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Waterbomber2
Posts: 1352
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:28 pm

Japan is not actively looking for cases.
This is confirmed by the below map, showing that in the 10 days between Feb. 17 and 26th, only 352 tests had been taken in Tokyo, about 300 in Chiba and 822 in Kanagawa. The 822 from Kanagawa may include tests taken from people on the Diamond Princess in the port of Yokohama, Kanagawa.

Over the 10 days, only 4200 tests had been taken, an average of just 400 per day.

Image

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202003 ... 61000.html

This is outrageous, even the NHK (national media) is reporting on this after carrying their own investigation.
 
melpax
Posts: 2070
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:34 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
A local report from Washington State, USA. Our Gov Inslee declared a state of emergency on Saturday, well all Costco's on Sunday were mobbed like it was Black Friday. Some stores had special cashier lines just for toilet paper. For those not familiar with Costco, they usually carry things in bulk sizes - its a 30 roll bale.

I went to Costco at 1 PM today, usually close to a ghost town but the lot was full. Carts going by with 6, 7 bales, everyone has at least one, and paper towels, napkins?!, and bales of Kleenex. When the store opened at 9, they had just unloaded an entire semi-trailer of toilet paper and it was gone. There was some Charmin across the aisle but the pile was getting smaller by the minute. What does one do with 180 rolls of toilet paper for a family of 4. We get winter storms here with the pre-panic hoarding, similar this time but calm, like being contestants in a reality TV show.


Same thing has happened here in Australia, most supermarkets in Melbourne have run out of toilet paper, long life pantry items like rice, pasta, canned items, and powdered & long-life milk are also flying off the shelves. Neighbours went to the local Costco on the weekend, they gave up as they couldn't even get inside!

The PM has spoken with management of the 2 largest supermarket chains about the shortages....

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/fede ... 546hm.html
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
kalvado
Posts: 2932
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:10 pm

Aesma wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
I thought Norway has one of the best healthcare systems in the world, this guy was a doctor, imagine someone who isn't.

One thing this crisis is exposing is the myths that all healthcare systems except the US are better. Turns out no system is perfect.


You and casinterest seem to be under the impression that there is a cheap, readily available and reliable test for this, but that's not the case (yet).

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/02/heal ... g-cdc.html

Whenever I talk with biochemist friends about PCR test, it is invariably "well, not really a big deal, just get more primers". Not really cheap, but cheaper than handling epidemic.
It is totally possible that one of primers got hit by mutations, but that is not the reason to DENY testing. Equipment is pretty standard, it is primer test kit - which CDC supposingly sent out to many labs - which is virus-specific. They are talking about "permission to test", which is totally strange. Certifying results, maybe - but even then, it is bureaucracy defeating urgency.
It really looks as if CDC was saving their resources in case of actual epidemics - and now we have it uncontrolled.
 
N757ST
Posts: 1033
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:18 pm

Again, not trying to downplay this thing... but is anyone confused why this thing is climbing a linear line of infections? I would imagine with R0 close to 2 that this thing would be going parabolic, but instead even in highly infected countries like South Korea its climbing in a pretty standard linear fashion. Is containment working? Is R0 overstated? Are there just a very high amount of asymptotic cases? Or with such a long incubation period are we watching the kindling about to set off the bonfire?
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:24 pm

N757ST wrote:
Again, not trying to downplay this thing... but is anyone confused why this thing is climbing a linear line of infections? I would imagine with R0 close to 2 that this thing would be going parabolic, but instead even in highly infected countries like South Korea its climbing in a pretty standard linear fashion. Is containment working? Is R0 overstated? Are there just a very high amount of asymptotic cases? Or with such a long incubation period are we watching the kindling about to set off the bonfire?


or....50% of new cases are under-reported.
If one person infects two, R0 = 2. But if you only report one new case, the reported R0 = 1 ;)
 
kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:29 pm

N757ST wrote:
Again, not trying to downplay this thing... but is anyone confused why this thing is climbing a linear line of infections? I would imagine with R0 close to 2 that this thing would be going parabolic, but instead even in highly infected countries like South Korea its climbing in a pretty standard linear fashion. Is containment working? Is R0 overstated? Are there just a very high amount of asymptotic cases? Or with such a long incubation period are we watching the kindling about to set off the bonfire?

Trend seems to go faster than exponential. Case count outside of China went 10x in the first 3 weeks of February; now it is 10x within less than 2 weeks. Containment is not working, judging by the numbers. Looking at the numbers at face value and assuming 7 days average contageous span, R0 went from 2.3 about a month ago to 3.2 as of now.... Maybe actually higher, if infection span is longer.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2932
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:31 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
N757ST wrote:
Again, not trying to downplay this thing... but is anyone confused why this thing is climbing a linear line of infections? I would imagine with R0 close to 2 that this thing would be going parabolic, but instead even in highly infected countries like South Korea its climbing in a pretty standard linear fashion. Is containment working? Is R0 overstated? Are there just a very high amount of asymptotic cases? Or with such a long incubation period are we watching the kindling about to set off the bonfire?


or....50% of new cases are under-reported.
If one person infects two, R0 = 2. But if you only report one new case, the reported R0 = 1 ;)

Only if unreported patients actually behave to stay unreported and don't infect anyone.
If only a certain - but constant! - fraction is reported, it doesn't really affect spreading estimates.
 
