DLFREEBIRD wrote:

how will that help since it lies dormant for a time. they will have to quarantine once they get back here. which kind of makes me believe that this Adm doesn't trust China to fly their staff out.

There's a standing department of state warning about China trapping our citizens in their country and denying them their exit in order to extort something from their families. I had a similar issue back in 2015 in China, but there was no standing warning at that point. I ended up having to call the embassy because they wouldn't let me leave the country.

So no, they absolutely don't trust leaving our citizens, especially government employees, trapped there. I'd worry about our citizens who get left behind when our department of state staff leave though.

Jouhou wrote:

DLFREEBIRD wrote:

how will that help since it lies dormant for a time. they will have to quarantine once they get back here. which kind of makes me believe that this Adm doesn't trust China to fly their staff out.

There's a standing department of state warning about China trapping our citizens in their country and denying them their exit in order to extort something from their families. I had a similar issue back in 2015 in China, but there was no standing warning at that point. I ended up having to call the embassy because they wouldn't let me leave the country.

So no, they absolutely don't trust leaving our citizens, especially government employees, trapped there. I'd worry about our citizens who get left behind when our department of state staff leave though.

i spent a month there for the Olympics with the airline i worked for, everything was so backwards, but i had hoped things had gotten better. I also went for the world cup, while backwards both times i saw shacks next to skyscrapers, and my lungs hurt both times, i never could get used to the pollution. I haven't gone back for that reason.. But my friend who lives over there say things have gotten a lot better, but probably not enough. they still sell bat soup.

DLFREEBIRD wrote:

Jouhou wrote:

DLFREEBIRD wrote:

how will that help since it lies dormant for a time. they will have to quarantine once they get back here. which kind of makes me believe that this Adm doesn't trust China to fly their staff out.

There's a standing department of state warning about China trapping our citizens in their country and denying them their exit in order to extort something from their families. I had a similar issue back in 2015 in China, but there was no standing warning at that point. I ended up having to call the embassy because they wouldn't let me leave the country.

So no, they absolutely don't trust leaving our citizens, especially government employees, trapped there. I'd worry about our citizens who get left behind when our department of state staff leave though.

i spent a month there for the Olympics with the airline i worked for, everything was so backwards, but i had hoped things had gotten better. I also went for the world cup, while backwards both times i saw shacks next to skyscrapers, and my lungs hurt both times, i never could get used to the pollution. I haven't gone back for that reason.. But my friend who lives over there say things have gotten a lot better, but probably not enough. they still sell bat soup.

I was a bit of a "canary in the coal mine" situation. When the 2015 OPM data breach happened no one knew what the information would be used for, it was thought it would just be used for identity theft. I quickly found out for myself it was used to target US government employees. My experience there was a bit different from non-government workers who had been to China. The officer at home who was supposed to brief me on potential dangers did not. When I called the embassy, upon telling them what my job at home was they told me to just do whatever they say, pay whatever bribes they ask for and just get out of the country immediately.

Basically I can never set foot there again now that I know what I know. Which is why I'm A-OK with sharing my opinion on the situation with Taiwan because the PRC is already on my list of places that will never be safe for me to travel to.

I get that, I was there at a time where they were trying to impress the world. My parents came over, while I was there and I put them on a cruise of china's leading ports, while I worked. Their ship was held up for a long time, I remember waiting at the dock for four hours, for them to release the passengers, my mom told me she thought the ship had to pay a bribe to dock. might not of, but why would it take them four hours to get their paperwork in order.

DLFREEBIRD wrote:

so California has reported 3rd case in US

Poorly written, but now 5 cases in US.
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/news.yahoo.c ... 51224.html

I wish for more accurate information from China, as anecdotal evidence from the videos from hospitals and the street do not match official numbers as too many people are turned away.

Lightsaber

Hong Kong Disneyland is closed, I have seen the story of my friend yesterday and it doesn't look like a theme park anymore.
I hope that they can find a cure ASAP.

lightsaber wrote:

DLFREEBIRD wrote:

so California has reported 3rd case in US

Poorly written, but now 5 cases in US.
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/news.yahoo.c ... 51224.html

I wish for more accurate information from China, as anecdotal evidence from the videos from hospitals and the street do not match official numbers as too many people are turned away.

Lightsaber

The portrayal of the situation in my eyes is that at this point, they aren't trying to hide the scope. There's chaos in the hospitals and clinics of Wuhan, a shortage of test kits, and the suspected infected people are having to wait 2 days for "confirmation". Others with symptoms are supposedly being turned away because there is simply no room for them. Everything I've seen is saying that especially in Wuhan, cases are being under reported due to their healthcare system being completely overwhelmed. Supposedly the PRC is now mobilizing their military medics and supplies into the city, so hopefully we stop seeing as many scenes of desperation and chaos coming out of the city.

Honestly, I'm not fond of the PRCs government but right now they've definitely let go of their iron grip on the flow of information. It makes me trust what I see a bit more and I think this is the PRC admitting they have a crisis on their hands. The government spin on this is along the lines of "We can defeat this if we all work hard to overcome it" while allowing people to see what is happening.

I do think Taiwan has a legitimate beef with being left out of WHO meetings though, when it comes to complaints of inadequate information.

Also, current official tally is 2762 confirmed cases in China, 5794 suspected, 80 deaths. It looks like the official numbers of SARS will be surpassed, although I'm starting to suspect we never came close to knowing the true scope of SARS.

Varsity1 wrote:

casinterest wrote:

So is it safe to bring back the US citizens immediately, or will they quarantine now that it is known this virus can spread without symptoms?

It would certainly be prudent to test them while they are all in one place, even without symptoms. I hope its a condition of carriage.

Maybe for a month

Thunderbolt500 wrote:

Varsity1 wrote:

casinterest wrote:

So is it safe to bring back the US citizens immediately, or will they quarantine now that it is known this virus can spread without symptoms?

It would certainly be prudent to test them while they are all in one place, even without symptoms. I hope its a condition of carriage.

Maybe for a month

I think the preference is that they isolate their selves at home, you keep a crowd together and one can infect the others. The longest incubation period observed is 14 days. 2 weeks is enough.

The federal employees can be put on admin leave and be paid to isolate their selves.

2,000 confirmed infections (more test kits, I believe still understated from anecdotal evidence from videos of hospital wait lines).

80 dead

5 cases in USA:
https://www.cnet.com/google-amp/news/co ... g-we-know/


A scary case in Colorado false alarm (something else caused pneumonia):
https://www.denverpost.com/2020/01/26/c ... sults/amp/

Jouhou wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

DLFREEBIRD wrote:

so California has reported 3rd case in US

Poorly written, but now 5 cases in US.
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/news.yahoo.c ... 51224.html

I wish for more accurate information from China, as anecdotal evidence from the videos from hospitals and the street do not match official numbers as too many people are turned away.

Lightsaber

The portrayal of the situation in my eyes is that at this point, they aren't trying to hide the scope. There's chaos in the hospitals and clinics of Wuhan, a shortage of test kits, and the suspected infected people are having to wait 2 days for "confirmation". Others with symptoms are supposedly being turned away because there is simply no room for them. Everything I've seen is saying that especially in Wuhan, cases are being under reported due to their healthcare system being completely overwhelmed. Supposedly the PRC is now mobilizing their military medics and supplies into the city, so hopefully we stop seeing as many scenes of desperation and chaos coming out of the city.

Honestly, I'm not fond of the PRCs government but right now they've definitely let go of their iron grip on the flow of information. It makes me trust what I see a bit more and I think this is the PRC admitting they have a crisis on their hands. The government spin on this is along the lines of "We can defeat this if we all work hard to overcome it" while allowing people to see what is happening.

I do think Taiwan has a legitimate beef with being left out of WHO meetings though, when it comes to complaints of inadequate information.

Also, current official tally is 2762 confirmed cases in China, 5794 suspected, 80 deaths. It looks like the official numbers of SARS will be surpassed, although I'm starting to suspect we never came close to knowing the true scope of SARS.

We can agree. It was odd little Hong Kong slmost had as many cases as China for SARS.

Under reporting is happening now for supply reasons. Before it was a strangely patriotic virus that infected only a small area of China and the spread out to other nations... hmmm... odd for a passenger rail hub...

But this doesn't have the death rate of SARS. It spreads faster, but this is like a really bad flu, not like SARS deadly (even though I believe a large under reporting of deaths as lack of kits prevents confirmation).

Note: I believe everything, within reason and normal bungling, is now being done for supplies, including test kits.

Unfortunately, a late start to containment, by about 3 weeks, dispersed hundreds of thousands of people the last few weeks.

If I ratio and just use the 300,000 train passenger number from before,:
5,000 suspected cases/11 million people * 300,000 people= 136 cases left Wuhan.

That number is probably low. It is almost certainly between the 200 to 1,000 infected people left Wuhan. With an Ro of 1.7 to 2.5 estimated (last I looked), that means between 540 and 3,500 cases exist outside Wuhan (I assume only one contagion period has elapsed).

Rail is mostly local, so the province quarantine will help contain the majority. But 10% to 20% of the cases are now outside the quarantine zone. So 54 to 700 cases by my estimate. Rhoo Rhoo.

It is possible one infected person traveling by rail might have done far more single handidly if the infected say a railroad customer relations worker, airline stewardesses, or Disneyland Shanghai worker prior to quarantine announcement.

Thankfully, this isn't measles or Mumps with their super high Ro (one person infects many).

Lightsaber

This link has a good map of reported cases:
https://apnews.com/6e3165077bc60bd14f2c2d031c2e6272

Unfortunately, very spread out and the Lunar new year travel is going to mix the disease incredibly well as on the return,

China extends Lunar new year advising people to stay home: Schools are closed until further notice (a wise precaution).

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/ch ... ar-BBZlHqq

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

Jouhou wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Poorly written, but now 5 cases in US.
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/news.yahoo.c ... 51224.html

I wish for more accurate information from China, as anecdotal evidence from the videos from hospitals and the street do not match official numbers as too many people are turned away.

Lightsaber

The portrayal of the situation in my eyes is that at this point, they aren't trying to hide the scope. There's chaos in the hospitals and clinics of Wuhan, a shortage of test kits, and the suspected infected people are having to wait 2 days for "confirmation". Others with symptoms are supposedly being turned away because there is simply no room for them. Everything I've seen is saying that especially in Wuhan, cases are being under reported due to their healthcare system being completely overwhelmed. Supposedly the PRC is now mobilizing their military medics and supplies into the city, so hopefully we stop seeing as many scenes of desperation and chaos coming out of the city.

Honestly, I'm not fond of the PRCs government but right now they've definitely let go of their iron grip on the flow of information. It makes me trust what I see a bit more and I think this is the PRC admitting they have a crisis on their hands. The government spin on this is along the lines of "We can defeat this if we all work hard to overcome it" while allowing people to see what is happening.

I do think Taiwan has a legitimate beef with being left out of WHO meetings though, when it comes to complaints of inadequate information.

Also, current official tally is 2762 confirmed cases in China, 5794 suspected, 80 deaths. It looks like the official numbers of SARS will be surpassed, although I'm starting to suspect we never came close to knowing the true scope of SARS.

We can agree. It was odd little Hong Kong slmost had as many cases as China for SARS.

Under reporting is happening now for supply reasons. Before it was a strangely patriotic virus that infected only a small area of China and the spread out to other nations... hmmm... odd for a passenger rail hub...

But this doesn't have the death rate of SARS. It spreads faster, but this is like a really bad flu, not like SARS deadly (even though I believe a large under reporting of deaths as lack of kits prevents confirmation).

Note: I believe everything, within reason and normal bungling, is now being done for supplies, including test kits.

Unfortunately, a late start to containment, by about 3 weeks, dispersed hundreds of thousands of people the last few weeks.

If I ratio and just use the 300,000 train passenger number from before,:
5,000 suspected cases/11 million people * 300,000 people= 136 cases left Wuhan.

That number is probably low. It is almost certainly between the 200 to 1,000 infected people left Wuhan. With an Ro of 1.7 to 2.5 estimated (last I looked), that means between 540 and 3,500 cases exist outside Wuhan (I assume only one contagion period has elapsed).

Rail is mostly local, so the province quarantine will help contain the majority. But 10% to 20% of the cases are now outside the quarantine zone. So 54 to 700 cases by my estimate. Rhoo Rhoo.

It is possible one infected person traveling by rail might have done far more single handidly if the infected say a railroad customer relations worker, airline stewardesses, or Disneyland Shanghai worker prior to quarantine announcement.

Thankfully, this isn't measles or Mumps with their super high Ro (one person infects many).

Lightsaber

The estimates for the R0 i've seen have gone from the 1.4 to 5 range. Since nothing is solid yet, I do think it's safe to say it's more infectious than the flu but by no means comparable to Measles.

And like I was debating before, I think it's a good idea to hold off on declaring this less deadly than SARS. After looking at how long It took to kill the previous people who died we need the rate of new infections to stop exponentially increasing for a couple of weeks to start to get an accurate idea on the case fatality rate. I think a quote I saw earlier today from the US CDC sums it up, we'll have to keep waiting to see how bad it will really be but meanwhile we need to prepare for this as a pandemic.

They are building a 1,000 bed hospital in just 6 days. I’ve seen them put up skyscrapers in a three months which is mind blowing, but this is pretty astounding what can get accomplished when the government puts its collective will together. https://www.businessinsider.com/china-v ... rus-2020-1

SanDiegoLover wrote:

They are building a 1,000 bed hospital in just 6 days. I’ve seen them put up skyscrapers in a three months which is mind blowing, but this is pretty astounding what can get accomplished when the government puts its collective will together. https://www.businessinsider.com/china-v ... rus-2020-1

It's been the same image of them moving dirt for the past couple of days. Only way this could be feasible or safe is using modular construction. I'm curious how this turns out.

Jouhou wrote:

lightsaber wrote:

Jouhou wrote:

The portrayal of the situation in my eyes is that at this point, they aren't trying to hide the scope. There's chaos in the hospitals and clinics of Wuhan, a shortage of test kits, and the suspected infected people are having to wait 2 days for "confirmation". Others with symptoms are supposedly being turned away because there is simply no room for them. Everything I've seen is saying that especially in Wuhan, cases are being under reported due to their healthcare system being completely overwhelmed. Supposedly the PRC is now mobilizing their military medics and supplies into the city, so hopefully we stop seeing as many scenes of desperation and chaos coming out of the city.

Honestly, I'm not fond of the PRCs government but right now they've definitely let go of their iron grip on the flow of information. It makes me trust what I see a bit more and I think this is the PRC admitting they have a crisis on their hands. The government spin on this is along the lines of "We can defeat this if we all work hard to overcome it" while allowing people to see what is happening.

I do think Taiwan has a legitimate beef with being left out of WHO meetings though, when it comes to complaints of inadequate information.

Also, current official tally is 2762 confirmed cases in China, 5794 suspected, 80 deaths. It looks like the official numbers of SARS will be surpassed, although I'm starting to suspect we never came close to knowing the true scope of SARS.

We can agree. It was odd little Hong Kong slmost had as many cases as China for SARS.

Under reporting is happening now for supply reasons. Before it was a strangely patriotic virus that infected only a small area of China and the spread out to other nations... hmmm... odd for a passenger rail hub...

But this doesn't have the death rate of SARS. It spreads faster, but this is like a really bad flu, not like SARS deadly (even though I believe a large under reporting of deaths as lack of kits prevents confirmation).

Note: I believe everything, within reason and normal bungling, is now being done for supplies, including test kits.

Unfortunately, a late start to containment, by about 3 weeks, dispersed hundreds of thousands of people the last few weeks.

If I ratio and just use the 300,000 train passenger number from before,:
5,000 suspected cases/11 million people * 300,000 people= 136 cases left Wuhan.

That number is probably low. It is almost certainly between the 200 to 1,000 infected people left Wuhan. With an Ro of 1.7 to 2.5 estimated (last I looked), that means between 540 and 3,500 cases exist outside Wuhan (I assume only one contagion period has elapsed).

Rail is mostly local, so the province quarantine will help contain the majority. But 10% to 20% of the cases are now outside the quarantine zone. So 54 to 700 cases by my estimate. Rhoo Rhoo.

It is possible one infected person traveling by rail might have done far more single handidly if the infected say a railroad customer relations worker, airline stewardesses, or Disneyland Shanghai worker prior to quarantine announcement.

Thankfully, this isn't measles or Mumps with their super high Ro (one person infects many).

Lightsaber

The estimates for the R0 i've seen have gone from the 1.4 to 5 range. Since nothing is solid yet, I do think it's safe to say it's more infectious than the flu but by no means comparable to Measles.

And like I was debating before, I think it's a good idea to hold off on declaring this less deadly than SARS. After looking at how long It took to kill the previous people who died we need the rate of new infections to stop exponentially increasing for a couple of weeks to start to get an accurate idea on the case fatality rate. I think a quote I saw earlier today from the US CDC sums it up, we'll have to keep waiting to see how bad it will really be but meanwhile we need to prepare for this as a pandemic.

London collage latest update now estimates Ro 2 to 3, almost 2,800 confirmed infected, 70 in Beijing.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wu ... ar-BBZm0TT

"In a paper published Sunday, scientists at Imperial College London estimated that each person infected has gone on to spread the virus to two or three others.

"This implies that control measures need to block well over 60% of transmission to be effective in controlling the outbreak," they added."

That is a higher Ro than what I've read on the Flu Ro of 1.47 to 2.21 (see link below). The Ro estimate range has shifted as I noted before from 2 to 3. I've done my own estimates and the absolute minimum Ro would be 1.71.

As we know cases were under reported, anecdotal evidence supports Ro of 2 to 3. The Ro near 5 seems improbable. I'm aware of the Malaysia cases infected by Singapore's first case and the trend just isn't at the upper bound. But then again, the trend isn't at the lower range.

I also should note we should expect a different Ro in different populations. So the Ro will possibly be different in Africa, South America, Europe, South Asia, Polynesia, or North America.

https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/ ... 334-14-480

My opinion is this is a new cold, with less resistance than a cold or flu that is related to a prior cold or flu and that is how it is trending. At this time we do have enough information to state it is slightly more infectious than the flu.

We agree it is nothing like Measles or Mumps.

For the fatality rate, I agree we must wait, but we have enough trending information to know it is worse than a typical flu. In rough numbers, a typical flu in the USA might infect 140,000,000, it will hospitalize 140,000, and kill under 14,000 (usually 6,000 to 11,000 per season). So 0.1% hospitalized (bad cases), 10% of hospitalized (or less) die.

We know this disease is overloading hospitals (perhaps due to panic), the ultimate fatality rate we can agree is unknown, but trending towards the upper end of flu, or fractionally higher. This is to be expected of a new disease.

Thankfully, nothing close to SARS lethality, but much more contagious than SARS.

Lightsaber

Jouhou wrote:

SanDiegoLover wrote:

They are building a 1,000 bed hospital in just 6 days. I’ve seen them put up skyscrapers in a three months which is mind blowing, but this is pretty astounding what can get accomplished when the government puts its collective will together. https://www.businessinsider.com/china-v ... rus-2020-1

It's been the same image of them moving dirt for the past couple of days. Only way this could be feasible or safe is using modular construction. I'm curious how this turns out.

https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/ ... 334-14-480

From:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wu ... ar-BBZm0TT
"Wuhan is believed to be using the prefabricated structures of Xiaotangshan Hospital as a template for its own model."

Opening date was Feb 3 per link. I too am curious how it turns out.

From https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wu ... ar-BBZm0TT

On Thursday, David Heymann, the chairman of a World Health Organization (WHO) committee gathering data on the outbreak, said the virus spreads more easily from person to person than previously thought. "We are now seeing second and third generation spread," Heymann said.

Just more evidence the Ro shifted up. Not horrid, but I earlier posted links for a Ro of 1.4 to 2.5. I think the Ro of 2 to 3 seems more accurate.

I find it facinating that most of the Coronavirus samples (31 of 33 positive) were in the wild animal area of the suspect market (same link). Either a person who worked that market or an animal spread the disease to Wuhan. I personally guess (a hunch based on intuition, not fact) that patient zero probably was a villager who caught the virus from animals they handled. It wouldn't surprise me if the virus was brought to Wuhan by someone patient zero infected.

Lightsaber

As for the lethality of this, I'd wait for the numbers of the second generation of infections. The early patients had been tracked with great detail and It seems it's only after that batch that the hospitals are getting overwhelmed- but a lot of the second batch are still in the hospital. There's still good detail coming out of the provinces that haven't yet been overwhelmed.

As for Panic, only in the cities they quarantined I think. My cousins just visited from Shanghai and they seem to have that distant "What's the big deal? It's only a couple of people in Shanghai" attitude. Like they are people in an isolated far away county when they've actually been living there. The numbers in Shanghai continue to increase daily too though. I wonder if they won't end up staying here longer than they anticipated.

All of these doomsday information is cool, but Wuhan airport is still open and flights in and out are happening..

It must not be THAT bad..

santi319 wrote:

All of these doomsday information is cool, but Wuhan airport is still open and flights in and out are happening..

It must not be THAT bad..

What doomsday information?

Also, WUH had been closed for days by now. Yes, there are occasional flights that fly into there, but they're either flights to send those Wuhan people back to Wuhan, or special flights that send resources and people (including PLA) in, but that's about it. Commercial services had stop, period, as are railways in/out of basically 90% of Hubei province. The bottom line is, you're talking about a handful of flights coming in and out compare to the hundreds of flight WUH normally received everyday.

The number of cases just keep growing by days, as are the number of deaths. Things are being shutdown all over mainland China even in Beijing and Shanghai. But somehow it's doomsday?

zakuivcustom wrote:

What doomsday information?

Also, WUH had been closed for days by now. Yes, there are occasional flights that fly into there, but they're either flights to send those Wuhan people back to Wuhan, or special flights that send resources and people (including PLA) in, but that's about it. Commercial services had stop

Hey buddy have you verified this information? For example today, Royal Air Philippines operated their flight from KLO to WUH... I really doubt this is an “emergency” charter.

Don’t know just trying to get a clear picture.

santi319 wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

What doomsday information?

Also, WUH had been closed for days by now. Yes, there are occasional flights that fly into there, but they're either flights to send those Wuhan people back to Wuhan, or special flights that send resources and people (including PLA) in, but that's about it. Commercial services had stop

Hey buddy have you verified this information? For example today, Royal Air Philippines operated their flight from KLO to WUH... I really doubt this is an “emergency” charter.

Don’t know just trying to get a clear picture.

Hainan Airlines also flew from WUH to Haiku today. I have no idea if there were passengers on the plane, but I was surprised to see the flight in the air.

USA recommending against travel to China due to the possibility of travel bans with little to no warning.

http://news.trust.org/item/20200127192459-dowhs

I believe this is a real risk. I also believe that now that China is being open, the recommendation should be lifted once this is under control. I'm not happy with how this was handled at first, but now that China is being open, such behavior should be rewarded. I'm a believer in Pavlovian conditioning for individuals and governments. If China sees a fair rather than political lifting, they will be more open in the future, hopefully obviously my opinion.

Lightsaber

santi319 wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

What doomsday information?

Also, WUH had been closed for days by now. Yes, there are occasional flights that fly into there, but they're either flights to send those Wuhan people back to Wuhan, or special flights that send resources and people (including PLA) in, but that's about it. Commercial services had stop

Hey buddy have you verified this information? For example today, Royal Air Philippines operated their flight from KLO to WUH... I really doubt this is an “emergency” charter.

Don’t know just trying to get a clear picture.

Umm...

https://m.theepochtimes.com/156-chinese ... 16093.html

So yes, definitely emergency charter in a sense that Philippines is literally sending those Chinese tourists from Wuhan back to Wuhan.

VTKillarney wrote:

santi319 wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

What doomsday information?

Also, WUH had been closed for days by now. Yes, there are occasional flights that fly into there, but they're either flights to send those Wuhan people back to Wuhan, or special flights that send resources and people (including PLA) in, but that's about it. Commercial services had stop

Hey buddy have you verified this information? For example today, Royal Air Philippines operated their flight from KLO to WUH... I really doubt this is an “emergency” charter.

Don’t know just trying to get a clear picture.

Hainan Airlines also flew from WUH to Haiku today. I have no idea if there were passengers on the plane, but I was surprised to see the flight in the air.

IIRC that plane flew from HAK to WUH. Not sure who's on it, though, perhaps those people from Hubei which are not exactly welcome anywhere?

The bottom line is, WUH is close, period. Nobody going out, and other than people that are from Wuhan and perhaps medical professionals, nobody going in, either.

BTW...latest update...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ce=twitter

In Hubei ALONE there's 1000+ new confirm case, with death toll officially jumping over 100.

And somehow people still think the nCoV is nothing to worry about.

I seriously can't imagine how bad things would be if China did not go full out quarantine on people from Hubei - the situation is VERY ugly there.

zakuivcustom wrote:

santi319 wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

What doomsday information?

Also, WUH had been closed for days by now. Yes, there are occasional flights that fly into there, but they're either flights to send those Wuhan people back to Wuhan, or special flights that send resources and people (including PLA) in, but that's about it. Commercial services had stop

Hey buddy have you verified this information? For example today, Royal Air Philippines operated their flight from KLO to WUH... I really doubt this is an “emergency” charter.

Don’t know just trying to get a clear picture.

Umm...

https://m.theepochtimes.com/156-chinese ... 16093.html

So yes, definitely emergency charter in a sense that Philippines is literally sending those Chinese tourists from Wuhan back to Wuhan.

VTKillarney wrote:

santi319 wrote:

Hey buddy have you verified this information? For example today, Royal Air Philippines operated their flight from KLO to WUH... I really doubt this is an “emergency” charter.

Don’t know just trying to get a clear picture.

Hainan Airlines also flew from WUH to Haiku today. I have no idea if there were passengers on the plane, but I was surprised to see the flight in the air.

IIRC that plane flew from HAK to WUH. Not sure who's on it, though, perhaps those people from Hubei which are not exactly welcome anywhere?

The bottom line is, WUH is close, period. Nobody going out, and other than people that are from Wuhan and perhaps medical professionals, nobody going in, either.

Thanks for the correction. I really wanted to believe things were not as bad. But looks like they are...

Scary

zakuivcustom wrote:

BTW...latest update...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ce=twitter

In Hubei ALONE there's 1000+ new confirm case, with death toll officially jumping over 100.

And somehow people still think the nCoV is nothing to worry about.

I seriously can't imagine how bad things would be if China did not go full out quarantine on people from Hubei - the situation is VERY ugly there.

Now 2700 in province, 4,000+ in China.

Data from following link:
Facinating map. Quarantine was too late. oops...
https://time.com/5772481/china-coronavirus-latest/

Lightsaber

Jouhou wrote:

Thing about coronaviruses there's still no vaccine for them.

There is, BTW. It's just for dogs. Coronaviruses infect multiple species of vertebrate.

So we know how to make a coronavirus vaccine. We just don't have one for humans. Should take about a year to have one out.

Keep in mind that this virus seems to be dangerous mostly to people who are already medically fragile.

DocLightning wrote:

Jouhou wrote:

Thing about coronaviruses there's still no vaccine for them.

There is, BTW. It's just for dogs. Coronaviruses infect multiple species of vertebrate.

So we know how to make a coronavirus vaccine. We just don't have one for humans. Should take about a year to have one out.

Keep in mind that this virus seems to be dangerous mostly to people who are already medically fragile.

Doc, what is medically fragile? Are we talking about heart and lung issues, cancer, weakened immune systems?

does this look more like the Flu?
I read an article that it doesn't appear this one is as deadly as SARS, but it is definitely spreading faster. is that bunk . or do we need to wait for more data?

casinterest wrote:

Doc, what is medically fragile? Are we talking about heart and lung issues, cancer, weakened immune systems?

does this look more like the Flu?
I read an article that it doesn't appear this one is as deadly as SARS, but it is definitely spreading faster. is that bunk . or do we need to wait for more data?

Keep in mind that my information is mostly hearsay and preliminary, but as a physician I do have some better ability to separate wheat from chaff.

It appears that the symptoms may overlap with influenza, but tend to involve more lower respiratory symptoms such as shortness-of-breath and cough. Generally, virii that are rapidly and uniformly Ifatal, such as ebola, do not spread very well because they debilitate their hosts before they can spread. The fact that 2019-nCoV is less fatal and may cause milder disease in younger and healthier patients means that these patients may go undetected, but spread the virus. At this point, the incubation period is between 2-14 days. It's probably closer to 2 than 14.

We are familiar with coronavirus diseases. Coronaviruses account for 15-20% of the common cold. This novel coronavirus is probably very similar to other coronaviridae and so it will be an acute illness with an acute phase of only 1-5 days. Once it has been cleared, the patient will almost certainly be immune to this specific strain. However, for those with underlying heart or lung disease, the illness can be much more complicated, leading to respiratory failure.

DocLightning wrote:

Jouhou wrote:

Thing about coronaviruses there's still no vaccine for them.

There is, BTW. It's just for dogs. Coronaviruses infect multiple species of vertebrate.

So we know how to make a coronavirus vaccine. We just don't have one for humans. Should take about a year to have one out.

Keep in mind that this virus seems to be dangerous mostly to people who are already medically fragile.

I know, my mom worked with canine coronavirus before. However veterinary medicine is a lot easier to get things approved for, there's less liability in general, and doesn't that use an adenovirus vector? We'd need an appropriate human adenovirus vector, however there's several being used in New vaccines so at least there's been research into which are ideal vaccine vectors.

I actually thought an adenovirus vector vaccine would be the quickest to develop here, but there's been some caveats with those. Like most older people having prior AdV5 immunity, which has been the preferred vector because of the strong response it induces. AdV26 I think is being used to develop Ebola and HIV vaccines. The non human adenoviruses seem to be mostly experimental at this point in time.

Elderly people are "medically fragile". I'm genuinely worried about my older family, and my 74 year old co-worker.

I genuinely wish more research had been out into developing human coronavirus vaccines. We knew about the looming threat, we had relatively benign but nuisance human coronaviruses we could have developed vaccines for and researched. BARDA funds advances in seasonal flu vaccines for pandemic prep, why not coronaviruses?

Jouhou wrote:

I know, my mom worked with canine coronavirus before. However veterinary medicine is a lot easier to get things approved for, there's less liability in general, and doesn't that use an adenovirus vector?

I believe both recombinant and killed vaccines are available for canine coronavirus. But even if it does, there are human adenovirus vectors that can be used. It would be very simple to splice some surface proteins from 2019-nCoV into such a vector. The canine immune system works very similarly to the human immune system, so if that strategy is effective in dogs, it is likely to be effective in humans.

The big hold-ups are licensing and scaling of the manufacturing process.

santi319 wrote:

All of these doomsday information is cool, but Wuhan airport is still open and flights in and out are happening..

It must not be THAT bad..

It is that bad. I would hope at some point we start refusing to let people that were in that area until we got a handle on this.

DocLightning wrote:

Jouhou wrote:

I know, my mom worked with canine coronavirus before. However veterinary medicine is a lot easier to get things approved for, there's less liability in general, and doesn't that use an adenovirus vector?

I believe both recombinant and killed vaccines are available for canine coronavirus. But even if it does, there are human adenovirus vectors that can be used. It would be very simple to splice some surface proteins from 2019-nCoV into such a vector. The canine immune system works very similarly to the human immune system, so if that strategy is effective in dogs, it is likely to be effective in humans.

The big hold-ups are licensing and scaling of the manufacturing process.

Live vaccines are generally the easiest to produce, the concern I was presenting was that there will be some portion of the population that won't be protected if we use AdV5 and if we use AdV26 the vaccines being developed that utilize it will be rendered useless. The first option would still help control and maybe stop a pandemic and the latter option would stop it for sure but flush the development of a couple of vaccines down the drain.

Inactivated vaccines for both SARS and MERS caused problems. They are a terrible idea to pursue.

A recombinant vaccine can be developed quickly, and BARDA has made investments in production facilities for pandemic flu that likely can produce a recombinant coronavirus vaccine as well. This is probably the #2 fastest option next to the Adenovirus vectored vaccine.

We need to be careful though, the inactivated vaccine problems indicate there are surface proteins we need to avoid targeting or the vaccine will backfire.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5027702/

NIKV69 wrote:

santi319 wrote:

All of these doomsday information is cool, but Wuhan airport is still open and flights in and out are happening..

It must not be THAT bad..

It is that bad. I would hope at some point we start refusing to let people that were in that area until we got a handle on this.

I missed the part where they didn't shut down all traffic in and out of the quarantined city except for what's been officially approved. I don't think that's reality and that's why countries are arranging special flights to evacuate their citizens.

I'm also increasingly angry at what a pathetic response the CDC is giving. They're barely screening for sick passengers, and they keep saying it's not spreading human to human when considering their guidance they aren't even planning on making an attempt to isolate the sick:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... -sheet.pdf

Useless. Please infect your families, if you live alone you aren't getting food, etc.

Nevermind what exactly their plan is for the homeless when they get infected.

It's like they either think it can't be contained and already gave up or they aren't taking this remotely serious enough.

Also the lack of test kits still, and the long lead time on getting back results being sent out now.

Press Conference given in Hong Kong by University of Hong Kong (HKU) Professors about their forecast models for the timing of the peak of the epidemic in the population centers of China.

They give information in English, then Cantonese.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYOSBhkkUMU

I'm a bit two-sided on this issue. In one way, looking at the number of infections and death, the issue seems to be overrated. Wuhan is a city with 11 Million inhabitants, so 5000 infected people is only around 0,045% of the total population of that city. I know that illnesses can spread exponentially, but then we didn't have any really serious pandemic in a long time.
I know that this risk should not be underestimated, but I noticed that many of my colleagues are seriously worried about their personal health because of this virus. Our company is now offering masks to our crews (we are based in Vietnam at the moment and are only operating domestic flights), which certainly is a sensible move as we, as aircrew, are certainly at a higher risk than the general population. I am just wondering if the level of worry is justified, looking at the actual numbers..

I think the biggest issue for me now is the response by the local authorities who by emerging accounts were aware of some sort of cold like virus spreading among the population in Wuhan as early as mid-December. They shut down the suspect fish market on January 1st. Clearly they knew something was going on but didn't announce anything until two weeks later. Perhaps they didn't fully understand what was going around - many people likely did not need medical attention. Perhaps they needed the serious cases to prop up before they could definitively say what was happening. But that doesn't excuse the silence and them allowing the Wuhan lunar new year celebration to go on. (A celebration that sees thousands come from all over the country, and world, to set a world record each year for the amount of people meeting to share a meal.)

While I think the overall danger from this virus is on the low side, its clear those who are at most risk should take extra precautions. But what really frustrates me the most is the response. If we can't contain a virus like this, how are we to contain something far more serious and deadly? That's what should alarm you.

trpmb6 wrote:

I think the biggest issue for me now is the response by the local authorities who by emerging accounts were aware of some sort of cold like virus spreading among the population in Wuhan as early as mid-December. They shut down the suspect fish market on January 1st. Clearly they knew something was going on but didn't announce anything until two weeks later. Perhaps they didn't fully understand what was going around - many people likely did not need medical attention. Perhaps they needed the serious cases to prop up before they could definitively say what was happening. But that doesn't excuse the silence and them allowing the Wuhan lunar new year celebration to go on. (A celebration that sees thousands come from all over the country, and world, to set a world record each year for the amount of people meeting to share a meal.)

While I think the overall danger from this virus is on the low side, its clear those who are at most risk should take extra precautions. But what really frustrates me the most is the response. If we can't contain a virus like this, how are we to contain something far more serious and deadly? That's what should alarm you.

They didn't just not announce anything, back in Jan. 1st or so the authority even arrest a few people for supposedly "spreading misinformation online" when they post on Weibo (IIRC) that there's some new viral outbreak going on in Wuhan!

The mayor of Wuhan is pointing fingers at central gov't (Basically saying that he was just following the rules of reporting that to central gov't first before announcing anything), the central gov't looks like is ready to throw the mayor of Wuhan and perhaps the provincial officials at Hubei under the bus. Sigh...CCP politics.

Jouhou wrote:

I'm also increasingly angry at what a pathetic response the CDC is giving. They're barely screening for sick passengers, and they keep saying it's not spreading human to human when considering their guidance they aren't even planning on making an attempt to isolate the sick:

CDC's response IS worse than even the HK gov't! (HK gov't is basically doing nothing until everyone else act more or less).

WHO is just as bad - they still actually believe China is being 100% honest about the whole situation!

Yes, China did better this time around than 17 years ago in the middle of SARS, and I do appreciate them taking proactive measures like quarantining the whole region. On the other hand, to certain extent they're still trying to downplay the situation as much as possible.

zakuivcustom wrote:

CDC's response IS worse than even the HK gov't! (HK gov't is basically doing nothing until everyone else act more or less).

To be fair, there is a geographical reason as to why the responses may differ.

A report from someone who has talked to people on the inside.

China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

The coronavirus in China is spreading, and largely could have been prevented. A town 7 km from where the virus was discovered in Wuhan had a state run banquet with 100,000 people eating off of the same dishes. This was 2 days after 49 cases were confirmed in Wuhan, China. The Chinese government is trying to save face, and now it is backfiring.

https://youtu.be/VLp8CHeKQkI

Jouhou wrote:

NIKV69 wrote:

santi319 wrote:

All of these doomsday information is cool, but Wuhan airport is still open and flights in and out are happening..

It must not be THAT bad..

It is that bad. I would hope at some point we start refusing to let people that were in that area until we got a handle on this.

I missed the part where they didn't shut down all traffic in and out of the quarantined city except for what's been officially approved. I don't think that's reality and that's why countries are arranging special flights to evacuate their citizens.

What about the people that made it out way before it was caught? Right now Chinese are still allowed to fly commercially here and I think that is a mistake. Cases are popping up everywere in the US and we need to get a handle on it. Nobody knows how many are infected. Our citizens are no the issue.

DIRECTFLT wrote:

China's Coronavirus is Much Worse Than You Think

We haven't seen anything yet. Things will go really crazy once this virus reaches areas with very high population densities, poor hygienic standards and large parts of this dense population malnourished. Think Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and the major part of Africa. It will wreak absolute havoc there...

Also, as has been suggested, the numbers coming from China are most likely nowhere near accurate. With such a long incubation period whilst already transmittable it's probably all over the place already, despite the desperate attempts to contain. Too little too late really, hence why we see new confirmed cases popping up all over the globe every day.

trpmb6 wrote:

I think the biggest issue for me now is the response by the local authorities who by emerging accounts were aware of some sort of cold like virus spreading among the population in Wuhan as early as mid-December. They shut down the suspect fish market on January 1st. Clearly they knew something was going on but didn't announce anything until two weeks later. Perhaps they didn't fully understand what was going around - many people likely did not need medical attention. Perhaps they needed the serious cases to prop up before they could definitively say what was happening. But that doesn't excuse the silence and them allowing the Wuhan lunar new year celebration to go on. (A celebration that sees thousands come from all over the country, and world, to set a world record each year for the amount of people meeting to share a meal.)

While I think the overall danger from this virus is on the low side, its clear those who are at most risk should take extra precautions. But what really frustrates me the most is the response. If we can't contain a virus like this, how are we to contain something far more serious and deadly? That's what should alarm you.

The shut down of the fish market was also participated by people from national authority, and even before that they have already arrested multiple citizens for saying there are confirmed cases of what effectively is SARS being spreading and accuse them for spreading rumors, so they definitely know more than what their pretended limited knowledge

The infection rate is clearly exponential by now. On average, 10 times as many people are infected/die compared to the week before:



If the World Health Organization does not get a handle on the situation soon, we will be looking at an infection toll of 45 millions a month from now and a death toll of 1+ million.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%8 ... s_outbreak

The numbers are getting high, but this doesn't stop the protester in Hong Kong from fighting for their right. Aren't they scared to be dead if they will continue going outside? A lot of airlines have canceled flights going to China. Hoping that they can find a cure ASAP as this is pretty alarming.