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Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:20 pm

Italian government issues new rules to all Italians:

-Elderly need to stay home as much as possible and avoid contact
-2 meters of distance between people
-No kissing, no handshakes, no hugging
-Feverish people need to stay home

https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_mar ... 09c8.shtml
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3610
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:25 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Quite frankly, it's hard to tell so far whether stocking up on things that can be consumed even if all of this works out just fine is more stupid than not making any kind of preparations.
Buying 1 year worth of toilet paper at once is not that irrational compared to buying a month worth of toilet paper each month, eventually you'll be using the same quantity and spending the same money.


Except storing too much toilet papers do attract bugs, and you'll eventually have to throw out 6 months worth of supplies. In another word, you just waste a bunch of money.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Sure, stores and distributors have supplies, for now. It takes very little for supply chains to break down though. That's why people in Japan are buying toilet paper despite that the government is asking to stop as there is no risk to the mostly domestic supply. People just know better.


I really don't know if it's "people just know better" on some things like toilet paper...

On the other hand, I can definitely use a whole roll of this: :duck:
https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=2020 ... i.view-000

(In reality, Japan would be the last place I would worry about running out of toilet paper, with their advance toilets...)
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2823
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:38 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Italian government issues new rules to all Italians:

-Elderly need to stay home as much as possible and avoid contact
-2 meters of distance between people
-No kissing, no handshakes, no hugging
-Feverish people need to stay home

https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_mar ... 09c8.shtml


They could have done with just one simple rule: "Dear Italians, USE COMMON SENSE". ;)
 
kalvado
Posts: 3244
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:52 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Quite frankly, it's hard to tell so far whether stocking up on things that can be consumed even if all of this works out just fine is more stupid than not making any kind of preparations.
Buying 1 year worth of toilet paper at once is not that irrational compared to buying a month worth of toilet paper each month, eventually you'll be using the same quantity and spending the same money.


Except storing too much toilet papers do attract bugs, and you'll eventually have to throw out 6 months worth of supplies. In another word, you just waste a bunch of money.

Depends on where you live. My current place has nice dry cool basement, I can keep a decade supply of toilet paper without any worry. Once upon a time, we even actually bought a biggest pack - 96 rolls if not more - and used it up in a few months, no waste.
Place I used to live 15 years ago would struggle with 2 extra rolls, though.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3610
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:09 pm

kalvado wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Quite frankly, it's hard to tell so far whether stocking up on things that can be consumed even if all of this works out just fine is more stupid than not making any kind of preparations.
Buying 1 year worth of toilet paper at once is not that irrational compared to buying a month worth of toilet paper each month, eventually you'll be using the same quantity and spending the same money.


Except storing too much toilet papers do attract bugs, and you'll eventually have to throw out 6 months worth of supplies. In another word, you just waste a bunch of money.

Depends on where you live. My current place has nice dry cool basement, I can keep a decade supply of toilet paper without any worry. Once upon a time, we even actually bought a biggest pack - 96 rolls if not more - and used it up in a few months, no waste.
Place I used to live 15 years ago would struggle with 2 extra rolls, though.


I stand corrected. I make my statements based on news from Hong Kong telling people to stop stocking toilet papers, literally, due to bug issues.

HK, of course, has high humidity, which definitely doesn't help :).
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 13844
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:32 pm

Well they just announced that Coronavirus made it to NC .

This person apparently went to a State of Washington Nursing home for a visit.

https://www.wral.com/wake-county-reside ... /18990198/

// and they did not walk or drive back
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:50 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Quite frankly, it's hard to tell so far whether stocking up on things that can be consumed even if all of this works out just fine is more stupid than not making any kind of preparations.
Buying 1 year worth of toilet paper at once is not that irrational compared to buying a month worth of toilet paper each month, eventually you'll be using the same quantity and spending the same money.


Except storing too much toilet papers do attract bugs, and you'll eventually have to throw out 6 months worth of supplies. In another word, you just waste a bunch of money.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Sure, stores and distributors have supplies, for now. It takes very little for supply chains to break down though. That's why people in Japan are buying toilet paper despite that the government is asking to stop as there is no risk to the mostly domestic supply. People just know better.


I really don't know if it's "people just know better" on some things like toilet paper...

On the other hand, I can definitely use a whole roll of this: :duck:
https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=2020 ... i.view-000

(In reality, Japan would be the last place I would worry about running out of toilet paper, with their advance toilets...)


I don't want to overexpand this, but toilet paper is vulnerable in many ways, as are many processed supplies.
For people to be able to get basic supply like toilet paper at the store, a lot of things need to line up.
Trees need to be cut, processed into wood chips, transported to paper mills, processed into paper, transported to distributors, transported to the point of sale.
For instance, all it takes is for the trucks that do the transportation part to require parts that are not available due to supply chain suspension of truck parts and this supply chain stops. Same for the machines that process the wood chips into paper, or the machines that cut the trees, they require intense maintenance and parts availability. People-wise, the paper mill might close down, people who do the transporting or cut the trees might fall ill, warehouse workers at distributors may be asked to stay home.
People know that they can't harvest toilet paper from trees and that it's a basic necessity, so might as well get some while there is still.