Kilopond
Posts: 563
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:32 pm

There is some outrage in Italy about a nasty parody broadcast by Canal Plus. Introducing "Pizza Corona" (might be offending!):

https://twitter.com/i/status/1234755064339816448
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2489
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:33 pm

Kilopond wrote:
There is some outrage in Italy about a nasty parody broadcast by Canal Plus. Introducing "Pizza Corona" (might be offending!):

https://twitter.com/i/status/1234755064339816448


Disgusting, but in a way hilarious as well.
 
N757ST
Posts: 1033
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:35 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
N757ST wrote:
Again, not trying to downplay this thing... but is anyone confused why this thing is climbing a linear line of infections? I would imagine with R0 close to 2 that this thing would be going parabolic, but instead even in highly infected countries like South Korea its climbing in a pretty standard linear fashion. Is containment working? Is R0 overstated? Are there just a very high amount of asymptotic cases? Or with such a long incubation period are we watching the kindling about to set off the bonfire?


or....50% of new cases are under-reported.
If one person infects two, R0 = 2. But if you only report one new case, the reported R0 = 1 ;)


The rate though is the rate, I mean even if you’re under reporting if the severity of this disease is to be believed, hospitalizations would and deaths would follow a parabolic trend, they’d have to. It seems South Korea is engaging in the most testing, and they seem to have a very very low level of severe sickness. Maybe this thing is far more widespread then thought but the severity is less, or it has mutated to a lesser severity. Or again, in a week we could be talking about South Korean hospitals being flooded and this thing starts taking off. It seems new infections are fairly consistent at ~1000 a day, if it continues in that linear fashion it’d take 130 years to get through the population. So either cases have to increase in a more then linear fashion, or maybe containment is working, or we have a misunderstanding of how the disease works.
 
kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:45 pm

N757ST wrote:
The rate though is the rate, I mean even if you’re under reporting if the severity of this disease is to be believed, hospitalizations would and deaths would follow a parabolic trend, they’d have to. It seems South Korea is engaging in the most testing, and they seem to have a very very low level of severe sickness. Maybe this thing is far more widespread then thought but the severity is less, or it has mutated to a lesser severity. Or again, in a week we could be talking about South Korean hospitals being flooded and this thing starts taking off. It seems new infections are fairly consistent at ~1000 a day, if it continues in that linear fashion it’d take 130 years to get through the population. So either cases have to increase in a more then linear fashion, or maybe containment is working, or we have a misunderstanding of how the disease works.

Just remember that original virus had people getting seriously sick in about 10 days from symptoms onset, so Korea is not at the stage when that can be said with any certainty yet . But we all will be better off if you're right and severity is mutated away. Actually it looks like it actually happened - but we will see (knocking the wood)
 
slider
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:46 pm

Got off a plane yesterday and 8 people on my flight were wearing masks (you know, the ones that do absolutely NOTHING for preventing it but makes everyone who wears them look like a dope)... The hysteria about this is ridiculous.

Carry on, people.
 
N757ST
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:51 pm

kalvado wrote:
N757ST wrote:
The rate though is the rate, I mean even if you’re under reporting if the severity of this disease is to be believed, hospitalizations would and deaths would follow a parabolic trend, they’d have to. It seems South Korea is engaging in the most testing, and they seem to have a very very low level of severe sickness. Maybe this thing is far more widespread then thought but the severity is less, or it has mutated to a lesser severity. Or again, in a week we could be talking about South Korean hospitals being flooded and this thing starts taking off. It seems new infections are fairly consistent at ~1000 a day, if it continues in that linear fashion it’d take 130 years to get through the population. So either cases have to increase in a more then linear fashion, or maybe containment is working, or we have a misunderstanding of how the disease works.

Just remember that original virus had people getting seriously sick in about 10 days from symptoms onset, so Korea is not at the stage when that can be said with any certainty yet . But we all will be better off if you're right and severity is mutated away. Actually it looks like it actually happened - but we will see (knocking the wood)


Agreed. Again, I’m prefacing this that I’m not trying to downplay anything here. I could also be the South Korea has a far higher rate of testing then most countries, so that could also effect this. Perhaps more people then thought have this and the effects haven't lead to enough people seeking medical attention to warranted being counted. That could also reconcile how this virus was spreading relatively undetected in the Pacific Northwest since January. I also agree next week will be a good bellwether to how severe this virus will be world wide.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:51 pm

N757ST wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
N757ST wrote:
Again, not trying to downplay this thing... but is anyone confused why this thing is climbing a linear line of infections? I would imagine with R0 close to 2 that this thing would be going parabolic, but instead even in highly infected countries like South Korea its climbing in a pretty standard linear fashion. Is containment working? Is R0 overstated? Are there just a very high amount of asymptotic cases? Or with such a long incubation period are we watching the kindling about to set off the bonfire?


