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frmrCapCadet
Posts: 5051
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:14 pm

Here are some precautions which should enable industry to slowly start up. I am not an expert and welcome corrections or additions. As I understand and am reading much of this comes from U of WA health people and what seems to be happening in Naval Base Kitsap.

Sick people should stay home (and this entails generous sick pay)
People should be monitored, say on coming to work, once during the day, and at the end of the day. (this could be self monitoring)
Symptoms monitored: temperature, coughs and sneezes (although I have read the later is not a symptom), and respiratory distress
Redesign work place to eliminate all unnecessary worker contacts, i.e., engineer in 6 foot social distancing whenever possible
Testing (US is still doing very poorly at this), if a person needs testing, they and co-workers need to be put on home leave until negative results come back. Desperate need for ultra fast and fairly accurate testing. It may be coming.

While pre-symptomatic spreading is possible, it may be significantly less than post-symptomatic. This would be a significant distinction.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1423
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:21 pm

I have to say, we are all shocked by this pandemic, but I think the world should at least be ready for the second wave which may be coming by the fall, if this one subsides. That one I think can be the most lethal, if unprepared. Hopefully by then the world would be ready and the health care system capacity increased.

I really don't believe we should again close up the world again in the fall for this.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16015
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:29 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
I have to say, we are all shocked by this pandemic, but I think the world should at least be ready for the second wave which may be coming by the fall, if this one subsides. That one I think can be the most lethal, if unprepared. Hopefully by then the world would be ready and the health care system capacity increased.

I really don't believe we should again close up the world again in the fall for this.


As long as leaders follow and support the science, the damage and inconveniences can be mitigated. We are seeing firsthand the cost of ignoring or thinking one ‘knows better’ than the experts.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1276
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:40 pm

Some good news from Germany. The spread of Coronavirus seems to slow down in Germany. So the high number of tests performed (and high number of early identified cases), the first measurements to slow it and of course, that many/most people were more careful, (like regular wash your hands, stay in some distance to others e.g.) seems to do the job, to slow it (not to solve it).
https://www.businessinsider.de/wissenschaft/coronavirus-infektionen-anstieg-verlangsamt-deutschland/

Still in comparison to the identified total number of cases low number of death (just as so many have been Coronavirus cases have been identified by the tests), compared to other countries....

It seems, the healthcare system in Germany will not break down as Germany has additional far the highest total number and number/100.000 of intensive care beds without and with ventilators in Europe and up to the highest in the world. It was in 2017: 28.000 (34/100.000) intensive care, of them 25.000 (28/100.000) with ventilators. All intensive care beds without have been now upgraded and many thousands new intensive care beds with ventilators have been assembled at hospitals (and 10.000 additional ventilators have been ordered at Dräger, to be delivered till end of this year). Additional emergency hospitals are now build in fair halls (as these are big and empty, as all fairs are cancelled) e.g., hospital staff has been re-trained for intensive care department e.g.
(For your information: US has also around 34 intensive care beds/100.000; UK has just only 6, Denmark has 6, Italy has 12 to 13, France 12, Spain 10....average in Europe is something around 13).
So Germany is well prepared now.

And to all in US; Europe has had the ski resort Ischgl in Austria and the ski resorts in northern Italy, from there the Coronavirus has spread through Europe, these were our superspreader locations in Europe with thousands coming back with Coronavirus. You will have now your Spring Break and the thousands with Coronavirus coming back.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1423
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:40 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
I have to say, we are all shocked by this pandemic, but I think the world should at least be ready for the second wave which may be coming by the fall, if this one subsides. That one I think can be the most lethal, if unprepared. Hopefully by then the world would be ready and the health care system capacity increased.

I really don't believe we should again close up the world again in the fall for this.


As long as leaders follow and support the science, the damage and inconveniences can be mitigated. We are seeing firsthand the cost of ignoring or thinking one ‘knows better’ than the experts.


The main 'experts', namely the WHO, said in mid January that coronavirus can't be transmitted person to person. At that time since China did not allow foreign scientist to enter China and find out, the WHO was the main source of 'expert' input.

This virus caught everyone by surprise. If you can revise this same thread early on, I was one of the first to actually participate on it, and say that I was skeptical of this being equivalent to the flu, I was one of the few who doubted China's downplaying it. Our leaders in the western world were not ready and did not take it seriously, from Europe to America, everywhere. Right now is all good to speak with hindsight, Trump fucked up the message early on, but to be fair what could have been different? Italy? Europe.

Believe me I am not happy with Trump's management early on, but I am pretty sure any other person who would have been president wouldn't have prevented the current situation. This is unprecedented.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16015
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:48 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
I have to say, we are all shocked by this pandemic, but I think the world should at least be ready for the second wave which may be coming by the fall, if this one subsides. That one I think can be the most lethal, if unprepared. Hopefully by then the world would be ready and the health care system capacity increased.

I really don't believe we should again close up the world again in the fall for this.


As long as leaders follow and support the science, the damage and inconveniences can be mitigated. We are seeing firsthand the cost of ignoring or thinking one ‘knows better’ than the experts.


The main 'experts', namely the WHO, said in mid January that coronavirus can't be transmitted person to person. At that time since China did not allow foreign scientist to enter China and find out, the WHO was the main source of 'expert' input.

This virus caught everyone by surprise. If you can revise this same thread early on, I was one of the first to actually participate on it, and say that I was skeptical of this being equivalent to the flu, I was one of the few who doubted China's downplaying it. Our leaders in the western world were not ready and did not take it seriously, from Europe to America, everywhere. Right now is all good to speak with hindsight, Trump fucked up the message early on, but to be fair what could have been different? Italy? Europe.

Believe me I am not happy with Trump's management early on, but I am pretty sure any other person who would have been president wouldn't have prevented the current situation. This is unprecedented.


Trump's failure was massive, but it's not only about him, or the compromised WHO. We have incredible experts and there are organizations other than the WHO. The collective knowledge and know-how has been there, and prominent voices have been LOUD about the need for preparedness for over a decade. There is no excuse for not being ready other than ignorance and lack of political will. In a sense this is also a failure of society. This is what happens when we turn away from science as a society and prioritize other things instead. Science gave us success in Apollo, the semiconductor, the polio vaccine, GPS etc. This is a valuable lesson that our society should be on a train where the first car is populated by scientists and engineers, not evangelical leaders, reality TV, and keeping up with the Joneses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNhiHf84P9c

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI

We need to shame and eventually eliminate anti-science garbage like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ql73Hmbno40
Last edited by Aaron747 on Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16015
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:50 pm

T4thH wrote:
Some good news from Germany. The spread of Coronavirus seems to slow down in Germany. So the high number of tests performed (and high number of early identified cases), the first measurements to slow it and of course, that many/most people were more careful, (like regular wash your hands, stay in some distance to others e.g.) seems to do the job, to slow it (not to solve it).
https://www.businessinsider.de/wissenschaft/coronavirus-infektionen-anstieg-verlangsamt-deutschland/

Still in comparison to the identified total number of cases low number of death (just as so many have been Coronavirus cases have been identified by the tests), compared to other countries....

It seems, the healthcare system in Germany will not break down as Germany has additional far the highest total number and number/100.000 of intensive care beds without and with ventilators in Europe and up to the highest in the world. It was in 2017: 28.000 (34/100.000) intensive care, of them 25.000 (28/100.000) with ventilators. All intensive care beds without have been now upgraded and many thousands new intensive care beds with ventilators have been assembled at hospitals (and 10.000 additional ventilators have been ordered at Dräger, to be delivered till end of this year). Additional emergency hospitals are now build in fair halls (as these are big and empty, as all fairs are cancelled) e.g., hospital staff has been re-trained for intensive care department e.g.
(For your information: US has also around 34 intensive care beds/100.000; UK has just only 6, Denmark has 6, Italy has 12 to 13, France 12, Spain 10....average in Europe is something around 13).
So Germany is well prepared now.

And to all in US; Europe has had the ski resort Ischgl in Austria and the ski resorts in northern Italy, from there the Coronavirus has spread through Europe, these were our superspreader locations in Europe with thousands coming back with Coronavirus. You will have now your Spring Break and the thousands with Coronavirus coming back.


Excellent news for Deutschland. Sobering comments about spring break :irked:
 
T4thH
Posts: 1276
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:00 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
T4thH wrote:
Some good news from Germany. The spread of Coronavirus seems to slow down in Germany. So the high number of tests performed (and high number of early identified cases), the first measurements to slow it and of course, that many/most people were more careful, (like regular wash your hands, stay in some distance to others e.g.) seems to do the job, to slow it (not to solve it).
https://www.businessinsider.de/wissenschaft/coronavirus-infektionen-anstieg-verlangsamt-deutschland/

Still in comparison to the identified total number of cases low number of death (just as so many have been Coronavirus cases have been identified by the tests), compared to other countries....

It seems, the healthcare system in Germany will not break down as Germany has additional far the highest total number and number/100.000 of intensive care beds without and with ventilators in Europe and up to the highest in the world. It was in 2017: 28.000 (34/100.000) intensive care, of them 25.000 (28/100.000) with ventilators. All intensive care beds without have been now upgraded and many thousands new intensive care beds with ventilators have been assembled at hospitals (and 10.000 additional ventilators have been ordered at Dräger, to be delivered till end of this year). Additional emergency hospitals are now build in fair halls (as these are big and empty, as all fairs are cancelled) e.g., hospital staff has been re-trained for intensive care department e.g.
(For your information: US has also around 34 intensive care beds/100.000; UK has just only 6, Denmark has 6, Italy has 12 to 13, France 12, Spain 10....average in Europe is something around 13).
So Germany is well prepared now.

And to all in US; Europe has had the ski resort Ischgl in Austria and the ski resorts in northern Italy, from there the Coronavirus has spread through Europe, these were our superspreader locations in Europe with thousands coming back with Coronavirus. You will have now your Spring Break and the thousands with Coronavirus coming back.


Excellent news for Deutschland. Sobering comments about spring break :irked:


And as just typed, correction by RKI: The numbers were just incomplete and some News-services were too fast. I had already waited for several hours, to verify, that it will not corrected and I will announce wrong news. I really hate this, I have really tried to avoid this.
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/coronavirus-verwirrung-um-fallzahlen-vom-robert-koch-institut-a-1d79a29e-a03a-444c-b2f6-bcbdb6c18bf3
Just completed typing and send, checked the news and....Just updated by RKI, no slow down.

I really will like to type now some not-nice words....
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1423
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:06 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

As long as leaders follow and support the science, the damage and inconveniences can be mitigated. We are seeing firsthand the cost of ignoring or thinking one ‘knows better’ than the experts.


The main 'experts', namely the WHO, said in mid January that coronavirus can't be transmitted person to person. At that time since China did not allow foreign scientist to enter China and find out, the WHO was the main source of 'expert' input.

This virus caught everyone by surprise. If you can revise this same thread early on, I was one of the first to actually participate on it, and say that I was skeptical of this being equivalent to the flu, I was one of the few who doubted China's downplaying it. Our leaders in the western world were not ready and did not take it seriously, from Europe to America, everywhere. Right now is all good to speak with hindsight, Trump fucked up the message early on, but to be fair what could have been different? Italy? Europe.

Believe me I am not happy with Trump's management early on, but I am pretty sure any other person who would have been president wouldn't have prevented the current situation. This is unprecedented.


Trump's failure was massive, but it's not only about him, or the compromised WHO. We have incredible experts and there are organizations other than the WHO. The collective knowledge and know-how has been there, and prominent voices have been LOUD about the need for preparedness for over a decade. There is no excuse for not being ready other than ignorance and lack of political will. In a sense this is also a failure of society. This is what happens when we turn away from science as a society and prioritize other things instead. Science gave us success in Apollo, the semiconductor, the polio vaccine, GPS etc. This is a valuable lesson that our society should be on a train where the first car is populated by scientists and engineers, not evangelical leaders, reality TV, and keeping up with the Joneses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNhiHf84P9c

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI

We need to shame and eventually eliminate anti-science garbage like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ql73Hmbno40


You got to give credit to Trump who has been following the advise of the experts at this very moment, so much so that I think he is putting too much seriousness that the economy might even collapse. I believe they should be working on a strategy moving forward after we end the 15 days, I am pretty sure the experts will tell him to extend it, but I really don't think we should collapse the economy farther with more time extending this, at the end don't know if keeping the economy closed would be worth it if in the long run the damage might be much severe than a few thousands dying.

Expanding hospital infrastructure, finding drugs and a vaccine should be the priority while the country moves on. We can't keep this situation going for months.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 14759
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:20 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Dutch minister of health resigned after collapsing of fatigue during a hearing concerning Coronavirus in the chamber.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOYwGtSKIL4

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/d ... -collapse/

Tough times for politicians too.


Resigning sends the wrong message though, of capitulation.
 
727LOVER
Posts: 8633
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2001 12:22 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:28 pm

Didn't Alanis Morissette have song about this?



Trump Administration Considering Opening Obamacare Enrollment Amid Pandemic

https://www.yahoo.com/now/trump-obamaca ... 44181.html
 
AeroVega
Posts: 374
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2007 4:32 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:36 pm

Aesma wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Dutch minister of health resigned after collapsing of fatigue during a hearing concerning Coronavirus in the chamber.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOYwGtSKIL4

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/d ... -collapse/

Tough times for politicians too.


Resigning sends the wrong message though, of capitulation.


Not really. It sends the message that a stronger person should take over, and that's exactly what has happened.
 
edmountain
Posts: 235
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2014 10:00 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:37 pm

Jouhou wrote:
...

Wtf does Azithromycin, an antibiotic, have to do with anything?

...

Jouhou, I know you like to present yourself as the resident microbiologist but in this particular case your lack of experience is revealing itself. Azithromycin is indeed an antibiotic but it has long been known to have potent immunomodulatory and antiinflammatory effects; this is a class effect that is shared by all macrolides.

The clinical utility of azithromycin in this regard is illustrated by evidence based on randomized control trials that shows that azithromycin, when taken on a long-term basis, is effective in reducing frequency of exacerbations, hospitalizations, and duration of hospital stay in patients with COPD that is refractory despite optimal therapy. There is also evidence that azithromycin may have therapeutic effects in acute infections and even extra-pulmonary disease such as osteomyelitis. Again, for all of these uses the effect is believed to be due to immunomodulatory effects rather than antimicrobial activity. See for example the following:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanr ... 13-2600(14)70019-0/fulltext

https://www.dovepress.com/long-term-azi ... ticle-COPD

https://academic.oup.com/jac/article/55/1/10/777163

https://europepmc.org/article/med/11142932

It is conceivable therefore that there is a therapeutic role for azithromycin in treatment of coronavirus infections by virtue of its antiinflammatory effects rather than its antimicrobial activity; obviously evidence at this time is lacking.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16015
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:38 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

The main 'experts', namely the WHO, said in mid January that coronavirus can't be transmitted person to person. At that time since China did not allow foreign scientist to enter China and find out, the WHO was the main source of 'expert' input.

This virus caught everyone by surprise. If you can revise this same thread early on, I was one of the first to actually participate on it, and say that I was skeptical of this being equivalent to the flu, I was one of the few who doubted China's downplaying it. Our leaders in the western world were not ready and did not take it seriously, from Europe to America, everywhere. Right now is all good to speak with hindsight, Trump fucked up the message early on, but to be fair what could have been different? Italy? Europe.

Believe me I am not happy with Trump's management early on, but I am pretty sure any other person who would have been president wouldn't have prevented the current situation. This is unprecedented.


Trump's failure was massive, but it's not only about him, or the compromised WHO. We have incredible experts and there are organizations other than the WHO. The collective knowledge and know-how has been there, and prominent voices have been LOUD about the need for preparedness for over a decade. There is no excuse for not being ready other than ignorance and lack of political will. In a sense this is also a failure of society. This is what happens when we turn away from science as a society and prioritize other things instead. Science gave us success in Apollo, the semiconductor, the polio vaccine, GPS etc. This is a valuable lesson that our society should be on a train where the first car is populated by scientists and engineers, not evangelical leaders, reality TV, and keeping up with the Joneses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNhiHf84P9c

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI

We need to shame and eventually eliminate anti-science garbage like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ql73Hmbno40


You got to give credit to Trump who has been following the advise of the experts at this very moment, so much so that I think he is putting too much seriousness that the economy might even collapse. I believe they should be working on a strategy moving forward after we end the 15 days, I am pretty sure the experts will tell him to extend it, but I really don't think we should collapse the economy farther with more time extending this, at the end don't know if keeping the economy closed would be worth it if in the long run the damage might be much severe than a few thousands dying.

Expanding hospital infrastructure, finding drugs and a vaccine should be the priority while the country moves on. We can't keep this situation going for months.


Trump is doing this now because his political survival depends on it - so he gets credit insofar as it's the *job* of POTUS to take such actions for the country. Between his conspiracy theory claims and odd statements that exercising 'uses up the body's energy' and 'windmills cause cancer' - it's obvious he has always had at least a partial anti-science mindset - the 2018 dismantling of the NSC pandemic response office and two months wasted ignoring public health experts and intelligence reports about China only shows it more. So in some tragic way, he is also an example of the failure of society to respect and prioritize science I was talking about. Most of the innovative things Americans believe we gave benefits to the world from were achieved through science.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 8342
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:40 pm

If the US GDP falls by 20% (a common forecast), that’s $4 trillion, not to mention the human costs of lost employment, savings etc. The government uses $10 million as the value of a human life for policy making decisions, when tested in studies individuals value themselves at half that. We have to save 400,000 to 800,000 lives to make the numbers work. That’s save, not total deaths but deaths that don’t occur because of the quarantine measures.

Today the death total is 346.
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:46 pm

T4thH wrote:
And as just typed, correction by RKI: The numbers were just incomplete and some News-services were too fast. I had already waited for several hours, to verify, that it will not corrected and I will announce wrong news. I really hate this, I have really tried to avoid this.
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/coronavirus-verwirrung-um-fallzahlen-vom-robert-koch-institut-a-1d79a29e-a03a-444c-b2f6-bcbdb6c18bf3
Just completed typing and send, checked the news and....Just updated by RKI, no slow down.

I really will like to type now some not-nice words....


Never use Business Insider for serious information, it is a fluffy German/EU propaganda mouthpiece. Der Spiegal is proven to be not much better. I have wondered - I read that Germany has no way of knowing how many are being tested due to a "decentralized system" or some such. This is why Germany does not appear in any of those charts. That and the disproportionate amount of deaths per infection in Germany raises some questions about reporting. I find it hard to believe that Germany does not know how many tests are administered daily.
 
emperortk
Posts: 108
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:01 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:56 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
The main 'experts', namely the WHO, said in mid January that coronavirus can't be transmitted person to person.


Do you have a source for this, or are you just making it up? And by source, I mean some kind of public statement from WHO that says coronavirus can't be transmitted from person to person.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 14759
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:06 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
If the US GDP falls by 20% (a common forecast), that’s $4 trillion, not to mention the human costs of lost employment, savings etc. The government uses $10 million as the value of a human life for policy making decisions, when tested in studies individuals value themselves at half that. We have to save 400,000 to 800,000 lives to make the numbers work. That’s save, not total deaths but deaths that don’t occur because of the quarantine measures.

Today the death total is 346.


I was waiting for this. Since it seems for some all that matters is money, well it turns out the value of someone is also in money, and it's a big number. So hurting the economy to save many people might be worth it after all.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1423
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:06 pm

emperortk wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
The main 'experts', namely the WHO, said in mid January that coronavirus can't be transmitted person to person.


Do you have a source for this, or are you just making it up? And by source, I mean some kind of public statement from WHO that says coronavirus can't be transmitted from person to person.


"Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China,"


https://www.foxnews.com/world/world-hea ... oronavirus
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16015
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:08 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
If the US GDP falls by 20% (a common forecast), that’s $4 trillion, not to mention the human costs of lost employment, savings etc. The government uses $10 million as the value of a human life for policy making decisions, when tested in studies individuals value themselves at half that. We have to save 400,000 to 800,000 lives to make the numbers work. That’s save, not total deaths but deaths that don’t occur because of the quarantine measures.

Today the death total is 346.


NIH and CDC say people over 50 are at highest risk. Google estimates 34% of Americans are over 50, so that puts 115 million Americans at risk - but for the sake of argument let’s say only half that number have no hypertension, smoking history, are not obese or possess other co-morbidities - so that’s roughly 58 million high-risk individuals. Is that enough to warrant the effort? You can do 58 million x $10 million but you'll break the calculator with an exponent to the 14th power.
Last edited by Aaron747 on Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1423
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:13 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
If the US GDP falls by 20% (a common forecast), that’s $4 trillion, not to mention the human costs of lost employment, savings etc. The government uses $10 million as the value of a human life for policy making decisions, when tested in studies individuals value themselves at half that. We have to save 400,000 to 800,000 lives to make the numbers work. That’s save, not total deaths but deaths that don’t occur because of the quarantine measures.

Today the death total is 346.


NIH and CDC say people over 50 are at highest risk. That puts 115 million Americans at risk, but for the sake of argument let’s say only half that number have no hypertension, smoking history, are not obese or other co-morbidities, so that’s roughly 58 million high-risk individuals. Is that enough to warrant the effort?


I think is simpler to have 58 millions Americans stay home, don't move rather than keeping almost 300 million home. The most at risk should stay home that's it.
 
Osubuckeyes
Posts: 1901
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:05 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:14 pm

emperortk wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
The main 'experts', namely the WHO, said in mid January that coronavirus can't be transmitted person to person.


Do you have a source for this, or are you just making it up? And by source, I mean some kind of public statement from WHO that says coronavirus can't be transmitted from person to person.


https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152
 
User avatar
DocLightning
Posts: 22258
Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2005 8:51 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:14 pm

edmountain wrote:
The clinical utility of azithromycin in this regard is illustrated by evidence based on randomized control trials that shows that azithromycin, when taken on a long-term basis, is effective in reducing frequency of exacerbations, hospitalizations, and duration of hospital stay in patients with COPD that is refractory despite optimal therapy. There is also evidence that azithromycin may have therapeutic effects in acute infections and even extra-pulmonary disease such as osteomyelitis. Again, for all of these uses the effect is believed to be due to immunomodulatory effects rather than antimicrobial activity. See for example the following:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanr ... 13-2600(14)70019-0/fulltext

https://www.dovepress.com/long-term-azi ... ticle-COPD

https://academic.oup.com/jac/article/55/1/10/777163

https://europepmc.org/article/med/11142932

It is conceivable therefore that there is a therapeutic role for azithromycin in treatment of coronavirus infections by virtue of its antiinflammatory effects rather than its antimicrobial activity; obviously evidence at this time is lacking.


I'll also point out that azithromycin likes to compartmentalize into acidic compartments. We know that the virus is endocytosed into vesicles and then those become acidic, which allows the virus particle to fuse with the vesicle and release its contents into the cytoplasm. It's thought that (hydroxy)chloroquine may disrupt this acidification process, which is why it's helpful.

And so now I'm puzzled (and I'm not the only one). Is this some antiinflammatory effect of azithromycin? We know that it has one, but we don't know how or why. Or is this because azithromycin is gumming up the works inside these vesicles and inhibiting viral fusion and entry? And if that's the case, would hydroxychloroquine in combination with azithromycin actually be counter-productive and we should be using one or the other but not both? Head-to-head trials haven't been done yet.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16015
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:15 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
If the US GDP falls by 20% (a common forecast), that’s $4 trillion, not to mention the human costs of lost employment, savings etc. The government uses $10 million as the value of a human life for policy making decisions, when tested in studies individuals value themselves at half that. We have to save 400,000 to 800,000 lives to make the numbers work. That’s save, not total deaths but deaths that don’t occur because of the quarantine measures.

Today the death total is 346.


NIH and CDC say people over 50 are at highest risk. That puts 115 million Americans at risk, but for the sake of argument let’s say only half that number have no hypertension, smoking history, are not obese or other co-morbidities, so that’s roughly 58 million high-risk individuals. Is that enough to warrant the effort?


I think is simpler to have 58 millions Americans stay home, don't move rather than keeping almost 300 million home. The most at risk should stay home that's it.


What is your scientific reasoning for that proposal? Epidemiologists say flattening the curve is a race against time - and their view is backed up by exponential math. If the scientifically prudent thing to do were keeping only the most at-risk at home, that's what they would recommend. I think you're forgetting that containment already failed - that's why we're here.
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 20122
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:18 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
emperortk wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
The main 'experts', namely the WHO, said in mid January that coronavirus can't be transmitted person to person.


Do you have a source for this, or are you just making it up? And by source, I mean some kind of public statement from WHO that says coronavirus can't be transmitted from person to person.


"Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China,"


https://www.foxnews.com/world/world-hea ... oronavirus


The WHO reporting something that China said is actually very different from the WHO saying it.

I thought you we're smart enough to know the difference.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 14759
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:22 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
If the US GDP falls by 20% (a common forecast), that’s $4 trillion, not to mention the human costs of lost employment, savings etc. The government uses $10 million as the value of a human life for policy making decisions, when tested in studies individuals value themselves at half that. We have to save 400,000 to 800,000 lives to make the numbers work. That’s save, not total deaths but deaths that don’t occur because of the quarantine measures.

Today the death total is 346.


NIH and CDC say people over 50 are at highest risk. That puts 115 million Americans at risk, but for the sake of argument let’s say only half that number have no hypertension, smoking history, are not obese or other co-morbidities, so that’s roughly 58 million high-risk individuals. Is that enough to warrant the effort?


I think is simpler to have 58 millions Americans stay home, don't move rather than keeping almost 300 million home. The most at risk should stay home that's it.


It's possible we'll do that in about a month. Things have to be organized till then so that these people's needs can be met, and if they have a job a way for them to work from home, or to safeguard their job in some other way.
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:25 pm

Derico wrote:
So it's time to admit it: Western people (as opposed to Asians), it appears are just not culturally capable of self-restraint in the same manner that made the lockdowns work in Asia. At least Southern Europeans are not. Jury still out on northerners I guess. I simply don't comprehend how is it hard not to see that 21 days of strict quarantine are far better than 100 days of a mushy mess.



Japanese have been shown to ignore the dangers also. The countries that have squashed it have used heavy surveillance, strict border controls and force to keep their people in line. North Korea, Singapore, China, more authoritarian.
 
Ellecram
Posts: 1
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2019 12:08 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:26 pm

Aesma wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

NIH and CDC say people over 50 are at highest risk. That puts 115 million Americans at risk, but for the sake of argument let’s say only half that number have no hypertension, smoking history, are not obese or other co-morbidities, so that’s roughly 58 million high-risk individuals. Is that enough to warrant the effort?


I think is simpler to have 58 millions Americans stay home, don't move rather than keeping almost 300 million home. The most at risk should stay home that's it.


It's possible we'll do that in about a month. Things have to be organized till then so that these people's needs can be met, and if they have a job a way for them to work from home, or to safeguard their job in some other way.


There are quite a few people 50 and over with jobs that cannot be done remotely. I am one of them. And I don't have any family left so I have to work and go out for essentials. That is my reality. I am sure I am not the only one in this situation.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16015
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:29 pm

mham001 wrote:
Derico wrote:
So it's time to admit it: Western people (as opposed to Asians), it appears are just not culturally capable of self-restraint in the same manner that made the lockdowns work in Asia. At least Southern Europeans are not. Jury still out on northerners I guess. I simply don't comprehend how is it hard not to see that 21 days of strict quarantine are far better than 100 days of a mushy mess.



Japanese have been shown to ignore the dangers also. The countries that have squashed it have used heavy surveillance, strict border controls and force to keep their people in line. North Korea, Singapore, China, more authoritarian.


Agree with this - when Singapore and China put orders in place, citizens had to oblige. Everything in Japan has been a 'request' by the government - schools were not ordered to close, they were asked to. Japanese authority is painfully soft because of the cultural importance of avoiding conflict, and in polls close to 40% of the population doesn't trust the government anyway.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14664
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:31 pm

mham001 wrote:
I find it hard to believe that Germany does not know how many tests are administered daily.


163.000/week last week as per RKI.

That and the disproportionate amount of deaths per infection in Germany raises some questions about reporting.


Or it just means that most infected are identified. The rate is not so different from SKs, and we have more intensive care units + fewer people sick long enough to have died yet. You can already see the mortality slowly trend up.

Best regards
Thomas
 
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Aesma
Posts: 14759
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:33 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
mham001 wrote:
Derico wrote:
So it's time to admit it: Western people (as opposed to Asians), it appears are just not culturally capable of self-restraint in the same manner that made the lockdowns work in Asia. At least Southern Europeans are not. Jury still out on northerners I guess. I simply don't comprehend how is it hard not to see that 21 days of strict quarantine are far better than 100 days of a mushy mess.



Japanese have been shown to ignore the dangers also. The countries that have squashed it have used heavy surveillance, strict border controls and force to keep their people in line. North Korea, Singapore, China, more authoritarian.


Agree with this - when Singapore and China put orders in place, citizens had to oblige. Everything in Japan has been a 'request' by the government - schools were not ordered to close, they were asked to. Japanese authority is painfully soft because of the cultural importance of avoiding conflict, and in polls close to 40% of the population doesn't trust the government anyway.


But Japanese people are ultra conformists so it works anyway.

In the UK the government has also been "asking" for things to happen (to not have to be responsible for layoffs etc.) and that didn't work at all, so now it's mandated. Same in the US.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2899
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:34 pm

mham001 wrote:
Derico wrote:
So it's time to admit it: Western people (as opposed to Asians), it appears are just not culturally capable of self-restraint in the same manner that made the lockdowns work in Asia. At least Southern Europeans are not. Jury still out on northerners I guess. I simply don't comprehend how is it hard not to see that 21 days of strict quarantine are far better than 100 days of a mushy mess.



Japanese have been shown to ignore the dangers also. The countries that have squashed it have used heavy surveillance, strict border controls and force to keep their people in line. North Korea, Singapore, China, more authoritarian.


Speaking about North Korea...anyone knows what's going on there? I cannot image they have a good health care system and they certainly do not have enough ventilators.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1423
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:35 pm

scbriml wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
emperortk wrote:

Do you have a source for this, or are you just making it up? And by source, I mean some kind of public statement from WHO that says coronavirus can't be transmitted from person to person.


"Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China,"


https://www.foxnews.com/world/world-hea ... oronavirus


The WHO reporting something that China said is actually very different from the WHO saying it.

I thought you we're smart enough to know the difference.


I am smart enough not to trust the UN, WHO or the PRC by that matter. But millions believe them... so anything they say can be held as 'official' or truths.
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:36 pm

scbriml wrote:
The WHO reporting something that China said is actually very different from the WHO saying it.

I thought you we're smart enough to know the difference.


It is truly bizarre the hills that some will die upon. And how stupid they believe the rest of the world to believe it.

The WHO tweeted, you know, disseminated the information. The WHO did not have doctors on the ground, the Chinese would not allow it. If the WHO did no believe it worthwhile information, then they should not have spread it. But they did. Absolutely no different than Trump downplaying it after speaking with Xi, who also made certain assurances.

It all comes back to one place and one place only - CHINA. Why are you so hellbent on their absolution? Because...Trump?
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1423
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:38 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

NIH and CDC say people over 50 are at highest risk. That puts 115 million Americans at risk, but for the sake of argument let’s say only half that number have no hypertension, smoking history, are not obese or other co-morbidities, so that’s roughly 58 million high-risk individuals. Is that enough to warrant the effort?


I think is simpler to have 58 millions Americans stay home, don't move rather than keeping almost 300 million home. The most at risk should stay home that's it.


What is your scientific reasoning for that proposal? Epidemiologists say flattening the curve is a race against time - and their view is backed up by exponential math. If the scientifically prudent thing to do were keeping only the most at-risk at home, that's what they would recommend. I think you're forgetting that containment already failed - that's why we're here.


Not scientific, we are less than 400 deaths thus far, our hospitals are not overcrowded (yet), though these things can happen, I rather believe that by the end of the 14 days we can be prepared to gradually open the country back again.

Epidemiologists aren't economists, yes they will do their best to protect us, thankfully, but I doubt they have much knowledge in economy to understand the other impact from this virus. The economic one.

I think they will tell us to keep hunkering down farther than 14 days, in fact even more than 30 days, but like I said, are we prepared for the long term economic impact?
 
theaviator380
Posts: 682
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:44 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:48 pm

Hello Folks, hope everyone is safe and sound.

Don't shoot 'ME' for this info as I saw this circulating online so I am just sharing to see your views on it.

So no idea if it's a fake news or factual but worth looking?

_____

Why "Social Distancing" is the most important precaution in the fight against Corona. Live example from last month's history.

As we can see from the uploaded image, it is a news snippet from 4th Feb.
In early Feb, while China was reeling under pressure due to Corona virus, Italy was totally safe, and had less than 5 confirmed cases. But despite such low numbers, Italians automatically started taking precautions. Since Italy has a few leather factories which are dominated by Chinese immigrants, and as most of them had recently been to their hometowns for vacations and were returning to work in January 2020 (in Italian factories), the locals in Italy started exercising caution, by avoiding any direct interaction with those Chinese. In fact, that's basic human tendency, to avoid interaction with anyone coming from virus affected regions. So, the Italians naturally started avoiding interactions with Chinese, especially those who had recently landed at Italy. This apparently didn't go down well with certain activists who felt it is a form of "discrimination" against Chinese.

During such heightened times, instead of testing those Chinese workers for the virus, the Mayor of Florence (Italy) came up with an initiative in which he appealed to all the Italians to show their love towards Chinese, by hugging them. It was titled "Hug a Chinese", and was organized/supported by several NGOs as well, and hailed by various leaders for "political correctness". Their logic was that human is bigger than virus, and hence a mere virus cannot create a barrier between Italians & Chinese.

Over the next few days, there was a sort of "celebration" throughout Italy, where everyone walking down the streets were hugging every other Chinese immigrant, to "show their love". Some even took it to the next level, in which they started hugging Chinese passengers in masks who had just landed at Italy, most of whom were probably already infected.

Few days later, Italy was gripped with Corona virus, and the number of cases which was in single digit till mid Feb, exploded to thousands within a week of the "Hug a Chinese" campaign.

One might say there is no use raking up these facts now, because the damage is already done. But the point here is that such incidents serve as crucial lessons for rest of the world, and it is a real example of how social distancing can be really effective. As we can see from this example, the Italians were initially cautious and hence hardly had any confirmed cases as long as they were cautious. But the moment their leader turned it into a mockery, everyone threw all caution out of the window and things just exploded after that.

This is something rest of the world can take notice. Social distancing is very important during an epedimic. There is no need to play any game of "political correctness" to appease anybody. Also, these events show why good leadership is important.

Links:

News snippet:
https://vdare.com/posts/mayor-of-floren ... -prejudice

"Hug a chinese" campaign by Mayor:
https://kprcradio.iheart.com/featured/t ... inese-day/
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 16015
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:58 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

I think is simpler to have 58 millions Americans stay home, don't move rather than keeping almost 300 million home. The most at risk should stay home that's it.


What is your scientific reasoning for that proposal? Epidemiologists say flattening the curve is a race against time - and their view is backed up by exponential math. If the scientifically prudent thing to do were keeping only the most at-risk at home, that's what they would recommend. I think you're forgetting that containment already failed - that's why we're here.


Not scientific, we are less than 400 deaths thus far, our hospitals are not overcrowded (yet), though these things can happen, I rather believe that by the end of the 14 days we can be prepared to gradually open the country back again.

Epidemiologists aren't economists, yes they will do their best to protect us, thankfully, but I doubt they have much knowledge in economy to understand the other impact from this virus. The economic one.

I think they will tell us to keep hunkering down farther than 14 days, in fact even more than 30 days, but like I said, are we prepared for the long term economic impact?


Are you serious? Perhaps you don't know what's covered in a Master's of Public Health degree, but I assure you these people have enough knowledge of economics from courses on mitigation of economic effects and health policy administration. Many with an MPH have various degrees in their undergrad or serve in a non-health professional capacity. These are highly intelligent people - they can connect the dots and have no trouble with interdisciplinary concepts.

Here's an example paper just out today - you'll note they did not neglect to mention the economy.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 40-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext
 
caliboy93
Posts: 254
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:28 pm

Can the coronavirus mutate?

Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:02 pm

What are the odds of COVID-19 mutating into something more aggressive and lethal, and affecting those who previously weren't vulnerable?
 
KFTG
Posts: 948
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: Can the coronavirus mutate?

Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:06 pm

It can just as easily mutate into something LESS lethal...
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15807
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:08 pm

The biggest threat of health care and this crises around the world right now is the lack of sufficient protective gear for staff, ventilators, beds and facilities to put them in and enough health staff. Some cities in the USA like NY are days away from running out of supplies and already very risky reuse is common. This is why it is imperative to restrict movement, shut down businesses, to prevent such a run up and inability to deal with it.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14664
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Can the coronavirus mutate?

Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:15 pm

KFTG wrote:
It can just as easily mutate into something LESS lethal...


Which is actually the was evolutionary pressure will push it. Milder strains can spread further faster.

Best regards
Thomas
 
T4thH
Posts: 1276
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:16 pm

mham001 wrote:
T4thH wrote:
And as just typed, correction by RKI: The numbers were just incomplete and some News-services were too fast. I had already waited for several hours, to verify, that it will not corrected and I will announce wrong news. I really hate this, I have really tried to avoid this.
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/coronavirus-verwirrung-um-fallzahlen-vom-robert-koch-institut-a-1d79a29e-a03a-444c-b2f6-bcbdb6c18bf3
Just completed typing and send, checked the news and....Just updated by RKI, no slow down.

I really will like to type now some not-nice words....


Never use Business Insider for serious information, it is a fluffy German/EU propaganda mouthpiece. Der Spiegal is proven to be not much better. I have wondered - I read that Germany has no way of knowing how many are being tested due to a "decentralized system" or some such. This is why Germany does not appear in any of those charts. That and the disproportionate amount of deaths per infection in Germany raises some questions about reporting. I find it hard to believe that Germany does not know how many tests are administered daily.



First, I pretty sure, I (and most others in my country with exception of the populist far right (especially the NAZI near AFD wing) fans as also the far left Putin fans) have a different opinion, what is propaganda and not. Sputnik and also FOX are pure propaganda mouth pieces (for example Sputnik) or let us call them propaganda like/near propaganda for FOX. As example Spiegel and all others are not.

Far right/far left will have a different opinion, for them Sputnik or FOX are the god mode.

For your information, the Coronavirus testing is not in responsibility of the government. It is in responsibility of the federal structure, so every district, district free cities, every physician, the health care system, Gesundheitsämter (local health authority is not a good translation for this as it is unique) of the districts and district free cities e.g.
Every positive result has to be announced to the RKI (Robert Koch Institut) as central authority for it (this can be compared to the CDC). No negative results or even the total number of laboratory tests have to be announced, this is not in the responsibility of the government.
There are alone 120 districts and I just do not know how many district free cities in Germany, all hospitals and all big and many of the small laboratories + most of the hospital laboratories of the bigger hospitals and all are performing tests now. Maximum capacity was 12.000/day 20 days ago, 22.000/day around 10 days ago and no one is any more aware, how many tests per day can be performed now in Germany....till end of this month.

Because than all the invoices will be send as regular for all laboratory tests by the laboratories to the "Kassenärtzliche Vereinigung" of every state in Germany, who will distribute the bills as regular to all health care insurance companies in Germany.
As example, this is the one of Bavaria:
https://www.kvb.de/praxis/qualitaet/hygiene-und-infektionspraevention/infektionsschutz/coronavirus/
This for Hessen...
https://www.kvhessen.de/

So around 10 of Apr-2020 we will know, how many tests have been performed in Germany. The laboratories will use following code number: U07.1.
59 € per test will be reimbursed to the labs.
https://www.airliners.net/forum/posting.php?mode=quote&f=11&p=22105205
For last week in Feb-2020, it was 10.200 tests performed in Germany. This was announced by the "Kassenärztliche Bundesvereinigung" on 05-Mar-2020.
This is the link of the Kassenärtzliche Bundesvereinigung: https://www.kbv.de/html/index.php
But I do not find any more the link for the numbers of performed tests in Feb-2020.

For your information, every district and district free cities have now Coronavirus test centers (called "Abstrichzentren") in Germany. + additional all others tests, which are performed somewhere else.

Well known is the test site in "Nürtingen" ...where the hell is Nürtingen? It is 30 km south east of Stuttgart.
This was one of the first in Germany (got known, as first drive through test site and is one of two in this district) and this "Abstrichzentrum" alone has had performed 4000 tests till middle of this week (around 300 cars per day).
https://www.mdr.de/brisant/video-coronavirus-abstrich-drive-in-nuertingen-100.html
Last edited by T4thH on Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2713
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:21 pm

theaviator380 wrote:
Hello Folks, hope everyone is safe and sound.

Don't shoot 'ME' for this info as I saw this circulating online so I am just sharing to see your views on it.

So no idea if it's a fake news or factual but worth looking?

_____

Why "Social Distancing" is the most important precaution in the fight against Corona. Live example from last month's history.

As we can see from the uploaded image, it is a news snippet from 4th Feb.
In early Feb, while China was reeling under pressure due to Corona virus, Italy was totally safe, and had less than 5 confirmed cases. But despite such low numbers, Italians automatically started taking precautions. Since Italy has a few leather factories which are dominated by Chinese immigrants, and as most of them had recently been to their hometowns for vacations and were returning to work in January 2020 (in Italian factories), the locals in Italy started exercising caution, by avoiding any direct interaction with those Chinese. In fact, that's basic human tendency, to avoid interaction with anyone coming from virus affected regions. So, the Italians naturally started avoiding interactions with Chinese, especially those who had recently landed at Italy. This apparently didn't go down well with certain activists who felt it is a form of "discrimination" against Chinese.

During such heightened times, instead of testing those Chinese workers for the virus, the Mayor of Florence (Italy) came up with an initiative in which he appealed to all the Italians to show their love towards Chinese, by hugging them. It was titled "Hug a Chinese", and was organized/supported by several NGOs as well, and hailed by various leaders for "political correctness". Their logic was that human is bigger than virus, and hence a mere virus cannot create a barrier between Italians & Chinese.

Over the next few days, there was a sort of "celebration" throughout Italy, where everyone walking down the streets were hugging every other Chinese immigrant, to "show their love". Some even took it to the next level, in which they started hugging Chinese passengers in masks who had just landed at Italy, most of whom were probably already infected.

Few days later, Italy was gripped with Corona virus, and the number of cases which was in single digit till mid Feb, exploded to thousands within a week of the "Hug a Chinese" campaign.

One might say there is no use raking up these facts now, because the damage is already done. But the point here is that such incidents serve as crucial lessons for rest of the world, and it is a real example of how social distancing can be really effective. As we can see from this example, the Italians were initially cautious and hence hardly had any confirmed cases as long as they were cautious. But the moment their leader turned it into a mockery, everyone threw all caution out of the window and things just exploded after that.

This is something rest of the world can take notice. Social distancing is very important during an epedimic. There is no need to play any game of "political correctness" to appease anybody. Also, these events show why good leadership is important.

Links:

News snippet:
https://vdare.com/posts/mayor-of-floren ... -prejudice

"Hug a chinese" campaign by Mayor:
https://kprcradio.iheart.com/featured/t ... inese-day/


I've heard this story as well. A very important read.

This is not the time for political correctness or speech policing. Which are two things that made the situation way worse, not only in Florence, but Italy and then the rest of Europe.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14664
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:23 pm

T4thH wrote:
There are alone 120 districts and I just do not know how many district free cities in Germany,


107 + 3 like-district free cities, 4 of which being states or part of Bremen (no districts, but two cities in the state).

Best regards
Thomas
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1423
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:31 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

What is your scientific reasoning for that proposal? Epidemiologists say flattening the curve is a race against time - and their view is backed up by exponential math. If the scientifically prudent thing to do were keeping only the most at-risk at home, that's what they would recommend. I think you're forgetting that containment already failed - that's why we're here.


Not scientific, we are less than 400 deaths thus far, our hospitals are not overcrowded (yet), though these things can happen, I rather believe that by the end of the 14 days we can be prepared to gradually open the country back again.

Epidemiologists aren't economists, yes they will do their best to protect us, thankfully, but I doubt they have much knowledge in economy to understand the other impact from this virus. The economic one.

I think they will tell us to keep hunkering down farther than 14 days, in fact even more than 30 days, but like I said, are we prepared for the long term economic impact?


Are you serious? Perhaps you don't know what's covered in a Master's of Public Health degree, but I assure you these people have enough knowledge of economics from courses on mitigation of economic effects and health policy administration. Many with an MPH have various degrees in their undergrad or serve in a non-health professional capacity. These are highly intelligent people - they can connect the dots and have no trouble with interdisciplinary concepts.

Here's an example paper just out today - you'll note they did not neglect to mention the economy.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 40-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext


Well then, lets follow their advice, I hope what ever measure they tell us we should do its also based realistic goals.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1276
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:34 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
T4thH wrote:
There are alone 120 districts and I just do not know how many district free cities in Germany,


107 + 3 like-district free cities, 4 of which being states or part of Bremen (no districts, but two cities in the state).

Best regards
Thomas


I have just verified: Germany has 294 rural districts (Landkreise) and 107 district free cities ("urban cities", kreisfreie Städte) . So the number of 120 was wrong for "districts" and you were right of 107 district free cities. So in total 401 "districts" in any form.
 
emperortk
Posts: 108
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:01 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:36 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
emperortk wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
The main 'experts', namely the WHO, said in mid January that coronavirus can't be transmitted person to person.


Do you have a source for this, or are you just making it up? And by source, I mean some kind of public statement from WHO that says coronavirus can't be transmitted from person to person.


"Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China,"


https://www.foxnews.com/world/world-hea ... oronavirus


Help me out here. I'm still looking for the part that says "coronavirus can't be transmitted from person to person" as you stated was claimed by WHO.

All I see is a statement about the lack of evidence for such having occurred. There is plenty to fault China and the WHO for, but your statement is a mischaracterization of what was said.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1469
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:42 pm

T4thH wrote:
Some good news from Germany. The spread of Coronavirus seems to slow down in Germany. So the high number of tests performed (and high number of early identified cases), the first measurements to slow it and of course, that many/most people were more careful, (like regular wash your hands, stay in some distance to others e.g.) seems to do the job, to slow it (not to solve it).
https://www.businessinsider.de/wissenschaft/coronavirus-infektionen-anstieg-verlangsamt-deutschland/

Still in comparison to the identified total number of cases low number of death (just as so many have been Coronavirus cases have been identified by the tests), compared to other countries....

It seems, the healthcare system in Germany will not break down as Germany has additional far the highest total number and number/100.000 of intensive care beds without and with ventilators in Europe and up to the highest in the world. It was in 2017: 28.000 (34/100.000) intensive care, of them 25.000 (28/100.000) with ventilators. All intensive care beds without have been now upgraded and many thousands new intensive care beds with ventilators have been assembled at hospitals (and 10.000 additional ventilators have been ordered at Dräger, to be delivered till end of this year). Additional emergency hospitals are now build in fair halls (as these are big and empty, as all fairs are cancelled) e.g., hospital staff has been re-trained for intensive care department e.g.
(For your information: US has also around 34 intensive care beds/100.000; UK has just only 6, Denmark has 6, Italy has 12 to 13, France 12, Spain 10....average in Europe is something around 13).
So Germany is well prepared now.

And to all in US; Europe has had the ski resort Ischgl in Austria and the ski resorts in northern Italy, from there the Coronavirus has spread through Europe, these were our superspreader locations in Europe with thousands coming back with Coronavirus. You will have now your Spring Break and the thousands with Coronavirus coming back.


The below is an opinion.

I'm going to burst some bubbles here: Germany is not doing well at all.
There is no significant slowdown of new cases, they are in Spain and Italy's footsteps leading the pack in number of cases, they aren't taking major precautions, they are not reporting numbers of critical patients, they have no deaths attributed to Covid19 because they are not reporting them properly.

Germany is walking a thin line between reporting the truth and keeping their industries going.
That's right, there is nothing more important to Germany than their industries, so like Japan, do not expect too much transparency until the situation is out of control.

As for having enough ICU beds available, we'll see.
This false sense of safety is very dangerous.

One explanation is also that Germany is testing more widely and detecting, isolating sooner.
But I doubt it.

Even Italy is admitting that they are underreporting Covid19 deaths, as higher mortality rates in counties are not fully accounted for by confirmed Covid19 cases, meaning that many Covid19 death are still slipping under the radar.

Giovanni Maga from CNR told Euronews that in Italy a person who tested positive while alive or post-mortem is counted as a coronavirus-death. "I don't know if Germany or France follow the same criteria," he noted.

Maga also stated that healthcare structures are rather similar in northern Italy, France and Germany, making it harder to justify such discrepancies in numbers.

He agreed with Wieler with regards to the time curve and the progression of the pandemic. "France and Germany are where Italy was at the beginning of the month. They are late in implementing measures and will get to a point where they will have a harsher level of contagion."



https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/13/cor ... -19-deaths
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 8342
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:45 pm

Aesma wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
If the US GDP falls by 20% (a common forecast), that’s $4 trillion, not to mention the human costs of lost employment, savings etc. The government uses $10 million as the value of a human life for policy making decisions, when tested in studies individuals value themselves at half that. We have to save 400,000 to 800,000 lives to make the numbers work. That’s save, not total deaths but deaths that don’t occur because of the quarantine measures.

Today the death total is 346.


I was waiting for this. Since it seems for some all that matters is money, well it turns out the value of someone is also in money, and it's a big number. So hurting the economy to save many people might be worth it after all.


Hurt the economic, maybe; destroy it, certainly not. A depression induced to save lives will cause deaths too. Increased suicides, social violence, substance abuse, loss of education opportunities. Nothing is free, everything has an opportunity cost. The present hit to the US economy alone will require saving 400,000 lives that could be directly attributed, not merely contributory, to COVID-19. Will there even be a total of 400,000 COVID deaths?
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 20122
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:45 pm

mham001 wrote:
It all comes back to one place and one place only - CHINA. Why are you so hellbent on their absolution? Because...Trump?


You're going to have to show me where I've made any attempt to absolve China of anything.

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