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AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:39 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Ummm... The complications and death rate for COVID19 are higher than the "normal flu", So I don't know that it can be handled the exact same. I think it warrants higher effort and concern. And there is a vaccine for, what most people call "the flu" and once the COVID19 variant vaccine is developed and the public vaccinated, it won't be an ongoing large-scale issue.

Tugg


We don't actually know that. Death rates for COVID-19 varies tremendously, look at the death rate for South Korea, look at the death rate for Germany, then Italy etc the data is completely flawed at this time. The experts are trying to figure it out completely.


Do they know precisely? No. But epidemiologists are capable of educated guesses via statistical analysis. Dr. Fauci testified to Congress:

Since COVID-19 emerged in China two and a half months ago, "it clearly is not as lethal ... but it certainly spreads better," he said, adding seasonal flu has a mortality rate of 0.1%.

The WHO's estimated mortality rate for COVID-19 started off at 2%, Fauci said. If you count all the estimated cases of people who may have it but haven't been diagnosed yet, the mortality rate is probably closer to 1%, he said, "which means it's 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu."


https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/11/top ... he-us.html


Yes it certainly seems to be more lethal no question, but the figure varies tremendously across nations that have it. In the US currently its at +-1%.

And there are people that haven't been tested for sure, if you take into account those who haven't tested, the number sure goes down. So for now we are all panicked and scared as crazy for a disease we yet know how bad it is basing ourselves on Italy, Spain and other countries huge death count to be more scared.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
Jalap
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:25 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:47 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
It doesn't have to be all or nothing. Keep those most susceptible and who can't fight off the virus isolated. For everyone else we need to get back to work and life. You don't know what real suffering is if we allow unemployment to reach 30%+.

It's impossible to keep the most susceptoble isolated. Plus, there are plenty younger people dying too. Not to mention the ones that got severely ill and spent one or two weeks in hospital. In my country, that's no problem because of health care. Not sure what two weeks in hospital would mean for somebody in your country.

Unemployment off course is suffering, yet I would prefer it over death.
And again, social security is a blessing in these days.
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8507
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:50 pm

Jalap wrote:
rfields5421 wrote:
But a statewide lockdown makes no sense. The majority of the counties in Texas has not reported a single case. We have one county, Brewster, in Texas with more land area than the State of Connecticut. The population of Brewster County is less than 10,000. No reported cases of the virus in that county or for almost 100 miles in any direction.

As long as nobody is allowed to travel into Brewter County, your argumentation makes sense.
If not, cases will pop up in Brewster County.
And if travel then still isn't forbidden, the virus will migrate back to places that are/were in lockdown.

So if Brewster County doesn't play ball, all others' efforts are in vain.


Containment isn’t possible anymore. The argument is how to go about slowing the spread.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8507
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:52 pm

Jalap wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
It doesn't have to be all or nothing. Keep those most susceptible and who can't fight off the virus isolated. For everyone else we need to get back to work and life. You don't know what real suffering is if we allow unemployment to reach 30%+.

It's impossible to keep the most susceptoble isolated. Plus, there are plenty younger people dying too. Not to mention the ones that got severely ill and spent one or two weeks in hospital. In my country, that's no problem because of health care. Not sure what two weeks in hospital would mean for somebody in your country.

Unemployment off course is suffering, yet I would prefer it over death.
And again, social security is a blessing in these days.


The money from social security comes from the economy. No economy, no social security.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:54 pm

NYCVIE wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Ummm... The complications and death rate for COVID19 are higher than the "normal flu", So I don't know that it can be handled the exact same. I think it warrants higher effort and concern. And there is a vaccine for, what most people call "the flu" and once the COVID19 variant vaccine is developed and the public vaccinated, it won't be an ongoing large-scale issue.

Tugg

I am not saying these have to be treated the same, I am saying there has to be a common asessment method - where "acceptable" and "unacceptable" are somehow defined, and cost and benefit are compared.
It definitely sucks to do that for human lives being at stake, but that is routinely done anyway.
Would we lock down for 2018-2019 season flu? Guess we didn't. Would we lock for 1918 flu today? I suspect yes. What about situations in between?
There has to be some logic behind all these decisions.


You are correct. But the public health crisis we're in now is unlike one we've seen since the 1918 flu. I think people see the "low" death rates and assume that it really cannot be comparable but part of the reason we're seeing those numbers is because of efforts to contain and slow the spread of the virus. China and Italy locked down which is probably helping them to not be in the hundreds of thousands in terms of serious infections (which depending on what you believe China may be). The fact that we're heading towards those numbers even with a lockdown should make one cautious of what the numbers would look like without.

Remember, death is one part of the virus, but anyone can be seriously taken out for weeks. The flu has a vaccine and this does not. This is novel and the flu is not. We don't even have enough reliable data on what immunity looks like for COVID because it literally hasn't been around long enough. If there was a widely available vaccine for COVID-19 there would be no talk of a lockdown. To me, for that very fact it doesn't make any sense to even bring up the flu in any comparison.


I think Italy has actually caused more panic than China. And one thing I see is I think Italy must have cases in the hundreds of thousands, and we are freaking out because their death rate hovers 10%. They either stopped testing mild cases or did not have sufficient test to do large scale testing. if 300,000 people have coronavirus in Italy as one estimate it must be around 2.2%.

As for South Korea its on 1.3% the death rate. Again how about those who were not tested?

China's is 4.0% death rate.

Iran's rate is 7.8% death rate.

Spain is 7.0%.

And Germany is 0.4%!! yes 0.4% in Germany.

This is all over the place, whilst in the US its presently 1.3%
So that's the data coming out.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:58 pm

PPVRA wrote:
Jalap wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
It doesn't have to be all or nothing. Keep those most susceptible and who can't fight off the virus isolated. For everyone else we need to get back to work and life. You don't know what real suffering is if we allow unemployment to reach 30%+.

It's impossible to keep the most susceptoble isolated. Plus, there are plenty younger people dying too. Not to mention the ones that got severely ill and spent one or two weeks in hospital. In my country, that's no problem because of health care. Not sure what two weeks in hospital would mean for somebody in your country.

Unemployment off course is suffering, yet I would prefer it over death.
And again, social security is a blessing in these days.


The money from social security comes from the economy. No economy, no social security.


Emergency congressional action to suspend mortgage, rent, and credit obligations till the curve is flattened and healthcare has a chance to keep up. No socialist takeover, drastically smaller handouts needed - things stay as they are - just on hold for a bit. Who knows? Could also avert the Fed from having to print trillions more in the next few months. Citizens and businesses of all sizes could use the breathing space. Keeping obligations owed while everything is shut is what’s killing everyone.
Last edited by Aaron747 on Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
Jalap
Posts: 640
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:59 pm

PPVRA wrote:
The money from social security comes from the economy. No economy, no social security.


No. No economy, more debt for the country. Economy will revive, debts will be payed.
Surely there'll be a cost, probably higher taxes. I'll gladly pay those.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2519
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:07 am

Aaron747 wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
Jalap wrote:
It's impossible to keep the most susceptoble isolated. Plus, there are plenty younger people dying too. Not to mention the ones that got severely ill and spent one or two weeks in hospital. In my country, that's no problem because of health care. Not sure what two weeks in hospital would mean for somebody in your country.

Unemployment off course is suffering, yet I would prefer it over death.
And again, social security is a blessing in these days.


The money from social security comes from the economy. No economy, no social security.


Emergency congressional action to suspend mortgage, rent, and credit obligations till the curve is flattened and healthcare has a chance to keep up. No socialist takeover, drastically smaller handouts needed - things stay as they are - just on hold for a bit. Who knows? Could also avert the Fed from having to print trillions more in the next few months. Citizens and businesses of all sizes could use the breathing space. Keeping obligations owed while everything is shut is what’s killing everyone.


And just how are people going to pay off a big debt that kept being deferred? Look for massive foreclosures if banks are told to stop mortgage collections for a year. Most people cannot handle a balloon payment. They are mostly unheard of anymore for that reason.

I deal with tax foreclosure. Those will increase as well. But I still need buyers for the properties. Your idea of putting everything on pause for God knows how long hurts everyone.
Last edited by TTailedTiger on Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Jalap
Posts: 640
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:08 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
And Germany is 0.4%!! yes 0.4% in Germany.

This is all over the place, whilst in the US its presently 1.3%
So that's the data coming out.

Sorry, but aren't you a little bit in denial?
Even if you have Germany's excellent health care available all over the US, you're still facing hundreds of thousands of premature deaths. If you don't take action like so many other countries do.
Is the Holy Economy worth that?
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:17 am

Jalap wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
And Germany is 0.4%!! yes 0.4% in Germany.

This is all over the place, whilst in the US its presently 1.3%
So that's the data coming out.

Sorry, but aren't you a little bit in denial?
Even if you have Germany's excellent health care available all over the US, you're still facing hundreds of thousands of premature deaths. If you don't take action like so many other countries do.
Is the Holy Economy worth that?


No denial.
If we are to think this virus is going to kill millions, let us at least base ourselves in real data not panic. Death rates for this virus is yet to be officially determined, and we are stopping everything in our lives and altering negatively our future.

All this panic has been based mostly on incomplete data, it seems that the overall percentage of those tested is not the same in all countries, therefore the death rate and the hospitalization rate is not accurate. We are all expecting things to get worse in the US, yet it isn't. Hospitals aren't flooded with sick people like in Italy, it can happen, but it hasn't. We don't know yet, but that's what everyone is expecting.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 12323
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:18 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
PPVRA wrote:

The money from social security comes from the economy. No economy, no social security.


Emergency congressional action to suspend mortgage, rent, and credit obligations till the curve is flattened and healthcare has a chance to keep up. No socialist takeover, drastically smaller handouts needed - things stay as they are - just on hold for a bit. Who knows? Could also avert the Fed from having to print trillions more in the next few months. Citizens and businesses of all sizes could use the breathing space. Keeping obligations owed while everything is shut is what’s killing everyone.


And just how are people going to pay off a big debt that kept being deferred? Look for massive foreclosures if banks are told to stop mortgage collections for a year. Most people cannot handle a balloon payment. They are white unheard of anymore for that reason.

I deal with tax foreclosure. Those will increase as well. But I still need buyers for the properties. Your idea of putting everything on pause for God knows how long hurts everyone.


Not deferral - suspension. And this is not for a year - however more states are going to need to
employ social distancing soon - this thing is taking off worse than NY’s initial numbers now in GA, MS, TN and LA. If people do their part, aggressive measures need not take more than a month or two to flatten the curve.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:26 am

Jalap wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
The money from social security comes from the economy. No economy, no social security.


No. No economy, more debt for the country. Economy will revive, debts will be payed.
Surely there'll be a cost, probably higher taxes. I'll gladly pay those.


Payed? Unless you are drifting off into nautical issues, I'll take my financial advice from those who can spell correctly.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:29 am

Problems brewing in the South - on a confirmed case basis, four states are now ahead of NY’s figure per/million before they really took off a week ago.

A week ago, New York state had 87 detected coronavirus cases per 1m citizens

Here's where a lot of Southern states are *today*... the number of *detected* cases.

LA: 298 per 1m
MS: 107 per 1m
TN: 98 per 1m
GA: 98 per 1m


https://twitter.com/natesilver538/statu ... 57409?s=21
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:34 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Jalap wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
And Germany is 0.4%!! yes 0.4% in Germany.

This is all over the place, whilst in the US its presently 1.3%
So that's the data coming out.

Sorry, but aren't you a little bit in denial?
Even if you have Germany's excellent health care available all over the US, you're still facing hundreds of thousands of premature deaths. If you don't take action like so many other countries do.
Is the Holy Economy worth that?


No denial.
If we are to think this virus is going to kill millions, let us at least base ourselves in real data not panic. Death rates for this virus is yet to be officially determined, and we are stopping everything in our lives and altering negatively our future.

All this panic has been based mostly on incomplete data, it seems that the overall percentage of those tested is not the same in all countries, therefore the death rate and the hospitalization rate is not accurate. We are all expecting things to get worse in the US, yet it isn't. Hospitals aren't flooded with sick people like in Italy, it can happen, but it hasn't. We don't know yet, but that's what everyone is expecting.


Sounds like you’re not really hearing what doctors are saying:

https://youtu.be/TH9skp5R9F4
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8350
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:37 am

scbriml wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
It’s unbelievable how many people still can’t grasp what a logarithmic scale is.


Here's a logarithmic chart. No problem - just a nice steady line. :banghead:

That is a shallow line probably because of lack of testing,

There is a huge backlog, so daily stats are not actually from previous day. Once testing gets into a daily cycle, we will know better.

Michigan has been a bit more aggressive with drive-thru testing, still numbers are artificially low. They are stopping drive-thru to reallocate medical staff and switching to self-swab.

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https://www.clickondetroit.com/health/2 ... e-reports/
All posts are just opinions.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 6057
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:40 am

We need better data and our unreliable data is leading to bad decisions.

Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.

Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.




Next, the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.

In Iceland, deCode Genetics is working with the government to perform widespread testing. In a sample of nearly 2,000 entirely asymptomatic people, researchers estimated disease prevalence of just over 1%. Iceland’s first case was reported on Feb. 28, weeks behind the U.S. It’s plausible that the proportion of the U.S. population that has been infected is double, triple or even 10 times as high as the estimates from Iceland. That also implies a dramatically lower fatality rate.




The best (albeit very weak) evidence in the U.S. comes from the National Basketball Association. Between March 11 and 19, a substantial number of NBA players and teams received testing. By March 19, 10 out of 450 rostered players were positive. Since not everyone was tested, that represents a lower bound on the prevalence of 2.2%. The NBA isn’t a representative population, and contact among players might have facilitated transmission. But if we extend that lower-bound assumption to cities with NBA teams (population 45 million), we get at least 990,000 infections in the U.S. The number of cases reported on March 19 in the U.S. was 13,677, more than 72-fold lower. These numbers imply a fatality rate from Covid-19 orders of magnitude smaller than it appears.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-cor ... _lead_pos5
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:41 am

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Jalap wrote:
Sorry, but aren't you a little bit in denial?
Even if you have Germany's excellent health care available all over the US, you're still facing hundreds of thousands of premature deaths. If you don't take action like so many other countries do.
Is the Holy Economy worth that?


No denial.
If we are to think this virus is going to kill millions, let us at least base ourselves in real data not panic. Death rates for this virus is yet to be officially determined, and we are stopping everything in our lives and altering negatively our future.

All this panic has been based mostly on incomplete data, it seems that the overall percentage of those tested is not the same in all countries, therefore the death rate and the hospitalization rate is not accurate. We are all expecting things to get worse in the US, yet it isn't. Hospitals aren't flooded with sick people like in Italy, it can happen, but it hasn't. We don't know yet, but that's what everyone is expecting.


Sounds like you’re not really hearing what doctors are saying:

https://youtu.be/TH9skp5R9F4


Can't see the video in its entirety so I don't know what point you are trying to make.

In any case you haven't argued against the statistics I compiled regarding death rate. It may seem to me that the huge number of under reported cases of people with the infection currently and the number of dead with the infection can very well bring this number bellow the 1.0%. Who knows perhaps as close to Germany's 0.4%.

So we might be dealing with a death rate bellow 0.4% here, and we are close to taking this world to a depression based on panic for a virus that kills less than 0.4% of those who get it.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
Jalap
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:25 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:43 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
No denial.
If we are to think this virus is going to kill millions, let us at least base ourselves in real data not panic. Death rates for this virus is yet to be officially determined, and we are stopping everything in our lives and altering negatively our future.

All this panic has been based mostly on incomplete data, it seems that the overall percentage of those tested is not the same in all countries, therefore the death rate and the hospitalization rate is not accurate. We are all expecting things to get worse in the US, yet it isn't. Hospitals aren't flooded with sick people like in Italy, it can happen, but it hasn't. We don't know yet, but that's what everyone is expecting.

I understand your reasoning. It's very similar to mine a week or two ago. I also found the measures taken by the government to be excessive.
But numbers increased daily, exponentially.
Today it's very clear that our way of life 2 weeks ago (wash hands!) was simply not sustainable. If you're not prepared to surrender something like 1% of the population.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:45 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
We need better data and our unreliable data is leading to bad decisions.

Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.

Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.




Next, the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.

In Iceland, deCode Genetics is working with the government to perform widespread testing. In a sample of nearly 2,000 entirely asymptomatic people, researchers estimated disease prevalence of just over 1%. Iceland’s first case was reported on Feb. 28, weeks behind the U.S. It’s plausible that the proportion of the U.S. population that has been infected is double, triple or even 10 times as high as the estimates from Iceland. That also implies a dramatically lower fatality rate.




The best (albeit very weak) evidence in the U.S. comes from the National Basketball Association. Between March 11 and 19, a substantial number of NBA players and teams received testing. By March 19, 10 out of 450 rostered players were positive. Since not everyone was tested, that represents a lower bound on the prevalence of 2.2%. The NBA isn’t a representative population, and contact among players might have facilitated transmission. But if we extend that lower-bound assumption to cities with NBA teams (population 45 million), we get at least 990,000 infections in the U.S. The number of cases reported on March 19 in the U.S. was 13,677, more than 72-fold lower. These numbers imply a fatality rate from Covid-19 orders of magnitude smaller than it appears.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-cor ... _lead_pos5


You see, exactly where I was getting to.

This is a very damming analysis. What exactly is going on in the world? why haven't we asked these questions? we are f....ing panicking here and bringing this world to a great depression based on incomplete and flawed data.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
Jalap
Posts: 640
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:49 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
So we might be dealing with a death rate bellow 0.4% here, and we are close to taking this world to a depression based on panic for a virus that kills less than 0.4% of those who get it.

Have you calculated what 0,4% premature deaths are in absolute numbers for the US?
It's over 300 9/11's...
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 12323
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:49 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

No denial.
If we are to think this virus is going to kill millions, let us at least base ourselves in real data not panic. Death rates for this virus is yet to be officially determined, and we are stopping everything in our lives and altering negatively our future.

All this panic has been based mostly on incomplete data, it seems that the overall percentage of those tested is not the same in all countries, therefore the death rate and the hospitalization rate is not accurate. We are all expecting things to get worse in the US, yet it isn't. Hospitals aren't flooded with sick people like in Italy, it can happen, but it hasn't. We don't know yet, but that's what everyone is expecting.


Sounds like you’re not really hearing what doctors are saying:

https://youtu.be/TH9skp5R9F4


Can't see the video in its entirety so I don't know what point you are trying to make.

In any case you haven't argued against the statistics I compiled regarding death rate. It may seem to me that the huge number of under reported cases of people with the infection currently and the number of dead with the infection can very well bring this number bellow the 1.0%. Who knows perhaps as close to Germany's 0.4%.

So we might be dealing with a death rate bellow 0.4% here, and we are close to taking this world to a depression based on panic for a virus that kills less than 0.4% of those who get it.


Your choice not to inform yourself on views from front-line doctors.

As for the statistics - there is no point arguing completely about that which is incomplete. That’s unscientific. And the view that death rates can be analyzed in a static (undynamic) sense is completely illogical from a medical POV - there are two prominent strains of COVID-19 currently, and mutations ate ongoing, as with any other RNA virus. This is a fluid and dynamic situation - no idea how
things look even a month from now.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... re-deadly/

The WSJ commentary was flawed because they did not take into account various strains and possible mutations. You cannot talk about this stuff from a ‘snapshot’ point of view - we are playing catch up.
Last edited by Aaron747 on Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:50 am

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Sounds like you’re not really hearing what doctors are saying:

https://youtu.be/TH9skp5R9F4


Can't see the video in its entirety so I don't know what point you are trying to make.

In any case you haven't argued against the statistics I compiled regarding death rate. It may seem to me that the huge number of under reported cases of people with the infection currently and the number of dead with the infection can very well bring this number bellow the 1.0%. Who knows perhaps as close to Germany's 0.4%.

So we might be dealing with a death rate bellow 0.4% here, and we are close to taking this world to a depression based on panic for a virus that kills less than 0.4% of those who get it.


Your choice not to inform yourself on views from front-line doctors.

As for the statistics - there is no point arguing completely about that which is incomplete. That’s unscientific. And the view that death rates can be analyzed in a static (undynamic) sense is completely illogical from a medical POV - there are two prominent strains of COVID-19 currently, and mutations ate ongoing, as with any other RNA virus. This is a fluid and dynamic situation - no idea how
things look even a month from now.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... re-deadly/


No idea but lets keep the economy closed in the meantime? every hour this economy is closed is costing billions, every day, every week.

We are winging here the future of generations to come based on flawed and incomplete data? come on!
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:53 am

Jalap wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
So we might be dealing with a death rate bellow 0.4% here, and we are close to taking this world to a depression based on panic for a virus that kills less than 0.4% of those who get it.

Have you calculated what 0,4% premature deaths are in absolute numbers for the US?
It's over 300 9/11's...


Please read post 3369. The analysis by professionals that say that the death rate can even be much lower than .01, perhaps even 0.06%. The death rate for the seasonal flu is 0.1%
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
Jalap
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:01 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Please read post 3369. The analysis by professionals that say that the death rate can even be much lower than .01, perhaps even 0.06%. The death rate for the seasonal flu is 0.1%

Yet you can't know for sure. Other estimations by professionals are far higher.
If you were the dictator of your country and need to make the call, would you take the risk? It could also be 2%. Roll the dice and time will tell?
 
Jalap
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:03 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Jalap wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
The money from social security comes from the economy. No economy, no social security.


No. No economy, more debt for the country. Economy will revive, debts will be payed.
Surely there'll be a cost, probably higher taxes. I'll gladly pay those.


Payed? Unless you are drifting off into nautical issues, I'll take my financial advice from those who can spell correctly.

I'm quite sure your spelling in my language is far worse.
Take your advice where you want. Or where they tell you what you want to hear. All the same to me.
 
kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:03 am

Jalap wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
A lot more socialist on this forum than I thought.
Print money and give it to me so I can do nothing for months a the time pretending world will freeze cause somebody said so.
Absolutely zero real life understanding of economy.
Those that can absolutely SHOULD work, those that can't or at high risk should be alienated and maybe and that's a MAYBE we can get back to a more or less similar life a year or two from now.
Unfortunately some of you are realizing that sometimes you have to chose what's best for most. F*** I have older people at risk that I'm trying to isolate as much as possible but I also have kids that need to have a future.
This is LIFE lads and gents. Glad you joined.


This WAS life for many. And will be for many many more.
This is a perfect time for people to estimate what the balance between lives lost vs economic damage is.
For the economy to keep spinning, what is an acceptible number of lives to pay? 1.000? 10.000? 100.000? 1.000.000? 10.000.000?

If you were to know now that keeping everybody at work and everything open leads to 1M otherwise premature deaths over the next 12 months, would you still make this argumentation?

Off course, we can't know how many lives would be lost. But, unlike climate change, with Corona we'll have our feedback VERY quickly.

You can make an argument using standard estimate of $5M per life. One million lives in US cost as much as 3 months of US economy running half steam.
You can make it even steeper by using estimate $50K per year of quality life; and saying many COVID deaths have less than 10 years to live anyway, and that tilt the balance even further.


Thing is, these estimates end up close calls - no clear cut answers. And lives is not the only thing at stake. There are complications for survivors, costs associated with those and those worsen with the lack of medical treatment. There are social costs - like worn-out doctors who may never mentally recover.
I am inclined to say - soften quarantine but reinforce barriers to infection spread. Make sure everyone can get 3 masks per day to wear while out of home - that is a good start!
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:19 am

kalvado wrote:
Jalap wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
A lot more socialist on this forum than I thought.
Print money and give it to me so I can do nothing for months a the time pretending world will freeze cause somebody said so.
Absolutely zero real life understanding of economy.
Those that can absolutely SHOULD work, those that can't or at high risk should be alienated and maybe and that's a MAYBE we can get back to a more or less similar life a year or two from now.
Unfortunately some of you are realizing that sometimes you have to chose what's best for most. F*** I have older people at risk that I'm trying to isolate as much as possible but I also have kids that need to have a future.
This is LIFE lads and gents. Glad you joined.


This WAS life for many. And will be for many many more.
This is a perfect time for people to estimate what the balance between lives lost vs economic damage is.
For the economy to keep spinning, what is an acceptible number of lives to pay? 1.000? 10.000? 100.000? 1.000.000? 10.000.000?

If you were to know now that keeping everybody at work and everything open leads to 1M otherwise premature deaths over the next 12 months, would you still make this argumentation?

Off course, we can't know how many lives would be lost. But, unlike climate change, with Corona we'll have our feedback VERY quickly.

You can make an argument using standard estimate of $5M per life. One million lives in US cost as much as 3 months of US economy running half steam.
You can make it even steeper by using estimate $50K per year of quality life; and saying many COVID deaths have less than 10 years to live anyway, and that tilt the balance even further


The above argument is logical from an actuarial viewpoint but is unacceptable to healthcare workers in our culture.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:40 am

Sooooo... On the subject of being overweight and obese and the virus...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... y-die.html

In the same article it's mentioned 2/3 of the population is overweight or obese in the UK... Which lines up to the proportion of patients with severe illness who are overweight/obese .

Lol. OK. I don't understand this interpretation of the data.
Last edited by Jouhou on Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:44 am

Jouhou wrote:
Sooooo... On the subject of being overweight and obese and the virus...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... y-die.html

In the same article it's mentioned 2/3 of the population is overweight or obese in the UK... Which lines up to the proportion of overweight/obese patients with severe illness.

Lol. OK. I don't understand this interpretation of the data.


Will be interesting to see a patient breakdown out of NYC - large numbers being seen under 50 there.

This interview with @ScottGottliebMD is chilling. 56% of hospitalized patients in NYC are *under the age of 50*. And countless in ICUs who are in 30s, 40s, and 50s.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1 ... 54118?s=21
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:48 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Sooooo... On the subject of being overweight and obese and the virus...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... y-die.html

In the same article it's mentioned 2/3 of the population is overweight or obese in the UK... Which lines up to the proportion of overweight/obese patients with severe illness.

Lol. OK. I don't understand this interpretation of the data.


Will be interesting to see a patient breakdown out of NYC - large numbers being seen under 50 there.

This interview with @ScottGottliebMD is chilling. 56% of hospitalized patients in NYC are *under the age of 50*. And countless in ICUs who are in 30s, 40s, and 50s.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1 ... 54118?s=21


I reworded what I wrote to reflect what was weird about the article. If it's found that 63% of obese patients develop severe illness, now that's a different story.
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emperortk
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:49 am

PPVRA wrote:
emperortk wrote:
Despite our head start we will soon likely have the largest number of cases and deaths too if we allow economists to dictate policy in the midst of a public health crisis.


I just shared an opinion piece from a public health expert calling for an end to the restrictions, calling for a move to the next phase. Just a few posts prior to yours.

And don’t forget, there’s no health system without an economy. We’re just hunters and gatherers otherwise.


Fair enough. And I appreciate the different perspectives from the opinion piece and the other article you linked. The middle ground we are treading right now is the worst of all possible solutions IMHO.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:54 am

emperortk wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
emperortk wrote:
Despite our head start we will soon likely have the largest number of cases and deaths too if we allow economists to dictate policy in the midst of a public health crisis.


I just shared an opinion piece from a public health expert calling for an end to the restrictions, calling for a move to the next phase. Just a few posts prior to yours.

And don’t forget, there’s no health system without an economy. We’re just hunters and gatherers otherwise.


Fair enough. And I appreciate the different perspectives from the opinion piece and the other article you linked. The middle ground we are treading right now is the worst of all possible solutions IMHO.



In the US most manufacturing has been deemed essential and these shutdowns are hurting production of manufactured goods but businesses that make essential goods are adding staff...

This is the backbone of a functional economy, just without the extra weight. Yeah, a lot of people are losing out in this scenario but at the same time the production of basic essential goods has not stopped. And will not stop.
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Aesma
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:10 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Jalap wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
So we might be dealing with a death rate bellow 0.4% here, and we are close to taking this world to a depression based on panic for a virus that kills less than 0.4% of those who get it.

Have you calculated what 0,4% premature deaths are in absolute numbers for the US?
It's over 300 9/11's...


Please read post 3369. The analysis by professionals that say that the death rate can even be much lower than .01, perhaps even 0.06%. The death rate for the seasonal flu is 0.1%

.
Is it usual for the seasonal flu to overwhelm hospitals and ICUs ? I think it happens in the UK, but I had never heard of it in Italy, Spain, or France. China, I don't know.

NYC hospitals are overwhelmed, is that usual ?
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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par13del
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:25 am

Jalap wrote:
As long as nobody is allowed to travel into Brewter County, your argumentation makes sense.
If not, cases will pop up in Brewster County.
And if travel then still isn't forbidden, the virus will migrate back to places that are/were in lockdown.

So if Brewster County doesn't play ball, all others' efforts are in vain.

Which is the point most are not looking at, if you lock down for 14 days and have no infections, what do you do next?
 
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par13del
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:35 am

The virus needs a cure and or a vaccine, the USA relaxed some testing restrictions to speed development time, has any other country done the same? A lot of time and effort is being spent on containment, hopefully similar resources are being invested in actual studies of the virus and its responses to various agents, the future of the world cannot be lock down as eventually the logistics behind keeping people in lock down and treatment center will fail even if not overwhelmed.

Just as pax airlines quickly spread the virus throughout the world, cargo and non-pax transportation infrastructure can and will do the same, they are not automated.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:43 am

Keep in mind China has officially tested all kinds of things, and probably unofficially even more (on Muslims, or prisoners...) and has not found anything. China has plenty of incentives to find a treatment, because it's economy is export driven.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
KFTG
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:43 am

"I know more about the virus than the doctors do. Believe me."
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:08 am

Blistering commentary here from conservative Wisconsin commentator Charlie Sykes:

So maybe Trump decides to call it off the shutdown, or dramatically dial it back in week or so. That decision could leave us with the worst of both worlds: a devastated economy and a pandemic disaster.

It would also leave the country more divided than ever, a red and blue nation with radically different attitudes, lifestyles, and death rates....

...Again: The question is not whether or not to revive the economy. It’s when to do it? And how?

Here is a serious question: How do we think Trump will try to do it? Carefully? Or impulsively? Please recall that this entire debate was set off by a tweet sent in ALL CAPS by the president of the United States just before midnight.

Do you think it will be done with wisdom, or cynicism? Do you think it will be done in such a manner as to unite the country, or further divide it?

And do you think it will be done in concert with, or defiance of, medical experts such as Dr. Anthony Fauci?


https://thebulwark.com/trumps-next-pivo ... than-ever/

This is the biggest challenge we face - left to our own devices going forward without a clear plan or leadership - as things potentially get even worse.

Fortunately Congress seems to have found its serious shoes again, with the latest version of the aid package covering everyone’s salaries for four months.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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par13del
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:27 am

Aesma wrote:
Keep in mind China has officially tested all kinds of things, and probably unofficially even more (on Muslims, or prisoners...) and has not found anything. China has plenty of incentives to find a treatment, because it's economy is export driven.

China is also very good at mass producing items invented and designed elsewhere, another fact also overlooked is how soon their export market will be restored, the fact that the virus originated in China will resonate with many for a long time. As the old saying goes, Rome was not built in a day, but....
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:31 am

Jouhou wrote:
emperortk wrote:
PPVRA wrote:

I just shared an opinion piece from a public health expert calling for an end to the restrictions, calling for a move to the next phase. Just a few posts prior to yours.

And don’t forget, there’s no health system without an economy. We’re just hunters and gatherers otherwise.


Fair enough. And I appreciate the different perspectives from the opinion piece and the other article you linked. The middle ground we are treading right now is the worst of all possible solutions IMHO.



In the US most manufacturing has been deemed essential and these shutdowns are hurting production of manufactured goods but businesses that make essential goods are adding staff...

This is the backbone of a functional economy, just without the extra weight. Yeah, a lot of people are losing out in this scenario but at the same time the production of basic essential goods has not stopped. And will not stop.


I disagree with some points made in the above quoted posts.

I think that you are underestimating the human factor in the equation.
A good friend of mine is an ER doctor. He has a beautiful family and drives around in a Porsche, at some point he was head of the ER.
I think that he's someone passionate and would keep helping where he can.
However, even an ER doctor who's seen it all, if put in front of an overwhelming situation where he needs to treat his own coworkers who are getting infected right and left, on top of hallways full of very sick people lying on the floors, neighbors knocking on his door asking to take a look at their sick nana, all of it because of policy failures that he doesn't agree with, and then has family at home and a bank account full of money, at some point he's going to put himself and his family first, like everyone else.
If you reopen businesses and infections shoot up locally, you can expect doctors and nurses to call in sick even if they aren't.

So remember that medical workers are human beings too, and if there are no longer doctors and nurses in the face of increasing numbers of patients, there will be hunters, gatherers, sick people, anarchy and no economy whatsoever. Good luck trying to come back from that.


One question I would like to ask Trump: Would an earlier warning from China have made a difference if despite the late warning he is still not taking all possible steps to contain it? For instance, commercial aviation is a federal issue, what's he doing to stop the virus from spreading from NYC to the rest of the country with every departing flight?
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:58 am

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Sounds like you’re not really hearing what doctors are saying:

https://youtu.be/TH9skp5R9F4


Can't see the video in its entirety so I don't know what point you are trying to make.

In any case you haven't argued against the statistics I compiled regarding death rate. It may seem to me that the huge number of under reported cases of people with the infection currently and the number of dead with the infection can very well bring this number bellow the 1.0%. Who knows perhaps as close to Germany's 0.4%.

So we might be dealing with a death rate bellow 0.4% here, and we are close to taking this world to a depression based on panic for a virus that kills less than 0.4% of those who get it.


Your choice not to inform yourself on views from front-line doctors.

As for the statistics - there is no point arguing completely about that which is incomplete. That’s unscientific. And the view that death rates can be analyzed in a static (undynamic) sense is completely illogical from a medical POV - there are two prominent strains of COVID-19 currently, and mutations ate ongoing, as with any other RNA virus. This is a fluid and dynamic situation - no idea how
things look even a month from now.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... re-deadly/

The WSJ commentary was flawed because they did not take into account various strains and possible mutations. You cannot talk about this stuff from a ‘snapshot’ point of view - we are playing catch up.


So then how can you possibly say that a month of everyone on lockdown will knock this out? You are sending all sorts of mixed messages.

One thing is for sure. Fear will cause a worldwide depression and many are going to die from violence, suicide, malnourishment, and illnesses that we can treat but won't have the resources anymore.

Is that what you want?
 
mark787
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:07 am

I want to echo what my 4 family members who are ER doctors are telling me, (3 in NY). The number of positive cases does not reflect the number of people that require hospitalization or the ones that recover at home. These numbers are suppose to be high, and suppose to increase substantially due to the high rate of spread that the COVID-19 has. Also as I mentioned in previous posts, is the fact that graphs seem to peg the outbreak in the US at mid Feb without taking into consideration that an unknown virus had caused an uptick at some US Hospitals and doctor offices with flu like symptoms that tested negative for the flu as early as mid January. Again, some like myself are under the impression that the virus was already in the US by then, and NY in specific was a ticking time bomb with such close proximities with each other, that the virus would spread 10 times faster than anywhere else in the US. Be aware that our local leaders like Mayor DiBlasio was at one point riding the subway stating that we could not get the virus by riding the subway. well that was obviously false, and with so many people riding the subway, this virus morphed into what it is today.

There in fact is no real solid data as the one factor, (people not being tested), cannot be counted nor can it be estimated anywhere in the world. Like wise, China's reported numbers can not be taken too seriously by simple fact that any Government that tries to suppress the facts when the virus started to spread in large numbers can't be trusted. It is probably more of the reason why many are scared because it is what we DON"T know that happened in China, and what we DO see in Italy that is worrisome. Likewise, the lack of testing in the US also does nothing for the data, I can already tell you by experience, doctors are now NOT testing people who show mild symptoms. I went yesterday to my doctor because I had a cough that was progressively getting worse. he checked me, but sent me home telling me to take certain OTC meds and monitor myself for the next 48hrs. No test for the COVID-19, so I honestly don't know if I have it or not. I don't see anything wrong in testing people, so I don't think that this would be the best course for anyone to take. But with that in mind, all of us are putting too much into everything we see and hear as being the "official" data when this entire pandemic is really an evolving disease that will strike differently in different places, and many countries will try to do different things to combat the disease. Also, another thing that was mentioned by my family members was that Azithromycin has been actively used by some doctors worldwide that have had very good results, and was now approved to be used in NY under certain circumstances. The FDA I believe has not yet given the seal of approval, but it will be very soon. I can't sit here and say that it is wise to reopen everything so soon, (certainly not by Easter), but I too feel that everyone eventually will reopen at some point, well before July or August. No country in the world will be able to sustain itself for that long under a full stoppage. There is no real pause button without very serious consequences to our future and economical future. Every country will be forced to follow that route sooner than later.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:45 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Can't see the video in its entirety so I don't know what point you are trying to make.

In any case you haven't argued against the statistics I compiled regarding death rate. It may seem to me that the huge number of under reported cases of people with the infection currently and the number of dead with the infection can very well bring this number bellow the 1.0%. Who knows perhaps as close to Germany's 0.4%.

So we might be dealing with a death rate bellow 0.4% here, and we are close to taking this world to a depression based on panic for a virus that kills less than 0.4% of those who get it.


Your choice not to inform yourself on views from front-line doctors.

As for the statistics - there is no point arguing completely about that which is incomplete. That’s unscientific. And the view that death rates can be analyzed in a static (undynamic) sense is completely illogical from a medical POV - there are two prominent strains of COVID-19 currently, and mutations ate ongoing, as with any other RNA virus. This is a fluid and dynamic situation - no idea how
things look even a month from now.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... re-deadly/

The WSJ commentary was flawed because they did not take into account various strains and possible mutations. You cannot talk about this stuff from a ‘snapshot’ point of view - we are playing catch up.


So then how can you possibly say that a month of everyone on lockdown will knock this out? You are sending all sorts of mixed messages.

One thing is for sure. Fear will cause a worldwide depression and many are going to die from violence, suicide, malnourishment, and illnesses that we can treat but won't have the resources anymore.

Is that what you want?



I think a month lockdown is more intended to keep cases in check so hospitals can feasibly handle the load while we collectively get our shit together. We need ventilators, PPE, and test supplies being churned out before we can hit the unpause button. Test kits to finally test mild cases to actually isolate those who need to be, n95s for medical staff, ventilators for the sick. We also realistically need some sort of face mask, even cloth if that's all that's available, for workers to capture droplets and minimize spread.
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tommy1808
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:59 am

Jouhou wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Your choice not to inform yourself on views from front-line doctors.

As for the statistics - there is no point arguing completely about that which is incomplete. That’s unscientific. And the view that death rates can be analyzed in a static (undynamic) sense is completely illogical from a medical POV - there are two prominent strains of COVID-19 currently, and mutations ate ongoing, as with any other RNA virus. This is a fluid and dynamic situation - no idea how
things look even a month from now.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... re-deadly/

The WSJ commentary was flawed because they did not take into account various strains and possible mutations. You cannot talk about this stuff from a ‘snapshot’ point of view - we are playing catch up.


So then how can you possibly say that a month of everyone on lockdown will knock this out? You are sending all sorts of mixed messages.

One thing is for sure. Fear will cause a worldwide depression and many are going to die from violence, suicide, malnourishment, and illnesses that we can treat but won't have the resources anymore.

Is that what you want?



I think a month lockdown is more intended to keep cases in check so hospitals can feasibly handle the load while we collectively get our shit together. We need ventilators, PPE, and test supplies being churned out before we can hit the unpause button. Test kits to finally test mild cases to actually isolate those who need to be, n95s for medical staff, ventilators for the sick. We also realistically need some sort of face mask, even cloth if that's all that's available, for workers to capture droplets and minimize spread.


If life should go on as before for the most part you probably need enough testing capacity to at least check the workforce every week or so, probably doable, and keep doing that until there is an effective vaccine.
With proper scale effects this should not amount to more than a few hundred USD/Person/year.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:30 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

So then how can you possibly say that a month of everyone on lockdown will knock this out? You are sending all sorts of mixed messages.

One thing is for sure. Fear will cause a worldwide depression and many are going to die from violence, suicide, malnourishment, and illnesses that we can treat but won't have the resources anymore.

Is that what you want?



I think a month lockdown is more intended to keep cases in check so hospitals can feasibly handle the load while we collectively get our shit together. We need ventilators, PPE, and test supplies being churned out before we can hit the unpause button. Test kits to finally test mild cases to actually isolate those who need to be, n95s for medical staff, ventilators for the sick. We also realistically need some sort of face mask, even cloth if that's all that's available, for workers to capture droplets and minimize spread.


If life should go on as before for the most part you probably need enough testing capacity to at least check the workforce every week or so, probably doable, and keep doing that until there is an effective vaccine.
With proper scale effects this should not amount to more than a few hundred USD/Person/year.

best regards
Thomas


Or check a person at first sign of respiratory illness, and then test everyone around them if they're positive. Much more cost effective and practical.
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BN747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:56 am

With all these semi-curfew ordinances zipping about..I want to know whether or not food & related items are continuing to be processed, packaged & distributed to warehouses or storage facilities while the economy is on hold.

If we must wait it out, we wait it out.

But if this will be for a month or two. The bread line had better be at the ready from day or ay two..if not, inflation will rocket towards Jupiter if the distribution networks are not closely monitoring the situation (or whatever restraints if any are set upon them) or have a jump-start plan to keep prices decent and supplies in abundance.

If all those ppl are home now like most of us..there will be hell to pay with widespread shortages, checked gouging ..sheer chaos.

I mean those who hold the grub when shortages are about...is King.

Now that I think about, it all must be currently maintained because drive thru joints and restaurants MUST be getting supplies shipped as we yak.

So I think all should be okay..but since this is a first time experience of this kind for the planet..some unforeseen events lie ahead. We will not come of this as smoothly as we sunk into this.

Post Covid Forecast"

High Chance of FUBARs and calamity expected

BN747
"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
 
tommy1808
Posts: 13222
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:09 am

BN747 wrote:
With all these semi-curfew ordinances zipping about..I want to know whether or not food & related items are continuing to be processed, packaged & distributed to warehouses or storage facilities while the economy is on hold.


even in the worst hit cities in Italy grocery stores are stocked.
Its a part of the economy where it is either easy to distance, or hygienic standards are extremely high already.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
kalvado
Posts: 2841
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:35 am

Aaron747 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Jalap wrote:

This WAS life for many. And will be for many many more.
This is a perfect time for people to estimate what the balance between lives lost vs economic damage is.
For the economy to keep spinning, what is an acceptible number of lives to pay? 1.000? 10.000? 100.000? 1.000.000? 10.000.000?

If you were to know now that keeping everybody at work and everything open leads to 1M otherwise premature deaths over the next 12 months, would you still make this argumentation?

Off course, we can't know how many lives would be lost. But, unlike climate change, with Corona we'll have our feedback VERY quickly.

You can make an argument using standard estimate of $5M per life. One million lives in US cost as much as 3 months of US economy running half steam.
You can make it even steeper by using estimate $50K per year of quality life; and saying many COVID deaths have less than 10 years to live anyway, and that tilt the balance even further


The above argument is logical from an actuarial viewpoint but is unacceptable to healthcare workers in our culture.

50k a year or similar is used by insurance companies to justify treatment efficiency. And deny non-effective treatment. So the approach already in healthcare system.
 
JJJ
Posts: 3717
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:35 am

BN747 wrote:
With all these semi-curfew ordinances zipping about..I want to know whether or not food & related items are continuing to be processed, packaged & distributed to warehouses or storage facilities while the economy is on hold.


Agrifood, food processing, etc. keeps going. It's considered a key industry.

A lot of restaurants are relying on delivery to keep the lights on (in my little town a wannabe possible future michelin star chef has translated most of his menu for delivery and apparently isn't doing bad).

People will cope.

From the perspective of a country that's in the 2nd week of lockdown, supermarkets were raided on the days immediately before the order took place. 1st lockdown Monday was also pretty hectic (mostly by those who missed out on the earlier days) but from then onwards there's no shortage of anything.
 
BN747
Posts: 7898
Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2002 5:48 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:14 am

JJJ wrote:
BN747 wrote:
With all these semi-curfew ordinances zipping about..I want to know whether or not food & related items are continuing to be processed, packaged & distributed to warehouses or storage facilities while the economy is on hold.


Agrifood, food processing, etc. keeps going. It's considered a key industry.

A lot of restaurants are relying on delivery to keep the lights on (in my little town a wannabe possible future michelin star chef has translated most of his menu for delivery and apparently isn't doing bad).

People will cope.

From the perspective of a country that's in the 2nd week of lockdown, supermarkets were raided on the days immediately before the order took place. 1st lockdown Monday was also pretty hectic (mostly by those who missed out on the earlier days) but from then onwards there's no shortage of anything.



Thanks for that, I'm sure some had not thought of the Coronavirus aftermath and thought I'd toss it out there...someone who works near me (at a nearby hotel - still open btw) a few days ago that some of Ralph's stores had been gouging ppl for water purchases. So looking ahead..I wondered whether not there'd be a smooth transition.

Your reply is and will be reassuring to that question.

BN747
"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson

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