or....50% of new cases are under-reported.
If one person infects two, R0 = 2. But if you only report one new case, the reported R0 = 1 ;)


The rate though is the rate, I mean even if you’re under reporting if the severity of this disease is to be believed, hospitalizations would and deaths would follow a parabolic trend, they’d have to. It seems South Korea is engaging in the most testing, and they seem to have a very very low level of severe sickness. Maybe this thing is far more widespread then thought but the severity is less, or it has mutated to a lesser severity. Or again, in a week we could be talking about South Korean hospitals being flooded and this thing starts taking off. It seems new infections are fairly consistent at ~1000 a day, if it continues in that linear fashion it’d take 130 years to get through the population. So either cases have to increase in a more then linear fashion, or maybe containment is working, or we have a misunderstanding of how the disease works.


I've been in the camp for a while that this was far more widespread than people thought due to the asymptomatic nature of cases in younger people. (That last bit has become more understood recently, but if you looked at who was being infected and dying in the early stages it should have been obvious that there were people acting as carriers with no real symptoms.) I also think pollution plays a big role. As well as the fact that smokers are at a higher risk.

Just look at the US cases for instance. 6 elderly people in a nursing home dead. Only way that got there was from someone outside. That person outside had no idea they had it and this virus, like many other flu like viruses, can be fatal to elderly folks already at risk.

I would suggest if you're in your later stages of life that you avoid other people more than usual. See your grandchildren using Skype or facetime.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:01 pm

32 cases in Norway. More than in Canada (27), and almost as many as Australia (39).

And several of the cases could have been avoided if they tested the doctor as he asked them to.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:06 pm

Cerecl wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
On another subject, when will China come clean and say where this virus came from, the 'bat' theory was debunked, so its still all a mystery how this came about.


How can they "come clean" when they've got no idea? Pangolin was suggested as the most likely but it is not proven.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00548-w

We actually don't know for sure the natural reservoir for Ebola virus (probably bats) even after it has been known to human for almost half a century. Why do you think the source of COVID-19 can be found out in a few months?


China has been dealing with this at least since late November early December, quite odd despite their huge police/surveillance state they don't know the root of this virus. The fact that any independent scientists doctors were being harassed shut down and persecuted at the beginning of this seems quite odd, as if they were trying to hide this.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Tugger
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:04 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
China has been dealing with this at least since late November early December, quite odd despite their huge police/surveillance state they don't know the root of this virus. The fact that any independent scientists doctors were being harassed shut down and persecuted at the beginning of this seems quite odd, as if they were trying to hide this.

Are you suggesting conspiracy? Are you suggesting China was responsible for releasing or creating it?

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:06 pm

Tugger wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
China has been dealing with this at least since late November early December, quite odd despite their huge police/surveillance state they don't know the root of this virus. The fact that any independent scientists doctors were being harassed shut down and persecuted at the beginning of this seems quite odd, as if they were trying to hide this.

Are you suggesting conspiracy? Are you suggesting China was responsible for releasing or creating it?

Tugg


Not suggesting anything, but I wouldn't doubt there was more to the story other than 'bats' as it was stated before. China is a criminal dictatorship, nothing would surprise me.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:08 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Cerecl wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
On another subject, when will China come clean and say where this virus came from, the 'bat' theory was debunked, so its still all a mystery how this came about.


How can they "come clean" when they've got no idea? Pangolin was suggested as the most likely but it is not proven.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00548-w

We actually don't know for sure the natural reservoir for Ebola virus (probably bats) even after it has been known to human for almost half a century. Why do you think the source of COVID-19 can be found out in a few months?


China has been dealing with this at least since late November early December, quite odd despite their huge police/surveillance state they don't know the root of this virus. The fact that any independent scientists doctors were being harassed shut down and persecuted at the beginning of this seems quite odd, as if they were trying to hide this.


You didn't answer the question - why do you think a full genomic breakdown of a virus can be done in just a few months? Do you have any idea how large China is and how many animal-human interactions there are in a province like Hubei? Gimme a break.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:17 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Cerecl wrote:

How can they "come clean" when they've got no idea? Pangolin was suggested as the most likely but it is not proven.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00548-w

We actually don't know for sure the natural reservoir for Ebola virus (probably bats) even after it has been known to human for almost half a century. Why do you think the source of COVID-19 can be found out in a few months?


China has been dealing with this at least since late November early December, quite odd despite their huge police/surveillance state they don't know the root of this virus. The fact that any independent scientists doctors were being harassed shut down and persecuted at the beginning of this seems quite odd, as if they were trying to hide this.


You didn't answer the question - why do you think a full genomic breakdown of a virus can be done in just a few months? Do you have any idea how large China is and how many animal-human interactions there are in a province like Hubei? Gimme a break.

