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zkojq
Posts: 4319
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:11 am

I'm stuck in Melbourne for the next few days. I came over for a long weekend to see the Grand Prix. That was cancelled and now the Government has made it so I'd have to quarantine for two weeks once I get back home.

Also quite a few of the supermarkets here are starting to run out of stuff.

Maybe the quarantine period will give me a chance to get up to date with the 737MAX and Brexit threads. :stirthepot:

melpax wrote:
The building next to my office has a few floors occupied by one of the big 4 Aussie banks. Our complex (a group of 5 office towers in MEL) also has the head offices of the NBN & Tabcorp (a large gambling/betting company). The bank employees were apparently sent a text message at 6.30 on Thursday night telling them not to come into the office 'until further notice'. NBN & Tabcorp also held a teleworking 'dress rehersal' on Thursday. The food court & cafe operators are quite nervous at the moment....

https://www.theage.com.au/business/comp ... 549ba.html


I'm right next to that building. Docklands is fantastic. Will be interesting to see how crowded it is compared to normal tomorrow morning.
First to fly the 787-9
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1302
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:29 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Sardinia, Italy, (the homebase region for defunct Air Italy) is dealing with several Covid19 outbreaks, including one in Nuoro where they need to shut down a hospital after 15 medical staff have been found to be infected.

The tally is increasing very fast, now over 35 cases, despite that the island is home to only 1 million inhabitants.
The big problem of Sardinia is that a majority of the population is over 40 years old, with 7 elderly for every child.
The virus has first been detected in people returning from conventions in Northern Italy, PM Conte had rejected earlier requests of the regional governmnet to shut down ports and airports. Currently, the island is isolated (in theory) with the last flights still operating but it's expected that airports and ports will be closed as was previously requested.
A retired man who arrived from Northern Italy to stay at his vacation home in Sardinia a few days ago, has been intercepted by police and may be charged after he was found roaming in bars in his towns despite the requirement for 14 days of self-isolation.

Hundreds of people are in isolation monitoring their condition and awaiting test results after they came in contact with confirmed cases.

https://www.lanuovasardegna.it/nuoro/cr ... 1.38578448

https://www.lanuovasardegna.it/ricerca? ... 20sardegna


Concerning the above, Sardinia has received special status by the Italian government, with the minister of transport granting the Region's request to shut down all transportation to and from the island.
Only trailers carrying cargo are allowed aboard ships, trucks with their drivers are not allowed on board, the trailers need to be met by trucks on the other side, a practice that was common to avoid that truck drivers would have to sail along with the cargo.

Air and maritime transport of persons has been shut down, effectively becoming the first completely isolated large region in Europe.

Sardinia has 53 cases of whom 2 passed away today and are currently on a very aggressive lockdown wherein people have to fill the government form even for a stroll out of their homes, with law enforcement all over the place to enforce it.

https://www.lanuovasardegna.it/regione/ ... 1.38593123
 
kalvado
Posts: 2862
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:45 am

Derico wrote:
We can shut down all the schools on the planet, all the sports events, all the crowded restaurants and concerts. We can stop flying, cruising, riding mass transport. We can keep 2 meters distance.

To what end?

Let's get real here, preventing people from getting the virus is not solving the issue. The lack of immunity remains. Yes, it buys some time, but these measures cannot go one for over 8 weeks. The economy of the world and the sanity of the world cannot withstand it.

So why has there been no talk of an ultimate "Manhattan Project + Burj Dubai + Eurotunnel + Egyptian Pyramids + Roman road" project, where all the nations of the world pour something in the vicinity of 12 zero sums to find either a vaccine, or a palliative treatment that drops the mortality rate to under 0.5%, or a medicine that cures it, or even just millions of ICU units that can be portable and taken from region to region as the epidemic peaks in different areas at different times, within two or three months? The point of buying time is to find the way to drop the death rate or create immunization.... but if the money is not going to that goal, then it's all for naught.

Idea is to break out-of-control spreading chains, and go back to mid-february with only a few hidden cases. And handle it with due diligence this time, not allowing to flare out.

And no amount of cash can help 9 women to carry a baby in 1 month.
 
melpax
Posts: 2048
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:54 pm

zkojq wrote:

I'm right next to that building. Docklands is fantastic. Will be interesting to see how crowded it is compared to normal tomorrow morning.


Certainly will be. On the bright side, I might actually be able to get a parking spot at the train station.

My employer has been tight-lipped about what our contingency plans are, but I assume they have plans in place.

Will no doubt be some more news on this in the morning....
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
petertenthije
Posts: 3927
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2001 10:00 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:12 pm

Some good news, the universities of Rotterdam and Utrecht have found what appears to be a human anti-body to the Coronoa virus.

It's stiill a long way from a cure though. The results have not yet been peer reviewed, or tested on humans. The latter alone will take months.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.987958v1
Attamottamotta!
 
marcelh
Posts: 1030
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:41 pm

petertenthije wrote:
Some good news, the universities of Rotterdam and Utrecht have found what appears to be a human anti-body to the Coronoa virus.

It's stiill a long way from a cure though. The results have not yet been peer reviewed, or tested on humans. The latter alone will take months.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.987958v1


The vultures are already at the hoizon....
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article206555143/Corona-USA-will-Zugriff-auf-deutsche-Impfstoff-Firma.html In German.

"The Tübingen-based company CureVac is researching a corona vaccine under high pressure. According to WELT AM SONNTAG information, the US government wants to secure the rights to it exclusively. The German government is trying to prevent this."
 
B777LRF
Posts: 2703
Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2008 4:23 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:51 pm

Denmark introduces wage compensation for the private sector

Private companies may receive wage compensation if they send employees home, in an effort to reduce lay-offs. The compensation goes into effect on the 9th of March, and is tentatively set to end on the 9th of June.

The compensation will be up to 75% of monthly salary, limited to DKK 23K (USD 3.400) for fixed monthly salaries and 26K (USD 3.700) for hourly paid. The compensation is only applicable if companies send their staff home without laying them off. The balance of the salary will still be paid be the employers, but it's a massive help to the private sector.

This is a tri-party agreement between the government and the organisations of employers (DI) and employees (LO).

https://www.dr.dk/ligetil/forstaa-nyhed ... uedes-loen

This agreement comes on top of releasing the "anti cyclic fund", which is a fund built up by the banks since 2009, taken from their annual profits, and is earmarked for private enterprise seeking loans from their banks. Further packages aimed at small (owner-operator) companies are coming. Additional support for the tourism and hospitality sector (hotels, transportation, restaurants, event organisers) is also in the making, as that sector will be virtually standing still for at least the next month.

Financing this hasn't been settled yet, I guess that some time in the (hopefully not too distant) future income taxes will be raised for a period of time, allowing the state to recoup some or all of the billions it will spend, allowing people to maintain their jobs and salaries. Which is a very fair deal if you ask me.

As someone who's working in the aviation industry, my nightly sleeps just got a whole lot better.
Signature. You just read one.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:34 pm

petertenthije wrote:
Some good news, the universities of Rotterdam and Utrecht have found what appears to be a human anti-body to the Coronoa virus.

It's stiill a long way from a cure though. The results have not yet been peer reviewed, or tested on humans. The latter alone will take months.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.987958v1


About every decent university lab in the world would have already isolated workable antibodies by now, these Dutch universities are just looking for a moment of fame. Even if the perfect antibody is identified, it's another thing to produce working monoclonal intravenous infusions at any meaningful scale as you will need a lot of plasma.
A working vaccine will be a much more efficient method.
Also, with infections hitting a large portion of the population, the plasma itself could be infected unknowingly, resulting in a worsening or zero sum effect, plus the risk of other infections.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:55 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
I went out this morning (Paris). I couldn't enter the first supermarket because it was full. Sunday 9 AM. I went to another (smaller) supermarket and people started yelling to each other in the queue.

I notice that panic is starting to take over the city. Completely different picture from yesterday. I went yesterday morning to the supermarket and everything was fine and not crowded at all. It seems France is 2-3 days behind Spain and about a week behind Italy.

Ironically (granted I live in an area with quite a few Chinese people and other immigrants), it seems that white French Parisians do not care much. I think I was the only "white" person I crossed this morning with a mask, while every other Asian person I crossed had one (and most Arabs too). I assume this is because Chinese and Arabs have connections to China, Italy or Spain which are already under a complete lockdown. Your average arrogant Parisian (that thinks he or she is above this virus) will have a hard landing!. Not to mention so many people that will lose their job in Paris in the fashion/luxury/tourism industry.


Yes too many French people are taking this too lightly. That's exactly what the Prime Minister said last night. However about the masks, I believe it's cultural. Wearing masks is common in Asia for various reasons, and totally unheard of in France. So Asian people are used to it, and probably have some masks at home. Now there is absolutely no way to buy a mask in the whole of Europe basically.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:12 pm

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... -that-out/

Here is the basic epidemiology science that political leaders in Washington State and the Seattle metro area are using as they make decisions. The scientists are incorporating scientific information from China, Japan etc as to what control measures seem to work. They are putting on long days as they work to reduce margins of error. This work also will be useful to the rest of the US and to the world. It is an international enterprise. Many nations are contributing science and moneyto these projects.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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Aesma
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:14 pm

marcelh wrote:
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article206555143/Corona-USA-will-Zugriff-auf-deutsche-Impfstoff-Firma.html In German.

"The Tübingen-based company CureVac is researching a corona vaccine under high pressure. According to WELT AM SONNTAG information, the US government wants to secure the rights to it exclusively. The German government is trying to prevent this."

America First....

If true, we know who our enemy is....


I don't see how the German government can't easily stop this nonsense.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
vc10
Posts: 1431
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:21 pm

https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cou ... profile/un

Living in the UK and being over 70, I am rather more affected by this problem than perhaps other age groups are, however during the northern Hemisphere winter "Influenza and Pneumonia " seems to kill thousands every year with governments only taking { compared to what is happen now] only minor precautions.

The above site gives lots of information of death rates in loads of countries and scroll down and you will find a page giving the the numbers in the different countries who have died per year from " Influenza and Pneumonia " based i believe on the winter of 2017/18 figures. If the site is not worth relying on,or i am interpreting the figures incorrectly please let me know .

Foe example it would seem that during that period

Italy deaths from this cause was 13,000
UK deaths from this cause was 32,000
USA 80,000

I am sure this old git has read it wrong,
 
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Aesma
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:32 pm

Well in this case "doing nothing" will kill 10 to 50 times more people, are you OK with that ? Then the healthcare system will be so overwhelmed that more people will also die from everything else, strokes, heart attacks, cancer...
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:53 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
StuckinCMHland wrote:
For those of you who live in Ohio, I have a question.

The head of the Ohio Department of Health (who had an above the fold, rather flattering story written about her in the Columbus Dispatch on Saturday 3/14), changed a lot of minds in political leaders in the state by saying on Thursday 3/12 there are at least 100,000 people who have the virus in the state. With respect, there had been only 5 cases reported on Thursday and 13 as this morning, and not many positive tests for it.

Does anyone know where she got the 100,000 number?.


It is perfectly logical. You just have to check the number of celebrities that got Coronavirus. From the wives of the presidents of Spain and Canada (Pedro Sánchez and Trudeau), to Tom Hanks. Many ministers in France, Spain and Italy got it. And those are people who have all the means to avoid this!

The only difference between Tom Hanks and your average Joe in Ohio is that Tom Hanks has the means to get a test in minutes and pay whatever it is needed. If there are no more cases it is simply because there are not enough tests.


