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olle
Posts: 2230
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:25 pm

In sweden we have 800 cases and 1 dead.

33 dead in US should be closer to 800 multiplied 33 dead.... Around 25 000.
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8507
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:27 pm

olle wrote:
In sweden we have 800 cases and 1 dead.

33 dead in US should be closer to 800 multiplied 33 dead.... Around 25 000.


That’s interpolation. The numbers I’ve seen from France are ten times deadlier than Germany. Something is amiss here, IMO.

Like I said, be careful with interpolating. Especially early on this crisis.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
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Aesma
Posts: 13122
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:32 pm

International travel at my company (very large French multinational with people and construction sites all over the world) has been restricted for weeks, now a plan has been put in place for my team, next week half of it go to work, the other half stays home (some keeping their children), then the week after we do the reverse. So basically I'm not seeing some of my colleagues for at least a month, that way if one team member is sick, he can't have contaminated the whole team.

I doubt this will really last that long, I expect everyone home within one week to be honest, mandated by the state.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
N757ST
Posts: 1018
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2002 6:00 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:51 pm

PPVRA wrote:
olle wrote:
In sweden we have 800 cases and 1 dead.

33 dead in US should be closer to 800 multiplied 33 dead.... Around 25 000.


That’s interpolation. The numbers I’ve seen from France are ten times deadlier than Germany. Something is amiss here, IMO.

Like I said, be careful with interpolating. Especially early on this crisis.



We’re obviously only testing sick people, likely very sick people. Bloomberg had an interesting article today that half the Diamond Princess infected were asymptomatic. If they are spreading it while being asymptomatic then we need much much wider testing to really get a grip on what’s happening with this thing.
 
M564038
Posts: 371
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:52 pm

This is can not be explained away with interpolation.
The major variables are the start of testing and the amount of testing.

Actual deaths are a lot safer number, and with the US being 41 times higher than Norway and 33 higher than sweden, we can safely say the threat has veen severly downplayed by the US leaders and that the response is far behind the curve.



PPVRA wrote:
olle wrote:
In sweden we have 800 cases and 1 dead.

33 dead in US should be closer to 800 multiplied 33 dead.... Around 25 000.


That’s interpolation. The numbers I’ve seen from France are ten times deadlier than Germany. Something is amiss here, IMO.

Like I said, be careful with interpolating. Especially early on this crisis.
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8507
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:58 pm

M564038 wrote:
This is can not be explained away with interpolation.
The major variables are the start of testing and the amount of testing.

Actual deaths are a lot safer number, and with the US being 41 times higher than Norway and 33 higher than sweden, we can safely say the threat has veen severly downplayed by the US leaders and that the response is far behind the curve.



PPVRA wrote:
olle wrote:
In sweden we have 800 cases and 1 dead.

33 dead in US should be closer to 800 multiplied 33 dead.... Around 25 000.


That’s interpolation. The numbers I’ve seen from France are ten times deadlier than Germany. Something is amiss here, IMO.

Like I said, be careful with interpolating. Especially early on this crisis.


Take your politics glasses off. France has seen 10X worse death rate than Germany. It’s not the only two countries with vastly different death rates right now.

My exact point is to NOT rely on interpolation which is exactly what you are doing. Stop it.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5747
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:58 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
France is closing schools but that is too little too late. Even Belgium that was very conservative at first is taking much heavier steps.

France will undoubtly follow in Italy's footsteps as Macron's pro-industrial stance will come back to bite him and his elite friends in the rear.


I live in Paris and I agree how much denial I see around.

Yes companies have put restrictions but people see it more of an annoyance, not something necesary. And this is because big American companies in France put those restrictions in the first place, so local CAC40 companies have to "follow". Plenty of people around me in the office taking holidays or planning to go to exotic places (some cancelled now because of restrictions) over the next few days/weeks. Even yesterday some of them were "joking" that hopefully they will get it next month after they return from holiday.

I ventured to walk a bit into the city and everything seemed normal this afternoon. People everywhere in restaurants, shops, buses, (I reckon) metro. Probably fewer people overall because there are pretty much no tourists (in otherwise a city full of tourists) but nothing out of the ordinary. Ironically I found interesting that the overwhelming majority of people I saw with masks are 1) (local) Asians, 2) (local) Arabs, 3) tourists. I guess the "average white Parisian" finds wearing a mask laughable still today.

For what is worth, it seems that Italy has been much more proactive and serious about it (both the government and people).

Also something I noticed is that until very few days ago, the COVID19 was rarely the main piece of news in the online site of the big newspapers (no matter the ideology: Le Monde, Le Figaro, Le Parisien...). I even recall a few days ago the Weinstein process was the main cover news for a whole day while the virus was getting out of control already in Europe (at that time, Italian, British or Spanish media were already almost monothematic with the coronavirus). Completely ridiculous. It seemed to me like the French media deliberality tried to downplay it until literally this week.

I am also very skeptical about Germany, they might be the canary in a coal mine. Germany reports very few deaths which is quite weird for the biggest (80 million people) European country, with many borders (at least with France and not far from Italy) and flights everywhere, and the country where some of the very first cases in Europe were reported (e.g. the first in Spain came from Germany). And German healthcare is not renowned by its efficiency. Really strange. But I wouldn't be surprised that the Germans try not to create panic in order to keep their economy alive.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1037
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:15 pm

Regarding Germany; it seems, Germany is doing something different to other countries. We Germans are a little bit crazy....Yes, as also me....and I am a typical German, Mr. 150%...
Pretty sure as regular, Germany is prepared, what will regular never occur and also as regular, we Germany are most hysteric citizen of the world. So as regular, best prepared of the world and whining hysterical that we will all die most worse possible....
I was today in a supermarket....lol...

Today status for Germany: 3675 confirmed Coronavirus cases, 25 are healthy again. Please note, the rules, when someone will be stated as confirmed healthy again is really strict. We have now 8 confirmed dead, who have had a Coronavirus infection.
This is now a 2,1 of thousand in Germany, in comparison to 71 of thousand in Italy, 43 of thousand in USA, 21 of thousand in France or 8.3 in South Korea. With only 8 dead of let us say 8000 identified and still not identified cases, statistically there is already a chance of let us say one death case all three or four days of a citizen, which is independent of a Coronavirus infection but who will be in test positive for Coronavirus. The death rate of 2.1/1000 is next to natural death rate background level.

Perhaps other countries shall have had done their job accordingly and had not only tried to confirm all these suspect cases, who have already ended up in the hospitals if they have Corona or not.
On this way, no one will stop a pandemic.

Till now, German healthcare system is not in trouble. Now everything is done to slow the progress, so that the health care system will not be overwhelmed.

Access visitors to nursing homes for elderly and special care homes are already in several states forbidden, to hospitals is restricted to one per day and patient, for special care units for high risk patients (lung e.g.) is forbidden.
German government has now ordered 10.000 additional lung ventilators from Dräger, to be delivered till end of the year. Germany is already best prepared, as the number of intensive care units, especially with lung ventilator beds/100.000 citizen, are up to the highest in the world, It is 24. As example, for Denmark it is 6 and around this is the global average for western countries.

On Monday, schools, universities and Kindergarten will close in most states, seems to be soon in all. Always remind, Germany is by law a federation.This is in responsibility of every single state. regular (what I have seen), in all states, day care of children will be guaranteed if parent is in an essential job (physicians, nurses of hospitals/nursing homes or doctor's practice; policemen, fireman e.g.).
German soccer first to second, handball, basketball, ice hockey e,g, leagues have now been stopped or will.
In Berlin clubs will be closed (else till now not). Pubs are still open e.g.
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:22 pm

M564038 wrote:
This is can not be explained away with interpolation.
The major variables are the start of testing and the amount of testing.

Actual deaths are a lot safer number, and with the US being 41 times higher than Norway and 33 higher than sweden, we can safely say the threat has veen severly downplayed by the US leaders and that the response is far behind the curve.


Really. Or maybe it just hasn't reached a few nursing homes, as it did in Seattle, thus killing easy targets first.

Don't quite your day job for that career in statistical analysis.
 
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gatibosgru
Posts: 1770
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:45 pm

PPVRA wrote:
Newark727 wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:

Not very nice thing to say is it.


Well, Bolsonaro isn't a very nice person.


People are vastly exaggerating Bolsonaro. He’s far more centrist and reasonable than the media is portraying him, just as they’re happily reporting that he’s infected when the first test is actually negative.

Not that he’s perfect by any means.


I guess the "centrist" views depend on which causes you support.
@DadCelo
 
M564038
Posts: 371
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:50 pm

No.
You simply don’t get it, do you?
You are comparing the wrong things.

Are you simply denying that the US is already deep into this thing? These aren’t all different strains, and we aren’t trying to extrapolate death rate.

Another thing you need to consider is that testing stops even on people that exibhit symptoms at some point. They are told to stay at home, good luck, call the hospital if you start having problems breathing. Testing is then only used to trace outbreaks in new areas. We are in that phase now many places, and the US started and stayed in that phase.

PPVRA wrote:
M564038 wrote:
This is can not be explained away with interpolation.
The major variables are the start of testing and the amount of testing.

Actual deaths are a lot safer number, and with the US being 41 times higher than Norway and 33 higher than sweden, we can safely say the threat has veen severly downplayed by the US leaders and that the response is far behind the curve.



PPVRA wrote:

That’s interpolation. The numbers I’ve seen from France are ten times deadlier than Germany. Something is amiss here, IMO.

Like I said, be careful with interpolating. Especially early on this crisis.


Take your politics glasses off. France has seen 10X worse death rate than Germany. It’s not the only two countries with vastly different death rates right now.

My exact point is to NOT rely on interpolation which is exactly what you are doing. Stop it.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1037
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:15 pm

mham001 wrote:
M564038 wrote:
This is can not be explained away with interpolation.
The major variables are the start of testing and the amount of testing.