This is a unique situation in terms of virology - full genome sequence was available days after disease onset, and 100+ sequences are published by now.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01 ... -s-origins is a fairly old article (a month ago!) - but may be a good read.
However, one may be aware that there are tens of mutations in the samples. Building full family tree is involved. There is a good tree in that paper, showing relations of nCoV to bat viruses. However branches with civet and hedgehog virus are close - so who knows? Virus seem to move between species fairly easily.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:18 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Cerecl wrote:

How can they "come clean" when they've got no idea? Pangolin was suggested as the most likely but it is not proven.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00548-w

We actually don't know for sure the natural reservoir for Ebola virus (probably bats) even after it has been known to human for almost half a century. Why do you think the source of COVID-19 can be found out in a few months?


China has been dealing with this at least since late November early December, quite odd despite their huge police/surveillance state they don't know the root of this virus. The fact that any independent scientists doctors were being harassed shut down and persecuted at the beginning of this seems quite odd, as if they were trying to hide this.


You didn't answer the question - why do you think a full genomic breakdown of a virus can be done in just a few months? Do you have any idea how large China is and how many animal-human interactions there are in a province like Hubei? Gimme a break.


Well its very suspect that at this stage, almost 4 months after this began we don't know how the first person was infected and what was the source. Considering China has one of the biggest surveillance apparatus in the world.

Aren't you going to deny they tried to shut down dissent among their own Chinese scientists, doctors? or even help from outside ? I find this at the very least suspect.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:21 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

China has been dealing with this at least since late November early December, quite odd despite their huge police/surveillance state they don't know the root of this virus. The fact that any independent scientists doctors were being harassed shut down and persecuted at the beginning of this seems quite odd, as if they were trying to hide this.


You didn't answer the question - why do you think a full genomic breakdown of a virus can be done in just a few months? Do you have any idea how large China is and how many animal-human interactions there are in a province like Hubei? Gimme a break.


Well its very suspect that at this stage, almost 4 months after this began we don't know how the first person was infected and what was the source. Considering China has one of the biggest surveillance apparatus in the world.

Aren't you going to deny they tried to shut down dissent among their own Chinese scientists, doctors? or even help from outside ? I find this at the very least suspect.


Nobody sane would deny that which is patently obvious. What in the world is the logical connection between forensic virology/epidemiology and surveillance? This oughta be good.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:23 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

You didn't answer the question - why do you think a full genomic breakdown of a virus can be done in just a few months? Do you have any idea how large China is and how many animal-human interactions there are in a province like Hubei? Gimme a break.


Well its very suspect that at this stage, almost 4 months after this began we don't know how the first person was infected and what was the source. Considering China has one of the biggest surveillance apparatus in the world.

Aren't you going to deny they tried to shut down dissent among their own Chinese scientists, doctors? or even help from outside ? I find this at the very least suspect.


Nobody sane would deny that which is patently obvious. What in the world is the logical connection between forensic virology/epidemiology and surveillance? This oughta be good.


No connection, just that it seems pretty strange they haven't gotten to the root cause, despite their huge surveillance state.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:31 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Well its very suspect that at this stage, almost 4 months after this began we don't know how the first person was infected and what was the source. Considering China has one of the biggest surveillance apparatus in the world.

Aren't you going to deny they tried to shut down dissent among their own Chinese scientists, doctors? or even help from outside ? I find this at the very least suspect.


Nobody sane would deny that which is patently obvious. What in the world is the logical connection between forensic virology/epidemiology and surveillance? This oughta be good.


No connection, just that it seems pretty strange they haven't gotten to the root cause, despite their huge surveillance state.

As a matter of fact - a somewhat similar situation: CA and WA have ongoing community transmission - and CDC can barely tell what is going on. Armed with all the powers of advanced western democracy, tight border control and oceans between US and infection origin, and most advanced science in the world - plus prior knowledge of infection coming in.
Besides, why do you think root cause is important? It may be somewhat interesting in a long run, but containment and care for those sick were the prime objectives.
 
kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:33 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

China has been dealing with this at least since late November early December, quite odd despite their huge police/surveillance state they don't know the root of this virus. The fact that any independent scientists doctors were being harassed shut down and persecuted at the beginning of this seems quite odd, as if they were trying to hide this.


You didn't answer the question - why do you think a full genomic breakdown of a virus can be done in just a few months? Do you have any idea how large China is and how many animal-human interactions there are in a province like Hubei? Gimme a break.


Well its very suspect that at this stage, almost 4 months after this began we don't know how the first person was infected and what was the source. Considering China has one of the biggest surveillance apparatus in the world.

Aren't you going to deny they tried to shut down dissent among their own Chinese scientists, doctors? or even help from outside ? I find this at the very least suspect.

And here we have a perfect match: USA and Norway agencies refusing to perform tests at physicians request. Disease runaway as a result.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:34 pm

kalvado wrote:

Besides, why do you think root cause is important? It may be somewhat interesting in a long run, but containment and care for those sick were the prime objectives.


Well, perhaps to avoid this happening in the future can be a reason.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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casinterest
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:36 pm

Another article posting some of the rates of death and more details on how those with less reactive immune systems seem to avoid the worst.


https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who ... c-factors/

It may be that immuno-suppression is actually helpful. Some of the most serious symptoms of Covid-19 result from an immune system on the rampage rather than a lethargic one, Chinese scientists found: An extreme immune response called cytokine storm, a flood of immune cells and the biochemicals they produce, tears through lung tissue.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:36 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Well its very suspect that at this stage, almost 4 months after this began we don't know how the first person was infected and what was the source. Considering China has one of the biggest surveillance apparatus in the world.

Aren't you going to deny they tried to shut down dissent among their own Chinese scientists, doctors? or even help from outside ? I find this at the very least suspect.


Nobody sane would deny that which is patently obvious. What in the world is the logical connection between forensic virology/epidemiology and surveillance? This oughta be good.


No connection, just that it seems pretty strange they haven't gotten to the root cause, despite their huge surveillance state.


A completely unscientific statement. Surveillance and laboratory science identifying root causes have zero relationship. Next.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:53 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
kalvado wrote:

Besides, why do you think root cause is important? It may be somewhat interesting in a long run, but containment and care for those sick were the prime objectives.


Well, perhaps to avoid this happening in the future can be a reason.

Animal to human transmission is a well-known root cause. From black plague in deserts to Spanish flu on Kansas farms and MERS/SARS recently.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:26 pm

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who ... c-factors/

An early and scientific assessment of who catches the virus, and how seriously it affects them. By age, health etc.

Interestingly infants through teenagers are almost immune from serious affects. Not well understood
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
yonahleung
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:32 pm

I would hazard to speculate that with the ability to trace the whereabouts of everyone from facial recognition and alipay/ wechat pay, it would be really easy to identify patient zero? The Chinese news has been able to identify some pretty interesting infection paths from surveillance cameras (e.g. someone caught the virus from a carrier just by standing close for 15 seconds). I would think patient zero would be very easy to find when you have the movement records of every citizen in the country.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3568
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:46 pm

slider wrote:
Got off a plane yesterday and 8 people on my flight were wearing masks (you know, the ones that do absolutely NOTHING for preventing it but makes everyone who wears them look like a dope)... The hysteria about this is ridiculous.

Carry on, people.


Where are you flying in, though?

As for hysteria - if I'm in East/SE Asia, Italy or even Western Europe in general, Iran; then yes, I would take precautions. There's nothing wrong with people wearing masks even though most people are definitely wearing them wrong.

Now, would I make a run for all those daily necessities like foods/toilet papers/whatever? Not even if I'm in East/SE Asia, much less US or Australia. The hysteria there is definitely insane, but quite frankly, it only take a small group of idiots to buy up a store as if tomorrow is the end of the world.

Kilopond wrote:
There is some outrage in Italy about a nasty parody broadcast by Canal Plus. Introducing "Pizza Corona" (might be offending!):

https://twitter.com/i/status/1234755064339816448


And I thought only mainland Chinese are snowflakes :duck:
 
slider
Posts: 7626
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 11:42 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:57 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
slider wrote:
Got off a plane yesterday and 8 people on my flight were wearing masks (you know, the ones that do absolutely NOTHING for preventing it but makes everyone who wears them look like a dope)... The hysteria about this is ridiculous.

Carry on, people.


Where are you flying in, though?



This was LAX-IAH...crazy.

And a coworker of mine had to do some drywall work at his house over the weekend and Lowe's was sold out of dustmasks even!! Lunacy, being fueled by the media. They profit off of panic and disorder.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2932
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:02 pm

yonahleung wrote:
I would hazard to speculate that with the ability to trace the whereabouts of everyone from facial recognition and alipay/ wechat pay, it would be really easy to identify patient zero? The Chinese news has been able to identify some pretty interesting infection paths from surveillance cameras (e.g. someone caught the virus from a carrier just by standing close for 15 seconds). I would think patient zero would be very easy to find when you have the movement records of every citizen in the country.

1. Is there enough data storage?
2. Is there enough tracing within the market where people interact basically on everyone-to-everyone basis?
I suspect that even with all the data on hand, it may be more difficult to do than to say
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2489
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:04 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-is-getting-sick-and-how-sick-a-breakdown-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/

An early and scientific assessment of who catches the virus, and how seriously it affects them. By age, health etc.

Interestingly infants through teenagers are almost immune from serious affects. Not well understood


The virus is counting telomeres ;)
 
DLFREEBIRD
Posts: 1542
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:07 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:08 pm

casinterest wrote:
Another article posting some of the rates of death and more details on how those with less reactive immune systems seem to avoid the worst.


https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who ... c-factors/

It may be that immuno-suppression is actually helpful. Some of the most serious symptoms of Covid-19 result from an immune system on the rampage rather than a lethargic one, Chinese scientists found: An extreme immune response called cytokine storm, a flood of immune cells and the biochemicals they produce, tears through lung tissue.


that article was interesting but, raise more questions than answers. for example, I am glad that young people are not getting it, but are they spreading the disease? are they asymptomatic carriers?
 
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2578
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:20 pm

In Norway we have stories of potentially infected people (people who have been in contact with confirmed infected people and have all the COVID-19 symptoms) calling the doctors to let them know they might have the Coronavirus, only to be put on hold for hours and being told to call this number, that number. It's ridiculus.

One woman tried to call her MD. The MD said "call the hospital, we don't want you coming here if you're infected". She then called the hospital, after waiting for a long time on hold she was told to call the ER. Then she called the ER, and they told her to call the hospital again. After hours on hold she decided to call the newspaper instead.

And the emergency phone numbers are completely clogged with people calling about the Coronavirus. That's the situation, and we're just beginning.

We have 15 times more infected people per capita than the US right now. We're about to see the complete collapse of the state's emergency reponse systems when the number of infected people triples during the next few days.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3568
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:21 pm

slider wrote:
This was LAX-IAH...crazy.

And a coworker of mine had to do some drywall work at his house over the weekend and Lowe's was sold out of dustmasks even!! Lunacy, being fueled by the media. They profit off of panic and disorder.


Depends on where you are.

In Greater LA (or any metro areas with a fair size East Asian population...so that include places like Houston or DFW metroplex), a lot of masks were bought up early on by people to be shipped back to places like China. With surgical masks that are being sold in US mainly Made in China, that also make the shortage in US worse as China is not shipping them over to US due to the shortage in China itself.

Back to the flight - since it's LAX-IAH, are those people that wear masks East Asians? If yes, it doesn't surprise me as they are definitely taking lots of precautions.

P.S. 3M is definitely making a nice profit...
 
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Tugger
Posts: 10898
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:34 pm

"The media" is not the problem (or the enemy as some seem to want to portray). Misinformation is the problem (still not an enemy) and it takes some kind of non-cow mentality to actually discern what is important. You need to have some level of competence to live anywhere, otherwise you are just drifting along and will do and accept whatever someone tells you.

If that is what you want, to only follow and do as you are told, by whatever dear leader you follow, then yes, "the media" will be confusing to the point of debilitating. But hopefully most people are able to figure out what they need to know and do after listening to a variety of sources (yes, a variety).

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 115
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:34 pm

casinterest wrote:
Another article posting some of the rates of death and more details on how those with less reactive immune systems seem to avoid the worst.


https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who ... c-factors/

It may be that immuno-suppression is actually helpful. Some of the most serious symptoms of Covid-19 result from an immune system on the rampage rather than a lethargic one, Chinese scientists found: An extreme immune response called cytokine storm, a flood of immune cells and the biochemicals they produce, tears through lung tissue.


This does not make any sense because if this was true there would be numerous deaths in the 18-35 group and there are not. Cytokine storms are most common as per the 1918 flu in people in early to lower middle age adulthood.
 
bennett123
Posts: 10052
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:37 pm

I was in Thailand in October, people wearing face masks was common then.

Also visited Singapore, Kuala Lumpar, Jakarta, Bali and Manila.

Do not recall seeing them in those countries.

Clearly the ‘normal’ use of these masks varies throughout SE Asia.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2932
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:48 pm

LNCS0930 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Another article posting some of the rates of death and more details on how those with less reactive immune systems seem to avoid the worst.


https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who ... c-factors/

It may be that immuno-suppression is actually helpful. Some of the most serious symptoms of Covid-19 result from an immune system on the rampage rather than a lethargic one, Chinese scientists found: An extreme immune response called cytokine storm, a flood of immune cells and the biochemicals they produce, tears through lung tissue.


This does not make any sense because if this was true there would be numerous deaths in the 18-35 group and there are not. Cytokine storms are most common as per the 1918 flu in people in early to lower middle age adulthood.

18-35 is not a random number. Cytokine storm for Spanish flu can possibly be linked to antigenic sin effect from earlier 1893 epidemics ("russian flu"). A random thought: what if there was a coronavirus epidemic some 50-60 years ago in China leading to same effect in older people today? Given turbulent times in China, epidemic could go unnoticed back then, and it could be a weaker virus anyway.
 
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ER757
Posts: 3856
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:52 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
A local report from Washington State, USA. Our Gov Inslee declared a state of emergency on Saturday, well all Costco's on Sunday were mobbed like it was Black Friday. Some stores had special cashier lines just for toilet paper. For those not familiar with Costco, they usually carry things in bulk sizes - its a 30 roll bale.

I went to Costco at 1 PM today, usually close to a ghost town but the lot was full. Carts going by with 6, 7 bales, everyone has at least one, and paper towels, napkins?!, and bales of Kleenex. When the store opened at 9, they had just unloaded an entire semi-trailer of toilet paper and it was gone. There was some Charmin across the aisle but the pile was getting smaller by the minute. What does one do with 180 rolls of toilet paper for a family of 4. We get winter storms here with the pre-panic hoarding, similar this time but calm, like being contestants in a reality TV show.

Similar story for me - went to Fred Meyer (local grocery/dept store chain) Sunday to do my regular grocery shopping and it was like day before Thanksgiving! I swear everyone in the greater Puget Sound region was at that store. Just insanity - people need to CALM DOWN just a bit.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2489
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:57 pm

Tugger wrote:
"The media" is not the problem (or the enemy as some seem to want to portray). Misinformation is the problem (still not an enemy) and it takes some kind of non-cow mentality to actually discern what is important. You need to have some level of competence to live anywhere, otherwise you are just drifting along and will do and accept whatever someone tells you.

