Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:03 am

Japanese PM Abe is holding talks with opposition parties about modifying the law to enable the PM to declare a state of emergency and take exceptional measures such as establishing a lockdown.
So far, it seems that the opposition is agreeing if the PM consults the parliament first to justify the measures, that the measures are as localised and as limited in time as possible, and not meant primarily to restrict people's movements, a constitutional right.

This means that Japan is preparing for a possible lockdown.



If the law is amended and once a state of emergency is declared by the prime minister for specific parts of the country, prefectural governors can accordingly demand that residents stay indoors, call for school closures and limit the use of facilities in which large numbers of people gather.

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020 ... -1000.html
 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2703
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:10 am

The Coronavirus has mutated into two types:

S-Type (Old strain - 30% of cases): Gives mild symptoms and is mildly infectious

L-Type (New strain - 70% of cases): Gives more severe symptoms and is highly infectious


... and here's the kicker - you can be infected by both strains at the same time.

from The Telegraph:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/202 ... cientists/
 
dampfnudel
Posts: 600
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:42 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:16 am

JetBuddy wrote:
The Coronavirus has mutated into two types:

S-Type (Old strain - 30% of cases): Gives mild symptoms and is mildly infectious

L-Type (New strain - 70% of cases): Gives more severe symptoms and is highly infectious


... and here's the kicker - you can be infected by both strains at the same time.

from The Telegraph:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/202 ... cientists/

I wonder if the new strain (L-Type) is present in Italy?
 
msnav
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:41 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:08 am

dampfnudel wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
The Coronavirus has mutated into two types:

S-Type (Old strain - 30% of cases): Gives mild symptoms and is mildly infectious

L-Type (New strain - 70% of cases): Gives more severe symptoms and is highly infectious


... and here's the kicker - you can be infected by both strains at the same time.

from The Telegraph:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/202 ... cientists/

I wonder if the new strain (L-Type) is present in Italy?


That article is clickbaity and a bit misleading. If you read the paper that is linked in the article The L strain was more prevalent in Wuhan but has decreased notably since January the S strain is spreading more now since it is less severe so it propagates more easily as less medical attention is being paid to its cases
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 15697
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:19 am

msnav wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
The Coronavirus has mutated into two types:

S-Type (Old strain - 30% of cases): Gives mild symptoms and is mildly infectious

L-Type (New strain - 70% of cases): Gives more severe symptoms and is highly infectious


... and here's the kicker - you can be infected by both strains at the same time.

from The Telegraph:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/202 ... cientists/

I wonder if the new strain (L-Type) is present in Italy?


That article is clickbaity and a bit misleading. If you read the paper that is linked in the article The L strain was more prevalent in Wuhan but has decreased notably since January the S strain is spreading more now since it is less severe so it propagates more easily as less medical attention is being paid to its cases


Direct link to the paper here:

https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-ar ... 36/5775463
 
User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Posts: 11881
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:10 am

Update on #ToiletPaperGate here in Australia, this is getting ridiculous

A man has been tasered by police after an altercation after he assaulted 2 people over toilet paper at a Big W store in NSW today

https://twitter.com/7NewsSydney/status/ ... 58752?s=20
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 5893
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:17 am

qf789 wrote:
Update on #ToiletPaperGate here in Australia, this is getting ridiculous

A man has been tasered by police after an altercation after he assaulted 2 people over toilet paper at a Big W store in NSW today

https://twitter.com/7NewsSydney/status/ ... 58752?s=20


If this virus has taught us one thing, it is that, collectively, people around the World are dumb as hell.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:13 am

Domino effect in The Netherlands.
Dozens of medical workers and patients have been isolated after nurses and doctors at 3 different hospitals in Amsterdam, Den Bosch and Eindhoven got infected by incoming patients who were later diagnosed with the virus.

https://nos.nl/artikel/2325850-ook-ziek ... orona.html


This is what happens when you don't take this seriously and don't take precautions as a professional.

This is nasty, it shows that despite all the warnings and guidelines being issued, medical staff are not taking the necessary precautions.
"ain't gonna happen to me".
In so doing, they take down entire hospital departments and make the situation much worse.

