User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:12 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:

Those of us in the industry need to leave our jobs now and find something else. Either that, or find another way out (I'm choosing the latter I think).

Thanks 2020.


Naw, just save money now. If the industry implodes, expect some government assistance. There's usually some propping up happening when a whole industry implodes vs a single company closing up shop due to competition. We need the airline industry for things to return to normal once we have the... problem... resolved.

Like I said, sometimes pessimism is the best way of protecting yourself, because you're prepared. Just prepare now in case something bad happens. We don't know how bad things will actually get at the moment.


If this thing is going to kill me eventually why not quicken the process.


Why would it kill you? If that year is your birth year there's an astronomically small chance of that happening. Also economic pain that everyone is collectively having to go through is also not that bad. I felt like a champ getting a middle income job in the middle of the great recession. Because in comparison to everyone else I did well.
情報
 
kalvado
Posts: 2497
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:23 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Vaccine needs to be developed with the next several weeks or so, and the treatment trial in China needs to speed up. It is 1 second for midnight for the Coronavirus If they don't do this, 2% of a couple of billions people will die (i.e. tens of millions).
Stopping all modes of transport and locking everyone up in their homes is not an option, unless you want to create Greater Depression 3.0 and revert back to the Stone Age.

2% of population is far from end of world. annual natural mortality is in 1.5% range anyway
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:41 pm

kalvado wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Vaccine needs to be developed with the next several weeks or so, and the treatment trial in China needs to speed up. It is 1 second for midnight for the Coronavirus If they don't do this, 2% of a couple of billions people will die (i.e. tens of millions).
Stopping all modes of transport and locking everyone up in their homes is not an option, unless you want to create Greater Depression 3.0 and revert back to the Stone Age.

2% of population is far from end of world. annual natural mortality is in 1.5% range anyway


It's something that's sad but that is also a 98% survival rate. The biggest concern for most is economic, because even without border closures and fear 20% of cases will need hospital care. And they won't be able to work for at least a month. If you have elderly and retired relatives, if they stock up on non perishables they can hole up during a local outbreak and you won't have to worry about them getting infected.
情報
 
art
Posts: 3239
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:07 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Vaccine needs to be developed with the next several weeks or so, and the treatment trial in China needs to speed up. It is 1 second for midnight for the Coronavirus If they don't do this, 2% of a couple of billions people will die (i.e. tens of millions).
Stopping all modes of transport and locking everyone up in their homes is not an option, unless you want to create Greater Depression 3.0 and revert back to the Stone Age.

I am no expert but I do not think a vaccine can developed in a few weeks, whatever resources are available.

As for the mortality rate, I think that will depend to a degree on what treatment facilties are available. In countries with rudimentary health facilities the mortality rrate may be much higher than 2% whereas in countries with excellent health facilities it may be much lower (unless COVID-19 reaches epidemic proportions and overwhelms the health system).

Personally, I fear that humanity is facing the worst infectious disease outbreak since Spanish flu 100 years ago.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 11015
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:10 am

JetBuddy wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
I keep hearing from different sources that China has given up on testing everyone and delivering updated numbers. China is clearly worried about the financial effect going forward. If the real numbers were as low as they've reported the last few days, why are they planning on building 14 new "hospitals" like the leaking shipping container structure they built in 10 days?

I've also seen videos from Iran on Snapchat. Of sick kids in hospitals, struggling to breathe.. and with no O2 tube. Just laying there, dying. Is Iran really so incapable of delivering appropriate health care?


Of course they are - under sanction for years, they have had great difficulty procuring medical equipment from suppliers.

https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/iran ... 33634.html

The HRW report claims that although humanitarian trade is exempt from US sanctions, "broad restrictions on financial transactions, coupled with aggressive rhetoric from US officials, have drastically constrained the ability of Iranian entities to finance humanitarian imports, including vital medicines and medical equipment".

By listing Iran's central bank as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist on September 20, the White House hampered the entity that provides foreign currency for anyone bringing medical goods into Iran.

US sanctions are deterring banks and foreign companies from engaging in any kind of trade with the country. According to the report, this leaves "Iranians with rare or complicated diseases unable to get the medicine and treatment they require," said Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East director at Human Rights Watch.


Never miss an opportunity to blame America, of course. It's not like the Iranian regime themselves have anything to do with this...? We can expect Al Jazeera to be completely impartial in this matter. Right?

I don't want to have a political discussion about Iran, but you jumped on it. Iran can afford financing terror in the entire region, waging war in Syria and infecting the Iraqi political system. They can also afford relatively advanced cruise missiles, and use them on Saudi oil refineries.

But not O2 bottles for sick children struggling to breathe. And it's all America's fault. Sure.


Nobody said ‘it’s America’s fault’ - you added that inflection or assumed it. The reason is the impact of aspects of the sanctions regime.

