary military regime? At least that should cut most of the politics/capitalism/Olympics/panic prevention cr*p?
Japan is losing precious time, god speed.
 
art
Posts: 4173
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:34 am

Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 04 3,235
Feb 05 3,887
Feb 06 3,694
Feb 07 3,143
Feb 08 3,399
Feb 09 2,656
Feb 10 3,062
Feb 11 2,478
Feb 12 2,015

New cases of confirmed and diagnosed infections

Feb 13 15,152
Feb 14 05,090

New cases of confirmed and suspected infections

Feb 15 04,918
Feb 16 03,927
Feb 17 03,611
Feb 18 03,318
Feb 19 02,934
Feb 20 01,671
Feb 21 02,503
Feb 22 01,758
Feb 23 01,530
Feb 24 01,029
Feb 25 01,038

Change in last 2 days +0%

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 04 221,015
Feb 05 252,154
Feb 06 282,813
Feb 07 314,028
Feb 08 345,498
Feb 09 371,904
Feb 10 399,487
Feb 11 428,438
Feb 12 451,462
Feb 13 471,531
Feb 14 493,067
Feb 15 513,183
Feb 16 529,418
Feb 17 546,016
Feb 18 560,901
Feb 19 574,418
Feb 20 589,163
Feb 21 606,037
Feb 22 618,915
Feb 23 628,517
Feb 24 635,531
Feb 25 641,712

Change in last 2 days +1%

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1438989
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2541
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:39 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coYw-eVU0Ks

不都合をなかったことにすればより被害は拡大し、第二の武漢になる if we treat an inconvenience as if it doesn't exist, the damage will increase, and result in a second Wuhan

経済止めない+パニック起こさないってなると政府ができる事なんて限られる個人で頑張るしかない avoiding stopping the economic + avoiding panic. If it is coming down to that, there is a limit to what the government can do, we are on our own

​政府主導で、拡大防止しろよ Government, take leadership and you must prevent the expansion.

​街で大暴れして経済止めらない限り政府は動かないよ。 as long as we don't go out on the streets and stopnthr economy, this government isn't going to move


Many more comments calling for the end of Abe's leadership.
No comments praising the (ridiculous) measures.

We have seen the government's poor leadership in the Diamond Princess crisis.

By the way, out of the over 900 people who got off the Diamond Princess, the government is keeping tabs on a pool of Japanese. 28 of them are now reporting the symptoms associated with Covid19.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202002 ... 31000.html

What a shameful display, this government should step down. The defense minister seems to be the only one taking it seriously, perhaps it's time for a temporary military regime? At least that should cut most of the politics/capitalism/Olympics/panic prevention cr*p?
Japan is losing precious time, god speed.


Japan is far worse prepared than South Korea. This was known before this virus emerged. Japan needs to rethink their public health infrastructure along with every other country, no one is completely prepared.

Notably, reactions aren't universally negative against governments. Taiwan has shown that if people are happy with the government's response and it is considered adequate measures of approval skyrocket. People have become extremely approving of their government in Taiwan and it's purely because of their response to this.
 
theaviator380
Posts: 682
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:44 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:03 am

What I don't understand, Japan in general are so strict about quality standards etc. well known for their discipline, infrastructure, modern facilities etc. are struggling to contain this !

Also I have been saying since around 25th Jan, countries should have been more strict on letting air carriers from China (doesn't matter which part) or people from that region...we can see the consequences !! utter shambles.
 
art
Posts: 4173
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:46 pm

scbriml wrote:
Let's put this in perspective.

Numbers from the CDC (I'm showing the low end here)
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm

2019/20 winter flu infections - 29,000,000
2019/20 winter flu deaths - 16,000

Those numbers are for the US alone and have next to nothing to do with Coronavirus.


