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Waterbomber2
Posts: 1298
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:45 pm

scbriml wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Italy: Population - 60m
Coronavirus cases - 15K
Deaths - 1K

UK: Population: 66m
Coronavirus cases - 798
Deaths - 21

Italy had their first confirmed case 24hrs before the UK. The strategy is working.


Your figures are out of date. Latest UK infection count is nearly 1,400 with 35 deaths. “The strategy” only appears to be working because we’re now doing so few tests. If you don’t actually test and count, then the numbers will look low. Smoke and mirrors.


Glad to read your new perspective.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:50 pm

Even in France we're only testing if it's basically certain you have it. So either if you have pneumonia, or if you have been in close contact with someone who tested positive.

More and more National Assembly members are testing positive for that reason, latest one is Christian Jacob, the leader of the biggest opposition party in France, Les Républicains.
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scbriml
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:51 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Italy: Population - 60m
Coronavirus cases - 15K
Deaths - 1K

UK: Population: 66m
Coronavirus cases - 798
Deaths - 21

Italy had their first confirmed case 24hrs before the UK. The strategy is working.


Your figures are out of date. Latest UK infection count is nearly 1,400 with 35 deaths. “The strategy” only appears to be working because we’re now doing so few tests. If you don’t actually test and count, then the numbers will look low. Smoke and mirrors.


Glad to read your new perspective.


Insufficient testing is counterproductive as is over testing. I just saw an item on the evening news here about a drive-through testing station in the US, with a massive queue of cars. Being tested if you feel OK and getting a negative result means nothing if 10 minutes later you go to a supermarket, or Starbucks, or a mall...
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trpmb6
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:19 pm

Aesma wrote:
Even in France we're only testing if it's basically certain you have it. So either if you have pneumonia, or if you have been in close contact with someone who tested positive.

More and more National Assembly members are testing positive for that reason, latest one is Christian Jacob, the leader of the biggest opposition party in France, Les Républicains.



I've been saying this all along,which is why I still believe the numbers are way out of bed from reality (on the total infected side). We are continually told of how contagious it is and that many show asymptomatic symptoms. Yet the only confirmed cases are the ones that we actually have tested (I know that sounds stupid to say but it's like people somehow forget that..)..
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 12341
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:19 pm

mham001 wrote:
Reasonable people will listen to Dr. Fauci for about 30 seconds and realize how silly your shrieking sounds.


Thank you for making my point for me. I was talking about 45, not the NIH director. Reasonable people (as in people who understand logic and reason) *were* listening to Dr. Fauci the whole time - the WH did not start implementing his urgent suggestions until the last couple weeks. I saw CDC’s Dr. Redfield tell CNN in mid-February that this virus had too many unknowns and would be a challenge throughout the year.

https://thehill.com/regulation/healthca ... s-year?amp

For weeks instead of ‘shrieking’ those of us in professionally-run organizations have seen the signs the WH was screwing the pooch - repeatedly saying the decisionmaking was clearly done with an attitude avoiding alarmism when it SHOULD be based entirely on the science. People who don’t understand the science should get out of the way.

Stop defending incompetence. One Never Trump conservative writer did us the favor of listing how silly 45’s attitude sounds now:

January 22:
Trump: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”

February 26:
Trump: “[The number of people infected is] going very substantially down, not up.” “The 15 [cases] within a couple of days, is going to be down to zero.”

March 2:
Trump on a coronavirus vaccine: “I’ve heard very quick numbers, that of months.” [Note: Immunologist Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has repeatedly said that a vaccine will not be available for a year or year and a half.]

March 6:
Trump: “Anybody who wants a test gets a test.” [Note. This was a lie at the time and remains dangerously untrue today. The previous day, Vice President Mike Pence said, “We don’t have enough tests today to meet what we anticipate will be the demand going forward.”]

March 9:
Trump: “So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths.”


https://thebulwark.com/the-coronavirus- ... ald-trump/

The last one demonstrates not listening at any meeting with Drs. Fauci and Redfield, who stated repeatedly this is not comparable to the flu and that indicated morbidity is 10x higher. You are defending incompetence, full stop.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 12341
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:27 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Absolute shitstorm in the 12 largest US airports today. In attempting to stop ‘the foreign virus’ from entering from Europe and giving USCIS an unworkable 48-hour heads up, the White House created total chaos with tens of thousands of travelers stuck for hours in close quarters while clearing customs. There will likely be thousands more cases newly-introduced thanks to their idiotic buffoonery. Monkeys could have planned this better!

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-51895246


I have always wondered, why you never cast any 'criticism' on China. And now this post tells it all. You seem to question 'the foreign virus', as if its not foreign, and perhaps questioning those who blame it on China.

Since the start you were very good blaming the US, Japan, etc anyone but China. What's up with that? Why is this forum so muted on actually blaming and criticizing the people who actually started this? is it because of PC?

And talk about 48 hours heads up, the "Super professional" German government will be closing their borders with less than 24 hour notice (something unprecedented) if you have ever crossed the borders of Germany in a car like I have, you will notice that there aren't such a thing as posts or areas where to screen those entering Germany because they removed that many years ago. It will be an interesting sight of chaos tomorrow when all the roads entering Germany from France, Switzerland and Austria etc will be with hours longs traffic jams with people who would like to get in.

I understand you need to keep these criticism alive, the world is living a crisis like no other, no one has ever expected this to be like this. China downplayed this for months, and we all 'thought' it was like the 'flu' when it wasn't, no one was prepared, even if we keep it up with hating Trump for his administration missteps and blunders, all of those European countries which the left and the liberals tell us we need to be, f...d this up very bad, despite them being 'more professional' at what they do. Or so we thought.