Actual deaths are a lot safer number, and with the US being 41 times higher than Norway and 33 higher than sweden, we can safely say the threat has veen severly downplayed by the US leaders and that the response is far behind the curve.


Really. Or maybe it just hasn't reached a few nursing homes, as it did in Seattle, thus killing easy targets first.

Don't quite your day job for that career in statistical analysis.


Sorry to say, but...
1. Coronavirus kills elderly and patients with pre-existing conditions...so regular it kills elderly with pre-existing conditions. This is the same in the whole world, including USA. The few other death by below 60 years healthy patients are low and do not count regarding the death rate. Also this is the same in the whole world. So this is no excuse for anything.
2. dead linked to a nursing home in Seattle is not the same as "died in the nursing home". In the nursing home only two or three have died, but it was the Coronavirus hot spot, Someone died, who got the Coronavirus from someone, who got the virus, from one who got it from, who got it from...and at the end there is: who has visited his grandfather in the nursing home, who has had the Coronavirus....This is linked...
3. In Germany, there have been up to 20.000 Coronavirus tests performed already few days ago...per day..you understand, not in total, we are talking about PER DAY. Now the capacity has raised. Last two days, I was somewhere in Germany (you need not to know) in a hospital (the same) and could see the local Coronavirus test station of the city. I was just working there in this hospital. As regular, the test station is in a tent in front of one of the hospital buildings. I would bet, perhaps around 200 patients in two days, who have been tested. These were only the cases in this city, who were suspected (so with symptoms, confirmed by the private physician), but had no connection to a known Coronavirus case. All with connection will stay home and be visited by the health authority directly. Every city in Germany and administrative district in Germany has one or more of these Coronavirus test stations now, regular as tent in front of hospitals, in some cases there are even already drive in.
If in USA an according number of tests would have been performed, perhaps someone would have recognized, that there were already...let us estimate...30.000 cases and there are already 200 dead.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 12293
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:59 pm

T4thH wrote:
mham001 wrote:
M564038 wrote:
This is can not be explained away with interpolation.
The major variables are the start of testing and the amount of testing.

Actual deaths are a lot safer number, and with the US being 41 times higher than Norway and 33 higher than sweden, we can safely say the threat has veen severly downplayed by the US leaders and that the response is far behind the curve.


Really. Or maybe it just hasn't reached a few nursing homes, as it did in Seattle, thus killing easy targets first.

Don't quite your day job for that career in statistical analysis.


Sorry to say, but...
1. Coronavirus kills elderly and patients with pre-existing conditions...so regular it kills elderly with pre-existing conditions. This is the same in the whole world, including USA. The few other death by below 60 years healthy patients are low and do not count regarding the death rate. Also this is the same in the whole world. So this is no excuse for anything.
2. dead linked to a nursing home in Seattle is not the same as "died in the nursing home". In the nursing home only two or three have died, but it was the Coronavirus hot spot, Someone died, who got the Coronavirus from someone, who got the virus, from one who got it from, who got it from...and at the end there is: who has visited his grandfather in the nursing home, who has had the Coronavirus....This is linked...
3. In Germany, there have been up to 20.000 Coronavirus tests performed already few days ago...per day..you understand, not in total, we are talking about PER DAY. Now the capacity has raised. Last two days, I was somewhere in Germany (you need not to know) in a hospital (the same) and could see the local Coronavirus test station of the city. I was just working there in this hospital. As regular, the test station is in a tent in front of one of the hospital buildings. I would bet, perhaps around 200 patients in two days, who have been tested. These were only the cases in this city, who were suspected (so with symptoms, confirmed by the private physician), but had no connection to a known Coronavirus case. All with connection will stay home and be visited by the health authority directly. Every city in Germany and administrative district in Germany has one or more of these Coronavirus test stations now, regular as tent in front of hospitals, in some cases there are even already drive in.
If in USA an according number of tests would have been performed, perhaps someone would have recognized, that there were already...let us estimate...30.000 cases and there are already 200 dead.


Come now, administration apologists are not interested in nuance or science.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
Cadet985
Posts: 2244
Joined: Sat Mar 02, 2002 6:45 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:20 am

Okay...I’ll be responding to those who replied to my earlier post probably later tonight or tomorrow...but now we’ve really hit emergency panic levels.

Amazon is OUT of toilet paper!

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/jgek ... our-emails

Marc
 
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2567
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:29 am

A new study in The Lancet by Chinese scientists worth reading:

Some key points:

- 191 patients were hospitalized
- 54 out of 191 patients died
- 32 needed mechanical help breathing (intubation), and out of those 31 died. (!)
- Half the patients who died had hypertension (high blood pressure).
- One third had diabetes
- A quarter had various heart problems

But here's the most important finding:

-- > Patients who recovered were contagious up to 37 days! < --


https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 40-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:35 am

Cadet985 wrote:
Okay...I’ll be responding to those who replied to my earlier post probably later tonight or tomorrow...but now we’ve really hit emergency panic levels.

Amazon is OUT of toilet paper!

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/jgek ... our-emails

Marc


The US really should manufacture toilet paper itself. It is beyond ridiculous to have it import from China.
 
Derico
Posts: 4410
Joined: Mon Dec 20, 1999 9:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:46 am

As a person whose life has become a sort of living in the bridge between Orient and Occident, this will prove a seminal moment to see how these two cultural civilizations deal with this situation. Eastern culture places the collective above the individual, so on that basis one could argue they are better equipped to deal with a pandemic and the measures needed to take to stop it.

Western culture is much more individual based (I disagree with using the word "selfish" about western culture, it's not true), so one could suppose measures like the ones in China or Korea or Taiwan will not be so successful there. But so far, Italians seem to be very gallantly keeping calm and carrying on. The signing in the balconies was very inspiring. So that has given me a little more hope.
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 19976
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:25 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Cadet985 wrote:
Okay...I’ll be responding to those who replied to my earlier post probably later tonight or tomorrow...but now we’ve really hit emergency panic levels.

Amazon is OUT of toilet paper!

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/jgek ... our-emails

Marc


The US really should manufacture toilet paper itself. It is beyond ridiculous to have it import from China.

Any region that is a major producer of wood tends to manufacture toilet paper.

Alabama has Georgia Pacific
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.al.com%2 ... Type%3damp

also in Baton Rouge: https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge ... 17239.html

This link states Oregon and Washington are major suppliers.
https://www.quora.com/Where-is-toilet-p ... nufactured

This issue will be the plastic a bunch of goods are wrapped in that comes from China (often). In particular cookie trays.

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
DLFREEBIRD
Posts: 1482
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:07 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:38 am

let's talk about social distancing, and if you think it will work at this late stage.

https://qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-the-1 ... ing-works/
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:38 am

lightsaber wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Cadet985 wrote:
Okay...I’ll be responding to those who replied to my earlier post probably later tonight or tomorrow...but now we’ve really hit emergency panic levels.

Amazon is OUT of toilet paper!

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/jgek ... our-emails

Marc


The US really should manufacture toilet paper itself. It is beyond ridiculous to have it import from China.

Any region that is a major producer of wood tends to manufacture toilet paper.

Alabama has Georgia Pacific
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.al.com%2 ... Type%3damp

also in Baton Rouge: https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge ... 17239.html

This link states Oregon and Washington are major suppliers.
https://www.quora.com/Where-is-toilet-p ... nufactured

This issue will be the plastic a bunch of goods are wrapped in that comes from China (often). In particular cookie trays.

Lightsaber


Instead of wrapping it in Chinese plastic, wrap it in Cellophane.
 
N757ST
Posts: 1018
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2002 6:00 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:38 am

JetBuddy wrote:
A new study in The Lancet by Chinese scientists worth reading:

Some key points:

- 191 patients were hospitalized
- 54 out of 191 patients died
- 32 needed mechanical help breathing (intubation), and out of those 31 died. (!)
- Half the patients who died had hypertension (high blood pressure).
- One third had diabetes
- A quarter had various heart problems

But here's the most important finding:

-- > Patients who recovered were contagious up to 37 days! < --


https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 40-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext


I mean, that’s not surprising. If they are surveying especially hospital patients those were the ones with more severe illness. It seems minor Illness lasts between 7-14 days, and severe up to 6 weeks. I’d contend depending on the severity of illness you could be contagious in the entire 7-45 days depending on your condition.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1285
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:46 am

In Belgium, an emergency government is now being formed between PS French-speaking leftists/socialists and NVA Dutch-speaking rightists/populists, totally opposing ideologies that a few months ago swore would never work together again. https://www.hln.be/nieuws/binnenland/da ... ~a2733961/

In Italy, PM Conte recently formed a new government with PD after kicking out Salvini with his right-populistic party. However the last days, after taking a few cheap shots at him, PM Conte has started granting Salvini's suggestions one after the other and Salvini has also stopped acting as a criticising opposition force and is actively issuing proposals and suggestions.


In the USA, they are still playing childish politics but I think that in a few days, play time will be over and fear will settle in.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:47 am

How/why does a “minor” Coronavirus infection clear up? Simply by immune response?
And considering how infectious it is, you might be free after a couple of weeks but then get reinfected again. In fact, it might “ping pong” among a group of people forever.
 
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2567
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:14 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
In Belgium, an emergency government is now being formed between PS French-speaking leftists/socialists and NVA Dutch-speaking rightists/populists, totally opposing ideologies that a few months ago swore would never work together again. https://www.hln.be/nieuws/binnenland/da ... ~a2733961/

In Italy, PM Conte recently formed a new government with PD after kicking out Salvini with his right-populistic party. However the last days, after taking a few cheap shots at him, PM Conte has started granting Salvini's suggestions one after the other and Salvini has also stopped acting as a criticising opposition force and is actively issuing proposals and suggestions.


In the USA, they are still playing childish politics but I think that in a few days, play time will be over and fear will settle in.


There are voices in Norway also suggesting the minority government prime minister should create a new majority government with previous "enemies" to stand together and get more effective control. At least temporarily.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8338
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:20 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
...
In the USA, they are still playing childish politics but I think that in a few days, play time will be over and fear will settle in.


I think reality is setting in, slowly but steadily. Few state Governors closed all schools, addressed issues schools districts cannot resolve themselves. I think Trump also realized this is not going away,. Declared national emergency by invoking Stafford Act, FEMA should be able to help state and local authorities.

As new positive cases emerge, my county started notifying the list of places infected people visited with date and time ranges,
All posts are just opinions.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:27 am

Since when is FEMA such a big help. Remember the Katrina disaster?
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 550
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:14 am

PPVRA wrote:
M564038 wrote:
This is can not be explained away with interpolation.
The major variables are the start of testing and the amount of testing.

Actual deaths are a lot safer number, and with the US being 41 times higher than Norway and 33 higher than sweden, we can safely say the threat has veen severly downplayed by the US leaders and that the response is far behind the curve.



PPVRA wrote:

That’s interpolation. The numbers I’ve seen from France are ten times deadlier than Germany. Something is amiss here, IMO.

Like I said, be careful with interpolating. Especially early on this crisis.


Take your politics glasses off. France has seen 10X worse death rate than Germany. It’s not the only two countries with vastly different death rates right now.

My exact point is to NOT rely on interpolation which is exactly what you are doing. Stop it.


Well said. There is not yet enough information to know whether this is really an especially noteworthy pandemic. It certainly isn’t yet, in terms of deaths. In 1918, 5,000 global deaths would not even be detected, much less be any cause for alarm.

The covid19.info has lovely data visualizations. Which are in my view of almost zero use (it is not a medical or biological science issue, it is just a simple dead body count). It shows people who tested positive and people who died. What it doesn’t show is who was tested, and under what circumstances were they tested, and what does that imply about the population’s current status and future prospects. That part (the useful part that contains actual information) is missing. And how does that compare to other health problems such as overeating.

Yes, I understand this is probably a dangerous outbreak that will kill a lot of people. But the statistics yet displayed have no applicable meaning. Whatsoever. Without more information.
 
yonahleung
Posts: 72
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:55 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:37 am

SCQ83 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
France is closing schools but that is too little too late. Even Belgium that was very conservative at first is taking much heavier steps.

France will undoubtly follow in Italy's footsteps as Macron's pro-industrial stance will come back to bite him and his elite friends in the rear.


I live in Paris and I agree how much denial I see around.

Yes companies have put restrictions but people see it more of an annoyance, not something necesary. And this is because big American companies in France put those restrictions in the first place, so local CAC40 companies have to "follow". Plenty of people around me in the office taking holidays or planning to go to exotic places (some cancelled now because of restrictions) over the next few days/weeks. Even yesterday some of them were "joking" that hopefully they will get it next month after they return from holiday.

I ventured to walk a bit into the city and everything seemed normal this afternoon. People everywhere in restaurants, shops, buses, (I reckon) metro. Probably fewer people overall because there are pretty much no tourists (in otherwise a city full of tourists) but nothing out of the ordinary. Ironically I found interesting that the overwhelming majority of people I saw with masks are 1) (local) Asians, 2) (local) Arabs, 3) tourists. I guess the "average white Parisian" finds wearing a mask laughable still today.

For what is worth, it seems that Italy has been much more proactive and serious about it (both the government and people).

Also something I noticed is that until very few days ago, the COVID19 was rarely the main piece of news in the online site of the big newspapers (no matter the ideology: Le Monde, Le Figaro, Le Parisien...). I even recall a few days ago the Weinstein process was the main cover news for a whole day while the virus was getting out of control already in Europe (at that time, Italian, British or Spanish media were already almost monothematic with the coronavirus). Completely ridiculous. It seemed to me like the French media deliberality tried to downplay it until literally this week.

I am also very skeptical about Germany, they might be the canary in a coal mine. Germany reports very few deaths which is quite weird for the biggest (80 million people) European country, with many borders (at least with France and not far from Italy) and flights everywhere, and the country where some of the very first cases in Europe were reported (e.g. the first in Spain came from Germany). And German healthcare is not renowned by its efficiency. Really strange. But I wouldn't be surprised that the Germans try not to create panic in order to keep their economy alive.

Thanks for this critical information. I am cancelling my Bali trip next week because of this. People acting like this will bring the virus all over to the world, especially the tourist destinations.
 
Kno
Posts: 547
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2016 10:08 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:57 am

LCDFlight wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
M564038 wrote:
This is can not be explained away with interpolation.
The major variables are the start of testing and the amount of testing.

Actual deaths are a lot safer number, and with the US being 41 times higher than Norway and 33 higher than sweden, we can safely say the threat has veen severly downplayed by the US leaders and that the response is far behind the curve.





Take your politics glasses off. France has seen 10X worse death rate than Germany. It’s not the only two countries with vastly different death rates right now.

My exact point is to NOT rely on interpolation which is exactly what you are doing. Stop it.


Well said. There is not yet enough information to know whether this is really an especially noteworthy pandemic. It certainly isn’t yet, in terms of deaths. In 1918, 5,000 global deaths would not even be detected, much less be any cause for alarm.

The covid19.info has lovely data visualizations. Which are in my view of almost zero use (it is not a medical or biological science issue, it is just a simple dead body count). It shows people who tested positive and people who died. What it doesn’t show is who was tested, and under what circumstances were they tested, and what does that imply about the population’s current status and future prospects. That part (the useful part that contains actual information) is missing. And how does that compare to other health problems such as overeating.

Yes, I understand this is probably a dangerous outbreak that will kill a lot of people. But the statistics yet displayed have no applicable meaning. Whatsoever. Without more information.


Thank you!!
 
A101
Posts: 2061
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:22 am

little ole NZ putting the toughest restrictions on travellers yet,

Coronavirus: New Zealand brings in 'world's toughest border restrictions' to fight outbreak

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... k-11957379
 
curlyheadboy
Posts: 849
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 6:56 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:40 am

Very objective, unbiased and informative interview of an Italian intensive care Physician on ABC. Worth a watch.
Topics:

- Situation in the outbreak epicenter
- Severity in age groups
- Admission to therapy criteria
- Comparison among different countries

https://youtu.be/9mrPHO-nkVE
If God had wanted men to fly he would have given them more money...
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:19 am

Ok, so I came to a realization today: this virus is moving WAY faster than anything any country has made pandemic plans for, and it's leaving senior leadership sort of paralyzed and disoriented and spending too much time making slow plans to a fast pandemic. Do not be afraid to take charge if the people in your organization seem to be flailing and you know what they should be doing. I got frustrated and opened various channels of communication with different levels of leadership and discovered they all didn't know what to do and wanted someone to tell them what they can do. Surprisingly, many seemed thankful that I could answer their questions and provide some guidance for preventative actions.

I advise anyone in a similar situation to not be shy about taking charge in a crisis. There's too much on the line and not enough time.
情報
 
dobilan
Posts: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 1:48 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:07 am

@jouhou...here (an eastern member of EU) basic protective items and biocide solution are starting to dry up fast even in the hospitals and physician cabinets. Could you share knowledge resources for locally manufacturing them (biocides, surgical masks, maybe "N95 grade" masks) for readily available, common resources? I suppose there have to be some "open source" formulas for biocides or filtration materials. Thanks
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 6232
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:43 am

A101 wrote:
little ole NZ putting the toughest restrictions on travellers yet,


It's just a clickbait headline. Israel has implemened similar measure already on Mar. 12th.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:32 am

dobilan wrote:
@jouhou...here (an eastern member of EU) basic protective items and biocide solution are starting to dry up fast even in the hospitals and physician cabinets. Could you share knowledge resources for locally manufacturing them (biocides, surgical masks, maybe "N95 grade" masks) for readily available, common resources? I suppose there have to be some "open source" formulas for biocides or filtration materials. Thanks


The mask filter material is generally made of polypropylene and globally production capacity is actually surging in a spectacular manner, but we started from a very small capacity in the first place. Shortages will remain but capacity is catching up faster than I imagined. But you need the specialized equipment for manufacturing the material. Social distancing is the only choice until then.

The virus is an enveloped virus and is very fragile when exposed to most disinfectants, pretty much anything labeled as a disinfectant can theoretically inactivate it. 3% hydrogen peroxide won't work though, but higher concentrations (not available in regular stores) will.

Sodium Hypochlorite (chlorine bleach) has multiple methods in which it can be manufactured and is one of the most effective disinfectants.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodium_ ... Production
情報
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 9628
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:35 am

T4thH wrote:
Regarding Germany; it seems, Germany is doing something different to other countries. We Germans are a little bit crazy....Yes, as also me....and I am a typical German, Mr. 150%...
Pretty sure as regular, Germany is prepared, what will regular never occur and also as regular, we Germany are most hysteric citizen of the world. So as regular, best prepared of the world and whining hysterical that we will all die most worse possible....
I was today in a supermarket....lol......


Even I was amazed at the preparation levels. Our city is now sewing face masks from materials stashed away during the cold war or something and will have 15.000 additional (re-useable) masks in a month. Even old mechanical resperation machines are dusted off and made ready again. I thought they would have been all thrown away, but it seems every larger clinic had some stored in the cellar.
 
LJ
Posts: 5332
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:19 am

Aesma wrote:
International travel at my company (very large French multinational with people and construction sites all over the world) has been restricted for weeks, now a plan has been put in place for my team, next week half of it go to work, the other half stays home (some keeping their children), then the week after we do the reverse. So basically I'm not seeing some of my colleagues for at least a month, that way if one team member is sick, he can't have contaminated the whole team.

I doubt this will really last that long, I expect everyone home within one week to be honest, mandated by the state.


The policy at my employer (a very large financial institution in The Netherlands) is clear. Only those who need to be in the office as their work doesn't permit working from home are allowed to work from home. Everybody else (including the board of directors) has to work from home and is not allowed to come near any of our offices unless one has authorisation from its manager. Travel has been banned for a few days already unless it's absolutely vital for the company or if people need to return home. In essence, the result is that shops and restaurants will face a difficult time as of Monday as they miss out on all those buying lunch.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 19096
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:26 am

I sadly can't claim credit for this, but thought I'd pass it on...

So, with all sport cancelled, I decided to speak to my wife. It turn out she's been made redundant from her job at Woolworths!
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
LJ
Posts: 5332
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:36 am

Cadet985 wrote:
Okay...I’ll be responding to those who replied to my earlier post probably later tonight or tomorrow...but now we’ve really hit emergency panic levels.

Amazon is OUT of toilet paper!

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/jgek ... our-emails

Marc


Can someone explain where everybody is buying toilet paper? I buy toilet paper when it's on sale thus always have some sort of stock (we, family of 4, do 2 - 3 months to clear the entire stock of 32 rolls). Moreover, one can substitute toilet paper when necessary. Or is the only reason why people buy it because everybody else buys it? Why else would one need 50 rolls (which I saw on TV someone buying)?
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1285
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:47 am

That's it folks, the company I work for in Western Europe has been shut down effective right now, for 3 weeks, by decision of the owners. 50 employees are out on welfare benefits maintaining 75% of their take home pay, but they're not allowed to leave the country except if they use sick days.
I'll be one of few to show up to ensure security, safety, communications and essential services.
The owners were in shock and really nervous, hoping to not have to extend, but this makes the most sense to preserve cash. Competitors who will try to peddle through will burn themselves as the market for our services has imploded and payroll is a killer around here.
By shutting down, we lose 100% of revenue but also reduce operating costs by 95%ish. Competitors will lose 70% of revenue while reducing costs by 30%, hoping to make up the difference with their margins but it's like trying to peddle upstream in a canyon. At beat they'll be stationary, at worst they will burn throught their cash before they even realise it.

I'm also going to add info from a reliable source.
I can't name the source as it's a JAL employee who can get in trouble. JAL's seat load factors on TPAC routes are averaging around 30% currently.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1037
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:05 am

dobilan wrote:
@jouhou...here (an eastern member of EU) basic protective items and biocide solution are starting to dry up fast even in the hospitals and physician cabinets. Could you share knowledge resources for locally manufacturing them (biocides, surgical masks, maybe "N95 grade" masks) for readily available, common resources? I suppose there have to be some "open source" formulas for biocides or filtration materials. Thanks


Sorry, but for what do you need it? What is the purpose of it?
Regarding filter masks, regular filter masks can only protect others, if you have it. It will will not protect you, if others have it.
Special filter masks, which will protect you from others, will not protect others, if you have it.
This is the issue as Coronavirus is a droplet infection.

Standard measurements are regular good enough. There is a magic tool, it is called...soap...
Best is to have a slighly acid soap of ph 5.5 as your skin is slightly acidic.
Was your hands accordingly and regular (but do not exaggerate it, how often. You shall not damage the skin).
So before you leave your flat (to protect others), when you came back, before lunch (or preparing of lunch) and after.
A one time tissue is a one time tissue, once used, throw it away into the next bin. Stay away to others, best 2 m, regular one m is also good enough. Cough in your crock of the arm (sneeze of course also, but to sneeze has nothing to do with Coronavirus, Coronavirus is an lower respiratory infection and not an upper). Do not shake hands AND TAKE CARE, HOW OFTEN YOU GRAB WITH YOUR HANDS IN YOUR FACE! You touch your face, and the eyes or your mouth, this is the regular way, you get it. It is going over the mucous membranes.

If you have fever + dry cough, stay home, call your physician.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 13122
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:19 am

LJ wrote:
Cadet985 wrote:
Okay...I’ll be responding to those who replied to my earlier post probably later tonight or tomorrow...but now we’ve really hit emergency panic levels.

Amazon is OUT of toilet paper!

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/jgek ... our-emails

Marc


Can someone explain where everybody is buying toilet paper? I buy toilet paper when it's on sale thus always have some sort of stock (we, family of 4, do 2 - 3 months to clear the entire stock of 32 rolls). Moreover, one can substitute toilet paper when necessary. Or is the only reason why people buy it because everybody else buys it? Why else would one need 50 rolls (which I saw on TV someone buying)?


Apparently it came from a scam in HK, and now everybody thinks "TP is the thing to have in a pandemic" and panic buys it.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
dobilan
Posts: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 1:48 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:19 am

@T4thH, there is a need for basic protection measures at physician practices and hospitals. People are flocking like crazy to the doctor for mild or even imaginary symptoms and regular supply channels for basic protection measures aren't nearly enough. Ideally they would be locally manufactured since the the international supply is low and quarantines tighter. Some of the doctors are improvising face masks out of regular paper towels to give them to patients when they enter the premise. They are better than nothing if the patients cough or sneeze. Most of them are still coming with common colds or flu but still. People do not understand basic rules, look what's happening in Paris right now with the Yellow Vests for instance.
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15199
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:34 am

I wonder if the 2-3 week shutdowns of our lives as in process in many parts of the world is enough. Once we go through one, then what happens ? Once they end, many will want to have normal lives, need to go to work for money to survive, be with other people and then possibly create another round of people getting sick then another 2-3 week shutdown. We could have several cycles of this over months.
 
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Aesma
Posts: 13122
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:52 pm

ltbewr wrote:
I wonder if the 2-3 week shutdowns of our lives as in process in many parts of the world is enough. Once we go through one, then what happens ? Once they end, many will want to have normal lives, need to go to work for money to survive, be with other people and then possibly create another round of people getting sick then another 2-3 week shutdown. We could have several cycles of this over months.


Yes that's the problem. Wuhan wasn't shut down for 2 weeks but more like 2 months, and it's a real shutdown, unlike anything done elsewhere.

Personally I can work from home indefinitely (and this situation might even help my case to my superiors that I want to telework at least 1 day a week) however I work in a supporting role, if the main business of my company stops, with empty offices, then I have nothing to do anyway.

The French government has announced that it will pay FULL SALARIES, not just the usual minimum wage (with the company paying some of the rest up to 85% or something like that), or unemployment benefits (50-85% depending on what you make). Actually researching this there is some confusion, with the prime minister saying "we'll deal with the numbers later", a bit strange really. To me while it would be nice in a way, it wouldn't make sense to do this, as I would expect plenty of companies, mine included, to just shut down for a couple of months, with basically paid vacations for every employee ! You could even imagine some fraud going on, with the higher ups really continuing to work from home, to manage the parts of the company that will still be running in other countries.

Too bad I haven't bought my house yet, I could be refurbishing it while being paid.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
T4thH
Posts: 1037
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:15 pm

dobilan wrote:
@T4thH, there is a need for basic protection measures at physician practices and hospitals. People are flocking like crazy to the doctor for mild or even imaginary symptoms and regular supply channels for basic protection measures aren't nearly enough. Ideally they would be locally manufactured since the the international supply is low and quarantines tighter. Some of the doctors are improvising face masks out of regular paper towels to give them to patients when they enter the premise. They are better than nothing if the patients cough or sneeze. Most of them are still coming with common colds or flu but still. People do not understand basic rules, look what's happening in Paris right now with the Yellow Vests for instance.


In this case: WHO has published two recipes for self made disinfectant for hands.
https://www.who.int/gpsc/5may/Guide_to_Local_Production.pdf?ua=1
 
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cjg225
Posts: 1979
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2013 8:59 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:13 pm

Aesma wrote:
Apparently it came from a scam in HK, and now everybody thinks "TP is the thing to have in a pandemic" and panic buys it.

I was explaining this to a guy in line at the grocery store this morning who was asking about that.

What I don't get is why the media doesn't do something good for a change and report that so that maybe people stop. I mean, I know they won't, but... give it a shot, at least.
Restoring Penn State's transportation heritage...
 
User avatar
Pellegrine
Posts: 2455
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2007 10:19 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:13 pm

I've heard there maybe a US nationwide quarantine for 2-4 weeks from a source at CDC. The government is seriously discussing it apparently.
We fly JETS, we don't fly donkeys.
 
StuckinCMHland
Posts: 232
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 10:59 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:31 pm

For those of you who live in Ohio, I have a question.

The head of the Ohio Department of Health (who had an above the fold, rather flattering story written about her in the Columbus Dispatch on Saturday 3/14), changed a lot of minds in political leaders in the state by saying on Thursday 3/12 there are at least 100,000 people who have the virus in the state. With respect, there had been only 5 cases reported on Thursday and 13 as this morning, and not many positive tests for it.

Does anyone know where she got the 100,000 number?

thanks.
 
melpax
Posts: 2047
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:42 pm

LJ wrote:
The policy at my employer (a very large financial institution in The Netherlands) is clear. Only those who need to be in the office as their work doesn't permit working from home are allowed to work from home. Everybody else (including the board of directors) has to work from home and is not allowed to come near any of our offices unless one has authorisation from its manager. Travel has been banned for a few days already unless it's absolutely vital for the company or if people need to return home. In essence, the result is that shops and restaurants will face a difficult time as of Monday as they miss out on all those buying lunch.


The building next to my office has a few floors occupied by one of the big 4 Aussie banks. Our complex (a group of 5 office towers in MEL) also has the head offices of the NBN & Tabcorp (a large gambling/betting company). The bank employees were apparently sent a text message at 6.30 on Thursday night telling them not to come into the office 'until further notice'. NBN & Tabcorp also held a teleworking 'dress rehersal' on Thursday. The food court & cafe operators are quite nervous at the moment....

https://www.theage.com.au/business/comp ... 549ba.html
Essendon - Whatever it takes......

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