No, there is absolutely no logic in either the health official (now we see why filtering the news from federal officials was enacted), nor your statistical analysis. Celebrities and world leaders are far, far more exposed to potential carriers travelling around the world than Joe Schmo in central Ohio. Nothing like spreading more fear though. Currently, Ohio has ~26 confirmed. BTW, I know people who had NO trouble getting tested. Low-cost/no-cost drive up testing is currently available around the country.

..... the leading Ohio overall health formal now admits her claim was not primarily based in science.

“I am not expressing there are unquestionably for specified 100,000 individuals. I’m declaring I am guesstimating. If I am guesstimating neighborhood distribute, that’s my very best quantity,” she mentioned Friday, the Day by day Caller News Foundation claimed.

Dr. Trevor Bedford, a scientist who specializes in vaccines and infectious diseases, pushed back again against Acton’s declare.
https://abc14news.com/2020/03/14/top-of ... stimating/

marcelh wrote:
The vultures are already at the hoizon....
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article206555143/Corona-USA-will-Zugriff-auf-deutsche-Impfstoff-Firma.html In German.

"The Tübingen-based company CureVac is researching a corona vaccine under high pressure. According to WELT AM SONNTAG information, the US government wants to secure the rights to it exclusively. The German government is trying to prevent this."


I don't believe that for a second. As if German media is not just as guilty (sometimes more) as others in mis-quoting or using quotes out of context to paint a negative picture of the US and make money from headlines around the world. Think about it, vaccines can be created anywhere, from wherever the research originated. The question to ask about the credibility of this claim is WHY? It would be no skin off anybody's nose if this was manufactured for others. I call BS on the "exclusive" claim, and any logical, regular reader of the news should as well. The whole idea is just stupid.
 
Olddog
Posts: 1519
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:33 pm

Found a convenient link for the numbers. Site is in french but Numbers are easy to read:
https://coronavirus.politologue.com/

Numbers are updated roughly every day. The source for the data seems to be from john hopkins so an english source should be available if you can't stand french :)
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:39 pm

Olddog wrote:
Found a convenient link for the numbers. Site is in french but Numbers are easy to read:
https://coronavirus.politologue.com/

Numbers are updated roughly every day. The source for the data seems to be from john hopkins so an english source should be available if you can't stand french :)


I think this link originally posted by somebody else has been more current. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ The numbers on your link are a day old.
Last edited by mham001 on Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 12358
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:40 pm

Absolute shitstorm in the 12 largest US airports today. In attempting to stop ‘the foreign virus’ from entering from Europe and giving USCIS an unworkable 48-hour heads up, the White House created total chaos with tens of thousands of travelers stuck for hours in close quarters while clearing customs. There will likely be thousands more cases newly-introduced thanks to their idiotic buffoonery. Monkeys could have planned this better!

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-51895246
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:45 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Absolute shitstorm in the 12 largest US airports today. In attempting to stop ‘the foreign virus’ from entering from Europe and giving USCIS an unworkable 48-hour heads up, the White House created total chaos with tens of thousands of travelers stuck for hours in close quarters while clearing customs. There will likely be thousands more cases newly-introduced thanks to their idiotic buffoonery. Monkeys could have planned this better!

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-51895246


What would you have done differently? As if they weren't just as exposed ON THE AIRPLANE!

Just admit it, anything they do is WRONG, right?
 
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Grizzly410
Posts: 423
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:45 pm

Aesma wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
I went out this morning (Paris). I couldn't enter the first supermarket because it was full. Sunday 9 AM. I went to another (smaller) supermarket and people started yelling to each other in the queue.

I notice that panic is starting to take over the city. Completely different picture from yesterday. I went yesterday morning to the supermarket and everything was fine and not crowded at all. It seems France is 2-3 days behind Spain and about a week behind Italy.

Ironically (granted I live in an area with quite a few Chinese people and other immigrants), it seems that white French Parisians do not care much. I think I was the only "white" person I crossed this morning with a mask, while every other Asian person I crossed had one (and most Arabs too). I assume this is because Chinese and Arabs have connections to China, Italy or Spain which are already under a complete lockdown. Your average arrogant Parisian (that thinks he or she is above this virus) will have a hard landing!. Not to mention so many people that will lose their job in Paris in the fashion/luxury/tourism industry.


Yes too many French people are taking this too lightly. That's exactly what the Prime Minister said last night. However about the masks, I believe it's cultural. Wearing masks is common in Asia for various reasons, and totally unheard of in France. So Asian people are used to it, and probably have some masks at home. Now there is absolutely no way to buy a mask in the whole of Europe basically.


For what I hear from my friends in france, a significant amount of french are taking it lightly.
When I compare with Spain where I live, which have more or less the same policy right now, the difference is HUGE. Spanish seems to be very, very respectful of the prevention message.
I guess we'll have to wait 4-5 days to start seeing if there is consequences...
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
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bgm
Posts: 2453
Joined: Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:37 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:54 pm

mham001 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Absolute shitstorm in the 12 largest US airports today. In attempting to stop ‘the foreign virus’ from entering from Europe and giving USCIS an unworkable 48-hour heads up, the White House created total chaos with tens of thousands of travelers stuck for hours in close quarters while clearing customs. There will likely be thousands more cases newly-introduced thanks to their idiotic buffoonery. Monkeys could have planned this better!

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-51895246


What would you have done differently? As if they weren't just as exposed ON THE AIRPLANE!

Just admit it, anything they do is WRONG, right?


At least on the plane, each group of people would have been separated. Now they are all crowded together in one big group. Absolutely brilliant strategy, bravo(!)
Really? Four more years of this?
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5758
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:56 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Yes too many French people are taking this too lightly. That's exactly what the Prime Minister said last night. However about the masks, I believe it's cultural. Wearing masks is common in Asia for various reasons, and totally unheard of in France. So Asian people are used to it, and probably have some masks at home. Now there is absolutely no way to buy a mask in the whole of Europe basically.