Italy has set up triage tents in front of hospitals.
Belgian hospitals have a separate entrance and waiting area for potential Corona patients.
The Netherlands need to kick it up a notch if they don't want to end up on the podium.
 
DLFREEBIRD
Posts: 1605
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:07 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:22 am

Jouhou wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

True, too expensive for 'the model of healthcare of the world' Norway. Thankfully for us here in the states despite all its imperfections and being the most expensive health care systems in the world, we are the most prepared country on earth for a pandemic. https://www.ghsindex.org/

On another subject, when will China come clean and say where this virus came from, the 'bat' theory was debunked, so its still all a mystery how this came about.


Healthcare in Norway is cheap. But the standard of care is 10 years behind what is available in the US. And then I mean medical equipment like the latest types of MRI machines, prescription drugs and the time you have to wait for treatment. If you go to a private clinic to pay out of pocket, you will get faster medical help. But the Government has restricted the type of care and methods of treatment you receive in the private sector to what the public health care system can provide. So you have people literally dying of illnesses that could have been cured, all in the name of socialism - because everybody is supposed to be equal. So now you have patients selling their house and going to Eastern Europe or to the US to pay for medical help they absolutely need - that isn't available in Norway, because some politician's ideology decided it shouldn't be.

Sorry for the rant. I've been struggling with health issues the last 4 years, this has been my experience. :cry:


You have no idea how hard getting an MRI done is in the US... Insurance will do everything in its power to not cover it and the wait is insane. I think it's a global problem, too many people, not enough infrastructure. Because humanity in general doesn't want to cough up the money in the long run even though people individually will give up everything when they're already sick.

Humans have the gift of being able to plan for the future, but they rarely utilize that ability. People have a bad habit of only planning for the moment.



I'm going on my 3rd MRI this month. spine, brain, and now they just told me I have to go back and have the spine done differently than before lumbosacral . When I make the appointment it usually takes 3 weeks before they can fit me in. I have to have it done every year. I pay 20 percent so it cost me 200.00 each time so 600.00 for all three. my insurance company covers it, and has never fought me on it. but, I have MS
 
User avatar
csturdiv
Posts: 2006
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2005 10:33 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:21 am

qf789 wrote:
Update on #ToiletPaperGate here in Australia, this is getting ridiculous

A man has been tasered by police after an altercation after he assaulted 2 people over toilet paper at a Big W store in NSW today

https://twitter.com/7NewsSydney/status/ ... 58752?s=20


I am hoping that one thing is learned. I hope that the manager of my local Woolies finally realises what and what does not sell, even during this stupid panic buying and no longer carries it and stocks more of what sells. Felt like some pasta tonight and went to Woolies, no pasta, except for a lot of sun-dried tomato infused pasta or whatever, I guess in panic buying not even that sells. I can only hope.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2541
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:40 am

Derico wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

Because it got into a nursing home, the absolute worst place for this virus. It's a bunch of people of the highest possible risk group all crowded together into a shared space. Our confirmed case count nationally is also well over 27. However most (is it all?) of the deaths are from that same nursing home.


Yes I can understand to some extent this, but I had already counted this possibility. I still feel it's rather high because I don't think the death rate among 65+ age people is 33% in Europe, Korea, China, etc... Unless the people in that facility where severely ill people already on machines, etc.


That's what those places are for, the elderly who just need a little extra assistance are in assisted living facilities, being cared for by family, or have an assistant at home.
 
melpax
Posts: 2165
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:16 am

Australian supermarket chains now have imposed quantity limits on toilet paper (if they have it), larger bags of rice, and hand sanitizer (now sold at the front service desk alongside cigarettes...)

https://www.news.com.au/finance/busines ... b664cf14be

At least 80 staff across 2 Sydney hospitals are in quarantine after 2 doctors were diagnosed - nether had treated any Coronavirus patients or had travelled overseas.
Consideration now being given to re-employ recently retired doctors & nurses if the need arises.....

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/med ... 54777.html
 
716131
Posts: 892
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:51 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:20 am

Well, I heard China is shutting down Wuhan short lived Hospital very soon. But the spread has gone way bigger and worst across Europe lately (Except Russia, Ukraine and Turkey).
 
JJJ
Posts: 4108
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:08 am

melpax wrote:
Australian supermarket chains now have imposed quantity limits on toilet paper (if they have it), larger bags of rice, and hand sanitizer (now sold at the front service desk alongside cigarettes...)


This toilet paper mania baffles me.
 
melpax
Posts: 2165
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:44 am

JJJ wrote:

This toilet paper mania baffles me.


It's baffling most people here as well!
 
BigBazza
Posts: 16
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 2:02 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:02 pm

More cases in Australia, “A public school in Sydney will be shut on Friday after a 16-year-old boy was diagnosed with the virus.”
https://7news.com.au/news/nsw/epping-bo ... s-c-731670
 
theaviator380
Posts: 682
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:44 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:09 pm

melpax wrote:
JJJ wrote:

This toilet paper mania baffles me.


It's baffling most people here as well!


The reason in simple I guess, people are worried about China style lockdown if situation becomes critical....so toilet roll becomes very important essential commodity? Not everyone can and is comfortable using water to clean their...... :bigthumbsup:
 
kalvado
Posts: 3225
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:26 pm

theaviator380 wrote:
melpax wrote:
JJJ wrote:

This toilet paper mania baffles me.


It's baffling most people here as well!


The reason in simple I guess, people are worried about China style lockdown if situation becomes critical....so toilet roll becomes very important essential commodity? Not everyone can and is comfortable using water to clean their...... :bigthumbsup:

well... start saving newspapers...
 
User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Posts: 11881
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:09 pm

kalvado wrote:
theaviator380 wrote:
melpax wrote:

It's baffling most people here as well!


The reason in simple I guess, people are worried about China style lockdown if situation becomes critical....so toilet roll becomes very important essential commodity? Not everyone can and is comfortable using water to clean their...... :bigthumbsup:

well... start saving newspapers...


Or just buy the NT news

Image

https://twitter.com/TheNTNews/status/12 ... 71329?s=20
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2807
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:27 pm

Jouhou wrote:
Derico wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

Because it got into a nursing home, the absolute worst place for this virus. It's a bunch of people of the highest possible risk group all crowded together into a shared space. Our confirmed case count nationally is also well over 27. However most (is it all?) of the deaths are from that same nursing home.


Yes I can understand to some extent this, but I had already counted this possibility. I still feel it's rather high because I don't think the death rate among 65+ age people is 33% in Europe, Korea, China, etc... Unless the people in that facility where severely ill people already on machines, etc.


That's what those places are for, the elderly who just need a little extra assistance are in assisted living facilities, being cared for by family, or have an assistant at home.


Name change needed: "Assisted Dying Facilities".
 
cskok8
Posts: 117
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 3:37 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:32 pm

 
theaviator380
Posts: 682
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:44 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:55 pm

I heard un-confirmed news that India have suspended visas for certain countries (Italy, Iran)

Half of positive patients in India are Italian tourists....this is where I don't get it, tourists usually arrive in bunch, it is highly likely they are not bag packers as such who are in India for number of months...sounds like mostly charter tourists who usually go for 2 weeks etc. It was well known fact that Italy had a proper outbreak and they couldn't contain it? So knowing this, most of the countries should have banned Italy nationals to enter in their countries? Failure to do so results in further issues !! Taxi driver who drove some of them is also tested positive.

This is not for just India - Italy, many countries have taken it lightly from day 1 and should have been more pro active on this.

Just my 2 pence.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3610
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:09 pm

cskok8 wrote:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-51747892

How tragic!


Hopefully the lorry driver is alright.

But damn...there goes a bunch of toilet paper :(.

theaviator380 wrote:
I heard un-confirmed news that India have suspended visas for certain countries (Italy, Iran)


https://www.livemint.com/news/india/gov ... 53092.html

Italy, Iran, South Korea, and Japan are added to the list, in addition to China which was added a month ago.

Francoflier wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Update on #ToiletPaperGate here in Australia, this is getting ridiculous

A man has been tasered by police after an altercation after he assaulted 2 people over toilet paper at a Big W store in NSW today

https://twitter.com/7NewsSydney/status/ ... 58752?s=20


If this virus has taught us one thing, it is that, collectively, people around the World are dumb as hell.


You can't fix stupid indeed...

Hong Kong was the butt of the joke when a group of people robbed a delivery truck carrying toilet papers around two weeks ago (See: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51527043). That man from Down Under takes it another step :banghead: .

Actually, can we officially declare stupidity a "global pandemic"? Stupid people doing stupid stuff is definitely scarier than nCoV itself :banghead:
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3610
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:27 pm

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/05/health/c ... index.html

Another Princess Cruise Ship is on alert after a man that was onboard 2 weeks ago was diagnosed with nCoV and die (the first death in California).

On a side note - even if it turns out that there's no widespread outbreak onboard that ship, it'll just further hurt the cruise industry as nobody in the right mind will risk being quarantined just b/c they took a trip on a cruise ship.
 
FCAFLYBOY
Posts: 690
Joined: Sun Nov 05, 2006 5:03 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:56 pm

Big increase in UK numbers today, up to 115 currently from just 35 cases 48 hours ago. To be expected of course, and 25 cases confirmed in London alone...

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... 0-11950018
 
theaviator380
Posts: 682
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:44 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:06 pm

FCAFLYBOY wrote:
Big increase in UK numbers today, up to 115 currently from just 35 cases 48 hours ago. To be expected of course, and 25 cases confirmed in London alone...

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... 0-11950018


Rather surprised knowing how crowded Tubes (TFL) can be.....NHS claiming virus is likely to stay active for upto 3 days on surfaces such as door handles, handrails etc.

I had said to someone, number is likely to go around 75 by Friday but 115 today is high and little alarming at this stage imo.
 
FCAFLYBOY
Posts: 690
Joined: Sun Nov 05, 2006 5:03 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:17 pm

theaviator380 wrote:
FCAFLYBOY wrote:
Big increase in UK numbers today, up to 115 currently from just 35 cases 48 hours ago. To be expected of course, and 25 cases confirmed in London alone...

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... 0-11950018


Rather surprised knowing how crowded Tubes (TFL) can be.....NHS claiming virus is likely to stay active for upto 3 days on surfaces such as door handles, handrails etc.

I had said to someone, number is likely to go around 75 by Friday but 115 today is high and little alarming at this stage imo.


It has, as predicted, more or less doubled daily for the last few days. 36 to 50, 50 to 70 now up to 115 from 89 yesterday. I suspect actual numbers are already much higher to be fair. Would not be surprised to cases in the 0000’s say 1000-2000 by early next week.
 
art
Posts: 4173
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:33 pm

First death in England where the victim, with pre-existing medical problems, tested positive for COVID-19. This was reported by the Royal Berkshire National Health Trust. Berkshire lies west of London, the easternmost part of Berkshire being about 50Km from the centre of London.
 
FCAFLYBOY
Posts: 690
Joined: Sun Nov 05, 2006 5:03 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:39 pm

art wrote:
First death in England where the victim, with pre-existing medical problems, tested positive for COVID-19. This was reported by the Royal Berkshire National Health Trust. Berkshire lies west of London, the easternmost part of Berkshire being about 50Km from the centre of London.


Source Sky News :

https://news.sky.com/
 
dampfnudel
Posts: 600
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:42 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:13 pm

qf789 wrote:
Update on #ToiletPaperGate here in Australia, this is getting ridiculous

A man has been tasered by police after an altercation after he assaulted 2 people over toilet paper at a Big W store in NSW today

https://twitter.com/7NewsSydney/status/ ... 58752?s=20

He’s definitely full of it. :D
 
User avatar
SheikhDjibouti
Posts: 2348
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 4:59 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:17 pm

FCAFLYBOY wrote:
art wrote:
First death in England where the victim, with pre-existing medical problems, tested positive for COVID-19. This was reported by the Royal Berkshire National Health Trust. Berkshire lies west of London, the easternmost part of Berkshire being about 50Km from the centre of London.

Source Sky News :https://news.sky.com/

Several things to note.
The easternmost part of Berkshire is in fact only 30km from the centre of London, but just as significantly it's only meters away from the threshold of LHR runway 09L.

However it is stated that the victim herself has not been abroad recently. So, if there is a connection to LHR, it is via a third party. Or a strong breeze.

FWIW her actual location was the Royal Berkshire Hospital, in Reading - central Berkshire.

The victim, in her 70's, had been "in and out of hospital for non-coronavirus reasons". Even so, it seems like this was caught very late, probably obscured by these underlying medical conditions which are to be expected in someone of that age.
I believe she was only tested for Coronavirus on Wednesday, and died on Thursday. Basically she never stood a chance.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 20089
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:36 pm

max999 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Derico wrote:
Why is the death rate in that US state (Washington I believe), so high?? 27 cases and 9 deaths? That's appalling for a rich nation.


Old and frail people die from flu all the time. It doesn't matter how rich they their country is.


I disagree with your lack of concern for three reasons:


I’m not sure how you interpret a “lack of concern”. :?
 
BigBazza
Posts: 16
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 2:02 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:29 pm

A “recovered” coronavirus patient has reportedly died after falling sick for a second time following his discharge from hospital.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... -new-cases

The Paper also reported that one of the makeshift hospital facilities in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak, had seen more discharged patients readmitted after falling ill again.
 
User avatar
cjg225
Posts: 2183
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2013 8:59 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:05 am

One of our manufacturing plants just sent out an email that essentially says all face-to-face contact with other people is forbidden outside of the manufacturing space. Unless you're actually on a manufacturing line, all meetings should be held by teleconference, all breaks and lunch should be taken at your desk, and you need to inform your manager if you are traveling outside the state, amongst other things.

I think we might be going a wee bit overboard.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2807
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:23 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Airliners seem to take a massive hit. Coronavirus is basically the biological version of 9/11. The Dow Jones US Airlines Index ($DJUSAR) is down 5%. Before this is over, add a zero to the drop (50%).


Looks like Gary Kelly CEO of Southwest agrees with me, says: "...coronavirus-driven fear of flying has a ‘9/11-like feel"

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/05/southwe ... -feel.html
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:25 am

Japan is imposing travel restrictions for China and South Korea, including a 14 day quarantine at a government assigned facility, port of entries limited to KIX and NRT, that could result in suspension of air traffic to/from those countries.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202003 ... s-main_001
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4977
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:28 am

scbriml wrote:
max999 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Old and frail people die from flu all the time. It doesn't matter how rich they their country is.


I disagree with your lack of concern for three reasons:


I’m not sure how you interpret a “lack of concern”. :?


30-40 years ago people in a nursing home were only a little sicker and a little more frail than old people who lived in their own home. (note - I am old now). But today a typical nursing home resident is almost as frail as a person just out of an ICU unit. Any major illness is likely to put them in a hospital, and usually in an ICU. It was a piece of bad luck that this virus hit first (and predictably hard) in a nursing home. Wife and I were traveling today on public transportation in the Seattle area. We waited until things would not be crowded. Saw only a couple masks. Friends and relatives report a lot more working from home, cancelled trips, more hand washing, and moderate social distancing.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:51 am

Japan's coronavirus infection rate could be 'tip of the iceberg' as experts call for more testing

Tokyo (CNN)Concerns are growing in Japan that the number of coronavirus cases could be higher than reported, with experts questioning the country's approach to testing as infection rates continue to climb.

But Japan's coronavirus figures are likely already much higher than reported, with the infection rate suspected to be just the "tip of the iceberg," according to Masahiro Kami, the executive director of Japan's Medical Governance Research Institute, a non-profit group.
Kami says for every one patient tested, there are many more who remain undiagnosed. But as most of these people are either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms they don't go to a clinic to get checked out.
Guidelines from the Health Ministry say people should get tested if they have cold-like symptoms, a fever of 37.5 Celsius, or experience extreme tiredness or breathing problems for four days or more. In the meantime, they should self-quarantine.

Inadequate testing scheme
In Japan's northern island of Hokkaido, the governor has declared a state of emergency. The popular tourist spot has been particularly hard hit, accounting for more than a quarter of all non-cruise ship related cases in the country.
But while the official number of people infected with coronavirus in Hokkaido may now be in the 80s, the actual number is likely to be ten times higher, said Hiroshi Nishiura, an epidemiologist at Hokkaido university. Nishiura, who is assisting the government in creating statistical models to help predict the spread of the virus, said the estimated figure is consistent with what he had seen in the Chinese city of Wuhan -- the epicenter of the outbreak.
Japan's Health Ministry, however, has so far refuted Nishiura's estimates. It suggested Japan is likely to have around 3,000 coronavirus cases in total. "We understand there are people we have not detected," the ministry said in a statement provided to CNN.


But critics have accused Abe of prioritizing the Olympics and bilateral ties over national security, particularly as Japan did not shut down its borders during the early stages of the outbreak.
"The Japanese government has taken relative soft stance when it comes to blocking the flow of people from China to Japan compared to some other countries," said Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University.
Nakano said this angered both Abe's supporters and opponents.



https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/05/asia ... index.html


Does my estimate of 100.000 cases a few days ago still sound crazy?
It's not because it's not reported that it isn't there.
 
art
Posts: 4173
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:56 am

Does my estimate of 100.000 cases a few days ago still sound crazy?


Not as crazy as it did.

I believe that Japan has quite a high percentage of citizens over 80 years in age. Even with severe undertesting returning a low number of infectees, a large number of people aged 80+ presenting to hospitals will indicate widespread infection, won't it?
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3610
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:03 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Japan's coronavirus infection rate could be 'tip of the iceberg' as experts call for more testing

Tokyo (CNN)Concerns are growing in Japan that the number of coronavirus cases could be higher than reported, with experts questioning the country's approach to testing as infection rates continue to climb.

But Japan's coronavirus figures are likely already much higher than reported, with the infection rate suspected to be just the "tip of the iceberg," according to Masahiro Kami, the executive director of Japan's Medical Governance Research Institute, a non-profit group.
Kami says for every one patient tested, there are many more who remain undiagnosed. But as most of these people are either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms they don't go to a clinic to get checked out.
Guidelines from the Health Ministry say people should get tested if they have cold-like symptoms, a fever of 37.5 Celsius, or experience extreme tiredness or breathing problems for four days or more. In the meantime, they should self-quarantine.

Inadequate testing scheme
In Japan's northern island of Hokkaido, the governor has declared a state of emergency. The popular tourist spot has been particularly hard hit, accounting for more than a quarter of all non-cruise ship related cases in the country.
But while the official number of people infected with coronavirus in Hokkaido may now be in the 80s, the actual number is likely to be ten times higher, said Hiroshi Nishiura, an epidemiologist at Hokkaido university. Nishiura, who is assisting the government in creating statistical models to help predict the spread of the virus, said the estimated figure is consistent with what he had seen in the Chinese city of Wuhan -- the epicenter of the outbreak.
Japan's Health Ministry, however, has so far refuted Nishiura's estimates. It suggested Japan is likely to have around 3,000 coronavirus cases in total. "We understand there are people we have not detected," the ministry said in a statement provided to CNN.


But critics have accused Abe of prioritizing the Olympics and bilateral ties over national security, particularly as Japan did not shut down its borders during the early stages of the outbreak.
"The Japanese government has taken relative soft stance when it comes to blocking the flow of people from China to Japan compared to some other countries," said Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University.
Nakano said this angered both Abe's supporters and opponents.



https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/05/asia ... index.html


Does my estimate of 100.000 cases a few days ago still sound crazy?
It's not because it's not reported that it isn't there.


10000 cases is more plausible. Consider how ugly things are in South Korea with ~6k cases, though, 10k is a disaster.

We will see if the non-DP cases hit 1000 by next week in Japan.
======================
Meanwhile, I just got back from a personal shopping trip.

Toilet Paper runs are definitely ongoing in US. And I live in Indiana...I can't imagine how things are like on the coasts.

Hand Sanitizers are selling out left and right. I did have a small stash as I brought some a few weeks ago.

Sigh...the hysteria is just insane.
 
User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Posts: 11881
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:27 am

dampfnudel wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Update on #ToiletPaperGate here in Australia, this is getting ridiculous

A man has been tasered by police after an altercation after he assaulted 2 people over toilet paper at a Big W store in NSW today

https://twitter.com/7NewsSydney/status/ ... 58752?s=20

He’s definitely full of it. :D


Here is another one

A Queensland woman has ended up with 2 pallets of toilet paper after ordered 48 cartons instead of 48 rolls, so she has over 2,000 rolls enough to last 12 years

https://twitter.com/7newsaustralia/stat ... 64609?s=21
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:46 am

Belgian virologist Van Ranst, department head at the reference lab for Covid19 testing for Belgium is painting a grim picture for the progression of the virus in the coming days.
"Yesterday there were 50 cases, today there will be 100, tomorrow there will be 200.
We expect the number of infections to double day after day for several more days.
How long the trend will be maintained is difficult to forecast.
By early May, the virus could come to its end.

https://www.hln.be/de-krant/-aantal-inf ... ~ae4ced98/
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2541
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:02 am

Anyone ever experience those last few seconds before a head on collision when you're a passenger and not the driver? Where you can see what's about to happen but the driver isn't reacting properly and you feel completely powerless? That's how I've felt the last couple of days. The U.S. reacted too slowly in its initial response, bungled testing, and is severely under prepared. We can't stop it now. I expect this to escalate rapidly in the next 2 weeks.
 
User avatar
cjg225
Posts: 2183
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2013 8:59 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:21 pm

qf789 wrote:
Here is another one

A Queensland woman has ended up with 2 pallets of toilet paper after ordered 48 cartons instead of 48 rolls, so she has over 2,000 rolls enough to last 12 years

https://twitter.com/7newsaustralia/stat ... 64609?s=21

Comforting to see sometimes the customer make the mistake.

It's worse when your order picker makes a unit-of-measure mistake like that and prepares for your customer 48 units instead of 48 cases or vice-versa.
 
max999
Posts: 1276
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2005 11:05 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:14 pm

cjg225 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Here is another one

A Queensland woman has ended up with 2 pallets of toilet paper after ordered 48 cartons instead of 48 rolls, so she has over 2,000 rolls enough to last 12 years

https://twitter.com/7newsaustralia/stat ... 64609?s=21

Comforting to see sometimes the customer make the mistake.

It's worse when your order picker makes a unit-of-measure mistake like that and prepares for your customer 48 units instead of 48 cases or vice-versa.


She may have a perfectly legitimate reason for all that toilet paper...like loose bowels.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 9100
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:30 pm

Didn't go back to local Costco, but it appears most got their annual supply of toilet paper, and there is some left on other store shelves.

One side effect of Run on Costco, the stock/day traders have jacked up the Costco stock price. This proves the intelligence level of financial analysts, they never realized if the supply chain has issues the symbolic Costco toilet paper sales also going to tank and the stock price down along with it. I hope individual investors are not caught in this.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2807
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:39 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Japan's coronavirus infection rate could be 'tip of the iceberg' as experts call for more testing

Tokyo (CNN)Concerns are growing in Japan that the number of coronavirus cases could be higher than reported, with experts questioning the country's approach to testing as infection rates continue to climb.

But Japan's coronavirus figures are likely already much higher than reported, with the infection rate suspected to be just the "tip of the iceberg," according to Masahiro Kami, the executive director of Japan's Medical Governance Research Institute, a non-profit group.
Kami says for every one patient tested, there are many more who remain undiagnosed. But as most of these people are either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms they don't go to a clinic to get checked out.
Guidelines from the Health Ministry say people should get tested if they have cold-like symptoms, a fever of 37.5 Celsius, or experience extreme tiredness or breathing problems for four days or more. In the meantime, they should self-quarantine.

Inadequate testing scheme
In Japan's northern island of Hokkaido, the governor has declared a state of emergency. The popular tourist spot has been particularly hard hit, accounting for more than a quarter of all non-cruise ship related cases in the country.
But while the official number of people infected with coronavirus in Hokkaido may now be in the 80s, the actual number is likely to be ten times higher, said Hiroshi Nishiura, an epidemiologist at Hokkaido university. Nishiura, who is assisting the government in creating statistical models to help predict the spread of the virus, said the estimated figure is consistent with what he had seen in the Chinese city of Wuhan -- the epicenter of the outbreak.
Japan's Health Ministry, however, has so far refuted Nishiura's estimates. It suggested Japan is likely to have around 3,000 coronavirus cases in total. "We understand there are people we have not detected," the ministry said in a statement provided to CNN.


But critics have accused Abe of prioritizing the Olympics and bilateral ties over national security, particularly as Japan did not shut down its borders during the early stages of the outbreak.
"The Japanese government has taken relative soft stance when it comes to blocking the flow of people from China to Japan compared to some other countries," said Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University.
Nakano said this angered both Abe's supporters and opponents.



https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/05/asia ... index.html


Does my estimate of 100.000 cases a few days ago still sound crazy?
It's not because it's not reported that it isn't there.


10000 cases is more plausible. Consider how ugly things are in South Korea with ~6k cases, though, 10k is a disaster.

We will see if the non-DP cases hit 1000 by next week in Japan.


Sounds about right. The currently reported number of 381 cases is just too low to be believable.
 
N757ST
Posts: 1116
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2002 6:00 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:54 pm

If there were 10000 cases or 100000 cases wouldn’t the hospitals be swarmed? If 15% of these cases require medical support you’d be looking at 1500-15000 ICU beds occupied. (That likely don’t exist) Same with Washington, wouldn’t there be a massive run on the hospitals by now? It could be that’s it’s early enough that these cases haven’t reached the severe threshold yet, or it could be that this thing is far more widespread but with a lot of less severe cases. I can’t imagine if this thing is running like wildfire throughout the world that there wouldn’t be stories yet of overflowing hospitals and a shortage of acute care. But again, we could be in the “grace” period and about to be hit with the anvil.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3610
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:17 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
One side effect of Run on Costco, the stock/day traders have jacked up the Costco stock price. This proves the intelligence level of financial analysts, they never realized if the supply chain has issues the symbolic Costco toilet paper sales also going to tank and the stock price down along with it. I hope individual investors are not caught in this.


There's not even a supply chain issue, at least for toilet paper, anyway. It's just that there's no way you can keep enough stock if every single shoppers going into your store is buying 2 packs, minimum, at a time.

Oh well, Costco will reap the profit either way - and I don't blame Costco for that, only stupid people.

N757ST wrote:
If there were 10000 cases or 100000 cases wouldn’t the hospitals be swarmed? If 15% of these cases require medical support you’d be looking at 1500-15000 ICU beds occupied. (That likely don’t exist) Same with Washington, wouldn’t there be a massive run on the hospitals by now? It could be that’s it’s early enough that these cases haven’t reached the severe threshold yet, or it could be that this thing is far more widespread but with a lot of less severe cases. I can’t imagine if this thing is running like wildfire throughout the world that there wouldn’t be stories yet of overflowing hospitals and a shortage of acute care. But again, we could be in the “grace” period and about to be hit with the anvil.


Yes - which is why I said even 10k cases in Japan would be a disaster. No medical system in the world is design to handle that, period.
 
716131
Posts: 892
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:51 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:46 pm

Japan asks visitors from China and South Korea be quarantined over COVID-19 from March 9 till 31 March.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/ ... mJiEkczZPY

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: art, LDRA, SRQLOT, yqmfan and 93 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos