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Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:07 pm

The Iranian deputy minister of health has tested positive after showing symptoms of the illness during a press conference in which he was stating that the situation is under control...

https://nypost.com/2020/02/25/iran-heal ... for-virus/

What goes around comes around,
or shall we say what plays down, comes down.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:13 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The Iranian deputy minister of health has tested positive after showing symptoms of the illness during a press conference in which he was stating that the situation is under control...

https://nypost.com/2020/02/25/iran-heal ... for-virus/

What goes around comes around,
or shall we say what plays down, comes down.


So...everyone at the press conference is infected now?
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 2393
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:13 pm

kalvado wrote:
Goal is not to reduce infections to zero, it is more about avoiding uncontrolled acceleration of cases. Staying home when sick and washing hands can be enough for cutting R0 to a safe level. Cost of full quarantine is enormous, health benefits may not be justified

This is the only option left as containment has failed.

Spread out the infections over multiple years to prevent the hospitals from getting flooded.
 
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cjg225
Posts: 2180
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:48 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Looks like US suppliers are running out of N95 masks. I only located N99 left for sale.
If anyone is interested in buying these types of masks, DO IT NOW!

Airliners seem to take a massive hit. Coronavirus is basically the biological version of 9/11. The Dow Jones US Airlines Index ($DJUSAR) is down 5%. Before this is over, add a zero to the drop (50%).

Running?

They've basically been out. My company has been buying whatever ones we can find. Hell, our MRO vendors were basically going to Lowe's and Home Depot to buy them off the shelf weeks ago. What is left is residual stock in that's finally running dry.

3M in particular is running at hyper-speed right now to try to get production up.

I myself bought a bunch of P99 masks and some surgical masks a few weeks ago. I hope I have to use precisely 0 for anything related to Coronavirus; if I don't, that just means I don't have to buy masks in the future for home improvement projects.
Restoring Penn State's transportation heritage...
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:18 pm

kalvado wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
During a ministerial panel between Italy and several European countries neighboring Italy, Germany, it was decided to not suspend the Shengen agreement, so borders remain wide open.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-updat ... a-52516885


At this point, the political class has failed in Europe, Japan and Korea. Containing panic to keep their jobs seems to be taking priority over containing the spread.
We are all on our own in this crisis, it will be every man to fend for himself.
With cases popping up in Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, France from the Italian outbreak, the window of opportunity for containment is closed.
By now, hundreds, nay thousands of unknowing carriers may be roaming around in Europe carrying the virus around. We will find out in a couple of weeks.

The US is now getting behind the curve.
Either something big is cooking like a full borders closure, or they are failling like all other governments.
Chances are that clusters are already forming as we speak.

Scrimbl, "if you feel sick, stay home" is not a strategy at this point in the curve, it's stupidity.
Everybody in Japan should be staying home.
In this thread we have been ahead and most of our fears have come true over the past weeks.
Japan should be well into the 5-digits of cases by now, considering this has been there much longer and wider than in Italy, it's no longer a situation that can be contained or slowed down with simple measures.

The only containment method is to stop movements of people. People are starting to do this by themselves by cancelling travel plans, because survival instincts take over where reason faills.

Goal is not to reduce infections to zero, it is more about avoiding uncontrolled acceleration of cases. Staying home when sick and washing hands can be enough for cutting R0 to a safe level. Cost of full quarantine is enormous, health benefits may not be justified


How does that work though with something that spreads so readily?
Taxi drivers are getting this from people who sat in their cab for 10 minutes. And so is the next customer on the cab, and the one after that too, all of the former's families and some of their friends and wcoworkers, then their friends and families and people who sit next to them on busy busses and trains.

IMO when someone realises that what they have may be more than a cold, they may already have spread it to dozens of people.



I'm also going to close the loop on one utterly ridiculous aspect of the reporting, the 2% death rate.

February 1st Patient A contracts the virus on a busy train.
February 8th he has cold symptoms, but keeps going to work, spreading it to his surroundings.
February 10th he thinks he has a flu and stays home.
February 12th he seeks medical attention because his situation is worsening. H'e sent home with antibiotics and a docto's notice.
February 13th he realises that he's getting worse and worse and goes to the hospital.
February 15th positive test for Covid19. He is now one of 10 reported cases in the nation.
March 1st Patient A dies, along with 2 other people who were confirmed on the same day as him and whom by coincidence contracted the illness on the very same train he was on. Reported cases at the time are 100.

Question: as of March 1st, what is the fatality rate of the virus?
A. 3%
B. 33%

To give an accurate fatality rate, you need to compare the number of cases who died vs. the number of cases at the time he was infected (ideally) or by approximation the number of confirmed cases.
It's useless to compare fatalities against confirmed infection rates when the fatalities occur weeks later, when the numbers of cases have exponentially increased, dilluting the fatality rate.

Comparing the fatalities versus the recovered cases gives a more accurate picture of about 10-20% fatality rate.
IMO, this is a better benchmark.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 9100
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:52 pm

CDC now saying it is not a question of if, but when this will spread.

And yet they are not doing much. Still not clear if masks and glove are recommended, because IATA doctor is on record saying virus will not survive on surfaces and masks/gloves will spread more.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/health/c ... index.html
All posts are just opinions.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:56 pm

Can the virus be transmitted by birds and other animals? Because closing a border won't do a thing to a pigeon flying from Milan to Berlin.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:12 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Can the virus be transmitted by birds and other animals? Because closing a border won't do a thing to a pigeon flying from Milan to Berlin.


I have thought about this, but wild animals will not come in contact with human beings in closed quarters, the likelihood of spreading via animals crossing borders is hence low.
The probability still exists when animals consume garbage or other things that are infected.
So even with closed borders, a spread can't be ruled out completely, but then an eventual containment will be manageable.
Same for illegal border crossings. They can occur, but then you only have few trails to follow.

My opinion of the legal aspect of keeping borders open:
IMO border closures plus limiting the movements of people are the only ways to maintain control until a "fix" is available or the thing dies down somehow.
Governments who do not take sufficient precautions and allow infection to seep into their borders should be sued for wrongful deaths. Politicians should personally be held liable for wrong decisions they make in the course of this crisis. If they can't handle the responsibility, they should step down.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:19 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Governments who do not take sufficient precautions and allow infection to seep into their borders should be sued for wrongful deaths. Politicians should personally be held liable for wrong decisions they make in the course of this crisis. If they can't handle the responsibility, they should step down.


