Dieuwer
Posts: 2065
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:37 pm

kalvado wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Problem is, mask has to go on the sneezer, not on you. Until you're the sneezer, of course.
ANd then, there is still hope infection can be cut off at source, so general population risk from quick single exposure is low. And as far as I remember, a few people were taken off the planes and later tested positive, but no large clusters of cases from those. AC had one such event 2 weeks ago; but no follow-up cases.


You cannot have it both ways. Either it is highly contagious and border closures and quarantines are warranted, or it is not.
Unless we are absolutely sure about HOW the virus is transmitted, any statement for or against wearing masks, banning this or that, and locking up people or not is premature.

If as you say a few people on the AC plane were infected, but subsequently all the others on the same plane were and are healthy...then the preliminary conclusion must be that the virus is NOT highly contagious. To give a counter example, just imagine if a few people on that plane had Ebola. I am sure everyone on that plane on arrival at the airport would be dead.

There is no true boundary between "highly" and "not too much". So far, estimates are that average patient infects 3 people over the course of infection. Which is bad - but think about it... most of us interact with more than 3 people a week, so instant infection is not the thing. 3, or maybe 4, is still bad enough, so that serious steps are required. Some people want extreme steps (did anyone suggested to nuke Wuhan yet?). My impression is that a lot of what is done is an overkill. But I am afraid to say that - I am afraid to be proven wrong by future events.
https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/air-canada- ... -1.4824097 is the event I am talking about - and I didn't see any follow-up. It is close to 2 weeks by now, most infections should be recognized.


More information is needed about the AC passenger. Did she simply contract the virus by sitting next to an already infected passenger? Or did she used her finger to shove food into her mouth at an unsanitary restaurant in Asia? And why is everyone else not sickened on that same flight?
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:39 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
However, this virus spreads via "mucosa", and even the eyes. So it's very difficult to protect from.


Which is why some people go as far as wearing a goggle, or even plastic face shield.

Hygiene measures do go a long way, though - washing hands (with soaps), using hand sanitizers, using Cl-based disinfectant for cleaning surfaces (i.e. kitchen and toilets). Nothing is 100% foul proof, of course.

dtw2hyd wrote:
The only silver lining, this virus spared kids. Knock on wood.


Except it doesn't really "spared" kids. There are young patients <10yo in Japan.

The virus tend to not make kids VERY sick, though, even though kids' immune system in general is not fully developed.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:46 pm

Some outrageous news from Japan.
Opposition leaders have grilled the government pretty bad today in parliament and it seems to confirm what I have been fearing about the situation in Japan.

The questions asked to the minister of health and work was: how is it possible that South Korea has tested 40.000 people in less than a week and Japan has only tested 5700 people in a week (presumably includes Diamond Princess) ? How do you explain this?

Answer : We are investigating where the bottleneck is in our testing volume. Due to the limited available testing volume, health authorities have been reluctant to accept tests.
++++++++++
Nihon TV has interviewed people in the streets who had cold or flu like symptoms and all said that they would want to get tested to know if it's an early onset of Corona. "For the family, the children at home".
One mother interviewee said that she specifically asked to have her small child tested for Corona after the child exhibited 4 straight days of high fever, but her request was denied by the health authorities.

This is a true disaster in the makings.


Source : http://www.news24.jp live news footage (it's a loop, so those who understand Japanese)

Japan is still only taking 900 tests per day on average even though the capacity is supposedly 3800 per day.
Even when a doctor requests a tests to the health centera, they are unable to accept the request aa rheu are short-staffed. The government is trying to get corporations and universities to cooperate on testing.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202002 ... 31000.html

-Forget Italy, Iran or South Korea. Japan needs to be isolated immediately.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:58 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
However, this virus spreads via "mucosa", and even the eyes. So it's very difficult to protect from.


Which is why some people go as far as wearing a goggle, or even plastic face shield.

Hygiene measures do go a long way, though - washing hands (with soaps), using hand sanitizers, using Cl-based disinfectant for cleaning surfaces (i.e. kitchen and toilets). Nothing is 100% foul proof, of course.

dtw2hyd wrote:
The only silver lining, this virus spared kids. Knock on wood.


Except it doesn't really "spared" kids. There are young patients <10yo in Japan.

The virus tend to not make kids VERY sick, though, even though kids' immune system in general is not fully developed.


I have procured 3M full face masks and full protective suits.

The masks cost a lot of money but I need to stay mobile and productive throughout this crisis, so it goes down as a cost of doing business item.
If all the sh*t goes to hell, I hope to help infected people in my neighborhood.
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:04 pm

I am under the impression that once 50-100 cases or whatever (not all infected by the original carrier) occur in a country the task of tracing contacts becomes so demanding it is almost impossible.

Is it not time for countries to get together and decide on an organised response? Perhaps agreement about stopping passenger air travel from regions with infection, closing land borders with states with infection, quarantine measures for infected people etc

I think most of the world is heading for a big health crisis in the next few months, a crisis which could last until the majority of the people on this earth have been vaccinated.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:15 pm

art wrote:
I am under the impression that once 50-100 cases or whatever (not all infected by the original carrier) occur in a country the task of tracing contacts becomes so demanding it is almost impossible.


