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bennett123
Posts: 9732
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:04 am

Yes.

That was on the BBC as well.
 
uta999
Posts: 917
Joined: Mon Jun 14, 2010 11:10 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:59 am

This doctor explains what its really like in an Italian hospital. They have to decide who will live, who will die. There are just too many people to help them all. Like a war field hospital.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... r-11954229
Your computer just got better
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8345
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:24 am

Derico wrote:
To those who say the Chinese are lying through their teeth about the infection rate. Maybe they are, but only up to a point. Or maybe, new cases are not being confirmed as before because people are just staying put.
What I can tell you is I know and talk hundreds of people in China, Korea, India. I am in Taiwan myself currently so I can see what is happening in person. There is no obvious sign of a massive infectious contagion in Taiwan. I've talked to dozens of Chinese and none have have fallen sick in three weeks now, of any virus. Neither have their family members. I can't be told by a.netters that it's all the world's most sophisticated ruse. The drop in infections is real and sharp, but the undetected cases could conceivably also be up. Of course all at a massive and unsustainable cost to daily life routine.

It's also obvious that the virus degrades rapidly in hot and humid weather. Much too few cases in very vulnerable countries like Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia, etc... Which don't have the most robust system. Also very few cases in Australia, Taiwan, and Africa, all who have big flows of people from and to China. So I am hopeful that when it gets hot and humid in North America and most of Europe, there will be a sharper drop which will provide time.


All that proves is The Great Firewall of China is working above and beyond expectations. Nothing else.
All posts are just opinions.
 
art
Posts: 3439
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:53 am

uta999 wrote:
This doctor explains what its really like in an Italian hospital. They have to decide who will live, who will die. There are just too many people to help them all. Like a war field hospital.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... r-11954229


I think this will be a reality almost everywhere.

There are about 125,000 hospital beds in the UK public health sector. Normally >90% are in use. The UK government is advised that >30 million cases of COVID-19 can be anticipated in the UK. Several million people may be infected at the same time. Should that situation arise it is clear that demand for care for critically ill COVID-19 sufferers will far outstrip supply. Therefore most critically ill patients will not receive appropriate treatment.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 418
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:09 am

uta999 wrote:
This doctor explains what its really like in an Italian hospital. They have to decide who will live, who will die. There are just too many people to help them all. Like a war field hospital.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... r-11954229


It’s frightening to me to continue to listen to people in the US and UK downplay the impact this can (and WILL) have once it’s endemic here. So few are prepared for what is coming. Italy is not some authoritarian regime in China or Iran - it’s probably unfortunately representative of the future we’re in for in just several weeks’ time.

But don’t worry - it’s just the flu...
 
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Aesma
Posts: 13137
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:34 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
It is difficult to trust China's numbers and even if they gained control methods China uses cannot be replicated. Just like their economic model.

One would assume infections would plateau before going down. This is like instantly no more infections.

There were thousands in the critical state probably on a ventilator before information lockdown. Just following the fatality by age group stats, there should be a lot more deaths.


China has for sure done some major triaging that we're not aware of. Like "sick, over 70 ? quarantined home, left to die". Which is reasonable anyway if you have no way to treat them on top of treating younger people with a fighting chance.

Patient 0 (might be patient 1 as I don't think they found patient 0) in Italy has now recovered. A 38yo man, he has spent 3 weeks in the ICU !

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... k-69498352
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
Posts: 13137
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:39 am

bennett123 wrote:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51810673

https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/italy

FCO still playing catch up.

If they are advising against 'All but essential Travel' to certain areas, then when Italy extends their restrictions nationwide, then surely the FCO should follow suit.

It would be nice to think that the FCO does not get ALL of it's intelligence from watching the morning news!!.


Well to show British people that Brexit is Brexit the UK PM is not sending his health minister to European meetings about the pandemic, so there is that.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15203
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:00 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
uta999 wrote:
This doctor explains what its really like in an Italian hospital. They have to decide who will live, who will die. There are just too many people to help them all. Like a war field hospital.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... r-11954229


It’s frightening to me to continue to listen to people in the US and UK downplay the impact this can (and WILL) have once it’s endemic here. So few are prepared for what is coming. Italy is not some authoritarian regime in China or Iran - it’s probably unfortunately representative of the future we’re in for in just several weeks’ time.

But don’t worry - it’s just the flu...