So China, who has learned absolutely NOTHING from the SARS outbreak and STILL has NOT closed down the UNSANITARY food markets, should be held financially liable for the world economic depression that will follow? You think they have a couple TRILLION dollars lying around?
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:28 am

Let's go back to the situation in China.
The WHO is quoting a CCDC (China CDC) report stating that infections have peaked in the nation and should start to whittle.

The below projections were made up to February 6th, this was weeks after Wuhan was shut down already.

While the lockdown of 760 million people, half China's population, may have slowed down the spread considerably, recent easings of the lockdowns should have the virus expanding in virtually every city in China where people are allowed to move around, creating a very alarming situation that the CCDC also cautions about in their report.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/24/who-say ... rning.html

So notwithstanding the reported numbers that are strongly undervalued as per China's own admission, China should be in a very alarming state as we speak, reaching towards millions of infections.

Back in January, a nurse in Wuhan reported 90.000 people were infected when officials numbers were less than 2000.

https://nypost.com/2020/01/26/coronavir ... 0000-sick/


There is no reason to think that the exponential growth has stopped and that other cities in China are being spared.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Forecast of Feb 2nd:
Confirmed cases are now increasing at a rate factor of 1.21, death rates at 1.17.
If the current factors is maintained, these are the forecasted numbers of cases in China alone:

February 7th 50.000 confirmed cases
February 14th 200.000 confirmed cases
February 24th 1.000.000 confirmed cases
February 27th 2.000.000 confirmed cases
February 29th 3.000.000 confirmed cases
March 7th 10.000.000 confirmed cases
March 10th 20.000.000 confirmed cases
March 19th 100.000.000 confirmed cases
March 31st 1 billion confirmed cases



Forecast of Feb 3rd:
New cases factor 1.18 (latest) and deaths factor kept at 1.17 (versus latest of 1.25)

February 7th 40.000 confirmed cases - 800 deaths
February 14th 125.000 confirmed cases - 2400 deaths
February 24th 650.000 confirmed cases - 11.000 deaths
February 27th 1.000.000 confirmed cases - 18.000 deaths
February 29th 1.500.000 confirmed cases - 25.000 deaths
March 7th 5.000.000 confirmed cases - 75.000 deaths
March 10th 8.000.000 confirmed cases - 120.000 deaths
March 19th 35.000.000 confirmed cases - 500.000 deaths
March 31st 250.000.000 confirmed cases - 3.000.000 deaths


Following the reporting of the latest numbers of confirmed cases and deaths, confirmed cases and deaths have evolved by the same factor as yesterday (resp. 118% and 117%), so I maintain yesterday's forecast.

Forecast as of February 4th:

February 4th 24.300 confirmed cases - 500 deaths
February 7th 40.000 confirmed cases - 800 deaths
February 14th 125.000 confirmed cases - 2400 deaths
February 24th 650.000 confirmed cases - 11.000 deaths
February 27th 1.000.000 confirmed cases - 18.000 deaths
February 29th 1.500.000 confirmed cases - 25.000 deaths
March 7th 5.000.000 confirmed cases - 75.000 deaths
March 10th 8.000.000 confirmed cases - 120.000 deaths
March 19th 35.000.000 confirmed cases - 500.000 deaths
March 31st 250.000.000 confirmed cases - 3.000.000 deaths

Numbers are growing at the same exponential pace despite the extended holidays and people in China limiting movements to essential only.


Forecast as of February 5th:
Factors adjusted to 116% for total confirmed cases and 115% for total deaths

February 4th Forecasted 24.300 confirmed cases - 500 deaths /// Actual 23.874 confirmed - 492 deaths
February 7th 37.000 confirmed cases - 750 deaths
February 14th 105.000 confirmed cases - 2000 deaths
February 24th 460.000 confirmed cases - 8.000 deaths
February 27th 725.000 confirmed cases - 12.250 deaths
February 29th 975.000 confirmed cases - 16.000 deaths
March 7th 2.750.000 confirmed cases - 43.000 deaths
March 10th 4.300.000 confirmed cases - 66.000 deaths
March 19th 16.000.000 confirmed cases - 230.000 deaths
March 31st 100.000.000 confirmed cases - 1.200.000 deaths

Factors to watch
-China returns to school/work on Monday 10th
-Health care system capacity already constrained in Hubei province, more and more doctors and nurses getting infected as well
-Japan has setup a quarantine ship to take Corona patients in Yokosuka with a capacity of 95 beds, have started carrying symptomatic passengers off the cruise ship to hospitals. Passengers who got off the cruise in Okinawa showing symptoms. Japan is a major risk point as many Chinese are still in the country, spread could happen much faster than in China due to population density.


Forecast as of February 5th:
Factors adjusted to 115% for total confirmed cases and 115% for total deaths

(February 4th Forecasted 24.300 confirmed cases - 500 deaths /// Actual 23.874 confirmed - 492 deaths)
February 7th 37.000 confirmed cases - 750 deaths
February 14th 100.000 confirmed cases - 2000 deaths
February 24th 400.000 confirmed cases - 8.000 deaths
February 27th 600.000 confirmed cases - 12.250 deaths
February 29th 800.000 confirmed cases - 16.000 deaths
March 7th 2.150.000 confirmed cases - 43.000 deaths
March 10th 3.300.000 confirmed cases - 66.000 deaths
March 19th 11.500.000 confirmed cases - 230.000 deaths
March 31st 61.000.000 confirmed cases - 1.200.000 deaths

The factors to watch:
-China returns to school/work on Monday 10th > >may be suspended. Schools closing until the end of February announced in Shanghai.
-Health care system capacity already constrained in Hubei province, more and more doctors and nurses getting infected as well. >> Beds being set up in event halls and gymnasiums
-Japan is a major risk point as many Chinese are still in the country, spread could happen much faster than in China due to population density.
-Diamond Princess cruise ship moored in Japan: 10 additional infections confirmed for 20 total infections.
-Risk from cruise ship in Hong Kong, as many passengers got off and are wandering around
-Flight ICN-LAS reportedly diverted to LAX due to Corona alarm
-New infections popping up right and left without prior links, people who haven't been in China recently
-Politicians in panic mode, Xi Jinping nowhere to be seen, Shinzo Abe tense



Forecast as of February 6th:
Factors adjusted to 115% for total confirmed cases and 113% for total deaths
The factor has been adjusted for deaths from 115%, total confirmed cases has not been adjusted as it is already the most conservative and is capped by the testing capabilities and not by the actual trend. The forecast will now be maintained until major changes in trend and serves as a best-case conservative scenario based on data from the past 6 days.