And don’t pin this on me - you asked why they can’t care for the sick and got an answer. AJ is not the problem either - they are funded by a Sunni government and are not natural buddies of Iran.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
kalvado
Posts: 2497
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:14 am

art wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Vaccine needs to be developed with the next several weeks or so, and the treatment trial in China needs to speed up. It is 1 second for midnight for the Coronavirus If they don't do this, 2% of a couple of billions people will die (i.e. tens of millions).
Stopping all modes of transport and locking everyone up in their homes is not an option, unless you want to create Greater Depression 3.0 and revert back to the Stone Age.

I am no expert but I do not think a vaccine can developed in a few weeks, whatever resources are available.

As for the mortality rate, I think that will depend to a degree on what treatment facilties are available. In countries with rudimentary health facilities the mortality rrate may be much higher than 2% whereas in countries with excellent health facilities it may be much lower (unless COVID-19 reaches epidemic proportions and overwhelms the health system).

Personally, I fear that humanity is facing the worst infectious disease outbreak since Spanish flu 100 years ago.

It is not the first coronavirus to deal with; vaccine work - especially for veterinary purposes - goes back to at least 1970s - and probably earlier. There was also a lot of work in SARS and MERS vaccines in past years, and those viruses are fairly close to nCoV. So the vaccine can be a lot closer than one would think.
 
brissypete
Posts: 5
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2007 11:15 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:14 am

 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18954
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:30 am

JetBuddy wrote:
I keep hearing from different sources that China has given up on testing everyone and delivering updated numbers. China is clearly worried about the financial effect going forward. If the real numbers were as low as they've reported the last few days, why are they planning on building 14 new "hospitals" like the leaking shipping container structure they built in 10 days?

I've also seen videos from Iran on Snapchat. Of sick kids in hospitals, struggling to breathe.. and with no O2 tube. Just laying there, dying. Is Iran really so incapable of delivering appropriate health care?

If the numbers are so low, why not lift quarantines? Why bring in cruise ships to house medical staff? Why bring in 40 incenerators? I posted links previously. The scale of the response does not align with the data.

Iran I cannot discuss without lighting up the thread, my opinion is their leadership made some obvious mistakes.

I posted early in the thread I thought we would have to shut down global air travel. That time is by early March. Too late really, but oh well.

Not testing doesn't mean no contagion.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18954
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:41 am

kalvado wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Vaccine needs to be developed with the next several weeks or so, and the treatment trial in China needs to speed up. It is 1 second for midnight for the Coronavirus If they don't do this, 2% of a couple of billions people will die (i.e. tens of millions).
Stopping all modes of transport and locking everyone up in their homes is not an option, unless you want to create Greater Depression 3.0 and revert back to the Stone Age.

2% of population is far from end of world. annual natural mortality is in 1.5% range anyway

My opinion is the percentage will rise if everyone suddenly needs the limited resources to aid the sick, up towards the death rates of influenza in countries with poor healthcare.

There is s huge disparity in death rate to flu and pneumonia by nation, lower is better: 2.91 to 234 per 100,000 people.

https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cau ... y-country/

I believe overwhelmed health systems will trend up. Wuhan has a higher death rate, in my opinion, due to overwhelmed hospitals (lack of oxygen systems, IVs, basic medicine and care givers for simple stuff like food, water, cleaning, and Tylenol to bring down fevers makes a huge difference in my opinion).

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2497
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:52 am

lightsaber wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
I keep hearing from different sources that China has given up on testing everyone and delivering updated numbers. China is clearly worried about the financial effect going forward. If the real numbers were as low as they've reported the last few days, why are they planning on building 14 new "hospitals" like the leaking shipping container structure they built in 10 days?

I've also seen videos from Iran on Snapchat. Of sick kids in hospitals, struggling to breathe.. and with no O2 tube. Just laying there, dying. Is Iran really so incapable of delivering appropriate health care?

If the numbers are so low, why not lift quarantines? Why bring in cruise ships to house medical staff? Why bring in 40 incenerators? I posted links previously. The scale of the response does not align with the data.

Iran I cannot discuss without lighting up the thread, my opinion is their leadership made some obvious mistakes.

I posted early in the thread I thought we would have to shut down global air travel. That time is by early March. Too late really, but oh well.

Not testing doesn't mean no contagion.

Lightsaber

Italy is using military to cordon off cities - much smaller ones than Wuhan, though - over less than 200 confirmed cases. Are they overreacting as well?
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 11015
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:16 am

More laughable measures from Japan - only now, days later, will they start keeping extra tabs on those released from DP, and have asked them not to use public transportation (after several days of being out and about!)

https://japantoday.com/category/nationa ... g-negative
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:39 am

kalvado wrote:
art wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Vaccine needs to be developed with the next several weeks or so, and the treatment trial in China needs to speed up. It is 1 second for midnight for the Coronavirus If they don't do this, 2% of a couple of billions people will die (i.e. tens of millions).
Stopping all modes of transport and locking everyone up in their homes is not an option, unless you want to create Greater Depression 3.0 and revert back to the Stone Age.

I am no expert but I do not think a vaccine can developed in a few weeks, whatever resources are available.