Singapore was able to trace almost all their cases (93 confirmed as of this writing) back to somewhere. Of course, it helps that Singapore is not that big geographically.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Answer : We are investigating where the bottleneck is in our testing volume. Due to the limited available testing volume, health authorities have been reluctant to accept tests.


In another word, they've absolutely no clue what they're doing...

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Nihon TV has interviewed people in the streets who had cold or flu like symptoms and all said that they would want to get tested to know if it's an early onset of Corona. "For the family, the children at home".
One mother interviewee said that she specifically asked to have her small child tested for Corona after the child exhibited 4 straight days of high fever, but her request was denied by the health authorities.


Basically, this is leading to an under-reporting of confirmed cases, and making things almost impossible to trace.

As shown in South Korea and Italy, it only take a little for the outbreak to grow exponentially. Japan is almost lucky that there are no major clusters yet.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:21 pm

I told my family to buy 3M P3 masks as well. They're quite expensive, like 50 Euros for a pack of 5. But they're effective.

The virus has now spread to Norway. 1 person who had spent time in the Hubei province and came home to Norway tested positive for the virus. The interesting part is that he was showing no symptoms, but he was tested anyway because he traveled from China. He's now in volunteer quarantine in his home.

Also a 2nd case in Sweden.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:14 pm

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/coronav ... dates.html

A few updates...
1. A new case is confirmed in US, the 15th non-Diamond Princess/Wuhan Returnee cases (Total 60).
2. Not sure if mentioned yet, but Brazil did confirm a case today, the first case in South America. The person returned to Brazil from Northern Italy. This also mean there's at least 1 confirm case in every single permanently inhibited continent. So far both South America and Africa are relatively shielded from the outbreak (2 cases in Africa so far - one in Egypt that's a Chinese national, and one in Algeria that's somebody that traveled to Italy)
3. Georgia (the country) also reported their first case today, somebody traveling from Iran.

The Italian outbreak is definitely a huge concern for Europe as so many people traveled there. The Iranian outbreak can also create a ripple effect in Middle East.
 
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lugie
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:54 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

A few updates...
1. A new case is confirmed in US, the 15th non-Diamond Princess/Wuhan Returnee cases (Total 60).
2. Not sure if mentioned yet, but Brazil did confirm a case today, the first case in South America. The person returned to Brazil from Northern Italy. This also mean there's at least 1 confirm case in every single permanently inhibited continent. So far both South America and Africa are relatively shielded from the outbreak (2 cases in Africa so far - one in Egypt that's a Chinese national, and one in Algeria that's somebody that traveled to Italy)
3. Georgia (the country) also reported their first case today, somebody traveling from Iran.

The Italian outbreak is definitely a huge concern for Europe as so many people traveled there. The Iranian outbreak can also create a ripple effect in Middle East.



The Italy outbreak is freaky, I don't know what went so completely wrong there.

It has sparked the first cases in how many countries, 4, 5?
Portugal, Switzerland, Austria, Croatia and Brazil can all trace their first confirmed cases back to Northern Italy. The new cases that have popped up in Spain are related to Italy as well as two clusters in Germany.

And they still haven't been able to determine their patient 0 and reconstruct infection chains.

With over 370 confirmed infections and 12 fatalities its not unreasonable to assume that there are easily upwards of 2,000 actual cases, considering the percentages of mildly symptomatic and asymptomatic (unobserved) cases that have been recorded so far.

It's probably safe to say that by now it has silently established itself in most European countries and all that can be done is bracing for a surge in serious cases over the next weeks so that adequate care can be ensured and fatalities can be kept low.

Maybe climate change can be helpful for once and start spring early this year, that would be very helpful.
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Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:13 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
art wrote:
I am under the impression that once 50-100 cases or whatever (not all infected by the original carrier) occur in a country the task of tracing contacts becomes so demanding it is almost impossible.


Singapore was able to trace almost all their cases (93 confirmed as of this writing) back to somewhere. Of course, it helps that Singapore is not that big geographically.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Answer : We are investigating where the bottleneck is in our testing volume. Due to the limited available testing volume, health authorities have been reluctant to accept tests.


In another word, they've absolutely no clue what they're doing...

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Nihon TV has interviewed people in the streets who had cold or flu like symptoms and all said that they would want to get tested to know if it's an early onset of Corona. "For the family, the children at home".
One mother interviewee said that she specifically asked to have her small child tested for Corona after the child exhibited 4 straight days of high fever, but her request was denied by the health authorities.


Basically, this is leading to an under-reporting of confirmed cases, and making things almost impossible to trace.

As shown in South Korea and Italy, it only take a little for the outbreak to grow exponentially. Japan is almost lucky that there are no major clusters yet.


I think that there already major clusters in Japan, they are just not reported as only few are being tested.
The government is looking the other way, as if this thing didn't exist.
Basically, Japan is a new Wuhan in the making.
Within a couple of weeks, the damages should become apparent...


Belgian physicians are complaining that they don't even have masks to protect themselves, despite the minister saying that Belgium is fully prepared to deal with Covid19.

https://www.hln.be/nieuws/binnenland/hu ... ~ac29dd4c/

A local online store suddenly had a stock of thousands of FFP2/FFP3 masks yesterday.
Today they are gone. Even masks at 7,00 EUR each.
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:07 am

Italian authorities have pleaded for Europe to work together with them to prevent the spread of coronavirus, as cases in Italy reached 400.

Italian premier Giuseppe Conte's government appealed to European neighbours for cooperation, not isolation and discrimination as his country struggles to contain the rapidly spreading outbreak.

https://www.lbcnews.co.uk/world-news/co ... rk-togeth/

I hope countries will very soon start waking up to the idea that they need to act together to reduce the effects of this international (perhaps soon to be worldwide) problem.
 
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Pudelhund
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:24 am

Every year, 10,000 Americans die from influenza. 40-50 million Americans carry it. Why is this virus that has infected so few Americans and has killed zero Americans such a big deal? It doesn’t even seem as contagious as ordinary flu.
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:39 am

Pudelhund wrote:
Every year, 10,000 Americans die from influenza. 40-50 million Americans carry it. Why is this virus that has infected so few Americans and has killed zero Americans such a big deal? It doesn’t even seem as contagious as ordinary flu.


I guess that exactly how contagious it is has yet to be established.

How many Americans it has killed out of less than 50 infected is no guide to its lethality. This source - Chinese CDC - with analyses based on 70,000+ cases should be accurate from the point of view of sample size.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/
 
kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:59 am

Pudelhund wrote:
Every year, 10,000 Americans die from influenza. 40-50 million Americans carry it. Why is this virus that has infected so few Americans and has killed zero Americans such a big deal? It doesn’t even seem as contagious as ordinary flu.

If published death rate of 2% is true (and some people here argue actual number is upward of 10%), and only 15% of americans gets infected - we're talking about 1 million dead bodies in US only in an optimistic scenario. Pessimistic scenarios - including collapse of healthcare and higher mortality - can easily bring the number to tens millions.
Nobody knows if these estimates are true - but nobody wants to actually check them.
 
dampfnudel
Posts: 574
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:00 am

JetBuddy wrote:
I told my family to buy 3M P3 masks as well. They're quite expensive, like 50 Euros for a pack of 5. But they're effective.

The virus has now spread to Norway. 1 person who had spent time in the Hubei province and came home to Norway tested positive for the virus. The interesting part is that he was showing no symptoms, but he was tested anyway because he traveled from China. He's now in volunteer quarantine in his home.

Also a 2nd case in Sweden.

Do you have goggles? Transmission can occur through the eyes as well.
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:31 am

Pudelhund wrote:
Every year, 10,000 Americans die from influenza. 40-50 million Americans carry it. Why is this virus that has infected so few Americans and has killed zero Americans such a big deal? It doesn’t even seem as contagious as ordinary flu.

It is concerning as the data from China doesn't match anecdotal evidence of videos, crematorium utilization spike, or too many accounts that slipped out.

When news is good, shout it out, bring everyone over to see.

Instead we have internet cut and independent auditors out of the area. If one of the big accounting firms audited the crematoriums and hospitals for actual admitted, recovery, and deaths, I would stand down.

The Chinese data seems as good as their SARS data and economic data (managed).

Lightsaber
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:33 am

For the record, I am embarrassed I wasn't following how many were actually tested in the USA. I thought words would be followed by deeds. IMHO 20,000+ should have been tested. It is time for kits to be at all hospitals, senior homes (with say 80+ residents), and a few doctors offices. What did I miss?

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trpmb6
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:00 am

I suspect it's already too late. We now have a suspected case of community transmission in the USA. That means there are many more infected who are unawares. And they are infecting others.

The response by the chinese has really endangered the whole world. Authoritarian regimes always find a way to do that it seems.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:11 am

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... les-2020-2

Well, that's likely how it was brought to the US.

Good luck everyone.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:28 am

I wrote a day or two ago that I was glad the Trump administration takes this seriously.

Well, after the press conference today, I'm not impressed. There might be people in the administration as well as the CDC and other governmental organizations that do take it seriously, but Trump was just repeating the point that he was surprised to learn how many people die of the regular flu every season.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:23 am

trpmb6 wrote:
I suspect it's already too late. We now have a suspected case of community transmission in the USA. That means there are many more infected who are unawares. And they are infecting others.

The response by the chinese has really endangered the whole world. Authoritarian regimes always find a way to do that it seems.


Not just an authoritarian regime, but a regime that sat on its ass over the last 15 years, while letting the same conditions that started SARS continue.

I hope all of these big foreign corporations dealing with supply chain nightmares are happy with putting so much of their manufacturing in the PRC basket.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:30 am

JetBuddy wrote:
I wrote a day or two ago that I was glad the Trump administration takes this seriously.

Well, after the press conference today, I'm not impressed. There might be people in the administration as well as the CDC and other governmental organizations that do take it seriously, but Trump was just repeating the point that he was surprised to learn how many people die of the regular flu every season.


Thing is, Trump knows it's serious. He's worried the economy is going to tank and kill his re-election chances, but convincing people they don't need to take basic precautions and make contingency plans is going to exacerbate panic when shit does hit the fan. Also, his fans take him very seriously, is he trying to make his own supporters be the worst hit by this? I'm baffled.

Regardless, our #1 issue is a lack of medical PPE right now and even the low ball emergency funding request includes PPE money, at least that's covered. #2 is a lack of testing, I hope they fix this soon. Both of these need funding fast though so hopefully there will be bi-partisan support to get this all funded fast (there appears to be).

lugie wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

A few updates...
1. A new case is confirmed in US, the 15th non-Diamond Princess/Wuhan Returnee cases (Total 60).
2. Not sure if mentioned yet, but Brazil did confirm a case today, the first case in South America. The person returned to Brazil from Northern Italy. This also mean there's at least 1 confirm case in every single permanently inhibited continent. So far both South America and Africa are relatively shielded from the outbreak (2 cases in Africa so far - one in Egypt that's a Chinese national, and one in Algeria that's somebody that traveled to Italy)
3. Georgia (the country) also reported their first case today, somebody traveling from Iran.

The Italian outbreak is definitely a huge concern for Europe as so many people traveled there. The Iranian outbreak can also create a ripple effect in Middle East.



The Italy outbreak is freaky, I don't know what went so completely wrong there.

It has sparked the first cases in how many countries, 4, 5?
Portugal, Switzerland, Austria, Croatia and Brazil can all trace their first confirmed cases back to Northern Italy. The new cases that have popped up in Spain are related to Italy as well as two clusters in Germany.

And they still haven't been able to determine their patient 0 and reconstruct infection chains.

With over 370 confirmed infections and 12 fatalities its not unreasonable to assume that there are easily upwards of 2,000 actual cases, considering the percentages of mildly symptomatic and asymptomatic (unobserved) cases that have been recorded so far.

It's probably safe to say that by now it has silently established itself in most European countries and all that can be done is bracing for a surge in serious cases over the next weeks so that adequate care can be ensured and fatalities can be kept low.

Maybe climate change can be helpful for once and start spring early this year, that would be very helpful.


If I remember correctly Italy is the #1 European travel destination for Chinese tourists. Couple that with the fact it's one of the most elderly countries in the world and you get this. The first European country with widespread community transmission and a high fatality rate.

Also, Iran is the freakiest situation. They don't have a very elderly population but a ton of deaths. I'm pretty sure the spread is completely out of control there and Qom will end up being worse off than Wuhan.
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intrepidflyer
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:56 am

Jouhou wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
I wrote a day or two ago that I was glad the Trump administration takes this seriously.

Well, after the press conference today, I'm not impressed. There might be people in the administration as well as the CDC and other governmental organizations that do take it seriously, but Trump was just repeating the point that he was surprised to learn how many people die of the regular flu every season.


Thing is, Trump knows it's serious. He's worried the economy is going to tank and kill his re-election chances, but convincing people they don't need to take basic precautions and make contingency plans is going to exacerbate panic when shit does hit the fan. Also, his fans take him very seriously, is he trying to make his own supporters be the worst hit by this? I'm baffled.

Regardless, our #1 issue is a lack of medical PPE right now and even the low ball emergency funding request includes PPE money, at least that's covered. #2 is a lack of testing, I hope they fix this soon. Both of these need funding fast though so hopefully there will be bi-partisan support to get this all funded fast (there appears to be).

lugie wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

A few updates...
1. A new case is confirmed in US, the 15th non-Diamond Princess/Wuhan Returnee cases (Total 60).
2. Not sure if mentioned yet, but Brazil did confirm a case today, the first case in South America. The person returned to Brazil from Northern Italy. This also mean there's at least 1 confirm case in every single permanently inhibited continent. So far both South America and Africa are relatively shielded from the outbreak (2 cases in Africa so far - one in Egypt that's a Chinese national, and one in Algeria that's somebody that traveled to Italy)
3. Georgia (the country) also reported their first case today, somebody traveling from Iran.

The Italian outbreak is definitely a huge concern for Europe as so many people traveled there. The Iranian outbreak can also create a ripple effect in Middle East.



The Italy outbreak is freaky, I don't know what went so completely wrong there.

It has sparked the first cases in how many countries, 4, 5?
Portugal, Switzerland, Austria, Croatia and Brazil can all trace their first confirmed cases back to Northern Italy. The new cases that have popped up in Spain are related to Italy as well as two clusters in Germany.

And they still haven't been able to determine their patient 0 and reconstruct infection chains.

With over 370 confirmed infections and 12 fatalities its not unreasonable to assume that there are easily upwards of 2,000 actual cases, considering the percentages of mildly symptomatic and asymptomatic (unobserved) cases that have been recorded so far.

It's probably safe to say that by now it has silently established itself in most European countries and all that can be done is bracing for a surge in serious cases over the next weeks so that adequate care can be ensured and fatalities can be kept low.

Maybe climate change can be helpful for once and start spring early this year, that would be very helpful.


If I remember correctly Italy is the #1 European travel destination for Chinese tourists. Couple that with the fact it's one of the most elderly countries in the world and you get this. The first European country with widespread community transmission and a high fatality rate.

Also, Iran is the freakiest situation. They don't have a very elderly population but a ton of deaths. I'm pretty sure the spread is completely out of control there and Qom will end up being worse off than Wuhan.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-51641243

The UK has just expanded testing and now be testing folks with flu like symptoms at 8 hospitals and 100 doctors surgeries, so I expect the numbers to jump here. So far testing was only around 7000 In total - what about the US?
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:59 am

1989worstyear wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
I suspect it's already too late. We now have a suspected case of community transmission in the USA. That means there are many more infected who are unawares. And they are infecting others.

The response by the chinese has really endangered the whole world. Authoritarian regimes always find a way to do that it seems.


Not just an authoritarian regime, but a regime that sat on its ass over the last 15 years, while letting the same conditions that started SARS continue.

I hope all of these big foreign corporations dealing with supply chain nightmares are happy with putting so much of their manufacturing in the PRC basket.


The irony is ostensibly they have the most ability to curtail consumption of high risk meat with all the authoritarian means at their disposal. Oh well.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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CitizenJustin
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:29 am

With the grueling and unforgiving American work ethic, I’m surprised it hasn’t spread faster. If you’re sick and choose to go into work, you’re a trooper and commended for working through it. If you stay home, you’re lazy. I’ve always felt a lot of pressure to not call in. I read somewhere that sick people going into work costs the economy billions per year. It’s baffling why companies don’t do more to keep sick people out with those kinds of losses.
 
hkg82
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:43 am

I think it's important to not panic and overreact, and just start taking face/hand hygiene more seriously than you have ever before. The virus is global (has been for quite sometime obviously) and will continue to spread until such time it reaches its peak. It probably won't fizzle out completely like SARS and instead be endemic or seasonal.

Unfortunately, China did not learn the lessons from SARS, had they properly regulated the wildlife consumption trade and followed containment/isolation protocols upon nCov’s appearance in Wuhan, the situation may not have escalated to what it is now. But no point blaming people/countries anymore, it’s a global pandemic and we just have to tough it out and mitigate its effects as best as we can.
 
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CitizenJustin
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:45 am

Pudelhund wrote:
Every year, 10,000 Americans die from influenza. 40-50 million Americans carry it. Why is this virus that has infected so few Americans and has killed zero Americans such a big deal? It doesn’t even seem as contagious as ordinary flu.


I’m sure someone said the same thing about the Spanish flu when it began. “It’s just another yearly flu strain, so why the big deal?” This novel coronavirus has already killed more than the SARS outbreak, including the doctor who was the original whistleblower. It’s better to be alarmed than complacent in my opinion and viruses can mutate into more severe strains. The CDC has always warned that a major pandemic is only a matter of time. You just never know when nature will throw a curve ball and all hell breaks loose. I get where you’re coming from though as the media loves to sensationalize and scare people.
 
bgm
Posts: 2377
Joined: Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:37 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:09 am

trpmb6 wrote:
I suspect it's already too late. We now have a suspected case of community transmission in the USA. That means there are many more infected who are unawares. And they are infecting others.

The response by the chinese has really endangered the whole world. Authoritarian regimes always find a way to do that it seems.


And yet your beloved Trump is downplaying this thing as no big deal. Even the wannabe dictators are doing it too. :sarcastic:
Less praying, more hand washing.
 
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Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:19 am

bgm wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
I suspect it's already too late. We now have a suspected case of community transmission in the USA. That means there are many more infected who are unawares. And they are infecting others.

The response by the chinese has really endangered the whole world. Authoritarian regimes always find a way to do that it seems.


And yet your beloved Trump is downplaying this thing as no big deal. Even the wannabe dictators are doing it too. :sarcastic:


Eh, it's not really the time to prod people about their normal political views. It's better for us all if people from across the political spectrum unify under this cause. Viruses don't have a political preference.

The politicians are scared about economic impacts. They should be, but they're forgetting that if they don't confront the issue directly the economic damage will be even worse. They should be focusing on getting people mentally prepared and working to change their day to day habits to reduce transmission.
情報
 
1989worstyear
Posts: 888
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:53 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:23 am

hkg82 wrote:
I think it's important to not panic and overreact, and just start taking face/hand hygiene more seriously than you have ever before. The virus is global (has been for quite sometime obviously) and will continue to spread until such time it reaches its peak. It probably won't fizzle out completely like SARS and instead be endemic or seasonal.

Unfortunately, China did not learn the lessons from SARS, had they properly regulated the wildlife consumption trade and followed containment/isolation protocols upon nCov’s appearance in Wuhan, the situation may not have escalated to what it is now. But no point blaming people/countries anymore, it’s a global pandemic and we just have to tough it out and mitigate its effects as best as we can.


I guess the question is, what can we do to mitigate its effects?

Stop flights and have non-essential members of the workforce stay home for one month?
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
art
Posts: 3242
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:01 am

lightsaber wrote:
Pudelhund wrote:
Every year, 10,000 Americans die from influenza. 40-50 million Americans carry it. Why is this virus that has infected so few Americans and has killed zero Americans such a big deal? It doesn’t even seem as contagious as ordinary flu.

It is concerning as the data from China doesn't match anecdotal evidence of videos, crematorium utilization spike, or too many accounts that slipped out.

When news is good, shout it out, bring everyone over to see.

Instead we have internet cut and independent auditors out of the area. If one of the big accounting firms audited the crematoriums and hospitals for actual admitted, recovery, and deaths, I would stand down.

The Chinese data seems as good as their SARS data and economic data (managed).

Lightsaber


I share your scepticism in terms of the number of cases reported and think the real number is much higher but I see no advantage for the communist party to manipulate the analysis of those reported cases. For that reason I am minded to accept the Chinese CDC mortality analyses published by the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology as representative of the effects of COVID-19 on patients according to age, gender, pre-existing ailments.

I note a rider in the report that males may be disproportionately affected due to smoking more than females. Since comparatively few people smoke in .Europe and USA the proportion of sufferers affected by pneumonia may be much lower than in China.

Report source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/
 
bgm
Posts: 2377
Joined: Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:37 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:09 am

Jouhou wrote:
bgm wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
I suspect it's already too late. We now have a suspected case of community transmission in the USA. That means there are many more infected who are unawares. And they are infecting others.

The response by the chinese has really endangered the whole world. Authoritarian regimes always find a way to do that it seems.


And yet your beloved Trump is downplaying this thing as no big deal. Even the wannabe dictators are doing it too. :sarcastic:


Eh, it's not really the time to prod people about their normal political views. It's better for us all if people from across the political spectrum unify under this cause. Viruses don't have a political preference.

The politicians are scared about economic impacts. They should be, but they're forgetting that if they don't confront the issue directly the economic damage will be even worse. They should be focusing on getting people mentally prepared and working to change their day to day habits to reduce transmission.


I completely agree with you. I just hope the response is sufficient to at least contain/reduce the number of infections.

It's worth noting that Trump fired the pandemic response team in 2018: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump ... emic-team/
Less praying, more hand washing.
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:15 am

Jouhou wrote:
bgm wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
I suspect it's already too late. We now have a suspected case of community transmission in the USA. That means there are many more infected who are unawares. And they are infecting others.

The response by the chinese has really endangered the whole world. Authoritarian regimes always find a way to do that it seems.


And yet your beloved Trump is downplaying this thing as no big deal. Even the wannabe dictators are doing it too. :sarcastic:


Eh, it's not really the time to prod people about their normal political views. It's better for us all if people from across the political spectrum unify under this cause. Viruses don't have a political preference.

The politicians are scared about economic impacts. They should be, but they're forgetting that if they don't confront the issue directly the economic damage will be even worse. They should be focusing on getting people mentally prepared and working to change their day to day habits to reduce transmission.

This I agree with. Too many at this time will not reach across the isle. Both sides only worry about the election.

Get testing before we are in Iran's shoes.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
art
Posts: 3242
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:18 am

Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 04 3,235
Feb 05 3,887
Feb 06 3,694
Feb 07 3,143
Feb 08 3,399
Feb 09 2,656
Feb 10 3,062
Feb 11 2,478
Feb 12 2,015

New cases of confirmed and diagnosed infections

Feb 13 15,152
Feb 14 05,090

New cases of confirmed and suspected infections

Feb 15 04,918
Feb 16 03,927
Feb 17 03,611
Feb 18 03,318
Feb 19 02,934
Feb 20 01,671
Feb 21 02,503
Feb 22 01,758
Feb 23 01,530
Feb 24 01,029
Feb 25 01,038
Feb 26 00,845
Feb 27 00,941

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 04 221,015
Feb 05 252,154
Feb 06 282,813
Feb 07 314,028
Feb 08 345,498
Feb 09 371,904
Feb 10 399,487
Feb 11 428,438
Feb 12 451,462
Feb 13 471,531
Feb 14 493,067
Feb 15 513,183
Feb 16 529,418
Feb 17 546,016
Feb 18 560,901
Feb 19 574,418
Feb 20 589,163
Feb 21 606,037
Feb 22 618,915
Feb 23 628,517
Feb 24 635,531
Feb 25 641,712
Feb 27 652,174

http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/27/c_76975.htm
 
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Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:45 am

So, I've been watching this, I'm not done yet as it's 3 1/2 hours of dry stuff. Event 201, a pandemic response exercise to a SARS-like coronavirus starting in South America with a higher fatality rate but slower spread than this virus. The exercise was done just last year.

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/ ... ideos.html

There are representatives participating in this from the US CDC, China CDC, UPS and Lufthansa (and others not as relevant to this forum). Very interesting to see how national CDCs, airlines, and the shipping industry respond to this hypothetical scenario.
情報
 
art
Posts: 3242
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:26 am

Jouhou wrote:
So, I've been watching this, I'm not done yet as it's 3 1/2 hours of dry stuff. Event 201, a pandemic response exercise to a SARS-like coronavirus starting in South America with a higher fatality rate but slower spread than this virus. The exercise was done just last year.

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/ ... ideos.html

There are representatives participating in this from the US CDC, China CDC, UPS and Lufthansa (and others not as relevant to this forum). Very interesting to see how national CDCs, airlines, and the shipping industry respond to this hypothetical scenario.


Thanks for the pointer. I watched the 12 minute highlights. Loads of good points and proposals raised.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:31 am

Finished watching. My first thoughts, of all organizations present surprisingly it seems China has been the most receptive to implementing suggestions. At the time, not too many months ago, they did not have a system of rapidly sharing the genetic information of novel pathogens. A few months later when this emerged, China did this immediately. There were concerns about the airline industry, China immediately moved to save HNA. There were concerns by the hospitality industry their business would die off, and governments should think of ways to utilize the worst impacted industries. China is using hotels for quarantining fever patients. China also immediately offered massive financing for their industries, and worked specifically to get their medical ppe manufacturers up and running no matter what. China also said their number 1 plan would be to develop monoclonal antibodies from recovered cases.

Everyone else, uh, it remains unclear if they learned much. While given an opportunity to say how his industry might survive, the Lufthansa guy straight up said "we'd need government support". This is an industry that gets crippled by this. No good solutions were proposed. Maybe they can do charter flights for various agencies and groups. I get the impression through, even the big airlines don't have a plan B for this.
情報
 
kalvado
Posts: 2518
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:36 am

Aaron747 wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
I suspect it's already too late. We now have a suspected case of community transmission in the USA. That means there are many more infected who are unawares. And they are infecting others.

The response by the chinese has really endangered the whole world. Authoritarian regimes always find a way to do that it seems.


Not just an authoritarian regime, but a regime that sat on its ass over the last 15 years, while letting the same conditions that started SARS continue.

I hope all of these big foreign corporations dealing with supply chain nightmares are happy with putting so much of their manufacturing in the PRC basket.


The irony is ostensibly they have the most ability to curtail consumption of high risk meat with all the authoritarian means at their disposal. Oh well.

High risk meat? Mad cow disease come to mind as an example. But some cultures never learn...

Hunting is one of ancient human behaviors, literally shaping development of homo sapiens as species. Try to keep that in mind
 
melpax
Posts: 1983
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:06 am

Australian PM has ordered authorities to plan for a major outbreak. We've been lucky so far, there were a few cases last month with some Chinese tourists, but most cases have been people already in quarantine after evacuation from Hubei & the Diamond Princess.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/fede ... 5452c.html

Have just been to my local supermarket, totally out of hand sanitiser. I've been using my carry-on sized bottles after using the train.
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
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Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:18 am

melpax wrote:
Australian PM has ordered authorities to plan for a major outbreak. We've been lucky so far, there were a few cases last month with some Chinese tourists, but most cases have been people already in quarantine after evacuation from Hubei & the Diamond Princess.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/fede ... 5452c.html

Have just been to my local supermarket, totally out of hand sanitiser. I've been using my carry-on sized bottles after using the train.


I've heard Australian retailers had been out of it for weeks. Can you order from the US? I guess because of our corn and ethanol industries no matter how cleaned out the shelves are they're stocked with even more sanitizer varieties the next week. Our supply seems infinite. At least so far.
情報
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1844
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:55 am

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/coronav ... otely.html

South Korea confirmed 505 new cases of the coronavirus on Thursday, Yonhap news agency reported, bringing the total number of infections nationwide to 1,766.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2518
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:17 pm

Jouhou wrote:
melpax wrote:
Australian PM has ordered authorities to plan for a major outbreak. We've been lucky so far, there were a few cases last month with some Chinese tourists, but most cases have been people already in quarantine after evacuation from Hubei & the Diamond Princess.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/fede ... 5452c.html

Have just been to my local supermarket, totally out of hand sanitiser. I've been using my carry-on sized bottles after using the train.


I've heard Australian retailers had been out of it for weeks. Can you order from the US? I guess because of our corn and ethanol industries no matter how cleaned out the shelves are they're stocked with even more sanitizer varieties the next week. Our supply seems infinite. At least so far.

Honestly speaking, there are lots of desinfection options available. Something like wipes saturated with alcohol in a ziplock bag - some strong spirit, vodka for less odor or gin for a more fancy one. Add a few droplets of bleach for more professional scent, or whatever perfume is preferred.
With expected shortage of industrial products, homemade substitutes can be usable as well.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7973
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:29 pm

kalvado wrote:
Honestly speaking, there are lots of desinfection options available. Something like wipes saturated with alcohol in a ziplock bag - some strong spirit, vodka for less odor or gin for a more fancy one. Add a few droplets of bleach for more professional scent, or whatever perfume is preferred.
With expected shortage of industrial products, homemade substitutes can be usable as well.


While it may be sound medical advice, logistics is not that simple. Anything above a couple of percentage points of alcohol is going to create other problems.

Image a traffic stop with vodka-soaked wipes in a Ziploc.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2518
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:41 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Honestly speaking, there are lots of desinfection options available. Something like wipes saturated with alcohol in a ziplock bag - some strong spirit, vodka for less odor or gin for a more fancy one. Add a few droplets of bleach for more professional scent, or whatever perfume is preferred.
With expected shortage of industrial products, homemade substitutes can be usable as well.


While it may be sound medical advice, logistics is not that simple. Anything above a couple of percentage points of alcohol is going to create other problems.

Image a traffic stop with vodka-soaked wipes in a Ziploc.

Well, rubbing alcohol in us - IPA - is fully legal for anything. Denatured alcohol is available in many countries. Bleach will make things smell different, and arguably turn things denatured. Depends on how far you want to go.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7973
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:01 pm

kalvado wrote:
Well, rubbing alcohol in us - IPA - is fully legal for anything. Denatured alcohol is available in many countries. Bleach will make things smell different, and arguably turn things denatured. Depends on how far you want to go.


Good suggestions kalvado. I have a small can of Denatured alcohol, which I use to clean violin bow hair. BTW is the expiration date on rubbing alcohol and sanitizer really matter. I have a family size sanitizer bought years back.
 
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einsteinboricua
Posts: 7977
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:53 pm

The market clearly doesn't seem to be confident that the virus spread can be slowed and contained. Futures this morning for the US point to yet another triple digit loss. And Trump's press conference yesterday doesn't seem to have allayed concerns either.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3307
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:57 pm

Jouhou wrote:
melpax wrote:
Australian PM has ordered authorities to plan for a major outbreak. We've been lucky so far, there were a few cases last month with some Chinese tourists, but most cases have been people already in quarantine after evacuation from Hubei & the Diamond Princess.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/fede ... 5452c.html

Have just been to my local supermarket, totally out of hand sanitiser. I've been using my carry-on sized bottles after using the train.


I've heard Australian retailers had been out of it for weeks. Can you order from the US? I guess because of our corn and ethanol industries no matter how cleaned out the shelves are they're stocked with even more sanitizer varieties the next week. Our supply seems infinite. At least so far.


The only thing that seems to be consistently out here in US is surgical mask. Can't help that most of US stock of those are made in China...

I concurred with hand sanitizer - I could have bought a box load of them from supermarket yesterday. Same with disinfecting wipes.

Jouhou wrote:
Finished watching. My first thoughts, of all organizations present surprisingly it seems China has been the most receptive to implementing suggestions. At the time, not too many months ago, they did not have a system of rapidly sharing the genetic information of novel pathogens. A few months later when this emerged, China did this immediately. There were concerns about the airline industry, China immediately moved to save HNA. There were concerns by the hospitality industry their business would die off, and governments should think of ways to utilize the worst impacted industries. China is using hotels for quarantining fever patients. China also immediately offered massive financing for their industries, and worked specifically to get their medical ppe manufacturers up and running no matter what. China also said their number 1 plan would be to develop monoclonal antibodies from recovered cases.


For all the criticism of China (including some from me), one has to admit that their draconian response did work. It could have been a lot worse if they still let people travel around during Lunar New Year and beyond.

Meanwhile, Japan finally announced a suspension of all schools, beginning next week:
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/ ... lfKfjJKh7g

Keep in mind, in Japan (Hokkaido to be specific) there was community spreading among young students.

EDIT:
einsteinboricua wrote:
The market clearly doesn't seem to be confident that the virus spread can be slowed and contained. Futures this morning for the US point to yet another triple digit loss. And Trump's press conference yesterday doesn't seem to have allayed concerns either.


Because his speech gave zero confidence that US is truly ready? In typical Trump faction, he just talks a lot, but shown zero evidence of any real implementation or any actual planning.

The Italian outbreak IMHO is what really spook the market - it came from almost nowhere and is threatening to spread further to the rest of Europe. There's an Iranian outbreak that came from nowhere also, but that affect Middle East more than US economy. The South Korean outbreak is tracable (to Sincheonji Church), but will affect the South Korean economy (and thus, tech sector). Japan is another unknown waiting to explode.

At least there's a giant ocean that separate US from the major regions of outbreak. I can imagine somebody that had been to Northern Italy eventually cause an outbreak somewhere in US, though.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7973
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:10 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
The market clearly doesn't seem to be confident that the virus spread can be slowed and contained. Futures this morning for the US point to yet another triple digit loss. And Trump's press conference yesterday doesn't seem to have allayed concerns either.


Once people knew Pence is in charge, this thing got real.
 
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casinterest
Posts: 10231
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:13 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
The market clearly doesn't seem to be confident that the virus spread can be slowed and contained. Futures this morning for the US point to yet another triple digit loss. And Trump's press conference yesterday doesn't seem to have allayed concerns either.


Well, the world has been on the tipping point of a recession, and this is the catalyst. Hopefully panic will subside, but that can really only happen if effective treatments and vaccines are found if the mortality rate remains this high. Still too much unknown at this point. There can be another thread on Trump and US healthcare policies I am not exactly thrilled with Mike Pence leading a task force related to health care though. His Record in this area is not good.

https://slate.com/technology/2020/02/mi ... ecord.html
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 7977
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:20 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Once people knew Pence is in charge, this thing got real.

casinterest wrote:
I am not exactly thrilled with Mike Pence leading a task force related to health care though. His Record in this area is not good.

Thankfully, there is ALWAYS a Tweet.

I don't think markets care too much that Pence is not qualified; rather, they're more concerned with disruptions to the supply chain. If world economies show a massive slowdown, I think recession fears may become more prominent.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."

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