(February 4th Forecasted 24.300 confirmed cases - 500 deaths /// Actual 23.874 confirmed - 492 deaths)
February 7th 37.000 confirmed cases - 720 deaths
February 14th 100.000 confirmed cases - 1700 deaths
February 24th 400.000 confirmed cases - 5800 deaths
February 27th 600.000 confirmed cases - 8.300 deaths
February 29th 800.000 confirmed cases - 10.600 deaths
March 7th 2.150.000 confirmed cases - 25.000 deaths
March 10th 3.300.000 confirmed cases - 36.000 deaths
March 19th 11.500.000 confirmed cases - 108.000 deaths
March 31st 61.000.000 confirmed cases - 470.000 deaths

The factors to watch:
-China returns to school/work on Monday 10th > >may be suspended. Schools closing until the end of February announced in Shanghai.
-Still no decision on keeping factories in China closed on Monday.
-Health care system capacity already constrained in Hubei province, more and more doctors and nurses getting infected as well. Beds set up in event halls and gymnasiums are being occupied at a huge pace, too few health care workers to take care of patients, risk of further contagion at those locations.
-Still no global response. Trump savoring his victory, in the meanwhile the global supply chain is at risk of collapse.
-Japan is a major risk point as many Chinese are still in the country, spread could happen much faster than in China due to population density.> Total infections present in its borders quickly reaching 100, a majority from the Diamond Princess, the risk of spread to health workers and others is undeniable.
-Diamond Princess cruise ship moored in Japan: 10 additional infections confirmed for 20 total infections. > Now up to 61 total infections.
-Risk from cruise ship in Hong Kong, as many passengers got off and are wandering around > An additional cruise ship, the Westerdam has been denied mooring in Japan by order of PM Abe.
-New infections popping up right and left without prior links, people who haven't been in China recently
-Politicians in panic mode, Xi Jinping nowhere to be seen, Shinzo Abe tense
 
1989worstyear
Posts: 887
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:28 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Governments who do not take sufficient precautions and allow infection to seep into their borders should be sued for wrongful deaths. Politicians should personally be held liable for wrong decisions they make in the course of this crisis. If they can't handle the responsibility, they should step down.


So China, who has learned absolutely NOTHING from the SARS outbreak and STILL has NOT closed down the UNSANITARY food markets, should be held financially liable for the world economic depression that will follow? You think they have a couple TRILLION dollars lying around?


You're preaching to the choir in my case :yes:

Reparations, debt forgiveness, I'd love to see it happen but I'm afraid it won't happen. I hope foreign businesses at least pull out if the country in droves if this mess ever ends.

I did glance at an article regarding a ban that went through - 15 years still too late though! :banghead: :banghead:

I'll find it this evening after work.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:38 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Governments who do not take sufficient precautions and allow infection to seep into their borders should be sued for wrongful deaths. Politicians should personally be held liable for wrong decisions they make in the course of this crisis. If they can't handle the responsibility, they should step down.


So China, who has learned absolutely NOTHING from the SARS outbreak and STILL has NOT closed down the UNSANITARY food markets, should be held financially liable for the world economic depression that will follow? You think they have a couple TRILLION dollars lying around?


Well that's part of it, but governments of all other countries have an opportunity to stop this at their borders.
Isn't this why there are quarantine/customs stations at each international airport and why we're scrutinised by customs officers about carrying animals or food with animal content or the countries we visited recently, ie because of the risk of spreading diseases?
What point is there in confiscating and incenerating a person's Italy-made salami out of an abundance of caution, when anybody can walk in with a deadly and highly contagious disease in their body?

American citizens can and will definitely sue the US government for wrongful deaths of family members infected by incoming infected persons as a result of inadequate customs/quarantine policies, you can bet on it. If the borders are closed and somebody enters illegally, the liability doesn't apply but knowingly leaving borders open despite the presence of a widely reported highly deadly disease, is exposing governments to huge liabilities and not only the U.S.
The liability will also not necessarily be limited to a legal liability. Ie if enough people get angry, "We didn't know" may be accepted by justices, but people are going to hunt politicians down and make them pay one way or another.
Italian PM Conte better watch his back, Italians won't forgive him if this gets out of control. There is precedent after the WW2 of a certain dictator... Not easy to be a politician through such a crisis, but it's obvious that they are now playing a losing game.

I think that people individually are mentally prepared to sit this through in their homes and the Chinese and the locked cities in Italy are proving this, there is hence no reason to not take all possible precautions, including but not limited to border closures.
Border closures are a reasonable step at this stage. You can lock people into their country, or have to lock them in to their homes at a later stage. Which one's better?
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2795
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:06 am

theaviator380 wrote:
What I don't understand, Japan in general are so strict about quality standards etc. well known for their discipline, infrastructure, modern facilities etc. are struggling to contain this !

Also I have been saying since around 25th Jan, countries should have been more strict on letting air carriers from China (doesn't matter which part) or people from that region...we can see the consequences !! utter shambles.


Ever since the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster, I am of the opinion that Japan no longer is the land of quality and discipline. Instead, they are behaving like the proverbial Dear-in-the-Headlights, being caught off guard 24/7.
Last edited by Dieuwer on Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:12 am, edited 3 times in total.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2795
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:08 am

casinterest wrote:
Some good news.

It appears the first run at vaccines are on their way to clinical trials, and there are signs that a drug from Gilead are helping to treat it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/business ... index.html
US biotech firm Moderna has shipped an experimental coronavirus vaccine to US government researchers just six weeks after it started working on the immunization.

Moderna (MRNA) said in a statement Monday that the first batch of its novel coronavirus vaccine, called mRNA-1273, has been sent to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).


Shares in Gilead (GILD) gained nearly 5% on Monday after the World Health Organization said that one of its drugs, remdesivir, is showing signs of helping to treat the coronavirus.
While the experimental vaccine developed by Moderna remains unproven, the speed at which it was created represents a breakthrough.
According to Moderna, the vaccine was developed within 42 days of the company obtaining genetic information on the coronavirus.


What would the pricing strategy be of a vaccine and/or treatment drug in this case? Will the government enact price controls? Because if MRNA and/or GILD are the sole providers of life-savings medications, the price could technically go into the stratosphere due to their monopoly.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:14 am

Milano-Roma. About 80 high-speed trains per day.
Question: How long before this appears in Rome?

https://www.thetrainline.com/book/resul ... 3AStandard
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2795
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:28 am

Of course, someone had to be able to profit from a pandemic. Cue the "Pandemic Bonds" created by the World Bank: https://www.ft.com/content/70dd05ac-54d ... 2eed0038b1
 
727LOVER
Posts: 8633
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:25 am

"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22665
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:57 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
During a ministerial panel between Italy and several European countries neighboring Italy, Germany, it was decided to not suspend the Shengen agreement, so borders remain wide open.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-updat ... a-52516885


At this point, the political class has failed in Europe, Japan and Korea. Containing panic to keep their jobs seems to be taking priority over containing the spread.
We are all on our own in this crisis, it will be every man to fend for himself.
With cases popping up in Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, France from the Italian outbreak, the window of opportunity for containment is closed.
By now, hundreds, nay thousands of unknowing carriers may be roaming around in Europe carrying the virus around. We will find out in a couple of weeks.

The US is now getting behind the curve.
Either something big is cooking like a full borders closure, or they are failling like all other governments.
Chances are that clusters are already forming as we speak.

Scrimbl, "if you feel sick, stay home" is not a strategy at this point in the curve, it's stupidity.
Everybody in Japan should be staying home.
In this thread we have been ahead and most of our fears have come true over the past weeks.
Japan should be well into the 5-digits of cases by now, considering this has been there much longer and wider than in Italy, it's no longer a situation that can be contained or slowed down with simple measures.

The only containment method is to stop movements of people. People are starting to do this by themselves by cancelling travel plans, because survival instincts take over where reason faills.

Goal is not to reduce infections to zero, it is more about avoiding uncontrolled acceleration of cases. Staying home when sick and washing hands can be enough for cutting R0 to a safe level. Cost of full quarantine is enormous, health benefits may not be justified


How does that work though with something that spreads so readily?
Taxi drivers are getting this from people who sat in their cab for 10 minutes. And so is the next customer on the cab, and the one after that too, all of the former's families and some of their friends and wcoworkers, then their friends and families and people who sit next to them on busy busses and trains.

IMO when someone realises that what they have may be more than a cold, they may already have spread it to dozens of people.



I'm also going to close the loop on one utterly ridiculous aspect of the reporting, the 2% death rate.

February 1st Patient A contracts the virus on a busy train.
February 8th he has cold symptoms, but keeps going to work, spreading it to his surroundings.
February 10th he thinks he has a flu and stays home.
February 12th he seeks medical attention because his situation is worsening. H'e sent home with antibiotics and a docto's notice.
February 13th he realises that he's getting worse and worse and goes to the hospital.
February 15th positive test for Covid19. He is now one of 10 reported cases in the nation.
March 1st Patient A dies, along with 2 other people who were confirmed on the same day as him and whom by coincidence contracted the illness on the very same train he was on. Reported cases at the time are 100.

Question: as of March 1st, what is the fatality rate of the virus?
A. 3%
B. 33%

To give an accurate fatality rate, you need to compare the number of cases who died vs. the number of cases at the time he was infected (ideally) or by approximation the number of confirmed cases.
It's useless to compare fatalities against confirmed infection rates when the fatalities occur weeks later, when the numbers of cases have exponentially increased, dilluting the fatality rate.

Comparing the fatalities versus the recovered cases gives a more accurate picture of about 10-20% fatality rate.
IMO, this is a better benchmark.

I agree with the fatality rate being incorrect. I use resolved cases. It has been 9% fairly consistently.

The issue is rate. When a hospital system is overloaded, no one else can use the hospital. So deaths from strokes, heart attacks, auto accidents, flus, accidents, and even births shoot up.

I don't think discussing the Coronavirus death rate is the appropriate metric I would like to know Wuhan's overall death rate. I used 1.25% as an estimate, I know the global death rate is about 1.5%, but that includes countries with far shorter lifespans and higher infant mortality than China. I calculated a city of 11 million should have 367 deaths a day. Perhaps 420 in cold and flu season. What is Wuhan's current death rate?

Even without correcting for the halt in industrial and auto accidents, it would be telling. The crematorium utilization suggests a bad situation.

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 6324
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:18 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
During a ministerial panel between Italy and several European countries neighboring Italy, Germany, it was decided to not suspend the Shengen agreement, so borders remain wide open

Consider this: a routine EU summit is subject to regular suspensions of Schengen system. Fast spreading epidemic is not?

As expected from greedy, sociopathic Ryanair:
"If you are contacting us in relation to your travel plans in and out of Italy, there is currently no change to advice for airlines or customers from the Italian authorities and our flights are operating as normal.
...
We would like to reassure customers that our existing policies and procedures are in line with the guidance provided by the World Health Organisation (WHO)." :!:

https://www.ryanair.com/ie/en/travel-up ... es/COVID19

Despite all, one has to appreciate how Chinese airlines promptly offered full refunds without doing any fuss about it.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:49 am

L410Turbolet wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
During a ministerial panel between Italy and several European countries neighboring Italy, Germany, it was decided to not suspend the Shengen agreement, so borders remain wide open

Consider this: a routine EU summit is subject to regular suspensions of Schengen system. Fast spreading epidemic is not?

As expected from greedy, sociopathic Ryanair:
"If you are contacting us in relation to your travel plans in and out of Italy, there is currently no change to advice for airlines or customers from the Italian authorities and our flights are operating as normal.
...
We would like to reassure customers that our existing policies and procedures are in line with the guidance provided by the World Health Organisation (WHO)." :!:

https://www.ryanair.com/ie/en/travel-up ... es/COVID19

Despite all, one has to appreciate how Chinese airlines promptly offered full refunds without doing any fuss about it.



I think that of all airlines in Europe, Ryanair will see the least support from the authorities. I expect to see subsidies unleashed on the big 3 and some smaller national carriers, but the lowcosts will be mostly on their own. So I would say, let them have this one, they have a very bumpy road ahead.

It will be interesting to see how airlines will manage their cash flows.
Typically, they will have months worth of bookings prepaid on their bank accounts. When the bookings slow down and they even have to start giving refunds if they ground aircraft and cancel flights, all that fat is going to melt pretty fast. To be continued.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 2393
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:00 am

lightsaber wrote:
I agree with the fatality rate being incorrect. I use resolved cases. It has been 9% fairly consistently.

You can not do that with resolved cases.

After infection the average death might occur 1 week later, the average recovery might occur 3 weeks later. I have been told that their calculation uses a 3:1 duration between recovery and death.

This means if the new infected cases were doubling every week that means there would be 4 times as many deaths in the resolved cases. 10% then goes down to only 2.5%.

I will provide a basic example using the following rules:
1) Death occurs at 1 week
2) Recovery occurs at 3 week.
3) 100 peope got infected on the same day

Now after 1 week we might only have 3 deaths and 3 resolved cases. The mortality rate would be 100% using your method. After 3 weeks 97 people recover and the mortality rate at the end was only 3%.