Now we are facing a very difficult reality of governmental leaders and individuals world wide - take drastic but necessary actions this week to reduce the infection rates to levels that can be dealt with by our health care systems and to limit the number of deaths but limit the massive economic affects. Indeed, this is a war that must be won but will lead to severe changes to our lives after the next 3 or so months before the threat will pass to minor status.

I do hope when this winds down and after the fact assessments are done, that we are better for it. Perhaps our politicians will realize we need to end our polarization, must show competency, can and must deal with the fallout, that in the USA we must have robust public health structures, that all can access affordable health care, and maybe some of our materialism will taper down.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:19 pm

NBC: "We analyzed 150 cases and found..."

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... s_20200310
 
uta999
Posts: 917
Joined: Mon Jun 14, 2010 11:10 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:02 pm

Do we know why northern Italy was affected so badly by this virus quite early on? Yet the UK, with all the flights from China & Korea seems a long way behind the curve. It doesn't make sense, unless the UK just aren't testing for it.
Your computer just got better
 
art
Posts: 3439
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:19 pm

There is inconsistency in the UK position. The government is advised that it should expect more than half the population to become infected but I have just heard on the news that UK infections are expected to peak within 3 weeks.

??
 
slider
Posts: 7603
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 11:42 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:29 pm

I hope the global community holds China accountable for this. Biological warfare, in essence, with unleashing the manmade Wuhan Virus.

Once we get past the irrational panic and disorder, the ChiComs need a reckoning.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:45 pm

slider wrote:
I hope the global community holds China accountable for this. Biological warfare, in essence, with unleashing the manmade Wuhan Virus.

Once we get past the irrational panic and disorder, the ChiComs need a reckoning.


Well actually, China is now say that the virus did not "necessarily" originate in China.

China’s foreign ministry objected on Monday to the term “Wuhan coronavirus.”
The ministry has claimed that even though the epidemic was first reported in China, it didn’t necessarily originate there.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/china-o ... ompeo.html

So let the PC police and the trolls begin to say the same that this did not originate there.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1288
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:13 pm

Aesma wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
It is difficult to trust China's numbers and even if they gained control methods China uses cannot be replicated. Just like their economic model.

One would assume infections would plateau before going down. This is like instantly no more infections.

There were thousands in the critical state probably on a ventilator before information lockdown. Just following the fatality by age group stats, there should be a lot more deaths.


China has for sure done some major triaging that we're not aware of. Like "sick, over 70 ? quarantined home, left to die". Which is reasonable anyway if you have no way to treat them on top of treating younger people with a fighting chance.

Patient 0 (might be patient 1 as I don't think they found patient 0) in Italy has now recovered. A 38yo man, he has spent 3 weeks in the ICU !

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... k-69498352


To be precise Italy's patient 1, the 38 year old Unilever manager, has not recovered yet, he is out of ICU after weeks in there, and finally breathing on his own.
His wife is now suffering a lung infection and is hospitalised.

http://www.abruzzoweb.it/contenuti/coro ... /721592-4/

But hey, don't worry people, this is just like the flu. :highfive:

The interview with the British virologist posted above is very interesting, it confirms a lot of the things that a majority has been saying here for weeks.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 557
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:26 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
It is difficult to trust China's numbers and even if they gained control methods China uses cannot be replicated. Just like their economic model.

One would assume infections would plateau before going down. This is like instantly no more infections.

There were thousands in the critical state probably on a ventilator before information lockdown. Just following the fatality by age group stats, there should be a lot more deaths.


China has for sure done some major triaging that we're not aware of. Like "sick, over 70 ? quarantined home, left to die". Which is reasonable anyway if you have no way to treat them on top of treating younger people with a fighting chance.

Patient 0 (might be patient 1 as I don't think they found patient 0) in Italy has now recovered. A 38yo man, he has spent 3 weeks in the ICU !

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... k-69498352


To be precise Italy's patient 1, the 38 year old Unilever manager, has not recovered yet, he is out of ICU after weeks in there, and finally breathing on his own.
His wife is now suffering a lung infection and is hospitalised.

http://www.abruzzoweb.it/contenuti/coro ... /721592-4/

But hey, don't worry people, this is just like the flu. :highfive:

The interview with the British virologist posted above is very interesting, it confirms a lot of the things that a majority has been saying here for weeks.


Scary scenario noted. We'll see. Right now, the conventional flu is causing a lot more funerals than novel coronavirus. I don't know how to weigh it fairly except to say that so far, conventional flu causes more funerals in every region studied thus far, including Wuhan, including Milan AFAIK. Yes, this new virus is quite scary. We will see what transpires.
 