As for the mortality rate, I think that will depend to a degree on what treatment facilties are available. In countries with rudimentary health facilities the mortality rrate may be much higher than 2% whereas in countries with excellent health facilities it may be much lower (unless COVID-19 reaches epidemic proportions and overwhelms the health system).

Personally, I fear that humanity is facing the worst infectious disease outbreak since Spanish flu 100 years ago.

It is not the first coronavirus to deal with; vaccine work - especially for veterinary purposes - goes back to at least 1970s - and probably earlier. There was also a lot of work in SARS and MERS vaccines in past years, and those viruses are fairly close to nCoV. So the vaccine can be a lot closer than one would think.



When they attempted to make a vaccine to FIP, it resulted in ADE upon challenge with the real virus. Same thing happened while using an inactivated whole SARS vaccine in mice. There has to be some caution here. It's not an easy group of viruses to make a vaccine for. The canine coronavirus vaccine uses a live adenovirus vector though and that worked.



...I have a suspicion the rapid worsening of symptoms in the third week of this illness is ADE related. I wonder if it's driven by the production of a particular type of antibody...
情報
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2058
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:46 am

If the Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918 is any indication of what will be ahead of us, we better prepare for TWO YEARS of travel bans, quarantines, and global economic depression.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:52 am

Dieuwer wrote:
If the Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918 is any indication of what will be ahead of us, we better prepare for TWO YEARS of travel bans, quarantines, and global economic depression.


The travel bans will end when people realize it's already in every country. We were overdue for a recession though, we just needed a triggering event. We definitely have one now.
情報
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2058
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:55 am

Jouhou wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
If the Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918 is any indication of what will be ahead of us, we better prepare for TWO YEARS of travel bans, quarantines, and global economic depression.


The travel bans will end when people realize it's already in every country. We were overdue for a recession though, we just needed a triggering event. We definitely have one now.


So you think my trip to Italy in April is safe?
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 11015
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:11 am

Seriously Japan?! Every government statement is more ridiculous than the one reported previous.

Japan won’t test medical workers who came in close contact with passengers on the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship docked near Tokyo, the NHK broadcaster reported on Sunday.

Doctors and nurses who don’t have symptoms won’t be examined because they have “mastered the technology to prevent infection,” the report said, citing the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium=social
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 995
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:53 am

There seems to be disagreement within the Japanese cabinet.

The Japanese minister of Defense has said that each military officer who has worked or is working on the DP is receiving a PCR test and undergoing a strict follow-up regime.

The elementary school in Hokkaido where 2 young children were found to be infected will remain closed until March 3rd.

Source ANN News on-screen https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coYw-eVU0Ks
 
Insertnamehere
Posts: 179
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2018 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:51 am

Currently, in Singapore, a bit of this is a little surreal as every hotel screens your temperature as you walk in (mine even logged my temperature as I checked in). However, the situation has seemed to have plateaued with a news article showing that there were no new cases yesterday and 2 discharged from the hospital.

This virus is scary because of the hyper-contagious nature but its not apocalyptic as the media wants us to think.
 
DLFREEBIRD
Posts: 1242
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:07 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:03 am

well, I finally found out where the passenger from the cruise ship went and where they did not go.

https://www.al.com/news/2020/02/coronav ... ck-up.html

for Pete's sake why did they split them up. Now they are in three states two with large populations. California, Colorado, and Texas. Couldn't they have just settled on bringing them to one state?
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1840
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:09 am

lightsaber wrote:
My opinion is the percentage will rise if everyone suddenly needs the limited resources to aid the sick, up towards the death rates of influenza in countries with poor healthcare.

This is definitely the case.

Wuhan had trained doctors, oxygen and medical supplies which would have still saved thousands. The death toll might be twice as bad in third world countries but half as bad in countries such as Australia.

This is how I calculate the mortality rate. I would first look at the death versus recovered value which for Wuhan that was between 10-11%. However I assume recovery takes twice as long as death so I would halve that percentage to 5-6%. I would also assume 50% of the cases weren't even counted as they had mild symptons. This drops the true mortality rate to only 2.5-3%.

Now this is close to the WHO value and it assumed a Wuhan standard medical system with moderate levels of supplies.

An excellent medical system might halve this mortality rate to between 1.25% and 1.5%. A third world country might have twice the mortality rate of 5-6%. This is hundreds of millions dead on top of the normal death rate.

The key to a low mortality rate is to reduce the sudden surge of people that needs the limited supply of medical services as you correctly pointed out.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:21 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
If the Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918 is any indication of what will be ahead of us, we better prepare for TWO YEARS of travel bans, quarantines, and global economic depression.


The travel bans will end when people realize it's already in every country. We were overdue for a recession though, we just needed a triggering event. We definitely have one now.


So you think my trip to Italy in April is safe?


It's not necessarily safe but that's a long time on this timeline and the situation could be worse or better, but other countries will likely be infected and the border crossings won't be as big of a deal.
情報
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:23 am

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
well, I finally found out where the passenger from the cruise ship went and where they did not go.

https://www.al.com/news/2020/02/coronav ... ck-up.html

for Pete's sake why did they split them up. Now they are in three states two with large populations. California, Colorado, and Texas. Couldn't they have just settled on bringing them to one state?


These people really aren't a threat if we can quarantine better than Japan can. It's the undetected cases that likely exist that are a threat.
情報
 
1989worstyear
Posts: 888
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:53 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:36 am

Jouhou wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

Naw, just save money now. If the industry implodes, expect some government assistance. There's usually some propping up happening when a whole industry implodes vs a single company closing up shop due to competition. We need the airline industry for things to return to normal once we have the... problem... resolved.

Like I said, sometimes pessimism is the best way of protecting yourself, because you're prepared. Just prepare now in case something bad happens. We don't know how bad things will actually get at the moment.


If this thing is going to kill me eventually why not quicken the process.


Why would it kill you? If that year is your birth year there's an astronomically small chance of that happening. Also economic pain that everyone is collectively having to go through is also not that bad. I felt like a champ getting a middle income job in the middle of the great recession. Because in comparison to everyone else I did well.


When you're a 5'4" grown male with an A320-200 birth year you're viewed as a 15 year old by interviewers. I even overheard one guy say "kid with lots of facial hair" at a friend's birthday party last summer. Actually, what am I saying - 15 year olds look more developed than I am at 30.

Maybe I could become part of the trials for the vaccine they're working on in Australia? If it breaks my immune system no big deal lol...
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:44 am

1989worstyear wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:

If this thing is going to kill me eventually why not quicken the process.


Why would it kill you? If that year is your birth year there's an astronomically small chance of that happening. Also economic pain that everyone is collectively having to go through is also not that bad. I felt like a champ getting a middle income job in the middle of the great recession. Because in comparison to everyone else I did well.


When you're a 5'4" grown male with an A320-200 birth year you're viewed as a 15 year old by interviewers. I even overheard one guy say "kid with lots of facial hair" at a friend's birthday party last summer. Actually, what am I saying - 15 year olds look more developed than I am at 30.

Maybe I could become part of the trials for the vaccine they're working on in Australia? If it breaks my immune system no big deal lol...


I work with someone who is almost 30 who literally looks like he's 16. He's still respected at work even though he looks ultra-young and he's made it very clear he does not like comments about his youthful appearance. He also has zero facial hair to make him look older.

I'll probably update this thread with news on the most promising vaccines since that was always a subject of my interest even when there is no imminent pandemic threat. Right now none of them have progressed to any notable phase though and a lot of the proposed technologies are too new to predict if they'll work.

I always wanted vaccines for "common cold" viruses so hopefully in the end we end up with a vaccine that puts an end to common coronaviruses as well.
情報
 
1989worstyear
Posts: 888
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:53 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:45 am

Jouhou wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

Why would it kill you? If that year is your birth year there's an astronomically small chance of that happening. Also economic pain that everyone is collectively having to go through is also not that bad. I felt like a champ getting a middle income job in the middle of the great recession. Because in comparison to everyone else I did well.


When you're a 5'4" grown male with an A320-200 birth year you're viewed as a 15 year old by interviewers. I even overheard one guy say "kid with lots of facial hair" at a friend's birthday party last summer. Actually, what am I saying - 15 year olds look more developed than I am at 30.

Maybe I could become part of the trials for the vaccine they're working on in Australia? If it breaks my immune system no big deal lol...


I work with someone who is almost 30 who literally looks like he's 16. He's still respected at work even though he looks ultra-young and he's made it very clear he does not like comments about his youthful appearance. He also has zero facial hair to make him look older.

I'll probably update this thread with news on the most promising vaccines since that was always a subject of my interest even when there is no imminent pandemic threat. Right now none of them have progressed to any notable phase though and a lot of the proposed technologies are too new to predict if they'll work.

I always wanted vaccines for "common cold" viruses so hopefully in the end we end up with a vaccine that puts an end to common coronaviruses as well.


16 is an adult though. 15 is not.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:15 am

1989worstyear wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:

When you're a 5'4" grown male with an A320-200 birth year you're viewed as a 15 year old by interviewers. I even overheard one guy say "kid with lots of facial hair" at a friend's birthday party last summer. Actually, what am I saying - 15 year olds look more developed than I am at 30.

Maybe I could become part of the trials for the vaccine they're working on in Australia? If it breaks my immune system no big deal lol...


I work with someone who is almost 30 who literally looks like he's 16. He's still respected at work even though he looks ultra-young and he's made it very clear he does not like comments about his youthful appearance. He also has zero facial hair to make him look older.

I'll probably update this thread with news on the most promising vaccines since that was always a subject of my interest even when there is no imminent pandemic threat. Right now none of them have progressed to any notable phase though and a lot of the proposed technologies are too new to predict if they'll work.

I always wanted vaccines for "common cold" viruses so hopefully in the end we end up with a vaccine that puts an end to common coronaviruses as well.


16 is an adult though. 15 is not.


He looked literally 12 when he started working with us. Thing is the commentary is usually just exclamations of "how the hell do you not age?" but I know he takes it personally in a way that makes him insecure. I also dated a guy who couldn't get served alcohol because no one thought his ID was real but he grew a giant beard and that actually solved his problem. My 29 year old brother can't grow a beard but actually looks older than me. If you can grow a beard, at least you can grow a beard. ~ off topic but the actual topic at hand is a bit heavy.

On topic, I guess our markets in the U.S. haven't tanked because people think the U.S. won't have issues with this virus? They're going to be disappointed.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN20I0HX
情報
 
DLFREEBIRD
Posts: 1242
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:07 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:24 am

Jouhou wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
well, I finally found out where the passenger from the cruise ship went and where they did not go.

https://www.al.com/news/2020/02/coronav ... ck-up.html

for Pete's sake why did they split them up. Now they are in three states two with large populations. California, Colorado, and Texas. Couldn't they have just settled on bringing them to one state?


These people really aren't a threat if we can quarantine better than Japan can. It's the undetected cases that likely exist that are a threat.


The Saga continues now, Trump Adm is trying to move them off of military bases to California City. A judge blocked the move.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/costa-me ... RTq-VuvOnE
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:29 am

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... 0I0N8?il=0

Apparently the WHO doesn't declare pandemics anymore. Oh, what exactly do they do then? They can't even name the virus/disease something decent. Glad I donate to Médicins Sans Frontièrs instead of anything else.
Last edited by Jouhou on Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
情報
 
dampfnudel
Posts: 570
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:42 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:30 am

Dieuwer wrote:
If the Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918 is any indication of what will be ahead of us, we better prepare for TWO YEARS of travel bans, quarantines, and global economic depression.

I seriously hope it doesn’t get that bad. Shortages of vital components made in China for prescription drugs will be a far more critical situation than out of stock iPhones, car parts or wedding dresses.
A313 332 343 B703 712 722 732 73G 738 739 741 742 744 752 762 76E 764 772 AT5 CR9 D10 DHH DHT F27 GRM L10 M83 TU5
 
art
Posts: 3239
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:40 am

Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 04 3,235
Feb 05 3,887
Feb 06 3,694
Feb 07 3,143
Feb 08 3,399
Feb 09 2,656
Feb 10 3,062
Feb 11 2,478
Feb 12 2,015

New cases of confirmed and diagnosed infections

Feb 13 15,152
Feb 14 05,090

New cases of confirmed and suspected infections

Feb 15 04,918
Feb 16 03,927
Feb 17 03,611
Feb 18 03,318
Feb 19 02,934
Feb 20 01,671
Feb 21 02,503
Feb 22 01,758
Feb 23 01,530
Feb 24 01,029

Change in last 2 days -33%

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 04 221,015
Feb 05 252,154
Feb 06 282,813
Feb 07 314,028
Feb 08 345,498
Feb 09 371,904
Feb 10 399,487
Feb 11 428,438
Feb 12 451,462
Feb 13 471,531
Feb 14 493,067
Feb 15 513,183
Feb 16 529,418
Feb 17 546,016
Feb 18 560,901
Feb 19 574,418
Feb 20 589,163
Feb 21 606,037
Feb 22 618,915
Feb 23 628,517
Feb 24 635,531

Change in last 2 days +1%

http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/24/c_76819.htm
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:49 am

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... 0I02V?il=0

Well, at least most of China is easing up its restrictions so a lot of the supply chain disruptions will be partially remedied. Hubei is still in lockdown status and that's still nearly 60 million people with severe restrictions on their movement.
情報
 
dampfnudel
Posts: 570
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:42 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:26 am

50 have died from the new Coronavirus this month in the city of Qom according to the Iranian government.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/a ... ws-agency/
A313 332 343 B703 712 722 732 73G 738 739 741 742 744 752 762 76E 764 772 AT5 CR9 D10 DHH DHT F27 GRM L10 M83 TU5
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:52 am

dampfnudel wrote:
50 have died from the new Coronavirus this month in the city of Qom according to the Iranian government.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/a ... ws-agency/


It's still only 12 confirmed, but you know their reporting is going to be as trustworthy as china's.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/ ... 54013.html

Also confirmed cases in Afghanistan, Kuwait and Bahrain.
情報
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1840
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:57 am

dampfnudel wrote:
50 have died from the new Coronavirus this month in the city of Qom according to the Iranian government.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/a ... ws-agency/

Iran would give a good example of what the coronavirus can do without medication. The mortality rate might be double of Hubei.

So in countries with the best medical system when they become overwhelmed the death rate of people stuck at home will sky rocket.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:41 am

https://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-relea ... 54176.html

Interesting infographic. I'm glad people are washing their hands more and using sanitizers, but why are so few disinfecting surfaces? Thats the most broadly protective thing you can do for yourself and others beyond maintaining hand hygiene.

https://boston.cbslocal.com/2020/02/13/ ... ronavirus/

For those in the airline business, this is good info. This is what needs to be focused on to reduce fear of flying.
情報
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18954
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:09 pm

China's food imports stalling:


https://theloadstar.com/food-exports-to ... tandstill/

2300 reefers stranded with cherries.