I would point out a few things things:

1 Close to 10% of US population was infected by winter flu according to figures above
2 Death rate from winter flu figures is about 1 in 2,000 (0.05%)
3 COVID-19 death rate has been estimated at near 40 in 2,000 (2%)
4 COVID-19 appears to be more contagious than winter flu

It is not unreasonable to guess that a higher percentage of the US population would be infected by COVID-19 outbreak if the same measures were taken as with winter flu.
COVID-19 would likely kill 580,000 infectees out of 29 million. That is a threat of a different scale to 16,000 deaths from winter flu.

I also think it highly unlikely that less than 1% of the population of Huwan (10 million+) has been infected by what appears to be an easily transmitted virus.
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 6324
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:47 pm

The EU really is unbelievable... throwing money on useless WHO which has been downplaying the situation from day one and is more focused on not offending Chinese communists than doing its job.
Sending PPE to China when resources will be - as it seems - much needed in Europe is just expensive PR stunt, aimed to please god knows who.
 
theaviator380
Posts: 682
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:44 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:35 pm

L410Turbolet wrote:
The EU really is unbelievable... throwing money on useless WHO which has been downplaying the situation from day one and is more focused on not offending Chinese communists than doing its job.
Sending PPE to China when resources will be - as it seems - much needed in Europe is just expensive PR stunt, aimed to please god knows who.


Bang on mate ! utter nonsense that WHO and good few countries mainly in EU have not taken this seriously within first week of break !
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3610
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:41 pm

theaviator380 wrote:
What I don't understand, Japan in general are so strict about quality standards etc. well known for their discipline, infrastructure, modern facilities etc. are struggling to contain this !

Also I have been saying since around 25th Jan, countries should have been more strict on letting air carriers from China (doesn't matter which part) or people from that region...we can see the consequences !! utter shambles.


For Japan - my take is that they have all the standards, procedures, etc. but often doesn't have a "Plan B". When things go right, they're efficient and perfect. When anything goes wrong, they panic.

There's also the top-down mantra in Japan (Well, it's not just Japan but all of East Asia in general). With the top management often being political appointee, though, people are basically waiting for decisions from somebody that doesn't necessarily know what to do. Even if the top is competent, the top-down nature of things mean tons of bureaucracy = waste valuable time and resources to implement anything.

Jouhou wrote:
Japan is far worse prepared than South Korea. This was known before this virus emerged. Japan needs to rethink their public health infrastructure along with every other country, no one is completely prepared.


Japan is a larger version of HK right now - cases are everywhere, multiple clusters. Number may look bad for South Korea b/c of that giant cluster in Daegu/Gyeongbuk (Cheongdo-gun), but quite frankly, 80% of the cases are in that region, with the rest also mostly associated with Sincheonji Church (i.e. about 10 cases in Busan).

Meanwhile, it's 1 person spreading to 4-5 people in like 20-30 clusters in Japan. Those clusters can easily grow by another 10 people easily due to commute/work/etc. The full effect won't be known until 2 weeks later, either.
 
kalvado
Posts: 3233
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:49 pm

L410Turbolet wrote:
The EU really is unbelievable... throwing money on useless WHO which has been downplaying the situation from day one and is more focused on not offending Chinese communists than doing its job.
Sending PPE to China when resources will be - as it seems - much needed in Europe is just expensive PR stunt, aimed to please god knows who.

Note to self: make sure no help goes to EU when shit hits the fan.
 
theaviator380
Posts: 682
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:44 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:52 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
theaviator380 wrote:
What I don't understand, Japan in general are so strict about quality standards etc. well known for their discipline, infrastructure, modern facilities etc. are struggling to contain this !

Also I have been saying since around 25th Jan, countries should have been more strict on letting air carriers from China (doesn't matter which part) or people from that region...we can see the consequences !! utter shambles.


For Japan - my take is that they have all the standards, procedures, etc. but often doesn't have a "Plan B". When things go right, they're efficient and perfect. When anything goes wrong, they panic.

There's also the top-down mantra in Japan (Well, it's not just Japan but all of East Asia in general). With the top management often being political appointee, though, people are basically waiting for decisions from somebody that doesn't necessarily know what to do. Even if the top is competent, the top-down nature of things mean tons of bureaucracy = waste valuable time and resources to implement anything.

