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AirWorthy99
Posts: 1389
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:18 pm

scbriml wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
So I applaud this.


Did you also applaud when Trump claimed Corona was a Democrat hoax? :sarcastic:


FALSE:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opin ... rus-a-hoax
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
Etika
Posts: 31
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:21 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Etika wrote:
This action might buy time if it were combined with aggressive action to identify, contain, and isolate existing outbreaks. However, with internal response being lackluster, it is not going to help one bit. In fact, the pattern of cases suggests that there might already being a lot of internal community transmission occuring. Thus, the number of cases prevented will in all likelyhood be neglible compared to domestic cases.

This action might have helped two weeks ago. Now it is too late for it to have any kind of effect and it will draw attention and resources from the actions that would be needed for the current situation. Basically, the US government response is heading down the Italian path: early failures to identify the true scope of situation means that actions are constantly implemented too late for them to have any effect anymore.


Can't understand how the US actions are down to the "Italian path". This virus originated in China, at the same time we were getting imported cases from China, but at a lower rate than Europe in fact. If there is info you might find that in the US there were cases popping out even before the first case in Italy.

Italy or the EU did not enforce any sort of restrictions when Trump announced theirs... The EU with its open borders got this in an instant because of Italy, not China, not the US.

There are 12K cases in Italy alone, if anything you can say that the US has done a far better job considering we have 10% of that, and our population is over 300 million.


This is not about travel bans or when the cases appeared. It is about number of cases where the source cannot be tracked to known origin. The fraction of such cases indicates how many unidentified cases are in community. And that in turn indicates what fraction of cases are currently undiagnosed.

The problem is US is that the number of unknown source cases is far too great for its total number of diagnosed cases. That in turn strongly suggest that the low number of diagnosed cases is due to relatively low fraction of cases being identified. Which would mean that the disease is spreading unnoticed.

This was what happened in Italy - until large number of cases started to require hospital care. It is possible that it still won't spread similarly in US. But the current indications do not really give grounds for optimism.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:25 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
So I applaud this.


Did you also applaud when Trump claimed Corona was a Democrat hoax? :sarcastic:


FALSE:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opin ... rus-a-hoax


NOT FALSE:

https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/t ... 0525893963
Trump changes tone after dismissing coronavirus as a Democratic 'hoax'


https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-cal ... a-new-hoax
At a rally in South Carolina on Friday night, President Donald Trump said Democrats are trying to use the coronavirus to damage him—and called that “their new hoax.”


But I can understand why you're easily confused by his jumbled, rambling statements.
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Aesma
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:28 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
I hope this situation serves as a lesson that China's role in the world needs to be diminished unless democratic change can hold into accountable their 'leaders'.

I know its not a matter of "if" but rather "when" would China's communist regime will fall. Chernobyl was the start for the Soviet Union.


Can you say with a straight face that if this virus had appeared in the US instead of China we would be better off today ?


Is that a true question? I know you have your anti-American sympathies and probably have more favorable views of China, like any other globalist out there. So no matter my answer it won't change your mind.


My question is about the USA. Can you imagine Trump reacting like China did, shutting down entire states with nobody allowed to step foot outside ?
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aaron747
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Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:30 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Can't understand how the US actions are down to the "Italian path". This virus originated in China, at the same time we were getting imported cases from China, but at a lower rate than Europe in fact. If there is info you might find that in the US there were cases popping out even before the first case in Italy.

Italy or the EU did not enforce any sort of restrictions when Trump announced theirs... The EU with its open borders got this in an instant because of Italy, not China, not the US.

There are 12K cases in Italy alone, if anything you can say that the US has done a far better job considering we have 10% of that, and our population is over 300 million.


CDC and NIH testimony yesterday indicated we don't know what we have. The numbers are meaningless currently because of the backlog and slow rollout of testing. That's how science works - you don't assume - ever - and don't make projections until a wealth of data is available.


Ok, so we don't trust the numbers, so how can we trust any numbers given by any government because most or all countries also have a continuous backlog of testing. Using speculation to believe things are bad or worse, is as you say: "Unscientific".


There's a difference between a speculative assumption and an educated guess (also known as: hypothesis). This is covered in week one of any bio or chem 101 course. The medical professionals and epidemiologists are making educated guesses when they say we're in for a rough ride and we absolutely are behind in preparation for the coming wave of need in hospitals and care facilities.

Nothing is more speculative than claiming we have 'done a far better job' when that is clearly not the case from a testing point of view. And since testing is the ONLY WAY of attaining confirmation of infection penetration state by state and community by community, it is 100% wrong and irresponsible to make any rosy claims until the situation on the ground is well-understood.

Image

What about Dr. Fauci's information are you not getting clear?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zUccBb3cqI
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Aesma
Posts: 14592
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:30 pm

Millions of tests available in the US, they say ?

https://twitter.com/danielsgoldman/stat ... 9358571520
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1389
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:30 pm

scbriml wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Did you also applaud when Trump claimed Corona was a Democrat hoax? :sarcastic:


FALSE:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opin ... rus-a-hoax


NOT FALSE:

https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/t ... 0525893963
Trump changes tone after dismissing coronavirus as a Democratic 'hoax'


https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-cal ... a-new-hoax
At a rally in South Carolina on Friday night, President Donald Trump said Democrats are trying to use the coronavirus to damage him—and called that “their new hoax.”


But I can understand why you're easily confused by his jumbled, rambling statements.


Yes, good for you to clutter this thread with your trolling for Trump, whilst the world is going through a huge crisis. Is this the best we as humans have? Where is the compassion and the feeling for a difficult situation we ALL are enduring. Yes best to beat on Trump and his supporters, that will certainly help the current situation.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1389
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:33 pm

Aesma wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aesma wrote:

Can you say with a straight face that if this virus had appeared in the US instead of China we would be better off today ?


Is that a true question? I know you have your anti-American sympathies and probably have more favorable views of China, like any other globalist out there. So no matter my answer it won't change your mind.


My question is about the USA. Can you imagine Trump reacting like China did, shutting down entire states with nobody allowed to step foot outside ?


For starters, the "Free press" in the US and the opposition party politicians would have sounded the alarm on action from the start. China has been 'dealing' with this since November, they said dismissed this, and now look at it.
For better or for worse of the freedoms we have in the US, at least the information would have not been censored and doctors persecuted for talking about the virus. Would have given chance to the world to prepare for this.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 15573
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:34 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:


NOT FALSE:

https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/t ... 0525893963
Trump changes tone after dismissing coronavirus as a Democratic 'hoax'


https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-cal ... a-new-hoax
At a rally in South Carolina on Friday night, President Donald Trump said Democrats are trying to use the coronavirus to damage him—and called that “their new hoax.”


But I can understand why you're easily confused by his jumbled, rambling statements.


Yes, good for you to clutter this thread with your trolling for Trump, whilst the world is going through a huge crisis. Is this the best we as humans have? Where is the compassion and the feeling for a difficult situation we ALL are enduring. Yes best to beat on Trump and his supporters, that will certainly help the current situation.


Well it WOULD help if he would resign or step aside so that a fully PROFESSIONAL operation can run the response. Every WH has their crisis moment, and this is his. Not going well.

That is exactly what 43's speechwriter is saying here:

This crisis is not of Trump’s making. What he is responsible for is his failure to respond promptly, and then his perverse and counterproductive choice of how to respond when action could be avoided no longer...

...More people will get sick because of his presidency than if somebody else were in charge. More people will suffer the financial hardship of sickness because of his presidency than if somebody else were in charge. The medical crisis will arrive faster and last longer than if somebody else were in charge. So, too, the economic crisis. More people will lose their jobs than if somebody else were in charge. More businesses will be pushed into bankruptcy than if somebody else were in charge. More savers will lose more savings than if somebody else were in charge. The damage to America’s global leadership will be greater than if somebody else were in charge.


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... is/607867/
Last edited by Aaron747 on Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1389
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:35 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

CDC and NIH testimony yesterday indicated we don't know what we have. The numbers are meaningless currently because of the backlog and slow rollout of testing. That's how science works - you don't assume - ever - and don't make projections until a wealth of data is available.


Ok, so we don't trust the numbers, so how can we trust any numbers given by any government because most or all countries also have a continuous backlog of testing. Using speculation to believe things are bad or worse, is as you say: "Unscientific".


There's a difference between a speculative assumption and an educated guess (also known as: hypothesis). This is covered in week one of any bio or chem 101 course. The medical professionals and epidemiologists are making educated guesses when they say we're in for a rough ride and we absolutely are behind in preparation for the coming wave of need in hospitals and care facilities.

Nothing is more speculative than claiming we have 'done a far better job' when that is clearly not the case from a testing point of view. And since testing is the ONLY WAY of attaining confirmation of infection penetration state by state and community by community, it is 100% wrong and irresponsible to make any rosy claims until the situation on the ground is well-understood.

Image

What about Dr. Fauci's information are you not getting clear?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zUccBb3cqI

You still behave like a partisan, when this is actually going to affect us all, conservatives, liberals, democrats, republicans independents.

Your point is to say we are worse prepared to deal with this, and handling it worse than the globalist liberals in Europe.

If you look at this report you will see that the US is the best prepared for this, no wonder we still have very low numbers despite what ever the partisans want to say.

https://www.ghsindex.org/
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 15573
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:39 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Ok, so we don't trust the numbers, so how can we trust any numbers given by any government because most or all countries also have a continuous backlog of testing. Using speculation to believe things are bad or worse, is as you say: "Unscientific".


There's a difference between a speculative assumption and an educated guess (also known as: hypothesis). This is covered in week one of any bio or chem 101 course. The medical professionals and epidemiologists are making educated guesses when they say we're in for a rough ride and we absolutely are behind in preparation for the coming wave of need in hospitals and care facilities.

Nothing is more speculative than claiming we have 'done a far better job' when that is clearly not the case from a testing point of view. And since testing is the ONLY WAY of attaining confirmation of infection penetration state by state and community by community, it is 100% wrong and irresponsible to make any rosy claims until the situation on the ground is well-understood.

Image

What about Dr. Fauci's information are you not getting clear?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zUccBb3cqI

You still behave like a partisan, when this is actually going to affect us all, conservatives, liberals, democrats, republicans independents.

Your point is to say we are worse prepared to deal with this, and handling it worse than the globalist liberals in Europe.

If you look at this report you will see that the US is the best prepared for this, no wonder we still have very low numbers despite what ever the partisans want to say.

https://www.ghsindex.org/


Your response is partisan, not mine - everything in my post was based on science. And you completely ignored the chart above - I assure you the Financial Times is NOT a partisan rag. I ask again - WHAT about the testimony of the medical professionals are you not understanding?
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1389
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:44 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

There's a difference between a speculative assumption and an educated guess (also known as: hypothesis). This is covered in week one of any bio or chem 101 course. The medical professionals and epidemiologists are making educated guesses when they say we're in for a rough ride and we absolutely are behind in preparation for the coming wave of need in hospitals and care facilities.

Nothing is more speculative than claiming we have 'done a far better job' when that is clearly not the case from a testing point of view. And since testing is the ONLY WAY of attaining confirmation of infection penetration state by state and community by community, it is 100% wrong and irresponsible to make any rosy claims until the situation on the ground is well-understood.

Image

What about Dr. Fauci's information are you not getting clear?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zUccBb3cqI

You still behave like a partisan, when this is actually going to affect us all, conservatives, liberals, democrats, republicans independents.

Your point is to say we are worse prepared to deal with this, and handling it worse than the globalist liberals in Europe.

If you look at this report you will see that the US is the best prepared for this, no wonder we still have very low numbers despite what ever the partisans want to say.

https://www.ghsindex.org/


Your response is partisan, not mine - everything in my post was based on science. And you completely ignored the chart above - I assure you the Financial Times is NOT a partisan rag. I ask again - WHAT about the testimony of the medical professionals are you not understanding?


So lets say you are right, you mean to say the US has currently more cases than Europe?

Europe or the very least Italy who doesn't have Trump as president have been catastrophic in handling this. It seems to me something good the administration or the local governments have done to have lower cases (with or without backlog of tests) than Europe.

So if we go to that standard, every head of government in Europe should resign too, for their abject failure to deal with this 'better'.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:53 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
You still behave like a partisan, when this is actually going to affect us all, conservatives, liberals, democrats, republicans independents.

Your point is to say we are worse prepared to deal with this, and handling it worse than the globalist liberals in Europe.

If you look at this report you will see that the US is the best prepared for this, no wonder we still have very low numbers despite what ever the partisans want to say.

https://www.ghsindex.org/


Your response is partisan, not mine - everything in my post was based on science. And you completely ignored the chart above - I assure you the Financial Times is NOT a partisan rag. I ask again - WHAT about the testimony of the medical professionals are you not understanding?


So lets say you are right, you mean to say the US has currently more cases than Europe?

Europe or the very least Italy who doesn't have Trump as president have been catastrophic in handling this. It seems to me something good the administration or the local governments have done to have lower cases (with or without backlog of tests) than Europe.

So if we go to that standard, every head of government in Europe should resign too, for their abject failure to deal with this 'better'.


You are completely avoiding nuance and comparing apples to watermelons - this is the problem with having so many people uneducated about scientific and critical thinking.

Comparing the RESPONSE of different governments within their own national challenges to a public health problem is NOT the same as comparing the rate and penetration of infection. There are numerous variables on both sides of that comparison.

Generally speaking, the US has excellent facilities and public health professionals. The executive branch has the ability to suspend regulatory limits that impair response time and deployment, especially via emergency declaration. There are a lot of other tools available to prepare for and fight a pandemic. The know-how has been ours for years - developing countries send their MPH students to the US to learn these things. Especially for those reasons, it makes leadership failure more tragic on our own turf - especially for the PR reasons we have seen from this WH so far. It is mind-boggling one can be so blind not to see that.

The Italians were not ready for what was coming - hospitals in Lombardy are completely overwhelmed with elderly patients and they are doing death triage now. Their medical staff are overworked, burned out, and some have had to self-isolate. Based on the statements from CDC and NIH it is not unreasonable to expect to see similar things in some US communities in the coming weeks. We have a much larger elderly and at-risk population than Italy.

"Reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 12522
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:59 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Based on the statements from CDC and NIH it is not unreasonable to expect to see similar things in some US communities in the coming weeks.


According to this graphic, the US is 16 days behind, Italy.

Image
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AirWorthy99
Posts: 1389
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:59 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Your response is partisan, not mine - everything in my post was based on science. And you completely ignored the chart above - I assure you the Financial Times is NOT a partisan rag. I ask again - WHAT about the testimony of the medical professionals are you not understanding?


So lets say you are right, you mean to say the US has currently more cases than Europe?

Europe or the very least Italy who doesn't have Trump as president have been catastrophic in handling this. It seems to me something good the administration or the local governments have done to have lower cases (with or without backlog of tests) than Europe.

So if we go to that standard, every head of government in Europe should resign too, for their abject failure to deal with this 'better'.


You are completely avoiding nuance and comparing apples to watermelons - this is the problem with having so many people uneducated about scientific and critical thinking.

Comparing the RESPONSE of different governments within their own national challenges to a public health problem is NOT the same as comparing the rate and penetration of infection. There are numerous variables on both sides of that comparison.

Generally speaking, the US has excellent facilities and public health professionals. The executive branch has the ability to suspend regulatory limits that impair response time and deployment, especially via emergency declaration. There are a lot of other tools available to prepare for and fight a pandemic. The know-how has been ours for years - developing countries send their MPH students to the US to learn these things. Especially for those reasons, it makes leadership failure more tragic on our own turf - especially for the PR reasons we have seen from this WH so far. It is mind-boggling one can be so blind not to see that.

The Italians were not ready for what was coming - hospitals in Lombardy are completely overwhelmed with elderly patients and they are doing death triage now. Their medical staff are overworked, burned out, and some have had to self-isolate. Based on the statements from CDC and NIH it is not unreasonable to expect to see similar things in some US communities in the coming weeks.

"Reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman


Ok you right, the initial response in the US has been to be fair a bit 'confusing'. The administration has messed up the PR from the beginning.

But my point is that these travel bans do work. If not look at the UK. Look how many cases they report, and then look at mainland Europe. Open borders Europe. Thankfully for the Brits they have borders and this has limited their impact severely, or at the very least slowed down the rate of infections compared to other nations in mainland Europe.

It will be very hard for you or any other Trump hater to actually admit that the Chinese ban and the most recent one is actually a good way to slow down the process. And it has helped. But as you say more has to be done, and I don't think opportunistically calling for Trump's resignation will help at all, only than make some people happy.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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lugie
Posts: 924
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:59 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
You still behave like a partisan, when this is actually going to affect us all, conservatives, liberals, democrats, republicans independents.

Your point is to say we are worse prepared to deal with this, and handling it worse than the globalist liberals in Europe.

If you look at this report you will see that the US is the best prepared for this, no wonder we still have very low numbers despite what ever the partisans want to say.

https://www.ghsindex.org/


Your response is partisan, not mine - everything in my post was based on science. And you completely ignored the chart above - I assure you the Financial Times is NOT a partisan rag. I ask again - WHAT about the testimony of the medical professionals are you not understanding?


So lets say you are right, you mean to say the US has currently more cases than Europe?

Europe or the very least Italy who doesn't have Trump as president have been catastrophic in handling this. It seems to me something good the administration or the local governments have done to have lower cases (with or without backlog of tests) than Europe.

So if we go to that standard, every head of government in Europe should resign too, for their abject failure to deal with this 'better'.



This is utter BS - at least, as those scientific numbers that are not up for debate show, European leaders have realized that this epidemic can't be solved by not talking about it, which seems to be the current strategy of the Trump administration.

France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, and most of all, South Korea - they all test, and massively so. The US has administered how many? 1,500 tests overall???
Ridiculous - That's how much France does every 1.5 days, that's half of what Germany tests per a million a people

The US government has failed horribly at getting a grip on the community spread which is occurring, as we speak, in dozens of states. The only concern for them was the optics - Trump tried to downplay the crisis for partisan reasons.
And now, the only pathetic fix he implements is a travel ban, waaaaay too late - the virus has established itself.
But of course, at least border closures fit his disgusting nativist, nationalist ideology.


Not all European governments are without fault, of course - Something must have gone wildly off the rails in Italy for example - they test slightly more than Germany but have almost 10 times as many confirmed cases and over 100 times more deaths but at least they. are. testing.
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:14 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

So lets say you are right, you mean to say the US has currently more cases than Europe?

Europe or the very least Italy who doesn't have Trump as president have been catastrophic in handling this. It seems to me something good the administration or the local governments have done to have lower cases (with or without backlog of tests) than Europe.

So if we go to that standard, every head of government in Europe should resign too, for their abject failure to deal with this 'better'.


You are completely avoiding nuance and comparing apples to watermelons - this is the problem with having so many people uneducated about scientific and critical thinking.

Comparing the RESPONSE of different governments within their own national challenges to a public health problem is NOT the same as comparing the rate and penetration of infection. There are numerous variables on both sides of that comparison.

Generally speaking, the US has excellent facilities and public health professionals. The executive branch has the ability to suspend regulatory limits that impair response time and deployment, especially via emergency declaration. There are a lot of other tools available to prepare for and fight a pandemic. The know-how has been ours for years - developing countries send their MPH students to the US to learn these things. Especially for those reasons, it makes leadership failure more tragic on our own turf - especially for the PR reasons we have seen from this WH so far. It is mind-boggling one can be so blind not to see that.

The Italians were not ready for what was coming - hospitals in Lombardy are completely overwhelmed with elderly patients and they are doing death triage now. Their medical staff are overworked, burned out, and some have had to self-isolate. Based on the statements from CDC and NIH it is not unreasonable to expect to see similar things in some US communities in the coming weeks.

"Reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman


Ok you right, the initial response in the US has been to be fair a bit 'confusing'. The administration has messed up the PR from the beginning.

But my point is that these travel bans do work. If not look at the UK. Look how many cases they report, and then look at mainland Europe. Open borders Europe. Thankfully for the Brits they have borders and this has limited their impact severely, or at the very least slowed down the rate of infections compared to other nations in mainland Europe.

It will be very hard for you or any other Trump hater to actually admit that the Chinese ban and the most recent one is actually a good way to slow down the process. And it has helped. But as you say more has to be done, and I don't think opportunistically calling for Trump's resignation will help at all, only than make some people happy.


Travel bans are effective in initial containment efforts but are just for show once community spread has taken hold. Dr. Fauci testified yesterday that they no longer have tracking of index cases - that is a significant challenge if you understand what it means.

As CDC's Dr. Redfield testified yesterday, everything becomes more difficult once you transition from arithmetic case increase to logarithmic case increase. You can see that clearly here:

Image

The much-criticized draconian measures in China inflicted pain there but the medical results are clear, they made significant progress arresting spread:

Image

You continue to make partisan comments about 'open borders Europe' and 'Trump hate' and rah rah rah, but none of that is relevant to management of a public health challenge. Successful management and mitigation come down to letting the experts run the show and decisionmaking based ONLY on science. What people are pissed off about is the wanton unprofessionalism of the WH as they spent two months playing cover-my-ass when they SHOULD have been taking advantage of all the great resources this country has. PR is only the beginning of what has been messed up. They could have spoken honestly and aggressively about preparations, social distancing for the elderly, cessation of cruises and nonessential travel for seniors, etc. That's what the experts wanted, anyway. Oh well.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
marcelh
Posts: 1498
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:21 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
There are 12K cases in Italy alone, if anything you can say that the US has done a far better job considering we have 10% of that, and our population is over 300 million.


A far better job.... Ingorance is bliss...



Image
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1389
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:22 pm

lugie wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Your response is partisan, not mine - everything in my post was based on science. And you completely ignored the chart above - I assure you the Financial Times is NOT a partisan rag. I ask again - WHAT about the testimony of the medical professionals are you not understanding?


So lets say you are right, you mean to say the US has currently more cases than Europe?

Europe or the very least Italy who doesn't have Trump as president have been catastrophic in handling this. It seems to me something good the administration or the local governments have done to have lower cases (with or without backlog of tests) than Europe.

So if we go to that standard, every head of government in Europe should resign too, for their abject failure to deal with this 'better'.



This is utter BS - at least, as those scientific numbers that are not up for debate show, European leaders have realized that this epidemic can't be solved by not talking about it, which seems to be the current strategy of the Trump administration.

France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, and most of all, South Korea - they all test, and massively so. The US has administered how many? 1,500 tests overall???
Ridiculous - That's how much France does every 1.5 days, that's half of what Germany tests per a million a people

The US government has failed horribly at getting a grip on the community spread which is occurring, as we speak, in dozens of states. The only concern for them was the optics - Trump tried to downplay the crisis for partisan reasons.
And now, the only pathetic fix he implements is a travel ban, waaaaay too late - the virus has established itself.
But of course, at least border closures fit his disgusting nativist, nationalist ideology.


Not all European governments are without fault, of course - Something must have gone wildly off the rails in Italy for example - they test slightly more than Germany but have almost 10 times as many confirmed cases and over 100 times more deaths but at least they. are. testing.


There have been more than 11,000 testings till the 11th of March in the US. On the data there were a couple of days that they tested more than 1,000 cases.

Image

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html
Last edited by AirWorthy99 on Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1389
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:23 pm

marcelh wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
There are 12K cases in Italy alone, if anything you can say that the US has done a far better job considering we have 10% of that, and our population is over 300 million.


A far better job.... Ingorance is bliss...



Image



Again even the 'data' you mentioned says the data is incomplete:

most recent testing statistic from the CDC puts it north of 11,000

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:25 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

You are completely avoiding nuance and comparing apples to watermelons - this is the problem with having so many people uneducated about scientific and critical thinking.

Comparing the RESPONSE of different governments within their own national challenges to a public health problem is NOT the same as comparing the rate and penetration of infection. There are numerous variables on both sides of that comparison.

Generally speaking, the US has excellent facilities and public health professionals. The executive branch has the ability to suspend regulatory limits that impair response time and deployment, especially via emergency declaration. There are a lot of other tools available to prepare for and fight a pandemic. The know-how has been ours for years - developing countries send their MPH students to the US to learn these things. Especially for those reasons, it makes leadership failure more tragic on our own turf - especially for the PR reasons we have seen from this WH so far. It is mind-boggling one can be so blind not to see that.

The Italians were not ready for what was coming - hospitals in Lombardy are completely overwhelmed with elderly patients and they are doing death triage now. Their medical staff are overworked, burned out, and some have had to self-isolate. Based on the statements from CDC and NIH it is not unreasonable to expect to see similar things in some US communities in the coming weeks.

"Reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman


Ok you right, the initial response in the US has been to be fair a bit 'confusing'. The administration has messed up the PR from the beginning.

But my point is that these travel bans do work. If not look at the UK. Look how many cases they report, and then look at mainland Europe. Open borders Europe. Thankfully for the Brits they have borders and this has limited their impact severely, or at the very least slowed down the rate of infections compared to other nations in mainland Europe.

It will be very hard for you or any other Trump hater to actually admit that the Chinese ban and the most recent one is actually a good way to slow down the process. And it has helped. But as you say more has to be done, and I don't think opportunistically calling for Trump's resignation will help at all, only than make some people happy.


Travel bans are effective in initial containment efforts but are just for show once community spread has taken hold. Dr. Fauci testified yesterday that they no longer have tracking of index cases - that is a significant challenge if you understand what it means.

As CDC's Dr. Redfield testified yesterday, everything becomes more difficult once you transition from arithmetic case increase to logarithmic case increase. You can see that clearly here:

Image

The much-criticized draconian measures in China inflicted pain there but the medical results are clear, they made significant progress arresting spread:

Image

You continue to make partisan comments about 'open borders Europe' and 'Trump hate' and rah rah rah, but none of that is relevant to management of a public health challenge. Successful management and mitigation come down to letting the experts run the show and decisionmaking based ONLY on science. What people are pissed off about is the wanton unprofessionalism of the WH as they spent two months playing cover-my-ass when they SHOULD have been taking advantage of all the great resources this country has. PR is only the beginning of what has been messed up. They could have spoken honestly and aggressively about preparations, social distancing for the elderly, cessation of cruises and nonessential travel for seniors, etc. That's what the experts wanted, anyway. Oh well.


Community spread has been happening in only certain cities in the US for now. Mostly California, Washington and New York. But here in Florida where I am at, the amount of that is still lower than the imported cases.

And as for my 'partisan' comments, you come here saying Trump should resign, that's a partisan opinion.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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lugie
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:25 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:

There have been more than 11,000 testings till the 11th of March in the US. On the data there were a couple of days that they tested more than 1,000 cases.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html


That's a lot better than 1,500 and I apologize for using numbers that aren't up-to-date.
However, my point stands:

If the US had tested at Germany levels (750 per 1 million), they would be at around 245,000 tests by now - which they quite clearly aren't.

If they had tested at South Korea levels (> 4,000 per 1 million), which should be the real goal for any country to strive for, they would have tested 1.32 million people so far - there's no denying that y'all are behind the curve, and dangerously far at that.

Again, I'm not saying that Europeans have done anything right, even the country with the most testing tests at about 25% of the South Korean rates but at least we have acknowledged that it's spreading within our societies and are taking steps to a) measure the true extent of that spread, b) mitigate it best as we can.

The US will face a rude awakening when more widespread testing is finally rolled out, because the "blame the foreigners" tactic doesn't do jack shit to stop community spread within US states. It just so happens to be the best (and only) skill this administration possesses.

And don't get me wrong, I'm not rooting for an escalation in the US just to dunk on their tactics. I have a bunch of friends there, having lived there until last summer, my girlfriend's family lives there and she's going to return there soon because her program here was canceled.
I'm hoping for the best, but with this incompetent dumpster fire of an administration at the helm, y'all will have to brace for the very very worst.
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gatibosgru
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:27 pm

seahawk wrote:
KFTG wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Good to see Trump in full control of the situation.

Typical from you. Tell me, WHY CAN I FLY TO SOUTH KOREA *RIGHT NOW* but soon I can't fly to Belgium? What Trump said in the teleprompter was INCORRECT. I SWEAR TO GOD, he could defecate live on national TV and you people would congratulate him for wiping.
Pathetic!


Simply because Trump knows much more about the Virus than any other political leader. Even the scientists ask him for advice.


Lord if this isn't irony please take me now :weeping:
@DadCelo
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1389
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:32 pm

lugie wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

There have been more than 11,000 testings till the 11th of March in the US. On the data there were a couple of days that they tested more than 1,000 cases.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html


That's a lot better than 1,500 and I apologize for using numbers that aren't up-to-date.
However, my point stands:

If the US had tested at Germany levels (750 per 1 million), they would be at around 245,000 tests by now - which they quite clearly aren't.

If they had tested at South Korea levels (> 4,000 per 1 million), which should be the real goal for any country to strive for, they would have tested 1.32 million people so far - there's no denying that y'all are behind the curve, and dangerously far at that.

Again, I'm not saying that Europeans have done anything right, even the country with the most testing tests at about 25% of the South Korean rates but at least we have acknowledged that it's spreading within our societies and are taking steps to a) measure the true extent of that spread, b) mitigate it best as we can.

The US will face a rude awakening when more widespread testing is finally rolled out, because the "blame the foreigners" tactic doesn't do jack shit to stop community spread within US states. It just so happens to be the best (and only) skill this administration possesses.

And don't get me wrong, I'm not rooting for an escalation in the US just to dunk on their tactics. I have a bunch of friends there, having lived there until last summer, my girlfriend's family lives there and she's going to return there soon because her program here was canceled.
I'm hoping for the best, but with this incompetent dumpster fire of an administration at the helm, y'all will have to brace for the very very worst.


I understand, most of us here want more cases and more people infected in the US, more deaths and such to say that the ban makes no sense.

Its not happening, clearly in Europe things are getting to China (January) levels.

Funny how in this forum, and this thread from the beginning shows, people are more happy to trash the US and their statistics yet kept mum with China's handling of statistics from the beginning.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:36 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Ok you right, the initial response in the US has been to be fair a bit 'confusing'. The administration has messed up the PR from the beginning.

But my point is that these travel bans do work. If not look at the UK. Look how many cases they report, and then look at mainland Europe. Open borders Europe. Thankfully for the Brits they have borders and this has limited their impact severely, or at the very least slowed down the rate of infections compared to other nations in mainland Europe.

It will be very hard for you or any other Trump hater to actually admit that the Chinese ban and the most recent one is actually a good way to slow down the process. And it has helped. But as you say more has to be done, and I don't think opportunistically calling for Trump's resignation will help at all, only than make some people happy.


Travel bans are effective in initial containment efforts but are just for show once community spread has taken hold. Dr. Fauci testified yesterday that they no longer have tracking of index cases - that is a significant challenge if you understand what it means.

As CDC's Dr. Redfield testified yesterday, everything becomes more difficult once you transition from arithmetic case increase to logarithmic case increase. You can see that clearly here:

Image

The much-criticized draconian measures in China inflicted pain there but the medical results are clear, they made significant progress arresting spread:

Image

You continue to make partisan comments about 'open borders Europe' and 'Trump hate' and rah rah rah, but none of that is relevant to management of a public health challenge. Successful management and mitigation come down to letting the experts run the show and decisionmaking based ONLY on science. What people are pissed off about is the wanton unprofessionalism of the WH as they spent two months playing cover-my-ass when they SHOULD have been taking advantage of all the great resources this country has. PR is only the beginning of what has been messed up. They could have spoken honestly and aggressively about preparations, social distancing for the elderly, cessation of cruises and nonessential travel for seniors, etc. That's what the experts wanted, anyway. Oh well.


Community spread has been happening in only certain cities in the US for now. Mostly California, Washington and New York. But here in Florida where I am at, the amount of that is still lower than the imported cases.

And as for my 'partisan' comments, you come here saying Trump should resign, that's a partisan opinion.


It is not remotely partisan - it is being said on both sides of the aisle now. High-level professional people who have integrity resign when they've fucked up an important job to make room for someone else to get it done better. Period.

Domestic travel is still open and available and social distancing is improving only thanks to corporate actions, not the government.

As of this morning's most recent data, I would not be nearly as optimistic as you:

HOW VIRUS WAS CONTRACTED CASES
Cluster connected to a community in New Rochelle, N.Y. 113
Personal contact in U.S. 81
Nursing facility in Kirkland, Wash. 57
Travel overseas 46
Diamond Princess cruise ship 43
Travel in Egypt 40
Travel in Italy 32
Travel within the U.S. 30
Business conference in Boston 29
Grand Princess cruise in February 21
Grand Princess cruise in March 21
Travel in China 15
Connected to Episcopal church in Washington, D.C. 4
Hospital in Vacaville, Calif. 3
Connected to Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. 3
Nursing facility in Stanwood, Wash. 3
Travel in Iran 2
Travel in South Korea 1
Unknown 736

You'll note 'unknown' is the largest category by far. That's why Dr. Fauci stated high concern over the lack of index cases. This is EXACTLY why we can't have idiots making decisions where the science should be the sole factor.

But most U.S. patients — and more every day — have now been diagnosed without any history of overseas travel, signaling that the illness was circulating within the United States and that people were being exposed in schools, offices and medical facilities.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3609
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:48 pm

https://www.rappler.com/nation/254101-m ... s-outbreak

Metro Manila will be lockdown beginning March 15th.

There's currently no major outbreak in Philippines, but the number of cases had been steadily increasing. Also keep in mind Philippines was one of the early country that imposed entry restrictions on Chinese nationals.
 
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Aesma
Posts: 14592
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:50 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

NOT FALSE:

https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/t ... 0525893963


https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-cal ... a-new-hoax


But I can understand why you're easily confused by his jumbled, rambling statements.


Yes, good for you to clutter this thread with your trolling for Trump, whilst the world is going through a huge crisis. Is this the best we as humans have? Where is the compassion and the feeling for a difficult situation we ALL are enduring. Yes best to beat on Trump and his supporters, that will certainly help the current situation.


Well it WOULD help if he would resign or step aside so that a fully PROFESSIONAL operation can run the response. Every WH has their crisis moment, and this is his. Not going well.

That is exactly what 43's speechwriter is saying here:

This crisis is not of Trump’s making. What he is responsible for is his failure to respond promptly, and then his perverse and counterproductive choice of how to respond when action could be avoided no longer...

...More people will get sick because of his presidency than if somebody else were in charge. More people will suffer the financial hardship of sickness because of his presidency than if somebody else were in charge. The medical crisis will arrive faster and last longer than if somebody else were in charge. So, too, the economic crisis. More people will lose their jobs than if somebody else were in charge. More businesses will be pushed into bankruptcy than if somebody else were in charge. More savers will lose more savings than if somebody else were in charge. The damage to America’s global leadership will be greater than if somebody else were in charge.


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... is/607867/


The same can be said about W, though. Letting Lehman fail, blindly following ideologues, cost us all greatly.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1389
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:53 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Travel bans are effective in initial containment efforts but are just for show once community spread has taken hold. Dr. Fauci testified yesterday that they no longer have tracking of index cases - that is a significant challenge if you understand what it means.

As CDC's Dr. Redfield testified yesterday, everything becomes more difficult once you transition from arithmetic case increase to logarithmic case increase. You can see that clearly here:

Image

The much-criticized draconian measures in China inflicted pain there but the medical results are clear, they made significant progress arresting spread:

Image

You continue to make partisan comments about 'open borders Europe' and 'Trump hate' and rah rah rah, but none of that is relevant to management of a public health challenge. Successful management and mitigation come down to letting the experts run the show and decisionmaking based ONLY on science. What people are pissed off about is the wanton unprofessionalism of the WH as they spent two months playing cover-my-ass when they SHOULD have been taking advantage of all the great resources this country has. PR is only the beginning of what has been messed up. They could have spoken honestly and aggressively about preparations, social distancing for the elderly, cessation of cruises and nonessential travel for seniors, etc. That's what the experts wanted, anyway. Oh well.


Community spread has been happening in only certain cities in the US for now. Mostly California, Washington and New York. But here in Florida where I am at, the amount of that is still lower than the imported cases.

And as for my 'partisan' comments, you come here saying Trump should resign, that's a partisan opinion.


It is not remotely partisan - it is being said on both sides of the aisle now. High-level professional people who have integrity resign when they've fucked up an important job to make room for someone else to get it done better. Period.

Domestic travel is still open and available and social distancing is improving only thanks to corporate actions, not the government.

As of this morning's most recent data, I would not be nearly as optimistic as you:

HOW VIRUS WAS CONTRACTED CASES
Cluster connected to a community in New Rochelle, N.Y. 113
Personal contact in U.S. 81
Nursing facility in Kirkland, Wash. 57
Travel overseas 46
Diamond Princess cruise ship 43
Travel in Egypt 40
Travel in Italy 32
Travel within the U.S. 30
Business conference in Boston 29
Grand Princess cruise in February 21
Grand Princess cruise in March 21
Travel in China 15
Connected to Episcopal church in Washington, D.C. 4
Hospital in Vacaville, Calif. 3
Connected to Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. 3
Nursing facility in Stanwood, Wash. 3
Travel in Iran 2
Travel in South Korea 1
Unknown 736

You'll note 'unknown' is the largest category by far. That's why Dr. Fauci stated high concern over the lack of index cases. This is EXACTLY why we can't have idiots making decisions where the science should be the sole factor.

But most U.S. patients — and more every day — have now been diagnosed without any history of overseas travel, signaling that the illness was circulating within the United States and that people were being exposed in schools, offices and medical facilities.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html


Haven't said the contrary, here in Florida 33% of the confirmed cases are due to a 'nile river' cruise in Egypt.

The most recent case in Florida and the first in Miami-Dade is a man who recently came from Iran. There was a couple of cases in the Tampa-Bay area which were 'community spread', but most of the others are imported.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
User avatar
CitizenJustin
Posts: 868
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2017 10:12 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:58 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

NOT FALSE:

https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/t ... 0525893963


https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-cal ... a-new-hoax


But I can understand why you're easily confused by his jumbled, rambling statements.


Yes, good for you to clutter this thread with your trolling for Trump, whilst the world is going through a huge crisis. Is this the best we as humans have? Where is the compassion and the feeling for a difficult situation we ALL are enduring. Yes best to beat on Trump and his supporters, that will certainly help the current situation.


Well it WOULD help if he would resign or step aside so that a fully PROFESSIONAL operation can run the response. Every WH has their crisis moment, and this is his. Not going well.

That is exactly what 43's speechwriter is saying here:

This crisis is not of Trump’s making. What he is responsible for is his failure to respond promptly, and then his perverse and counterproductive choice of how to respond when action could be avoided no longer...

...More people will get sick because of his presidency than if somebody else were in charge. More people will suffer the financial hardship of sickness because of his presidency than if somebody else were in charge. The medical crisis will arrive faster and last longer than if somebody else were in charge. So, too, the economic crisis. More people will lose their jobs than if somebody else were in charge. More businesses will be pushed into bankruptcy than if somebody else were in charge. More savers will lose more savings than if somebody else were in charge. The damage to America’s global leadership will be greater than if somebody else were in charge.


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... is/607867/



Of course this is all made worse by right wing radio. For example, Rush Limbaugh keeps insisting that this is no big deal and will all “blow over” in a couple weeks. His listeners believe everything he says. The lies and misinformation he spouts could potentially increase the spread of the virus. He’s truly a disgusting human being.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2795
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:38 pm

What this current crisis also has shown is that we are in dire need of something like Universal Healthcare.
Now, people refuse to get tested because they are afraid of the huge medical bills they might receive. And even if people would stay home, they might not get paid and will therefore NOT stay home.
 
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2699
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:55 pm

casinterest wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
casinterest wrote:

We already had it in the US from China. Closing down to Europe could have happened weeks ago if this wasn't just a nothing as Trump claimed.


The situation in Europe is getting exponentially worse by the minute, and is about the same scale that China was when the travel ban to China was implemented.


You do not understand math very well do you?
Viruses spread at exponential rates.


There's no need to be an a**hole. Don't always assume everyone you're talking to are dumber than yourself. Take a chill pill.
 
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Kiwirob
Posts: 13554
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:00 pm

Well that's crap the Norwegian govt has just placed anyone who has arrived into Norway from abroad after the 27th of February in mandatory quarantine for 14 days. I got back from Russia last Friday, now I'm stuck at home until next Friday, I had to cancel my business trip to the UK next week. To make matters worse the govt closed all the schools for the next two weeks, now have my 3 kids at home.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:04 pm

So at 14:00 CET Norway Government had a press conference. And the nation is being shut down. Schools, sports, absolutely everything except core health services and government services. Grocery shops and pharmacies are the only businesses allowed to remain open. Other businesses may continue operation if they can work from home. Not in the office.

I'm not trying to cause panic, but to inform of which items will be disappearing first in your home nation when the quarantine begins.

From 14:00 to 16:00 CET (2 hours time) today the following items were sold out from both online and physical shops:

- Paracetamol and Ibuprofen
- Destillation fluids
- Latex gloves
- Toilet paper
- Matches
- Antibac (disinfection soap)
- Masks (were already sold out a month ago)

The following items are in short supply or being sold out right now:

- Batteries and flashlights
- Stearin candles

The grocery shops say they have more of most of these items in remote storage, but it takes time to refill the shelves. And authorities are strongly advising against this hamster-like behavior. Because there's no reason, and it's selfish, and creating a problem that wasn't necessary in the first place.

It's chaos out there. People are stocking up their carts to the brim. There are more people in the shops now than any day before Christmas.

It's like watching a disaster movie unfolding in front of you, except this time it's for real.
Last edited by JetBuddy on Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 13797
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:10 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
Well that's crap the Norwegian govt has just placed anyone who has arrived into Norway from abroad after the 27th of February in mandatory quarantine for 14 days. I got back from Russia last Friday, now I'm stuck at home until next Friday, I had to cancel my business trip to the UK next week. To make matters worse the govt closed all the schools for the next two weeks, now have my 3 kids at home.

Well, look at the positives. You can get some house work done.

Although it would suck to be quarantined at home, I have a feeling we are all moving towards something similar.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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Kiwirob
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:14 pm

JetBuddy wrote:

It's chaos out there. People are stocking up their carts to the brim. There are more people in the shops now than any day before Christmas.

It's like watching a disaster movie unfolding in front of you, except this time it's for real.


Before I found out this afternoon that I was someone that needed to be quarantined I went into Molde, the town centre was dead, nobody around, I went in Coop Mega, almost nobody there either. Bought toilet paper, milk and bread, the shelves were well stocked.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:14 pm

Italy numbers updated:

New Cases: 2,651 New deaths: 189 New recoveries: 213

Total Cases: 15,113 Total deaths: 1,016 Total recoveries: 1,258


What's worrying about the Italy situation is that the deaths and recovered numbers are so close. I don't see that same trend other places.
 
bgm
Posts: 2535
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:14 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Community spread has been happening in only certain cities in the US for now. Mostly California, Washington and New York. But here in Florida where I am at, the amount of that is still lower than the imported cases.

And as for my 'partisan' comments, you come here saying Trump should resign, that's a partisan opinion.


It is not remotely partisan - it is being said on both sides of the aisle now. High-level professional people who have integrity resign when they've fucked up an important job to make room for someone else to get it done better. Period.

Domestic travel is still open and available and social distancing is improving only thanks to corporate actions, not the government.

As of this morning's most recent data, I would not be nearly as optimistic as you:

HOW VIRUS WAS CONTRACTED CASES
Cluster connected to a community in New Rochelle, N.Y. 113
Personal contact in U.S. 81
Nursing facility in Kirkland, Wash. 57
Travel overseas 46
Diamond Princess cruise ship 43
Travel in Egypt 40
Travel in Italy 32
Travel within the U.S. 30
Business conference in Boston 29
Grand Princess cruise in February 21
Grand Princess cruise in March 21
Travel in China 15
Connected to Episcopal church in Washington, D.C. 4
Hospital in Vacaville, Calif. 3
Connected to Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. 3
Nursing facility in Stanwood, Wash. 3
Travel in Iran 2
Travel in South Korea 1
Unknown 736

You'll note 'unknown' is the largest category by far. That's why Dr. Fauci stated high concern over the lack of index cases. This is EXACTLY why we can't have idiots making decisions where the science should be the sole factor.

But most U.S. patients — and more every day — have now been diagnosed without any history of overseas travel, signaling that the illness was circulating within the United States and that people were being exposed in schools, offices and medical facilities.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html


Haven't said the contrary, here in Florida 33% of the confirmed cases are due to a 'nile river' cruise in Egypt.

The most recent case in Florida and the first in Miami-Dade is a man who recently came from Iran. There was a couple of cases in the Tampa-Bay area which were 'community spread', but most of the others are imported.



At this point it doesn't matter where the virus came from. The fact of the matter is it's in the US, it's highly contagious, and it's spreading like wildfire.

Tested cases ≠ true number of cases

You'll see in the coming days/weeks. Look at what's happening in Europe. Welcome to your near future, hope you're prepared.
 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2699
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:15 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:

It's chaos out there. People are stocking up their carts to the brim. There are more people in the shops now than any day before Christmas.

It's like watching a disaster movie unfolding in front of you, except this time it's for real.


Before I found out this afternoon that I was someone that needed to be quarantined I went into Molde, the town centre was dead, nobody around, I went in Coop Mega, almost nobody there either. Bought toilet paper, milk and bread, the shelves were well stocked.


Yes that was the situation where I am too (near OSL), right up until around 15:00. Then it was complete panic.
 
kalvado
Posts: 3205
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:18 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Well it WOULD help if he would resign or step aside so that a fully PROFESSIONAL operation can run the response.

Professional in WHAT?
Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi Jinping are busy at their other jobs. No other qualified applicant available.
Enforcing quarantine is VERY difficult without significant cooperation OR major use of force - more so with 2nd ammendment in place. Three questions people ask when quarantine is mentioned - would they be able to physically enforce that, is that legal per constitution to begin with, and what would be consequences for evading those measures (hint: none).
There is little else what can be done; and with 80% population living paycheck to paycheck consequences of stay at home is worse than violating those orders.

Biggest failure so far is refusing to administer enough tests, but that is bureaucratic thing first. Given how much those venerable impotent bureaucracies are defended (hint: think EPA cuts ) there is alot of blame to go back for decades.
 
A101
Posts: 2464
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:19 pm

bgm wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

It is not remotely partisan - it is being said on both sides of the aisle now. High-level professional people who have integrity resign when they've fucked up an important job to make room for someone else to get it done better. Period.

Domestic travel is still open and available and social distancing is improving only thanks to corporate actions, not the government.

As of this morning's most recent data, I would not be nearly as optimistic as you:

HOW VIRUS WAS CONTRACTED CASES
Cluster connected to a community in New Rochelle, N.Y. 113
Personal contact in U.S. 81
Nursing facility in Kirkland, Wash. 57
Travel overseas 46
Diamond Princess cruise ship 43
Travel in Egypt 40
Travel in Italy 32
Travel within the U.S. 30
Business conference in Boston 29
Grand Princess cruise in February 21
Grand Princess cruise in March 21
Travel in China 15
Connected to Episcopal church in Washington, D.C. 4
Hospital in Vacaville, Calif. 3
Connected to Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. 3
Nursing facility in Stanwood, Wash. 3
Travel in Iran 2
Travel in South Korea 1
Unknown 736

You'll note 'unknown' is the largest category by far. That's why Dr. Fauci stated high concern over the lack of index cases. This is EXACTLY why we can't have idiots making decisions where the science should be the sole factor.

But most U.S. patients — and more every day — have now been diagnosed without any history of overseas travel, signaling that the illness was circulating within the United States and that people were being exposed in schools, offices and medical facilities.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html


Haven't said the contrary, here in Florida 33% of the confirmed cases are due to a 'nile river' cruise in Egypt.

The most recent case in Florida and the first in Miami-Dade is a man who recently came from Iran. There was a couple of cases in the Tampa-Bay area which were 'community spread', but most of the others are imported.



At this point it doesn't matter where the virus came from. The fact of the matter is it's in the US, it's highly contagious, and it's spreading like wildfire.

Tested cases ≠ true number of cases

You'll see in the coming days/weeks. Look at what's happening in Europe. Welcome to your near future, hope you're prepared.



Doomsday preppers weren't mad at its just not zombies they were worried about :D
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2541
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:25 pm

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/artic ... -de-spaulo

Trump had close contact with an infected person in a time period when they were likely infectious. Kind of a big deal, there were already comments that he appeared to be holding back coughs last night.

Keep any commentary coronavirus/impacts related. When bad things happen to a politician there's always someone who makes some kind of ugly partisan fueled comment. If anyone feels the need to do that, make a separate thread about it so we can keep things less ugly and partisan in here. Mods, please allow this. If Trump actually got infected people will want to discuss it.
Last edited by Jouhou on Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
情報
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 1191
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:25 pm

kalvado wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Well it WOULD help if he would resign or step aside so that a fully PROFESSIONAL operation can run the response.

Professional in WHAT?
Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi Jinping are busy at their other jobs. No other qualified applicant available.
Enforcing quarantine is VERY difficult without significant cooperation OR major use of force - more so with 2nd ammendment in place. Three questions people ask when quarantine is mentioned - would they be able to physically enforce that, is that legal per constitution to begin with, and what would be consequences for evading those measures (hint: none).
There is little else what can be done; and with 80% population living paycheck to paycheck consequences of stay at home is worse than violating those orders.

Biggest failure so far is refusing to administer enough tests, but that is bureaucratic thing first. Given how much those venerable impotent bureaucracies are defended (hint: think EPA cuts ) there is alot of blame to go back for decades.


So far, two things I see that are in short supply are professional statisticians / experimental replication experts, and a team of psychologists in the field of mass panic situations.

It is my hope that such a team can avert what looks like a misunderstanding about this disease and people fixating on rumors. The real danger I fear is not COVID-19, including being infected by it, but the possibility my city may be destroyed, and thousands killed by panicking looters pumped full of false information my media and social media parasites.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 13797
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:26 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
Italy numbers updated:

New Cases: 2,651 New deaths: 189 New recoveries: 213

Total Cases: 15,113 Total deaths: 1,016 Total recoveries: 1,258


What's worrying about the Italy situation is that the deaths and recovered numbers are so close. I don't see that same trend other places.


Recoveries take a lot longer to qualify. I think the are making it so that you have to test clean of the virus. I imagine the numbers will line up more as time goes on.

In the US we have 39 deaths and 12 recoveries, but now about 1400 infected.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
User avatar
Kiwirob
Posts: 13554
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:51 pm

Jouhou wrote:
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-12/brazil-communications-secretary-who-met-trump-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-estado-de-spaulo

Trump had close contact with an infected person in a time period when they were likely infectious. Kind of a big deal, there were already comments that he appeared to be holding back coughs last night.

Keep any commentary coronavirus/impacts related. When bad things happen to a politician there's always someone who makes some kind of ugly partisan fueled comment. If anyone feels the need to do that, make a separate thread about it so we can keep things less ugly and partisan in here. Mods, please allow this. If Trump actually got infected people will want to discuss it.


So in short you’re saying he’s elderly, in poor health and will likely die??
 
User avatar
Kiwirob
Posts: 13554
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:56 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Well it WOULD help if he would resign or step aside so that a fully PROFESSIONAL operation can run the response.

Professional in WHAT?
Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi Jinping are busy at their other jobs. No other qualified applicant available.
Enforcing quarantine is VERY difficult without significant cooperation OR major use of force - more so with 2nd ammendment in place. Three questions people ask when quarantine is mentioned - would they be able to physically enforce that, is that legal per constitution to begin with, and what would be consequences for evading those measures (hint: none).
There is little else what can be done; and with 80% population living paycheck to paycheck consequences of stay at home is worse than violating those orders.

Biggest failure so far is refusing to administer enough tests, but that is bureaucratic thing first. Given how much those venerable impotent bureaucracies are defended (hint: think EPA cuts ) there is alot of blame to go back for decades.


So far, two things I see that are in short supply are professional statisticians / experimental replication experts, and a team of psychologists in the field of mass panic situations.

It is my hope that such a team can avert what looks like a misunderstanding about this disease and people fixating on rumors. The real danger I fear is not COVID-19, including being infected by it, but the possibility my city may be destroyed, and thousands killed by panicking looters pumped full of false information my media and social media parasites.


Good thing Americans are tooled up and ready to defend there castles against the hordes of looting lower socioeconomic people.
 
kalvado
Posts: 3205
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:00 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Well it WOULD help if he would resign or step aside so that a fully PROFESSIONAL operation can run the response.

Professional in WHAT?
Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi Jinping are busy at their other jobs. No other qualified applicant available.
Enforcing quarantine is VERY difficult without significant cooperation OR major use of force - more so with 2nd ammendment in place. Three questions people ask when quarantine is mentioned - would they be able to physically enforce that, is that legal per constitution to begin with, and what would be consequences for evading those measures (hint: none).
There is little else what can be done; and with 80% population living paycheck to paycheck consequences of stay at home is worse than violating those orders.

Biggest failure so far is refusing to administer enough tests, but that is bureaucratic thing first. Given how much those venerable impotent bureaucracies are defended (hint: think EPA cuts ) there is alot of blame to go back for decades.


So far, two things I see that are in short supply are professional statisticians / experimental replication experts, and a team of psychologists in the field of mass panic situations.

It is my hope that such a team can avert what looks like a misunderstanding about this disease and people fixating on rumors. The real danger I fear is not COVID-19, including being infected by it, but the possibility my city may be destroyed, and thousands killed by panicking looters pumped full of false information my media and social media parasites.

US also has freedom of speech and free press to help with rumors. Mr. Putin just said he's not taking POTUS job until that is fixed.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2541
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:09 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-12/brazil-communications-secretary-who-met-trump-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-estado-de-spaulo

Trump had close contact with an infected person in a time period when they were likely infectious. Kind of a big deal, there were already comments that he appeared to be holding back coughs last night.

Keep any commentary coronavirus/impacts related. When bad things happen to a politician there's always someone who makes some kind of ugly partisan fueled comment. If anyone feels the need to do that, make a separate thread about it so we can keep things less ugly and partisan in here. Mods, please allow this. If Trump actually got infected people will want to discuss it.


So in short you’re saying he’s elderly, in poor health and will likely die??


As long as he isn't stubborn and allows doctors to test and treat him he will be getting better care than anyone else in this country ever could get. Thing is, he predictably does the opposite of what a logical choice would be. So he SHOULD be fine no matter what, but I wouldn't put it past him to never even allow a diagnosis until it's already too late.
情報
 
User avatar
DL717
Posts: 2364
Joined: Wed May 23, 2018 10:53 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:11 pm

aloges wrote:
DL717 wrote:
aloges wrote:
And it was accepted as usual.


Good for you. You’re allowed to come home. Off course, nothing goes into effect until Midnight Friday. Even then if you’re holding a US passport you’re good to go. Have a nice trip world traveler who thinks no one else has a passport they use regularly. :sarcastic:

I’m going nowhere near home, you could have asked instead of making yet more wild assumptions. But thanks for the good wishes, always appreciated in my line of work (courier).

As for your own passport, you can find out how much of your travel history it reveals by counting the stamps in it. You can easily be a world traveller without filling the pages quickly - again, that’s my point.


Sure.

www.hasbrouck.org/IDP/CBP_Privacy_Act_Request.doc
Funny. It only took one pandemic for those who argue endlessly about natural selection to stop believing in natural selection.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 20064
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:29 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Yes, good for you to clutter this thread with your trolling


Try looking in the mirror?

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Where is the compassion and the feeling for a difficult situation we ALL are enduring.


I'm sending thoughts and prayers! :pray:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3609
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:39 pm

Jouhou wrote:
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-12/brazil-communications-secretary-who-met-trump-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-estado-de-spaulo

Trump had close contact with an infected person in a time period when they were likely infectious. Kind of a big deal, there were already comments that he appeared to be holding back coughs last night.

Keep any commentary coronavirus/impacts related. When bad things happen to a politician there's always someone who makes some kind of ugly partisan fueled comment. If anyone feels the need to do that, make a separate thread about it so we can keep things less ugly and partisan in here. Mods, please allow this. If Trump actually got infected people will want to discuss it.


If (a big IF) Trump really caught the virus, I wonder who will get blame. The Dems for intentionally making him sick?

Mean while, up in the Great White North:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid1 ... -1.5495001

Trudeau and his wife are in self-isolation as his wife is showing symptoms similar to nCoV after a trip to UK (Oh...UK is excluded from the travel restriction BTW).

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