AirWorthy99 wrote:

I have to say, we are all shocked by this pandemic, but I think the world should at least be ready for the second wave which may be coming by the fall, if this one subsides. That one I think can be the most lethal, if unprepared. Hopefully by then the world would be ready and the health care system capacity increased.

I really don't believe we should again close up the world again in the fall for this.

Aaron747 wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

I have to say, we are all shocked by this pandemic, but I think the world should at least be ready for the second wave which may be coming by the fall, if this one subsides. That one I think can be the most lethal, if unprepared. Hopefully by then the world would be ready and the health care system capacity increased.

I really don't believe we should again close up the world again in the fall for this.

As long as leaders follow and support the science, the damage and inconveniences can be mitigated. We are seeing firsthand the cost of ignoring or thinking one ‘knows better’ than the experts.

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

I have to say, we are all shocked by this pandemic, but I think the world should at least be ready for the second wave which may be coming by the fall, if this one subsides. That one I think can be the most lethal, if unprepared. Hopefully by then the world would be ready and the health care system capacity increased.

I really don't believe we should again close up the world again in the fall for this.

As long as leaders follow and support the science, the damage and inconveniences can be mitigated. We are seeing firsthand the cost of ignoring or thinking one ‘knows better’ than the experts.

The main 'experts', namely the WHO, said in mid January that coronavirus can't be transmitted person to person. At that time since China did not allow foreign scientist to enter China and find out, the WHO was the main source of 'expert' input.

This virus caught everyone by surprise. If you can revise this same thread early on, I was one of the first to actually participate on it, and say that I was skeptical of this being equivalent to the flu, I was one of the few who doubted China's downplaying it. Our leaders in the western world were not ready and did not take it seriously, from Europe to America, everywhere. Right now is all good to speak with hindsight, Trump fucked up the message early on, but to be fair what could have been different? Italy? Europe.

Believe me I am not happy with Trump's management early on, but I am pretty sure any other person who would have been president wouldn't have prevented the current situation. This is unprecedented.

T4thH wrote:

Some good news from Germany. The spread of Coronavirus seems to slow down in Germany. So the high number of tests performed (and high number of early identified cases), the first measurements to slow it and of course, that many/most people were more careful, (like regular wash your hands, stay in some distance to others e.g.) seems to do the job, to slow it (not to solve it).
https://www.businessinsider.de/wissenschaft/coronavirus-infektionen-anstieg-verlangsamt-deutschland/

Still in comparison to the identified total number of cases low number of death (just as so many have been Coronavirus cases have been identified by the tests), compared to other countries....

It seems, the healthcare system in Germany will not break down as Germany has additional far the highest total number and number/100.000 of intensive care beds without and with ventilators in Europe and up to the highest in the world. It was in 2017: 28.000 (34/100.000) intensive care, of them 25.000 (28/100.000) with ventilators. All intensive care beds without have been now upgraded and many thousands new intensive care beds with ventilators have been assembled at hospitals (and 10.000 additional ventilators have been ordered at Dräger, to be delivered till end of this year). Additional emergency hospitals are now build in fair halls (as these are big and empty, as all fairs are cancelled) e.g., hospital staff has been re-trained for intensive care department e.g.
(For your information: US has also around 34 intensive care beds/100.000; UK has just only 6, Denmark has 6, Italy has 12 to 13, France 12, Spain 10....average in Europe is something around 13).
So Germany is well prepared now.

And to all in US; Europe has had the ski resort Ischgl in Austria and the ski resorts in northern Italy, from there the Coronavirus has spread through Europe, these were our superspreader locations in Europe with thousands coming back with Coronavirus. You will have now your Spring Break and the thousands with Coronavirus coming back.

Aaron747 wrote:

T4thH wrote:

Some good news from Germany. The spread of Coronavirus seems to slow down in Germany. So the high number of tests performed (and high number of early identified cases), the first measurements to slow it and of course, that many/most people were more careful, (like regular wash your hands, stay in some distance to others e.g.) seems to do the job, to slow it (not to solve it).
https://www.businessinsider.de/wissenschaft/coronavirus-infektionen-anstieg-verlangsamt-deutschland/

Still in comparison to the identified total number of cases low number of death (just as so many have been Coronavirus cases have been identified by the tests), compared to other countries....

It seems, the healthcare system in Germany will not break down as Germany has additional far the highest total number and number/100.000 of intensive care beds without and with ventilators in Europe and up to the highest in the world. It was in 2017: 28.000 (34/100.000) intensive care, of them 25.000 (28/100.000) with ventilators. All intensive care beds without have been now upgraded and many thousands new intensive care beds with ventilators have been assembled at hospitals (and 10.000 additional ventilators have been ordered at Dräger, to be delivered till end of this year). Additional emergency hospitals are now build in fair halls (as these are big and empty, as all fairs are cancelled) e.g., hospital staff has been re-trained for intensive care department e.g.
(For your information: US has also around 34 intensive care beds/100.000; UK has just only 6, Denmark has 6, Italy has 12 to 13, France 12, Spain 10....average in Europe is something around 13).
So Germany is well prepared now.

And to all in US; Europe has had the ski resort Ischgl in Austria and the ski resorts in northern Italy, from there the Coronavirus has spread through Europe, these were our superspreader locations in Europe with thousands coming back with Coronavirus. You will have now your Spring Break and the thousands with Coronavirus coming back.

Excellent news for Deutschland. Sobering comments about spring break

Aaron747 wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

As long as leaders follow and support the science, the damage and inconveniences can be mitigated. We are seeing firsthand the cost of ignoring or thinking one ‘knows better’ than the experts.

The main 'experts', namely the WHO, said in mid January that coronavirus can't be transmitted person to person. At that time since China did not allow foreign scientist to enter China and find out, the WHO was the main source of 'expert' input.

This virus caught everyone by surprise. If you can revise this same thread early on, I was one of the first to actually participate on it, and say that I was skeptical of this being equivalent to the flu, I was one of the few who doubted China's downplaying it. Our leaders in the western world were not ready and did not take it seriously, from Europe to America, everywhere. Right now is all good to speak with hindsight, Trump fucked up the message early on, but to be fair what could have been different? Italy? Europe.

Believe me I am not happy with Trump's management early on, but I am pretty sure any other person who would have been president wouldn't have prevented the current situation. This is unprecedented.

Trump's failure was massive, but it's not only about him, or the compromised WHO. We have incredible experts and there are organizations other than the WHO. The collective knowledge and know-how has been there, and prominent voices have been LOUD about the need for preparedness for over a decade. There is no excuse for not being ready other than ignorance and lack of political will. In a sense this is also a failure of society. This is what happens when we turn away from science as a society and prioritize other things instead. Science gave us success in Apollo, the semiconductor, the polio vaccine, GPS etc. This is a valuable lesson that our society should be on a train where the first car is populated by scientists and engineers, not evangelical leaders, reality TV, and keeping up with the Joneses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNhiHf84P9c

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI

We need to shame and eventually eliminate anti-science garbage like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ql73Hmbno40

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Dutch minister of health resigned after collapsing of fatigue during a hearing concerning Coronavirus in the chamber.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOYwGtSKIL4

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/d ... -collapse/

Tough times for politicians too.

Aesma wrote:

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Dutch minister of health resigned after collapsing of fatigue during a hearing concerning Coronavirus in the chamber.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOYwGtSKIL4

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/d ... -collapse/

Tough times for politicians too.

Resigning sends the wrong message though, of capitulation.

Jouhou wrote:

...

Wtf does Azithromycin, an antibiotic, have to do with anything?

...

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

The main 'experts', namely the WHO, said in mid January that coronavirus can't be transmitted person to person. At that time since China did not allow foreign scientist to enter China and find out, the WHO was the main source of 'expert' input.

This virus caught everyone by surprise. If you can revise this same thread early on, I was one of the first to actually participate on it, and say that I was skeptical of this being equivalent to the flu, I was one of the few who doubted China's downplaying it. Our leaders in the western world were not ready and did not take it seriously, from Europe to America, everywhere. Right now is all good to speak with hindsight, Trump fucked up the message early on, but to be fair what could have been different? Italy? Europe.

Believe me I am not happy with Trump's management early on, but I am pretty sure any other person who would have been president wouldn't have prevented the current situation. This is unprecedented.

Trump's failure was massive, but it's not only about him, or the compromised WHO. We have incredible experts and there are organizations other than the WHO. The collective knowledge and know-how has been there, and prominent voices have been LOUD about the need for preparedness for over a decade. There is no excuse for not being ready other than ignorance and lack of political will. In a sense this is also a failure of society. This is what happens when we turn away from science as a society and prioritize other things instead. Science gave us success in Apollo, the semiconductor, the polio vaccine, GPS etc. This is a valuable lesson that our society should be on a train where the first car is populated by scientists and engineers, not evangelical leaders, reality TV, and keeping up with the Joneses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNhiHf84P9c

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI

We need to shame and eventually eliminate anti-science garbage like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ql73Hmbno40

You got to give credit to Trump who has been following the advise of the experts at this very moment, so much so that I think he is putting too much seriousness that the economy might even collapse. I believe they should be working on a strategy moving forward after we end the 15 days, I am pretty sure the experts will tell him to extend it, but I really don't think we should collapse the economy farther with more time extending this, at the end don't know if keeping the economy closed would be worth it if in the long run the damage might be much severe than a few thousands dying.

Expanding hospital infrastructure, finding drugs and a vaccine should be the priority while the country moves on. We can't keep this situation going for months.

T4thH wrote:

And as just typed, correction by RKI: The numbers were just incomplete and some News-services were too fast. I had already waited for several hours, to verify, that it will not corrected and I will announce wrong news. I really hate this, I have really tried to avoid this.
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/coronavirus-verwirrung-um-fallzahlen-vom-robert-koch-institut-a-1d79a29e-a03a-444c-b2f6-bcbdb6c18bf3
Just completed typing and send, checked the news and....Just updated by RKI, no slow down.

I really will like to type now some not-nice words....

AirWorthy99 wrote:

The main 'experts', namely the WHO, said in mid January that coronavirus can't be transmitted person to person.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

If the US GDP falls by 20% (a common forecast), that’s $4 trillion, not to mention the human costs of lost employment, savings etc. The government uses $10 million as the value of a human life for policy making decisions, when tested in studies individuals value themselves at half that. We have to save 400,000 to 800,000 lives to make the numbers work. That’s save, not total deaths but deaths that don’t occur because of the quarantine measures.

Today the death total is 346.

emperortk wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

The main 'experts', namely the WHO, said in mid January that coronavirus can't be transmitted person to person.

Do you have a source for this, or are you just making it up? And by source, I mean some kind of public statement from WHO that says coronavirus can't be transmitted from person to person.

"Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China,"

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

If the US GDP falls by 20% (a common forecast), that’s $4 trillion, not to mention the human costs of lost employment, savings etc. The government uses $10 million as the value of a human life for policy making decisions, when tested in studies individuals value themselves at half that. We have to save 400,000 to 800,000 lives to make the numbers work. That’s save, not total deaths but deaths that don’t occur because of the quarantine measures.

Today the death total is 346.

Aaron747 wrote:

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

If the US GDP falls by 20% (a common forecast), that’s $4 trillion, not to mention the human costs of lost employment, savings etc. The government uses $10 million as the value of a human life for policy making decisions, when tested in studies individuals value themselves at half that. We have to save 400,000 to 800,000 lives to make the numbers work. That’s save, not total deaths but deaths that don’t occur because of the quarantine measures.

Today the death total is 346.

NIH and CDC say people over 50 are at highest risk. That puts 115 million Americans at risk, but for the sake of argument let’s say only half that number have no hypertension, smoking history, are not obese or other co-morbidities, so that’s roughly 58 million high-risk individuals. Is that enough to warrant the effort?

emperortk wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

The main 'experts', namely the WHO, said in mid January that coronavirus can't be transmitted person to person.

Do you have a source for this, or are you just making it up? And by source, I mean some kind of public statement from WHO that says coronavirus can't be transmitted from person to person.

edmountain wrote:

The clinical utility of azithromycin in this regard is illustrated by evidence based on randomized control trials that shows that azithromycin, when taken on a long-term basis, is effective in reducing frequency of exacerbations, hospitalizations, and duration of hospital stay in patients with COPD that is refractory despite optimal therapy. There is also evidence that azithromycin may have therapeutic effects in acute infections and even extra-pulmonary disease such as osteomyelitis. Again, for all of these uses the effect is believed to be due to immunomodulatory effects rather than antimicrobial activity. See for example the following:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanr ... 13-2600(14)70019-0/fulltext

https://www.dovepress.com/long-term-azi ... ticle-COPD

https://academic.oup.com/jac/article/55/1/10/777163

https://europepmc.org/article/med/11142932

It is conceivable therefore that there is a therapeutic role for azithromycin in treatment of coronavirus infections by virtue of its antiinflammatory effects rather than its antimicrobial activity; obviously evidence at this time is lacking.

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

If the US GDP falls by 20% (a common forecast), that’s $4 trillion, not to mention the human costs of lost employment, savings etc. The government uses $10 million as the value of a human life for policy making decisions, when tested in studies individuals value themselves at half that. We have to save 400,000 to 800,000 lives to make the numbers work. That’s save, not total deaths but deaths that don’t occur because of the quarantine measures.

Today the death total is 346.

NIH and CDC say people over 50 are at highest risk. That puts 115 million Americans at risk, but for the sake of argument let’s say only half that number have no hypertension, smoking history, are not obese or other co-morbidities, so that’s roughly 58 million high-risk individuals. Is that enough to warrant the effort?

I think is simpler to have 58 millions Americans stay home, don't move rather than keeping almost 300 million home. The most at risk should stay home that's it.

AirWorthy99 wrote:

emperortk wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

The main 'experts', namely the WHO, said in mid January that coronavirus can't be transmitted person to person.

Do you have a source for this, or are you just making it up? And by source, I mean some kind of public statement from WHO that says coronavirus can't be transmitted from person to person.

"Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China,"

https://www.foxnews.com/world/world-hea ... oronavirus

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

If the US GDP falls by 20% (a common forecast), that’s $4 trillion, not to mention the human costs of lost employment, savings etc. The government uses $10 million as the value of a human life for policy making decisions, when tested in studies individuals value themselves at half that. We have to save 400,000 to 800,000 lives to make the numbers work. That’s save, not total deaths but deaths that don’t occur because of the quarantine measures.

Today the death total is 346.

NIH and CDC say people over 50 are at highest risk. That puts 115 million Americans at risk, but for the sake of argument let’s say only half that number have no hypertension, smoking history, are not obese or other co-morbidities, so that’s roughly 58 million high-risk individuals. Is that enough to warrant the effort?

I think is simpler to have 58 millions Americans stay home, don't move rather than keeping almost 300 million home. The most at risk should stay home that's it.

Derico wrote:

So it's time to admit it: Western people (as opposed to Asians), it appears are just not culturally capable of self-restraint in the same manner that made the lockdowns work in Asia. At least Southern Europeans are not. Jury still out on northerners I guess. I simply don't comprehend how is it hard not to see that 21 days of strict quarantine are far better than 100 days of a mushy mess.

Aesma wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

NIH and CDC say people over 50 are at highest risk. That puts 115 million Americans at risk, but for the sake of argument let’s say only half that number have no hypertension, smoking history, are not obese or other co-morbidities, so that’s roughly 58 million high-risk individuals. Is that enough to warrant the effort?

I think is simpler to have 58 millions Americans stay home, don't move rather than keeping almost 300 million home. The most at risk should stay home that's it.

It's possible we'll do that in about a month. Things have to be organized till then so that these people's needs can be met, and if they have a job a way for them to work from home, or to safeguard their job in some other way.

mham001 wrote:

Derico wrote:

So it's time to admit it: Western people (as opposed to Asians), it appears are just not culturally capable of self-restraint in the same manner that made the lockdowns work in Asia. At least Southern Europeans are not. Jury still out on northerners I guess. I simply don't comprehend how is it hard not to see that 21 days of strict quarantine are far better than 100 days of a mushy mess.

Japanese have been shown to ignore the dangers also. The countries that have squashed it have used heavy surveillance, strict border controls and force to keep their people in line. North Korea, Singapore, China, more authoritarian.

mham001 wrote:

I find it hard to believe that Germany does not know how many tests are administered daily.

That and the disproportionate amount of deaths per infection in Germany raises some questions about reporting.

Aaron747 wrote:

mham001 wrote:

Derico wrote:

So it's time to admit it: Western people (as opposed to Asians), it appears are just not culturally capable of self-restraint in the same manner that made the lockdowns work in Asia. At least Southern Europeans are not. Jury still out on northerners I guess. I simply don't comprehend how is it hard not to see that 21 days of strict quarantine are far better than 100 days of a mushy mess.

Japanese have been shown to ignore the dangers also. The countries that have squashed it have used heavy surveillance, strict border controls and force to keep their people in line. North Korea, Singapore, China, more authoritarian.

Agree with this - when Singapore and China put orders in place, citizens had to oblige. Everything in Japan has been a 'request' by the government - schools were not ordered to close, they were asked to. Japanese authority is painfully soft because of the cultural importance of avoiding conflict, and in polls close to 40% of the population doesn't trust the government anyway.

mham001 wrote:

Derico wrote:

So it's time to admit it: Western people (as opposed to Asians), it appears are just not culturally capable of self-restraint in the same manner that made the lockdowns work in Asia. At least Southern Europeans are not. Jury still out on northerners I guess. I simply don't comprehend how is it hard not to see that 21 days of strict quarantine are far better than 100 days of a mushy mess.

Japanese have been shown to ignore the dangers also. The countries that have squashed it have used heavy surveillance, strict border controls and force to keep their people in line. North Korea, Singapore, China, more authoritarian.

scbriml wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

emperortk wrote:

Do you have a source for this, or are you just making it up? And by source, I mean some kind of public statement from WHO that says coronavirus can't be transmitted from person to person.

"Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China,"

https://www.foxnews.com/world/world-hea ... oronavirus

The WHO reporting something that China said is actually very different from the WHO saying it.

I thought you we're smart enough to know the difference.

scbriml wrote:

The WHO reporting something that China said is actually very different from the WHO saying it.

I thought you we're smart enough to know the difference.

Aaron747 wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

NIH and CDC say people over 50 are at highest risk. That puts 115 million Americans at risk, but for the sake of argument let’s say only half that number have no hypertension, smoking history, are not obese or other co-morbidities, so that’s roughly 58 million high-risk individuals. Is that enough to warrant the effort?

I think is simpler to have 58 millions Americans stay home, don't move rather than keeping almost 300 million home. The most at risk should stay home that's it.

What is your scientific reasoning for that proposal? Epidemiologists say flattening the curve is a race against time - and their view is backed up by exponential math. If the scientifically prudent thing to do were keeping only the most at-risk at home, that's what they would recommend. I think you're forgetting that containment already failed - that's why we're here.

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

I think is simpler to have 58 millions Americans stay home, don't move rather than keeping almost 300 million home. The most at risk should stay home that's it.

What is your scientific reasoning for that proposal? Epidemiologists say flattening the curve is a race against time - and their view is backed up by exponential math. If the scientifically prudent thing to do were keeping only the most at-risk at home, that's what they would recommend. I think you're forgetting that containment already failed - that's why we're here.

Not scientific, we are less than 400 deaths thus far, our hospitals are not overcrowded (yet), though these things can happen, I rather believe that by the end of the 14 days we can be prepared to gradually open the country back again.

Epidemiologists aren't economists, yes they will do their best to protect us, thankfully, but I doubt they have much knowledge in economy to understand the other impact from this virus. The economic one.

I think they will tell us to keep hunkering down farther than 14 days, in fact even more than 30 days, but like I said, are we prepared for the long term economic impact?

KFTG wrote:

It can just as easily mutate into something LESS lethal...

mham001 wrote:

T4thH wrote:

And as just typed, correction by RKI: The numbers were just incomplete and some News-services were too fast. I had already waited for several hours, to verify, that it will not corrected and I will announce wrong news. I really hate this, I have really tried to avoid this.
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/coronavirus-verwirrung-um-fallzahlen-vom-robert-koch-institut-a-1d79a29e-a03a-444c-b2f6-bcbdb6c18bf3
Just completed typing and send, checked the news and....Just updated by RKI, no slow down.

I really will like to type now some not-nice words....

Never use Business Insider for serious information, it is a fluffy German/EU propaganda mouthpiece. Der Spiegal is proven to be not much better. I have wondered - I read that Germany has no way of knowing how many are being tested due to a "decentralized system" or some such. This is why Germany does not appear in any of those charts. That and the disproportionate amount of deaths per infection in Germany raises some questions about reporting. I find it hard to believe that Germany does not know how many tests are administered daily.

theaviator380 wrote:

Hello Folks, hope everyone is safe and sound.

Don't shoot 'ME' for this info as I saw this circulating online so I am just sharing to see your views on it.

So no idea if it's a fake news or factual but worth looking?

_____

Why "Social Distancing" is the most important precaution in the fight against Corona. Live example from last month's history.

As we can see from the uploaded image, it is a news snippet from 4th Feb.
In early Feb, while China was reeling under pressure due to Corona virus, Italy was totally safe, and had less than 5 confirmed cases. But despite such low numbers, Italians automatically started taking precautions. Since Italy has a few leather factories which are dominated by Chinese immigrants, and as most of them had recently been to their hometowns for vacations and were returning to work in January 2020 (in Italian factories), the locals in Italy started exercising caution, by avoiding any direct interaction with those Chinese. In fact, that's basic human tendency, to avoid interaction with anyone coming from virus affected regions. So, the Italians naturally started avoiding interactions with Chinese, especially those who had recently landed at Italy. This apparently didn't go down well with certain activists who felt it is a form of "discrimination" against Chinese.

During such heightened times, instead of testing those Chinese workers for the virus, the Mayor of Florence (Italy) came up with an initiative in which he appealed to all the Italians to show their love towards Chinese, by hugging them. It was titled "Hug a Chinese", and was organized/supported by several NGOs as well, and hailed by various leaders for "political correctness". Their logic was that human is bigger than virus, and hence a mere virus cannot create a barrier between Italians & Chinese.

Over the next few days, there was a sort of "celebration" throughout Italy, where everyone walking down the streets were hugging every other Chinese immigrant, to "show their love". Some even took it to the next level, in which they started hugging Chinese passengers in masks who had just landed at Italy, most of whom were probably already infected.

Few days later, Italy was gripped with Corona virus, and the number of cases which was in single digit till mid Feb, exploded to thousands within a week of the "Hug a Chinese" campaign.

One might say there is no use raking up these facts now, because the damage is already done. But the point here is that such incidents serve as crucial lessons for rest of the world, and it is a real example of how social distancing can be really effective. As we can see from this example, the Italians were initially cautious and hence hardly had any confirmed cases as long as they were cautious. But the moment their leader turned it into a mockery, everyone threw all caution out of the window and things just exploded after that.

This is something rest of the world can take notice. Social distancing is very important during an epedimic. There is no need to play any game of "political correctness" to appease anybody. Also, these events show why good leadership is important.

Links:

News snippet:
https://vdare.com/posts/mayor-of-floren ... -prejudice

"Hug a chinese" campaign by Mayor:
https://kprcradio.iheart.com/featured/t ... inese-day/

T4thH wrote:

There are alone 120 districts and I just do not know how many district free cities in Germany,

Aaron747 wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

What is your scientific reasoning for that proposal? Epidemiologists say flattening the curve is a race against time - and their view is backed up by exponential math. If the scientifically prudent thing to do were keeping only the most at-risk at home, that's what they would recommend. I think you're forgetting that containment already failed - that's why we're here.

Not scientific, we are less than 400 deaths thus far, our hospitals are not overcrowded (yet), though these things can happen, I rather believe that by the end of the 14 days we can be prepared to gradually open the country back again.

Epidemiologists aren't economists, yes they will do their best to protect us, thankfully, but I doubt they have much knowledge in economy to understand the other impact from this virus. The economic one.

I think they will tell us to keep hunkering down farther than 14 days, in fact even more than 30 days, but like I said, are we prepared for the long term economic impact?

Are you serious? Perhaps you don't know what's covered in a Master's of Public Health degree, but I assure you these people have enough knowledge of economics from courses on mitigation of economic effects and health policy administration. Many with an MPH have various degrees in their undergrad or serve in a non-health professional capacity. These are highly intelligent people - they can connect the dots and have no trouble with interdisciplinary concepts.

Here's an example paper just out today - you'll note they did not neglect to mention the economy.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 40-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext

tommy1808 wrote:

T4thH wrote:

There are alone 120 districts and I just do not know how many district free cities in Germany,

107 + 3 like-district free cities, 4 of which being states or part of Bremen (no districts, but two cities in the state).

Best regards
Thomas

AirWorthy99 wrote:

emperortk wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

The main 'experts', namely the WHO, said in mid January that coronavirus can't be transmitted person to person.

Do you have a source for this, or are you just making it up? And by source, I mean some kind of public statement from WHO that says coronavirus can't be transmitted from person to person.

"Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China,"

https://www.foxnews.com/world/world-hea ... oronavirus

T4thH wrote:

Some good news from Germany. The spread of Coronavirus seems to slow down in Germany. So the high number of tests performed (and high number of early identified cases), the first measurements to slow it and of course, that many/most people were more careful, (like regular wash your hands, stay in some distance to others e.g.) seems to do the job, to slow it (not to solve it).
https://www.businessinsider.de/wissenschaft/coronavirus-infektionen-anstieg-verlangsamt-deutschland/

Still in comparison to the identified total number of cases low number of death (just as so many have been Coronavirus cases have been identified by the tests), compared to other countries....

It seems, the healthcare system in Germany will not break down as Germany has additional far the highest total number and number/100.000 of intensive care beds without and with ventilators in Europe and up to the highest in the world. It was in 2017: 28.000 (34/100.000) intensive care, of them 25.000 (28/100.000) with ventilators. All intensive care beds without have been now upgraded and many thousands new intensive care beds with ventilators have been assembled at hospitals (and 10.000 additional ventilators have been ordered at Dräger, to be delivered till end of this year). Additional emergency hospitals are now build in fair halls (as these are big and empty, as all fairs are cancelled) e.g., hospital staff has been re-trained for intensive care department e.g.
(For your information: US has also around 34 intensive care beds/100.000; UK has just only 6, Denmark has 6, Italy has 12 to 13, France 12, Spain 10....average in Europe is something around 13).
So Germany is well prepared now.

And to all in US; Europe has had the ski resort Ischgl in Austria and the ski resorts in northern Italy, from there the Coronavirus has spread through Europe, these were our superspreader locations in Europe with thousands coming back with Coronavirus. You will have now your Spring Break and the thousands with Coronavirus coming back.

Giovanni Maga from CNR told Euronews that in Italy a person who tested positive while alive or post-mortem is counted as a coronavirus-death. "I don't know if Germany or France follow the same criteria," he noted.

Maga also stated that healthcare structures are rather similar in northern Italy, France and Germany, making it harder to justify such discrepancies in numbers.

He agreed with Wieler with regards to the time curve and the progression of the pandemic. "France and Germany are where Italy was at the beginning of the month. They are late in implementing measures and will get to a point where they will have a harsher level of contagion."

Aesma wrote:

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

If the US GDP falls by 20% (a common forecast), that’s $4 trillion, not to mention the human costs of lost employment, savings etc. The government uses $10 million as the value of a human life for policy making decisions, when tested in studies individuals value themselves at half that. We have to save 400,000 to 800,000 lives to make the numbers work. That’s save, not total deaths but deaths that don’t occur because of the quarantine measures.

Today the death total is 346.

I was waiting for this. Since it seems for some all that matters is money, well it turns out the value of someone is also in money, and it's a big number. So hurting the economy to save many people might be worth it after all.

mham001 wrote:

It all comes back to one place and one place only - CHINA. Why are you so hellbent on their absolution? Because...Trump?