If that is what you want, to only follow and do as you are told, by whatever dear leader you follow, then yes, "the media" will be confusing to the point of debilitating. But hopefully most people are able to figure out what they need to know and do after listening to a variety of sources (yes, a variety).

Tugg


If falsely shouting "FIRE!" in a theater and causing a panic is illegal, then why should creating a Coronavirus panic not be treated similarly and be illegal?
Speech that is dangerous and false is not protected, see Schenck v. United States, 1919.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shouting_ ... ed_theater
 
kalvado
Posts: 2932
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:13 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Tugger wrote:
"The media" is not the problem (or the enemy as some seem to want to portray). Misinformation is the problem (still not an enemy) and it takes some kind of non-cow mentality to actually discern what is important. You need to have some level of competence to live anywhere, otherwise you are just drifting along and will do and accept whatever someone tells you.

If that is what you want, to only follow and do as you are told, by whatever dear leader you follow, then yes, "the media" will be confusing to the point of debilitating. But hopefully most people are able to figure out what they need to know and do after listening to a variety of sources (yes, a variety).

Tugg


If falsely shouting "FIRE!" in a theater and causing a panic is illegal, then why should creating a Coronavirus panic not be treated similarly and be illegal?
Speech that is dangerous and false is not protected, see Schenck v. United States, 1919.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shouting_ ... ed_theater

What about "fire!" when there is a faint smell of smoke?
People are all furious over Chinese authorities for just that - silencing those raising concerns at early stages.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1352
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:27 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Tugger wrote:
"The media" is not the problem (or the enemy as some seem to want to portray). Misinformation is the problem (still not an enemy) and it takes some kind of non-cow mentality to actually discern what is important. You need to have some level of competence to live anywhere, otherwise you are just drifting along and will do and accept whatever someone tells you.

If that is what you want, to only follow and do as you are told, by whatever dear leader you follow, then yes, "the media" will be confusing to the point of debilitating. But hopefully most people are able to figure out what they need to know and do after listening to a variety of sources (yes, a variety).

Tugg


If falsely shouting "FIRE!" in a theater and causing a panic is illegal, then why should creating a Coronavirus panic not be treated similarly and be illegal?
Speech that is dangerous and false is not protected, see Schenck v. United States, 1919.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shouting_ ... ed_theater


The problem is that the ones freaking out are the governments, people are being calm regardless of whether in Wuhan, Hong Kong, Milan, Tokyo or California. I don't see riots or people looting stores.

If people want to calmly stock up on food, masks and supplies, or keep children home, what's the problem, why should governments freak out about that too?
When people see governments freaking out like that, stocking up is the right thing to do, and the more governments freak out, the more people will stock up.
Mass intelligence / the wisdom of crowds has been proven to be much more likely to make the right decisions than a few elite individuals, and when people are stocking up across the globe and going out less in the face of a deadly virus, it is not panic, but mass intelligence making an instinctive decision. If governments want to freak about it, let them.

What authorities worldwide are doing, are exactly what Michael Scott does in the below video.

Stop saying to not panic when nobody is panicking.
What we are doing here is sharing information, opinions, views, etc... Which is exactly how the wisdom of crowds works.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ObWrdYQ_6xY
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3568
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:35 pm

ER757 wrote:
Similar story for me - went to Fred Meyer (local grocery/dept store chain) Sunday to do my regular grocery shopping and it was like day before Thanksgiving! I swear everyone in the greater Puget Sound region was at that store. Just insanity - people need to CALM DOWN just a bit.


In miles away, I saw my friends in Houston posting pictures of people making runs on rice, toilet papers, bottle waters...

Seriously, the hysteria is just insane and senseless by now, and this is coming from somebody that say the "#justlikeflu" crowd is underestimating the impacts of nCoV.

Tugger wrote:
"The media" is not the problem (or the enemy as some seem to want to portray). Misinformation is the problem (still not an enemy) and it takes some kind of non-cow mentality to actually discern what is important. You need to have some level of competence to live anywhere, otherwise you are just drifting along and will do and accept whatever someone tells you.

If that is what you want, to only follow and do as you are told, by whatever dear leader you follow, then yes, "the media" will be confusing to the point of debilitating. But hopefully most people are able to figure out what they need to know and do after listening to a variety of sources (yes, a variety).

Tugg


All I'll say is, you can't fix stupid.

It doesn't matter how much shops come out and say there are plenty of everything in stock - people still just buy up a whole store for no reason anyway.

The only things that ARE definitely in shortage are protective gears for medical professionals (which include surgical mask).

EDIT:
Just saw this...
https://www.kvue.com/article/entertainm ... c8b613c48a

SXSW is facing a dilemma of whether to cancel or not.

