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Jouhou
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Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:16 am

Ewwwwwwwww, the political thread got merged with this one and now we have political trolling in here, great.

I was happy keeping my disgust at politicians separate.

To keep it less directly political, let me say one of the KEY components of dealing with a pandemic threat is to allow public health authorities communicate freely with the public so they can change their behavior to reduce spread and to reinforce trust and REDUCE panic. This is an idea that is well reinforced with planning and research. Intervening in that to spare the markets will cause more spread, more panic, and worse economic damage.

Anyways,

apparently the hand sanitizer supply in the U.S. Is finally starting to run short. Tip: in the U.S. We aren't limited by ethanol like other countries, but we are limited by the bottles sanitizer is in. Keep your small bottles and refill with big jugs. It's the most compact way to stock up and it's possible the large refill jugs will be the only version of sanitizer available later in this crisis.

Also apparently industrial PPE availability is starting to run dry. Severe order limits on safety glasses observed while trying to place an order at work today.
情報
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2489
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:21 am

We were no longer able to order N95 for our lab. No doubt all bought up by some histrionic. I settled for a dozen N99 masks. Not as comfortable, but you have to do something. We can hardly shutdown our lab because of some unrelated hysteria.
Anyhow, I told HR and Purchasing to just buy everything they need for the next 6 months RIGHT NOW, as otherwise we might as well shutdown the business.

Edit to add: another sane Dutch opinion piece about the Coronavirus. “Better get used to and live with it, because it is here to stay”.
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achter ... ~b7ea65f4/

Use Google translate if you’re interested.
 
melpax
Posts: 2070
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:39 am

Was able to buy some sanitiser today, at a smaller IGA supermarket. It was their 'home' brand, so the Daigou wouldn't be interested in buying it to send to China.

Australia also placing a travel ban on Iran from tomorrow (1 March), and official advice for Australians looking to travel to Iran is now 'Do not travel'

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/fede ... 545ml.html

A new confirmed case on the Gold Coast from a recent traveller to Iran. This person is a beautician, and had seen up to 40 clients on Thursday before she became ill & sought medical attention..

https://www.theage.com.au/national/quee ... 545m9.html
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:54 am

Dieuwer wrote:
We were no longer able to order N95 for our lab. No doubt all bought up by some histrionic. I settled for a dozen N99 masks. Not as comfortable, but you have to do something. We can hardly shutdown our lab because of some unrelated hysteria.
Anyhow, I told HR and Purchasing to just buy everything they need for the next 6 months RIGHT NOW, as otherwise we might as well shutdown the business.

Edit to add: another sane Dutch opinion piece about the Coronavirus. “Better get used to and live with it, because it is here to stay”.
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achter ... ~b7ea65f4/

Use Google translate if you’re interested.


It'd be nice if nations and hospitals had adequately stockpiled. Also, less of this "just in time" bullshit on items that will see massive and sudden demand surges. Then no one would have to get pissy about panic buying. Our society should have been smarter than this.

I'm also going to be contacting a few people on Monday to get off their asses and prepare for disruptions to operations and supplies. So far I've been the only person lighting fires under people's asses to get prepared.
情報
 
bennett123
Posts: 10052
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:00 am

Just read Waterbomber2 post from 8 hours ago.

If the CDC are now advising against non essential travel to Italy and South Korea, wonder how soon before others follow suit.
 
bennett123
Posts: 10052
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:02 am

What would be the cost of the warehousing needed?.

Also a lot of products have set shelf lives.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1352
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:07 am

NYCVIE wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
This reflects what has been written in this thread.
The situation in Japan is heading for catastrophe and the numbers are way understated, probably not in the same dimension as those reported, by my estimates possibly already exceeding the total case count currently posted for the whole world.


What are you getting out of writing fear mongering posts like this? What estimates? From what information? Or are you just saying things?

Come on man, don't be unnecessarily misleading.


By my estimates, Japan should have about 100.000 cases by now. May seem a lot to you, but in central Tokyo, this is just a dozen blocks.

People with this thing have been in busy trains and stations, unknowingly spreading the disease.
On a good day, a single carrier can infect dozens of people just commuting to their job and back home. A week later, those dozens will in turn infect hundreds, who will infect thousands, etc...
We're already in the 4th cycle, ie the thousands infecting tens of thousands.

Hokkaido being put on a Wuhan style lockdown should give you a clue of how bad things are.