As someone pointed out many Japanese have shower toilets/bidets, which reduces paper needs.
I have one of those and you still need to wipe to dry yourself and to get any residual dirt that there may be, although in an emergency situation, even small towels can work, and you can rotate the towels. The dryers on those things don't work well.

This being said, toilet paper goes beyond that, there are more uses to toilet paper
If you do get sick and need to self-quarantine, having toilet paper around, you don't need to worry even if you run out of tissue paper or kitchen rolls.
 
cpd
Posts: 6792
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:26 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
kalvado wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:

Except storing too much toilet papers do attract bugs, and you'll eventually have to throw out 6 months worth of supplies. In another word, you just waste a bunch of money.

Depends on where you live. My current place has nice dry cool basement, I can keep a decade supply of toilet paper without any worry. Once upon a time, we even actually bought a biggest pack - 96 rolls if not more - and used it up in a few months, no waste.
Place I used to live 15 years ago would struggle with 2 extra rolls, though.


I stand corrected. I make my statements based on news from Hong Kong telling people to stop stocking toilet papers, literally, due to bug issues.

HK, of course, has high humidity, which definitely doesn't help :).


I’m Australia too, or maybe it is those buyers shipping things overseas at inflated prices:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 546md.html

I should sell some packs online, $50 each. Hand sanitizer is sold out everywhere, now toilet paper shortages. What next?

Edit: at a nearby supermarket:

https://mobile.twitter.com/angrykid457/ ... 7477142528

Probably daigou buyer?
 
tootallsd
Posts: 547
Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2006 11:02 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:22 am

I wanted to take a moment to thank the many contributors to this thread. I have been able to form some useful opinions based on the many pieces of data provided. I've been reading through all the posts over the past week. And so far, it has been theoretical -- what do we do if / when, etc. What should we do now. Then all of a sudden, in an instance that theoretical is brought home with an instance that is one degree of separation. A good friend attended a company meeting in Italy two weeks ago. 8 of 40 participants have been diagnosed. Three are hospitalized. CDC confirmed his infection today and so far looks like he is experiencing a mild case.

My frustration (second hand) that the US system failed initially in helping with his issue. He visited his primary care (well actually the substitute of the substitute doctor) who focused on his pre-existing upper-respiratory issue that he had been fighting since December. Over the weekend a call to his closest hospital yielded the advice, that as it is a virus you have to tough it out. Yes, you can come in, but we have no care to offer. Pretty shocking when we talk about all the efforts to monitor infection spread and contacts. Monday morning, the nurse practitioner in his primary physician took charge. Got hold of the regional CDC office and he had a test scheduled within a couple of hours.

The test protocol seemed a bit surreal. He was told to drive to their office and park. Don't leave the car. Call when you've arrived and we will come to you. Two techs in hazmat (finally it is seeming real) came to the car and took a throat swab and nasal culture. They assured him he would have results by the following day (today) and to go home and remain in isolation.

Sure enough his positive result came in today. Additional instructions on how to split up the household and then a trip to a hospital for further observation. He's currently there and I'm curious to hear next steps for him and his partner.
 
cpd
Posts: 6792
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 4:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:38 am

I’m also crook with some respiratory virus at the moment as well. Same advice for me, just rest and tough it out. So I’ve just kept myself at home, drinking plenty of water, taking vitamin tablets that I have used for a long time and resting.

Annoying is that I don’t use public transport and have not been near anyone who is sick. I ride a bicycle everywhere, it’s one of the great benefits that I don’t have to use those grotty trains and buses and I’m not squeezed in with hundreds of other gurgling, sniffling and coughing people.
 
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trpmb6
Posts: 3018
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:45 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:22 am

casinterest wrote:
Well they just announced that Coronavirus made it to NC .

This person apparently went to a State of Washington Nursing home for a visit.

https://www.wral.com/wake-county-reside ... /18990198/

// and they did not walk or drive back


As I've continued to say, it's not contained, never will be and at this point people should just expect that this is going to run its course.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2823
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:14 am

trpmb6 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Well they just announced that Coronavirus made it to NC .

This person apparently went to a State of Washington Nursing home for a visit.

https://www.wral.com/wake-county-reside ... /18990198/

// and they did not walk or drive back


As I've continued to say, it's not contained, never will be and at this point people should just expect that this is going to run its course.


To paraphrase:

"First, it is dismissed. Then it is vehemently opposed. Finally, it is accepted as inevitable."

I believe we are still in stage 2. ;)
 
Derico
Posts: 4497
Joined: Mon Dec 20, 1999 9:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:37 am

Why is the death rate in that US state (Washington I believe), so high?? 27 cases and 9 deaths? That's appalling for a rich nation.

The virus has now reached the Southern Come with one case each in Argentina and Chile respectively. This is important because while everyone has until now been talking about warmer weather coming up and the possible effect to slow the virus down, let's remember the southern Cone of South America experiences a proper winter, with cold temperatures and a. Pronounced cold and flu peak in late winter. So this may become a hot spot if the virus behaves like other respiratory illnesses.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:45 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Japan is not actively looking for cases.
This is confirmed by the below map, showing that in the 10 days between Feb. 17 and 26th, only 352 tests had been taken in Tokyo, about 300 in Chiba and 822 in Kanagawa. The 822 from Kanagawa may include tests taken from people on the Diamond Princess in the port of Yokohama, Kanagawa.

Over the 10 days, only 4200 tests had been taken, an average of just 400 per day.

Image

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202003 ... 61000.html

This is outrageous, even the NHK (national media) is reporting on this after carrying their own investigation.


The map in question has vanished, it is obvious that Japan is censoring a lot of information, even stuff published by their own national TV station.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:55 am

DPAT, Japan's disaster psychiatric assistance team said during a press conference that their intervention on the Diamond Princess was the worst that they have ever had to deal with. They faced many unexpected situations, people became suicidal, claustrophobic, worried about being infected, or felt the urge to leave their cabins at any cost. One DPAT team member became infected. DPAT people have also assisted during major natural disasters, including the aftermath of the Fukushima disaster and Tohoku earthquake.
http://www.news24.jp/sp/articles/2020/0 ... 04128.html
 
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scbriml
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:33 am

Derico wrote:
Why is the death rate in that US state (Washington I believe), so high?? 27 cases and 9 deaths? That's appalling for a rich nation.


Old and frail people die from flu all the time. It doesn't matter how rich they their country is.
 
melpax
Posts: 2167
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:37 am

This is a Costco & a Coles Supermarket in suburban Melbourne. The Supermarket is actually one of my local ones, I was only there on Sunday night, the shelves looked well-shopped then, but nothing like what it is now.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zN47IYKmr0s
 
max999
Posts: 1276
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2005 11:05 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:43 am

scbriml wrote:
Derico wrote:
Why is the death rate in that US state (Washington I believe), so high?? 27 cases and 9 deaths? That's appalling for a rich nation.


Old and frail people die from flu all the time. It doesn't matter how rich they their country is.


I disagree with your lack of concern for three reasons:

1) there's no vaccine for this like the seasonal flu (even if the flu vaccine is not 100% effective, it's better than nothing)
2) the virus is new to humans so there's no existing level of immunity in the population
3) the death rate for the old and frail appears to be higher than the seasonal flu. The most comprehensive numbers of the mortality numbers so far show people who have underlying cardiovascular issues have a mortality rate of nearly 10%.
 
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Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2541
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:52 am

Derico wrote:
Why is the death rate in that US state (Washington I believe), so high?? 27 cases and 9 deaths? That's appalling for a rich nation.

The virus has now reached the Southern Come with one case each in Argentina and Chile respectively. This is important because while everyone has until now been talking about warmer weather coming up and the possible effect to slow the virus down, let's remember the southern Cone of South America experiences a proper winter, with cold temperatures and a. Pronounced cold and flu peak in late winter. So this may become a hot spot if the virus behaves like other respiratory illnesses.


Because it got into a nursing home, the absolute worst place for this virus. It's a bunch of people of the highest possible risk group all crowded together into a shared space. Our confirmed case count nationally is also well over 27. However most (is it all?) of the deaths are from that same nursing home.
 
theaviator380
Posts: 682
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:44 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:00 am

I am cancelling my US holiday in early part of Apr (as I don't want to risk it with my young kids) but earliest opportunity I have is in October....any educated guess whether situation will improve by then and won't be a big risk? I can understand and imagine, this virus is going to stay for a while and perhaps forever but mad scenes we have at the min doesn't give me confidence to travel with kids.
 
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Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2541
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:25 am

tootallsd wrote:
I wanted to take a moment to thank the many contributors to this thread. I have been able to form some useful opinions based on the many pieces of data provided. I've been reading through all the posts over the past week. And so far, it has been theoretical -- what do we do if / when, etc. What should we do now. Then all of a sudden, in an instance that theoretical is brought home with an instance that is one degree of separation. A good friend attended a company meeting in Italy two weeks ago. 8 of 40 participants have been diagnosed. Three are hospitalized. CDC confirmed his infection today and so far looks like he is experiencing a mild case.

My frustration (second hand) that the US system failed initially in helping with his issue. He visited his primary care (well actually the substitute of the substitute doctor) who focused on his pre-existing upper-respiratory issue that he had been fighting since December. Over the weekend a call to his closest hospital yielded the advice, that as it is a virus you have to tough it out. Yes, you can come in, but we have no care to offer. Pretty shocking when we talk about all the efforts to monitor infection spread and contacts. Monday morning, the nurse practitioner in his primary physician took charge. Got hold of the regional CDC office and he had a test scheduled within a couple of hours.

The test protocol seemed a bit surreal. He was told to drive to their office and park. Don't leave the car. Call when you've arrived and we will come to you. Two techs in hazmat (finally it is seeming real) came to the car and took a throat swab and nasal culture. They assured him he would have results by the following day (today) and to go home and remain in isolation.

Sure enough his positive result came in today. Additional instructions on how to split up the household and then a trip to a hospital for further observation. He's currently there and I'm curious to hear next steps for him and his partner.


Sounds like his primary care doctor needs to self isolate now...

Also yeah, the rules we had and the limited tests was a pretty dysfunctional way to protect our country. Did you have contact with the person?

theaviator380 wrote:
I am cancelling my US holiday in early part of Apr (as I don't want to risk it with my young kids) but earliest opportunity I have is in October....any educated guess whether situation will improve by then and won't be a big risk? I can understand and imagine, this virus is going to stay for a while and perhaps forever but mad scenes we have at the min doesn't give me confidence to travel with kids.


Kids are actually pretty safe. No one younger than 10 has died. I'm increasingly convinced it's purely the immune response that's killing people.

And it's totally sparing the kids. But I've heard it has left orphans in China. October is a bad season for kids getting sick with lots of colds. It's that pre flu season cold season. April might be still safe here, but situation is changing so rapidly you could accidentally be in an outbreak area.
 
Derico
Posts: 4497
Joined: Mon Dec 20, 1999 9:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:48 am

Jouhou wrote:

Because it got into a nursing home, the absolute worst place for this virus. It's a bunch of people of the highest possible risk group all crowded together into a shared space. Our confirmed case count nationally is also well over 27. However most (is it all?) of the deaths are from that same nursing home.


Yes I can understand to some extent this, but I had already counted this possibility. I still feel it's rather high because I don't think the death rate among 65+ age people is 33% in Europe, Korea, China, etc... Unless the people in that facility where severely ill people already on machines, etc.
 
N757ST
Posts: 1116
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2002 6:00 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:01 pm

Derico wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

Because it got into a nursing home, the absolute worst place for this virus. It's a bunch of people of the highest possible risk group all crowded together into a shared space. Our confirmed case count nationally is also well over 27. However most (is it all?) of the deaths are from that same nursing home.


Yes I can understand to some extent this, but I had already counted this possibility. I still feel it's rather high because I don't think the death rate among 65+ age people is 33% in Europe, Korea, China, etc... Unless the people in that facility where severely ill people already on machines, etc.


No one, not even the WHO know what the death rate of this thing is. We have no clue what the denominator is. Without that we have no clue what the death rate is. 327 million people in the USA and 9 so far have passed away with 100 infected. So far we haven’t seen the runaway numbers that we have been told are coming, let’s hope SOMETHING is preventing that, whether it’s a misunderstanding of how this thing spreads or general awareness has forced people to isolate themselves more frequently when exhibiting symptoms. I read an article earlier that flu spreads significantly while asymptotic, where as so far this virus, while it had rumors of doing so earlier, might not be doing so. That’d be a game changer, and it’d make isolating patients far easier. I hope that’s the case.
 
theaviator380
Posts: 682
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:44 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:10 pm

theaviator380 wrote:
I am cancelling my US holiday in early part of Apr (as I don't want to risk it with my young kids) but earliest opportunity I have is in October....any educated guess whether situation will improve by then and won't be a big risk? I can understand and imagine, this virus is going to stay for a while and perhaps forever but mad scenes we have at the min doesn't give me confidence to travel with kids.


Kids are actually pretty safe. No one younger than 10 has died. I'm increasingly convinced it's purely the immune response that's killing people.

And it's totally sparing the kids. But I've heard it has left orphans in China. October is a bad season for kids getting sick with lots of colds. It's that pre flu season cold season. April might be still safe here, but situation is changing so rapidly you could accidentally be in an outbreak area.[/quote]

Thanks for response mate, I get what you mean ! This is what very difficult to assess atm, if we visit US and if outbreak happens then it would be an issue. I did read about immune system (Cytokines) response which damages the organs, very likely the case in most of the deaths.

I live in the UK, young kids (below 2-3 yrs of age, especially the ones who go to nurseries) often catch cold apart from 3 months of summer ! :P It's difficult and frustrating !!
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3610
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:14 pm

scbriml wrote:
Derico wrote:
Why is the death rate in that US state (Washington I believe), so high?? 27 cases and 9 deaths? That's appalling for a rich nation.


Old and frail people die from flu all the time. It doesn't matter how rich they their country is.


What I think is that there are definitely a fair amount of people in US that caught the virus, recovered, but were never tested for the virus, as they think it's "Just the flu".

CarbonFibre wrote:
UK well prepared.


But only the women are prepared, though. The men are screwed. :duck:
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:29 pm

An infant is in intensive care in Bergamo, Italy.

https://www.lastampa.it/cronaca/2020/03 ... 1.38545356

https://www.ragusanews.com/2020/03/03/c ... ave/106305


The Italian goverment has ordered all schools and universities closed until March 15th.

https://www.corriere.it/scuola/20_marzo ... 0d01.shtml


Healthy children are generally spared, but it can become very dangerous very fast even for children when the infection happens at the same time as a bacterial or other viral infection, or if children have a condition. Children who are already in hospitals face a larger risk.
The problem is that schools are where epidemics start.

A coworker of mine returned from Rome, Italy last week and is reporting an incredibly painful throat.
I suggested him to get tested, and I would prefer if he stays home...This while the company has issued clear directives concerning staying home if feeling sick.
The big problem is that if he gets tested and is postive, this risks shutting down our entire company now.

So "stay home if you feel sick" is not going to keep people from showing up at the workplace ill, this will definitely not work as a containment method.
 
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trpmb6
Posts: 3018
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:45 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:42 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
So "stay home if you feel sick" is not going to keep people from showing up at the workplace ill, this will definitely not work as a containment method.


Particularly when you could have it and not even know it. This is global, far more people actually have it than is being reported and that is causing the numbers to look worse than they really are. To make matters worse, we don't have the adequate testing capabilities yet and it appears there may even be a second strain of this thing (though the study was limited to just 103 patients). The encouraging news from this limited study is that it appears the more severe of the strains may have contained itself due to its increased severity.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronav ... id-19.html
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3610
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:42 pm

cpd wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Depends on where you live. My current place has nice dry cool basement, I can keep a decade supply of toilet paper without any worry. Once upon a time, we even actually bought a biggest pack - 96 rolls if not more - and used it up in a few months, no waste.
Place I used to live 15 years ago would struggle with 2 extra rolls, though.


I stand corrected. I make my statements based on news from Hong Kong telling people to stop stocking toilet papers, literally, due to bug issues.

HK, of course, has high humidity, which definitely doesn't help :).


I’m Australia too, or maybe it is those buyers shipping things overseas at inflated prices:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 546md.html

I should sell some packs online, $50 each. Hand sanitizer is sold out everywhere, now toilet paper shortages. What next?

Edit: at a nearby supermarket:

https://mobile.twitter.com/angrykid457/ ... 7477142528

Probably daigou buyer?


Oh...you can bet that it's some daigou buyer...(On a side note - I actually didn't realized that the term "daigou" make it into daily lingo in Down Under :)).

Waterbomber2 wrote:
A coworker of mine returned from Rome, Italy last week and is reporting an incredibly painful throat.
I suggested him to get tested, and I would prefer if he stays home...This while the company has issued clear directives concerning staying home if feeling sick.
The big problem is that if he gets tested and is postive, this risks shutting down our entire company now.


Best wish...hopefully it's not nCoV and even if it is, it didn't get spreaded to you and rest of your coworkers :(.
 
theaviator380
Posts: 682
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:44 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:54 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
An infant is in intensive care in Bergamo, Italy.

https://www.lastampa.it/cronaca/2020/03 ... 1.38545356

https://www.ragusanews.com/2020/03/03/c ... ave/106305


The Italian goverment has ordered all schools and universities closed until March 15th.

https://www.corriere.it/scuola/20_marzo ... 0d01.shtml


Healthy children are generally spared, but it can become very dangerous very fast even for children when the infection happens at the same time as a bacterial or other viral infection, or if children have a condition. Children who are already in hospitals face a larger risk.
The problem is that schools are where epidemics start.

A coworker of mine returned from Rome, Italy last week and is reporting an incredibly painful throat.
I suggested him to get tested, and I would prefer if he stays home...This while the company has issued clear directives concerning staying home if feeling sick.
The big problem is that if he gets tested and is postive, this risks shutting down our entire company now.

So "stay home if you feel sick" is not going to keep people from showing up at the workplace ill, this will definitely not work as a containment method.



Oh dear ! hope it's not Covid-19 and just a usual viral bleep.

Does anyone know any one thru anyone who has caught it and recovered without much of an issue? Not seen or read much in media about those apart from that initial case in the UK who caught it in Singapore.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4986
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:28 pm

Res Washington State, A genetics scientists at Hutchison notes that the first case and the cases at the nursing home are closely related. I liked to that in a previous post. The man in the first case acted appropriately for what was known at the time. More and faster testing may have prevented or reduced this. And luck plays a role.
 
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casinterest
Posts: 13844
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:51 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Well they just announced that Coronavirus made it to NC .

This person apparently went to a State of Washington Nursing home for a visit.

https://www.wral.com/wake-county-reside ... /18990198/

// and they did not walk or drive back


As I've continued to say, it's not contained, never will be and at this point people should just expect that this is going to run its course.


There are items such as sanitation and other thing that can help to contain it, but at this point it will run it's course, but of course that is only possible in the US where sick leave and real health care are luxuries.
 
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readytotaxi
Posts: 8048
Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2006 2:09 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:20 pm

In the UK some panic buying of Paracetamol because of what India has said, and toilet rolls because they saw it on the news in Australia. :roll:
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4986
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:22 pm

https://bedford.io/blog/

This is the Hutchinson scientist's blog. Two posts, one in January and one in March. They are longish, but easily understood.
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:05 pm

Tugger wrote:
"The media" is not the problem (or the enemy as some seem to want to portray). Misinformation is the problem (still not an enemy) and it takes some kind of non-cow mentality to actually discern what is important. You need to have some level of competence to live anywhere, otherwise you are just drifting along and will do and accept whatever someone tells you.


This came across the news feed today-

Democrats’ Misleading Coronavirus Claims
Democrats have criticized President Donald Trump for his administration’s response to the new coronavirus, making claims about cuts to public health programs and the silencing of government experts. But they haven’t always gotten their facts right:

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/democ ... us-claims/


Jouhou wrote:
Also yeah, the rules we had and the limited tests was a pretty dysfunctional way to protect our country.


Please, enough of the hysterical finger pointing. You lead the thread in that regard. As if the CDC had the ability to not only predict this particular virus but then create a RELIABLE test (which nobody else in the world has come up with either) and stock up millions of those tests - all in a matter of 60 days or so. Stop whining.

Jouhou wrote:
theaviator380 wrote:
I am cancelling my US holiday in early part of Apr (as I don't want to risk it with my young kids) but earliest opportunity I have is in October....any educated guess whether situation will improve by then and won't be a big risk? I can understand and imagine, this virus is going to stay for a while and perhaps forever but mad scenes we have at the min doesn't give me confidence to travel with kids.


Kids are actually pretty safe. No one younger than 10 has died. I'm increasingly convinced it's purely the immune response that's killing people.

And it's totally sparing the kids. But I've heard it has left orphans in China. October is a bad season for kids getting sick with lots of colds. It's that pre flu season cold season. April might be still safe here, but situation is changing so rapidly you could accidentally be in an outbreak area.


theaviator does not say from where he is travelling but at this point most regions of the US have seen little to no coronavirus. If one wanted to dodge the odds though, a more appropriate time would be during the warmer summer months when the virus has a shorter lifespan.
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:12 pm

readytotaxi wrote:
In the UK some panic buying of Paracetamol because of what India has said, and toilet rolls because they saw it on the news in Australia. :roll:


I really don't get this toilet paper thing. My wife asked somebody why they thought they had to buy a whole cart of toilet paper before other things- like food. The person said they heard coronavirus caused diarrhea and so.... Without getting too graphic, using toilet paper while having diarrhea is a complete pain in an inflamed butt. water baby, water. In fact, like much of Asia, my house does not use toilet paper for that chore, it is a filthy way to clean your hole.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 15721
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:19 pm

mham001 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
If one wanted to dodge the odds though, a more appropriate time would be during the warmer summer months when the virus has a shorter lifespan.


Source? Evidence?

That is a patently unscientific statement. “The virus might have a shorter lifespan in summer” - an assumption - would be better. There is absolutely no confirmatory consensus on the effect of temperature - this virus is doing fine now in Singapore where temps are routinely over 30C all year around, and another coronavirus, MERS, first appeared in Saudi Arabia - not exactly known for low temps. Enough with the misinformation already.

The CDC has already contradicted the US president, with Dr Nancy Messionnier telling reporters last month that it was too early to say the coronavirus was seasonal.

She said: "I think it's premature to assume that. We haven't been through even a single year with this pathogen."


https://news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavi ... s-11948121
 
art
Posts: 4173
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:35 pm

mham001 wrote:
they haven’t always gotten their facts right:


Don't know why you refer to facts. Facts became extinct in the US late 2016/early 2017. :(
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3610
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:36 pm

theaviator380 wrote:
Does anyone know any one thru anyone who has caught it and recovered without much of an issue? Not seen or read much in media about those apart from that initial case in the UK who caught it in Singapore.


There are tons of recovery with no after-effect. The hospitalization time on average (~2 weeks) is definitely longer than your average flu, though, although some of it are also precautions.

mham001 wrote:
I really don't get this toilet paper thing. My wife asked somebody why they thought they had to buy a whole cart of toilet paper before other things- like food. The person said they heard coronavirus caused diarrhea and so.... Without getting too graphic, using toilet paper while having diarrhea is a complete pain in an inflamed butt. water baby, water. In fact, like much of Asia, my house does not use toilet paper for that chore, it is a filthy way to clean your hole.


The misinformations out there is just as scary as the virus itself anyway.

The original run in HK was done b/c there was rumors of mainland China shutting down supplies to HK (Which is not only untrue, but mainland China only supplies ~20-30% of all toilet papers to HK). Then there was the one in Singapore for a similar reason (Which, as one of the SG minister call it, "Idiots" as Singapore gets most of those necessities from SE Asia i.e. Malaysia or Indonesia instead of China). Those in Australia or US or Japan are just ridiculous as there is not even any shutdown of manufacturing locally.

P.S. Water IS the solution to diarrhea...seriously, you can survive without toilet paper as long as you have clean water.
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 192
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:37 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
So "stay home if you feel sick" is not going to keep people from showing up at the workplace ill, this will definitely not work as a containment method.


Particularly when you could have it and not even know it. This is global, far more people actually have it than is being reported and that is causing the numbers to look worse than they really are. To make matters worse, we don't have the adequate testing capabilities yet and it appears there may even be a second strain of this thing (though the study was limited to just 103 patients). The encouraging news from this limited study is that it appears the more severe of the strains may have contained itself due to its increased severity.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronav ... id-19.html


I was not shocked to see that news today. I was telling people for 6 weeks this will inevitably mutate "down" as most new viruses do. It was just a question of when. The 2nd and newer strain is still dangerous but chances are that too will mutate in the next couple of months and when it does we could see this quiet down further. Its believed part of the reason SARS seemed to end is that mutated itself out. It may still be out there but we don't know it because its just like any other ordinary coronavirus now
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 192
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:40 pm

Jouhou wrote:
Derico wrote:
Why is the death rate in that US state (Washington I believe), so high?? 27 cases and 9 deaths? That's appalling for a rich nation.

The virus has now reached the Southern Come with one case each in Argentina and Chile respectively. This is important because while everyone has until now been talking about warmer weather coming up and the possible effect to slow the virus down, let's remember the southern Cone of South America experiences a proper winter, with cold temperatures and a. Pronounced cold and flu peak in late winter. So this may become a hot spot if the virus behaves like other respiratory illnesses.


Because it got into a nursing home, the absolute worst place for this virus. It's a bunch of people of the highest possible risk group all crowded together into a shared space. Our confirmed case count nationally is also well over 27. However most (is it all?) of the deaths are from that same nursing home.


It supposedly got into a nursing home in Milan too. I don't know if I saw any official source talk about it but I did see some Italian media saying it.
 
smolt
Posts: 276
Joined: Fri Nov 05, 1999 12:11 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:47 pm

Japanese Medical Association announced they found 30cases in 7 prefectures
of regional Public Heathcare Center rejecting test for suspected patients, notwithstanding
doctors approval of neccesity. Most of the Centers reasones was unclear, except 7 were symptom being not so serious, 1 was no history of traveling to China, 1 was no dense contact to the positive.

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6353078
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
Posts: 2258
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2012 5:39 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:15 pm

16 new cases in Stockholm today which makes it 52 in Sweden in total. 27 of the new cases had either been abroad or been in contact with someone who had been abroad.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/stock ... r-onsdagen
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:14 pm

Interesting interview of a Corona virus patient on Corriere.it .
Find below a summarised translation:


"I'm hospitalised since 10 days. My condition has worsened: I fainted on two occasions, I'm in bed hooked to oxygen, and I follow a morning and evening therapy, in addition to the fixed endovenous one. The fever has vanished since two days, but the lungs need help...
56 year old Alessandra is from Codogno, works at a living facility for seniors, has two children and a grandchild. She's hooked to oxygen day and night, she can't speak. She tells her experience by texting on her phone: her "only remaining connection with the outside world".


When have you realised that you were positive for the coronavirus?
«I had a fever after a night at work: bone pain, light cough, tried to treat it as influenza using parcetamol and mucus relief».


But you didn't get better...
«I was getting worse everyday. I called the 112, but I didn't have close contacts with known infected persons. After 9 days of high fever my children called again, a bit angry. The ambulance then arrived, they were all in hazmat suits...».


What did you think when they told you your diagnose?
«It felt like being in hell. They tell you but you don't know what comes next and it's best like that. The cure kills you. It bends your body, the stomach pain with nausea and vomit is acute, the fever makes you burn».

How do you feel now?
«Monday was my worst day. I felt powerless about my husband's hospitalisation in semi-intensive therapy at the Lodi hospital. I couldn't see a way out of this. I felt like I was suffocating. I would have liked to shout, because my dad is also hospitalised at Lodi... »


With coronavirus?
«Pneumonia, he doesn't have the test results yet».


In the hospital, do you have information about what's going on?
«Visits are not allowed. The room has two beds, the TV is turned to the other bed because only that bed has the earphones. The time doesn't go by».

And the doctors?
«They come in the morning, are gentle and available. The staff too, but they have instructions to enter as little as possible. Sometimes they knock on the glass...».

Who's in the room with you?
«A much younger lady, she's hospitalised since 12 days. She worsened, we both can't speak. The food too... you would like to finish it, but instead after 2 spoons you already have nausea».

What do you think about to get through this?
«About my 2 children, my husband. He's 58 years old and with his splendid blue eyes he has made us happy since we got married. In May it will be 33 years.... About my granddaughter who is 8 years old who sent me a picture through the phone. She drew the hospital room from her immagination.
Do you understand now?».

Understand what?
«I hope to have been clear: this is not just another flu».

https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cron ... 0d01.shtml


Note: If this is the "light" version of Covid19, I don't want to know what the "heavy" version is like.
 
BigBazza
Posts: 16
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 2:02 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:43 pm

Chinese researchers identify two strains of novel coronavirus
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-w ... jEJERckWGc

"The prevalence of the more aggressive virus type decreased after early January 2020, they said."
 
BigBazza
Posts: 16
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 2:02 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:46 pm

Also, this:
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-w ... U0xF2IgHys

"When it took a close look at what’s happening in China, WHO concluded 2% to 4% of patients in the city of Wuhan — the outbreak’s epicenter where a flood of early severe cases overwhelmed health centers — had died."
"By the time people elsewhere in China were getting sick, authorities were better able to test for the virus and uncover people with mild cases. Consequently, the death rate in the rest of the country was strikingly lower, 0.7%."
So potentially the more aggressive strain was contained in Wuhan, and the milder strain is what is spreading worldwide...
 
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2703
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:34 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
«I hope to have been clear: this is not just another flu».

https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cron ... 0d01.shtml


Note: If this is the "light" version of Covid19, I don't want to know what the "heavy" version is like.


That sounds rough. I hope she makes it. Everyone should read this.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2823
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:07 am

I am afraid we are getting close to the re-acceleration of infections and entering the second stage of exponential growth. The graph of Total Cases on this page seems to be steeping by the day: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Especially those countries that had a low number of cases have seen 10-fold increases over the last couple of days while Iran and Italy are in a race to see who will become #3 with respect to Total Cases.
Actually, for all the advanced medicine practiced in Italy it is still slightly ahead of Iran.
 
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DIRECTFLT
Posts: 2655
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:00 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:49 am

Los Angeles County Declares Emergency as California Reports First Coronavirus-Related Death

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/ ... es-1282485

Los Angeles County on Wednesday declared an emergency with six new cases of coronavirus announced. The Los Angeles County cases were confirmed Tuesday night and all the new cases were linked to a known exposure source, officials said. Ages, genders and locations of the patients were not specified.

The Gov. of NY was quick to give out the information on their outbreak, but LA County remains tight lipped about the particulars. I guess someone there decides who needs to know. Comforting.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:55 am

I finally received a sign of life from one my business partners in China.
The lady living about 300km North of Wuhan was allowed to clear the lockdown and travel to Shenzhen to resume work.
The company in Shenzhen has resumed operations at full steam.
I don't know what to think of this, considering the risk that the virus will expand again from other locations.
 
N757ST
Posts: 1116
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2002 6:00 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:57 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Interesting interview of a Corona virus patient on Corriere.it .
Find below a summarised translation:


"I'm hospitalised since 10 days. My condition has worsened: I fainted on two occasions, I'm in bed hooked to oxygen, and I follow a morning and evening therapy, in addition to the fixed endovenous one. The fever has vanished since two days, but the lungs need help...
56 year old Alessandra is from Codogno, works at a living facility for seniors, has two children and a grandchild. She's hooked to oxygen day and night, she can't speak. She tells her experience by texting on her phone: her "only remaining connection with the outside world".


When have you realised that you were positive for the coronavirus?
«I had a fever after a night at work: bone pain, light cough, tried to treat it as influenza using parcetamol and mucus relief».


But you didn't get better...
«I was getting worse everyday. I called the 112, but I didn't have close contacts with known infected persons. After 9 days of high fever my children called again, a bit angry. The ambulance then arrived, they were all in hazmat suits...».


What did you think when they told you your diagnose?
«It felt like being in hell. They tell you but you don't know what comes next and it's best like that. The cure kills you. It bends your body, the stomach pain with nausea and vomit is acute, the fever makes you burn».

How do you feel now?
«Monday was my worst day. I felt powerless about my husband's hospitalisation in semi-intensive therapy at the Lodi hospital. I couldn't see a way out of this. I felt like I was suffocating. I would have liked to shout, because my dad is also hospitalised at Lodi... »


With coronavirus?
«Pneumonia, he doesn't have the test results yet».


In the hospital, do you have information about what's going on?
«Visits are not allowed. The room has two beds, the TV is turned to the other bed because only that bed has the earphones. The time doesn't go by».

And the doctors?
«They come in the morning, are gentle and available. The staff too, but they have instructions to enter as little as possible. Sometimes they knock on the glass...».

Who's in the room with you?
«A much younger lady, she's hospitalised since 12 days. She worsened, we both can't speak. The food too... you would like to finish it, but instead after 2 spoons you already have nausea».

What do you think about to get through this?
«About my 2 children, my husband. He's 58 years old and with his splendid blue eyes he has made us happy since we got married. In May it will be 33 years.... About my granddaughter who is 8 years old who sent me a picture through the phone. She drew the hospital room from her immagination.
Do you understand now?».

Understand what?
«I hope to have been clear: this is not just another flu».

https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cron ... 0d01.shtml


Note: If this is the "light" version of Covid19, I don't want to know what the "heavy" version is like.



Considering the need to use supplemental oxygen for as long as she has, I don’t think you can define her case as at all “mild”.

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