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Dieuwer
Posts: 2413
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:20 pm

DIRECTFLT wrote:
Illinois governor imposes stay-at-home order to curb virus

https://apnews.com/3f95f06cca841a929f46535bc9cc5b43


Coincidence he looks like the brother of Maduro? ;)
 
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scbriml
Posts: 19043
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Bill Gates & George Soros behind Covid-19 ?

Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:15 pm

CarbonFibre wrote:
The brother of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn claims the outbreak is no accident.

https://www.davidicke.com/article/56610 ... acy-theory


If it’s on David Icke’s website, then it must be true. :banghead:

CarbonFibre wrote:
The claim is no more ridiculous than the 'official story' that people have spread it from China.


Extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence. Where is yours?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 19043
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:29 pm

DIRECTFLT wrote:
Illinois governor imposes stay-at-home order to curb virus

https://apnews.com/3f95f06cca841a929f46535bc9cc5b43


The alternative is idiots like these helping to spread the damn thing. I wonder if some posters here are among them protesting about tyranny, rights and liberty?

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-ca ... oronavirus
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 386
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:43 pm

scbriml wrote:
DIRECTFLT wrote:
Illinois governor imposes stay-at-home order to curb virus

https://apnews.com/3f95f06cca841a929f46535bc9cc5b43


The alternative is idiots like these helping to spread the damn thing. I wonder if some posters here are among them protesting about tyranny, rights and liberty?

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-ca ... oronavirus


No doubt - but we can’t keep this up forever. 12-18 months for a vaccine is economic suicide, and quite possibly would kill more than the virus with the fallout from it.

Not arguing these steps aren’t warranted at the moment, I think they certainly are, but if this drags on longer than June/July I think people seriously have to consider reopening things.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Bill Gates & George Soros behind Covid-19 ?

Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:55 pm

scbriml wrote:
If it’s on David Icke’s website, then it must be true. :banghead:


I knew it, never trust a BASIC programmer. While everybody busy stocking toilet paper, I am busy stocking Reynolds wrap.
All posts are just opinions.
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 563
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:59 pm

casinterest wrote:
The US numbers are staggering.

Last Friday we were talking about 2,000 ill,
Today there may be over 19,000 ill.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


It will go like this for few days (hopefully not longer)
They started to process more tests.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2413
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:07 am

People seriously think that more testing will scare the virus away??
The ONLY thing that will stop this virus is a cure and/or vaccination. Even Social Distancing will only delay the inevitable.
 
Flaps
Posts: 1649
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2000 1:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:56 am

Dieuwer wrote:
People seriously think that more testing will scare the virus away??
The ONLY thing that will stop this virus is a cure and/or vaccination. Even Social Distancing will only delay the inevitable.


Or time.
 
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DocLightning
Posts: 21816
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:11 am

JetBuddy wrote:
I have one question: Am I understanding it correctly that I should not be very worried if I have hypertension and take Candesartan daily? I also have asthma and use Ventoline. I am being extra cautious these days and have self quarantined myself for a week now.


In and of itself, having hypertension is likely a risk. That said, you do not have to worry that candesartan will make it worse and you should continue to scrupulously control your blood pressure.

Asthma does not appear to be a risk. And there are immunological reasons why I suspect that might be, but they are highly technical and I don't want to offer anyone false reassurance.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 11993
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:30 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
It's very sad to see people roll over and give up their rights and liberty. The governor of PA even ordered all law offices closed. Now no one can even sue to stop his tyranny.


Please explain how this is so. Unlike the limitations on federal powers, the ‘police powers’ of states have been upheld time and again by SCOTUS. Check out Jacobson v. Massachusetts 1905.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2379
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:41 am

Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
It's very sad to see people roll over and give up their rights and liberty. The governor of PA even ordered all law offices closed. Now no one can even sue to stop his tyranny.


Please explain how this is so. Unlike the limitations on federal powers, the ‘police powers’ of states have been upheld time and again by SCOTUS. Check out Jacobson v. Massachusetts 1905.


You should read his Twitter feed and articles published from actual attorneys. Sickness is not covered. We are not at war or suffering a natural disaster. Wolf has already had to back off from his order. If you think all Americans will just sick back and have all of their rights stripped away then you are wrong. Notice it's currently only Democrat governors grabbing for absolute power.

http://www.exploreclarion.com/2020/03/1 ... nsylvania/

https://www.dailyitem.com/coronavirus/l ... 32ae2.html
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 11993
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:59 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
It's very sad to see people roll over and give up their rights and liberty. The governor of PA even ordered all law offices closed. Now no one can even sue to stop his tyranny.


Please explain how this is so. Unlike the limitations on federal powers, the ‘police powers’ of states have been upheld time and again by SCOTUS. Check out Jacobson v. Massachusetts 1905.


You should read his Twitter feed and articles published from actual attorneys. Sickness is not covered. We are not at war or suffering a natural disaster. Wolf has already had to back off from his order. If you think all Americans will just sick back and have all of their rights stripped away then you are wrong. Notice it's currently only Democrat governors grabbing for absolute power.

http://www.exploreclarion.com/2020/03/1 ... nsylvania/

https://www.dailyitem.com/coronavirus/l ... 32ae2.html


Your guv backed off because they were overwhelmed by waiver requests. Enforcement still begins on Monday. And I have no idea where you get the impression ‘sickness’ is not covered - state police powers generally cover health, welfare, and safety of citizens.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/a-cons ... 1584659429

https://thedispatch.com/p/the-police-po ... -states-to

https://biotech.law.lsu.edu/cphl/articles/pp-jstd.pdf
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1208
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:06 am

Grocery store workers, unlike health care providers, are not on the whole being given masks or other protective gear to wear on the job.

But some localities are passing rules to protect both store employees and their customers.

The Los Angeles City Council this week enacted measures that mandate markets, as well as drug stores and food-delivery businesses, to provide "all necessary sanitary cleaners," give workers time to frequently wash their hands, and provide any necessary protective wear.

“These are workers that are on the front lines of this public health emergency, and we have to make sure they have the protections they need throughout their shifts,” City Councilman Curren Price said.

“The goal of the package is for the safety and protection of the employees and customers."

Some grocery store workers said they understand the risks.

A cashier at Publix in central Florida said his company is doing all it can to keep the store clean, but that he is still bringing in his own sanitizer. He is rubbing his hands on it after every single transaction "as a precaution for myself and my family."

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/co ... s-n1164411
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:53 am

I sure hope governments are working around the clock prepping for the worst. Because this lockdown will NOT last more than a few weeks. People are going to (rightly) come to the conclusion that the destruction of the world economy is worse than millions being infected. Which is probably what's gonna happen a few weeks after lockdown is lifted

If proper preparation is not taking place, this is all a destructive waste of time. Can you imagine if we have just as many deaths after locking down and destroying the economy as not locking down at all?

I'm not getting a warm and fuzzy from the US government... I sure hope they're preparing more than they appear to be
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 11993
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:01 am

DeltaMD90 wrote:
I sure hope governments are working around the clock prepping for the worst. Because this lockdown will NOT last more than a few weeks. People are going to (rightly) come to the conclusion that the destruction of the world economy is worse than millions being infected. Which is probably what's gonna happen a few weeks after lockdown is lifted

If proper preparation is not taking place, this is all a destructive waste of time. Can you imagine if we have just as many deaths after locking down and destroying the economy as not locking down at all?

I'm not getting a warm and fuzzy from the US government... I sure hope they're preparing more than they appear to be


Unfortunately we can already see the leadership deficit daily - the task force was not set up as a functional crisis management operation. Drs. Fauci and Brix looking uncomfortable in today’s presser when Pence was saying testing is peachy does not bode well.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
sccutler
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:07 am

Well, they’re certainly throwing enough money at it.
...three miles from BRONS, clear for the ILS one five approach...
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1208
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:50 am

DeltaMD90 wrote:
I sure hope governments are working around the clock prepping for the worst. Because this lockdown will NOT last more than a few weeks. People are going to (rightly) come to the conclusion that the destruction of the world economy is worse than millions being infected. Which is probably what's gonna happen a few weeks after lockdown is lifted

If proper preparation is not taking place, this is all a destructive waste of time. Can you imagine if we have just as many deaths after locking down and destroying the economy as not locking down at all?

I'm not getting a warm and fuzzy from the US government... I sure hope they're preparing more than they appear to be



As world leaders are proving these days, money is just digits on a screen and paper coming out of a special printer.
At the flick of a few switches, they can make it flow as fast as they want.
Trump is talking about helicopter money too, about distributing 1000USD to each individual in the USA.

The actual economy are the people, and people can't produce or consume under fear or if ill.
If you look at how a flu can take out half of a company for weeks, this thing can wipe out entire workforces indefinitely (no acquired immunity). If this spreads within your company, who's going to run it?
No one likes to stay in bed during a bad flu with a sore throat, running nose, cold chills, painful muscles and bones. This is vastly worse than that, it takes months to recover with no lasting immunity unlike the flu.

The health care systems are limited in their ability to process this illness. In a few days, Italy will see thousands of deaths per day and soon we'll see the same figures for the USA.
At some point the U.S. figures will surpass Italy's figures, things will gradually slow down in Italy thanks to the earlier and extreme lockdown measures.

In 10 days it will be big in the USA and you won't recognise your country anymore.
There is a reason why Trump and friends are collecting respirators. Italy is giving the world a heads-up and warning them through their experience of what type of issues and shortages they can expect.
Is the USA preparing? Definitely.
Will it be enough? I don't think so.
Will it be enough to avoid catastrophe? I don't think so.
Will it make a difference? Definitely, and especially on the economic front, by lessening the impact and shortening the duration of the crisis.

The time to stop this quickly has passed, because of early reluctance to shut down the economy.
However, the longer you let it drag, the bigger the impact and cost to the economy.
As you can see, the graphs are exponential ones, so how soon you attack this can make a multiple fold impact on the economy.
The US did win time with the initial measures of closing off China, but more recently they dragged their feet with testing and now they're too hesitant to take blanket lockdown measures including commercial air transport. This will cost them dearly in a few weeks.

Lockdowns won't kill anybody. Governments are taking measures, for instance allwoing the suspension of consumer loan repayments, so nobody will have to die of a heart attack.
On that front, they're being quite competent this time around, they have learned a lot of lessons from the GFC, ie that the old method of forcing people into extreme austerity (which can kill people) is stupid when you can use tools like quantitative easing without major consequences to your currency and or recovery. QE was a very successful experiment, the US came out of the GFC sooner and stronger than Europe because Europe and Mutti Merkel wanted to pull through with austerity alone and started QEing only much later when Draghi started running the BCE. Eventually Europe realised that both are not mutually exclusive and now Lagarde is launching it early on and with a lot of firepower. It's bold but will be effective in the long run.

What bothers me is that the U.S. is letting air travel continue and isn't enforcing blanket lockdowns.
At the same stage in the epidemic, about a couple of weeks ago, Italy locked down entire communities with heavy restrictions and enforcement measures and then expanded the lockdown to nationwide.
The U.S. is stalling on that and that will make things vastly worse if they don't change soon enough.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1208
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:14 am

Shortselling has been banned in several European countries (Spain, Italy, France Belgium) this week.

https://www.ft.com/content/b1b758d4-682 ... 70cff6e4d3


I followed the markets on Friday and saw vast manipulation, presumably government intervention, going on in Europe. It already started with sharp increases in the Futures.
In fact, after opening, stocks were kept high with some reaching never seen increases of 25% including Airbus and Safran, despite the worsening Covid19 situation. I can't imagine anybody being in the market for a long term long position right now, there is still a lot of downward risk (well, until stocks reach 0 that is).
Carrefour (supermarket retailer) stock was down 0-2% all day despite all of this as it was kept artificially high in the prior days when the rest of the market was being sold.

French stocks fell sharply after 5PM, presumably as institutional buyers started packing their bags for the weekend and perhaps market makers ridded themselves of positions to avoid heading into the weekend with too much in their portfolio?

The US markets then took over and ended deeply in the red, despite following Europe up in early trading.

Next week will be interesting to watch. I expect to see more government intervention, but the floor may fall off the market if big funds decide to take cover.


None of this matters though, I find it really interesting that governments find resources to waste on the stock market when everyone had plenty of time and warning to pull out.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 11993
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:05 am

Some optimism and criticism from the inimitable Dr. Larry Brilliant. This guy was part of the team behind Contagion and is a legend in the field:

...did we get good advice from the president of the United States for the first 12 weeks? No. All we got were lies. Saying it’s fake, by saying this is a Democratic hoax. There are still people today who believe that, to their detriment. Speaking as a public health person, this is the most irresponsible act of an elected official that I've ever witnessed in my lifetime. But what you're hearing now [to self-isolate, close schools, cancel events] is right. Is it going to protect us completely? Is it going to make the world safe forever? No. It's a great thing because we want to spread out the disease over time.

...I hold out hope that we get an antiviral for Covid-19 that is curative, but in addition is prophylactic. It's certainly unproven and it's certainly controversial, and certainly a lot of people are not going to agree with me. But I offer as evidence two papers in 2005, one in Nature and one in Science. They both did mathematical modeling with influenza, to see whether saturation with just Tamiflu of an area around a case of influenza could stop the outbreak. And in both cases, it worked. I also offer as evidence the fact that at one point we thought HIV/AIDS was incurable and a death sentence. Then, some wonderful scientists discovered antiviral drugs, and we've learned that some of those drugs can be given prior to exposure and prevent the disease. Because of the intense interest in getting [Covid-19] conquered, we will put the scientific clout and money and resources behind finding antivirals that have prophylactic or preventive characteristics that can be used in addition to [vaccines].


https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus ... logist/amp
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:46 am

While we were watching things progress in Italy and other hard-hit countries, I think that we overlooked what is going on in the rest of the world.
It's all over the place now and progressing very fast and becoming a disaster.

Find below the countries with between 50 and 2000 confirmed cases:

Norway 1,967
Sweden 1,639
Denmark 1,255
Canada 1,087
Australia 1,051
Malaysia 1,030
Portugal 1,020
Japan 1,007
Brazil 970
Czechia 833
Diamond Princess 712
Israel 705
Ireland 683
Turkey 670
Pakistan 501
Greece 495
Luxembourg 484
Qatar 470
Finland 450
Chile 434
Ecuador 426
Poland 425
Thailand 411
Iceland 409
Singapore 385
Indonesia 369
Saudi Arabia 344
Slovenia 341
Romania 308
Bahrain 298
Egypt 285
Estonia 283
India 270
Peru 263
Philippines 262
Hong Kong 256
Russia 253
Iraq 208
Mexico 203
South Africa 202
Panama 200
Lebanon 177
Kuwait 159
Argentina 158
Colombia 158
San Marino 151
UAE 140
Slovakia 137
Armenia 136
Taiwan 135
Serbia 135
Croatia 130
Bulgaria 127
Costa Rica 113
Latvia 111
Uruguay 110
Algeria 94
Vietnam 91
Bosnia and Herzegovina 89
Morocco 86
Hungary 85
Jordan 85
Faeroe Islands 80
Brunei 78
North Macedonia 76
Andorra 75
Cyprus 75
Sri Lanka 73
Dominican Republic 72
Albania 70
Lithuania 69
Belarus 69
Moldova 66
Venezuela 65
Malta 64
Tunisia 54
Kazakhstan 52
New Zealand 52
Guadeloupe 51
Cambodia 51

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1978
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:15 am

Any news of supermarkets becoming hotspots for new infections?

Who is staffing them? Are the staff getting infected and bringing it home to their families?

How many doctors have been infected so far? Is the PPE inadequate?

Australia has no lockdowns. Social distancing, can it even work? All of the young people are still going out.
 
dobilan
Posts: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 1:48 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:48 am

One of the problems (at least here in Romania) is that while the government impose restrictions that are heavier as the days go by (obviously hurting the economy), they do not target the communication and enforcement to the most risky groups. While medium age, kids and the more educated youngsters stay basically locked in their houses, some young ones are hanging around in the evenings near the blocks in groups of 6-8. Worse still, elderly are walking around like crazy, gather at queues to buy random stuff (stores are usually well stocked except masks and hand disinfectants), gather to debate in parks and so on. I don't understand them. It seems to me they are attracted to this disease like night butterflies to the lamp.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 19043
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:08 am

PixelPilot wrote:
casinterest wrote:
The US numbers are staggering.

Last Friday we were talking about 2,000 ill,
Today there may be over 19,000 ill.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


It will go like this for few days (hopefully not longer)
They started to process more tests.


Just shy of 20,000 cases and over 250 deaths:

Image

Image

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
aerosreenivas
Posts: 147
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:48 am

What is going on right now across the globe is a very bad situation. I pray that there are no more deaths because of this Virus.

By the way, does anyone here feel that this news is true, that in Iran, there are Corona Virus death taking place every 10 minutes?

That sounds so scary.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 19043
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:09 am

aerosreenivas wrote:
What is going on right now across the globe is a very bad situation. I pray that there are no more deaths because of this Virus.

By the way, does anyone here feel that this news is true, that in Iran, there are Corona Virus death taking place every 10 minutes?

That sounds so scary.


I'm afraid your prayers will go unanswered.

A death every 10 minutes is only 144 in a day. Italy has seen over 1,000 in two days (Thursday & Friday).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 6224
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:27 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Find below the countries with between 50 and 2000 confirmed cases:


IMHO, those numbers are next to useless, as they are a result of non-standardized ways of testing and reporting.
Some of those most "remarkable" data:

Israel 705
Ireland 683
Turkey 670 (pop. 80 million)

Pakistan 501 (pop. 212 million)
Greece 495
Luxembourg 484

Singapore 385
Indonesia 369 (pop. 276 million)

Egypt 285 (pop. 100 million)
Estonia 283

Hong Kong 256
Russia 253 (pop. 144 million)
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
Posts: 2039
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2012 5:39 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:56 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
While we were watching things progress in Italy and other hard-hit countries, I think that we overlooked what is going on in the rest of the world.
It's all over the place now and progressing very fast and becoming a disaster.

Find below the countries with between 50 and 2000 confirmed cases:

Norway 1,967
Sweden 1,639
Denmark 1,255
Canada 1,087
Australia 1,051

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Confirmed cases in Sweden are 1746 with 20 deceased*. About 43 percent of the Swedish cases have been infected in Italy or Austria. Of the rest 33 percent
have been infected in Sweden but a majority of those have been infected by people who have been infected abroad. The confirmed cases are only those
who have been confirmed by lab tests. So far the highest amount of new cases happened on 10 March with a small dip towards the end of the week followed by a rise in the first half of this week.

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smi ... iskt-lage/

*I don't have any official statistics but so far from what I've read in various media reports most/all of the deceased have been elderly patients with underlying conditions.

I also don't think it's a coincidence that wealthier countries like Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Canada are high up in the list of confirmed cases.
The winters are long and dark (and very grey this season) and many will go on vacations abroad.

Also on a side not, at the A&E unit where I work (with IT/administration) we've noticed a significant drop in patients the past week or so, sort of like a calm
before the storm kind of feeling, We've also started to do initial triage outside to separate patients with symptoms that could possible be symptoms from
other asymptomatic patients. The first category aren't allowed inside unless absolutely necessary. We have a small tent outside where patients
with respiratory/airways symptoms are examined while the asymptomatic patients are directed inside as usual.
Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:25 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
I sure hope governments are working around the clock prepping for the worst. Because this lockdown will NOT last more than a few weeks. People are going to (rightly) come to the conclusion that the destruction of the world economy is worse than millions being infected. Which is probably what's gonna happen a few weeks after lockdown is lifted

If proper preparation is not taking place, this is all a destructive waste of time. Can you imagine if we have just as many deaths after locking down and destroying the economy as not locking down at all?

I'm not getting a warm and fuzzy from the US government... I sure hope they're preparing more than they appear to be


I second this, great post
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 11993
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:47 pm

Terrible - after claiming he ‘didn’t know about it’, video now confirms 45 commented on cutting an established pandemic response team in 2018. Gotta take responsibility now.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... wsource=fb

The US president has come under fire in recent days for his decision to disband the National Security Council directorate at the White House responsible for planning the US’s preparedness for future pandemics...

...A former director of the unit, Dr Beth Cameron, used an op-ed in The Washington Post to say that “it is clear that eliminating the office has contributed to the federal government’s sluggish domestic response".
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:59 pm

scbriml wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
casinterest wrote:
The US numbers are staggering.

Last Friday we were talking about 2,000 ill,
Today there may be over 19,000 ill.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


It will go like this for few days (hopefully not longer)
They started to process more tests.


Just shy of 20,000 cases and over 250 deaths:

Image

Image

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Don't know, if this trend in infections increases in the US, what would the point be of locking down and 'social distancing'? while thousands get infected, millions lose their jobs. If this keeps up till next week, we will have to question all of this.

IN general this is a socialist wet dream, government telling private enterprise to stop working, government using tax payer money to keep businesses afloat and people with paychecks.

Don't like where this is going, what would the point be of doing all of this saving a few hundred or thousands of lives that would have died nonetheless with the flu at the expense of destroying all the hard work that has cost workers and entrepreneurs years if not decades.

The US federal government needs to come clear on what the plans are soon.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 11993
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:06 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

It will go like this for few days (hopefully not longer)
They started to process more tests.


Just shy of 20,000 cases and over 250 deaths:

Image

Image

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Don't know, if this trend in infections increases in the US, what would the point be of locking down and 'social distancing'? while thousands get infected, millions lose their jobs. If this keeps up till next week, we will have to question all of this.

IN general this is a socialist wet dream, government telling private enterprise to stop working, government using tax payer money to keep businesses afloat and people with paychecks.

Don't like where this is going, what would the point be of doing all of this saving a few hundred or thousands of lives that would have died nonetheless with the flu at the expense of destroying all the hard work that has cost workers and entrepreneurs years if not decades.

The US federal government needs to come clear on what the plans are soon.


'What would be the point?' is a very low information question at this point. There is NOTHING political about what Drs. Fauci and Brix have advised the WH to do.

The science is simple - social distancing is IMPERATIVE to buy time, slow spreading of infections, and give the healthcare system a chance to keep up. Without it, the economic damage would be immense as the healthcare system would become overwhelmed indefinitely. The entire purpose is to reduce the spread down from exponential growth to arithmetic growth, and eventually, a plateau we can recover from until a vaccine is ready.

Here, so simple a child can understand:

Image

Case in point from spanish flu in 1918 - Philadelphia didn't implement controls, and St. Louis did. The difference in death rates was staggering:

Image
Last edited by Aaron747 on Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:11 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Just shy of 20,000 cases and over 250 deaths:

Image

Image

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Don't know, if this trend in infections increases in the US, what would the point be of locking down and 'social distancing'? while thousands get infected, millions lose their jobs. If this keeps up till next week, we will have to question all of this.

IN general this is a socialist wet dream, government telling private enterprise to stop working, government using tax payer money to keep businesses afloat and people with paychecks.

Don't like where this is going, what would the point be of doing all of this saving a few hundred or thousands of lives that would have died nonetheless with the flu at the expense of destroying all the hard work that has cost workers and entrepreneurs years if not decades.

The US federal government needs to come clear on what the plans are soon.


'What would be the point?' is a very low information question at this point.

The science is simple - social distancing is IMPERATIVE to buy time, slow spreading of infections, and give the healthcare system a chance to keep up. Without it, the economic damage would be immense as the healthcare system would become overwhelmed indefinitely. The entire purpose is to reduce the spread down from exponential growth to arithmetic growth, and eventually, a plateau we can recover from until a vaccine is ready.

Here, so simple a child can understand:

Image


I agree with this premise, but in reality is this working? I am saying if we keep this trend for another week or so, all the while stopping the economy, we would need to question this if its worth it.

No point in destroying the economy which in the long term would mean destroying almost every industry, including the health systems, which we will need after this crisis ends.

Remember the vast majority of Americans have health insurance via their job, if this crisis costs millions of jobs, it will be millions of uninsured, furthering the damage.

That's without taking into account farther damage in other aspects of the economy.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:18 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Perhaps we won't hear about the good news because the MSM get more clicks by keeping the hysteria going. The more supermarket brawls the better! :roll:


My newspaper main headline yesterday was how Trump (and Musk) is pushing a drug that can kill people with an overdose! in an OMG!!! tone. Then went on to paint the Chinese as the good guys for trying the same drug. Because....Trump.
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:19 pm

N757ST wrote:
Oh I agree, and it’d immediately jump start the economy. That said, the pace the FDA works, we might not see a study don’t for months. I hope I’m wrong. In theory, if the other studies are correct, that this shortens the disease to 3-5 days, you could have a study done in 2-3 weeks since we know the drug is safe in the first place.


FDA guy said a year.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 11993
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:19 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Don't know, if this trend in infections increases in the US, what would the point be of locking down and 'social distancing'? while thousands get infected, millions lose their jobs. If this keeps up till next week, we will have to question all of this.

IN general this is a socialist wet dream, government telling private enterprise to stop working, government using tax payer money to keep businesses afloat and people with paychecks.

Don't like where this is going, what would the point be of doing all of this saving a few hundred or thousands of lives that would have died nonetheless with the flu at the expense of destroying all the hard work that has cost workers and entrepreneurs years if not decades.

The US federal government needs to come clear on what the plans are soon.


'What would be the point?' is a very low information question at this point.

The science is simple - social distancing is IMPERATIVE to buy time, slow spreading of infections, and give the healthcare system a chance to keep up. Without it, the economic damage would be immense as the healthcare system would become overwhelmed indefinitely. The entire purpose is to reduce the spread down from exponential growth to arithmetic growth, and eventually, a plateau we can recover from until a vaccine is ready.

Here, so simple a child can understand:

Image


I agree with this premise, but in reality is this working? I am saying if we keep this trend for another week or so, all the while stopping the economy, we would need to question this if its worth it.

No point in destroying the economy which in the long term would mean destroying almost every industry, including the health systems, which we will need after this crisis ends.

Remember the vast majority of Americans have health insurance via their job, if this crisis costs millions of jobs, it will be millions of uninsured, furthering the damage.

That's without taking into account farther damage in other aspects of the economy.


It's difficult to know how well it's working without tracing cases and doing testing as much as possible. The data is necessary to know if it's working - there are too many variables in forecasting the curve.

Economic pain was inevitable once containment failed. Singapore, South Korea, etc. understood the stakes.

More from Dr. Larry Brilliant's interview in Wired, which should be required reading for every American:

When will we be able to leave the house and go back to work?

I have a very good retrospect-oscope, but what's needed right now as a prospecto-scope. If this were a tennis match, I would say advantage virus right now. But there's really good news from South Korea—they had less than 100 cases today. China had more cases imported than it had from continuous transmission from Wuhan today. The Chinese model will be very hard for us to follow. We're not going to be locking people up in their apartments, boarding them up. But the South Korea model is one that we could follow. Unfortunately, it requires doing the proportionate number of tests that they did—they did well over a quarter of a million tests. In fact, by the time South Korea had done 200,000 tests, we had probably done less than 1,000.

Now that we've missed the opportunity for early testing, is it too late for testing to make a difference?

Absolutely not. Tests would make a measurable difference. We should be doing a stochastic process random probability sample of the country to find out where the hell the virus really is. Because we don't know. Maybe Mississippi is reporting no cases because it's not looking. How would they know? Zimbabwe reports zero cases because they don't have testing capability, not because they don't have the virus. We need something that looks like a home pregnancy test, that you can do at home.

How will we know when we’re through this?

The world is not going to begin to look normal until three things have happened. One, we figure out whether the distribution of this virus looks like an iceberg, which is one-seventh above the water, or a pyramid, where we see everything. If we're only seeing right now one-seventh of the actual disease because we're not testing enough, and we're just blind to it, then we're in a world of hurt. Two, we have a treatment that works, a vaccine or antiviral. And three, maybe most important, we begin to see large numbers of people—in particular nurses, home health care providers, doctors, policemen, firemen, and teachers who have had the disease—are immune, and we have tested them to know that they are not infectious any longer. And we have a system that identifies them, either a concert wristband or a card with their photograph and some kind of a stamp on it. Then we can be comfortable sending our children back to school, because we know the teacher is not infectious.

And instead of saying "No, you can't visit anybody in nursing home," we have a group of people who are certified that they work with elderly and vulnerable people, and nurses who can go back into the hospitals and dentists who can open your mouth and look in your mouth and not be giving you the virus. When those three things happen, that's when normalcy will return.


https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus ... miologist/
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:24 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

'What would be the point?' is a very low information question at this point.

The science is simple - social distancing is IMPERATIVE to buy time, slow spreading of infections, and give the healthcare system a chance to keep up. Without it, the economic damage would be immense as the healthcare system would become overwhelmed indefinitely. The entire purpose is to reduce the spread down from exponential growth to arithmetic growth, and eventually, a plateau we can recover from until a vaccine is ready.

Here, so simple a child can understand:

Image


I agree with this premise, but in reality is this working? I am saying if we keep this trend for another week or so, all the while stopping the economy, we would need to question this if its worth it.

No point in destroying the economy which in the long term would mean destroying almost every industry, including the health systems, which we will need after this crisis ends.

Remember the vast majority of Americans have health insurance via their job, if this crisis costs millions of jobs, it will be millions of uninsured, furthering the damage.

That's without taking into account farther damage in other aspects of the economy.


It's difficult to know how well it's working without tracing cases and doing testing as much as possible. The data is necessary to know if it's working - there are too many variables in forecasting the curve.

Economic pain was inevitable once containment failed. Singapore, South Korea, etc. understood the stakes.

More from Dr. Larry Brilliant's interview in Wired, which should be required reading for every American:

When will we be able to leave the house and go back to work?

I have a very good retrospect-oscope, but what's needed right now as a prospecto-scope. If this were a tennis match, I would say advantage virus right now. But there's really good news from South Korea—they had less than 100 cases today. China had more cases imported than it had from continuous transmission from Wuhan today. The Chinese model will be very hard for us to follow. We're not going to be locking people up in their apartments, boarding them up. But the South Korea model is one that we could follow. Unfortunately, it requires doing the proportionate number of tests that they did—they did well over a quarter of a million tests. In fact, by the time South Korea had done 200,000 tests, we had probably done less than 1,000.

Now that we've missed the opportunity for early testing, is it too late for testing to make a difference?

Absolutely not. Tests would make a measurable difference. We should be doing a stochastic process random probability sample of the country to find out where the hell the virus really is. Because we don't know. Maybe Mississippi is reporting no cases because it's not looking. How would they know? Zimbabwe reports zero cases because they don't have testing capability, not because they don't have the virus. We need something that looks like a home pregnancy test, that you can do at home.

How will we know when we’re through this?

The world is not going to begin to look normal until three things have happened. One, we figure out whether the distribution of this virus looks like an iceberg, which is one-seventh above the water, or a pyramid, where we see everything. If we're only seeing right now one-seventh of the actual disease because we're not testing enough, and we're just blind to it, then we're in a world of hurt. Two, we have a treatment that works, a vaccine or antiviral. And three, maybe most important, we begin to see large numbers of people—in particular nurses, home health care providers, doctors, policemen, firemen, and teachers who have had the disease—are immune, and we have tested them to know that they are not infectious any longer. And we have a system that identifies them, either a concert wristband or a card with their photograph and some kind of a stamp on it. Then we can be comfortable sending our children back to school, because we know the teacher is not infectious.

And instead of saying "No, you can't visit anybody in nursing home," we have a group of people who are certified that they work with elderly and vulnerable people, and nurses who can go back into the hospitals and dentists who can open your mouth and look in your mouth and not be giving you the virus. When those three things happen, that's when normalcy will return.[/b]


https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus ... miologist/


This is more than 'economic pain'. Never in the history of this country or perhaps in recent memory of western society has the governments called for closure of entire economy as right now.

This is not your typical economic pain from a hurricane, earthquake or even a war.

I know perhaps the WSJ is not your cup of tea, but here they share what I think is the larger picture

https://www.wsj.com/articles/rethinking ... 1584659154
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8928
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:25 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Just shy of 20,000 cases and over 250 deaths:

Image

Image

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Don't know, if this trend in infections increases in the US, what would the point be of locking down and 'social distancing'? while thousands get infected, millions lose their jobs. If this keeps up till next week, we will have to question all of this.

IN general this is a socialist wet dream, government telling private enterprise to stop working, government using tax payer money to keep businesses afloat and people with paychecks.

Don't like where this is going, what would the point be of doing all of this saving a few hundred or thousands of lives that would have died nonetheless with the flu at the expense of destroying all the hard work that has cost workers and entrepreneurs years if not decades.

The US federal government needs to come clear on what the plans are soon.


'What would be the point?' is a very low information question at this point. There is NOTHING political about what Drs. Fauci and Brix have advised the WH to do.

The science is simple - social distancing is IMPERATIVE to buy time, slow spreading of infections, and give the healthcare system a chance to keep up. Without it, the economic damage would be immense as the healthcare system would become overwhelmed indefinitely. The entire purpose is to reduce the spread down from exponential growth to arithmetic growth, and eventually, a plateau we can recover from until a vaccine is ready.

Here, so simple a child can understand:

Image

Case in point from spanish flu in 1918 - Philadelphia didn't implement controls, and St. Louis did. The difference in death rates was staggering:

Image

Unfortunately, I have a feeling the dotted line is below the tops of both curves and isn't really rising much while we are in lockdown.

Like I said, communication from the administration has been poor. What specifically is being done now to increase ICU capacity? How many more ventilators are we importing or producing? What is the projected "peak of the curve" and is our ICU capacity going to be able to handle it? Can it handle a second spike worst-case scenario next fall without going into lockdown again?

Without these answers, people are going to question whether this lockdown is worth it or if we should just let everyone die off now (if they're gonna die anyway, why not now instead of destroying the economy too?) And if there is uncertainty whether we can handle a secondary or tertiary spike, the economy is going to limp towards recovery at best, crash again at worst.

The fact that many people (on both sides of the political spectrum from what I've personally seen) still don't understand the flattening of the curve and why we're doing what we are doing (in the broadest sense) shows how bad the communication is

So sure, we can give Trump credit for a few of the things he did. Mostly, it was too little too late. I have no problem praising what he does right... He's standing on a stool (what he did right) in a giant pit (what he did wrong) and has a long way to go. And who knows, maybe he's taking the steps necessary to overcome this... but who knows? He's not telling anyone besides his usual vague remarks. I just hope the right people are doing the right things or all we are doing is wasting our time
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 11321
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:25 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Don't know, if this trend in infections increases in the US, what would the point be of locking down and 'social distancing'? while thousands get infected, millions lose their jobs. If this keeps up till next week, we will have to question all of this.

IN general this is a socialist wet dream, government telling private enterprise to stop working, government using tax payer money to keep businesses afloat and people with paychecks.

Don't like where this is going, what would the point be of doing all of this saving a few hundred or thousands of lives that would have died nonetheless with the flu at the expense of destroying all the hard work that has cost workers and entrepreneurs years if not decades.

The US federal government needs to come clear on what the plans are soon.


'What would be the point?' is a very low information question at this point.

The science is simple - social distancing is IMPERATIVE to buy time, slow spreading of infections, and give the healthcare system a chance to keep up. Without it, the economic damage would be immense as the healthcare system would become overwhelmed indefinitely. The entire purpose is to reduce the spread down from exponential growth to arithmetic growth, and eventually, a plateau we can recover from until a vaccine is ready.

Here, so simple a child can understand:

Image


I agree with this premise, but in reality is this working? I am saying if we keep this trend for another week or so, all the while stopping the economy, we would need to question this if its worth it.

No point in destroying the economy which in the long term would mean destroying almost every industry, including the health systems, which we will need after this crisis ends.

Remember the vast majority of Americans have health insurance via their job, if this crisis costs millions of jobs, it will be millions of uninsured, furthering the damage.

That's without taking into account farther damage in other aspects of the economy.




The economy will suffer if we cannot treat the sick all at once. People are not going to just stay home and be ill. They will overwhelm the hospitals. There will be millions of jobs lost, this is what happens in unexpected downturns in the economy. The US will run a deficit far beyond what we currently are.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:33 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

'What would be the point?' is a very low information question at this point.

The science is simple - social distancing is IMPERATIVE to buy time, slow spreading of infections, and give the healthcare system a chance to keep up. Without it, the economic damage would be immense as the healthcare system would become overwhelmed indefinitely. The entire purpose is to reduce the spread down from exponential growth to arithmetic growth, and eventually, a plateau we can recover from until a vaccine is ready.

Here, so simple a child can understand:

Image


I agree with this premise, but in reality is this working? I am saying if we keep this trend for another week or so, all the while stopping the economy, we would need to question this if its worth it.

No point in destroying the economy which in the long term would mean destroying almost every industry, including the health systems, which we will need after this crisis ends.

Remember the vast majority of Americans have health insurance via their job, if this crisis costs millions of jobs, it will be millions of uninsured, furthering the damage.

That's without taking into account farther damage in other aspects of the economy.




The economy will suffer if we cannot treat the sick all at once. People are not going to just stay home and be ill. They will overwhelm the hospitals. There will be millions of jobs lost, this is what happens in unexpected downturns in the economy. The US will run a deficit far beyond what we currently are.


Sure, I am all in favor of saving each life, one person dying is one too much.

But if you take a look at the present situation we are at 270+ dead. By now millions have already lost their jobs or reduced their earnings to be on a difficult financial situation.

This is not your mere 'economic suffer' I am looking towards the future here and not only a recession but a depression, worse than the 1929. One that will take many many years to bounce back, for closing the economy for a month or longer. Would saving thousands worth millions down the line dying anyways?

That's all I am asking. IF by the end of next week the trends flattens, then, it was worth it, if not, what's the point?
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:35 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Don't know, if this trend in infections increases in the US, what would the point be of locking down and 'social distancing'? while thousands get infected, millions lose their jobs. If this keeps up till next week, we will have to question all of this.

IN general this is a socialist wet dream, government telling private enterprise to stop working, government using tax payer money to keep businesses afloat and people with paychecks.

Don't like where this is going, what would the point be of doing all of this saving a few hundred or thousands of lives that would have died nonetheless with the flu at the expense of destroying all the hard work that has cost workers and entrepreneurs years if not decades.

The US federal government needs to come clear on what the plans are soon.


'What would be the point?' is a very low information question at this point. There is NOTHING political about what Drs. Fauci and Brix have advised the WH to do.

The science is simple - social distancing is IMPERATIVE to buy time, slow spreading of infections, and give the healthcare system a chance to keep up. Without it, the economic damage would be immense as the healthcare system would become overwhelmed indefinitely. The entire purpose is to reduce the spread down from exponential growth to arithmetic growth, and eventually, a plateau we can recover from until a vaccine is ready.

Here, so simple a child can understand:

Image

Case in point from spanish flu in 1918 - Philadelphia didn't implement controls, and St. Louis did. The difference in death rates was staggering:

Image

Unfortunately, I have a feeling the dotted line is below the tops of both curves and isn't really rising much while we are in lockdown.

Like I said, communication from the administration has been poor. What specifically is being done now to increase ICU capacity? How many more ventilators are we importing or producing? What is the projected "peak of the curve" and is our ICU capacity going to be able to handle it? Can it handle a second spike worst-case scenario next fall without going into lockdown again?

Without these answers, people are going to question whether this lockdown is worth it or if we should just let everyone die off now (if they're gonna die anyway, why not now instead of destroying the economy too?) And if there is uncertainty whether we can handle a secondary or tertiary spike, the economy is going to limp towards recovery at best, crash again at worst.

The fact that many people (on both sides of the political spectrum from what I've personally seen) still don't understand the flattening of the curve and why we're doing what we are doing (in the broadest sense) shows how bad the communication is

So sure, we can give Trump credit for a few of the things he did. Mostly, it was too little too late. I have no problem praising what he does right... He's standing on a stool (what he did right) in a giant pit (what he did wrong) and has a long way to go. And who knows, maybe he's taking the steps necessary to overcome this... but who knows? He's not telling anyone besides his usual vague remarks. I just hope the right people are doing the right things or all we are doing is wasting our time


Right now I am not a conservative or a republican. I am just a human being. I am criticizing Trump and our leaders because we seem to be on not so clear path on moving forward with this. Clearly testing has been increased perhaps that's why the spike, but if by the end of next week we keep rising and rising, what would the point be of this?

Major cities in this country are on lock-down already, so we would have to see how long would this be.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 11993
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:44 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

I agree with this premise, but in reality is this working? I am saying if we keep this trend for another week or so, all the while stopping the economy, we would need to question this if its worth it.

No point in destroying the economy which in the long term would mean destroying almost every industry, including the health systems, which we will need after this crisis ends.

Remember the vast majority of Americans have health insurance via their job, if this crisis costs millions of jobs, it will be millions of uninsured, furthering the damage.

That's without taking into account farther damage in other aspects of the economy.




The economy will suffer if we cannot treat the sick all at once. People are not going to just stay home and be ill. They will overwhelm the hospitals. There will be millions of jobs lost, this is what happens in unexpected downturns in the economy. The US will run a deficit far beyond what we currently are.


Sure, I am all in favor of saving each life, one person dying is one too much.

But if you take a look at the present situation we are at 270+ dead. By now millions have already lost their jobs or reduced their earnings to be on a difficult financial situation.

This is not your mere 'economic suffer' I am looking towards the future here and not only a recession but a depression, worse than the 1929. One that will take many many years to bounce back, for closing the economy for a month or longer. Would saving thousands worth millions down the line dying anyways?

That's all I am asking. IF by the end of next week the trends flattens, then, it was worth it, if not, what's the point?


Buying time is the imperative. We lost a. the chance to contain and b. the chance to test early - it's already 2:00 warning in the 4th quarter and the opposing team is inside our 50. Time to really hunker down and focus. Distancing will have an impact and highlight where emerging clusters are - if it didn't work epidemiologists wouldn't be pushing it so hard. But the administration needs to seriously get their shit together with testing and equipping hospitals, or the actual results will be nebulous for some time.

In any case, how do you propose to get the economy just up and running as-normal? Everyone over 50 is at heightened risk - men especially if the latest data is correct - at least until a vaccine is ready in however many months-to-a-year. Infected people are inevitably going to go to work, do their normal activities, visit their parents, etc. Lots of sick-outs, lots of hospitalizations, and people without infections but other non-emergency medical issues will not be able to have surgery and other needs addressed in cities/hospitals with major COVID-19 issues, so people in those situations will be missing work too. And what are we supposed to tell medical professionals - who have taken an oath to save lives to the best of their ability - and are working tirelessly at it all the time? If people want to just start drawing lines in the sand for who doctors should turn away, because the economy is a higher priority than strangers' relatives - that would have to come to a national referendum or something as the moral challenge of our time.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:51 pm

Aaron747 wrote:

In any case, how do you propose to get the economy just up and running as-normal? Everyone over 50 is at heightened risk - men especially if the latest data is correct - at least until a vaccine is ready in however many months-to-a-year. Infected people are inevitably going to go to work, do their normal activities, visit their parents, etc. And what are we supposed to tell medical professionals - who have taken an oath to save lives to the best of their ability - and are working tirelessly at it all the time?


You know very well I am not expert in the medical field.

What I think is based on economic history, and the way the economy works, if you stop this country from working for so long, the damage will almost not be reparable so much to the detriment of the same health we are trying to protect.

I wholeheartedly agree that hospital capacity should be increased while everyone is hunkering down, but that will take more time possible, this is a huge country.

I can see having everyone who is vulnerable to stay home, the rest go on with their lives, exercise the precautions, perhaps schools remain closed, large gatherings (stadiums) but all the rest needs to move on until we can have some good medical treatment and the hospital capacity is ready.

But extending this beyond a month is taking this to unprecedented and never before seen situation in the history of this world.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19043
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:55 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
IN general this is a socialist wet dream, government telling private enterprise to stop working, government using tax payer money to keep businesses afloat and people with paychecks.


You seem to have a strange idea of how socialism works in most countries.

Let’s take a real-World example that’s close to my heart. My small local pub is run by three brothers who brew their own beer and have a wood-fired pizza oven. It’s a great place and we and our neighbours love it. They have now been forced to close by direct action of the government. Do you think its unreasonable for that government to support them and help them get through this? They are just one of dozens of small, independent businesses in my home town that will struggle to survive without help.

Extraordinary times require extraordinary measures.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
User avatar
DIRECTFLT
Posts: 2260
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:00 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:56 pm

scbriml wrote:
DIRECTFLT wrote:
Illinois governor imposes stay-at-home order to curb virus

https://apnews.com/3f95f06cca841a929f46535bc9cc5b43


The alternative is idiots like these helping to spread the damn thing. I wonder if some posters here are among them protesting about tyranny, rights and liberty?

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-ca ... oronavirus


Trump eyes two-week quarantine, only drug and grocery stores open

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wash ... tores-open

We all need a two-week time out.
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:58 pm

scbriml wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
IN general this is a socialist wet dream, government telling private enterprise to stop working, government using tax payer money to keep businesses afloat and people with paychecks.


You seem to have a strange idea of how socialism works in most countries.

Let’s take a real-World example that’s close to my heart. My small local pub is run by three brothers who brew their own beer and have a wood-fired pizza oven. It’s a great place and we and our neighbours love it. They have now been forced to close by direct action of the government. Do you think its unreasonable for that government to support them and help them get through this? They are just one of dozens of small, independent businesses in my home town that will struggle to survive without help.

Extraordinary times require extraordinary measures.


I am not against the government 'compensating' businesses. But how long would the government do this? this corona-virus crisis will go on indefinitely. The government only has so much cash till they will eventually run out if they do the same to all businesses?
The analogy is from previous past socialist experiences of government mandating and government putting public money on businesses as a bit socialistic in my opinion.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 11993
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:08 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
IN general this is a socialist wet dream, government telling private enterprise to stop working, government using tax payer money to keep businesses afloat and people with paychecks.


You seem to have a strange idea of how socialism works in most countries.

Let’s take a real-World example that’s close to my heart. My small local pub is run by three brothers who brew their own beer and have a wood-fired pizza oven. It’s a great place and we and our neighbours love it. They have now been forced to close by direct action of the government. Do you think its unreasonable for that government to support them and help them get through this? They are just one of dozens of small, independent businesses in my home town that will struggle to survive without help.

Extraordinary times require extraordinary measures.


I am not against the government 'compensating' businesses. But how long would the government do this? this corona-virus crisis will go on indefinitely. The government only has so much cash till they will eventually run out if they do the same to all businesses?
The analogy is from previous past socialist experiences of government mandating and government putting public money on businesses as a bit socialistic in my opinion.


We did it in 2008 for the Wall Street institutions that were 'too big to fail' - in this case, it may be that the entire system is 'too big to fail'. Capitalism runs on liquidity and there just isn't enough of it naturally to sustain this kind of shutdown. If we had real leadership, perhaps someone would already be urging all of the G20 central bankers to get together and agree on a massive coordinated money printing effort so that exchange rates stabilize in the interim while governments prop up businesses. I also don't understand why a sweeping effort to halt all mortgage and rent payments hasn't already been put in place - job losses are already mounting as of this week.

Some good points in your other posts though - there are no easy answers. If we can get the curve flattened to a place the public health specialists are comfortable with, I think it would be feasible to get things up and running again and sequester people over 50 with some hard limitations until a vaccine is ready. Bottom line - without better healthcare system capacity, it's going to be an economic storm either way.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:18 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

You seem to have a strange idea of how socialism works in most countries.

Let’s take a real-World example that’s close to my heart. My small local pub is run by three brothers who brew their own beer and have a wood-fired pizza oven. It’s a great place and we and our neighbours love it. They have now been forced to close by direct action of the government. Do you think its unreasonable for that government to support them and help them get through this? They are just one of dozens of small, independent businesses in my home town that will struggle to survive without help.

Extraordinary times require extraordinary measures.


I am not against the government 'compensating' businesses. But how long would the government do this? this corona-virus crisis will go on indefinitely. The government only has so much cash till they will eventually run out if they do the same to all businesses?
The analogy is from previous past socialist experiences of government mandating and government putting public money on businesses as a bit socialistic in my opinion.


We did it in 2008 for the Wall Street institutions that were 'too big to fail' - in this case, it may be that the entire system is 'too big to fail'. Capitalism runs on liquidity and there just isn't enough of it naturally to sustain this kind of shutdown. If we had real leadership, perhaps someone would already be urging all of the G20 central bankers to get together and agree on a massive coordinated money printing effort so that exchange rates stabilize in the interim while governments prop up businesses. I also don't understand why a sweeping effort to halt all mortgage and rent payments hasn't already been put in place - job losses are already mounting as of this week.

Some good points in your other posts though - there are no easy answers. If we can get the curve flattened to a place the public health specialists are comfortable with, I think it would be feasible to get things up and running again and sequester people over 50 with some hard limitations until a vaccine is ready. Bottom line - without better healthcare system capacity, it's going to be an economic storm either way.


I would have traded 2008 for this in a heartbeat. This is all industries. Disclaimer my industry is not being hurt by this, in fact the contrary. In any case, I have family outside of my industry, I have family members who are in the 'vulnerable' section of this virus. My point of view is in general. Lets see how it goes.

I agree all G20 nations should convene and agree on a global solution. I am not a globalist, but in reality this is a connected world, no way around it.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 19043
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:21 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
The government only has so much cash till they will eventually run out if they do the same to all businesses?


The government just prints more money. America was projected to have a deficit of nearly 11 Trillion dollars from 2009 through this year. What real difference will it make to add a couple more trillion to that?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:32 pm

scbriml wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
The government only has so much cash till they will eventually run out if they do the same to all businesses?


The government just prints more money. America was projected to have a deficit of nearly 11 Trillion dollars from 2009 through this year. What real difference will it make to add a couple more trillion to that?


You do that to the detriment of inflation, then what ever you have will lose value.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8288
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:45 pm

Over the last two days, the number of +ve cases in Michigan jumped from 110 to 549, This is because of two hospital groups started testing thru drive-thrus. Authorities say testing is still prioritized and not enough testing is being done.

A snapshot from one Michigan county (Oakland)
+ve cases - 229
Deaths - 1
Age range: 7 months - 92 years
Avg age 54
Median Age 27

Unlike in the past, there are more cases of the younger population. It is possible senior citizens isolated themselves but community spread continues in the younger population.
All posts are just opinions.

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