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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:26 pm

lugie - CDC and others do think this will spread pretty much throughout the entire human population over the next several seasons. Even with a low death rate there will be a lot of dying.
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Tugger
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:28 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
As for Japan having 100,000 or more cases, it's pretty realistic.

Again, you are making up number out of whole cloth, straight out of your imagination. With no facts to back up your statement, just "it's realalistic".

Tugg
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Dieuwer
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:40 pm

Is there any historical pandemic that has similar transmission and mortality rates as the Coronavirus?
 
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lugie
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:52 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
lugie - CDC and others do think this will spread pretty much throughout the entire human population over the next several seasons. Even with a low death rate there will be a lot of dying.


That is probably true and nowhere in my post did I claim that was an unrealistic prospect.

What is, however, is the assumption that the large exponential growth rates from the early stages of the outbreaks will remain as high and the entire human population will be infected by "mid May".
As you said, COVID-19 will probably establish itself as part of the flu season disease repertoire and at some point in the next several flu seasons it's reasonable to assume everyone will have caught it at least once.

That's a very different outlook though than claiming it will ravage the entire world within the next 10 weeks, especially because a vaccine might be ready around the end of the next flu season.
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cjg225
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:59 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Is there any historical pandemic that has similar transmission and mortality rates as the Coronavirus?

Would think that'd be difficult to ascertain given that, today, we have far better data collection and retention.
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kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:12 am

lugie wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
lugie - CDC and others do think this will spread pretty much throughout the entire human population over the next several seasons. Even with a low death rate there will be a lot of dying.


That is probably true and nowhere in my post did I claim that was an unrealistic prospect.

What is, however, is the assumption that the large exponential growth rates from the early stages of the outbreaks will remain as high and the entire human population will be infected by "mid May".
As you said, COVID-19 will probably establish itself as part of the flu season disease repertoire and at some point in the next several flu seasons it's reasonable to assume everyone will have caught it at least once.

That's a very different outlook though than claiming it will ravage the entire world within the next 10 weeks, especially because a vaccine might be ready around the end of the next flu season.

What are the mechanisms which can slow down the propagation?
Virus weakening from mutations - far from guaranteed; seasonal weakening of transmission - again, not guaranteed at all.
Sanitary and medical measures - quarantine, vaccine, monitoring - can have an effect, but again require understanding that exponent may be coming.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:34 am

lugie wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
lugie - CDC and others do think this will spread pretty much throughout the entire human population over the next several seasons. Even with a low death rate there will be a lot of dying.


That is probably true and nowhere in my post did I claim that was an unrealistic prospect.

What is, however, is the assumption that the large exponential growth rates from the early stages of the outbreaks will remain as high and the entire human population will be infected by "mid May".
As you said, COVID-19 will probably establish itself as part of the flu season disease repertoire and at some point in the next several flu seasons it's reasonable to assume everyone will have caught it at least once.

That's a very different outlook though than claiming it will ravage the entire world within the next 10 weeks, especially because a vaccine might be ready around the end of the next flu season.


We are mostly in agreement, I suspect a lot more spreading and casualties in the next year. But every month delay, the result of good public health practices, puts us closer to discovery of effective treatment. The big worry, obviously, are densely populated areas with poorly funded public health and medical facilities. These areas could hurt far worse than China. Vaccines could be a couple years away - or more.
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:51 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
CDC-US, and likely in all countries assume the virus will eventually spread throughout their populations. Travel restrictions, quarantines, voluntary social isolations and distancing serve the purpose of delaying all of that. The goal is to avoid sudden spikes of seriously ill people overwhelming medical systems. A long slow plateau of seriously ill people can receive care, it will not crowd out treatment of other seriously ill people. Elective surgery may be postponed as needed, more home care of the moderately ill provided. The time 'bought' by this will enable discovery of better treatments of the most critically ill, more time for developing vaccines, quicker and cheaper lab testing. Think Bruce Lee, not exhibition wrestling. (we know who likes the later)

I agree The goal is to isolate small populations with this illness.

China is, in my opinion, jumping the shark pushing everyone back to work. This link has a huge amount of economic impact data.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/chi ... ack-normal

Basically, China chose money over people. If you dive into the link, the people in China seem to be hesitating going back to work. Do they trust Xi's numbers? Hint, I don't. I do not believe they are close. Otherwise, the internet in Wuhan would be far more open (shout out good news).

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art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:29 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
The big worry, obviously, are densely populated areas with poorly funded public health and medical facilities. These areas could hurt far worse than China.


The UK health system is a bit like Heathrow airport - Heathrow as standard runs at 98% or more of maximum capacity. A major outbreak of COVID-19 would have a similar effect on the UK health system to the effect a sudden need for 10%/20%/30% more landings and takeoffs would have at Heathrow. Impossible to handle.

