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AirWorthy99
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:10 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

This attitude means you're okay with overburdening the medical system and working our healthcare professionals into the ground....the curve must be flattened before everything can snap back to normal.


If you look outside of the large urban areas of the US there isnt much of a problem with this virus.

Read Friedmans opinion piece and tell me if you disagree.


The bulk of the economy is centered on the 50 largest metropolitan areas - they need to be healthy or the economy won't be. We're not going to transition the entire service and R&D sector to rural areas in a few weeks' time.

I read his piece and the last paragraph is a non sequitur invalidated by what Dr. Katz (the expert he spoke with) said. Yes, we can get things humming in again 'in a few weeks time' as Katz said (not 15 days) - but this depends on maximum compliance with people staying at home now. Otherwise, same problems with an overburdened medical system (that is not properly supplied now with a relatively low number of cases - imagine four or five weeks from now?).

That's why the Surgeon General again this morning needed to highlight people not listening to social distancing in the Tweet I posted above. This is a race against time - or all of your dreams of getting things humming again are unrealistic because nobody with honor is going to ask medical professionals to violate their oath and just give in to an inevitability that the most at-risk have to die.


Ok so lets allow the unelected “experts” who arent accountable to anything but an oath decide the future of this country’s economy for generations to come.

Should we follow their advice? Yes, but to what end?
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:25 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

If you look outside of the large urban areas of the US there isnt much of a problem with this virus.

Read Friedmans opinion piece and tell me if you disagree.


The bulk of the economy is centered on the 50 largest metropolitan areas - they need to be healthy or the economy won't be. We're not going to transition the entire service and R&D sector to rural areas in a few weeks' time.

I read his piece and the last paragraph is a non sequitur invalidated by what Dr. Katz (the expert he spoke with) said. Yes, we can get things humming in again 'in a few weeks time' as Katz said (not 15 days) - but this depends on maximum compliance with people staying at home now. Otherwise, same problems with an overburdened medical system (that is not properly supplied now with a relatively low number of cases - imagine four or five weeks from now?).

That's why the Surgeon General again this morning needed to highlight people not listening to social distancing in the Tweet I posted above. This is a race against time - or all of your dreams of getting things humming again are unrealistic because nobody with honor is going to ask medical professionals to violate their oath and just give in to an inevitability that the most at-risk have to die.


Ok so lets allow the unelected “experts” who arent accountable to anything but an oath decide the future of this country’s economy for generations to come.

Should we follow their advice? Yes, but to what end?


Why do you put experts in quotes? The Hippocratic oath is a far bigger deal than the fake promises most politicians make.

Yes we should follow their advice - and to what end is to flatten the curve. The faster people comply with what’s being recommended, the easier it will be to transition to a different phase of mitigation. Social pressure is imperative - people need to tell others who don’t care or have doubts to get their asses in gear.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:35 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

The bulk of the economy is centered on the 50 largest metropolitan areas - they need to be healthy or the economy won't be. We're not going to transition the entire service and R&D sector to rural areas in a few weeks' time.

I read his piece and the last paragraph is a non sequitur invalidated by what Dr. Katz (the expert he spoke with) said. Yes, we can get things humming in again 'in a few weeks time' as Katz said (not 15 days) - but this depends on maximum compliance with people staying at home now. Otherwise, same problems with an overburdened medical system (that is not properly supplied now with a relatively low number of cases - imagine four or five weeks from now?).

That's why the Surgeon General again this morning needed to highlight people not listening to social distancing in the Tweet I posted above. This is a race against time - or all of your dreams of getting things humming again are unrealistic because nobody with honor is going to ask medical professionals to violate their oath and just give in to an inevitability that the most at-risk have to die.


Ok so lets allow the unelected “experts” who arent accountable to anything but an oath decide the future of this country’s economy for generations to come.

Should we follow their advice? Yes, but to what end?


Why do you put experts in quotes? The Hippocratic oath is a far bigger deal than the fake promises most politicians make.

Yes we should follow their advice - and to what end is to flatten the curve. The faster people comply with what’s being recommended, the easier it will be to transition to a different phase of mitigation. Social pressure is imperative - people need to tell others who don’t care or have doubts to get their asses in gear.



Because experts are not experts in everything that's why. You can be an expert in the medical field, but not in others. We are holding this country hostage based on just a group of experts, I am afraid of group-think here.

I am pretty sure they will advise us to stay put for 3 months, which would be their point of view to mitigate this. But as you can see, your 'economics expert' Thomas Friedman foresees economic disaster if we extend this.

There is going to be a point 'experts' in all diverse fields will not agree on the best solution to this going forward, should we just listen to some and not listen to other experts?

We are getting there.
Last edited by AirWorthy99 on Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:35 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
At some point you would think that all the Flatten the curve items would get through to Trump. However today we have this Gem.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... e-be-worse





I agree with this we should get back to work. He should allow states and local governments to implement their own decisions on closing their cities and counties as they see fit. I know the experts would want us to stay put but that's going to cause more damage as said by liberal economist Thomas Friedman https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/opin ... onomy.html


This attitude means you're okay with overburdening the medical system and working our healthcare professionals into the ground....the curve must be flattened before everything can snap back to normal. Anyone saying this in an urban center better be prepared to don masks and go volunteer after work to help with triage at a hospital. Have you seen the pictures of what Italian doctors and nurses look like these days?


Airworthy99, Italy has asked itself the same questions weeks ag: Isn't this premature, aren't we destroying our economy and businesses over this for nothing?
Boy have they changed their mind since.
Come back in 4 weeks and we'll see what you think about it.
By the way, if we may believe CNN, Trump is itching to lift social distancing at the end of the 15 days.

In any case in the US there isn't much social distancing going on. Sure, some bars and restaurants are closed in places where the virus is running amock, nothing comparable to Italy where you need to fill a form everytime you want to leave your house.

So if you don't want to respect social distancing and want to keep doing your thing, there are plenty of opportunities to do so. If you own a restaurant, you can still work with deliveries or take away.

At supermarkets, people are not respecting distances.

Things are going to get vastly worse in the USA very quickly.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:42 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:




There wasn't much of a problem with any of this back in January in the US.
Your point and Friedman's is ?

This virus spreads when the economy is humming and the kids are all in school.



If you read the piece you would have gotten the point, in his last paragraph he arrives at the same conclusion the WSJ editorial the other day. Read it for context.

I don;'t have access. and I don't sign up for editorials by none medical professionals that understand health about as well as Trump understands it.


here are some parts

about the experts

I share these questions. Our leaders are not flying completely blind: They are working off the advice of serious epidemiologists and public health experts. Yet we still need to be careful about “group think,’’ which is a natural but dangerous reaction when responding to a national and global crisis. We’re making decisions that affect the whole country and our entire economy — therefore, small errors in navigation could have huge consequences.


bottomline:

I am not a medical expert. I’m just a reporter — who is afraid for his own loved ones, for his neighbors and for people everywhere as much as anyone. I share these ideas not because I know they are the magic cure, or have every variable thought through (and I welcome readers to express their doubts in the comments section). I share them because I am certain that we need to broaden the debate — I am certain that we need less herd mentality and more herd immunity — as we come to terms with our hellish choice:

Either we let many of us get the coronavirus, recover and get back to work — while doing our utmost to protect those most vulnerable to being killed by it. Or, we shut down for months to try to save everyone everywhere from this virus — no matter their risk profile — and kill many people by other means, kill our economy and maybe kill our future.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/opin ... onomy.html
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
tommy1808
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:42 pm

casinterest wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

The other day I cited the WSJ editorial, check out what liberal Thomas Friedman says on the NYT opinion:

in regards our 'experts':



bottom line:



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/opin ... e=Homepage


For once, some intelligent talk from Friedman. Again, “.elites” are driving the train and have no “skin in the game”. Not one of them will be without a retirement, college money for children, a business.


It's not really intelligent at all. It is a complete detachment from the reality and logistics and horror of what is occurring. Hospitals will be overwhelmed. Currently "workers" with underlying susceptibility would be put at risk, or their family members would be. You are proposing a poor choice.


Isn't it amazing how may are willing to let 2 million or so fellow citizens die because they don't like the looks of their stock portfolio?

Money doesn't go away in a crisis, just someone else has it. And if those elites have something that gets clobbert hard, it is stock portfolios.

Given that they have access to excellent healthcare and can afford to totally self isolate, to the point of buying an island for themselves if they like, they should be the ones screaming....

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:45 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

I agree with this we should get back to work. He should allow states and local governments to implement their own decisions on closing their cities and counties as they see fit. I know the experts would want us to stay put but that's going to cause more damage as said by liberal economist Thomas Friedman https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/opin ... onomy.html


This attitude means you're okay with overburdening the medical system and working our healthcare professionals into the ground....the curve must be flattened before everything can snap back to normal. Anyone saying this in an urban center better be prepared to don masks and go volunteer after work to help with triage at a hospital. Have you seen the pictures of what Italian doctors and nurses look like these days?


Airworthy99, Italy has asked itself the same questions weeks ag: Isn't this premature, aren't we destroying our economy and businesses over this for nothing?
Boy have they changed their mind since.
Come back in 4 weeks and we'll see what you think about it.
By the way, if we may believe CNN, Trump is itching to lift social distancing at the end of the 15 days.

In any case in the US there isn't much social distancing going on. Sure, some bars and restaurants are closed in places where the virus is running amock, nothing comparable to Italy where you need to fill a form everytime you want to leave your house.

So if you don't want to respect social distancing and want to keep doing your thing, there are plenty of opportunities to do so. If you own a restaurant, you can still work with deliveries or take away.

At supermarkets, people are not respecting distances.

Things are going to get vastly worse in the USA very quickly.


I am not calling to an end to social distancing, I think data needs to be analyzed to see if these efforts are actually working and if implementing them has been worth the economic cost.

I think Europe began social distancing before the US did, and I have yet to see the first European nation to have 'flattened' the curve, who knows probably soon.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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scbriml
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:00 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
If you look outside of the large urban areas of the US there isnt much of a problem with this virus.


Yep. Antarctica and the Sahara show little impact too. :spin:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:04 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

This attitude means you're okay with overburdening the medical system and working our healthcare professionals into the ground....the curve must be flattened before everything can snap back to normal. Anyone saying this in an urban center better be prepared to don masks and go volunteer after work to help with triage at a hospital. Have you seen the pictures of what Italian doctors and nurses look like these days?


Airworthy99, Italy has asked itself the same questions weeks ag: Isn't this premature, aren't we destroying our economy and businesses over this for nothing?
Boy have they changed their mind since.
Come back in 4 weeks and we'll see what you think about it.
By the way, if we may believe CNN, Trump is itching to lift social distancing at the end of the 15 days.

In any case in the US there isn't much social distancing going on. Sure, some bars and restaurants are closed in places where the virus is running amock, nothing comparable to Italy where you need to fill a form everytime you want to leave your house.

So if you don't want to respect social distancing and want to keep doing your thing, there are plenty of opportunities to do so. If you own a restaurant, you can still work with deliveries or take away.

At supermarkets, people are not respecting distances.

Things are going to get vastly worse in the USA very quickly.


I am not calling to an end to social distancing, I think data needs to be analyzed to see if these efforts are actually working and if implementing them has been worth the economic cost.

I think Europe began social distancing before the US did, and I have yet to see the first European nation to have 'flattened' the curve, who knows probably soon.


The countries on the chart going flatter (Denmark, Singapore, South Korea etc) either started distancing early, did aggressive quarantine, or have been testing up the wazoo (each country, in that order). Any country that didn’t do one of those is playing catch up. The math really isn’t that hard to understand.

Image

https://mobile.twitter.com/AkbaruddinIn ... 6624437249

Japan is obviously an outlier because by all accounts they have purposefully undertested.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:09 pm

More evidence of case suppression in Japan - a Japanese NYT reporter reports the Osaka governor leaked health ministry docs to the press the government has kept under wraps. Just in the Osaka/Kobe area alone, there may be 3K new cases:

Osaka Gov @hiroyoshimura has made public an internal Health Ministry document on the rapid spread in coronavirus cases in Osaka & Hyogo. Doc contains dire projections: 3,300+ new cases, of which 200+ will be severe, by early April. Japan currently has just 1000 confirmed cases

https://twitter.com/hirokotabuchi/statu ... 28033?s=21
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:30 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

Airworthy99, Italy has asked itself the same questions weeks ag: Isn't this premature, aren't we destroying our economy and businesses over this for nothing?
Boy have they changed their mind since.
Come back in 4 weeks and we'll see what you think about it.
By the way, if we may believe CNN, Trump is itching to lift social distancing at the end of the 15 days.

In any case in the US there isn't much social distancing going on. Sure, some bars and restaurants are closed in places where the virus is running amock, nothing comparable to Italy where you need to fill a form everytime you want to leave your house.

So if you don't want to respect social distancing and want to keep doing your thing, there are plenty of opportunities to do so. If you own a restaurant, you can still work with deliveries or take away.

At supermarkets, people are not respecting distances.

Things are going to get vastly worse in the USA very quickly.


I am not calling to an end to social distancing, I think data needs to be analyzed to see if these efforts are actually working and if implementing them has been worth the economic cost.

I think Europe began social distancing before the US did, and I have yet to see the first European nation to have 'flattened' the curve, who knows probably soon.


The countries on the chart going flatter (Denmark, Singapore, South Korea etc) either started distancing early, did aggressive quarantine, or have been testing up the wazoo (each country, in that order). Any country that didn’t do one of those is playing catch up. The math really isn’t that hard to understand.

Image

https://mobile.twitter.com/AkbaruddinIn ... 6624437249

Japan is obviously an outlier because by all accounts they have purposefully undertested.


Hong Kong has seen a sudden spike in cases, despite their efforts of social distancing:

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/cor ... 0caef83094

This coronavirus crisis is going to be for the long run, it won't magically disappear despite any efforts, I can't see how social distancing till a vaccine will be worth it, but only perhaps slowing in some places.

I think the best course of action is increasing health infrastructure, isolate those at risk and continue trying drugs that help reduce the length of symptoms. But we need to move on.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aesma
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:32 pm

Italy has asked for help. France would like to help, but we don't have enough for ourselves already. If Cuba and Russia can help, they're welcome to, and at least in the case of Russia (add in China), they're clearly doing it for diplomatic points, but who cares ?

Italy getting help from Cuba but not the US, imagine that.

Actually France, with Germany and the UK, is sending aid to Iran.
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Aesma
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:44 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Because experts are not experts in everything that's why. You can be an expert in the medical field, but not in others. We are holding this country hostage based on just a group of experts, I am afraid of group-think here.


You are absolutely right, experts are not experts in everything, that's why listening to economists when dealing with a health crisis is not the way to go.

Strangely enough your "groupthink" seem to be happening all over the world, in countries with various cultures... And of course strict social isolation aka quarantine works very well, it's proven.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
aaden
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:49 pm

Does anyone have and data or thoughts on the number of unreported cases that have occurred or are currently out there? I wonder what the spread actually is or has been prior to the start of testing.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:20 pm

aaden wrote:
Does anyone have and data or thoughts on the number of unreported cases that have occurred or are currently out there? I wonder what the spread actually is or has been prior to the start of testing.


I don't have numbers but IMO these are the countries that barring a cure, will soon be overwhelmed:

-Japan: drama unfolding, government censorship will be breached soon as medical staff will start to be overwhelmed, start to trample the administration. The Japanese government is aiming for herd immunity and hoping that it will blow over before the truth comes out. I don't even know why people are still talking about the olympics when people are probably dying by the thousands in Japan as we speak?

-USA: following Italy's curve a couple of weeks behind, social distancing will see resistance from people defending constitutional liberties and economic impact, media focussing on detroning Trump.

-Netherlands: still betting on herd immunity, Dutch now heavily criticised by and banned from entering neighboring countries.

-UK: Separatist PM who is perhaps good for Brexit, but this crisis needs a housefather who will protect his population, not an idealist.

-Germany: industry before well-being. No non-sense approach resulting in non-sense and censorship.


Social distancing is a measure that only works if everyone adheres to it. This is still not the case even in Italy. So we'll see increases until everyone has been isolated for a couple of months and all the sick have been identified through testing and isolated, or completely cured.
2 weeks of semi-respected social distancing is not going to have any effect.
It will take months of hermetic lockdown to see a marked result. No supermarket or pharmacy visits, aggressive testing and isolation.

The fact is that the more governments drag their feet, the more it is likely they will be overwhelmed and society will disintegrate into chaos.
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:28 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:

For once, some intelligent talk from Friedman. Again, “.elites” are driving the train and have no “skin in the game”. Not one of them will be without a retirement, college money for children, a business.


It's not really intelligent at all. It is a complete detachment from the reality and logistics and horror of what is occurring. Hospitals will be overwhelmed. Currently "workers" with underlying susceptibility would be put at risk, or their family members would be. You are proposing a poor choice.


Isn't it amazing how may are willing to let 2 million or so fellow citizens die because they don't like the looks of their stock portfolio?

Money doesn't go away in a crisis, just someone else has it. And if those elites have something that gets clobbert hard, it is stock portfolios.

Given that they have access to excellent healthcare and can afford to totally self isolate, to the point of buying an island for themselves if they like, they should be the ones screaming....

Best regards
Thomas


Isn't amazing that your country (GERMANY) is not doing any lock-down, business as usual. Yes for them it doesn't matter if millions die. Perhaps they know money does go away in a crisis, unless why haven't they done any lock downs ?
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:29 pm

Aesma wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Because experts are not experts in everything that's why. You can be an expert in the medical field, but not in others. We are holding this country hostage based on just a group of experts, I am afraid of group-think here.


You are absolutely right, experts are not experts in everything, that's why listening to economists when dealing with a health crisis is not the way to go.

Strangely enough your "groupthink" seem to be happening all over the world, in countries with various cultures... And of course strict social isolation aka quarantine works very well, it's proven.


Yes, where is it proven? in France? In Italy? where with data please. Thanks
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:57 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Because experts are not experts in everything that's why. You can be an expert in the medical field, but not in others. We are holding this country hostage based on just a group of experts, I am afraid of group-think here.


You are absolutely right, experts are not experts in everything, that's why listening to economists when dealing with a health crisis is not the way to go.

Strangely enough your "groupthink" seem to be happening all over the world, in countries with various cultures... And of course strict social isolation aka quarantine works very well, it's proven.


Yes, where is it proven? in France? In Italy? where with data please. Thanks


Here are some images from a hospital in Madrid, Spain.


Image

https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/upl ... 690844.jpg


Sure, let's all go back to working and mingling, nothing to see here, it's just the flu.
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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par13del
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:58 pm

What is the end game for locking people and a country down, to give scientist time to develop a cure or some chemical to kill the virus? At present, all we know about the scientist is that they are estimating a year or more for a vaccine or cure, hopefully they are also looking at an improved version of Lysol that will also kill the virus when exposed in the elements.

If a country lock's down and does "flatten the curve", no new infections for a week, what happens next, declare the country virus free then open for domestic business only with no cross border traffic?
 
N212R
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:17 pm

scbriml wrote:
If New York mandates that the Staten Island Ferry stop operating, it would be only right and proper that New York mitigate the harm its direct action causes. Extraordinary times require extraordinary measures. Why do you seem to think that's so unreasonable?


Where does NY get the money to "mitigate" all the economic distress? Does money grow on trees in your backyard?
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:17 pm

Governments across Europe are criticising hoarders, saying that there won't be food shortages.

The reality is that truckers and logistics are now facing more and more challenges, among them traffic jams at borders, closed highway facilities (no bathrooms, no restaurants, hotels closing) and it's not sure that this distribution system won't all come to a grinding halt somehow. What are besides the above possible bottlenecks? Truck parts becoming scarce and immobilising fleets of trucks?
Supermarkets are not able to restock flour, pasta, rice and shelves are remaining empty. Notably, flour wheat and rice aren't grown in greenhouses, so we might have to wait until summer/fall to restock?.

Supermarket workers are exposed.

Petrol companies also face very tough times with strongly depressed demand and low prices. I wonder how that will work out for the logistics sector.

Perhaps governments are wrong about hoarding foods and supplies as much as they were wrong about calls to not panic, no need to close borders.

Von der Leyen seems worried:

https://youtu.be/5sMK_DYOmfo

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a video statement that measures introduced to slow the spread of the coronavirus had also slowed and sometimes paralyzed transport, causing delays and risking shortages.

"This weekend we had some crossing points with more than 40 kilometers of queues. This is a waiting time of up to 18 hours. This has to stop," she said.


https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03 ... rders.html
 
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Tugger
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:27 pm

par13del wrote:
What is the end game for locking people and a country down, to give scientist time to develop a cure or some chemical to kill the virus? At present, all we know about the scientist is that they are estimating a year or more for a vaccine or cure, hopefully they are also looking at an improved version of Lysol that will also kill the virus when exposed in the elements.

If a country lock's down and does "flatten the curve", no new infections for a week, what happens next, declare the country virus free then open for domestic business only with no cross border traffic?

The entire intent is to find those that are infected BEFORE they infect others. Then you can deal with those fewer cases versus the 10 times 10 times 100 as the unknown infected infect others who then infect even more.

The important thing is to be able to treat those that do have it, and do so effectively and in a timely manner.

Tugg
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There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Tugger
Posts: 11231
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:32 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Governments across Europe are criticising hoarders, saying that there won't be food shortages.

The reality is that truckers and logistics are now facing more and more challenges, among them traffic jams at borders, closed highway facilities (no bathrooms, no restaurants, hotels closing) and it's not sure that this distribution system won't all come to a grinding halt somehow. What are besides the above possible bottlenecks? Truck parts becoming scarce and immobilising fleets of trucks?
Supermarkets are not able to restock flour, pasta, rice and shelves are remaining empty. Notably, flour wheat and rice aren't grown in greenhouses, so we might have to wait until summer/fall to restock?.

Supermarket workers are exposed.

Petrol companies also face very tough times with strongly depressed demand and low prices. I wonder how that will work out for the logistics sector.

Perhaps governments are wrong about hoarding foods and supplies as much as they were wrong about calls to not panic, no need to close borders.

Von der Leyen seems worried:

https://youtu.be/5sMK_DYOmfo

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a video statement that measures introduced to slow the spread of the coronavirus had also slowed and sometimes paralyzed transport, causing delays and risking shortages.

"This weekend we had some crossing points with more than 40 kilometers of queues. This is a waiting time of up to 18 hours. This has to stop," she said.


https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03 ... rders.html

The USA is fortunate that this is not the problem here. The vast majority of basic food supplies and household consumables come from or can be sourced from within the country itself.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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par13del
Posts: 10821
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:35 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The reality is that truckers and logistics are now facing more and more challenges, among them traffic jams at borders, closed highway facilities (no bathrooms, no restaurants, hotels closing) and it's not sure that this distribution system won't all come to a grinding halt somehow. What are besides the above possible bottlenecks? Truck parts becoming scarce and immobilising fleets of trucks?
Supermarkets are not able to restock flour, pasta, rice and shelves are remaining empty. Notably, flour wheat and rice aren't grown in greenhouses, so we might have to wait until summer/fall to restock?.

Now we see the difference between air and land logistics and how easy it is for countries to shut down land versus air.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:38 pm

par13del wrote:
What is the end game for locking people and a country down, to give scientist time to develop a cure or some chemical to kill the virus? At present, all we know about the scientist is that they are estimating a year or more for a vaccine or cure, hopefully they are also looking at an improved version of Lysol that will also kill the virus when exposed in the elements.

If a country lock's down and does "flatten the curve", no new infections for a week, what happens next, declare the country virus free then open for domestic business only with no cross border traffic?



We keep it locked down until the virtus dissapears/works it's way through the population, a cure/vaccine arrives. Other than that we are looking to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed. If we can expand medical supplies and doctors to deal with the situation, great, but right now we don't have that.

If you look in all the countries, we are rapidly on pace to overwhelm quickly. in 10 days, the US has gone from 2 thousand to 40 thousand cases. We do that in the next 10 days, that will be 800 thousand cases.
We need to flatten the curve to keep all hospitals functioning,
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
LOT767301ER
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:45 pm

If you look in all the countries, we are rapidly on pace to overwhelm quickly. in 10 days, the US has gone from 2 thousand to 40 thousand cases. We do that in the next 10 days, that will be 800 thousand cases.
We need to flatten the curve to keep all hospitals functioning,


Who is to say we didnt have 100,000 cases 10 days ago? The only thing you are seeing is people getting tested so the denominator is rising. I guarantee that if you tested 1 million more people the denominator would rise exponentially but that does not mean jack other than the majority have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic.
 
aaden
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:02 pm

LOT767301ER wrote:
If you look in all the countries, we are rapidly on pace to overwhelm quickly. in 10 days, the US has gone from 2 thousand to 40 thousand cases. We do that in the next 10 days, that will be 800 thousand cases.
We need to flatten the curve to keep all hospitals functioning,


Who is to say we didnt have 100,000 cases 10 days ago? The only thing you are seeing is people getting tested so the denominator is rising. I guarantee that if you tested 1 million more people the denominator would rise exponentially but that does not mean jack other than the majority have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic.



This is what I wonder....How long is it going on- and how big are the unreported numbers.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:03 pm

LOT767301ER wrote:
If you look in all the countries, we are rapidly on pace to overwhelm quickly. in 10 days, the US has gone from 2 thousand to 40 thousand cases. We do that in the next 10 days, that will be 800 thousand cases.
We need to flatten the curve to keep all hospitals functioning,


Who is to say we didnt have 100,000 cases 10 days ago? The only thing you are seeing is people getting tested so the denominator is rising. I guarantee that if you tested 1 million more people the denominator would rise exponentially but that does not mean jack other than the majority have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic.



We go by what they are measuring, not by what we assume. There could be many other cases out there, or maybe not. If the curve flattens and goes down,. then we reevaluate. While the curve is going exponential we know that there is still widespread expansion of the virus.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:09 pm

Just here to eat a plate of crow for @Waterbomber2 re the Olympics.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1439961&p=21971891&hilit=tokyo#p21971891
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:20 pm

Is a depression better? Would 100,000 deaths due to economic collapse be better? Panic much?

The worst hit country, by percentage, is now Iceland with extensive testing 2 cases per 1,000 persons. This will go down as the worst overreaction ever.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/daily-coron ... -page/#001
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:43 pm

stl07 wrote:
BlueberryWheats wrote:
stl07 wrote:
https://fox8.com/news/coronavirus/sen-rand-paul-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/
Guess who just got the virus :lol: :lol:

I would say I wish no evil on anybody, but Karma is also a b*tch


Unfortunately, some of us are given a screen saying that this page cannot be accessed from Europe. Who is it?

Huh, that's odd.

He's a US senator that delayed aid to virus impacted people, but now he got the virus himself.


Wishing this virus on anyone says a lot about your character.

The Democratic party is now holding back aid for businesses and people because there wasn't funding for windmills and planned parenthood in the bill.

Do they also deserve to get this virus? Do you see where this is going? Rand Paul was stabbed by a leftist lunatic on his own lawn and spent weeks in the hospital. He is a medical doctor who performs free eye surgery for people who need it but don't have the money. And now he's got the virus. And the left is celebrating.

What a poisonous thought process. At least there are still some people on the left with integrity. You're not one of them.
Last edited by JetBuddy on Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1346
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:43 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Is a depression better? Would 100,000 deaths due to economic collapse be better? Panic much?

The worst hit country, by percentage, is now Iceland with extensive testing 2 cases per 1,000 persons. This will go down as the worst overreaction ever.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/daily-coron ... -page/#001


I hope not, I hope that causing panic and fear would not lead this country into a depression. So far 500 dead from coronavirus.

on the 2017-2018 flu season 61,099 people died, 44 million people got infected, 808,000 got hospitalized. On average 165 people died because of the flu on that season per day.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

I understand this might be more deadly, but thus far the economic damage for 500 dead, its incalculable. We don't know what will come out of this.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
NYCVIE
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:50 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Is a depression better? Would 100,000 deaths due to economic collapse be better? Panic much?


The global effort to slow and curb the spread of the disease is to prevent the deaths of millions and chaos in hospitals around the world. What's happening in Italy is only the beginning of what would happen around the globe without these drastic measures. Get real. Given the long incubation period, these measures are going to need over a month before we see real results.

I'd venture to guess that at least the travel industry would be in the same exact position even if there were no government mandated lockdowns. If millions around the world were dying because of a highly infectious virus, who would want to travel? In that scenario you would have similar economic recession/depression but also many unnecessary fatalities.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Because experts are not experts in everything that's why. You can be an expert in the medical field, but not in others. We are holding this country hostage based on just a group of experts, I am afraid of group-think here.

I am pretty sure they will advise us to stay put for 3 months, which would be their point of view to mitigate this. But as you can see, your 'economics expert' Thomas Friedman foresees economic disaster if we extend this.

There is going to be a point 'experts' in all diverse fields will not agree on the best solution to this going forward, should we just listen to some and not listen to other experts?


Of course experts with different agendas and from different fields will have conflicting points of view. It's a no brainer that an economic expert would say the cessation of economic activity would not be good for the economy. And no brainer that a public health expert would say that a cessation of public gatherings would help with stopping the spread of the disease. It all comes down to what you value. If you value life and public health (which I would hope would be most important), the public health experts should be the ones you defer to. If you value money more then like an economist, you would see all of this as too much or unnecessary.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Isn't amazing that your country (GERMANY) is not doing any lock-down, business as usual. Yes for them it doesn't matter if millions die. Perhaps they know money does go away in a crisis, unless why haven't they done any lock downs ?


Look at the statistics. There's a pattern in countries that didn't aggressively test from the start (US, UK, Italy, Spain, France) and ones that did (Germany, Singapore, South Korea). Germany has almost 30,000 cases but around 120 deaths. The Netherlands has a fifth of the number of known (emphasis on known) cases but more deaths. The lockdowns are to not overwhelm the healthcare system, not to eradicate the disease. Testing is key and many countries would not have needed to lockdown if they had adequately tested from the beginning.

In Germany they've been aggressive with testing and subsequent quarantines for the people who do have the virus. Same with South Korea and Singapore. But if your society can't or doesn't test you would have no idea who has the disease, where it's most prominent, and most importantly how and where it's spreading. So in that case, you have to lockdown under the assumption that anyone could be a carrier. In a society that does know those things a strict lockdown wouldn't be necessary as you wouldn't have to make that assumption. It's actually that simple.
 
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Tugger
Posts: 11231
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:54 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
The Democratic party is now holding back aid for businesses and people because there wasn't funding for windmills and planned parenthood in the bill.

And you know this 100% as an absolute fact as the only reasons for an aid bill being withheld? Or are you parroting a soundbite you heard/saw somewhere else with no real sourcing for back up or accuracy?

Of course I am watching the House Dems now trying to launch "their" relief bill but I can only imagine the resistance it will run into, after if you didn't want to support "our" bill, why should we be willing to support yours? FUn - with a capital F U.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1346
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:59 pm

NYCVIE wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Is a depression better? Would 100,000 deaths due to economic collapse be better? Panic much?


The global effort to slow and curb the spread of the disease is to prevent the deaths of millions and chaos in hospitals around the world. What's happening in Italy is only the beginning of what would happen around the globe without these drastic measures. Get real. Given the long incubation period, these measures are going to need over a month before we see real results.

I'd venture to guess that at least the travel industry would be in the same exact position even if there were no government mandated lockdowns. If millions around the world were dying because of a highly infectious virus, who would want to travel? In that scenario you would have similar economic recession/depression but also many unnecessary fatalities.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Because experts are not experts in everything that's why. You can be an expert in the medical field, but not in others. We are holding this country hostage based on just a group of experts, I am afraid of group-think here.

I am pretty sure they will advise us to stay put for 3 months, which would be their point of view to mitigate this. But as you can see, your 'economics expert' Thomas Friedman foresees economic disaster if we extend this.

There is going to be a point 'experts' in all diverse fields will not agree on the best solution to this going forward, should we just listen to some and not listen to other experts?


Of course experts with different agendas and from different fields will have conflicting points of view. It's a no brainer that an economic expert would say the cessation of economic activity would not be good for the economy. And no brainer that a public health expert would say that a cessation of public gatherings would help with stopping the spread of the disease. It all comes down to what you value. If you value life and public health (which I would hope would be most important), the public health experts should be the ones you defer to. If you value money more then like an economist, you would see all of this as too much or unnecessary.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Isn't amazing that your country (GERMANY) is not doing any lock-down, business as usual. Yes for them it doesn't matter if millions die. Perhaps they know money does go away in a crisis, unless why haven't they done any lock downs ?


Look at the statistics. There's a pattern in countries that didn't aggressively test from the start (US, UK, Italy, Spain, France) and ones that did (Germany, Singapore, South Korea). Germany has almost 30,000 cases but around 120 deaths. The Netherlands has a fifth of the number of known (emphasis on known) cases but more deaths. The lockdowns are to not overwhelm the healthcare system, not to eradicate the disease. Testing is key and many countries would not have needed to lockdown if they had adequately tested from the beginning.

In Germany they've been aggressive with testing and subsequent quarantines for the people who do have the virus. Same with South Korea and Singapore. But if your society can't or doesn't test you would have no idea who has the disease, where it's most prominent, and most importantly how and where it's spreading. So in that case, you have to lockdown under the assumption that anyone could be a carrier. In a society that does know those things a strict lockdown wouldn't be necessary as you wouldn't have to make that assumption. It's actually that simple.


The US has gotten pretty agressive with the testing, I think the US is testing more than any other country right now, despite the early slow testing.

As for Germany look at the graph posted in reply 3159 https://mobile.twitter.com/AkbaruddinIn ... 6624437249

Germany is not flattened, hasn't. Is if testing is the only reason they haven't locked down, with more reason after the 15 day period ends, we should relax restrictions and get this country back to work.

As for the present situation with the deaths and the economy, you can see my post 3182, clearly we have never stopped the economy to stop the spread of a deadly flu that killed north of 61,000 people. So lets see what's going to come out of this.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:03 pm

Tugger wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
The Democratic party is now holding back aid for businesses and people because there wasn't funding for windmills and planned parenthood in the bill.

And you know this 100% as an absolute fact as the only reasons for an aid bill being withheld? Or are you parroting a soundbite you heard/saw somewhere else with no real sourcing for back up or accuracy?

Of course I am watching the House Dems now trying to launch "their" relief bill but I can only imagine the resistance it will run into, after if you didn't want to support "our" bill, why should we be willing to support yours? FUn - with a capital F U.

Tugg


Yes I know this for an absolute fact. The Democrats were onboard with the bill, they even helped create it.

Then Pelosi changed her mind and wanted funding for renewable energy and Planned Parenthood included.

I think this is the wrong time for political bickering. Time is of the essence. F U 2.
 
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stl07
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:09 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
stl07 wrote:
BlueberryWheats wrote:

Unfortunately, some of us are given a screen saying that this page cannot be accessed from Europe. Who is it?

Huh, that's odd.

He's a US senator that delayed aid to virus impacted people, but now he got the virus himself.


Wishing this virus on anyone says a lot about your character.

The Democratic party is now holding back aid for businesses and people because there wasn't funding for windmills and planned parenthood in the bill.

Do they also deserve to get this virus? Do you see where this is going? Rand Paul was stabbed by a leftist lunatic on his own lawn and spent weeks in the hospital. He is a medical doctor who performs free eye surgery for people who need it but don't have the money. And now he's got the virus. And the left is celebrating.

What a poisonous thought process. At least there are still some people on the left with integrity. You're not one of them.

I don't wish the virus on anyone, I just don't feel all that bad for him. I hope he gets over it fast and with as little pain as possible, but I don't feel bad for him. And don't tell me I'm not a person with integrity while rallying behind a president who is saying he's doing the best he can while not signing the war powers act to produce masks so that his own interests can make big bucks off of mask production.
Also, has it ever crossed your mind why the Ds are blocking the relief bill. Maybe it's because it gives companies taxpayer money with little regard to what happens to their employees?
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:16 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Is a depression better? Would 100,000 deaths due to economic collapse be better? Panic much?

The worst hit country, by percentage, is now Iceland with extensive testing 2 cases per 1,000 persons. This will go down as the worst overreaction ever.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/daily-coron ... -page/#001



What?

you do not understand that we are at the BEGINNING of the Pandemic?
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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Tugger
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:16 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
Tugger wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
The Democratic party is now holding back aid for businesses and people because there wasn't funding for windmills and planned parenthood in the bill.

And you know this 100% as an absolute fact as the only reasons for an aid bill being withheld? Or are you parroting a soundbite you heard/saw somewhere else with no real sourcing for back up or accuracy?

Of course I am watching the House Dems now trying to launch "their" relief bill but I can only imagine the resistance it will run into, after if you didn't want to support "our" bill, why should we be willing to support yours? FUn - with a capital F U.

Tugg


Yes I know this for an absolute fact. The Democrats were onboard with the bill, they even helped create it.

Then Pelosi changed her mind and wanted funding for renewable energy and Planned Parenthood included.

I think this is the wrong time for political bickering. Time is of the essence. F U 2.

Source? Not saying its not accurate, just haven't seen it. (I have seen a lot of each pointing at the other).

And the FU comment was aimed at the situation in congress, not at you. I trust you know that but just want to make sure.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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casinterest
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:20 pm

Tugger wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
Tugger wrote:
And you know this 100% as an absolute fact as the only reasons for an aid bill being withheld? Or are you parroting a soundbite you heard/saw somewhere else with no real sourcing for back up or accuracy?

Of course I am watching the House Dems now trying to launch "their" relief bill but I can only imagine the resistance it will run into, after if you didn't want to support "our" bill, why should we be willing to support yours? FUn - with a capital F U.

Tugg


Yes I know this for an absolute fact. The Democrats were onboard with the bill, they even helped create it.

Then Pelosi changed her mind and wanted funding for renewable energy and Planned Parenthood included.

I think this is the wrong time for political bickering. Time is of the essence. F U 2.

Source? Not saying its not accurate, just haven't seen it. (I have seen a lot of each pointing at the other).

And the FU comment was aimed at the situation in congress, not at you. I trust you know that but just want to make sure.

Tugg


Pelosi isn't in the Senate. you know it is not an accurate statement when the person doesn't understand American Government.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
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scbriml
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:24 pm

par13del wrote:
If a country lock's down and does "flatten the curve", no new infections for a week, what happens next, declare the country virus free then open for domestic business only with no cross border traffic?


I don't see any country declaring themselves Covid-19 free for quite some time yet. Obviously, not all countries will reach that point at the same time, so things will only return to normal very slowly, IMHO.

N212R wrote:
scbriml wrote:
If New York mandates that the Staten Island Ferry stop operating, it would be only right and proper that New York mitigate the harm its direct action causes. Extraordinary times require extraordinary measures. Why do you seem to think that's so unreasonable?


Where does NY get the money to "mitigate" all the economic distress? Does money grow on trees in your backyard?


Does NY not raise any taxes? Does the government not have money? It seems some are happy to spend trillions on pointless wars, but don't want their government to support the very people their own actions are hurting.

Why do you seem to think that's so unreasonable? :confused:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:25 pm

casinterest wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Is a depression better? Would 100,000 deaths due to economic collapse be better? Panic much?

The worst hit country, by percentage, is now Iceland with extensive testing 2 cases per 1,000 persons. This will go down as the worst overreaction ever.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/daily-coron ... -page/#001



What?

you do not understand that we are at the BEGINNING of the Pandemic?


If THAT’S true, we will have a global economic depression that will bring results like the last one. I’d take my chances with the virus. No even China has has anything like what you think will happen and they’re getting past it. We are going to find this reaction a tragic mistake.

Not often I agree with Trotskyist, but I’ll make an exception.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/03/1 ... lypticism/
 
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Tugger
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:30 pm

casinterest wrote:
Tugger wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:

Yes I know this for an absolute fact. The Democrats were onboard with the bill, they even helped create it.

Then Pelosi changed her mind and wanted funding for renewable energy and Planned Parenthood included.

I think this is the wrong time for political bickering. Time is of the essence. F U 2.

Source? Not saying its not accurate, just haven't seen it. (I have seen a lot of each pointing at the other).

And the FU comment was aimed at the situation in congress, not at you. I trust you know that but just want to make sure.

Tugg


Pelosi isn't in the Senate. you know it is not an accurate statement when the person doesn't understand American Government.

Yes, but it is better to have the person go find that themselves. More is learned, and you engage the person and find real information.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:32 pm

casinterest wrote:
Tugger wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:

Yes I know this for an absolute fact. The Democrats were onboard with the bill, they even helped create it.

Then Pelosi changed her mind and wanted funding for renewable energy and Planned Parenthood included.

I think this is the wrong time for political bickering. Time is of the essence. F U 2.

Source? Not saying its not accurate, just haven't seen it. (I have seen a lot of each pointing at the other).

And the FU comment was aimed at the situation in congress, not at you. I trust you know that but just want to make sure.

Tugg


Pelosi isn't in the Senate. you know it is not an accurate statement when the person doesn't understand American Government.


I know how the American political system works. You're giving Pelosi too little credit. She pulls the strings. Do you really believe everything she says and does is all confined to matters within the House?
 
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casinterest
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:34 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Is a depression better? Would 100,000 deaths due to economic collapse be better? Panic much?

The worst hit country, by percentage, is now Iceland with extensive testing 2 cases per 1,000 persons. This will go down as the worst overreaction ever.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/daily-coron ... -page/#001



What?

you do not understand that we are at the BEGINNING of the Pandemic?


If THAT’S true, we will have a global economic depression that will bring results like the last one. I’d take my chances with the virus. No even China has has anything like what you think will happen and they’re getting past it. We are going to find this reaction a tragic mistake.

Not often I agree with Trotskyist, but I’ll make an exception.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/03/1 ... lypticism/


Sorry, but the current numbers don't lie, and we will have a depression regardless with the lost hours of work.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


China is still battling to contain it, and that is with a massive lock down.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
aaden
Posts: 819
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2006 9:49 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:34 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Is a depression better? Would 100,000 deaths due to economic collapse be better? Panic much?

The worst hit country, by percentage, is now Iceland with extensive testing 2 cases per 1,000 persons. This will go down as the worst overreaction ever.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/daily-coron ... -page/#001



What?

you do not understand that we are at the BEGINNING of the Pandemic?


If THAT’S true, we will have a global economic depression that will bring results like the last one. I’d take my chances with the virus. No even China has has anything like what you think will happen and they’re getting past it. We are going to find this reaction a tragic mistake.

Not often I agree with Trotskyist, but I’ll make an exception.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/03/1 ... lypticism/



Possibly true...however can you trust the Chinese data? Didn't they come to a hard shut down to do it?
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 13564
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:34 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Source? Not saying its not accurate, just haven't seen it. (I have seen a lot of each pointing at the other).

And the FU comment was aimed at the situation in congress, not at you. I trust you know that but just want to make sure.

Tugg


Pelosi isn't in the Senate. you know it is not an accurate statement when the person doesn't understand American Government.


I know how the American political system works. You're giving Pelosi too little credit. She pulls the strings. Do you really believe everything she says and does is all confined to matters within the House?



Sure...., Maybe it is the fact that the GOP is putting to much into not bailing out the workers that are impacted due to government imposed slowdowns.
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did..So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.--Mark Twain
 
NYCVIE
Posts: 384
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2016 11:01 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:46 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
NYCVIE wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Is a depression better? Would 100,000 deaths due to economic collapse be better? Panic much?


The global effort to slow and curb the spread of the disease is to prevent the deaths of millions and chaos in hospitals around the world. What's happening in Italy is only the beginning of what would happen around the globe without these drastic measures. Get real. Given the long incubation period, these measures are going to need over a month before we see real results.

I'd venture to guess that at least the travel industry would be in the same exact position even if there were no government mandated lockdowns. If millions around the world were dying because of a highly infectious virus, who would want to travel? In that scenario you would have similar economic recession/depression but also many unnecessary fatalities.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Because experts are not experts in everything that's why. You can be an expert in the medical field, but not in others. We are holding this country hostage based on just a group of experts, I am afraid of group-think here.

I am pretty sure they will advise us to stay put for 3 months, which would be their point of view to mitigate this. But as you can see, your 'economics expert' Thomas Friedman foresees economic disaster if we extend this.

There is going to be a point 'experts' in all diverse fields will not agree on the best solution to this going forward, should we just listen to some and not listen to other experts?


Of course experts with different agendas and from different fields will have conflicting points of view. It's a no brainer that an economic expert would say the cessation of economic activity would not be good for the economy. And no brainer that a public health expert would say that a cessation of public gatherings would help with stopping the spread of the disease. It all comes down to what you value. If you value life and public health (which I would hope would be most important), the public health experts should be the ones you defer to. If you value money more then like an economist, you would see all of this as too much or unnecessary.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Isn't amazing that your country (GERMANY) is not doing any lock-down, business as usual. Yes for them it doesn't matter if millions die. Perhaps they know money does go away in a crisis, unless why haven't they done any lock downs ?


Look at the statistics. There's a pattern in countries that didn't aggressively test from the start (US, UK, Italy, Spain, France) and ones that did (Germany, Singapore, South Korea). Germany has almost 30,000 cases but around 120 deaths. The Netherlands has a fifth of the number of known (emphasis on known) cases but more deaths. The lockdowns are to not overwhelm the healthcare system, not to eradicate the disease. Testing is key and many countries would not have needed to lockdown if they had adequately tested from the beginning.

In Germany they've been aggressive with testing and subsequent quarantines for the people who do have the virus. Same with South Korea and Singapore. But if your society can't or doesn't test you would have no idea who has the disease, where it's most prominent, and most importantly how and where it's spreading. So in that case, you have to lockdown under the assumption that anyone could be a carrier. In a society that does know those things a strict lockdown wouldn't be necessary as you wouldn't have to make that assumption. It's actually that simple.


The US has gotten pretty agressive with the testing, I think the US is testing more than any other country right now, despite the early slow testing.

As for Germany look at the graph posted in reply 3159 https://mobile.twitter.com/AkbaruddinIn ... 6624437249

Germany is not flattened, hasn't. Is if testing is the only reason they haven't locked down, with more reason after the 15 day period ends, we should relax restrictions and get this country back to work.

As for the present situation with the deaths and the economy, you can see my post 3182, clearly we have never stopped the economy to stop the spread of a deadly flu that killed north of 61,000 people. So lets see what's going to come out of this.


It's already too late for the US. The testing needed to have started at the beginning, you know when Trump was claiming this would "go away." All the testing is going to do now is show us a more accurate picture of how many people have the virus. We're past the point where this would have been helpful in terms of aggressive contact tracing to literally track down clusters. At the rate of increasing cases and especially with more testing the US will easily end up having more cases than any other country, probably by the end of this week. The testing is literally confirming the fact that the number of cases are out of control in the US which reaffirms the need for the lockdown.

I'm not sure where you have this idea that life is business as usual in Germany? Restaurants are takeout only and public gatherings are cancelled there as well. Germany is also far better positioned to handle this crisis since they've prepared from the beginning. Even with the increase of cases there is no worry that the healthcare system there will be overwhelmed. Meanwhile NYC will run out of supplies by the end of this week. Again, at this point containment isn't a feasible short term goal - the virus will spread. What's different is the US healthcare system will not be able to handle that whereas the German healthcare system is in a much better position to do so. And that's why we need to flatten the curve so we don't get to the point where people who otherwise would be able to survive don't because we don't have the medical bandwitdth to treat them (see Italy).

So many things go into why the US is in the situation it's in and probably the number one thing is a shitty healthcare system that was always going to fall apart in any real crisis coupled with a populace who literally cannot afford to stay home because of lack of paid sick leave. This is what happens in a society that chases monetary gain above all else and you feed into this by saying "let's just go back to normal in 15 days so we save the economy." Our country has always put money above public health and now we're paying the price for that.
 
MarcoT
Posts: 248
Joined: Tue May 24, 2005 9:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:47 pm

In Italy the decline in new cases and new deaths continues:

- 4790 new cases, down 13,8% from 5560 yesterday and 26,9% from 6557 two days ago

- 602 new deaths, down 7,5% from 651 yesterday and 24,0% from 793 two days ago

As a reference, the US posted 8617 new case so far today, Spain 4321, Germany 4183 and France 3838 - but yes, quarantines and lockdowns don't work...
Denial is not a river in Alaska.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... c_in_Italy
Too short space for my favorite hopelessly long winded one liner
 
NYCVIE
Posts: 384
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2016 11:01 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:48 pm

aaden wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
casinterest wrote:


What?

you do not understand that we are at the BEGINNING of the Pandemic?


If THAT’S true, we will have a global economic depression that will bring results like the last one. I’d take my chances with the virus. No even China has has anything like what you think will happen and they’re getting past it. We are going to find this reaction a tragic mistake.

Not often I agree with Trotskyist, but I’ll make an exception.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/03/1 ... lypticism/



Possibly true...however can you trust the Chinese data? Didn't they come to a hard shut down to do it?


Even if you do trust the Chinese data they aren't "getting past it" because business as usual. Wuhan is literally just easing the lockdown there after almost two months.

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