There is no way the mortality rate is close to 10%. I highly doubt it is even at 5%. 5% is still extremely high and 50 times as deadly as the 0.1% flu. 5% is also the average across the entire age bracket. It might be 25% mortality for people over 80 and 10% for people over 60. But it might be only 0.5% for people between 20 and 30.

Iran for example the reported cases are probably only the severe cases. So it is a death to severe case ratio. The people with mild symptoms aren't even used in your calculation method. You have a situation of GIGO.

Take Australia as an example the accurate data. We have a 0% mortality rate. I would try and collect data from countries where the numbers would be accurate. South Korea would be good example. They did just have a 10 fold increase in cases within a week . The vast majority have many weeks until they join the recovered statistic but we already have the first few joining the death statistic as death occurs much earlier.
 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2699
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:47 am

Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Some good news.

It appears the first run at vaccines are on their way to clinical trials, and there are signs that a drug from Gilead are helping to treat it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/business ... index.html
US biotech firm Moderna has shipped an experimental coronavirus vaccine to US government researchers just six weeks after it started working on the immunization.

Moderna (MRNA) said in a statement Monday that the first batch of its novel coronavirus vaccine, called mRNA-1273, has been sent to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).


Shares in Gilead (GILD) gained nearly 5% on Monday after the World Health Organization said that one of its drugs, remdesivir, is showing signs of helping to treat the coronavirus.
While the experimental vaccine developed by Moderna remains unproven, the speed at which it was created represents a breakthrough.
According to Moderna, the vaccine was developed within 42 days of the company obtaining genetic information on the coronavirus.


What would the pricing strategy be of a vaccine and/or treatment drug in this case? Will the government enact price controls? Because if MRNA and/or GILD are the sole providers of life-savings medications, the price could technically go into the stratosphere due to their monopoly.


Price gouging always happens in disasters like this. It's not a good thing, but regulating the price of items is counterproductive.

What happens is this:

Company makes product X. Product X is in high demand and low supply. Product X then becomes more expensive, because in capitalism, any product is worth what a customer is willing to pay for it. Then the state decides to regulate the prices of product X. Now the company is not making more money any longer, and the income from the higher prices of product X is not there to ramp up production. And as a secondary result, there is now no incentive to produce more product X since they won't make money on it.

The best way to deal with it is to let the market regulate itself. Prices go up for a shorter period, then they lower and stabilize at a reasonable level.
 
dampfnudel
Posts: 600
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:42 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:12 am

JetBuddy wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Some good news.

It appears the first run at vaccines are on their way to clinical trials, and there are signs that a drug from Gilead are helping to treat it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/business ... index.html


What would the pricing strategy be of a vaccine and/or treatment drug in this case? Will the government enact price controls? Because if MRNA and/or GILD are the sole providers of life-savings medications, the price could technically go into the stratosphere due to their monopoly.


Price gouging always happens in disasters like this. It's not a good thing, but regulating the price of items is counterproductive.

What happens is this:

Company makes product X. Product X is in high demand and low supply. Product X then becomes more expensive, because in capitalism, any product is worth what a customer is willing to pay for it. Then the state decides to regulate the prices of product X. Now the company is not making more money any longer, and the income from the higher prices of product X is not there to ramp up production. And as a secondary result, there is now no incentive to produce more product X since they won't make money on it.

The best way to deal with it is to let the market regulate itself. Prices go up for a shorter period, then they lower and stabilize at a reasonable level.

Yeah, what else is new, money comes first, even during a time of crisis.
A313 332 343 B703 712 722 732 73G 738 739 741 742 744 752 762 76E 764 772 AT5 CR9 D10 DHH DHT F27 GRM L10 M83 TU5
 
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Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2541
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:30 am

RJMAZ wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I agree with the fatality rate being incorrect. I use resolved cases. It has been 9% fairly consistently.

You can not do that with resolved cases.

After infection the average death might occur 1 week later, the average recovery might occur 3 weeks later. I have been told that their calculation uses a 3:1 duration between recovery and death.

This means if the new infected cases were doubling every week that means there would be 4 times as many deaths in the resolved cases. 10% then goes down to only 2.5%.

I will provide a basic example using the following rules:
1) Death occurs at 1 week
2) Recovery occurs at 3 week.
3) 100 peope got infected on the same day

Now after 1 week we might only have 3 deaths and 3 resolved cases. The mortality rate would be 100% using your method. After 3 weeks 97 people recover and the mortality rate at the end was only 3%.

There is no way the mortality rate is close to 10%. I highly doubt it is even at 5%. 5% is still extremely high and 50 times as deadly as the 0.1% flu. 5% is also the average across the entire age bracket. It might be 25% mortality for people over 80 and 10% for people over 60. But it might be only 0.5% for people between 20 and 30.

Iran for example the reported cases are probably only the severe cases. So it is a death to severe case ratio. The people with mild symptoms aren't even used in your calculation method. You have a situation of GIGO.

Take Australia as an example the accurate data. We have a 0% mortality rate. I would try and collect data from countries where the numbers would be accurate. South Korea would be good example. They did just have a 10 fold increase in cases within a week . The vast majority have many weeks until they join the recovered statistic but we already have the first few joining the death statistic as death occurs much earlier.



Yo, you got this backwards. Death is occurring in weeks 3 and 4 of symptomatic illness. It's those who don't develop serious illness that recover after 2 weeks. Serious cases that don't die don't recover until weeks 4-6. They're the recoveries that take the longest, but they aren't large in numbers.
情報
 
BigBazza
Posts: 16
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 2:02 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:44 am

Not a recent video, but gives another insight into those on scene in China.
https://www.instagram.com/tv/B8-PYAuJtI ... hare_sheet
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2541
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:54 am

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/2 ... est-117329

Apparently Trump is worried about this impacting his re-election chances. So I thought we'd get strong actions to make us safe. Nope. He's doing the opposite. Pretending everything is fine. Officials lying to Republican senator's faces.

At the hearing, Wolf incorrectly told Kennedy that the death rate from the coronavirus is similar to that of the flu, when actually the coronavirus appears to be much more lethal.


What is this madness???
情報
 
art
Posts: 4168
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:33 am

6 nations rugby competition at threat from COVID-19 infections in Italy. BBC radio reports that Irish health authorities want to cancel the upcoming Ireland-Italy match scheduled to take place in Ireland.

I wonder what is the latest time Japan can announce cancellation of the Olympics if that is deemed necessary. Should they not be cancelled despite COVID-19 being present in Japan, I also wonder if sone countries will pull out.
Last edited by art on Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:43 am

Japanese government makes a U-turn and has started to take and recommend the first major measures.