Jouhou wrote:
Japan is far worse prepared than South Korea. This was known before this virus emerged. Japan needs to rethink their public health infrastructure along with every other country, no one is completely prepared.


Japan is a larger version of HK right now - cases are everywhere, multiple clusters. Number may look bad for South Korea b/c of that giant cluster in Daegu/Gyeongbuk (Cheongdo-gun), but quite frankly, 80% of the cases are in that region, with the rest also mostly associated with Sincheonji Church (i.e. about 10 cases in Busan).

Meanwhile, it's 1 person spreading to 4-5 people in like 20-30 clusters in Japan. Those clusters can easily grow by another 10 people easily due to commute/work/etc. The full effect won't be known until 2 weeks later, either.



Sounds about right what you said on Japan and their system.
 
kalvado
Posts: 3233
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:53 pm

art wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Let's put this in perspective.

Numbers from the CDC (I'm showing the low end here)
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm

2019/20 winter flu infections - 29,000,000
2019/20 winter flu deaths - 16,000

Those numbers are for the US alone and have next to nothing to do with Coronavirus.


I would point out a few things things:

1 Close to 10% of US population was infected by winter flu according to figures above
2 Death rate from winter flu figures is about 1 in 2,000 (0.05%)
3 COVID-19 death rate has been estimated at near 40 in 2,000 (2%)
4 COVID-19 appears to be more contagious than winter flu

It is not unreasonable to guess that a higher percentage of the US population would be infected by COVID-19 outbreak if the same measures were taken as with winter flu.
COVID-19 would likely kill 580,000 infectees out of 29 million. That is a threat of a different scale to 16,000 deaths from winter flu.

I also think it highly unlikely that less than 1% of the population of Huwan (10 million+) has been infected by what appears to be an easily transmitted virus.

There are factors at play both ways.
Infections tend to become milder as they spread, several reasons for that
Unlike spanish flu infamous W mortality curve and seasonal flu U curve, COVID has a J-shaped mortality curve. Doesn't help those on the right of the scale, but definitely reduces long-term economic impact.
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 8706
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:34 pm

I, for one, feel very relaxed knowing the Trump Administration has a good handle on this, through a citizen-driven response on Twitter. Because nothing works better than the acting deputy head of a government agency coming to Twitter to ask for help in dealing with the coronavirus spread...you know, because it's not like he has access to agencies of government anyway.
 
kalvado
Posts: 3233
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:40 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
I, for one, feel very relaxed knowing the Trump Administration has a good handle on this, through a citizen-driven response on Twitter. Because nothing works better than the acting deputy head of a government agency coming to Twitter to ask for help in dealing with the coronavirus spread...you know, because it's not like he has access to agencies of government anyway.

Yeah, we all know China does it better than anyone else.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3610
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:55 pm

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6352253 (Japanese only)

With the 1st case reported in Tokushima prefecture, all 4 "main" islands of Japan now have at least 1 confirmed case(s).

The woman that contacted the virus was onboard Diamond Princess.

(Side note - Diamond Princess is turning into a giant fiasco for Japan...and the woman is far from the only person testing positive after the got off the ship as they were tested negative - there are at least 2 cases in Hong Kong that are also people that got sick after they get to the quarantine center in HK).
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 16327
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:33 pm

Criminals have used this as an opportunity to scam people for their personal information pretending to be the WHO

https://www.who.int/
https://www.who.int/about/communications/cyber-security
 
Alfons
Posts: 320
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 1:17 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:57 pm

mxp wrote:
Here in Milan in my region all people died are elderly with pathology already


What is the percentage of elderly (>75), without already existing disease or issues which are since long affecting their immune system? I have relatives who are between 75 and 85, I don't feel comfortable about the thought them to go through a full fledged pneumonia. Very scary thought.

First case in Kroatia, Austria and Switzerland today. Those 3 countries have borders with Italy... .
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 13836
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:05 pm

Some good news.

It appears the first run at vaccines are on their way to clinical trials, and there are signs that a drug from Gilead are helping to treat it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/business ... index.html
US biotech firm Moderna has shipped an experimental coronavirus vaccine to US government researchers just six weeks after it started working on the immunization.

Moderna (MRNA) said in a statement Monday that the first batch of its novel coronavirus vaccine, called mRNA-1273, has been sent to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).


Shares in Gilead (GILD) gained nearly 5% on Monday after the World Health Organization said that one of its drugs, remdesivir, is showing signs of helping to treat the coronavirus.
While the experimental vaccine developed by Moderna remains unproven, the speed at which it was created represents a breakthrough.
According to Moderna, the vaccine was developed within 42 days of the company obtaining genetic information on the coronavirus.
 
MareBorealis
Posts: 160
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:16 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:08 pm

A large hotel in Tenerife (Canary Islands) has been locked down and hundreds of guests are not allowed to leave after an Italian visitor tested positive for coronavirus. The islands are popular among the northern European sun seekers especially.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51627597

I just returned from Tenerife myself, the travel agency I used also sells the locked hotel H10 Costa Adeje Palace. According to a Finnish paper there are 20 Finns under quarantine, for two weeks probably. Don't want to be a drama king but it's possible there were infected people on my flight back to Finland, I met people who stayed in this (rather high class) hotel. And I chose a last minute package holiday in Tenerife instead of my original choice Thailand, to avoid corona. Rather ironic ;)
 
sonicruiser
Posts: 921
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:18 am

Worldwide map of countries with coronavirus

Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:55 pm

I saw an interesting graphic of coronavirus cases by country on Al Jazeera

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/ ... 20810.html

Image
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2811
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:56 pm

Looks like US suppliers are running out of N95 masks. I only located N99 left for sale.
If anyone is interested in buying these types of masks, DO IT NOW!

Airliners seem to take a massive hit. Coronavirus is basically the biological version of 9/11. The Dow Jones US Airlines Index ($DJUSAR) is down 5%. Before this is over, add a zero to the drop (50%).
 
bennett123
Posts: 10865
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:14 pm

einsteinboricua

If he is only Acting, what is his day job?.

What will his job be next week?.
 
sonicruiser
Posts: 921
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:18 am

Re: Worldwide map of countries with coronavirus

Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:14 pm

 
tommy1808
Posts: 14644
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Worldwide map of countries with coronavirus

Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:24 pm

Dynamic almost real time map & statistics:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

Best regards
Thomas
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3610
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:33 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Looks like US suppliers are running out of N95 masks. I only located N99 left for sale.
If anyone is interested in buying these types of masks, DO IT NOW!


Are you referring to N99 masks? Those are in general not really good for everyday use as the breathing resistance is high. In another word, they're quite uncomfortable.

casinterest wrote:
Some good news.

It appears the first run at vaccines are on their way to clinical trials, and there are signs that a drug from Gilead are helping to treat it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/business ... index.html
US biotech firm Moderna has shipped an experimental coronavirus vaccine to US government researchers just six weeks after it started working on the immunization.

Moderna (MRNA) said in a statement Monday that the first batch of its novel coronavirus vaccine, called mRNA-1273, has been sent to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).


Shares in Gilead (GILD) gained nearly 5% on Monday after the World Health Organization said that one of its drugs, remdesivir, is showing signs of helping to treat the coronavirus.
While the experimental vaccine developed by Moderna remains unproven, the speed at which it was created represents a breakthrough.
According to Moderna, the vaccine was developed within 42 days of the company obtaining genetic information on the coronavirus.


Good news indeed. A true vaccine is still months away, though. It should help reduce (greatly) the next outbreak if one occur.

Dieuwer wrote:
Airliners seem to take a massive hit. Coronavirus is basically the biological version of 9/11. The Dow Jones US Airlines Index ($DJUSAR) is down 5%. Before this is over, add a zero to the drop (50%).


The whole stock market is taking a dive...and this is with the impact of nCoV being VERY limited in US so far. Can you imagine if an Italian/South Korean style outbreak occur in US?
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 6324
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:36 pm

kalvado wrote:
L410Turbolet wrote:
The EU really is unbelievable... throwing money on useless WHO which has been downplaying the situation from day one and is more focused on not offending Chinese communists than doing its job.
Sending PPE to China when resources will be - as it seems - much needed in Europe is just expensive PR stunt, aimed to please god knows who.

Note to self: make sure no help goes to EU when shit hits the fan.


The biggest help to everyone the EU should have done was ban flights of Chinese airlines to the EU weeks ago. Afaik, only two EU member states have done it, ironically Italy was one of them.
Sending a planeload (half a day consumption of China?) of items China produces themselves does not make sense. They are a communist dictatorship, they can take extraordinary measures, e.g. send military to factories crank up production of face masks, disinfectant gels, etc.
The thing is, we don't know yet the true dynamic of the epidemic, mainly thanks to systematic BSing by China and useless WHO. Japan, Korea or Italy will probably provide vital info on how does the virus spread in standard environment (less incentive to underreport true situation on one hand, impossibility to implement truly draconian measures totalitarian regimes can get away with.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:59 pm

During a ministerial panel between Italy and several European countries neighboring Italy, Germany, it was decided to not suspend the Shengen agreement, so borders remain wide open.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-updat ... a-52516885


At this point, the political class has failed in Europe, Japan and Korea. Containing panic to keep their jobs seems to be taking priority over containing the spread.
We are all on our own in this crisis, it will be every man to fend for himself.
With cases popping up in Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, France from the Italian outbreak, the window of opportunity for containment is closed.
By now, hundreds, nay thousands of unknowing carriers may be roaming around in Europe carrying the virus around. We will find out in a couple of weeks.

The US is now getting behind the curve.
Either something big is cooking like a full borders closure, or they are failling like all other governments.
Chances are that clusters are already forming as we speak.

Scrimbl, "if you feel sick, stay home" is not a strategy at this point in the curve, it's stupidity.
Everybody in Japan should be staying home.
In this thread we have been ahead and most of our fears have come true over the past weeks.
Japan should be well into the 5-digits of cases by now, considering this has been there much longer and wider than in Italy, it's no longer a situation that can be contained or slowed down with simple measures.

The only containment method is to stop movements of people. People are starting to do this by themselves by cancelling travel plans, because survival instincts take over where reason faills.
 
kalvado
Posts: 3233
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:39 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
During a ministerial panel between Italy and several European countries neighboring Italy, Germany, it was decided to not suspend the Shengen agreement, so borders remain wide open.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-updat ... a-52516885


At this point, the political class has failed in Europe, Japan and Korea. Containing panic to keep their jobs seems to be taking priority over containing the spread.
We are all on our own in this crisis, it will be every man to fend for himself.
With cases popping up in Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, France from the Italian outbreak, the window of opportunity for containment is closed.
By now, hundreds, nay thousands of unknowing carriers may be roaming around in Europe carrying the virus around. We will find out in a couple of weeks.

The US is now getting behind the curve.
Either something big is cooking like a full borders closure, or they are failling like all other governments.
Chances are that clusters are already forming as we speak.

Scrimbl, "if you feel sick, stay home" is not a strategy at this point in the curve, it's stupidity.
Everybody in Japan should be staying home.
In this thread we have been ahead and most of our fears have come true over the past weeks.
Japan should be well into the 5-digits of cases by now, considering this has been there much longer and wider than in Italy, it's no longer a situation that can be contained or slowed down with simple measures.

The only containment method is to stop movements of people. People are starting to do this by themselves by cancelling travel plans, because survival instincts take over where reason faills.