I don't know how much spare health treatment capacity there is in most countries but I can easily omagine them being overwhelmed by a pandemic.
Last edited by art on Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:31 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Is there any historical pandemic that has similar transmission and mortality rates as the Coronavirus?


The Spanish Flu. And at the time our understanding and ability to fight flu viruses was about on par with our capabilities now with coronaviruses, so it's a fair comparison. I think this has a much higher R0 though.
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santi319
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:34 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Is there any historical pandemic that has similar transmission and mortality rates as the Coronavirus?

It seems everyone forgot about H1N1 all of the sudden...

In 2009, a novel H1N1 influenza (flu) virus emerged to cause the first flu pandemic in 40 years. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic was estimated to be associated with 151,700 to 575,400 deaths worldwide during the first year it circulated. [1] This H1N1 virus has continued to circulate seasonally to this day. CDC and its many partners have made great strides in the fields of influenza surveillance, prevention, and treatment since 2009, benefiting both the annual response to seasonal flu epidemics, as well as the global capacity to respond to the next pandemic.


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

We will learn to live with Coronavirus just like we learned to live with H1N1. The media reaction is absolutely crazy though..
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:42 am

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/0 ... /23937129/

All a hoax. fake news, a conspiracy. Appalling statements by him and his son.
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JetBuddy
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:49 am

WarRI1 wrote:
https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/02/29/trump-calls-coronavirus-hysteria-the-democrats-new-hoax/23937129/

All a hoax. fake news, a conspiracy. Appalling statements by him and his son.


Relax.

That story is literally fake news. Trump was talking about every hoax the democrats have tried so far, Russia, Ukraine and so on. And then he mentioned their recent attacks against him about how his administration was handling the virus.

Then CNN and WAPO decided to clip a few seconds from his speech, and present it as if he was saying the virus itself was a hoax.

But if you lean too far in a certain direction, you'll never believe the real news anyway.
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:56 am

JetBuddy wrote:
WarRI1 wrote:
https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/02/29/trump-calls-coronavirus-hysteria-the-democrats-new-hoax/23937129/

All a hoax. fake news, a conspiracy. Appalling statements by him and his son.


Relax.

That story is literally fake news. Trump was talking about every hoax the democrats have tried so far, Russia, Ukraine and so on. And then he mentioned their recent attacks against him about how his administration was handling the virus.

Then CNN and WAPO decided to clip a few seconds from his speech, and present it as if he was saying the virus itself was a hoax.

But if you lean too far in a certain direction, you'll never believe the real news anyway.




Are you drinking the Kool Ade or what? I think you should catch up on this mans rantings and his son Don Jr. also. Did you read or see that? I hope you deny his son's statement like you just tried to deny his Father's, then we can write you off as a bot.
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wingman
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:18 am

JetBuddy, here's the speech itself with full context before and after. I want you to listen to this and then come back and explain how you think Trump did not directly state that the Coronavirus is a "Dem Hoax". Good luck. And all these years I thought you were one of the coherent ones on this site.
http://www.vox.com/2020/2/29/21159294/t ... irst-death
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:39 am

wingman wrote:
JetBuddy, here's the speech itself with full context before and after. I want you to listen to this and then come back and explain how you think Trump did not directly state that the Coronavirus is a "Dem Hoax". Good luck. And all these years I thought you were one of the coherent ones on this site.
http://www.vox.com/2020/2/29/21159294/t ... irst-death



:checkmark: It would seem that a ton of people are not coherent when it comes to this madman and family on this site and elsewhere. I cannot wait to (not) see a reply which is a tactic of the right wing, no explanation, ignore. So called Fake News is true, ignore, ignore, but,but,but. I was just accused of that the other day by a trump guy when I did not answer his question to his satisfaction, which I did answer to mine of course.
Last edited by WarRI1 on Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:48 am

Dr. Massimo Galli, head of infectious diseases at a Milan hospital treating Covid19 patients:

"I am afraid that we will have to expect other cases, probably many many other cases in the next weeks."

Source: video on http://www.cnn.com
Families cope with coronavirus lockdown across Italy (02:46)


The same doctor in an interview said that:

-panic is not necessary as it may negatively influence the management of an already challenging situation
-lab people in Lombardy hospitals have worked days and nights without sleep to return as many lab tests as possible
-the fact is that this is not a common flu. This is a new illness that is capable of causing serious problems, especially to many elderly persons. It needs to be contained and should not be underestimated.
-the pill used as medicine in Lombardy is to apply restrictions on people, a bitter pill to swallow that is causing a lot of criticism, but it is absolutely necessary.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_367gz8KF0
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:50 am

Here's what Trump said:

"Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus. Coronavirus. They’re politicizing it. We did one of the great jobs, you say, “How’s President Trump doing?” They go, “Oh, not good, not good.” They have no clue; they don’t have any clue. They can’t even count their votes in Iowa. They can’t count their votes!

One of my people came up to me and said, “Mr. President, they tried to beat you on Russia, Russia, Russia. That didn’t work out too well. They couldn’t do it. They tried the impeachment hoax. That was on a perfect conversation. They tried anything, they tried it over and over. They’ve been doing it since you got in. It’s all turning, they lost, it’s all turning. Think of it. And this is their new hoax.”

But you know, we did something that’s been pretty amazing. We have 15 people in this massive country, and because of the fact that we won early, we won early, we could’ve had a lot more than that. We’re doing great. Our country is doing so great. We are so unified. We are so unified."


That is word for word what Trump said. He's NOT saying the Coronavirus is a hoax.

And if you're going to link to far left VOX, I can link to Daily Wire with the same amount of of reliability.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/media-cl ... ually-said
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:54 am

JetBuddy wrote:
Here's what Trump said:

"Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus. Coronavirus. They’re politicizing it. We did one of the great jobs, you say, “How’s President Trump doing?” They go, “Oh, not good, not good.” They have no clue; they don’t have any clue. They can’t even count their votes in Iowa. They can’t count their votes!

One of my people came up to me and said, “Mr. President, they tried to beat you on Russia, Russia, Russia. That didn’t work out too well. They couldn’t do it. They tried the impeachment hoax. That was on a perfect conversation. They tried anything, they tried it over and over. They’ve been doing it since you got in. It’s all turning, they lost, it’s all turning. Think of it. And this is their new hoax.”

But you know, we did something that’s been pretty amazing. We have 15 people in this massive country, and because of the fact that we won early, we won early, we could’ve had a lot more than that. We’re doing great. Our country is doing so great. We are so unified. We are so unified."


That is word for word what Trump said. He's NOT saying the Coronavirus is a hoax.

And if you're going to link to far left VOX, I can link to Daily Wire with the same amount of of reliability.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/media-cl ... ually-said



I will act like trump and henchman, fake news, fake news, but, but, but. I suggest you read the title of the link or article also again and again. Coronavirus Hysteria a Democratic Hoax.
Last edited by WarRI1 on Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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JetBuddy
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:01 am

wingman wrote:
JetBuddy, here's the speech itself with full context before and after. I want you to listen to this and then come back and explain how you think Trump did not directly state that the Coronavirus is a "Dem Hoax". Good luck. And all these years I thought you were one of the coherent ones on this site.
http://www.vox.com/2020/2/29/21159294/t ... irst-death


I have listened to it. I have read it. And Trump is not calling the Coronavirus a hoax.

It's not easy defending someone who says a lot of weird stuff. So I usually don't, and I have directed criticism against Trump in this thread myself.

But some things need to be called out. This whole media frenzy we witnessed today is based on a false premise.

This is word for word what he said:

"Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus. Coronavirus. They’re politicizing it. We did one of the great jobs, you say, “How’s President Trump doing?” They go, “Oh, not good, not good.” They have no clue; they don’t have any clue. They can’t even count their votes in Iowa. They can’t count their votes!

One of my people came up to me and said, “Mr. President, they tried to beat you on Russia, Russia, Russia. That didn’t work out too well. They couldn’t do it. They tried the impeachment hoax. That was on a perfect conversation. They tried anything, they tried it over and over. They’ve been doing it since you got in. It’s all turning, they lost, it’s all turning. Think of it. And this is their new hoax.”

But you know, we did something that’s been pretty amazing. We have 15 people in this massive country, and because of the fact that we won early, we won early, we could’ve had a lot more than that. We’re doing great. Our country is doing so great. We are so unified. We are so unified."


.. and I thought you were one of the reasonable ones as well. Have a great evening.
 
wingman
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:02 am

The source doesn’t matter one bit, it contains the actual speech verbatim with video! He’s saying the virus is a Dem Hoax by equating it to the Russia hoax for which a slew of his employees have now gone to prison for. Are you for real? You’ve literally just exposed yourself as an incompetent buffoon to all of us.
 
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WarRI1
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:04 am

JetBuddy wrote:
wingman wrote:
JetBuddy, here's the speech itself with full context before and after. I want you to listen to this and then come back and explain how you think Trump did not directly state that the Coronavirus is a "Dem Hoax". Good luck. And all these years I thought you were one of the coherent ones on this site.
http://www.vox.com/2020/2/29/21159294/t ... irst-death


I have listened to it. I have read it. And Trump is not calling the Coronavirus a hoax.

It's not easy defending someone who says a lot of weird stuff. So I usually don't, and I have directed criticism against Trump in this thread myself.

But some things need to be called out. This whole media frenzy we witnessed today is based on a false premise.

This is word for word what he said:

"Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus. Coronavirus. They’re politicizing it. We did one of the great jobs, you say, “How’s President Trump doing?” They go, “Oh, not good, not good.” They have no clue; they don’t have any clue. They can’t even count their votes in Iowa. They can’t count their votes!

One of my people came up to me and said, “Mr. President, they tried to beat you on Russia, Russia, Russia. That didn’t work out too well. They couldn’t do it. They tried the impeachment hoax. That was on a perfect conversation. They tried anything, they tried it over and over. They’ve been doing it since you got in. It’s all turning, they lost, it’s all turning. Think of it. And this is their new hoax.”

But you know, we did something that’s been pretty amazing. We have 15 people in this massive country, and because of the fact that we won early, we won early, we could’ve had a lot more than that. We’re doing great. Our country is doing so great. We are so unified. We are so unified."


.. and I thought you were one of the reasonable ones as well. Have a great evening.


He did call the Coronavirus Hysteria a Democratic Hoax, good enough for me.
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:25 am

JetBuddy wrote:
wingman wrote:
JetBuddy, here's the speech itself with full context before and after. I want you to listen to this and then come back and explain how you think Trump did not directly state that the Coronavirus is a "Dem Hoax". Good luck. And all these years I thought you were one of the coherent ones on this site.
http://www.vox.com/2020/2/29/21159294/t ... irst-death


I have listened to it. I have read it. And Trump is not calling the Coronavirus a hoax.

It's not easy defending someone who says a lot of weird stuff. So I usually don't, and I have directed criticism against Trump in this thread myself.

But some things need to be called out. This whole media frenzy we witnessed today is based on a false premise.

This is word for word what he said:

"Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus. Coronavirus. They’re politicizing it. We did one of the great jobs, you say, “How’s President Trump doing?” They go, “Oh, not good, not good.” They have no clue; they don’t have any clue. They can’t even count their votes in Iowa. They can’t count their votes!

One of my people came up to me and said, “Mr. President, they tried to beat you on Russia, Russia, Russia. That didn’t work out too well. They couldn’t do it. They tried the impeachment hoax. That was on a perfect conversation. They tried anything, they tried it over and over. They’ve been doing it since you got in. It’s all turning, they lost, it’s all turning. Think of it. And this is their new hoax.”

But you know, we did something that’s been pretty amazing. We have 15 people in this massive country, and because of the fact that we won early, we won early, we could’ve had a lot more than that. We’re doing great. Our country is doing so great. We are so unified. We are so unified."


.. and I thought you were one of the reasonable ones as well. Have a great evening.


His word salad aside, in what logical connection do you think he finished that barely coherent spiel with: ‘and this is their new hoax’. Pronoun ‘this’ replaced which subject? Inquiring minds would love to know.

Also curious why the usual defenders are not jumping on Don Jr for his ridiculous inflammatory remark on the crisis:

'For them to take a pandemic and seemingly hope that it comes here and kills millions of people so that they can end Donald Trump's streak of winning is a new level of sickness,' the young Trump said Friday morning on 'Fox & Friends.'

There is not one official or pundit who has claimed they ‘hope millions die’ to bring down his father. It’s all in their hair product-heavy heads.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... Trump.html
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1989worstyear
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:33 am

santi319 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Is there any historical pandemic that has similar transmission and mortality rates as the Coronavirus?

It seems everyone forgot about H1N1 all of the sudden...

In 2009, a novel H1N1 influenza (flu) virus emerged to cause the first flu pandemic in 40 years. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic was estimated to be associated with 151,700 to 575,400 deaths worldwide during the first year it circulated. [1] This H1N1 virus has continued to circulate seasonally to this day. CDC and its many partners have made great strides in the fields of influenza surveillance, prevention, and treatment since 2009, benefiting both the annual response to seasonal flu epidemics, as well as the global capacity to respond to the next pandemic.


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

We will learn to live with Coronavirus just like we learned to live with H1N1. The media reaction is absolutely crazy though..


I guess the big difference is: there's a a vaccine for H1N1.

I do agree with you though that many news outlets are trying to milk this crisis for ratings and ad revenue though, mostly the usual culprits (Daily Fail, NY Post, etc...).
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yonahleung
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:50 am

1989worstyear wrote:
santi319 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Is there any historical pandemic that has similar transmission and mortality rates as the Coronavirus?

It seems everyone forgot about H1N1 all of the sudden...

In 2009, a novel H1N1 influenza (flu) virus emerged to cause the first flu pandemic in 40 years. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic was estimated to be associated with 151,700 to 575,400 deaths worldwide during the first year it circulated. [1] This H1N1 virus has continued to circulate seasonally to this day. CDC and its many partners have made great strides in the fields of influenza surveillance, prevention, and treatment since 2009, benefiting both the annual response to seasonal flu epidemics, as well as the global capacity to respond to the next pandemic.


https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

We will learn to live with Coronavirus just like we learned to live with H1N1. The media reaction is absolutely crazy though..


I guess the big difference is: there's a a vaccine for H1N1.

I do agree with you though that many news outlets are trying to milk this crisis for ratings and ad revenue though, mostly the usual culprits (Daily Fail, NY Post, etc...).

H1N1 had a very effective medicine: Tamiflu.
Mortality rate of H1N1 was less than 0.5% (milder than the seasonal flu)
End of comparison.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:25 am

The flu also only makes you sick for a week.
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olle
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:10 am

Big impact on china production and decreased climate impact,


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51691967
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:15 am

Most Western European countries now have cases. We have reached a pandemic, thanks to our idiotic leaders who have insisted on keeping borders open.
Now, because of those stupid decisions, we have to lock ourselves into our homes, protect our elderly, worry about our income and everything we have worked hard for.
Politicians will have to answer for this major failure.

The US has the unique opportunity to protect themselves from this and maintain a working domestic economy. Close your borders dear friends from across the Atlantic, do it now.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:37 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Most Western European countries now have cases. We have reached a pandemic, thanks to our idiotic leaders who have insisted on keeping borders open.
Now, because of those stupid decisions, we have to lock ourselves into our homes, protect our elderly, worry about our income and everything we have worked hard for.
Politicians will have to answer for this major failure.

The US has the unique opportunity to protect themselves from this and maintain a working domestic economy. Close your borders dear friends from across the Atlantic, do it now.


There is community spread happening in the US now, what are you talking about? Where are you getting your information?

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/02 ... regon.html
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art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:52 am

Italy Feb 29

The number of cases reached 1,128 since the start of the epidemic, up from 888 on Friday, although 52 percent of those tested show few to no symptoms, the Italian health authorities said


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/ ... 14773.html

With over 50% of people having little reason to think they have COVID-19 when they do, I would say that it is inevitable that major epidemics will quickly develop throughout the world. Human movement from A to B more or less guarantees that.

Jouhou wrote:
The flu also only makes you sick for a week.

Whereas recovery from this virus seems to take much longer, certainly if you end up with serious complications, so its treatment per patient is likely to demand far more hospital resources than annual flu.
 
santi319
Posts: 1057
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:21 am

Perhaps this could be expedited due to the urgency of the situation?

https://time.com/5790545/first-covid-19-vaccine/

Moderna Therapeutics, a biotech company based in Cambridge, Mass., has shipped the first batches of its COVID-19 vaccine. The vaccine was created just 42 days after the genetic sequence of the COVID_19 virus, called SARS-CoV-2, was released by Chinese researchers in mid-January. The first vials were sent to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in Bethesda, MD, which will ready the vaccine for human testing as early as April.

NIH scientists also began testing an antiviral drug called remdesivir that had been developed for Ebola, on a patient infected with SARS-CoV-2. The trial is the first to test a drug for treating COVID-19, and will be led by a team at the University of Nebraska Medical Center. The first patient to volunteer for the ground-breaking study is a passenger who was brought back to the US after testing positive for the disease aboard the Diamond Princess. Others diagnosed with COVID-19 who have been hospitalized will also be part of the study.

Remdesivir showed encouraging results among animals infected with two related coronaviruses, one responsible for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and another for causing Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Volunteers will be randomly assigned to receive either the drug or a placebo intravenously for 10 days, and they will have blood tests and nose and throat swabs taken every two days to track the amount of virus in their bodies. Even if the drug shows some efficacy in keeping blood levels of SARS-CoV-2 from growing, it could help to contain spread of the infection.
 
NIKV69
Posts: 13686
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:27 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:32 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:

The US has the unique opportunity to protect themselves from this and maintain a working domestic economy. Close your borders dear friends from across the Atlantic, do it now.


I can’t believe we brought 40 some odd people back here that were infected from that cruise ship.
I am the Googlizer!!!
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1347
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:37 am

santi319 wrote:
Perhaps this could be expedited due to the urgency of the situation?

https://time.com/5790545/first-covid-19-vaccine/

Moderna Therapeutics, a biotech company based in Cambridge, Mass., has shipped the first batches of its COVID-19 vaccine. The vaccine was created just 42 days after the genetic sequence of the COVID_19 virus, called SARS-CoV-2, was released by Chinese researchers in mid-January. The first vials were sent to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in Bethesda, MD, which will ready the vaccine for human testing as early as April.

NIH scientists also began testing an antiviral drug called remdesivir that had been developed for Ebola, on a patient infected with SARS-CoV-2. The trial is the first to test a drug for treating COVID-19, and will be led by a team at the University of Nebraska Medical Center. The first patient to volunteer for the ground-breaking study is a passenger who was brought back to the US after testing positive for the disease aboard the Diamond Princess. Others diagnosed with COVID-19 who have been hospitalized will also be part of the study.

Remdesivir showed encouraging results among animals infected with two related coronaviruses, one responsible for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and another for causing Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Volunteers will be randomly assigned to receive either the drug or a placebo intravenously for 10 days, and they will have blood tests and nose and throat swabs taken every two days to track the amount of virus in their bodies. Even if the drug shows some efficacy in keeping blood levels of SARS-CoV-2 from growing, it could help to contain spread of the infection.


It depends on how effective the vaccine would be, it's not like any vaccine will do.
At my workplace, most people who got a flu shot became very sick days after the shot was administered, the rest of us who know better did not or had very short downtime.

Rabies and tetanus vaccines are known to be very effective when administered prior to the appearance of symptoms, but then again influenza vaccines are mostly useless anytime.
It's not that easy to develop a vaccine and then it may not be effective for someone who is already infected.

Antiviral drugs halt the replication of virus cells and may be more promising in treating already infected patients.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 12673
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:44 am

NIKV69 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

The US has the unique opportunity to protect themselves from this and maintain a working domestic economy. Close your borders dear friends from across the Atlantic, do it now.


I can’t believe we brought 40 some odd people back here that were infected from that cruise ship.


45 was asleep at the switch - probably playing golf. It was all over the news in Japan and elsewhere that the State Department was arranging their return, especially after the first batch of folks were flown out on Kalitta, so it's not like the WH had no idea what was going on. Also, administration officials themselves were involved in the return, it was actually the experts at CDC who advised against it:

The State Department and a Trump administration health official wanted to send the passengers home on the chartered flight out of Japan anyway, the Post reported. CDC officials, however, warned against evacuating the infected, due to concerns over re-exposing healthy passengers to the virus. When State Department and administration officials decided to go through with the evacuation, the CDC's principal deputy director, Anne Schuchat, requested not to be included in the news release announcing the decision.

"CDC did weigh in on this and explicitly recommended against it," Schuchat wrote in an email to the State Department, a HHS official told the Post. "We should not be mentioned as having been consulted as it begs the question of what was our advice."


https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus ... dvice.html

This is why I have always said the total unprofessionalism of this WH is why these people can't be in power - they turn everything they touch into a shitshow.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
art
Posts: 3574
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:02 pm

Japan Health Ministry total reported infections (exc Diamond Princess and govt chartered flights)

Feb 29 228
Feb 28 219
Feb 27 200
Feb 26 175
Feb 25 157

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020 ... -2020.html

Is it possible that Japan is really managing to almost stop the virus spreading?
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 12673
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:04 pm

art wrote:
Japan Health Ministry total reported infections (exc Diamond Princess and govt chartered flights)

Feb 29 228
Feb 28 219
Feb 27 200
Feb 26 175
Feb 25 157

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020 ... -2020.html

Is it possible that Japan is really managing to almost stop the virus spreading?


It's not possible. NHK was reporting all week that the government was only testing about 900 people per day when they had capacity to test 3,800. We'll have a better idea of the picture in a couple weeks.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1347
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:14 pm

Dr. Galli HOD infectious diseases of the hospital in Milan in charge of the Covid19 response has given a very honest and worrysome view of what's going on in Northern Italy.

We are in full emergency, yes I'm worried.

What we feared but hoped would not happen has happened. The virus has eluded our monitoring, surveillance. This thing was here since January.
Something bad is happening, also in France and Germany. We are dealing with a real tsunami of care-intensive new patients.

Some people compare this to influenza, in order to avoid panic perhaps, but those people are not considering the potential of this virus. In 42 years I have never seen an influenza that has the power to overwhelm the infectious disease departments at hospitals like this. Quite frankly, we are in an emergency situation from a health care organisation perspective.
From what I see, all these cases are from early February, some even from January.
It's a very slowly developping disease, which may only manifest in its worst form 7-10 days from the appearance of the first symptoms, ie the tip of the iceberg phenomenon.
Even the best medical organisations in the world like ours may not be able to face this impact.

The majority of patients can heal but there are many, too many to be assisted. Until now the metropolitan area's have been spared, let's hope thay it stays that way.

https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_mar ... refresh_ce
 
art
Posts: 3574
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:37 pm

The majority of patients can heal but there are many, too many to be assisted.

I think that health systems may have to ration treatment. The question could be whether to treat the acutely ill with a poor prognosis (eg people over 70 or with existing illness) or to apply resources to patients with a better prognosis.
 
N757ST
Posts: 1033
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2002 6:00 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:21 pm

I think the biggest problem here is we don’t know N, IE the number that actually have this virus. The metro of Wuhan has 30+ million with only 80,000 infected? South Korea is very dense and only 3000? We really don’t know the severity of this thing without having a real view of the number truly infected. For all we know it could be that N is really 10x higher then then thought, and we are essentially counting only the equivalent of the most severe of flu patients and hospitalizations, which would skew flu outcomes much higher if that were the case. I’m by no means trying to downplay the severity of what might be coming, just that our ignorance in this matter means that we really don’t have a clue what to expect.
 
User avatar
readytotaxi
Posts: 7526
Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2006 2:09 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:25 pm

I understand the argument about using treatment wisely but it is still a life to be saved at the end of the day. Not a choice I would like to make someone pick.
you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
Growing older, but not up.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2929
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:39 pm

N757ST wrote:
I think the biggest problem here is we don’t know N, IE the number that actually have this virus. The metro of Wuhan has 30+ million with only 80,000 infected? South Korea is very dense and only 3000? We really don’t know the severity of this thing without having a real view of the number truly infected. For all we know it could be that N is really 10x higher then then thought, and we are essentially counting only the equivalent of the most severe of flu patients and hospitalizations, which would skew flu outcomes much higher if that were the case. I’m by no means trying to downplay the severity of what might be coming, just that our ignorance in this matter means that we really don’t have a clue what to expect.

Latest news is that there is likely an ongoing undetected breakout in NW US, doesn't look like hospitals are beyond their capacity though
 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2578
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:39 pm

Some news out of Norway:

17 people infected.

5 of the people are staff (doctors, nurses) at the Opthalmology Ward (eye ward) at Ullevål Hospital in Oslo. 50 of the staff at the hospital are in quarantine, and more than 200 patients have been contacted for Coronavirus checks.

In Norwegian:
https://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/i/O ... al-sykehus

And some news from Sweden Institute of Public Health:

Det nya coronaviruset tycks inte spridas av symptomfria barn, säger Folkhälsomyndigheten till Sveriges Radio.

Detta med anledning av de röster som höjts om att barn som besökt drabbade områden ska stanna hemma från skolan.

– Vi ser inga uppgifter på att det finns smitta från barn... Det är inte barnen som driver den här infektionen, säger Karin Tegmark Wisell, myndighetens chef för mikrobiologi till radion och hänvisar till en ny studie från WHO och Kina.


Meaning: "The Novel Coronavirus seems not to be spreading via symptom-free children. We don't see any evidence that there's contamination from children. It's not the children who are driving this infection, according to Karin Teqmark Wisell, chief of microbiology, and is pointing to a new study by WHO and China."
 
art
Posts: 3574
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:07 pm

12 new cases announced in UK. I (currently in UK) await what I think is inevitable. I need rthe services of a hospital on a regular basis but will not be surprised if my treatment is subject to postponement due to the urgency of dealing with COVID-19.

Oh well, c'est la vie. Or perhaps c'est la mort.
Last edited by art on Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8447
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:14 pm

N757ST wrote:
I think the biggest problem here is we don’t know N, IE the number that actually have this virus.


It is beyond the containment stage, everyone will be exposed, most will be a-OK. I think the statement by the Swedish medical department head a few days back is true.

With the rising number of infections and recoveries, stats will get better. Just like IFSD stats, fly lot more hours, shutdown stats go down.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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DeltaMD90
Posts: 8928
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:56 pm

I'm really sorry for the noob question, I actually am keeping up with this thread and have read probably 95%+ of the posts, but please help me understand.

I'm talking with an ex-pat friend of mine in Thailand (young, healthy American) and he's saying that the coronavirus virus is mostly hype. The common flu kills more people every year, it's just as contagious, only killing old/unhealthy people, etc.

I'm pretty sure he's wrong or missing something, but I guess I don't fully understand this virus. What am I missing?
 
Alfons
Posts: 310
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 1:17 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:09 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Sorry to burst your bubble, but China has 870 million people locked in their homes, scared to death, and not by own choice.


Really? I don't think that 870 million people are locked at home in China. Please be more precise, and factual.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN2081DB

Waterbomber2 wrote:
As for Japan having 100,000 or more cases, it's pretty realistic.


realistic means close to the truth. Can you bring up a source which underlines this truth?
Please offer more factual related information than wild suggestions.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Most Western European countries now have cases. We have reached a pandemic, thanks to our idiotic leaders who have insisted on keeping borders open.


We are not. Switzerland has 22 cases as of today Sunday. They are all people who came (work, holiday) from Italy. All their contacts since then have been put on quarantine. Daniel Koch from the Swiss organ of communicative diseases says that until today there has been no proven infection from inside the country. We have no Pandemy.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The US has the unique opportunity to protect themselves from this and maintain a working domestic economy. Close your borders dear friends from across the Atlantic, do it now.


Will be difficult, because #1 you can not sustain a working domestic economy in a globalized world by going full isolationistic. #2, you can close highway, railway and landway borders, but not green borders. This would destroy at a long term any countries' econonmy and will make the population go against the government if salaries will stop coming in.

You can not avoid the world population to get the Coronavirus. We will all get it. The only thing you can do is to win time until a vaccine is here, but in a balanced way without to disrupt the economy. Needs a balance.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
It depends on how effective the vaccine would be, it's not like any vaccine will do.
At my workplace, most people who got a flu shot became very sick days after the shot was administered, the rest of us who know better did not or had very short downtime.


This is normal and known for vaccines. But it's still very effective after the first reaction is gone for any consecutive real infections. It WILL do.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Rabies and tetanus vaccines are known to be very effective when administered prior to the appearance of symptoms, but then again influenza vaccines are mostly useless anytime.


Source please that influenza vaccines are useless?

the reason of the global reaction is that this mild virus can affect the economy, as it takes double or triple the amount of time for an infected to recover compared to the flu, and can diminish the effectivity of a work department due its fast incubation time of 2 - 14 days. Regarding the risk with elderlies with a serious pre-disease, the same applies to the Influenza. The little suburb villages of northern Italy has one of the oldest average population... .

Amazing what kind of mindsets a virus topic can bring out.

Alfons
 
kalvado
Posts: 2929
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:19 pm

Alfons wrote:
Source please that influenza vaccines are useless?

Average efficiency is well below 50%. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/p ... mates.html
Interestingly enough, EU policies on flu vaccinations are totally different from US..
 
kalvado
Posts: 2929
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:46 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
I'm really sorry for the noob question, I actually am keeping up with this thread and have read probably 95%+ of the posts, but please help me understand.

I'm talking with an ex-pat friend of mine in Thailand (young, healthy American) and he's saying that the coronavirus virus is mostly hype. The common flu kills more people every year, it's just as contagious, only killing old/unhealthy people, etc.

I'm pretty sure he's wrong or missing something, but I guess I don't fully understand this virus. What am I missing?

There is some truth in that. It appears the virus grows less aggressive as it spreads; which is somewhat expected. The overall effect of nCoV can (and I assume will) be higher than that of seasonal flu at the end of the day.
Yes, mostly older and weaker will suffer - but would that make you feel easy when your (grand)parents are concerned and - as suggested above- refused care in case of healthcare system overload? It is not Spanish flu of 1918, as that killed a tot of middle-aged people.
And keep in mind - there is still a chance things take a wrong turn.
 
Alfons
Posts: 310
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 1:17 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:48 pm

kalvado wrote:
Alfons wrote:
Source please that influenza vaccines are useless?

Average efficiency is well below 50%. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/p ... mates.html
Interestingly enough, EU policies on flu vaccinations are totally different from US..


Well, that's not what could sound as "useless". Thanks for the link, will be interesting to read how they define efficiency. Vaccines are known that they don't stop you from completely get a virus reaction in the body, but they make the impact to be of very mild nature. Still, you also have those seasons where the early produced vaccine hasn't "hit" the right viruses. What I think wouldn't be a problem with the Coronavirus, as it's already here.
 
art
Posts: 3574
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:50 pm

kalvado wrote:
Alfons wrote:
Source please that influenza vaccines are useless?

Average efficiency is well below 50%. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/p ... mates.html
Interestingly enough, EU policies on flu vaccinations are totally different from US..


I believe that many months before the flu season starts a bunch of people sit down and guess (informedly and intelligently) which strain(s) of influenza should be targetted by a vaccine. Why? It takes months to organise production then it takes time to administer the vaccine. If a different strain of influenza becomes prevalent, I guess vaccination may offer limited protection.

I guess this problem should not exist with novel coronavirus. Which virus to target is known 100%.

Of course, if novel coronavirus wants to be difficult, it could mutate after millions of doses of vaccine have been produced. It's a nasty virus, so I would not be surprised if it stooped to that sort of behaviour!

PS Sorry, just seen that Alfons was making a similar point while I was in composition mode
Last edited by art on Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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