Summary
The Japanese Minister of Education culture, sports, etc... has announced in a live press conference a few minutes ago that the ministry recommends to cancel or postpone all major cultural and sports events where people are expectes to congregate, as well as consider school closures where justified for the next 2 weeks until March 15th. March 15th is not a definite date, the situation will be monitored during the 2 weeks to make decisions about an eventual extension.

The government cancels or postpones all sports events that it organises. Private companies and associations are asked to make their own decisions, the government recommends cancellation and postponing.
School closures are the jurisdiction of local authorities and the government will support eventual decisions to close schools. Hokkaido will be closing all schools for the next week. The ministry will evaluate support measures with the rest of the government for working parents whose children will have to stay home due to school closures.
All national museums and cultural centers will remain closed.
The reason we have decided to take and recommend these drastic measures, is that we considered with a panel of experts, that the next 1 to 2 weeks will be crucial in slowing the spread of the virus.

Source: press conference live on Nihon TV
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:50 am

Jouhou wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I agree with the fatality rate being incorrect. I use resolved cases. It has been 9% fairly consistently.

You can not do that with resolved cases.

After infection the average death might occur 1 week later, the average recovery might occur 3 weeks later. I have been told that their calculation uses a 3:1 duration between recovery and death.

This means if the new infected cases were doubling every week that means there would be 4 times as many deaths in the resolved cases. 10% then goes down to only 2.5%.

I will provide a basic example using the following rules:
1) Death occurs at 1 week
2) Recovery occurs at 3 week.
3) 100 peope got infected on the same day

Now after 1 week we might only have 3 deaths and 3 resolved cases. The mortality rate would be 100% using your method. After 3 weeks 97 people recover and the mortality rate at the end was only 3%.

There is no way the mortality rate is close to 10%. I highly doubt it is even at 5%. 5% is still extremely high and 50 times as deadly as the 0.1% flu. 5% is also the average across the entire age bracket. It might be 25% mortality for people over 80 and 10% for people over 60. But it might be only 0.5% for people between 20 and 30.

Iran for example the reported cases are probably only the severe cases. So it is a death to severe case ratio. The people with mild symptoms aren't even used in your calculation method. You have a situation of GIGO.

Take Australia as an example the accurate data. We have a 0% mortality rate. I would try and collect data from countries where the numbers would be accurate. South Korea would be good example. They did just have a 10 fold increase in cases within a week . The vast majority have many weeks until they join the recovered statistic but we already have the first few joining the death statistic as death occurs much earlier.



Yo, you got this backwards. Death is occurring in weeks 3 and 4 of symptomatic illness. It's those who don't develop serious illness that recover after 2 weeks. Serious cases that don't die don't recover until weeks 4-6. They're the recoveries that take the longest, but they aren't large in numbers.


A family member of mine died a few years ago of a lung infection. His lungs were failing and breaking apart. It was a 2 months long agonising battle in the hospital.
Dr. Li also died a while after being infected.
It's not a pretty death, it's like you're drawning for weeks on end.
You don't die from it right away, that's for sure.
If you hear of people dropping dead soon after being confirmed positive, it means that they must have had it for several weeks already or they had a compromised health condition and a covid19 infection became a fatal complication.
 
art
Posts: 4168
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:24 am

Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 04 3,235
Feb 05 3,887
Feb 06 3,694
Feb 07 3,143
Feb 08 3,399
Feb 09 2,656
Feb 10 3,062
Feb 11 2,478
Feb 12 2,015

New cases of confirmed and diagnosed infections

Feb 13 15,152
Feb 14 05,090

New cases of confirmed and suspected infections

Feb 15 04,918
Feb 16 03,927
Feb 17 03,611
Feb 18 03,318
Feb 19 02,934
Feb 20 01,671
Feb 21 02,503
Feb 22 01,758
Feb 23 01,530
Feb 24 01,029
Feb 25 01,038
Feb 26 00,845

Change in last 2 days -19%

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 04 221,015
Feb 05 252,154
Feb 06 282,813
Feb 07 314,028
Feb 08 345,498
Feb 09 371,904
Feb 10 399,487
Feb 11 428,438
Feb 12 451,462
Feb 13 471,531
Feb 14 493,067
Feb 15 513,183
Feb 16 529,418
Feb 17 546,016
Feb 18 560,901
Feb 19 574,418
Feb 20 589,163
Feb 21 606,037
Feb 22 618,915
Feb 23 628,517
Feb 24 635,531
Feb 25 641,712
Feb 26 647,406

Change in last 2 days +0.9%

http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/26/c_76925.htm
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22665
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:50 am

RJMAZ wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I agree with the fatality rate being incorrect. I use resolved cases. It has been 9% fairly consistently.

You can not do that with resolved cases.

After infection the average death might occur 1 week later, the average recovery might occur 3 weeks later. I have been told that their calculation uses a 3:1 duration between recovery and death.

This means if the new infected cases were doubling every week that means there would be 4 times as many deaths in the resolved cases. 10% then goes down to only 2.5%.

I will provide a basic example using the following rules:
1) Death occurs at 1 week
2) Recovery occurs at 3 week.
3) 100 peope got infected on the same day

Now after 1 week we might only have 3 deaths and 3 resolved cases. The mortality rate would be 100% using your method. After 3 weeks 97 people recover and the mortality rate at the end was only 3%.

There is no way the mortality rate is close to 10%. I highly doubt it is even at 5%. 5% is still extremely high and 50 times as deadly as the 0.1% flu. 5% is also the average across the entire age bracket. It might be 25% mortality for people over 80 and 10% for people over 60. But it might be only 0.5% for people between 20 and 30.

Iran for example the reported cases are probably only the severe cases. So it is a death to severe case ratio. The people with mild symptoms aren't even used in your calculation method. You have a situation of GIGO.

Take Australia as an example the accurate data. We have a 0% mortality rate. I would try and collect data from countries where the numbers would be accurate. South Korea would be good example. They did just have a 10 fold increase in cases within a week . The vast majority have many weeks until they join the recovered statistic but we already have the first few joining the death statistic as death occurs much earlier.

I agree my numbers might be a bit low (diluted by new cases), but to make decisions, one must have information.

Singapore and South Korea have great, albeit for South Korea very early in the process. However, as already noted, for most death is slow, as is recovery My impression is most deaths take 3 to 5 weeks, not much less than recovery.

Decision making requires making assumptions.
How many will not become sick.
How many mild cases
How many severe that recover
How many deaths.

The issue with Coronavirus is that once the severe cases spike, the health care system is overwhelmed and then deaths spike.

Due to the slowness of this illness, decisions must be made early, when they appear far more costly than the benefit, to stop overloading the medical system.

Unfortunately, we now have cases on every continent. Iran and Japan seem determined to compete for the award of "surprise, we should have tested earlier." South Korea might get the award for most proactive response.

I wish be had plausible numbers out of China as that would help everyone.
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 22665
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:21 am

dampfnudel wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

What would the pricing strategy be of a vaccine and/or treatment drug in this case? Will the government enact price controls? Because if MRNA and/or GILD are the sole providers of life-savings medications, the price could technically go into the stratosphere due to their monopoly.


Price gouging always happens in disasters like this. It's not a good thing, but regulating the price of items is counterproductive.

What happens is this:

Company makes product X. Product X is in high demand and low supply. Product X then becomes more expensive, because in capitalism, any product is worth what a customer is willing to pay for it. Then the state decides to regulate the prices of product X. Now the company is not making more money any longer, and the income from the higher prices of product X is not there to ramp up production. And as a secondary result, there is now no incentive to produce more product X since they won't make money on it.

The best way to deal with it is to let the market regulate itself. Prices go up for a shorter period, then they lower and stabilize at a reasonable level.

Yeah, what else is new, money comes first, even during a time of crisis.

"The cure for high prices is even higher prices."

It is a dream to think companies can justify a production ramp without elevated profits. Even overtime adds costs. Have you read Adam Smith's book "Wealth of Nations?" Price controls are the surest way to ensure an extended shortage

If prices spike, everyone rushes to sell. The exception is a monopoly.

Rationing is the only alternative, but that just means a huge amount of the profit goes to black markets. If prices do not rise, there is no incentive to stop hording too.

Vaccines take a long time to produce in bulk. Either government fund the production (and risk) or the companies investing tens of millions must justify the business case in competition with competitors

Read "Wealth of Nations." It hasn't been proven wrong yet. Considering the 1776 publication date, that is a great track record.

Lightsaber
10 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
User avatar
readytotaxi
Posts: 8035
Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2006 2:09 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:13 pm

Just a thought, if cases are found in Florida what are the chances the theme parks in Orlando could be closed as Japan did? Can't imagine walking around there in a mask would be a lot of fun.
you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
Growing older, but not up.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4961
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:17 pm

Death rates thus far are problematical. It has only been in a last couple weeks that even advanced economy counties know what they should do. There are not enough cases in such countries and which have advanced medical facilities. Treatment may also be evolving to be more curative. There are hints that at least one available anti-viral agent may help.

It is known what ought not to have been done. China was unprepared and slow in reacting. Japan has not done all that much better, but they will. South Korea was blindsided by a large religious cult. I suspect that epidemiologists are evaluating Japan, the cruise ship, South Korea and Italy, and from that will start coming up with meaningful statistics. The three countries likely are providing the best available treatments, (and slowly learning how to test and isolate) and from that we will begin to learn meaningful death rates. And actual infection rates.

The current US administration junked a lot of the epidemic control infrastructure, and has stupidly earmarked most of the proposed spending on vaccines. Vaccines are important, but will not play a significant role in the next several weeks, even months.
Last edited by frmrCapCadet on Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cjg225
Posts: 2180
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:17 pm

On the price gouging...

Our Procurement colleagues found 20 million surgical masks in Brazil that we wanted to buy and ship to our colleagues in the Asia-Pacific region. The Brazilian vendor wanted to charge us like 12x the going rate for these masks. Our Procurement people were full of indignation about this.

It's supply and demand, man. This is how the world works. Maybe the 12x rate was artificially high, but it is absolutely going to be higher than the normal rate given the extreme demand right now.

We're certainly paying more for air freight to get our medicines into China (along with the relief supplies we're shipping). Supply is way down, demand is way up. It's reality.
Restoring Penn State's transportation heritage...
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3609
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:03 pm

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east- ... tive-again

Makes one wonder how many people are truly "recovered", or how effective the existing tests are. At least the local health authority in Guangzhou is being forward about this, though.

readytotaxi wrote:
Just a thought, if cases are found in Florida what are the chances the theme parks in Orlando could be closed as Japan did? Can't imagine walking around there in a mask would be a lot of fun.


Theme Parks in Japan are NOT closed...The "Big 2" (Disney Resort in Tokyo and USJ in Osaka) are both still open.

Universal Studios in Singapore is NOT closed either BTW.

Hack, even South Korea haven't close their Theme Parks yet AFAIK (At least just looking at Lotte World...they seems to be still open).

Theme Parks are closed in Hong Kong (not like many locals will go to Disneyland or Ocean Park even if they were open anyway...and there are not exactly tons of tourists right now either). They're closed in China (i.e. Disneyland Shanghai). That's about it.
 
kalvado
Posts: 3205
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:49 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/14-of-recovered-coronavirus-patients-in-chinas-guangdong-tested-positive-again

Makes one wonder how many people are truly "recovered", or how effective the existing tests are. At least the local health authority in Guangzhou is being forward about this, though.

It is not unheard of "fully recovered" people still carrying virus for a while. Certain viruses can never be fully removed (e.g.HIV) - although that is not the case for nCoV. Hepatitis deserve special mention as virus can be detected for decades after clinical symptoms are gone. Difference here is that most such diseases are not readily contagious in everyday life; however people may be banned for life from blood donation after infection, even if symptoms never develop. People "fully recovered" from ebola had virus detected in unexpected body areas, like inside the eye.
 
max999
Posts: 1276
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2005 11:05 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:18 pm

According to this article in the Scientist, the mortality rate jumps significantly for people who have underlying conditions. https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opin ... hers-67160

"While less than 1 percent of people who were otherwise healthy died from the disease, the fatality rate for people with cardiovascular disease was 10.5 percent. That figure was 7.3 percent for diabetes patients and around 6 percent for those with chronic respiratory disease, hypertension, or cancer"
All the things I really like to do are either immoral, illegal, or fattening.
 
bgm
Posts: 2535
Joined: Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:37 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:43 pm

How is this going to affect patients the US where not everyone has access to healthcare or can't afford it?
 
Zaf
Posts: 113
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 9:47 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:39 pm

the situation in Europe was pretty much under control. Thanks to our sleepy neighbours from Italy we have an unstopable epidemic now. Expecting 100 cases in Germany and France by the weekend, 10.000 by end of March.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 9100
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:50 pm

Zaf wrote:
the situation in Europe was pretty much under control. .


Every country is claiming the same thing, I doubt it.

IATA doctor claims there no need to wear masks and says the virus won't survive on cabin surfaces. Suggests washing hands frequently, where, in an aircraft lav used by hundreds and occasionally wiped down.

The response is commerce-driven at best not public health driven.

There are still flights to affected areas, long incubation periods, show screening and lack of test kits.

The only silver lining, this virus spared kids. Knock on wood.

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/how ... ine-doctor
All posts are just opinions.
 
kalvado
Posts: 3205
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:11 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
The response is commerce-driven at best not public health driven.

There is an intrinsic need to balance effects. Total economy shutdown for extended period of time can be as harmful as a large epidemics. Confining epidemic at a minimum cost sounds about right.
Now for customer-facing jobs with a lot of interaction it is a specifically challenging situation. Masks.. best thing is to put masks on pax first, but forcing them on everyone is difficult at best. Virus survival.. U guess nobody knows for sure; a lot of hand sanitizer may help (if allowed past security to begin with!)
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 9100
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:21 pm

kalvado wrote:
but forcing them on everyone is difficult at best. Virus survival.. U guess nobody knows for sure; a lot of hand sanitizer may help (if allowed past security to begin with!)


Not asking to force on anyone, just saying don't give misleading advice if there is no clear evidence.
All posts are just opinions.
 
NIKV69
Posts: 14382
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:27 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:32 pm

bgm wrote:
How is this going to affect patients the US where not everyone has access to healthcare or can't afford it?


The tax payers will pick up the tab, what else?
90 Day Fiancé has taught me that Russian woman are excellent.
 
kalvado
Posts: 3205
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:45 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
kalvado wrote:
but forcing them on everyone is difficult at best. Virus survival.. U guess nobody knows for sure; a lot of hand sanitizer may help (if allowed past security to begin with!)


Not asking to force on anyone, just saying don't give misleading advice if there is no clear evidence.

Thing is, mask intercepting infection as it exits the body is the most efficient thing... As for clear advice - I assume this is actually the best they can say. Would yolu prefer that there is no comments at all?
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 9100
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:03 pm

kalvado wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
kalvado wrote:
but forcing them on everyone is difficult at best. Virus survival.. U guess nobody knows for sure; a lot of hand sanitizer may help (if allowed past security to begin with!)


Not asking to force on anyone, just saying don't give misleading advice if there is no clear evidence.

Thing is, mask intercepting infection as it exits the body is the most efficient thing... As for clear advice - I assume this is actually the best they can say. Would yolu prefer that there is no comments at all?


I would prefer consistency in commentary. If I recall correctly earlier the theory was in a confined metal tube one sneeze can spread to four-five rows. Now the IATA doctor saying "forget masks", I see a disconnect.
All posts are just opinions.
 
kalvado
Posts: 3205
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:11 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
kalvado wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

Not asking to force on anyone, just saying don't give misleading advice if there is no clear evidence.

Thing is, mask intercepting infection as it exits the body is the most efficient thing... As for clear advice - I assume this is actually the best they can say. Would yolu prefer that there is no comments at all?


I would prefer consistency in commentary. If I recall correctly earlier the theory was in a confined metal tube one sneeze can spread to four-five rows. Now the IATA doctor saying "forget masks", I see a disconnect.

Problem is, mask has to go on the sneezer, not on you. Until you're the sneezer, of course.
ANd then, there is still hope infection can be cut off at source, so general population risk from quick single exposure is low. And as far as I remember, a few people were taken off the planes and later tested positive, but no large clusters of cases from those. AC had one such event 2 weeks ago; but no follow-up cases.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2795
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:17 pm

kalvado wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Thing is, mask intercepting infection as it exits the body is the most efficient thing... As for clear advice - I assume this is actually the best they can say. Would yolu prefer that there is no comments at all?


I would prefer consistency in commentary. If I recall correctly earlier the theory was in a confined metal tube one sneeze can spread to four-five rows. Now the IATA doctor saying "forget masks", I see a disconnect.

Problem is, mask has to go on the sneezer, not on you. Until you're the sneezer, of course.
ANd then, there is still hope infection can be cut off at source, so general population risk from quick single exposure is low. And as far as I remember, a few people were taken off the planes and later tested positive, but no large clusters of cases from those. AC had one such event 2 weeks ago; but no follow-up cases.


You cannot have it both ways. Either it is highly contagious and border closures and quarantines are warranted, or it is not.
Unless we are absolutely sure about HOW the virus is transmitted, any statement for or against wearing masks, banning this or that, and locking up people or not is premature.

If as you say a few people on the AC plane were infected, but subsequently all the others on the same plane were and are healthy...then the preliminary conclusion must be that the virus is NOT highly contagious. To give a counter example, just imagine if a few people on that plane had Ebola. I am sure everyone on that plane on arrival at the airport would be dead.
 
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2699
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:27 pm

There are different types of masks, guys. The typical flimsy and thin paper masks only prevent you from spreading your germs and viruses to other people. Other respiratory masks such as FFP3/P3 masks from 3M protect you from other people's germs and viruses, but it doesn't protect others from yourself.

However, this virus spreads via "mucosa", and even the eyes. So it's very difficult to protect from.
 
kalvado
Posts: 3205
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:32 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
kalvado wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

I would prefer consistency in commentary. If I recall correctly earlier the theory was in a confined metal tube one sneeze can spread to four-five rows. Now the IATA doctor saying "forget masks", I see a disconnect.

Problem is, mask has to go on the sneezer, not on you. Until you're the sneezer, of course.
ANd then, there is still hope infection can be cut off at source, so general population risk from quick single exposure is low. And as far as I remember, a few people were taken off the planes and later tested positive, but no large clusters of cases from those. AC had one such event 2 weeks ago; but no follow-up cases.


You cannot have it both ways. Either it is highly contagious and border closures and quarantines are warranted, or it is not.
Unless we are absolutely sure about HOW the virus is transmitted, any statement for or against wearing masks, banning this or that, and locking up people or not is premature.

If as you say a few people on the AC plane were infected, but subsequently all the others on the same plane were and are healthy...then the preliminary conclusion must be that the virus is NOT highly contagious. To give a counter example, just imagine if a few people on that plane had Ebola. I am sure everyone on that plane on arrival at the airport would be dead.

There is no true boundary between "highly" and "not too much". So far, estimates are that average patient infects 3 people over the course of infection. Which is bad - but think about it... most of us interact with more than 3 people a week, so instant infection is not the thing. 3, or maybe 4, is still bad enough, so that serious steps are required. Some people want extreme steps (did anyone suggested to nuke Wuhan yet?). My impression is that a lot of what is done is an overkill. But I am afraid to say that - I am afraid to be proven wrong by future events.
https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/air-canada- ... -1.4824097 is the event I am talking about - and I didn't see any follow-up. It is close to 2 weeks by now, most infections should be recognized.

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