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Cadet985
Posts: 2245
Joined: Sat Mar 02, 2002 6:45 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:25 pm

dampfnudel wrote:
Cadet985 wrote:
Now the NCAA March Madness Tournament will be played in front of empty stands.

People are seriously overreacting to this.

Marc

Time will tell. It’s quite possible you’ll be singing a different tune 2-4 weeks from now. Part of me hopes you’re right, but I think it was inevitable that we would eventually experience a pandemic reminiscent of the Spanish Flu at some point this century.


125,863
Total Confirmed Cases

4,595
Total Deceased

5,829
Total Serious

66,722
Total Recovered

114⁄195
Total Countries Infected

This data is from https://ncov2019.live/

I look at those numbers, and I’m just not seeing the cause for panic. I’d be willing to bet you that if information could be released, NYC (for example) has far more cases of the seasonal flu. I don’t see any need to alter my lifestyle/plans, and I think the media is trying to scare us.

125,863 confirmed cases out of a global population of 7.55 billion (global population was gotten from Siri). That comes out to 0.001798% of the population infected.

Marc
 
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Aesma
Posts: 13135
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:37 pm

You can add at least a 0 to the number of infected, and that means many more will get infected. Especially if life continues as usual.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
dampfnudel
Posts: 588
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:42 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:42 pm

Cadet985 wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
Cadet985 wrote:
Now the NCAA March Madness Tournament will be played in front of empty stands.

People are seriously overreacting to this.

Marc

Time will tell. It’s quite possible you’ll be singing a different tune 2-4 weeks from now. Part of me hopes you’re right, but I think it was inevitable that we would eventually experience a pandemic reminiscent of the Spanish Flu at some point this century.


125,863
Total Confirmed Cases

4,595
Total Deceased

5,829
Total Serious

66,722
Total Recovered

114⁄195
Total Countries Infected

This data is from https://ncov2019.live/

I look at those numbers, and I’m just not seeing the cause for panic. I’d be willing to bet you that if information could be released, NYC (for example) has far more cases of the seasonal flu. I don’t see any need to alter my lifestyle/plans, and I think the media is trying to scare us.

125,863 confirmed cases out of a global population of 7.55 billion (global population was gotten from Siri). That comes out to 0.001798% of the population infected.

Marc

Dr. Fauci said several times that it’s 10 times more lethal than the flu. It’s also more contagious. Yes, the media are overdoing it at times, but I‘m not sure how beneficial it is to minimize it by comparing it to flu. You can say it probably won’t be as bad as the Spanish flu was which is what I believe or you can say more people will die from cancer, auto accidents, etc., but to minimize it by comparing it to the regular flu rings a little hollow in my opinion.
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Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:49 pm

Italy just announced the closure of all restaurants and bars, along with most stores.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/italy-hard ... 1583962093

It seems this is just for the next 15 days, but I am starting to wonder if the Italian Government is not becoming too reactionary.
At a certain point, the economic cost simply outweigh the benefits.
 
dampfnudel
Posts: 588
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:42 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:55 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Italy just announced the closure of all restaurants and bars, along with most stores.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/italy-hard ... 1583962093

It seems this is just for the next 15 days, but I am starting to wonder if the Italian Government is not becoming too reactionary.
At a certain point, the economic cost simply outweigh the benefits.

With very few customers, occupancy restrictions and mostly empty restaurants, it may be better for them to close.
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Cadet985
Posts: 2245
Joined: Sat Mar 02, 2002 6:45 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:57 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Italy just announced the closure of all restaurants and bars, along with most stores.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/italy-hard ... 1583962093

It seems this is just for the next 15 days, but I am starting to wonder if the Italian Government is not becoming too reactionary.
At a certain point, the economic cost simply outweigh the benefits.


I wonder if the Italian Government is going to pay all of the people that they just forbade from working? Coronavirus or not...people still need to pay bills, eat, etc.

Marc
Last edited by Cadet985 on Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:57 pm

dampfnudel wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Italy just announced the closure of all restaurants and bars, along with most stores.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/italy-hard ... 1583962093

It seems this is just for the next 15 days, but I am starting to wonder if the Italian Government is not becoming too reactionary.
At a certain point, the economic cost simply outweigh the benefits.

With very few customers, occupancy restrictions and mostly empty restaurants, it may be better for them to close.


That is true, but PM Conte better be prepared to handle a Great Depression next. Because that's what he likely will get if this lasts longer than a couple of weeks. And we all know what happens in Italy after a Great Depression.
 
MoonC
Posts: 338
Joined: Fri Dec 06, 2013 1:26 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:03 pm

The number of cases in Italy alone has risen by 2313, deaths by 196, all in the last 24 hours.

If you people are willing to take your chances, feel free to move.
 
KFLLCFII
Posts: 3579
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:08 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:10 pm

President Trump to address the U.S. at 9pm tonight.

Now would be a good time to declare war on China. They're at their most vulnerable with the least amount of allies. Get it over with.
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1288
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:10 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Italy just announced the closure of all restaurants and bars, along with most stores.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/italy-hard ... 1583962093

It seems this is just for the next 15 days, but I am starting to wonder if the Italian Government is not becoming too reactionary.
At a certain point, the economic cost simply outweigh the benefits.

With very few customers, occupancy restrictions and mostly empty restaurants, it may be better for them to close.


That is true, but PM Conte better be prepared to handle a Great Depression next. Because that's what he likely will get if this lasts longer than a couple of weeks. And we all know what happens in Italy after a Great Depression.


I think that you guys are not seeing the full picture.
Today, the equivalent of an A321 load of patients (196) have been put in coffins in Italy.
Everyday that the virus is allowed to run rampant, the equivalent number of people as a large narrowbody crash is dying, but even worse, this is an exponential growth, so soon it would be thousands per day.
Letting thousands die per day is just unacceptable and would create a depression of its own.

PM Conte and the regional governments have taken the adequate measures of keeping everyone home, in a Wuhan-style lockdown.
This is the only way and even that will only start working in say a few days to 4 weeks, until all people who are infected and their families are isolated.
So we're going to keep seeing a growth until everyone infected is identified, so it' s likely that Italy will exceed 100.000 infected and we'll see a death rate of thousands per day at some point.


What shocks me is that people are still not taking the safe road and wondering "is it really necessary?".
Italy's politicians were in that camp until the situation was out of control and now regreting not taking action earlier.
China's politicians were in that same camp until it was there too.
France, Germany and Spain are wasting time as we speak and think they can still manage this, however I'm hearing that hospitals in Madrid are already overflowing.

In a week or so, France, Germany and Spain will have the same numbers as Italy, will be forced to take draconian measures and people will still be wondering if those countries aren't overreacting.

:banghead:
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 12306
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:18 pm

Cadet985 wrote:
Now the NCAA March Madness Tournament will be played in front of empty stands.

People are seriously overreacting to this.

Marc


Dr. Fauci was asked about that in the House session this morning and his answer (paraphrasing) was: if the fatality rate is 1%, this is 10x deadlier than the seasonal flu. That means if NBA has to play in front of empty arenas, so be it. Large gatherings of people will put too many at risk.

GOP reps repeatedly tried to get him to quote projections and he said it wasn’t possible without commitment to a mitigation plan. But he warned if we are complacent, the number impacted will be in the millions.
Last edited by Aaron747 on Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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DeltaMD90
Posts: 8928
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:19 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
What shocks me is that people are still not taking the safe road and wondering "is it really necessary?"

That's because there are consequences to the safe road. Huge economic consequences. Depression causing consequences.

I don't know what to think. This does seem worse than the flu, I'm sure we can agree to that. Perhaps it running rampant is the worst thing since the Spanish Flu. Perhaps we are overreacting and are going to crash the economy needlessly.

I think there is merit to comparing it with flu deaths, cancer deaths, auto accidents, etc. These all happen and we don't bat an eye. A really bad flu season happens and we don't bat an eye. Maybe tens of thousands will die of our billions of people, but we will move on... Or maybe tens of millions

I'm not sure. I do want to take this seriously but it's a much harder question than you're making it out to be IMO. That's why people are hesitant
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 12306
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:22 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
What shocks me is that people are still not taking the safe road and wondering "is it really necessary?"

That's because there are consequences to the safe road. Huge economic consequences. Depression causing consequences.

I don't know what to think. This does seem worse than the flu, I'm sure we can agree to that. Perhaps it running rampant is the worst thing since the Spanish Flu. Perhaps we are overreacting and are going to crash the economy needlessly.

I think there is merit to comparing it with flu deaths, cancer deaths, auto accidents, etc. These all happen and we don't bat an eye. A really bad flu season happens and we don't bat an eye. Maybe tens of thousands will die of our billions of people, but we will move on... Or maybe tens of millions

I'm not sure. I do want to take this seriously but it's a much harder question than you're making it out to be IMO. That's why people are hesitant


It comes down to a fundamental question of values. Public health professionals are committed by oath to save any life at any age. Not tanking the economy through mitigation will require making the judgment that people over 70 at highest risk/mortality from this are more expendable than usual because the losses just aren’t worth it to those younger.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1288
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:24 pm

The situation in Japan is very worrysome.
There is a wide geographical spread of the outbreak extending to almost every prefecture with minimal testing going on.

The official numbers are growing at about 50 per day, but this is ridiculous considering the exponential growth in countries like Italy where population density and public transportation are more sparse.

Image

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202003 ... 81000.html


I'm willing to wager Japan is reaching towards the million of infected, with 80% of them asymptomatic.
In Japan some are being confirmed post-mortem after dropping dead.
So it's much worse as Japan is not even bothering to isolate and treat patients.
We'll probably see the result in a few weeks, and PM Abe will probably just resign and leave others to take care of the solution.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:27 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
What shocks me is that people are still not taking the safe road and wondering "is it really necessary?"

That's because there are consequences to the safe road. Huge economic consequences. Depression causing consequences.

I don't know what to think. This does seem worse than the flu, I'm sure we can agree to that. Perhaps it running rampant is the worst thing since the Spanish Flu. Perhaps we are overreacting and are going to crash the economy needlessly.

I think there is merit to comparing it with flu deaths, cancer deaths, auto accidents, etc. These all happen and we don't bat an eye. A really bad flu season happens and we don't bat an eye. Maybe tens of thousands will die of our billions of people, but we will move on... Or maybe tens of millions

I'm not sure. I do want to take this seriously but it's a much harder question than you're making it out to be IMO. That's why people are hesitant


It seems we are taking a similar road as the response to the Spanish Flu of 1918: schools, shops, theaters, and other businesses closed. Mass quarantines.
It was warranted then. It could be warranted now. Fortunately, I am not the one who is making that decision. Only history in hindsight will eventually give a verdict whether the Coronavirus Pandemic was handled well or not.
Last edited by Dieuwer on Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1288
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:28 pm

Trump will announce economical measures, health measures and probably add Italy to the "do not travel" list.
Mandatory quarantine for people who've been in Italy in the past 14 days.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/11/poli ... index.html
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:32 pm

I'm not sure what's up with the endless personal attacks in this thread. If you disagree with me (or anyone else) just say so.
Ad hominem is just extremely childish.
 
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DeltaMD90
Posts: 8928
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:37 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
DeltaMD90 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
. Not tanking the economy through mitigation will require making the judgment that people over 70 at highest risk/mortality from this are more expendable than usual because the losses just aren’t worth it to those younger.

And having 70mph / 120kph speed limits vs 50mph / 80kph make some human lives expendable just for convenience.

I can go on with many examples, and I know it isn't exactly apples to apples, but we make decisions every single day that value money or convenience over statistically saving lives

I'm not saying we should just yolo this or not take it seriously. Maybe these economy busting measures are needed to prevent historic levels of deaths and poverty. But "saving some lives", while noble, is not always realistic. Everyone on Earth does this cost / benefit analysis, otherwise we'd all live in bubbles

Furthermore, it seems like the cat is out of the bag. We can do things to mitigate the spread but draconian measures to completely stop it won't even work
 
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Aesma
Posts: 13135
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:48 pm

The economic impact was going to happen as soon as China quarantined Wuhan. Plants are/were still running some time after that, but more and more production is being hampered by a lack of parts from China. Some ships from China are still arriving, but after that, there is nothing on the way.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 12306
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:48 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
DeltaMD90 wrote:

And having 70mph / 120kph speed limits vs 50mph / 80kph make some human lives expendable just for convenience.

I can go on with many examples, and I know it isn't exactly apples to apples, but we make decisions every single day that value money or convenience over statistically saving lives

I'm not saying we should just yolo this or not take it seriously. Maybe these economy busting measures are needed to prevent historic levels of deaths and poverty. But "saving some lives", while noble, is not always realistic. Everyone on Earth does this cost / benefit analysis, otherwise we'd all live in bubbles

Furthermore, it seems like the cat is out of the bag. We can do things to mitigate the spread but draconian measures to completely stop it won't even work


Dr. Redfield’s testimony was pretty clear about that - he added to Dr. Fauci’s point on aggressive mitigation saying that limiting spread is a priority to prevent rate of spread from transitioning between arithmetic and logarithmic growth.

Regardless of who is running the risk tables, CDC and NIH see their obligated role as safeguarding all at-risk groups to best possible effect.
Last edited by Aaron747 on Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 2045
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:50 pm

Cadet985 wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
Cadet985 wrote:
Now the NCAA March Madness Tournament will be played in front of empty stands.

People are seriously overreacting to this.

Marc

Time will tell. It’s quite possible you’ll be singing a different tune 2-4 weeks from now. Part of me hopes you’re right, but I think it was inevitable that we would eventually experience a pandemic reminiscent of the Spanish Flu at some point this century.


125,863
Total Confirmed Cases

4,595
Total Deceased

5,829
Total Serious

66,722
Total Recovered

114⁄195
Total Countries Infected

This data is from https://ncov2019.live/

I look at those numbers, and I’m just not seeing the cause for panic. I’d be willing to bet you that if information could be released, NYC (for example) has far more cases of the seasonal flu. I don’t see any need to alter my lifestyle/plans, and I think the media is trying to scare us.

125,863 confirmed cases out of a global population of 7.55 billion (global population was gotten from Siri). That comes out to 0.001798% of the population infected.

Marc


The context piece. The speed with which it’s spreading is increasing.

On 4 March - 2300 new cases
On 6 March - 3625
On 8 March - 3892
On 9 March - 4390
On 10 March - 4567

Today - 7000+

If 10% of that needs critical care, hospitals are going to be overwhelmed in short order.

The caveat is that there are probably thousands going unreported.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1042
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:29 pm

Germany, up to date numbers.
Official numbers, last update at 6 pm. 1567 cases. Today there was the third death in Germany, again from the hot spot "Heinsberg".
The other two death have been on Monday, 1x "Heinsberg" and 1x Essen.
When official numbers will be updated next time tomorrow morning at 8 am, it will be more than 2000, these have been already announced by the states but are still not implemented.
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Fallzahlen.html

Emergency plans in nursing homes, at hospitals, at cites and countries are implemented. Visitor numbers to patients in hospitals are limited (in high risk areas, to one visitor at once and patient), in high risk departments like pneumonology departments, it is now denied. Visitors in nursing houses is now also restricted, in risk areas, it is denied. Corona test centers have been implemented at hospitals, cities , countries, in some case even in a form of drive in. I have seen one today from 50 m distance. If someone is suspected to have it or someone has had a contact with a coroavirus patient, call your family doctor, you will get a code number, with it go to one of the test sites and you will be tested (regular outside in a tent).
There is no sign of collapse of the health care system in Germany. Coronavirus test capacity is now 20.000 tests per day for Germany.

RKI has now a new coronavirus site, with numbers, links, guidelines, contact details e.g.
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/nCoV.html

And do not ask, what the staff of the hospitals is thinking about this exaggerated response...
 
NYCVIE
Posts: 281
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2016 11:01 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:34 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The situation in Japan is very worrysome.
There is a wide geographical spread of the outbreak extending to almost every prefecture with minimal testing going on.

The official numbers are growing at about 50 per day, but this is ridiculous considering the exponential growth in countries like Italy where population density and public transportation are more sparse.

Image

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202003 ... 81000.html


I'm willing to wager Japan is reaching towards the million of infected, with 80% of them asymptomatic.
In Japan some are being confirmed post-mortem after dropping dead.
So it's much worse as Japan is not even bothering to isolate and treat patients.
We'll probably see the result in a few weeks, and PM Abe will probably just resign and leave others to take care of the solution.


Million? Give me a break. You've been saying for weeks now that we'll see Japan fall apart and it just isn't happening. Hong Kong and Singapore are also extremely dense, yet comparatively low cases. Is that a conspiracy also?
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1288
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:36 pm

Le Figaro reporting the same fears as I have above for France.
Basically, the graphs are following the same curve as Italy, only 8 days apart.

Italy--------------------------- -------France--------------------------------------------USA
February 28th 889 cases-------March 7th 949 cases-------------------------March 11th 994 cases
February 29th 1128 cases-----March 8th 1209 cases------------------------March 12th 1301 cases
March 1st 1701 cases-----------March 9th 1412 cases
March 2nd 2032 cases-------- -March 10th 1784 cases
March 3rd 2502 cases----------March 11th 2281 cases
March 4th 3089 cases-----------March 12th (2750 cases)*
March 11th 12462 cases--------March 19th (10.000+ cases)*--------------March 23rd (10.000+cases)*

*estimates

Coronavirus: la France suit-elle la même trajectoire épidémique que l’Italie?
https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/corona ... e-20200310
 
flyguy89
Posts: 2974
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:21 am

ElPistolero wrote:
Cadet985 wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
Time will tell. It’s quite possible you’ll be singing a different tune 2-4 weeks from now. Part of me hopes you’re right, but I think it was inevitable that we would eventually experience a pandemic reminiscent of the Spanish Flu at some point this century.


125,863
Total Confirmed Cases

4,595
Total Deceased

5,829
Total Serious

66,722
Total Recovered

114⁄195
Total Countries Infected

This data is from https://ncov2019.live/

I look at those numbers, and I’m just not seeing the cause for panic. I’d be willing to bet you that if information could be released, NYC (for example) has far more cases of the seasonal flu. I don’t see any need to alter my lifestyle/plans, and I think the media is trying to scare us.

125,863 confirmed cases out of a global population of 7.55 billion (global population was gotten from Siri). That comes out to 0.001798% of the population infected.

Marc


The context piece. The speed with which it’s spreading is increasing.

On 4 March - 2300 new cases
On 6 March - 3625
On 8 March - 3892
On 9 March - 4390
On 10 March - 4567

Today - 7000+

If 10% of that needs critical care, hospitals are going to be overwhelmed in short order.

The caveat is that there are probably thousands going unreported.

Can you really definitively say infection rate is increasing when you don't have a handle on the actual infected population size? What seems to be happening is more testing and thus more case confirmations.
 
dampfnudel
Posts: 588
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:42 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:27 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Trump will announce economical measures, health measures and probably add Italy to the "do not travel" list.
Mandatory quarantine for people who've been in Italy in the past 14 days.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/11/poli ... index.html

At this point, all/most of Europe should probably be included in that mandatory quarantine, maybe even canceling all flights into the US from Europe/Asia until the situation stabilizes.
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2567
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:43 am

NYCVIE wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
The situation in Japan is very worrysome.
There is a wide geographical spread of the outbreak extending to almost every prefecture with minimal testing going on.

The official numbers are growing at about 50 per day, but this is ridiculous considering the exponential growth in countries like Italy where population density and public transportation are more sparse.

Image

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202003 ... 81000.html


I'm willing to wager Japan is reaching towards the million of infected, with 80% of them asymptomatic.
In Japan some are being confirmed post-mortem after dropping dead.
So it's much worse as Japan is not even bothering to isolate and treat patients.
We'll probably see the result in a few weeks, and PM Abe will probably just resign and leave others to take care of the solution.


Million? Give me a break. You've been saying for weeks now that we'll see Japan fall apart and it just isn't happening. Hong Kong and Singapore are also extremely dense, yet comparatively low cases. Is that a conspiracy also?


Don't you think it's a bit strange that Japan with 126 million people have the same amount of Corona cases as Norway with 5.4 million people? Japan official numbers are 639. Norway official numbers are 629.

Norway and Japan are very similar in size, fairly close in type of climate, how advanced government functions are etc.. Density of population is far different though.

Everything points to the numbers in Japan being under reported by a large factor. Norway has only had this virus for a week or so. Japan has had it for more than a month. Population density is far higher. Looking at the exponential growth we see in Europe, and adding the time factor, Japan has at least 100,000 cases. Probably far higher.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:53 am

One big difference between Norway and Japan.... Japan is organizing the Summer Olympics.
I am sure, EVERYTHING in their power is used to make Japan "look good".
I am highly skeptical of the Japanese numbers as well. But no matter. If it really is as bad as Waterbomber2 implies, we should soon see satellite footage of "bodies piling up in the streets."
 
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casinterest
Posts: 11525
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:06 am

Trump is banning all Travel to Europe, even while lying about the European response. Yet he is not applying the restrictions to the UK who are just as deep in it as we are.

Opening up some treatment options which is ok, but still a late turnaround for "not an issue"
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
mdsh00
Posts: 4043
Joined: Mon May 17, 2004 11:28 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:11 am

casinterest wrote:
Trump is banning all Travel to Europe, even while lying about the European response. Yet he is not applying the restrictions to the UK who are just as deep in it as we are.

Opening up some treatment options which is ok, but still a late turnaround for "not an issue"


Yeah I don't get this. It's not hard to travel between the UK and mainland Europe.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 555
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:12 am

dampfnudel wrote:
Cadet985 wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
Time will tell. It’s quite possible you’ll be singing a different tune 2-4 weeks from now. Part of me hopes you’re right, but I think it was inevitable that we would eventually experience a pandemic reminiscent of the Spanish Flu at some point this century.


125,863
Total Confirmed Cases

4,595
Total Deceased

5,829
Total Serious

66,722
Total Recovered

114⁄195
Total Countries Infected

This data is from https://ncov2019.live/

I look at those numbers, and I’m just not seeing the cause for panic. I’d be willing to bet you that if information could be released, NYC (for example) has far more cases of the seasonal flu. I don’t see any need to alter my lifestyle/plans, and I think the media is trying to scare us.

125,863 confirmed cases out of a global population of 7.55 billion (global population was gotten from Siri). That comes out to 0.001798% of the population infected.

Marc

Dr. Fauci said several times that it’s 10 times more lethal than the flu. It’s also more contagious. Yes, the media are overdoing it at times, but I‘m not sure how beneficial it is to minimize it by comparing it to flu. You can say it probably won’t be as bad as the Spanish flu was which is what I believe or you can say more people will die from cancer, auto accidents, etc., but to minimize it by comparing it to the regular flu rings a little hollow in my opinion.


I saw the Dr Fauci 1% number, but the denominator is still fuzzy. 1% of infected persons, assuming 70% infection rate? assuming 350 million people in the USa, that means 2.5 million deaths will occur in the USA this year. Is that what he was saying? Honestly? According to what I found at census.gov, there were 2.6 million deaths in the US in 2015.

So, the death rate in the USA will double this year, according to Dr Fauci? That is a truly staggering claim. If not, then I wish he would clarify his comments.

I woke up this morning setting out to confirm if 1-2% death rates are really real. I continue believe this is false information that is not based on deaths seen in South Korea, China or Italy. We should be seeing regions with large infection rates, and if so, those deaths should be rolling in (abnormal numbers of people dying in cities). Within 1 week, we'll be clearer on that.
Last edited by LCDFlight on Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2567
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:21 am

casinterest wrote:
Trump is banning all Travel to Europe, even while lying about the European response. Yet he is not applying the restrictions to the UK who are just as deep in it as we are.

Opening up some treatment options which is ok, but still a late turnaround for "not an issue"


He's not lying about the European response. The EU should have closed all external borders weeks ago. It failed to do so, despite plenty of warnings. Now we see the consequences. Border controls are popping up inside Europe again, but it's too late. The situation is already out of control.
 
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casinterest
Posts: 11525
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:24 am

JetBuddy wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Trump is banning all Travel to Europe, even while lying about the European response. Yet he is not applying the restrictions to the UK who are just as deep in it as we are.

Opening up some treatment options which is ok, but still a late turnaround for "not an issue"


He's not lying about the European response. The EU should have closed all external borders weeks ago. It failed to do so, despite plenty of warnings. Now we see the consequences. Border controls are popping up inside Europe again, but it's too late. The situation is already out of control.


We already had it in the US from China. Closing down to Europe could have happened weeks ago if this wasn't just a nothing as Trump claimed.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:25 am

Market is going to crash mega bad tomorrow on Trumps decision.
 
dampfnudel
Posts: 588
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:29 am

CNN just reported that Tom Hanks and his wife have tested positive for coronavirus/COVID-19 in Australia.
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casinterest
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:33 am

dampfnudel wrote:
CNN just reported that Tom Hanks and his wife have tested positive for coronavirus/COVID-19 in Australia.


Yep, it is all over the news feed now.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 12306
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:33 am

dampfnudel wrote:
CNN just reported that Tom Hanks and his wife have tested positive for coronavirus/COVID-19 in Australia.


He put out a statement about it just moments ago - very mature attitude:

https://twitter.com/tomhanks/status/123 ... 07104?s=21
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
dampfnudel
Posts: 588
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:41 am

The NBA has suspended the season after tonight’s games.
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716131
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:43 am

Qatar confirms 238 cases in just 1 day.

https://thepeninsulaqatar.com/article/1 ... r-Ministry
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
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casinterest
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:45 am

dampfnudel wrote:
The NBA has suspended the season after tonight’s games.

The economic shockwave is going to be worse than the actual disease by the time this is all done.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
AA747123
Posts: 287
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:15 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:49 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Market is going to crash mega bad tomorrow on Trumps decision.


Thank god I moved my money out of the market today. I know financial advisors say "dont do it, ride it out" but I cannot afford to lose anymore.!
 
Newark727
Posts: 2004
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:42 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:54 am

dampfnudel wrote:
The NBA has suspended the season after tonight’s games.


Seemed like an overreaction at first, but if a player has tested positive like they say, that puts entire teams at risk, so I guess it was probably the right call.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:54 am

casinterest wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
The NBA has suspended the season after tonight’s games.

The economic shockwave is going to be worse than the actual disease by the time this is all done.


Those that dislike Trump probably will be pleased if his term ends in November. I can’t see him being re-elected if the unemployment rate is 90% or so by that time.
 
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cjg225
Posts: 1979
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:03 am

casinterest wrote:
The economic shockwave is going to be worse than the actual disease by the time this is all done.

Very much so. This is the first time I'm thinking this will have long-term impacts on society.
Restoring Penn State's transportation heritage...
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:08 am

cjg225 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
The economic shockwave is going to be worse than the actual disease by the time this is all done.

Very much so. This is the first time I'm thinking this will have long-term impacts on society.


Absolutely.
 
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stl07
Posts: 2454
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:09 am

Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
The NBA has suspended the season after tonight’s games.

The economic shockwave is going to be worse than the actual disease by the time this is all done.


Those that dislike Trump probably will be pleased if his term ends in November. I can’t see him being re-elected if the unemployment rate is 90% or so by that time.

Nah, even the most liberal people I know will not like it if things get that bad. People have their favorites, but unlike what social media likes to tell you, very few people are actually foolish
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:11 am

stl07 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
The economic shockwave is going to be worse than the actual disease by the time this is all done.


Those that dislike Trump probably will be pleased if his term ends in November. I can’t see him being re-elected if the unemployment rate is 90% or so by that time.

Nah, even the most liberal people I know will not like it if things get that bad. People have their favorites, but unlike what social media likes to tell you, very few people are actually foolish


Was Hoover not a one-time President?
 
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stl07
Posts: 2454
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 8:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:21 am

Dieuwer wrote:
stl07 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

Those that dislike Trump probably will be pleased if his term ends in November. I can’t see him being re-elected if the unemployment rate is 90% or so by that time.

Nah, even the most liberal people I know will not like it if things get that bad. People have their favorites, but unlike what social media likes to tell you, very few people are actually foolish


Was Hoover not a one-time President?

You said "Those that dislike Trump probably will be pleased"

Nobody will be pleased with 90% unemployment
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:26 am

stl07 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
stl07 wrote:
Nah, even the most liberal people I know will not like it if things get that bad. People have their favorites, but unlike what social media likes to tell you, very few people are actually foolish


Was Hoover not a one-time President?

You said "Those that dislike Trump probably will be pleased"

Nobody will be pleased with 90% unemployment


I mean pleased if he’s no longer POTUS. Obviously not pleased with skyhigh unemployment.
 
User avatar
stl07
Posts: 2454
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 8:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:30 am

Dieuwer wrote:
stl07 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:

Was Hoover not a one-time President?

You said "Those that dislike Trump probably will be pleased"

Nobody will be pleased with 90% unemployment


I mean pleased if he’s no longer POTUS. Obviously not pleased with skyhigh unemployment.

Ok, that's fair I guess haha. I thought you meant they would be happy with the situation overall as it got rid of Donald. I can tell you, I'm no Trump fan, but I would much rather he be president again than for the economy to tank.
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.

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