Goal is not to reduce infections to zero, it is more about avoiding uncontrolled acceleration of cases. Staying home when sick and washing hands can be enough for cutting R0 to a safe level. Cost of full quarantine is enormous, health benefits may not be justified
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 13836
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:42 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
During a ministerial panel between Italy and several European countries neighboring Italy, Germany, it was decided to not suspend the Shengen agreement, so borders remain wide open.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-updat ... a-52516885


At this point, the political class has failed in Europe, Japan and Korea. Containing panic to keep their jobs seems to be taking priority over containing the spread.
We are all on our own in this crisis, it will be every man to fend for himself.
With cases popping up in Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, France from the Italian outbreak, the window of opportunity for containment is closed.
By now, hundreds, nay thousands of unknowing carriers may be roaming around in Europe carrying the virus around. We will find out in a couple of weeks.

The US is now getting behind the curve.
Either something big is cooking like a full borders closure, or they are failling like all other governments.
Chances are that clusters are already forming as we speak.

Scrimbl, "if you feel sick, stay home" is not a strategy at this point in the curve, it's stupidity.
Everybody in Japan should be staying home.
In this thread we have been ahead and most of our fears have come true over the past weeks.
Japan should be well into the 5-digits of cases by now, considering this has been there much longer and wider than in Italy, it's no longer a situation that can be contained or slowed down with simple measures.

The only containment method is to stop movements of people. People are starting to do this by themselves by cancelling travel plans, because survival instincts take over where reason faills.


People are going to move about. We can attempt to slow this one down, but it travels too long undetected. People need to work, people need food, and people need to go to school.

We need to better understand what complications that people have are causing the higher death rates to get those that are most susceptible to it , into treatment quicker.
 
Zeppi
Posts: 156
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 8:35 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:48 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
We are all on our own in this crisis, it will be every man to fend for himself.

Of course we are. If you purely trust/rely on the government/authorities you've already lost. Looking at the speed this is now spreading I expect things to go chaotic across southern and central Europe during March. And the authorities are just watching things getting out of control.
Meanwhile I stocked up on rice, canned tuna and vegetables. The outbreak area in Italy is a mere 200km away after all, autobahns and trains are still going as if nothing is happening. Certainly plenty of asymptomatic cases are already around...
 
kalvado
Posts: 3233
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:54 pm

casinterest wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
During a ministerial panel between Italy and several European countries neighboring Italy, Germany, it was decided to not suspend the Shengen agreement, so borders remain wide open.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-updat ... a-52516885


At this point, the political class has failed in Europe, Japan and Korea. Containing panic to keep their jobs seems to be taking priority over containing the spread.
We are all on our own in this crisis, it will be every man to fend for himself.
With cases popping up in Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, France from the Italian outbreak, the window of opportunity for containment is closed.
By now, hundreds, nay thousands of unknowing carriers may be roaming around in Europe carrying the virus around. We will find out in a couple of weeks.

The US is now getting behind the curve.
Either something big is cooking like a full borders closure, or they are failling like all other governments.
Chances are that clusters are already forming as we speak.

Scrimbl, "if you feel sick, stay home" is not a strategy at this point in the curve, it's stupidity.
Everybody in Japan should be staying home.
In this thread we have been ahead and most of our fears have come true over the past weeks.
Japan should be well into the 5-digits of cases by now, considering this has been there much longer and wider than in Italy, it's no longer a situation that can be contained or slowed down with simple measures.

The only containment method is to stop movements of people. People are starting to do this by themselves by cancelling travel plans, because survival instincts take over where reason faills.


People are going to move about. We can attempt to slow this one down, but it travels too long undetected. People need to work, people need food, and people need to go to school.

We need to better understand what complications that people have are causing the higher death rates to get those that are most susceptible to it , into treatment quicker.

So far, age (60+) and general health (cardiovascular, diabetics) are main risk factors. No rocket science...
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 13836
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:55 pm

Not sure about how accurate this is, but it suggests that age and sex has a strong relationship with mortality in this virus.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE
DEATH RATE*
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities




SEX
DEATH RATE *
Male
2.8%
Female
1.7%

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION
DEATH RATE*
Cardiovascular disease
10.5%
Diabetes
7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease
6.3%
Hypertension
6.0%
Cancer
5.6%
no pre-existing conditions
0.9%

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the

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