Online, you have the hysteric crowd saying they should cancel. You also have some large tech companies dropping out.
In reality, there is not even 1 case in Texas yet.
Last edited by zakuivcustom on Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:46 pm

kalvado wrote:
Aesma wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
I thought Norway has one of the best healthcare systems in the world, this guy was a doctor, imagine someone who isn't.

One thing this crisis is exposing is the myths that all healthcare systems except the US are better. Turns out no system is perfect.


You and casinterest seem to be under the impression that there is a cheap, readily available and reliable test for this, but that's not the case (yet).

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/02/heal ... g-cdc.html

Whenever I talk with biochemist friends about PCR test, it is invariably "well, not really a big deal, just get more primers". Not really cheap, but cheaper than handling epidemic.
It is totally possible that one of primers got hit by mutations, but that is not the reason to DENY testing. Equipment is pretty standard, it is primer test kit - which CDC supposingly sent out to many labs - which is virus-specific. They are talking about "permission to test", which is totally strange. Certifying results, maybe - but even then, it is bureaucracy defeating urgency.
It really looks as if CDC was saving their resources in case of actual epidemics - and now we have it uncontrolled.



No one should expect a test easier and cheaper than a PCR test. I had mentioned my mom's company had abandoned a project to create a rapid test for a corona virus because there is no surface antigen that is both conserved and unique to any particular coronavirus to bind to, unless we're lucky and this one is different. Usually the characteristics that make a coronavirus particularly virulent are found in its RNA because it all depends on what the virus does after it enters the cell.

Which makes the PCR test the go-to method.
情報
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1352
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:48 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
ER757 wrote:
Similar story for me - went to Fred Meyer (local grocery/dept store chain) Sunday to do my regular grocery shopping and it was like day before Thanksgiving! I swear everyone in the greater Puget Sound region was at that store. Just insanity - people need to CALM DOWN just a bit.


In miles away, I saw my friends in Houston posting pictures of people making runs on rice, toilet papers, bottle waters...

Seriously, the hysteria is just insane and senseless by now, and this is coming from somebody that say the "#justlikeflu" crowd is underestimating the impacts of nCoV.

Tugger wrote:
"The media" is not the problem (or the enemy as some seem to want to portray). Misinformation is the problem (still not an enemy) and it takes some kind of non-cow mentality to actually discern what is important. You need to have some level of competence to live anywhere, otherwise you are just drifting along and will do and accept whatever someone tells you.

If that is what you want, to only follow and do as you are told, by whatever dear leader you follow, then yes, "the media" will be confusing to the point of debilitating. But hopefully most people are able to figure out what they need to know and do after listening to a variety of sources (yes, a variety).

Tugg


All I'll say is, you can't fix stupid.

It doesn't matter how much shops come out and say there are plenty of everything in stock - people still just buy up a whole store for no reason anyway.

The only things that ARE definitely in shortage are protective gears for medical professionals (which include surgical mask).


Quite frankly, it's hard to tell so far whether stocking up on things that can be consumed even if all of this works out just fine is more stupid than not making any kind of preparations.
Buying 1 year worth of toilet paper at once is not that irrational compared to buying a month worth of toilet paper each month, eventually you'll be using the same quantity and spending the same money.

When governments are freaking out like this, when there seems to be no immediate solution for a deadly disease that is spreading fast, perhaps not doing any kind of preparation is the stupid, irrational choice?

I bet hundreds of millions of Chinese who are on lockdown wished they had stocked up on supplies before they went on lockdown, so they don't need to worry about going out to find overpriced supplies or getting infected.

In the previews post, I talked about the wisdom of the crowds. That's what's happening.
Sure, stores and distributors have supplies, for now. It takes very little for supply chains to break down though. That's why people in Japan are buying toilet paper despite that the government is asking to stop as there is no risk to the mostly domestic supply. People just know better.
 
User avatar
Tugger
Posts: 10898
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 8:38 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:02 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Tugger wrote:
"The media" is not the problem (or the enemy as some seem to want to portray). Misinformation is the problem (still not an enemy) and it takes some kind of non-cow mentality to actually discern what is important. You need to have some level of competence to live anywhere, otherwise you are just drifting along and will do and accept whatever someone tells you.

If that is what you want, to only follow and do as you are told, by whatever dear leader you follow, then yes, "the media" will be confusing to the point of debilitating. But hopefully most people are able to figure out what they need to know and do after listening to a variety of sources (yes, a variety).

Tugg


If falsely shouting "FIRE!" in a theater and causing a panic is illegal, then why should creating a Coronavirus panic not be treated similarly and be illegal?
Speech that is dangerous and false is not protected, see Schenck v. United States, 1919.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shouting_ ... ed_theater

Just a point of note, the "shouting FIRE" example is invalid. It is not illegal to do that, and the ruling was effectively voided with later rulings, one of which clarified what was not allowed was (from the link) "directed to and likely to incite imminent lawless action (e.g. a riot)."

You can shout "fire" in a crowded theater (but you're an idiot without there being an actual fire and may suffer some unforeseen consequence if you do so). Again, people in the theater need to think and assess the true situation, and not act "lawlessly".

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey

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