The US has some of the best schools of public health management on Earth - developing countries send many of their best and brightest to the US for their MPH degrees. We have the capability and knowledge to be a leader in this area - it’s doubly tragic and infuriating this WH chose to ignore and downplay the science for so long to save face. Now the egg will go everywhere.

As for your unscientific insinuation the virus is indeed ‘foreign’ because it originated in China, it doesn’t matter. Viruses can’t be foreign - they occur naturally in nature and use whatever vectors they can to reproduce, anywhere. Human terms for geographical limits have no meaning in virology.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:36 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Absolute shitstorm in the 12 largest US airports today. In attempting to stop ‘the foreign virus’ from entering from Europe and giving USCIS an unworkable 48-hour heads up, the White House created total chaos with tens of thousands of travelers stuck for hours in close quarters while clearing customs. There will likely be thousands more cases newly-introduced thanks to their idiotic buffoonery. Monkeys could have planned this better!

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-51895246


I have always wondered, why you never cast any 'criticism' on China. And now this post tells it all. You seem to question 'the foreign virus', as if its not foreign, and perhaps questioning those who blame it on China.

Since the start you were very good blaming the US, Japan, etc anyone but China. What's up with that? Why is this forum so muted on actually blaming and criticizing the people who actually started this? is it because of PC?

And talk about 48 hours heads up, the "Super professional" German government will be closing their borders with less than 24 hour notice (something unprecedented) if you have ever crossed the borders of Germany in a car like I have, you will notice that there aren't such a thing as posts or areas where to screen those entering Germany because they removed that many years ago. It will be an interesting sight of chaos tomorrow when all the roads entering Germany from France, Switzerland and Austria etc will be with hours longs traffic jams with people who would like to get in.

I understand you need to keep these criticism alive, the world is living a crisis like no other, no one has ever expected this to be like this. China downplayed this for months, and we all 'thought' it was like the 'flu' when it wasn't, no one was prepared, even if we keep it up with hating Trump for his administration missteps and blunders, all of those European countries which the left and the liberals tell us we need to be, f...d this up very bad, despite them being 'more professional' at what they do. Or so we thought.


The US has some of the best schools of public health management on Earth - developing countries send many of their best and brightest to the US for their MPH degrees. We have the capability and knowledge to be a leader in this area - it’s doubly tragic and infuriating this WH chose to ignore and downplay the science for so long to save face. Now the egg will go everywhere.

As for your unscientific insinuation the virus is indeed ‘foreign’ because it originated in China, it doesn’t matter. Viruses can’t be foreign - they occur naturally in nature and use whatever vectors they can to reproduce, anywhere. Human terms for geographical limits have no meaning in virology.


May I ask, why didnt China let any of those scientist into China when this was rising?

Again you ignore China, it was there where all began, they were the ones downplaying this since November 2019, the Doctor who was the whistleblower was arrested and forced to retract. I would let you respond as to why was China hiding this virus, and as to why we are now learning more as this virus had gone full international.

I know bashing the US government is fun, but lets not ignore the real source of this world wide crisis.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:53 pm

PPVRA wrote:
The Countries With The Most Critical Care Beds Per Capita:
https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/21105/number-of-critical-care-beds-per-100000-inhabitants/

This may come in handy in the US. But hopefully it won’t get to this point....


Going by the major illness % stats, 18% are resporatory related, means approximately 18% of ICU beds are equipped to treat resporatory disorders. Hospitals need to order additional equipment or ration the service.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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DocLightning
Posts: 21836
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:02 am

PPVRA wrote:
The Countries With The Most Critical Care Beds Per Capita:
https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/21105/number-of-critical-care-beds-per-100000-inhabitants/

This may come in handy in the US. But hopefully it won’t get to this point....


At best, it will delay the crisis by 3-7 days over Italy. And it's not as if those ICU beds are evenly spaced out.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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Pellegrine
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:10 am

Jouhou wrote:
Pellegrine wrote:
I don't really post much here anymore. I live, work in DC, and have connections here. I want to emphasize this administration is looking at US nationwide mandatory quarantine for 2-4 weeks starting as early as Tuesday. CDC, private healthcare companies, and the administration.


Something tells me if this is true it would be botched horribly and they will exclude essential industries but fail to define which are essential etc. Like every executive order, no implementation plan. I think they would need to wait a couple of weeks to do this to be able to execute something like that even close to properly.


I don't doubt that; I don't work for this administration. There's hints though. "It's going to get worse before it gets better." Did you see the question and answer about domestic air travel at today's meeting? Also for everyone to look at the current shutdown situation in Chicago, New York, Washington DC, Massachusetts, and Ohio. And the Ohio governor is the one who has it right. Shut it down now. All forced quarantines "fail", the question as to the level of that failure is when the quarantine was imposed and how many people broke it.

And we will have new guidelines issued tomorrow. Ask yourselves, what do you think these guidelines will be?
We fly JETS, we don't fly donkeys.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1298
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:24 am

Germany to close borders with Luxemburg, Austria, France, Switzerland, Denmark.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany ... neighbors/
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:26 am

OK, some thoughts, because I've been doing a *LOT* of reading. And as a reminder, I'm a physician who did a brief molecular virology stint:

* I suspect that there is a VAST underestimation of the number of minimally symptomatic or asymptomatic cases. I had a three week period that just ended where I met many of the criteria for COVID-19, but just so mildly that I shrugged it off as a mix of allergies and being a new dad and whatnot. And now I have a friend, a nurse, who has been seeing more than the usual number of ARDS cases on her unit for a couple of months and she had a similar cluster of symptoms, now resolved. 11 million people in Wuhan alone and 57 million in the metro area and "only" 80,000 cases? I suspect that there were a lot more than that. In Korea, they have acknowledged 8,000 but only tested 250,000 people out of how many million? The issue is that the proportion of infected who wind up in an ICU over it is vastly larger than with the flu, and so that's why this is a crisis. No country has the ICU capacity to handle this.

*The link between hypertension and severity I think was a marker for metabolic syndrome. Some analyses said that it went away when corrected for age. But metabolic syndrome is a pro-inflammatory state. And what the Italian ICU docs were noticing was that so many of their patients had obesity and then wild swings in blood glucose. So if you're overweight, this is a good time to lose weight.

*There are some promising new drugs. Remdesivir is an antiviral that seems to be turning people around in the ICU in US/European trials. Good old chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine seems to be doing wonders. In one chinese study(1), it kept all of 120 patients from critical disease. There are anecdotal reports of a few patients in Japan improving on ALVESCO (ciclesonide), a common asthma inhaler. Then there's lopinavir/ritonavir (KALETRA). If we could start treating people with moderate-to-severe disease EARLY, maybe we could vastly reduce the burden on our ICUs, which would ameliorate the crisis.

*I have no idea if this is going to go away for the summer, nor do I know if there is long-term immunity. But it can't keep circulating like this forever. I suspect it will turn into something like a seasonal flu until we have a good vaccine. If there *IS* good long-term immunity, then I think of an analogy to chicken pox, which is that most kids will catch it and have a mild course and then be protected like adults. Chicken pox is severe in adults.

(1)http://news.southcn.com/nfplus/gdjktt/content/2020-03/09/content_190536632.htm?fbclid=IwAR0ExDLu86fwi1_Ri0eAssQSA51m3jr5mAJ30yJhhEgs_m3eLz-JW0GF1BU (In Chinese but use translate on your browser if you cannot read Chinese)
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"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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Dieuwer
Posts: 2487
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:27 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Germany to close borders with Luxemburg, Austria, France, Switzerland, Denmark.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany ... neighbors/


The Netherlands is exempt? :confused:
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:31 am

Got word from family in Spain, things are getting out of control there, so much so that they arent even testing any mild cases of Coronavirus. I wonder if Italy or France is doing the same, and if so things are much worse in the ground than what it seems.

Portugal closed its borders with Spain too just for tourists in the meantime.

https://www.bellinghamherald.com/entert ... 09116.html
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
kalvado
Posts: 2849
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:37 am

DocLightning wrote:
OK, some thoughts, because I've been doing a *LOT* of reading. And as a reminder, I'm a physician who did a brief molecular virology stint:

* I suspect that there is a VAST underestimation of the number of minimally symptomatic or asymptomatic cases. I had a three week period that just ended where I met many of the criteria for COVID-19, but just so mildly that I shrugged it off as a mix of allergies and being a new dad and whatnot. And now I have a friend, a nurse, who has been seeing more than the usual number of ARDS cases on her unit for a couple of months and she had a similar cluster of symptoms, now resolved. 11 million people in Wuhan alone and 57 million in the metro area and "only" 80,000 cases? I suspect that there were a lot more than that. In Korea, they have acknowledged 8,000 but only tested 250,000 people out of how many million? The issue is that the proportion of infected who wind up in an ICU over it is vastly larger than with the flu, and so that's why this is a crisis. No country has the ICU capacity to handle this.

Imperial College of London collected data on what happened with evacuation flights from Wuhan. Assuming those are a good sample of the are (who knows), 0.87% ended up infected. That is around 450k cases in the province, and 1 in 5 being diagnosed.
Sort of kind of similar to Trevor Bedford's guesstimate of 1 in 10 diagnosed in US as of right now.
 
Derico
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:37 am

Argentina closing all the airports, land borders, and ports to foreign nationals until march 31.

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/al ... nid2343665
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petertenthije
Posts: 3922
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:37 am

Dieuwer wrote:
The Netherlands is exempt? :confused:

Just wait till they hear the coffee shops have been closed as well. Then they will close the Dutch borders as well. :D

First world problems... there were massive lines spanning city blocks to do some last minute shopping at coffee shops before they had to close at 18:00. Only in the Netherlands. LOL
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Pellegrine
Posts: 2455
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:43 am

DocLightning wrote:
OK, some thoughts, because I've been doing a *LOT* of reading. And as a reminder, I'm a physician who did a brief molecular virology stint:

*There are some promising new drugs. Remdesivir is an antiviral that seems to be turning people around in the ICU in US/European trials. Good old chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine seems to be doing wonders. In one chinese study(1), it kept all of 120 patients from critical disease. There are anecdotal reports of a few patients in Japan improving on ALVESCO (ciclesonide), a common asthma inhaler. Then there's lopinavir/ritonavir (KALETRA). If we could start treating people with moderate-to-severe disease EARLY, maybe we could vastly reduce the burden on our ICUs, which would ameliorate the crisis.


Kaletra+chloroquinine looks promising. I read a study about that myself. Interesting stuff.
Last edited by Pellegrine on Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
We fly JETS, we don't fly donkeys.
 
Zaf
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:45 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Germany to close borders with Luxemburg, Austria, France, Switzerland, Denmark.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany ... neighbors/


with lots of exceptions though. commuters can still spread the virus.
it's to prevent our neighbours buying our stores empty.
Can't stop the virus. It's too late for that anyway. we needed a complete lockdown 3 weeks ago. our politicians were sleeping.
 
M564038
Posts: 373
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:48 am

Which are all the sane things to do to start turning things around.

No one has been testing based on mild symptoms for a long time. People have been asked to self-quarantine without testing. This goes for most countries.

The western country that had tested the least are the US.
I really hope things won’t get out of hand over there.
They don’t really have a great health care service, they aren’t good at taking care of those in need, have very high crime-rates on the best of days, and a high share even have guns.

I really hope that won’t get ugly.
The fabric of their society had been showing signs of tearing for the last few years due to missing leadership.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Got word from family in Spain, things are getting out of control there, so much so that they arent even testing any mild cases of Coronavirus. I wonder if Italy or France is doing the same, and if so things are much worse in the ground than what it seems.

Portugal closed its borders with Spain too just for tourists in the meantime.

https://www.bellinghamherald.com/entert ... 09116.html
 
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gatibosgru
Posts: 1771
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:53 am

PPVRA wrote:
Aesma wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
The Countries With The Most Critical Care Beds Per Capita:
https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/21105/number-of-critical-care-beds-per-100000-inhabitants/

This may come in handy in the US. But hopefully it won’t get to this point....


Do you have access to such a bed, for potentially 2-3 weeks, if you're poor, without insurance ?


Yes, you do.


Just expect a life changing bill at the end of it all.
@DadCelo
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:54 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

I have always wondered, why you never cast any 'criticism' on China. And now this post tells it all. You seem to question 'the foreign virus', as if its not foreign, and perhaps questioning those who blame it on China.

Since the start you were very good blaming the US, Japan, etc anyone but China. What's up with that? Why is this forum so muted on actually blaming and criticizing the people who actually started this? is it because of PC?

And talk about 48 hours heads up, the "Super professional" German government will be closing their borders with less than 24 hour notice (something unprecedented) if you have ever crossed the borders of Germany in a car like I have, you will notice that there aren't such a thing as posts or areas where to screen those entering Germany because they removed that many years ago. It will be an interesting sight of chaos tomorrow when all the roads entering Germany from France, Switzerland and Austria etc will be with hours longs traffic jams with people who would like to get in.

I understand you need to keep these criticism alive, the world is living a crisis like no other, no one has ever expected this to be like this. China downplayed this for months, and we all 'thought' it was like the 'flu' when it wasn't, no one was prepared, even if we keep it up with hating Trump for his administration missteps and blunders, all of those European countries which the left and the liberals tell us we need to be, f...d this up very bad, despite them being 'more professional' at what they do. Or so we thought.


The US has some of the best schools of public health management on Earth - developing countries send many of their best and brightest to the US for their MPH degrees. We have the capability and knowledge to be a leader in this area - it’s doubly tragic and infuriating this WH chose to ignore and downplay the science for so long to save face. Now the egg will go everywhere.

As for your unscientific insinuation the virus is indeed ‘foreign’ because it originated in China, it doesn’t matter. Viruses can’t be foreign - they occur naturally in nature and use whatever vectors they can to reproduce, anywhere. Human terms for geographical limits have no meaning in virology.


May I ask, why didnt China let any of those scientist into China when this was rising?

Again you ignore China, it was there where all began, they were the ones downplaying this since November 2019, the Doctor who was the whistleblower was arrested and forced to retract. I would let you respond as to why was China hiding this virus, and as to why we are now learning more as this virus had gone full international.

I know bashing the US government is fun, but lets not ignore the real source of this world wide crisis.


China doesn’t let international observers in under most circumstances, public health or not. Nobody who follows Chinese politics was surprised by their swift moves to suppress information - but if you look at the issue with a bit of nuance you’ll notice they suppressed information relating to the government’s handling and containment of the outbreak for political purposes. They did not suppress scientific data itself - Chinese researchers published numerous genomic and epidemiological studies of COVID-19 in English and otherwise.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00253-8

In any case you’re failing to address the main point - the US can and should be better than acting in similar ways. The WH spent two months downplaying and avoiding for what we can only assume were political purposes. The *experts* were saying something different - and now the barn doors are closing after the horses have bolted. It’s a failure of leadership not to take advantage of the great science and capability we have.
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TheFlyingDisk
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:56 am

So which is which?

I've doctors saying that only those who are sick should wear surgical masks, and that those who are not sick shouldn't wear masks as it will increase the risk of getting sick. And then we have people here saying people should wear masks.
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:09 am

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
So which is which?

I've doctors saying that only those who are sick should wear surgical masks, and that those who are not sick shouldn't wear masks as it will increase the risk of getting sick. And then we have people here saying people should wear masks.


WHO, CDC, US Surgeon General et al all advise *against* wearing masks unless you are sick or symptomatic.

There is no scientific basis that mass market masks will protect you from virus particles, and the nature of wearing/adjusting them means you may actually touch your face more than usual, which is also a risk factor for infection.

People who are ill should wear them because if they cough or sneeze it will prevent larger droplets loaded with virus from being expelled some distance away.

https://www.osha.gov/Publications/respi ... sheet.html

What they are trying to drill into everyone is:

1. Keep exposed surfaces you use clean
2. Wash hands regularly and properly
3. Avoid touching your face, especially mucous membranes like around the eyes.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8357
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:11 am

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
So which is which?

I've doctors saying that only those who are sick should wear surgical masks, and that those who are not sick shouldn't wear masks as it will increase the risk of getting sick. And then we have people here saying people should wear masks.


I think that is just messaging to manage the shortage of masks. One logic I heard, if consumers hoard all the masks, medical professionals may face a shortage, that theory seems to far fetched because every country will have strategic reserves.

If you are in a crowded place you should wear a mask and gloves.

I would like to hear back from the IATA doctor who told masks are absolute waste and viruses won't survive on hard surfaces.
All posts are just opinions.
 
M564038
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:14 am

All serious medical authorities says this:

If you are sick, stay away from people, but you wearing a mask may protect those treating you and others.

If you are not sick, do not wear a mask.
Wearing a mask makes you touch your face many times more than people not wearing a mask, and thus you are more at risk than people potentially breathing the same air as someone with the virus. Contact contamination are much more contagious than breath.

Masks aren’t that effective at protecting against getting the virus in the first place.
There are ways to bypass a mask on the way in, but it is very effective stopping virus on the way out of it.

You can get the virus if you are wearing a mask, from someone that could have stopped it Spreading from them with a mask, but they couldn’t buy one because you bought them all.


If you are professionally treating sick people, and you are repeatedly and professionaly trained not to touch your face while doing so, you should wear a mask at work.


TheFlyingDisk wrote:
So which is which?

I've doctors saying that only those who are sick should wear surgical masks, and that those who are not sick shouldn't wear masks as it will increase the risk of getting sick. And then we have people here saying people should wear masks.
Last edited by M564038 on Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
A101
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:18 am

I haven’t been even able to confirm but the scuttlebug is the Chunnel has doubled its price for travel at the moment
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:21 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
So which is which?

I've doctors saying that only those who are sick should wear surgical masks, and that those who are not sick shouldn't wear masks as it will increase the risk of getting sick. And then we have people here saying people should wear masks.


I think that is just messaging to manage the shortage of masks. One logic I heard, if consumers hoard all the masks, medical professionals may face a shortage, that theory seems to far fetched because every country will have strategic reserves.

If you are in a crowded place you should wear a mask and gloves.

I would like to hear back from the IATA doctor who told masks are absolute waste and viruses won't survive on hard surfaces.


https://www.medicinenet.com/do_face_mas ... rticle.htm

Well, not exactly. See the article above for comments about what regular masks do and don’t do for you. I guess I can see the utility of gloves in public, provided that you wash your hands both before putting them on and after removing/disposing of them.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:39 am

Aaron747 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
If you are in a crowded place you should wear a mask and gloves.

I would like to hear back from the IATA doctor who told masks are absolute waste and viruses won't survive on hard surfaces.


https://www.medicinenet.com/do_face_mas ... rticle.htm

Well, not exactly. See the article above for comments about what regular masks do and don’t do for you. I guess I can see the utility of gloves in public, provided that you wash your hands both before putting them on and after removing/disposing of them.


So, the expectation is someone who is going sneeze or cough will make an announcement so others can clear the area. I would file that under "winging it" folder. Even with the best intention humans cannot always control sneezes/coughs, and many times people miss covering with their elbow. Depending on which way you are moving there could be a loss of separation incident.

Either avoid crowded places or protect yourself temporarily.
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Pellegrine
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:42 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
So which is which?

I've doctors saying that only those who are sick should wear surgical masks, and that those who are not sick shouldn't wear masks as it will increase the risk of getting sick. And then we have people here saying people should wear masks.


I think that is just messaging to manage the shortage of masks. One logic I heard, if consumers hoard all the masks, medical professionals may face a shortage, that theory seems to far fetched because every country will have strategic reserves.

If you are in a crowded place you should wear a mask and gloves.

I would like to hear back from the IATA doctor who told masks are absolute waste and viruses won't survive on hard surfaces.


This is absolutely not the time to spread foolhardy misinformation. Masks NEED to be worn properly and changed frequently to work. Surgical masks aren't much help. Lay-people often don't know the proper information (such as donning and doffing), which is why they aren't recommended.
We fly JETS, we don't fly donkeys.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:52 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
If you are in a crowded place you should wear a mask and gloves.

I would like to hear back from the IATA doctor who told masks are absolute waste and viruses won't survive on hard surfaces.


https://www.medicinenet.com/do_face_mas ... rticle.htm

Well, not exactly. See the article above for comments about what regular masks do and don’t do for you. I guess I can see the utility of gloves in public, provided that you wash your hands both before putting them on and after removing/disposing of them.


So, the expectation is someone who is going sneeze or cough will make an announcement so others can clear the area. I would file that under "winging it" folder. Even with the best intention humans cannot always control sneezes/coughs, and many times people miss covering with their elbow. Depending on which way you are moving there could be a loss of separation incident.

Either avoid crowded places or protect yourself temporarily.


Not sure what you are getting at here - risk of expelling airborne droplets via cough or sneeze is EXACTLY why the guidelines call for those who are symptomatic to wear masks.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:57 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Not sure what you are getting at here - risk of expelling airborne droplets via cough or sneeze is EXACTLY why the guidelines call for those who are symptomatic to wear masks.


Point is there is no way I can dictate what others should or should not do.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:01 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Not sure what you are getting at here - risk of expelling airborne droplets via cough or sneeze is EXACTLY why the guidelines call for those who are symptomatic to wear masks.


Point is there is no way I can dictate what others should or should not do.


Granted, but a surgical mask is not going to shield you from viruses. Read up.
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Aesma
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:59 am

If you have plenty of undiagnosed carriers, then having everyone wearing a mask will have an effect, because these carriers will contaminate less people. That doesn't mean the mask is protecting you, not at all, it's the fact that everyone else is also wearing one that is protecting you.

Now you need to have masks, and you need people to wear them. In Asia, this is common, elsewhere, not so much.

Then there is social distancing. Some places are still not even advocating that. In France the president called for it on Thursday, the address was watched by a record amount of people (23 millions from memory), it was praised ect., yet too many people didn't follow suit, so now places where people gather are closed, and we might go on full lockdown very quickly.
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dampfnudel
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:36 am

Aaron747 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Not sure what you are getting at here - risk of expelling airborne droplets via cough or sneeze is EXACTLY why the guidelines call for those who are symptomatic to wear masks.


Point is there is no way I can dictate what others should or should not do.


Granted, but a surgical mask is not going to shield you from viruses. Read up.

No, but if someone who’s infected and unaware of it decides to wear a surgical mask to “protect” themselves, they probably won’t infect you.
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qf789
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:45 am

Here in Australia Woolworths has revealed they are selling 7 weeks (what they would typically sell) worth of toilet paper every day

https://twitter.com/australian/status/1 ... 77249?s=21
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speedking
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:09 am

This came from China, a communist dictatorship. Their fellow commies around the world are now afraid that the government, the orange face in particular, doesn't take care of them. That's why all the noise against him. Should we use masks or not? Should we stock on supplies? Help us! Give us free stuff!
I'm from the Government and I'm here to help. The nine most terrifying words in English language.
The rest of us have been prepared and ready for a long time already.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:17 am

speedking wrote:
This came from China, a communist dictatorship. Their fellow commies around the world are now afraid that the government, the orange face in particular, doesn't take care of them. That's why all the noise against him. Should we use masks or not? Should we stock on supplies? Help us! Give us free stuff!
I'm from the Government and I'm here to help. The nine most terrifying words in English language.
The rest of us have been prepared and ready for a long time already.


Doesn’t that include the experts, who have studied and prepared a long time - only for much of their advice to go unheeded by ‘leaders’? Your statement of rugged individualism provides cover for incompetence.
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DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:25 am

https://apnews.com/8089a3d0ec8f9fde971bddd7b3aa2ba1

Coronavirus Vaccine Trials to Start on Monday
WASHINGTON (AP) — The first participant in a clinical trial for a vaccine to protect against the new coronavirus will receive an experimental dose on Monday, according to a government official.

The National Institutes of Health is funding the trial, which is taking place at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle. The official who disclosed plans for the first participant spoke on condition of anonymity because the move has not been publicly announced.

Public health officials say it will take a year to 18 months to fully validate any potential vaccine.

I am having a hard time believing this for many reasons.

Thoughts?
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:26 am

I know it's a moot point currently, but why are so many people forgetting what the Chinese government was doing back in Nov/Dec when this was first starting to break out?
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:37 am

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
https://apnews.com/8089a3d0ec8f9fde971bddd7b3aa2ba1

Coronavirus Vaccine Trials to Start on Monday
WASHINGTON (AP) — The first participant in a clinical trial for a vaccine to protect against the new coronavirus will receive an experimental dose on Monday, according to a government official.

The National Institutes of Health is funding the trial, which is taking place at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle. The official who disclosed plans for the first participant spoke on condition of anonymity because the move has not been publicly announced.

Public health officials say it will take a year to 18 months to fully validate any potential vaccine.

I am having a hard time believing this for many reasons.

Thoughts?


Which part - the lengthy validation process?
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DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:56 am

no, I get that, because of what was wrote on this thread by professionals, I just can't believe they would do a trial in Washington where the outbreak is and report on it, without it being officially OK. I guess this is click bait?
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:10 am

NYC Restaurants, bars, & cafes - Take Out Only Beg. March 17th

https://twitter.com/NYCMayorsOffice/sta ... 14082?s=20
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:34 am

1989worstyear wrote:
I know it's a moot point currently, but why are so many people forgetting what the Chinese government was doing back in Nov/Dec when this was first starting to break out?


We will get back to that after we put out the fire. No point in bickering with the PRC when the problem is on our own doorstep.



Does anyone know why France is telling people to not take NSAIDs? Do they have some relevant data? I want to know is prostaglandins are essential to fighting this thing off. It might explain why men are getting sicker than women- our cycles pump varying levels of prostaglandins into us all the time. I wonder if it explains why smokers are appearing to contract the virus significantly less in the data. Smoking also alters prostaglandin levels. https://www.fasebj.org/doi/full/10.1096/fj.14-268383
情報
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:40 am

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
no, I get that, because of what was wrote on this thread by professionals, I just can't believe they would do a trial in Washington where the outbreak is and report on it, without it being officially OK. I guess this is click bait?


They had shipped out a vaccine for clinical trials to start in April already, with the escalating crisis it makes sense to move that up a few weeks, since the reason for the wait seemed to be more administrative than safety related. Doing it in the middle of an active outbreak zone is atypical for a phase 1 clinical trial but I guess we will find out if it fails and causes ADE faster this way. The people participating are either very brave souls or are unaware of the risks.
情報
 
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Pellegrine
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:20 am

Jouhou wrote:
Does anyone know why France is telling people to not take NSAIDs? Do they have some relevant data? I want to know is prostaglandins are essential to fighting this thing off. It might explain why men are getting sicker than women- our cycles pump varying levels of prostaglandins into us all the time. I wonder if it explains why smokers are appearing to contract the virus significantly less in the data. Smoking also alters prostaglandin levels. https://www.fasebj.org/doi/full/10.1096/fj.14-268383


I'm thinking this is about allergies and side effects and blocking clinically important fever indications. Have you looked up prostaglantins and EBOV, HIV? .
We fly JETS, we don't fly donkeys.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:46 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
So which is which?

I've doctors saying that only those who are sick should wear surgical masks, and that those who are not sick shouldn't wear masks as it will increase the risk of getting sick. And then we have people here saying people should wear masks.


I think that is just messaging to manage the shortage of masks. One logic I heard, if consumers hoard all the masks, medical professionals may face a shortage, that theory seems to far fetched because every country will have strategic reserves.

If you are in a crowded place you should wear a mask and gloves.

I would like to hear back from the IATA doctor who told masks are absolute waste and viruses won't survive on hard surfaces.


We already covered this earlier on in this thread.

It's shameful that our medical professionals didn't see this coming and didn't secure masks, and now resort to telling people to not protect themselves so they can protect themselves.

I don't earn as much as a doctor but I was able to allocate a budget and secure a decent stash of respirator masks FFP2/FFP3 early on because I had my eyes and ears open. I could also secure half face masks and full face masks.
Now I hear doctors complaining that they only have a small stock and then show on TV a couple of useless surgical masks lying in a medical cabinet. So doctors clearly are not well informed about the type of masks that is required for this kind of intervention, nor do they seem to have the interest to keep updated about major medical threats. Politicians and medical professionals are now falsely claiming that masks don't help and could even make infection more likely which is uter b*%%£+*, because they want to secure their supply.
I'm now considering donating some of that stash to medical professionals in hard hit area's, althoug I feel ridiculous to have to babysit doctors who earn more than I do and were complacent at best.

N95, N100, FFP2 and FFP3 respirator masks will provide very good to excellent protection from inhalation of airborne particles that could carry the virus.
On top of that, eye protection may be advisable. Your swimming goggles could do, but you also have bigger goggles.
Even with these you may still interface with the virus, but the quantity of virus will be so insignificant that your body will be able to repell it very swiftly before it can multiply so that it doesn't lead to an infection.

So if you can find respirator masks, just buy them and protect yourself and your family.
Don't buy them to leave them on the shelf "just in case", because we are already fully in the "just in case" scenario.
Don't waste your money on surgical masks, they don't cut your exposure enough to justify the discomfort of wearing them.

By the way, Belgium ordered masks from a company in Turkey and seem to have paid for them, only to be left empty handed.
The Belgian minister of Health said a few weeks ago that they were ready for Covid19....

"It appears that we have fallen victims to a scam".

https://www.hln.be/de-krant/5-miljoen-m ... ~a6977412/


Ignore messages from politicians about not buying masks, not stashing food.
Get informed, there is enough information to make your own assessment of the situation, make your own decisions and execute plans.
"There is enough toilet paper". 3 weeks ago there supposedly were enough masks for everyone so if you feel like you need toilet paper, just buy it.
IMO toilet paper is not as essential as it appears: if you run out you can allocate a few towels for that purpose and rotate them. Towels can also be used for a wide variey of purposes, even in regular daily use, so I would stash towels.
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Pellegrine
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:53 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
TheFlyingDisk wrote:
So which is which?

I've doctors saying that only those who are sick should wear surgical masks, and that those who are not sick shouldn't wear masks as it will increase the risk of getting sick. And then we have people here saying people should wear masks.


I think that is just messaging to manage the shortage of masks. One logic I heard, if consumers hoard all the masks, medical professionals may face a shortage, that theory seems to far fetched because every country will have strategic reserves.

If you are in a crowded place you should wear a mask and gloves.

I would like to hear back from the IATA doctor who told masks are absolute waste and viruses won't survive on hard surfaces.


We already covered this earlier on in this thread.

It's shameful that our medical professionals didn't see this coming and didn't secure masks, and now resort to telling people to not protect themselves so they can protect themselves.

I don't earn as much as a doctor but I was able to allocate a budget and secure a decent stash of respirator masks FFP2/FFP3 early on because I had my eyes and ears open. I could also secure half face masks and full face masks.
Now I hear doctors complaining that they only have a small stock and then show on TV a couple of useless surgical masks lying in a medical cabinet. So doctors clearly are not well informed about the type of masks that is required for this kind of intervention, nor do they seem to have the interest to keep updated about major medical threats. Politicians and medical professionals are now falsely claiming that masks don't help and could even make infection more likely which is uter b*%%£+*, because they want to secure their supply.
I'm now considering donating some of that stash to medical professionals in hard hit area's, althoug I feel ridiculous to have to babysit doctors who earn more than I do and were complacent at best.

N95, N100, FFP2 and FFP3 respirator masks will provide very good to excellent protection from inhalation of airborne particles that could carry the virus.
On top of that, eye protection may be advisable. Your swimming goggles could do, but you also have bigger goggles.
Even with these you may still interface with the virus, but the quantity of virus will be so insignificant that your body will be able to repell it very swiftly before it can multiply so that it doesn't lead to an infection.

So if you can find respirator masks, just buy them and protect yourself and your family.
Don't buy them to leave them on the shelf "just in case", because we are already fully in the "just in case" scenario.
Don't waste your money on surgical masks, they don't cut your exposure enough to justify the discomfort of wearing them.

By the way, Belgium ordered masks from a company in Turkey and seem to have paid for them, only to be left empty handed.
The Belgian minister of Health said a few weeks ago that they were ready for Covid19....

"It appears that we have fallen victims to a scam".

https://www.hln.be/de-krant/5-miljoen-m ... ~a6977412/


You don't earn as much as a doctor but you want to post this bullshit? Do you know anything about ebolavirus protocol? Swimming goggles!!!
We fly JETS, we don't fly donkeys.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1298
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:57 am

Pellegrine wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

I think that is just messaging to manage the shortage of masks. One logic I heard, if consumers hoard all the masks, medical professionals may face a shortage, that theory seems to far fetched because every country will have strategic reserves.

If you are in a crowded place you should wear a mask and gloves.

I would like to hear back from the IATA doctor who told masks are absolute waste and viruses won't survive on hard surfaces.


We already covered this earlier on in this thread.

It's shameful that our medical professionals didn't see this coming and didn't secure masks, and now resort to telling people to not protect themselves so they can protect themselves.

I don't earn as much as a doctor but I was able to allocate a budget and secure a decent stash of respirator masks FFP2/FFP3 early on because I had my eyes and ears open. I could also secure half face masks and full face masks.
Now I hear doctors complaining that they only have a small stock and then show on TV a couple of useless surgical masks lying in a medical cabinet. So doctors clearly are not well informed about the type of masks that is required for this kind of intervention, nor do they seem to have the interest to keep updated about major medical threats. Politicians and medical professionals are now falsely claiming that masks don't help and could even make infection more likely which is uter b*%%£+*, because they want to secure their supply.
I'm now considering donating some of that stash to medical professionals in hard hit area's, althoug I feel ridiculous to have to babysit doctors who earn more than I do and were complacent at best.

N95, N100, FFP2 and FFP3 respirator masks will provide very good to excellent protection from inhalation of airborne particles that could carry the virus.
On top of that, eye protection may be advisable. Your swimming goggles could do, but you also have bigger goggles.
Even with these you may still interface with the virus, but the quantity of virus will be so insignificant that your body will be able to repell it very swiftly before it can multiply so that it doesn't lead to an infection.

So if you can find respirator masks, just buy them and protect yourself and your family.
Don't buy them to leave them on the shelf "just in case", because we are already fully in the "just in case" scenario.
Don't waste your money on surgical masks, they don't cut your exposure enough to justify the discomfort of wearing them.

By the way, Belgium ordered masks from a company in Turkey and seem to have paid for them, only to be left empty handed.
The Belgian minister of Health said a few weeks ago that they were ready for Covid19....

"It appears that we have fallen victims to a scam".

https://www.hln.be/de-krant/5-miljoen-m ... ~a6977412/


You don't earn as much as a doctor but you want to post this bullshit? Do you know anything about ebolavirus protocol? Swimming goggles!!!


What's wrong with speedo swimming goggles?
They offer plenty of protection from airborne particles, they are basically watertight. They may not be airtight but that's not really necessary, we're not talking about walking on the moon here.
Plus most people will have a pair at home.
 
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bgm
Posts: 2447
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:02 am

DocLightning wrote:
OK, some thoughts, because I've been doing a *LOT* of reading. And as a reminder, I'm a physician who did a brief molecular virology stint:

* I suspect that there is a VAST underestimation of the number of minimally symptomatic or asymptomatic cases. I had a three week period that just ended where I met many of the criteria for COVID-19, but just so mildly that I shrugged it off as a mix of allergies and being a new dad and whatnot. And now I have a friend, a nurse, who has been seeing more than the usual number of ARDS cases on her unit for a couple of months and she had a similar cluster of symptoms, now resolved. 11 million people in Wuhan alone and 57 million in the metro area and "only" 80,000 cases? I suspect that there were a lot more than that. In Korea, they have acknowledged 8,000 but only tested 250,000 people out of how many million? The issue is that the proportion of infected who wind up in an ICU over it is vastly larger than with the flu, and so that's why this is a crisis. No country has the ICU capacity to handle this.

*The link between hypertension and severity I think was a marker for metabolic syndrome. Some analyses said that it went away when corrected for age. But metabolic syndrome is a pro-inflammatory state. And what the Italian ICU docs were noticing was that so many of their patients had obesity and then wild swings in blood glucose. So if you're overweight, this is a good time to lose weight.

*There are some promising new drugs. Remdesivir is an antiviral that seems to be turning people around in the ICU in US/European trials. Good old chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine seems to be doing wonders. In one chinese study(1), it kept all of 120 patients from critical disease. There are anecdotal reports of a few patients in Japan improving on ALVESCO (ciclesonide), a common asthma inhaler. Then there's lopinavir/ritonavir (KALETRA). If we could start treating people with moderate-to-severe disease EARLY, maybe we could vastly reduce the burden on our ICUs, which would ameliorate the crisis.

*I have no idea if this is going to go away for the summer, nor do I know if there is long-term immunity. But it can't keep circulating like this forever. I suspect it will turn into something like a seasonal flu until we have a good vaccine. If there *IS* good long-term immunity, then I think of an analogy to chicken pox, which is that most kids will catch it and have a mild course and then be protected like adults. Chicken pox is severe in adults.

(1)http://news.southcn.com/nfplus/gdjktt/content/2020-03/09/content_190536632.htm?fbclid=IwAR0ExDLu86fwi1_Ri0eAssQSA51m3jr5mAJ30yJhhEgs_m3eLz-JW0GF1BU (In Chinese but use translate on your browser if you cannot read Chinese)


Interesting reading, and thanks for your input. Oh, and congrats on being a Dad! :champagne:

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