FatCat
Posts: 1038
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:02 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:36 pm

So since this morning we are all in the "red zone".
Since yesterday's IT PM announcment flock of people rushed to 24/7 supermarkets to buy first-need items - groceries, toilet paper, etc. - even supermarkets will not be affected by the curfew (only on Sat and Sun, they will be closed).
We all need a special permit to travel between municipalities. I have been controlled this morning, hadn't, because my printer at home decided to finish it's toner cartridge yesterday evening, risked a fine, shown the paybill where's written the Company's address, being freed.
The shopping mall that's 200 meters from my office looks like one of Dan Bell's "Dead Mall Series" (check it on YT), pretty scary.
You can see about 10% of the usual traffic on the streets.
Bars and restaurants have to close to the public at 18:00, many small businesses do not open at all.
Prison riots happened, 8 people have died. Some are continuing up to today. 20 inmates have fled from one prison.
No international flight is landing in Italy. MXP is half shut. FR stopped all flights from and to Italy as of midnight yesterday.
Gendarmerie and Customs are blocking every italian trying to enter Austria via Brennerpass and Tarvisio; Austrians can return home, but have to do 14 days quarantine.
A lady has been robbed, robber took her hand sanitizer, left phone, keys and money in the purse.
It's not a pleasant situation.
Aeroplane flies high
Turns left, looks right
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1288
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:44 pm

FatCat wrote:
So since this morning we are all in the "red zone".
Since yesterday's IT PM announcment flock of people rushed to 24/7 supermarkets to buy first-need items - groceries, toilet paper, etc. - even supermarkets will not be affected by the curfew (only on Sat and Sun, they will be closed).
We all need a special permit to travel between municipalities. I have been controlled this morning, hadn't, because my printer at home decided to finish it's toner cartridge yesterday evening, risked a fine, shown the paybill where's written the Company's address, being freed.
The shopping mall that's 200 meters from my office looks like one of Dan Bell's "Dead Mall Series" (check it on YT), pretty scary.
You can see about 10% of the usual traffic on the streets.
Bars and restaurants have to close to the public at 18:00, many small businesses do not open at all.
Prison riots happened, 8 people have died. Some are continuing up to today. 20 inmates have fled from one prison.
No international flight is landing in Italy. MXP is half shut. FR stopped all flights from and to Italy as of midnight yesterday.
Gendarmerie and Customs are blocking every italian trying to enter Austria via Brennerpass and Tarvisio; Austrians can return home, but have to do 14 days quarantine.
A lady has been robbed, robber took her hand sanitizer, left phone, keys and money in the purse.
It's not a pleasant situation.


Wish you strength and good luck, in a few weeks, perhaps even in a matter of days if we look at the situation in Spain, France and Germany, this situation will expand to the rest of Europe.
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
FatCat
Posts: 1038
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:02 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:48 pm

thanks mate.
hope this thing will not spread.
here, health is assured to anyone, regardless to income and insurance... you know, not everywhere is so, and this outbreak will hit hard the poor and who cannot afford a decent health coverage.
I was looking at FR24 right now, but I see FR's flights and other Companies also, (LCCs and not) departing from Italy, so what do the newspapers write? Fake news?
Aeroplane flies high
Turns left, looks right
 
kalvado
Posts: 2830
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:58 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
slider wrote:
I hope the global community holds China accountable for this. Biological warfare, in essence, with unleashing the manmade Wuhan Virus.

Once we get past the irrational panic and disorder, the ChiComs need a reckoning.


Well actually, China is now say that the virus did not "necessarily" originate in China.

China’s foreign ministry objected on Monday to the term “Wuhan coronavirus.”
The ministry has claimed that even though the epidemic was first reported in China, it didn’t necessarily originate there.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/china-o ... ompeo.html

So let the PC police and the trolls begin to say the same that this did not originate there.

Well, it is assumed most strains of flu come from China. However, latest theory on spanish flu suggest that it originated on a farm in Kansas, traveled to France with US troops, and did spread from there, including back to US.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2830
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:00 pm

FatCat wrote:
thanks mate.
hope this thing will not spread.
here, health is assured to anyone, regardless to income and insurance... you know, not everywhere is so, and this outbreak will hit hard the poor and who cannot afford a decent health coverage.
I was looking at FR24 right now, but I see FR's flights and other Companies also, (LCCs and not) departing from Italy, so what do the newspapers write? Fake news?

I would look for flights TO Italy. Apparently, no company wants their planes and crews to be stranded in a foreign country.
 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2567
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:13 pm

uta999 wrote:
This doctor explains what its really like in an Italian hospital. They have to decide who will live, who will die. There are just too many people to help them all. Like a war field hospital.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... r-11954229


That's a somber read. This situation awaits all of us in Europe.

FatCat wrote:
So since this morning we are all in the "red zone".
Since yesterday's IT PM announcment flock of people rushed to 24/7 supermarkets to buy first-need items - groceries, toilet paper, etc. - even supermarkets will not be affected by the curfew (only on Sat and Sun, they will be closed).
We all need a special permit to travel between municipalities. I have been controlled this morning, hadn't, because my printer at home decided to finish it's toner cartridge yesterday evening, risked a fine, shown the paybill where's written the Company's address, being freed.
The shopping mall that's 200 meters from my office looks like one of Dan Bell's "Dead Mall Series" (check it on YT), pretty scary.
You can see about 10% of the usual traffic on the streets.
Bars and restaurants have to close to the public at 18:00, many small businesses do not open at all.
Prison riots happened, 8 people have died. Some are continuing up to today. 20 inmates have fled from one prison.
No international flight is landing in Italy. MXP is half shut. FR stopped all flights from and to Italy as of midnight yesterday.
Gendarmerie and Customs are blocking every italian trying to enter Austria via Brennerpass and Tarvisio; Austrians can return home, but have to do 14 days quarantine.
A lady has been robbed, robber took her hand sanitizer, left phone, keys and money in the purse.
It's not a pleasant situation.


Thank you for some insight into the situation. Stay safe.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:14 pm

FatCat wrote:
So since this morning we are all in the "red zone".
Since yesterday's IT PM announcment flock of people rushed to 24/7 supermarkets to buy first-need items - groceries, toilet paper, etc. - even supermarkets will not be affected by the curfew (only on Sat and Sun, they will be closed).
We all need a special permit to travel between municipalities. I have been controlled this morning, hadn't, because my printer at home decided to finish it's toner cartridge yesterday evening, risked a fine, shown the paybill where's written the Company's address, being freed.
The shopping mall that's 200 meters from my office looks like one of Dan Bell's "Dead Mall Series" (check it on YT), pretty scary.
You can see about 10% of the usual traffic on the streets.
Bars and restaurants have to close to the public at 18:00, many small businesses do not open at all.
Prison riots happened, 8 people have died. Some are continuing up to today. 20 inmates have fled from one prison.
No international flight is landing in Italy. MXP is half shut. FR stopped all flights from and to Italy as of midnight yesterday.
Gendarmerie and Customs are blocking every italian trying to enter Austria via Brennerpass and Tarvisio; Austrians can return home, but have to do 14 days quarantine.
A lady has been robbed, robber took her hand sanitizer, left phone, keys and money in the purse.
It's not a pleasant situation.


Told you so. Mad Max scenario unfolding as predicted.
 
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SheikhDjibouti
Posts: 2225
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 4:59 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:15 pm

kalvado wrote:
FatCat wrote:
I was looking at FR24 right now, but I see FR's flights and other Companies also, (LCCs and not) departing from Italy, so what do the newspapers write? Fake news?

I would look for flights TO Italy. Apparently, no company wants their planes and crews to be stranded in a foreign country.

He's right; flights are still heading both in and out of Italy, and they are not all Alitalia.
Currently I see these non-Italian flights airborne, and descending inbound towards their destinations (in Italy)
FR1631 Marseille - Rome
FR6864 Krakow - Palermo
FR6325 Dublin-Milan
FR3057 London-Rome
VY6110 Barcelona-Rome
AF1828 Paris-Bologna
AF1226 Paris-Venice
UX1061 Madrid-Milan
U26173 Bristol - Catania
EW9818 Dusseldorf - Milan
FDX7 Mumbai-Milan (ok so that's freight, but what are the crew going to do? Stay on-board until departure?)

I haven't checked them all, but FR6325 (EI-DWZ) started from Dublin early this morning, so I'm guessing it's an Irish crew.
I'm also guessing after unloading at Milan, they are hopeful they will be allowed to head back to Dublin.