Due to the logjam at Chinese ports, shippers adding $1000 surcharge to shipping reefers (food) to China:

https://theloadstar.com/chinas-reefer-c ... don-boxes/

This won't clear instantly when the ports are finally staffed up. Ships will go from todays 10% full not to the Normal 85% full, but near to 100% full. That means for every week of shutdown, it takes a minimum of six to recover. Quarantine started 23 Jan 2020. Minus two weeks of normal Lunar new year slowness. I estimate this a has impacts out to June already.

That assumes a return to business this week.

Jouhou wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
If the Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918 is any indication of what will be ahead of us, we better prepare for TWO YEARS of travel bans, quarantines, and global economic depression.


The travel bans will end when people realize it's already in every country. We were overdue for a recession though, we just needed a triggering event. We definitely have one now.

The travel bans depend on how bad it is. People will still be quarantined on return. The question is, for how long.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3293
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:48 pm

Jouhou wrote:
On topic, I guess our markets in the U.S. haven't tanked because people think the U.S. won't have issues with this virus? They're going to be disappointed.


And Dow Futures is down ~800 points (~3%) as of my post right now...

Jouhou wrote:
It's still only 12 confirmed, but you know their reporting is going to be as trustworthy as china's.


The scary thing is NOT how many people die, but the death rate at Iran. There are <100 confirmed cases there, yet 12 already die.

Meanwhile, South Korea is on the crosshair as HK banned all non-HKer coming to HK from South Korea:
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hon ... axes-seoul

(Personal note - it took the HK govt what? A month AND a medical strike to even start quarantining people coming from mainland China, yet it only took them days as outbreak explode in South Korea to "close" the border on them...)

Some slightly good news from Singapore, though:
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeas ... infections

Looks like Singapore for the most part slow down the community spread in the city.

And my nudge that the heat helps recovery rate stands - 53/90 are recovered in Singapore. Similar recovery rate are observed in Malaysia, Thailand, and even Vietnam.
 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2531
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:43 pm

During the WHO press conference going on now, they stated that they were happy with the lower numbers reported by China lately. So obviously the WHO believe the Chinese authorities.

China has stated the fatality rate inside Wuhan to be between 2% and 4%. Outside Wuhan 0.7%. People with mild symptoms recover within 2 weeks. People with worse symptoms recover within 3-6 weeks.

WHO then goes on to praise China and says that the "significant measures" taken by China has averted a significant number of cases.

WHO refuses to use the word "pandemic", because "we're not witnessing the uncontained global spread of the virus".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTMjYnWrroI

Personally I tend not to believe WHO or their judgement. They're corrupt and dysfunctional like many other UN organizations.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 18954
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:00 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
On topic, I guess our markets in the U.S. haven't tanked because people think the U.S. won't have issues with this virus? They're going to be disappointed.


And Dow Futures is down ~800 points (~3%) as of my post right now...

Jouhou wrote:
It's still only 12 confirmed, but you know their reporting is going to be as trustworthy as china's.


The scary thing is NOT how many people die, but the death rate at Iran. There are <100 confirmed cases there, yet 12 already die.

Meanwhile, South Korea is on the crosshair as HK banned all non-HKer coming to HK from South Korea:
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hon ... axes-seoul

(Personal note - it took the HK govt what? A month AND a medical strike to even start quarantining people coming from mainland China, yet it only took them days as outbreak explode in South Korea to "close" the border on them...)

Some slightly good news from Singapore, though:
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeas ... infections

Looks like Singapore for the most part slow down the community spread in the city.

And my nudge that the heat helps recovery rate stands - 53/90 are recovered in Singapore. Similar recovery rate are observed in Malaysia, Thailand, and even Vietnam.

Singapore is an example of how to do this right. Find the cases as quick as possible and stop community transmission.

South Korea had a late start and it looks like the religion with so many cases isn't disclosing who could have been exposed.

I saw a link on Twitter last night that showed data on the rate South Korea is testing. Knowing what you don't know allows better allocation of resources. Sorry, I couldn't find the link just now, it had over 16,000 people tested.

11,600 to be tested:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/time.com%2f5 ... amp%3dtrue

I'm not worried about Singapore or South Korea. I am worried on the real numbers from China and six more countries.

Countries not testing scare me.
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2497
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:33 pm

lightsaber wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
On topic, I guess our markets in the U.S. haven't tanked because people think the U.S. won't have issues with this virus? They're going to be disappointed.


And Dow Futures is down ~800 points (~3%) as of my post right now...

Jouhou wrote:
It's still only 12 confirmed, but you know their reporting is going to be as trustworthy as china's.


The scary thing is NOT how many people die, but the death rate at Iran. There are <100 confirmed cases there, yet 12 already die.

Meanwhile, South Korea is on the crosshair as HK banned all non-HKer coming to HK from South Korea:
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hon ... axes-seoul

(Personal note - it took the HK govt what? A month AND a medical strike to even start quarantining people coming from mainland China, yet it only took them days as outbreak explode in South Korea to "close" the border on them...)

Some slightly good news from Singapore, though:
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeas ... infections

Looks like Singapore for the most part slow down the community spread in the city.

And my nudge that the heat helps recovery rate stands - 53/90 are recovered in Singapore. Similar recovery rate are observed in Malaysia, Thailand, and even Vietnam.

Singapore is an example of how to do this right. Find the cases as quick as possible and stop community transmission.

South Korea had a late start and it looks like the religion with so many cases isn't disclosing who could have been exposed.

I saw a link on Twitter last night that showed data on the rate South Korea is testing. Knowing what you don't know allows better allocation of resources. Sorry, I couldn't find the link just now, it had over 16,000 people tested.

11,600 to be tested:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/time.com%2f5 ... amp%3dtrue

I'm not worried about Singapore or South Korea. I am worried on the real numbers from China and six more countries.

Countries not testing scare me.

Recalling airline accident investigation reports from SQ and Singapore air investigation board, whatever it is called... I wouldn't hold my breath about efficiency of anything. Well, not really. Hold your breath and run away.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3293
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:03 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I'm not worried about Singapore or South Korea. I am worried on the real numbers from China and six more countries.


For South Korea - my only worry is that Daegu is turning into the South Korean version of Wuhan, and Gyeongbuk is turning into South Korean version of Hubei. But it simply show how fast nCoV can spread - from 31 cases just last week to >800 and counting a week later.

I personally do worry more about Japan - there are multiple clusters all over the country, and there are also a few virus carriers that traveled all over Japan. I expect the number there to go nuts the next two weeks or so.

As for China - I can almost bet that in their effort to begin to ramp production back up, they're just fiddling with the number, AGAIN. Hack, they even reopened Wuhan for about 4 hours so "outsiders" can leave the city, until that got quickly quashed.
 
DLFREEBIRD
Posts: 1242
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:07 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:25 pm

Quarantined cruise ship to get meals from José Andrés' charity



World Central Kitchen, initially created by chef José Andrés to help people stricken by natural disasters in the Caribbean, says it has set up a field kitchen in a parking lot near the Diamond Princess cruise ship at Shinko Pier in Yokohama, Japan, where the vessel is nearing the end of a 14-day coronavirus quarantine.



The charity is providing food for those on board in a bid to ease the strain on the ship's crew, which has been working to feed passengers, keep the ship clean and perform other duties as the cruise ship sits in isolation at the terminal.


The Diamond Princess' captain announced World Central Kitchen's new role in a shipwide address Tuesday, according to passenger Matthew Smith.


"This is to relieve pressure on the crew," Smith said via Twitter, adding that he believes the extra help could make it easier for people working on the ship to observe quarantine rules.



https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... director...
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 10201
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:50 pm

It is likely we are facing a pandemic.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... ne/607000/

"Even if Lipsitch’s estimates were off by orders of magnitude, they wouldn’t likely change the overall prognosis. “Two hundred cases of a flu-like illness during flu season—when you’re not testing for it—is very hard to detect,” Lipsitch said. “But it would be really good to know sooner rather than later whether that’s correct, or whether we’ve miscalculated something. The only way to do that is by testing.”"



I went in for a test recently to see if I had the flu. I didn't. But they didn't test for anything else. Most likely just a bad cold and i got better, but would folks with mild symptoms like mine ever suspect they are carrying it? It is just a common cold after all , for those that don't worsen,.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7928
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:19 pm

My personal thoughts.

Most countries don't have enough test kits and depend on China to supply the kits. Go figure.

The self-quarantine technique is going to come back and bite.

India is clueless and Singapore is managing numbers just like China. Ethnocentrism seems to be the top priority for Japan and Korea.

No PSAs anywhere on TV. Twitter referring to CDC when you search for coronavirus.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:18 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
On topic, I guess our markets in the U.S. haven't tanked because people think the U.S. won't have issues with this virus? They're going to be disappointed.


And Dow Futures is down ~800 points (~3%) as of my post right now...

Jouhou wrote:
It's still only 12 confirmed, but you know their reporting is going to be as trustworthy as china's.


The scary thing is NOT how many people die, but the death rate at Iran. There are <100 confirmed cases there, yet 12 already die.

Meanwhile, South Korea is on the crosshair as HK banned all non-HKer coming to HK from South Korea:
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hon ... axes-seoul

(Personal note - it took the HK govt what? A month AND a medical strike to even start quarantining people coming from mainland China, yet it only took them days as outbreak explode in South Korea to "close" the border on them...)

Some slightly good news from Singapore, though:
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeas ... infections

Looks like Singapore for the most part slow down the community spread in the city.

And my nudge that the heat helps recovery rate stands - 53/90 are recovered in Singapore. Similar recovery rate are observed in Malaysia, Thailand, and even Vietnam.



I am absolutely certain that what's happening in Iran is not an insane case fatality rate but instead a failure to identify the sick. There's probably thousands unidentified right now.
情報
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 995
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:21 pm

I have bad news from Japan.
The Japanese government has admitted that they are not and will not be testing all persons showing symptoms, they are testing only persons at risk of developping a critical condition or persons at risk of spreading it to a lot of people.This is consistent with the types of cases announced so far. Children, elderly, school teachers, railway company technicians.

Source: Nihon TV, on-screen http://www.news24.jp

The Italian PM Conte has admitted to have been surprised by the shear number of cases, and has confirmed that "a lot more than 3000 PCR tests have been taken".
"We are finding so many because we are looking for them."

https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2020 ... refresh_ce

A Belgian virologist is expecting an outbreak in Belgium in the coming weeks as people will return from Italy infected at the end of the school holiday on March 1st.
It's impossible to close all airports and borders and it's impossible to check everyone who comes through them. So it's likely that we'll be dealing with our own outbreak 1-2 weeks from now.
Don't blame the government though, blame the virus.

https://www.demorgen.be/nieuws/live-vir ... gle.com%2F
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2058
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:15 pm

What also seems unclear is what the 2% mortality rate encompasses. Is it mostly the elderly that die, or those that already have a compromised health, or is it completely random?
 
User avatar
lugie
Posts: 787
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:32 pm

Jouhou wrote:

I am absolutely certain that what's happening in Iran is not an insane case fatality rate but instead a failure to identify the sick. There's probably thousands unidentified right now.


I've read that at least around 85% of cases result in anywhere between no symptoms at all and very mild symptoms (i.e. often not even flu-like but more comparable to a common cold).

Using this metric, it's likely that instead of having under 100 confirmed in Iran and 12 fatalities, there are easily close to 1000 infected, most of them totally unaware though.


I think that this, combined with the media reports showing daily refreshed death tallies and entire towns being locked down, makes this virus especially hard to contain:
There might already be hundreds of thousands infected across the world, but only exhibiting a cough or a sore throat or no symptoms at all. Meanwhile, their image of Covid-19 and the new Coronavirus is that of a killer virus triggering an illness that will lead to a painful death, so most of them won't even consider the chance their "cold" might be Covid-19 indeed. Because of that, they go about their daily lives risking to infect people with preexisiting conditions or the elderly.

Heck, I might already have it. Several users on this forum may have it as of tonight. But statistically, most of those will not be affected by it in any significant way.
Q400 E175 E190 CRJ7 CRJ9 CRJX MD88 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A359 B733 B73G B738 B739 B748 B764 B772 B77W B788 B789
FRA STR HAM TXL MUC ZRH ACE BRU BLL DUB MAN ARN MAD OPO LIS FNC AMS PHL RDU LGA CLT EWR ORD ATL SFO MDW IAD YYZ SJO PTY
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:34 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
What also seems unclear is what the 2% mortality rate encompasses. Is it mostly the elderly that die, or those that already have a compromised health, or is it completely random?



I expect it to be disproportionately nasty for older people like SARS. It was dangerous enough to be scary for anyone 45+ and had a 50% chance of killing people 65+, while those 24 and younger had a less than 1% risk of dying.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspect ... sed-upward
Last edited by Jouhou on Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
情報
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:47 pm

lugie wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

I am absolutely certain that what's happening in Iran is not an insane case fatality rate but instead a failure to identify the sick. There's probably thousands unidentified right now.


I've read that at least around 85% of cases result in anywhere between no symptoms at all and very mild symptoms (i.e. often not even flu-like but more comparable to a common cold).

Using this metric, it's likely that instead of having under 100 confirmed in Iran and 12 fatalities, there are easily close to 1000 infected, most of them totally unaware though.


I think that this, combined with the media reports showing daily refreshed death tallies and entire towns being locked down, makes this virus especially hard to contain:
There might already be hundreds of thousands infected across the world, but only exhibiting a cough or a sore throat or no symptoms at all. Meanwhile, their image of Covid-19 and the new Coronavirus is that of a killer virus triggering an illness that will lead to a painful death, so most of them won't even consider the chance their "cold" might be Covid-19 indeed. Because of that, they go about their daily lives risking to infect people with preexisiting conditions or the elderly.

Heck, I might already have it. Several users on this forum may have it as of tonight. But statistically, most of those will not be affected by it in any significant way.


Keep in mind that it's mild for everyone in the first 2 weeks of the infection. Then 20% of those infected take a sudden turn for the worse. Statistically those first 2 weeks are making it hard to track this and get accurate numbers but we seem to be consistently getting a 20% rate of severe cases if "mild" cases are tracked for full course of their illness or if you take a large broad sample and track for the full course of illness.

The problem is it takes 2 weeks + for anyone to get sick enough to show up on a public health agency's radar. Not including sometimes lengthy incubation periods. If samples are not being taken of those presenting with "colds", when infections start turning severe it will already be too late to contain the spread without massive and draconian quarantines.
情報

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: BlueberryWheats, THS214, tommy1808 and 96 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos