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Derico
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Joined: Mon Dec 20, 1999 9:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:31 am

Argentine government to require home quarantine of two weeks for nationals and foreigners from the following: South Korea, Japan, Iran, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, and possibly Ecuador the United States after an Argentine doctor who was in Boston for a Corinna virus conference was diagnosed, and a US visitor is under observation"

"Corea del Sur, Japón, Irán, Italia, España, Francia y Alemania. Con las nuevas confirmaciones, habrá que ver si se incluye, además, a Ecuador y Estados Unidos, donde hay regiones con transmisión viral "
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:59 am

France has banned gatherings of 1,000 people or more and yet Disneyland Paris remains open for business, guess money really does talk.
you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
Growing older, but not up.
 
T4thH
Posts: 915
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:40 am

Germany. Official numbers from today, published by the RKI (Robert Koch Institut). Today: 09:am Please note, there can be a discrepancy by few hours and some of the states. These are the official numbers, which have been announced by the states on the regular way.
1112 confirmed Coronavirus cases in Germany,
0 live threatening
0 death.

One German (60 years old) died yesterday in Hurghada, Egypt.
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Fallzahlen.html

Global numbers as *.pdf, Today, 9:00 am 110.000 cases.
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Fallzahlen-international.pdf?__blob=publicationFile:

Global numbers: You can also check the WHO site, but regular the RKI numbers are more up to date.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd
 
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Aesma
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:27 am

readytotaxi wrote:
France has banned gatherings of 1,000 people or more and yet Disneyland Paris remains open for business, guess money really does talk.


Plenty of things are closed so money doesn't talk that much. The French government has its ass between two chairs, as we say here, trying to balance the speed of the epidemic with the effect on the economy, but I expect Italian style measures within a week.

One Disneyland staffer has been diagnosed positive, if they find another one I'm pretty sure it will be closed too.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:29 am

T4thH : there are inconsistent numbers in several countries but Germany's are very surprising, are they not testing patients that are in intensive care anyway ?

Or the virus has spread very quickly, very recently, and nobody fragile has been sick for 2 weeks yet ?
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
kalvado
Posts: 2666
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:09 pm

T4thH wrote:
Germany. Official numbers from today, published by the RKI (Robert Koch Institut). Today: 09:am Please note, there can be a discrepancy by few hours and some of the states. These are the official numbers, which have been announced by the states on the regular way.
1112 confirmed Coronavirus cases in Germany,
0 live threatening
0 death.

One German (60 years old) died yesterday in Hurghada, Egypt.
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Fallzahlen.html

Global numbers as *.pdf, Today, 9:00 am 110.000 cases.
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Fallzahlen-international.pdf?__blob=publicationFile:

Global numbers: You can also check the WHO site, but regular the RKI numbers are more up to date.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

0 deaths is pretty strange. Either Germany has way better diagnostics than anyone else, a milder strain of virus, or manipulate statistics. Hope for 2, suspect 3.
 
art
Posts: 3320
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:40 pm

kalvado wrote:
0 deaths is pretty strange. Either Germany has way better diagnostics than anyone else, a milder strain of virus, or manipulate statistics. Hope for 2, suspect 3.


What would be great (comparatively speaking) might be for a more benign mutated version to infect as many people as possible, if that precluded catching the nastier version, too, at the same time. If it subsequently gave immunity to the nastier version, that would be a big bonus. I think of the way in which it was observed that cowpox sufferers were unlikely to get smallpox. Since a vaccine is still some time away, might that not be the best course we can hope for?
Last edited by art on Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:49 pm

art wrote:
kalvado wrote:
0 deaths is pretty strange. Either Germany has way better diagnostics than anyone else, a milder strain of virus, or manipulate statistics. Hope for 2, suspect 3.


What would be great (comparatively speaking) might be for a more benign mutated version to infect as many people as possible, if that precluded catching the nastier version, too, at the same time. If it gave immunity to the nastier version, that would be a big bonus. I think of the way in which it was observed that cowpox sufferers were unlikely to get smallpox. Since a vaccine is still some time away, might that not be the best course we can hope for?

Germany published very few virus genetic sequences. that could give some hint.
Some countries (territories) publish a lot - China, Switzerland, Australia, UK, Netherlands, Washington state; some barely give any data (Germany, Italy), if any (NYS).
Genetic data may be not so important for treatment or crisis management, but absolutely invaluable for the understanding of epidemic propagation and presents a unique scientific opportunity.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:55 pm

From my understanding there are two strains and not only immunity to one doesn't immunize you from the other, but you can get both at the same time !
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:33 pm

Aesma wrote:
From my understanding there are two strains and not only immunity to one doesn't immunize you from the other, but you can get both at the same time !

Phylogenetic tree has 4 visibly big branches right now, and difference between them is not huge in terms of genetic variations.
 
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cjg225
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:15 pm

Not sure what this Italian quarantine is really doing, ultimately.

Internally, I guess some of our facilities in Europe are going to reject people coming on site who have been to the Italian quarantine zone recently.

Our providers are telling us that there's no real restriction on cargo flowing into and out of the quarantine zone, though. Something about the quarantine zone being an "orange" zone now instead of a "red" zone.
Restoring Penn State's transportation heritage...
 
kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:25 pm

cjg225 wrote:
Not sure what this Italian quarantine is really doing, ultimately.

Internally, I guess some of our facilities in Europe are going to reject people coming on site who have been to the Italian quarantine zone recently.

Our providers are telling us that there's no real restriction on cargo flowing into and out of the quarantine zone, though. Something about the quarantine zone being an "orange" zone now instead of a "red" zone.

Goal is not to lock out infection, that option is already gone. This is about gaining some time for more orderly response.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:51 pm

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Are open borders within Europe sustainable?
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Are open border between the states sustainable? LOL

Very funny, is each state a different country? last time I checked they weren't. Nice try at whataboutism.
I do believe you missed the point completely.
And no, it isn't whataboutism.

Would you have border controls between England and Scotland? (yes, some would, but that's another story unrelated to Coronavirus and more to do with the Emperor Hadrian)

There can be as many differences between England and Scotland, as there are between France and Belgium.
Sometimes more.
At least in the majority of Europe, the paper money you use is freely accepted across borders (the € Euro)
But try spending a Scottish £20 note any further south than Berwick-on-Tweed, and you will get funny stares from the locals, and a polite refusal.

The much vaunted UK National Health Service (NHS) exists both north and south of this border, but the delivery of services varies wildly between the two different countries. Much like say, Spain and Portugal.
Or Texas and Louisiana.

So, who is for closing down the borders between US states? Or at the very least, isolate Alaska and Hawaii, because that is the question you are asking.


Does the EU share a standard health protocols among all EU nations?

Does the rich northern European nations have better and more advanced health infrastructures?

You are mostly placing arguments in favor of open borders on the subject of monetary policy and their same shared currency, doesnt work great when in the past you had terrorist crossing borders freely among weaker security states (see Belgium) and immigrants crossing freely in search of the northern EU nations that have better economic prospects.

I know this is a globalist experiment, but clearly these crisis expose that they will be very hard to maintain.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
theaviator380
Posts: 681
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:44 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:07 pm

kalvado wrote:
cjg225 wrote:
Not sure what this Italian quarantine is really doing, ultimately.

Internally, I guess some of our facilities in Europe are going to reject people coming on site who have been to the Italian quarantine zone recently.

Our providers are telling us that there's no real restriction on cargo flowing into and out of the quarantine zone, though. Something about the quarantine zone being an "orange" zone now instead of a "red" zone.

Goal is not to lock out infection, that option is already gone. This is about gaining some time for more orderly response.


Does anyone have any insight on what failed in Italy?

How on the earth officials in Italy let it go out of hand ?? Situation escalated so quickly and I think strict action should have came in lot earlier. Also other EU countries were slow to react it seems.