That's just a snapshot; the situation may well change as evening arrives.
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
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Aesma
Posts: 13137
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:20 pm

slider wrote:
I hope the global community holds China accountable for this. Biological warfare, in essence, with unleashing the manmade Wuhan Virus.

Once we get past the irrational panic and disorder, the ChiComs need a reckoning.


China is the major sufferer from this, how can it be biological warfare ? Was Chernobyl USSR nuclear warfare, too ?
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
slider
Posts: 7603
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 11:42 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:39 pm

Aesma wrote:
slider wrote:
I hope the global community holds China accountable for this. Biological warfare, in essence, with unleashing the manmade Wuhan Virus.

Once we get past the irrational panic and disorder, the ChiComs need a reckoning.


China is the major sufferer from this, how can it be biological warfare ? Was Chernobyl USSR nuclear warfare, too ?


Well, Wuhan has one of the largest biolabs and viral laboratories in the world.

And funny how the HKG protests sort of went away, huh?

And the footprint of the virus indicates it's manmade. China created it, it got out and propagated. Creating and using diseases for state goals.
 
IgorD
Posts: 37
Joined: Thu Dec 06, 2012 12:28 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:50 pm

4 percent of sampled employees with mild respiratory complaints of six North-Brabant hospitals in the Netherlands are infected with the corona virus, according to samples of employees of these hospitals. The tests were conducted on Saturday and Sunday at the request of the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) on employees who had mild respiratory complaints.

https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6036462/s ... virus.html

It is either the virus is very mild, or we get an avalanche of serious cases in the coming days.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2830
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:54 pm

slider wrote:
Aesma wrote:
slider wrote:
I hope the global community holds China accountable for this. Biological warfare, in essence, with unleashing the manmade Wuhan Virus.

Once we get past the irrational panic and disorder, the ChiComs need a reckoning.


China is the major sufferer from this, how can it be biological warfare ? Was Chernobyl USSR nuclear warfare, too ?


Well, Wuhan has one of the largest biolabs and viral laboratories in the world.

And funny how the HKG protests sort of went away, huh?

And the footprint of the virus indicates it's manmade. China created it, it got out and propagated. Creating and using diseases for state goals.

Sequence of the virus indicate it is a natural mutation. Check bedford.io for some explanations.
What I think is the real problem of this crisis, though, is that with major of effort towards virus containment, mental health care will suffer...
Or, if you prefer conspiracy theories... US consulate in Wuhan was evacuated very early. Do you think they knew what was coming and true sources of infection better than anyone else?
 
kalvado
Posts: 2830
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:59 pm

IgorD wrote:
4 percent of sampled employees with mild respiratory complaints of six North-Brabant hospitals in the Netherlands are infected with the corona virus, according to samples of employees of these hospitals. The tests were conducted on Saturday and Sunday at the request of the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) on employees who had mild respiratory complaints.

https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6036462/s ... virus.html

It is either the virus is very mild, or we get an avalanche of serious cases in the coming days.

Netherlands report two separate strains of virus. One is common to south europe, eg Switzerland (Italy doesn't post data); the other is area-specific. Not sure what that means in terms of milder strain, though.
 
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bgm
Posts: 2445
Joined: Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:37 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:05 pm

slider wrote:
And the footprint of the virus indicates it's manmade. China created it, it got out and propagated. Creating and using diseases for state goals.


Care to provide a non-tinfoil-hat source for that please?
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:15 pm

Derico wrote:
It's also obvious that the virus degrades rapidly in hot and humid weather. Much too few cases in very vulnerable countries like Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia, etc... Which don't have the most robust system. Also very few cases in Australia, Taiwan, and Africa, all who have big flows of people from and to China. So I am hopeful that when it gets hot and humid in North America and most of Europe, there will be a sharper drop which will provide time.


You're not allowed to mention that here because it's not CDC-approved and Donald Trump believes it, but that appears to be the case. Chinese research I read says it is more closely related to SARS than MERS, which suggests it will subside in warmer weather. I cannot find that link now.

Dieuwer wrote:
A human body is "hot and humid": 37 centigrade, 90% water. The virus does very well in there.
The fact that there are very few REPORTED cases in the countries you mention does not mean there aren't any.


You are panicking and grasping and should probably just keep quiet. A SERS-type virus, like the flu, should have a shorter lifespan in warmer temperature and is less likely to travel in the air with higher humidity, thus slowing its transmission to a virtual halt.
Let's look at Africa. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese workers travelling back and forth, and yet few reported deaths. If it were as widespread and under-reported as you claim, we would see dead bodies in the street like the last Ebola outbreak- they couldn't hide it.

Dieuwer wrote:
Unless the transmission rate is not slower, but the immune system is more effective in warmer climates? Or perhaps the Coronavirus has a mitochondrial component that allows it to specifically attack Caucasians and Chinese?


The same research that links it to SERS said that Asian men are most likely to have more severe reactions because they have more of some receptor that the virus attaches itself.

DIRECTFLT wrote:
https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/news/Pages/order-health-officer-03092020.aspx

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/Diseas ... rings.aspx

County of Santa Clara Issues Order to Cancel Mass Gatherings Due to Increasing Rates of COVID-19

This includes the arena where sports are played.


I am in Ground Zero for California. Waiting for the schools to close, (my district is 75% Asian - ~15% Chinese, mostly nationals), then we will head up to the mountain and get away, since everything will be closed anyway.

My main gripe about this is that they have been reporting these cases and they all started with one person, but they won't give names of those infected so that we can all determine if we may or may not have been exposed. They will only say "X people in Santa Clara County are infected". This information was worthless without names. Now it's too late as "Containment" did not work and they have moved on to "Mitigation". No doubt medical privacy plays the big role here but we lose rights in other ways for this, (quarantined cruise ships), the right to medical privacy should not inhibit the well-being of the rest.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2830
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:22 pm

mham001 wrote:
Derico wrote:
It's also obvious that the virus degrades rapidly in hot and humid weather. Much too few cases in very vulnerable countries like Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia, etc... Which don't have the most robust system. Also very few cases in Australia, Taiwan, and Africa, all who have big flows of people from and to China. So I am hopeful that when it gets hot and humid in North America and most of Europe, there will be a sharper drop which will provide time.


You're not allowed to mention that here because it's not CDC-approved and Donald Trump believes it, but that appears to be the case. Chinese research I read says it is more closely related to SARS than MERS, which suggests it will subside in warmer weather. I cannot find that link now.

Dieuwer wrote:
A human body is "hot and humid": 37 centigrade, 90% water. The virus does very well in there.
The fact that there are very few REPORTED cases in the countries you mention does not mean there aren't any.


You are panicking and grasping and should probably just keep quiet. A SERS-type virus, like the flu, should have a shorter lifespan in warmer temperature and is less likely to travel in the air with higher humidity, thus slowing its transmission to a virtual halt.
Let's look at Africa. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese workers travelling back and forth, and yet few reported deaths. If it were as widespread and under-reported as you claim, we would see dead bodies in the street like the last Ebola outbreak- they couldn't hide it.

Raw numbers of sick and dead are not that high. 60 M people in Italy should mean 2000+ deaths a day from natural causes. With less than 500 total coronacirus deaths in hard hit Italy, I can easily imagine problem not coming up as a problem in less developed areas.
But yes, we can all hope...

mham001 wrote:
I am in Ground Zero for California. Waiting for the schools to close, (my district is 75% Asian - ~15% Chinese, mostly nationals), then we will head up to the mountain and get away, since everything will be closed anyway.

My main gripe about this is that they have been reporting these cases and they all started with one person, but they won't give names of those infected so that we can all determine if we may or may not have been exposed. They will only say "X people in Santa Clara County are infected". This information was worthless without names. Now it's too late as "Containment" did not work and they have moved on to "Mitigation". No doubt medical privacy plays the big role here but we lose rights in other ways for this, (quarantined cruise ships), the right to medical privacy should not inhibit the well-being of the rest.


Medical privacy. They should attempt to contact from the root, though - call those who work at same locations, etc. If you do know their names, they likely know yours.
Maybe less than ideal for what you're looking for, but there are good reasons to keep things less than public.
 
uta999
Posts: 917
Joined: Mon Jun 14, 2010 11:10 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:39 pm

631 deaths now in Italy from 10000 cases. That’s 6% of known cases dying, though it would be less if the unknowns are added. Still a very high number for a ‘flu’ strain as some keep calling it.
Your computer just got better
 
art
Posts: 3439
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:40 pm

slider wrote:
And the footprint of the virus indicates it's manmade.


Based on what? Can you quote a source? Or was your source someone else who did not give you a source?

slider wrote:
China created it, it got out and propagated. Creating and using diseases for state goals.


Biological warfare weapon development is shrouded in secrecy. You could only know what you say is the case if this info was obtained by a spy or was was leaked by someone in the know, couldn't you?
 
kalvado
Posts: 2830
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:57 pm

art wrote:
slider wrote:
China created it, it got out and propagated. Creating and using diseases for state goals.


Biological warfare weapon development is shrouded in secrecy. You could only know what you say is the case if this info was obtained by a spy or was was leaked by someone in the know, couldn't you?

Well, there are few crimes without a trace. In this case, though, genetics says there is no obvious sign of artificial modifications. THings are within natural mutation range of naturally occurring virus.
Alternative explanation is that China is ahead of everyone else in biotechnology. Not by a few years, but by a few decades; so they can do things others cannot even dream about - like predicting virus properties and actively modifying in small increments. Which is, of course, a possibility - but then they really screwed up the execution
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:59 pm

uta999 wrote:
631 deaths now in Italy from 10000 cases. That’s 6% of known cases dying, though it would be less if the unknowns are added. Still a very high number for a ‘flu’ strain as some keep calling it.


If 40% of those 10,000 cases are elderly and they have a 15% chance of dying from it, you already get to the 6%.
Now add those that already have other ailments and the rate will go even higher.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

Image

In short, the higher the average age of your population the worse it will get.
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 6232
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:24 pm

Czech gov't imposed a ban on all public events, where gathering of more than 100 people is expected.
Starting from tomorrow all schools, cinemas, theaters, sports leagues, etc
will be shut down.
Current count of known infected is at 61, a significant jump from yesterday's 38.

https://www.radio.cz/en/section/curraff ... own-source
 
slider
Posts: 7603
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 11:42 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:24 pm

uta999 wrote:
631 deaths now in Italy from 10000 cases. That’s 6% of known cases dying, though it would be less if the unknowns are added. Still a very high number for a ‘flu’ strain as some keep calling it.


Italy has the oldest population in Europe, with about 23% of residents 65 or older, according to The New York Times. The median age in the country is 47.3, compared with 38.3 in the United States, the Times reported. Many of Italy's deaths have been among people in their 80s, and 90s, a population known to be more susceptible to severe complications from COVID-19, according to The Local.

https://www.livescience.com/why-italy-c ... -high.html



***
The naivete in this thread is staggering. You may want to dismiss China as a bad actor, but it's not going to stop trying to steamroll anyone or anything it chooses.
 
User avatar
gatibosgru
Posts: 1770
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:48 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:37 pm

slider wrote:
Aesma wrote:
slider wrote:
I hope the global community holds China accountable for this. Biological warfare, in essence, with unleashing the manmade Wuhan Virus.

Once we get past the irrational panic and disorder, the ChiComs need a reckoning.


China is the major sufferer from this, how can it be biological warfare ? Was Chernobyl USSR nuclear warfare, too ?


Well, Wuhan has one of the largest biolabs and viral laboratories in the world.

And funny how the HKG protests sort of went away, huh?

And the footprint of the virus indicates it's manmade. China created it, it got out and propagated. Creating and using diseases for state goals.


Yikes. What a load of BS.
@DadCelo
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1288
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:46 pm

Cases in Italy exceed 10.000.

http://www.open.online/2020/03/10/coron ... marzo/amp/

China had this tally on January 31st.
If a Wuhan style progression is recorded, Italy will have 100.000 cases within less than 3 weeks.

France, Germany and Spain are trailing Italy by a week and should reach 10.000 cases by this time next week.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:49 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Cases in Italy exceed 10.000.

http://www.open.online/2020/03/10/coron ... marzo/amp/

China had this tally on January 31st.
If a Wuhan style progression is recorded, Italy will have 100.000 cases within less than 3 weeks.

France, Germany and Spain are trailing Italy by a week and should reach 10.000 cases by this time next week.


Unless they take a page from the Japanese. ;)
 
B717fan
Posts: 19
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2019 1:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:10 pm

How come Italy is getting hit so hard by the virus?
 
kalvado
Posts: 2830
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:14 pm

B717fan wrote:
How come Italy is getting hit so hard by the virus?

They got (un)lucky ticket. France, Germany, Switzerland and a few others will be in the same position as Italy today within a week or two.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 11540
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:30 pm

kalvado wrote:
B717fan wrote:
How come Italy is getting hit so hard by the virus?

They got (un)lucky ticket. France, Germany, Switzerland and a few others will be in the same position as Italy today within a week or two.



Interesting chart here.

https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status ... 8578138112

Shows that Japan's quarantine helped, and everyone else is trending the same line , just a few steps back.

Image from the twitter feed:


Image
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:35 pm

casinterest wrote:
kalvado wrote:
B717fan wrote:
How come Italy is getting hit so hard by the virus?

They got (un)lucky ticket. France, Germany, Switzerland and a few others will be in the same position as Italy today within a week or two.



Interesting chart here.

https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status ... 8578138112

Shows that Japan's quarantine helped, and everyone else is trending the same line , just a few steps back.

Image from the twitter feed:


Image


If you believe the FAKE Japanese numbers in the first place...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/worl ... virus.html
Last edited by Dieuwer on Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
bennett123
Posts: 9732
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:37 pm

Meanwhile in the USA

18:20
Trump says virus will 'go away'
US President Donald Trump has urged Americans to stay calm and said the virus would "go away".
He was speaking, Reuters news agency reports, after meeting Republican senators to discuss the coronavirus outbreak in Washington DC.
He said the meeting had focused on stimulus plans for the economy in the midst of the outbreak, without giving any further details.
He told journalists he had no symptoms of the virus and felt no reason to get tested, and that he felt good. It has emerged that he came into contact with Republican congressmen who placed themselves in isolation after being in contact with someone who had tested positive for the virus.

I can only hope that this is for media only, and does not reflect policy.

Source BBC website.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 11540
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:44 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
kalvado wrote:
They got (un)lucky ticket. France, Germany, Switzerland and a few others will be in the same position as Italy today within a week or two.



Interesting chart here.

https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status ... 8578138112

Shows that Japan's quarantine helped, and everyone else is trending the same line , just a few steps back.

Image from the twitter feed:


Image


If you believe the FAKE Japanese numbers in the first place...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/worl ... virus.html


The thing about "fake" numbers is that math eventually catches up.

What we see is caseloads by hospitals. There are still many people that have it and are not seeking treatment. That is what is spreading it. Quarantines such as Japan's help to slow that spread. It doesn't stop it. We all need food and basics and some need to work.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 563
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:46 pm

bennett123 wrote:
Meanwhile in the USA

18:20
Trump says virus will 'go away'
US President Donald Trump has urged Americans to stay calm and said the virus would "go away".
He was speaking, Reuters news agency reports, after meeting Republican senators to discuss the coronavirus outbreak in Washington DC.
He said the meeting had focused on stimulus plans for the economy in the midst of the outbreak, without giving any further details.
He told journalists he had no symptoms of the virus and felt no reason to get tested, and that he felt good. It has emerged that he came into contact with Republican congressmen who placed themselves in isolation after being in contact with someone who had tested positive for the virus.

I can only hope that this is for media only, and does not reflect policy.

Source BBC website.


Orange maaaaan bad :)
https://twitter.com/rising_serpent/stat ... 64096?s=20
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:53 pm

casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:


Interesting chart here.

https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status ... 8578138112

Shows that Japan's quarantine helped, and everyone else is trending the same line , just a few steps back.

Image from the twitter feed:


Image


If you believe the FAKE Japanese numbers in the first place...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/worl ... virus.html


The thing about "fake" numbers is that math eventually catches up.

What we see is caseloads by hospitals. There are still many people that have it and are not seeking treatment. That is what is spreading it. Quarantines such as Japan's help to slow that spread. It doesn't stop it. We all need food and basics and some need to work.


Why don't you read the NYT article first before continuing to defend the Jap numbers.
 
User avatar
Tugger
Posts: 10608
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 8:38 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:55 pm

PixelPilot wrote:

Yep, that;s what happened. And the people who claim no dem will ever give Trump or his administration due credit are just not right.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 11540
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:56 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

If you believe the FAKE Japanese numbers in the first place...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/worl ... virus.html


The thing about "fake" numbers is that math eventually catches up.

What we see is caseloads by hospitals. There are still many people that have it and are not seeking treatment. That is what is spreading it. Quarantines such as Japan's help to slow that spread. It doesn't stop it. We all need food and basics and some need to work.


Why don't you read the NYT article first before continuing to defend the Jap numbers.


It's behind a paywall. Post something intelligent about it.

https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h0 ... cture.html

This article from Japan has details on what they know internally, and details on how they are blocking large gatherings. They are doing more to slow it's growth.
Where ever you go, there you are.

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