Tokyo Governor Koike said that Pm Abe's school closing request didn't come too soon, even sooner would have been better...
(source: Nihon TV on-screen)
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:25 am

bennett123 wrote:
What would be the cost of the warehousing needed?.

Also a lot of products have set shelf lives.


Items like respiratory PPE have shelf lives but they're far longer than things like medicines... It would not have been that expensive to maintain a pandemic stockpile of these things. Especially for governments and hospitals which are supposed to be looking out for people's well-being (theoretically) and to bring stability in a crisis.

BTW if the numbers I've seen are correct, France is the only country that has adequately stockpiled medical PPE. It may soon be a good time to be a French citizen. Note that they've been much calmer about restricting people's movement. They're actually prepared.
情報
 
kalvado
Posts: 2932
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:28 am

bennett123 wrote:
What would be the cost of the warehousing needed?.

Also a lot of products have set shelf lives.

Hindsight is always 20/20. Masks probably saw x100 demand growth which happened overnight. No amount of warehousing can help when a year worth of supplies is gone in a week.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2932
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:36 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Looks like the CDC has become a political tool and succumbed to hysteria.

CDC dropped the ball. There was a talk about deployment of Corona testing into flu surveyance network. Apparently it didn't happen, and by now containment likely failed in US.
I doubt that was a political thing, it is a part of "we are above this, cannot happen to us" superiority complex, which is pretty noticable in this thread. MAX situation is another example of how things work.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:38 am

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... 0M2BI?il=0

More evidence of community spread in US. At least we are testing now.
情報
 
art
Posts: 3574
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:20 am

Last post of official figures from China. Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 04 3,235
Feb 05 3,887
Feb 06 3,694
Feb 07 3,143
Feb 08 3,399
Feb 09 2,656
Feb 10 3,062
Feb 11 2,478
Feb 12 2,015

New cases of confirmed and diagnosed infections

Feb 13 15,152
Feb 14 05,090

New cases of confirmed and suspected infections

Feb 15 04,918
Feb 16 03,927
Feb 17 03,611
Feb 18 03,318
Feb 19 02,934
Feb 20 01,671
Feb 21 02,503
Feb 22 01,758
Feb 23 01,530
Feb 24 01,029
Feb 25 01,038
Feb 26 00,845
Feb 27 00,941
Feb 28 00,779
Feb 29 00,675

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 04 221,015
Feb 05 252,154
Feb 06 282,813
Feb 07 314,028
Feb 08 345,498
Feb 09 371,904
Feb 10 399,487
Feb 11 428,438
Feb 12 451,462
Feb 13 471,531
Feb 14 493,067
Feb 15 513,183
Feb 16 529,418
Feb 17 546,016
Feb 18 560,901
Feb 19 574,418
Feb 20 589,163
Feb 21 606,037
Feb 22 618,915
Feb 23 628,517
Feb 24 635,531
Feb 25 641,712
Feb 27 652,174
Feb 28 656,054
Feb 29 658,587

http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/29/c_77083.htm
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15339
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:27 am

I work in a government agency and higher officials have mandated reviews of the business continuity (BC) plans of each department to prepare for the worst from this virus. I am one of the 4-5 people in my department who participates in the maintenance of the plan for the department of about 100 people. A meeting will be held in our department Monday, March 2nd, to review our BC plans, including preparing our staff to be able to work from home as best as possible if a quarantine, how to access files remotely from our cloud servers, making sure documents can be obtained and dealing with the general disruptions. In late 2018, there was an agency-wide meeting of department BC reps going over a scenario of a major virus crises like this. Add some very real situations that have occurred at agency sites, like loss of power in a building for several days, a chemical spill in another, severe storm affects, a terror attack, and from them, weaknesses and strengths have been found in our BC plans. I presume updating and even creating BC plans will be a major agenda item in all businesses and government agencies in the next week to prepare for the potential worse affects from this Coronavirus as this could hit hard by mid-March.
 
art
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Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:42 am

Jouhou wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-usa/number-of-u-s-coronavirus-cases-of-unknown-origin-climbs-to-four-idUSKCN20M2BI?il=0

More evidence of community spread in US. At least we are testing now.


First evidence of community spread in UK.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51684624

Even if the UK can discover the source of this infection and contain the cluster, it is inevitable that more infection will arrive from abroad. A lot of UK international trade passes through Dover. Listening to a freight forwarder discussing new paperwork requirements after UK leaves the EU, he mentioned that 8,000 trucks a day pass through the port.That is 4,000 incoming truck drivers from all parts of Europe going to all parts of the UK. Heathrow handles 40 million incoming pax a year from all over the world. How long will it take before there are 50/100/250 cases here and tracking to contain becomes impractical or impossible? Not long, I think.
 
brissypete
Posts: 11
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:11 am

Personally I don't see how Japan could have 100,000 cases, seems like scaremongering like me.

Given the population of China is approx 10x Japan it seems highly unlikely. No I have no inside information I'm just looking at the available statistics. Regardless I think the situation should be clearer in Japan in a few weeks. I am following this closely as I'm currently booked to travel there in May (trip booked before this all started).

Sent from my G8141 using Tapatalk
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:30 am

You know, I just realized. Trump just changed how this disease will manifest in the US. By politicizing this in this unpredictable way, he's going to make the sparsely populated church going red states the worst hit. Meanwhile Blue states will be taking the most action to prevent it. If he left it alone, blue states would have been worst hit being the places international travellers go to and higher population densities.
情報
 
art
Posts: 3574
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:39 am

Jouhou wrote:
You know, I just realized. Trump just changed how this disease will manifest in the US. By politicizing this in this unpredictable way, he's going to make the sparsely populated church going red states the worst hit.


So best to take up atheism until this blows over? Oh, and stop believing in Trump, too, for the duration? ;)
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8456
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:47 am

I suppose CDC can replay Donald Rumsfeld's famous quote.

Now saying US has four cases of unknown origin, really, lack of survillence is a failure, not a mystery.
All posts are just opinions.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1352
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 12:07 pm

Japanese PM Abe Shinzo made an address to the nation at 6PM local time.
The address was nothing short of a war declaration, it sent shivers down my spine.
The PM was emotional towards the end of the speech.

Main points:
-PM feels horrible to take away the precious end of school year period from the children. However, the decision has been taken considering the high risk of cluster formations at schools, putting in danger the safety of the children.
-PM takes full responsibility for current actions and will now take leadership of the battle, in which he may have to make major decisions.
-PM expects a very heavy and fierce battle against "an invisible enemy", and asks the understanding and support of the entire nation. Thr government can not win this alone.
-Will enact an emergency law regarding funding for businesses from small to large
-Health centers are to stop rejecting requests for testing, if rejected, the government will mediate to make it happen
-New testing method should allow to shorten the testing time from 5-6 hours to 15-30 minutes, goal is to start testing everyone
-5000 beds ready, PM requests hospitals to start making any spare capacity available.

Source: Nihon TV http://www.news24.jp on-screen

In short, this is war people, all hands on deck.

Does this sound like a "we have 150 cases" speech, or does it sound like a "we have XXXXXX cases" one?

I'm glad that the PM finally woke up and decided to take leadership. It's a bit late but I can tell that he's taking it very seriously now.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2932
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 12:37 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Japanese PM Abe Shinzo made an address to the nation at 6PM local time.
The address was nothing short of a war declaration, it sent shivers down my spine.
The PM was emotional towards the end of the speech.

Main points:
-PM feels horrible to take away the precious end of school year period from the children. However, the decision has been taken considering the high risk of cluster formations at schools, putting in danger the safety of the children.
-PM takes full responsibility for current actions and will now take leadership of the battle, in which he may have to make major decisions.
-PM expects a very heavy and fierce battle against "an invisible enemy", and asks the understanding and support of the entire nation. Thr government can not win this alone.
-Will enact an emergency law regarding funding for businesses from small to large
-Health centers are to stop rejecting requests for testing, if rejected, the government will mediate to make it happen
-New testing method should allow to shorten the testing time from 5-6 hours to 15-30 minutes, goal is to start testing everyone
-5000 beds ready, PM requests hospitals to start making any spare capacity available.

Source: Nihon TV http://www.news24.jp on-screen

In short, this is war people, all hands on deck.

Does this sound like a "we have 150 cases" speech, or does it sound like a "we have XXXXXX cases" one?

I'm glad that the PM finally woke up and decided to take leadership. It's a bit late but I can tell that he's taking it very seriously now.

This is not China, so please do not assume any underreporting. While it is totally disproportional for China to lockout cities after a few thousand cases, Japan actions should be treated as proper responce to 100 cases of a flu-like ilness! [ /sarcasm]
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1352
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 12:57 pm

kalvado wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Japanese PM Abe Shinzo made an address to the nation at 6PM local time.
The address was nothing short of a war declaration, it sent shivers down my spine.
The PM was emotional towards the end of the speech.

Main points:
-PM feels horrible to take away the precious end of school year period from the children. However, the decision has been taken considering the high risk of cluster formations at schools, putting in danger the safety of the children.
-PM takes full responsibility for current actions and will now take leadership of the battle, in which he may have to make major decisions.
-PM expects a very heavy and fierce battle against "an invisible enemy", and asks the understanding and support of the entire nation. Thr government can not win this alone.
-Will enact an emergency law regarding funding for businesses from small to large
-Health centers are to stop rejecting requests for testing, if rejected, the government will mediate to make it happen
-New testing method should allow to shorten the testing time from 5-6 hours to 15-30 minutes, goal is to start testing everyone
-5000 beds ready, PM requests hospitals to start making any spare capacity available.

Source: Nihon TV http://www.news24.jp on-screen

In short, this is war people, all hands on deck.

Does this sound like a "we have 150 cases" speech, or does it sound like a "we have XXXXXX cases" one?

I'm glad that the PM finally woke up and decided to take leadership. It's a bit late but I can tell that he's taking it very seriously now.

This is not China, so please do not assume any underreporting. While it is totally disproportional for China to lockout cities after a few thousand cases, Japan actions should be treated as proper responce to 100 cases of a flu-like ilness! [ /sarcasm]


The underreporting is a 100% certainty as until now only people with 4 straight days of fever could even apply to get tested, resulting in many confirmed patients being tested only 2 weeks after showing symptoms.
Japan also kept and keeps its borders open to China.
This has already been reported earlier in this thread.

So not only is it underreported, it is vastly underreported. However, the Japanese government has now activated itself, so finally they can start slowing it down.

Japan is on Trump's shortlist for travel restrictions, and for good reason.
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020 ... media.html

I see the point in avoiding panic especially when it can delay a response. When a government tells you not to panic, it means that there is reason to panic.
In this case, I wish that world leaders would stop trying to prevent panic and start stopping the virus. That's essentually what PM Abe has started doing.
The numbers don't matter, what matters is that there is an action plan.
PM Abe said : "Do not be mistaken, we will defeat this and prevail".

ーThe full address:

https://youtu.be/tCFhv6qoAs8
 
art
Posts: 3574
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:48 pm

I think that this virus can no longer be contained. Some people can contract the infection without manifesting symptoms and so infect many others. The first UK case was such a case. He was spotted because he had gone to France from Singapore and stayed with people who had become infected and displayed symptoms after the carrier had returned to the UK.

I would say that the objective now, given that there is no cure or vaccine, is to try to extend the period during which the population contracts the virus. I think the focus throughout the world should now be moving to crisis management.

I think that we (at least a large chunk of humanity) are in for a rough ride for quite a time.

Mortality stats from China:

80+ years old
14.8%

70-79 years old
8.0%

60-69 years old
3.6%

50-59 years old
1.3%

40-49 years old
0.4%

30-39 years old
0.2%

20-29 years old
0.2%

10-19 years old
0.2%

0-9 years old
no fatalities

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/
 
NYCVIE
Posts: 327
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2016 11:01 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:24 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:

By my estimates, Japan should have about 100.000 cases by now. May seem a lot to you, but in central Tokyo, this is just a dozen blocks.


My point is 100,000 is a number you arbitrarily pulled out fo your head. Do you really think that Japan alone has more cases than the entire world has reported up to this point? ... Common sense people.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Does this sound like a "we have 150 cases" speech, or does it sound like a "we have XXXXXX cases" one?

I'm glad that the PM finally woke up and decided to take leadership. It's a bit late but I can tell that he's taking it very seriously now.


This sounds like a "we have hundreds of cases in our country, other countries have hundreds of cases and are handling this seriously, and we don't want to lose our $20 biilion+ Olympics" speech

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The underreporting is a 100% certainty as until now only people with 4 straight days of fever could even apply to get tested, resulting in many confirmed patients being tested only 2 weeks after showing symptoms.
Japan also kept and keeps its borders open to China.
This has already been reported earlier in this thread.

So not only is it underreported, it is vastly underreported. However, the Japanese government has now activated itself, so finally they can start slowing it down.


When I think of the word "underreport" I think of a situation like in China where they may just not report the actual number of cases they know they have. There is no evidence to support an intentional falsification of the numbers in Japan, that is a baseless accusation. Now do they probably have more cases than the confirmed ones because of the reasons you suggested - probably. But these would be cases that haven't been confirmed and by this logic any country can be "underreporting". The US would be "underreporting" also...
 
santi319
Posts: 1058
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:30 pm

NYCVIE wrote:

This sounds like a "we have hundreds of cases in our country, other countries have hundreds of cases and are handling this seriously, and we don't want to lose our $20 biilion+ Olympics" speech.

Bingo! Specially with the IOC saying the games will go on as planned:

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200228_07/

Things are bad but I don’t see the apocalypse everyone is predicting, specially when we learn that it is not the massive killer virus it is portrayed as. Coronavirus is basically a new H1N1, which we all have learned to live with.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4416
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:58 pm

Washington and Oregon have each reported one case of seemingly community spread. Do we want links for a post like this? I think it may be simpler just to report the numbers, with links for any developing clusters.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/28/cal ... ty-spread/
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
art
Posts: 3574
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 3:30 pm

santi319 wrote:
Things are bad but I don’t see the apocalypse everyone is predicting, specially when we learn that it is not the massive killer virus it is portrayed as


Mmm... The word from the health specialists in the UK is that a lot of people are expected to catch COVID-19 unless measures are taken to stop its spread, perhaps 60%-80% of the population.

Age demographic for UK

>5 million 70-79
>3 million 80+

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/281 ... on-by-age/

To be conservative, assume 20% of >8 million people aged 70+ catch the virus ie >1.6 million. To be conservative again, assume 5% die as a result (stats from China place it at >8%) then deaths = >80,000. That compares to an average of 17.000 annual deaths attributable to winter flu for the entire UK population of >65 million

Source: https://www.itv.com/news/2020-02-06/how ... sonal-flu/
 
yonahleung
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:55 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 3:58 pm

art wrote:
santi319 wrote:
Things are bad but I don’t see the apocalypse everyone is predicting, specially when we learn that it is not the massive killer virus it is portrayed as


Mmm... The word from the health specialists in the UK is that a lot of people are expected to catch COVID-19 unless measures are taken to stop its spread, perhaps 60%-80% of the population.

Age demographic for UK

>5 million 70-79
>3 million 80+

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/281 ... on-by-age/

To be conservative, assume 20% of >8 million people aged 70+ catch the virus ie >1.6 million. To be conservative again, assume 5% die as a result (stats from China place it at >8%) then deaths = >80,000. That compares to an average of 17.000 annual deaths attributable to winter flu for the entire UK population of >65 million

Source: https://www.itv.com/news/2020-02-06/how ... sonal-flu/

I suppose different people have different concepts of apocalypse. Some may think that it is only an apocalypse if it is a zombie outbreak (like Train to Busan) which has the potential to wipe out humanity and it is basically business as usual if this wipes out 1-2% of the population.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4416
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 4:18 pm

CDC-US, and likely in all countries assume the virus will eventually spread throughout their populations. Travel restrictions, quarantines, voluntary social isolations and distancing serve the purpose of delaying all of that. The goal is to avoid sudden spikes of seriously ill people overwhelming medical systems. A long slow plateau of seriously ill people can receive care, it will not crowd out treatment of other seriously ill people. Elective surgery may be postponed as needed, more home care of the moderately ill provided. The time 'bought' by this will enable discovery of better treatments of the most critically ill, more time for developing vaccines, quicker and cheaper lab testing. Think Bruce Lee, not exhibition wrestling. (we know who likes the later)
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2489
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 4:36 pm

kalvado wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Looks like the CDC has become a political tool and succumbed to hysteria.

CDC dropped the ball. There was a talk about deployment of Corona testing into flu surveyance network. Apparently it didn't happen, and by now containment likely failed in US.
I doubt that was a political thing, it is a part of "we are above this, cannot happen to us" superiority complex, which is pretty noticable in this thread. MAX situation is another example of how things work.


Political in the sense that Trump will use it as a pressure tool in his trade war instead of outright tariffs. Something like: "Let's ban all traffic to/from Europe, that will hurt them bigly...!".
 
bennett123
Posts: 10052
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:20 pm

If no tourists travel between the US and Europe, who would feel the most pain?.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2489
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:21 pm

Interesting article in Nature Biotechnology about what medications are being tested: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41587-020-00003-1
 
NYCVIE
Posts: 327
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2016 11:01 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:20 pm

NBC News reporting the first death in the US in Washington state.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/1s ... y-n1145931
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2489
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:37 pm

Monthly global car accidents deaths: > 100,000.
Total Coronavirus patient deaths: < 3000.

https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/
 
StuckinCMHland
Posts: 232
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 10:59 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:38 pm

Jouhou wrote:
You know, I just realized. Trump just changed how this disease will manifest in the US. By politicizing this in this unpredictable way, he's going to make the sparsely populated church going red states the worst hit. Meanwhile Blue states will be taking the most action to prevent it. If he left it alone, blue states would have been worst hit being the places international travelers go to and higher population densities.


With all due respect sir, the politicizing did not begin with Trump, and the weaponization of the disease didn't begin with Trump. Please show some courtesy and hide your bigotry about how 'blue states' (whichever ones they are) will do what is right, and 'red states' (whoever they are) are a bunch of backward religious types who do everything wrong. I'm not a fan of Trump, but I go to church in a rural area in a state that voted for him in 2016, what does that make me?

Can the anti-everything stuff just stop for a while in this thread? I get it, there are so many people who viscerally dislike the US President that he is now the cause of all the evil in the world and he can do nothing right at all, and everything was perfectly right with the US government until January 20, 2017. But for once can we talk about the disease without using it as a platform to air people's political grievences?
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8456
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:48 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Monthly global car accidents deaths: > 100,000.
Total Coronavirus patient deaths: < 3000.

https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/


Yes we know the stats, but road accidents are not communicable.
All posts are just opinions.
 
1989worstyear
Posts: 887
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:53 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:52 pm

With how serious this is becoming, why are private sector and non-essential public workers still required to go to work? Why are kids and young adults required to go to school?

Why not slow down everything for a month worldwide?
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
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lugie
Posts: 904
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:57 pm

art wrote:
To be conservative, assume 20% of >8 million people aged 70+ catch the virus ie >1.6 million. To be conservative again, assume 5% die as a result (stats from China place it at >8%) then deaths = >80,000. That compares to an average of 17.000 annual deaths attributable to winter flu for the entire UK population of >65 million

Source: https://www.itv.com/news/2020-02-06/how ... sonal-flu/


But how long will (would) it take to get to those >= 80,000 deaths in the high-risk demographic in the UK?
The virus has been around for over 10 weeks now and there are around 2,900 global fatalities, all in - that is, out of 7 billion. Even given current growth rates it would take several months until a single country reaches 80,000 deaths.

Let alone the time it would take to reach 80,000 and above in a susceptible demographic of 8 million people in a country like the UK with good health care and less than 30 cases as of today (with 0 fatal ones).

Yes, the virus has the potential to kill 80,000 Brits in the high-risk demographic but given the growth trend data we have it seems that this point would only be reached after the timeline for a new vaccine to be developed.
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readytotaxi
Posts: 7528
Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2006 2:09 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:58 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51690657

France bans large gatherings of more than 5,000 people and yet Disneyland Paris stays open??????
you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
Growing older, but not up.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2489
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:00 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
With how serious this is becoming, why are private sector and non-essential public workers still required to go to work? Why are kids and young adults required to go to school?

Why not slow down everything for a month worldwide?


I suggest to immediately relocate to the middle-of-nowhere and lock yourself up in a cave. Bring guns, ammo, water, and canned food.
 
bennett123
Posts: 10052
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:00 pm

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavi ... spartanntp

Seems to me that some people in the Govt are trying to play this down.
 
art
Posts: 3574
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:24 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
I suggest to immediately relocate to the middle-of-nowhere and lock yourself up in a cave. Bring guns, ammo, water, and canned food.


With isolation from others being the best way to avoid infection, US just needs 300 million or so middle-of-nowheres with 300 million or so caves and everyone will be fine and dandy! I like the idea of bringing guns and ammo, too, so that in the unlikely event a coronavirus should turn up, it can be blasted to kingdom come. ;)
 
1989worstyear
Posts: 887
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:53 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:32 pm

art wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
I suggest to immediately relocate to the middle-of-nowhere and lock yourself up in a cave. Bring guns, ammo, water, and canned food.


With isolation from others being the best way to avoid infection, US just needs 300 million or so middle-of-nowheres with 300 million or so caves and everyone will be fine and dandy! I like the idea of bringing guns and ammo, too, so that in the unlikely event a coronavirus should turn up, it can be blasted to kingdom come. ;)


I don't know if I should chuckle about this :frown:
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
Alfons
Posts: 310
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 1:17 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:42 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Monthly global car accidents deaths: > 100,000.
Total Coronavirus patient deaths: < 3000.

https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/


not the deaths are the problem of Corona. But the ones that survive but take 2-4 weeks to recover, and incapacitate the whole department they are working for further 2-4 weeks, through a virus which moves from host to host very easely and fast.

Don't just focus on individual's health, but also about trade effects on a country.

Alfons
 
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2578
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:04 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Monthly global car accidents deaths: > 100,000.
Total Coronavirus patient deaths: < 3000.

https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/


That is a 100% irrelevant comparison.

And the message you're trying to spread (this virus is not serious compared to X or Y) will end up killing more people in the long run.
 
art
Posts: 3574
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:22 pm

lugie wrote:
art wrote:
To be conservative, assume 20% of >8 million people aged 70+ catch the virus ie >1.6 million. To be conservative again, assume 5% die as a result (stats from China place it at >8%) then deaths = >80,000. That compares to an average of 17.000 annual deaths attributable to winter flu for the entire UK population of >65 million

Source: https://www.itv.com/news/2020-02-06/how ... sonal-flu/


But how long will (would) it take to get to those >= 80,000 deaths in the high-risk demographic in the UK?
The virus has been around for over 10 weeks now and there are around 2,900 global fatalities, all in - that is, out of 7 billion. Even given current growth rates it would take several months until a single country reaches 80,000 deaths.

Let alone the time it would take to reach 80,000 and above in a susceptible demographic of 8 million people in a country like the UK with good health care and less than 30 cases as of today (with 0 fatal ones).

Yes, the virus has the potential to kill 80,000 Brits in the high-risk demographic but given the growth trend data we have it seems that this point would only be reached after the timeline for a new vaccine to be developed.


Yes, it has only killed around 3,000 out of a world population of 7 billion or so but bear in mind that about 0.001% of the world population has caught it so far. If 1% of the world's population becomes infected (about 70 million) it can be expected to kill more or less 1.5 million. If 10% gets it, more or less 15 miilion deaths can be expected.

How fast will it spread? I don't know but it seems to be spreading very quickly once it gets into the population.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2932
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:40 pm

art wrote:
How fast will it spread? I don't know but it seems to be spreading very quickly once it gets into the population.

There were 84 cases outside of China on January 28; increased to 5373 on February 28 - that is 64x within a month. If an exponential growth curve persists, everyone on Earth will be sick by mid-May.
 
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Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:59 pm

StuckinCMHland wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
You know, I just realized. Trump just changed how this disease will manifest in the US. By politicizing this in this unpredictable way, he's going to make the sparsely populated church going red states the worst hit. Meanwhile Blue states will be taking the most action to prevent it. If he left it alone, blue states would have been worst hit being the places international travelers go to and higher population densities.


With all due respect sir, the politicizing did not begin with Trump, and the weaponization of the disease didn't begin with Trump. Please show some courtesy and hide your bigotry about how 'blue states' (whichever ones they are) will do what is right, and 'red states' (whoever they are) are a bunch of backward religious types who do everything wrong. I'm not a fan of Trump, but I go to church in a rural area in a state that voted for him in 2016, what does that make me?

Can the anti-everything stuff just stop for a while in this thread? I get it, there are so many people who viscerally dislike the US President that he is now the cause of all the evil in the world and he can do nothing right at all, and everything was perfectly right with the US government until January 20, 2017. But for once can we talk about the disease without using it as a platform to air people's political grievences?



I was being pretty apolitical up until he started running his mouth and silencing the CDC and lying to the public about this, if you paid any attention. He's going to kill Americans because he thinks he's saving the markets.

His supporters would murder their own families if he told them to do it. What he says is the absolute truth to them.

The mention of religious gatherings is in reference to how we could have super spreading incidents.
Last edited by Jouhou on Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
情報
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 20563
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:06 pm

NOx production way down in China. Shortages are about to happen in my opinion. Industrial processes, cars, buses, and anything that burns something produces NOx.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/image ... over-china

Lightsaber
Winter is coming.
 
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lugie
Posts: 904
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:18 pm

kalvado wrote:
art wrote:
How fast will it spread? I don't know but it seems to be spreading very quickly once it gets into the population.

There were 84 cases outside of China on January 28; increased to 5373 on February 28 - that is 64x within a month. If an exponential growth curve persists, everyone on Earth will be sick by mid-May.


That's unrealistic and you know it. The numbers (even if you don't believe the Chinese numbers exactly as they are, which I don't do either) speak a very different language.

Look at China: They had like 20 cases on January 1st, then around 9,500 by January 31st (aka an increase by 475x in a month), and just under 80,000 as of February 29th (slightly above 8x in a month).
In other words, the monthly growth factor completely imploded (February's monthly growth rate was only 1.6% of January's).

Even if we dismiss their claims that cases are plateauing and new infections even decreasing, it's not unreasonable to assume that with sufficient measures the virus expansion speed can be curbed toward a roughly linear rate.

--

I definitely don't think this should be taken lightly and I've taken precautions myself but I also don't think some of the extreme fearmongering like this (assuming a sustained infection rate of factor 64 per month infecting the entire world by May) or some other examples like the "estimation" that Japan actually has far beyond 100,000 cases is helpful to anyone in any way.
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Waterbomber2
Posts: 1352
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:50 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
With how serious this is becoming, why are private sector and non-essential public workers still required to go to work? Why are kids and young adults required to go to school?

Why not slow down everything for a month worldwide?


I suggest to immediately relocate to the middle-of-nowhere and lock yourself up in a cave. Bring guns, ammo, water, and canned food.


Sorry to burst your bubble, but China has 870 million people locked in their homes, scared to death, and not by own choice.
Some identified as infected are even being physically locked into their homes by local authorities.

Relocating to the middle-of nowhere to lock themselves up in a cave as you suggest would be a luxury compared to the actual situation over there.


lugie wrote:
kalvado wrote:
art wrote:
How fast will it spread? I don't know but it seems to be spreading very quickly once it gets into the population.

There were 84 cases outside of China on January 28; increased to 5373 on February 28 - that is 64x within a month. If an exponential growth curve persists, everyone on Earth will be sick by mid-May.


That's unrealistic and you know it. The numbers (even if you don't believe the Chinese numbers exactly as they are, which I don't do either) speak a very different language.

Look at China: They had like 20 cases on January 1st, then around 9,500 by January 31st (aka an increase by 475x in a month), and just under 80,000 as of February 29th (slightly above 8x in a month).
In other words, the monthly growth factor completely imploded (February's monthly growth rate was only 1.6% of January's).

Even if we dismiss their claims that cases are plateauing and new infections even decreasing, it's not unreasonable to assume that with sufficient measures the virus expansion speed can be curbed toward a roughly linear rate.

--

I definitely don't think this should be taken lightly and I've taken precautions myself but I also don't think some of the extreme fearmongering like this (assuming a sustained infection rate of factor 64 per month infecting the entire world by May) or some other examples like the "estimation" that Japan actually has far beyond 100,000 cases is helpful to anyone in any way.


Whether the progression of the virus in China has become linear is unknown and doubtful.
However, you need to be reminded that half of China is on lockdown. This is not the case anywhere in the world else except a few villages in Italy and Hokkaido,Japan where there is a soft lockdown.
What we have been saying here is that lockdowns and border closures are the only way to escape exponential growth of the virus, and slow it down.

I remind you that the predominant political view is that borders should remain open, with the exception of a few countries including the U.S. that are imposing wide travel restrictions.
This political view is very dangerous as it will allow exponential growth of the virus and will result in unnecessary deaths across the globe.

As for Japan having 100,000 or more cases, it's pretty realistic.
This is less than half percent of the Tokyo metro population.

Let me predict what will happen in the coming days.
The PM's recent draconian measures and address to the Nation have set the stage for allowing them to start informing the population about the true extent of the crisis. They couldn't do it until now without making the government look bad. Japan will see its 200+ infections grow very fast to thousands in the coming 1-2 weeks. This is why they're talking about "these 1-2 weeks being crucial".
Like China, they won't reveal the true total extent to avoid panic. That's unnecessary and counterproductive. But they'll reveal just enough to justify draconian measures that they will take, including shutting down public transportation, and asking the whole nation to stay home.

You can bet that Trump has been informed of the true extent by both China and Japan, which is why Japan is on the shortlist for travel restrictions despite its relatively low numbers.
They'll probably use including the Diamond Princess as an excuse to enforce the travel restriction.

During the White House press conference, Trump was querried by the media about the numbers reported by China, whether they were true.
Trump's response said it all: "President Xi is working very very hard".

The above is an opinion.

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