Failure to contain in Italy has caused major issues, up until only China, Japan and Korea had it but because of Italy, number of countries are now paying the penalty !
 
Varsity1
Posts: 2183
Joined: Mon May 02, 2016 4:55 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:15 pm

kalvado wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Germany. Official numbers from today, published by the RKI (Robert Koch Institut). Today: 09:am Please note, there can be a discrepancy by few hours and some of the states. These are the official numbers, which have been announced by the states on the regular way.
1112 confirmed Coronavirus cases in Germany,
0 live threatening
0 death.

One German (60 years old) died yesterday in Hurghada, Egypt.
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Fallzahlen.html

Global numbers as *.pdf, Today, 9:00 am 110.000 cases.
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Fallzahlen-international.pdf?__blob=publicationFile:

Global numbers: You can also check the WHO site, but regular the RKI numbers are more up to date.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

0 deaths is pretty strange. Either Germany has way better diagnostics than anyone else, a milder strain of virus, or manipulate statistics. Hope for 2, suspect 3.



I suspect it has to do with Germany's extremely strict privacy laws regarding healthcare.

Testing everyone is good. It provides awareness that we otherwise wouldn't have.
"PPRuNe will no longer allow discussions regarding Etihad Airlines, its employees, executives, agents, or other representatives. Such threads will be deleted." - ME3 thug airlines suing anyone who brings negative information public..
 
kalvado
Posts: 2666
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:27 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
SheikhDjibouti wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Are open borders within Europe sustainable?

Very funny, is each state a different country? last time I checked they weren't. Nice try at whataboutism.
I do believe you missed the point completely.
And no, it isn't whataboutism.

Would you have border controls between England and Scotland? (yes, some would, but that's another story unrelated to Coronavirus and more to do with the Emperor Hadrian)

There can be as many differences between England and Scotland, as there are between France and Belgium.
Sometimes more.
At least in the majority of Europe, the paper money you use is freely accepted across borders (the € Euro)
But try spending a Scottish £20 note any further south than Berwick-on-Tweed, and you will get funny stares from the locals, and a polite refusal.

The much vaunted UK National Health Service (NHS) exists both north and south of this border, but the delivery of services varies wildly between the two different countries. Much like say, Spain and Portugal.
Or Texas and Louisiana.

So, who is for closing down the borders between US states? Or at the very least, isolate Alaska and Hawaii, because that is the question you are asking.


Does the EU share a standard health protocols among all EU nations?

Does the rich northern European nations have better and more advanced health infrastructures?

You are mostly placing arguments in favor of open borders on the subject of monetary policy and their same shared currency, doesnt work great when in the past you had terrorist crossing borders freely among weaker security states (see Belgium) and immigrants crossing freely in search of the northern EU nations that have better economic prospects.

I know this is a globalist experiment, but clearly these crisis expose that they will be very hard to maintain.

If you ask me, root cause is first world snobbish altitude. Instead of preparations, people were staring at reality show and criticizing China, assuming this may happen only with those (derogatory words) not with them, and China is doing all wrong. Look a few pages back in this thread for some samples.
 
T4thH
Posts: 915
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:58 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Germany. Official numbers from today, published by the RKI (Robert Koch Institut). Today: 09:am Please note, there can be a discrepancy by few hours and some of the states. These are the official numbers, which have been announced by the states on the regular way.
1112 confirmed Coronavirus cases in Germany,
0 live threatening
0 death.

One German (60 years old) died yesterday in Hurghada, Egypt.
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Fallzahlen.html

Global numbers as *.pdf, Today, 9:00 am 110.000 cases.
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Fallzahlen-international.pdf?__blob=publicationFile:

Global numbers: You can also check the WHO site, but regular the RKI numbers are more up to date.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

0 deaths is pretty strange. Either Germany has way better diagnostics than anyone else, a milder strain of virus, or manipulate statistics. Hope for 2, suspect 3.



I suspect it has to do with Germany's extremely strict privacy laws regarding healthcare.

Testing everyone is good. It provides awareness that we otherwise wouldn't have.


There are now the first two confirmed death cases in Germany., one in "Heinsberg" and one in "Essen" (most likely the University hospital in Essen). Both are in state Nordrhein Westphalia.

Essen: a 89 years old woman. The Coronavirus was identified by her last week Tuesday.
Heinsberg: news conference in 1.5 h.
Last edited by T4thH on Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2327
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:01 pm

I wonder what will happen to Australia when they inevitably move into their winter season. I assume that Coronavirus cases will spike. Will the world then seal off Australia, just like in the past when it was a British Penal Colony?
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:50 pm

kalvado wrote:
0 deaths is pretty strange. Either Germany has way better diagnostics than anyone else, a milder strain of virus, or manipulate statistics. Hope for 2, suspect 3.


Still 0 deaths in Sweden too from about 250 known cases. Also a couple of days ago it was said that the patient in the first confirmed case in Sweden was symptom free.
Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
 
art
Posts: 3320
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:22 pm

Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
Still 0 deaths in Sweden too from about 250 known cases. Also a couple of days ago it was said that the patient in the first confirmed case in Sweden was symptom free.


0 out of 250 fatalities would sound very good to me if they had contracted COVID-19 three weeks ago. How long ago were these people infected?
 
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readytotaxi
Posts: 7269
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:43 pm

Breaking now. The death toll from the coronavirus outbreak in Italy has increased from 366 to 463, in 24hrs Reuters news agency reports.
you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
Growing older, but not up.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1179
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:49 pm

I wonder what is going in in China.
They are showcasing empty field hospitals, but in the meanwhile hotels full of quarantined people collapse hundreds of miles from the epicenter.
Perhaps the infected were redistributed into hotels?
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
Posts: 2028
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2012 5:39 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:50 pm

art wrote:
Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
Still 0 deaths in Sweden too from about 250 known cases. Also a couple of days ago it was said that the patient in the first confirmed case in Sweden was symptom free.


0 out of 250 fatalities would sound very good to me if they had contracted COVID-19 three weeks ago. How long ago were these people infected?


The first case of Covid 19 was confirmed on 31 January which is a woman who had been to Wuhan. Currently it has increased to about 250 known cases.
Obviously don't know how long each one has been infected.
Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:51 pm

theaviator380 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
cjg225 wrote:
Not sure what this Italian quarantine is really doing, ultimately.

Internally, I guess some of our facilities in Europe are going to reject people coming on site who have been to the Italian quarantine zone recently.

Our providers are telling us that there's no real restriction on cargo flowing into and out of the quarantine zone, though. Something about the quarantine zone being an "orange" zone now instead of a "red" zone.

Goal is not to lock out infection, that option is already gone. This is about gaining some time for more orderly response.


Does anyone have any insight on what failed in Italy?

How on the earth officials in Italy let it go out of hand ?? Situation escalated so quickly and I think strict action should have came in lot earlier. Also other EU countries were slow to react it seems.

Failure to contain in Italy has caused major issues, up until only China, Japan and Korea had it but because of Italy, number of countries are now paying the penalty !

Italy took the same path so many countries, including the USA, have done: ignore the problem. South Korea only had the Coronavirus in hand after starting extensive testing and quarantine.

We in the West have forgotten how difficult quarantine is Wuhan is in day 46 of quarantine. Anywhere that allows the problem to grow undetected will be in a similar situation.

I still find fault with China's numbers, but their methods worked. Are we ready? We haven't even tested enough to understand if we have a problem. I hope we don't find out by a flood of people into the hospitals.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
asdf
Posts: 692
Joined: Tue Mar 18, 2014 12:03 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:15 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Are we ready? We haven't even tested enough to understand if we have a problem. I hope we don't find out by a flood of people into the hospitals.


since the intellectual revolution, the survival instincts of homo sapies have gradually decreased

Instead of the natural selection that has been working for decades and has been very well described by darwin, step by step ideological and capitalist-based value skeletons have emerged, which in themselves are certainly very noble, human and business-friendly

but they only work because there has never been any real existential crises threatening the species

I very much hope that in the medium term the Covid-19 stuff will also turn out to be a bush fire and that in two years no one will crow after it

if not ... well, good luck for us all ... especially the western states are badly positioned for a case like this
 
bennett123
Posts: 9480
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:26 pm

Personally, I have little confidence in the Chinese approach.

Putting Wuhan into quarantine only after the Lunar New Year when millions had dispersed was crazy. The Italian quarantine seems to have worked little better.

Just read this on the BBC;

'Live Reporting
By Alexandra Fouché, Ritu Prasad, Joshua Nevett and Patrick Jackson
Posted at 18:11
18:11
London firm seeks green light for vaccine research
Philippa Roxby
Health reporter, BBC News
A company in east London is looking for 24 volunteers to be injected with a strain of the new coronavirus in a bid to find a vaccine against the virus.
It is reported they will be offered up to £3,500 to be infected and then quarantined for two weeks.
But the UK regulator – the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency – still has to agree to the company’s plans before the research can take place.
Research into at least eight vaccines is ongoing in the UK, and scientists in many other parts of the world are also working hard on developing a jab.
It’s unlikely any vaccine will be ready before the end of the year.
Trials to test any potential vaccines must be tested on humans before they can be manufactured and given to the wider public.
Want to know more about efforts to develop a vaccine? Read our coverage'.

If people sign up for this, then they must be crazy.
 
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2557
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:37 pm

"This is the most frightening disease I've encountered in my career. That includes Ebola, that includes MERS, that includes SARS. And it's frightening because of its combination of infectiousness and a lethality that is many fold higher than flu."

Dr. Richard Hatchett (He's studied viruses for 25 years).

https://youtu.be/dcJDpV-igjs

It's Chanel 4 and Cathy Newman. But she's learned from the "so what' you're saying is" disaster. She's not interrupting, and the doctor has a lot of wisdom. Take 20 minutes out of your day to listen to what he's saying.
 
NIKV69
Posts: 13372
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:27 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:14 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
"This is the most frightening disease I've encountered in my career. That includes Ebola, that includes MERS, that includes SARS. And it's frightening because of its combination of infectiousness and a lethality that is many fold higher than flu."

Dr. Richard Hatchett (He's studied viruses for 25 years).

https://youtu.be/dcJDpV-igjs

It's Chanel 4 and Cathy Newman. But she's learned from the "so what' you're saying is" disaster. She's not interrupting, and the doctor has a lot of wisdom. Take 20 minutes out of your day to listen to what he's saying.


No thanks, just turn on Brooke Baldwin on CNN you would think this is the Spanish Flu. That is enough for me.
I am the Googlizer!!!
 
art
Posts: 3320
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:24 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
"This is the most frightening disease I've encountered in my career. That includes Ebola, that includes MERS, that includes SARS. And it's frightening because of its combination of infectiousness and a lethality that is many fold higher than flu."

Dr. Richard Hatchett (He's studied viruses for 25 years).

https://youtu.be/dcJDpV-igjs

It's Chanel 4 and Cathy Newman. But she's learned from the "so what' you're saying is" disaster. She's not interrupting, and the doctor has a lot of wisdom. Take 20 minutes out of your day to listen to what he's saying.


Knowledgeable, thoughtful, measured speaker who oozes credibility. I am thankful to have been alerted to this interview.

Should be compulsory viewing for all who listen to what we term social media. It would help disabuse those who source what they believe to be information from the social media, many of whom see this virus as no more dangerous than seasonal flu and perceive it as being nothing much to worry about.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2327
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:32 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
"This is the most frightening disease I've encountered in my career. That includes Ebola, that includes MERS, that includes SARS. And it's frightening because of its combination of infectiousness and a lethality that is many fold higher than flu."

Dr. Richard Hatchett (He's studied viruses for 25 years).

https://youtu.be/dcJDpV-igjs

It's Chanel 4 and Cathy Newman. But she's learned from the "so what' you're saying is" disaster. She's not interrupting, and the doctor has a lot of wisdom. Take 20 minutes out of your day to listen to what he's saying.


Made some good points, but some impractical.
The major problem with Humanity as I see it is that people want 100% certainty, which unscrupulous politicians and so-called experts will promise you to gain your favor or trust.
Sorry to burst you bubble, but 100% certainty doesn't exist. You can minimize risk, but you cannot eliminate it. And sometimes, the "cure" is worse than the "disease".
 
mxp
Posts: 485
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 8:50 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:53 pm

Hi Folk
our PM is just announcing that all Italy is from now Red Zone.
Lets see how things Will going. I work in Milan Subway but they annunce trasport Will work ad normal
Alberto
 
bennett123
Posts: 9480
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:00 pm

Sobering stuff.
 
art
Posts: 3320
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:08 pm

mxp wrote:
Hi Folk
our PM is just announcing that all Italy is from now Red Zone.
Lets see how things Will going. I work in Milan Subway but they annunce trasport Will work ad normal
Alberto


I just heard that the entire country will be restricted to movement (a) to go to work (b) emergencies. It will be interesting to see what happens. I am sure that many governments will be closely following what happens in Italy - the progress of the epidemic, public observance of the rules and the performance of the economy.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:22 pm

It is difficult to trust China's numbers and even if they gained control methods China uses cannot be replicated. Just like their economic model.

One would assume infections would plateau before going down. This is like instantly no more infections.

There were thousands in the critical state probably on a ventilator before information lockdown. Just following the fatality by age group stats, there should be a lot more deaths.
All posts are just opinions.
 
bennett123
Posts: 9480
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:46 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51810673

https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/italy

FCO still playing catch up.

If they are advising against 'All but essential Travel' to certain areas, then when Italy extends their restrictions nationwide, then surely the FCO should follow suit.

It would be nice to think that the FCO does not get ALL of it's intelligence from watching the morning news!!.
 
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casinterest
Posts: 11035
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:48 pm

Israel has implemented a 14 day quarantine for all who enter israel.
https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Isr ... -41-620347

“This decision will be in effect for two weeks,” he continued. “At the same time, we will make decisions to safeguard the Israeli economy.”
Specifically, the isolation requirement applies to both Israelis and foreign travelers alike. No non-citizens will be able to enter Israel without proving they have a place to stay out their quarantine.
Tourists who are already in Israel will be given a few days to organize their flights back home.
The Health Ministry is asking that these tourists follow five guidelines: 1) Call Magen David Adom if they experience any symptoms; 2) pay careful attention to their personal hygiene; 3) stay away from public gatherings; 4) understand that they cannot leave and then return to the country and; 5) report on their whereabouts while in Israel.


Decisive decision from Israel. I wonder if other world leaders will take the cue?
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
bennett123
Posts: 9480
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:55 pm

Donald J. Trump
7 hrs ·
So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!

Source Facebook page for Donald J Trump

dtw2hyd

Perhaps this is part of the problem for the USA.

The line from the top is that this is no big deal.
 
SWALUV
Posts: 192
Joined: Fri Apr 13, 2012 7:43 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:36 pm

Does anyone really think this virus can still be contained? It's been showing people to people transmission while asymptomatic during a two week period.. Testing is so limited, that the number of actual cases of people infected with the virus has to be much higher, if not double what is being reported in some countries. At what point do we realize that containment is no longer an option?
 
User avatar
gatibosgru
Posts: 1762
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:48 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:47 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
"This is the most frightening disease I've encountered in my career. That includes Ebola, that includes MERS, that includes SARS. And it's frightening because of its combination of infectiousness and a lethality that is many fold higher than flu."

Dr. Richard Hatchett (He's studied viruses for 25 years).

https://youtu.be/dcJDpV-igjs

It's Chanel 4 and Cathy Newman. But she's learned from the "so what' you're saying is" disaster. She's not interrupting, and the doctor has a lot of wisdom. Take 20 minutes out of your day to listen to what he's saying.


Thanks for sharing
@DadCelo
 
art
Posts: 3320
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:49 pm

This is shaping up to be the worst thing since Spanish flu 1918-1920. Or even worse. Spanish flu was estimated to have infected 500 million of an estimated world population of 1.5 billion with estimated fatalities of 50 million.

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resour ... -h1n1.html

The world population has grown fivefold since then to about 7.5 billion.

UK scientists advise the government to prepare for 60%-80% of the population to become infected.

Based on that assumption, worldwide that would translate to 4.5 billion to 6.0 billion COVID-19 cases.

With estimated 1%-2% mortality from COVID-19 we are looking at a possible 45 million to 120 million fatalities worldwide.

That is daunting.
Last edited by art on Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2557
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:53 pm

art wrote:
Knowledgeable, thoughtful, measured speaker who oozes credibility. I am thankful to have been alerted to this interview.

Should be compulsory viewing for all who listen to what we term social media. It would help disabuse those who source what they believe to be information from the social media, many of whom see this virus as no more dangerous than seasonal flu and perceive it as being nothing much to worry about.


I agree. It should be viewed by everyone.

mxp wrote:
Hi Folk
our PM is just announcing that all Italy is from now Red Zone.
Lets see how things Will going. I work in Milan Subway but they annunce trasport Will work ad normal
Alberto


That's sobering. Stay safe.

dtw2hyd wrote:
It is difficult to trust China's numbers and even if they gained control methods China uses cannot be replicated. Just like their economic model.

One would assume infections would plateau before going down. This is like instantly no more infections.

There were thousands in the critical state probably on a ventilator before information lockdown. Just following the fatality by age group stats, there should be a lot more deaths.


I agree. The China numbers were going up and up, the linear curve was going exponential... and then nothing.. just a trickle. Not believable at all. If China really managed to put a lid on it, they would announce it to the world and scientists from all over the globe would study their actions. This has not happened. WHO can't be trusted either. They're in China's pocket.

bennett123 wrote:
Donald J. Trump
7 hrs ·
So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!

Source Facebook page for Donald J Trump

dtw2hyd

Perhaps this is part of the problem for the USA.

The line from the top is that this is no big deal.


He's not doing anyone any favors by downplaying it. However, Trump is more worried about the markets collapsing, which is definately a legitimate worry. If we go into a recession the effects for everyone could be much worse than this virus.

SWALUV wrote:
Does anyone really think this virus can still be contained? It's been showing people to people transmission while asymptomatic during a two week period.. Testing is so limited, that the number of actual cases of people infected with the virus has to be much higher, if not double what is being reported in some countries. At what point do we realize that containment is no longer an option?


What we can do is to slow it. We can't stop it completely, but we can contain it the best we can. That buys us more time to build the response we need, like vaccines, hospital beds and so on. In Norway the government experts are saying we'll be like Italy, if not worse, it's just a matter of time.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2327
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:31 pm

art wrote:
mxp wrote:
Hi Folk
our PM is just announcing that all Italy is from now Red Zone.
Lets see how things Will going. I work in Milan Subway but they annunce trasport Will work ad normal
Alberto


I just heard that the entire country will be restricted to movement (a) to go to work (b) emergencies. It will be interesting to see what happens. I am sure that many governments will be closely following what happens in Italy - the progress of the epidemic, public observance of the rules and the performance of the economy.


How is this supposed to work? Everyone stay home and starve to death instead of getting a viral infection?
And no, your food supply only will last a couple weeks. Then what. Go to the empty supermarkets to scrape breadcrumbs from floor? (food production and delivery has been locked up too, remember).
Are armed street gangs going to invade your home, put a gun against your head and demand you hand over your soup cans otherwise they put in bullet in your head? Is that how it is gonna work?

MAD MAX scenario??
 
Derico
Posts: 4400
Joined: Mon Dec 20, 1999 9:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:18 am

To those who say the Chinese are lying through their teeth about the infection rate. Maybe they are, but only up to a point. Or maybe, new cases are not being confirmed as before because people are just staying put.
What I can tell you is I know and talk hundreds of people in China, Korea, India. I am in Taiwan myself currently so I can see what is happening in person. There is no obvious sign of a massive infectious contagion in Taiwan. I've talked to dozens of Chinese and none have have fallen sick in three weeks now, of any virus. Neither have their family members. I can't be told by a.netters that it's all the world's most sophisticated ruse. The drop in infections is real and sharp, but the undetected cases could conceivably also be up. Of course all at a massive and unsustainable cost to daily life routine.

It's also obvious that the virus degrades rapidly in hot and humid weather. Much too few cases in very vulnerable countries like Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia, etc... Which don't have the most robust system. Also very few cases in Australia, Taiwan, and Africa, all who have big flows of people from and to China. So I am hopeful that when it gets hot and humid in North America and most of Europe, there will be a sharper drop which will provide time.
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2327
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:22 am

Derico wrote:
It's also obvious that the virus degrades rapidly in hot and humid weather. Much too few cases in very vulnerable countries like Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia, etc... Which don't have the most robust system. Also very few cases in Australia, Taiwan, and Africa, all who have big flows of people from and to China. So I am hopeful that when it gets hot and humid in North America and most of Europe, there will be a sharper drop which will provide time.


A human body is "hot and humid": 37 centigrade, 90% water. The virus does very well in there.
The fact that there are very few REPORTED cases in the countries you mention does not mean there aren't any.
 
Derico
Posts: 4400
Joined: Mon Dec 20, 1999 9:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:36 am

Hmmm. You can't really compare inert surfaces of objects to the biological body which a virus seeks. Totally different. It is like me telling you that you will do just fine on the surface of Mars on a summer day because the sun energy is sufficient, and it's 70 degrees with a gentle breeze (all true).

The point I was making is not if there is 1 case or zero cases in hotter areas. The point was to suggest the transmission rate is far slower and lower, which is significant.
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2327
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:42 am

Derico wrote:
Hmmm. You can't really compare inert surfaces of objects to the biological body which a virus seeks. Totally different. It is like me telling you that you will do just fine on the surface of Mars on a summer day because the sun energy is sufficient, and it's 70 degrees with a gentle breeze (all true).

The point I was making is not if there is 1 case or zero cases in hotter areas. The point was to suggest the transmission rate is far slower and lower, which is significant.


Unless the transmission rate is not slower, but the immune system is more effective in warmer climates? Or perhaps the Coronavirus has a mitochondrial component that allows it to specifically attack Caucasians and Chinese?
 
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DIRECTFLT
Posts: 2244
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:00 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:03 am

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/news/P ... 92020.aspx

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/Diseas ... rings.aspx

County of Santa Clara Issues Order to Cancel Mass Gatherings Due to Increasing Rates of COVID-19

This includes the arena where sports are played.
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
dampfnudel
Posts: 584
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:42 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:31 am

Looks like there’s a good chance next month’s Coachella will be postponed until October.

https://www.billboard.com/articles/busi ... ls-october
A313 332 343 B703 712 722 732 73G 738 739 741 742 744 752 762 76E 764 772 AT5 CR9 D10 DHH DHT F27 GRM L10 M83 TU5
 
bennett123
Posts: 9480
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:10 am

Dieuwer

Firstly, the quarantine period is 14 days.

Secondly, most people have some food in the house and room to store a bit extra.

Your suggestion of starvation and Mad Max is somewhat OTT.
 
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readytotaxi
Posts: 7269
Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2006 2:09 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:01 am

Malta has barred all flights into out of Italy and ferry service to Sicily will now only carry cargo.
you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
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