For what I hear from my friends in france, a significant amount of french are taking it lightly.
When I compare with Spain where I live, which have more or less the same policy right now, the difference is HUGE. Spanish seems to be very, very respectful of the prevention message.
I guess we'll have to wait 4-5 days to start seeing if there is consequences...


I must say I am not particularly surprised at how badly managed the whole thing is in France.

After all France is managed from Paris and ruled by Parisians (or people who has been living for a long time in Paris) and their mental bias. And Paris' lifestyle is the opposite of the "quarantine prepper". People in Paris live (usually) in small flats (with little storage) and live very much outdoors (restaurants, bars, cultural events, etc. after all that is why the pay the crazy Paris prices and smell of pee everywhere in the streets :) ). They think that "plagues" and "pandemics" is something that only "dumb" people that vote Trump and live in Texas believe in (or "dumb" people in rural France). They are "sophisticated" Parisians after all!. So the coronavirus goes completely against their way of life. And like anything in life, when reality goes against someone's lifestyle so deeply, most people prefer to ignore it until they must accept the reality because there is no other way out.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 12358
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:00 pm

mham001 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Absolute shitstorm in the 12 largest US airports today. In attempting to stop ‘the foreign virus’ from entering from Europe and giving USCIS an unworkable 48-hour heads up, the White House created total chaos with tens of thousands of travelers stuck for hours in close quarters while clearing customs. There will likely be thousands more cases newly-introduced thanks to their idiotic buffoonery. Monkeys could have planned this better!

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-51895246


What would you have done differently? As if they weren't just as exposed ON THE AIRPLANE!

Just admit it, anything they do is WRONG, right?


No, everything they do is unprofessional. Why defend incompetence? It makes no sense.

Do differently? Lots of options, already working elsewhere:

Singapore - pax from high-risk countries deplane at remote stands and have temps taken - symptomatic went by bus to quarantine. Those cleared get bussed to terminal for customs procedures.

Exposure on the plane is much less likely due to air filtration, mask use, and heightened pax hand and cabin cleaning. Tired people in customs lines for hours on end will lose vigilance and USCIS was not prepared to provide masks and hand sanitizer at all facilities according to pax on Twitter.

Most important would have been giving USCIS time to rejig their staffing schedules and facilities to handle the onslaught. Anyone managing significant operations knows 48 hours is nothing.
Last edited by Aaron747 on Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:00 pm

MSMinHKG wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Another point to consider is the spread of the virus by animals. We have already seen that a dog in HK was infected and showed symptoms. So, considering that pigeons, cats, etc. are free to roam and spread the virus, it won't be enough to only confine humans. In fact, it may be become inevitable to keep pets indoors or even ban having pets.


One dog did get infected, but it did not develop symptoms. I would not extrapolate from this that all animals are potential carriers/vectors.

Source: https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202 ... 200670.htm


Why take the risk?? I am sure in a couple of weeks from now we will hear about animal-to-human transmission. Government have no choice but to ban pets and either force them to keep them indoors or euthanize them all.
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 6233
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:03 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Absolute shitstorm in the 12 largest US airports today. .... tens of thousands of travelers stuck for hours in close quarters while clearing customs.


Sounds like any other day, post-9/11.
 
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speedygonzales
Posts: 668
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:14 pm

Perspective from the leader of the WH pandemic office until Trump and Bolton closed it:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/ ... story.html
Ignorance kills. :tombstone:
 
noviorbis77
Posts: 1030
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2017 3:23 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:17 pm

Italy: Population - 60m
Coronavirus cases - 15K
Deaths - 1K

UK: Population: 66m
Coronavirus cases - 798
Deaths - 21

Italy had their first confirmed case 24hrs before the UK. The strategy is working.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 572
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:25 pm

Aesma wrote:
Well in this case "doing nothing" will kill 10 to 50 times more people, are you OK with that ? Then the healthcare system will be so overwhelmed that more people will also die from everything else, strokes, heart attacks, cancer...


Where are all the dead bodies in Milan?

What is the true infected fatality rate?

Is it worse than influenza? (Can only be answered after we know the true infected fatality rate)

In Norway and Sweden - which combined have more positive cases than the USA - the deaths : covid positive rate is 0.2%. Could it be that 0.2% is closer to the true deaths: infection rate than other countries that are testing primarily in the ICU?

Not discussing medical questions at all... this is a simple dead body count measurement question. Anyone with a STEM background (and some without) should be able to handle it.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:34 pm

Why has my post be deleted??

Here we go again:

Germany closes borders: https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-lates ... a-52777896
Schengen is all but dead now.
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 11828
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:46 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Schengen is all but dead now.


don't execrate.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:53 pm

Germany after speaking against the US has done the same closing their borders https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51897069
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
PPVRA
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:54 pm

Aesma wrote:
marcelh wrote:
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article206555143/Corona-USA-will-Zugriff-auf-deutsche-Impfstoff-Firma.html In German.

"The Tübingen-based company CureVac is researching a corona vaccine under high pressure. According to WELT AM SONNTAG information, the US government wants to secure the rights to it exclusively. The German government is trying to prevent this."

America First....

If true, we know who our enemy is....


I don't see how the German government can't easily stop this nonsense.


Sounds like an exaggerated story. Here’s a link in English:

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03 ... y-usa.html
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:59 pm

Norway has also closed it's borders completely. The border with Sweden and Finland was left open until recently. Now it's closed. Everyone who's been to Sweden and Finland lately needs 14 days quarantine.

https://direkte.vg.no/coronaviruset/new ... 0012ce15df

Norway is stopping testing for COVID-19 for everyone except those who are critically ill with symptoms, or have essential job functions that are critical for society to work. Like medical personell, infrastructure personell and so on.

So the numbers out of Norway now will be far lower than the actual number.

https://www.vg.no/spesial/2020/corona-v ... tent=row-1
 
M564038
Posts: 378
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:49 pm

It is already several days since they stopped testing.

JetBuddy wrote:
Norway has also closed it's borders completely. The border with Sweden and Finland was left open until recently. Now it's closed. Everyone who's been to Sweden and Finland lately needs 14 days quarantine.

https://direkte.vg.no/coronaviruset/new ... 0012ce15df

Norway is stopping testing for COVID-19 for everyone except those who are critically ill with symptoms, or have essential job functions that are critical for society to work. Like medical personell, infrastructure personell and so on.

So the numbers out of Norway now will be far lower than the actual number.

https://www.vg.no/spesial/2020/corona-v ... tent=row-1
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:55 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Well in this case "doing nothing" will kill 10 to 50 times more people, are you OK with that ? Then the healthcare system will be so overwhelmed that more people will also die from everything else, strokes, heart attacks, cancer...


Where are all the dead bodies in Milan?

What is the true infected fatality rate?

Is it worse than influenza? (Can only be answered after we know the true infected fatality rate)

In Norway and Sweden - which combined have more positive cases than the USA - the deaths : covid positive rate is 0.2%. Could it be that 0.2% is closer to the true deaths: infection rate than other countries that are testing primarily in the ICU?

Not discussing medical questions at all... this is a simple dead body count measurement question. Anyone with a STEM background (and some without) should be able to handle it.


It's not that simple when there aren't enough tests. We know people are dying of a viral pneumonia without being diagnosed. Case fatality rates stay suppressed until after the peak because this disease spreads rapidly but death usually takes weeks to happen. Case fatality rates are going up, not down, as testing is expanded.

Granted, the world is reacting more fearfully than I ever expected, but I suspect it's because this is moving so much faster than any pandemic planning had planned for and nations are hitting their panic buttons and shutting things down until we can figure this thing out.
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:02 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
I went out this morning (Paris). I couldn't enter the first supermarket because it was full. Sunday 9 AM. I went to another (smaller) supermarket and people started yelling to each other in the queue.

I notice that panic is starting to take over the city. Completely different picture from yesterday. I went yesterday morning to the supermarket and everything was fine and not crowded at all. It seems France is 2-3 days behind Spain and about a week behind Italy.

Ironically (granted I live in an area with quite a few Chinese people and other immigrants), it seems that white French Parisians do not care much. I think I was the only "white" person I crossed this morning with a mask, while every other Asian person I crossed had one (and most Arabs too). I assume this is because Chinese and Arabs have connections to China, Italy or Spain which are already under a complete lockdown. Your average arrogant Parisian (that thinks he or she is above this virus) will have a hard landing!. Not to mention so many people that will lose their job in Paris in the fashion/luxury/tourism industry.


Yes too many French people are taking this too lightly. That's exactly what the Prime Minister said last night. However about the masks, I believe it's cultural. Wearing masks is common in Asia for various reasons, and totally unheard of in France. So Asian people are used to it, and probably have some masks at home. Now there is absolutely no way to buy a mask in the whole of Europe basically.


For what I hear from my friends in france, a significant amount of french are taking it lightly.
When I compare with Spain where I live, which have more or less the same policy right now, the difference is HUGE. Spanish seems to be very, very respectful of the prevention message.
I guess we'll have to wait 4-5 days to start seeing if there is consequences...

This illness takes 4 to 14 days to show symptoms and another 4 to 15 days more for the need for the hospital.

This must be taken seriously. Every day of delay can increase cases by 40%. I think we'll see in 2 to 4 weeks the Spanish strategy was strikingly wiser. Wuhan is only partially out of a quarantine that started 53 days ago. My back of the envelope math says every two days of delay extends the lockdown by 3 days. Hmmm......


Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:11 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Absolute shitstorm in the 12 largest US airports today. In attempting to stop ‘the foreign virus’ from entering from Europe and giving USCIS an unworkable 48-hour heads up, the White House created total chaos with tens of thousands of travelers stuck for hours in close quarters while clearing customs. There will likely be thousands more cases newly-introduced thanks to their idiotic buffoonery. Monkeys could have planned this better!

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-51895246


I have always wondered, why you never cast any 'criticism' on China. And now this post tells it all. You seem to question 'the foreign virus', as if its not foreign, and perhaps questioning those who blame it on China.

Since the start you were very good blaming the US, Japan, etc anyone but China. What's up with that? Why is this forum so muted on actually blaming and criticizing the people who actually started this? is it because of PC?

And talk about 48 hours heads up, the "Super professional" German government will be closing their borders with less than 24 hour notice (something unprecedented) if you have ever crossed the borders of Germany in a car like I have, you will notice that there aren't such a thing as posts or areas where to screen those entering Germany because they removed that many years ago. It will be an interesting sight of chaos tomorrow when all the roads entering Germany from France, Switzerland and Austria etc will be with hours longs traffic jams with people who would like to get in.

I understand you need to keep these criticism alive, the world is living a crisis like no other, no one has ever expected this to be like this. China downplayed this for months, and we all 'thought' it was like the 'flu' when it wasn't, no one was prepared, even if we keep it up with hating Trump for his administration missteps and blunders, all of those European countries which the left and the liberals tell us we need to be, f...d this up very bad, despite them being 'more professional' at what they do. Or so we thought.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
StuckinCMHland
Posts: 232
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:29 pm

mham001 wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
StuckinCMHland wrote:
For those of you who live in Ohio, I have a question.

The head of the Ohio Department of Health (who had an above the fold, rather flattering story written about her in the Columbus Dispatch on Saturday 3/14), changed a lot of minds in political leaders in the state by saying on Thursday 3/12 there are at least 100,000 people who have the virus in the state. With respect, there had been only 5 cases reported on Thursday and 13 as this morning, and not many positive tests for it.

Does anyone know where she got the 100,000 number?.


It is perfectly logical. You just have to check the number of celebrities that got Coronavirus. From the wives of the presidents of Spain and Canada (Pedro Sánchez and Trudeau), to Tom Hanks. Many ministers in France, Spain and Italy got it. And those are people who have all the means to avoid this!

The only difference between Tom Hanks and your average Joe in Ohio is that Tom Hanks has the means to get a test in minutes and pay whatever it is needed. If there are no more cases it is simply because there are not enough tests.


No, there is absolutely no logic in either the health official (now we see why filtering the news from federal officials was enacted), nor your statistical analysis. Celebrities and world leaders are far, far more exposed to potential carriers travelling around the world than Joe Schmo in central Ohio. Nothing like spreading more fear though. Currently, Ohio has ~26 confirmed. BTW, I know people who had NO trouble getting tested. Low-cost/no-cost drive up testing is currently available around the country.

..... the leading Ohio overall health formal now admits her claim was not primarily based in science.

“I am not expressing there are unquestionably for specified 100,000 individuals. I’m declaring I am guesstimating. If I am guesstimating neighborhood distribute, that’s my very best quantity,” she mentioned Friday, the Day by day Caller News Foundation claimed.

Dr. Trevor Bedford, a scientist who specializes in vaccines and infectious diseases, pushed back again against Acton’s declare.
https://abc14news.com/2020/03/14/top-of ... stimating/

marcelh wrote:
The vultures are already at the hoizon....
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article206555143/Corona-USA-will-Zugriff-auf-deutsche-Impfstoff-Firma.html In German.

"The Tübingen-based company CureVac is researching a corona vaccine under high pressure. According to WELT AM SONNTAG information, the US government wants to secure the rights to it exclusively. The German government is trying to prevent this."


I don't believe that for a second. As if German media is not just as guilty (sometimes more) as others in mis-quoting or using quotes out of context to paint a negative picture of the US and make money from headlines around the world. Think about it, vaccines can be created anywhere, from wherever the research originated. The question to ask about the credibility of this claim is WHY? It would be no skin off anybody's nose if this was manufactured for others. I call BS on the "exclusive" claim, and any logical, regular reader of the news should as well. The whole idea is just stupid.



To add to this questionable action, the governor of the State of Ohio has just announced that all bars and restaurants in the state must close at 9:00 P.M. EST tonight and will be closed indefinitely. Carryout food is still legal for the moment, so you can probably get a cup of coffee at McDonald's or Starbucks in the morning.

The reason is that "we must have more social distance" or, 'we do not like your behavior so we will legally change it.'

Obviously safety is an issue, and this virus is a problem. But it seems that the ODH has caused the state government to panic enough that they are willing to severely damage the economy for an unproved benefit. More importantly, IMO this is a gross overreach of authority. I did not know I was living in mainland China, I thought I was living in the United States of America. If the state government had valid data that regulating basic behavior of people would save lives a case could be made for this action. They have no data, the ODH says it is taking this action based on historical data from the Spanish flu of 1918-19 that says this might help. Their justification for this action is questionable to say the least. But NBC seems to like what the Republican governor of the state is doing, he had a session on Meet the Press today.

https://www.dispatch.com/news/20200315/coronavirus-governor-orders-ohio-bars-restaurants-to-shut-down Here is an article from the Columbus Dispatch on the announcement, please feel to draw your own conclusions.
Last edited by StuckinCMHland on Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 13163
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:39 pm

Tomorrow a defense council (similar to UK cobra meeting) will decide on new measures for France, rumours are that the Paris region (Ile-de-France, where I live) and Grand Est region (where Strasbourg is) will be in total lockdown, nobody allowed outside without a good reason, similar to Italy, with the military in the streets to enforce it if necessary. The reason being hospitals/ICUs are already overwhelmed in these regions...and people are careless.

Source, in French, with pictures of people living pretty much as normal today : https://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/coronavi ... st-3955512

I just got a call from my boss (on a Sunday evening, quite unusual) to cancel previously discussed plans, nobody goes to the office, in my team everyone teleworks.

LCDFlight wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Well in this case "doing nothing" will kill 10 to 50 times more people, are you OK with that ? Then the healthcare system will be so overwhelmed that more people will also die from everything else, strokes, heart attacks, cancer...


Where are all the dead bodies in Milan?

What is the true infected fatality rate?

Is it worse than influenza? (Can only be answered after we know the true infected fatality rate)

In Norway and Sweden - which combined have more positive cases than the USA - the deaths : covid positive rate is 0.2%. Could it be that 0.2% is closer to the true deaths: infection rate than other countries that are testing primarily in the ICU?

Not discussing medical questions at all... this is a simple dead body count measurement question. Anyone with a STEM background (and some without) should be able to handle it.


The first problem is that hospitals are overwhelmed, are you denying this is happening ? People might take weeks to die, others need weeks in ICU to recover. This happens with influenza, but not at this scale.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:42 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Why has my post be deleted??

Here we go again:

Germany closes borders: https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-lates ... a-52777896
Schengen is all but dead now.


Closing borders in certain emergency cases is perfectly allowed in the Schengen treaty.

This is not what people mean when they want to close borders anyway, they still want people to be able to come in for tourism, business etc., just that there is a check when crossing the border. Here only people with a good reason (tourism isn't one, business I don't know) will be allowed through.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:45 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
mham001 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Absolute shitstorm in the 12 largest US airports today. In attempting to stop ‘the foreign virus’ from entering from Europe and giving USCIS an unworkable 48-hour heads up, the White House created total chaos with tens of thousands of travelers stuck for hours in close quarters while clearing customs. There will likely be thousands more cases newly-introduced thanks to their idiotic buffoonery. Monkeys could have planned this better!

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-51895246


What would you have done differently? As if they weren't just as exposed ON THE AIRPLANE!

Just admit it, anything they do is WRONG, right?


No, everything they do is unprofessional. Why defend incompetence? It makes no sense.

Do differently? Lots of options, already working elsewhere:

Singapore - pax from high-risk countries deplane at remote stands and have temps taken - symptomatic went by bus to quarantine. Those cleared get bussed to terminal for customs procedures.

Exposure on the plane is much less likely due to air filtration, mask use, and heightened pax hand and cabin cleaning. Tired people in customs lines for hours on end will lose vigilance and USCIS was not prepared to provide masks and hand sanitizer at all facilities according to pax on Twitter.

Most important would have been giving USCIS time to rejig their staffing schedules and facilities to handle the onslaught. Anyone managing significant operations knows 48 hours is nothing.


Yep, anything they do is WRONG. Just admit it. Have you ever stood on a tarmac in Chicago, JFK, Newark or Denver in early March? For hours? They needed more time? people like you would scream bloody murder "they aren't doing anything!!!". Just effing nutz. It's an apparent "emergency", these things are going to happen until it gets worked out. people will be inconvenienced, get used to it. But whiners like you will never shutup.

Aaron747 wrote:

No, everything they do is unprofessional.


Reasonable people will listen to Dr. Fauci for about 30 seconds and realize how silly your shrieking sounds. But keep it up, Trump will win in a landslide.

PPVRA wrote:

Sounds like an exaggerated story. Here’s a link in English:

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03 ... y-usa.html


Of course it was, it did not pass the smell test from the beginning. German journalism at its finest but it made headlines around the world and so accomplished its goal of casting everything Trump/US in a negative light. Leaked by a "German official". Tommy will be proud.

Interesting that the article says Trump, Pence and officials personally met with this company while they were supposedly "doing nothing".
 
kd9gy
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon May 21, 2012 4:18 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:00 pm

Illinois governor has also mandated all bars and restaurants close 'at the end of business Monday.' He didn't like all the socializing in the Chicago bars and taverns on Saturday - no one was paying any attention to 'social distancing.'
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:04 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:

I have always wondered, why you never cast any 'criticism' on China. And now this post tells it all. You seem to question 'the foreign virus', as if its not foreign, and perhaps questioning those who blame it on China.

Since the start you were very good blaming the US, Japan, etc anyone but China. What's up with that? Why is this forum so muted on actually blaming and criticizing the people who actually started this? is it because of PC?.


Glad you mentioned that. WHO's corruption plays a large part in the world's suffering today and all we get from the usual suspects is how Trump is causing all their agony.

Really, the links between China and the Director General of WHO and projects the Chinese are pushing in his country needs some serious investigation. If the US pulled stunts like China is getting away with and knowingly spread disease so negligently around the world, the government would be rightfully sued into oblivion (which raises some interesting questions...).

Coronavirus: How WHO Corruption Helped It Spread
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwFTZawOc9k

"but..but...TRUMP!"
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8358
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:16 pm

There are two safe assumptions. China is fudging the numbers and the rest of the world wasted the lead time.

Now, WHO calling it a pandemic, countries closing borders, closing schools, partial/full lockdowns are going to help only to a certain extent.

The trade and commerce losses would have been much smaller if this was stopped at China's borders.
All posts are just opinions.
 
M564038
Posts: 378
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:27 pm

This is just doing the same as every other civilized western society is doing right now.
We are all in the same boat, stop whining.

StuckinCMHland wrote:
mham001 wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:

It is perfectly logical. You just have to check the number of celebrities that got Coronavirus. From the wives of the presidents of Spain and Canada (Pedro Sánchez and Trudeau), to Tom Hanks. Many ministers in France, Spain and Italy got it. And those are people who have all the means to avoid this!

The only difference between Tom Hanks and your average Joe in Ohio is that Tom Hanks has the means to get a test in minutes and pay whatever it is needed. If there are no more cases it is simply because there are not enough tests.


No, there is absolutely no logic in either the health official (now we see why filtering the news from federal officials was enacted), nor your statistical analysis. Celebrities and world leaders are far, far more exposed to potential carriers travelling around the world than Joe Schmo in central Ohio. Nothing like spreading more fear though. Currently, Ohio has ~26 confirmed. BTW, I know people who had NO trouble getting tested. Low-cost/no-cost drive up testing is currently available around the country.

..... the leading Ohio overall health formal now admits her claim was not primarily based in science.

“I am not expressing there are unquestionably for specified 100,000 individuals. I’m declaring I am guesstimating. If I am guesstimating neighborhood distribute, that’s my very best quantity,” she mentioned Friday, the Day by day Caller News Foundation claimed.

Dr. Trevor Bedford, a scientist who specializes in vaccines and infectious diseases, pushed back again against Acton’s declare.
https://abc14news.com/2020/03/14/top-of ... stimating/

marcelh wrote:
The vultures are already at the hoizon....
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article206555143/Corona-USA-will-Zugriff-auf-deutsche-Impfstoff-Firma.html In German.

"The Tübingen-based company CureVac is researching a corona vaccine under high pressure. According to WELT AM SONNTAG information, the US government wants to secure the rights to it exclusively. The German government is trying to prevent this."


I don't believe that for a second. As if German media is not just as guilty (sometimes more) as others in mis-quoting or using quotes out of context to paint a negative picture of the US and make money from headlines around the world. Think about it, vaccines can be created anywhere, from wherever the research originated. The question to ask about the credibility of this claim is WHY? It would be no skin off anybody's nose if this was manufactured for others. I call BS on the "exclusive" claim, and any logical, regular reader of the news should as well. The whole idea is just stupid.



To add to this questionable action, the governor of the State of Ohio has just announced that all bars and restaurants in the state must close at 9:00 P.M. EST tonight and will be closed indefinitely. Carryout food is still legal for the moment, so you can probably get a cup of coffee at McDonald's or Starbucks in the morning.

The reason is that "we must have more social distance" or, 'we do not like your behavior so we will legally change it.'

Obviously safety is an issue, and this virus is a problem. But it seems that the ODH has caused the state government to panic enough that they are willing to severely damage the economy for an unproved benefit. More importantly, IMO this is a gross overreach of authority. I did not know I was living in mainland China, I thought I was living in the United States of America. If the state government had valid data that regulating basic behavior of people would save lives a case could be made for this action. They have no data, the ODH says it is taking this action based on historical data from the Spanish flu of 1918-19 that says this might help. Their justification for this action is questionable to say the least. But NBC seems to like what the Republican governor of the state is doing, he had a session on Meet the Press today.

https://www.dispatch.com/news/20200315/coronavirus-governor-orders-ohio-bars-restaurants-to-shut-down Here is an article from the Columbus Dispatch on the announcement, please feel to draw your own conclusions.
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8511
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:17 pm

The Countries With The Most Critical Care Beds Per Capita:
https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/21105/number-of-critical-care-beds-per-100000-inhabitants/

This may come in handy in the US. But hopefully it won’t get to this point....
Last edited by PPVRA on Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:25 pm, edited 4 times in total.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1302
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:18 pm

Italy is reporting some awful numbers, it gets worse every day.
3590 new cases, a 17% rise (yesterday it was 19,8%) to 24747 cases, out of 124899 tested, or about 20% positive rate.
368 additional deaths to 1809 total, a 25% rise. Number of healed persons increased by the almost the same at 369, for a total of 2335 persons.
1672 are fighting for their lives (+154)


In Italia, dall’inizio dell’epidemia di Coronavirus, 24.747 persone hanno contratto il virus Sars-CoV-2 (3.590 in più rispetto a ieri, la crescita percentuale è del 17%. Ieri era stata del 19,8%). Di queste, sono decedute 1.809 (+368 in giorno, +25%, ieri la crescita percentuale era stata del 19,8%) e sono guarite 2.335 (+369). 1.672 persone sono in terapia intensiva (+154). Attualmente i soggetti positivi sono 20.603 (il conto sale a 24.747 — come detto sopra — se nel computo ci sono anche i morti e i guariti).


https://www.corriere.it/salute/malattie ... aeee.shtml

This confirms the rate of increase that we calculated in early February for Wuhan, before they were test numbers limited.
A similar expansion rate is happening in Spain, Germany and France and other smaller European countries.

This is not good.

Europe currently has over 55.000 confirmed cases.

Projections for Europe as follows:

At a rate of +20% per day
-100.000 cases by March 19th
-1.000.000 cases by March 31st
-10.000.000 cases by April 13th

At a rate of +17% per day
-100.000 cases by March 19th
-1.000.000 cases by April 3rd
-10.000.000 cases by April 18th
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 13163
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:27 pm

PPVRA wrote:
The Countries With The Most Critical Care Beds Per Capita:
https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/21105/number-of-critical-care-beds-per-100000-inhabitants/

This may come in handy in the US. But hopefully it won’t get to this point....


Do you have access to such a bed, for potentially 2-3 weeks, if you're poor, without insurance ?
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8511
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:29 pm

Aesma wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
The Countries With The Most Critical Care Beds Per Capita:
https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/21105/number-of-critical-care-beds-per-100000-inhabitants/

This may come in handy in the US. But hopefully it won’t get to this point....


Do you have access to such a bed, for potentially 2-3 weeks, if you're poor, without insurance ?


Yes, you do.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19123
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:41 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
Italy: Population - 60m
Coronavirus cases - 15K
Deaths - 1K

UK: Population: 66m
Coronavirus cases - 798
Deaths - 21

Italy had their first confirmed case 24hrs before the UK. The strategy is working.


Your figures are out of date. Latest UK infection count is nearly 1,400 with 35 deaths. “The strategy” only appears to be working because we’re now doing so few tests. If you don’t actually test and count, then the numbers will look low. Smoke and mirrors.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
M564038
Posts: 378
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:44 pm

You bet it is one of the golden threads!
You don’t need to go many pages back before right wing crazies meet themselves spouting stuff that even in this short hindsight is proven delusional and crazy.

But even that doesn’t bite, does it?

The average Trumpsters capability of cognitive dissonance is far beyond what anyone could even predict in their worst fears just a few short years ago.

mham001 wrote:
bgm wrote:
mham001 wrote:

See, you cannot get through the first sentence without taking things out of context to make political hay. Really despicable.


No, I am calling out the President and this administration for failing to do their job. You bet I am going to criticize his piss poor job he's doing. I have a lot of friends and family in the US who are in the high risk category and are placed in unnecessarily higher danger due to the inaction of this administration. If that butthurts you, then that's your problem.

FFS even Trump's address to the nation was a cluster full of inaccuracies and confusing information. Just what the public need, right? The only concern he genuinely seem to have was about the bit of ink he had on his shirt. :sarcastic:

The US will be worse hit than Europe by this because:

1) the delay and wholly inadequate rate of testing
2) the sheer number of uninsured people
3) the sheer number of people who are already very unhealthy with preexisting conditions that will make this virus a lot more lethal
4) the large number of people in low paid jobs with no sick leave
5) people will not obey quarantine laws

Italy has 1, possibly 3 (many old people), and maybe later 5, and look at the mess they're in.


Where are you sitting now? I expect you are as usual throwing stones from a glass house. Or projecting your hopes.

And NO, Trump did not say it was a "hoax". That you continue to use that talking point proves you either ignorant or blinded byTRS. I have a good idea of which.

Anybody trying to crow about another's situation at this time is destined to eat crow later. This will prove to be yet another golden thread once it ages and we can reflect on who said what when. This forum is full of them.

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